Career Averages - Luke Riley
Career Averages - Michael Aswell
Luke Riley - Fight History
AJ picks Luke Riley to win a decision, emphasizing his sharp kickboxing, speed, and power advantage. He believes Kamaka is durable but lacks finishing power, and that Riley's cleaner striking will outpoint him. AJ notes that Riley is a prospect on the rise and that Kamaka's recent loss to Diego Brandao is a concern.
AJ feels Luke Riley is a confident pick, noting that Kamaka doesn't offer much damage threat. He thinks Riley will touch Kamaka's chin and possibly get a KO in the second or third round, or win by decision. He mentions Riley by KO round 2 at +850 and Riley by decision at +120.
AJ picks Luke Riley by decision, praising his precise straight punches and speed. He believes Riley's technical striking will outwork Kai Kamaka's pressure boxing, and that Kamaka's takedown threats won't be enough. He notes the odds are too wide but still favors Riley.
AJ picks Luke Riley but emphasizes it will be a hard-fought win. He notes Kamaka is well-rounded, very experienced, and has fought in UFC, PFL, and Bellator. He warns that Riley's price tag is incredibly high and that betting on him is risky.
AJ picks Luke Riley, noting he is a big favorite and should win. He acknowledges Kamaka is a tough journeyman but believes Riley will pull it off.
AJ picks Luke Riley to beat Kai Kamaka, citing Riley's striking and Kamaka's lack of power. He believes Riley's clean boxing and leg kicks will overwhelm Kamaka, who is a journeyman. He sees a potential knockout or decision win for Riley.
Angelo picks Luke Riley because he is faster, cleaner, and more technical. He notes that Riley's takedown defense is okay and he stays busy. He worries about Cage Warriors signings when they face gritty opponents, but believes Riley should win straightforwardly. He thinks the matchup is favorable and Riley is the better striker.
Angelo picks Luke Riley, citing his cleaner striking, speed, and range management. He is slightly nervous due to past English prospects failing in the UFC. He expects a decision win, not a finish, due to Kai's toughness and Luke's outside fighting style.
Big Brady is confident Riley wins by decision. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and land bigger shots, but Kamaka is stupid tough and the fight likely goes the distance. He notes the -400 opener was wild, but still thinks Riley wins. He might look at a decision prop or fight goes the distance.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley to win by decision. He highlights Riley's power and better defense, expecting him to land harder shots than Kamaka. He notes Kamaka's toughness and solid skills but believes Riley's power will be the difference. He acknowledges Kamaka might mix in takedowns but thinks Riley will get back up and out-strike him.
Big Brady passes on this fight, calling it a 'close but clear winner' for Luke Riley based on power and big moments, but expects a decision. He notes Kamaka is tough and his fights are often close, so he does not bet.
Cody picks Luke Riley, citing his superior striking and power. He notes Kamaka's tendency to go to decision and be in close fights. However, he is cautious about the price and expects a competitive fight, possibly a split decision.
Daniel Levi picks Luke Riley to defeat Kai Kamaka, citing Riley's speed, athleticism, and power advantage. He acknowledges Kamaka's experience and well-rounded skills but believes Riley can do enough to win at least two rounds. Levi does not predict a knockout but expects a clear decision win.
Jacob picks Luke Riley but is not confident, having been anti-Riley in the past. He notes that Kai Kamaka is a tough veteran who doesn't get pushed around, and that Riley has been taken down and controlled before. However, he believes Riley is the better striker in a mostly striking matchup and should win, but warns that if Kamaka gets in his face early, it could get interesting.
Lucrative James picks Luke Riley via decision, expecting a competitive striking fight. He believes Riley is the better boxer with more power and will defend takedowns after round one. He notes Kamaka's toughness but thinks Riley's offensive boxing will pull away in the later rounds.
The host acknowledges the fight will be closer than odds indicate and that an underdog shot on Kamaka could be warranted. However, he believes Riley will land more significant and eye-catching shots, leading to a decision win.
