UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026 · Featherweight · Completed
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Age 27
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 25
Height 5' 8"
Reach 69"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Luke Riley
5.56 SLpM
57.0% Str. Acc.
3.32 SApM
64.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
37.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michael Aswell
7.79 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
7.43 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
0.32 TD Avg
100.0% TD Acc.
57.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Luke Riley - Fight History
SCHED vs Kai Kamaka III
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

AJ picks Luke Riley to win a decision, emphasizing his sharp kickboxing, speed, and power advantage. He believes Kamaka is durable but lacks finishing power, and that Riley's cleaner striking will outpoint him. AJ notes that Riley is a prospect on the rise and that Kamaka's recent loss to Diego Brandao is a concern.

Riley by decision at +100; fight goes the distance
"I think Luke Riley is actually a lock against Kai Kamaka because of damage because Kai Kamaka is not really going to be able to out wrestle him."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

AJ feels Luke Riley is a confident pick, noting that Kamaka doesn't offer much damage threat. He thinks Riley will touch Kamaka's chin and possibly get a KO in the second or third round, or win by decision. He mentions Riley by KO round 2 at +850 and Riley by decision at +120.

Riley by KO +240; Riley by KO round 2 +850; Riley by KO round 3 +300; Riley by decision +120
"I feel like Luke Riley is just a shoe in for a confident pick. I don't know. Kamaka doesn't offer much of a damage threat. I feel like Kamaka doesn't really hit hard enough."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 29, 2026 (12 days before fight)
Luke Riley

AJ picks Luke Riley by decision, praising his precise straight punches and speed. He believes Riley's technical striking will outwork Kai Kamaka's pressure boxing, and that Kamaka's takedown threats won't be enough. He notes the odds are too wide but still favors Riley.

odds are too wide, proper odds would be -155 to +135
"I'll go Luke Riley. I think Kai Kamaka makes it tough. Maybe Luke Riley on the scorecards."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Hesitant picked Jul 1, 2026 (10 days before fight)
Luke Riley

AJ picks Luke Riley but emphasizes it will be a hard-fought win. He notes Kamaka is well-rounded, very experienced, and has fought in UFC, PFL, and Bellator. He warns that Riley's price tag is incredibly high and that betting on him is risky.

Riley's price tag is incredibly high
"Riley is fighting the most legit threat of his entire career. Taikamaka is well rounded and very experienced."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

AJ picks Luke Riley, noting he is a big favorite and should win. He acknowledges Kamaka is a tough journeyman but believes Riley will pull it off.

"Luke Riley should pull it off. Yeah, I'll pick him. I mean, he's a big ass favorite. That's the only thing. Minus 300. But yeah, he should win."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

AJ picks Luke Riley to beat Kai Kamaka, citing Riley's striking and Kamaka's lack of power. He believes Riley's clean boxing and leg kicks will overwhelm Kamaka, who is a journeyman. He sees a potential knockout or decision win for Riley.

"Luke Riley, Patty's boy... I think Luke Riley is about to beat Kai Kamaka up. And I think Luke Riley could be live for the highlight reel."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo picks Luke Riley because he is faster, cleaner, and more technical. He notes that Riley's takedown defense is okay and he stays busy. He worries about Cage Warriors signings when they face gritty opponents, but believes Riley should win straightforwardly. He thinks the matchup is favorable and Riley is the better striker.

"I'm picking Luke Riley. I think it's a very favorable matchup for him. I think he's faster. I think he's cleaner. I think he's more technical. He should absolutely win this fight."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo picks Luke Riley, citing his cleaner striking, speed, and range management. He is slightly nervous due to past English prospects failing in the UFC. He expects a decision win, not a finish, due to Kai's toughness and Luke's outside fighting style.

"I think Luke wins. And I'll say that with medium level to high level confidence."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady is confident Riley wins by decision. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and land bigger shots, but Kamaka is stupid tough and the fight likely goes the distance. He notes the -400 opener was wild, but still thinks Riley wins. He might look at a decision prop or fight goes the distance.

Riley by decision; fight goes the distance
"I think Luke Riley is going to be having the bigger moments, landing the bigger shots. I can see him hurting Kai Kamaka, dropping them, but I kind of think this goes 15. Kind of think it's Luke Riley by …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2026 (14 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley to win by decision. He highlights Riley's power and better defense, expecting him to land harder shots than Kamaka. He notes Kamaka's toughness and solid skills but believes Riley's power will be the difference. He acknowledges Kamaka might mix in takedowns but thinks Riley will get back up and out-strike him.

