UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy Next Fight
Age 39
Height 6' 3"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 30
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Michael Page
2.28 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
1.51 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.19 TD Avg
16.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sam Patterson
2.62 SLpM
37.0% Str. Acc.
3.06 SApM
50.0% Str. Def.
0.82 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
33.0% TD Def.
1.6 Sub. Avg
Michael Page - Fight History
WIN vs Sam Patterson
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Page 0 27 of 55 49% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 12 of 64 18% 25 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Page 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Page 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 2 of 26 7% 5 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Michael Page 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 6 of 27 22% 16 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Page 27 of 55 49% 17 of 38 4 of 8 6 of 9 27 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 12 of 64 18% 4 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 8 10 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Page 5 of 12 41% 3 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Page 10 of 24 41% 6 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 4 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 2 of 26 7% 1 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Page 12 of 19 63% 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 6 of 27 22% 1 of 18 3 of 5 2 of 4 4 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.

calls -195 easiest money ever
"This has to be this has to be MVP. Like this ha The pick is MVP. If he loses to Sam Patterson, then cut his gloves off. Leave him in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.

Michael Page by second-round KO
"Give me Michael Page here. Give me Michael Page to get his best performance yet and knock out Sam Patterson in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.

"I'm with you. I think MVP is the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"If Sam Patterson is feasting out guys getting spooked by his aggression and jumping on opportunities, Michael Page is the king of never, ever, ever for a second, taking his eye off the ball."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Sam Patterson to come out here and choke out Michael Venom Paige in London."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.

"I think if Patterson can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and somehow get this to the mat, he might be a live dog here."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sam Patterson

This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80 (-125) is a great value bet; fight likely ends inside distance.
"Patterson is still the better bet here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.

Sam Patterson inside the distance, submission
"I'm going to outright pick Sam Patterson to win this fight. I'm going to pick Sam Patterson to win this fight inside the distance. And I'm going to pick him to win it via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.

"Give me MVP by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.

"I do got uh I do got Venom Paige to pull off the victory here, likely by KO in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.

first UFC finish by TKO
"I'll go MVP by finish this time. His first UFC finish by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"I just think he's almost certainly going to beat Sam Patterson. If he doesn't, it's going to be purely based on him timing something wrong and Patterson catching him because Patterson is a great opportunist."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Cannonier 0 20 of 57 35% 46 of 88 2 of 7 28% 0 0 8:14
Michael Page 0 29 of 55 52% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Cannonier 0 2 of 16 12% 10 of 24 0 of 3 0% 0 0 2:10
Michael Page 0 11 of 20 55% 11 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Cannonier 0 10 of 25 40% 12 of 27 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
Michael Page 0 11 of 20 55% 12 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
3 Jared Cannonier 0 8 of 16 50% 24 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:08
Michael Page 0 7 of 15 46% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Cannonier 20 of 57 35% 10 of 45 4 of 6 6 of 6 11 of 45 3 of 4 6 of 8
Michael Page 29 of 55 52% 19 of 45 8 of 8 2 of 2 27 of 53 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Cannonier 2 of 16 12% 0 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Page 11 of 20 55% 5 of 14 5 of 5 1 of 1 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jared Cannonier 10 of 25 40% 3 of 16 3 of 5 4 of 4 7 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Page 11 of 20 55% 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jared Cannonier 8 of 16 50% 7 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 8 0 of 0 6 of 8
Michael Page 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo believes this is a tailor-made matchup for MVP, as his speed and karate style will be too much for the powerful but slow Cannonier. He notes MVP has outstruck everyone in the UFC, including Ian Garry, and can pop in and out safely. He is surprisingly confident in MVP.

"This is a tailor made matchup for MVP. He can dance on the outside and rush in. Jared Cantaner is powerful, but he's not fast."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes Page is an incredible striker with a unique style that makes him hard to hit, and he has outlanded top strikers like Ian Garry and Kevin Holland. He thinks Cannonier will struggle to take Page down, as Cannonier has only one fight with more than one takedown. He favors Page heavily in distance striking and thinks Page wins a decision, possibly a knockout. He also mentions a prop bet on Page under 54.5 significant strikes.

Page under 54.5 significant strikes (Sleeper)
"I like Paige here. I think Paige wins a decision. Potentially even knocks out Caner, but I'll say decision here for Michael Paige."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, arguing that Page can frustrate Cannonier from range and that Cannonier is slowing down and less likely to have fight-stealing moments. He notes that Page is comfortable with boring fights and can make Cannonier look slow and cumbersome. However, he acknowledges that Cannonier's strength in the clinch could be a problem, but Page's ability to tie up after striking may mitigate that.

Cannonier opened at +115, currently +165; Page opened at -135, currently -190
"I'm still going to pick page. I think that he can really frustrate Cannonier."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michael Page

The host believes Page's elusive striking style will be too much for the veteran Cannonier. He predicts Page will pick apart Cannonier and eventually find a knockout in the second round.

knockout in the second round
"I believe the elusive striking style of Paige will be too much for the veteran here and I think that we'll see him pick apart Canoneer and I think that would eventually lead to him finding that knockout in the …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

The Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by decision over Jared Cannonier. He believes Cannonier will be too technical and hesitant to pressure Page effectively, instead opting for a low-output striking match. The Guru notes that Cannonier has a history of not taking risks, as seen in his fights with Marvin Vettori and Paulo Costa. He expects Page to outpoint Cannonier with movement and occasional highlights, winning a dull decision.