The host picks Riley to win by decision, believing his striking will land the more eye-catching shots. However, he considers Kamaka a live underdog due to his experience and well-roundedness, and notes the -305 line is too steep.
Paul picks Luke Riley by decision, noting Kamaka's durability and tendency to go to split decisions. He likes the split decision prop at +550. He acknowledges Riley's grappling deficiencies but believes his boxing will be enough.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by KO in the first or second round. He likes Riley's boxing advantage and believes Riley will catch a kick and counter. He notes that Kamaka is no joke but thinks Riley's power and timing will be the difference. He also mentions that Riley should not be a -290 favorite, more like -190 or -200.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 0 | 100 of 177 | 56% | 113 of 192 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 61 of 180 | 33% | 107 of 233 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 45 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 54 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 0 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 33 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 100 of 177 | 56% | 65 of 134 | 31 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 90 of 166 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 61 of 180 | 33% | 48 of 158 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 58 of 169 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 33 of 56 | 58% | 22 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 30 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 20 of 59 | 33% | 17 of 52 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 53 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 35 of 70 | 50% | 22 of 55 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 81 | 37% | 22 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 32 of 51 | 62% | 21 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 11 of 40 | 27% | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.
Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.
Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.
Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.
James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.
The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.
Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.
Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 17 of 24 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Luke Riley | 1 | 14 of 23 | 60% | 20 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 16 of 20 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:55 |
| Luke Riley | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luke Riley | 1 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bogdan Grad | 7 of 13 | 53% | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Luke Riley | 14 of 23 | 60% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bogdan Grad | 6 of 9 | 66% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Luke Riley | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bogdan Grad | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luke Riley | 11 of 16 | 68% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 11 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-275); Grad (+225)
Round 1
At long last, the prelims come to a head with a featherweight clash of neophytes with the promotion. Relatively speaking, the UFC veteran Grad (15-3, 1-1 UFC) with two appearances and a grainy Fight Finder photo—we will work on that—has finished 80% of his wins inside the distance. He meets surging Liverpudlian Riley (11-0, 0-0 UFC), an unbeaten teammate of potential upcoming title challenger Paddy Pimblett. Referee Marc Goddard cracks his knuckles ahead of this pairing, one that kicks off as the athletes opt to touch ‘em up.
Grad rushes right after Riley to start the round, spinning his way in but not committing to anything. As Riley circles away, Grad chases him with a spinning wheel kick that misses the mark. Riley strafes to the side, and he stops as Grad charges him to get hold of a single. Riley grabs the fence to stay on his feet, and Grad pulls him away from it to ground him in the open cage away from the wall. It is a bit of stalemate once they hit the ground, with Riley acquitting himself well on the mat not taking much fire.
Riley eventually works to his feet, and Grad is on him like a cheap suit. Grad wraps up Riley from behind and seeks a mat return, but the Liverpool native scrapes Grad off his back and turns it to the wall. Grad rips punches to the body, and Riley responds with a few knees. Grad slashes with an elbow that he uses to commit to a single, and he drags the undefeated man to the floor. Grad lets Riley back up so he can get off another standing elbow. When Rile takes a second to reset, Grad bull-rushes him hunting for a single. Grad switches from one leg to the other in pursuit of the takedown, and Riley checks his oil and is dragged to his seat. “The Unleashed” unleashes a flurry of swinging punches with Riley on his seat, only stopping when the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Grad
Round 2
Grad offers a fist bump and then follows with a head kick. They both wing hooks at one another, and they miss the mark wildly.
Riley winds up and blasts Grad with a left hand that sends him cinematically twirling down to the mat in a heap. Riley leaps on top of the grounded man and starts battering him with his fists, and he knocks Grad in and out of consciousness as he bludgeons the Austrian.
As Grad’s lights go out, Goddard jumps in to halt the fight. Grad tries to get up, but he cannot stand on his own power and Goddard saves him from crashing and burning. What a comeback for the still-undefeated man from Liverpool, with his team including the aforementioned Pimblett going bonkers in his corner for his triumphant UFC debut—by knockout, as is his custom.
