Career Averages - Michael Page
Career Averages - Sam Patterson
Michael Page - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 12 of 64 | 18% | 25 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 2 of 26 | 7% | 5 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 27 of 55 | 49% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 12 of 64 | 18% | 4 of 50 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 10 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 2 of 26 | 7% | 1 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 12 of 19 | 63% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 6 of 27 | 22% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.
Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.
Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.
Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.
This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.
The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.
Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.
Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 8:14 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 29 of 55 | 52% | 36 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 2 of 16 | 12% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 12 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 0 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 24 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jared Cannonier | 20 of 57 | 35% | 10 of 45 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 29 of 55 | 52% | 19 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jared Cannonier | 2 of 16 | 12% | 0 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 5 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jared Cannonier | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jared Cannonier | 8 of 16 | 50% | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Michael Page | 7 of 15 | 46% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes this is a tailor-made matchup for MVP, as his speed and karate style will be too much for the powerful but slow Cannonier. He notes MVP has outstruck everyone in the UFC, including Ian Garry, and can pop in and out safely. He is surprisingly confident in MVP.
Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes Page is an incredible striker with a unique style that makes him hard to hit, and he has outlanded top strikers like Ian Garry and Kevin Holland. He thinks Cannonier will struggle to take Page down, as Cannonier has only one fight with more than one takedown. He favors Page heavily in distance striking and thinks Page wins a decision, possibly a knockout. He also mentions a prop bet on Page under 54.5 significant strikes.
Connor picks Page, arguing that Page can frustrate Cannonier from range and that Cannonier is slowing down and less likely to have fight-stealing moments. He notes that Page is comfortable with boring fights and can make Cannonier look slow and cumbersome. However, he acknowledges that Cannonier's strength in the clinch could be a problem, but Page's ability to tie up after striking may mitigate that.
The host believes Page's elusive striking style will be too much for the veteran Cannonier. He predicts Page will pick apart Cannonier and eventually find a knockout in the second round.
The Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by decision over Jared Cannonier. He believes Cannonier will be too technical and hesitant to pressure Page effectively, instead opting for a low-output striking match. The Guru notes that Cannonier has a history of not taking risks, as seen in his fights with Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. He expects Page to outpoint Cannonier with movement and occasional highlights, winning a dull decision.
Zane picks Page, noting that Page is a master of body language and can make even close rounds feel like his. He believes Cannonier is a middleweight version of Josh Koscheck, a tough but limited fighter who is winding down. Zane thinks Page's ability to pick his shots and avoid engagement will frustrate Cannonier, who doesn't cut off the cage well. He sees Page as a meme fighter who can carve a path to the top of the division.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 0 | 38 of 87 | 43% | 50 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 43 of 75 | 57% | 47 of 81 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 0 | 9 of 25 | 36% | 9 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 2 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 0 | 7 of 30 | 23% | 9 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 3 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 0 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 32 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sharabutdin Magomedov | 38 of 87 | 43% | 8 of 42 | 17 of 20 | 13 of 25 | 34 of 82 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 43 of 75 | 57% | 23 of 53 | 11 of 12 | 9 of 10 | 38 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 9 of 25 | 36% | 1 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 12 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 13 of 21 | 61% | 7 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 7 of 30 | 23% | 0 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 14 of 25 | 56% | 5 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sharabutdin Magomedov | 22 of 32 | 68% | 7 of 14 | 10 of 10 | 5 of 8 | 18 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 16 of 29 | 55% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Page, calling it his 'last ride' with MVP. He notes Page's unorthodox karate style, speed, and ability to cover distance. He believes Page's striking will frustrate Sharabutdin Magomedov, who is creative but may struggle with Page's movement. He acknowledges Page's age (37) and the risk of a knockout loss, but thinks Page can win a decision. He suggests looking at prop bets like MVP +3.5.
Big Brady thinks the odds make no sense and favors Michael Page at plus money. He praises Page's striking defense, noting he made Kevin Holland and Ian Garry look silly. Sharabutdin Magomedov has 42% striking defense and is there to be hit. Brady expects a close fight but predicts Page wins by decision, possibly split. He doesn't see Magomedov wrestling.
