Career Averages - Movsar Evloev
Career Averages - Lerone Murphy
Movsar Evloev - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 86 of 189 | 45% | 124 of 234 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 89 of 239 | 37% | 89 of 239 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 40 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 86 of 189 | 45% | 47 of 134 | 33 of 44 | 6 of 11 | 80 of 178 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 |
| Lerone Murphy | 89 of 239 | 37% | 45 of 175 | 24 of 38 | 20 of 26 | 89 of 238 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 11 of 31 | 35% | 3 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 14 of 49 | 28% | 6 of 35 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 17 of 37 | 45% | 9 of 24 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 24 of 57 | 42% | 12 of 41 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 25 of 50 | 50% | 12 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 23 of 48 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Movsar Evloev | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 8 |
| Lerone Murphy | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Movsar Evloev | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 12 of 46 | 26% | 9 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.
Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.
Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.
Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.
Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.
Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.
James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.
The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.
Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 136 of 165 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 6:09 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 45 of 67 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 6:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 7 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 48 of 58 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:25 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 72 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:49 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 13 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 12 of 26 | 46% | 7 of 16 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 3 of 11 | 27% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 5 of 8 | 62% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Aljamain Sterling | 4 of 7 | 57% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Evloev (-265), Sterling (+215)
Round 1
Surprising many paying attention, this likely featherweight title eliminator is situated firmly on the prelims despite several lower-ranked contests at 145 playing out later on the billing. Evloev (18-0, 8-0 UFC) is not complaining, as he noted—likely accurately at that—that more people will be watching the ESPN-broadcasted prelims than tuning into the paid portion later. Sterling (24-4, 16-4 UFC) is not buying it and feels disrespected by his promotion, but that is nothing unusual for him given his history at bantamweight. This potentially fascinating grappling match will play out under the oversight of referee Jason Herzog, and it opens up with a glove touch. Sterling stalks his way forward, jabbing his way in and kicking with the ball of his foot. Evloev hops out of the way from a body kick, and one to his lead leg lands. Sterling catches him at the end of a right hand, and the Russian shrugs it off. Evloev kicks the front leg, and Sterling tries to time a head kick when Evloev ducks. Sterling connects with another big right hand, and he shoots in and drags Evloev down to force Evloev to put his hands on the mat. Chants of “USA” boom through the arena, and Sterling channels this energy and knees Evloev hard in the side. Sterling hangs on from the side and nearly back, and he complains that Evloev is grabbing his glove. Evloev adjusts and scoots his way to the wall, with Sterling following him every scoot of the way. Sterling has his hands clasped around Evloev’s waist, and he gets in a hook to take the back. “Funk Master” slides the second hook in, and he holds on tight while trying to free his right hand to set something up. Sterling again mentions that his glove is being grabbed, and Evloev elbows behind him on either side. Evloev stands up, and Sterling is still wrapped around him. The former bantamweight king lifts Evloev off the ground and slams him down, and the ensuing scramble allows Evloev to take his back. Sterling ducks a strike and is taken to the floor, and he sets up a guillotine choke but is in the wrong angle to get it. Evloev turns the corner as Sterling sits up, and he lowers himself down and wraps Sterling up in a crucifix as he drops to his back. The close round ends with Sterling taking punches upside the head.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Sterling
Round 2
Sterling is the initial aggressor in the second round, pushing out a front kick, dropping back to avoid a few punches and crashing through to put Evloev on his seat. Evloev scrambles well enough to get to 50/50 position, and he stands up as Sterling holds onto his single leg. Evloev flips him around and lowers himself down in side control, hooking his legs around Sterling’s arm to go for a crucifix. Evloev takes the back, but Sterling pulls his hook out and turns. Evloev lands a few hammerfists to the side of the head as Herzog says “ears” a few times to let Evloev know that he needs to aim for the ears and not hit the back of the head. Sterling explodes around to get out of harm, and he wraps up Evloev and tries to slam him down on his face in what would have been a pro wrestling-style move. Evloev does not fall victim to it, turning around to shoot for a single. Sterling stifles it and loads up on a right hand, and Evloev backs him off with a right hand and a kick. Evloev wings a spinning wheel kick, and when planting his foot, he drills “Funk Master” in the face with a strong right hand. The success of the strike allows the Russian to shoot in and put Sterling on his back. Evloev looks to assert himself in half guard, even briefly considering an arm-triangle choke only to get elbowed in the side of the head a few times. Evloev takes Sterling’s back, and Sterling does not appear concern and instead scrambles out of it without much concern. Evloev again sets up a crucifix, and Sterling counters with a single and briefly gets top position. This back-and-forth grappling match is living up to the hype, and Sterling pursues a double when Evloev gets away. The horn sounds with Sterling in the midst of the shot.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Round 3
Having reached the final round, both men clap hands. Sterling flashes out a front kick and a long jab, and he is able to escape the lunging Evloev from landing on him. Sterling ducks a big punch and gets off an uppercut, and he dips down low to evade a spinning back fist and tackles the Russian to the floor. Evloev returns to a knee, and Sterling remains busy pursuing the takedown. Evloev wraps an arm around Sterling’s head, and Sterling takes advantage of this by slinging Evloev down on his face. Evloev pushes off the floor to stand, and Sterling is leaning on him imposing his will while the crowd is in full support of the American. Sterling jams Evloev against the fence, allowing Evloev to knee him so he can move around to partially take Evloev’s back standing. Sterling drags Evloev to the floor, and as they slide around in a furious series of scrambles, Evloev flips his man over and resides on top. Evloev slugs Sterling in the chops a few times while they are both seated, and Sterling explodes back to his feet. Evloev whips Sterling around and back down, and he gets one hook in but is dropped on his head. Sterling does not escape the downed position, on both knees as Evloev punches him on the side of the head. Evloev turns Sterling to his back, and he opens up with punches. Sterling gets his hooks in and briefly holds the back, and when he scrambles, Evloev hooks his leg around Sterling’s shoulder. The final bell sounds while the two are in the midst of grappling, and it could be anyone’s game.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
The Official Result
Movsar Evloev def. Aljamain Sterling via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Movsar Evloev confidently, stating Evloev is a better wrestler than Sterling and has superior striking. He dismisses Sterling's unorthodox striking as not intentionally effective. Angelo believes Evloev will take Sterling down at will and control the fight, similar to how he beat Arnold Allen. He expects a dominant performance.