"I'm going Luke Riley here. ... I'm going to go Luke Riley to win this fight by a damagebased uh powerbased decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert picked Jul 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Big Brady passes on this fight, calling it a 'close but clear winner' for Luke Riley based on power and big moments, but expects a decision. He notes Kamaka is tough and his fights are often close, so he does not bet.

"Luke Riley, no bet."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, citing his superior striking and power. He notes Kamaka's tendency to go to decision and be in close fights. However, he is cautious about the price and expects a competitive fight, possibly a split decision.

Riley by decision; split decision prop at +550
"I have Luke Riley. ... I don't really want to put Luke all the way at the top because I feel like his fights are generally kind of competitive."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 30, 2026 (11 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel Levi picks Luke Riley to defeat Kai Kamaka, citing Riley's speed, athleticism, and power advantage. He acknowledges Kamaka's experience and well-rounded skills but believes Riley can do enough to win at least two rounds. Levi does not predict a knockout but expects a clear decision win.

"I'm going to pick Luke Riley to come out here and defeat Kai Kamaka and keep climbing the ladder."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Jacob picks Luke Riley but is not confident, having been anti-Riley in the past. He notes that Kai Kamaka is a tough veteran who doesn't get pushed around, and that Riley has been taken down and controlled before. However, he believes Riley is the better striker in a mostly striking matchup and should win, but warns that if Kamaka gets in his face early, it could get interesting.

"I'm picking Luke Riley because he is the better striker in a mostly striking matchup. But if Kai Kamaka comes in and just kind of gets in this guy's face early and works the clinch... we've seen weird stuff happen …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Lucrative James picks Luke Riley via decision, expecting a competitive striking fight. He believes Riley is the better boxer with more power and will defend takedowns after round one. He notes Kamaka's toughness but thinks Riley's offensive boxing will pull away in the later rounds.

Luke Riley by decision
"Luke Riley via Decision is my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The host acknowledges the fight will be closer than odds indicate and that an underdog shot on Kamaka could be warranted. However, he believes Riley will land more significant and eye-catching shots, leading to a decision win.

underdog shot on Kamaka could be warranted
"I believe it's going to be Riley who ends up landing the more significant shots, the more eye-catching shots, and the more optically pleasing shots to the judges leading to Riley winning this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 4, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The host picks Riley to win by decision, believing his striking will land the more eye-catching shots. However, he considers Kamaka a live underdog due to his experience and well-roundedness, and notes the -305 line is too steep.

Riley by decision, small shot on Kamaka at plus money
"My prediction is going to remain with Riley. ... I think Riley wins by decision, but it's going to be hard to pass up a small shot on Kamaka at this big plus money."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul picks Luke Riley by decision, noting Kamaka's durability and tendency to go to split decisions. He likes the split decision prop at +550. He acknowledges Riley's grappling deficiencies but believes his boxing will be enough.

Riley by decision; split decision prop at +550
"I like Riley Riley by decision and maybe I'll take have a little sniff of those uh of the split props."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by KO in the first or second round. He likes Riley's boxing advantage and believes Riley will catch a kick and counter. He notes that Kamaka is no joke but thinks Riley's power and timing will be the difference. He also mentions that Riley should not be a -290 favorite, more like -190 or -200.

KO in first or second round; odds too wide
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley. I like his boxing. I think he's going to be comfy out there. ... I think it's going to be a more Luke Riley style fight ... I think I'm going to go …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Riley 0 100 of 177 56% 113 of 192 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 61 of 180 33% 107 of 233 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Riley 0 33 of 56 58% 45 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 20 of 59 33% 54 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
2 Luke Riley 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 30 of 81 37% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Luke Riley 0 32 of 51 62% 33 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 11 of 40 27% 17 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Riley 100 of 177 56% 65 of 134 31 of 36 4 of 7 90 of 166 10 of 11 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 61 of 180 33% 48 of 158 13 of 21 0 of 1 58 of 169 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Riley 33 of 56 58% 22 of 42 10 of 11 1 of 3 30 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 20 of 59 33% 17 of 52 3 of 6 0 of 1 18 of 53 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luke Riley 35 of 70 50% 22 of 55 10 of 11 3 of 4 34 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 81 37% 22 of 69 8 of 12 0 of 0 29 of 77 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Luke Riley 32 of 51 62% 21 of 37 11 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 11 of 40 27% 9 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Aswell vs. Luke Riley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley

Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley

Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)

The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.