Decision win for MVP; low output fight; MVP lands about 22 significant strikes
"I'm going with Michael Venom Page over Jared Cananeer. ... I think Caner is going to lose a decision and I think it's going to be a fight where we're like why wasn't Canoneir risking it for the biscuit?"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Zane picks Page, noting that Page is a master of body language and can make even close rounds feel like his. He believes Cannonier is a middleweight version of Josh Koscheck, a tough but limited fighter who is winding down. Zane thinks Page's ability to pick his shots and avoid engagement will frustrate Cannonier, who doesn't cut off the cage well. He sees Page as a meme fighter who can carve a path to the top of the division.

Cannonier opened at +115, currently +165; Page opened at -135, currently -190
"I think I'll take page as well. I think, I mean, this is the thing with Michael Page and why he's so annoying to fight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 38 of 87 43% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Michael Page 0 43 of 75 57% 47 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 9 of 25 36% 9 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Page 0 13 of 21 61% 13 of 21 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 7 of 30 23% 9 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Page 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
3 Sharabutdin Magomedov 0 22 of 32 68% 32 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Michael Page 0 16 of 29 55% 19 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sharabutdin Magomedov 38 of 87 43% 8 of 42 17 of 20 13 of 25 34 of 82 4 of 5 0 of 0
Michael Page 43 of 75 57% 23 of 53 11 of 12 9 of 10 38 of 69 5 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sharabutdin Magomedov 9 of 25 36% 1 of 10 2 of 3 6 of 12 9 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Page 13 of 21 61% 7 of 14 1 of 2 5 of 5 13 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sharabutdin Magomedov 7 of 30 23% 0 of 18 5 of 7 2 of 5 7 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Page 14 of 25 56% 5 of 16 6 of 6 3 of 3 13 of 24 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Sharabutdin Magomedov 22 of 32 68% 7 of 14 10 of 10 5 of 8 18 of 28 4 of 4 0 of 0
Michael Page 16 of 29 55% 11 of 23 4 of 4 1 of 2 12 of 24 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo picks Michael Page, calling it his 'last ride' with MVP. He notes Page's unorthodox karate style, speed, and ability to cover distance. He believes Page's striking will frustrate Sharabutdin Magomedov, who is creative but may struggle with Page's movement. He acknowledges Page's age (37) and the risk of a knockout loss, but thinks Page can win a decision. He suggests looking at prop bets like MVP +3.5.

Suggests MVP +3.5 (spread) and decision prop.
"I'm going to pick MVP this is probably my last ride with MVP"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady thinks the odds make no sense and favors Michael Page at plus money. He praises Page's striking defense, noting he made Kevin Holland and Ian Garry look silly. Sharabutdin Magomedov has 42% striking defense and is there to be hit. Brady expects a close fight but predicts Page wins by decision, possibly split. He doesn't see Magomedov wrestling.

decision
"I got to go paig here especially at like plus 170 I I just don't see in what world Shara is looking anywhere near minus 200 he's not going to wrestle he's not going to he's going to have a …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Connor picks MVP, expecting him to produce his typical frustrating fight. He notes that Magomedov is directionally aimless and has a punchable face that invites aggression, but MVP's style of staying at range and countering is difficult to deal with. Connor believes Magomedov's leg kicks could be a factor, but MVP's willingness to make the fight boring and his reach advantage give him the edge.

"I'm picking MVP, by the way. I know it's supposed to be your pick first, but yeah, I've got feeling I'm picking MVP. He's just too weird and I don't know."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

James picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win, primarily due to hometown bias in Saudi Arabia favoring the Russian Muslim fighter. He also cites Magomedov's leg kick advantage against Page's karate stance, better durability, and finishing upside. He notes Page moves up to middleweight at 37-38, which is a disadvantage. He expects a close fight but sees Magomedov winning by decision, with potential for a knockout.

Magomedov by decision is implied; mentions leg kick damage and finishing upside.
"overall my prediction is going to be sh magedov wins the fight I'm going to say that he wins a fight via decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Page is very hard to hit and will set up counters effectively, potentially scoring a knockout if he lands the perfect shot. Magomedov lacks a wrestling background despite his name, which will be an issue. Page is expected to pick him apart similar to the Kevin Holland fight and win on the scorecards.

"I think that will cause him issues here as he goes up against a fighter in Page who is very hard to hit look for Page to set up a ton of counters move effectively maybe score a knockout if …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Sharabutdin Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Sharabutdin Magomedov to win by late-round TKO via ground and pound. He believes Magomedov's kicks and clinch will cause problems for MVP, and that MVP's takedown defense is weak. He notes MVP struggled with Ian Garry's grappling and that Magomedov has been drilling takedowns. He thinks MVP's move to middleweight may reduce his presence.

late rounds finish, ground and pound TKO in the third
"I'm going to go Sharon magedov getting this one done late rounds finish maybe ground and pound TKO in the third"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Zane picks MVP, agreeing with Connor that Magomedov's lack of defensive structure and tendency to be countered will be exploited. He notes that MVP's style of frustrating opponents and waiting for mistakes is effective, and Magomedov's leg kicks may not be enough to overcome MVP's reach and movement. Zane expects a boring fight but sees MVP winning.

