UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy Next Fight
Age 28
Height 6' 5"
Reach 79"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 25
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76"
Weight 205 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mário Pinto
2.85 SLpM
69.0% Str. Acc.
1.93 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
2.38 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Felipe Franco
1.81 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.55 SApM
38.0% Str. Def.
3.02 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
87.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Mário Pinto - Fight History
SCHED vs Ryan Spann
UFC Fight Night · Sep 05, 2026
WIN vs Felipe Franco
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mário Pinto 0 34 of 58 58% 137 of 166 2 of 14 14% 0 0 6:15
Felipe Franco 0 21 of 60 35% 60 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mário Pinto 0 16 of 28 57% 37 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Felipe Franco 0 9 of 25 36% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mário Pinto 0 9 of 20 45% 39 of 53 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:20
Felipe Franco 0 3 of 19 15% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Mário Pinto 0 9 of 10 90% 61 of 64 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:27
Felipe Franco 0 9 of 16 56% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mário Pinto 34 of 58 58% 25 of 48 6 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 42 13 of 15 1 of 1
Felipe Franco 21 of 60 35% 13 of 51 7 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 51 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mário Pinto 16 of 28 57% 12 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
Felipe Franco 9 of 25 36% 6 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mário Pinto 9 of 20 45% 6 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe Franco 3 of 19 15% 1 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mário Pinto 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 6 1 of 1
Felipe Franco 9 of 16 56% 6 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 9 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Angelo picks Mário Pinto as the better fighter, noting Felipe Franco's record is fraudulent and he was submitted by a short-notice gym teacher. However, he warns that Franco's wrestling could be enough to win, comparing him to Jailton Almeida. He advises caution and says he will likely stay away from betting this fight.

staying away from betting; Franco might be Jailton Almeida 2.0
"Mario should be able to knock Felipe's head clean off of his body. I'm still going to probably stay away from this fight or at least not go all in on it because Felipe might be Jolt Nomeda 2.0."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady is extremely confident in Mário Pinto, calling Felipe Franco a 'fake fighter' and this signing 'despicable.' He notes that Franco's wins are against terrible competition (shopping mall fighters) and that he got exposed on the Contender Series. Pinto, on the other hand, is a good fighter with good striking and wrestling, as shown in his last fight against John Lineker. He predicts a second-round knockout for Pinto.

Mário Pinto by second-round KO
"Give me Mario Pinto to win this fight. I think he finishes Felipe Franco. I'll say second-round knockout for Mario Pinto."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Cody agrees, noting Pinto's youth and ability to win standing or on the ground. He expects a dominant performance.

"Mario Pinto, easy win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pinto. He notes that Franco is a beast but too raw to navigate this level, and that Pinto's size and reach advantage will be decisive. Connor also mentions that Pinto can be passive and wait for mistakes, but Franco's lack of experience makes that a viable strategy.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Connor says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I just don't think, yeah, I'm agreeing with you. I think Franco is way, there's something there, but he's way too raw to navigate this level of fighting."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel is very confident in Pinto, calling him a top heavyweight prospect. He thinks Franco is a sacrificial lamb who will struggle with takedowns and gas out. He expects Pinto to finish him in round one, possibly by knockout.

"I think Mario Pinto is going to launch this dude's head into the fifth row."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel Vreeland picks Mário Pinto to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Pinto's size, striking, and takedown defense, while criticizing Franco's lack of heavyweight experience and suspect chin. He expects a big level difference.

"I'm going Mario Pinto by first round knockout."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Pinto is better everywhere, but at -957 in a heavyweight fight, the odds are absurd. Franco is low-level but has puncher's chance. Dog or pass.

"I would not be betting Pinto at, you know, 1.10, minus 957, um in a heavyweight fight where it only takes one shot to get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

James picks Mário Pinto with high confidence, calling it as close to a lock as possible. He notes that Franco has a weak record and was finished on DWCS, while Pinto is a much better striker. He predicts a first-round finish.

Mário Pinto inside the distance
"Mario Pinto is going to dominate him, man. Pinto is going to finish this fight inside one round, maximum two rounds, probably one round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host picks Mário Pinto by knockout. He notes Pinto's well-rounded game and superior striking, while Franco is a light heavyweight moving up on short notice with poor durability. He expects Pinto to keep the fight standing and land a big shot for a KO. He is hesitant on the under 1.5 rounds due to Franco's potential to clinch.

