vs
-136 +406
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 4"
Reach 76"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 29
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Ben Johnston
0.0 SLpM
0.0% Str. Acc.
0.0 SApM
0.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Wes Schultz
4.6 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.97 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
4.52 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Ben Johnston
Moneyline
FanDuel -136
KO/TKO
BetWay +300
Submission
BetWay +225
Decision
BetWay +700
Wes Schultz
Moneyline
Pinnacle +406
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
BetRivers +265
Decision
BetRivers +1400
Ben Johnston - Fight History
LOSS vs Wes Schultz
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Johnston 0 12 of 16 75% 38 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 1 9:16
Wes Schultz 1 12 of 17 70% 22 of 32 0 of 3 0% 5 1 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Johnston 0 7 of 8 87% 16 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:26
Wes Schultz 0 3 of 3 100% 8 of 10 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
2 Ben Johnston 0 3 of 3 100% 20 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:36
Wes Schultz 1 2 of 3 66% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 3 1 1:14
3 Ben Johnston 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Wes Schultz 0 7 of 11 63% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Johnston 12 of 16 75% 11 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 11
Wes Schultz 12 of 17 70% 6 of 11 6 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 11 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Johnston 7 of 8 87% 6 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 7
Wes Schultz 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Ben Johnston 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3
Wes Schultz 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ben Johnston 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1
Wes Schultz 7 of 11 63% 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ben Johnston vs. Wesley Schultz

Round 1
Late bloomer Johnston (5-1) makes his Octagon debut against two-time Contender Series competitor Schultz (8-3; 0-1 UFC) in a middleweight clash. Referee Rich Mitchell will be tasked with keeping this one clean. Johnston is southpaw, Schultz orthodox, but Schultz shoots for a takedown before a single strike is thrown. He gets his man down, but Johnston rolls right through and takes top position. Schultz tries to keep the scramble going, but Johnston keeps the position and lands a couple of hard punches. Schultz scoots backward, elevating his hips for some possible offense from the bottom, but Johnston drives him all the way to the fence. Johnston drops some more solid ground strikes. Schultz sits up and grabs a front headlock, but Johnston extricates his head from danger, pushes Schultz back down and lands a couple more punches. Schultz gets back to his feet and drives Johnston into the fence. They exchange knees in the clinch, then Schultz does a half guard pull, half failed sacrifice throw and ends up on his back at the base of the fence. Under a minute left to go and Johnston is again in top position, in Schultz’s half guard, chipping away with short punches and elbow strikes. The round ends. 10-9 Johnston.

Round 2
They touch gloves to begin Round 2. Johnston clinches right away, possibly looking for a judo throw, but Schultz blasts him with a knee to the head. Schultz hustles his hurt foe to the ground with a guillotine choke, then adjusts his grip. Johnston is in real danger for a moment, but pops his head out and squirts to top position. Schultz explodes out of the position and lands on top in the ensuing scramble. Johnston gets up and Schultz takes his back. Schultz looks for a choke, but Johnston slips away and takes top position again. Johnston is in Schultz’s wide-open half guard against the fence and drops a few strikes. Schultz sits up and grabs another guillotine. It’s locked up, but Johnston calmly works through the hold, pulling his head out of danger a few seconds later, then punishes Schultz with several elbows and punches. A minute to go in the round and Johnston is on top, mashing Schultz into the corner of the cage with shoulder pressure. Johnston is close to passing his foe’s guard, grinding elbows into Schultz’s head. The horn sounds. 10-9 Johnston.

Round 3
Schultz surges forward with a series of big haymakers, backing Johnston up to the fence, and snatches a standing guillotine choke. He falls to guard and the choke is tight. Johnston spits out his mouthguard, trying to survive the hold, which Schultz adjusts into something closer to a neck crank. After a few more tense moments, Johnston pops his head out and they spring back to their feet. Mitchell stops the action to return Johnston’s gumshield, then motions them back to work.
Schultz goes for the guillotine yet again, jumping to guard, and cinches up his arms. Third time—or is it the fourth?—is the charm, as the debuting Aussie taps out.
Impressive commitment to the game plan from Wes Schultz, and it pays off with his first UFC win!

