UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026 · Women's Strawweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 4"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 31
Height 5' 5"
Reach 63.0"
Weight 115 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Amanda Lemos
2.75 SLpM
55.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
1.02 TD Avg
64.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Gillian Robertson
2.71 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.86 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
2.76 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Amanda Lemos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 42 of 73 57% 51 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:04
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 26 46% 64 of 81 3 of 7 42% 0 2 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 25 of 37 67% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 15 33% 9 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:38
2 Amanda Lemos 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Gillian Robertson 0 2 of 3 66% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 8 62% 29 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 42 of 73 57% 31 of 61 8 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 57 2 of 2 13 of 14
Gillian Robertson 12 of 26 46% 5 of 12 2 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 25 of 37 67% 18 of 29 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 1 12 of 13
Gillian Robertson 5 of 15 33% 2 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 6 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gillian Robertson 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."
CANCEL vs Gillian Robertson
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"Gillian Robertson's the pick for me as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.

Odds: Lemos +170 underdog. Connor feels the line is long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I think she has unlike Lamo. She has continued to improve... but there is a conspicuous lack of meaningful athletic talent on her under her wind column."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.

"My official prediction boys will be Julian Robinson. Gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"G Rob by decision for me."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.

Odds: Robertson opened -110, now -200; Lemos opened -110, now +170. Zane notes the line feels long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I'm gonna pick my mush. I'm gonna stick with the idea that there's just a ceiling to Robertson's game that she imposes on herself."
LOSS vs Tatiana Suarez
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tatiana Suarez 0 20 of 39 51% 70 of 91 3 of 12 25% 0 0 9:34
Amanda Lemos 0 23 of 33 69% 39 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tatiana Suarez 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 30 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 6 83% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Tatiana Suarez 0 5 of 14 35% 27 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:00
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 5 100% 16 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
3 Tatiana Suarez 0 8 of 15 53% 18 of 25 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:36
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tatiana Suarez 20 of 39 51% 1 of 11 10 of 17 9 of 11 9 of 24 11 of 15 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 23 of 33 69% 12 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 7 14 of 22 4 of 4 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tatiana Suarez 7 of 10 70% 0 of 0 1 of 4 6 of 6 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 6 83% 0 of 0 4 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tatiana Suarez 5 of 14 35% 1 of 7 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 6 4 of 8 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 5 of 5 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4 4 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Tatiana Suarez 8 of 15 53% 0 of 4 6 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 22 59% 11 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 2 5 of 12 3 of 3 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Angelo picks Tatiana, believing her wrestling will be too hard to consistently stop. He notes she is a dominant wrestler with almost five takedowns per 15 minutes, though her striking is just okay. He acknowledges Lemos has a ton of high-level experience and power, but thinks Tatiana's relentless pressure and ability to find a submission could be key. He mentions the -400 odds are tough to lay four units on someone coming off a loss, but still picks Tatiana.

Could be a sneaky under two and a half type bet when those round lines drop.
"I'm definitely going to pick Tatiana. I think the wrestling is just going to be too hard to consistently stop."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

Big Brady picks Suarez despite her poor last performance against Jandiroba, noting Lemos fared even worse against the same opponent. He highlights Lemos's inability to stuff takedowns and suspect submission defense. He predicts Suarez wins by second-round submission, though he has concerns about her cardio and striking defense.

Second round submission
"I'm going to take Suarez to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The host considers this a horrible stylistic matchup for Lemos, expecting Suarez to land takedowns, work to a dominant position, and eventually secure a submission. This is a strong pick with high confidence.

win by submission
"We should eventually see Suarez land those takedowns and work to a position where she can eventually incorporate a submission and force the tap from the Brazilian."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Tatiana Suarez

The MMA Guru picks Tatiana Suarez, believing her grappling will be decisive. He notes Lemos has been outgrappled before and her aggressive style (big power swings, guillotine attempts) will leave her open to Suarez's takedowns. He predicts a second or third round ground-and-pound TKO, possibly from crucifix position.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"I'm going to have to go with Tatiana Suarez. I think Lemos's style of fighting ... will leave her more open to the grappling of Suarez."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 12 of 21 57% 30 of 42 3 of 5 60% 0 0 7:58
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 16 25% 40 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:40
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 4 0% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 12 58% 10 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:41
Iasmin Lucindo 0 0 of 3 0% 12 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 4 50% 12 of 16 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:37
Iasmin Lucindo 0 4 of 9 44% 17 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 12 of 21 57% 8 of 16 2 of 3 2 of 2 7 of 14 1 of 1 4 of 6
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 16 25% 2 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 1 1 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 4 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 7 of 12 58% 4 of 8 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 7 1 of 1 3 of 4
Iasmin Lucindo 0 of 3 0% 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Iasmin Lucindo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 1
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos because she is a physical force who can hit hard and is strong in the clinch. He notes that Lucindo is raw and messy, relying on speed and counters, but Lemos has excellent timing and power. Connor worries about Lemos's tendency to wrestle, which could play into Lucindo's hands, but believes Lemos's strength and durability will carry her. He sees Lucindo as too young and raw for this step up.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Connor is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think I have to pick Limo. I think so too. I mean, the prospect of staying at long range and waiting and hoping to time a man to lamos, yeah, is a fundamentally dangerous proposition."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Iasmin Lucindo

Lucrative James picks Lucindo, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and multiple paths to victory. He notes Lemos is a better striker but has clear grappling deficiencies, having been submitted before. He thinks Lucindo can win by submission or decision through grappling control. He mentions he cashed on Lucindo by submission before and sees value in that prop.

Lucindo via submission at +550 (BetOnline); also decision win possible
"I have to side with Yasmin lendo here she's got better fight IQ she has more ways to win CU she can compete in the strike and if she stays at range but she can win via submiss and win …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Zane picks Lemos, agreeing that Lucindo is too raw and that Lemos's power and physicality will be too much. He notes that Lucindo's game is unstructured and she struggles to initiate, while Lemos is a fast starter with excellent timing. Zane also points out that Lucindo's wins over bigger names may be due to catching them at the right time, and Lemos is still a formidable athlete despite her age.