"I'm still picking Pinto to win. I don't think Franco has much of a chance at all. And I'm going to go Pinto by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Paul thinks Pinto is a clear step up in competition for Franco, who has only first-round wins against weak opposition. He expects Pinto to win easily.

"I will not be clicking Franco's name this week. I will tell you that much."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The MMA Guru picks Mário Pinto to finish Felipe Franco in the second or third round. He notes Franco has never fought a good opponent and lost on the Contender Series, while Pinto looked well-rounded against Jinata Denz with good grappling. He expects Franco to be dangerous early but fade, allowing Pinto to find a finish later.

finish in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that he finishes Felipe Franco by finish in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Zane picks Mário Pinto, noting that Pinto is a solid fighter with fundamental striking and wrestling, while Franco is too raw and has only beaten regional cans. He points out Pinto's size advantage (4 inches taller, 3-inch reach) and that Franco struggled against the only decent opponent he faced. Zane thinks Franco should be in LFA, not the UFC.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Zane says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I can't imagine Franco winning this frankly, but he's a can crusher right now, only one regionally because he was a far better athlete in far better shape than his competition."
WIN vs Jhonata Diniz
KO R2 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jhonata Diniz 0 1 of 5 20% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
Mário Pinto 0 29 of 33 87% 87 of 102 3 of 4 75% 2 1 7:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jhonata Diniz 0 1 of 2 50% 4 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
Mário Pinto 0 12 of 14 85% 37 of 44 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:55
2 Jhonata Diniz 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mário Pinto 0 17 of 19 89% 50 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jhonata Diniz 1 of 5 20% 0 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 29 of 33 87% 28 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 27 of 30
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jhonata Diniz 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 12 of 14 85% 11 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 12
2 Jhonata Diniz 0 of 3 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 17 of 19 89% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 18
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jhonata Diniz vs. Mario Pinto
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pinto (-125); Diniz (+110)

Round 1
The heavyweights in this match will make the cage rumble, with a combined 512 pounds of bones and squishy stuff between them, not counting referee Joao Claudio Soares. Brazil’s Diniz (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will channel the momentum of home crowd empowering him, and he may need it to hand Pinto (10-0, 1-0 UFC) his first pro loss. The judges may not be needed when it’s all said and done. The big boys clap their equally big gloves together.
It takes 32 seconds for a fighter to commit to a strike, and it is a Diniz leg kick. Pinto tosses one back to answer him, before skirting from side to side. When Diniz opens up with a right hand, Pinto drops to his knees and completes a double. Diniz hits his back, but muscles his way back upright in seconds. Pinto easily mat returns him, and Diniz elbows him repeatedly in the back of the head. Pinto advances to half guard, using his elbow to frame off and keep Diniz from sitting up or scrambling. Pinto climbs into full mount, and Diniz bucks but is stuck flat on his back. Pinto drives down a hefty elbow, and exerts heavy pressure.
When Diniz is about to get out of the mount, Pinto keeps moving and traps Diniz’ arm beneath his legs for a half crucifix. All the while, Pinto’s free arm bashes Diniz with elbow after unanswered elbow. Pinto suddenly transitions to a keylock, where he cranks it all the way up and over as Diniz thinks about giving up but grits it out. Diniz rolls over to try to get out, and Pinto rolls him back thanks to a triangle choke and the threat of an armbar. The man from Portugal repositions himself back to half guard rather than lose position altogether, and he lowers himself down to smother Diniz for the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Pinto
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pinto

Round 2
The fighters high-five to get going in the second stanza, and like before, it takes some time for the heavyweights to engage. After 20 seconds of shadowboxing, they trade low kicks. Pinto changes levels in pursuit of a single, and Diniz shuts it down and puts his back to the wall. As the action slow down, Pinto surges into action with a surprise hip toss to chuck the 257-pound Brazilian on his back. Pinto lines up an elbow from each arm, and he sits up and uses it to either beat on Diniz further or keep him stuck on his back. Pinto slowly, calmly relocates from the guard to half guard to full mount, and when he passes, Diniz times a reversal.
Pinto quickly flips his man back over, and he hacks down with elbows. One slashes Diniz’ forehead wide open, and the blood is a-flowin’. Pinto scoots into full mount, and he sits up and jackhammers the Brazilian with a long flurry of punches.
Pinto grounds and pounds his opponent into a bloody mess, Diniz’ left eye swelling up in a hurry, and he does not appear to have the wherewithal to escape. Pinto takes advantage of his foe who has transformed into a tortoise laying on his back, his belly roasting under the bright lights of the arena, beating his legs to try to turn himself over, but he can’t. Not without Soares’ help, who steps in to call a halt to the heavyweight shellacking.
The momentum for home country fighters has certainly shifted tonight, and three more Brazilians remain—all betting underdogs.

