vs
-175 +215
UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates Next Fight
Age 33
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 32
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76"
Weight 264 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tai Tuivasa
3.66 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.97 SApM
43.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Louie Sutherland
3.75 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
7.5 SApM
22.0% Str. Def.
4.69 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
0.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Tai Tuivasa
Moneyline
BetWay -175
KO/TKO
FanDuel -120
Submission
FanDuel +3000
Decision
BetRivers +750
Louie Sutherland
Moneyline
Caesars +215
KO/TKO
FanDuel +500
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
Unibet +600
Tai Tuivasa - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 13 of 22 59% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Louie Sutherland 0 21 of 25 84% 111 of 130 5 of 11 45% 0 2 11:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 9 66% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 12 75% 32 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:40
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 3 of 4 75% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louie Sutherland 0 7 of 7 100% 42 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:36
3 Tai Tuivasa 0 4 of 9 44% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Louie Sutherland 0 5 of 6 83% 37 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 13 of 22 59% 12 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 9 5 of 5 6 of 8
Louie Sutherland 21 of 25 84% 15 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 7 7 of 9 4 of 5 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 9 of 12 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 5 3 of 3
2 Tai Tuivasa 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
3 Tai Tuivasa 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Louie Sutherland vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
The main card opener features a couple of big men in desperate need of a win, in the form of Tuivasa (14-9; 8-9 UFC), who is on a four-fight skid, and Sutherland (10-5; 0-2 UFC), who is winless in two tries in the Octagon. The third man in the cage will be Rich Mitchell. The heavyweights touch gloves, then set up in matchin orthodox stances. Sutherland touches with a calf kick, then another. Sutherland drops levels and rushes forward in search of a takedown. Tuivasa allows himself to be backed up to the fence, where he defends with a front headlock. Sutherland gives up on the takedown and they go back to work on the feet. Sutherland changes levels again and puts Tuivasa on his seat with a double-leg. Tuivasa refuses to concede the takedown, however, scooting on his butt all the way to the fence, grabbing another guillotine and returning to his feet. Tuivasa shucks him off and connects with a flurry of punches on the break. Sutherland is hurt, and Tuivasa nails him with an elbow to the head, followed by a knee. Sutherland grabs hold of Tuivasa and hustles him to the ground with what amounts to a shove, then takes top position. At the midpoint of Round 1, it’s Sutherland on top, dropping short punches and elbows. Tuivasa is working to defend his face and get back to his feet, but Sutherland is heavy on top and very methodical, pulling the Aussie’s base out from under him. Under a minute to go and the Perth crowd grows restive, but Sutherland is plenty active on top, throwing constant punches from half guard. The horn sounds. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 2
Sutherland lands first with an inside low kick. Tuivasa responds with a leg kick of his own. Sutherland shoots for a takedown but Tuivasa uses an underhook to stand him back up as they collide with the fence. Sutherland re-shoots and gets the takedown. Tuivasa powers to his feet and Sutherland tosses him back down, then follows, landing in side control. Sutherland is heavy on top, dropping short punches to the body while keeping within striking distance of an arm-triangle choke. Sutherland grinds an elbow into Tuivasa’s head. The partisan crowd is chanting “stand ‘em up” despite Sutherland being in side control, but he slides into full mount. Sutherland continues to deliver a steady stream of short punches and elbows while moving back to side control. Tuivasa stands back up with 90 seconds left, but Sutherland drives him back to the ground a moment later. Tuivasa is turtled at the base of the fence, controlling Sutherland’s left hand with both of his own. Sutherland sinks a single hook, moves to Tuivasa’s back and appears to be hunting for a choke. Tuivasa bucks straight into a guilllotine attempt a few seconds before the horn. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 3
Sutherland is almost certainly up two rounds to none as the heavies come out for Round 3. Both men actually look pretty fresh considering what a grueling fight it’s been, but Sutherland quickly gets another easy takedown. “The Vanilla Gorilla” sets up in side control, and Mitchell is warning him to stay busy. Sutherland is staying busy, as he did in Rounds 1 and 2, throwing a steady stream of strikes while looking to gradually move to an even more dominant position. Tuivasa bucks, scrambles and gets to all fours, where Sutherland moves to back control, but Tuivasa goes to his back and regains half guard. Sutherland is heavy on top, pelting Tuivasa with little right hands, flattening him out and looking to pass his guard. With a minute to go, Mitchell stands them up. Sutherland tries some kind of spin or roll, collides with a Tuivasa knee and falls to his back. Tuivasa pounces and taked top position, hammering Sutherland with a couple of big punches, then nails him with a flagrantly illegal knee to the head while they are grounded. A few seconds later the final horn sounds, while Mitchell instructs the judges to deduct a point from Tuivasa for the foul. 10-8 Sutherland (30-26 Sutherland).

The Official Result
Louie Sutherland def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.

No odds yet; hopes for affordable line to bet.
"Tai's going to be the pick. I hope Tai has a little more cardio than he did in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.

Tuivasa by decision
"I'll go Tuivasa by decision, though."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.

KO prop
"Tai for all of Tai's faults. It's like if you're gonna knock him out, you got to probably be a top guy... I do feel like Tai gets back in the win column."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.

"I think it's comeback season, my friends. ... give me Tu Iasa to snap the big skid and uh to get back on track."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.

"It's a very tricky fight whichever way you approach this one from a betting point of view."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Sutherland here. Uh, and Sutherland by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.

KO prop
"Tai Knockout is like very fair, I think. Like, like we know Tai's not very unlikely to be get a sub be getting a sub in this fight and is like his his KO props like minus 115. It's basically …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.

win in round one
"I'm going to go Tai Tuivasa coming in at 264. He's pulling off a big weight cut here um for this one. I'm going to go with Tai Tuivasa getting the job done."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 325 · Feb 01, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tallison Teixeira 0 42 of 58 72% 56 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Tai Tuivasa 0 51 of 74 68% 117 of 144 3 of 9 33% 0 0 7:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tallison Teixeira 0 2 of 4 50% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 23 82% 51 of 58 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:57
2 Tallison Teixeira 0 13 of 18 72% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Tai Tuivasa 0 21 of 31 67% 43 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:01
3 Tallison Teixeira 0 27 of 36 75% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:10
Tai Tuivasa 0 11 of 20 55% 23 of 32 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tallison Teixeira 42 of 58 72% 21 of 36 10 of 10 11 of 12 27 of 35 11 of 17 4 of 6
Tai Tuivasa 51 of 74 68% 39 of 60 10 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 47 4 of 4 21 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tallison Teixeira 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 23 82% 16 of 20 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 15
2 Tallison Teixeira 13 of 18 72% 3 of 7 2 of 2 8 of 9 11 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 1
Tai Tuivasa 21 of 31 67% 18 of 27 2 of 2 1 of 2 14 of 23 0 of 0 7 of 8
3 Tallison Teixeira 27 of 36 75% 17 of 26 7 of 7 3 of 3 15 of 17 9 of 14 3 of 5
Tai Tuivasa 11 of 20 55% 5 of 13 6 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tallison Teixeira vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Teixeira (-298), Tuivasa (+240)

Round 1
On the main card of this numbered event, two heavyweights clash having gone 0-6 in their last six outings. Granted, five of those six recent defeats are on the ledger of “Bam Bam” Tuivasa (14-8, 8-8 UFC), but Teixeira (8-1, 1-1 UFC) was also felled his last time out by a man Tuivasa crushed in Derrick Lewis. A winking referee Marc Goddard knows these big men will likely get things done before the judges get involved, steeling himself while they tap gloves together.
Tuivasa comes right after the taller Brazilian, and although he bullies Teixeira to the wall, he quickly finds that Teixeira has a double-leg takedown waiting for him. “Xicao” takes the Aussie right off his feet, and he starts pounding on Tuivasa with his fists. Teixeira changes to elbows, prompting Tuivasa to hurry himself to his knees with his side against the cage so that he does not take strikes to both sides of his head. Teixeira tries to hold “Bam Bam” down, but he cannot, so he settles to knee Tuivasa in the gut. Teixeira uses a body lock to trip out Tuivasa, and he climbs into full mount and starts lashing down with elbows. Tuivasa turns to his side, and Teixeira drills him with a ground strike or two until Tuivasa gets wrist control to stop the pounding. Tuivasa looks to his corner for advice, as the 6-foot-8 Brazilian holds him down in a three-quarter mount position.
Teixeira hacks down with elbows to the top and side of the head, and Tuivasa calmly hangs out on bottom until Teixeira loads up with a few more punches. Teixeira lands an elbow on the back of the head when beating down Tuivasa, who looks unconcerned but otherwise fairly helpless. Teixeira controls with his left arm while clubbing Tuivasa with his right, and he mixes in an elbow or two for good measure. Tuivasa sits up and slugs Teixeira off of him, and he takes a knee on the jaw and goes right after Teixeira. Tuivasa loads up on a big right hand, and Teixeira grapples him in the clinch to stop him from further strikes. Tuivasa imposes his weight on the taller man and gets in a knee or two, and he headbutts the Brazilian under the chin. To the surprise of many, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira

Round 2
An energized Tuivasa rushes out of his corner, walking through a front kick so he can sling a big right hand. Teixeira uses his long legs to keep the Aussie at bay, and Tuivasa is headhunting while looking for that huge right hand. He partially connects with one, and is met with a Teixeira knee on the way out. Tuivasa ducks a telegraphed spinning back elbow and jabs the body to set up a right upstairs, and elbows Teixeira as well. Teixeira answers with a thudding body kick, so Tuivasa kicks his legs hard. Tuivasa’s kicks are rapidly disrupting the taller man, so Teixeira gives him one or two back to think about. Tuivasa keeps attacking the lead leg, shrugging off a straight right hand to deliver a huge right hand over the top. Teixeira boots Tuivasa upside the head, and he shoots in for a double and bowls “Bam Bam” over. Tuivasa clings to his man while seated up, and he turns the corner as his shorts fall down. Teixeira is able to turn him back around and put him flat on his back, where he delivers a few elbows to Tuivasa before mounting him.
Teixeira uses 12-to-6 elbows when available, and uses heavy chest-to-chest pressure to keep Tuivasa stuck. Tuivasa looks to his corner when controlled and shakes his head in frustration, and he gets flattened out on his stomach. Teixeira pounds on him with his free left hand, and Tuivasa’s slight head movement protects him from a few of the blows but most get through. Tuivasa turns over to get to his back once more, with Teixeira back to mount looking to execute an Ezekiel choke. Tuivasa breaks the choke grip while “Xicao” holds him down and beats on him. Teixeira flirts with a straight armlock but is met with Tuivasa punches from his back until the second round concludes. Fans boo Teixeira heartily.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira

Round 3
Tuivasa hurries forward to offer a glove touch and start engaging, and he loads up quickly on leg kicks. Tuivasa goes to the body with a left and follows it with a knee, and Teixeira backs him away with a front kick. Tuivasa fakes with his right to open up a strike, and Teixeira answered with a labored takedown attempt that fails miserably. Tuivasa shakes his head at him and loads up on a huge right hand, and Teixeira is feeling it but gets some respite when Tuivasa elects to clinch him. Tuivasa knees the thigh when pressing on the Brazilian, with both fighters likely spent after about 12 minutes of fight thus far. Tuivasa bails on it and starts swinging. Teixeira backs away, stumbling as his balance is starting to betray him, and he nails Tuivasa with two punches coming in. Tuivasa goes for broke with two huge punches, and he hurts Teixeira with them and proceeds to clinch him again. The commentary booth is collectively losing it at Tuivasa’s strategy, seemingly not realizing how exhausted both men are.
Tuivasa slashes his foe in the face with an elbow, and he takes a kick to the liver and puts his hands on his hips. Teixeira does the same, and Tuivasa lumbers towards him and pulls his shorts up, before clinching again. Tuivasa drapes his hands over the top of the cage, and is warned for it, so he starts ripping punches to the body. Tuivasa fights in brief spurts before tying his man up, and he stings Teixeira with a pair of punches and stifles a rough takedown attempt. The color commentators of Daniel Cormier and Michael Bisping are screaming advice to Tuivasa as if they were cornering him, and Tuivasa cannot hear them or does not have the energy to do anything about it. He holds on from on top before working the body a few times, and when Teixeira scrambles, a sweaty Tuivasa slides over the back while swinging as hard as he can. The horrid heavyweight slopfest ends after stunningly going 15 minutes, with both big men needing oxygen tanks after what they produced there.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa (29-28 Teixeira)

The Official Result
Tallison Teixeira def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Angelo picks Tallison Teixeira but is hesitant due to Tai Tuivasa's weight and layoff concerns. He notes Tai's takedown defense is non-existent and he's on a 5-fight losing skid, while Teixeira is massive and athletic. However, he says if Tai looks good at weigh-ins, he would flip the pick. He emphasizes waiting for weigh-ins.

wait for weigh-ins
"I have to pick Talson to Sher. Tai is fun. He's dangerous, but he is falling behind on the scorecards. He's getting finished."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Big Brady picks Tallison Teixeira by first-round knockout, citing Tai Tuivasa's 0-5 skid and lack of activity (1.5 years out). He notes Teixeira is much bigger and longer with power, and Tuivasa may not be taking his career seriously. Brady expects the fight to end in round one with someone getting served brutally.

Teixeira by KO in round 1
"I'm going to say Terara by first round knockout ... I just can't pick Tai to Vasa."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody is leaning toward Tuivasa as a value play, despite his five-fight losing streak and long layoff. He notes that Teixeira has never been out of the first round and was nearly finished by Derrick Lewis. He believes Tuivasa has the power to knock out anyone and that Teixeira's chin is untested. However, he admits it's a risky pick and not one he's confident in.

"I think I'm just gonna take to Ivasa, but um on Tech Sera, we made picks for the purposes of the show."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Connor picks Tuivasa because he believes Teixeira is raw and not ready for this step up, and that Tuivasa's experience and toughness could carry him. He notes that Tuivasa has fought elite heavyweights and can survive early exchanges, while Teixeira has never been past the first round. However, he acknowledges that Tuivasa has not improved and could still lose.

Odds: Tuivasa +295, Teixeira -370. Connor questions why the odds are widening in favor of Teixeira given his quick loss to Lewis.
"I guess I'm going to take Tuivasa to break this streak. This is the first fight he's had in five fights against somebody with like zero relevant experience."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jan 15, 2026 (17 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Teixeira due to Tuivasa's poor form and weight issues, but he is not confident because Teixeira is unproven and has shown defensive flaws. He notes that Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and may be out of shape, but he is still dangerous. Vreeland calls it a 'lean' and says the minus 300 price is not a great value.

"I'm going to lean towards Tara. Minus 300 ain't much of a lean price though, you know?"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 25, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

James picks Teixeira to win by KO, noting Tuivasa's five-fight losing streak and lack of focus on MMA. He believes Teixeira is a better striker with more weapons, though he has defensive flaws. James thinks Teixeira will finish Tuivasa early, possibly in round one, but acknowledges Tuivasa's puncher's chance.

"I got to go with Teixeira via KO in round one, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Teixeira is a 6'7 BJJ black belt with knockout power, but he can also grapple. Tuivasa is on a five-fight losing streak and seems half-invested in fighting. Teixeira should look to take the fight to the ground where Tuivasa is susceptible to submissions. The host likes Teixeira by submission at +700, noting Tuivasa's vulnerability to submissions. Teixeira's size and physicality will be too much for the fading Tuivasa.

Teixeira by submission (+700)
"I think Terara runs through Tuvasa. ... give me Talison Terara. I'm going to say by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tallison Teixeira

Paul is siding with Teixeira despite not loving the -370 price. He questions Tuivasa's commitment and conditioning after a long layoff and weight gain. He notes that Teixeira is a big heavyweight with power and that Tuivasa has been quitting in recent fights. He expects a first-round knockout either way but prefers the favorite.

"I find hard even with the nice plus money that's behind him, I would find it hard to back him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa despite being an underdog, citing his power, calf kicks, and experience. He believes Tuivasa can drop Teixeira and finish him in the first round, comparing it to a Stephan Struve performance. He acknowledges Teixeira's elbows but thinks Tuivasa's low kicks will be key.

first round TKO, calf kicks as weapon
"I'm going to say that Tituasa gets this one done by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Zane also picks Tuivasa, arguing that Teixeira is a prospect who has never won a fight outside the first round and that Tuivasa is tough enough to not get finished early. He notes that Tuivasa will keep doing the same thing for three rounds if needed, while Teixeira may fall apart if he doesn't get an early finish. However, he calls the fight pointless and bad matchmaking.

Odds: Tuivasa +295, Teixeira -370. Zane comments that the odds are spreading in favor of Teixeira despite his quick loss.
"I think I will too. This is the first fight he's had in five fights against somebody with like zero relevant experience."
Decision (split) (29–28, 27–30, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 37 of 126 29% 37 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 91 of 184 49% 92 of 185 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 9 of 38 23% 9 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 19 of 48 39% 19 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 69 52% 37 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 0 15 of 50 30% 15 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 36 of 67 53% 36 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jairzinho Rozenstruik 37 of 126 29% 19 of 92 6 of 17 12 of 17 37 of 124 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 91 of 184 49% 58 of 146 12 of 16 21 of 22 86 of 177 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 9 of 38 23% 1 of 22 2 of 5 6 of 11 9 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 19 of 48 39% 5 of 32 4 of 6 10 of 10 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 13 of 38 34% 8 of 28 1 of 6 4 of 4 13 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 69 52% 27 of 57 4 of 6 5 of 6 33 of 65 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jairzinho Rozenstruik 15 of 50 30% 10 of 42 3 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 49 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 36 of 67 53% 26 of 57 4 of 4 6 of 6 34 of 64 2 of 3 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jairzinho Rozenstruik vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rozenstruik (-225), Tuivasa (+185)

