UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026 · Bantamweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Next Fight
Age 23
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 5' 6"
Reach 65"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Elijah Smith
4.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.96 SApM
46.0% Str. Def.
2.98 TD Avg
53.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - You Su-young
2.15 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
2.01 SApM
68.0% Str. Def.
4.26 TD Avg
47.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Elijah Smith - Fight History
WIN vs You Su-young
Submission R2 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elijah Smith 1 16 of 27 59% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:35
You Su-young 0 3 of 3 100% 21 of 27 4 of 8 50% 0 0 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elijah Smith 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:19
You Su-young 0 1 of 1 100% 18 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:42
2 Elijah Smith 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
You Su-young 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elijah Smith 16 of 27 59% 14 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 3 of 3 8 of 11
You Su-young 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elijah Smith 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
You Su-young 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Elijah Smith 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 11
You Su-young 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith but is worried about takedown defense against a relentless wrestler. He notes that Smith is more powerful, faster, and well-rounded, but Su-young's constant takedown threats could be problematic. He thinks Vegas may not reward wrestling, so Smith could win even if taken down multiple times. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at props.

"I am picking Elijah Smith here. I'm probably not going to bet money line or parlay him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, believing Smith will stuff takedowns and be the better striker. He acknowledges Smith's takedown defense (57%) is a concern but notes his improved submission defense and ability to battle adversity. He favors Smith's volume, power, and cleaner striking on the feet.

"give me Smith here. Give me Smith here to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Cody picks Smith, citing his youth, athleticism, and wrestling. He notes Su-young's age and limited ceiling. He expects Smith to win a close decision or get a finish.

Smith by decision
"It's Elijah Smith and uh I think it goes to decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Connor also picks Smith, emphasizing that Smith has real physicality and the rumblings of a natural pocket fighter. He notes that You's wrestling is legit but Smith has the physicality to force scrambles and may shut down takedowns. Connor sees Smith's potential as higher.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

James picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, but admits he hasn't done enough tape study and is not very confident. He notes Smith's boxing advantage and athleticism but worries about his fight IQ and tendency to engage in grappling. He believes Smith can win if he keeps the fight on the feet.

"my official prediction will be Elijah Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host favors Elijah Smith due to his speed, strength, and well-roundedness. He expects Smith to defend Su-young's grappling and keep the fight standing, where his striking combinations and power will be decisive. He predicts Smith will land the more damaging shots and win a decision, noting that Smith's grappling defense and ability to counter leg kicks will be key.

"I think Smith is the faster, stronger fighter. I think you'll be able to land his combinations and really hurt you throughout this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

Paul leans Su-young as a dog, citing his experience and ring IQ. He thinks Su-young can exploit Smith's mistakes and win a close decision. He notes the fight is tricky.

"tempted uh to say another dogger pass spot here, just edging it out, being way too close for comfort."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Elijah Smith

The Guru picks Elijah Smith, rating his win over Vince Morales and noting his patience and size advantage (6-inch reach). He thinks Smith's athleticism and ability to go three rounds will overcome Su-young, who has fought close decisions against lesser competition. He predicts a decision, possibly a late TKO.

"I've got Elijah Smith taking this one... by decision. 30-27, maybe even a second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Elijah Smith, noting that Smith has real physicality and natural pocket awareness, while You is a finished product with less dynamism. He believes Smith can stop enough takedowns to win two out of three rounds, even if he gives up some takedowns. Zane sees Smith's potential as higher than You's.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
KO R1 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dolidze vs. Hernandez · Aug 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elijah Smith 0 37 of 46 80% 61 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:49
Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elijah Smith 0 37 of 46 80% 61 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:49
Toshiomi Kazama 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elijah Smith 37 of 46 80% 35 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 36 of 43
Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elijah Smith 37 of 46 80% 35 of 44 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 36 of 43
Toshiomi Kazama 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a good grappler with fast hands and solid power. He notes Toshiomi Kazama is a BJJ nerd with a questionable chin. Angelo thinks Smith will run through Kazama, as this is a tune-up fight for the prospect. He acknowledges the -500 odds are high but trusts Smith.