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Bogdan Grad R2 0:30 via KO (Punches)
Angelo leans Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, citing Riley's speed and cleaner striking. He notes Grad has a wrestling advantage but Riley has shown good takedown defense in every fight. Angelo warns that Cage Warriors prospects can be overhyped, so he's cautious but picks Riley due to speed being the biggest factor.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley by third-round knockout, impressed by his power and striking. He notes Grad's hittability and questionable chin, and expects Riley to find the chin as Grad slows down. He acknowledges Grad's grappling path but doesn't think he'll fight smart.
Cody picks Luke Riley, believing his volume and cardio will overwhelm Grad. He notes that Grad has poor takedown defense and tends to lose position. Cody thinks Riley can work his way back into the fight if taken down and finish via knockout.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Riley. He notes that Riley is speedy, crafty, and scrappy, and if Grad shows any weakness on the feet or fails to get takedowns, Riley will build a brutal assault. He mentions Riley's age (26) and potential to develop physicality. He also notes that Riley got hurt in a previous fight but showed inexperience.
Riley is a nasty striker with good takedown defense, but the odds are too wide. Grad has grappling opportunities and could win by submission or decision. Riley by TKO is the prediction, but a sprinkle on Grad is considered.
Paul leans towards Luke Riley but is tempted by Bogdan Grad as an underdog. He notes Riley's all-action style and gas tank, but acknowledges Grad's wrestling could be a problem. Paul ultimately sides with Riley due to his volume and finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley over Bogdan Grad, believing Riley's size and striking will be too much. He notes Grad's struggles in the clinch against Naimov. He expects Riley to rip body shots and finish by TKO in the second or third round, though he acknowledges Grad is dangerous early.
Zane picks Riley but acknowledges it's a fight he might lose. He notes that Grad is a high-motor, experienced fighter who can test Riley physically. He thinks Riley is faster, more precise, and smarter on the feet, and that Grad is slow and awkward with bad shot selection. He worries about Riley's physicality and takedown defense but believes Riley can fight his way back if not finished early.
Michael Aswell - Fight History
AJ picks Michael Aswell to win, dismissing Bolaños as having poor MMA skills and no ground game. He expects Aswell to walk him down with high volume and cardio, likely winning by KO or decision. He has zero faith in Bolaños.
AJ believes Aswell's relentless pressure and high volume will overwhelm Bolanos, who he sees as a kickboxer in MMA rather than an MMA fighter. He thinks Aswell will break Bolanos with volume and potentially finish him in the later rounds by KO.
Cody picks Aswell, citing his volume, tenacity, and pace. He notes Bolaños's age, slower speed, and mental check-out in recent fights. He believes Aswell's chin and output will overwhelm Bolaños, though he acknowledges the risk of a spinning elbow.
Aswell Jr. will land more effective damage and shut down Bolaños' flashy striking, winning by decision. The host notes the odds are steep at -400.
