Career Averages - Tim Elliott
Career Averages - Steve Erceg
Tim Elliott
Steve Erceg
Tim Elliott - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 90 of 261 | 34% | 93 of 265 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 136 of 254 | 53% | 136 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 40 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 28 of 79 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 47 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 24 of 92 | 26% | 25 of 93 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 65 of 114 | 57% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 90 of 261 | 34% | 44 of 191 | 11 of 27 | 35 of 43 | 87 of 255 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 136 of 254 | 53% | 122 of 236 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 129 of 245 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 39 of 91 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 5 of 15 | 14 of 19 | 39 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 24 of 55 | 43% | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 27 of 78 | 34% | 10 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 14 | 24 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 47 of 85 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 24 of 92 | 26% | 14 of 78 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 65 of 114 | 57% | 57 of 102 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 64 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.
Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.
Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.
Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.
Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.
Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.
The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.
Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 71 | 38% | 42 of 88 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 21 of 87 | 24% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 16 of 40 | 40% | 24 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 11 of 45 | 24% | 20 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 18 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kai Asakura | 0 | 10 of 42 | 23% | 18 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 27 of 71 | 38% | 18 of 43 | 2 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 26 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Kai Asakura | 21 of 87 | 24% | 17 of 79 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 87 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 16 of 40 | 40% | 9 of 24 | 1 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Kai Asakura | 11 of 45 | 24% | 8 of 40 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 11 of 31 | 35% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Kai Asakura | 10 of 42 | 23% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Asakura (-310), Elliott (+250)
Round 1
It’s main card time, and a pair of exciting flyweights will start off this $85 event—regional pricing notwithstanding. After over a year and a half away, elder statesman Elliott (20-13-1, 9-11 UFC) comes back to the cage to take on former title challenger and ex-Rizin champ Asakura (21-5, 0-1 UFC). The latter is looking for his first UFC win, as he was thrust into a championship opportunity in his December debut, and he fights down the rankings board to find his place in the division. The two will have referee Rob Madrigal overseeing what should be a fun one, and they do not tap their gloves together to engage.
Elliott fakes a giant spinning kick to lead off, and he lowers his hands and starts tossing out flashy kicks. Asakura answers him with two powerful punches upstairs, and Elliott still does not pick his hands up. Elliott hops up and down while switching stances, drawing out a few more punches that he avoids successfully before pitching a head kick. Elliott spins with a back kick, and he absorbs three punches to the body and head from the Japanese flyweight. Asakura bears down on Elliott to strike him a few times, and he rocks the former Glory MMA fighter with his big swings. Elliott swings back hard too, and he nods to Asakura that he got caught. Elliott waves his hands around awkwardly waiting for Asakura to engage, and he misses his strikes including an open-handed slap.
Asakura nails the longtime vet with a right hand and a left hook that drives Elliott to the wall, but Elliott bounces away no harm done. Asakura beats his man to the punch with his long strikes, and Elliott’s offense is barely going at all. Asakura puts a one-two down the pipe that cuts open Elliott’s left eyebrow, and he gets off a knee to the body and several punches after it. Elliott bounces back, landing a single low kick but getting potshotted by Asakura. Elliott tags his foe at the end of a single right hand, but it is one-and-done as he gets back to unorthodox movements and attacks like a cartwheel kick. Asakura boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott ducks down and secures a double to advance immediately to the side. Elliott spams surprisingly heavy knees to the body to open up elbows, and he briefly traps Asakura’s arm beneath his leg to open up more strikes. Elliott elbows a few more times, and Asakura scrambles to stand as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Asakura
Round 2
As the second round begins, Elliott motions to the crowd to get excited and then somersaults towards his opponent. Asakura ignores it and lets Elliott stand up so he can plant his fist in his face. Elliott’s strange movement opens up a heavy left hand for him, and he connects a second in the middle of Asakura’s counters. Chants in favor of Elliott rain down, but no one does anything to take advantage of that energy. Asakura scores a leg kick, and Elliott goes to the body and then flails his way forward with fists flying. Elliott slips and rips with a left hand, and he winds up another and catches Asakura flush on the jaw. Asakura comes up short with a flying knee, and Elliott dodges the worst of them and is right back in Asakura’s face with a left hook zooming. Asakura times a solid right hand with Elliott ducking, and Elliott just smiles at him. How demoralizing.
Elliott jams Asakura in the knee with a pair of stomping kicks, and his low kicks that follow disrupt the wide-swinging Asakura. Elliott keeps himself afloat with decent movement, especially upstairs, but he still takes the occasional power punch that turns his different parts of his face a shade of crimson. Elliott runs at his opponent and secures a takedown, but when he circles to take the back, Asakura is able to escape. Asakura just misses with two booming hooks, and Elliott is as wild as ever as he ducks some punches, dances around and shoots with a takedown. Asakura sits up, and Elliott threatens with a guillotine choke and uses it to relocate himself to full mount. Asakura pushes with all his might to relieve the pressure, but his eyes start to bulge and his face changes colors. Even with little time left in the round, Asakura cannot ride it out any longer. The former Rizin champ taps out twice on the hip, and Elliott has just pulled off quite an upset. The year is 2025 and Tim Elliott has just finished a fight over a man many years his junior.
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Kai Asakura R2 4:39 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo questions why Asakura is a 3-to-1 favorite given his lack of UFC success and poor takedown defense. He believes Elliott's grit, forward pressure, and grappling can overwhelm Asakura, despite Elliott's age and layoff. He picks Elliott, rooting for him due to his personal story.
Big Brady picks Kai Asakura to win by second-round knockout. He is worried about Tim Elliott's age (38), layoff (1 year 8 months), and cardio. He thinks Asakura has good takedown defense and nasty striking with power. He notes Elliott hasn't faced many power punchers and that Asakura is a big favorite. He also questions Elliott's training camp. He expects Asakura to finish Elliott.
Connor picks Asakura, but with low confidence, noting that Asakura is an insanely talented intercepting striker with good scrambling wrestling. He believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could lead to Elliott's first knockout loss, as Elliott is very hittable. However, he acknowledges that Elliott's tenacity and chain wrestling could exhaust Asakura, and that Asakura's defense is poor.
The host acknowledges Asakura's finishing nature but highlights Elliott's elite flyweight grappling and record. He expects Elliott to avoid Asakura's finishing style, grind him against the cage, take him down, and win by decision with top control.
The Guru picks Kai Asakura to win by first-round KO over Tim Elliott. He believes Asakura is more dynamic, physical, and has finishing potential. The Guru notes that Elliott lacks power and will not be able to earn Asakura's respect on the feet. He predicts Asakura will eat a few shots, realize he can take them, and then finish Elliott with a brutal combination. The Guru also mentions Elliott's age and lack of motivation as factors.
Zane picks Asakura, but is not confident, noting that Asakura's style is high-risk and that Elliott is durable and has never been knocked out. He points out that Asakura's defense is poor but he stays focused and is hard to hurt. Zane believes Asakura's speed and counter-striking could be too much for Elliott, but he acknowledges that Elliott's wrestling could be a problem if he gets takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 26 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Sumudaerji | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Sumudaerji | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 8 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Sumudaerji | 10 of 25 | 40% | 6 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-165), Mudarji (+135)
Round 1
Stepping up a few days ago to replace Allan Nascimento, former flyweight title challenger Elliott (19-13-1, 8-11 UFC) pops into this now-bantamweight bash with Mudaerji (16-5, 3-2 UFC). This scrap that could—and very well may—take place anywhere will be overseen by referee Herb Dean, and he is ready for what comes next. The fighters touch ‘em up, and Elliott somersaults his way in to kick Mudaerji. Mudaerji shrugs it off, and Elliott keeps his knee up high to fluster his opponent. Mudaerji tries to pick off the veteran from range, and he gets in long strikes every so often to get Elliott’s attention. Mudaerji stays composed and does not fall for many of the awkward movements from Elliott, and he picks his shots carefully and stings Elliott with a right hand. Mudaerji boots Elliott upside the head, and Elliott grabs hold of the leg and tries to take him down. Mudaerji keeps his balance, but he gets clipped with a right hook when setting it down. Mudaerji connects with a clean left hand, and he strings several punches together until Elliott charges at him to go after a single. Elliott lifts Mudaerji’s leg above his head and elbows the Chinese fighter in the face, and he trips Mudaerji up and tosses him to the canvas. Elliott slithers his way over to half guard as he grinds on Mudaerji with elbows, and he draws blood as Mudaerji turns to his side. Elliott keeps his arm around Mudaerji’s head to threaten with a potential submission should Mudaerji sit up, and Elliott drills him with an elbow.
Elliott leaps over to the other side and locks down an arm-triangle choke, and the choke is instantly in and tight. Elliott presses down his full body weight, and blood sprays from Mudaerji’s mouth in a brutal, cinematic moment as Mudaerji loses consciousness.
Dean recognizes that Mudaerji is done, checking the arm of “Tibetan Eagle” and seeing there is no resistance, and he yanks Elliot off of the unconscious fighter. This is a great feather in the cap of the veteran, who earns his first finish since December 2017 with the technical submission.
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Su Mudaerji R1 4:02 via Technical Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Cody picks Sumudaerji because he doubts Tim Elliott's conditioning. He notes that Elliott took the fight on three days' notice and has only trained twice. Cody thinks Elliott's cardio is already suspect and will fade quickly. He believes Sumudaerji has a good left hand and can capitalize if Elliott tires. Cody suggests this is a better live bet opportunity, but for a pre-fight pick, he goes with Sumudaerji.
Lucrative James acknowledges the volatility due to Elliott taking the fight on short notice after a recent grappling match. He sees a massive striking advantage for Sumudaerji and thinks he could crack Elliott. However, he notes Elliott's massive grappling edge and that Sumudaerji has been submitted in all his losses. He leans Sumudaerji but passes on betting because the line is +110 and he can't lay that with the grappling disparity. He picks Sumudaerji for the win.
Paul picks Tim Elliott but is curious about the submission prop. He notes that Elliott's wrestling and ground game are superior, and Sumudaerji has poor submission defense. Paul thinks Elliott can find a submission if he plays his cards right. He acknowledges Elliott's cardio issues but believes the grappling advantage is significant. Paul is waiting for the Elliott by submission prop to open and hopes for a price around +400 to +500.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 71 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:23 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 118 of 146 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 8:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 20 of 31 | 64% | 34 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 10 of 28 | 35% | 40 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 33 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 60 of 65 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:52 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Muhammad Mokaev | 30 of 43 | 69% | 19 of 30 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 27 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 33 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Muhammad Mokaev | 20 of 31 | 64% | 10 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 25 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Tim Elliott | 10 of 28 | 35% | 4 of 16 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Muhammad Mokaev | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 |
| Tim Elliott | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Muhammad Mokaev | 4 of 6 | 66% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mokaev (-485), Elliott (+370)
Round 1
Generations will clash in the preliminary headliner, when old guard representative Elliott (19-12-1, 8-10 UFC) tries to teach 23-year-old up-and-comer Mokaev (10-0, 1 NC; 4-0 UFC) a thing or two. Before a torch is or is not passed at 125 pounds, referee Jason Herzog lights it. The gloves are touched, and Elliott hops forward with his leg up and gets swatted back. Mokaev tags his opponent, but Elliott powers through it to hit a takedown and put the youngster on his back early. Mokaev looks to hook an elbow from off his back and stifle anything coming down on him, but Elliott elects to simply smack “The Punisher” in the jaw with that wing. Elliott drops down a couple elbows until Mokaev scrambles back up to his feet, and Elliott is quick to stuff a takedown that comes at him. Elliott skims the Dagestan-born fighter’s forehead with an elbow, and he chases after Mokaev with his hands down. Mokaev attempts another takedown, and he is stopped in his tracks. Mokaev puts his hands on the mat, and Elliot knees him twice with questionable strikes – largely depending on the amount of weight Mokaev had on his hands. Mokaev is fine, and the fight resumes. Elliott spins with a back kick, and his awkward kicks are frustrating the younger fighter. Mokaev lunges with a right hand, and he trips up the veteran and takes him down. Elliott snatches up a guillotine choke and torques with all his might, and Mokaev appears unconcerned at the submission and allows Elliott to gas his arms out. Elliott goes after the submission again when fully hitting his back, and that second attempt also falls short. Elliott hacks with elbows off his back, and Mokaev tries to get busy with short body shots. Elliott defends himself from anything of merit, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 2
When the second round opens, Mokaev shoots directly into a double. Elliott sees this coming and clamps down a guillotine choke. Mokaev, patient and calm, does not struggle or do much to put himself in harm’s way. Instead, he does the right things to step to the side and wriggle his neck out, and he moves to top position as Elliott elbows him illegally behind the head several times. Elliott is the active striker of the two despite Mokaev on top of him, although few strikes of merit connect on either side. Mokaev clings to the former title challenger while looking to pass, but Elliott’s guard keeps him at bay. Mokaev sits up, and he falls right into a triangle choke trap. Elliott grips hold of an armbar to make things worse, and “The Punisher” uses all of his might to lift Elliott in the air and slam him down to break up the submission. Both fighters flail their fists while in the horizontal position, and Elliott hooks his leg around Mokaev’s arm to stifle him. Mokaev settles to grind out the remainder of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Mokaev
Round 3
The awkward stylings of Elliott allow him to close the distance without absorbing anything but a front kick, and he walks forward until Mokaev attempts a takedown. Elliott elbows his man in the top of the head, and after two close ones, Mokaev puts his hands on the mat and is struck with the third that is called a foul. Herzog calls time and gives Mokaev moments to recover, and Mokaev walks around getting the crowd excited. The replay shows the strikes were legal, and Herzog resets them in the same position. Mokaev uses this moment of confusion when they resume to snatch up Elliott’s ankle and flip him over in a slick maneuver. Mokaev does little with the position when he claims it, holding Elliott down and disallowing him from getting up. Elliott grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and this lets Mokaev counter him with a Von Preux setup of the shoulder over his foe’s neck. Elliott releases the grip, but “The Punisher” punishes him for making this mistake by locking down the arm-triangle choke. Mokaev, who slithers into mount, steps partially to the side and presses his full body weight down to complete the submission. Elliott does not need long before tapping out, and Mokaev has recorded the biggest win of his career impressively.