Odds: Lemos opened at -130, now +130; Lucindo opened at -110, now -140. Zane is surprised Lucindo is favored.
"I think this is actually a case where she is too young and raw for this fighter right now and she does not look like yeah, any of the fighters that have beat Amanda Lamos in the past several years."
LOSS vs Virna Jandiroba
Submission (armbar) R2 4:48 · UFC on ESPN: Lemos vs. Jandiroba · Jul 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Virna Jandiroba 0 2 of 9 22% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:51
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 8 25% 20 of 27 1 of 5 20% 4 1 6:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 1 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
Amanda Lemos 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 9 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:42
2 Virna Jandiroba 0 1 of 8 12% 2 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
Amanda Lemos 0 2 of 7 28% 12 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Virna Jandiroba 2 of 9 22% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 2 of 8 25% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
Amanda Lemos 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Virna Jandiroba 1 of 8 12% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 2 of 7 28% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Angelo picks Virna Jandiroba because she will grind and get takedowns, neutralizing Amanda Lemos's striking. He notes that Lemos is the better mixed martial artist but cannot defend takedowns. He plans to wait for prop bets, especially the takedown line, and considers Jandiroba affordable at even money.

waiting for prop bets, especially takedown line
"I've got to pick Verna here this is definitely a steep test it'll be her first five round fight at first Main Event she is Affordable at even money"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Cody picks Jandiroba, emphasizing her freakish strength, takedown ability, and durability. He notes Lemos has cardio issues and has been taken down repeatedly by lesser grapplers. He expects Jandiroba to bank rounds with top control as Lemos fades, though he admits the fight likely goes to decision and could be a weird judging outcome. He suggests live betting Jandiroba after Lemos wins early rounds.

"I'm gonna chase the other side and go Verna."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Daniel Vreeland leans with Virna Jandiroba due to her world-class Jiu-Jitsu and unorthodox takedown entries, believing she can take down Amanda Lemos and possibly secure a submission early. He notes that Lemos has a significant power edge and could get a late knockout if Jandiroba gasses, but he trusts Jandiroba's early dominance. He also mentions that Lemos has shown vulnerability to submissions, referencing the standing arm triangle loss to Andrade.

"I'm GNA lean with Verna janida because I do think she's going to have that early um upside you know in terms of getting those takedowns in terms of those near submission attempts possibly getting a submission attempt and wearing …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

Jandiroba is a -130 favorite. She has a smothering grappling style and excellent cardio, which should wear down Lemos in the later rounds. Lemos has power but questionable takedown defense and cardio. Jandiroba's chin has held up, and she can take Lemos down, take her back, and eventually find a submission in the third or fourth round. Lemos could finish early, but if she doesn't, Jandiroba will dominate.

submission
"I'm going to say jandi Roba by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Paul thinks Lemos is the better striker and can hang on the mat against Jandiroba, citing her durability in going five rounds with Zhang Weili and surviving takedowns from Mackenzie Dern. He acknowledges Jandiroba's grappling edge but believes Lemos can avoid submissions and win rounds with damage. He calls it close to a pick 'em fight but leans Lemos at plus money.

"I'm kind of tempted by Amanda Lemos in this spot... close to a pick 'em fight but give me Amanda Lemos at plus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Virna Jandiroba

The MMA Guru picks Virna Jandiroba after initially considering Lemos. He recalls Lemos' grappling being exposed by Zhang Weili, who had 16 minutes of control time. He notes Jandiroba has never been finished and had close fights with Amanda Ribas and Marina Rodriguez. He trusts the favorite Jandiroba despite not wanting her to succeed.

"I'll go jander Roba I'll Trust in a favorite here I'll go jandera"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 1 41 of 80 51% 47 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:02
Mackenzie Dern 0 21 of 54 38% 50 of 85 1 of 3 33% 0 2 6:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 22 36% 19 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:45
2 Amanda Lemos 1 24 of 51 47% 27 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:09
Mackenzie Dern 0 8 of 24 33% 11 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 6 100% 9 of 9 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:53
Mackenzie Dern 0 5 of 8 62% 20 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 1 2:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 41 of 80 51% 26 of 62 8 of 10 7 of 8 24 of 56 1 of 2 16 of 22
Mackenzie Dern 21 of 54 38% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 1 13 of 42 0 of 1 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 11 of 23 47% 4 of 15 3 of 4 4 of 4 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 22 36% 8 of 20 0 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 18 0 of 0 4 of 4
2 Amanda Lemos 24 of 51 47% 17 of 42 4 of 5 3 of 4 12 of 32 1 of 2 11 of 17
Mackenzie Dern 8 of 24 33% 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 1 8 of 22 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 6 100% 5 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 5
Mackenzie Dern 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Angelo picks Amanda Lemos, citing her superior striking and takedown defense. He rants about Mackenzie Dern's poor wrestling and 14% takedown accuracy, despite her elite BJJ. He notes Lemos is coming off a bad loss but believes her takedown defense is more than enough to keep the fight standing. He calls the odds fantastic.

"Amanda lamos is going to be the pick I think the odds at minus 125 based on the rant I just went on are fantastic odds"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Big Brady picks Mackenzie Dern as a dog but with very low confidence. He notes Dern's inconsistency, looking great against Angela Hill but terrible against Jessica Andrade. He thinks if Dern gets the fight to the ground, she can submit Lemos, who has been tapped before. He says he won't bet this fight and is staying far away, but as a pick he goes with Dern by submission.

Dern by submission
"I'm gonna take dur here as a dog as far as a pick goes I'll say she Subs lamos but I can't trust either of these Fighters"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Cody agrees with Paul, noting Dern's durability and BJJ threat. He mentions that Lemos could get a knockout, but Dern has shown she can take bombs. He believes Dern only needs one takedown to close the show. He picks Dern moneyline without chasing props.

"I like d as well but yeah I I don't even think I'm going to chase a prop on this one cuz um I see both pass to Victory..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland does not make a clear pick, calling it a coin flip. He notes Lemos's power and leg kick potential but is concerned about her tendency to flop to her back, as seen against Zhang. He acknowledges Dern's elite BJJ but questions her wrestling and striking. He stays away from betting on this fight.

"I'm staying away from this one."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Daniel picks Amanda Lemos hard, despite being a fan of Mackenzie Dern's grappling style. He thinks Dern won't be able to get the fight to the ground due to Lemos' strength, good boxing, and takedown defense. He also cites Dern's short notice and Lemos' reach advantage. He believes Lemos should be a -200 favorite and is all in on her.

"we're going Lemos hard uh and and this is coming from maybe one of the preeminent uh McKenzie dur fans... I think LMO should be a negative 200 favorite here or better like negative 130 just not high enough I'm …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Jeff picks Amanda Lemos, calling it a good number. He notes that Dern struggles with her wrestling and striking, and doesn't look great on the feet. He points out that Lemos just fought for the belt and has a reach advantage. He thinks Lemos should be a -200 favorite or better, so -130 is a good price.

"lamos is is the pick good number on this fight as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lemos is a dangerous power puncher who can keep Dern at bay. Dern is inconsistent and unable to complete takedowns. Expects Lemos to find a knockout in the second round.