Paul picks Aswell confidently, citing his volume, durability, and Bolaños's decline. He notes Bolaños's lack of pace and power in recent fights, and believes Aswell's wrestling background (high school) may be enough to take him down. He sees Aswell as a good parlay piece.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Aswell Jr. to win via decision. He believes Aswell is the better overall MMA fighter, younger, hungrier, and more active. He notes Aswell has excellent chin, high volume, and can mix in takedowns if needed. He thinks Bolanos' chin is waning and that Aswell will pressure through his weapons and have the better hands.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 0 | 100 of 177 | 56% | 113 of 192 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 61 of 180 | 33% | 107 of 233 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 0 | 33 of 56 | 58% | 45 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 20 of 59 | 33% | 54 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:05 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 0 | 35 of 70 | 50% | 35 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 30 of 81 | 37% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 0 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 33 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 17 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luke Riley | 100 of 177 | 56% | 65 of 134 | 31 of 36 | 4 of 7 | 90 of 166 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 61 of 180 | 33% | 48 of 158 | 13 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 58 of 169 | 3 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Luke Riley | 33 of 56 | 58% | 22 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 1 of 3 | 30 of 53 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 20 of 59 | 33% | 17 of 52 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 18 of 53 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Luke Riley | 35 of 70 | 50% | 22 of 55 | 10 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 34 of 69 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 81 | 37% | 22 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 77 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Luke Riley | 32 of 51 | 62% | 21 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 11 of 40 | 27% | 9 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Riley (-300); Aswell (+250)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Aswell hurries to the center of the cage. Riley pumps out his jab. Riley rips the body but Aswell counters with a hard right. Aswell closes the distance behind a flurry of punches. Now in the clinch, Aswell lands short shots to the body. Aswell separates and they’re back at range. Aswell forces the clinch once again, and he goes back to landing short shots in close. Aswell lands a right on the break. Aswell lands a left hook in an exchange. They’re trading now, and both men land. Aswell follows a 1-2 into the clinch. They disengage and a right connects for Aswell. Riley lands a 1-2 to put Aswell on his heels. Another combination lands for Riley, but Aswell rolls with it. Aswell with a front kick. Riley with a left hook followed by a right hand. Another right lands for Riley, who seems to be getting comfortable. Riley catches Aswell with another right and then he tags his foe with a left hook. Aswell with a jab and then just misses a huge right. Aswell follows a low kick with a jab to the body. Riley pressures up until the horn, landing another right in the process.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 2
Riley kicks the lead leg. Riley lands a jab and avoids an Aswell combination. A laser right snaps Aswell’s head back. The Brit jabs the body, lands a right and then avoids Aswell’s counter. Another jab to the body for Riley, who follows with a combination. Aswell grabs a body lock after Riley slips to the floor. He’s attached to Riley’s back, landing knees to the thighs. They separate and are back at range. Aswell pressures and lands a jab. Riley continues to target the body with a jab. Riley has the more crisp strikes, and he seems to be landing more effectively in exchanges. A lead hook lands for Riley and then he goes body-head with a combo. Aswell moves in and lands a flurry. They trade in the pocket and both men land during an exchange. A couple solid rights land for Aswell as Riley forces the issue. Riley lands to the body, then a left hook to the head shortly thereafter. They continue to exchange but Riley puts his stamp on the round with one more solid right.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley
Round 3
Riley sticks his jab. Aswell attacks with a combination but Riley moves out of danger. Aswell gets in on a body lock against the fence. Aswell with short punches to the body as the Brit defends. Aswell switches to a single leg. Riley is defending well with his back to the cage. Aswell lets it go and they’re back at range. Aswell closes the distance behind punches but can’t maintain the clinch for long. A crisp right lands for Riley. Riley lands a jab to the body and a right hook to the head. The same combination lands a few seconds later for Riley. A right to the body lands with impact for Riley. Aswell grabs a front head lock and snaps Riley down. Riley is able to escape in short order and rips the body. Riley tags Aswell during an exchange. Aswell is undeterred and he lands some big shots of his own before clinching. He pushes Riley into the fence. Riley reverses and lands a flurry on the break. Riley follows a front kick with a right hand-left hook combo. Riley with another right to the body. Aswell is running out of time. Riley avoids a spinning attack from Aswell. Aswell fires a right hook. Riley lands once more before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Riley (30-27 Riley)
The Official Result
Luke Riley def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.
Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.
Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.
Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.
James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.
The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.
Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.
Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 2 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 34 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Almeida | 9 of 21 | 42% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 30 of 54 | 55% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 19 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aswell (-150); Almeida (+125)
Round 1
Capping off the prelims is a featherweight contest that has raised some serious eyebrows in the last 24 hours. Almeida (15-4, 2-3 UFC) appeared at the weigh-ins with a right hand the size of a balloon, but the CABMMA—the Brazilian Commission—did not seem to deem that worthy of note. The betting line for Aswell (10-3, 0-1 UFC) has skyrocketed, and the optics do not look great. Referee Jason Herzog will serve as the sole arbiter of this bout, and the athletes do opt to touch gloves.
