Career Averages - Alden Coria
Career Averages - Stewart Nicoll
Alden Coria
Stewart Nicoll
Alden Coria - Fight History
AJ picks Alden Coria to win by KO, noting Coria is a well-rounded athlete with knockout power facing Stewart Nicoll, who is 0-3 in the UFC and primarily a grappler. He sees this as a confidence-building fight for Coria, who should deliver a highlight-reel knockout.
AJ is extremely confident in Coria, calling him an 'S-tier side' against an 0-3 UFC fighter. He believes Coria wins everywhere: striking, wrestling, and possibly by submission. AJ notes Nicoll's spinning attacks leave him open and expects a lopsided decision or knockout.
AJ picks Alden Coria by KO, noting Coria's striking advantage and Nicoll's 0-3 UFC record. He believes Coria will land head strikes or body shots to set up a knockout, and likes the KO prop at +135. He considers Nicoll average and expects Coria to look for a highlight reel finish.
AJ is extremely confident in Alden Coria, a massive favorite, due to his superior kickboxing, athleticism, and technical striking. He expects Coria to dominate and potentially knock out Stewart Nicoll, who is sloppy and prone to spinning attacks. He notes Coria's wrestling and well-roundedness, and predicts a second or third round knockout or a lopsided decision.
Angelo is extremely confident in Alden Coria, calling him the biggest favorite on the card and saying he should be minus 4000. He believes Coria is better in all areas: wrestling, striking, and grappling, and that Stewart Nicoll will lose his fourth UFC fight in a row. He recommends betting on Coria.
Angelo is extremely confident Alden Coria will win, calling him a very good prospect with clean technique everywhere. However, he is fading Coria in DFS due to his high salary and inconsistent scoring, even in wins.
Big Brady confidently picks Alden Coria, calling it a squash match. He notes Coria's good volume, pressure, and grappling, while Stewart Nicoll has poor wrestling and can't get the fight to the ground. He predicts Coria will piece him up and finish by second-round knockout.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Alden Coria, calling him a 'complete spot and a layout' against Stewart Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's non-existent wrestling and inability to get the fight to the ground, while Coria should dominate and finish. He advises against betting the moneyline at -1000 and suggests knockout props or round props instead.
Cody is very confident in Coria, citing his volume, takedown defense, and striking precision. He notes Nicoll's poor takedown accuracy (11%) and inability to hold opponents down. He thinks Coria will piece Nicoll up and likely get a TKO, though he mentions the minus 1000 price is steep.
Daniel Levi picks Alden Coria to dominate Stewart Nicoll, stating Nicoll does not belong in the UFC while Coria is a future ranked fighter. He praises Coria's boxing, takedown defense, and complete skill set, and expects him to box up Nicoll and win dominantly.
Coria is a massive favorite, but his takedown defense and ground game are unknown because his past opponents didn't fully commit to takedowns. Nicoll could have an edge on the ground, but there's no footage to confirm. The host finds no betting value and passes on this fight.
Lucrative James picks Alden Coria to win by knockout, citing Coria's superior striking and overall skills. He notes that Nicoll is not UFC level and Coria is a prospect who should easily finish him. He expects Coria to execute and get a finish, possibly by knockout.
The host expects Coria to continue his UFC success by out-striking and stopping the takedowns of the BJJ black belt. He predicts a knockout in round two or three.
Coria is a sharp, fast striker with improved defensive grappling, while Nicoll has struggled in the UFC with a 0-3 record and poor takedown success. Coria should be able to keep the fight standing and land damaging strikes, eventually finishing Nicoll by TKO in the latter half of round two or round three. The over 1.5 rounds is also a viable play given Nicoll's durability.
Paul agrees Coria is the clear pick, noting Nicoll's 0-3 UFC record and 11% takedown accuracy. He thinks Coria's striking and scrambling will overwhelm Nicoll, who has been beaten up in recent fights. He calls the line wide but sees no value in betting against Coria.