"I expect her power to come through once again for her as she keeps D at Bay and eventually finds that knockout in the second round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mackenzie Dern

Paul picks Dern, citing her superior Jiu-Jitsu and improved striking. He notes Lemos' low volume and 55% takedown defense, which could allow Dern to get the fight to the ground. He highlights Dern's durability and cardio, and believes she can outwork Lemos on the feet or submit her. He sees value at plus money.

"I got D yeah."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The MMA Guru picks Amanda Lemos, calling her a dangerous power puncher and criticizing Mackenzie Dern's striking as nonexistent. He believes Lemos will have improved her grappling defense after being dominated by Zhang Weili. He predicts a brutal TKO stoppage in round one, stating Dern has never practiced striking for MMA.

"Amanda Lemos gets it done TKO... Dern has never practiced striking for MMA in her entire life."
LOSS vs Zhang Weili
Decision (unanimous) (50–43, 50–44, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Zhang Weili 1 163 of 217 75% 296 of 358 6 of 7 85% 0 0 16:07
Amanda Lemos 0 24 of 63 38% 29 of 68 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Zhang Weili 0 44 of 55 80% 74 of 90 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
2 Zhang Weili 0 16 of 20 80% 49 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 10 40% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Zhang Weili 0 20 of 29 68% 31 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:58
Amanda Lemos 0 5 of 12 41% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
4 Zhang Weili 0 28 of 45 62% 28 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:44
Amanda Lemos 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:07
5 Zhang Weili 1 55 of 68 80% 114 of 129 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:05
Amanda Lemos 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Zhang Weili 163 of 217 75% 106 of 150 37 of 42 20 of 25 50 of 77 17 of 18 96 of 122
Amanda Lemos 24 of 63 38% 19 of 57 3 of 4 2 of 2 23 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Zhang Weili 44 of 55 80% 36 of 47 6 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 41 of 52
Amanda Lemos 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Zhang Weili 16 of 20 80% 10 of 13 6 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 8 4 of 4 7 of 8
Amanda Lemos 4 of 10 40% 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Zhang Weili 20 of 29 68% 11 of 19 5 of 6 4 of 4 8 of 14 8 of 9 4 of 6
Amanda Lemos 5 of 12 41% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Zhang Weili 28 of 45 62% 7 of 17 9 of 12 12 of 16 26 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Amanda Lemos 13 of 37 35% 11 of 34 2 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 35 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Zhang Weili 55 of 68 80% 42 of 54 11 of 12 2 of 2 8 of 9 3 of 3 44 of 56
Amanda Lemos 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo is very confident in Zhang Weili, believing she is head and shoulders above the division. He notes her improved wrestling and jiu-jitsu, impressive volume and cardio, and power. While Amanda Lemos has knockout power and good takedown defense, he thinks Weili can win everywhere and will keep the belt. He has her in a parlay with Marlon Vera.

Parlay with Marlon Vera
"Wei Li Zhang is the pick one of the more confident picks and I have her in that parlay with Cheeto... I think she's going to get it done I think she's going to keep the belt."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Big Brady picks Zhang Weili to win by third-round knockout, acknowledging Lemos is dangerous early. He notes Lemos has power and can finish early, but her cardio fades after the first round. Zhang is improving and can wrestle, and Brady expects her to weather the early storm and take over in the later rounds.

win by KO, round 3
"I like Zhang Whaley here to win this fight I'll say third round knockout for Zhang Wei Lee"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Cody views Zhang as a complete fighter with high-level striking, wrestling, and cardio, while Lemos has not faced top competition and struggled against Angela Hill. He expects Zhang to dominate and likely win by decision, though he acknowledges women's MMA can be unpredictable. He leans towards the fight going the distance.

over 3.5 rounds at +170; fight time over 15.5 minutes
"I think the champion Zang Yale goes out and does what she does best and that's just dominate I mean she's pretty much I always calls uh I don't always call but some Fighters are just generalists like they're generally …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel Levi picks Zhang Weili, believing she is one of the best athletes in the UFC and has shown tremendous improvement, especially in grappling after training with Henry Cejudo. He notes that Lemos is dangerous early with heavy hands and a guillotine, but her cardio fades after round two due to weight cuts. Levi expects Zhang to take the fight to the ground and possibly finish via submission or ground and pound. He is confident but acknowledges that the early stand-up exchanges will be a sweat for backers at -330.

Zhang by submission or ground and pound; -330 price is high but Zhang should get it done
"I think Zhang Wally is going to get her to the ground and finish her via submission or grounding pound"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Lucrative James picks Amanda Lemos as a value underdog, believing she hits like a truck and has a good chance of knocking out Zhang Weili. He acknowledges Zhang has more ways to win and better cardio, but at plus 250 he sees it as an easy system play. He advises against being greedy and sticking to the moneyline.

moneyline at plus 250
"Amanda Lemos knocks out Wei Lee Jiang and she becomes the new strawweight champion"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Zhang is well-rounded with power striking and strong wrestling. Lemos fades late and has been submitted before. Zhang will mix in takedowns and wear on Lemos, eventually finding a finish in the later rounds. The inside distance prop and under 3.5/4.5 rounds are good options.

Zhang wins inside distance, under 3.5 rounds, under 4.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Wiley Zhang I think she wins this fight inside the distance I'm going to be targeting that specific prop in the spot as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The MMA Guru picks Zhang Weili over Amanda Lemos. He notes Lemos' age (36) and past losses to Jessica Andrade and Angela Hill. He believes Zhang's athleticism, speed, power, and improved grappling will be too much. He cites Zhang's dominant grappling performances against Joanna Jędrzejczyk and Carla Esparza. He expects Zhang to win, possibly by submission or TKO.

"I'm going with Zhang Whaley over Amanda Lemos"
TKO (punches) R3 0:54 · UFC Fight Night: Rodriguez vs. Lemos · Nov 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 19 of 52 36% 44 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 29 of 53 54% 43 of 67 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 9 of 29 31% 12 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Marina Rodriguez 0 11 of 18 61% 11 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Amanda Lemos 0 4 of 15 26% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 8 of 16 50% 22 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 6 of 8 75% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Marina Rodriguez 0 10 of 19 52% 10 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 19 of 52 36% 6 of 26 3 of 8 10 of 18 18 of 51 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 29 of 53 54% 16 of 36 10 of 13 3 of 4 25 of 48 3 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 9 of 29 31% 1 of 9 1 of 5 7 of 15 8 of 28 0 of 0 1 of 1
Marina Rodriguez 11 of 18 61% 4 of 9 4 of 6 3 of 3 10 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 4 of 15 26% 1 of 11 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 8 of 16 50% 4 of 10 4 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Amanda Lemos 6 of 8 75% 4 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marina Rodriguez 10 of 19 52% 8 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Angelo picks Rodriguez, expecting her volume to be the difference. He notes she needs to avoid Lemos's power and stay technical, following the blueprint Angela Hill almost used. He acknowledges Lemos is dangerous with 7 stoppage wins and considers a no-action bet on Lemos by stoppage.

this may be a mandala most win inside the distance decision no choking decision no action bet if a Mandela most wins by submission or knockout I'll get paid if she loses a decision which is the most likely outcome I'll get a full refund
"I do have Marina winning I think it's sort of the volume that does it but she needs to avoid the power stay Technical and beat Amanda the same way that Angela hill almost did"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Big Brady cites Lemos's cardio concerns in a five-round fight, noting she has never gone past three rounds. He believes Rodriguez has improved takedown defense and better cardio, and will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts Rodriguez will finish a tired Lemos in the third or fourth round by knockout.