Cody picks Sterling as a live underdog, citing his superior striking and wrestling. He notes Sterling's wins over top competition and believes his volume and back-taking ability will trouble Evloev. He expects a decision win for Sterling.
Connor picks Sterling because he believes Sterling has more tools to win if he can keep Evloev from wrestling. He notes that Evloev's pressure-based style can be shut down, and that Sterling's high-output striking and grappling are well-suited to a three-round fight. Connor also points out that Evloev has been walking a fine line and has been hurt in fights, while Sterling has shown improvement in his striking. He acknowledges that Sterling's cardio could be an issue but thinks over three rounds it might be enough.
Daniel believes Evloev is ahead in every area, with better grappling and striking. He criticizes Sterling's cardio, striking technique, and takedown entries. He notes Evloev's ability to survive submission attempts and his punching power, citing damage done to Arnold Allen.
Evloev's grappling ability and scrambling will keep him out of bad positions from Sterling. He can remain in dominant position or use defensive grappling to stay upright and touch up Sterling, who doesn't look comfortable striking. Evloev will put together a good body of work through grappling and striking to win on the scorecards.
Paul picks Sterling, calling it a lock. He highlights Sterling's technical skills, wrestling, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Evloev's takedowns won't be as effective and Sterling's striking advantage will be key. He expects a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Evloev, believing he is too much for Sterling on the feet. He notes Evloev's improved standup, quicker punches, and ability to mix in takedowns. He trusts Evloev to win close rounds by shooting takedowns in the last 30 seconds to sway judges. He predicts a 29-27 decision with all rounds competitive.
Zane picks Evloev, citing that he does not fully trust Sterling as a featherweight. He notes that Sterling's style, which relies on volume and wrestling, may not work against a bigger, aggressive grappler like Evloev. Zane points out that Evloev has shown he can handle high-level grappling, as seen in his fight with Diego Lopez, and that Sterling has a history of gassing. He also mentions that Sterling has never faced a fighter like Evloev who is eager to grapple and pressure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 59 of 140 | 42% | 61 of 143 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 51 of 118 | 43% | 72 of 141 | 5 of 17 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 3:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 12 of 40 | 30% | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 22 of 38 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 18 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 21 of 47 | 44% | 25 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 29 of 58 | 50% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 25 of 51 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 59 of 140 | 42% | 41 of 115 | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 124 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 4 |
| Arnold Allen | 51 of 118 | 43% | 35 of 101 | 12 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 45 of 110 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 12 of 40 | 30% | 9 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 13 of 28 | 46% | 9 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 18 of 42 | 42% | 13 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 36 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 21 of 47 | 44% | 15 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 29 of 58 | 50% | 19 of 44 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Arnold Allen | 17 of 43 | 39% | 11 of 37 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Evloev (-180), Allen (+150)
Round 1
The five-fight main card of UFC 297 is not playing around, as we kick things off with Top 10 featherweights Allen and Evloev. This fight will have a direct impact on the 145-pound title picture, and as a couple of the best fighters under 30 in the division, it’s entirely possible that these two will meet again sometime in the next few years with a belt on the line. Allen, the Brit but longtime Tristar Gym exponent, gets the adoptive native pop from the crowd. Marc Goddard is the third man in the cage. They go right to work, Allen southpaw, Evloev orthodox. Evloev lands a right body kick to the open side. He goes upstairs with a kick next, but Allen evades it easily. Allen’s right jab and hand fighting are on point early, giving Evloev trouble getting his left hand working. Evloev comes forward and runs into a body punch from Allen. Allen gives chase and lands another left to the body. Evloev changes levels and grabs a single-leg, briefly getting Allen to the ground, but they pop back up with Evloev still holding the leg. Allen escapes a moment later and they return to the middle to the cage. With two minutes to go, Evloev tries another head kick, which glances off the raised arms of Allen. Allen’s jab is a constant presence, but Evloev ducks under one and gets a clean takedown. He can’t secure top position, however, as Allen hits a gorgeous Granby roll and spins to his feet. Evloev re-shoots, hauls him down again, and Allen uses another Granby roll. What a scramble. Evloev follows Allen, takes his back standing and lifts and dumps him on the canvas right before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Round 2