The Official Result
Wesley Schultz def. Ben Johnston R3 1:53 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Angelo picks Ben Johnston because he is more well-rounded with good striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He is concerned about Wes Schultz's potential if he uses his wrestling, but Schultz's last fight showed poor game planning and flopping on the ground. Angelo is hesitant because if Schultz wrestles effectively, he could win, but he trusts Johnston's overall MMA skills.

No bet recommended due to uncertainty; odds not mentioned.
"I'm going to pick Ben Johnson here. I'm not going to lay down two to one money on a dude this early in his career who hasn't proven himself in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Big Brady picks Ben Johnston to win by second-round knockout, but expresses hesitation due to Johnston's long layoff and limited experience. He notes that Johnston has a black belt in BJJ and better cardio, while Wes Schultz has poor cardio and wrestling that hasn't translated. Brady calls the fight a 'mess' and says he would pass on betting it.

Johnston by KO, round 2
"I'll take Johnston to win. And I think he probably does finish Shultz, you know, as the fight goes on. I'll say second round knockout for Ben Johnston here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Cody picks Schultz, citing Johnston's long layoff, recent shoulder surgery, and lack of striking training. He believes Schultz's wrestling and grappling will be too much for the rusty Johnston.

"Schultz will be the pick for me. There's just too many red flags on this Johnson guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Schultz because Johnston is incredibly undercooked and Schultz will aggressively go for takedowns. He notes that Schultz has been proven to lack athleticism but his wrestling and aggression should overwhelm Johnston. He calls it a good rule of thumb to go with the wrestler in this matchup.

"Agreed. Yeah, odds on the fight Schultz is the underdog plus 210 currently plus 120."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Daniel Vreeland had no clear pick and flipped a coin to decide. He noted that both fighters have significant unknowns: Johnston's layoff and takedown defense, Schultz's spastic style and loss to Dylan Budka. The coin landed on heads, so he picks Ben Johnston.

"I have no idea who wins this fight between Wes Schultz and Ben Johnson. So, we got to flip the coin."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Lucrative James picks Wes Schultz to win via submission. He cites Ben Johnston's two-year retirement and shoulder surgery as major red flags, and believes Schultz's unorthodox style and UFC experience will be decisive. He acknowledges Johnston may have better skills but favors the intangibles.

"I'm picking where shorts to win this fight and ultimately I'll pick him to win the fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

The host picks the upset, believing Schultz is the better wrestler and BJJ specialist, and that his activity and wrestling advantage will allow him to grind down Johnston. He expects a round two or three finish. The host is not impressed with Johnston's strength of schedule or grappling, and thinks Schultz is fringe UFC level but capable.

Round two or three finish
"I'm going to go with the upset here. I don't think Johnston is UFC level. I think Schultz is like fringe UFC level, but given his activity... I think we'll see Schultz grind Johnson down and then eventually work to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Paul picks Schultz, agreeing with Cody about Johnston's red flags. He notes Schultz's wrestling advantage and Johnston's inactivity, making Schultz the logical choice.

"I got Schultz."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ben Johnston

The MMA Guru picks Ben Johnston, citing his power, submission skills, and athleticism. He notes that Wes Schultz has been finished in recent fights and may not have the chin for the sport. He predicts a TKO win for Johnston, especially given Schultz's quick turnaround from a KO loss.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Ben Johnston. I'm going to take him by TKO, especially because Wes Shults is coming off of that destructive KO loss and he's already making a turnaround."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Zane picks Schultz because he thinks Schultz's funky wrestling will be too much for Johnston, who is undercooked and has never seen that style. He notes that Schultz is a bad athlete and his striking is risky, but Johnston's lack of experience against wrestlers gives Schultz the edge. He acknowledges Schultz has failed UFC tests before.