The Official Result
Mario Pinto def. Jhonata Diniz R2 4:10 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Angelo flips his pick to Jhonata Diniz after initially leaning towards Mário Pinto. He notes Diniz is a good striker with clean technique and power, and criticizes Pinto's habit of leaning his head back. He acknowledges Diniz's poor ground game but believes his striking advantage will prevail. He is not highly confident.

"I'm going Genaro Valdez. I did it. I talked myself into... I'm picking Genaro Valdez."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Big Brady picks Jhonata Diniz, citing better volume, power, and striking. He criticizes Mario Pinto for being low volume and boring, and notes Pinto struggled against Austin Lane, getting outlanded and knocked down. Brady expects Diniz to land bigger shots and more volume, winning a decision.

"Denise, better volume, better power, just a better striker. I think Denise should win this fight. I'll say decision for Denat the Denise."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Cody picks Diniz but is hesitant, calling it a 'middling ass heavyweight fight.' He notes Diniz's slow start but improving takedown defense and cardio, while Pinto is green and unrefined. He thinks Diniz's leg kicks and experience will edge him a decision.

"He's slower, he's plotting, he'll get punched in the face a few times, no doubt about it. If he can put in a performance like he did against Alvin Hines, work the legs, keep a high output, I think he'll …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Lucrative James picks Mário Pinto, citing his youth (27 vs 34), undefeated record, and potential wrestling advantage. He notes that Diniz is a pure striker with no wrestling, while Pinto has more upside. He sees it as a close fight but leans Pinto. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and refers to his 'hammer of the week' video for props.

over 1.5 rounds
"I'm going to take Mario Pinto in this fight. I don't know who I took in the last fight. I think I called it like a pick them, but yeah, I feel like Mario Pinto's just got more upside than …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

James picks Diniz as a slight underdog, expecting a striking contest where Diniz's experience and power give him an edge. He acknowledges Pinto's better boxing and potential grappling advantage but doubts Pinto will use takedowns. He predicts a decision win for Diniz but calls it a weak take and a 50/50 fight.

"I'm going to have to go with the guy who I feel like is going to be more effective in the striking, and that is Yonardo Denise."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Manpreet picks Pinto as an underdog, surprised at the plus money. He believes Pinto's athleticism, power, and potential grappling advantage (training with Stuart Austin) will overcome Diniz's striking. He notes Diniz's poor takedown defense and expects Pinto to mix in takedowns and secure a TKO finish. He considers the first round against Austen Lane a blip.

Pinto by TKO
"I'm kind of surprised that Pinto finds himself at plus 105 here. ... I love Pinto to pull off the upset and get the win like I said, by TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Paul picks Diniz, citing his superior kickboxing experience and leg kicks. He questions Pinto's power and durability, noting he was knocked down by Austin Lane. He believes Diniz's cardio and technique will carry him to a win, possibly by knockout.

knockout
"Denise Denise by knockout. Uval Morer. Someone's head's getting knocked off. Probably Pintos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz over Mário Pinto as an underdog. He believes Diniz has better kickboxing fundamentals, a tucked chin, and durability. He notes Pinto gets wild and Diniz will stick his jab. He predicts a TKO win in the first two rounds.

TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm going to go with Jinata Denz getting this one done by TKO. I think it's an upset."
WIN vs Austen Lane
KO R2 0:39 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Austen Lane 1 32 of 63 50% 36 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Mário Pinto 1 13 of 23 56% 16 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Austen Lane 1 20 of 38 52% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Mário Pinto 0 7 of 11 63% 10 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
2 Austen Lane 0 12 of 25 48% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mário Pinto 1 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Austen Lane 32 of 63 50% 17 of 42 13 of 17 2 of 4 31 of 58 1 of 5 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 13 of 23 56% 8 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 12 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Austen Lane 20 of 38 52% 11 of 23 7 of 11 2 of 4 20 of 35 0 of 3 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 7 of 11 63% 2 of 6 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Austen Lane 12 of 25 48% 6 of 19 6 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 23 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mário Pinto 6 of 12 50% 6 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Angelo does not make a clear pick for this fight. He notes that Mário Pinto has good takedown defense and power, but Austen Lane is athletic and experienced. He is hesitant due to Pinto's -330 odds as a UFC debutant and decides to avoid betting on this fight, calling it a 'conservative anchor' and suggesting it's the type of fight bet Sam might take.