"I'm picking MVP, by the way. I know it's supposed to be your pick first, but yeah, I've got feeling I'm picking MVP. He's just too weird and I don't know."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ian Machado Garry 0 19 of 39 48% 65 of 101 2 of 5 40% 2 0 7:29
Michael Page 0 21 of 38 55% 52 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ian Machado Garry 0 2 of 6 33% 27 of 41 1 of 1 100% 2 0 3:52
Michael Page 0 2 of 6 33% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ian Machado Garry 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:41
Michael Page 0 14 of 23 60% 31 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Ian Machado Garry 0 8 of 12 66% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:56
Michael Page 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ian Machado Garry 19 of 39 48% 12 of 26 3 of 7 4 of 6 9 of 25 5 of 7 5 of 7
Michael Page 21 of 38 55% 15 of 28 4 of 5 2 of 5 19 of 34 0 of 1 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ian Machado Garry 2 of 6 33% 2 of 4 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 2
Michael Page 2 of 6 33% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Ian Machado Garry 9 of 21 42% 4 of 13 2 of 3 3 of 5 5 of 15 4 of 6 0 of 0
Michael Page 14 of 23 60% 9 of 16 3 of 4 2 of 3 12 of 20 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 Ian Machado Garry 8 of 12 66% 6 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 1 of 1 4 of 5
Michael Page 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Cody picks Garry, emphasizing his youth, grappling advantage, and cardio. He notes that Page is 37 and has shown takedown defense issues, while Garry is a judo black belt with improving wrestling. Cody believes Garry will use leg kicks and clinch work to neutralize Page's movement, and that he can win a decision or possibly get a submission. He also mentions that Page's win over Kevin Holland was unimpressive and that Garry has the skills to implement a game plan.

"I'll take Ian Garry here likely by decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Daniel Vreeland picks Ian Garry because he believes Garry is smart enough to not let Michael Page fight his fight. He notes that Page's best performances come against opponents who are 'a little nuts' and willing to engage in chaos, but Garry is disciplined and won't be lured out of his game plan. Vreeland expects Garry to crowd Page, press him against the cage, and possibly mix in grappling to neutralize Page's striking range. He also points out that Garry has better grappling stats and is younger and more active.

"I think he's smart enough to not do that... Ian Gary I think you know despite the fact that some people haven't really liked him... the reason he's not exciting is because he's a guy who won't be lured out …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Daniel took MVP at plus 125 for two units, his first time picking against Garry. He believes MVP's speed and unorthodox style can fluster Garry, and that Garry's wrestling advantage is mitigated by MVP's improved takedown defense. He acknowledges the age difference (11 years) but sees MVP as an anomaly. He is worried about Garry's top control but is letting it ride.

"I took a MVP here I think plus 125 for two units this is my first time ever picking against Gary... I like MVP to come out here and kind of fluster Ian Gary with his speed."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Jeff Fox picks Ian Garry, stating that Garry has proven he knows how to stay safe and use range and distance better than Page. He notes that Page did not look impressive in his win over Kevin Holland and didn't put his foot on the gas, which could get him in trouble against Garry. Fox believes Garry is a very good deal at minus 137.

"Give me the Irishman give me Ian masary... he's proven that he has what it takes... he knows how to stay safe in fights and how to use range and distance."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

The host is confident in Garry, emphasizing his superior grappling. He believes Garry will exploit Page's takedown defense and use his wrestling to take the fight to the mat, where he can control or submit Page. He notes Garry is not outmatched on the feet and expects the line to move to -160 or -170 by fight time. He also mentions a submission prop at +900 as a sprinkle.

Garry by submission at +900
"I think we will see mad Gary for the first time in his UFC career look to utilize his grappling and I think it's going to happen very effectively here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Paul picks Page by knockout, admitting he is betting with his heart because he dislikes Garry. He acknowledges that Garry has a grappling advantage but believes Page's power and flashy striking can end the fight at any moment. Paul notes that Page looked good against Kevin Holland and that Garry has been rocked before. He also mentions that Page is a plus-500 underdog by knockout, which offers value.

by knockout +500
"I may bet with my heart here and bet Michael Venom Page by knockout plus 500."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

The Guru picks Michael 'Venom' Page over Ian Garry. He believes MVP can make the fight boring and win by being selective with exchanges. He notes Garry's dismissive attitude as coping and thinks Garry is chinny. He predicts MVP will win by KO in round one or two, citing reach advantage and MVP's ability to win on the outside.

KO in round one or two
"I'm gonna go with MVP over Ian Gary... I think MVP is going to put him away and catch him on the chin"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Page 0 29 of 61 47% 64 of 99 2 of 5 40% 1 0 4:22
Kevin Holland 0 41 of 62 66% 59 of 81 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Page 0 11 of 26 42% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Kevin Holland 0 17 of 27 62% 25 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
2 Michael Page 0 16 of 27 59% 26 of 37 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:05
Kevin Holland 0 10 of 15 66% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Michael Page 0 2 of 8 25% 8 of 15 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:23
Kevin Holland 0 14 of 20 70% 20 of 26 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Page 29 of 61 47% 11 of 37 4 of 6 14 of 18 18 of 47 4 of 5 7 of 9
Kevin Holland 41 of 62 66% 28 of 47 8 of 10 5 of 5 38 of 58 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Page 11 of 26 42% 4 of 19 1 of 1 6 of 6 9 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 17 of 27 62% 12 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 25 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Michael Page 16 of 27 59% 7 of 15 3 of 4 6 of 8 8 of 16 2 of 3 6 of 8
Kevin Holland 10 of 15 66% 6 of 10 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Page 2 of 8 25% 0 of 3 0 of 1 2 of 4 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kevin Holland 14 of 20 70% 10 of 16 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Michael Page
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-135), Page (+114)