The Official Result
Muhammad Mokaev def. Tim Elliott R3 3:03 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Muhammad Mokaev but fades the bet. He acknowledges Mokaev's 0% takedown defense and that Tim Elliott will test it. He notes Mokaev's wins are not as dominant as they seem (Gordon old, Duran took him down, Jafel Filho had a kneebar). He thinks Mokaev's offensive wrestling will prevail but Elliott could cause an upset.
Big Brady picks Muhammad Mokaev to win by third round submission. He notes that Tim Elliott has been submitted many times in his career, while Mokaev is a very good grappler with submission wins over black belts. Brady expects a competitive scramble but believes Mokaev will catch Elliott in a submission as Elliott tends to make mistakes.
Cody picks Elliott, echoing Paul's sentiment that Mokaev is untested and has shown holes in his game. He highlights Elliott's superior wrestling, scrambling, and striking volume, and notes that Mokaev's takedowns are often not held down. Cody believes Elliott's experience and ability to push a pace will lead to an upset, possibly by decision.
Daniel picks Muhammad Mokaev to win, praising his toughness, wrestling, and heart, especially his survival of a kneebar. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's veteran savvy and improved training camp but believes Mokaev's youth and ability to push through fatigue will be decisive. He expects an exciting scramble-heavy fight and thinks Mokaev can submit Elliott or win a decision. He notes that Elliott has stopped prospects before but believes Mokaev is a different level.
James was heavy on Mokaev submission, playing it in two degenerate parlays and also betting half a unit on Mokaev submission in round two and round three at big prices. He also bet under 2.5 rounds. He noted that Mokaev got the submission via arm triangle at 3:33 of round three, just missing the under 2.5 by 33 seconds. James was confident Mokaev would finish, as he saw it as one of his favorite spots on the card.
Mokaev has phenomenal scrambling ability and pushes a high pace. He stays ahead in scrambles and dominates from top position. His striking is flashy but serves to set up takedowns. Elliott is a legitimate test but Mokaev is skilled enough to win by decision. Not confident enough to bet at -600, but would consider at -400.
Paul picks Elliott as a dog, arguing that Mokaev is overvalued based on his record against weak competition. He notes that Mokaev has low striking volume and has struggled with cardio and takedown defense, while Elliott has fought elite competition and has a scrambling style that will frustrate Mokaev. Paul believes Elliott's experience and unorthodox striking will earn him a decision or even a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Muhammad Mokaev by decision (29-28), but is hesitant. He thinks Mokaev has the reach advantage and is more dangerous on the feet, and can negate Elliott's grappling. However, he notes that Mokaev has had close fights and nearly lost to Jeffery Filho and Malcolm Gordon. He also points out that Elliott is a good bet by decision as a hedge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 28 of 57 | 49% | 153 of 237 | 6 of 7 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 11:13 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 102 of 142 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 44 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 47 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 49 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 35 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 34 | 41% | 60 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Victor Altamirano | 0 | 10 of 18 | 55% | 20 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 28 of 57 | 49% | 22 of 48 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 32 |
| Victor Altamirano | 19 of 39 | 48% | 10 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 31 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 9 of 14 | 64% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 |
| Victor Altamirano | 2 of 8 | 25% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Victor Altamirano | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 14 of 34 | 41% | 10 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 |
| Victor Altamirano | 10 of 18 | 55% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Elliott (-175), Altamirano (+150)
Round 1
This flyweight affair figures to be a wild one, as former title challenger Elliott (18-12-1, 7-10 UFC) has gone through a lot lately and is looking to push past personal drama to record a win. He faces Texan Altamirano (12-2, 2-1 UFC), who has strung two wins together on his own ledger. This potentially high-paced contest will have referee Mark Smith serve as the Octagon ranger, and the amped up fighters touch gloves quickly. Altamirano leaps out from his corner with kicks, and as he does, Elliott grabs hold of one and lowers him to the floor. Altamirano defends when his seat hits the mat with powerful hammerfists, and Elliott responds with his own from on top. Altamirano is active on his back with strikes and movement, wriggling and trying to force a scramble or irritate Elliott enough with his blows to slow offense. Altamirano kicks off the chest to fight his way up, and when he is upright again, he throws a low kick. Elliott catches it and dumps his man to the floor, and he starts unloading with Donkey Kong-esque hammerfists. Altamirano threatens with an armbar off his back, and Elliott shucks it off so that he can continue striking. Altamirano sets up a high guard and considers another armbar, and Elliott once more pushes through it to land shots. Altamirano stays busy with an offensive guard, despite the strikes landing on his face repeatedly, and the veteran Elliott sees the setups and knows how to avoid any of them from getting too close. Elliott stands up to stack his man up, and he lowers himself back down while dropping punches. Elliott grinds his forehead on the opponent, slugging away all the while. Elliott is seemingly frantic with his strikes, but doing so allows him to not set up a pattern that can allow him to fall into a trap. Altamirano tries to secure another armbar, and Elliott tosses it aside to punch “El Magnifico” in the face. Elliott keeps beating on Altamirano, with no strike individually immensely powerful, but the number is adding up fast. The round ends, and Smith is quick to get between them as they still want to keep going at it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The fighters toss out a glove touch just before engaging, and Elliott walks into a leg kick and a right hand. Altamirano gets up close, and Elliott manages to force a scramble that lets him dump Altamirano to his back. Elliott looks to pick up where he left off, with erratic ground strikes and no fear of Altamirano’s guard. Elliott places his knee on his foe’s to pry open the guard, and he drags his elbow back and forth on Altamirano’s face as if he were trying to saw a log with it. Elliott postures up after landing some strikes, and he allows Altamirano to stand up so that he can drive several knees to the body. Altamirano celebrates the standing position again by booting Elliott upside the head, and the former title challenger is stung and ends up falling to his back. Altamirano climbs on top of him, and he laces an elbow over the top while Elliott maintains butterfly hooks. Elliott manages to kick off, and he darts forward with a right hand. Altamirano responds with a single, and Elliott drops down for a guillotine choke that has no legs to it. Elliott lines up a left hand, a haymaker from downtown, and he succeeds in blasting Altamirano in the head with it. Elliott takes advantage of this by bowling Altamirano over, and he moves on top even as Altamirano turns to his side in an effort to escape. Elliott settles for controlling position as he looks to move into a more traditional position on top, and he shifts into the guard that closes around him. Elliott grinds his forehead in the eye socket, and Altamirano throws his legs up for something, anything. Elliott ignores this so he can mount some offense, and he proceeds to batter Altamirano until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
Elliott practically runs out of his corner to start kicking, and he lifts his leg up in the air to hop forward and kick down with a stomp to the knee. Elliott hops back and forth, springing to the side, and Smith tells to fight. Elliott obliges him by swinging a monstrous right hand, and Altamirano eats it like brisket and strikes back. Altamirano slips a kick up to the head, and Elliott ducks into a subsequent kick and avoids a spinning wheel kick. The kicks from the Texan open him up to grappling, and Elliott exploits this with an easy takedown. Elliott leans Altamirano up against the cage between the corner of the floor and the wall, and he sits in the guard slamming Altamirano with elbows. Altamirano keeps his guard up to not let many get through, but Elliott is busy attacking while Altamirano is stuck defending on his back. Altamirano gets dragged out from sitting up so that Elliott can keep working him over, and Altamirano tries and fails for a high guard to a submission effort. Elliott remains active on top with movement and control, but he lacks offense as Smith grows restless. Altamirano explodes to his seat and up, and Elliott meets him on the way up with a knee that was borderline. Altamirano gets up and releases a head kick, and Elliott takes it on the chin and keeps on chugging. Altamirano strings a few punches together into a leg kick, and Elliott gathers his thoughts and secures a takedown to place the Texan flat on his back. Elliott lands in the guard, and Altamirano closes it up and hangs on to prevent getting struck. Elliott grinds with a few elbows as Altamirano feebly tosses his legs up for an armbar. Elliott keeps on striking right to the bitter end, and he stands and marches away with a frown on his face at the sound of the horn, expecting he will get his hand raised very shortly.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Victor Altamirano via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Elliott, citing his pressure, volume, and grappling. He thinks Altamirano's takedown defense is improving but still not good enough. Elliott's ability to keep coming forward and secure takedowns will be the difference. Angelo is confident Elliott gets it done.
Cody picks Elliott but with reservations. He highlights Elliott's wrestling as his best weapon, but worries that Elliott's stated intention to slug it out could backfire. Cody notes Altamirano's durability and speed, and that Elliott's best performances come when he has personal animosity (like against Espinoza). He thinks the under is an interesting play but is not confident in Elliott's game plan.
Connor picks Elliott, agreeing it's a levels fight. He notes that Altamirano's striking is poor and his grappling is functional but not dangerous. Connor believes Elliott's experience and scrambling ability will be too much, even if Elliott is emotionally affected by his divorce.
Daniel leans Tim Elliott in a three-round fight, citing Elliott's experience and the fact that Altamirano is a slow starter. He notes that if it were five rounds, he'd pick Altamirano, but in three rounds Elliott's early pressure and wrestling should carry him. He acknowledges the outside drama but doesn't think it affects the fight.
Jacob picks Elliott, believing he does everything a little better than Altamirano. He notes Elliott's gas tank and ability to outwork opponents. Jacob is concerned about Altamirano's power but thinks Elliott's wrestling and pressure will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's emotional state could be a factor but still picks him.
Elliott has personal motivation and a grappling-heavy style that will exploit Altamirano's questionable takedown defense. Altamirano has a good kicking game but struggles in the smaller cage. Elliott will land multiple takedowns, control positions, and win a decision.