Avoid betting; fight likely to be avoided
"I'm probably going to avoid this fight like once you get minus 330 on a UFC debut it's it's just there's a lot of questions"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady picks Mário Pinto, impressed by his well-rounded skills. He notes Austen Lane's only path is wrestling, but Pinto can stuff takedowns and has a striking advantage. He predicts Pinto will knock out Lane within the first two rounds.

Pinto by KO round 2
"I'm going to go Mario Pinto to win this fight and I think he knocks out lane within the first two rounds we'll call it a second round knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host is high on Mario Pinto in his UFC debut, believing his takedown defense will shut down Lane's wrestling and that he is the superior striker. He expects Pinto to find a knockout and get his hand raised.

knockout
"I do love me some Mario Pinto here who is going to be making his UFC debut I think his takedown defense will be good enough to shut down that side of Lane's game and I think he is the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

The Guru picks Mário Pinto over Austen Lane. He notes Pinto's technical striking and finishing ability on the contender series, despite looking flabby. He thinks Lane is dangerous but has been knocked out before. He predicts a TKO finish for Pinto in his debut.

"I'm going with Mario Pinter... probably by finish I'm going to say TKO for Mario Pinto in his debut."
Felipe Franco - Fight History
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

AJ picks Franco as a live underdog but expresses uncertainty, needing to see weigh-ins. He notes Franco's wrestling advantage but worries about Rodrigues' power and Muay Thai. AJ mentions Rodrigues' past steroid use and questions his post-suspension form.

"Felipe Franco at plus 135. I'm sweating this one. I need to see weigh-ins... Franco is an underdog pick."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

AJ picks Felipe Franco as an underdog, citing Levi Rodriguez's steroid suspension and questionable cardio off steroids. He believes Franco's grappling is superior and that he can control position, potentially winning by submission or decision. He notes Franco's improvement and youth (25) as factors, and expects the fight to go over 1.5 rounds.

Franco by submission, over 1.5 rounds, Franco as underdog (+160)
"I'm going to go Felipe Franco. I think he beats Levi Rodriguez here. He's an underdog. I think he's a good underdog."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Franco

AJ picks Felipe Franco as a live dog, citing Franco's strong grappling and Muay Thai against Levi Rodriguez, who may be diminished off steroids. He worries about Levi's power but believes Franco can outwork him on the ground. He wants to see weigh-ins before betting, as Levi's physique post-suspension is uncertain.

Franco by submission (+525), Franco by decision (+500), over 1.5 rounds
"I'm picking Franco as a live dog because my thought process here is Levi Rodriguez without steroids live to be outworked in the grappling by Franco."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Lean picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

AJ picks Felipe Franco, citing Franco's competitive debut against Mario Pinto and his grappling advantage. He questions Levi Rodriguez's performance off steroids and notes Franco's better jiu-jitsu and wrestling, expecting him to grind out a decision or submission.

"I'm going to pick Felipe Franco to win. I think he could get some takedowns on Levi Rodriguez."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Franco

Angelo picks the underdog Felipe Franco, citing his durability, power, and wrestling advantage. He thinks Franco can win by wrestling and score well in DFS. He acknowledges Levi's power and takedown defense but expects a sloppy fight where Franco's grappling could be the difference.

"Felipe Franco is going to be the pick and I will have him in my lineup."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

Angelo picks Felipe Franco as a dog, citing that Levi Rodrigues Jr. failed a drug test and may not perform without steroids. He notes both fighters are similar but Franco is more well-rounded and will look to wrestle. He advises not to bet on this fight due to unpredictability.

do not bet on this fight
"I'm going to pick the dog here. ... Felipe Franco is going to be the pick. ... Do not bet on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Levi Rodrigues Jr., citing his better striking, power, and cardio compared to Felipe Franco. He notes Franco's poor performance against a common opponent and his lack of grappling. He predicts a first-round knockout, but admits the fight is low level.

first round knockout
"I'm going to take Rodriguez to win this fight, and I'm going to take him to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Cody picks Rodriguez but prefers a live bet. He thinks Franco will take him down early, testing his takedown defense and cardio. He believes Rodriguez's power could be a factor later if Franco tires. He is not fully sold due to Rodriguez's PED suspension and UFC debut.