"I'm pretty confident in Luke here. And this is a co-main event for a reason. This is supposed to be a showcase fight. and I imagine it will for Luke."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.

Luke Riley by decision
"Give me Riley to win this fight. I think it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.

"I took Lucy as well, but I don't feel, you know, overly confident about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I look at Aswell and I think because of the volatility inherent to Luke Riley, he should be considered a real live dog. But a dog nonetheless."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.

"I think that Asuel can hold his own and make it competitive, but probably lose like a hard-fought decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.

"I think most likely Luke Riley lands the harder shots and scrapes by a close decision win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.

Luke Riley via decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Luke Riley in this fight. I think Luke Riley via a decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.

"Final prediction for that is going to be Luke Riley by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.

"Riley's the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.

TKO win, possibly body shot finish in round two
"I think Luke Riley will do well here... I could see a round two Luke Riley finish with body shots on Michael Jr."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I think for as well, the limitations for him become much more stark... Luke Riley comes out around later with the grad getting a little bit slower, a little bit more predictable, knows what to expect and just ice his …"
WIN vs Bogdan Grad
KO R2 0:30 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bogdan Grad 0 7 of 13 53% 17 of 24 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 1 14 of 23 60% 20 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bogdan Grad 0 6 of 9 66% 16 of 20 4 of 7 57% 0 0 3:55
Luke Riley 0 3 of 7 42% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bogdan Grad 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Luke Riley 1 11 of 16 68% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bogdan Grad 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 14 of 23 60% 11 of 19 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 11 1 of 1 9 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bogdan Grad 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 6
Luke Riley 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Bogdan Grad 1 of 4 25% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Luke Riley 11 of 16 68% 10 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 11
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bogdan Grad vs. Luke Riley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-275); Grad (+225)

Round 1
At long last, the prelims come to a head with a featherweight clash of neophytes with the promotion. Relatively speaking, the UFC veteran Grad (15-3, 1-1 UFC) with two appearances and a grainy Fight Finder photo—we will work on that—has finished 80% of his wins inside the distance. He meets surging Liverpudlian Riley (11-0, 0-0 UFC), an unbeaten teammate of potential upcoming title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Referee Marc Goddard cracks his knuckles ahead of this pairing, one that kicks off as the athletes opt to touch ‘em up.
Grad rushes right after Riley to start the round, spinning his way in but not committing to anything. As Riley circles away, Grad chases him with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Riley strafes to the side, and he stops as Grad charges him to get hold of a single. Riley grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and Grad pulls him away from it to ground him in the open cage away from the wall. It is a bit of stalemate once they hit the ground, with Riley acquitting himself well on the mat not taking much fire.
Riley eventually works to his feet, and Grad is on him like a cheap suit. Grad wraps up Riley from behind and seeks a mat return, but the Liverpool native scrapes Grad off his back and turns it to the wall. Grad rips punches to the body, and Riley responds with a few knees. Grad slashes with an elbow that he uses to commit to a single, and he drags the undefeated man to the floor. Grad lets Riley back up so he can get off another standing elbow. When Rile takes a second to reset, Grad bull-rushes him hunting for a single. Grad switches from one leg to the other in pursuit of the takedown, and Riley checks his oil and is dragged to his seat. “The Unleashed” unleashes a flurry of swinging punches with Riley on his seat, only stopping when the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grad

Round 2
Grad offers a fist bump and then follows with a head kick. They both wing hooks at one another, and they miss the mark wildly.
Riley winds up and blasts Grad with a left hand that sends him cinematically twirling down to the mat in a heap. Riley leaps on top of the grounded man and starts battering him with his fists, and he knocks Grad in and out of consciousness as he bludgeons the Austrian.
As Grad’s lights go out, Goddard jumps in to halt the fight. Grad tries to get up, but he cannot stand on his own power and Goddard saves him from crashing and burning. What a comeback for the still-undefeated man from Liverpool, with his team including the aforementioned Pimblett going bonkers in his corner for his triumphant UFC debut—by knockout, as is his custom.