Rodriguez wins by knockout in round 4
"I like Rodriguez here to win I'm gonna take her to win by fourth round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Cody picks Marina Rodriguez, citing her recent run as a viable title challenger, experience in five-round fights, and superior striking volume and power. He notes her takedown defense and ability to survive on the ground, as seen against MacKenzie Dern. He is not sold on Amanda Lemos, pointing to her age, lack of a big win, and close split decision against Angela Hill. He predicts Rodriguez wins by decision, but is not running to the book to bet at the current line.

Marina Rodriguez by decision
"I will take Marina Rodriguez Marina Rodriguez by decision but you know I'm not I'm not running to the book you say and take my money"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Daniel Levi leans Marina Rodriguez, citing her durability and ability to pull away in later rounds (third, fourth, fifth) as Lemos fades. He notes Rodriguez's slow starts and vulnerability to takedowns, as she struggles to get up from bottom, but believes her volume and cardio advantage will overcome Lemos's early power. He mentions the line (-210) is a bit wide and does not have a bet on this fight.

No bet; line considered wide
"I lean with Marina Rodriguez... I don't have a bet on this fight and I don't really have an interest in betting this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The host believes Rodriguez's durability, cardio, and disciplined striking will overcome Lemos's early power. He notes Lemos fades after round one and telegraphs her shots, while Rodriguez has experience going five rounds. He predicts a late TKO (round 5) as Lemos fades, but also sees decision as likely.

Rodriguez round 5 TKO; round 4 or 5 decision
"give me Marina Rodriguez round five TKO I think glamos will be on fumes by that point"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

Paul agrees with Cody's points but struggles with the -220 price, which implies nearly 69% win probability. He thinks 7-3 Rodriguez is reasonable but not a betting opportunity. He does not like the decision prop because he questions Lemos's cardio in five rounds, noting she has been finished or finished early in previous five-round fights. He is considering the under on total rounds, possibly getting plus money, and will wait for weigh-ins to see if Lemos has a bad weight cut. He picks Rodriguez for the show but will not attack the -220 line.

under on total rounds (considering), Marina Rodriguez 120 significant strikes on PrizePicks (considering)
"Marina Rodriguez is the pick for the purposes of the show I'm not gonna be attacking the minus 220 though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez, noting Lemos's power has been absorbed by durable opponents like Michelle Waterson and Angela Hill. He believes Rodriguez's boxing, chin, and own power will surprise Lemos. He predicts a decision win (48-47 or 49-46) as Lemos may hesitate in a five-round fight, while Rodriguez's grappling defense is a concern but not an issue if it stays standing.

48-47 or 49-46 decision
"I'm going Marina Rodriguez here... I'll go 48 47 49 46 Marina Rodriguez but she loses the first round."
Gillian Robertson - Fight History
WIN vs Amanda Lemos
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Amanda Lemos 0 42 of 73 57% 51 of 84 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:04
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 26 46% 64 of 81 3 of 7 42% 0 2 9:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Amanda Lemos 0 25 of 37 67% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:40
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 15 33% 9 of 20 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:38
2 Amanda Lemos 0 10 of 19 52% 11 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:14
Gillian Robertson 0 2 of 3 66% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 Amanda Lemos 0 7 of 17 41% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:10
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 8 62% 29 of 33 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Amanda Lemos 42 of 73 57% 31 of 61 8 of 8 3 of 4 27 of 57 2 of 2 13 of 14
Gillian Robertson 12 of 26 46% 5 of 12 2 of 4 5 of 10 10 of 23 1 of 1 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Amanda Lemos 25 of 37 67% 18 of 29 6 of 6 1 of 2 12 of 23 1 of 1 12 of 13
Gillian Robertson 5 of 15 33% 2 of 7 1 of 2 2 of 6 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Amanda Lemos 10 of 19 52% 7 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 2 9 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gillian Robertson 2 of 3 66% 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Amanda Lemos 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 8 62% 3 of 5 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."
CANCEL vs Amanda Lemos
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her improved grappling and game planning. He notes Lemos's takedown defense issues and expects Robertson to take her down, control position, and win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"Gillian Robertson's the pick for me as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Amanda Lemos

Connor picks Lemos, citing her athleticism and the fact that Robertson has never beaten a high-level athlete. He acknowledges Lemos's lack of development and tendency to waste time, but believes Robertson's mental block against athletic opponents will be her undoing. He notes that Lemos's recent wrestling is just a way to slow fights down, not a decisive advantage.

Odds: Lemos +170 underdog. Connor feels the line is long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I think she has unlike Lamo. She has continued to improve... but there is a conspicuous lack of meaningful athletic talent on her under her wind column."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James picks Gillian Robertson confidently, emphasizing her relentless grappling and ground-and-pound. He notes Amanda Lemos' takedown defense and fight IQ issues, and believes Robertson will eventually get a takedown and finish via submission or ground-and-pound. He projects Robertson as a -175 favorite.

"My official prediction boys will be Julian Robinson. Gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul also picks Robertson, highlighting her takedown ability and improved striking. He thinks Lemos's low volume and poor takedown defense will be exploited, and expects Robertson to win a decision. He likes the decision prop.

Robertson by decision +230
"G Rob by decision for me."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Dec 12, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson but is hesitant, noting that Robertson has a technical advantage and has improved, but has historically struggled against athletic opponents. He worries Robertson may give too much respect to Lemos's speed and power, leading to poor takedown attempts. He sees this as a winnable fight for Robertson if she can stay confident and execute her game plan.