Live bet Rodriguez
"I know this sounds like a coward's way out because I am actually going to take Levy Rodriguez as well, but live bet this thing."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Daniel Levi picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. to knock out Felipe Franco, citing Rodrigues' one-hitter-quitter power and speed on the feet. He has questions about Rodrigues' ground game but expects Franco to try to grapple, while Rodrigues has a big edge striking. He notes Franco is dropping to light heavyweight, which is his natural weight class, but still favors Rodrigues' power.

finish prediction: KO/TKO
"I'll pick Levy to come out here and knock out Felipe Franco."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Felipe Franco

Franco is an underdog at +130, and the host is surprised by these odds. Franco looked decent in his UFC debut against Mario Pinto, showing technical striking, good cardio, and the ability to get back to his feet after being taken down. Rodrigues is a complete unknown with only five pro fights against low-level opponents. The host bets Franco at underdog odds, also taking Franco +3.5 at 2.10 for 2 units.

Bet Franco moneyline 2 units at +130; also bet Franco +3.5 at 2.10 for 2 units.
"I don't personally understand why he is the underdog in this fight. Doesn't really make a whole lot of sense to me."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Levi Rodrigues Jr.

Lucrative James picks Levi Rodrigues Jr. to win by knockout, but admits he needs more tape study. He notes that Felipe Franco is athletic but has poor skills and was submitted by a low-level opponent. He thinks Rodrigues is the better striker and should have the power advantage, but the fight is volatile and low level.

"I'll pick Levi Rodriguez via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

Franco has untapped potential and has shown improvement in fight IQ since his loss to Freddy Vidal, using his judo and BJJ to control opponents. Rodriguez is undefeated but has faced lower-level competition and has questions about his grappling defense. Franco should be able to mix in takedowns and find a submission, making him a live underdog.

Franco by submission
"I got to go Felipe Franco. I'm going to say specifically by submission, I'd lean more so inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

The host believes the underdog Franco will mix his improved striking with his BJJ and judo background to get the fight to the ground and find a submission.

submission
"I believe it's going to be the underdog, Franco, who's going to be able to mix in his improved striking game and confidence with his grappling and ... eventually find a submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

Paul picks Franco as a dog, citing his grappling advantage and cardio improvement. He notes Franco's takedowns against Vidal and durability against Pinto. He thinks Franco can take Rodriguez down and win, but acknowledges volatility and calls it a 'dog or pass'.

"It's about live pick. Way to go. But I it's to me it's actually a dogger pass. It's like super reluctantly PRP pick. I'll take Felipe Franco."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Felipe Franco

The MMA Guru picks Felipe Franco as an upset over Levi Rodrigues Jr. He notes Franco's competitive performance against Mario Pinto at heavyweight and questions Rodrigues' PED history. He predicts Franco finishes in the second or third round.

second or third round finish
"I'm going to go with Felipe Franco... I'm going to say that Franco finishes him in the second or third and gets the upset over Levi Rodriguez Jr."
LOSS vs Mário Pinto
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mário Pinto 0 34 of 58 58% 137 of 166 2 of 14 14% 0 0 6:15
Felipe Franco 0 21 of 60 35% 60 of 100 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mário Pinto 0 16 of 28 57% 37 of 49 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Felipe Franco 0 9 of 25 36% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mário Pinto 0 9 of 20 45% 39 of 53 1 of 5 20% 0 0 2:20
Felipe Franco 0 3 of 19 15% 11 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Mário Pinto 0 9 of 10 90% 61 of 64 1 of 7 14% 0 0 3:27
Felipe Franco 0 9 of 16 56% 33 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mário Pinto 34 of 58 58% 25 of 48 6 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 42 13 of 15 1 of 1
Felipe Franco 21 of 60 35% 13 of 51 7 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 51 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mário Pinto 16 of 28 57% 12 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2 12 of 23 4 of 5 0 of 0
Felipe Franco 9 of 25 36% 6 of 21 2 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mário Pinto 9 of 20 45% 6 of 17 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe Franco 3 of 19 15% 1 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mário Pinto 9 of 10 90% 7 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3 6 of 6 1 of 1
Felipe Franco 9 of 16 56% 6 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 9 6 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Angelo picks Mário Pinto as the better fighter, noting Felipe Franco's record is fraudulent and he was submitted by a short-notice gym teacher. However, he warns that Franco's wrestling could be enough to win, comparing him to Jailton Almeida. He advises caution and says he will likely stay away from betting this fight.

