UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 2"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 27
Height 6' 5"
Reach 78"
Weight 260 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Vitor Petrino
3.24 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.71 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
2.6 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
79.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Steven Asplund
10.05 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
6.64 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Vitor Petrino - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 92 of 161 57% 92 of 162 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:17
Steven Asplund 1 61 of 158 38% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
Steven Asplund 1 20 of 45 44% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Vitor Petrino 0 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Steven Asplund 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 92 of 161 57% 59 of 126 18 of 18 15 of 17 92 of 160 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 61 of 158 38% 48 of 140 4 of 8 9 of 10 58 of 154 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 19 of 37 51% 14 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 41 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Vitor Petrino 34 of 52 65% 25 of 42 3 of 3 6 of 7 34 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 14 of 50 28% 12 of 45 1 of 3 1 of 2 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 39 of 72 54% 20 of 52 13 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 27 of 63 42% 22 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
KO R3 0:26 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 2 31 of 54 57% 33 of 61 1 of 6 16% 0 0 3:03
Thomas Petersen 0 16 of 35 45% 41 of 62 0 of 8 0% 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 1 13 of 20 65% 15 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:42
Thomas Petersen 0 1 of 5 20% 22 of 27 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:58
2 Vitor Petrino 0 14 of 28 50% 14 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:20
Thomas Petersen 0 13 of 28 46% 17 of 33 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:08
3 Vitor Petrino 1 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Thomas Petersen 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 31 of 54 57% 25 of 46 5 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 29 9 of 12 9 of 13
Thomas Petersen 16 of 35 45% 7 of 25 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 29 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 13 of 20 65% 13 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 4 7 of 10
Thomas Petersen 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 14 of 28 50% 8 of 21 5 of 6 1 of 1 8 of 19 6 of 8 0 of 1
Thomas Petersen 13 of 28 46% 7 of 21 6 of 7 0 of 0 11 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2
Thomas Petersen 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, believing he is better everywhere except for pure grit. He thinks Vitor can find a finish, but acknowledges the risk of Thomas Petersen grinding out a win if he gets top position. He is undecided on betting due to Vitor's lack of true heavyweight size and the possibility of being controlled on the ground.

"I do think Vitor is better everywhere except just pure American grit and toughness. I think he gets Thomas Petersen out of there."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by second-round knockout. He notes Petrino has filled out at heavyweight and put on muscle, and believes he will win because many heavyweights are not great. He thinks Petersen is more skilled than shown but won't outwrestle or outstrike Petrino. Brady leans toward a knockout, saying Petrino will touch Petersen's chin.

knockout
"I'm leaning knockout for VTO Petrino. I'll say he does touch the chin of Thomas Peterson. We'll say second round knockout for Vtorrino here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Cody picks Petersen as well, noting Petrino's history of underperforming as a favorite. He highlights Petrino's low volume and poor wrestling, while Petersen is a better wrestler and throws more volume. He expects a close fight but sees value in the underdog.

"I'm going Pison as well, but because it's in Brazil and I know Thomas Patterson really isn't a world beater by any stretch, it likely is the PRP pick this week all the way at the bottom."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino by KO, but is not confident due to Petrino's chin issues and the -310 price. He notes Petrino's power advantage and Petersen's poor striking defense. He acknowledges Petersen's wrestling and cardio could grind out a decision, but sees a knockout as most likely. He mentions he might bet against his pick with a Petersen decision longshot.

Vitor Petrino by KO (+140), Thomas Petersen by decision (+600)
"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via KO, but I don't love the pick and I'm definitely not in love with the price tag at minus 310."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Manpreet picks Petersen as an underdog, believing that if Petersen can avoid Petrino's early knockout power, his wrestling and cardio will take over. He notes Petersen's dominant performance against Mayes and expects him to wear Petrino down, potentially finishing in round three. He loves the plus 260 line and also considers the round three prop.

Petersen round three TKO (+1500); Petersen by decision (+550)
"I'd rather lean on that prop rather than taking the money line on Petrino, but at the end of the day, I'm going to lean Peterson here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Thomas Petersen

Paul picks Petersen as a dog, citing Petrino's poor wrestling and low volume. He notes Petersen's wrestling credentials and durability, and believes he can outwork Petrino. He calls it a 'dog or pass' fight.

"For me, it's Dogger Pass. Thomas Peterson, where are you at with this fight?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino over Thomas Petersen, citing Petrino's size, power, and grappling skills. He notes Petersen is out of shape and Petrino showed good jiu-jitsu in his last fight. He predicts a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in round 1
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino. TKO finish in the first round over Thomas Peterson."
WIN vs Austen Lane
Submission R1 4:16 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Teixeira · Jul 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 3 of 6 50% 17 of 22 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:03
Austen Lane 0 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 4
Austen Lane 3 of 4 75% 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino despite moving up to heavyweight, citing Austen Lane's lack of chin and reliance on grappling. He thinks Petrino's physicality and athleticism will be enough to win, but he despises the -700 odds. He notes Petrino was winning his last fight before getting knocked out, and Lane is chinny.