Round 1
It is a striker’s delight coming up next, with a former Bellator fighter hoping to represent the UFC brand well. That ex-Bellator name would be Holland (25-10, 1 NC; 12-7, 1 NC UFC), who prevailed at Bellator 195 against Teagan Dooley prior to his Contender Series fight. He greets Super Fight League veteran Page (21-2, 0-0 UFC), who may have also fought somewhere that that the commentary booth will not likely say. This could be a wacky one, so referee Andrew Glenn better know what he is getting himself into. Although they have had a back-and-forth leading up to this “featured fight of the night,” the welterweights do touch gloves first. Page springs back and forth, his hands down, and he swats away a punch from his opponent. Holland swings wide, and Page nails him with a low kick. Holland lands a jab, and he misses with a heavy left hand as Page is quick in and out. Holland misses on a punch, and Page tags him back and tells the crowd to hush because it was just a punch. Holland grins at him, and he comes forward and swings with everything he has as Page starts doing the Ali shuffle. Holland ties him up against the fence, where he stomps Page’s toes and smacks him with his shoulder. Holland continues thumping the Brit with his shoulder, until Page throws him aside and resets to his preferred striking range. Page reaches with a right hand over the top, and he elbows Holland on the temple when leaping forward. Page backs off and then jumps back in to grab Holland from behind, and Holland shrugs it off and absorbs an elbow when they break. Page delivers a kick to the side, and he hurts Holland with a right hand and makes a face at him. Holland charges and catches Page with a single elbow, but he gets blasted with an overhand right from the awkward Page. Page scores another huge right hand, and Holland responds with a low kick that knocks him off his feet momentarily. Page springs up and the two tie up, and Holland heel kicks the back of the thigh of Page. Holland uses open-handed slaps to box the ears, and he pulls himself free. Page dodges and connects with a clean right hand, and he strafes out of the way. Holland lunges forward, and even with a reach advantage, he cannot quite get off a shot on his opponent. Holland kicks the lead leg, and they crash together in a clinch. Holland pushes him to the wall, and he knees the Brit once before Page splits away. Page spins with an elbow that drill Holland in the forehead, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Page
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Page
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Page

Round 2
Holland is all smiles to start off the second round, and after a glove touch, he narrowly avoids a spinning wheel kick. Holland charges and catches Page at the end of a right hand, and he bullies Page to the fence. Holland uses the close range to knee his foe in the thigh a few times before Page splits off, and they resume their distant striking approaches. Holland comes up short on a winging right hand as Page is in and out like the wind, and Page pops him with a short right hand. Page considers an axe kick, and when he spins with a back kick, he topples over. “Trailblazer” charges after him, nearly dragging Page down from behind, and Page stands up. Holland drags him down from behind, and he practically falls into back control. Holland hooks up a choke, and Page turns to put his back to the mat so he can break it up. Holland lowers himself down and slashes with elbows, and he smothers his opponent in half guard. Page tries to sit up, and Holland presses him back down and elbows him a few more times. Page works his way to his knees and gets back to his feet, and he makes Holland pay for the ground game by nailing Holland with an overhand right. Holland almost walks face-first into a short right on the way in, and he whiffs with his own big right. Holland kicks behind the knee of his opponent, and Page connects with a short right hand. Page lands with a hard right hand, and he slings Holland to the ground. Holland is hurt, but Page does not bother finishing him in this position and instead lets him get back to his feet. Holland kicks the body and head, and he walks into a spinning back elbow. Holland races ahead after him, missing with most of his strikes, and the clinch ends the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Page
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Page
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Page

Round 3
The last round begins with Page charging, and he connects with a right hand and trips Holland up to throw him down. Holland laughs when he hits the ground, and Page appears to offer an apology, perhaps because he missed the glove touch. Holland climbs back up, and he ties Page up. Page tosses his foe down to a knee, and Holland pops back up and grabs Page from behind. Holland brings Page down to his knees, and Page fights his way to his feet and shoves Holland away. Page clips him with a fierce right hand, and he tosses Holland down and starts dancing. Holland rolls back to his feet and looks frustrated as Glenn lets him up. Page sprints in with two punches and a head kick, and Holland defends against it and takes a jumping side kick. Holland’s gas tank runs on empty as Page kicks him in the stomach. When Holland advances, Page spins with a back elbow that cuts Holland on the cheek. Page then trips and dumps him to the ground, and Holland climbs back up and crashes forward only to miss. Page ties him up, and the two start talking when clinched up. Page pushes him away, and he steps away from a low kick and lands a straight left hand. Holland grips a single, and this only pushes Page back to the wall so he can stomp his toes. Page stops any possible takedown and scoots away, and he leaps forward to nail Holland with a right hand. Holland stops the sweep that follows, and he walks into a body shot. Holland flails at air, unable to find his mark, and he dances away and is angry while telling Page to fight him. Page does not bite, so Holland pushes up close to him to clinch as the fight ends. The crowd does not love the conclusion of the fight, but it was the end of a one-sided performance for the showman Page, who has introduced himself to the UFC in a memorable way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Page (30-27 Page)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Page (30-27 Page)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Page (30-27 Page)

The Official Result
Michael Page def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo leans Michael Page, citing his unorthodox karate style, speed, and power. He thinks Page's awkwardness will cause Kevin Holland to miss and then look to wrestle. He acknowledges this is Page's toughest test and that Holland is durable and composed. He has a small bet at even money but won't parlay Page.

Half unit bet on Page at +100.
"MVP is going to be the pick I have a small bet on him at plus 100 even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady picks Michael Page to win by decision. He notes that Holland has poor fight IQ and likely won't grapple, so the fight will stay on the feet. He expects a close, competitive striking match that goes the distance, and he takes the dog in Page. He has low confidence and thinks the judges could get it wrong.

win by decision
"I'll take Paige to here to win the win a close decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody thinks Holland has the durability and volume to overwhelm Page, and that Holland can exploit Page's lack of recent activity and questionable chin. He notes that Holland has a clear path to victory via wrestling, but acknowledges Holland might choose to strike instead.

Holland by submission (+800)
"I think Holland goes to his wrestling he wins this fight if he chooses to be an idiot and not go to his wrestling I think there's a good chance that he could actually just clip MVP with a nice …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Daniel is confident in MVP, citing his unorthodox striking, speed, and improved takedown defense. He dismisses the idea that Holland will wrestle, noting Holland averages less than one takedown per 15 minutes and is not a wrestler. Daniel believes MVP's distance and angles will frustrate Holland, and that Holland makes boneheaded mistakes. He bet MVP at plus 115 and expects a low-output striking match that could go to a split decision or a knockout of Holland.