Paul picks Tim Elliott but is not confident. He notes Elliott's wrestling advantage and Altamirano's suspect takedown defense. However, Elliott's recent comments about seeking a KO and doing wild stuff raise concerns about game plan discipline. Paul also mentions Elliott's age (38) and personal issues. He thinks the under 2.5 rounds at +215 is interesting due to narrative, but he's not fully sold on Elliott's approach.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott, noting he has a win over Tagir Ulanbekov and has fought the best in the flyweight division, including competitive decisions with top fighters. He criticizes Victor Altamirano for being technically not good, though dangerous with crazy shots. He expects Elliott to outpoint and frustrate Altamirano to a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Elliott, viewing this as a levels matchup. He notes that Altamirano is tough but has poor defense and limited technique, while Elliott's scrambling and wrestling should dominate. Zane acknowledges the personal turmoil in Elliott's life (divorce) but believes his anger could fuel a strong performance.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 1 | 79 of 179 | 44% | 117 of 227 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 90 of 186 | 48% | 111 of 212 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 1 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 44 of 94 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 38 of 78 | 48% | 38 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 23 of 52 | 44% | 44 of 76 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 21 of 45 | 46% | 26 of 50 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 29 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 47 of 84 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 3:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 79 of 179 | 44% | 30 of 113 | 15 of 26 | 34 of 40 | 64 of 160 | 15 of 19 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 90 of 186 | 48% | 70 of 162 | 15 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 65 of 158 | 23 of 26 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 36 of 82 | 43% | 16 of 52 | 6 of 14 | 14 of 16 | 31 of 76 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 38 of 78 | 48% | 30 of 68 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 73 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 23 of 52 | 44% | 9 of 35 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 40 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 21 of 45 | 46% | 18 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 35 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 20 of 45 | 44% | 5 of 26 | 4 of 5 | 11 of 14 | 19 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tagir Ulanbekov | 31 of 63 | 49% | 22 of 53 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 19 of 50 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s the U.S. vs. Russia up now in the flyweight division, as former title challenger Elliott (17-12-1, 6-10 UFC) will try to become the second fighter to beat Ulanbekov (14-1, 2-0 UFC) as a pro. Having laced up his shoes, referee Chris Tognoni is now prepared for what could be a thrilling, fast-paced grappling affair for as long as it lasts. The gloves get touched, and Elliott swings with a spinning back kick that is well out of the way. Elliott turns through to score a leg kick, and Ulanbekov dings him up with two jabs and a one-two. Elliott keeps his hands down, and Ulanbekov cracks him with a right hand and follows it with a front kick. Elliott ignores the strikes to wade forward, throwing unorthodox strikes like stomp kicks to the knee and whipping uppercuts. The American charges ahead and secures a quick takedown, and Ulanbekov fights his way back to his knees. Elliott blasts him in the face with a knee, and it is unclear if Ulanbekov’s knee was off the ground as to whether it was illegal or legal, but it appeared that Ulanbekov’s knee was down. Despite this, we continue, and Elliott shouts at his man to come on and fight him. Elliott blitzes forward, landing punches and low kicks, and evading the strikes with odd, bobbing head movement. Ulanbekov replies with a punch to the chest, and he checks a kick but gets smacked with a left hand. Ulanbekov is much more composed with jabs, but as he flicks one out, the ex-title challenger darts forward and lands another takedown. The Russian is not down for more than one second before exploding back up, and Elliott is quick to chase him down and land another. Ulanbekov sweeps him after a wide scramble, and he gets back to his feet. Tognoni calls time as Elliott sticks his hands out to strike, and he warns Elliott from keeping his fingers outstretched while Elliott protests. The fight resumes, and Elliott lands a front kick to the body and a low kick. Elliott dips a few punches, eats a couple more, and slings a left hook that slides off the side of Ulanbekov’s head. Elliott tries to step in with an elbow, and as he does, Ulanbekov drills him with a few punches. Elliott laughs them off, keeps his self-described movement awkward, and he turns his hips while launching a massive left hand. The strike sends Ulanbekov crashing down to the mat, and he appears to get back up after the flash knockdown only into the hands of Elliott, who takes him down. Ulanbekov powers his way back up, gets popped with another questionable knee when he was standing, and he starts talking to his corner. The wild and crazy round ends in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The gloves get touched to start the second round, and Elliott comes out with a brief swarm of punches. Ulanbekov is energized, and he returns fire with a salvo of his own. Elliott just misses with a huge overhand right, and he windmills a left that follows that blows Ulanbekov’s hair back. The Russian mixes things up with a takedown try, and Elliott sprawls well and pops right back up. Ulanbekov gets off a few right hands, appearing to have started to time the head movement, and he ignores the counters from Elliott to score a hard right hand. When Elliott marches forward, Ulanbekov hits a double that puts the former title challenger on his seat momentarily. Elliott scoots his way to the wall to power back up, and when Ulanbekov tries to secure a mat return, Elliott scrambles to wind up on top. As they both get back up to their feet, Elliott lands a few punches that make Ulanbekov blow his nose out. Ulanbekov drills Elliott in the jaw with a right hand, and Elliott comes forward to clinch. Elliott grabs his foe’s glove and cracks Ulanbekov with a punch from his other hand, and Ulanbekov protests to draw a warning from Tognoni. They both try to set up a takedown after this confusion, and a furious scramble ensues where Elliott is able to take top position and even snag mount for a couple seconds. Ulanbekov fights his way back up, and he lifts Elliott in the air but cannot wrangle him, as the former title challenger circles around to take top position until Ulanbekov bucks him off. They tie up, and start belting one another with short elbows and punches. Elliott grabs Ulanbekov’s glove again and tries to slug him in the face, but Ulanbekov is able to evade the blow and he shoots for a double that plows Elliott in the wall. Ulanbekov holds on tight, not letting Elliott get space, and ignoring when Elliott starts chattering at him. Elliott fights off one takedown, and he throws up a guillotine right when the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 3
The last round begins with no glove touch, as replays show several uncalled illegal moves that Elliott got away with in the previous round, all while Ulanbekov’s coach Khabib Nurmagomedov is incensed. Dundasso is alive and well in the Octagon tonight. The action starts off with Elliott attacking, working the body with kicks and a few punches. Ulanbekov replies with a single crisp elbow, and he backs off and marks Elliott up with a one-two. A cut opens up on the corner of Ulanbekov’s eye, but it does not appear to be from a punch but rather from when they clacked heads when they were tied up. They clinch up again just long enough for Ulanbekov to work the body with several knees, and Ulanbekov hops back and dives forward with a double-leg takedown. Elliott sprawls, using the fence as his ally, but Ulanbekov lifts his leg off the ground to drop Elliott to a knee. Ulanbekov tries to elevate the ex-title challenger again, to no avail, as Elliott is able to get his feet beneath him to keep himself upright. With his hands clasping Elliott from behind, Ulanbekov gets off several emphatic knees to the back of Elliott’s thigh. Ulanbekov hops on to the back, circling over to get one hook in. As Elliott tries to escape, he leans over and Ulanbekov crawls on to his back to take it and secure a body triangle. From there, the Russian attacks a rear-naked choke, and Elliott grimaces but grits it out. Elliott legally fights the hands, holding on to the wrist instead of the inseam of a glove, and he stops the choke but cannot stop punches connecting to the side of his head. Ulanbekov keeps his body triangle tight, landing unanswered shots, and he pounds away until the final bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulanbekov (29-28 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Tagir Ulanbekov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Ulanbekov but thinks the odds are too wide. He notes Ulanbekov is a dominant wrestler but has been taken down and outstruck in the UFC. He thinks Elliott's experience and jiu-jitsu could make it closer. He would make Ulanbekov a -150 favorite, not -300.
Big Brady picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes that Ulanbekov is younger, longer, and has good grappling and submission skills. Brady points out that Tim Elliott has been submitted five times and has not beaten a high-level opponent in years. He believes Ulanbekov will win the grappling exchanges and eventually submit Elliott. Brady also mentions that Elliott's best wins are against lower-tier fighters, while Ulanbekov represents a step up.
Cody leans Elliott as a live underdog, noting Ulanbekov has not looked impressive in the UFC and has cardio and top control issues. He thinks Elliott's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability could cause problems. However, he is wary of Elliott's cardio and the 'Dagestan father's plan' narrative, so he calls it a dog-or-pass.
Daniel Levi picks Tagir Ulanbekov to win, possibly by submission. He criticizes Tim Elliott's attitude, cardio, and recent performances. He believes Ulanbekov's relentless takedown style and Dagestani pressure will wear Elliott down. He notes that Elliott has been submitted multiple times and that Ulanbekov has a mounted guillotine threat. He predicts Ulanbekov will submit Elliott or win a dominant decision.
Ulanbekov has good grappling and scrambling, but his fights are often close. Elliott is a tricky veteran who could pull off an upset if he's in shape. Ulanbekov should win most of the grappling exchanges and get top position, but Elliott's hip tosses and awkward style could cause problems. The over 2.5 rounds is a better play than betting Ulanbekov straight.
Paul picks Ulanbekov but expects a dicey fight. He notes Ulanbekov's wrestling is good but his top control is not dominant, and Elliott is tough to hold down. Paul thinks Ulanbekov's takedowns and pace could win rounds, but Elliott's scrambling and volume make it close. He calls it a stay-away but leans Ulanbekov.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott as a big underdog over Tagir Ulanbekov, expressing surprise at the odds. He criticizes Ulanbekov's performances, calling him the 'runt of the litter' from Dagestan, and notes he struggled against short-notice opponent Alan Nascimento. He believes Elliott's pace, grappling, and chin will overwhelm Ulanbekov, predicting a close 29-28 split decision where Elliott out-hustles him. He mentions Elliott's experience and Ulanbekov's red flags like razor-close fights and gifted decisions.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 70 of 215 | 32% | 105 of 255 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 64 of 109 | 58% | 128 of 176 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 24 of 62 | 38% | 26 of 64 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 29 of 101 | 28% | 31 of 105 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 31 of 56 | 55% | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 0 | 17 of 52 | 32% | 48 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 14 of 24 | 58% | 74 of 87 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matheus Nicolau | 70 of 215 | 32% | 39 of 160 | 11 of 28 | 20 of 27 | 62 of 207 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 64 of 109 | 58% | 28 of 63 | 31 of 38 | 5 of 8 | 64 of 107 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matheus Nicolau | 24 of 62 | 38% | 10 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Tim Elliott | 19 of 29 | 65% | 9 of 16 | 9 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Matheus Nicolau | 29 of 101 | 28% | 19 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 26 of 98 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 31 of 56 | 55% | 12 of 31 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 31 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Matheus Nicolau | 17 of 52 | 32% | 10 of 36 | 4 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tim Elliott | 14 of 24 | 58% | 7 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Flyweights with energy for days come up in what the UFC calls the “featured fight of the night,” as former title challenger Elliott (17-11-1, 6-9 UFC) tries to make it three in a row against Brazil’s Nicolau (16-2-1, 4-1 UFC). Referee Jason Herzog has his work cut out for him in what should be a speedy one from start to finish, and the gloves are touched before they are traded furiously. Nicolau is the first to engage with a heavy leg kick, and Elliott runs after him while lifting his leg in the air to avoid another such kick. He sprints forward, throws a right hand, and backs off to start up his herky-jerky style. Elliott points at his opponent, shouts, and then pump-fakes before landing a left hand. He follows Nicolau around the cage, and they clash heads. Elliott swarm him with a few punches, and when Nicolau falls down to the ground, Elliott fires off a soccer kick that just misses being illegal, and instead connects to the body. Elliott allows his man to stand, and points at him again for landing a successful strike. Nicolau sticks Elliott with a punch and moves away when Elliott comes at him with a standing back fist and a few more unorthodox strikes. Nicolau just comes up short with a spinning kick, and he gets kicked with a push kick to the knee. Elliott hops at him with one leg air in the air, and Nicolau appears a little confused by the antics of his opponent. Elliott, hands down, throws up a head kick and avoids the counter. Elliott charges ahead with a right hand and a diving takedown, and when he in unsuccessful in his first attempt, he manages to ground Nicolau on his second try. The Brazilian pops back up and takes several knees to the gluteus maximus, until Elliott spins around and pursues a takedown. The fighter that some call “Awkward” presses Nicolau into the wire when he cannot trip him down, and the pace slows down significantly as they jockey for position. Nicolau pushes off to break free, and Elliott stands in front of him with his hands at his waist and chin left out in the open. Nicolau pops him with a strike, and he glances with a left hand. The distance is too great for Nicolau to close in on him, but he does score a pair of hooks before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
The flyweights are ready to scrap to start off the second round, and Elliott ducks a few looping punches so that he can go after a takedown. He does not ground Nicolau, but he takes his back and pushes him against the wall. Elliott gets blasted with a right hand, and it shakes him up as he falls towards the cage. His antics and lack of defense could be an extreme liability should Nicolau continue to find his chin, and Nicolau is starting to pick up on his oddball movements. Nicolau marks Elliott up with punches, and he shucks Elliott off of him when the American tries to engage. They clash heads, but no serious damage comes from it. Elliott swings heavily for punches, and he points around to various places on the floor as Nicolau ignores it. The Brazilian tags Elliott with a few punches, and he decides to aim to the body when Elliott moves his head out of the way. Elliott rushes in for a takedown try, clinching Nicolau up and pushing him into the fence. Like earlier in the round, Nicolau stops it and pushes off, where he can work the body again. Elliott’s midsection has turned into a heavy bag as his defense is firmly out the window, as Nicolau tees off on him without taking anything else coming back at him. The takedown entries are unsuccessful as Nicolau ducks out of the way and showboats a little in response. Elliott grins at him, gets punched in the face, and continues to wobble and hop around strangely. When Nicolau drills Elliott in the chin with a right hand, Elliott smiles and nods, but his subsequent takedown try comes up short. Elliott takes a few more body shots, and his elbow drops to defend these strikes. The American marches forward relentlessly, only to take punches and a head kick. When Elliott lands one, Nicolau strings three together and stuffs a takedown attempt as they drop to their knees. Nicolau stays away until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau
Round 3
They clap hands to start off the last round, and Nicolau comes out firing with a blitzing combination. Nicolau blocks a high kick and watches as Elliott awkwardly hops towards him with his leg in the air. Elliott stings his opponent with a left hand, and Nicolau gives him one back and then another for good measure. Elliott crowds Nicolau and cracks him with a left hand, and he backs off just in time to avoid a home run punch. An effective front kick touches the chin of Nicolau, who avoids three more that come at him one after the other. Elliott punches his way towards a takedown of some sort, and Nicolau works the body only to get pressed into the wire. Elliott begins to knee the thigh while Nicolau is intent on breaking apart, and after a few right hands. The hopping around of Elliott leads to his liver getting pounded by the Brazilian, and when his leg is in the air, Nicolau blasts through to hit a double leg takedown of his own. Elliott closes with a high guard, and Nicolau lifts him up and slams him down to break the grip. A few punches from Nicolau land behind the head, and he adjusts his angle as Elliott turns his head. Nicolau continues to lift Elliott up and slam him on the mat again and again until the tight grip that the American holds is released. Nicolau lands some ground-and-pound until Elliott closes his guard again, and Herzog asks them to keep working. Elliott holds on for dear life, until he doesn’t, and Nicolau lands some shots. The Brazilian punches his way out, but Elliott kicks off and gets back to his feet. Elliott tries to get his foe to throw down with seconds to go before the final bell, but Nicolau largely defends himself and backs away to cruise to what he thinks is a decision win.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nicolau (29-28 Nicolau)
The Official Result
Matheus Nicolau def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Tim Elliott, loving his grit, pressure, and volume. He thinks Elliott's dirty style and grappling can overwhelm Nicolau. He notes Elliott's recent wins and considers the money line at plus 167. He acknowledges Elliott's tendency to make stupid decisions but feels he's on a rebirth.