Connor picks MVP, expecting him to produce his typical frustrating fight. He notes that Magomedov is directionally aimless and has a punchable face that invites aggression, but MVP's style of staying at range and countering is difficult to deal with. Connor believes Magomedov's leg kicks could be a factor, but MVP's willingness to make the fight boring and his reach advantage give him the edge.
James picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, primarily due to hometown bias in Saudi Arabia favoring the Russian Muslim fighter. He also cites Magomedov's leg kick advantage against Page's karate stance, better durability, and finishing upside. He notes Page moves up to middleweight at 37-38, which is a disadvantage. He expects a close fight but sees Magomedov winning by decision, with potential for a knockout.
Page is very hard to hit and will set up counters effectively, potentially scoring a knockout if he lands the perfect shot. Magomedov lacks a wrestling background despite his name, which will be an issue. Page is expected to pick him apart similar to the Kevin Holland fight and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win by late-round TKO via ground and pound. He believes Magomedov's kicks and clinch will cause problems for MVP, and that MVP's takedown defense is weak. He notes MVP struggled with Ian Garry's grappling and that Magomedov has been drilling takedowns. He thinks MVP's move to middleweight may reduce his presence.
Zane picks MVP, agreeing with Connor that Magomedov's lack of defensive structure and tendency to be countered will be exploited. He notes that MVP's style of frustrating opponents and waiting for mistakes is effective, and Magomedov's leg kicks may not be enough to overcome MVP's reach and movement. Zane expects a boring fight but sees MVP winning.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 65 of 101 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 7:29 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 21 of 38 | 55% | 52 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 27 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 10 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 31 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 8 of 12 | 66% | 28 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:56 |
| Michael Page | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 26 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 25 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 7 |
| Michael Page | 21 of 38 | 55% | 15 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Michael Page | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 9 of 21 | 42% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Page | 14 of 23 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 8 of 12 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 |
| Michael Page | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his youth, grappling advantage, and cardio. He notes that Page is 37 and has shown takedown defense issues, while Garry is a judo black belt with improving wrestling. Cody believes Garry will use leg kicks and clinch work to neutralize Page's movement, and that he can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Page's win over Kevin Holland was unimpressive and that Garry has the skills to implement a game plan.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Garry because he believes Garry is smart enough to not let Michael Page fight his fight. He notes that Page's best performances come against opponents who are 'a little nuts' and willing to engage in chaos, but Garry is disciplined and won't be lured out of his game plan. Vreeland expects Garry to crowd Page, press him against the cage, and possibly mix in grappling to neutralize Page's striking range. He also points out that Garry has better grappling stats and is younger and more active.
Daniel took MVP at plus 125 for two units, his first time picking against Garry. He believes MVP's speed and unorthodox style can fluster Garry, and that Garry's wrestling advantage is mitigated by MVP's improved takedown defense. He acknowledges the age difference (11 years) but sees MVP as an anomaly. He is worried about Garry's top control but is letting it ride.
Jeff Fox picks Ian Garry, stating that Garry has proven he knows how to stay safe and use range and distance better than Page. He notes that Page did not look impressive in his win over Kevin Holland and didn't put his foot on the gas, which could get him in trouble against Garry. Fox believes Garry is a very good deal at minus 137.
The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.
The host is confident in Garry, emphasizing his superior grappling. He believes Garry will exploit Page's takedown defense and use his wrestling to take the fight to the mat, where he can control or submit Page. He notes Garry is not outmatched on the feet and expects the line to move to -160 or -170 by fight time. He also mentions a submission prop at +900 as a sprinkle.
Paul picks Page by knockout, admitting he is betting with his heart because he dislikes Garry. He acknowledges that Garry has a grappling advantage but believes Page's power and flashy striking can end the fight at any moment. Paul notes that Page looked good against Kevin Holland and that Garry has been rocked before. He also mentions that Page is a plus-500 underdog by knockout, which offers value.