Despises -700 odds.
"Vtor Patino is going to be the pick. I absolutely despise these minus 700 odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady is confident in Vitor Petrino, noting that Austen Lane has been brutally knocked out multiple times and is 37 with a history of concussions. He believes Petrino will knock out Lane in hilarious fashion. He expresses concern for Lane's health and hopes this is his last fight.

first round knockout
"Give me Vito Petrino by first round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino easily, calling Austen Lane a person who should not be fighting—he closes his eyes when striking and gets hurt badly every time he trades. He notes that Petrino is moving up to heavyweight but is still a competent wrestler, unlike Robles de Spain who Lane beat. Connor believes this fight says nothing about Petrino's prospects but is a clear win.

"You got to pick Patrino. ... Austin Lane is just, yeah, you said he's the guy who closes his eyes when he has to strike."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 9, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host expects Petrino's power to translate to heavyweight and that he will eventually clip Lane and put him away. However, he advises against betting Petrino at -700, indicating the odds are too steep. The pick is based on Petrino's power and Lane's recent knockout losses.

would not bet at -700
"Petrino going up away class now to the heavyweight division. And we'll see in this fight if his power will translate, especially with Lane being knocked out and a few of his last losses. I think Patrino can eventually clip …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing Austen Lane's history of being knocked out (by Greg Hardy, Junior Tafa, Mario Pinto) and his poor striking defense with hands down. He expects Petrino's check hook to catch Lane as he darts in, leading to a first-round TKO. He also notes Petrino's decent scrambles on the ground, unlike Lane's vulnerability.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Vtor Patino getting this one done by early TKO over Austin Lane KO in the first round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane agrees, calling Lane a 'fundamentally not a fighter' who takes severe damage. He notes that Petrino, despite his flaws, is a competent wrestler and athlete who should handle Lane easily. Zane criticizes the UFC for keeping Lane, comparing it to the Connor Matthews situation.

"Austin Lane is fundamentally a person that should not be doing this. ... So you got to pick Patrino."
LOSS vs Dustin Jacoby
KO (punch) R3 3:44 · UFC on ESPN: Covington vs. Buckley · Dec 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Jacoby 0 40 of 96 41% 40 of 96 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:40
Vitor Petrino 1 45 of 96 46% 47 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Jacoby 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Vitor Petrino 0 12 of 32 37% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Dustin Jacoby 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 18 of 36 50% 18 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dustin Jacoby 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:38
Vitor Petrino 1 15 of 28 53% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Jacoby 40 of 96 41% 27 of 79 6 of 7 7 of 10 40 of 96 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 45 of 96 46% 23 of 69 7 of 9 15 of 18 39 of 87 5 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Jacoby 10 of 26 38% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 5 10 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 12 of 32 37% 5 of 22 1 of 2 6 of 8 8 of 25 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Jacoby 19 of 47 40% 16 of 42 2 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 18 of 36 50% 8 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 18 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dustin Jacoby 11 of 23 47% 6 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 15 of 28 53% 10 of 23 3 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 26 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino because he hits hard and Jacoby's chin is declining. He notes Petrino's power, evolving grappling, and takedowns, while Jacoby is a high-level kickboxer with okay power and 60% takedown defense. He expresses concern about Petrino's smiling reaction after his submission loss to Anthony Smith, but believes it was a fluke. He thinks Jacoby could turn it into a dogfight but Petrino's power is the difference.

"I am going to pick patrino here because he hits so damn hard and Dustin's chin doesn't seem to be what it once was."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by decision. He thinks Petrino is younger, improving, and has more ways to win, including power and takedowns. He notes Jacoby has been dropped often and was recently knocked out by Reyes. He expects Petrino to mix in takedowns and land big shots, but not finish.

"I'll say patrino mixes in the takedowns maybe land some big shots here and there maybe drops jacobe because jacobe likes getting dropped but I'll say patrino does enough to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Vitor Petrino but with low confidence, noting his poor gas tank and green technique. He believes Petrino will rely on takedowns and top control to win rounds, but Jacoby's striking advantage could be problematic. Cody suggests a live bet on Jacoby after the first round if Petrino tires.

Over 1.5 rounds (-167), fight goes to decision (+170)
"I'm willing to take the dog shot on Covington and Bruno Silva but I'm going to pass on this jacobe one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Connor picks Jacoby as well, agreeing that Petrino's new style is ineffective. He notes that Petrino's game is 'empty' and that Jacoby is a good outboxer who can take advantage. However, Connor also worries about Jacoby's durability, citing his knockout loss to Reyes and shaky moments against Alonzo Menifield.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303
"I'm picking Jacobi as well, but, uh, odd that the odds are against him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Vitor Petrino to get back on track after his loss to Anthony Smith. He acknowledges Dustin Jacoby's technical kickboxing but worries about Jacoby's durability and tendency to get hurt. Vreeland believes Petrino's freak athleticism and power can change the fight with one shot, even if he's being outpointed. He also notes Petrino can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I'm going go with vtor patrino to come out here and uh get back on track"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Lucrative James picks Vitor Petrino to win, citing Petrino's multiple paths to victory including knockout and grappling. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing background and takedown defense, but believes Petrino's physicality and raw power will be too much. He expresses low interest in betting the fight unless prop odds are wide, but confidently predicts Petrino as the winner.