Cody picks Nicolau confidently, noting Elliott's cardio issues and tendency to fade after 7-8 minutes. He points out that Elliott's wins are against low-level competition who have been cut, while Nicolau is a young, improving prospect with elite training. He believes Nicolau's skills and durability will be too much for Elliott.
Daniel Levi favors Matheus Nicolau due to his cleaner hands, black belt jiu-jitsu, and 100% takedown defense, which he attributes to training at Nova União. He acknowledges Tim Elliott's improved cardio and scrambles but believes Nicolau is the more talented fighter in all areas. His only concern is Nicolau's chin, but he notes Elliott is not a knockout threat, so he picks Nicolau to win.
Jacob picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter. He thinks this is a changing of the guard fight. He initially thought Tim Elliott would be the lock of the week but changed his mind after seeing Nicolau's girlfriend is still with him. He believes Nicolau's skills will prevail.
The host confidently picks Matheus Nicolau, calling him the better fighter everywhere. He praises Nicolau's technical striking and BJJ, and expects him to win striking exchanges and potentially submit Elliott when Elliott gets wild. He notes Elliott's awkward style but believes Nicolau can nullify his takedowns and find a submission in the third round.
Paul picks Nicolau, citing Elliott's improved cardio under James Krause but still limited. He notes Nicolau is on a different level, with wins over rising prospects. He believes Elliott's best days are behind him and Nicolau's youth and skill set will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Matheus Nicolau to win by close 29-28 decision. He trusts Nicolau's grappling and believes Elliott's only path is takedowns, but Nicolau's grappling is good enough to defend. He notes Nicolau's strong regional record and power at flyweight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 25 of 44 | 56% | 91 of 120 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 13:19 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 13 of 25 | 52% | 22 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 6 of 14 | 42% | 23 of 33 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 24 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:35 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 44 of 55 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 25 of 44 | 56% | 14 of 27 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 17 | 6 of 9 | 15 of 18 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 13 of 25 | 52% | 7 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 6 of 14 | 42% | 1 of 6 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 7 of 13 | 53% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 7 of 10 | 70% | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 12 of 20 | 60% | 9 of 16 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 12 |
| Jordan Espinosa | 5 of 9 | 55% | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Two exciting flyweights cap off the early preliminary card, prefaced by a battle for the ages between outstanding walkout music choices, when former title challenger Elliott (16-11-1, 5-9 UFC) takes on Espinosa (15-8, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC). Trying to keep up with what should be a fast-paced affair is referee Mark Smith, who bears witness to no glove touch before the madness begins. Elliott blocks a head kick that zooms at him, and he dodges a second one as well. Elliott charges in and gets shoved over, but he recovers himself to press in for a takedown. Espinosa stands him up and gets pressed into the fence, and Elliott embraces the grind as he threatens with trips but cannot set anything up. They separate, and Elliott chops at the calf and kicks the chest, but he blocks a head kick that comes right back. Espinosa scores a big left hand that prompts a takedown attempt from the former title challenger. Elliott cannot secure one, and gets off a shoulder strike and a knee to the thigh, but Espinosa pushes away and separates. Espinosa swings and misses with a big right hand, and when he fires off a head kick, Elliott barely dodges it and bullrushes Espinosa to the ground. Elliott gets a hook in for back control as Espinosa on one knee in a tough position trapped against the fence. Elliott sneaks his way to take full back control, and the only thing stopping him is the cage behind Espinosa. Elliott softens his foe up with several punches to aim for a choke attempt, and Elliott flirts with the choke while pounding on “The Gamer.” Espinosa rolls to his back and Elliott sucks his opponent’s legs out, so Espinosa latches on to a kimura to pursue a sweep. Elliott keeps Espinosa trapped on his back and ties up his own hammerlock, but Espinosa breaks the grip to end the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Round 2
Elliott crashes forward to begin the round, throwing a left hand before diving down into a takedown attempt. Espinosa thwarts it, backs off, throws a head kick, and gets shoved to his back. Espinosa scrambles wildly and kicks off, pulling himself back to his feet using the fence. Espinosa tries to get off a one-two, and Elliott easily drags him back to the ground. Using a half guard, Espinosa keeps a tight leg scissor on Elliott’s leg to keep him there. The former challenger breaks through to sit up and start hacking down with elbows. Espinosa scrambles but gets put flat on his back, and Elliott grinds out his adversary while landing sporadic strikes. A frustrated Espinosa scoots to the fence and to one knee, but Elliott is on him and has one hook in to take the back. Elliott uses his forearm to squeeze Espinosa’s face, and Espinosa leans over and falls into a rear-naked choke attempt. Elliott cannot get his hands locked, as Espinosa breaks the grip, but Espinosa is trapped in defense-only mode. Elliott smothers his foe and starts dropping down punches, and Espinosa rolls to his knees as he continues to take punches to the side of the head. Espinosa tries to use two-on-one wrist control to sweep Elliott, but Elliott easily pulls his arm free and hops on top to elbow Espinosa in the face repeatedly. Elliott starts talking trash from his dominant position, threatening and using big words that get by the censors to intimidate him, possibly using the words "woman beater" as he shouts at Espinosa. The round ends with Elliott grinding his forearm on Espinosa’s neck.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Elliott
Round 3
Smith warns Elliott on his language between rounds, and Elliott is amped up and ready to go wild. When the round begins, Elliott advances recklessly and nearly winds up taking a flying knee on the chin. Elliott defends against it and hits a takedown with ease, where he takes a half guard position as Espinosa is already stuck flat on his back. Espinosa rolls to his side and gets punched in the side repeatedly, so Elliott returns to mount and throws strikes from on top. Espinosa tries to give him a few back, leading Elliott to elbow him several times. Espinosa defends off his back with a few elbows, and he slashes the top of Elliott’s head open and starts an immediate flow of blood. Elliott bleeds directly and intentionally into Espinosa’s eyes, blinding his foe and grinding his head into Espinosa’s. Espinosa pulls for an armbar and Elliott stands up to free himself, and he may be slippery because of the massive blood flow. Elliott climbs back on top, where he sits in side control and sets up an arm-triangle choke. The former title challenger continues to rack up control time as Espinosa is practically completely defenseless, as Elliott aims for another arm-triangle choke. Espinosa links his toes in the cage to push off, and Smith stops him from doing this. Elliott smashes his man repeatedly with elbows and punches at the 10-second clapper, trying to finish the fight in a fury. Elliott even attempts an axe kick to the body – stomps to the body are banned in some jurisdictions – as the two go wild in the final seconds. The fight ends with no reconciliation between the two, and we have gone the distance for the first time this evening.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-27 Elliott)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Elliott (30-26 Elliott)
The Official Result
Tim Elliott def. Jordan Espinosa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-25)
Big Brady picks Tim Elliott, relying on Elliott's wrestling advantage (4 takedowns per 15 minutes) and Espinosa's questionable 90% takedown defense against weak competition. He notes Espinosa has been submitted 4 times and has underwhelming UFC wins. He predicts a submission win for Elliott but admits he doesn't love the pick.
Daniel picks Jordan Espinosa to win a decision, citing his speed and athleticism. He notes that if Espinosa stays focused for 15 minutes, he should win, but acknowledges that a finish would favor Tim Elliott.
Elliott's awkward movement and unorthodox style could trouble Espinosa, who struggles against grapplers. The host likes Elliott's submission threat and predicts a second-round submission, but is not confident enough to bet himself.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott over Jordan Espinosa. He notes Elliott has fought better competition and shown more grit, while Espinosa tends to fade. He believes Elliott will pressure, clinch, and win by 29-28 unanimous decision.
Steve Erceg - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 0 | 90 of 261 | 34% | 93 of 265 | 2 of 11 | 18% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 136 of 254 | 53% | 136 of 254 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 40 of 93 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 55 | 43% | 24 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 27 of 78 | 34% | 28 of 79 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 47 of 85 | 55% | 47 of 85 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 0 | 24 of 92 | 26% | 25 of 93 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 65 of 114 | 57% | 65 of 114 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tim Elliott | 90 of 261 | 34% | 44 of 191 | 11 of 27 | 35 of 43 | 87 of 255 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 136 of 254 | 53% | 122 of 236 | 14 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 129 of 245 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tim Elliott | 39 of 91 | 42% | 20 of 57 | 5 of 15 | 14 of 19 | 39 of 89 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 24 of 55 | 43% | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Tim Elliott | 27 of 78 | 34% | 10 of 56 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 14 | 24 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 47 of 85 | 55% | 44 of 82 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 44 of 81 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Tim Elliott | 24 of 92 | 26% | 14 of 78 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 10 | 24 of 91 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 65 of 114 | 57% | 57 of 102 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 64 of 112 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Elliott (21-13; 10-11 UFC), one of the flyweight division’s top spoilers over the last several years, looks to take that role once again in this featured clash with Perth’s own, “Astro Boy” Erceg (13-4; 4-3 UFC). Lukasz Bosacki is the referee on duty. Both men are in orthodox stance and Elliott immediately starts with his oddball striking attack, switching stances, hanging his hands at his waist and stabbing out with Jon Jones-style oblique kicks at Erceg’s lead leg. The contrast could not be much greater, as Erceg comes forward in his classic, composed upright stance. Through the first 90 seconds, the resulting collisions are sporadic and awkward; Erceg slides forward but refuses to be drawn into a wild firefight, while Elliott lands sporadic strikes but can’t string anything together. A little past the halfway mark, Erceg lands a clean one-two that represents the best offense by either man thus far. Erceg appears to be growing more and more comfortable, but Elliott catches him with a sweeping right hand that hurts him. Again, Elliott can’t follow up, and Erceg recovers. Erceg places a couple of stiff jabs on Elliott’s chin, and takes a glancing hook in return. Elliott changes levels and gets a fast takedown against the fence, but Erceg gets right back up. They separate, meet in the center of the cage and Elliott gets another takedown right after the 10-second clapper. The horn sounds. 10-9 Elliott.
Round 2
Elliott is switching stances constantly as they meet in the middle of the cage for Round 2. Erceg again pursues in disciplined fashion, sliding forward and cutting off the cage while Elliott springs in and out of range, spins and throws off-balance single strikes. Elliott is talking, but a minute in, it’s Erceg landing the cleaner, sharper punches. Elliott’s kicks are effective, landing to Erceg’s lead left leg from both sides, mixing in some body work. Elliott changes levels and grounds the Australian with a double-leg, but Erceg pops back to his feet instantly. They disengage and meet against in the center of the Octagon, and it’s Erceg launching a takedown attempt, which Elliott defends. Erceg gets the better of a couple of pocket exchanges, then gets a clean takedown in the middle of the cage. Elliott escapes to his feet and scores a takedown of his own. Erceg escapes to his feet with a minute left and tags Elliott with two unblocked punches. Elliott is hurt but far from out of it, marching forward and swinging big. Erceg gives ground, plants and returns fire with more accurate punches to the head. It’s still competitive, but the momentum has definitely swung the other way as the horn sounds. 10-9 Erceg.
Round 3
Erceg walks down Elliott, who comes up just short with a superman punch. Erceg’s jab continues to define the fight, as he can’t seem to miss with it. The jab is scoring for Erceg, answering everything Elliott throws at him and preventing the American from building any kind of momentum. Elliott hacks away at Erceg’s left leg with two hard low kicks. Erceg suddenly launches a big high kick that glances off of Elliott’s guard, then goes right back to work with his bread-and-butter jab and right cross. Elliott is still in Erceg’s face at the midpoint of the round, coming forward with big swinging punches, and Erceg is calmly sniping him on the counter every single time. Elliott drops levels and runs Erceg all the way across the cage with a double-leg, depositing him on his butt at the base of the fence. Erceg gets right back up and Elliott disengages rather than keep wrestling. When they meet again it’s more of the same: Erceg slipping big telegraphed attacks from Elliott and returning fire with ultra-clean punches. The horn sounds on what was, by the end, a quietly dominant performance for Steve Erceg. 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg).
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Tim Elliott via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.
Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.
Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.
Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.
The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.
Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 39 of 82 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 47 of 89 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 4 of 14 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 17 of 32 | 53% | 26 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0:46 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 18 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 12 of 25 | 48% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 17 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 53 | 37% | 10 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 43 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 35 of 74 | 47% | 20 of 53 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 17 of 32 | 53% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 11 of 25 | 44% | 4 of 18 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 12 of 25 | 48% | 7 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 6 of 17 | 35% | 4 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Ode' Osbourne | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, emphasizing that Erceg is an accomplished wrestler who should use takedowns against Ode' Osbourne, who has poor takedown defense. He criticizes Erceg for not wrestling in recent fights. If Erceg wrestles, he should win; if he strikes, he could lose. Angelo hopes Erceg has learned from his mistakes.
Big Brady is confident in Steve Erceg, noting his losses came only to champions or top contenders. He believes Erceg is better everywhere, especially in grappling, and that Osbourne has poor takedown defense, cardio, and durability. Brady predicts Erceg will submit Osbourne in the second round.
Connor picks Erceg because he is a more structured, consistent fighter than Osbourne, who is fast but dysfunctional and gasses easily. He notes that Erceg's defense is a concern but that he manages distance well when on the front foot, and that Osbourne's tendency to jump into the pocket will lead to takedowns and grappling where Erceg has the advantage. Connor acknowledges the southpaw question but believes Erceg will handle it.