"I think MVP is the side here I bet him at dog ODS May the best man win"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Daniel Vreeland also picks Michael Page, though he initially hesitates. He notes that Page's recent results are actually improving and that his only losses are to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, both via wrestling-heavy game plans. Vreeland argues that Page is still a better kickboxer than Holland and that Holland's path to victory is wrestling, but he doubts Holland can execute that game plan. He points out that even Douglas Lima couldn't consistently wrestle Page, so Holland may struggle. Vreeland concludes that Page's striking is enough to win.

"I think I might buck that fact that I don't know if this is the prime version of him anymore cuz like I mean look at his recent results it seems like the results are getting better."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Jeff Fox picks Michael Page as a dog, citing Kevin Holland's tendency to strike rather than grapple. He believes Holland will choose to strike with Page, which plays into Page's strengths. Fox notes that Page is past his prime but still has the striking prowess to beat Holland. He references Page's losses to Douglas Lima and Logan Storley, but argues that Page's striking is still elite and that Holland is not a strong wrestler. Fox is confident that Page's kickboxing will overwhelm Holland.

"Give me the dog I'm going with Michael Venom Page here uh I don't trust Kevin Holland I don't trust that he's going to Grapple which probably should be what he does here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Michael Page

Page is a devastating striker with incredible speed, precision, and power. Holland will likely try to strike with him early, but his wrestling is not good enough to consistently take Page down. Page has good footwork and distance management to avoid takedowns and land his own shots. I expect Page to touch up Holland and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. Holland's tendency to leave openings when his wrestling fails will be his downfall.

Page by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I do like paig here to touch up Kevin Holland uh maybe even knock him out in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul believes Page is past his prime and hasn't fought in a year, while Holland is durable and has a significant experience advantage. He thinks Holland can use his wrestling to control Page, but also notes that Holland might choose to stand and trade, which could be risky.

Holland by submission (+800)
"I think Holland goes to his wrestling he wins this fight if he chooses to be an idiot and not go to his wrestling I think there's a good chance that he could actually just clip MVP with a nice …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

The MMA Guru picks Michael Page, predicting a boring fight but a win. He believes Page's low kicks will be key, as Holland has poor leg kick defense. He expects Holland to get frustrated and drop his output, and Page will drop him off-balance with a straight right. He cites Holland's losses to fighters who used leg kicks effectively.

low kicks, drops Holland
"MVP is going to drop Holland ... I think MVP is going to chew up his leg at range"
Sam Patterson - Fight History
LOSS vs Michael Page
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michael Page 0 27 of 55 49% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 12 of 64 18% 25 of 78 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michael Page 0 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 4 of 11 36% 4 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Michael Page 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 2 of 26 7% 5 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
3 Michael Page 0 12 of 19 63% 17 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Sam Patterson 0 6 of 27 22% 16 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michael Page 27 of 55 49% 17 of 38 4 of 8 6 of 9 27 of 55 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 12 of 64 18% 4 of 50 4 of 6 4 of 8 10 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michael Page 5 of 12 41% 3 of 7 1 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 4 of 11 36% 2 of 8 1 of 1 1 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michael Page 10 of 24 41% 6 of 16 3 of 4 1 of 4 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 2 of 26 7% 1 of 24 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michael Page 12 of 19 63% 8 of 15 0 of 0 4 of 4 12 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 6 of 27 22% 1 of 18 3 of 5 2 of 4 4 of 23 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.

calls -195 easiest money ever
"This has to be this has to be MVP. Like this ha The pick is MVP. If he loses to Sam Patterson, then cut his gloves off. Leave him in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.

Michael Page by second-round KO
"Give me Michael Page here. Give me Michael Page to get his best performance yet and knock out Sam Patterson in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.

"I'm with you. I think MVP is the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"If Sam Patterson is feasting out guys getting spooked by his aggression and jumping on opportunities, Michael Page is the king of never, ever, ever for a second, taking his eye off the ball."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.

"I think if Patterson can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and somehow get this to the mat, he might be a live dog here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Sam Patterson to come out here and choke out Michael Venom Paige in London."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sam Patterson

This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80 (-125) is a great value bet; fight likely ends inside distance.
"Patterson is still the better bet here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.

Sam Patterson inside the distance, submission
"I'm going to outright pick Sam Patterson to win this fight. I'm going to pick Sam Patterson to win this fight inside the distance. And I'm going to pick him to win it via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.

"Give me MVP by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.

"I do got uh I do got Venom Paige to pull off the victory here, likely by KO in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.

first UFC finish by TKO
"I'll go MVP by finish this time. His first UFC finish by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"I just think he's almost certainly going to beat Sam Patterson. If he doesn't, it's going to be purely based on him timing something wrong and Patterson catching him because Patterson is a great opportunist."
WIN vs Trey Waters
KO R1 3:01 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 25 of 48 52% 25 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Trey Waters 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 25 of 48 52% 21 of 43 0 of 1 4 of 4 25 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Trey Waters 18 of 38 47% 9 of 23 3 of 6 6 of 9 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Trey Waters

Angelo picks Trey Waters, citing his toughness, speed, power, and similar reach advantage. He criticizes Sam Patterson's poor striking defense and chin-up stance. He notes that Patterson's length advantage is neutralized by Waters' even longer reach. The only concern is Waters' year-long layoff and potential weight cut issues. He plans to bet on Waters if he makes weight and looks good at weigh-ins.

will bet if makes weight well
"I'm going to pick Trey Waters here. I think Trey is tougher. I think he's faster. I think he hits harder."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady leans toward Sam Patterson, citing his grappling advantage and submission threat. He notes Patterson's striking defense is poor but believes his move to welterweight helps his chin. He predicts a second-round submission, as Waters was submitted in his only loss.