Aswell surges out of his corner ready to trade, and he walks down the Brazilian and slugs him in the face. The shorter Aswell gets inside early, setting up a few big right hands. Almeida reels from getting tagged from the overhand rights, and his eye is showing a little swelling already. Almeida backs off putting the cage behind him, and he leans back to take the sting out of Aswell’s punches but is taking punishment. Aswell knocks Almeida to his seat with a massive right hand, and Almeida climbs back up right into the left hand of his opponent. The Brazilian tries to throw back when he can, but Aswell is beating him to the punch and hurting him practically every time he touches him.
Aswell drives down a few hammerfists, and he switches to straight-up punches and an elbow or two. Herzog asks Almeida to fight back, but he is done like dinner after multiple knockdowns and a lot of head trauma.
With Aswell seated in full mount raining down punishment, Herzog has no choice but to step in and stop the “Beatdown of the Year” candidate. Not only did it appear that Almeida could not swing his right hand, but he rarely used it to defend himself. Brazilians are no longer undefeated tonight, but Almeida have been the most vulnerable of the bunch on the card given his apparent condition.
The Official Result
Michael Aswell def. Lucas Almeida R1 1:42 via TKO (Punches and Elbow)
Angelo picks Michael Aswell, citing his relentless pressure and high volume of strikes. He believes Aswell's pressure will overwhelm Lucas, who will be looking for big shots and getting hit multiple times in return. He notes Aswell's insane 9.1 significant strikes landed per minute.
Big Brady picks Lucas Almeida to win a decision, citing Almeida's power advantage and the fight being in Brazil. He notes Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that Almeida's big leg kicks and power shots will sway the judges. He expects a close fight going to the scorecards, with crowd reactions favoring Almeida.
Cody originally took Almeida but switched to Aswell, citing age and weight cut advantages. He notes Aswell's high volume and Almeida's lack of wrestling, but expects a close fight that could be influenced by Brazilian judging. He recommends the split decision prop.
Manpreet picks Aswell, citing Almeida's downward trajectory and Aswell's basic but effective striking and forward pressure. He believes Aswell will walk Almeida down, land his jab and cross, and win a decision. He notes Aswell's durability and full training camp at his natural weight class.
Paul picks Aswell, citing his youth, volume striking, and natural weight class. He notes Almeida's poor takedown defense and weight cut issues, but expects a close fight that could go to split decision. He suggests a split decision prop.
The MMA Guru picks Lucas Almeida over Michael Aswell, believing the odds are incorrect. He notes Aswell couldn't finish Bellagio and has lost recently, while Almeida had a close fight with Danny Silva. He predicts Almeida wins by finish or decision as an underdog.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolaji Oki | 0 | 136 of 303 | 44% | 136 of 303 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 118 of 309 | 38% | 118 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolaji Oki | 0 | 36 of 92 | 39% | 36 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 24 of 84 | 28% | 24 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bolaji Oki | 0 | 54 of 108 | 50% | 54 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 42 of 100 | 42% | 42 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bolaji Oki | 0 | 46 of 103 | 44% | 46 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michael Aswell | 0 | 52 of 125 | 41% | 52 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bolaji Oki | 136 of 303 | 44% | 92 of 243 | 36 of 48 | 8 of 12 | 135 of 300 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 118 of 309 | 38% | 92 of 270 | 19 of 29 | 7 of 10 | 117 of 305 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bolaji Oki | 36 of 92 | 39% | 23 of 75 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 36 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 24 of 84 | 28% | 16 of 72 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 24 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bolaji Oki | 54 of 108 | 50% | 31 of 77 | 19 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 53 of 106 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 42 of 100 | 42% | 35 of 87 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 98 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bolaji Oki | 46 of 103 | 44% | 38 of 91 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Michael Aswell | 52 of 125 | 41% | 41 of 111 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 51 of 123 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Oki (-375), Aswell (+300)
Round 1
