Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena
Career Averages - Carlos Prates
Jack Della Maddalena
Carlos Prates
Jack Della Maddalena - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 53 of 90 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Carlos Prates | 3 | 104 of 193 | 53% | 104 of 193 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 36 of 79 | 45% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Carlos Prates | 2 | 46 of 69 | 66% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 41 of 76 | 53% | 25 of 52 | 8 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 104 of 193 | 53% | 79 of 164 | 11 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 89 of 171 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 15 of 30 | 50% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 25 of 39 | 64% | 19 of 28 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 36 of 79 | 45% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 46 of 69 | 66% | 39 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 20 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.
Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.
Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.
Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.
Connor picks Della Maddalena based on a technical advantage. He describes Della Maddalena as always technically sharp, locked into the tactical back-and-forth, with a boxer-like sophistication that Prates lacks. He notes Prates hits hard and is tough, but his game has empty space and he makes mistakes. Connor says Della Maddalena can pressure and exploit Prates' bad footwork habits.
Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.
Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.
The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.
Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.
Zane picks Della Maddalena based on his technical boxing sophistication and ability to pressure. He notes that Della Maddalena is a tremendous problem solver who enjoys difficult exchanges, and that Prates' game relies on opponents making big mistakes. Zane believes Della Maddalena can pressure, clinch, and wrestle his way to a win, though he acknowledges Prates' power and toughness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 61 | 29% | 30 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 30 of 57 | 52% | 140 of 188 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 19:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 4 of 18 | 22% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 20 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:52 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 36 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 32 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 22 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 61 | 29% | 10 of 45 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 4 | 14 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 30 of 57 | 52% | 14 of 40 | 6 of 7 | 10 of 10 | 20 of 41 | 3 of 4 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 4 of 18 | 22% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 9 of 17 | 52% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 9 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 5 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | |
| 4 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 6 | 16% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Islam Makhachev | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.
Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.
Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.
Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.
Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.
Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.
Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.
The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 0 | 132 of 318 | 41% | 155 of 349 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 178 of 342 | 52% | 200 of 364 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 21 of 63 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 30 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 32 of 79 | 40% | 32 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 34 of 76 | 44% | 35 of 77 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 35 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 33 of 59 | 55% | 51 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 46 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 53 of 83 | 63% | 56 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Belal Muhammad | 132 of 318 | 41% | 119 of 297 | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 116 of 295 | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 178 of 342 | 52% | 113 of 254 | 47 of 65 | 18 of 23 | 167 of 326 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 46 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 28 of 61 | 45% | 14 of 39 | 7 of 11 | 7 of 11 | 27 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Belal Muhammad | 21 of 63 | 33% | 19 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 30 of 63 | 47% | 16 of 45 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Belal Muhammad | 32 of 79 | 40% | 29 of 74 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 29 of 76 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 34 of 76 | 44% | 20 of 58 | 10 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 34 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Belal Muhammad | 31 of 65 | 47% | 30 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 54 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 33 of 59 | 55% | 27 of 48 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 32 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Belal Muhammad | 27 of 62 | 43% | 26 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 58 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Jack Della Maddalena | 53 of 83 | 63% | 36 of 64 | 16 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 45 of 74 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)
Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.
Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.
Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.
The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.
The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.
Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 27 of 58 | 46% | 31 of 63 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 0 | 0 | 5:07 |
| Gilbert Burns | 1 | 67 of 123 | 54% | 85 of 146 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 20 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 18 of 38 | 47% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
| Gilbert Burns | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 27 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Gilbert Burns | 1 | 28 of 37 | 75% | 35 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 27 of 58 | 46% | 16 of 43 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 52 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Burns | 67 of 123 | 54% | 54 of 104 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 100 | 4 of 6 | 16 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 18 of 35 | 51% | 9 of 23 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 14 of 29 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
| Gilbert Burns | 18 of 38 | 47% | 13 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 9 of 20 | 45% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 21 of 48 | 43% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Gilbert Burns | 28 of 37 | 75% | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 17 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)
Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.
Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.
Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.
Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.
Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.
Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 127 of 356 | 35% | 127 of 356 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 105 of 190 | 55% | 105 of 190 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 40 of 111 | 36% | 40 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 41 of 69 | 59% | 41 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 49 of 127 | 38% | 49 of 127 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 34 of 61 | 55% | 34 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 38 of 118 | 32% | 38 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 127 of 356 | 35% | 59 of 258 | 33 of 55 | 35 of 43 | 119 of 346 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 105 of 190 | 55% | 46 of 115 | 36 of 49 | 23 of 26 | 94 of 175 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 40 of 111 | 36% | 15 of 76 | 11 of 18 | 14 of 17 | 36 of 105 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 41 of 69 | 59% | 19 of 42 | 14 of 18 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 60 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 49 of 127 | 38% | 27 of 97 | 10 of 16 | 12 of 14 | 46 of 124 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 34 of 61 | 55% | 10 of 34 | 14 of 17 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 38 of 118 | 32% | 17 of 85 | 12 of 21 | 9 of 12 | 37 of 117 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 30 of 60 | 50% | 17 of 39 | 8 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 55 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-148), Holland (+124)
Round 1
Ranked welterweights cross paths in the compelling co-main event, as Della Maddalena (15-2, 5-0 UFC) puts his remarkable 15-fight winning streak on the line in arguably his toughest test to date. The 30-year-old Holland (25-9, 12-6 UFC) boasts 21 finishes among his 25 career victories. Jason Herzog draws the officiating assignment. Della Maddalena lunges forward with jabs and hammers home a leg kick. Holland answers with a leg kick of his own, stays light on his feet and looks to penetrate the Aussie’s defenses with punches down the middle. Della Maddalena attacks the body with hooks and tries to stay close to the Texan, hoping to negate a significant reach advantage. They engage one another at close range in the center of the cage, trading elbows and punches that draw oohs and aahs from the crowd. Holland punctuates a combination with a left hook. Della Maddalena responds with a right hand over the top. Holland stays busy with his kicks, zeroing in on the legs, body and occasionally the head. Della Maddalena scores with a body-head volley in the waning seconds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 2
Holland paws with his jab but lands nothing of significance. Della Maddalena sneaks in a leg kick, closes the distance and connects with a right hand upstairs. Holland answers with front kicks to the body and push kicks to the legs. This has the makings of a nip-tuck affair that could go either way. A short counter right lands for Holland, who rolls with punches as the Aussie tries to return fire. Della Maddalena struggling to generate enough output. Holland stays busy with his hands and feet. He doubles and triples up on his jab. Della Maddalena punctuates a combination with a leg kick. Holland shoots on a takedown and bails on it, with both men throwing elbows on the exit. Holland clips his opponent with a right hook at close range, catches a kick and nearly dumps the Aussie to the canvas as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Round 3
Della Maddalena opens the third round with a clubbing right hand that forces “Trailblazer” to retreat and circle. Holland keeps his composure and threatens with kicks. He leans on his jab and connects with a spinning reverse elbow, but it fails to make much of an impact. Della Maddalena cuts loose with punches, and while he lands a few of them, most miss the mark. The Aussie is the more active participant through the first half of the period. Holland is not hitting the accelerator, even though he needs to. Della Maddalena appears to be blocking a majority of his shots. The crowd boos for some reason. Della Maddalena answers every Holland strike with two, three and four of his own. Holland starting to pick up the pace, but it looks to be a case of too little too late. Della Maddalena delivers a pair of short-range elbows just before the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (30-27 Della Maddalena)
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Kevin Holland—Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.
Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.
Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.
Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.
Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.
Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 83 of 137 | 60% | 149 of 212 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Bassil Hafez | 0 | 32 of 124 | 25% | 48 of 141 | 3 of 20 | 15% | 0 | 1 | 6:48 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 41 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Bassil Hafez | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 12 of 31 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 3:19 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 27 of 43 | 62% | 47 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Bassil Hafez | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:15 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 43 of 68 | 63% | 61 of 92 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Bassil Hafez | 0 | 7 of 40 | 17% | 7 of 40 | 0 of 9 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:14 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 83 of 137 | 60% | 55 of 104 | 27 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 68 of 119 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 1 |
| Bassil Hafez | 32 of 124 | 25% | 29 of 117 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 118 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 13 of 26 | 50% | 9 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bassil Hafez | 9 of 28 | 32% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 27 of 43 | 62% | 17 of 31 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Bassil Hafez | 16 of 56 | 28% | 15 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 43 of 68 | 63% | 29 of 52 | 14 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 55 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 1 |
| Bassil Hafez | 7 of 40 | 17% | 6 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-625), Hafez (+440)
Round 1
Dead-set on getting a fight to not waste this training camp, Australia’s Maddalena (14-2, 4-0 UFC) stayed in Las Vegas and draws a late notice debuting opponent in the form of Hafez (8-3-1, 0-0 UFC). The biggest betting favorite in the card, Maddalena aims to improve his win streak to 15 while hunting for his 14th stoppage. On the other side, Philadelphia-trained Hafez has never been finished. This sport is wild and anything can happen, and referee Mark Smith is standing by in case it does. The two rush out of their corners with no interest in a glove touch, and Hafez is a man on a mission. Hafez shoots in for a double, and he puts the Aussie right on his back. Maddalena defends with a guillotine choke, and Hafez steps over properly to stop the choke from being tight while passing guard. Maddalena turns to his knees and returns upright to his feet, and he counter hip tosses Hafez back down. Hafez manages to reverse this when they land on their knees together, and he holds on from the side while keeping his weight on Maddalena. Maddalena leans up against the fence, and he manages to turn about and works the body. Hafez lands an elbow on the break as he backs off, and Hafez sticks his man with a left hand. Hafez slings a kick, and he topples over. The newcomer springs back up, and he backs up against the wall and trades furious leather, even catching Maddalena. Hafez gets popped, and he changes levels to secure a takedown and plant the heavy favorite on his back. Maddalena once more works to his knees and gets vertical, and he marches Hafez down and throws hands. Hafez catches him with a counter, but Maddalena lands the better strikes to force a telegraphed shot from his opponent. Maddalena defends it, and Hafez eventually bails on it instead of expending more energy. Maddalena clips Hafez behind the ear, and he strings a few punches together but eats some powerful blows right back at him. Hafez shoots in for a takedown, lifting Maddalena off his feet and fighting out of the guillotine choke that inevitably comes. Hafez, in half guard, leans down his shoulder with an arm-triangle choke that does not have the leverage he wishes. The round ends in this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Round 2