Allen’s righty jab is pumping right from the get-go, working to keep Evloev on the outside. Evloev paws out at the hand with his right, trying his own jab. Allen throws a murderous-looking high kick that bounces off the guard of Evloev. Allen throws another high kick, again off of the Russian’s arms, but the cumulative impact to the arms can’t be disregarded at this point. Evloev shoots a single-leg, switches to a double and plows Allen to the ground in the middle of the cage. Allen stands, with Evloev stuck to his back, and goes to the cage. Allen turns toward Evloev, briefly considers a front headlock, but gives it up and uses underhooks to shove Evloev away from his hips. They disengage and move back to the center of the cage, where Evloev meets him with a jumping knee. Allen comes back with another body punch. With under a minute to go, Allen lands another left to the body. Evloev catches him with a right to the chest, then clocks him with a crushing jab that rocks Allen badly. Allen stumbles away, bleeding from a cut under the left eye. Evloev gives chase, but stays measured—or doesn’t realize how badly he has his man hurt. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Round 3
Between rounds, Allen’s corner more or less tells him he needs a finish, and he comes out aggressively. He backs Evloev up with a flurry of punches, then catches him with a clean, hard three-punch combination. Evloev throws a right cross and tries to shoot a takedown behind it, but Allen is wise to it and steps out of the way, nailing him with a left hand as he does. Evloev changes levels and Allen uses a front headlock to drive him across the cage, throwing knees to the head all along the way. Some of them look as though they might be illegal, as Evloev’s hand is on the canvas intermittently, while Allen tries to elevate him and knee him at the same time. Referee Goddard stops the action, has the cageside doctor examine a cut created by one or more of the knee strikes, and issues a “hard warning” to Allen without taking a point. They go back to work and, with half the round gone, Allen is on the front foot once again. Allen’s jab is there, but Evloev counters him with a kick up the middle. Allen lands another body punch. Evloev shoots right into a front headlock. Allen locks up a ninja choke, then gator rolls to top position. Evloev somehow spins through and ends up on top in north-south, having broken the grip. Another incredible ground sequence from these two standouts. They return to the feet and go careening into the fence, where Evloev is on Allen’s back. Allen throws a nice blind elbow behind him, but can’t land any Hail Marys, and the final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen (29-28 Evloev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Allen (29-28 Evloev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Allen (29-28 Evloev)
The Official Result
Movsar Evloev def. Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Evloev, believing his wrestling will be the difference. He notes Allen's excellent takedown defense (not taken down since 2018) but thinks Evloev's chain wrestling and volume will eventually get takedowns. He compares the fight to Fares Ziam vs. Terrance McKinney, expecting a 30-27 decision. He is unsure about including Evloev in the safety parlay.
Big Brady picks Evloev, citing his undefeated record and high takedown volume. He notes Allen's takedown defense is good but not great, and that Allen has been taken down multiple times in the past by wrestlers. He believes Evloev will control the fight with wrestling and win a decision, unless Allen lands a knockout which he doesn't see happening.
Cody picks Evloev by decision, emphasizing his elite wrestling and ability to control the fight. He notes Allen's struggles against wrestlers like Mads Burnell and believes Evloev will replicate that game plan. He sees Evloev's decision prop as good value.
Vreeland picks Evloev, citing his well-rounded game and solid striking. He believes Evloev is a slightly better all-around fighter than Allen, and that his grappling will be a key factor. Vreeland notes that Allen hasn't faced a grappler of Evloev's caliber recently, and that Evloev's takedowns could decide the fight. He suggests watching the first minute to see if Evloev can get takedowns, which would indicate his path to victory.
Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win a comfortable decision. He believes Evloev's relentless wrestling and pressure will neutralize Allen over three rounds, especially in the later rounds. He notes Evloev's takedown volume and ability to mix striking with takedowns. He bet two units on Evloev at -175.
Fox picks Allen, arguing that his striking is sharper than Evloev's. He points to Evloev's close fight with Diego Lopes on short notice and Allen's competitive fight with Max Holloway as evidence. Fox believes the key question is whether Evloev can get takedowns; if not, Allen wins the striking exchanges. He suggests it may be a live bet opportunity after the first minute.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Evloev vs Allen.
I love Evloev in this spot. Even if he doesn't land takedowns, his volume and output advantage should be enough to win on the scorecards if it becomes a striking battle. Allen's takedown defense has been good recently, but the level of wrestlers he faced is not as high as Evloev. Evloev is well-rounded enough to mix up his game and combat Allen's low output. I think Evloev wins by decision and possibly puts himself in a number one contender fight.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Evloev by decision. He thinks Evloev's wrestling will be the difference and the fight will be ugly. He notes the best price on Evloev by decision is -117.