Odds: Robertson opened -110, now -200; Lemos opened -110, now +170. Zane notes the line feels long and sees the fight as close to even.
"I'm gonna pick my mush. I'm gonna stick with the idea that there's just a ceiling to Robertson's game that she imposes on herself."
KO R2 2:07 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Figueiredo · May 03, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marina Rodriguez 0 4 of 17 23% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 16 of 41 39% 73 of 120 2 of 3 66% 0 0 5:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 13 15% 5 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 25 44% 42 of 63 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:34
2 Marina Rodriguez 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 5 of 16 31% 31 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:47
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marina Rodriguez 4 of 17 23% 3 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 16 of 41 39% 12 of 32 2 of 6 2 of 3 6 of 20 0 of 0 10 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 13 15% 2 of 11 0 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 11 of 25 44% 7 of 17 2 of 5 2 of 3 6 of 17 0 of 0 5 of 8
2 Marina Rodriguez 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 5 of 16 31% 5 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo points out that Marina Rodriguez has poor takedown defense, which Gillian Robertson can exploit with her grappling. He acknowledges that Robertson's takedowns are not spectacular but should be sufficient. He expects Robertson to get the fight to the ground and control it, though he notes it could be a close decision due to Rodriguez's striking ability.

"Jillian is the pick. And because Marina is so battle tested, this could be a split decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Gillian Robertson, citing a clear stylistic advantage. He explains that Marina Rodriguez has poor willingness to get up after being taken down, and at 38 years old, she won't improve that. Robertson is younger and will take Rodriguez down, control her on the ground, and cruise to a 30-27 decision. He notes that Rodriguez has survived finishes against solid grapplers but loses minutes on bottom.

Decision win
"Got to be Robertson here. Um she's much younger. Um I think she's been looking great at Strowway."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 1, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a clear striker vs grappler matchup. Robertson has the grappling advantage and should exploit Rodriguez's poor takedown defense and getups. I expect Robertson to secure a submission victory.

submission
"I fully expect Robertson to grind this fight out, landing those opportune takedowns and taking advantage of the poor takedown defense and getups of Rodriguez, which should eventually lead to Robertson landing and securing a submission victory."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marina Rodriguez

The MMA Guru picks Marina Rodriguez as an underdog, despite originally leaning towards Gillian Robertson. He argues that Robertson's offensive wrestling isn't at the level of others who have taken Rodriguez down, and that Rodriguez will outland her on the feet. He believes Rodriguez has good takedown defense and has survived submission attempts from Mackenzie Dern. He predicts Rodriguez wins on damage, possibly by third-round TKO.

underdog pick at +260, possible third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Marina Rodriguez pulling off the upset here as a plus 260 underdog."
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Prates · Nov 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 42 of 105 40% 63 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:17
Luana Pinheiro 0 52 of 108 48% 78 of 145 5 of 17 29% 0 1 8:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 14 of 38 36% 16 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Luana Pinheiro 0 15 of 32 46% 15 of 35 3 of 8 37% 0 0 2:33
2 Gillian Robertson 0 25 of 61 40% 29 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luana Pinheiro 0 20 of 47 42% 22 of 55 1 of 6 16% 0 0 1:22
3 Gillian Robertson 0 3 of 6 50% 18 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Luana Pinheiro 0 17 of 29 58% 41 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 1 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 42 of 105 40% 23 of 84 16 of 18 3 of 3 41 of 102 1 of 3 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 52 of 108 48% 33 of 72 5 of 18 14 of 18 28 of 76 4 of 4 20 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 14 of 38 36% 8 of 32 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 15 of 32 46% 6 of 17 2 of 5 7 of 10 9 of 23 1 of 1 5 of 8
2 Gillian Robertson 25 of 61 40% 13 of 48 11 of 12 1 of 1 24 of 59 1 of 2 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 20 of 47 42% 11 of 32 3 of 9 6 of 6 17 of 44 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Gillian Robertson 3 of 6 50% 2 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luana Pinheiro 17 of 29 58% 16 of 23 0 of 4 1 of 2 2 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo argues that since Luana Pinheiro was submitted by Angela Hill (the least dangerous grappler), she will certainly be submitted by Gillian Robertson, who has the most submission wins in flyweight history. He acknowledges Pinheiro has decent takedown defense and striking, but the MMA math leads him to Robertson. He calls it the only logical conclusion.

"Jillian Robertson has to be the pick here that has to be the only logical conclusion that you could draw so Jillian Robertson's the pick simple done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady believes this is a terrible matchup for Pinheiro, who fades after 7.5 minutes and has been submitted before. He praises Robertson's size, strength, cardio, and ground game, predicting she will take over late and submit Pinheiro in the second round.

Robertson by submission, round 2
"I'll take Jillian Robertson second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody echoes Paul's concerns about Pinheiro's wrestling and notes her quit in the Ronda Marcos fight. He highlights Robertson's high ring IQ and ability to grind opponents down with ground and pound. Cody expects Robertson to dominate on the mat and finish or win a clear decision.

"I think Jullian Robertson rolls here I would love the CF dot model myself but minus 400 favorite seems pretty accurate for Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Pinheiro's striking is aimless and formless. He thinks Robertson can ride out Pinheiro's initial success and eventually get her to the mat. He expects a submission win for Robertson.

"I think Robertson can ride out Pinero's success and eventually get her to the mat and start beating her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Gillian Robertson, highlighting her record for most submission wins in UFC women's history and her ability to get takedowns. He criticizes Luana Pinheiro's toughness and cites past performances where Pinheiro was taken down and submitted by lesser grapplers. Vreeland expects Robertson to dominate on the ground and secure a finish.

"My pick is Julian Robertson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Lucrative James confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by submission. He highlights that Robertson has more physicality at strawweight and is a dangerous BJJ artist, while Pinheiro has cardio issues and is not strong in grappling. He predicts Robertson will get top position and finish via rear-naked choke or armbar, and also suggests the fight won't go to decision.

by submission, fight doesn't go to decision, under 2.5 rounds
"Julian Robinson to win via submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Gillian Robertson

This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Pinheiro. If she can't get success in the first round, Robertson will wear her down with pressure and pace, leading to a submission victory in round two.

wins by submission, round 2
"this is a horrible stylistic match up for Pinero if she's unable to get success in the first round which will eventually lead to Robertson wearing her down with the pressure and Pace eventually leading to a submission victory for …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul sees Pinheiro's takedown defense as a major red flag, citing her struggles against Angela Hill and Michelle Waterson. He believes Robertson's relentless top control and submission threats will be too much. Paul likes Robertson by submission and thinks the -400 line is accurate.