The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.

"I'm going to lean Luke. He's just faster, cleaner striker."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.

third round knockout
"Give me Luke Riley to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.

"Riley for me. Riley by knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.

"I'm with you. I pretty much agree across the board."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.

sprinkle on Grad at +210
"I'll go uh Riley by TKO, but if I'm putting my money anywhere, it would be on the Grod side of things."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.

"I'm so tempted to take Bogdan grad, but that's one of the underdogs this week that I'm kind of on the fence about."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.

second or third-round TKO
"I'm going to go with Luke Riley getting this one done by third-round TKO, late in the second-round TKO, maybe."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.

Odds: Riley opened -150, now -250; Grad opened +130, now +210. Zane comments that any wider than that is probably too bad.
"I think I'll pick him here because I do really think Rod is like a, can you be in the UFC level of tests? And I think Riley is capable of passing that and being crafty and creative enough."
Michael Aswell - Fight History
CANCEL vs Gastón Bolaños
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Michael Aswell

AJ picks Michael Aswell to win, dismissing Bolaños as having poor MMA skills and no ground game. He expects Aswell to walk him down with high volume and cardio, likely winning by KO or decision. He has zero faith in Bolaños.

Aswell wins over 1.5 -225; Aswell wins round 3 +600; Aswell by decision +130; over 2.5 -150
"I think Aswell is about to walk down Bologanos and destroy him. I got no faith."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

AJ believes Aswell's relentless pressure and high volume will overwhelm Bolanos, who he sees as a kickboxer in MMA rather than an MMA fighter. He thinks Aswell will break Bolanos with volume and potentially finish him in the later rounds by KO.

Aswell by knockout at +170
"Michael Azwell's good... He's a relentless pressure fighter with insane output and great cardio."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Cody picks Aswell, citing his volume, tenacity, and pace. He notes Bolaños's age, slower speed, and mental check-out in recent fights. He believes Aswell's chin and output will overwhelm Bolaños, though he acknowledges the risk of a spinning elbow.

"Michael Aswell is really not a grappler, but neither is Gaston Balanos. Is minus 450 aswell considering his fight style a little bit risque? Yes, it is. But there's a lot of risque guys on this card, right?"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Aswell Jr. will land more effective damage and shut down Bolaños' flashy striking, winning by decision. The host notes the odds are steep at -400.

odds comment: -400 is steep
"I like me some Asuelu Jr. here, maybe not so much to the minus 400 extent, but I believe he'll be able to land a little bit more effective damage against Bolaños and really shut down the flashy striking game …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Paul picks Aswell confidently, citing his volume, durability, and Bolaños's decline. He notes Bolaños's lack of pace and power in recent fights, and believes Aswell's wrestling background (high school) may be enough to take him down. He sees Aswell as a good parlay piece.

"Mike Wall feels like one of the better parlay pieces this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2026 (fight day)
Michael Aswell

The MMA Guru picks Michael Aswell Jr. to win via decision. He believes Aswell is the better overall MMA fighter, younger, hungrier, and more active. He notes Aswell has excellent chin, high volume, and can mix in takedowns if needed. He thinks Bolanos' chin is waning and that Aswell will pressure through his weapons and have the better hands.

"give me Michael As well Jr. to win this fight via decision."
LOSS vs Luke Riley
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luke Riley 0 100 of 177 56% 113 of 192 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 61 of 180 33% 107 of 233 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luke Riley 0 33 of 56 58% 45 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 20 of 59 33% 54 of 95 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:05
2 Luke Riley 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 30 of 81 37% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:29
3 Luke Riley 0 32 of 51 62% 33 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 11 of 40 27% 17 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luke Riley 100 of 177 56% 65 of 134 31 of 36 4 of 7 90 of 166 10 of 11 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 61 of 180 33% 48 of 158 13 of 21 0 of 1 58 of 169 3 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luke Riley 33 of 56 58% 22 of 42 10 of 11 1 of 3 30 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 20 of 59 33% 17 of 52 3 of 6 0 of 1 18 of 53 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Luke Riley 35 of 70 50% 22 of 55 10 of 11 3 of 4 34 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 81 37% 22 of 69 8 of 12 0 of 0 29 of 77 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Luke Riley 32 of 51 62% 21 of 37 11 of 14 0 of 0 26 of 44 6 of 7 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 11 of 40 27% 9 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 11 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Aswell vs. Luke Riley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)

Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley

Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley

Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)

The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.