The MMA Guru picks Arnold Allen as an underdog, despite acknowledging Evloev's grappling. He cites Evloev's recent ACL injury and poor striking defense, noting openings in his punches. He praises Allen's lateral movement, defensive wrestling, and ability to counter. He predicts a close decision win for Allen, 29-28.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 88 of 129 | 68% | 183 of 228 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 8:30 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 37 of 69 | 53% | 48 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 4 | 1 | 0:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 65 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 28 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 39 of 66 | 59% | 79 of 107 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 33 of 41 | 80% | 39 of 47 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Diego Lopes | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 1 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 88 of 129 | 68% | 76 of 116 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 45 of 81 | 11 of 11 | 32 of 37 |
| Diego Lopes | 37 of 69 | 53% | 29 of 57 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 27 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 16 of 22 | 72% | 14 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
| Diego Lopes | 17 of 27 | 62% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 10 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 39 of 66 | 59% | 37 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 22 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
| Diego Lopes | 10 of 24 | 41% | 7 of 20 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 33 of 41 | 80% | 25 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 | 17 of 25 | 10 of 10 | 6 of 6 |
| Diego Lopes | 10 of 18 | 55% | 9 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Evloev (-900), Lopes (+600)
Round 1
On extremely short notice, unbeaten Russian Evloev (16-0, 6-0 UFC) will no longer be facing Bryce Mitchell in a major featherweight collision. Instead, he battles late replacement and unsuccessful Dana White’s Contender Series vet Lopes (20-5, 0-0 UFC), who springboarded into the organization on the heels of a pair of knockouts last year. Evloev will serve as the highest betting favorite of the evening by a wide margin, with odds around -1000 in his favor, and he may need to demonstrate that level of perceived dominance to move up in his crowded division. Thankful to be competing tonight, the fighters touch gloves, and referee Keith Peterson is ready for however the match plays out from here. There will be no nonsense. Lopes takes the center of the cage, and he slaps out a low kick early. The Russian replies immediately with the same kick, and Lopes loops a right hand over the top. The Brazilian follows it with a calf kick, and Evloev ducks back and catches the newcomer with a left hand. The strikes landing from Lopes draw a reaction from Evloev immediately, who starts slinging punches. A mighty brawl ensues, and Evloev manages to trip Lopes out and drop him to the mat after they trade fists. Lopes falls to his back in search of a leglock, and Evloev spins out of it and shuts down a subsequent triangle choke attempt. Evloev begins to open up with his strikes, until Lopes turns to his side to lock one leg over and around Evloev’s shoulder. Evloev fights out of it before it transforms into an armbar, and Lopes is quick to set up one on the other side. Lopes rolls to his back and locks the armbar down, and Evloev brilliantly survives it, turns into it and winds up on top. Evloev breaks out of another possible submission setup to lower himself flat on top, and he drills the neophyte with a clean right hand. Lopes looks for another armbar, and he rolls all the way to his face on the ground, and Evloev stops this by smashing him in the face. Lopes returns to his back, and he sets up a triangle choke with seconds to spare. The round ends, and judges might see this one going either way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Round 2
The featherweights greet in the middle of the cage with a clap of hands to reintroduce themselves to one another, and Evloev is the initial aggressor. The Russian lands a right hand behind the ear, and Lopes catches him and staggers him with a left hook. Evloev gets backed off from a stream of punches, and he retaliates with a right hand that wraps around the guard. Lopes sneaks a right hand in when trading, and Evloev takes a few steps back to get out of range and stick out a jab. The unbeaten fighter fires off a head kick, and he spins with a wheel kick that misses the mark. Evloev strings three punches together on the chin, and Lopes loads up on his punches. Evloev’s sharp strikes start to connect more frequently, and Lopes is keener on unloading single dangerous blows. Evloev backs him off with a few punches in a row, and Lopes tags him with one back. Evloev shoots in for a takedown, and he succeeds in putting the Brazilian on his back. Lopes gets pummeled with a series of punches to the head and body, and Lopes briefly boots him with an upkick to back him off. Evloev climbs back down into the guard without fear, as the submission attempts from the short-notice replacement are fewer and farther between. Evloev alternates his right hands to the ribs and temple, and Lopes cannot defend against them before the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Evloev
Round 3
The last round kicks off with Lopes pushing the pace, and he connects with a few looping strikes before Evloev counters to shut him down. Evloev attacks from angles while Lopes plods straight forward, and Lopes eats a few body shots and blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Evloev launches a huge right hand that slams into the side of his foe’s head, and he lands a few punches and an elbow before Lopes can muster a response. Lopes loads up on his punches, and Evloev sees them coming and dodges and weaves. Evloev evades a swing to elbow his man in the face, and he scoops Lopes off the ground and dumps him to the mat. Evloev opens up immediately with ground-and-pound, and Lopes pushes him off with his feet and works his way up to his feet. The quick mat return from Evloev puts the newcomer back down again, and Evloev hangs onto him from behind while Lopes stands once more. From an unusual angle from the back, Evloev whips several kicks to the leg and even one up high, further frustrating a fatiguing Lopes. Evloev knees the inner thigh, and he hits a takedown. Lopes instantly threatens with a kimura, and he succeeds in sweeping Evloev over while still hanging onto the sub. Lopes considers a triangle choke to keep Evloev downed, but Evloev musters all of his energy to power back up and out of the submission. Evloev fights off an armlock, and Lopes quickly dives after a kneebar. The knee hyperextends, and Evloev rolls over through it and shakes his head that he will not tap out. Evloev’s poker face is incredible, as the damage to his tendons and ligaments must be severe. Evloev grits out the pain as Lopes torques on his limb with all his might, and the bell sounds before the submission can be completed. Even in likely defeat, Lopes likely impressed the masses with his promotional debut, threatening the undefeated fighter several times from bell to bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Evloev (29-28 Evloev)
The Official Result
Movsar Evloev def. Diego Lopes via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks Movsar Evloev confidently, comparing this fight to Bryce Mitchell's loss to Ilia Topuria. He argues that Mitchell is a one-dimensional wrestler with mediocre wrestling by international standards (Arkansas wrestling), while Evloev is an international-level wrestler with excellent chain wrestling and takedown setups. Angelo believes Evloev's wrestling will dominate Mitchell, as Mitchell only wrestles and will be outclassed. He dismisses Mitchell's previous success as being against lower-level competition.