The Guru picks Michael 'Venom' Page over Ian Garry. He believes MVP can make the fight boring and win by being selective with exchanges. He notes Garry's dismissive attitude as coping and thinks Garry is chinny. He predicts MVP will win by KO in round one or two, citing reach advantage and MVP's ability to win on the outside.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 64 of 99 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 4:22 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 41 of 62 | 66% | 59 of 81 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 0 | 11 of 26 | 42% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 8 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 14 of 20 | 70% | 20 of 26 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 29 of 61 | 47% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 18 | 18 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 41 of 62 | 66% | 28 of 47 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 58 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 11 of 26 | 42% | 4 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 27 | 62% | 12 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 16 of 27 | 59% | 7 of 15 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 8 |
| Kevin Holland | 10 of 15 | 66% | 6 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 14 of 20 | 70% | 10 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 12 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-135), Page (+114)
Round 1
It is a striker’s delight coming up next, with a former Bellator fighter hoping to represent the UFC brand well. That ex-Bellator name would be Holland (25-10, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC), who prevailed at Bellator 195 against Teagan Dooley prior to his Contender Series fight. He greets Super Fight League veteran Page (21-2, 0-0 UFC), who may have also fought somewhere that that the commentary booth will not likely say. This could be a wacky one, so referee Andrew Glenn better know what he is getting himself into. Although they have had a back-and-forth leading up to this “featured fight of the night,” the welterweights do touch gloves first. Page springs back and forth, his hands down, and he swats away a punch from his opponent. Holland swings wide, and Page nails him with a low kick. Holland lands a jab, and he misses with a heavy left hand as Page is quick in and out. Holland misses on a punch, and Page tags him back and tells the crowd to hush because it was just a punch. Holland grins at him, and he comes forward and swings with everything he has as Page starts doing the Ali shuffle. Holland ties him up against the fence, where he stomps Page’s toes and smacks him with his shoulder. Holland continues thumping the Brit with his shoulder, until Page throws him aside and resets to his preferred striking range. Page reaches with a right hand over the top, and he elbows Holland on the temple when leaping forward. Page backs off and then jumps back in to grab Holland from behind, and Holland shrugs it off and absorbs an elbow when they break. Page delivers a kick to the side, and he hurts Holland with a right hand and makes a face at him. Holland charges and catches Page with a single elbow, but he gets blasted with an overhand right from the awkward Page. Page scores another huge right hand, and Holland responds with a low kick that knocks him off his feet momentarily. Page springs up and the two tie up, and Holland heel kicks the back of the thigh of Page. Holland uses open-handed slaps to box the ears, and he pulls himself free. Page dodges and connects with a clean right hand, and he strafes out of the way. Holland lunges forward, and even with a reach advantage, he cannot quite get off a shot on his opponent. Holland kicks the lead leg, and they crash together in a clinch. Holland pushes him to the wall, and he knees the Brit once before Page splits away. Page spins with an elbow that drill Holland in the forehead, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Page
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Page
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Page
Round 2
Holland is all smiles to start off the second round, and after a glove touch, he narrowly avoids a spinning wheel kick. Holland charges and catches Page at the end of a right hand, and he bullies Page to the fence. Holland uses the close range to knee his foe in the thigh a few times before Page splits off, and they resume their distant striking approaches. Holland comes up short on a winging right hand as Page is in and out like the wind, and Page pops him with a short right hand. Page considers an axe kick, and when he spins with a back kick, he topples over. “Trailblazer” charges after him, nearly dragging Page down from behind, and Page stands up. Holland drags him down from behind, and he practically falls into back control. Holland hooks up a choke, and Page turns to put his back to the mat so he can break it up. Holland lowers himself down and slashes with elbows, and he smothers his opponent in half guard. Page tries to sit up, and Holland presses him back down and elbows him a few more times. Page works his way to his knees and gets back to his feet, and he makes Holland pay for the ground game by nailing Holland with an overhand right. Holland almost walks face-first into a short right on the way in, and he whiffs with his own big right. Holland kicks behind the knee of his opponent, and Page connects with a short right hand. Page lands with a hard right hand, and he slings Holland to the ground. Holland is hurt, but Page does not bother finishing him in this position and instead lets him get back to his feet. Holland kicks the body and head, and he walks into a spinning back elbow. Holland races ahead after him, missing with most of his strikes, and the clinch ends the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Page