Robertson by submission
"I think like plus 140 Jillian Robertson by sub is how I would bet this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, citing her grappling advantage and recent submission wins. He notes Luana Pinheiro's two-fight losing streak and that Robertson is a big favorite. He expects Robertson to implement her grappling and get a submission or TKO finish.

submission or TKO finish
"I'll go Julian Robertson getting her grappling off and implementing that part of her game"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane picks Robertson confidently. He notes that Pinheiro has a one-dimensional judo clinch game and no real striking. Robertson is a diligent takedown artist and ruthless on the ground. He expects Robertson to get the takedown and likely submit Pinheiro.

"I'm going to pick Jillian Robertson to beat her."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 21 of 52 40% 41 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 77 of 105 73% 122 of 156 2 of 6 33% 2 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 11 of 37 29% 15 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 27 of 43 62% 36 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:23
2 Gillian Robertson 0 4 of 6 66% 13 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 27 of 31 87% 48 of 53 1 of 3 33% 1 0 4:49
3 Gillian Robertson 0 6 of 9 66% 13 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 0 23 of 31 74% 38 of 50 0 of 0 --- 1 0 4:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 21 of 52 40% 19 of 48 1 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 4 9 of 11
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 77 of 105 73% 67 of 94 9 of 9 1 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 0 67 of 81
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 11 of 37 29% 9 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 3
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 27 of 43 62% 23 of 39 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 19 0 of 0 19 of 24
2 Gillian Robertson 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 27 of 31 87% 22 of 26 5 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 26 of 30
3 Gillian Robertson 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 7
Michelle Waterson-Gomez 23 of 31 74% 22 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 4 0 of 0 22 of 27
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her youth, grappling advantage, and recent improvements. He notes that Waterson is 38 and on a losing streak, and that her takedown defense has declined. Cody believes Robertson will take Waterson down and control the fight on the ground, possibly winning by submission or decision. He also mentions that Robertson has been working on her cardio and game planning.

"Robertson at some point's gonna get it to the ground for two of the three rounds and either wins a decision or maybe latches onto the neck and subs her."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel believes Robertson's path is to get takedowns and maul Waterson on the ground, either by submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes Robertson holds the record for most submissions in women's UFC history. He sees Waterson's only path being keeping it standing or hitting a sneaky submission, but thinks Robertson will eventually get her down.

wins by submission or TKO
"I'm gonna go with Julian Robertson here to come through and possibly finish the karate hottie Michelle Waterson."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The host is confident Robertson will get a submission, citing her relentless grappling and ability to take the back. He notes Waterson-Gomez is on a four-fight losing streak and slowing down at 38. He expects Robertson to eventually secure a takedown and find a choke, recommending Robertson by submission as the best bet.

Robertson by submission
"Give me Jillian Robertson to get a submission over Michelle Waterson Gomez."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson, noting that Waterson is past her prime and has lost six of her last seven. He believes Robertson's grappling will be too much for Waterson, who has been submitted before. Paul also mentions that Robertson is younger and improving, while Waterson's best days are behind her.

"Give me the younger up-and-comer in Gillian Robertson who I see making improvements."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michelle Waterson-Gomez

The Guru picks Michelle Waterson-Gomez as an underdog over Gillian Robertson. He praises Waterson's takedown defense and striking, saying she is levels above Robertson on the feet. He doubts Robertson's ability to harm anyone standing. He expects Waterson to win by decision.

"I'm going to go with Michelle Waterson Gomez... Michelle Waterson shall win"
WIN vs Polyana Viana
TKO (punches) R2 3:12 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 23 of 39 58% 49 of 91 2 of 2 100% 1 0 6:06
Polyana Viana 0 12 of 41 29% 33 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 8 of 13 61% 16 of 23 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:52
Polyana Viana 0 8 of 18 44% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
2 Gillian Robertson 0 15 of 26 57% 33 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Polyana Viana 0 4 of 23 17% 13 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 23 of 39 58% 20 of 35 0 of 0 3 of 4 5 of 13 0 of 0 18 of 26
Polyana Viana 12 of 41 29% 10 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 1 9 of 37 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 8 of 13 61% 7 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 8
Polyana Viana 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 3 of 4
2 Gillian Robertson 15 of 26 57% 13 of 23 0 of 0 2 of 3 3 of 8 0 of 0 12 of 18
Polyana Viana 4 of 23 17% 3 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 1 4 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gillian Robertson vs. Polyana Viana
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Robertson (-230), Viana (+190)

Round 1
Strawweight grapplers are up next, with Robertson trying to even things up at 2-2 for Team Canada against her Brazilian counterpart. The referee is Kevin Macdonald. Both women are in orthodox stance, and Viana is the first to land, sticking Robertson with a long jab. They exchange jabs and Viana punctuates with a body kick. Robertson times a nice single-leg and hauls Viana down with ease. Robertson is on top in Viana’s half guard, leaning across her body and elbowing the ribs. Viana locks down the left leg and Robertson works for a straight armlock on the far arm. Robertson gives up on the arm attack and goes heavy on top, working to pass her guard as she does. Robertson throws two elbow strikes and slides right into mount. A couple more elbow strikes and Viana turns to the side. Robertson applies an arm-triangle choke and tries to move out to the side to finish. Viana manages to regain guard, but gives up her back a moment later. A minute to go in the round and Robertson is in back mount. She goes supine, rolls Viana on top of her, and Viana gives up mount. Robertson peels off for an armbar. It’s locked in and close to danger territory, but Viana extricates her arm and escapes. They return to their feet at the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Robertson
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Robertson

Round 2
Viana lands a low kick and slips the counter coming back her way. Viana tags Robertson with a straight right, then another, both of which glance off the guard. Robertson steps in, grabs a single-leg and gets another effortless takedown. She moves quickly to mount and Viana turns her back. Robertson is on top, drops an elbow and is in position to look for a choke if the opportunity presents itself. Robertson throws several hard punches that bounce off the forearm but still rattle the Brazilian’s head.
Robertson is all over Viana at the halfway point of the round, landing ground-and-pound. She keeps pouring it on and after 10 or more solid blows with no reaction from the turtled Viana, Macdonald steps in for the stoppage.

The Official Result
Gillian Robertson def. Polyana Viana R2 3:12 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Robertson but with medium confidence, noting her grappling credentials and record submission wins. He criticizes her inability to get fights to the ground despite being a great grappler, and acknowledges Viana's own dangerous ground game. He expects Robertson to win via grappling but is wary of Viana's toughness and cardio.

"she should be good enough to beat paana Viana here I say medium confidence for her to get it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady is confident in Robertson because Viana has poor takedown defense and is content to play off her back, which plays into Robertson's strength. He notes Robertson has good ground and pound and submissions, while Viana's only path is a knockout. He predicts Robertson will get the fight down and submit Viana in the second round.

second round submission
"I'll take her to win this fight fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her superior wrestling and grappling. He questions Viana's jiu-jitsu and cardio, noting she gets tired and gives up submissions. He believes Robertson will take her down and control the fight.