Big Brady picks Evloev but is cautious about the wide odds. He notes Evloev has been taken down before (by Mike Grundy) and Mitchell has good top control. However, he trusts Evloev's scrambling, get-up game, and cardio to outwork Mitchell over three rounds. He expects Evloev to get takedowns and win a decision, though Mitchell might win the first round.
Cody sees this as a massive mismatch, with Evloev being a huge favorite. He notes that Lopes was taken down three times by Joanderson Brito on the Contender Series and had no ability to get up. Evloev has superior wrestling, striking, and cardio. He expects Evloev to dominate via wrestling and win easily, possibly by decision since he's not a big finisher.
Connor also picks Evloev, emphasizing that Lopes' style of stepping into the pocket to brawl is takedown fodder and that Evloev is a composed fighter who will exploit that. He notes that Lopes has struggled on the regional scene against good opponents and that Evloev is a terrible matchup on short notice.
The host picks Movsar Evloev, citing his well-rounded game and striking improvements. He believes Evloev's defensive grappling will keep the fight standing, where he can land significant damage. He expects Evloev to win a dominant decision and sees him as a future title contender.
Paul agrees completely, saying the only chance for Lopes is a flying knee or a sloppy takedown. He notes Lopes is tall with poor base and wild striking, making him easy to take down. Evloev should win cleanly, and Paul suggests looking at prop bets like Evloev by decision or inside distance.
The Guru picks Evloev, stating he is better in every area and won't fear Mitchell's grappling. He expects Evloev to outgrapple Mitchell, take his back, and control the fight, though it may be boring. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with Mitchell possibly having a moment in round three but Evloev winning 2-1.
Zane picks Evloev confidently, noting that Evloev is extremely well-rounded, composed, and has a multifaceted takedown game. He points out that Lopes' brawling style leaves him open to takedowns and that Evloev's jab and ability to sniff out openings will be too much. Zane also mentions that Lopes has struggled against composed, high-level opponents in the past.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 42 of 106 | 39% | 47 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 68 of 129 | 52% | 144 of 213 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 0 | 0 | 6:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 19 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 28 of 50 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 30 of 66 | 45% | 54 of 93 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 15 of 18 | 83% | 62 of 70 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 0 | 0 | 4:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 42 of 106 | 39% | 25 of 85 | 14 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 38 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Ige | 68 of 129 | 52% | 50 of 109 | 12 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 51 of 110 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 17 of 44 | 38% | 11 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 23 of 45 | 51% | 14 of 34 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 20 of 52 | 38% | 11 of 41 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 30 of 66 | 45% | 23 of 59 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Ige | 15 of 18 | 83% | 13 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
Angelo praises Movsar Evloev's wrestling and striking setups, noting his chain wrestling and takedown averages. Dan Ige is well-rounded but Angelo is confident Evloev will win via decision, as he has in his previous five UFC wins. He bet on Evloev by decision at -155.
Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev to win by decision. He thinks Evloev will implement his game plan of takedowns and control, similar to how Korean Zombie took down Ige. He notes Ige is a good striker but Evloev won't give him many opportunities on the feet. He believes Evloev is a black belt in BJJ and can stay safe on top, grinding out a decision. He sees this as a bad matchup for Ige and expects Evloev to go 16-0.
Cody provides a detailed breakdown, noting Evloev's wrestling and back-taking ability, and Ige's struggles against wrestlers. He references Ige's losses to Korean Zombie and Josh Emmett as a blueprint for Evloev. He picks Evloev by decision and plans to bet that prop.
Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev, viewing him as a future top-5 fighter with relentless wrestling and a strong chin, as shown in the Mike Grundy fight. He believes Dan Ige is a tough but fringe top-15 gatekeeper who will struggle with Evloev's chain wrestling and pressure. He expects a decision win for Evloev and suggests the decision prop at -175 as a parlay piece.