"I do think berrino wins I do think he's the better fighter I think that he's got way more ways to win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino will crash the pocket effectively and land big shots on Jacoby, who struggles against opponents with big power. The finish is expected within the first two rounds.

wins in round 1 or 2
"I do believe patrino will be able to crash the pocket effectively here and that will allow him to land those big shots on jacobe who just can't seem to get out of the way of opponents with big Power …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Paul picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, citing Petrino's struggles against strikers and Jacoby's striking volume. He notes that Petrino's takedowns are his only path, but Jacoby's takedown defense and ability to get back up could neutralize that. Paul is surprised Petrino is such a big favorite.

"I'm surprised that he's such a big favorite like um there does seem to be some action coming in on the jacobe side."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Dec 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

The MMA Guru picks Dustin Jacoby as an underdog, questioning why he is such a big underdog. He notes Jacoby's kickboxing experience and ability to invest in strikes, though he acknowledges Jacoby's chin has let him down. He believes Petrino's win over Smith was unimpressive (guillotine) and that Jacoby's layers and conditioning will give him an edge. He admits the oddsmakers might know something he doesn't.

underdog bet (implied odds comment)
"I'm going to go Dustin jacobe in his kickboxing experience being able to invest enough and do enough to patrino"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Jacoby

Zane picks Jacoby because Petrino has abandoned his effective bullying style for a technical out-fighting game that doesn't work. He notes that Petrino's recent losses to Anthony Smith and Tyson Pedro show he has no plan, and Jacoby should have plenty of time and space to outbox him. However, Zane is concerned about Jacoby's chin and age.

Jacoby opened at +212, now +254; Petrino opened at -247, now -303; Zane says the odds are 'too wide on Petrino'
"I'm still picking him against Vito Petrino, because Petrino's game as it stands right now is just empty."
LOSS vs Anthony Smith
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Anthony Smith 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Anthony Smith 11 of 20 55% 7 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 5 11 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vitor Petrino 10 of 22 45% 4 of 14 4 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino due to youth, size, and strength, despite Smith being the better technical fighter. He notes Smith has taken too much damage and is past his prime, while Petrino is evolving. He calls it a 'changing of the guard' fight.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick but this is a perfect evolutionary step up in competition for Vitor patrino"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady favors Petrino's youth and momentum, noting his ability to win by knockout or decision. He thinks Smith is past his prime and has taken too much damage. He predicts Petrino wins by grinding decision, possibly taking Smith down.

"I'm gonna say Petrino by like a grinding based decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his physical strength, takedown ability, and power. He notes Smith's durability is questionable after the Krylov loss. However, Cody won't bet at -600 due to lack of value.

"I think he wins... but at minus 600 it's hard to say there's really any meat on the bone here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland picks Petrino, noting his physicality, wrestling, and youth advantage over the aging Smith. He highlights Petrino's takedowns in every UFC fight and his ability to push a high pace. He warns that Smith could capitalize on a mistake with a submission, but believes Petrino is the much better wrestler and more likely to win minutes. He does not lay the -600 price but is confident in Petrino's victory.

"it should be VOR all day here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Vitor Petrino. He also notes the risk due to Petrino's cardio and Smith's submission threat. Vreeland says he is staying away from betting the -500 line because Anthony Smith has screwed bettors over before when written off. He acknowledges Smith's grappling skills but thinks Petrino will knock him out if he fights smart.

"I'm staying away from betting the minus 500 line because Anthony Smith has has screwed us over in the past"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Jeff Fox picks Vitor Petrino but is wary of betting the -500 line. He believes Petrino will knock out Anthony Smith if he keeps his distance and throws bombs, as Smith has no chin left. However, Fox notes that Petrino got tired in his last fight, and Smith still has great jiu-jitsu. If Petrino grapples and tires himself out, he could get submitted. Fox calls it an IQ test for Petrino and says he is staying away from parlays involving this fight due to the risk.

"obviously patrino is to pick here uh as long as he doesn't attack Smith's family I think he's gonna knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is 11-0 and has developed in every aspect of his MMA game. He came in as a power puncher but now implements a grapple-heavy approach. He will put big punches on Smith, take him down, and grind him out over 15 minutes, showing that Smith is over the hill.

"give me patrino and patrino by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino but with hesitation, noting Petrino is still green, makes mistakes, and hasn't faced high-level competition. He thinks Smith is washed but could be competitive. Paul sees Petrino as a fade candidate at this price but expects him to win.