Looking to make up ground, Maddalena starts out aggressively. Hafez times a takedown early, and Maddalena staves it off and looks to take the back. Both stand up, and Hafez kicks the body as he backs off. Maddalena crowds Hafez and shucks a takedown to the side. Hafez times a spinning back fist when recovering, and Maddalena ignores it so that he can throw punches. Hafez sits down on a left hand, and they proceed to nail one another. Hafez knocks Maddalena back in a wild exchange, and Maddalena is landing too but not flustering Hafez one iota. Maddalena aims a front kick to the body, and he loops a right hand around the guard. Maddalena shuts down a takedown as he backpedals from one side of the cage to the other. Maddalena gets out of the tie-up and starts opening up with his punches, leaning Hafez over and kneeing him in the face. Hafez appears to be running out of steam, as Maddalena works the body several times and opens right and left hands over the top. Hafez takes a knee to the side as he leans over, and he gathers himself to wing hooks that miss the mark. Maddalena stifles a leaping double, and he wrenches his arm around the neck and drops back for a guillotine choke. Hafez welcomes this, as he is not in danger and it allows him to crawl on top and catch his wind. Hafez shifts his weight over to grip down on an arm-triangle choke, and he hops to the side to get a better angle. Maddalena grabs hold of his own foot, and Hafez moves back to half guard. Hafez isolates Maddalena’s left arm for a potential keylock, and he bumps his shoulder into Maddalena’s face. The round ends with Hafez on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Round 3
The last round opens, and it could be even on the scorecards. Maddalena wants to keep the judges out of the equation, coming out putting hands on face. Hafez misses with a high kick, whiffs with a superman punch, and absorbs a flush right hand. Maddalena sticks out a few jabs and lobs a left hand to follow, and Hafez rolls with it and drives Maddalena from one side of the cage to the other in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Hafez changes it for a single, and Maddalena pulls his leg out and resets. A cut has opened on the corner of his left eye, and he lets Hafez overswing so he can crack him with a left hand. “The Habibi” shoots for a double when getting tagged, and Maddalena shuts it down and a second try so that he can wobble Hafez with a right hand. Hafez tries to tie him up, and Maddalena pounds on the body. Maddalena gest clinched, and he pushes off so that he can kick Hafez and throw everything and the kitchen sink at the chin of his spent opponent. Hafez tries with all his might to get a takedown, and Maddalena stops it and beats on the body. Maddalena busts Hafez up with body shots, and he holds onto Hafez’ right hand so that he can slug him with his free hand. Hafez shoots in desperately with 100 seconds to go, and Maddalena lets him do this so that he can stop it and jump on his back. Maddalena fishes for a rear-naked choke, and he gets rolled over by the determined Hafez. As they scramble, Maddalena hunts for an armbar, and he elects to stand back up while Hafez hold on to head lock. Maddalena gets pushed back to the cage wall with a double, and Hafez grabs the fence to hold him there. Maddalena lowers his man down to the floor, and hangs on in this top position to end the fight. What a wild battle, easily the best fight on the card thus far. No matter the result, Hafez gave an incredible account of himself on short notice against a top contender. This is also a tough look for the ranked Maddalena, who might not even get his hand raised depending on the score of the second round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Bassil Hafez via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.
Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.
James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.
Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 1 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 | 14 of 31 | 45% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Randy Brown | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 14 of 31 | 45% | 9 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Randy Brown | 11 of 39 | 28% | 6 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 14 of 31 | 45% | 9 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 |
| Randy Brown | 11 of 39 | 28% | 6 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)
Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.
Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.
Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.
Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.
Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.
Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 2 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 41 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Danny Roberts | 0 | 5 of 33 | 15% | 5 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 2 | 33 of 60 | 55% | 41 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Danny Roberts | 0 | 5 of 33 | 15% | 5 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 33 of 60 | 55% | 23 of 41 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 27 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 |
| Danny Roberts | 5 of 33 | 15% | 2 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 33 of 60 | 55% | 23 of 41 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 3 | 27 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 |
| Danny Roberts | 5 of 33 | 15% | 2 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-490), Roberts (+330)
Round 1
The fists are sure to fly in this welterweight affair. Winner of 12 straight fights, with 11 going down inside the distance, Maddalena (12-2, 2-0 UFC) is keen on rising up the rankings fast. His next test comes in the form of British brawler Roberts (18-6, 7-5 UFC), who will almost certainly meet him in the middle. For as long as this match lasts, referee Mart Smith will be here for it. Like most of the fights thus far, there is no glove touch to initiate the proceedings. Maddalena measures himself, and he works his way in to close the distance and smack Roberts in the face with a right hand. Roberts tries to back him off with kicks, but Maddalena is on him with a fire and a fury. Maddalena rips the body in the midst of a lengthy combination, but Roberts has the wherewithal to dodge a high kick. As he dips down, he eats a knee on the chin, and his knees wobble but he keeps his bearings. As Roberts escapes, Maddalena gives chase and slams his fists into the face of his adversary. The Brit topples to the mat in big trouble, and Maddalena climbs down in hopes of finishing the job. Roberts protects himself from further harm and fights back to his feet. Maddalena is there to meet him with punches and a high kick, but the latter gets blocked. The Aussie lines up a knee and a right hook, and Roberts is taking a pounding but still in the fight. Roberts swings with a few looping shots before charging in from across the cage for a double, and Maddalena defends it with the wall to his back. Roberts checks a kick, and he unloads a combination of brutalizing blows.
Roberts backs up to the wall, and Maddalena swarms him with a long salvo that breaks Roberts with a left to the liver. Roberts’ legs give way beneath him, and Maddalena only needs a few pulverizing punches until Smith has seen enough and calls it.
This stellar performance for the man that has now won 13 fights in a row makes him absolutely one to watch in the welterweight division, and he calls for a fight at UFC 284 against anyone who will take it in his home city of Perth, Australia, in February.
The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Danny Roberts R1 3:24 via TKO (Punches)
Carlos Prates - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 41 of 76 | 53% | 53 of 90 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 1:13 |
| Carlos Prates | 3 | 104 of 193 | 53% | 104 of 193 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 23 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 36 of 79 | 45% | 36 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 0 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 7 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Carlos Prates | 2 | 46 of 69 | 66% | 46 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:40 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jack Della Maddalena | 41 of 76 | 53% | 25 of 52 | 8 of 15 | 8 of 9 | 41 of 76 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 104 of 193 | 53% | 79 of 164 | 11 of 14 | 14 of 15 | 89 of 171 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jack Della Maddalena | 15 of 30 | 50% | 5 of 18 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 5 | 15 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 22 of 45 | 48% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jack Della Maddalena | 25 of 39 | 64% | 19 of 28 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 36 of 79 | 45% | 27 of 69 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Jack Della Maddalena | 1 of 7 | 14% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 46 of 69 | 66% | 39 of 61 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 20 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.
Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.
Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.
Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.
Connor picks Della Maddalena based on a technical advantage. He describes Della Maddalena as always technically sharp, locked into the tactical back-and-forth, with a boxer-like sophistication that Prates lacks. He notes Prates hits hard and is tough, but his game has empty space and he makes mistakes. Connor says Della Maddalena can pressure and exploit Prates' bad footwork habits.
Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.
Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.
The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.
Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.
Zane picks Della Maddalena based on his technical boxing sophistication and ability to pressure. He notes that Della Maddalena is a tremendous problem solver who enjoys difficult exchanges, and that Prates' game relies on opponents making big mistakes. Zane believes Della Maddalena can pressure, clinch, and wrestle his way to a win, though he acknowledges Prates' power and toughness.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 0 | 12 of 17 | 70% | 25 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 21 of 32 | 65% | 24 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 20 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 9 of 17 | 52% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leon Edwards | 12 of 17 | 70% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 21 of 32 | 65% | 8 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leon Edwards | 7 of 10 | 70% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 9 of 17 | 52% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Leon Edwards | 5 of 7 | 71% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 12 of 15 | 80% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-198), Edwards (+164)
Round 1
Keith Peterson is the referee. They start in matching southpaw stances and trade low kicks. They both land more leg kicks and then Prates moves foreward with a jab. Prates defends a takedown from Edwards. Prates lands a knee on the inside. Both welterweights continue to land low kicks. Edwards shoots and shoves Prates into the fence. Prates defends and stays upright. Edwards brings a knee. Prates is talking to Edwards as they remain in the clinch. Peterson has seen enough and they separate. Back at range, Prates steps in with a knee. Edwards times a level change nicely and takes Prates down. Edwards looks to take the back and makes Prates carry him like a backpack as the Brazilian stands. Prates fights off the hands to prevent a choke. A few short shots to the side of the head for Edwards. Edwards jumps off the back and takes Prates down. Edwards threatens with a rear-naked choke late in the round but Prates survives.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Edwards
Round 2
Edwards fires off a front kick. Prates with a low kick. Edwards counters a low kick with a left hand. Prates sticks a crisp jab. A leg kick spins Edwards around. The welterweights trade lefts as Prates keeps talking to his foe. The Brazilian pumps his jab while chattering away. A nice counter lands for Edwards following a Prates knee during an exchange. Moments later, Prates lands a long left hand through Edwards’ guard, taking the Englishman clean off his feet. “Rocky” crashes to the canvas and his eyes roll back in his head. Prates dives in and adds one follow-up missile for good measure. “The Nightmare” is the first man to knock out Leon Edwards in his professional MMA career.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Leon Edwards via KO (Punches) R2 1:28
Angelo picks Carlos Prates, noting that Leon Edwards' recent losses were to wrestlers, while Prates is a dangerous striker. He believes Edwards has shown lack of heart recently and Prates' power and accuracy will be too much. He is excited for the fight and confident in Prates.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, believing he is getting Leon Edwards at the right time. He criticizes Edwards for having boring fights and not facing dangerous knockout artists, noting Edwards has never been knocked out but hasn't fought many power punchers. Brady thinks Prates has the 'death touch' and will knock out Edwards if he lets his hands go, predicting a second-round knockout. He acknowledges the risk of a slow start but expects Prates to show urgency.
Cody also picks Prates but calls it a trap line due to recency bias. He notes that Leon has been taken down frequently but that Prates won't wrestle, which could make Leon more comfortable. However, Cody believes Prates is younger, more aggressive, and will land bigger shots. He is concerned about Leon's past performances but ultimately sides with Prates.
Connor picks Prates hesitantly, citing Edwards' recent decline in motivation and tendency to fade in fights. He notes that Prates is a dangerous striker who can capitalize on Edwards' lapses, especially if Edwards backs to the fence. However, he acknowledges Prates' wrestling is unproven and Edwards could out-grapple him.
Daniel believes Prates is catching Edwards at the right time, as Edwards has looked uninspired and has been rocked multiple times. He praises Prates' knockout power and variety of strikes, and notes that Edwards' measured pace plays into Prates' style of downloading data and finding openings. He predicts a knockout win for Prates.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO. He highlights Prates' diverse striking arsenal, especially his devastating knee strikes, and believes Edwards will struggle to stay safe on the feet. He notes Edwards has been hurt by lesser strikers and doubts his ability to grapple effectively against Prates. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in round two or three, continuing his streak of walk-off KOs in the UFC.
Prates stops Edwards' takedowns and boxes him up on the feet, landing better shots to win on the scorecards. However, the odds are a little wide for my liking, indicating some hesitation.
Paul picks Prates, citing that Leon Edwards is on the decline and has shown low volume and a tendency to quit. He notes that Prates is on the rise and has power, and that Leon's wrestling won't be a factor since Prates doesn't rely on takedowns. Paul thinks Prates will land bigger shots and either finish or win a decision.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to KO Leon Edwards in round one or two. He cites Edwards' suspect chin, having been wobbled by Nate Diaz and Belal Muhammad, and believes Prates' power and timing will be too much. He notes that Edwards' movement and range management may not be enough to avoid Prates' left hand. The Guru expects a dramatic finish.