"Elijah's the pick. I'm very confident here. And minus 500."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady is very confident in Elijah Smith, calling him a well-rounded fighter with a massive striking advantage over Kazama, whom he considers the worst striker in the division. He notes Smith's cardio has improved and he can grapple as well. Brady believes Smith will knock out Kazama early, predicting a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think Smith knocks him out and I think he knocks him out probably pretty early. Give me Elijah Smith to win this fight and win it by first round knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host acknowledges Kazama's high-level BJJ but believes he struggles to get fights to the ground and will struggle even more against Smith. He expects Smith to use good movement, speed, and striking to line up a big knockout victory.

by KO
"Look for Smith to utilize good movement, speed, and striking and eventually lining up a big knockout victory to earn that win over Kazama."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith, calling Kazama a fighter who shouldn't be in the UFC. He notes Smith's close fight with Vince Morales showed he can battle through adversity. He expects Smith to handle Kazama, though he's not sure if Smith will become a top prospect.

Bet on Elijah Smith fight time over 6.75 minutes as part of a parlay
"I think Elijah Smith is going to win against Toshi Kazama."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Rodrigues · Feb 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vince Morales 0 40 of 86 46% 42 of 90 2 of 4 50% 3 2 3:07
Elijah Smith 0 40 of 97 41% 52 of 110 3 of 4 75% 1 2 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vince Morales 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elijah Smith 0 19 of 43 44% 19 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
2 Vince Morales 0 4 of 5 80% 6 of 8 2 of 3 66% 2 2 2:02
Elijah Smith 0 1 of 5 20% 7 of 12 1 of 1 100% 1 2 2:08
3 Vince Morales 0 17 of 41 41% 17 of 42 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:05
Elijah Smith 0 20 of 49 40% 26 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vince Morales 40 of 86 46% 30 of 74 8 of 10 2 of 2 36 of 81 4 of 5 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 40 of 97 41% 29 of 81 2 of 3 9 of 13 37 of 94 3 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vince Morales 19 of 40 47% 13 of 33 4 of 5 2 of 2 17 of 38 2 of 2 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 19 of 43 44% 13 of 33 1 of 2 5 of 8 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Vince Morales 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vince Morales 17 of 41 41% 13 of 36 4 of 5 0 of 0 15 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
Elijah Smith 20 of 49 40% 15 of 43 1 of 1 4 of 5 18 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Vince Morales vs. Elijah Smith
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Smith (-180), Morales (+150)

Round 1
Speed kills at the lower divisions, and if their pasts are any indication, Morales (16-8, 3-6 UFC) and Smith (7-1, 0-0 UFC) would like nothing more than to clock out early and go home today. The former, currently on his second stint with the promotion, did just what any savvy fighter should do after a release: go to the regional circuit, rack up a bunch of wins in rapid succession and get a call back to the big leagues. In less than two years, Morales was in, out and in again. Referee Mark Smith will know first whether the decision to bring him back to the roster was a good idea. Gloves are not touched, and Morales is instead the aggressor as he backs Smith up to the cage. Smith presses back with a jab, and Morales dodges and moves while staying in Smith’s face. Smith prods his jabs to chain in an uppercut, snapping Morales’ head back and surprising him. Morales gathers his thoughts and keeps advancing, not cutting his foe off and drawing a finger wag from the newcomer. Smith lets go with a body kick, and when he slides away, Morales kicks him square in the groin. The clacking echo cutting through the arena, Smith collapses to the mat in serious trouble. Smith writhes in pain and slams his fist on the mat several times, and he returns to his feet a minute into the recovery time. Smith lowers himself back to a crouch as he is still greatly struggling to get his wind back, and referee Smith is attentive and giving the fighter updates as to his time. After two minutes and 45 seconds, Smith is ready to fight and claps hands with his foe to restart. Morales gets back to where he left off with pressure, and Smith sits down on a clean left hand counter that makes Morales’ nose match his red hair and shorts. Smith times a jump knee counter to clip Morales on the way in, missing by a matter of millimeters. Morales continues crowding the newcomer, until Smith frames off and his fingers slide into the eye socket. Referee Smith calls in the physician to check on Morales’ condition and help clear his vision, who complains that the poke affected both eyes. Right before the restart, Morales mentions that they are even, and they resume fighting with 2:15 to go in the round. Smith sticks out several sharp jabs to intercept Morales, only to get caught with two right hooks that shake him up. While Smith counters with a check left hook, Morales greets him with a right hand. The jabs of Smith have opened a cut around Morales’ mouth, but he pays it no mind as he hooks his right hand around the jab. Morales jabs his way into a counterattack, and Smith backs him away with a pair of chopping leg kicks. Smith is warned for outstretched fingers again, and Morales may have suffered another uncalled eye poke as he is struggling to blink out his left eye. While he is dealing with that, Smith shoots for an easy takedown he uses to throw “Vandetta” to the floor. What he doesn’t have is time, as the round wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith

Round 2
The second round begins where the first left off, with Morales directly in Smith’s face putting heat on him. Morales does not crowd in recklessly, keeping his guard up to block a head kick or oncoming jabs. As Smith circles away, Morales catches him with a left hand that forces him to stick around in the clinch. Smith grabs hold of his foe and lifts him up like a Country Breakfast, embodying his inner Matt Hughes to carry his opponent around the cage to his corner. Smith scrambles to take the back, and he wraps up a rear-naked choke that is more of a face crank. Morales works his neck free and scrambles with a kimura sweep attempt to turn himself over. Smith stands up and finds himself stuck on his back suddenly when Morales dumps him to the floor. Morales snakes his arms around the neck to tie up a brabo choke, and he steps over to the side to try to complete the submission. Smith lays flat on his stomach before exploding the wrong direction, keeping himself calm and not exposing himself to greater danger. Morales keeps the choke wrapped up around the neck even as Smith wisely shifts through it, and the younger fighter survives the sub and claims top position. When Morales attempts to stand, Smith looks to drag him down from behind, and this results in Morales setting up another brabo choke. Morales drives a few knees into the chin before rolling all the way through for a Japanese necktie with his legs and arms wrapped up to lock up the unorthodox maneuver. Smith works his way out of the submission and stands up, slapping Morales on the side of the head and rolling through an attempted Morales throw to control him from behind at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morales
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Morales

Round 3
The fighters come out firing to open the last round, with Smith whiffing on haymakers immediately. Morales walks forward and feints to draw out reactions, and he strings combinations together as Smith does the same. The pace wanes as Smith does not appear to land these big strikes often, with his sharp, direct strikes far more effective. Smith rips an uppercut that shreds a cut on Morales’ nose, and he times the strike to shoot in for a double that puts Morales on his seat. While Morales works his way up, his nose is bent entirely the wrong direction and leaking all over the mat. There is no quit despite punches likely hurting far more than usual on the shattered nose, and Morales takes them flush and still cruises forward. Morales shoots for a takedown, forces a counter shot and lays on top of Smith’s back to go for a Japanese or perhaps Peruvian variation of the necktie. Morales bails on this sub and sways around to the back, but Smith explodes his way back up. Smith puts fists on face, blood spraying and Morales trying desperately to keep a stiff upper lip. Smith pokes and prods with jabs, and Morales points at the floor as if to lure Smith into a defense-free brawl. When Smith does not oblige, Morales chases after him lobbing big strikes at him. Smith defends a suplex by landing on his hands, and Morales shockingly grabs him from behind and wraps an unorthodox side-naked-slash-bulldog choke under the chin. Smith’s eyes go wide, as the choke is tight even though no hooks are in. Knowing time is on his side, Smith works Morales to the body until time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Morales)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Smith (29-28 Smith)

The Official Result
Elijah Smith def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith based on his non-stop wrestling, but he is hesitant because Smith is a UFC debutant with only eight fights. He notes that Vince Morales is a dog and has shown toughness. He does not bet this fight because of the uncertainty, but he leans Smith due to his wrestling.

"I am going to pick Elijah because of the wrestling specifically and because of the fact that I know he'll just shoot and then right behind it shoot again but I'm likely going to avoid betting here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vince Morales

Big Brady picks Morales as a dog, arguing Smith is too green with poor cardio and unproven striking. Morales has better cardio and striking, and Smith has slowed down in multiple fights. He notes the line is moving toward Morales, indicating public agreement.

Morales by decision
"give me Vince Morales here as a dog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2025 (fight day)
Vince Morales

Morales is more well-rounded and experienced. He will wear Smith down in the striking realm and eventually find a submission in the second or third round. Smith has the hardware but Morales gets the vet lesson win.