Round 1
The UFC has thrown the crowd some red meat on the main card in the form of a good old-fashioned heavyweight slobberknocker. While Rozenstruik (14-5, 8-5 UFC) may have the kickboxing background and is a more technical man compared to his opponent, he does not shy away from throwing bungalows when the mood strikes him. Tuivasa (14-7, 8-7 UFC) will feed him that mood as well as several punches, if he has anything to say about it. Referee Marc Goddard buckles up for what is about to come next. Happy as a clam to fight in front of a crowd that is drowning him with adoration, Tuivasa offers a fist bump that is gladly accepted. Rozenstruik moves to the center of the cage to start, and he stays away from a front kick lobbed at him. Rozenstruik snaps out a kick to the lead leg, and he lands one on the inside as well. Tuivasa gives him a kick back to think about, and Rozenstruik counters with a right over the top. Tuivasa kicks him again, and he leans back to dodge it. The Aussie absorbs another low kick and adjusts his shorts, and he sits down on a right hand when Rozenstruik inevitably chops at his front wheel again. Tuivasa uses several feints to draw out wide reactions, and he overkicks to turn himself around. Rozenstruik reaches him with a one-two, and he retreats before getting countered. Tuivasa sells out on another inaccurate kick, and Rozenstruik prods him with a jab. Rozenstruik gets in a left hook and a hard calf kick, and he absorbs a much heavier one coming back. They jab at the same time, and Rozenstruik paws out his left hook to measure. Tuivasa gets a front kick to land on the belly, and he winds up with a right hand and pulls it back as Rozenstruik flinches. Tuivasa chips with kicks on both sides, and he gets off a left hook and is met with a left to the chest. Tuivasa keeps his guard up to block a lead left hook, and he tries to jab his way in only to get met with quicker offense. Tuivasa misses with a low kick and dodges a looping strike in response, but Rozenstruik still gets him in the belly. Rozenstruik kicks his man in the side, and he gets clipped with two big hooks right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 2
The big men touch ‘em up to begin Round 2, and Rozenstruik leads behind several jabs. When Tuivasa tries to do the same, Rozenstruik chews up his front leg. Rozenstruik loads up and smashes Tuivasa in the side of the head with a right hand, and he manages to escape danger by a matter of inches when Tuivasa tries to retaliate. Tuivasa goes after his opponent with a right hand, and Rozenstruik is just out of range. Tuivasa stands firm, cracking Rozenstruik with a right hand, and Tuivasa absorbs a flush knee to the body on the way out. Tuivasa slugs with a right hand, and Rozenstruik turns the corner and strings several punches together. Tuivasa rebounds off the fencing, and he walks face-first into a right hand and a knee. Tuivasa backs his adversary to the wall but is not able to catch him with anything clean, and he is slowly working his way forward. Tuivasa engages with a hard right hand, and he releases a low kick that slams his foot into Rozenstruik’s knee. Tuivasa limps back, and Rozenstruik charges at him and lays into him with a mighty blitz of punches. Tuivasa gets cut on the right side of his face, and he starts firing back, backing Rozenstruik away and hurting him as well. Tuivasa shakes his foot out and struggles to put weight on it. Rozenstruik lines a one-two down the pipe, and a head kick that follows is blocked. Tuivasa catches Rozenstruik ducking down, but it is one-and-done. Rozenstruik lands a few kicks, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik

Round 3
Gloves are touched to kick off the final round, much to the surprise of many that it got this far. Rozenstruik keeps behind his jab to stop Tuivasa from reaching him, and a leg kick after it is also effective. Tuivasa uses his own jab, but it is not able to reach the target. A right hand does, and Rozenstruik counters right back. Tuivasa is out of range of a front kick, and two jabs fall short as well. Rozenstruik snaps the head back with his own jab, and he kicks the body and escapes as Tuivasa lumbers towards him. Tuivasa finds his own with a left and then a right, and Rozenstruik scoots away from any further blows before stabbing out a jab. Tuivasa lands a stance-changing low kick, and he elbows Rozenstruik when Rozenstruik loads up on a left hand. Tuivasa walks through a jab to unload with a right, and Rozenstruik catches him with a right on the inside. Rozenstruik stays composed and watches massive right hands soar past him, and he pushes off with a front kick that adjusts Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa waves Goddard off, and he practically sprints at Rozenstruik with his right hand firing off. Rozenstruik’s head movement keeps him safe, and his jab peppers the Aussie again and again. Rozenstruik shields himself from the telegraphed bombs, and he gets up close and scores a short right hand. As Tuivasa goes wide, Rozenstruik pretends to smooth out his hair—he is bald, so it is a mocking gesture. Rozenstruik plods out with front kicks and jabs, keeping Tuivasa from getting his hands on him. Tuivasa sells out with big punches, and he points the ground to force a brawl. Rozenstruik does the same, and they blast one another with ferocious punches. This continues right to the final horn, and they have made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rozenstruik (30-27 Rozenstruik)

The Official Result
Jairzinho Rozenstruik def. Tai Tuivasa via Split Decision (29-28, 27-30, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Angelo picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik because he is a great counter striker who will step off and land big on Tai Tuivasa, who overcommits and has a compromised chin. He notes that Tuivasa has been knocked down in four straight fights and that Rozenstruik's technique will be the difference. He expects a one-punch knockout and will look for prop value.

Will wait for prop bets to see value
"I see him stepping off Landing big on Tai I think Tai is going to lose and luckily I don't think it matters."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Big Brady picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes the matchmaking for giving Tuivasa a tough fight when he is on a four-fight skid and a fan favorite in Australia. He believes Rozenstruik is the better striker and that Tuivasa is very hittable and has been getting hurt in fights. He expects Rozenstruik to knock him out in the second round. He notes both fighters are likely to stand and bang, making it an entertaining fight.

knockout in round 2
"I got to go Rosen stro I think Rosen str's a better Striker tied to Evas he's very hitable um he's been getting hurt in a lot of fights I think Rosen probably knocks him out in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Cody points to Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak, declining durability, and lack of recent power, while Rozenstruik is coming off a win and has a style that can pick Tuivasa apart from range. He notes Rozenstruik's volume and leg kicks will be key, and that Tuivasa's heart may not be in it anymore. Cody expects a decision or late stoppage for Rozenstruik.

"I got to go with Logic on this one and say that Rosen structur that points him from range"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Vreeland picks Rozenstruik, citing his recent win showing he still has something left. He notes Tuivasa has lost four straight and lacks durability. He suggests the knockout prop for better odds, as Rozenstruik has power to finish.

Knockout prop (recommended for better line)
"give me biggie boy probably gonna knock him out you may like The Knockout prop on this fight if you want to get a better line on it"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

Daniel Vreeland picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik to win, citing Tuivasa's four-fight losing streak and questionable camp. He acknowledges that Tuivasa has knockout power and that the fight could go either way, but believes Rozenstruik is the cleaner striker with better cardio. Vreeland notes that he might bet Tuivasa as a dog but is leaning toward Rozenstruik for the pick.

"I'm gonna go with Jero but like I've seen Jero get slept more than once is it gonna surprise me if he gets slept here not at all but P pick I'mma agree with uh him being the favorite here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Fox picks Tuivasa, believing he can land a big shot if he backs Rozenstruik to the cage. He criticizes Rozenstruik's performance against Gajiev, noting he backed up and won by TKO due to Gajiev's poor cardio. Fox thinks Tuivasa's one-touch power and lack of takedown threat give him a chance.

"give me taasa I'm gonna believe one more time"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The host is confident in Rozenstruik, citing his technical striking superiority and jab. He expects Rozenstruik to control the pace and knock out Tuivasa, who he sees as a one-dimensional knockout-or-bust fighter. He acknowledges the heavyweight volatility but feels stylistically Rozenstruik is far superior.

Rozenstruik by knockout
"give me Rosen strike and Rosen strike by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul acknowledges Tuivasa's losing streak and durability concerns but believes the crowd and the matchup favor him as a banger. He notes that both fighters are strikers and that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance, especially in front of an Australian crowd. Paul calls it a 'dogger pass' type of fight and leans toward Tuivasa as a live underdog.

"it's pretty clearly dogger pass type of uh type of fight for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jairzinho Rozenstruik

The MMA Guru picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik over Tai Tuivasa. He criticizes Tuivasa's lack of discipline and commitment, noting he has lost four in a row, including a first-round finish to Martin Tybura. He believes Rozenstruik is a more technical kickboxer with a good jab and inside leg kicks. He notes Tuivasa is hittable and has been finished before. He expects Rozenstruik to land more and win.

"I'm going to go with jinho rosenstrike I'm just not going to trust in Tito evasa anymore"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

watching line movement; hopes for better odds
"tybor is the underdog pick here I am going to watch the line movement a lot of these fights I'm watching the line movement"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

by first round knockout
"Give me a taiu iasa first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

by KO
"I feel like I want to go Tai Tuivasa... I just got like a nagging suspicion that Tai's power is just too much for him he crumples him up early."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

"I can see Ty knocking him out in round one for sure but I can also see Tor just weathering the storm and just coming in as the more reliable heavyweight..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

arm triangle choke
"I think Toro will come up short against the Tom Aspen of the world but we've seen him take some big shots from guys like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris as well as Ben Rothwell and he rolls well with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

by KO
"I'm picking Tai as well I think Tai by knockout... in those first seven and a half minutes or so he's if he does try to close distance he's going to be eating shots trying to do so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

round one or two KO
"I'm going to go with round two or one KO for tyu evasa... I think tuivasa is going to capitalize chopping that car early and then started to bring it upstairs."
Submission (Ezekiel choke) R2 4:37 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 28 of 67 41% 30 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 93 of 143 65% 107 of 164 0 of 1 0% 1 0 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 15 of 39 38% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 51 of 83 61% 53 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Alexander Volkov 0 13 of 28 46% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 42 of 60 70% 54 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:28
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 28 of 67 41% 4 of 31 7 of 9 17 of 27 26 of 65 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 93 of 143 65% 65 of 110 18 of 21 10 of 12 72 of 115 3 of 3 18 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 15 of 39 38% 0 of 16 5 of 7 10 of 16 15 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 51 of 83 61% 29 of 56 13 of 16 9 of 11 50 of 82 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Volkov 13 of 28 46% 4 of 15 2 of 2 7 of 11 11 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 42 of 60 70% 36 of 54 5 of 5 1 of 1 22 of 33 2 of 2 18 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)

Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov

Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.

Half unit parlay with Justin Tafa at plus money
"I've got to go volkov here but I imagine the rest of the community and myself are also going to be rooting for Tai tuivasa to get a one punch knockout walk off I don't see it happening"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.