"I'm almost thinking that Vitor Petrino is that guy because he's suspect to me..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino, citing his physicality, takedown defense, and knockout power. He believes Anthony Smith struggles against athletic, powerful opponents and often shells up under pressure. He notes Petrino's composed striking and low kicks, and expects him to exploit Smith's weaknesses, possibly finishing him.

"I'm going to go with uh Vito patrino put him putting him away"
WIN vs Tyson Pedro
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gaziev · Mar 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 27 of 75 36% 33 of 82 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:24
Tyson Pedro 0 30 of 60 50% 33 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyson Pedro 0 11 of 24 45% 11 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:16
Tyson Pedro 0 14 of 22 63% 14 of 23 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
3 Vitor Petrino 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 24 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:08
Tyson Pedro 0 5 of 14 35% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 27 of 75 36% 16 of 59 4 of 8 7 of 8 25 of 72 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 30 of 60 50% 3 of 29 11 of 15 16 of 16 29 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 10 of 28 35% 5 of 20 2 of 4 3 of 4 10 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 11 of 24 45% 0 of 13 4 of 4 7 of 7 11 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 10 of 30 33% 6 of 24 1 of 3 3 of 3 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tyson Pedro 14 of 22 63% 1 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 8 13 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 7 of 17 41% 5 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Tyson Pedro 5 of 14 35% 2 of 10 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Vitor Petrino, calling it a fraud check fight but believing Petrino passes. He notes Petrino's power, athleticism, and wrestling, though he can be sloppy. He thinks Petrino's advantages in power and speed should be enough to win.

"vtor patrino is going to be the pick because of everything I mentioned he hits harder he's more athletic he's faster"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Petrino due to Pedro's poor cardio and 0-3 record in fights that reach the second round. He notes Petrino has excellent cardio, a good chin, and can mix in takedowns, while Pedro is a first-round bust with all 10 wins coming in the first round. He expects Petrino to survive an early storm and finish Pedro late second or third round by TKO.

"I gotta go patrino here just due to the fact that anytime Tyson Pedro reaches the second round he just has nothing left"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody also picks Petrino, citing his superior wrestling and ground game as the key. He notes Pedro's takedown defense is poor (52%) and he's faced almost no wrestlers. Cody believes Petrino can strike with Pedro but also take him down and smother him. He acknowledges Petrino's cardio could be a concern but thinks Pedro's cardio is equally poor, evening things out.

"the key here though Paul sha is the ground game yeah 100%... petrino's got an ability to go out there and get the takedowns once he does get you to the ground he's got smothering top control"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino is an undefeated prospect with great punching power and improving grappling. He has excellent awareness to avoid bad positions and can explode out of them. Pedro has slick submissions but Petrino's takedown defense and ability to reverse positions should nullify that. Petrino will dictate where the fight takes place and land the bigger, better strikes. The host expects a finish, likely by knockout in the second round.

Petrino by knockout, round 2
"I think patrino wins this fight pretty much anywhere it goes and I think that this is the fight that we'll see him actually go out there and get another finish likely probably by by the second round as well"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul likes Petrino's development and well-rounded skills, noting his solid striking, takedowns, and improving cardio. He believes Petrino will take over if Pedro doesn't catch him early, and that Petrino has a big advantage in the later rounds. He mentions Petrino's chin has been tested but he's only 26 and learning on the job.

"Patrina is the pick for me... I like what I see from Vitor patrino... he's proven to me that he's going to have a big Advantage if he gets out of the first round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Petrino, noting his KO of Modestas Bukauskas while Pedro lost to Bukauskas on short notice. He expects a close first round but Petrino to take over in the second, muscling forward for a TKO. He mentions if it goes past round one, he leans Petrino and suggests checking odds after round one.

TKO win in round 2
"I'm going to say in round two towards the end of it we see Pedro start to slow down and Petrino start to muscle his way forward and get a TKO win in round two"
KO (punch) R2 1:03 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 1 8 of 26 30% 14 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:19
Modestas Bukauskas 0 9 of 19 47% 12 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 6 of 21 28% 12 of 29 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Modestas Bukauskas 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Vitor Petrino 1 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Modestas Bukauskas 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 9 of 19 47% 5 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5 9 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 6 of 21 28% 4 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 5
Modestas Bukauskas 5 of 12 41% 1 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 5 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Modestas Bukauskas 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Modestas Bukauskas vs. Vitor Petrino
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Petrino (-218), Bukauskas (+180)