Ever the internationally focused organization, where else can one find a tried-and-true Texan throwing down with a “Zulu Warrior” from Belgium? Right here in the Octagon is where it’s at, as “The Texas Kid” Aswell (10-2, 0-0 UFC) has made it to the promotion after riding the wave of Fury FC for a few years. He meets Oki (9-2, 1-1 UFC), who would like nothing more than to punch a hole in Aswell’s chest a la Ray Longo. The third man in the cage for this lightweight affair will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks the two in as they bump fists. It’s off to the races for these two, who quickly engage quickly with stern right hands. Oki sinks down a heavy low kick, and the two crash together. Oki backs off and pushes out a few jabs, and he swings a leg kick that makes him topple over. Aswell cannot reach him before he recovers, but he does walk Oki down and try to nail him with a right hand. Instead, it is Oki who clubs Aswell, with a nasty right hand followed by a left to the body. Oki does this again, walking through Aswell’s hammers that are swinging at the same time. Aswell calms himself down to toss out a few calf kicks, and he dodges a hook to clip Oki with a right hand. Oki shows no ill effects, and Aswell walks him down with his jab outstretched. Oki drills Aswell on the temple with a straight right hand, and Aswell busts him in the chops and may have hurt him for a second as Oki retreats. It does not take long for Oki to get back to lobbing bombs, and he mixes in a few body shots but gets popped on the way out. These two are trading effectively and flush on one another, and their chins are holding up at the three-minute mark but the pace may not be maintainable as they continue. The right hand from Oki splits a cut on the corner of Aswell’s left eyebrow, with the blood leaking into his eye slightly but not hampering his sight. Aswell still nails Oki with heavy hands, setting them up with jabs and knocking him back with a pair of rights. Aswell connects with another right, walks through a jab and fires off a right hook. Oki snaps his head back with a long jab, and his left hook to the belly finds its home a couple times. Both lightweights land hard at the end of the round, with Aswell knocking Oki back a step and possibly stealing the round with one concussive blow.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aswell
Round 2
A glove touch prompts the lightweights to get right in front of one another and punch. Oki backs him off with a step-in knee and tries to chain a high kick into it, but it is Aswell who stands firm and punches him square in the stomach. Oki sits down on big punches, but Aswell is able to roll with them just enough to not get his chin checked. Oki times another knee when Aswell steps in, and he slips back and tags Aswell as Aswell rushes at him. Oki measures several more body shots, and Aswell busts him in the chops with a right hand. Aswell fires off another right hook that snaps the head to the side, and Oki sticks his tongue out and puts three fists on Aswell’s face in rapid succession. Aswell lands a few punches, and Oki spins with a back kick to the belly. Aswell connects with two punches and is out of the way before getting countered, and he steps in and bops Oki in the chops with a left. Oki knocks him back thanks to his power punches, and he works a left to the ribs and a right up top. They both land at the same time, and Oki dodges an elbow to send Aswell retreating. Oki chains a knee into a right hand, and Aswell is tough as nails but is standing still when Oki puts hands on him. Aswell goes for two, and Oki’s lead jab and check hook to the damage. Oki knees his foe again, and he trips as he swings for the fences and recovers quickly. Oki takes a low kick on the calf and drills Aswell with a short combo, forcing the Texan to ricochet off the wall. Oki’s right hand further pounds Aswell on the jaw, and he jumps forward with a knee that flies past his foe on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki
Round 3
One final glove touch kicks off the last round, and Oki starts off quickly with a jab and a chin-shaking right hand. Aswell displays near otherworldly durability as Oki is not taking it easy on him, but it is Oki in the driver’s seat. The power is substantially in his favor, and he has Aswell reacting to his strikes while he largely shrugs off the ones coming back his way. Even with Aswell’s likely higher volume, the right and left hooks from Oki are far more impactful. A few such hooks land on the chin, and Oki eats a counter, pats himself on the head to ask Aswell to bring it on and throws back. Oki leads off with his left hook, and three punches of his back Aswell up to the fence. Oki continue to chase after his opponent as Aswell is in retreat mode now, and he keeps his guard high to let Aswell’s swings bounce off him. Oki takes a hard right hand, and when Aswell doubles up his jab, Oki smiles at him and asks for more. Aswell obliges, but not before Oki clips him again hard. The strike totals are sky-high in this fight and the numbers are likely quite close, but Oki has figured out how to put volume together while still hitting Aswell harder than he gets hit back. Oki marks up Aswell’s left eye with his power right hand, and Aswell is looking for answers as his mighty swings seem to have no effect on the Belgian. Oki walks into and through a right hand, and he winds up with three hearty swings that bounce Aswell’s head around. Oki is determined to swing it out to the bell, and he does just that.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Oki (29-28 Oki)
The Official Result
Bolaji Oki def. Michael Aswell via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Aswell is a short-notice replacement and a smaller fighter, and that Oki's physicality should be too much. He expects the odds to be heavily in Oki's favor.