The MMA Guru picks Alden Coria, noting he is a -1100 favorite for a reason. He compares Coria's win over Alessandro Costa to Nicoll's loss to Costa, highlighting Coria's size and power advantage. He predicts a first or second round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alden Coria | 0 | 79 of 175 | 45% | 96 of 193 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 1:42 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 50 of 150 | 33% | 59 of 169 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alden Coria | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Alden Coria | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 29 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:02 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 13 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 | |
| 3 | Alden Coria | 0 | 33 of 73 | 45% | 41 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Luis Gurule | 0 | 27 of 79 | 34% | 31 of 92 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alden Coria | 79 of 175 | 45% | 52 of 137 | 15 of 26 | 12 of 12 | 70 of 165 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 |
| Luis Gurule | 50 of 150 | 33% | 32 of 122 | 8 of 16 | 10 of 12 | 45 of 140 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alden Coria | 24 of 51 | 47% | 15 of 35 | 3 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 11 of 33 | 33% | 5 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alden Coria | 22 of 51 | 43% | 14 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Luis Gurule | 12 of 38 | 31% | 8 of 31 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 33 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alden Coria | 33 of 73 | 45% | 23 of 60 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 32 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Gurule | 27 of 79 | 34% | 19 of 67 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 25 of 75 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Coria with an outside leg kick, and Gurule answers with one of his own. Gurule is warned to close his hands. Another leg kick for Coria. A right gets through for Coria. A stiff jab connects for Coria. Coria lands another jab. Coria counters Gurule with a nice combination. A quick left hand gets through for Coria, and Gurule follows a combination by shoving his man into the fence. Coria reverses position and lands a sneaky shoulder strike and a knee before they separate. Coria lands a body kick. Coria catches a kick and briefly dumps Gurule. Coria pumps his jab. Gurule wings a counter combination but can’t connect. Coria makes Gurule stumble with a calf kick. Coria knees the body and avoids a Gurule flurry at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Round 2
Coria opens up with a lead hook and Gurule responds with a low kick. Gurule catches a kick, lands a couple shots and looks for a takedown. He lifts and slams Coria, but the Houston native is right back to his feet. Coria hurts Gurule in an ensuing exchange. Coria targets the lead leg and then lands a straightr right. Gurule has a head kick blocked, and Coria connects with a counter left. Coria with a front kick to the body. Coria steps in with an uppercut and follows up with a straight right. They clinch and Coria lands a knee before shoving his foe into the fence. A shoulder strike follows. Coria breaks with a slashing elbow and keeps the pressure on with straights. An uppercut by Coria snaps Gurule’s head back. Coria is just picking Gurule apart. Coria connects with a head kick and Gurule goes on the attack. He strings together a series of punches before changing levels against the fence. Coria defends well and they separate. Coria stabs his foe with a front kick, then lands a knee in close. Another uppercut finds the mark for Coria. Gurule ducks under a spinning attack and slams Coria to the mat. However, Coria ends up on top in side control. Gurule goes to all fours and Coria frames a choke to force his foe back to the floor. Coria ends the round in side control.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Round 3
Coria lands a jab and then an outside low kick. Gurule wades forward with power punches. He backs Coria into the fence and attacks before clinching. Gurule with a short elbow on the break. Coria lands a combination to back Gurule up. He works the body nicely before going upstairs. Gurule is firing back this round, however. Coria changes levels and gets a takedown in the center of the Octagon. Gurule stands, but Coria maintains a rear body lock. A quick mat return follows and then Coria shoves Gurule toward the fence. The Houston fighter peppers his foe with a flurry of punches on the release. Coria continues to find success with a uppercut. Coria is heating up, landing punches, knees and kicks to the body. Gurule wings punches but Coria slides out of reach. Coria catches a kick. Gurule is swinging wildly before Coria releases the limb. Coria lands a jab and then eludes an onrushing Gurule. Gurule wades forward with punches and Coria just misses on a spinning attack. Gurule falls after a kick and Coria kicks the body. Gurule goes on the attack one more time, but Coria remains defensively sound until the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria (30-27 Coria)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria (30-27 Coria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Coria (30-27 Coria)
The Official Result
Alden Coria def. Luis Gurule via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Alden Coria, impressed by his UFC debut where he stopped Alessandro Costa as an underdog. He describes Coria as a busy grappler with slick scrambles and sneaky power, and believes his relentless style will overwhelm Luis Gurule, who had low volume in his last fight.