Round 1
The second of three undefeated Brazilians on the card takes center stage next, as Petrino (9-0, 2-0 UFC) aims to pick up his 10th win as a pro at the expense of Bukauskas (15-5, 3-3 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly shortly between these two light heavyweights, but before they do, referee Marc Goddard has to clock them in. A brief tap of the gloves leads to a faked kick from Bukauskas, who looks for his range and manages to plant his shin on Petrino’s calf early. Bukauskas fires off a head kick to follow, and Petrino’s guard is up well in time to defend. Bukauskas comes up short with another high kick, and he parries a jab and whiffs with a low kick. Bukauskas protects his face from an oncoming head kick, and he pokes at the lead calf. Petrino paws out a jab and absorbs a thumping calf kick, and he tosses another high kick that does not find its target. Jabs are attempted from both sides, and Bukauskas reaches out with a left hook and blocks a kick aimed at his temple. Petrino doubles up on a jab and fires off a left hook that grazes the hair, and they reset with a jab from both men. Petrino sneaks in a jab, and he takes a calf kick and attempts a takedown. When he trips Bukauskas up, the Brazilian elects to lift Bukauskas in the air and slam him down with a powerbomb seen in the professional wrestling circuits. When Bukauskas looks to scramble, Petrino continues maintaining top position while shifting into half guard. Bukauskas defends himself from any ground-and-pound by hanging onto Petrino’s forearms, and the subsequent inactivity prompts Goddard to issue a warning. Petrino scores a pair of punches, and Bukauskas bucks off and starts striking back. A few more short punches from Petrino end the low-paced frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Petrino
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petrino

Round 2
The light heavyweights touch gloves, and Goddard steps in 15 seconds into the round to command that Bukauskas get his mouthpiece replaced, and that the commission get it together. When they resume after the awkward pause, both men go for big strikes, and they partially connect.
Bukauskas looks to settle down with a jab, and as soon as he sits down on it, Petrino slides to the side and uncorks a short but lethal left hook that completely flatlines Bukauskas. The back of Bukauskas’ head clatters off the floor as his eyes roll back, and an attentive Goddard leaps in before Petrino can clobber him with any additional strikes.
Bukauskas tries to get back to his feet and motion that he was just flash knocked down, but he needs help standing up as commission and medical officials rush to his aid. This is a massive victory for the still-undefeated Petrino, who has performed finishes in eight of his 10 pro wins to date.

The Official Result
Vitor Petrino def. Modestas Bukauskas R2 1:03 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but is not super confident. He notes Petrino is dangerous with power and athleticism, but can be sloppy and dropped. Bukauskas is a good striker with decent takedown defense. Angelo thinks Petrino's relentless aggression will win him the fight, but he leaves Petrino out of parlays because Bukauskas could play spoiler at plus money.

Bukauskas is a great underdog at +250, Petrino left out of parlays
"I am confident not super confident but I do think vtor wins this fight because cuz we have this guy's a dog he doesn't care he'll get dropped he'll keep coming"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by knockout in the second round. He criticizes Bukauskas as a boring point fighter and praises Petrino's evolving skillset, including takedowns and cardio. He believes Petrino can win by any method but prefers the knockout. He notes Petrino's physical strength and ability to go 15 minutes.

"I'll say knocks out psk just because I I would love that for that to happen um so I'll say knockout for patrino and I'll say it happens in the second round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Vitor Petrino, describing him as a physical freak with one-punch knockout power, strong wrestling, and submission skills. He notes that Petrino is still evolving and should be able to steamroll Bukauskas. Levi points out Bukauskas' poor striking defense, with his chin often in the air, and his history of being knocked out. He sees Bukauskas as a low-volume kickboxer who can be overwhelmed. Levi expects Petrino to finish the fight, possibly in the second round.

Petrino wins by KO/TKO, Petrino wins in round 2
"I think he steamrolls Bukauskas... I'm leaning towards him steamrolling Bukauskas to be quite frank with you."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James is quite confident in Petrino, stating he has all the upside in every aspect of the fight: knockout, submission, and decision. He believes Petrino deserves to be a big favorite and that Bukauskas' only path to victory is if Petrino gasses or if it becomes a low-volume point striking affair, which he does not see happening. He does not specify a method of victory but is confident Petrino gets the win.

"I like patrino here I think he has all the upside in every different aspect of the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has shown a solid gas tank for light heavyweight and is working on his jiu-jitsu, as seen in his last fight. He has speed, power, and explosiveness that will trouble Bukauskas. Petrino can either knock him out or use his grappling advantage to take him down and grind him out. The -200 range is a good spot to jump in.

surprised he's only around -200; thinks that's a damn good spot
"I like Petrino a lot in this spot and I'm kind of surprised that he's only around that minus 200 range... I think that's a damn good spot to jump in on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Modestas Bukauskas

The MMA Guru picks Modestas Bukauskas as an underdog over Vitor Petrino. He highlights Bukauskas' experience and reach advantage, and notes his impressive performance against Tyson Pedro on short notice. The Guru believes Bukauskas is underrated and that Petrino may struggle with the reach and stand-up. He also mentions Bukauskas was arguably robbed against Marcin Prachnio. The Guru likes Bukauskas' odds.