Zane also picks Prates, influenced by Edwards' apparent loss of enjoyment and tendency to become passive. He notes that Prates' pressure and power could catch Edwards, but Edwards' wrestling is a threat. He mentions the closed stance matchup favors Prates' comfort.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Carlos Prates | 1 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoff Neal | 25 of 49 | 51% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 32 of 60 | 53% | 17 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Geoff Neal | 25 of 49 | 51% | 16 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 32 of 60 | 53% | 17 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 32 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-250), Neal (+205)
Round 1
Welcome to what many are considering the “just bleed” matchup of the evening. Two welterweight flamethrowers will throw down mightily, and referee Jason Herzog gets the honor of handling it personally. Fortis MMA athlete Neal (16-6, 8-4 UFC) and Fighting Nerds representative Prates (21-7, 4-1 UFC) meet with 26 knockouts across their 37 total victories, and one more could be coming soon. Before they try to lop one another’s head off, Herzog has to usher them back to their corners. Despite that, they bump their fists together cordially.
Prates bounces up and down in the center of the Octagon, and Neal leads off with an inside calf kick. Prates jabs him back, and Neal kicks to the same spot before going high. Neal crowds a kicking Prates but goes not let his hands go, instead resetting to score a short but powerful left hook. Prates spins with a back kick to the stomach and kicks him in the front leg when planting, and Neal bull-rushes him. Prates tries for a jump knee, and Neal catches it and fires back with his right hand a few times. Prates reclaims his limb and resets, where he goes high with punches. Neal jabs him to the body and makes Prates back off with long punches, while Prates scores a few hard calf kicks. Prates darts in and out with a jab, and Neal crowds him with punches before Prates circles all the way around the cage. Prates sinks a leg kick home, and he is out of the way before Neal can get to him.
Both men connect with single left hands before bailing, and Prates calms himself down and looses two punches down the middle along with a step-in knee. Neal fires back with a vengeance, landing at least partially on his opponent and kicking him in the chest. Neal jacks Prates in the jaw with a left hand, and Prates responds with a crisp left to the body and then a knee to the same spot. Some swelling develops under Neal’s left eye, and Prates notices it and aims a spinning wheel kick at it. The kick pops off the guard, but Prates’ jab finds its target. Neal does not seem concerned, cracking Prates on the way in. Prates gathers a head of steam and loose a one-two, a body kick, a knee, two more punches and a jumping knee in one heck of a combination. Neal grabs him at the end of it to turn him to the cage, and Prates makes fun of him for trying to wrestle. Neal lets him go, and Prates blasts him with punches and chases him around the cage with an elbow strike. With seconds left on the clock, the Brazilian spins like a top and demolishes Neal with a spinning back elbow. The sound of the blow echoes through the United Center, and blood sprays from an open wound on the side of his temple. Herzog waves the fight off with a second to go on the clock, and Prates has bounced back from a tough loss with a spectacular knockout of an insanely durable Neal. On his post-fight interview, Prates gives it up for the Fighting Nerds team, remarks that he will be celebrating his birthday tomorrow, asks for a fight in Rio de Janeiro in October along with a post-fight bonus—which UFC chief Dana White grants both immediately—and pitches that the UFC sign up his training partner, LFA flyweight champ Marcos Degli.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Geoff Neal R1 4:59 via KO (Spinning Back Elbow)
Angelo thinks Prates is the better striker with power, accuracy, and cardio, and expects a striking match. He notes Neal may shoot takedowns but Prates should be ready. He hopes for a showcase performance from Prates to build him back up after his loss to Ian Garry.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by first-round knockout. He notes Prates has long reach, power, and fast combinations, and when he gets going he is very dangerous. He worries about Prates' slow starts but thinks Neal will force him to engage. He mentions Prates' brutal knockouts of Trevin Giles and others. He doesn't love the moneyline but thinks Prates can knock out Neal, who has a solid chin but can be hit.
Connor picks Prates, but with hesitation, acknowledging that Prates' game is limited and not built for elite competition, as seen in the Ian Garry fight. He notes that Neal is durable and will make it tough, but Prates' pressure and dangerous striking could overwhelm Neal, who tends to let opponents dictate the fight. Connor hopes Prates has learned from the Garry fight and can implement adjustments.
The host views Neal as underrated and tough, and believes his speed and explosiveness will allow him to land big shots on Prates throughout the fight. He expects Neal to win on the scorecards as the underdog.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to finish Geoff Neal, citing Prates' lateral movement and ability to find outside foot position. He notes that Neal struggles against fighters who move side-to-side, as seen in his fight with Neil Magny. The Guru believes Prates will land knees up the middle and finish Neal in the late first or second round. He also mentions that Prates nearly finished Ian Garry and has shown finishing ability against stationary opponents.