Patterson by submission, round 2
"I do lean Patterson here. I'm going to take Patterson to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The host notes Patterson is in a groove with a three-fight winning streak and is comfortable at 170 lbs. He expects Patterson to counter-strike Waters, shut down his jab, take him to the ground, and use his BJJ black belt to force a submission.

submission
"I think we'll see that continue into this fight as he counter strikes Waters, shuts down the jab of Waters, and eventually takes him to the ground and looks to utilize his BJJ black belt to force the submission."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson, highlighting his reach advantage and well-rounded game since moving to welterweight. He notes Patterson's finishing potential in multiple areas, including submissions and TKO, and contrasts that with Trey Waters' lack of a plan B. He predicts a submission win, possibly a rear-naked choke, after some striking exchanges.

submission
"I think Sam Patterson is a very good welterweight prospect in the UFC and I expect him to beat Trey Waters and I'm actually going to say he wins it by submission."
WIN vs Danny Barlow
KO R1 3:10 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Barlow 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Barlow 0 15 of 30 50% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 1 18 of 34 52% 18 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Barlow 15 of 30 50% 10 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 18 of 34 52% 14 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Barlow 15 of 30 50% 10 of 23 2 of 3 3 of 4 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 18 of 34 52% 14 of 28 4 of 6 0 of 0 15 of 29 0 of 0 3 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Angelo picks Danny Barlow, noting his longer reach and better use of range compared to Sam Patterson, who relies too much on his length. He believes Barlow will control the striking and potentially find a finish, though he has concerns about Barlow's ground game if the fight goes there. He sees Patterson as unlikely to win.

Potential prop bet on Barlow finish
"I think Danny's going to control the Striking because he actually uses his reach well I think he could potentially find a finish my only concern on the Danny side would be a situation where he ends up on the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Big Brady picks Danny Barlow, citing his powerful left hand and Sam Patterson's poor striking defense. He notes Patterson's chin is exposed and he's been knocked out before. He predicts a first-round knockout, but warns that if the fight goes to the ground, Patterson could be dangerous.

Barlow by KO round 1
"I'm going to take Danny Barlo to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Connor picks Barlow all day, emphasizing that Patterson's defense is still awful and he is unconscionably hittable. He notes that Barlow has size parity and is a good athlete who fights at range, which will force Patterson to reach and expose his chin. Connor recalls his previous criticism of Patterson and sees this as a clear win for Barlow.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yep, i'm picking barlow all day."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

The host expects a fun striking battle where Patterson may try to take the fight to the ground, but Barlow's wrestling defense will keep it upright. He believes Barlow's power striking, specifically his left straight, will catch Patterson and knock him out clean.

knockout
"this should be a fun striking battle where Patterson may look to try to get this fight to the ground but the wrestling back R of Barlo will allow him to keep this fight upright and then utilize his power …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Sam Patterson

The Guru picks Sam Patterson as an underdog over Danny Barlow. He believes Patterson's grappling and reach advantage will be key, and that he can avoid Barlow's power. He notes Patterson's submission wins at 170 and his experience at 155. He predicts a submission win, likely a rear-naked choke in the first or second round.

PrizePicks: Danny Barlow under significant strikes (if he loses)
"I'm going to side with Sam Patterson over Danny Bor... I'm going to take Sam Patterson by submission... re naked choke first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Danny Barlow

Zane picks Barlow confidently, noting that Barlow is a long-range outboxer who just fought a similar tall fighter and was comfortable. He points out that Patterson's defense is awful and his chin is exposed, and Barlow has size parity, negating Patterson's usual advantages. Zane sees this as a nightmare matchup for Patterson.

Barlow opened -322, now -294; Patterson opened +230, now +270.
"So I gotta pick barlow here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R1 2:50 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Kiefer Crosbie 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 9 of 26 34% 13 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:56
Kiefer Crosbie 0 9 of 16 56% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kiefer Crosbie 9 of 16 56% 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 9 of 26 34% 8 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kiefer Crosbie 9 of 16 56% 4 of 8 0 of 0 5 of 8 9 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Angelo picks Sam Patterson as the better overall fighter, but warns not to bet on him due to his history of getting knocked out. He notes that Patterson should wrestle early to avoid Crosbie's power. Angelo recalls Patterson's previous loss as a big favorite and advises caution.

advises not to bet on Patterson
"Sam Patterson is going to be the pick nobody should be betting on this guy nobody"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Sam Patterson, citing his BJJ black belt and submission game. He notes that Kiefer Crosbie is a limited brawler with poor grappling and that Patterson can use his reach and grappling to secure a submission. Cody believes Patterson will navigate the early danger and finish the fight on the ground.

Sam Patterson by submission
"Patterson by submission is how I see this one going down."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as a YouTube boxer and thinks Sam Patterson can win by submission. He warns about Patterson's tall man's defense and knockout risk but believes he can get the fight to the ground and choke Crosbie out.

wins by submission
"I think where he's got his best Avenue the victory is to find a way to get this guy to the map and choke him out shortly after"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul also picks Patterson, noting that Crosbie is a short-notice replacement with a poor record. He believes Patterson's grappling and size will be too much, and that he will likely win by submission or TKO. Paul jokes about Patterson's long neck being chokeable but doesn't think Crosbie can capitalize.