Matt picks Bolaji Oki to win by decision. He highlights Oki's power punching and ability to maintain his gas tank over three rounds, while Aswell is a basic pressure fighter moving up a weight class on short notice. He expects Oki to land the more eye-catching shots and win on the scorecards, noting Aswell's durability but lack of power.
Zane picks Oki because he is a solid athlete and Aswell is a short-notice replacement who is a 5'8" featherweight moving up, lacking the tools to diminish Oki's physical dominance. He notes that Aswell is scrappy but not a great athlete, and Oki's game, while not deep, should be enough to win.
Expert Picks (11)
Angelo picks Luke Riley confidently, noting he dealt with adversity in his last fight (taken down four times but stayed composed and finished). He believes Luke is a much cleaner and faster striker, and expects him to win, calling it a showcase fight.
Big Brady picks Luke Riley, noting that Riley hits much harder and has more finishing upside than Michael Aswell. He points out that Aswell lands high volume but lacks power, and that his opponents often have bigger moments. He thinks Riley will have the bigger moments and win a damage-based decision, possibly with a knockdown. He also notes that Riley is the hometown favorite and the UFC is building him up.
Cody picks Riley but is not overly confident, noting Aswell's volume and durability. He thinks Riley's power and fan support will edge him a decision.
Connor picks Riley but is hesitant because he sees Aswell as a live dog. He notes that Aswell is a more principled striker and could win minutes, and Riley is volatile and can be dropped. However, Connor believes Riley has the dynamism to turn fights around, while Aswell lacks that ability. He compares Aswell to Garrett Armfield, who looks good in losses but cannot finish or change momentum.
Daniel thinks Riley is the more powerful guy with bigger moments, but Aswell has more volume. He expects a close decision win for Riley, noting the crowd factor in London. He's not fully confident because Aswell is tough and can hang in there.
Daniel Vreeland picks Luke Riley but expects a close fight. He thinks Riley is more athletic and hits harder, but Aswell is technically sound and will make it competitive. He predicts Riley wins a close decision rather than a knockout.
James picks Luke Riley but is hesitant, noting that Riley's style relies on landing a big shot and he can be outworked. He thinks Michael Aswell will have volume and durability, but Riley's power and crowd support in London could sway the judges. He mentions a bias towards Aswell but ultimately goes with Riley via decision.
The host picks Luke Riley by decision but is hesitant. He acknowledges Aswell's durability and consistent output, and notes that Riley is hittable. He expects a competitive fight where Riley's effective damage and hometown crowd give him the edge on the scorecards. He advises against betting Riley at -300.
Paul believes Riley's power and home crowd advantage will overcome Aswell's volume. He expects Riley to land the bigger shots and win a decision or late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Luke Riley to win by TKO, possibly via body shots in round two. He notes Riley has fast hands, power, and good recovery, while Aswell is slower and lacks finishing ability. He expects Riley to pressure, land body shots, and finish as Aswell fades. He also mentions Riley's momentum from a performance bonus in his debut.
Zane picks Riley because he believes Riley has better athleticism and can weather Aswell's early pressure, then find technical answers as the fight goes on. He cites Riley's ability to turn fights around, as seen against Bogdan Grad, whereas Aswell tends to fade and cannot change momentum when behind. Zane acknowledges Aswell's technical striking but sees his athletic limitations and stamina issues as decisive.
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