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Page
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Page
Round 3
The last round begins with Page charging, and he connects with a right hand and trips Holland up to throw him down. Holland laughs when he hits the ground, and Page appears to offer an apology, perhaps because he missed the glove touch. Holland climbs back up, and he ties Page up. Page tosses his foe down to a knee, and Holland pops back up and grabs Page from behind. Holland brings Page down to his knees, and Page fights his way to his feet and shoves Holland away. Page clips him with a fierce right hand, and he tosses Holland down and starts dancing. Holland rolls back to his feet and looks frustrated as Glenn lets him up. Page sprints in with two punches and a head kick, and Holland defends against it and takes a jumping side kick. Holland’s gas tank runs on empty as Page kicks him in the stomach. When Holland advances, Page spins with a back elbow that cuts Holland on the cheek. Page then trips and dumps him to the ground, and Holland climbs back up and crashes forward only to miss. Page ties him up, and the two start talking when clinched up. Page pushes him away, and he steps away from a low kick and lands a straight left hand. Holland grips a single, and this only pushes Page back to the wall so he can stomp his toes. Page stops any possible takedown and scoots away, and he leaps forward to nail Holland with a right hand. Holland stops the sweep that follows, and he walks into a body shot. Holland flails at air, unable to find his mark, and he dances away and is angry while telling Page to fight him. Page does not bite, so Holland pushes up close to him to clinch as the fight ends. The crowd does not love the conclusion of the fight, but it was the end of a one-sided performance for the showman Page, who has introduced himself to the UFC in a memorable way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Page (30-27 Page)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Page (30-27 Page)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Page (30-27 Page)
The Official Result
Michael Page def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo leans Michael Page, citing his unorthodox karate style, speed, and power. He thinks Page's awkwardness will cause Kevin Holland to miss and then look to wrestle. He acknowledges this is Page's toughest test and that Holland is durable and composed. He has a small bet at even money but won't parlay Page.
Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes that Holland has poor fight IQ and likely won't grapple, so the fight will stay on the feet. He expects a close, competitive striking match that goes the distance, and he takes the dog in Page. He has low confidence and thinks the judges could get it wrong.
Cody thinks Holland has the durability and volume to overwhelm Page, and that Holland can exploit Page's lack of recent activity and questionable chin. He notes that Holland has a clear path to victory via wrestling, but acknowledges Holland might choose to strike instead.
Daniel is confident in MVP, citing his unorthodox striking, speed, and improved takedown defense. He dismisses the idea that Holland will wrestle, noting Holland averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and is not a wrestler. Daniel believes MVP's distance and angles will frustrate Holland, and that Holland makes boneheaded mistakes. He bet MVP at plus 115 and expects a low-output striking match that could go to a split decision or a knockout of Holland.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Michael Page, though he initially hesitates. He notes that Page's recent results are actually improving and that his only losses are to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, both via wrestling-heavy game plans. Vreeland argues that Page is still a better kickboxer than Holland and that Holland's path to victory is wrestling, but he doubts Holland can execute that game plan. He points out that even Douglas Lima couldn't consistently wrestle Page, so Holland may struggle. Vreeland concludes that Page's striking is enough to win.
Jeff Fox picks Michael Page as a dog, citing Kevin Holland's tendency to strike rather than grapple. He believes Holland will choose to strike with Page, which plays into Page's strengths. Fox notes that Page is past his prime but still has the striking prowess to beat Holland. He references Page's losses to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, but argues that Page's striking is still elite and that Holland is not a strong wrestler. Fox is confident that Page's kickboxing will overwhelm Holland.
Page is a devastating striker with incredible speed, precision, and power. Holland will likely try to strike with him early, but his wrestling is not good enough to consistently take Page down. Page has good footwork and distance management to avoid takedowns and land his own shots. I expect Page to touch up Holland and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. Holland's tendency to leave openings when his wrestling fails will be his downfall.
Paul believes Page is past his prime and hasn't fought in a year, while Holland is durable and has a significant experience advantage. He thinks Holland can use his wrestling to control Page, but also notes that Holland might choose to stand and trade, which could be risky.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Page, predicting a boring fight but a win. He believes Page's low kicks will be key, as Holland has poor leg kick defense. He expects Holland to get frustrated and drop his output, and Page will drop him off-balance with a straight right. He cites Holland's losses to fighters who used leg kicks effectively.