"I'm gonna pick the dog and tie to evoss and to land a big shot and knock out Alexander volkov here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes (later moved to 31.5) on Prize Picks
"the official pick I think has to be volkov on the basis of superior Striker better volume better grappling better cardio uh man it's heavyweight Paul so I'm gonna take volkov but again as far as parlays go I need …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.

Odds mentioned: Volkov minus 250, Tuivasa plus 210. Levi says he is not putting his money on it.
"As a pure pick I'm gonna go on the opposite side and take volkov uh just like you said more volume more ways to win but it's not a confident pick I'm not putting my money on it and I'm …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.

"I think Alexander volkov is quite safe in this spot I think volkov is levels above title of us"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.

Volkov by KO
"give me volkov uh volkov to win impressively here and I think he does it by KO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.

Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks
"I think from a betting perspective it's tired it's it's Stewie vosser past maybe it's just like my heart's in it because I'm a shoe Aficionado as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.

TKO in round 2 via front kick to the body
"I'm gonna go Alexander volkov TKO round two"
KO (punches) R1 0:54 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sergei Pavlovich 0 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 2 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sergei Pavlovich 0 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 2 23 of 44 52% 23 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sergei Pavlovich 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 23 of 44 52% 23 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32 1 of 4 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sergei Pavlovich 2 of 10 20% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 23 of 44 52% 23 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 32 1 of 4 6 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sergei Pavlovich vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-210), Tuivasa (+180)

Round 1
Referee Dan Miragliotta will have his work cut out for him in this heavyweight collision, as Tuivasa (14-4, 8-4 UFC) and Pavlovich (16-1, 4-1 UFC) combine for 26 knockouts in their 30 wins, with no submissions to either’s credit. The triumphant big man here might be the closest of all the 30 competitors this evening to a title shot, and this potential brawl is preceded by a clap of hands and a hug. Pavlovich moves in to the center of the cage, pushing out jabs, and he lifts his leg to avoid a low kick. The Russian walks forward to throw hands, and he stings Tuivasa with a few punches, only for “Bam Bam” to swing right back and hurt Pavlovich. The power of Pavlovich cannot be denied, as he blasts Tuivasa with ferocious punches, tearing Tuivasa’s skin open with the impact of his fists. Tuivasa hit the ground, and springs back up while blood starts pouring out of the left side of his eye, and Pavlovich’s accurate and straight punches find the mark while Tuivasa swings wildly.
Tuivasa wings a left hand, and Pavlovich tags his man twice and drills an uppercut that knocks the Aussie clear off his feet. When Tuivasa hits the mat on his face, Pavlovich drives home a few academic punches to make sure the job is done, and Tuivasa continues to leak crimson fluid all over the mat while Pavlovich beats on him. Miragliotta intervenes when it is clear that Tuivasa is done here and teetering on the edge of consciousness
, and Pavlovich may have just earned the biggest win of his career and placed himself right in top contendership position. This performance unquestionably sends a message to the rest of the heavyweights that this brick-fisted Russian is a force to be reckoned with.

The Official Result
Sergei Pavlovich def. Tai Tuivasa R1 0:54 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa, citing his better leg kicks and chin. He notes both fighters have zero takedowns in the UFC, so it will be a striking match. He thinks Tuivasa's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges heavyweights can end anytime. He won't bet either side but recommends using Monkey Knife Fight's Knockout Kings prop because one of them will get knocked out.

Recommends Knockout Kings prop (both fighters in same pick, one wins by KO/TKO); won't bet moneyline
"I like Ty to do what he does which is come forward throw heavy and then just blast beer out of some dirty ass shoe in the audience"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Big Brady picks Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his nine-inch reach advantage, power, and forward pressure. He notes Tuivasa has been knocked out before and Pavlovich has five first-round finishes in the UFC. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Pavlovich lands first.

Pavlovich wins by KO, round 1
"I think pavlovich knocks out to ivassa in the first round... five first round Knockouts in a row and I expect a fifth one here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody agrees with Paul, citing Tuivasa's durability, power, and ability to weather early storms. He notes Pavlovich has never been tested past the first round and questions his cardio. He sees Tuivasa as a live dog with a legitimate shot.

under 5 minutes fight time on PrizePicks
"I think I'm kind of leaning towards tied to ivassa I see his path to losing 100 the counter to that is what do you know against Sergey pavlovich without a super Jack he's got big Power he can bring …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

Daniel Levi leans Pavlovich based on momentum, massive reach advantage (84 inches), and confidence. He acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power and the possibility of an upset, especially if the fight extends past the first round. He is not betting but expects an entertaining stand-up war.

"based on the momentum based on that massive reach and based on the confidence that pavlovich probably has right now I'm going to lean with him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The host leans towards Pavlovich, believing he has more paths to victory, including potentially using takedowns. He likes the over 1.5 rounds at plus 170, thinking both fighters will respect each other's power and the fight could go into the second or third round. He is cautious about betting heavy on a heavyweight fight due to volatility.

over 1.5 rounds +170; Pavlovich by decision
"I do believe pavlovich has more paths to Victory here but I just can't get tied up to that minus 195 line considering tuivasa his leg kicks and the power that he possesses"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul loves Tuivasa at plus money. He notes Pavlovich's low-level competition and questions his cardio. He thinks Tuivasa's durability and power make him live, especially if the fight goes past the first round. He also mentions the under 5 minutes on PrizePicks.

under 5 minutes fight time on PrizePicks; fight ends in round 1
"give me the dog give me Thai to ivassa at plus 185 all day of the week"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Sergei Pavlovich

The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich despite loving Tai Tuivasa. He notes Tuivasa took heavy damage against Cyril Gane and is returning too soon, while Pavlovich has devastating power and a huge reach advantage (84 inches vs 75). He predicts Pavlovich will land a big shot and finish Tuivasa in the first round.

Pavlovich by TKO (round 1)
"I'm going Sergey pavlovich and it hurts"
LOSS vs Ciryl Gane
KO (punches) R3 4:23 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ciryl Gane 1 110 of 168 65% 110 of 168 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 1 29 of 89 32% 29 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ciryl Gane 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Ciryl Gane 0 41 of 65 63% 41 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 1 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Ciryl Gane 1 53 of 72 73% 53 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Tai Tuivasa 0 8 of 23 34% 8 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ciryl Gane 110 of 168 65% 64 of 110 30 of 40 16 of 18 108 of 166 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 29 of 89 32% 17 of 61 4 of 9 8 of 19 26 of 84 1 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ciryl Gane 16 of 31 51% 5 of 16 3 of 5 8 of 10 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 6 of 26 23% 2 of 13 1 of 2 3 of 11 6 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Ciryl Gane 41 of 65 63% 24 of 43 11 of 16 6 of 6 41 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 15 of 40 37% 12 of 32 1 of 4 2 of 4 12 of 35 1 of 3 2 of 2
3 Ciryl Gane 53 of 72 73% 35 of 51 16 of 19 2 of 2 51 of 70 0 of 0 2 of 2
Tai Tuivasa 8 of 23 34% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ciryl Gane vs. Tai Tuivasa
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gane (-540), Tuivasa (+420)

Round 1
Depending on how this headliner shakes out, a title shot may loom for one of the victors. While former interim beltholder Gane (10-1, 7-1 UFC) would certainly like another crack at Francis Ngannou, he first has to deal with the surging brawler Tuivasa (14-3, 8-3 UFC), who has won five straight fights by knockout. Gane will need to keep his wits about him, and referee Marc Goddard will too so that he avoids any possible errant blows from the two strikers. The fists are bumped, Gane pats Tuivasa in the face, the cage door is locked, and it’s time for the main event! Tuivasa ignores an early leg kick so that he can try to close the distance and solve the rangy puzzle that is the Frenchman, but he does not throw much. Tuivasa absorbs another low kick, and he fires one back, forcing Gane to awkwardly recoil his own leg. Gane jabs with his foot, and he sits down on a kick to the body with his other leg. Tuivasa stalks Gane down but cannot corner him, although he does get off another leg kick that he turns his hips into. Gane catches “Bam Bam” coming forward with a swatting right hook, disrupting the offense Tuivasa was able to release. Gane comfortably pokes and jabs, and the crowd serenades him with the French National Anthem. Tuivasa starts laughing, and Gane appreciates it and ducks a massive haymaker. A leg kick from the Aussie gets checked, and he swings heavily to close in. Gane blocks most of the strikes, taking one flush, and otherwise keeping his preferred range. The crowd chants loudly for their fighter, and Tuivasa is unable to do much to deflate the crowd. Gane slips a leg kick and releases a body kick. Tuivasa responds, and he just misses an overhand right by a whisker. Gane sticks out a jab and goes after a head kick, and the kick slams into Tuivasa’s guard…he feels it. Tuivasa hand-fights to get in on Gane, and Gane is elusive as he snaps out a front kick. The Aussie lunges with two punches, and Gane skirts out the side and lightly taps his foe’s calf with a kick. The horn sounds to end this sparring match of a round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 2
The heavyweight headliners touch ‘em up to start the second round, and Tuivasa slaps the thigh with a kick. Gane responds with one to the inner thigh, and he snaps out a jab. As Tuivasa looks to weave forward, Gane splits the guard with another jab, shutting down the offense before it comes. Tuivasa trips his man up as he comes forward, but it is simply that their legs are tangled. “Bam Bam” advances and wings a right hand, and it glances off the dome as Gane moves away from it. Gane front kicks his man and flicks out a jab, with a low but consistent pace that frustrates the brawler. The crowd grows restless as the approach of these two big men, and Tuivasa absorbs their energy by releasing a right hand that slams into Gane’s face. Gane smiles, and the two high-five after the exchange. Gane scores a low kick and a pair of jabs, and Tuivasa follows him along only to walk into a straight left hand. Tuivasa leans back when a high kick is unloaded, and he cuts Gane off with three short left hooks. Gane pushes through the guard with a jab and shoots in for a takedown, but the Aussie is a brick wall and shoves him back. Tuivasa is extremely mad by the exchange, and he winds up with a monster right hand that sends Gane crashing to the mat. Gane crawls to the side, and Tuivasa looks to hop on the side and pound him out. Gane survives and manages to back off, and Tuivasa gives chase and gets clipped with a right hand. Gane targets the body with impunity, kicking the body several times until Tuivasa bends over. Tuivasa is hurt but still dangerous, as swings with all his might, and he manages to crack Gane again. When Gane retreats, he jabs out to the body, and Tuivasa is hurt once more. The crowd is going wild as these two keep hurting one another, and Tuivasa blasts Gane with another overhand right. Gane blinks it out and works the body even more, and Tuivasa signals to the crowd to give it up for them. They do, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tuivasa
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Gane
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gane