"Robertson... she's got the superior grappling and the superior pace."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Vreeland picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes Robertson is one-dimensional but dangerous on the mat, while Viana can crack on the feet but is susceptible to submissions. He expects Robertson to chain takedowns and have her way on top, leading to a submission win.

by submission
"I'm gonna go Julian Robertson here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Robertson vs Viana.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

I expect Robertson to drag this fight to the ground and utilize her superior Jiu-Jitsu to control top position and eventually open up a submission opportunity. Viana relies too much on her guard off her back, and Robertson has good enough Jiu-Jitsu to stay out of submission threats. I think it's just a matter of time once the fight hits the mat that Robertson can work to a dominant position and sink in a submission. I like the under 2.5 rounds prop as well.

under 2.5 rounds, submission victory
"gim me Robertson again chalky under 2 and 1 half is another spot that I really like"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Polyana Viana

Paul picks Viana as a chaos pick, noting her volatility and submission threat. He acknowledges Robertson is more likely to win but has a gut feeling Viana could pull off an armbar. He suggests Viana inside the distance as a better bet.

Viana inside the distance at +600
"I'll pick Polyana Viana to pull off the upset in something super stupid."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson, calling her a slight step above 'bottom feeder trash.' He criticizes Polyana Viana's lack of commitment and poor competition, noting she hasn't beaten anyone good. He believes Robertson can get top position safely and avoid Viana's submission threat.

"I'm going to go Julian Robertson now are both of them not good yes neither of them are really that good"
LOSS vs Tabatha Ricci
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tabatha Ricci 0 100 of 315 31% 101 of 318 3 of 8 37% 0 0 0:38
Gillian Robertson 0 76 of 219 34% 78 of 225 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tabatha Ricci 0 29 of 80 36% 30 of 81 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:30
Gillian Robertson 0 12 of 48 25% 14 of 53 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
2 Tabatha Ricci 0 31 of 114 27% 31 of 115 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:08
Gillian Robertson 0 36 of 86 41% 36 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Tabatha Ricci 0 40 of 121 33% 40 of 122 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Gillian Robertson 0 28 of 85 32% 28 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tabatha Ricci 100 of 315 31% 59 of 257 17 of 25 24 of 33 95 of 306 3 of 7 2 of 2
Gillian Robertson 76 of 219 34% 31 of 150 24 of 40 21 of 29 74 of 212 2 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tabatha Ricci 29 of 80 36% 17 of 60 2 of 6 10 of 14 27 of 77 0 of 1 2 of 2
Gillian Robertson 12 of 48 25% 4 of 34 4 of 9 4 of 5 12 of 46 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Tabatha Ricci 31 of 114 27% 16 of 94 8 of 10 7 of 10 31 of 112 0 of 2 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 36 of 86 41% 14 of 56 9 of 12 13 of 18 35 of 83 1 of 3 0 of 0
3 Tabatha Ricci 40 of 121 33% 26 of 103 7 of 9 7 of 9 37 of 117 3 of 4 0 of 0
Gillian Robertson 28 of 85 32% 13 of 60 11 of 19 4 of 6 27 of 83 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Angelo picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her strength, pressure, and superior grappling. He believes Ricci is too strong for Gillian Robertson to take down and will be the better grappler on the ground. He has half a unit on Ricci at -121 and notes the line has yo-yoed. He sees Ricci as the next evolution of the wrestle-boxer style.

half unit on Tabatha Ricci at -121
"I just like Tabitha Ricci to get it done I have half a unit on her at minus 121"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Big Brady leans towards Tabatha Ricci, believing she will be the better wrestler and striker. He notes Robertson's poor takedown defense (25%) and tendency to accept being on her back. He thinks Ricci's Judo background and BJJ black belt will allow her to get takedowns and control the fight. He predicts a decision win but acknowledges it could go either way.

"I'll say Tabitha Richie grinds this one out and wins a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson, citing her size and strength advantage. He notes her grappling credentials but acknowledges her struggles against good wrestlers. He thinks the plus money is worth it and expects a close fight.

"I'll take the plus money on whoever it is and it's Tabitha Richie so I'm taking the plus money is on Jillian Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Connor picks Ricci because she is strong, an excellent grappler, and increasingly comfortable on the feet. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Connor also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.

"I got to pick Ricci just to be able to dart in and land big right hands. And hit double legs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Daniel Levi picks Tabatha Ricci, citing her ability to keep the fight standing or wrestle in reverse. He notes Robertson's submission threat but thinks Ricci's jiu-jitsu and physicality can neutralize it. He believes Ricci has more paths to victory and can survive on the ground if needed.

"I just I just see more paths for Richie"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

The host picks Tabatha Ricci to win by decision. He believes Ricci is a superior grappler and wrestler who will get top position and control Robertson. He notes Robertson's tendency to play off her back and thinks Ricci will be too privy to her submission attempts. He expects Ricci to dominate the fight with top control and win a decision.

"I think that Tabitha Richie will shut all of that down I think she is a superior Grappler"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Paul picks Ricci, citing her striking advantage and top control. He notes her training with Mackenzie Dern and thinks she can avoid Robertson's submissions. He mentions he already bet Ricci at -125.

"I've got yeah minus 125 Tabitha Ricci."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson over the majority pick Tabatha Ricci. He believes Robertson's length and reach advantage will allow her to lead the dance, and she does more damage on the ground with ground and pound. He thinks both are grapplers but Robertson's aggression and experience will win her a split decision based on damage.

Predicts split decision win.
"I'm actually gonna go with Jillian Robertson here over Tabitha for Richie"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tabatha Ricci

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Ricci. He notes that Robertson's winning condition is narrow: she must get on top and dominate with submissions or ground and pound. Ricci is difficult to take down and is rapidly improving everywhere, while Robertson had to learn striking and still looks awkward. Zane also points out that Ricci seems to enjoy striking and will look significantly faster than Robertson. He suggests Ricci could even choose to avoid grappling entirely and work on her striking against a slower, more cumbersome opponent.