Zane is tempted to pick Neal, noting that Neal is durable, fast, and has a limited but effective game against elite opponents. He points out that Prates struggles with complex problems and has never faced a fellow southpaw. Zane believes Neal could pressure Prates and win rounds with his boxing and durability, but he is not fully confident due to Neal's tendency to let opponents dictate the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 126 of 242 | 52% | 141 of 259 | 4 of 19 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 3:09 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 63 of 129 | 48% | 64 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 36 of 70 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 33 of 60 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 4 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 26 of 45 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 12 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 28 of 41 | 68% | 31 of 45 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 22 of 38 | 57% | 23 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 126 of 242 | 52% | 86 of 185 | 17 of 28 | 23 of 29 | 120 of 231 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 5 |
| Carlos Prates | 63 of 129 | 48% | 38 of 97 | 16 of 21 | 9 of 11 | 50 of 114 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 15 of 39 | 38% | 8 of 25 | 3 of 7 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Carlos Prates | 7 of 16 | 43% | 2 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ian Machado Garry | 34 of 68 | 50% | 22 of 51 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 9 | 34 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 12 of 22 | 54% | 4 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ian Machado Garry | 26 of 52 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ian Machado Garry | 23 of 42 | 54% | 15 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 26 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 32 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Ian Machado Garry | 28 of 41 | 68% | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 26 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Prates | 22 of 38 | 57% | 17 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 13 |
Angelo picks Carlos Prates because he believes Prates is the better striker, which is key against a primarily striking opponent like Ian Garry. He notes that Garry may try to wrestle, but Prates has better takedown defense than MVP and won't be helpless on the ground. He acknowledges the risk but is confident in Prates' power and range control.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates, citing the Fighting Nerds' undefeated record and Prates' power and accuracy. He criticizes Ian Garry's striking defense, noting he backs up with his chin up. He expects Prates to land a big shot and knock out Garry, predicting a second-round knockout.
Connor picks Garry because he believes Garry can exploit Prates' weaknesses: Prates has a wide stance, struggles moving backwards, and defaults to clinching when pressured. Garry can use his reach to pressure, wrestle with authority, and neutralize Prates' game. Connor thinks Garry's ability to make fights ugly and suffocating will lead to a grinding win, even if uninspired.
The host leans Garry slightly, citing his better discipline and technical game. He notes Prates is dangerous and has finished all UFC fights, but Garry is the most technically sound opponent he's faced. Garry's five-round experience and ability to mix striking with grappling should lead to a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO in round two. He believes Prates has better finishing potential and composure, while Garry is nervous early and has a tendency to throw low kicks in elbow distance, leaving him open. He notes Garry's short reach for his height and that Prates has good balance and takedown defense. He expects Prates to hurt Garry in round one and finish him in round two.
Zane picks Prates despite acknowledging Garry's advantages, because he expects Garry to be passive and fight on the back foot, which gives Prates room to work. Zane notes Prates has a great eye for defensive openings and can pick up on Garry's timing issues. He also mentions Prates' finishing ability and the fact that Garry has been less aggressive recently, but admits Prates has never fought five rounds and could gas.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 33 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Neil Magny | 2 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 13 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Neil Magny | 12 of 21 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-650), Magny (+470)
Round 1
Ever the “trap fight” connoisseur, Magny (29-12, 22-11 UFC) would like nothing more than to derail the quick rise of power-punching Prates (20-6, 3-0 UFC). The durable New Yorker by way of Colorado may be susceptible to getting blitzed early, but he also has the unearthly ability to outlast opponents and turn on the jets. Ask Hector Lombard, Mike Malott or Daniel Rodriguez, to name but a few. With five rounds to get things done, it could be a lot of fun until what could be a dramatic end. Referee Mark Smith is in it for the long haul, and he brings the welterweights to the center of the cage to bump fists. They do not bump fists. It’s on with the show. Magny strides into the middle of the Octagon to get going, where he uses his length with low kicks and jabs to surprise the Brazilian with a sudden level change. Magny goes after a single-leg takedown, pressing Prates to the cage but falling to his back. Magny lands on his back and closes his guard, with Prates posturing up for a second before Magny wraps him up again. Prates looks for one big right hand when he finds space, and Magny boxes his ears and tries to keep him tight. Prates works his way out of the grappling and stands back up, and he launches a leg kick only to have to deal with three lunging punches flying back his way. Magny come up close and elbows his opponent, looking for a trip and letting it go to chase Prates while dinging him with a right hand. Magny drops down for a single, and Prates hops out of danger and finds himself dealing with a second attempt as soon as he spins around. Magny lifts the limb up, and Prates’ balance is immaculate as he not only stays on his feet but lowers his leg back down. Prates gets off a single knee with his back to the wall, and Magny hangs on until Prates explodes out. Magny jabs from afar, and he leans to avoid a looping left hand. Prates has his left hand chambered, and he stops a double-leg entry and kicks Magny’s rear leg. Prates whips a left to Magny’s chest, and he knocks Magny down with a fierce short right hand. Magny is told to stand back up, and Prates walks him down, swarming him with punches. Magny bounces off the cage wall, kicking out with front kicks to keep distance before selling out for a single. Prates defends it, frees his trapped arm and walks Magny down. Magny snipes him from a long way out, with his reaching limbs effectively keeping “The Nightmare” at bay…until they don’t.
Prates unloads a monstrous left hand that does not even connect flush but buzzes the top of the veteran’s head. This is all it takes, with Prates apparently possessing “dim mak” as Magny falls to his face, unconscious. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and everyone in the Apex is stunned as they may not have seen the mighty sleep-inducing blow.
“Breakthrough Fighter of the Year” may be well and truly sewn up, with Prates making his promotional debut in 2024 and scoring four knockouts, none greater than his annihilation of tricky vet Magny. The perennial contender comes to as Smith tends to him, and Prates dons the trademark Fighting Nerds glasses to celebrate his terrific handiwork. The Brazilian calls his shot, with very specific plans in mind: Jack Della Maddalena at UFC 312 in Australia. If this is too big of a gap, dispatching the UFC’s #15 Magny and moving on to a top-five adversary, he is reasonable and suggests he and Geoff Neal would engage in a wild one. No matter what the heavy-handed rising fighter gets next, we will be here for it—just like we will be ready for UFC 309 next week. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Neil Magny R1 4:50 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Carlos Prates despite Neil Magny's vast experience. He believes Prates is too accurate with good footwork to be caught in a takedown. He notes Prates' power and finishing streak (9-fight KO streak). He thinks Magny would need to wrestle without getting hit, which is unlikely. He expects Prates to make it 10 KOs in a row.
