UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026 · Featherweight · Completed
UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos Next Fight
Age 41
Height 5' 6"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 24
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Josh Emmett
3.67 SLpM
35.0% Str. Acc.
4.52 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.07 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
43.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kevin Vallejos
6.12 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.41 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.66 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
84.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Josh Emmett - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Vallejos
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.

"Kevin lights up Josh here. Kevin is then immediately in the rankings."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.

"give me Kevin Vallejos and Kevin Vallejos to win by very dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.

"it feels like Kevin Velahos is the uh the clear pick here. He's 17 years younger than Josh Emmen, and that kind of is the big difference maker for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Connor comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide.
"I'm gonna bank on his durability. And as provided he's durable enough, he should have this one in the bag."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.

"I am going to say that Kevin Vallejo does win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.

over 3.5 rounds (approx -105)
"I'll still lean with Vallejo here. I think he ends up being a little bit more active, landing maybe a little bit more damage... but plus 475 on Josham, it seems too good to pass up."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.

"If I was forced to make a bet right now, I'd probably take a small shot on EMTT um and pray."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Kevin Vallejos

The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.

Prediction: second or third round TKO
"We are going to destroy Josh Emmett... second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Zane comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide considering Emmett's one-punch power.
"You have to pick Vallejos at this point. Yeah, I think I agree. It's not clear cut, though. It really isn't."
LOSS vs Youssef Zalal
Submission R1 1:38 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Youssef Zalal 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Youssef Zalal 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Youssef Zalal 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Youssef Zalal
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Zalal (-440), Emmett (+340)

Round 1
The UFC knew exactly what it was doing when it paired brick-fisted Emmett (19-5, 10-5 UFC) with whirling dervish Zalal (17-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC), and a passing of the torch moment may come when the dust settles. While Emmett may have passed the 40-year-old threshold, the last thing to go is the power. Referee Jason Herzog dons his proverbial hard hat as the two featherweight contenders touch ‘em up.
Zalal approaches with his hands wide by his sides, and his leg ready to fly. Zalal lands a quick kick and darts out of the way when Emmett bears down on him. Zalal whiffs on a front kick, and he shoots for a double when Emmett is about to strike. Zalal succeeds in grounding the Team Alpha Male-trained athlete with ease, and he advances to three-quarter mount while clinging to an arm-triangle setup. Emmett muscles his man over, and Zalal isolates his foe’s arm in pursuit of an armbar. Emmett keeps his weight pressed down on top, and he starts stepping over to try to get out of the sub. With Emmett’s arms both trapped, he is stunned and has to call out “tap tap tap” in order to signal that he is done and does not want to get his limb snapped. The crowd is silenced as Herzog steps in, not entirely knowing what has just happened. Fans start booing until they realize that Emmett verbally surrendered, and then they chill out because Zalal just notched an extremely impressive victory over a perennial contender in under two minutes. In victory, Zalal declares that he will be champion one day.

The Official Result
Youssef Zalal def. Josh Emmett R1 1:38 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Angelo picks Youssef Zalal, citing his ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler. He notes Zalal's high fight IQ and low strikes absorbed per minute. He acknowledges Josh Emmett's power and experience but thinks Zalal's versatility and youth will be key. He is surprised Zalal is almost a 4-to-1 favorite and would set the line at -170.

"I'm going to pick Ysef Zal here. Ysef's ability to be an outside distance striker or a full-blown grappler is going to suit him well here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Big Brady sees this as an easy win for Zalal, who is in his prime at 29, while Emmett is 40 and fighting at featherweight. He believes Zalal can use his speed and footwork to avoid Emmett's power and mix in takedowns. He predicts Zalal by decision.

"Give me Zo use allow by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Connor picks Zalal, agreeing that Zalal's movement and ability to fight at range will give Emmett problems. He notes that Emmett's only major improvement was learning to throw punches at two speeds, but he still lacks dexterity and cage-cutting skills. Connor also mentions that Zalal's performance against Calvin Katter showed he can neutralize opponents, though he cautions that Emmett's power is a constant threat.

"Yeah, I agree. Yeah, I'm picking Zolol as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Youssef Zalal

Zalal's style is expected to be too difficult for Emmett to track. Emmett may land some big shots, but Zalal should flow with them and get off his own offense, winning a boring decision.

"I believe Zalal's style will be a little bit too difficult for Emmett to get a track on him... I think that will lead to Zalal winning a pretty boring decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

The MMA Guru picks Youssef Zalal, believing his counter-striking and movement will frustrate Josh Emmett. He notes Emmett's predictable overhands and lack of grappling. He predicts a late TKO via knee up the middle.