"I'm pretty confident in Luke here. And this is a co-main event for a reason. This is supposed to be a showcase fight. and I imagine it will for Luke."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.

Luke Riley by decision
"Give me Riley to win this fight. I think it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.

"I took Lucy as well, but I don't feel, you know, overly confident about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I look at Aswell and I think because of the volatility inherent to Luke Riley, he should be considered a real live dog. But a dog nonetheless."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.

"I think that Asuel can hold his own and make it competitive, but probably lose like a hard-fought decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.

"I think most likely Luke Riley lands the harder shots and scrapes by a close decision win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.

Luke Riley via decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Luke Riley in this fight. I think Luke Riley via a decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.

"Final prediction for that is going to be Luke Riley by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.

"Riley's the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.

TKO win, possibly body shot finish in round two
"I think Luke Riley will do well here... I could see a round two Luke Riley finish with body shots on Michael Jr."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I think for as well, the limitations for him become much more stark... Luke Riley comes out around later with the grad getting a little bit slower, a little bit more predictable, knows what to expect and just ice his …"
WIN vs Lucas Almeida
KO R1 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Oliveira vs. Gamrot · Oct 11, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lucas Almeida 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 2 30 of 54 55% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lucas Almeida 0 9 of 21 42% 9 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 2 30 of 54 55% 34 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lucas Almeida 9 of 21 42% 3 of 14 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 54 55% 30 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 1 19 of 37 1 of 1 10 of 16
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lucas Almeida 9 of 21 42% 3 of 14 1 of 1 5 of 6 9 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 30 of 54 55% 30 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 1 19 of 37 1 of 1 10 of 16
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lucas Almeida vs. Michael Aswell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)

Round 1
Capping off the prelims is a featherweight contest that has raised some serious eyebrows in the last 24 hours. Almeida (15-4, 2-3 UFC) appeared at the weigh-ins with a right hand the size of a balloon, but the CABMMA—the Brazilian Commission—did not seem to deem that worthy of note. The betting line for Aswell (10-3, 0-1 UFC) has skyrocketed, and the optics do not look great. Referee Jason Herzog will serve as the sole arbiter of this bout, and the athletes do opt to touch gloves.
Aswell surges out of his corner ready to trade, and he walks down the Brazilian and slugs him in the face. The shorter Aswell gets inside early, setting up a few big right hands. Almeida reels from getting tagged from the overhand rights, and his eye is showing a little swelling already. Almeida backs off putting the cage behind him, and he leans back to take the sting out of Aswell’s punches but is taking punishment. Aswell knocks Almeida to his seat with a massive right hand, and Almeida climbs back up right into the left hand of his opponent. The Brazilian tries to throw back when he can, but Aswell is beating him to the punch and hurting him practically every time he touches him.
Aswell drives down a few hammerfists, and he switches to straight-up punches and an elbow or two. Herzog asks Almeida to fight back, but he is done like dinner after multiple knockdowns and a lot of head trauma.
With Aswell seated in full mount raining down punishment, Herzog has no choice but to step in and stop the “Beatdown of the Year” candidate. Not only did it appear that Almeida could not swing his right hand, but he rarely used it to defend himself. Brazilians are no longer undefeated tonight, but Almeida have been the most vulnerable of the bunch on the card given his apparent condition.

The Official Result
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida R1 1:42 via TKO (Punches and Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.

"Asbell's pressure is insane... Lucas will likely end up looking for big shots and while he's trying to hum a big shot, Michael Asbell is going to hit him three times."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.

"I'll say Almeida wins a decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.

split decision (+500)
"I originally took u Lucas Almeida. I think I'm reeling back from that and I'm switching the pick over to Michael Oswwell."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.

Aswell by decision
"I think we'll see Asbell dictate this pace, keep Almeida on the back foot, and just jab and cross his way to another decision victory here."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 8, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Michael Aswell

Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.

split decision (+500)
"I'll side with Aswell as the pick just based on the fact that yeah, one 120 130 140 150 strikes are in his wheelhouse."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lucas Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.