The host believes Erceg is the better fighter with superior Muay Thai and a BJJ black belt. He acknowledges Osbourne's speed and power shown in his last fight, which is a concern as Erceg has been dropped before. However, he thinks Erceg will dial it in to avoid a four-fight losing streak and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, calling him a more well-rounded mixed martial artist than Ronaldo Rodriguez, who beat Osbourne. He believes Erceg has better chin, submission defense, and IQ. He predicts a 30-27 decision or a third-round finish, dismissing Osbourne's chances unless he catches Erceg early.
Zane picks Erceg, noting that Osbourne is a dark horse who can deliver a top flyweight result but is inherently dysfunctional. He highlights Osbourne's poor takedown defense (65%) and tendency to gas, while Erceg is tough, has good grappling, and doesn't make many mistakes going forward. Zane is concerned about Erceg's lack of experience against southpaws but thinks Osbourne's style will force wrestling, which favors Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 0 | 89 of 176 | 50% | 95 of 182 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 116 of 279 | 41% | 119 of 282 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 21 of 40 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 25 of 68 | 36% | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 27 of 48 | 56% | 27 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 50 | 40% | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 19 of 35 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 25 of 57 | 43% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 22 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 19 of 56 | 33% | 21 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brandon Moreno | 89 of 176 | 50% | 59 of 138 | 18 of 25 | 12 of 13 | 87 of 174 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 116 of 279 | 41% | 90 of 237 | 11 of 24 | 15 of 18 | 115 of 278 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brandon Moreno | 21 of 40 | 52% | 14 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 25 of 68 | 36% | 18 of 57 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brandon Moreno | 21 of 46 | 45% | 14 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 27 of 48 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brandon Moreno | 10 of 24 | 41% | 3 of 15 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 20 of 50 | 40% | 16 of 42 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brandon Moreno | 19 of 35 | 54% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 34 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 25 of 57 | 43% | 19 of 49 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brandon Moreno | 18 of 31 | 58% | 13 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 19 of 56 | 33% | 17 of 50 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Moreno (-238), Erceg (+195)
Round 1
The only ranked matchup—meaning, fight between two fighters with numbers next to their names—is in the main event, and it should be a fun one. Former champ Moreno (22-8-2, 10-5-2 UFC) turned things around with a decision over Amir Albazi a few months ago, while Erceg (12-3, 3-2 UFC) has still not shaken the dust off after unsuccessfully vying for the flyweight strap. The triumphant man may position himself better towards another championship opportunity, while the defeated’s stock will take a serious hit. Referee Herb Dean brings the two 125ers to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and have the two bump their fists. They do. It’s on with the show. Jabs are outstretched to one another’s general direction, and Moreno commits first with a looping left hand. When the first misses, he fires it again and bangs it into Erceg’s temple. Moreno gets behind his jab, and he checks a kick aimed at his front leg. The lunging left gets through again, and he follows it with a left to the liver and a kick to the same spot. Moreno’s left side continues to get through, as he again blitzes with a left. Erceg sticks him with a few jabs and a right hand, and the low kick at the end of the combo is checked. Moreno pecks out a jab and a left hook, and Erceg walks him down to throw hands for a moment before splitting off. Moreno’s leaping left hand sends Erceg staggering off to the side, and he gathers his thoughts and pins a few punches on the raised guard. When Moreno’s left is established, he hurls out a right to surprise his opponent. Erceg drills him in the ribs with a pair of punches, and he comes up an inch or two shy of a snappy front kick. Chants in support of Moreno practically do not cease, with the crowd excited to celebrate each and every moment of success for their fighter. Moreno gets in again, and the audience booms in delight. Erceg gets off jabs and low kicks, but the power is firmly in the favor of the former champ. Erceg sneaks in a left shovel uppercut, and Moreno sits down with a body kick in response. Erceg flashes his jab a few more times, planting it at the top of the head. Moreno clacks him with another big overhand right, and a second shakes him up and forces him to jump away and shake it out. Moreno uses the opportunity to chop down the front leg, and jabs are where the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 2
Erceg rushes out of his corner to take the center of the Octagon, where he paws away jabs from his opponent and pitches a head kick up high. Moreno blocks and blasts Erceg with a right hand, and Erceg scoots away to not stay on the gunnery range. They crash together, and Erceg drives home a right hand and steps in with a knee. Erceg slips a punch to deliver an uppercut on the chin, and he tries to skirt away but takes two nasty leg kicks. Moreno steps in to fake like he will kick a third time, and goes up top with a left hand. Moreno dings Erceg with a second left, thwarting any attempt for Erceg to tie things up. Moreno times a counter right to knock Erceg back from a kick, and both men chain solid combinations together on one another. Moreno kicks the leg, and Erceg peppers out a jab. Moreno’s own jab allows him to get in and get off two left hooks, and he ducks down to mess with Erceg by grabbing his ankle. Erceg regains his balance and flicks the jab out, and he just misses a right hand and rushes away but gets kicked on the way out. Moreno drills Erceg with two clean hooks, and Erceg stands straight up and wonders what the number was of that bus. When he blinks out the damage, Erceg sticks his fists to the guard of his foe a few times. Moreno beats his man to the punch with a jab, and he lets a front kick go by so he can rip a left hand up top. Moreno capitalizes on the success with a low kick, and both men score single heavy hooks. Chins have been tested and answered the call well, with Erceg trying his foe’s out with a few punches and a high kick. Erceg hits a fade-back right hand, and the round closes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
The round opens with Moreno faking to reach down for a level change. Erceg is not buying it, and jabs him in the face. Moreno lunges forward with a left hook, and he raises his guard just in time to block a kick. Moreno hits air on a pair of looping punches, with Erceg starting to see the power strikes coming. Moreno jabs the body and ignores a front kick that goes by, bobbing and weaving to move with jabs and not take anything flush. Erceg drives his opponent back with an uppercut, and Moreno reaches and barely lands at the end of his right hand. Erceg is slicker and more elusive than the last two rounds, but he still gets reached with kicks that are actively targeting him. Moreno flirts with checking kicks when Erceg kicks low, and he kicks the former challenger in the side. Erceg plants his fists on Moreno’s nose, kicking him in the front leg to mix things up. The fighters slip when trying to dodge one another, and then regain their footing as Erceg plants his feet to put a few punches together. Erceg sets up a knee to the body and backs off to avoid the counter, and he surprises Moreno with a front kick up the middle. Moreno fakes high to kick low, and he reaches with a few left hooks that continue to miss the mark. Erceg is more content to touch while Moreno loads up, but neither man is connecting at a particular high volume. One solid strike from Erceg comes in the form of a knee to the body, and as the round time expires, Moreno shrugs his shoulders.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 4
Having reached the championship rounds, the two pick up where they left off with jab attacks and kicks. Erceg aims to split the guard while Moreno wants to dig beneath or around it. Moreno successfully loops a single left around the defense of his opponent, and he pops Erceg with a second to force Erceg to stumble away. The Aussie is no worse for wear, wide-eyed to watch out for Moreno walking him down. Erceg forces Moreno to stay honest, keeping the jab in his face when not backing off to defend himself. Erceg times a front kick on the belly, hurting Moreno for a moment as the Mexican staggers back and forth confusedly. Moreno bites down on his mouthpiece and lunges into action, landing flush until Erceg kicks him upside the head. Another front kick from Erceg gives him a moment to breathe, as Moreno bears down on him looping heavy shots at him. Erceg jabs, follows the jabs and has to guard the oncoming fire from the former champ. Moreno starts talking to him, and Erceg grins when taking a few punches on the chin. Moreno goes high and then to the ribs, with his left hook drawing blood on the side of Erceg’s right eye. Erceg pays it no mind and kicks Moreno in the melon. Moreno laughs it off and swings back, and he keeps talking while throwing hands. Erceg defends from an overhand right, and he has his head kick pushed back while Moreno chases him around the cage. Moreno jabs the body, and the fans in the building start booing the fighters for their lack of heavy engagement after three rounds. Moreno shoots in for a single to quiet the masses momentarily, and he pulls Erceg to his seat and forces Erceg to scramble right before the bell. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno
Round 5
The crowd is largely on its feet as the fighters signal to them to give it up. The athletes are all smiles, and they get down to business by punching one another in the face in the final period of the fight. Moreno loads up on big right and lefts, and he lets Erceg try to do the same so he can make the Aussie hit air. Moreno sways and moves from a combo to let fly a left hand, torqueing his body in unusual ways to keep from being struck. Moreno winds up with a nasty leg kick, and a second is checked. Moreno jumps forward and possibly goes for a level change, but Erceg is having none of it and puts his hands in the former champ’s face. Erceg lifts up a kick that bangs into the raised guard, and when Moreno stings him, Erceg slips back. Moreno charges, ripping punches and hammering Erceg with a high kick. Erceg shells up and bounces off the fencing to reset, but he finds that Moreno is still right in front of him like always. An Erceg head kick mildly bumps into the guard, and Moreno reaches him with a right hook. Doubled jabs from the former beltholder lead to a right hand, and Erceg steels himself and drills Moreno in the chin. Erceg pushes out his jab, and Moreno does not budge an inch even when tagged. Moreno gives a bit of ground to lure Erceg in towards him, and when Erceg does not bite, he meanders forward. Erceg looses a head kick, and Moreno grabs it and hurls the former title challenger to his back. With 50 seconds to go, Moreno looks for a guard pass, positioning Erceg in an uncomfortable posture nearly doing a split on his back. Moreno successfully leaps over to the side with seconds to spare, and he jams down elbows until the horn concludes this five-round entanglement. Moreno stands and screams, waving off the doctor and pacing back and forth in anticipation of the result. Barring something unusual, Mexican fighters will end the night way ahead of foreign adversaries. Meanwhile, Moreno is about to pick up his first win in the Octagon on home soil. The former champion, who is now officially on a win streak, calls for an opportunity to compete at UFC 320 in Guadalajara, Mexico, this September. If he makes it on that event, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Moreno (49-46 Moreno)
The Official Result
Brandon Moreno def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 49-46)
Connor argues that Steve Erceg has been rushed into tough fights, facing Pantoja, Kai Kara-France, and now Moreno without proper development. He highlights Erceg's defensive boxing flaws, particularly his lack of head movement and tendency to overcommit. Connor believes Moreno's experience and technical superiority will exploit these weaknesses, leading to a Moreno win.
James picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing Moreno's vast experience advantage (over 30 fights vs 15 for Erceg), superior durability, better cardio, and higher fight IQ. He notes Erceg has been knocked out recently and has shown poor decision-making in late rounds, as seen against Pantoja. James acknowledges the elevation factor but believes Moreno's gas tank is more reliable, especially late. He predicts a late stoppage or more likely a decision win for Moreno, and mentions that if there's value, it lies with Erceg as an underdog.
Zane agrees with Connor that Erceg is being mishandled by the UFC, taking too many high-level fights in a row. He notes that Erceg's takedown attempt against Pantoja was a rookie mistake, and that he hasn't had time to develop. Zane sees Moreno as a tough test that Erceg isn't ready for, and picks Moreno to win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 2 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 2 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 9 of 29 | 31% | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kai Kara-France | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Steve Erceg | 9 of 29 | 31% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kai Kara-France | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 35 | 5 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Steve Erceg | 9 of 29 | 31% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Kara-France (+140)
Round 1
The lone all-Oceania battle comes in the co-main event, with New Zealand’s Kara-France (24-11, 1 NC; 7-4 UFC) aiming to snap his first losing streak in nearly a decade at the expense of former undisputed title challenger and Western Australia native Erceg (12-2, 3-1 UFC). Even with both men coming up short in past championship opportunities, a win tonight and maybe one more may propel the victor into contention once more. Referee Rich Mitchell will be the first to know who that is, and he sits back as the fighters come together to clap hands. Erceg shifts directly to the center of the cage, and they both are prepared for the other’s leg kick as they anticipatorily lift their lead legs when squaring up. Kara-France lunges forward after 45 seconds elapse with three looping hooks, and Erceg dances away from them all and pokes out a jab. Erceg jabs again, prompting Kara-France to do the same to the midsection. Erceg ducks just in time to dodge a looping right hand, and Kara-France is out of the way before he can get countered. Erceg jabs his way forward, and Kara-France sticks him to the ribs. Kara-France kicks the front leg and attacks the body, and Erceg kicks him back. Erceg keeps Kara-France at the end his punches, and Kara-France still manages to reach him with winging strikes. Erceg rolls with them just in time, and his own jab reddens the nose of the City Kickboxing product. Erceg puts an uppercut on the guard, bouncing Kara-France back to the fence. Kara-France unleashes a big right hand, and Erceg fires back fearlessly. “Don’t Blink” thumps the front leg and aims a jab to the body, and he strafes to the side but is still met with a jab. Kara-France winds up with a massive left hand, sending Erceg flying. The back of Erceg’s head clatters off the mat, possibly reactivating him after a flash knockout. Kara-France aims and misses two standing-to-ground punches before Erceg dives after his leg, and Erceg uses the close range to explode back to his feet. Kara-France is on him loaded for bear, firing off a huge right hand that forces Erceg to retreat as fast as he can. Kara-France connects with a massive right hook on the temple, and Erceg shifts to the side to dodge. Unfortunately for “Astro Boy,” he circles right into the power right hand of the Kiwi. Kara-France detonates a bomb of a right hand on Erceg’s dome, sending him down in a heap. Two punctuating punches to the side finish the job as Mitchell races in to rescue Erceg from further harm. Kara-France has done it, springing the sizeable upset and becoming the first fighter to knock out the durable youngster. Erceg does not protest the stoppage when he gets back to his feet while in Mitchell’s protective embrace, instead showing disappointment in himself for getting caught like this. Meanwhile, Kara-France jumps to the top of the fence and celebrates his handiwork with the elated audience.