"I have to take Schultz. Yeah, you just think he's going to impose funky wrestling on Johnston."
Wes Schultz - Fight History
WIN vs Ben Johnston
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ben Johnston 0 12 of 16 75% 38 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 1 9:16
Wes Schultz 1 12 of 17 70% 22 of 32 0 of 3 0% 5 1 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ben Johnston 0 7 of 8 87% 16 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:26
Wes Schultz 0 3 of 3 100% 8 of 10 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:23
2 Ben Johnston 0 3 of 3 100% 20 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:36
Wes Schultz 1 2 of 3 66% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 3 1 1:14
3 Ben Johnston 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:14
Wes Schultz 0 7 of 11 63% 8 of 12 0 of 0 --- 2 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ben Johnston 12 of 16 75% 11 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 11
Wes Schultz 12 of 17 70% 6 of 11 6 of 6 0 of 0 6 of 11 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ben Johnston 7 of 8 87% 6 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 7
Wes Schultz 3 of 3 100% 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Ben Johnston 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 3
Wes Schultz 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Ben Johnston 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 1
Wes Schultz 7 of 11 63% 5 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ben Johnston vs. Wesley Schultz

Round 1
Late bloomer Johnston (5-1) makes his Octagon debut against two-time Contender Series competitor Schultz (8-3; 0-1 UFC) in a middleweight clash. Referee Rich Mitchell will be tasked with keeping this one clean. Johnston is southpaw, Schultz orthodox, but Schultz shoots for a takedown before a single strike is thrown. He gets his man down, but Johnston rolls right through and takes top position. Schultz tries to keep the scramble going, but Johnston keeps the position and lands a couple of hard punches. Schultz scoots backward, elevating his hips for some possible offense from the bottom, but Johnston drives him all the way to the fence. Johnston drops some more solid ground strikes. Schultz sits up and grabs a front headlock, but Johnston extricates his head from danger, pushes Schultz back down and lands a couple more punches. Schultz gets back to his feet and drives Johnston into the fence. They exchange knees in the clinch, then Schultz does a half guard pull, half failed sacrifice throw and ends up on his back at the base of the fence. Under a minute left to go and Johnston is again in top position, in Schultz’s half guard, chipping away with short punches and elbow strikes. The round ends. 10-9 Johnston.

Round 2
They touch gloves to begin Round 2. Johnston clinches right away, possibly looking for a judo throw, but Schultz blasts him with a knee to the head. Schultz hustles his hurt foe to the ground with a guillotine choke, then adjusts his grip. Johnston is in real danger for a moment, but pops his head out and squirts to top position. Schultz explodes out of the position and lands on top in the ensuing scramble. Johnston gets up and Schultz takes his back. Schultz looks for a choke, but Johnston slips away and takes top position again. Johnston is in Schultz’s wide-open half guard against the fence and drops a few strikes. Schultz sits up and grabs another guillotine. It’s locked up, but Johnston calmly works through the hold, pulling his head out of danger a few seconds later, then punishes Schultz with several elbows and punches. A minute to go in the round and Johnston is on top, mashing Schultz into the corner of the cage with shoulder pressure. Johnston is close to passing his foe’s guard, grinding elbows into Schultz’s head. The horn sounds. 10-9 Johnston.

Round 3
Schultz surges forward with a series of big haymakers, backing Johnston up to the fence, and snatches a standing guillotine choke. He falls to guard and the choke is tight. Johnston spits out his mouthguard, trying to survive the hold, which Schultz adjusts into something closer to a neck crank. After a few more tense moments, Johnston pops his head out and they spring back to their feet. Mitchell stops the action to return Johnston’s gumshield, then motions them back to work.
Schultz goes for the guillotine yet again, jumping to guard, and cinches up his arms. Third time—or is it the fourth?—is the charm, as the debuting Aussie taps out.
Impressive commitment to the game plan from Wes Schultz, and it pays off with his first UFC win!

The Official Result
Wesley Schultz def. Ben Johnston R3 1:53 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Angelo picks Ben Johnston because he is more well-rounded with good striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He is concerned about Wes Schultz's potential if he uses his wrestling, but Schultz's last fight showed poor game planning and flopping on the ground. Angelo is hesitant because if Schultz wrestles effectively, he could win, but he trusts Johnston's overall MMA skills.