TKO win
"I'm going to go with Youssef Zalal to get this one done. And I'm going to say late rounds TKO, knee up the middle."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Youssef Zalal

Zane picks Zalal because he believes Zalal can frustrate Emmett with movement and range control, similar to how Laron Murphy and Yair Rodriguez did. He notes that Emmett lacks a range game and struggles when opponents refuse to engage in the pocket. Zane also points out that Zalal is a dangerous striker with good combinations and that Emmett's limited offensive toolkit makes him vulnerable to a neutralizing game plan.

"I just think uses the law can go out there and have that cater fight. And yeah, he might be in more danger than he was against cater in those bad positions, but he might be just as able to …"
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
KO (punch) R1 1:57 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 2 of 10 20% 1 of 4 1 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Bryce Mitchell 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-225), Emmett (+185)

Round 1
On short notice, this featherweight pairing turned from a striker’s delight to a classic striker vs. grappler affair. Ready to throw hands aplenty will be Emmett (18-4, 9-4 UFC), while late replacement and grappling ace Mitchell (16-1, 7-1 UFC) wishes to shut that all down. 2023 Referee of the Year Herb Dean will be the third man in the Octagon, and the fighters are glad to be fighting tonight but do not express it with a glove touch. Mitchell starts off with pressure, but Emmett reaches out with a right hand to the body. Mitchell backs off and aims a low kick, and Emmett evades it and responds in kind. The fighters keep a wide berth from one another, and Emmett eventually moves forward and aims another right to the midsection. Emmett gets off a left hand and tries to follow it with a huge right hook, but Mitchell is out of the way before the latter connects. With malice in his eyes, Emmett unloads a bomb of a right hand that detonates flush on Mitchell’s chin. Mitchell goes down on his side in a heap, and he is completely out. Emmett lets out a guttural victory scream as Dean grabs him from behind to make sure that Emmett will not pursue a follow-up shot. As Dean lets go, he tends to the fallen Mitchell, who begins convulsing in unconsciousness. Medical staff members rush into the cage when alerted to Mitchell’s scary condition, as Mitchell goes into a full-blown grand mal seizure. After some time, Mitchell recovers and learns that he was starched. He tries to get back to his feet, but he cannot stand on his own. Mitchell is helped out of the cage, in good spirits despite just suffering a crushing defeat, and when Emmett feels comfortable celebrating, he does so with his corner of Team Alpha Male—which went 3-0 tonight, after Fili, Garbrandt and Emmett all recorded knockout wins. Hello, "Knockout of the Year"? You have a new contender calling.

The Official Result
Josh Emmett def. Bryce Mitchell R1 1:57 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell, trusting his wrestling to overcome Josh Emmett's power. He notes that Emmett is older and has abandoned wrestling for knockouts, while Mitchell is a relentless grappler. He has a half-unit bet on Mitchell at -140.

Half unit bet at -140; fight goes full 15 minutes
"Bryce Mitchell is the pick I got that bet on him and I trust him to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett as an underdog, citing concerns about Bryce Mitchell's short notice and reliance on relentless wrestling. He notes Emmett's wrestling background and that no one has consistently taken him down and controlled him. Brady highlights Emmett's power (7 consecutive fights with a knockdown) and believes if Mitchell can't get takedowns, he'll get knocked out. He predicts a damage-based decision or knockout for Emmett.

"I lean Josh EMT here I don't know whether he does win by knockout I could see like a damage based decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Mitchell, arguing that Mitchell's wrestling and physical strength will be too much for Emmett. He notes that Emmett has poor takedown defense and that Mitchell will grind on him, break him down, and secure a finish. Cody also points out that Emmett is 38 and coming off a brutal beating from Ilia Topuria, while Mitchell is a contender on the rise. He expects Mitchell to win inside the distance.

Bryce Mitchell inside the distance
"Bryce Mitchell ends up just is getting the takedowns... grinds on him and secure the victory inside the distance"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Lucrative James picks Bryce Mitchell, believing he will get takedowns and work from top. He notes that Josh Emmett gets taken down often and gives up his back, and that Emmett is slowing down. He thinks Mitchell's tenacity and youth (29) will be key, and that even on the feet Mitchell can hold his own. He sees this as a spot where the favorite is justified, unlike other fights on the card.

"I think that Bryce Mitchell gets a takedown and I think that Bryce Mitchell does work from top."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The host believes Mitchell's smothering grappling will be too much for Emmett, who is 38 and coming off a brutal loss to Topuria. He notes that Mitchell can close the distance, initiate the clinch, and bully Emmett to the mat, where he can grind out a decision or find a submission. He acknowledges Emmett's power but thinks Mitchell's durability and ability to avoid clean shots will allow him to implement his game plan. He predicts Mitchell by decision.