Morales by submission, round 2 or 3
"I think Morales will be able to wear Smith down stay competitive in the striking realm and eventually get to a submission game... look for Morales to wear Smith down and eventually find the submission in the second or third …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The MMA Guru picks Elijah Smith over Vince Morales, citing Smith's prospect potential and impressive Contender Series performance. He notes Morales is a tricky veteran but old, and Smith showed grappling ability despite some weaknesses. He believes Smith's talent and UFC contract motivation will carry him.

"I'm going to go with Elijah Smith the prospect over Vince Morales"
You Su-young - Fight History
LOSS vs Elijah Smith
Submission R2 1:04 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Elijah Smith 1 16 of 27 59% 18 of 29 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:35
You Su-young 0 3 of 3 100% 21 of 27 4 of 8 50% 0 0 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Elijah Smith 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:19
You Su-young 0 1 of 1 100% 18 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 2:42
2 Elijah Smith 1 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:16
You Su-young 0 2 of 2 100% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Elijah Smith 16 of 27 59% 14 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 13 3 of 3 8 of 11
You Su-young 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Elijah Smith 3 of 6 50% 1 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
You Su-young 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Elijah Smith 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 8 2 of 2 8 of 11
You Su-young 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith but is worried about takedown defense against a relentless wrestler. He notes that Smith is more powerful, faster, and well-rounded, but Su-young's constant takedown threats could be problematic. He thinks Vegas may not reward wrestling, so Smith could win even if taken down multiple times. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at props.

"I am picking Elijah Smith here. I'm probably not going to bet money line or parlay him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, believing Smith will stuff takedowns and be the better striker. He acknowledges Smith's takedown defense (57%) is a concern but notes his improved submission defense and ability to battle adversity. He favors Smith's volume, power, and cleaner striking on the feet.

"give me Smith here. Give me Smith here to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Cody picks Smith, citing his youth, athleticism, and wrestling. He notes Su-young's age and limited ceiling. He expects Smith to win a close decision or get a finish.

Smith by decision
"It's Elijah Smith and uh I think it goes to decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Connor also picks Smith, emphasizing that Smith has real physicality and the rumblings of a natural pocket fighter. He notes that You's wrestling is legit but Smith has the physicality to force scrambles and may shut down takedowns. Connor sees Smith's potential as higher.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

James picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, but admits he hasn't done enough tape study and is not very confident. He notes Smith's boxing advantage and athleticism but worries about his fight IQ and tendency to engage in grappling. He believes Smith can win if he keeps the fight on the feet.

"my official prediction will be Elijah Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host favors Elijah Smith due to his speed, strength, and well-roundedness. He expects Smith to defend Su-young's grappling and keep the fight standing, where his striking combinations and power will be decisive. He predicts Smith will land the more damaging shots and win a decision, noting that Smith's grappling defense and ability to counter leg kicks will be key.

"I think Smith is the faster, stronger fighter. I think you'll be able to land his combinations and really hurt you throughout this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

Paul leans Su-young as a dog, citing his experience and ring IQ. He thinks Su-young can exploit Smith's mistakes and win a close decision. He notes the fight is tricky.

"tempted uh to say another dogger pass spot here, just edging it out, being way too close for comfort."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Elijah Smith

The Guru picks Elijah Smith, rating his win over Vince Morales and noting his patience and size advantage (6-inch reach). He thinks Smith's athleticism and ability to go three rounds will overcome Su-young, who has fought close decisions against lesser competition. He predicts a decision, possibly a late TKO.

"I've got Elijah Smith taking this one... by decision. 30-27, maybe even a second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Elijah Smith, noting that Smith has real physicality and natural pocket awareness, while You is a finished product with less dynamism. He believes Smith can stop enough takedowns to win two out of three rounds, even if he gives up some takedowns. Zane sees Smith's potential as higher than You's.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
WIN vs Xiao Long
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
You Su-young 0 68 of 214 31% 81 of 229 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Xiao Long 0 58 of 110 52% 66 of 120 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 You Su-young 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Xiao Long 0 10 of 15 66% 12 of 17 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:03
2 You Su-young 0 16 of 78 20% 18 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Xiao Long 0 25 of 50 50% 25 of 52 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:03
3 You Su-young 0 41 of 101 40% 52 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Xiao Long 0 23 of 45 51% 29 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
You Su-young 68 of 214 31% 53 of 169 7 of 21 8 of 24 38 of 173 30 of 41 0 of 0
Xiao Long 58 of 110 52% 44 of 94 10 of 11 4 of 5 47 of 95 11 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 You Su-young 11 of 35 31% 6 of 18 1 of 4 4 of 13 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Xiao Long 10 of 15 66% 6 of 10 3 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 You Su-young 16 of 78 20% 9 of 57 4 of 11 3 of 10 15 of 77 1 of 1 0 of 0
Xiao Long 25 of 50 50% 18 of 42 4 of 5 3 of 3 23 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 You Su-young 41 of 101 40% 38 of 94 2 of 6 1 of 1 12 of 61 29 of 40 0 of 0
Xiao Long 23 of 45 51% 20 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 34 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
You Su-young