"I'm going to go with Lucas Almeida getting this one done by finish or by 2928 decision over Michael as well as an underdog."
LOSS vs Bolaji Oki
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blanchfield vs. Barber · May 31, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bolaji Oki 0 136 of 303 44% 136 of 303 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 118 of 309 38% 118 of 309 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bolaji Oki 0 36 of 92 39% 36 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 24 of 84 28% 24 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bolaji Oki 0 54 of 108 50% 54 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 42 of 100 42% 42 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bolaji Oki 0 46 of 103 44% 46 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michael Aswell 0 52 of 125 41% 52 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bolaji Oki 136 of 303 44% 92 of 243 36 of 48 8 of 12 135 of 300 1 of 3 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 118 of 309 38% 92 of 270 19 of 29 7 of 10 117 of 305 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bolaji Oki 36 of 92 39% 23 of 75 9 of 11 4 of 6 36 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 24 of 84 28% 16 of 72 3 of 4 5 of 8 24 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bolaji Oki 54 of 108 50% 31 of 77 19 of 25 4 of 6 53 of 106 1 of 2 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 42 of 100 42% 35 of 87 6 of 12 1 of 1 42 of 98 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Bolaji Oki 46 of 103 44% 38 of 91 8 of 12 0 of 0 46 of 102 0 of 1 0 of 0
Michael Aswell 52 of 125 41% 41 of 111 10 of 13 1 of 1 51 of 123 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michael Aswell vs. Bolaji Oki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oki (-375), Aswell (+300)

Round 1
Ever the internationally focused organization, where else can one find a tried-and-true Texan throwing down with a “Zulu Warrior” from Belgium? Right here in the Octagon is where it’s at, as “The Texas Kid” Aswell (10-2, 0-0 UFC) has made it to the promotion after riding the wave of Fury FC for a few years. He meets Oki (9-2, 1-1 UFC), who would like nothing more than to punch a hole in Aswell’s chest a la Ray Longo. The third man in the cage for this lightweight affair will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks the two in as they bump fists. It’s off to the races for these two, who quickly engage quickly with stern right hands. Oki sinks down a heavy low kick, and the two crash together. Oki backs off and pushes out a few jabs, and he swings a leg kick that makes him topple over. Aswell cannot reach him before he recovers, but he does walk Oki down and try to nail him with a right hand. Instead, it is Oki who clubs Aswell, with a nasty right hand followed by a left to the body. Oki does this again, walking through Aswell’s hammers that are swinging at the same time. Aswell calms himself down to toss out a few calf kicks, and he dodges a hook to clip Oki with a right hand. Oki shows no ill effects, and Aswell walks him down with his jab outstretched. Oki drills Aswell on the temple with a straight right hand, and Aswell busts him in the chops and may have hurt him for a second as Oki retreats. It does not take long for Oki to get back to lobbing bombs, and he mixes in a few body shots but gets popped on the way out. These two are trading effectively and flush on one another, and their chins are holding up at the three-minute mark but the pace may not be maintainable as they continue. The right hand from Oki splits a cut on the corner of Aswell’s left eyebrow, with the blood leaking into his eye slightly but not hampering his sight. Aswell still nails Oki with heavy hands, setting them up with jabs and knocking him back with a pair of rights. Aswell connects with another right, walks through a jab and fires off a right hook. Oki snaps his head back with a long jab, and his left hook to the belly finds its home a couple times. Both lightweights land hard at the end of the round, with Aswell knocking Oki back a step and possibly stealing the round with one concussive blow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aswell

Round 2
A glove touch prompts the lightweights to get right in front of one another and punch. Oki backs him off with a step-in knee and tries to chain a high kick into it, but it is Aswell who stands firm and punches him square in the stomach. Oki sits down on big punches, but Aswell is able to roll with them just enough to not get his chin checked. Oki times another knee when Aswell steps in, and he slips back and tags Aswell as Aswell rushes at him. Oki measures several more body shots, and Aswell busts him in the chops with a right hand. Aswell fires off another right hook that snaps the head to the side, and Oki sticks his tongue out and puts three fists on Aswell’s face in rapid succession. Aswell lands a few punches, and Oki spins with a back kick to the belly. Aswell connects with two punches and is out of the way before getting countered, and he steps in and bops Oki in the chops with a left. Oki knocks him back thanks to his power punches, and he works a left to the ribs and a right up top. They both land at the same time, and Oki dodges an elbow to send Aswell retreating. Oki chains a knee into a right hand, and Aswell is tough as nails but is standing still when Oki puts hands on him. Aswell goes for two, and Oki’s lead jab and check hook to the damage. Oki knees his foe again, and he trips as he swings for the fences and recovers quickly. Oki takes a low kick on the calf and drills Aswell with a short combo, forcing the Texan to ricochet off the wall. Oki’s right hand further pounds Aswell on the jaw, and he jumps forward with a knee that flies past his foe on the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki

Round 3
One final glove touch kicks off the last round, and Oki starts off quickly with a jab and a chin-shaking right hand. Aswell displays near otherworldly durability as Oki is not taking it easy on him, but it is Oki in the driver’s seat. The power is substantially in his favor, and he has Aswell reacting to his strikes while he largely shrugs off the ones coming back his way. Even with Aswell’s likely higher volume, the right and left hooks from Oki are far more impactful. A few such hooks land on the chin, and Oki eats a counter, pats himself on the head to ask Aswell to bring it on and throws back. Oki leads off with his left hook, and three punches of his back Aswell up to the fence. Oki continue to chase after his opponent as Aswell is in retreat mode now, and he keeps his guard high to let Aswell’s swings bounce off him. Oki takes a hard right hand, and when Aswell doubles up his jab, Oki smiles at him and asks for more. Aswell obliges, but not before Oki clips him again hard. The strike totals are sky-high in this fight and the numbers are likely quite close, but Oki has figured out how to put volume together while still hitting Aswell harder than he gets hit back. Oki marks up Aswell’s left eye with his power right hand, and Aswell is looking for answers as his mighty swings seem to have no effect on the Belgian. Oki walks into and through a right hand, and he winds up with three hearty swings that bounce Aswell’s head around. Oki is determined to swing it out to the bell, and he does just that.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)

The Official Result
Bolaji Oki def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 30, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Aswell is a short-notice replacement and a smaller fighter, and that Oki's physicality should be too much. He expects the odds to be heavily in Oki's favor.

"Yeah, I agree. And he's also placement and he's a five foot eight featherweight fighting up a division on short notice too. So yeah, you kind of just have to pick Bellagio. Okey."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Matt picks Bolaji Oki to win by decision. He highlights Oki's power punching and ability to maintain his gas tank over three rounds, while Aswell is a basic pressure fighter moving up a weight class on short notice. He expects Oki to land the more eye-catching shots and win on the scorecards, noting Aswell's durability but lack of power.

over 2.5 rounds -140 to -150 (intriguing)
"I'm going to go with Oki by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 30, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Bolaji Oki

Zane picks Oki because he is a solid athlete and Aswell is a short-notice replacement who is a 5'8" featherweight moving up, lacking the tools to diminish Oki's physical dominance. He notes that Aswell is scrappy but not a great athlete, and Oki's game, while not deep, should be enough to win.

"You kind of just have to pick Bellagio. Okey."
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.

"I'm pretty confident in Luke here. And this is a co-main event for a reason. This is supposed to be a showcase fight. and I imagine it will for Luke."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.

Luke Riley by decision
"Give me Riley to win this fight. I think it's by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.

"I took Lucy as well, but I don't feel, you know, overly confident about it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I look at Aswell and I think because of the volatility inherent to Luke Riley, he should be considered a real live dog. But a dog nonetheless."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.

"I think that Asuel can hold his own and make it competitive, but probably lose like a hard-fought decision."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.

"I think most likely Luke Riley lands the harder shots and scrapes by a close decision win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Luke Riley

James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.

Luke Riley via decision, over 2.5 rounds
"I'm going to pick Luke Riley in this fight. I think Luke Riley via a decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.

"Final prediction for that is going to be Luke Riley by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.

"Riley's the pick for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.

TKO win, possibly body shot finish in round two
"I think Luke Riley will do well here... I could see a round two Luke Riley finish with body shots on Michael Jr."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Luke Riley

Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.

Riley opened at -175, currently -235; Aswell opened at +150, currently +200.
"I think for as well, the limitations for him become much more stark... Luke Riley comes out around later with the grad getting a little bit slower, a little bit more predictable, knows what to expect and just ice his grad."