staying away from betting; Franco might be Jailton Almeida 2.0
"Mario should be able to knock Felipe's head clean off of his body. I'm still going to probably stay away from this fight or at least not go all in on it because Felipe might be Jolt Nomeda 2.0."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady is extremely confident in Mário Pinto, calling Felipe Franco a 'fake fighter' and this signing 'despicable.' He notes that Franco's wins are against terrible competition (shopping mall fighters) and that he got exposed on the Contender Series. Pinto, on the other hand, is a good fighter with good striking and wrestling, as shown in his last fight against John Lineker. He predicts a second-round knockout for Pinto.

Mário Pinto by second-round KO
"Give me Mario Pinto to win this fight. I think he finishes Felipe Franco. I'll say second-round knockout for Mario Pinto."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Cody agrees, noting Pinto's youth and ability to win standing or on the ground. He expects a dominant performance.

"Mario Pinto, easy win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pinto. He notes that Franco is a beast but too raw to navigate this level, and that Pinto's size and reach advantage will be decisive. Connor also mentions that Pinto can be passive and wait for mistakes, but Franco's lack of experience makes that a viable strategy.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Connor says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I just don't think, yeah, I'm agreeing with you. I think Franco is way, there's something there, but he's way too raw to navigate this level of fighting."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel is very confident in Pinto, calling him a top heavyweight prospect. He thinks Franco is a sacrificial lamb who will struggle with takedowns and gas out. He expects Pinto to finish him in round one, possibly by knockout.

"I think Mario Pinto is going to launch this dude's head into the fifth row."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel Vreeland picks Mário Pinto to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Pinto's size, striking, and takedown defense, while criticizing Franco's lack of heavyweight experience and suspect chin. He expects a big level difference.

"I'm going Mario Pinto by first round knockout."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Pinto is better everywhere, but at -957 in a heavyweight fight, the odds are absurd. Franco is low-level but has puncher's chance. Dog or pass.

"I would not be betting Pinto at, you know, 1.10, minus 957, um in a heavyweight fight where it only takes one shot to get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

James picks Mário Pinto with high confidence, calling it as close to a lock as possible. He notes that Franco has a weak record and was finished on DWCS, while Pinto is a much better striker. He predicts a first-round finish.

Mário Pinto inside the distance
"Mario Pinto is going to dominate him, man. Pinto is going to finish this fight inside one round, maximum two rounds, probably one round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host picks Mário Pinto by knockout. He notes Pinto's well-rounded game and superior striking, while Franco is a light heavyweight moving up on short notice with poor durability. He expects Pinto to keep the fight standing and land a big shot for a KO. He is hesitant on the under 1.5 rounds due to Franco's potential to clinch.

"I'm still picking Pinto to win. I don't think Franco has much of a chance at all. And I'm going to go Pinto by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Paul thinks Pinto is a clear step up in competition for Franco, who has only first-round wins against weak opposition. He expects Pinto to win easily.

"I will not be clicking Franco's name this week. I will tell you that much."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The MMA Guru picks Mário Pinto to finish Felipe Franco in the second or third round. He notes Franco has never fought a good opponent and lost on the Contender Series, while Pinto looked well-rounded against Jinata Denz with good grappling. He expects Franco to be dangerous early but fade, allowing Pinto to find a finish later.

finish in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that he finishes Felipe Franco by finish in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Zane picks Mário Pinto, noting that Pinto is a solid fighter with fundamental striking and wrestling, while Franco is too raw and has only beaten regional cans. He points out Pinto's size advantage (4 inches taller, 3-inch reach) and that Franco struggled against the only decent opponent he faced. Zane thinks Franco should be in LFA, not the UFC.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Zane says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I can't imagine Franco winning this frankly, but he's a can crusher right now, only one regionally because he was a far better athlete in far better shape than his competition."
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Angelo picks Mário Pinto as the better fighter, noting Felipe Franco's record is fraudulent and he was submitted by a short-notice gym teacher. However, he warns that Franco's wrestling could be enough to win, comparing him to Jailton Almeida. He advises caution and says he will likely stay away from betting this fight.