Sam Patterson - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 0 | 27 of 55 | 49% | 33 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 12 of 64 | 18% | 25 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 2 of 26 | 7% | 5 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 6 of 27 | 22% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Page | 27 of 55 | 49% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 9 | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 12 of 64 | 18% | 4 of 50 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 8 | 10 of 60 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Page | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 4 of 11 | 36% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Page | 10 of 24 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 4 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 2 of 26 | 7% | 1 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Michael Page | 12 of 19 | 63% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 6 of 27 | 22% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.
Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.
Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.
Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.
This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.
The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.
Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.
Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Waters | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 0 | 25 of 48 | 52% | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Trey Waters | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 25 of 48 | 52% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Waters | 18 of 38 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 25 of 48 | 52% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Trey Waters | 18 of 38 | 47% | 9 of 23 | 3 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 18 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.
Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.
The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.
The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Barlow | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Barlow | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 1 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danny Barlow | 15 of 30 | 50% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danny Barlow | 15 of 30 | 50% | 10 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 18 of 34 | 52% | 14 of 28 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Angelo picks Danny Barlow, noting his longer reach and better use of range compared to Sam Patterson, who relies too much on his length. He believes Barlow will control the striking and potentially find a finish, though he has concerns about Barlow's ground game if the fight goes there. He sees Patterson as unlikely to win.
Big Brady picks Danny Barlow, citing his powerful left hand and Sam Patterson's poor striking defense. He notes Patterson's chin is exposed and he's been knocked out before. He predicts a first-round knockout, but warns that if the fight goes to the ground, Patterson could be dangerous.
Connor picks Barlow all day, emphasizing that Patterson's defense is still awful and he is unconscionably hittable. He notes that Barlow has size parity and is a good athlete who fights at range, which will force Patterson to reach and expose his chin. Connor recalls his previous criticism of Patterson and sees this as a clear win for Barlow.
The host expects a fun striking battle where Patterson may try to take the fight to the ground, but Barlow's wrestling defense will keep it upright. He believes Barlow's power striking, specifically his left straight, will catch Patterson and knock him out clean.
The Guru picks Sam Patterson as an underdog over Danny Barlow. He believes Patterson's grappling and reach advantage will be key, and that he can avoid Barlow's power. He notes Patterson's submission wins at 170 and his experience at 155. He predicts a submission win, likely a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.
Zane picks Barlow confidently, noting that Barlow is a long-range outboxer who just fought a similar tall fighter and was comfortable. He points out that Patterson's defense is awful and his chin is exposed, and Barlow has size parity, negating Patterson's usual advantages. Zane sees this as a nightmare matchup for Patterson.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kiefer Crosbie | 9 of 16 | 56% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Sam Patterson as the better overall fighter, but warns not to bet on him due to his history of getting knocked out. He notes that Patterson should wrestle early to avoid Crosbie's power. Angelo recalls Patterson's previous loss as a big favorite and advises caution.
Cody picks Sam Patterson, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes that Kiefer Crosbie is a limited brawler with poor grappling and that Patterson can use his reach and grappling to secure a submission. Cody believes Patterson will navigate the early danger and finish the fight on the ground.
Daniel dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as a YouTube boxer and thinks Sam Patterson can win by submission. He warns about Patterson's tall man's defense and knockout risk but believes he can get the fight to the ground and choke Crosbie out.
Paul also picks Patterson, noting that Crosbie is a short-notice replacement with a poor record. He believes Patterson's grappling and size will be too much, and that he will likely win by submission or TKO. Paul jokes about Patterson's long neck being chokeable but doesn't think Crosbie can capitalize.
The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Sam Patterson, calling it one of his locks of the card. He dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as 'garbage' and not UFC caliber, noting his poor physique and lack of skill. Patterson is described as a legitimate prospect who earned his way to the UFC, with a submission win over Johan Lesto. The Guru believes there is a clear skill difference and expects Patterson to win easily.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sam Patterson | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sam Patterson | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Yohan Lainesse | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.
Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.
Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.
Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.
I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.
Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.
The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sam Patterson | 0 | 15 of 20 | 75% | 15 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Yanal Ashmouz | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yanal Ashmouz | 2 of 7 | 28% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sam Patterson | 15 of 20 | 75% | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.
Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.
Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.
Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.
Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.
Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.
Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.
The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.
Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.
Expert Picks (12)
Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.
Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.
Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.
Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.
Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.
Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.
This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.
James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.
The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.
Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.
Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!