No bet recommended due to uncertainty; odds not mentioned.
"I'm going to pick Ben Johnson here. I'm not going to lay down two to one money on a dude this early in his career who hasn't proven himself in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Big Brady picks Ben Johnston to win by second-round knockout, but expresses hesitation due to Johnston's long layoff and limited experience. He notes that Johnston has a black belt in BJJ and better cardio, while Wes Schultz has poor cardio and wrestling that hasn't translated. Brady calls the fight a 'mess' and says he would pass on betting it.

Johnston by KO, round 2
"I'll take Johnston to win. And I think he probably does finish Shultz, you know, as the fight goes on. I'll say second round knockout for Ben Johnston here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Cody picks Schultz, citing Johnston's long layoff, recent shoulder surgery, and lack of striking training. He believes Schultz's wrestling and grappling will be too much for the rusty Johnston.

"Schultz will be the pick for me. There's just too many red flags on this Johnson guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Schultz because Johnston is incredibly undercooked and Schultz will aggressively go for takedowns. He notes that Schultz has been proven to lack athleticism but his wrestling and aggression should overwhelm Johnston. He calls it a good rule of thumb to go with the wrestler in this matchup.

"Agreed. Yeah, odds on the fight Schultz is the underdog plus 210 currently plus 120."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Daniel Vreeland had no clear pick and flipped a coin to decide. He noted that both fighters have significant unknowns: Johnston's layoff and takedown defense, Schultz's spastic style and loss to Dylan Budka. The coin landed on heads, so he picks Ben Johnston.

"I have no idea who wins this fight between Wes Schultz and Ben Johnson. So, we got to flip the coin."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Lucrative James picks Wes Schultz to win via submission. He cites Ben Johnston's two-year retirement and shoulder surgery as major red flags, and believes Schultz's unorthodox style and UFC experience will be decisive. He acknowledges Johnston may have better skills but favors the intangibles.

"I'm picking where shorts to win this fight and ultimately I'll pick him to win the fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

The host picks the upset, believing Schultz is the better wrestler and BJJ specialist, and that his activity and wrestling advantage will allow him to grind down Johnston. He expects a round two or three finish. The host is not impressed with Johnston's strength of schedule or grappling, and thinks Schultz is fringe UFC level but capable.

Round two or three finish
"I'm going to go with the upset here. I don't think Johnston is UFC level. I think Schultz is like fringe UFC level, but given his activity... I think we'll see Schultz grind Johnson down and then eventually work to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Paul picks Schultz, agreeing with Cody about Johnston's red flags. He notes Schultz's wrestling advantage and Johnston's inactivity, making Schultz the logical choice.

"I got Schultz."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ben Johnston

The MMA Guru picks Ben Johnston, citing his power, submission skills, and athleticism. He notes that Wes Schultz has been finished in recent fights and may not have the chin for the sport. He predicts a TKO win for Johnston, especially given Schultz's quick turnaround from a KO loss.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Ben Johnston. I'm going to take him by TKO, especially because Wes Shults is coming off of that destructive KO loss and he's already making a turnaround."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Zane picks Schultz because he thinks Schultz's funky wrestling will be too much for Johnston, who is undercooked and has never seen that style. He notes that Schultz is a bad athlete and his striking is risky, but Johnston's lack of experience against wrestlers gives Schultz the edge. He acknowledges Schultz has failed UFC tests before.