Paul picks Evloev but doesn't love the moneyline price. He notes Evloev's undefeated record and wrestling advantage, and suggests Evloev by decision as a better bet. He acknowledges Ige's durability and toughness but thinks Evloev's grappling will be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by 29-28 unanimous decision. He highlights Evloev's grappling ability to take the back and maintain dominant positions, similar to what Korean Zombie did to Ige. He worries about Evloev's chin but believes Ige lacks the power to finish. He expects Evloev to win the first two rounds via grappling, with Ige possibly taking the third. He notes featherweight fights rarely end in finishes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 42 of 90 | 46% | 193 of 266 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 2 | 0 | 8:55 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 39 of 92 | 42% | 60 of 129 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 69 of 74 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:36 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 7 of 18 | 38% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 14 of 15 | 93% | 91 of 109 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:34 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 17 of 62 | 27% | 33 of 83 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 0 | 31 of 70 | 44% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 42 of 90 | 46% | 37 of 83 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 63 | 5 of 9 | 16 of 18 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 39 of 92 | 42% | 26 of 70 | 7 of 14 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 89 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 11 of 13 | 84% | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 7 of 18 | 38% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 14 of 15 | 93% | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 14 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 17 of 62 | 27% | 13 of 56 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 52 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 |
| Hakeem Dawodu | 31 of 70 | 44% | 20 of 54 | 7 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 67 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev, highlighting his well-rounded skills, including solid striking and excellent takedown game. He acknowledges Dawodu has a striking advantage but believes Evloev's takedowns and control time will edge out a decision win. He notes Evloev's undefeated record and impressive cardio.
Cody leans towards Dawodu as an underdog, citing his striking pedigree and takedown defense improvements. He thinks if Dawodu can keep the fight standing, he has the advantage. He notes Evloev's wrestling is not elite and that Dawodu's style is tailored to upset grapplers.
Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev by decision, citing his relentless pace and clinch grappling. He acknowledges Dawodu's technical striking and calf kicks but believes Evloev's work rate and takedowns will be the difference. He notes that Evloev has shown championship qualities by escaping deep submissions. He thinks the line is a bit wide but still favors Evloev.
Evloev has a strong wrestling and grappling base, which should neutralize Dawodu's Muay Thai. The threat of takedowns will limit Dawodu's striking output, and Evloev's volume and cardio give him an edge. Dawodu is durable, so Evloev likely wins a decision. The value is on Dawodu, but Evloev is the safer pick.
Paul passes on this fight. He acknowledges Dawodu's chances but is not confident either way. He notes Evloev has been a cash cow but the style clash makes it a live underdog situation.
The MMA Guru picks Hakeem Dawodu, questioning Evloev's grappling offense and power. He notes Dawodu's reach advantage and technical striking, and criticizes Evloev's close fights with Enrique Barzola and Nick Lentz. He predicts Dawodu wins a 29-28 decision by taking the first two rounds and surviving the third.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 46 of 127 | 36% | 50 of 137 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 2 | 1 | 1:26 |
| Nik Lentz | 0 | 82 of 170 | 48% | 137 of 235 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 8 of 17 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:46 |
| Nik Lentz | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 20 of 50 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Nik Lentz | 0 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 34 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 19 of 67 | 28% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Nik Lentz | 0 | 47 of 100 | 47% | 66 of 122 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 46 of 127 | 36% | 24 of 100 | 15 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 120 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nik Lentz | 82 of 170 | 48% | 70 of 153 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 78 of 165 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 7 of 15 | 46% | 3 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nik Lentz | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 20 of 45 | 44% | 9 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Nik Lentz | 28 of 55 | 50% | 25 of 48 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 28 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 19 of 67 | 28% | 12 of 56 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Nik Lentz | 47 of 100 | 47% | 39 of 91 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 100 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Movsar Evloev by decision, citing his striking and wrestling advantages. He notes Evloev is 13-0 and younger, while Lentz has eye problems and is coming off a layoff. He warns about Lentz's guillotine but believes Evloev can keep the fight standing or control on the ground. He thinks Evloev is a fine parlay piece at -450.
Daniel Levi picks Movsar Evloev, calling him a top prospect with elite scrambling and improving boxing. He notes Evloev's impressive performance against Mike Grundy, where he survived a deep choke and dominated. Levi believes Evloev is better in every category and will win by decision, possibly 30-26 or 30-27.