Mitchell by decision
"I think Mitchell decided to accept this fight on short notice because he saw the openings that he could Implement to try to get his hand raised here so give me Bryce Mitchell and Bryce Mitchell by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul picks Emmett at +200, questioning why Mitchell is such a big favorite. He notes that Emmett has power and can make it a tough night for Mitchell if the fight stays standing. He acknowledges Emmett's takedown defense is a concern (46%) but believes Emmett's explosiveness and power give him a chance. Paul is not fully confident but sees value at the underdog price.

"my official pick is Josh EMT at plus 200"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The Guru picks Josh Emmett over Bryce Mitchell, noting Emmett's power, wrestling background, and full camp (originally preparing for Giga Chikadze). He believes Mitchell's takedowns won't succeed due to Emmett's short, stocky build and takedown defense, and that Mitchell will be vulnerable on the feet. He predicts a TKO win for Emmett.

Emmett by TKO
"I'm going to go Josh EMT getting it done over Bryce Mitchell by TKO... I can just see Bryce Mitchell not getting his takedowns in the first and then being a bit weird looking on the feet"
LOSS vs Ilia Topuria
Decision (unanimous) (50–44, 50–42, 49–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ilia Topuria 0 87 of 305 28% 89 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 152 of 344 44% 171 of 365 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ilia Topuria 0 14 of 68 20% 14 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ilia Topuria 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ilia Topuria 0 31 of 81 38% 31 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 37 of 91 40% 37 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Ilia Topuria 0 13 of 52 25% 15 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 1 56 of 100 56% 62 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:58
5 Ilia Topuria 0 10 of 36 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 8 of 22 36% 21 of 36 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ilia Topuria 87 of 305 28% 43 of 232 26 of 53 18 of 20 87 of 305 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 152 of 344 44% 124 of 302 9 of 16 19 of 26 114 of 289 2 of 2 36 of 53
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ilia Topuria 14 of 68 20% 8 of 58 4 of 8 2 of 2 14 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 21 of 56 37% 14 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ilia Topuria 19 of 68 27% 8 of 47 6 of 15 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 30 of 75 40% 25 of 66 0 of 0 5 of 9 25 of 68 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Ilia Topuria 31 of 81 38% 16 of 60 7 of 12 8 of 9 31 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 37 of 91 40% 30 of 80 3 of 5 4 of 6 37 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Ilia Topuria 13 of 52 25% 6 of 39 6 of 12 1 of 1 13 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 56 of 100 56% 50 of 90 2 of 6 4 of 4 26 of 55 2 of 2 28 of 43
5 Ilia Topuria 10 of 36 27% 5 of 28 3 of 6 2 of 2 10 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Josh Emmett 8 of 22 36% 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 19 0 of 0 3 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Josh Emmett vs. Ilia Topuria
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)

Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett

Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria

Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)

The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.

"Ilya should absolutely work Josh Eman here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.

first round sub
"I'm gonna take the 40 to win this fight by first round sub"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.

Live betting recommended; considers taking Emmett if Topuria drops early.
"I actually kind of think I like this one better from a live betting standpoint."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.

Odds too wide; Topuria -321 is too high given Emmett's power. Emmett could be the 'hot stove' that hurts Topuria.
"I do favor Toporia, but it cannot be ignored that like the fight I see Toporia winning is... 60 40, a suicide mission."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.

No bet at -310; thinks line is about right.
"I think tapiro is the crisper boxer I think he's better Jiu Jitsu... I tend to think the period is gonna outbox and finish them in the mid late rounds but yeah he's my pick but I have no bet …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.

violence (fight doesn't go to decision)
"I'm gonna go with the young girl fighter here in toporia but I think the line is a little bit too wide if anybody's looking to chase value on Josh Ahmed I think the value at least from my perspective …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.

"I think the line is relatively pretty accurate here at minus 325 like if they fought 10 times he probably wins seven to eight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.

Mentions that both can knock each other out in the first round; notes Emmett got gifted decisions against Kattar and Ige, implying he's overranked.
"I'm picking Ilya to Puria to win in no way at whatsoever should the poll on topology be 92 Superior eight percent Josh Emmett... this is arguably like a 60 40 type of fight to Ilya to Puria"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Ilia Topuria

Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.