"I have to take Schultz. Yeah, you just think he's going to impose funky wrestling on Johnston."
LOSS vs Damian Pinas
KO R1 2:30 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damian Pinas 2 15 of 23 65% 22 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Wes Schultz 0 3 of 13 23% 5 of 16 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:28
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damian Pinas 2 15 of 23 65% 22 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Wes Schultz 0 3 of 13 23% 5 of 16 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damian Pinas 15 of 23 65% 9 of 16 2 of 3 4 of 4 8 of 13 1 of 1 6 of 9
Wes Schultz 3 of 13 23% 0 of 6 2 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damian Pinas 15 of 23 65% 9 of 16 2 of 3 4 of 4 8 of 13 1 of 1 6 of 9
Wes Schultz 3 of 13 23% 0 of 6 2 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 12 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Angelo picks Wes Schultz because of his credentialed wrestling and ability to take down Damian Pinas, whose takedown defense is just okay. He notes that in Mexico, wrestling is scored more favorably than in Vegas. He acknowledges Pinas's power but believes Schultz can neutralize it with takedowns.

Mentions a possible sprinkle on Schultz at +180, and also a Damian inside the distance decision if worried about power.
"Schultz is the pick. Plus 180. I might have to sprinkle sprinkle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Damian Pinas

Big Brady picks Damian Pinas, citing his knockout power and youth at 23. He acknowledges Pinas is green and has concerns if the fight hits the mat, as Wes Schultz has good jiu-jitsu and a submission win on the Contender Series. However, Brady believes it will be hard for Schultz to take Pinas down, and if he doesn't, Pinas will put him away. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"So, give me Penis here. I'm a big fan of Penis and I think he wins this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Damian Pinas

Cody picks Pinas, believing his power and youth will eventually overcome Schultz's wrestling. He expects Pinas to tire Schultz out and knock him out in later rounds. He sees Pinas as the better prospect.

"My heart tells me at some point he's going to just tire out West Schultz, especially at altitude and then I'm knocking him out in the second and the third round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Damian Pinas

Connor picks Pinas, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Schultz's loss to Dylan Budka is a huge red flag, as Budka caught him with a body lock and slammed him. Pinas hits hard and is instinctive, and Schultz puts himself in position to take hard punches.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I think if nothing else, that Dylan Budka loss is a huge red flag."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)

The host finds this fight difficult to predict due to limited footage of both fighters going past the first round. He notes that Damian is explosive and powerful but has never been to a decision, while Schultz has cardio concerns but may have improved. The high altitude in Mexico City adds uncertainty. He concludes it's a great fight for live betting but not for pre-fight bets.

"This is one of those fights, too many unknowns, too many uncertainties. It's a great fight for live betting, but pre-fight, not a chance. Absolutely dead."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Damian Pinas

James believes Pinas is the better striker and has superior cardio, while Schultz tends to fade. He expects Pinas to win, likely by knockout, as Schultz's grappling may not be enough.

"I got Pinas to win the fight... I'll say via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Damian Pinas

The host picks Damian Pinas to win by first-round knockout, citing Pinas's athleticism and power. He notes that Pinas is a raw but powerful striker who can put Schultz away early. However, he warns that if the fight goes past the first round, Schultz's wrestling and cardio could take over. He prefers the round 1 KO prop at +250 over the moneyline at -260.

Round 1 KO prop at +250
"I am going to go with Damen Pine. I think he gets that round one knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mark Schultz

Paul took a small shot on Schultz at +215, citing his superior wrestling and Pinas's potential cardio issues at altitude. He notes Schultz's tendency to gas but believes his grappling can win early rounds. He acknowledges Pinas's power and upside.

"I took a small shot on Wes Schultz at plus 215 and it has 100% to do with the grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Damian Pinas

The MMA Guru picks Damian Pinas based on his explosiveness and power, noting that Wes Schultz tends to shy away from punches and has shown fear against athletic opponents. He predicts a first-round TKO, citing Pinas's sharp striking and Schultz's vulnerability. He also mentions that Pinas might get cut if he loses, but that doesn't affect his pick.

first round TKO
"I'm going to go with Damian Pinas getting this one down by first round TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Damian Pinas

Zane picks Pinas because he needs this man to have a long career for entertainment value. He notes that Schultz has a loss to Dylan Budka, which is a red flag, and that Pinas hits hard and is instinctive. However, Pinas is raw and his wrestling is questionable.