Round 3
They touch fists to start off the third round, having spent the last minute recovering and retooling their gameplans. Tuivasa actively attacks the lead leg, and Gane strings together a few punches on Tuivasa’s iron chin. Tuivasa chops at the leg, and Gane kicks the body and may have grazed the cup. Tuivasa complains, but Goddard tells them to keep working, and Tuivasa grabs his cup and shakes it. They resume combat, and Gane measures his man with sharp front kicks as Tuivasa takes a deep breath. Gane loads up on a liver kick, and Tuivasa just watches it land. “Bam Bam” ducks in for a punch to the body, and Gane sticks out several jabs. Tuivasa turns to his side as he misses with a kick, and he sprints back to the fence and bounces off it like a professional wrestler. Gane high-fives him, and he then kicks Tuivasa in the face. Tuivasa eats it like Vegemite on toast and immediately absorbs one more, and he wobbles back. He might be playing possum, as he leans back and winds up an enormous right hand that buzzes Gane’s dome. The Frenchman kicks him two more times right in the head, and Tuivasa is stunned but still swinging everything he has in hopes of catching Gane. Gane keeps tagging Tuivasa with his rangy blows, and Tuivasa shakes his head every so often and loads up on what Quinton Jackson would call “bungalows.” Gane largely avoids them, but he still cannot quite evade every one. Tuivasa marches forward, and Gane smacks him in the face with a standing back fist. As Tuivasa slows, Gane feed his man a steady diet of front kicks to the body, and Tuivasa bends over again in pain but is still on his feet. Gane knows that Tuivasa is fading, and he lets loose with a right hook square on the chin that puts Tuivasa on ice skates.
The Aussie is tough but his consciousness is fading, and Gane unloads a bombardment of five vicious punches including an arcing hammerfist that send Tuivasa crashing down to the canvas. Goddard is about to step in, so “Bon Gamin” makes sure he does by hammering Tuivasa with two devastating punches, putting a cap on a sensational performance after a spectacular fight.
The Accor Arena, which might have already set decibel records in the city tonight, shatters those with raucous cheers and applause for its home country fighter. France ends the night at 5-0 against foreign opponents, with each one making a statement, but none more massive than Gane. The French fighter celebrates with his family, who flood the cage in support of the victor. The triumphant Gane only one has target: the title, which currently sits around the waist of former opponent Francis Ngannou. Even though Ngannou is in the building, he does not enter the cage, as he may not want to take away from Gane’s moment. The crowd is in the palm of Gane’s large hand, and the UFC should know once and for all it has a star on its hands. Next week, the UFC is going to try to cash in on a pair of other stars, and we will be here for it with UFC 279. We hope you are too. Vive la France!

The Official Result
Ciryl Gane def. Tai Tuivasa R3 4:23 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Angelo picks Ciryl Gane because of his technical striking, footwork, and ability to work in takedowns against powerful strikers. He expects Gane to make Tuivasa swing at air and likely win a one-sided clinic. He notes Tuivasa is always live for a knockout but Gane won't be there to hit. No prop bets because lines are too short.

No prop bets; lines too short (take down -700, significant strike -600)
"cyril gone is absolutely the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Big Brady picks Ciryl Gane to win by submission in the fourth round. He notes that Gane is better in every aspect except pure power, and that Tuivasa's best chance is in the first round and a half. He expects Gane to survive the early storm, then take over with takedowns and ground control, eventually submitting a tired Tuivasa. He mentions that Gane may also finish by ground and pound or body shots.

submission in the fourth round
"i like gone to win i'll say by submission in the fourth round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Cody picks Ciryl Gane, emphasizing Gane's superior footwork, lateral movement, and ability to avoid big shots. He notes that Gane has faced heavy hitters like Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou without taking significant damage, and that Tai Tuivasa's leg kicks may slow Gane's movement but Gane will counter with his jab. Cody also highlights Gane's durability and the fact that Tuivasa has never fought five rounds, predicting a late finish by Gane in round 4 or 5. He mentions that the best value is the over 2.5 rounds at -130, as both fighters are cautious early.

Over 2.5 rounds (-130); Gane wins in round 4 (+1200) or round 5 (+1700)
"I'm picking gone... I think gone probably finishes them off in either round four or round five."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Daniel Levi picks Ciryl Gane to win, acknowledging he should be the rightful favorite due to size, athleticism, and potential grappling advantage. He notes Gane's unorthodox leg locks and range striking as key factors, but is wary of laying the -600 price. He mentions Tai Tuivasa's puncher's chance and power, but ultimately sides with Gane. He suggests Gane by submission as a prop, but does not bet the moneyline himself.

Gane by submission; Tuivasa by KO at +500; fight doesn't go to decision; over 1.5 rounds
"I think he's minus 600 for a reason even if I'm not gonna lay that price"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The host is very confident in Gane, believing his movement, footwork, and range control will neutralize Tuivasa's power. He expects Gane to potentially take the fight to the ground and look for a submission. He suggests a sprinkle on Gane by submission at plus 420, predicting a second-round finish.

Gane by submission (plus 420), Gane by submission round 2
"Give me Cyril Gane by submission second round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

Paul picks Ciryl Gane, agreeing with Cody that Gane's durability and ability to pick Tuivasa apart at range are key. He hates the -600 price but believes Gane will avoid a brawl and win. Paul also notes that Tuivasa's only path is a knockout, but Gane's movement and reach should neutralize that threat.

"Gone is my pick hate minus 600 in literally any heavyweight fight but durability is on point... should be able to just pick Tuivasa apart at range and avoid the big shots."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Ciryl Gane

The MMA Guru picks Ciryl Gane over Tai Tuivasa, citing Gane's significant reach advantage (8 inches) and his light footwork. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power and the 'Samoan bone density' factor but believes Gane's chin is underrated, as he absorbed shots from Derrick Lewis and Francis Ngannou. He predicts Gane will pick Tuivasa apart at range with jabs, teeps, and leg kicks, then finish him in the fourth round with elbows or knees. He notes that Gane is still improving and had eight months off to train.

Gane wins by TKO in round 4
"i think he's just gonna pick a tyre win the range game swollen swell up the eye of tyre with a jab bust up his nose with a jab"
WIN vs Derrick Lewis
KO (elbow) R2 1:40 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 43 62% 31 of 47 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:48
Derrick Lewis 1 24 of 36 66% 35 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 16 of 24 66% 20 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:24
Derrick Lewis 0 14 of 21 66% 25 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:06
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:24
Derrick Lewis 1 10 of 15 66% 10 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 43 62% 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 21 8 of 12 8 of 10
Derrick Lewis 24 of 36 66% 12 of 22 9 of 9 3 of 5 8 of 14 16 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 16 of 24 66% 14 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 6 5 of 8 8 of 10
Derrick Lewis 14 of 21 66% 3 of 8 9 of 9 2 of 4 3 of 5 11 of 16 0 of 0
2 Tai Tuivasa 11 of 19 57% 10 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 15 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derrick Lewis 10 of 15 66% 9 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 9 5 of 6 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Derrick Lewis vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
A knockout is almost certainly on the menu in this heavyweight clash between beloved big men weighing a total of 531 pounds – one shy of the limit for two men in a UFC cage. Proud Houston native Lewis (26-8, 1 NC; 17-6 UFC) will look to thrill his home crowd, and he will do against willing brawler Tuivasa (13-3, 7-3 UFC). The betting line for this fight going to decision is a massive +425, and a prop for either fighter winning by knockout is -390. Referee Dan Miragliotta will need to stay ready for as long as this fight goes on, preparing himself to intervene at a moment’s notice. Tuivasa may be grinning, but Lewis is the face of intensity; they still do touch gloves. Lewis claims the center of the cage first, as Tuivasa walks around the edge trying to feint his way in. “Bam Bam” reaches out with jabs to the head and body that are well short of the mark, but he does get off a heavy leg kick as Lewis reaches for it. Lewis just misses a looping right hand as Tuivasa crashes forward to clinch up, and the Aussie starts kneeing Lewis’ thighs while pressing him into the wall. The fans begin to react negatively as Tuivasa holds on to this clinch position, with little else besides fence-mashing going on until Miragliotta rather quickly steps in to separate them. Lewis lets go with a head kick, but Tuivasa blocks it right in time. A Lewis flying knee makes Tuivasa back off, and Tuivasa chops down his lead leg to make him slip when Lewis lands. Lewis’ forward momentum shoves the two into the wire, and Lewis changes levels for a single-leg takedown entry. Tuivasa stands him up and elbows him in the face a few times, and Lewis surprises him with an inside trip that shakes the very foundation of the cage itself when they smash into the ground. Lewis starts unloading with brutal right hands, and Tuivasa is hurt but full of determination to stand back up. When the Aussie stands, he throws everything he has back at Lewis, in an effort to start a slugfest. Lewis protects himself from most of them, lands his own, and gets pushed up to the wall. “The Black Beast” hits a throw and drops Tuivasa back to the mat in a surprising display of grappling prowess, but Tuivasa is not settling to stay down. Tuivasa powers his way back up and knees Lewis in the body, and he holds on to the top of the fencing as he knees Lewis in the gut. The round ends in this tight clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lewis
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lewis

Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off Round 2, and Tuivasa comes out with a big smile on his face. Lewis absorbs a leg kick and just misses with a huge right hand, and he hobbles off after taking the kick but could be playing possum. Lewis loads up with a few powerful punches, stinging Tuivasa and knocking him back all the way from one side of the cage to the other after salvo of punches. Lewis tries to take him down, and Tuivasa remains upright and just misses a knee to the face. They begin to start brawling, with no defense and all power strikes. Tuivasa walks through a flurry, chomps down on his gumshield, and blasts Lewis in the face with a salvo of powerful punches. Lewis takes the brunt of the shots on the chin, and suddenly he is hurt! Tuivasa gets off a blistering elbow in close range, swinging with all his might with a few more punches to follow. Right in Lewis’ face, Tuivasa smashes “The Black Beast” with an elbow that wrecks Lewis. The Houstonian crumples, his knees giving way as he falls face-first to the ground. Miragliotta takes a second to realize that Lewis is out cold, and he jumps in to stop the fight. What an unbelievable knockout for an instant title contender, one who has won five in a row by knockout, but none bigger than this one. Leaping on the cage to celebrate his work in what has become a victory tradition, Tuivasa pours a beer into a shoe and chugs it. The UFC has a star on its hands here.

The Official Result
Tai Tuivasa def. Derrick Lewis R2 1:40 via KO (Elbow)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tuivasa, believing he is the better striker with leg kicks that can slow down Lewis. He thinks Tuivasa's chin is good enough to absorb one big shot from Lewis. He acknowledges that Lewis is always live for a knockout but expects Tuivasa to chop down the tree with leg kicks.

"i like tai tuivasa to chop down the tree with those leg kicks but if that dude ends up flatlined like any other derrick lewis fight it would not be surprising but tai tuivasa is the pick here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Big Brady thinks Lewis will win by knockout, as Tuivasa's brawling style plays into Lewis's power. He notes Lewis has been finished by top heavyweights like Gane and JDS, but Tuivasa is not on that level. He expects a first round knockout but admits he can't be too confident in a heavyweight fight. He mentions Lewis's low volume but effective striking.

Lewis by first round knockout
"i'm going to take derek lewis to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Cody picks Lewis, citing his proven power and resume against top heavyweights. He notes Tuivasa's wins are over lower-level opponents and that he has been rocked before. He expects Tuivasa to come out aggressive but Lewis to land the cleaner shot and finish him, possibly in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds -175
"i think derek lewis gets back on track in his hometown after a bit of a letdown against cyril gone"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Daniel Levi picks Derrick Lewis to win, but acknowledges the appeal of Tai Tuivasa as a dog. He notes that Lewis has a history of coming back in fights and that his athleticism is underrated. Levi also mentions that Tuivasa is a more talented kickboxer at range and could land low kicks, but Lewis's momentum and power are key. He says he won't talk anyone off a shot of Tuivasa.

"I'm gonna go with derrick lewis to win this fight but i'm not gonna talk anyone off a shot of tai to ivasa"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Both fighters have knockout power, but Lewis has the hometown advantage and has shown durability. Tuivasa has leg kicks but Lewis only needs one punch. The fight likely ends in the first round. Lewis by first-round KO is the pick, but it's not a lock due to Tuivasa's own power.

under 1.5 rounds; fight doesn't start round 2; Lewis by KO in round 1
"i'm going derrick lewis and i think he gets it done in front of his hometown via first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

Paul expects a wild brawl but leans Lewis due to his experience against top competition and proven power. He notes Tuivasa is still green and has been rocked in fights, while Lewis has fought and beaten elite heavyweights. He thinks Lewis will catch Tuivasa with a more meaningful shot, likely in the first round.

under 1.5 rounds -175
"i think derek lewis gets back on track in his hometown after a bit of a letdown against cyril gone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Derrick Lewis

The MMA Guru picks Derrick Lewis by first-round KO, citing his power advantage and durability. He expects a back-and-forth slugfest but believes Lewis will land the cleaner shot.

first round ko
"i'm going to go with derek lewis here over titu ivasa"
Louie Sutherland - Fight History
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tai Tuivasa 0 13 of 22 59% 27 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Louie Sutherland 0 21 of 25 84% 111 of 130 5 of 11 45% 0 2 11:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tai Tuivasa 0 6 of 9 66% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 12 75% 32 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 1 3:40
2 Tai Tuivasa 0 3 of 4 75% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Louie Sutherland 0 7 of 7 100% 42 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:36
3 Tai Tuivasa 0 4 of 9 44% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:32
Louie Sutherland 0 5 of 6 83% 37 of 44 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:29
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tai Tuivasa 13 of 22 59% 12 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 9 5 of 5 6 of 8
Louie Sutherland 21 of 25 84% 15 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 7 7 of 9 4 of 5 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tai Tuivasa 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 9 of 12 75% 7 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 5 3 of 3
2 Tai Tuivasa 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 3 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 7 of 7 100% 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 5
3 Tai Tuivasa 4 of 9 44% 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Louie Sutherland 5 of 6 83% 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 3
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Louie Sutherland vs. Tai Tuivasa

Round 1
The main card opener features a couple of big men in desperate need of a win, in the form of Tuivasa (14-9; 8-9 UFC), who is on a four-fight skid, and Sutherland (10-5; 0-2 UFC), who is winless in two tries in the Octagon. The third man in the cage will be Rich Mitchell. The heavyweights touch gloves, then set up in matchin orthodox stances. Sutherland touches with a calf kick, then another. Sutherland drops levels and rushes forward in search of a takedown. Tuivasa allows himself to be backed up to the fence, where he defends with a front headlock. Sutherland gives up on the takedown and they go back to work on the feet. Sutherland changes levels again and puts Tuivasa on his seat with a double-leg. Tuivasa refuses to concede the takedown, however, scooting on his butt all the way to the fence, grabbing another guillotine and returning to his feet. Tuivasa shucks him off and connects with a flurry of punches on the break. Sutherland is hurt, and Tuivasa nails him with an elbow to the head, followed by a knee. Sutherland grabs hold of Tuivasa and hustles him to the ground with what amounts to a shove, then takes top position. At the midpoint of Round 1, it’s Sutherland on top, dropping short punches and elbows. Tuivasa is working to defend his face and get back to his feet, but Sutherland is heavy on top and very methodical, pulling the Aussie’s base out from under him. Under a minute to go and the Perth crowd grows restive, but Sutherland is plenty active on top, throwing constant punches from half guard. The horn sounds. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 2
Sutherland lands first with an inside low kick. Tuivasa responds with a leg kick of his own. Sutherland shoots for a takedown but Tuivasa uses an underhook to stand him back up as they collide with the fence. Sutherland re-shoots and gets the takedown. Tuivasa powers to his feet and Sutherland tosses him back down, then follows, landing in side control. Sutherland is heavy on top, dropping short punches to the body while keeping within striking distance of an arm-triangle choke. Sutherland grinds an elbow into Tuivasa’s head. The partisan crowd is chanting “stand ‘em up” despite Sutherland being in side control, but he slides into full mount. Sutherland continues to deliver a steady stream of short punches and elbows while moving back to side control. Tuivasa stands back up with 90 seconds left, but Sutherland drives him back to the ground a moment later. Tuivasa is turtled at the base of the fence, controlling Sutherland’s left hand with both of his own. Sutherland sinks a single hook, moves to Tuivasa’s back and appears to be hunting for a choke. Tuivasa bucks straight into a guilllotine attempt a few seconds before the horn. 10-9 Sutherland.

Round 3
Sutherland is almost certainly up two rounds to none as the heavies come out for Round 3. Both men actually look pretty fresh considering what a grueling fight it’s been, but Sutherland quickly gets another easy takedown. “The Vanilla Gorilla” sets up in side control, and Mitchell is warning him to stay busy. Sutherland is staying busy, as he did in Rounds 1 and 2, throwing a steady stream of strikes while looking to gradually move to an even more dominant position. Tuivasa bucks, scrambles and gets to all fours, where Sutherland moves to back control, but Tuivasa goes to his back and regains half guard. Sutherland is heavy on top, pelting Tuivasa with little right hands, flattening him out and looking to pass his guard. With a minute to go, Mitchell stands them up. Sutherland tries some kind of spin or roll, collides with a Tuivasa knee and falls to his back. Tuivasa pounces and taked top position, hammering Sutherland with a couple of big punches, then nails him with a flagrantly illegal knee to the head while they are grounded. A few seconds later the final horn sounds, while Mitchell instructs the judges to deduct a point from Tuivasa for the foul. 10-8 Sutherland (30-26 Sutherland).

The Official Result
Louie Sutherland def. Tai Tuivasa via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 30-26)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.

No odds yet; hopes for affordable line to bet.
"Tai's going to be the pick. I hope Tai has a little more cardio than he did in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.

Tuivasa by decision
"I'll go Tuivasa by decision, though."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.