Angelo is confident in You Su-young, calling him a nonstop wrestler who shoots takedowns early and is aggressive on the ground. He notes that Xiao Long is a grappler but not particularly dangerous, and that You Su-young is better almost everywhere. He expects a grappling match and leans You Su-young regardless of whether it becomes a striking match or a grappling match.

"I'm going to lean Su Young. If we have a grappling match where they're actually shooting takedowns and stuff, I'm also going to leave towards Su Young. So, I'm picking Su Yong Yu. Pretty straightforward."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Xiao Long

Big Brady picks Xiao Long as an underdog, citing his good defensive wrestling and anti-grappling. He notes that Xiao Long stuffed 7 of 9 takedowns against Chungho Lee, who is a strong grappler, and that Xiao Long is the better striker with improved striking. He believes Su-young Yu will struggle to get takedowns and that Xiao Long will win a decision on the feet.

Xiao Long by decision
"I like Longha here to win. The reason being is I think he has very good defensive wrestling, very good anti-grappling... I'll go long Xiao to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Xiao Long

The host is a big fan of You Su-young but thinks he will struggle to get the fight to the ground. This will allow Xiao Long to dictate the pace in the striking realm with high volume, winning most pocket exchanges. The host predicts Xiao Long will eventually find a knockout within two and a half rounds.

win by KO/TKO, inside 2.5 rounds
"I think he's going to struggle to get this fight to the ground, and that's going to allow Long Xiao to dictate the pace in the striking realm, putting on a high volume, winning most of the pocket exchanges, and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
You Su-young

The MMA Guru picks You Su-young because he has proven himself against non-Asian competition, specifically outgrappling an American with a wrestling background. He views You Su-young as a specialist with a clear strength, while Xiao Long appears to be a well-rounded regional scrapper. He also notes that Xiao Long's split decision win over a Korean fighter on Road to UFC doesn't impress him, as that opponent didn't amount to much.

"I just think Su Yang Yui has been proven against a non-Asian... I think he's more specialized. I think he's better at one thing than Xiaoong is at a couple different things."
WIN vs AJ Cunningham
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
You Su-young 0 18 of 32 56% 77 of 96 5 of 10 50% 1 0 7:54
AJ Cunningham 0 16 of 52 30% 19 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 You Su-young 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 24 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:26
AJ Cunningham 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 You Su-young 0 10 of 18 55% 36 of 47 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:07
AJ Cunningham 0 6 of 19 31% 9 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 You Su-young 0 1 of 4 25% 21 of 25 2 of 4 50% 1 0 3:21
AJ Cunningham 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
You Su-young 18 of 32 56% 8 of 21 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 1
AJ Cunningham 16 of 52 30% 11 of 45 1 of 1 4 of 6 16 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 You Su-young 7 of 10 70% 1 of 4 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AJ Cunningham 9 of 26 34% 5 of 20 1 of 1 3 of 5 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 You Su-young 10 of 18 55% 6 of 13 2 of 2 2 of 3 10 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 1
AJ Cunningham 6 of 19 31% 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 You Su-young 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AJ Cunningham 1 of 7 14% 0 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
You Su-young

Angelo picks You Su-young over AJ Cunningham. He notes that You is a relentless wrestler who will shoot takedowns constantly, while Cunningham's takedown defense is poor. He sees no value in the moneyline but suggests round line or takedown props.