The Official Result
Kai Kara-France def. Steve Erceg R1 4:04 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg because of his size advantage and grappling, believing he can use his size to lean on Kai Kara-France and get the fight to the ground. He notes that Kara-France has great takedown defense but is tiny, and Erceg is big for the division. He considers it a close fight and suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Kara-France might be good.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He favors Erceg due to durability (never knocked out or submitted) and grappling upside (BJJ black belt). He notes Kara-France has been finished six times and is hittable. He believes Erceg can hurt Kara-France on the feet and then submit him. He acknowledges the striking could be competitive but thinks Erceg has more paths to victory, including the younger age and grappling advantage.
Cody sees Erceg as the bigger, more durable fighter with better takedown defense and a higher ceiling after nearly beating Pantoja. He notes Kara-France is on a two-fight losing streak, has been knocked down multiple times, and lacks power against top competition. Cody also mentions Erceg's hometown advantage in Perth.
Vreeland picks Erceg, calling him the better all-around fighter. He notes Kara-France is good at stuffing takedowns but Erceg's striking power (brutal KO) will make him hesitant. He also highlights Erceg's ground game shown against Pantoja, suggesting a possible submission. He envisions a 'tag and bag' scenario similar to Kara-France's loss to Brandon Royval.
Daniel Vreeland picks Kai Kara-France via split decision, arguing that Erceg is overrated off his title shot and that Kara-France has the defensive grappling and striking to make it close. He notes that Kara-France has been training hard and won the bleep test at his gym, and that the line movement toward Kara-France suggests sharp action. Vreeland acknowledges the risk of Kara-France's layoff and concussion narrative but believes the fight is a dog-or-pass situation.
Fox agrees with Erceg for the same reasons: more well-rounded and dangerous everywhere. He emphasizes Erceg's ability to hurt Kara-France on the feet and potentially submit him. He notes Kara-France has been submitted before after being stunned.
The host is confident in Erceg, citing his technical striking, height advantage, and defensive grappling. He expects Erceg to land straight shots and counter Kara-France's power shots. He also notes Erceg's submission threat. He believes Erceg is the more complete fighter and will win by decision or submission.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Erceg's performance against Pantoja as a revelation that he belongs at the top. He notes Kara-France's takedowns won't be effective because Erceg gets back up easily, and that Erceg's size and durability will be key. Paul also points out the travel advantage for Erceg fighting in Perth.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg over Kai Kara-France. He praises Erceg's activity, technical striking, and game planning, noting he is taller and good at picking shots against shorter opponents. He criticizes Kara-France for being one-dimensional, always stepping in with the same overhand. He acknowledges Kara-France's takedown defense but believes Erceg will win a decision, possibly dropping Kara-France. He mentions Kara-France's long layoffs and losses.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 125 of 242 | 51% | 143 of 262 | 9 of 19 | 47% | 0 | 0 | 8:15 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 111 of 212 | 52% | 129 of 233 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 0:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 30 of 55 | 54% | 34 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 17 of 35 | 48% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 27 of 53 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 28 of 43 | 65% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 34 of 57 | 59% | 37 of 60 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 26 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 31 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 22 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandre Pantoja | 125 of 242 | 51% | 75 of 184 | 33 of 39 | 17 of 19 | 96 of 207 | 14 of 16 | 15 of 19 |
| Steve Erceg | 111 of 212 | 52% | 87 of 181 | 16 of 23 | 8 of 8 | 107 of 207 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandre Pantoja | 30 of 55 | 54% | 17 of 39 | 7 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 11 |
| Steve Erceg | 17 of 35 | 48% | 12 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandre Pantoja | 23 of 48 | 47% | 16 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 41 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Steve Erceg | 28 of 43 | 65% | 23 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 26 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alexandre Pantoja | 34 of 57 | 59% | 15 of 36 | 15 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 49 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Steve Erceg | 22 of 45 | 48% | 17 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexandre Pantoja | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Steve Erceg | 31 of 63 | 49% | 23 of 52 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 31 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexandre Pantoja | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Steve Erceg | 13 of 26 | 50% | 12 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pantoja (-185), Erceg (+154)
Round 1
The evening concludes in the flyweight division, as extremely violent champion Pantoja (27-5, 11-3 UFC) welcomes the next challenge of his belt. That comes in the form of relative neophyte Erceg (12-1, 3-0 UFC), who was not on the UFC roster one year ago. Make no mistake, Erceg has shown he has the skills to be a legitimate contender, and he is calm as a cucumber in the biggest fight of his life. Referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating the final bout of the evening, and it begins with the two coming together to bump fists as they receive instructions. Pantoja immediately surges into action, chasing the challenger around the cage with reckless flurries of punches. One such press bullies Erceg to the wall, and he fights off a takedown attempt and gains some separation as his nose is already reddening. Erceg keeps his jab outstretched to keep the champ at bay, and he lines up several punches and a head kick to surprise Pantoja. Pantoja gathers himself and lets loose with a number of body shots, and they tie up and knee at the same time to force them apart. Erceg jabs with his foot, toes outstretched. Pantoja comes in close, stringing together three punches and a knee that cuts the challenger on the top of his forehead. They trade low kicks, and Erceg looks for a right hand but is beaten to the punch when Pantoja gets off a left hand and a leg kick. Pantoja lands a big right hand, and he races forward and tackles Erceg to the mat. Erceg utilizes a butterfly guard to keep Pantoja from claiming top position, and he bucks the champ off momentarily. Pantoja rushes at him and knees him in the chest before smothering down to get into half guard and climb on top. Pantoja drops down a few punches before Erceg works his way back upright, only for Pantoja to drag him down from behind. Pantoja holds Erceg’s leg in a strange position to keep him pinned to the mat, and he knees Erceg in the side and forces Erceg to turn the other direction to nearly surrender his back. Pantoja unleashes a blitz of ground-and-pound, and Erceg steels himself and works back to his feet, although Pantoja still has the waist lock behind him. Pantoja wrangles Erceg down to his seat again, and Erceg scrambles madly to climb back up. Erceg walks Pantoja down with seconds left in the round, and he misses with a knee before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 2
The flyweights clock in, and Erceg looks to establish his jab only for the champion to bull-rush him with an unorthodox slew of punches, elbows and knees. Pantoja uses his aggression to tie Erceg up and consider a single, but he breaks off so he can knee Erceg in the guts. Pantoja jumps forward to land a jab, and Erceg pushes him away with a front kick. Pantoja crowds the pocket with flying fists, and Erceg struggles to land in response. Erceg gets in a few jabs, breaking up the looping shots from Pantoja. Pantoja wanders into a firefight, and he chucks Erceg to the mat just when Erceg lands cleanly on him. Pantoja climbs over to full mount, and Erceg sits up in an effort to escape it and recover back to half guard. Erceg sweeps the champion, and Pantoja does not mind as he knees Erceg in the belly twice before they split apart, back on their feet again. Erceg lets go a left hook that bangs into the temple, and he dips down with an uppercut and shoots for a takedown. Pantoja lets him do this so he can snatch up a guillotine choke, and Erceg bails on the attempt immediately to get out of the submission danger. Erceg lands first and last during an exchange, and he brushes past the face with a front kick. Pantoja lashes out with a right hand, and he catches Pantoja coming in with a vicious elbow and a powerful left hand. Pantoja decides to shoot for a takedown, but Erceg shuts it down and starts walking the champion down. Erceg pops out a jab, and he elbows Pantoja as Pantoja strides forward. Erceg scores rapid strikes and only slows when Pantoja slaps him with a body kick. Pantoja grabs hold of Erceg, slinging the challenger to the mat with seconds to spare. Pantoja rains down punches, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
Pantoja is ready to attack to start off the round, and Erceg intercepts him on the way in immediately with a stern elbow. Pantoja still manages to tie him up and knee the body a few times before they split. Erceg loops a left hand around the guard, and he scores a low kick and lands a few punches before escaping to avoid the counter. Erceg catches his man with a right hand, and Pantoja races after him and plants a kick on the lead calf. Erceg flicks his jab out, and he eats several body shots and gives back a left hand over the top. The challenger misses with a high kick and barely reaches with a front kick, and he backs off when Pantoja charges him. Pantoja goes to the body and head, and Erceg answers the call with a right hand. Erceg lands a few shots, slides to the side and evades the counter. Erceg slips a looping punch, and Pantoja catches him on the way out with a pair of hooks. “The Cannibal” sprints forward and clinches up, and he has a knee bounce off the cup as Erceg grimaces. Goddard is about to pause the action, and Erceg calls him off. The fighters split up, and they throw bombs and detonate them on one another. Erceg lands a body shot, and Pantoja attacks with mighty punches. Pantoja takes an elbow on the forehead that splits him open, and he shoots for takedown and touches the cut that has already started bleeding. Pantoja settles to pursue a body lock takedown, and he gets the challenger down to the mat and lands in half guard. Blood leaks into Erceg’s mouth as Pantoja lords over him, and he takes the back during a mad scramble. Erceg fights and shifts, and Pantoja pounds him with punches until Erceg stands up. Pantoja lands a trip takedown right at the bell, and he holds the wound on his forehead until the cutman tends to it.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja
Round 4
Erceg leads off in the championship rounds aggressively, and Pantoja meets him in the middle ready to counter and let fly a kick. Pantoja overswings with a right hand, and Erceg is composed and jabs while kicking low. Pantoja lands two jabs, and Erceg tries a trip takedown that Pantoja is easily able to get away from. Erceg lands at the end of a right hand, and he scores an elbow as well. Pantoja tries for a takedown that is shut down, with Erceg making him pay courtesy of an uppercut and left hand. Erceg lands first in the battle of the jab, and Pantoja races into action with three punches that appear to sting the challenger. Erceg tries for a takedown, and Pantoja again tosses him to the side. Erceg sticks him with a jab and a right hand to follow, and he snaps the head back with his sharp jab. Pantoja kicks low, and it is one-and-done as is volume has taken a downturn as he appears to be taking the round off, relatively speaking. Pantoja throws three punches, and the cut opens back up on his forehead as crimson fluid leaks into his eye. Pantoja wipes at it and clips Erceg with a right hand, and Erceg fearlessly moves forward before shooting for a takedown. Pantoja staves it off and considers a guillotine choke, but opts to release it and circle away. Erceg gives chase and hammers the liver with a left hand, and blood obscures Pantoja’s vision in his left eye. Pantoja whiffs on big hooks, and the few that follow land flush. Pantoja jabs, and he ducks right into an uppercut but does not flinch. Instead, Pantoja grabs hold of the challenger, landing a right hand when Erceg breaks. The round ends, and it could all be up for grabs in the next five minutes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 5
Erceg has plenty of pep in his step, as he practically runs towards the champion to engage. Pantoja meets him standing firm, throwing big hands, and Erceg stumbles as he tries to escape the assault. Erceg switches gears and throws Pantoja off his feet, landing a takedown but finding himself in an uncomfortable position with Pantoja pushes off his groin with his foot. Pantoja turns the tables, works his way back around to take the challenger down, and he circles around to take the back. Erceg stands back up, grabbing the fence to keep himself upright. Pantoja clings to him from behind, looking to drag him down, and Goddard warns Erceg about fouls. Erceg elbows him a few times without looking, and Pantoja drags him down from behind. Erceg spins during a scramble, and he manages to free himself from the grip and back to striking range. Erceg scores an uppercut, and he gets knocked back with a left hand. Pantoja sticks out a left hand as he gets kicked in the head, and he blasts the challenger with a good left hand. Erceg slashes open Pantoja with another elbow, opening a cut on the other side of the head. Pantoja digs a body shot and chains it into a right hand that stuns “Astro Boy.” Pantoja defends a takedown by allowing Erceg to attempt it and roll through it to wind up on top. Blood from the Brazilian pools on the chest of his opponent, with him residing in half guard until Erceg tries to explode and get away. Pantoja drags him back down, and he works the body while Erceg looks to twist and turn. Erceg gives up his back as he moves, and Pantoja follows him and leaps into mount. The champion drops punches on the Aussie until Erceg sits up, and the bloody battle comes to a conclusion. Scorecards could be all over the map here, but no matter the victor, Erceg proved he is among the best 125-pounders in the world.
The victorious Pantoja gives Brazilian fighters 10 wins in 13 fights tonight, in a nailbiter that might look quite different if they run it back in a year or two. The defending flyweight champion now is tied with the active record of consecutive title defenses in the UFC with two, and it remains to be seen who will challenge him next. Pantoja asks for some time off, given his high level of activity. When “The Cannibal” returns, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (48-47 Pantoja)
Christian Stein scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (49-46 Pantoja)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Pantoja (48-47 Pantoja)
The Official Result
Alexandre Pantoja def. Steve Erceg via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Pantoja, expecting him to wrestle his way to a win similar to his fight with Brandon Royval. He notes Erceg's unassuming look but acknowledges his skill. He says the 2-1 odds are fair given Pantoja's experience and path to victory.