Schultz opened at +410, now +245; Pinas opened at -525, now -290.
"I'm going to pick penis because I need this man to have as long career as possible."
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Angelo picks Ben Johnston because he is more well-rounded with good striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He is concerned about Wes Schultz's potential if he uses his wrestling, but Schultz's last fight showed poor game planning and flopping on the ground. Angelo is hesitant because if Schultz wrestles effectively, he could win, but he trusts Johnston's overall MMA skills.

No bet recommended due to uncertainty; odds not mentioned.
"I'm going to pick Ben Johnson here. I'm not going to lay down two to one money on a dude this early in his career who hasn't proven himself in the octagon."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Big Brady picks Ben Johnston to win by second-round knockout, but expresses hesitation due to Johnston's long layoff and limited experience. He notes that Johnston has a black belt in BJJ and better cardio, while Wes Schultz has poor cardio and wrestling that hasn't translated. Brady calls the fight a 'mess' and says he would pass on betting it.

Johnston by KO, round 2
"I'll take Johnston to win. And I think he probably does finish Shultz, you know, as the fight goes on. I'll say second round knockout for Ben Johnston here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Cody picks Schultz, citing Johnston's long layoff, recent shoulder surgery, and lack of striking training. He believes Schultz's wrestling and grappling will be too much for the rusty Johnston.

"Schultz will be the pick for me. There's just too many red flags on this Johnson guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Schultz because Johnston is incredibly undercooked and Schultz will aggressively go for takedowns. He notes that Schultz has been proven to lack athleticism but his wrestling and aggression should overwhelm Johnston. He calls it a good rule of thumb to go with the wrestler in this matchup.

"Agreed. Yeah, odds on the fight Schultz is the underdog plus 210 currently plus 120."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Ben Johnston

Daniel Vreeland had no clear pick and flipped a coin to decide. He noted that both fighters have significant unknowns: Johnston's layoff and takedown defense, Schultz's spastic style and loss to Dylan Budka. The coin landed on heads, so he picks Ben Johnston.

"I have no idea who wins this fight between Wes Schultz and Ben Johnson. So, we got to flip the coin."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Lucrative James picks Wes Schultz to win via submission. He cites Ben Johnston's two-year retirement and shoulder surgery as major red flags, and believes Schultz's unorthodox style and UFC experience will be decisive. He acknowledges Johnston may have better skills but favors the intangibles.

"I'm picking where shorts to win this fight and ultimately I'll pick him to win the fight via submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

The host picks the upset, believing Schultz is the better wrestler and BJJ specialist, and that his activity and wrestling advantage will allow him to grind down Johnston. He expects a round two or three finish. The host is not impressed with Johnston's strength of schedule or grappling, and thinks Schultz is fringe UFC level but capable.

Round two or three finish
"I'm going to go with the upset here. I don't think Johnston is UFC level. I think Schultz is like fringe UFC level, but given his activity... I think we'll see Schultz grind Johnson down and then eventually work to a round two or round three finish."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Wes Schultz

Paul picks Schultz, agreeing with Cody about Johnston's red flags. He notes Schultz's wrestling advantage and Johnston's inactivity, making Schultz the logical choice.

"I got Schultz."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Ben Johnston

The MMA Guru picks Ben Johnston, citing his power, submission skills, and athleticism. He notes that Wes Schultz has been finished in recent fights and may not have the chin for the sport. He predicts a TKO win for Johnston, especially given Schultz's quick turnaround from a KO loss.

TKO
"I'm going to go with Ben Johnston. I'm going to take him by TKO, especially because Wes Shults is coming off of that destructive KO loss and he's already making a turnaround."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Wes Schultz

Zane picks Schultz because he thinks Schultz's funky wrestling will be too much for Johnston, who is undercooked and has never seen that style. He notes that Schultz is a bad athlete and his striking is risky, but Johnston's lack of experience against wrestlers gives Schultz the edge. He acknowledges Schultz has failed UFC tests before.

"I have to take Schultz. Yeah, you just think he's going to impose funky wrestling on Johnston."