underdog odds
"I'm going with another Underdog here I'm going with mestas bowkus over VOR patrino... I like his odds there"
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:42 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 44 of 81 54% 72 of 111 4 of 6 66% 2 0 8:39
Marcin Prachnio 0 55 of 88 62% 147 of 185 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 16 of 33 48% 20 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:21
Marcin Prachnio 0 32 of 44 72% 66 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Vitor Petrino 0 11 of 15 73% 30 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:38
Marcin Prachnio 0 2 of 5 40% 56 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 17 of 33 51% 22 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:40
Marcin Prachnio 0 21 of 39 53% 25 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 44 of 81 54% 32 of 68 9 of 10 3 of 3 24 of 58 1 of 1 19 of 22
Marcin Prachnio 55 of 88 62% 25 of 54 21 of 25 9 of 9 41 of 73 14 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 16 of 33 48% 9 of 26 6 of 6 1 of 1 11 of 25 1 of 1 4 of 7
Marcin Prachnio 32 of 44 72% 12 of 23 14 of 15 6 of 6 21 of 32 11 of 12 0 of 0
2 Vitor Petrino 11 of 15 73% 10 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 11
Marcin Prachnio 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 17 of 33 51% 13 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2 13 of 29 0 of 0 4 of 4
Marcin Prachnio 21 of 39 53% 12 of 27 6 of 9 3 of 3 18 of 36 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.

No bets yet, waiting for props
"Vitor Petrino is the pick no bets yet but we'll see when these props drop"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.

first round knockout
"I'll say he knocks him out on the very first round here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.

Petrino by KO/TKO, under 1.5 rounds
"Petrino will be the pick but minus 300 there's really nothing there for me"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I just think he's too violent for Prochnio."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.

"I think Vitor is going to be the guy that goes back and exposes that chin of Marcin pratch."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.

Vitor Petrino wins by KO in round 1; Vitor Petrino inside the distance
"I think petrino's gonna Land one on pretnia's chin and I think it's going to be night night"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.

round 1 knockout
"give me Vitor Petrino by knockout I actually think it comes pretty early as well let's call it round one."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.

Petrino by KO/TKO or decision
"I think Petrino mixes in those takedowns if he doesn't melt him with a big right hand"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.

wins by KO
"I'm gonna go with him getting this one done by KO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.

Petrino opened at -263, currently -278; Prachnio opened at +199, currently +238. Zane says odds should not get wider.
"I got to pick a guy like Patrino light heavyweight. It's just the right division for him for that kind of fight."
Steven Asplund - Fight History
LOSS vs Vitor Petrino
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Vitor Petrino 0 92 of 161 57% 92 of 162 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:17
Steven Asplund 1 61 of 158 38% 73 of 172 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Vitor Petrino 0 19 of 37 51% 19 of 38 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
Steven Asplund 1 20 of 45 44% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
2 Vitor Petrino 0 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
Steven Asplund 0 14 of 50 28% 14 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Vitor Petrino 0 39 of 72 54% 39 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Vitor Petrino 92 of 161 57% 59 of 126 18 of 18 15 of 17 92 of 160 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 61 of 158 38% 48 of 140 4 of 8 9 of 10 58 of 154 1 of 2 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Vitor Petrino 19 of 37 51% 14 of 32 2 of 2 3 of 3 19 of 36 0 of 1 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 20 of 45 44% 14 of 39 3 of 3 3 of 3 17 of 41 1 of 2 2 of 2
2 Vitor Petrino 34 of 52 65% 25 of 42 3 of 3 6 of 7 34 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 14 of 50 28% 12 of 45 1 of 3 1 of 2 14 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Vitor Petrino 39 of 72 54% 20 of 52 13 of 13 6 of 7 39 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 27 of 63 42% 22 of 56 0 of 2 5 of 5 27 of 63 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."
WIN vs Sean Sharaf
KO R2 3:49 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Sharaf 0 66 of 153 43% 66 of 154 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 170 of 292 58% 172 of 294 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Sharaf 0 43 of 89 48% 43 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 71 of 137 51% 72 of 138 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Sean Sharaf 0 23 of 64 35% 23 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Steven Asplund 0 99 of 155 63% 100 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Sharaf 66 of 153 43% 50 of 134 15 of 18 1 of 1 66 of 149 0 of 4 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 170 of 292 58% 154 of 276 6 of 6 10 of 10 166 of 285 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Sharaf 43 of 89 48% 32 of 76 10 of 12 1 of 1 43 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 71 of 137 51% 61 of 127 3 of 3 7 of 7 70 of 136 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sean Sharaf 23 of 64 35% 18 of 58 5 of 6 0 of 0 23 of 60 0 of 4 0 of 0
Steven Asplund 99 of 155 63% 93 of 149 3 of 3 3 of 3 96 of 149 3 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Steven Asplund vs. Sean Sharaf
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Asplund (-220); Sharaf (+180)