Big Brady emphasizes Pantoja's superior resume and proven championship rounds. He doubts Erceg's power and finishing ability, predicting Pantoja wins a decision in Brazil. He also mentions a prize pick play on Pantoja over 2.5 takedowns.
Cody picks Pantoja, citing his championship experience, improved cardio, and elite grappling with back-taking ability. He notes Erceg hasn't faced a top-tier grappler like Pantoja and is more of a decision fighter. Cody also likes Pantoja by submission at plus money as a prop.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexandre Pantoja confidently. He wants to root for Steve Erceg because his story is fun, but he doesn't think Erceg's skills match up. Vreeland notes that Erceg's best grappling moments come from countering shots, but Pantoja is nearly impossible to counter on takedowns. Erceg's striking power is also neutralized by Pantoja's defensive soundness. Vreeland emphasizes Pantoja's top game as possibly the best in MMA, comparing it to Islam Makhachev. He says Erceg's scrambling and countering style won't work against Pantoja's positional dominance.
Daniel Vreeland picks Pantoja to win by decision, citing Pantoja's experience, durability, and ability to manage the home crowd emotions. He acknowledges Erceg's toughness but believes Pantoja's path to victory involves taking the back and grinding out a decision. He disagrees with Cody Duran's early finish prediction, leaning toward a decision due to Erceg's durability.
Jeff Fox picks Alexandre Pantoja, surprised the line is as close as -185. He thinks this fight is too early for Erceg, who hasn't faced high-caliber opponents. Fox notes that Pantoja is happy to be champion and fights in Brazil, so he won't drop the ball. Technically, Pantoja is dangerous everywhere, with strong grappling and striking. Fox doesn't think Erceg's strengths (countering shots, throwing bombs) will work against Pantoja, who is defensively sound and has arguably the best top game in MMA. He says if Erceg were +300 or higher he might talk himself into it, but at these odds he sees Pantoja steamrolling him.
Erceg's BJJ black belt and ability to stay out of bad positions will allow him to survive Pantoja's early onslaught. He will force Pantoja to work and turn up the volume in the later rounds, eventually finding a finish as Pantoja slows down. Erceg's slicker striking in deep waters will catch Pantoja off guard, leading to a TKO victory.
Paul picks Pantoja, emphasizing his superior grappling control and ability to take backs. He questions Erceg's competition level and notes Pantoja's cardio has held up in five-round fights. Paul sees Erceg's path to victory as low and recommends Pantoja as a money-line play.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, arguing he is technically superior to Pantoja in all areas. He praises Erceg's takedown defense, clinch work, straight punches, and low kicks, and believes Pantoja's reliance on toughness is a weakness. He also notes Erceg's training with Craig Jones and the UFC's desire for an Australian star. He predicts Erceg will break Pantoja over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 22 of 78 | 28% | 25 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 34 of 72 | 47% | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 69 | 28% | 23 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Matt Schnell | 1 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 22 of 78 | 28% | 18 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 74 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 34 of 72 | 47% | 24 of 60 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 30 of 67 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 20 of 69 | 28% | 17 of 63 | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 32 of 67 | 47% | 23 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 62 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Matt Schnell | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-325), Schnell (+260)
Round 1
It is all action on the main card, which begins with a flashy flyweight affair between wild man Schnell (16-7, 1 NC; 6-5, 1 NC UFC) and surging up-and-comer Erceg (11-1, 2-0 UFC). The Fortis MMA fighter has not fared well as of late, but his most recent win was a spectacular technical submission over Su Mudaerji. The third man in the Octagon will be referee Chris Tognoni, who starts the fight as the speedy gentlemen clap hands together. Schnell immediately gets behind his jab, flicking it out repeatedly to back the once-beaten Erceg away. Schnell connects with a series of punches to shake up the Aussie, and he crowds him and eventually clinches with him and uses an elbow on the inside. Erceg separates, and on the break, he lands a strike to open a cut on the top of Schnell’s left eyebrow. Schnell wings punches, and Erceg sees them coming and dodges before jabbing that already damaged eye. Erceg ducks a punch and misses on a counter, and his jab continues to mark up Schnell’s face. Schnell tries for a knee on the inside when they get up close, and Erceg backs him off with two punches to splatter some blood on Schnell’s cheek. Erceg sinks in a leg kick and slides away, and he puts a one-two on the mark and slides to the side to evade the counter. Schnell swings hard but does not land flush, while Erceg is much tighter and more compact. Schnell pushes out his own jab, and he bloodies the nose of his opponent, but his own eye is turning into a crime scene. Erceg gets in a left and pounds Schnell on the cheek with a heavy right, and Schnell wears it well and jabs his way back out. Erceg staggers his foe with a right hand, and cracks him a second time as Schnell backpedals. Erceg wades in a little too carelessly, and he gets rocked by a fiery right hand from “Danger.” Schnell cracks Erceg again with a series of punches, and Erceg defends by shooting. Schnell sprawls perfectly and pops back up without issue, but Erceg bust him in the chops with a right hand. The Aussie connects with a body kick shortly thereafter, and a one-two and a snappy jab find Schnell’s face before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 2
The flyweights meet in the middle and touch ‘em up, and Schnell is ready and rearing to go. He starts off with a pair of low kicks and a combination, and he reaches a right hand around the jab.
Erceg continues to jab, and as Schnell comes loaded for bear, “Astro Boy” rips a right to the body and a left that sends Schnell into orbit. There is no need for anything else from the Aussie, and Tognoni intervenes just in case before tending to the unconscious flyweight.
Schnell comes to, and Erceg has now earned the second knockout of his professional career—doing so against one of the best foes he could in a top-ranked Schnell.
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Matt Schnell R2 0:26 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg, noting his slick grappling and ability to scramble. He thinks Erceg will use his length and grappling to win, despite not looking like a professional fighter. He acknowledges Matt Schnell's toughness but believes Erceg will get the win, possibly by decision.
Big Brady picks Erceg to win by second-round submission. He worries about Schnell's chin and durability, noting Schnell has been finished in 6 of 7 losses and has taken massive damage. He thinks Erceg will hurt Schnell and then submit him. He acknowledges Schnell's grappling but believes his durability is a major issue.
Cody picks Erceg, emphasizing Schnell's poor durability and history of getting knocked down. He notes that Erceg is a scrappy fighter with good grappling and volume, and that Schnell's best chance is a Hail Mary submission. Cody believes Erceg will eventually hurt Schnell and finish him, possibly in the middle rounds. He disagrees with the over, leaning towards the fight not going the distance.
Erceg is too clean and precise with his striking for Schnell, who lacks the reaction time to stop him. Erceg should land straight shots down the pipe, drop Schnell, and find the finish. Schnell has durability issues and has been in trouble in fights he even won. Erceg's BJJ is also a threat, but the host prefers a TKO finish. The under 1.5 rounds is plus money, and Erceg inside the distance is the play.
Paul picks Erceg and likes the over 1.5 rounds at -130. He notes Erceg is not a big power puncher but has a high pace and good grappling. He thinks Schnell is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, but Erceg may not have the power to finish early, making the over likely. He mentions Schnell's durability issues but believes Erceg will wear him down.
The MMA Guru picks Erceg but is not entirely confident. He criticizes Schnell's chin and submission defense, saying he taps easily. He expects Erceg to outdamage Schnell over a decision, possibly dropping him, but notes Erceg's finishing instincts are not great. He predicts a decision win for Erceg.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 74 of 125 | 59% | 104 of 162 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 | 1 | 6:29 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 54 of 97 | 55% | 85 of 129 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 31 of 54 | 57% | 31 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 16 of 36 | 44% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 24 of 45 | 53% | 37 of 60 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:06 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 33 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 19 of 26 | 73% | 36 of 48 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 14 of 19 | 73% | 36 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 74 of 125 | 59% | 41 of 87 | 25 of 30 | 8 of 8 | 43 of 91 | 26 of 28 | 5 of 6 |
| Alessandro Costa | 54 of 97 | 55% | 31 of 70 | 14 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 76 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 31 of 54 | 57% | 18 of 38 | 6 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 26 of 49 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Alessandro Costa | 16 of 36 | 44% | 6 of 25 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 24 of 45 | 53% | 15 of 35 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 30 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Alessandro Costa | 24 of 42 | 57% | 18 of 34 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 35 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 19 of 26 | 73% | 8 of 14 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 12 | 14 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Alessandro Costa | 14 of 19 | 73% | 7 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Erceg (-166), Costa (+140)
Round 1
Crashing into the UFC in June with a huge upset win over a ranked David Dvorak, Australia’s Erceg (10-1, 1-0 UFC) hopes his sophomore effort is just as solid as his UFC debut. Looking to halt his momentum will be Costa (13-3, 1-1 UFC), a former Lux Fight League champ who holds eight first-round finishes on his resume. They will be joined in the cage by referee Marc Goddard, and the preliminary headliner commences as the two flyweights touch gloves. Erceg takes to the center of the cage, and he slowly works his way forward without throwing much of note. When Costa aims a kick low, Erceg counters with a piston-like right hand. Erceg tosses out a leg kick, and a second kick makes Costa spring into action with a hard right hand. Costa flicks out a jab, and Erceg pushes out one back and kicks the inside and outside of his leg. When Costa kicks back, Erceg has a check ready. Costa’s big right hand bounces off the guard, and he swings two hooks as Erceg bears down on him. Erceg gets backed off, but still connects with a power jab. Costa flails long and connects with part of an overhand right, but Erceg is able to move with it to take some of the sting out of it. Erceg prods out his jab and snaps the head back with a right hand, and Costa kicks him in response. Costa rings Erceg’s bell with an overhand right, and he tries to chain another and is met with a knee up the middle and a right hook. Erceg splits the guard with a one-two, and he puts three together and sways to the side to make Costa hurl punches at nothing but air. Erceg goes between the gloves with an uppercut, and he lines up a huge right hand and busts Costa in the face. Costa attempts to take him down as he is rattled, and Erceg spins him around and climbs straight into full mount. Costa turns to his side, and Erceg snatches up a rear-naked choke. Costa is in huge trouble but manages to gut out the submission, as he turns his body and keeps moving. Erceg tries to trap him with another choke attempt, but Costa explodes to get back to his feet, and he pushes the Aussie to the wire. The round ends with both men attempting inaccurate front kicks.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 2
To start off the second stanza, the Australian fighter again claims the middle of the Octagon and moves forward, to force Costa to immediately backpedal. Erceg launches a head kick that pounds into the guard, and he shoves Costa and bounces him off the fence. Costa goes for a home run right hand, and Erceg evades it by a matter of millimeters. Costa is a man on a mission, looking for giant strikes, and he connects with numerous huge strikes as Erceg takes them or tries to keep moving. Costa drives a knee up the middle, and Erceg recovers and returns to put pressure on his opponent. Costa winds up with a hefty leg kick, and a subsequent overhand right stings Erceg again. Costa swings with a mighty right hook once more, and he shoots in low for a single to catch Erceg unaware. Erceg defends himself by getting pushed back to the wall, and Costa drags him down and shifts himself to half guard in a hurry. Costa tries to smash his foe with ground-and-pound, but he throws himself off-balance and allows Erceg to sneak out the back door and climb back to his feet, where he pushes Costa into the wall from behind. Erceg lowers himself down to grip hold of a single, and Costa gets away with a fence grab to stay upright. Erceg knees the body a few times while tightly pressed on his adversary, and Costa jumps guard for an armbar out of nowhere. Erceg defends himself smoothly and lets them both stand, but he continues to press his weight on his aggressive opponent. Costa pushes off, and he lets his hands go to knock Erceg back. As Erceg is wobbled, Costa tackles him to the canvas. The Brazilian turns over to pursue an armlock, and Erceg flips him over and grinds him with elbows on the face until the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 3
The flyweights have reached Round 3, and Erceg is quick to resume the trend where he started the first two rounds pushing the pace early. Erceg backs Costa off, threatening knees and level changes, and Costa blocks a jump knee that is aimed at his dome. Erceg pushes him up to the fencing, and he fights off a trip to keep on his feet. Erceg looks to drag his man down, but Costa awkwardly keeps his balance and may have grabbed the cage again. Erceg transitions to a single, and Costa belts him with an elbow to back him off. Costa comes up short with a sweeping low kick, and Erceg jabs him multiple times in the face before timing a clean level change. Costa is on the mat for barely a second before jumping back up, and Erceg squeezes him up against the fencing to control him further. Costa gets off a solid right hand to back off the Aussie, and Erceg gathers his thoughts and pushes him back to the wall. Erceg looks to tie the legs up and trip Costa down, and Costa hits his knees and powers back up without batting an eye. Costa attempts his own far-side trip that does not succeed, and Erceg elbows him and eats two knees in the belly for his effort. Costa turns him around and sells out for a single, and he dumps Erceg down but cannot control him. Erceg is upright before Costa knows it, and he is pushing the Brazilian against the wall to run out the clock. Costa frames off with knees to the body, and Erceg responds in kind. Erceg cannot get his foe down, and he settles for clinch control until the final horn wraps the fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. Alessandro Costa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Costa as an underdog, citing Costa's solid striking, tight guard, and real power. He notes Erceg is high volume and hittable, but Costa's power and combination striking could be the difference. He is not betting on this fight yet and may flip later.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by knockout in the third round. He notes Erceg is not on short notice, has a size advantage, and his striking has leveled up. He worries about Costa's durability, as Costa has been knocked out twice before and gets hurt often. Brady believes Erceg's power and improved striking will lead to a finish.