Big Brady is confident in Prates, citing his speed, power, and range. He believes Magny is on the decline and will struggle to get the fight to the ground. He predicts Prates will land a knockout in the second round.
Cody agrees Prates is the favorite but warns about the wide money line. He notes Prates' unique style and finishing ability, but also points out that Magny has a grappling and cardio advantage if the fight goes past two rounds. Cody suggests a live bet on Magny if Prates doesn't finish early, but ultimately picks Prates.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Magny's recent performances show a decline in activity and that Prates is smart enough to kick the legs and avoid Magny's clinch. He thinks Magny's only path is if Prates makes a mistake, but he doesn't see that happening. Connor is confident Prates will win, likely by knockout.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Carlos Prates to win by knockout, citing Prates' calf kicks and Muay Thai as key weapons against Neil Magny. He notes that Magny's reach advantage won't be an issue because Prates is a big welterweight who can fight at range and in the clinch. Vreeland expects a finish, possibly in round four, referencing the Santiago Ponzinibbio fight where Magny was finished late. He also mentions Prates' jiu-jitsu black belt but predicts a KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win by KO, noting that Neil Magny's best days are behind him and that Prates has a strong win streak. He acknowledges that Prates has shown some vulnerabilities, such as being wobbled and dropping rounds, but believes Prates will eventually land a kill shot. He also mentions that Magny does well against southpaws, which could make the fight closer early, but ultimately expects Prates to finish him.
Prates is a -750 favorite and the perfect fighter to cause Neil Magny issues. He will use leg kicks to slow Magny down, then open up with combinations to find a big shot and finish him in the second or third round.
Paul believes Prates is an absolute sniper with devastating power, as shown by knocking out Jin Jin Leang Lee. He thinks Neil Magny's only path is wrestling, but if he can't get takedowns, his striking won't scare Prates. Paul sees a knockout as almost inevitable and recommends the under 2.5 rounds or Prates by KO prop.
The Guru picks Carlos Prates to win by TKO, citing Prates' Muay Thai style, low kicks, and finishing ability. He notes Neil Magny's poor leg kick defense and recent TKO loss two and a half months ago, suggesting Magny is vulnerable. He expects Prates to chew up Magny's leg early and finish with body shots in round two or late round one.
Zane is very high on Prates, calling him his favorite striker in MMA. He praises Prates' understanding of range, active defense, and ability to cut off opponents' offense. He believes Prates will outclass Magny, who has become inactive and is vulnerable to leg kicks and pressure. Zane expects a knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 41 of 111 | 36% | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 3 | 55 of 84 | 65% | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 1 | 25 of 36 | 69% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Li Jingliang | 2 | 30 of 48 | 62% | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 41 of 111 | 36% | 12 of 64 | 4 of 10 | 25 of 37 | 41 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 55 of 84 | 65% | 44 of 70 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 55 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 26 of 66 | 39% | 7 of 38 | 4 of 9 | 15 of 19 | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 25 of 36 | 69% | 18 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Carlos Prates | 15 of 45 | 33% | 5 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 10 of 18 | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 30 of 48 | 62% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Carlos Prates will win, citing his dangerous striking, power, range control, and eight consecutive knockout wins. He thinks Prates is faster and cleaner on the feet than Li Jingliang, who is older and coming off a two-year layoff. His only hesitation is Li's durability, but he believes Prates will find his spot and finish him.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by decision. He notes Prates is a hot prospect from Fighting Nerds with a lot of hype, but this is a step up in competition. He highlights red flags for Li Jingliang: a long layoff (almost 2 years), a spine surgery, and age (36). He believes Prates will do better work across 15 minutes, landing bigger shots and having more moments. He acknowledges Li is next-level tough and durable, so he doesn't expect a knockout, but thinks Prates will outpoint him.
Cody likes Jingliang's forward pressure, durability, and experience, but is concerned about his two-year layoff and major back surgery. He notes that Prates is a low-volume striker who relies on knockouts, and that Jingliang's chin and volume could cause problems. However, he admits the red flags are significant and calls it a PRP pick.
Daniel Vreeland picks Carlos Prates to win, predicting he will be the first to knock out Li Jingliang. He highlights Prates' reach advantage, power, and patient striking style, while noting that Li Jingliang is coming off a layoff and may have declined. Vreeland acknowledges the price is high but believes Prates is the rightful favorite.
Vreeland picks Prates, highlighting his pattern of downloading information before finishing opponents. He notes Prates' superior range control and length advantage over Li. He predicts a knockout, specifically a body shot, as Li is notoriously durable but Prates will pick him apart.
Fox agrees with Prates, noting his ability to download information and finish. He contrasts Prates' disciplined striking with Li's shorter reach and comfort issues on the feet. He believes Prates controls range better than Daniel Rodriguez and will pick Li apart easily.
The host leans to Prates, citing his technical striking, takedown defense, and activity. He notes Li's power and experience but is concerned about Li's long layoff and spine injury. He expects Prates to win by decision, but warns that a Li knockout would not surprise him.
Paul discusses Prates' smoking habit and low volume, and Jingliang's spinal issues, concluding that the fight is a pass. He notes that Prates has knockout power but questions his cardio and grappling, while Jingliang's wrestling is a big if due to his back. Paul does not make a clear pick.