"Sam Patterson probably finds a way to get to this to the canvas he's got a huge frame... seems like a cupcake matchup for Sam Patterson."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru is extremely confident in Sam Patterson, calling it one of his locks of the card. He dismisses Kiefer Crosbie as 'garbage' and not UFC caliber, noting his poor physique and lack of skill. Patterson is described as a legitimate prospect who earned his way to the UFC, with a submission win over Johan Lesto. The Guru believes there is a clear skill difference and expects Patterson to win easily.

"I'm G to go with Sam Patterson here there's just a skill difference between the two of them and I think he's way better than Kea Crosby that's one of my locks of the card as well"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:03 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sam Patterson 0 1 of 9 11% 1 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Yohan Lainesse 0 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:41
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sam Patterson 1 of 9 11% 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Yohan Lainesse 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Angelo picks Lainesse due to his power and Patterson's suspect chin, referencing Patterson's recent knockout loss. He notes that both fighters can finish each other, but expects Lainesse to land on Patterson's chin. He also plans to bet the under on the round total if a 2.5 round line becomes available.

Under 2.5 rounds (if line drops)
"the easy answer is Johan has power Sam Patterson gets knocked out so I'm going to go with the easy answer here Johan liones is going to be the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Big Brady picks Lainesse but hates the pick. He notes Lainesse has changed his style to be too conservative and gun-shy, but still has power and takedown defense. He thinks if the old Lainesse shows up, he knocks out Patterson early. He questions Patterson's chin and defense but acknowledges Patterson could win if Lainesse fights timidly.

first round knockout
"I'll take liones to knock out Sam Patterson in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson as an underdog, citing Lainesse's poor cardio and chin. He thinks if Patterson survives the first round, he can take over with his grappling and submission game. He notes Lainesse's power but believes Patterson's length and jiu-jitsu will be key.

"I am going to take the slight underdog shot on Sam Patterson."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Daniel Vreeland picks Yohan Lainesse but is not confident. He notes Lainesse has devastating power and looked good in the Gabe Green fight before being stopped. He worries about Lainesse's recent gun-shy performances but hopes a change in training camp reignites his aggression. He expects a knockout if the old Lainesse shows up.

"give me Johan here but you know I'm not laying it"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)

This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Patterson vs Lainesse.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

I'm going with Patterson here. He is the better cleaner striker and has a better ground game. I wouldn't be surprised to see him change levels and look for a submission finish. Lainesse is a solid power puncher but in terms of raw skills, Patterson is the better fighter. If the line climbs closer to +150, it becomes even more attractive. I think no matter who wins, it ends by finish, and I'll take Patterson by submission.

submission prop, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm going to go with Patterson I think Patterson wins this fight likely by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

Paul leans Lainesse by KO in round 1, citing his power and Patterson's shaky chin. He acknowledges Lainesse's cardio issues but thinks he can get an early knockout. He doesn't love the bet but picks Lainesse.

Lainesse KO round 1
"I'll say Johan KO round one but don't love it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Yohan Lainesse

The MMA Guru picks Yohan Lainesse, emphasizing his power and the home crowd advantage in Canada. He criticizes Sam Patterson's defensive flaws, particularly his chin-up stance and susceptibility to overhands. He notes Patterson's recent KO loss and the risk of moving up in weight to face a heavy hitter. He predicts a KO win for Lainesse.

KO
"I'm going to go Johan leness I think he's going to find the KO he's fighting in front of his home crowd in Canada"
LOSS vs Yanal Ashmouz
KO (punches) R1 1:15 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Yanal Ashmouz 0 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sam Patterson 0 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Yanal Ashmouz 2 of 7 28% 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sam Patterson 15 of 20 75% 14 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 16
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Angelo is on the underdog Ashmouz, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +230. He thinks Patterson is overrated because he is tall but does not use his length well in striking and is very hittable. He notes Ashmouz is well-rounded, comes forward, and has a solid chin. He believes Ashmouz can overwhelm Patterson.

bet at +230
"I like you know I'll ask Moms to win this fight I got a quarter of a unit on him at plus 230."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Big Brady picks Patterson despite many red flags (poor striking defense, poor takedown defense). He is impressed by Patterson's submission game and believes he will find a submission win. He predicts a second-round submission, but notes he will look to fade Patterson in the future. He will not bet this fight at -260.

will not bet this fight
"I think he's Subs ashmost here I'm going to say second round submission for Patterson"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Cody picks Patterson, citing his size (6'3", 78" reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Patterson has fought good competition on the regional scene and has a nasty guillotine. He thinks Ashmouz will struggle to get inside and take Patterson down, and even if he does, Patterson can get back up. He says minus 270 is a bit steep for a UFC debut but Patterson should win.

"I actually do like Sam Patterson the tricky situation here though is that he's a minus 270 favorite in his UFC debut that's not something I love"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Connor picks Ashmouz, citing his violent grappling and punching power. He notes that Patterson is a tall, gangly fighter with gaps in his game, especially when pressured. Connor expects Ashmouz to close the distance, take Patterson down, and punish him on the ground, despite the significant size disadvantage.

"I am definitely going to pick Ashmouz."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Jacob is also on Ashmouz, criticizing Patterson's striking as resembling a high schooler with no power and a chin up in the air. He thinks Ashmouz's pressure and wrestling will be too much, and Patterson does not like to get hit. He expects Ashmouz to control the fight on the feet and on the ground.

"Sam Patterson sucks."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Patterson uses his long frame to pick opponents apart from distance and has a dangerous guillotine choke when they shoot. Ashmouz is wild and reckless, crashing the pocket with overhands, which could lead to a desperation takedown. Patterson should eventually snatch up a submission. The fight doesn't go to decision is the preferred bet.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think eventually he's gonna hurt you know and that will force a bad shot of you now which will allow Patterson to lock up that neck and take home and submission Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Paul picks Patterson, noting Ashmouz didn't impress in his PFL fight. He says Patterson's size and reach are huge advantages, and Ashmouz is giving up tons of size. He says there is some action on Ashmouz but it won't be him. He says Patterson is the pick but minus 270 is not a great price.