Cody picks Erceg, impressed by his debut on short notice against a ranked opponent. He notes Erceg's durability, scrambling, and ability to push a pace. He thinks Costa's low output and reliance on leg kicks won't be enough, and that Erceg has more dog in him.
Costa is the better fighter and the line is close to even, so taking the underdog at +130 is worth a small shot. Costa will be more aggressive and can stay out of danger if Erceg tries to take it to the ground. Expects Costa to control distance in the striking realm, land big shots, and win by decision.
Paul leans Costa as a dog, citing his leg kicks and power. He thinks Erceg's tall frame may be vulnerable to leg kicks, and that Costa's takedown defense is solid. He notes the line movement towards Costa and sees value at plus money, though he's not overly confident.
The MMA Guru picks Steve Erceg, citing his impressive debut win over David Dvorak on short notice and strong regional career. He notes that Alessandro Costa was pieced up by Amir Albazi on the feet, which he sees as a bad sign. He predicts a competitive decision win for Erceg, possibly 29-28, but expresses a slight worry that Erceg might get knocked out due to his build.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 0 | 53 of 114 | 46% | 56 of 117 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 54 of 140 | 38% | 56 of 142 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 16 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 23 of 49 | 46% | 23 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 18 of 51 | 35% | 18 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| David Dvořák | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 22 of 35 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Steve Erceg | 53 of 114 | 46% | 26 of 77 | 10 of 19 | 17 of 18 | 46 of 102 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 5 |
| David Dvořák | 54 of 140 | 38% | 28 of 101 | 16 of 26 | 10 of 13 | 46 of 131 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Steve Erceg | 20 of 46 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| David Dvořák | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 41 | 1 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 16 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Steve Erceg | 23 of 49 | 46% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 40 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
| David Dvořák | 18 of 51 | 35% | 11 of 40 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Steve Erceg | 10 of 19 | 52% | 6 of 12 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| David Dvořák | 20 of 33 | 60% | 9 of 20 | 9 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 27 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dvorak (-260), Erceg (+220)
Round 1
Across this $80 pay-per-view, just six of the 11 bouts on the billing feature at least one competitor with a number next to their name, with three on the main card. The first rankings-worthy bout tonight comes all the way down in the early prelims, as Dvorak (20-5, 3-2 UFC) looks to hold the line and turn things around at the expense of debuting Australian Erceg (9-1, 0-0 UFC). When the cage door closes, referee Mitch Cadlick takes charge. The fighters elect to clap hands to introduce themselves, and the fight begins with Erceg looking for his distance with range-finding jabs. Dvorak moves busily from side to side, and he lands a solid low kick to start his own tally. Erceg whips a head kick at his man that is circling away, and Dvorak is moving well enough to avoid the worst of it. Dvorak chops down the calf with a few more blows, and Erceg walks forward to throw hands and has his chin checked in an exchange. Erceg shakes it off and responds with a low kick of his own. Erceg dodges a punch and wings a left hand that tags Dvorak square on the temple, and Dvorak staggers to the side for a few steps before regathering his thoughts. Erceg does not overextend himself, and instead of makes Dvorak come at him. Dvorak cracks his foe with a solid right hand, and Erceg takes a funny step but is responds with two punches. Dvorak reaches him with a right hand over the top, and they keep hacking at one another’s calves. Dvorak dodges a big right hand and bounces off the fencing, and his calf gets kicked hard. “The Undertaker” does not let him off the hook, instead kicking right back at him. Dvorak whiffs on a heavy right hand and has his guard up just in time to block a head kick. Dvorak stutter-steps into a low kick and one to the body, and he feints and fakes to smack Erceg in the face with a pair of crisp fists. Erceg comes up short on a high kick, and he times a right hand as Dvorak is ducking. Dvorak goes back to the calf with another kick, and he spins with a kick that grazes the chest. The round ends as Erceg gives chase.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dvorak
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dvorak
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dvorak
Round 2
In the start of the second round, Dvorak strides to the middle of the cage, but he gives ground and gets back to his circular movement. Dvorak digs a left to the body and a left to the head, and Erceg takes them both cleanly without issue. Dvorak is out of the way before he gets reached, and the two start trading jabs from a safe distance. Dvorak comes up short on a right hand and slams his shin on Erceg’s calf. Erceg checks it, but the damage is done as it landed with a thud. Dvorak gets tagged with a right hand when looking for a winding punch, and he gathers his thoughts and sticks Erceg with a straight right hand on the way out. Dvorak digs another left to the body and follows it with a head shot, and Erceg is just delayed enough to miss on the counter and get kicked when Dvorak escapes. Dvorak catches a body kick and knocks the newcomer back with a right hand, and Erceg gathers his balance and lashes out with a five-punch combo that is all guarded. Dvorak ducks into a left hand and dodges a subsequent blow, and he is low enough to allow him to stifle a double-leg entry from the Aussie. Erceg flicks out a jab, only to get met with a stern low kick. The kicks from Dvorak have forced Erceg to change stances, and he checks a kick and takes a funny step. Erceg misses the mark and eats a straight right hand, and he marches forward to cracks Dvorak with a right hand. Erceg follows it with a lightning-quick head kick, cracking Dvorak and hurting him badly. Dvorak is shaken up, and Erceg attacks for a standing guillotine choke to drag the Czech fighter to the mat. Dvorak drops down and slides his head out, so Erceg re-adjusts the position to lock it back down again. Dvorak again survives the choke, and he claims half guard with 30 seconds to spare. Erceg manages to get off an upkick as he finds some space, and he fights his way up to his feet and lands a right hand and a big left just before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg
Round 3
The last round kicks off with a glove touch, and the pace is not as frenetic as it was when the previous frame ended. Dvorak flicks out several jabs, and he slides around a left hand to land a straight right. Erceg loads up on power shots, and Dvorak’s movement is back and he is evasive enough to avoid the worst of it. Dvorak eats a jab and a right hand, and he checks a leg kick but cannot block a stabbing body kick. Erceg absorbs a front kick to the ribs in an answer, and the two meet in the middle and throw hands. Erceg throws himself off-balance, allowing Dvorak to kick him hard. As the two crash together, Dvorak falls to his knees and Erceg takes his back. Erceg abandons the position instead of overcommitting to it, and they both stand up. Dvorak is quick to catch a kick and drive the newcomer to the wall, and he starts kneeing Erceg with stern shots. Erceg powers his way out of the position and they return to the center of the cage to slug it out. Dvorak shoot in for a low sing-leg takedown, and he grabs the leg as Erceg defends with a guillotine choke. Dvorak bails on it and stands up, and he reaches with a right hand and changes levels quickly for a double. The Aussie throws up a guillotine, and he has nothing this time as Dvorak snatches his head out of it and drops down a few elbows. Erceg scrambles brilliantly and stands up before Dvorak can follow up, and he succeeds in bowling “The Undertaker” over and threatening the neck. Dvorak hits a sweep to roll Erceg over, and the two power back to their feet in the clinch. Dvorak meets him with a knee before they split, and he succumbs to a takedown and is quick to reach the fence and stand back up. Erceg lands the mat return, but Dvorak is only down for a matter of seconds. Dvorak works his way up once more, and he eats a knee while Erceg hangs on him from behind. Erceg lands a knee to the body, and a few punches on the side of the head right before the final bell sounds. The close fight ends, and it could go either way. Regardless of the winner, Erceg impressed the masses with his skills, taking a ranked fighter to the bitter end on short notice.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Erceg (29-28 Erceg)
The Official Result
Steve Erceg def. David Dvorak via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
Angelo picks David Dvořák, noting his solid striking, forward pressure, and takedown defense. He criticizes Steve Erceg's striking, calling it unimpressive with a wide stance and limited head movement. He believes Dvořák's experience and fundamentals will prevail, and mentions that if odds are around -175, he would bet on Dvořák.
Big Brady picks David Dvořák because he is a significant step up in competition for Steve Erceg, who is taking the fight on short notice. Dvořák has fought top flyweights and has good takedown defense and striking. Erceg has shown good grappling but is unlikely to take Dvořák down. Dvořák should win a decision by being the better striker and stuffing takedowns.
Cody picks David Dvořák, citing his experience and cardio advantage. He notes that Erceg has mostly first-round finishes and faded in his only decision win. Dvořák has gone the distance with top-10 opponents and has better striking and wrestling. He believes Erceg's short-notice debut and cardio issues will be his downfall.
Connor also picks David Dvořák, noting that Erceg is a good scrambler but his level of competition has been low. Dvořák is a much better striker and has solid takedown defense; Connor points out that Bruno Silva took Dvořák down three times but Dvořák spent only a minute and a half on the mat and had two sweeps. He thinks Erceg's awkward striking and tendency to get surprised by takedowns will be a problem against a well-rounded fighter like Dvořák.
Daniel Levi picks David Dvořák, arguing that Erceg is a first-round finish or bust fighter who gassed against a 2-0 opponent. He notes that Dvořák has fought top-5 competition and shown toughness, surviving a Kimura from Manel Kape. He believes Dvořák can win in multiple ways and will take over if the fight goes past the first round. He sees Erceg's cardio as a major liability.
James likes the value on Steve Erceg as a +235 underdog. He notes Erceg has good grappling, back takes, and submission ability, plus a height advantage and momentum with a 9-1 record. Dvořák is coming off two losses. James acknowledges Erceg might gas but showed he can push through. He thinks if it becomes a grindy grappling affair, it favors Erceg. However, he still believes Dvořák should win, so it's a value play rather than a strong conviction pick.
Dvořák is a solid all-around fighter with good striking combinations and underrated grappling, but his recent losses show he may have a ceiling. Erceg is a dangerous debutant with an 8-fight win streak and a black belt in BJJ, but the step up in competition is a question. The odds are too wide at -285; only a sprinkle on Erceg or a play on Dvořák if the line drops to -150/-160. Prediction is Dvořák by decision, but low confidence.
Paul leans toward Erceg as a dog, noting that he is tall for flyweight and a decent counterpuncher. He thinks Erceg's grappling is opportunistic and could give Dvořák problems. However, he is not confident enough to bet him, citing Erceg's cardio issues and short notice. He ultimately passes on betting but picks Erceg for the show.
The MMA Guru picks David Dvořák over debutant Steve Erceg, citing Dvořák's superior regional career and experience against top flyweights. He notes Dvořák submitted a dangerous opponent in the second round and has fought the best, keeping fights competitive. He believes Dvořák's experience will be the difference against a newcomer, predicting a 29-28 decision.
Zane picks David Dvořák, describing him as a very competent, well-rounded fighter with solid striking fundamentals (volume one-twos, low kicks) and good takedown defense. He notes that Erceg is a fun scrambling grappler but has poor wrestling and gets taken down easily early. Dvořák has never been submitted and is tough to outmaneuver on the ground. Zane thinks Erceg will have to outwrestle Dvořák to get the fight to the ground, which is unlikely given Dvořák's skills.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo picks Steve Erceg despite being a known hater, because he believes Erceg is the cleaner, more technical grappler. He thinks Erceg's durability and wrestling will overcome Tim Elliott's pressure. However, he criticizes the -400 odds as too high and finds it hard to connect the dots.
Big Brady picks Steve Erceg to win by third-round submission. He believes Erceg is the better striker and has underrated grappling, while Tim Elliott slows down and has poor submission defense (submitted six times). Brady expects Elliott to be competitive early but fade, allowing Erceg to catch a late submission.
Cody picks Erceg but is hesitant, noting Erceg's inconsistency and chin issues. He believes Erceg's takedown defense and counter grappling will be key, and that Elliott's age and travel fatigue may work against him.
Daniel Vreeland picks Steve Erceg, expecting him to take over in the later rounds. He notes Tim Elliott's funky style and early-round danger but believes Erceg's cardio and submission threat will prevail. He also mentions Elliott's jet lag complaints as a potential factor.
Erceg has every advantage: home crowd, younger, better striker, better grappler. Elliott has poor striking, bad takedown defense, and is weak off his back. Erceg went five rounds with Pantoja, so submission risk is low. Surprised Erceg isn't a bigger favorite; tempted to bet straight.
Lucrative James picks Steve Erceg to win via submission in round three. He expects Tim Elliott to start strong but fade, allowing Erceg to take over in later rounds with superior cardio and grappling. He references Erceg's past performances where he dominated late rounds.
The host picks Erceg, believing his Muay Thai and BJJ will nullify Elliott's grappling. He expects Erceg to land more damage on the feet and win a decision, possibly catching Elliott in a submission. The host notes Elliott's value but thinks Erceg is the more skilled fighter.
Paul picks Erceg, emphasizing his strong takedown defense and performance against top competition. He notes Elliott's age and travel issues, and believes Erceg will edge out a close decision in Australia.
The MMA Guru picks Tim Elliott after initially considering Steve Erceg. He worries about Erceg's inconsistency, citing the Ode Osbourne fight, and believes Elliott's craftiness will lead to a split decision win. He thinks Erceg may fumble in the big moment.
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