KO prop
"Tai for all of Tai's faults. It's like if you're gonna knock him out, you got to probably be a top guy... I do feel like Tai gets back in the win column."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.

"I think it's comeback season, my friends. ... give me Tu Iasa to snap the big skid and uh to get back on track."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.

"It's a very tricky fight whichever way you approach this one from a betting point of view."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Sutherland here. Uh, and Sutherland by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.

KO prop
"Tai Knockout is like very fair, I think. Like, like we know Tai's not very unlikely to be get a sub be getting a sub in this fight and is like his his KO props like minus 115. It's basically …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.

win in round one
"I'm going to go Tai Tuivasa coming in at 264. He's pulling off a big weight cut here um for this one. I'm going to go with Tai Tuivasa getting the job done."
KO R1 1:48 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Brando Peričić 0 19 of 26 73% 34 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Louie Sutherland 0 9 of 18 50% 9 of 18 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:40
Brando Peričić 0 19 of 26 73% 34 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Louie Sutherland 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
Brando Peričić 19 of 26 73% 13 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 9 9 of 10 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Louie Sutherland 9 of 18 50% 5 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0
Brando Peričić 19 of 26 73% 13 of 20 6 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 9 9 of 10 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brando Pericic vs. Louie Sutherland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pericic (-270); Sutherland (+220)

Round 1
Marc Goddard is the referee. Pericic with a front kick. Sutherland lands a right and then unleashes a barrage of punches as he blitzes forward. Pericic counters with a knee and Sutherland looks for a takedown, which he briefly secures. Pericic hustles to his feet in short order. Back at range, Sutherland lands a right and then explodes for a takedown across the cage. Pericic is right back to his feet once again. Sutherland rushes in with punches, but Pericic answers with a series of knees and power punches, and Sutherland hits the canvas. Sutherland covers up on all fours and eats a flurry of strikes. Goddard is taking a close look but the Brit gets to his feet. It’s only a momentary reprieve, however, as Pericic pushes his man back down to the floor.
Sutherland shells up, and the Aussie unleashes a few more unanswered shots before Goddard waves off the fight.
That’s back-to-back first-round finishes for Pericic in his first two UFC appearances.

The Official Result
Brando Pericic def. Louie Sutherland via TKO (Punches) R1 1:48
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Angelo picks Brando Peričić based on his professional kickboxing background, athleticism, and size. He admits both fighters are relatively untested at UFC level, but assumes the faster, cleaner, more athletic kickboxer will win. He notes the -260 odds are probably fair but expresses caution due to lack of data.

odds comment: -260 probably worth it but cautious
"I'm basically blindly picking Brando here. ... I have to assume that the faster, the cleaner, the bigger, the more athletic professional kickboxer is going to win here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Big Brady confidently picks Brando Peričić, stating that Peričić has actual skills while Louie Sutherland doesn't seem good at anything. He notes that Peričić trains at City Kickboxing, has good striking, can mix in takedowns, and has good ground and pound. He expects Peričić to pick apart Sutherland and win a decision, though he warns that heavyweight fights can get greasy.

Brando Peričić by decision
"Give me the guy that has skills. And it's not too often we see guys in the heavyweight division with some skills behind him."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Cody picks Peričić, noting his kickboxing base and Sutherland's lack of wrestling. He expects a finish but warns about jet lag.

"Barono Perich not going to need it because it ain't going to get out of the first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brando Peričić

Connor leans toward Peričić, agreeing that his straight punches and size advantage should beat Sutherland's brawling. He notes that Sutherland has never been beaten by striking, only by wrestling, but Peričić's technical edge and clinch work could be decisive. Connor also warns that Peričić is raw and could get caught.

Odds comment: Peričić opened +160, now -255; Sutherland opened -185, now +215.
"Yeah, I think there's actually some flex in Perisic's game. In addition to him just being like a bigger, more technical striker."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Daniel leans Peričić but is not high on him. He thinks Peričić has an edge on the mat and in the clinch, but the line is too high. He expects the fight to go over 1.5 rounds and possibly to decision. He notes Sutherland's toughness and durability.

over 1.5 rounds
"I can see this fight going to decision. I can see it going over 1.5 rounds."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Daniel Vreeland picks Brando Peričić to win by submission or ground-and-pound. He notes Peričić's edge on the mat and Sutherland's inability to get back up if taken down. He expects Peričić to take Sutherland down and finish him.

"I'm going to pick Peric to come out here and either tap this guy out or pound this guy out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)

Peričić is the better striker but has unknown cardio and grappling. Sutherland is limited but known quantity. Too many unknowns to bet either side at the current odds.

"The money line is an easy pass for me because I wouldn't take Pericic with the unanswered questions over him, but I wouldn't bet Sutherland either."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

James picks Brando Peričić, but admits bias as he knows him personally. He thinks Brando's power and speed will lead to a knockout, though he worries about the long flight from New Zealand. He expects Brando to win early.

Brando Peričić by KO
"I got Brando winning this fight via knockout."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

The host picks Brando Peričić by knockout but is hesitant due to the low level of the fight. He acknowledges Sutherland's well-roundedness and potential to grapple, but believes Peričić's power will be the difference. He expects Peričić to land big shots when Sutherland shoots for takedowns, leading to a knockout. However, he advises against betting due to low confidence.

"We'll go Peric and Peric by knockout."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

Paul thinks Peričić's striking and size advantage will be too much for Sutherland, who has poor takedown defense and a soft physique. He expects a first-round finish.

"I think he's going to get the job done one way or another. So, it's going to be uh Peric, my Croatian brethren, now living in Australia to uh to get the job done."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brando Peričić

The MMA Guru picks Brando Peričić over Louie Sutherland. He notes Sutherland has physically declined since his regional days and is less athletic, while Peričić is more well-rounded and stronger. He expects Peričić to grapple and get a ground-and-pound TKO in the first or second round, though he warns about Sutherland's low kick that broke Walker's leg.

first or second round ground and pound TKO
"I'm going to go with Brando Peric, the Balkan Bear, getting this one done by first or second round ground and pound TKOR is what I think is going to happen here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Brando Peričić

Zane picks Brando Peričić, noting that he is a straight puncher with fundamental striking (jab, one-twos, low kicks) while Sutherland is a loopy hook brawler. He believes Peričić's style is a nightmare for Sutherland, but acknowledges that Sutherland could land one big hook and win. Zane also mentions Peričić's clinch work with elbows and knees as an advantage.

Odds comment: Peričić opened +160, now -255; Sutherland opened -185, now +215.
"I'm going to take Perisic, just straight, straight puncher versus loopy puncher."
LOSS vs Valter Walker
Submission R1 1:24 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valter Walker 0 5 of 5 100% 7 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Louie Sutherland 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valter Walker 0 5 of 5 100% 7 of 7 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Louie Sutherland 0 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valter Walker 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valter Walker 5 of 5 100% 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 3 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Louie Sutherland 3 of 5 60% 1 of 1 0 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Louie Sutherland vs. Valter Walker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Walker (-310), Sutherland (+250)

Round 1
Tonight could be considered moving night at the UFC’s muddled heavyweight division, with four of the 13 encounters booked in the weightiest category observed by the promotion. Having landed three heel hooks in a row, Walker (14-1, 3-1 UFC) wants little more than to make that four straight—a record among anyone to set foot in the Octagon—and to do so will have to hand Sutherland (10-3, 0-0 UFC) his first defeat inside the distance. The heavy hitters with win rates before the final bell at 70% or higher collide under the watchful eye of referee Kerry Hatley, bumping fists prior to engaging.
Walker slides his way forward to throw a low kick, and Sutherland fires back with his own body kick. Walker keeps slinging kicks including one up the middle, and Sutherland turns his hips into one that lands with an audible thud. Sutherland sits down on a crisp right hand as Walker is coming in, shaking him up but not stopping him from completing a double-leg takedown. Sutherland shells up on his back as he takes punches, and
Walker rolls for his patented heel hook. The Brit defends the leglock attempt, spinning all the way around to alleviate some pressure. The Russian by way of Brazil follows him the entire rotation, completing the submission while “The Vanilla Gorilla” is still turning. With the heel hook locked in all the way, Sutherland has no choice but to surrender for the first time in his career.
Just like that, “The Foot Hunter” has now racked up four straight submissions of this type in the Octagon, tied for the most for any fighter in company history along with Rousimar Palhares while extending his own record for the most in a row. Just four wins into his UFC tenure and the GOR MMA fighter is already in the top five for the most submissions performed in UFC heavyweight history. Only Stefan Struve (six), Alexey Oleynik (seven) and Frank Mir (eight) have landed more. Most impressive.

The Official Result
Valter Walker def. Louie Sutherland R1 1:24 via Submission (Heel Hook)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Angelo picks Valter Walker, noting his physical transformation and three consecutive heel hook finishes in the UFC. He believes Walker's wrestling and submission threat will be too much for Luis Saldana, who appears to have lost muscle mass after coming off steroids. Angelo thinks the minus 300 line is reasonable given Saldana's diminished physicality.

The minus 300, minus 310, that doesn't seem crazy considering Luis clearly no longer on the sauce
"Valter at this point in his career is an actual UFC fighter. The physical transformation he has gone through is genuinely a testament to his work ethic. He's going to be the pick. The minus 300, minus 310, that doesn't …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Big Brady confidently picks Valter Walker, citing his improvements, size (6'6", 27 years old), and elite wrestling and submission skills, particularly heel hooks. He dismisses Louie Sutherland as a bottom-tier heavyweight with no standout attributes. Brady expects Walker to get an early takedown and secure a first-round submission, making it four in a row.