staying away from betting; Franco might be Jailton Almeida 2.0
"Mario should be able to knock Felipe's head clean off of his body. I'm still going to probably stay away from this fight or at least not go all in on it because Felipe might be Jolt Nomeda 2.0."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Big Brady is extremely confident in Mário Pinto, calling Felipe Franco a 'fake fighter' and this signing 'despicable.' He notes that Franco's wins are against terrible competition (shopping mall fighters) and that he got exposed on the Contender Series. Pinto, on the other hand, is a good fighter with good striking and wrestling, as shown in his last fight against John Lineker. He predicts a second-round knockout for Pinto.

Mário Pinto by second-round KO
"Give me Mario Pinto to win this fight. I think he finishes Felipe Franco. I'll say second-round knockout for Mario Pinto."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Cody agrees, noting Pinto's youth and ability to win standing or on the ground. He expects a dominant performance.

"Mario Pinto, easy win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Pinto. He notes that Franco is a beast but too raw to navigate this level, and that Pinto's size and reach advantage will be decisive. Connor also mentions that Pinto can be passive and wait for mistakes, but Franco's lack of experience makes that a viable strategy.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Connor says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I just don't think, yeah, I'm agreeing with you. I think Franco is way, there's something there, but he's way too raw to navigate this level of fighting."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel is very confident in Pinto, calling him a top heavyweight prospect. He thinks Franco is a sacrificial lamb who will struggle with takedowns and gas out. He expects Pinto to finish him in round one, possibly by knockout.

"I think Mario Pinto is going to launch this dude's head into the fifth row."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Daniel Vreeland picks Mário Pinto to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Pinto's size, striking, and takedown defense, while criticizing Franco's lack of heavyweight experience and suspect chin. He expects a big level difference.

"I'm going Mario Pinto by first round knockout."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Pinto is better everywhere, but at -957 in a heavyweight fight, the odds are absurd. Franco is low-level but has puncher's chance. Dog or pass.

"I would not be betting Pinto at, you know, 1.10, minus 957, um in a heavyweight fight where it only takes one shot to get knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

James picks Mário Pinto with high confidence, calling it as close to a lock as possible. He notes that Franco has a weak record and was finished on DWCS, while Pinto is a much better striker. He predicts a first-round finish.

Mário Pinto inside the distance
"Mario Pinto is going to dominate him, man. Pinto is going to finish this fight inside one round, maximum two rounds, probably one round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The host picks Mário Pinto by knockout. He notes Pinto's well-rounded game and superior striking, while Franco is a light heavyweight moving up on short notice with poor durability. He expects Pinto to keep the fight standing and land a big shot for a KO. He is hesitant on the under 1.5 rounds due to Franco's potential to clinch.

"I'm still picking Pinto to win. I don't think Franco has much of a chance at all. And I'm going to go Pinto by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

Paul thinks Pinto is a clear step up in competition for Franco, who has only first-round wins against weak opposition. He expects Pinto to win easily.

"I will not be clicking Franco's name this week. I will tell you that much."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mário Pinto

The MMA Guru picks Mário Pinto to finish Felipe Franco in the second or third round. He notes Franco has never fought a good opponent and lost on the Contender Series, while Pinto looked well-rounded against Jinata Denz with good grappling. He expects Franco to be dangerous early but fade, allowing Pinto to find a finish later.

finish in the second or third round
"I'm going to say that he finishes Felipe Franco by finish in the second or third round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mário Pinto

Zane picks Mário Pinto, noting that Pinto is a solid fighter with fundamental striking and wrestling, while Franco is too raw and has only beaten regional cans. He points out Pinto's size advantage (4 inches taller, 3-inch reach) and that Franco struggled against the only decent opponent he faced. Zane thinks Franco should be in LFA, not the UFC.

Odds comment: Pinto opened -300, now -900; Franco opened +250, now +600. Zane says the odds are too wide but still picks Pinto.
"I can't imagine Franco winning this frankly, but he's a can crusher right now, only one regionally because he was a far better athlete in far better shape than his competition."