Round line prop, takedown props
"You takes down AJ I think it's pretty straightforward no real value in the money line here but we could make a dollar or two on the round line prop Tak down props."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
You Su-young

Big Brady picks You Su-young, noting that AJ Cunningham has taken severe damage in recent fights and is likely not UFC caliber. He describes You as a wrestler with good cardio and slick jiu-jitsu (nicknamed 'Yu Jitsu'), who will take Cunningham down and control him. Brady expects a decision win for You, though he mentions a possible finish if Cunningham's weight cut is tough.

You by decision
"I like you to get it done and I'll take him to win by by decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Elijah Smith, citing his athleticism and wrestling background. He notes that Kazama has a dangerous submission game but has been knocked down and finished in losses. He believes Smith's power and wrestling will be too much, though he is wary of submission threats. He considers Smith by TKO as a prop.

Smith by TKO at -200
"Smith will be the pick for me. Maybe I'll have his KO prop in some uh in some greasy parlays over the course of the week, but um yeah, it's it's a little bit wide. Um I expect him to …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

The host believes You will utilize his grappling advantage to get the fight to the ground and twist up Cunningham into a pretzel. He expects You to win with relative ease by submission.

submission
"I believe you will utilize his grappling Advantage here eventually getting this fight to the ground and pretty much twisting up Cunningham into a pretzel I think Yu wins this match up with relative ease and I think he ends …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Smith, noting that Kazama has been knocked down in all his UFC losses and that Smith has power. He believes Smith will avoid submissions and ground and pound for a finish. He is concerned about Smith's inexperience but still expects a win.

"I think the world of Elijah Harris or sorry, Elijah Smith, uh his his dad, Gilbert Smith, Ultimate Fighter veteran, Bellator veteran, always going to have a good game plan for him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
You Su-young

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks You Su-young, despite being tempted by AJ Cunningham as an underdog. He notes Cunningham trains with Bryce Mitchell and has potential, but lacks momentum and was badly beaten by Ludovic Klein. He thinks Su-young is underrated, coming through Road to UFC, and has good momentum. However, he admits he doesn't understand why Su-young is a 7-1 favorite and sees value on Cunningham, but ultimately goes with Su-young.

Su-young is a 7-1 favorite; Cunningham has value as an underdog.
"I'm going to go Su Yu I'm going to go Su Yu but I think there is a lot of value on AJ Cunningham because he there's potential there but he just needs to get the ball rolling"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
You Su-young 0 9 of 72 12% 48 of 114 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Baergeng Jieleyisi 0 42 of 87 48% 85 of 131 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 You Su-young 0 1 of 14 7% 18 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Baergeng Jieleyisi 0 9 of 15 60% 42 of 48 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:29
2 You Su-young 0 5 of 28 17% 19 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Baergeng Jieleyisi 0 16 of 34 47% 26 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:17
3 You Su-young 0 3 of 30 10% 11 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Baergeng Jieleyisi 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
You Su-young 9 of 72 12% 4 of 63 4 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Baergeng Jieleyisi 42 of 87 48% 28 of 71 4 of 6 10 of 10 36 of 77 3 of 4 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 You Su-young 1 of 14 7% 0 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Baergeng Jieleyisi 9 of 15 60% 7 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 5
2 You Su-young 5 of 28 17% 2 of 23 3 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Baergeng Jieleyisi 16 of 34 47% 10 of 28 1 of 1 5 of 5 16 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 You Su-young 3 of 30 10% 2 of 27 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Baergeng Jieleyisi 17 of 38 44% 11 of 30 2 of 4 4 of 4 15 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Baergeng Jieleyisi

Angelo picks the underdog Baergeng Jieleyisi, noting You Su-young's sloppy wrestling and one-dimensional game. He acknowledges Jieleyisi's long legs make him easy to take down but praises his cross-face and knees on entries. He admits the fight could go either way and won't bet on it.

"I'm going to pick the dog here I'm picking Janus"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

Big Brady picks You Su-young to win by decision. He emphasizes You's wrestling, averaging six takedowns per 15 minutes in his Road to UFC fights, and believes he will dictate where the fight takes place. He expects a scrambly grappling match that goes to a split decision, similar to You's last fight. Brady thinks Jieleyisi can be taken down and makes mistakes on the mat.

"I like the the wrestling of you the willingness to get the fight down to the mat so I'll take Sue young you to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Baergeng Jieleyisi

Cody picks the Korean fighter, citing his more refined grappling and experience against tougher competition. He notes that both are grapplers with low volume, but the Korean has fought better opponents and shown more polish. He expects a close split decision and leans toward the Korean due to his strength and clinch work.