Walker by first round submission
"Valter Walker is going to go for a takedown early on in the fight. And he's going to go for a heel hook. And I think there's a good chance to get it. So I'm going Valter Walker. Valter Walker …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Cody picks Valter Walker, noting that Sutherland has never been finished but has faced lower-level competition. He believes Walker's wrestling and submission game will be too much, especially if he focuses on takedowns rather than diving for heel hooks. Cody suggests a Walker submission prop at plus 140 as a better bet than the heavy favorite line.

Walker by submission (+140)
"Walker sub I see out there at plus 140. Other places it's dropped down to like plus 115. I may take just the best price available on Walker sub and call it a day."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Valter Walker

Connor picks Walker, expecting him to shoot takedowns and grapple. He notes that Sutherland is a fearless brawler but has no answer for wrestling, as anyone who has wrestled him has succeeded. Connor also highlights Walker's recent streak of heel hook submissions, suggesting Sutherland is vulnerable to that. He acknowledges Walker is not good but believes he is a bad matchup for Sutherland.

Walker is a heavy favorite at -350.
"I think this is probably a bridge too far for Louis Sutherland. ... It seems very likely that Walker will just shoot on him and drop for a leg and then Sutherland will have no clue what to do about …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Walker's submission skills, especially his heel hooks, but is hesitant to lay -335 on a guy who lost to Lucas Brzeski. He thinks Walker's grappling will be too much for Sutherland, who is a brawler with questionable conditioning. He predicts Walker will win, possibly by submission, but calls it a 'pure pick' rather than a betting recommendation.

wins by submission (heel hook)
"As a pure pick, I'm going to take Valter Ver to win this fight and possibly collect another leg."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Lucrative James picks Valter Walker confidently, noting his size advantage and ability to get takedowns. He references Sutherland's recent loss to Slim Trabelsi via grappling, and believes Walker can replicate that with his heel hook threat. He expects Walker to win by decision or submission.

"I got Vult Walker all day here. He's the bigger man. I think he's going to be able to get takedowns on Luis Southerntherland here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The host considers Sutherland a mediocre opponent who could find success if he avoids Walker's early heel hook danger, but he doesn't think Sutherland can avoid it. He predicts Walker will add another heel hook submission win.

submission (heel hook)
"I look for Walker to add another heel hook submission win to his record."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valter Walker

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Sutherland's physique and past steroid use are concerns. He notes that Sutherland looked deflated at UFC weigh-ins and may not be as durable without enhancements. Paul believes Walker's youth and improvement will lead to a win, likely by submission.

"for me it's a Walker play. But uh like anything, the longer this thing goes is when I'll start to sweat it."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Valter Walker

The MMA Guru picks Valter Walker by submission, specifically a leg-lock or heel hook in the first round. He believes Walker is being given layup opponents and that Luis Saldivar (the opponent mentioned, though the transcript says Luis Saldivar but the fight is Valter Walker vs Louie Sutherland; likely a mix-up in the transcript) is not good and looks different from his Tapology picture. He expects Walker to go for the easiest path to victory and get a quick submission.

first-round submission (heel hook)
"I'm going to go with Volkanovski getting a signature leg-lock submission over Luis Saldivar."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Valter Walker

Zane agrees, noting that even if Walker doesn't get another heel hook, he will be an annoying wrestler and grinder. He describes Sutherland as a 'meathead to the core' who will struggle with Walker's grappling. Zane also points out that Walker's losses have come against fighters who are not 'heavyweight enough' to be overwhelmed by his style.

"I'm gonna pick Walker. He'll shoot takedowns. He'll go grappling stuff and I just have to assume at this point in his career, Sutherland has seen none of it."
CANCEL vs Justin Tafa
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Angelo picks Louie Sutherland over Justin Tafa, reasoning that Sutherland is more well-rounded with movement and takedowns, while Tafa is a one-dimensional striker. He acknowledges Tafa's power and Sutherland's susceptibility to being hit, but believes Sutherland's range management and ability to mix in takedowns will be the difference. He compares Sutherland's movement to Jared Vanderaa's win over Tafa.

"I'm going to pick Louis Sutherland here. Like he is the more well-rounded guy. Justin Tafa is by far the better striker when it comes to pure technique. Probably the more powerful striker as well. And Louisie gets hit. So …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Big Brady leans toward Louie Sutherland to win by decision. He is disgusted by the fight quality but thinks Sutherland's cardio, clinch work, and durability could be factors if Tafa doesn't get an early KO. He notes Tafa fades in later rounds.

"I'm leaning ever so slightly Louis Sutherland. But if you bet on this fight, you probably need to go to prison."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Cody leans toward Sutherland, citing his durability and momentum on a four-fight winning streak. He notes Tafa has durability issues and has been outworked in longer fights. He thinks Sutherland's reach and ability to outwork Tafa if it goes past the first round give him an edge, but calls it a greasy 50/50 fight.

"I'm off the Justin Tough of bandwagon altogether. And for Louisie, again, not a world beater by any stretch."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Connor also picks Sutherland, emphasizing Tafa's terrible record and inability to win outside the first round. He notes that Sutherland has never been knocked out and is capable of throwing power combos and low kicks. Connor thinks Sutherland's pressure and durability will overwhelm Tafa, who is purely a reactive striker with no control.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Sep 19, 2025 (9 days before fight)

James does not make a clear pick, stating he would lean toward the underdog Sutherland but is not confident. He notes Sutherland has a cardio advantage and could win via wrestling, but doubts Sutherland will implement that game plan. He prefers to pass on the fight or consider an over 1.5 rounds prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I tend to lean that side just because he's an underdog. I feel like in this fight, you just bet the underdog. But I'm most certainly going to be passing on this fight, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

The host is not a big fan of Tafa's one-dimensional style but thinks this fight suits it. He expects Tafa to shuck off takedown attempts, get back to his feet if taken down, and eventually land big shots to knock Sutherland out cold.

win by knockout
"I am not a big fan of Toffa given his one-dimensional approach to fights, but this is the type of fight for that one-dimensional style to play out and actually be successful. Look for Tafa to shuck off most of …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The Guru picks Louie Sutherland (Louie Sutherland) as a hate pick against Justin Tafa, whom he criticizes as overweight and overrated. He believes Sutherland's power and Bellator experience will lead to a first-round knockout, as Tafa's career is on the line.

first round KO
"I'm going to go with Luis Southerntherland getting this one done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

Zane picks Sutherland, noting that Tafa is a reactive striker who throws one big punch at a time and has poor durability. He believes Sutherland's willingness to blitz with power combos and his ability to go past the first round give him the edge. Zane points out that Tafa has never won a fight that went past two minutes, while Sutherland has experience in longer fights.

"I think I have to pick Louis Sutherland because you know what hasn't happened to Louis Sutherland so far in his career? It's never been knocked out."
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Angelo picks Tai Tuivasa confidently, calling Louie Sutherland a modern-day Tank Abbott with no skill. He believes Tai's power and experience will overwhelm Sutherland, who was knocked out by Brando Peričić. He hopes Tai's cardio is better after a long layoff and expects a finish.

No odds yet; hopes for affordable line to bet.
"Tai's going to be the pick. I hope Tai has a little more cardio than he did in his last fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by decision, though he acknowledges Tuivasa's long losing streak and lack of career seriousness. He notes that Sutherland is a step down in competition and that Tuivasa should win, but expects the fight to get 'greasy' and go the distance. Brady is hesitant due to Tuivasa's recent form.

Tuivasa by decision
"I'll go Tuivasa by decision, though."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody picks Tuivasa by knockout, noting Sutherland's poor UFC performances and likely lack of drug testing. He believes Tuivasa's power and durability will be too much for Sutherland.

KO prop
"Tai for all of Tai's faults. It's like if you're gonna knock him out, you got to probably be a top guy... I do feel like Tai gets back in the win column."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Daniel Vreeland picks Tai Tuivasa to snap his losing streak, but is hesitant due to the risk of laying chalk on a six-fight skid. He believes Tuivasa's experience and power give him the edge, but warns that a loss would be embarrassing for bettors.

"I think it's comeback season, my friends. ... give me Tu Iasa to snap the big skid and uh to get back on track."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
No clear pick

Tuivasa has a striking advantage but his ground game is terrible. Sutherland is not a good offensive wrestler but could still take Tuivasa down. Tuivasa's odds have declined and offer no value. The fight likely ends inside the distance but no bet recommended.

"It's a very tricky fight whichever way you approach this one from a betting point of view."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Louie Sutherland

The host picks the underdog Sutherland, believing his speed and grappling advantage will allow him to take Tuivasa down and grind out a decision. He notes Tuivasa's poor form and lack of investment, while Sutherland is more serious. The host acknowledges Tuivasa's knockout power but thinks Sutherland can avoid it.

Decision win
"I'm going to go Sutherland here. Uh, and Sutherland by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul picks Tuivasa, agreeing that Sutherland is a step down and that Tuivasa's KO prop is fair. He notes Sutherland's deflated physique and poor durability.

KO prop
"Tai Knockout is like very fair, I think. Like, like we know Tai's not very unlikely to be get a sub be getting a sub in this fight and is like his his KO props like minus 115. It's basically a pickle."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The MMA Guru picks Tai Tuivasa, believing he is more built for heavyweight and will win a messy brawl. He notes Tuivasa's heart and ability to get back up from bad positions. He thinks Junior Tafa is tailor-made for Tuivasa and predicts a first-round win.

win in round one
"I'm going to go Tai Tuivasa coming in at 264. He's pulling off a big weight cut here um for this one. I'm going to go with Tai Tuivasa getting the job done."