Odds too wide; Topuria opened -299 now -321, Emmett +253 to +270. Topuria's best win is Bryce Mitchell, not a comparable physical test.
"I got to pick Toporia to the assertiveness and the persistence in the form... I have to pick Toporia here."
LOSS vs Yair Rodríguez
Submission (triangle choke) R2 4:19 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yair Rodríguez 0 62 of 107 57% 98 of 143 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 22 of 52 42% 35 of 72 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yair Rodríguez 0 26 of 53 49% 32 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 12 of 26 46% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:27
2 Yair Rodríguez 0 36 of 54 66% 66 of 84 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Josh Emmett 0 10 of 26 38% 17 of 34 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yair Rodríguez 62 of 107 57% 36 of 76 18 of 22 8 of 9 47 of 87 7 of 9 8 of 11
Josh Emmett 22 of 52 42% 17 of 44 4 of 7 1 of 1 13 of 40 1 of 2 8 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yair Rodríguez 26 of 53 49% 14 of 39 7 of 9 5 of 5 21 of 44 1 of 2 4 of 7
Josh Emmett 12 of 26 46% 10 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 1 of 2 7 of 9
2 Yair Rodríguez 36 of 54 66% 22 of 37 11 of 13 3 of 4 26 of 43 6 of 7 4 of 4
Josh Emmett 10 of 26 38% 7 of 20 2 of 5 1 of 1 9 of 25 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Angelo picks Josh Emmett, citing his power and wrestling base, though he notes Emmett doesn't use his wrestling often. He believes Emmett's power will be the difference, especially if he can stay close and grind. He acknowledges Yair's creativity and athleticism but thinks Emmett's power and pressure will win. He has a half-unit bet on Emmett at +135.

"Emmett's the pick and I do have a half a unit on him at plus 135"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady thinks this is a close fight and picks Emmett for the upset. He notes Emmett's power and volume, and thinks Emmett will have the bigger moments. He expects a decision win for Emmett, similar to the Kattar fight, and says the line should be closer.

"I'm gonna pick Josh Emmett here for the upset win I'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Cody picks Rodríguez but is not confident due to Rodríguez's inconsistency. He notes Rodríguez looked great against Max Holloway with improved cardio and kicking volume, but Emmett has power and wrestling he doesn't use offensively. He thinks Emmett's path is a big shot, but Rodríguez's chin and volume should edge him out. He finds the -175 line unappealing and won't bet it.

"I just think yeah Rodriguez pulls out with it"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Connor picks Rodríguez, citing his diverse kicking game and durability as key factors. He notes that Emmett's style is one-dimensional and that Rodríguez can attack from range with kicks, which Emmett struggles to check. Connor also mentions that Emmett's wrestling is not a reliable threat, as he rarely uses it. He believes Rodríguez's toughness and ability to absorb punches will allow him to outwork Emmett over three rounds.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Emmett's power punching and forward pressure will be too much for Rodríguez as the fight goes on. Rodríguez slows down in later rounds, as seen against Jeremy Stephens. Emmett has great cardio and defensive wrestling to keep it standing. He will close the distance and land big combinations, likely finishing in the fourth or fifth round. Rodríguez's unorthodox striking may be competitive early, but Emmett's durability and pressure will take over.

"I think Josh Sherman will get closer and closer with those big punches and it's going to continue to demoralize Yaya Rodriguez and I think just slowly but surely Josh Yemen is going to get closer and closer to eventually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Paul slightly favors Rodríguez on volume, noting Emmett has a power advantage but Rodríguez has better durability. He expects a close competitive fight and thinks the line is accurate, so he won't bet it.

"I'll ever so slightly think that yair Rodriguez edges them out on volume but at minus 160 I mean I think that the books have this one pretty correct"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

The MMA Guru picks Yair Rodríguez over Josh Emmett, citing Emmett's controversial wins and Rodríguez's improved performance against Ortega. He predicts a front kick KO in the first round, noting Rodríguez's chin and Emmett's tendency to get hit. He believes Rodríguez is on a higher level than Emmett.

first round KO via front kick
"I'm gonna go Yaya Rodriguez winning over Josh Emmett"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yair Rodríguez

Zane also picks Rodríguez, emphasizing his improved composure and durability. He notes that Emmett's power is a threat, but Rodríguez has never been knocked out and can take shots. Zane highlights that Rodríguez's kicks will be a major problem for Emmett, who has shown vulnerability to low kicks. He also points out that Emmett's wrestling is not a consistent factor, and Rodríguez's range management will frustrate him.

"I also favor yahir. I this was one that kind of threw me because I looked at it and i'm like oh josh emmett's a better fighter than yahir rodriguez... This is not a good fight for josh emmett."
WIN vs Calvin Kattar
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 130 of 375 34% 131 of 376 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 107 of 332 32% 107 of 332 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 14 of 39 35% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Josh Emmett 0 22 of 78 28% 22 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 26 of 73 35% 26 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 19 of 66 28% 19 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 27 of 77 35% 27 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 41 of 106 38% 41 of 106 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 21 of 80 26% 21 of 80 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
5 Josh Emmett 0 34 of 86 39% 34 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Calvin Kattar 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 130 of 375 34% 114 of 351 15 of 23 1 of 1 130 of 375 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 107 of 332 32% 73 of 286 26 of 37 8 of 9 106 of 330 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 39 35% 12 of 36 1 of 2 1 of 1 14 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 11 of 35 31% 8 of 32 1 of 1 2 of 2 10 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 22 of 78 28% 20 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 26 of 73 35% 19 of 63 6 of 9 1 of 1 26 of 73 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 19 of 66 28% 18 of 62 1 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 27 of 77 35% 18 of 65 8 of 11 1 of 1 27 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 41 of 106 38% 35 of 98 6 of 8 0 of 0 41 of 106 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 21 of 80 26% 13 of 68 5 of 9 3 of 3 21 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 34 of 86 39% 29 of 79 5 of 7 0 of 0 34 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Calvin Kattar 22 of 67 32% 15 of 58 6 of 7 1 of 2 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Angelo picks Calvin Kattar, citing his superior boxing, footwork, and technique. He notes Kattar's 90% takedown defense and believes he can avoid Emmett's power. He acknowledges the possibility of Emmett winning by power and damage (like Font vs Vera) but thinks Kattar's pressure and volume will win the decision.