Round 1
Just like that, we’re back to a pair of heavyweights that many believe are a bit green for a UFC pickup, but nonetheless are about to throw down. Much like the previous heavyweight encounter tonight, these two come into this battle with all but one of their combined stoppages via strikes—and a doctor stoppage. “The Smoke” Sharaf (4-1, 0-1 UFC) got smoked by Junior Tafa over a year ago for his first career defeat, while LFA veteran Asplund (6-1, 0-0 UFC) graduated from its confines and punched out Anthony Guarascio in 16 seconds in September. There is no truth to the rumor that the cage was reinforced due to the combined 512 pounds of fighter in there now, not counting referee Mark Smith along for the wild ride. There is a glove touch that precedes the action.
Sharaf comes out immediately swinging big, but he throws himself off-balance and Asplund tees off on him. Asplund bounces away from looping right hands to hurt Sharaf with a pair of elbows, so Sharaf retaliates with a pair of vicious looping hooks. Sharaf rips a left hand over and around the guard, and Asplund has to reset from the blow and lands a low kick on his way out. Both fighters flash jabs at one another, and Sharaf loads up and drills Asplund with an elbow. Asplund dances out of the way when Sharaf lets more fists fly, and he pecks at the Xtreme Couture product with jabs that set up rights. Sharaf is loading up with everything he has with every swing, and Asplund is not avoiding them all. Sharaf plants a one-two on the chin, and Asplund replies with a string of punches that largely bang into the guard. Asplund sinks a heavy calf kick home, and Smith asks for the fighters to close their fists. Sharaf goes to the body in the midst of an exchange, and Asplund pays him back with a thudding right.
Asplund splits the guard with a front kick, and he is forced to retreat when Sharaf chains a few punches together. The two take turns bashing one another’s brains in, and Asplund snaps out a jab that splits the skin between Sharaf's eyebrows wide open. Blood flows down his face, allowing Asplund to target it and further bust it up. Asplund sways to evade a pair of hooks, but Sharaf rips a left to the liver that gets his attention. Asplund leans back to barely avoid a big right, and he cracks the bloody man with a crushing uppercut. Sharaf is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he has a veritable axe wound on his face, but he takes upright when Asplund rocks him and tries to punch him out. Sharaf backs away to get away from the bludgeoning, and Asplund chases him down and tosses a head kick at him. Asplund falls over when he misses the kick, and he springs back up. The two heavyweights brawl it out to the bell, and it’s anyone’s guess as to whether Sharaf will be allowed to continue the fight when the doctor checks out his massive forehead gash.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Asplund
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Asplund
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Asplund

Round 2
Sharaf is cleared to keep fighting after all, although the cutman is unable to close the wound. Knowing he might be on borrowed time, Sharaf comes out firing, backing Asplund to the wall when he hurls bombs. Asplund bounces off the cage to throw back, and he walks into a standing elbow. Asplund loops a pair of rights over the guard, tagging “Head Wound Harry” and forcing Smith to ask Sharaf to fight back. Sharaf obliges him, swinging with all his might, but his lobs are labored and only a few land because of how telegraphed they are. Asplund takes them on the chin and keeps marching Sharaf down, putting fists to his face. Asplund brings up a low kick that pounds into the cup, the sound echoing through the Apex, and Smith calls time and immediately brings in the doctor—to check on the cut, and not because of the groin shot. Once more, Sharaf can go on because the cut is positioned between his eyes and not above them, thus not seriously obscuring his vision. After 70 seconds, Sharaf signals he is good to go, and they resume. Asplund goes right after him, planting jab after jab on the cut to open up follow-up right hands. Asplund prefers to touch rather than load up, while Sharaf is swinging for the bleachers. One such huge blow knocks Asplund back a few steps, but he gathers a full head of steam and continues to peck and probe at Sharaf’s face with straight strikes.
Asplund appears to finally hurt Sharaf with a long series of punches, and he backs Sharaf to the wall. Sharaf tries to fight back by hurling uppercuts at him, and Asplund dodges them and keeps working Sharaf over.
Smith implores Sharaf to fight back, and he does but is constantly under fire and barely still on his feet. Asplund strings a lengthy series of punches together, knocking Sharaf’s head around like a speed bag. Sharaf’s toughness is off the charts, but as Asplund continues to beat him relentlessly, Smith saves Sharaf from himself and waves the fight off.
The victorious Asplund celebrates by tweaking his nipples—Rashad Evans is pointing at the screen from the analyst booth like Leonardo DiCaprio in the infamous meme—and telling the camera that fat people can make a change and transform themselves like he did. His subsequent post-fight interview is one that those watching will remember for quite some time, so if you missed it, be sure to stick around after the bloodbath concludes to hear his inspiring message, his beautiful words for his family and his unadulterated joy and pride in doing what he loves.

The Official Result
Steven Asplund def. Sean Sharaf R2 3:49 via TKO (Punches)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund, citing his mobility, reach, and cardio. He expects Sharaf to fade after the first round, allowing Asplund to take over and get a TKO. He suggests a round two prop.