"I will actually take the Korean fighter I think he looks a little more refined a little more polished"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Baergeng Jieleyisi

Daniel Vreeland considers both fighters low-level but gives the edge to Jieleyisi (referred to as Junal) because he is taller, longer, and has better striking. He notes that Su-young has flashy moves but lacks effectiveness, and Jieleyisi is more well-rounded. He picks Jieleyisi as the underdog to win the Road to UFC.

"I'mma pick junal junli to come out here and uh win the road to UFC"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Baergeng Jieleyisi

Paul also leans toward the Korean fighter, noting that Korean fighters generally have solid grappling and physicality. He admits it's a blind pick but trusts the Korean development system. He expects a close decision and sees value in the underdog.

"I lead towards K to win the match up so yeah I could see is that ignorant yeah maybe but we'll see come Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Baergeng Jieleyisi

The MMA Guru picks Baergeng Jieleyisi (referred to as Balin Jen) over You Su-young. He lists several of Baergeng's wins, including over Naken Nakanishi, which sold him. He acknowledges You Su-young is a good prospect but favors Baergeng's resume and recent win over Shin Nosov.

"I'm going to go with Balin Jen let's go with him to win"
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Angelo picks Elijah Smith but is worried about takedown defense against a relentless wrestler. He notes that Smith is more powerful, faster, and well-rounded, but Su-young's constant takedown threats could be problematic. He thinks Vegas may not reward wrestling, so Smith could win even if taken down multiple times. He is not betting the moneyline but may look at props.

"I am picking Elijah Smith here. I'm probably not going to bet money line or parlay him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Big Brady picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, believing Smith will stuff takedowns and be the better striker. He acknowledges Smith's takedown defense (57%) is a concern but notes his improved submission defense and ability to battle adversity. He favors Smith's volume, power, and cleaner striking on the feet.

"give me Smith here. Give me Smith here to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

Cody picks Smith, citing his youth, athleticism, and wrestling. He notes Su-young's age and limited ceiling. He expects Smith to win a close decision or get a finish.

Smith by decision
"It's Elijah Smith and uh I think it goes to decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Connor also picks Smith, emphasizing that Smith has real physicality and the rumblings of a natural pocket fighter. He notes that You's wrestling is legit but Smith has the physicality to force scrambles and may shut down takedowns. Connor sees Smith's potential as higher.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

James picks Elijah Smith to win by decision, but admits he hasn't done enough tape study and is not very confident. He notes Smith's boxing advantage and athleticism but worries about his fight IQ and tendency to engage in grappling. He believes Smith can win if he keeps the fight on the feet.

"my official prediction will be Elijah Smith."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Elijah Smith

The host favors Elijah Smith due to his speed, strength, and well-roundedness. He expects Smith to defend Su-young's grappling and keep the fight standing, where his striking combinations and power will be decisive. He predicts Smith will land the more damaging shots and win a decision, noting that Smith's grappling defense and ability to counter leg kicks will be key.

"I think Smith is the faster, stronger fighter. I think you'll be able to land his combinations and really hurt you throughout this matchup."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
You Su-young

Paul leans Su-young as a dog, citing his experience and ring IQ. He thinks Su-young can exploit Smith's mistakes and win a close decision. He notes the fight is tricky.

"tempted uh to say another dogger pass spot here, just edging it out, being way too close for comfort."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Elijah Smith

The Guru picks Elijah Smith, rating his win over Vince Morales and noting his patience and size advantage (6-inch reach). He thinks Smith's athleticism and ability to go three rounds will overcome Su-young, who has fought close decisions against lesser competition. He predicts a decision, possibly a late TKO.

"I've got Elijah Smith taking this one... by decision. 30-27, maybe even a second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Elijah Smith

Zane picks Elijah Smith, noting that Smith has real physicality and natural pocket awareness, while You is a finished product with less dynamism. He believes Smith can stop enough takedowns to win two out of three rounds, even if he gives up some takedowns. Zane sees Smith's potential as higher than You's.

Smith opened at -250, currently -200; You opened at +210, currently +170
"Yeah, I'll take Smith very well, but clearly has actual potential. So young you more of a finished product, but has less, uh, dynamism overall."