"i do like calvin qatar to win with his footwork and his technique but it's not completely out of the question that calvin vs emmett looks like font vs vera"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Big Brady picks Calvin Kattar to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Kattar is younger, taller, and has a reach advantage, and is the better striker with excellent boxing combinations. He acknowledges Emmett's power and seven-fight knockdown streak, but trusts Kattar's chin (never knocked down) and believes Kattar's volume and length will wear Emmett down for a late finish.

fourth round knockout
"I like calvin keator to win i like common cater i'll say to win bye i'll say fourth round knockout for calvin keator"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Cody believes Calvin Kattar's volume and technical striking will overwhelm Josh Emmett over five rounds. He notes Emmett's power is dangerous but Kattar's durability and head movement are elite, and Emmett rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kattar to pull away late and suggests Kattar by decision as a prop.

Calvin Kattar by decision
"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Daniel Levi leans Calvin Kattar as the minute winner, believing Kattar's jab and improved striking variety will keep him ahead on the scorecards. However, he emphasizes that Josh Emmett's one-punch power and ability to steal rounds make this a dog-or-pass betting situation, especially with Kattar at -230. He notes Kattar absorbs a lot of strikes and Emmett has knocked down every featherweight opponent, so a finish is possible either way. Levi ultimately sees it as a coin flip and prefers not to lay the heavy juice.

dog or pass situation; Kattar -230 is too high; Emmett +195 is tempting
"i lean cater it's just minus 250 odds are not indicative of a coin flip fight so i see this at the betting window being a dogger pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Kattar's volume and technical superiority. He points out that Emmett's power is a threat but Kattar's durability and five-round experience favor him. He notes the over/under is set high, suggesting a decision is likely, and he picks Kattar as the rightful favorite.

"i think calvin kater's just going to put volume on him all day and slowly start to pull away the longer the fight goes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Calvin Kattar

The MMA Guru picks Calvin Kattar, trusting his technique and durability. He notes that Josh Emmett has power but has struggled against tough opponents like Jeremy Stephens and Dan Ige. He believes Kattar has better boxing, a good chin, and a front kick to keep Emmett at distance. He predicts Kattar will get hurt early but recover and finish Emmett in the third round via TKO.

third round tko
"i'm going with cater over emmett... i see calvin kater getting this one done by third round tko"
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 269: Oliveira vs. Poirier · Dec 11, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 1 60 of 165 36% 62 of 167 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:47
Dan Ige 0 70 of 168 41% 73 of 171 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 1 14 of 31 45% 15 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:36
Dan Ige 0 23 of 50 46% 25 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
2 Josh Emmett 0 26 of 64 40% 26 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Dan Ige 0 25 of 56 44% 26 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Josh Emmett 0 20 of 70 28% 21 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dan Ige 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 60 of 165 36% 51 of 151 7 of 12 2 of 2 48 of 151 5 of 7 7 of 7
Dan Ige 70 of 168 41% 54 of 147 9 of 13 7 of 8 68 of 164 1 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 14 of 31 45% 11 of 26 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 21 3 of 3 7 of 7
Dan Ige 23 of 50 46% 18 of 45 2 of 2 3 of 3 22 of 49 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Josh Emmett 26 of 64 40% 21 of 58 4 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 61 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 25 of 56 44% 20 of 50 3 of 4 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 20 of 70 28% 19 of 67 1 of 3 0 of 0 20 of 69 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 22 of 62 35% 16 of 52 4 of 7 2 of 3 21 of 59 1 of 3 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 8, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Big Brady picks Josh Emmett to win, but with some hesitation due to Emmett's age (36) and layoff. He notes that Emmett is one of the hardest hitters in the division, with knockdowns in his last six fights. Ige is durable and has never been finished, but has been knocked down before. Brady expects Emmett's power to be the key, possibly leading to a decision win if he can't finish Ige. He also mentions that Ige is younger and the line movement favors Ige.