Asplund by TKO in round 2
"I think Shaon Sharaf gets knocked out Steve Asplin by TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steven Asplund

Connor agrees with Asplund, but is equally hesitant. He describes Asplund as a fighter who fights like he's on fire for two minutes then gasses, but keeps trying. Sharaf, on the other hand, quits when hit clean. He calls it a crime against humanity and says neither fighter should engender confidence.

"Yeah, I guess i'll pick asplund. It's a terrible fight could easily be either guy and if either guy wins it will almost certainly tell us nothing."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Lucrative James picks Steven Asplund confidently, citing his size advantage as a true heavyweight. He believes Sean Sharaf is a light heavyweight who will struggle with Asplund's size and power, and predicts Asplund will win via TKO from top position. He projects Asplund as a -250 favorite.

"I'm calling Aspen to get the win in this fight."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Paul is hesitant but leans Asplund, noting his mobility and youth. He worries about Asplund's takedown defense but thinks he can survive early and take over later. He prefers live betting or a round two prop.

Asplund by TKO in round 2
"Live betting maybe a round two or round three type of prop is the way that I would go about betting Steven Aspland versus Shauna Sharaff."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Steven Asplund

Zane picks Asplund hesitantly, noting that Asplund gets tired quickly but keeps fighting aggressively, while Sharaf quits when not winning. He points out that Asplund has wins outside the first round, whereas Sharaf has only one fight outside the first round and lost it. He calls it a terrible fight that could go either way.

Over 0.5 rounds -410, under 0.5 +280; over 1.5 rounds +140. Zane suggests the over 1.5 rounds might be value.
"I guess I will say Asplund. He does get to at least just as many instant wins and also has one outside the first round."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Angelo picks Steven Asplund despite being an underdog. He criticizes Vitor Petrino's lack of killer instinct and fight IQ, and believes Asplund's incredible cardio, durability, and forward pressure will break Petrino. He notes that Petrino is more athletic and technical, but Asplund's willpower and toughness will be the difference. He is not betting on it due to heavyweight unpredictability.

"I'm going to pick Stephen Aspun here. ... I gotta go with the guy who changed his life through hard work and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round submission. He is a fan of Asplund but worries about his takedown defense, citing the Don'Tale Mayes fight where he was dominated. He believes Petrino's wrestling and strength will be too much, and if Asplund hasn't improved his grappling, Petrino will finish him quickly.

"give me Vita Petrino to win this fight and win it by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Steven Asplund

Cody picks Asplund as a dog, citing Petrino's poor cardio, questionable chin, and broken hand. He notes Asplund's volume and durability, and thinks he can outwork Petrino and potentially finish him late.

"I got I got Ask one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Connor picks Petrino, agreeing that being at heavyweight has emboldened him to be the powerful guy he was at light heavyweight. He notes that the speed of opponents at light heavyweight may have freaked him out, but now he feels like a god against slower heavyweights.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'll take Patrino to. He may not feel like the dad energy, but he's got the power and being at heavyweight does seem to have emboldened him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

James picks Vitor Petrino to win by submission, highlighting his black belt in BJJ and Asplund's only loss coming by submission. He notes Petrino's grappling advantage and Asplund's tendency to give up his neck. He mentions a possible hand injury for Petrino but still expects a submission win.

"I'm going to pick VTO Petrino via submission as my official prediction in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

The host picks Petrino to win by submission, citing his power and grappling advantage. He expects Petrino to take Asplund down and find a finish, noting that Asplund's lack of athleticism and strength will be exploited. He acknowledges Asplund's cardio could be a factor in deeper waters, but believes Petrino's early power will be decisive.

Petrino by submission
"I like Patrino here. I don't mind him at chalk. I'll be curious to see what the submission prop sits at... I like Patrino here and I'm going to take him to win this fight by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Paul leans Petrino but is not confident. He notes Petrino's grappling and power, but acknowledges his cardio issues and the broken hand narrative. He thinks Petrino can get takedowns and control, but it's risky.

"I think his takedown defense is there to get exploited and I expect Patrino as long as he doesn't get his head knocked off in the first few exchanges."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Vitor Petrino

The Guru picks Vitor Petrino, despite liking Asplund's style. He thinks Petrino's grappling will be the difference, as Asplund may struggle to escape bottom position. He predicts a submission win, possibly an arm triangle or rear naked choke, noting Petrino's success in his debut.

Prediction: submission win (arm triangle or rear naked choke)
"I'm going to go with Vitor Petrino... I think he'll get a submission win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Vitor Petrino

Zane picks Petrino, noting that the heavyweight move seems to be working for him and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Asplund. He describes Asplund as a volume striker who gets hammered and has already lost to Denzel Freeman regionally.

Odds: Petrino opened at -250, currently -260; Asplund opened at +210, currently +220.
"I'm going to pick Patrino because the heavyweight move seems like it's working for him so far and he is an athletic lightyear ahead of Steve Asplund."