Evloev is a huge prospect with championship potential, and he has been improving on a fight-to-fight basis. He has a solid striking game, good grappling, and has shown he can get back to his feet if taken down. Lentz is durable and has underrated power, but he is outmatched in terms of trajectory and skill. Evloev should be able to grind out a decision, though he may have trouble finishing Lentz. I'm a huge Evloev fan and think he wins this fight.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by 30-27 unanimous decision. He praises Evloev's takedown defense and reach, which will neutralize Nik Lentz's wrestling. He notes that Lentz is tough but will be out-struck on the feet. He does not see a finish due to Lentz's durability. He expects Evloev to keep the fight standing and pick Lentz apart for three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 79 of 150 | 52% | 96 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:48 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 25 of 80 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 25 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 35 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 36 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Mike Grundy | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 14 of 39 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 79 of 150 | 52% | 53 of 120 | 13 of 14 | 13 of 16 | 72 of 142 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 20 of 66 | 30% | 11 of 53 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 19 of 34 | 55% | 12 of 24 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 6 | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 3 of 16 | 18% | 0 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 31 of 55 | 56% | 20 of 44 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 49 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 6 of 16 | 37% | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 29 of 61 | 47% | 21 of 52 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Mike Grundy | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 27 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Evloev, impressed by his striking improvement and wrestling. He thinks Grundy is overhyped after the Nad Narimani KO and notes Grundy doesn't throw enough volume. He expects the wrestling to cancel out and Evloev to win by decision based on volume. He plans to bet if the line gets closer to -175.
Daniel picks Grundy for the upset, citing his size, power, and physicality. He believes Evloev may struggle with Grundy's strength and could tire in later rounds. He notes Evloev's volume but thinks Grundy's power and wrestling could be the difference. He thinks the line should be closer.
Evloev has superior chain wrestling and cardio, and his striking is improving. Grundy is a one-dimensional wrestler who may struggle to get takedowns against Evloev's wrestling. Evloev can outwork Grundy over three rounds, mixing in takedowns and striking. A late finish is possible but decision is more likely.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev due to his undefeated record, better competition, youth, and size advantage. He questions Mike Grundy's level of competition and notes that Grundy's win over Nad Narimani was not dominant and had an early stoppage. He predicts a close decision, 29-28, with Grundy stealing a round.
Lerone Murphy - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 0 | 86 of 189 | 45% | 124 of 234 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 3:54 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 89 of 239 | 37% | 89 of 239 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 14 of 49 | 28% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 17 of 37 | 45% | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 25 of 50 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 30 of 45 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 39 | 41% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Movsar Evloev | 0 | 12 of 36 | 33% | 40 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:12 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 12 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Movsar Evloev | 86 of 189 | 45% | 47 of 134 | 33 of 44 | 6 of 11 | 80 of 178 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 |
| Lerone Murphy | 89 of 239 | 37% | 45 of 175 | 24 of 38 | 20 of 26 | 89 of 238 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Movsar Evloev | 11 of 31 | 35% | 3 of 21 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 14 of 49 | 28% | 6 of 35 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Movsar Evloev | 17 of 37 | 45% | 9 of 24 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 24 of 57 | 42% | 12 of 41 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Movsar Evloev | 25 of 50 | 50% | 12 of 34 | 11 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 23 of 48 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Movsar Evloev | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 15 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 8 |
| Lerone Murphy | 16 of 39 | 41% | 6 of 24 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Movsar Evloev | 12 of 36 | 33% | 7 of 26 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 12 of 46 | 26% | 9 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.
Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.
Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.
Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.
Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.
Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.
James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.
The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.
Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aaron Pico | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 1 | 8 of 16 | 50% | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aaron Pico | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Aaron Pico | 13 of 29 | 44% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 8 of 16 | 50% | 4 of 9 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Aaron Pico | 13 of 29 | 44% | 7 of 23 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 |
Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.
Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.
The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.
Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 41 of 143 | 28% | 44 of 149 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 84 of 157 | 53% | 117 of 195 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 3 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 26 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 5 of 25 | 20% | 7 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 33 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 0 | 11 of 44 | 25% | 11 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 21 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Emmett | 41 of 143 | 28% | 29 of 124 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 8 | 40 of 133 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 3 |
| Lerone Murphy | 84 of 157 | 53% | 37 of 90 | 17 of 30 | 30 of 37 | 75 of 148 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josh Emmett | 10 of 28 | 35% | 6 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 10 of 24 | 41% | 5 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Josh Emmett | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 13 of 21 | 61% | 2 of 7 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Josh Emmett | 5 of 25 | 20% | 3 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Lerone Murphy | 21 of 36 | 58% | 11 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Josh Emmett | 13 of 38 | 34% | 9 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 22 of 41 | 53% | 9 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 9 of 12 | 22 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Josh Emmett | 11 of 44 | 25% | 10 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Lerone Murphy | 18 of 35 | 51% | 10 of 21 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 9 | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.
Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.
Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.
Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 78 of 133 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 46 of 106 | 43% | 52 of 116 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 2 | 4:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Dan Ige | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 36 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 12 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:43 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 16 of 26 | 61% | 24 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Dan Ige | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 8 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 52 of 100 | 52% | 36 of 77 | 12 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 80 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 4 |
| Dan Ige | 46 of 106 | 43% | 35 of 92 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 32 of 79 | 6 of 16 | 8 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 32 | 53% | 11 of 23 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Dan Ige | 32 of 60 | 53% | 27 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 19 of 39 | 5 of 11 | 8 of 10 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 19 of 42 | 45% | 12 of 31 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
| Dan Ige | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 16 of 26 | 61% | 13 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Dan Ige | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 12 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 1 |
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.
Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.
Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.
Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.
Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.
Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.
Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.
Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.
The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.
Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.
Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 79 of 242 | 32% | 79 of 242 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 220 of 364 | 60% | 259 of 410 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 5:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 34 of 62 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 17 of 44 | 38% | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 41 of 75 | 54% | 56 of 93 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 42 | 26% | 11 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 52 of 86 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 15 of 56 | 26% | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 59 of 93 | 63% | 65 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 11 of 47 | 23% | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Edson Barboza | 0 | 38 of 55 | 69% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 79 of 242 | 32% | 38 of 189 | 15 of 21 | 26 of 32 | 77 of 239 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 220 of 364 | 60% | 172 of 308 | 27 of 34 | 21 of 22 | 205 of 344 | 13 of 17 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 53 | 47% | 14 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 34 of 62 | 54% | 26 of 52 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 17 of 44 | 38% | 5 of 31 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 17 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 41 of 75 | 54% | 36 of 69 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 37 of 70 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 42 | 26% | 5 of 32 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 48 of 79 | 60% | 40 of 70 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 43 of 73 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Lerone Murphy | 15 of 56 | 26% | 7 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 59 of 93 | 63% | 42 of 75 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 10 | 58 of 91 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Lerone Murphy | 11 of 47 | 23% | 7 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Edson Barboza | 38 of 55 | 69% | 28 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.
Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.
Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.
Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.
The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 1 | 59 of 109 | 54% | 87 of 144 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 2 | 0 | 7:38 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 40 of 77 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 20 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 24 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:48 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 1 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 45 of 69 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Josh Culibao | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 59 of 109 | 54% | 37 of 81 | 15 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 24 of 61 | 12 of 14 | 23 of 34 |
| Josh Culibao | 23 of 59 | 38% | 16 of 48 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 53 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 18 of 37 | 48% | 8 of 25 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Culibao | 11 of 34 | 32% | 7 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 12 of 23 | 52% | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Josh Culibao | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 29 of 49 | 59% | 23 of 41 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 21 of 32 |
| Josh Culibao | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo favors Lerone Murphy's fluid striking and power, noting that Josh Culibao gets hit often. He mentions Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well, and the judges seem to favor him. He has a half-unit bet on Murphy at -145.
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy by decision. He notes this is a different matchup than Murphy's last fight against a grappler, as Culibao has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Murphy's striking and volume will be key, and he has hometown advantage in London. He believes even if it's close, the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in London.
Cody picks Murphy, noting his well-roundedness, accurate striking, and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's volume and home crowd advantage will secure a decision. He is surprised by the line movement and thinks Murphy is being disrespected.
Daniel leans toward Lerone Murphy, primarily due to potential hometown judging bias in London. He acknowledges Josh Culibao is a tough, scrappy fighter who finds ways to win, but thinks Murphy's volume and well-roundedness give him a slight edge. He notes that if the fight were in neutral territory, he'd view it as a pick'em, but in the UK, he gives Murphy a slight advantage. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.
James leans towards Josh Culibao as the underdog side. He thinks the fight is close and likely to go to a split decision. He notes that Culibao may have some advantages like takedowns but is open on the feet. He mentions that Murphy has power but Culibao has good recovery. James says whoever is the underdog is probably the side, and at +130, Culibao has value.
The host leans with Lerone Murphy, citing his physical advantages, explosiveness, speed, and power. He expects Murphy to land big shots and possibly knockdowns to thwart Culibao's pressure. He predicts a decision win but says he'll likely stay off the fight for betting.
Paul picks Murphy, citing his heart and ability to overcome adversity in his last fight. He thinks Murphy's jab and accuracy will win rounds, and that Culibao's level of opposition is low. He expects Murphy to chip away and win.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, initially considering Josh Culibao but reasoning that Murphy's poor performance against Gabriel Santos was due to short notice and injuries. He believes Murphy's composure and technical striking will outpoint Culibao, and notes the UK crowd advantage. The Guru also mentions Murphy's ability to find top position and his difficulty to finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 93 of 161 | 57% | 115 of 183 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 69 of 122 | 56% | 87 of 141 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 4:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 37 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 36 of 54 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 36 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 13 of 32 | 40% | 26 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 35 of 59 | 59% | 42 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Gabriel Santos | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 24 of 40 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 93 of 161 | 57% | 59 of 117 | 27 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 77 of 144 | 12 of 12 | 4 of 5 |
| Gabriel Santos | 69 of 122 | 56% | 32 of 73 | 24 of 34 | 13 of 15 | 55 of 105 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 33 of 58 | 56% | 18 of 39 | 12 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Gabriel Santos | 36 of 54 | 66% | 16 of 31 | 13 of 16 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 45 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 25 of 44 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
| Gabriel Santos | 13 of 32 | 40% | 8 of 22 | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Lerone Murphy | 35 of 59 | 59% | 28 of 48 | 5 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 30 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Santos | 20 of 36 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 17 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.
Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.
Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.
Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.
Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.
Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.
Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.
Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 11 of 14 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 4:05 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 1 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lerone Murphy | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lerone Murphy | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lerone Murphy | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Makwan Amirkhani | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.
Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.
Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.
Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.
Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.
Expert Picks (12)
Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.
Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.
Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.
Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.
Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.
Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.
Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.
James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.
The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.
Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.
The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.
Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.
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