"give me josh emmett to win though i think the power will be key here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Daniel Levi picks Josh Emmett to win, highlighting his incredible volume and power. He notes that Emmett's strike output increases as the fight progresses, unlike typical power punchers. Levi mentions Emmett's wrestling background and his most knockdowns in featherweight history. He believes Emmett is a bad matchup for Dan Ige, who tends to take rounds off and has defensive issues. Levi sees value in Emmett at -150, opening at -200, and expects a knockout or dominant decision.

"i think josh emmett's a bad matchup for dan ige he opened minus 200 he's currently minus 150 i think there's a hell of a lot of value there"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

The MMA Guru picks Josh Emmett to win by decision (29-28). He praises Emmett's power, footwork, and technical striking, noting his ability to drop opponents with jabs. He believes Dan Ige was exposed by Korean Zombie and lacks the technical ability to handle Emmett's power and movement.

29-28 decision
"i'm gonna go with josh emmett here i think he's pretty underrated in the featherweight division"
Kevin Vallejos - Fight History
WIN vs Josh Emmett
KO R1 3:33 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 3 of 12 25% 3 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 2 36 of 55 65% 43 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 36 of 55 65% 30 of 49 4 of 4 2 of 2 12 of 21 10 of 14 14 of 20
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.

"Kevin lights up Josh here. Kevin is then immediately in the rankings."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.

"give me Kevin Vallejos and Kevin Vallejos to win by very dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.

"it feels like Kevin Velahos is the uh the clear pick here. He's 17 years younger than Josh Emmen, and that kind of is the big difference maker for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Connor comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide.
"I'm gonna bank on his durability. And as provided he's durable enough, he should have this one in the bag."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.

"I am going to say that Kevin Vallejo does win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.

over 3.5 rounds (approx -105)
"I'll still lean with Vallejo here. I think he ends up being a little bit more active, landing maybe a little bit more damage... but plus 475 on Josham, it seems too good to pass up."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.

"If I was forced to make a bet right now, I'd probably take a small shot on EMTT um and pray."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Kevin Vallejos

The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.

Prediction: second or third round TKO
"We are going to destroy Josh Emmett... second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Zane comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide considering Emmett's one-punch power.
"You have to pick Vallejos at this point. Yeah, I think I agree. It's not clear cut, though. It really isn't."
WIN vs Giga Chikadze
KO R2 1:29 · UFC on ESPN: Royval vs. Kape · Dec 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Giga Chikadze 0 12 of 22 54% 19 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 20 of 32 62% 23 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Giga Chikadze 0 9 of 17 52% 16 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 0 9 of 18 50% 12 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
2 Giga Chikadze 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 11 of 14 78% 11 of 14 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Giga Chikadze 12 of 22 54% 2 of 10 10 of 10 0 of 2 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 20 of 32 62% 14 of 24 2 of 3 4 of 5 15 of 26 1 of 2 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Giga Chikadze 9 of 17 52% 1 of 8 8 of 8 0 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 9 of 18 50% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 3 8 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Giga Chikadze 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 11 of 14 78% 8 of 11 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 10 0 of 0 4 of 4
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Vallejos, citing Giga's age, injuries, and lack of interest. He notes Vallejos's youth, durability, and pressure style, and expects him to outwork Giga by mixing in takedowns and volume. He predicts a decision win for Vallejos.

Vallejos by decision +150
"I got Kevin Vallejos to get the job done here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Lucrative James is a fan of Kevin Vallejos and picks him to win, possibly by knockout. He highlights Vallejos' youth, athleticism, power, and multiple paths to victory, including grappling and boxing. He notes Giga Chikadze's cardio issues and susceptibility to grappling, and believes Vallejos can finish him. He projects Vallejos as a -250 favorite.

"I'm picking Kevin in this fight. I think he's going to go out there and I'm going to pick a KO outright."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Paul also picks Vallejos, emphasizing that the key to beating Giga is constant pressure, which Vallejos excels at. He mentions Vallejos's takedown threat and body work, and suggests a Vallejos by decision prop at plus 150.