The MMA Guru picks Carlos Prates over Li Jingliang. He notes that Li has been out for nearly two years due to a broken back and is 36 years old, making it hard to come back. He acknowledges Prates has losses but has been on a run since 2019, beating Trevin Giles and Charles Radtke. He expects Prates to win a 29-28 decision with cleaner shots. He expresses concern about Li's injuries and age.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Charles Radtke | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 33 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Charles Radtke | 1 | 15 of 36 | 41% | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Prates | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Radtke | 15 of 36 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Carlos Prates | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Radtke | 15 of 36 | 41% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 10 | 6 of 7 | 15 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Prates (-238), Radtke (+195)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage next, and one of these two unheralded competitors will be forced to suffer their first UFC loss while the other will maintain either a seven- or nine-fight win streak. Victorious in his last six, Radtke (9-3, 2-0 UFC) puts that on the line against Brazilian striker Prates (18-6, 1-0 UFC), who has not lost since a One Championship appearance in 2019. Drawing the charge will be referee Blake Grice, and the intense showdown kicks off without a glove touch. Radtke switches stances several times to work his way forward, while Prates kicks at his foe’s knee to push him back. Radtke whips a low kick as Prates recoils his leg, and a Prates head kick bounces harmlessly off the guard. Radtke punches his way into a single-leg takedown entry, pushing “Carlao” against the fence and holding up a leg. With Prates bent over, Radtke bops Prates many times with short, annoying punches, and he breaks off and lands one heavy right hand. Prates nails his foe’s front calf with a kick, and after Radtke flies by with a kick, he scores his own leg kick. Radtke has another kick land with a thud, and he winds up everything into a right hook that flies by his opponent. Radtke crashes forward in pursuit of a single, and he lets it go and misses with an overhand right. Two punches from Radtke miss the mark, but a leg kick does connect. Prates bobs and weaves his way forward, and he has his head snapped back by a right hand. Prates blasts the front leg with a kick, and Radtke starts limping as swelling forms almost immediately. Prates leans back from the counter and tags “Chuck Buffalo” with a right, and he backs off as Radtke tries to let him have it. A fake takedown from Radtke is stifled when Prates pokes him in the eye, and Grice calls time and lets Radtke take about 20 seconds to blink it out. When they resume, Prates starts to stalk his man down, his hands low and allowing him to eat a right hand so he can throw punches from strange angles. Radtke sneaks in a left hand before his lead leg is kicked hard, and Prates measures him with a straight left hand and lets out a woo.
The Brazilian rips a knee to the liver as clean as can be, and Radtke hits the deck and is completely done. Prates walks off, knowing his work here is done, and Grice waves off the fight.
The victorious “Carlao” goes over to Radtke’s corner, where he yells something at upcoming title challenger Belal Muhammad. With that crushing stoppage on the board, this is the first finish of the night and the first knockout in quite some time.
The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Charlie Radtke R1 4:47 via KO (Knee to the Body)
Angelo leans Charles Radtke, but with low confidence. He notes that Radtke is a grappler who has shown good hands recently, while Prates is a dangerous striker but low volume. He thinks Radtke's forward pressure and takedowns could be key, but if he rushes in recklessly, he could get knocked out. He sees it as a close fight where Radtke's pressure might be the difference.
Big Brady picks Charles Radtke as a big underdog to win by first-round knockout. He thinks Prates is overrated and notes that Prates was losing to Trevin Giles before a comeback KO. He believes Radtke can make it a brawl and potentially knock Prates out, though he acknowledges Prates has advantages in height, reach, and youth.
Cody picks Radtke as an underdog, noting that Prates has low volume and questionable durability, as seen in his fight against Trevin Giles. Radtke is aggressive, has power, and is a BJJ black belt with multiple win conditions. Cody believes Radtke can pressure Prates, take him down, or knock him out. He sees value in the plus money.
Daniel is confident in Prates, citing his Muay Thai, reach, experience, and finishing ability. He compares Prates to Anderson Silva in terms of length and southpaw stance, and expects a highlight-reel knockout. He notes Radtke is well-rounded but not special anywhere, and that Prates' seasoning and physical advantages should prevail.
Jacob is very confident in Charles Radtke, calling him the lock of the week. He praises Radtke's toughness, pressure, and grappling. He thinks Radtke will push Prates against the cage, take him down, and likely submit him. He notes that Prates has no plan B and relies on one-punch power, but Radtke has a good chin and will break him. Jacob also mentions that he predicted Prates' last fight correctly.
Prates has extensive kickboxing experience and excellent takedown defense, which should allow him to stuff Radtke's takedowns and pick him apart on the feet. Radtke has power but is less technical. Prates should eventually land a knockout, though the -230 line is a bit wide given Radtke's danger.
Paul is tempted by Radtke at plus money but is nervous about laying the price on Prates. He notes Prates' finishing ability but also his low volume and the fact that he was losing to Giles before the knockout. Paul considers it a dogger pass but might take Radtke.
The Guru picks Prates because he is more effective at range on the feet, with 78 inches of reach in welterweight. He notes Radtke looked bad against Blood Diamond and though he has KO power, Prates is younger and on a good win streak including kickboxing. He predicts a second-round TKO for Prates.
Expert Picks (11)
Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.
Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.
Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.
Connor picks Della Maddalena based on a technical advantage. He describes Della Maddalena as always technically sharp, locked into the tactical back-and-forth, with a boxer-like sophistication that Prates lacks. He notes Prates hits hard and is tough, but his game has empty space and he makes mistakes. Connor says Della Maddalena can pressure and exploit Prates' bad footwork habits.
Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.
Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.
Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.
The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.
Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.
The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.
Zane picks Della Maddalena based on his technical boxing sophistication and ability to pressure. He notes that Della Maddalena is a tremendous problem solver who enjoys difficult exchanges, and that Prates' game relies on opponents making big mistakes. Zane believes Della Maddalena can pressure, clinch, and wrestle his way to a win, though he acknowledges Prates' power and toughness.
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