"Patterson's the pick but mine is two seven minus 270 new thank you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

The MMA Guru picks Sam Patterson to win by late-round submission, likely a guillotine. He praises Patterson's calmness and ability to latch on finishes, despite early trouble. He notes Patterson has faced tough competition outside the UK, including a draw with Ahmed Amir and a loss to a Dagestani fighter, which gives him valuable experience. He expects Patterson to weather early adversity and find a choke.

Patterson wins by submission (guillotine)
"I'm gonna go Sam Patterson wins this one and I think you'll win it by a late round submission"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Yanal Ashmouz

Zane also picks Ashmouz, agreeing that Patterson's defensive flaws and tendency to get hit will be exploited. He notes that Patterson has some interesting tall-man skills but is too uncoordinated and hittable. Zane believes Ashmouz's takedown game and top pressure will be decisive.

"I'll pick Ashmouz as well."
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Michael Page

Angelo picks Michael Page with extreme confidence, calling it the easiest money. He notes MVP is faster, cleaner, more powerful, and more technical everywhere. He believes Sam Patterson is chinny and that MVP should dominate. He references MVP's public complaints about the matchup.

calls -195 easiest money ever
"This has to be this has to be MVP. Like this ha The pick is MVP. If he loses to Sam Patterson, then cut his gloves off. Leave him in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Michael Page

Big Brady confidently picks Michael Page, praising his unique striking and ability to avoid being hit. He notes that Page out-lands opponents at distance and that Sam Patterson has sub-50% striking defense and a suspect chin. He thinks Page will style on Patterson and potentially knock him out, predicting a second-round KO. However, he acknowledges that if Patterson gets the fight to the ground, he could win.

Michael Page by second-round KO
"Give me Michael Page here. Give me Michael Page to get his best performance yet and knock out Sam Patterson in the second round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Page's experience against bigger opponents and Patterson's durability issues. He sees Page winning by KO or decision.

"I'm with you. I think MVP is the side here as well."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Connor picks Page, agreeing with Zane that Page is a clear favorite. He emphasizes that Page's style of moving around, mocking opponents, and landing clean shots is a nightmare for Patterson, who wants to step in and crack opponents. Connor notes that Page has shown he can remain calm against good fighters in the UFC, and Patterson's only path is if Page makes a rare mistake. He calls the booking a waste of both fighters' time.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"If Sam Patterson is feasting out guys getting spooked by his aggression and jumping on opportunities, Michael Page is the king of never, ever, ever for a second, taking his eye off the ball."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel initially thought MVP would style on Patterson, but after analysis, he sees Patterson as a live dog if he can get the fight to the mat. He notes MVP's age, speed decline, and past takedown issues. He thinks Patterson might be able to capitalize on MVP's vulnerabilities.

"I think if Patterson can avoid prolonged exchanges on the feet and somehow get this to the mat, he might be a live dog here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

Daniel Vreeland picks Sam Patterson as an underdog. He notes that MVP is older and dropping back down to welterweight, and Patterson has a strong submission game. If Patterson can get the fight to the ground, he can submit MVP.

"I'm going to pick the underdog Sam Patterson to come out here and choke out Michael Venom Paige in London."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Sam Patterson

This is a true 50/50 fight: Page has striking advantage, Patterson has grappling advantage. Patterson is the value bet at underdog odds. If Patterson grapples, he can submit or ground-and-pound Page. The under 2.5 rounds is a strong play.

Under 2.5 rounds at 1.80 (-125) is a great value bet; fight likely ends inside distance.
"Patterson is still the better bet here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Sam Patterson

James picks Sam Patterson as a big underdog, believing Patterson's grappling is a massive threat. He notes that Page is a great striker but can be taken down, and Patterson has submission skills. He also cites Patterson's hunger and age advantage, and thinks the odds are off.

Sam Patterson inside the distance, submission
"I'm going to outright pick Sam Patterson to win this fight. I'm going to pick Sam Patterson to win this fight inside the distance. And I'm going to pick him to win it via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Michael Page

The host picks Michael Page by knockout. He believes Page's speed and counter-striking will be too much for Patterson, who may struggle to land cleanly. He expects Patterson to get frustrated and walk into a big shot. However, he notes the lack of reach advantage for Page could be a factor.

"Give me MVP by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Page

Paul thinks Page's speed and striking will be too much for Patterson, who stands upright and is hittable. He expects a KO or clear decision for Page.

"I do got uh I do got Venom Paige to pull off the victory here, likely by KO in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

The MMA Guru picks Michael Venom Page to win by TKO, his first UFC finish. He notes Patterson is upright and has been caught with straight punches, while MVP is a crafty striker with underrated submission defense. He acknowledges Patterson's jiu-jitsu threat but believes MVP's range and timing will lead to a knockdown and finish.

first UFC finish by TKO
"I'll go MVP by finish this time. His first UFC finish by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Michael Page

Zane picks Page confidently, stating that Page is almost certain to beat Patterson. He notes that Page is the king of never getting shook up and always fights to his plan, while Patterson is an opportunistic finisher who relies on aggression and fear. Zane believes Patterson's style of pushing into the pocket and having terrible defense is perfect for Page to pick apart. He acknowledges a small chance Patterson could catch Page if Page times something wrong, but sees Page as a clear favorite.

Page opened at -155, dropped to -250, currently -180; Patterson opened at +135, jumped to +195, currently +155.
"I just think he's almost certainly going to beat Sam Patterson. If he doesn't, it's going to be purely based on him timing something wrong and Patterson catching him because Patterson is a great opportunist."