Vallejos by decision +150
"Vallejos by decision plus 150 is the best on market. It's probably how I will approach that fight this week."
WIN vs Danny Silva
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Vallejos 0 69 of 164 42% 73 of 168 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:22
Danny Silva 0 90 of 229 39% 90 of 230 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Vallejos 0 10 of 39 25% 10 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:10
Danny Silva 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Kevin Vallejos 0 22 of 50 44% 25 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:04
Danny Silva 0 35 of 81 43% 35 of 81 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
3 Kevin Vallejos 0 37 of 75 49% 38 of 76 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Danny Silva 0 36 of 94 38% 36 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Vallejos 69 of 164 42% 51 of 135 12 of 17 6 of 12 68 of 160 1 of 4 0 of 0
Danny Silva 90 of 229 39% 60 of 184 27 of 41 3 of 4 81 of 217 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Vallejos 10 of 39 25% 4 of 25 4 of 7 2 of 7 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Danny Silva 19 of 54 35% 9 of 40 7 of 10 3 of 4 18 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Kevin Vallejos 22 of 50 44% 15 of 41 3 of 4 4 of 5 22 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Danny Silva 35 of 81 43% 21 of 59 14 of 22 0 of 0 31 of 76 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Vallejos 37 of 75 49% 32 of 69 5 of 6 0 of 0 36 of 72 1 of 3 0 of 0
Danny Silva 36 of 94 38% 30 of 85 6 of 9 0 of 0 32 of 88 4 of 6 0 of 0
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor leans toward Vallejos, citing his clear pressure-counter game and methodical aggression. He believes Vallejos's sense of goal and pressure will help him win rounds, even if Silva is a faster athlete. Connor acknowledges Silva's tricky pot-shotting but thinks Vallejos's style is more likely to impose itself.

"I feel like I kind of have to naturally lean towards Vallejos."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Lucrative James admits bias as a fan of Kevin Vallejos but provides analysis. He highlights Vallejos' impressive performance against Jean Silva, taking round one and showing durability. He believes Vallejos has superior power and boxing, and will land the harder shots, possibly scoring a knockdown or knockout. He acknowledges Danny Silva's wider skill set and takedowns but trusts Vallejos' pressure and power to win a decision or finish. He calls it a potential fight of the night.

Fight of the Night candidate; Vallejos by KO or decision
"I think Vallejo is going to win the fight. I think Vallejo's going to knock Danny down."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Danny Silva

Zane picks Silva, noting his good defensive instincts, angle cutting, and ability to frustrate opponents with pot shots. He believes Silva's style is well-suited to counter Vallejos's pressure, and that Vallejos may need to show more initiative to win. Zane also mentions Silva's only loss was a majority decision, indicating competitiveness.

"I think I'll take Silva in this one actually. I think he has a style which seems pretty well suited to frustrate Vallejos more than the slow pace might frustrate him."
WIN vs SeungWoo Choi
KO R1 3:09 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
SeungWoo Choi 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 14 of 27 51% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 SeungWoo Choi 0 16 of 44 36% 16 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Vallejos 1 14 of 27 51% 26 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
SeungWoo Choi 16 of 44 36% 4 of 20 1 of 8 11 of 16 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 14 of 27 51% 4 of 12 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 SeungWoo Choi 16 of 44 36% 4 of 20 1 of 8 11 of 16 16 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Vallejos 14 of 27 51% 4 of 12 3 of 6 7 of 9 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo picks Kevin Vallejos over Choi Seung-woo. He is very confident in Vallejos, citing his power, speed, and the fact that Choi has been knocked out recently. He notes that UFC debuts can be nerve-wracking but believes Vallejos is the real deal. He expects the odds to move further in Vallejos' favor.

"I love Kevin in this matchup and even with the grappling I am very confident in him here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 10, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos, calling Choi Seung-woo very hittable and chinny. He notes that Choi has been knocked down or finished by lesser strikers like Michael Trizano and Josh Culibao, and that his style of standing and banging when hurt will backfire against Vallejos. Brady expects Vallejos to land a brutal first-round knockout, predicting he 'pipes up' Choi on sight.

Vallejos first round KO
"give me Kevin vallejos to win this fight by a brutal brutal first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Cody picks Christian Leroy Duncan, citing his speed, movement, and ability to finish. He notes that Eric Anders has been knocked down in his last three fights and is 38 years old. He believes Duncan can land a knockout, possibly in the first round, and considers the KO prop at plus 200.

KO prop at +200
"CLD by knockout. That may make my card this week to be perfectly honest. Um plus 200 when you've got like a minus 600 favorite."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor agrees, noting that Vallejos is a much more natural puncher inside and that Choi will relegate himself to brawling. He compares Vallejos to Jack Della Maddalena without a jab, but still fearsome. He also mentions that Vallejos looks for ways in off his opponent's offense and is a damn good combination puncher once he gets you out of position.

"I'm going to take Vallejos."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Jan 31, 2024 (409 days before fight)

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host believes this is a horrible matchup for Choi, who may have an output advantage but will eventually be caught by Vallejos crashing the pocket with big shots that put him clean out.

knockout
"I believe this is a horrible matchup for Troy he might have the output Advantage here against valos but I think it's just a matter of time before valos is able to crash the Pocket land those big shots on …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 6, 2025 (fight day)

Paul also picks Duncan, noting that Anders is a low-volume fighter who has been dropped early in recent fights. He believes Duncan's speed and athleticism will be too much, and he expects a finish. He is considering the KO prop as well.