"I think I'm with you. I just think Julian Robertson's wind condition is very narrow, like she has to be able to out wrestle somebody because she has to get on top of them."
Submission (armbar) R2 4:21 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 26 of 39 66% 46 of 62 2 of 3 66% 1 0 6:23
Piera Rodríguez 0 12 of 33 36% 25 of 47 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 13 of 25 52% 20 of 34 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Piera Rodríguez 0 12 of 29 41% 24 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
2 Gillian Robertson 0 13 of 14 92% 26 of 28 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:11
Piera Rodríguez 0 0 of 4 0% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 26 of 39 66% 20 of 29 1 of 4 5 of 6 12 of 23 0 of 0 14 of 16
Piera Rodríguez 12 of 33 36% 10 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 13 of 25 52% 8 of 16 1 of 4 4 of 5 11 of 22 0 of 0 2 of 3
Piera Rodríguez 12 of 29 41% 10 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gillian Robertson 13 of 14 92% 12 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 13
Piera Rodríguez 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Angelo picks Piera Rodríguez as a live underdog, citing her nasty striking, finishing ability, and 77% takedown defense. He notes that Gillian Robertson's takedowns are terrible and her striking is not good enough to hang. He expects Rodríguez to defend takedowns, win striking exchanges, and potentially get her own takedowns. He has a small quarter-unit bet on her at +102.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +102
"I have a small quarter of a uni money line bet on for her Rodriguez at plus 102"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Big Brady picks Piera Rodríguez to win a close decision. He notes Rodríguez's striking advantage and solid takedown defense (77%), while Robertson has poor takedown defense (28%). He is concerned about Robertson's weight cut to strawweight but leans Rodríguez due to her ability to keep the fight standing and potentially land takedowns.

"I actually lean uh the Rodriguez side I think she's going to have some advantages here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody bet Robertson earlier at plus money and notes her grappling is strong, especially at strawweight where she is undefeated. He thinks the weight cut may help her strength and control. He acknowledges Rodriguez's improvements but sticks with Robertson.

Bet Robertson at +109 earlier
"I've got Robertson at like a half decent price but um not gonna be stunned if I uh if I absolutely lose it but I'm gonna pick Robertson"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Connor agrees, noting that Robertson's striking is bad and she looks surprised when hit. He believes Rodriguez has the control of distance and wrestling to handle Robertson's grappling, and that Robertson's only chance is to get on top, but the process of getting there is chaotic.

"Yeah, I'm inclined to agree. I would really like to see Robertson turn that corner and it might still happen."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Rodríguez's striking and improved grappling will be too much for Robertson, who is one-dimensional with her BJJ. Robertson struggles to get fights to the ground and gets outstruck. Rodríguez has shown good takedown defense and can work back to her feet. Her aggression and clinch knees should win rounds. Robertson's experience won't overcome the skill gap.

"I like everything that I'm seeing from Rodriguez I'm loving the improvements I'm seeing as well and I would be happy to take her as the underdog."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Paul likes Rodriguez as a slight underdog, citing her wrestling, cardio, and training camp. He thinks Robertson's striking is poor and that Rodriguez can win the stand-up and avoid submissions. He expects a 29-28 decision for Rodriguez.

"I think she wins the fight does it didn't really matter what the odds were she could have been the minus 130 versus plus 110 Julian Robinson I was picking Rodriguez"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

The MMA Guru edges Piera Rodríguez in a close fight, citing her well-rounded skills, striking accuracy, and takedown defense (77%). He was initially leaning toward Robertson but was impressed by Rodríguez's tape. He thinks Rodríguez can stuff takedowns and outpoint Robertson, though Robertson's grappling is always a threat.

"I will Edge Pierre Rodriguez"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Piera Rodríguez

Zane picks Rodriguez because she looks controlled, moves in combination, and gets out of the pocket quickly. He notes that Robertson's striking is bad and she closes her eyes when hit, and that Rodriguez has the requisite control of distance and is a solid wrestler.

"I'm going to pick Rodriguez. I think she's looked controlled in her fights."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Gillian Robertson but expresses nervousness. He acknowledges Robertson's poor takedowns and atrocious striking, but believes her relentless pressure and submission threats will cause Amanda Lemos to freeze. He also notes the smaller cage helps Robertson. He points out that Lemos has good takedown defense, having defended nine takedowns from Tatiana Suarez, but still thinks Robertson's volume will win out.

"I'm a little nervous, but I do think Jillian wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady picks Gillian Robertson to win by third-round submission. He likes her move to strawweight (5-1 record) and improved wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Lemos's age (38) and 64% takedown defense, and believes Robertson can get takedowns, control top position, and eventually submit her.

"Give me Gillian Robertson to win this fight by third round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Cody picks Robertson but with caution. He highlights her improved wrestling and submission game under Dean Thomas, but worries about Lemos' takedown defense and power. He notes Robertson's striking is poor and if she can't get takedowns, she's in trouble. He advises not going too heavy on her.

"I'm probably just going to not have the coonies to take the dog play and take Robertson."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Connor picks Robertson, citing that Lemos will engage in grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out, and Robertson's A-game is grappling. He compares it to Lemos's loss to Tatiana Suarez, where Lemos willingly clinched.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"I got to pick her."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

James picks Gillian Robertson to win inside the distance via ground and pound or submission. He highlights Robertson's relentless grappling and Lemos' tendency to regrapple and make poor decisions on the ground. He notes that Lemos has a striking advantage but expects Robertson to eventually get takedowns and finish. He suggests the fight not going to decision as a potential bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"my official prediction boys will be Jillian Robinson gets this one done inside the distance with a ground and pound or submission attack on the map."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Amanda Lemos

The host picks Lemos to win by knockout, believing her power and defensive grappling will be too much for Robertson. He expects Lemos to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually finishing Robertson. He notes that Robertson's lack of striking and physicality will be exposed, and that Lemos's experience against strong grapplers gives her the edge.

Lemos by KO
"I'm going to go with the Brazilian here. I know she's getting up there in age... Lemos has enough defensive grappling to shut that down from Robertson, keep this in the striking game and eventually find that knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Paul picks Robertson confidently, citing her recent run, coaching from Dean Thomas, and improved wrestling. He believes she will get takedowns and control the fight. He notes Lemos has low volume and can be taken down, though he acknowledges the price is steep.

"Julian Robertson's a pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Gillian Robertson

The Guru picks Gillian Robertson, despite her lack of striking power, because her grappling is consistent and Lemos has been out-grappled by top opponents. He thinks Robertson will get top position early and submit her in the second round, though he acknowledges Lemos could win if she stuffs a takedown and lands a big shot.

Prediction: submission in the second round
"I'm going to go with Gillian Robertson getting this one done by submission in the second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Gillian Robertson

Zane leans Robertson, noting that Lemos will likely initiate grappling if she doesn't knock Robertson out immediately, which plays into Robertson's strength. He acknowledges Robertson could get nuked on the feet but thinks Lemos's tendency to wrestle will cost her.

Odds: Lemos opened at +210, currently +170; Robertson opened at -250, currently -195.
"Yeah, I think I'm leaning Robertson. I mean, it's very clearly a fight where she could get nuked, but she could just hold it together."