"I think he's improving. They've not given him the easiest run. Anders isn't the easiest fight, but you should be able to just use that speed, that movement, keep him off of you, outpoint him at the very least."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The MMA Guru is very high on Kevin Vallejos, calling him the 'people's Main Event' and a real deal prospect. He praises his striking, head movement, and defensive responsibility, noting he took Jean Silva to a decision on the Contender Series at age 21. He criticizes Choi Seung-woo's bad chin and knockout losses, including to Mike Trizano. He predicts Vallejos will get a TKO finish in the second round, possibly late first, and believes he will go far in the division.

Second round TKO (maybe late first)
"I'm going with Kevin valos this is the people's Main Event okay you might not know it yet but you will after this Kevin vallejos is the real [ __ ] deal"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos because he believes Vallejos has a good chin (going three rounds with John Silva) and that Choi will eventually brawl, which favors Vallejos' natural pocket punching. He notes that Vallejos is a good combination puncher with defense, and that Choi cannot fight from distance forever. He acknowledges the competition level concern but thinks Vallejos has the tools.

Odds: Vallejos opened -384, now -636; Choi opened +248, now +424. Zane says the line is too wide but Vallejos deserves to be a favorite.
"I think I'm going to pick Vallejos, not just because he's a witch."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Angelo sees this as a setup fight designed to boost Kevin Vallejos. He notes that Josh Emmett is an aging fighter who no longer wrestles and relies on knockout power, but is too old and slow to keep up with Vallejos's speed and power. He believes Vallejos will win straightforwardly, possibly by knockout, and that Emmett's wrestling is no longer a factor.

"Kevin lights up Josh here. Kevin is then immediately in the rankings."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Big Brady picks Kevin Vallejos to win by dominant decision. He is very worried about Josh Emmett's age (41) and the damage he took in the Ilia Topuria fight. He believes Vallejos is younger, hungrier, and will destroy Emmett on the feet over five rounds. He sees Emmett's only path as a lucky catch, but Vallejos has a good chin.

"give me Kevin Vallejos and Kevin Vallejos to win by very dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Cody picks Kevin Vallejos based on the 17-year age gap, speed advantage, and superior jab. He notes Emmett's power is his only win condition, but Vallejos has durability and can outwork him. He acknowledges the price is too rich for a parlay anchor but expects Vallejos to win.

"it feels like Kevin Velahos is the uh the clear pick here. He's 17 years younger than Josh Emmen, and that kind of is the big difference maker for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Connor picks Vallejos, banking on his durability. He believes Vallejos will get plugged by Emmett's power but can take the shots, as evidenced by his fight with John Silva. He thinks Vallejos can build a lead over five rounds with a steady work rate.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Connor comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide.
"I'm gonna bank on his durability. And as provided he's durable enough, he should have this one in the bag."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

James picks Kevin Vallejos to win, citing his boxing advantage, better technique, and ability to break Emmett down with calf kicks. He notes Emmett's durability and experience in five-round fights but believes Vallejos will win a decision. He mentions that Vallejos is improving and has a skill advantage on the feet, though he cautions about Vallejos' unproven cardio over five rounds.

"I am going to say that Kevin Vallejo does win this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

The host picks Vallejos to win by decision but is hesitant due to the steep odds. He expects Vallejos to be more active and land more damage over five rounds, but acknowledges Emmett's durability and power make him a live dog. He likes the over 3.5 rounds and notes that Emmett's experience could make it competitive. He suggests Emmett at +475 has value.

over 3.5 rounds (approx -105)
"I'll still lean with Vallejo here. I think he ends up being a little bit more active, landing maybe a little bit more damage... but plus 475 on Josham, it seems too good to pass up."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Paul agrees Vallejos is talented but can't pull the trigger at -550. He would take a small shot on Emmett as a hedge, believing Emmett's durability and experience could cause problems over five rounds. He expects Vallejos to win 75% of the time but the price is too steep.

"If I was forced to make a bet right now, I'd probably take a small shot on EMTT um and pray."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Kevin Vallejos

The Guru picks Kevin Vallejos, calling him the next Ilia Topuria. He believes Vallejos will weather Emmett's early power, use his shoulder roll and guard, and then piece together combinations to the body and head for a TKO in the second or third round. He notes Emmett is diminished and weak to the body.

Prediction: second or third round TKO
"We are going to destroy Josh Emmett... second or third round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 12, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Vallejos

Zane picks Vallejos based on durability and pace. He notes that Vallejos has a hell of a chin and can dictate a better pace, while Emmett is 41 and choosy. However, he acknowledges it's not clear cut and Emmett could have a good night.

Odds: Vallejos opened at -500, currently -550; Emmett opened at +375, currently +420. Zane comments that the odds are pretty goddamn wide considering Emmett's one-punch power.
"You have to pick Vallejos at this point. Yeah, I think I agree. It's not clear cut, though. It really isn't."