Big Brady picks Alden Coria to defeat Luis Gurule, citing Gurule's terrible chin and Coria's well-rounded skills. He notes Gurule gets hurt in every fight and lost a striking exchange to Jesus Aguilar, who has a 62-inch reach. He believes Coria will land something big and knock out Gurule, predicting a second-round knockout. He praises Coria's debut and training with Joshua Van.
Cody is high on Coria, citing his power, youth, and takedown defense. He thinks Gurule has poor cardio and chin, and that Coria will overwhelm him. He expects a KO or dominant decision.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Coria. He notes that Gurule has not improved since his debut, while Coria has improved fight to fight, as shown in his win over Costa where he had to problem-solve. Gurule will be a free target for Coria.
James picks Alden Coria to win inside the distance, predicting he will hurt and finish Gurule. He notes that Gurule has a questionable chin and has been hurt in recent fights, while Coria is a dangerous finisher with good grappling. James sees value in Coria inside the distance rather than the moneyline.
Coria is a faster, more powerful striker with good takedown defense, as shown in his UFC debut. Gurule is 0-2 in the UFC and has underachieved, but he has good cardio and pressure. Coria should land the more damaging shots and win on the scorecards, but Gurule could make it competitive if he pushes a pace and uses clinch work. The chalk is a bit steep, so hesitant.
Paul agrees, calling Gurule possibly the worst flyweight on the roster. He notes Coria's impressive debut against a tough opponent and thinks Gurule's gas tank issues will be exposed. He expects Coria to win comfortably.
The MMA Guru picks Alden Coria, citing his size advantage (5'8" vs 5'5") and finishing ability. He notes Coria beat Alessandro Costa, who is a dangerous version of Gurule on the feet. He expects Coria to rally as the fight goes on and get a late rounds TKO, possibly with knees and uppercuts against the cage.
Zane picks Coria easily, noting that Gurule is a 'quadruple A' fighter who couldn't beat Osbourne or Susag. Coria is a better striker, at least as good a wrestler, and much busier. Gurule has no range game and can't fight outside of close range, making him a free target.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 0 | 12 of 56 | 21% | 14 of 59 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 77 of 131 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 10 of 48 | 20% | 10 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 20 of 57 | 35% | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 12 of 19 | 63% | 47 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 3:15 | |
| 3 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alden Coria | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 12 of 56 | 21% | 7 of 37 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 13 | 12 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 42 of 95 | 44% | 34 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 10 of 48 | 20% | 5 of 30 | 1 of 6 | 4 of 12 | 10 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 20 of 57 | 35% | 14 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 12 of 19 | 63% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 13 | |
| 3 | Alessandro Costa | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alden Coria | 10 of 19 | 52% | 9 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-450); Coria (+350)
Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Coria opens up with a leg kick and Costa answers. coria with an inside leg kick. Costa kicks the body. Coria is switching stances in the early going. A jab lands for the Houston native. A slick 1-2 from Coria tags Costa, who sahkes it off. Coria moves in and out with a jab, then blocks a high kick. Costa finds an opening and alnds an overhand. coria continues to work behind hhis jab. Costa whiffs on an overhand. Coria follows a jab by just missing on a head kick. A counter left connects for Coria, who follows with a leg kick. Costa is winging power punches, and he lands a glancing overhand right. Coria attacks the lead leg of his foe. Costa attacks the body with a kick. Costa catches Coria with a combination. Coria lands a body kick and then a jab. Costa blocks a head kick but it smacks off the forearms. Coria extends a combo and lands multiple punches. Costa looks for a takedown late in the round but Coria keeps his footing. Coria blocks a body kick.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Round 2
They trade jabs early. They crash into the clinch and Coria takes his man down when Costa jumps into his arms. Coria is inside the Brazilian’s guard. Costa is active from his back, throwing his legs up and looking for submissions. Coria finds an opening and drops a couple heavy elbows. Costa pushes off the fence with his legs and Coria is forced to defend a leg lock. Costa scrambles to his feet and Coria shoves him into the wire. Costa is threatening with a kimura with his back to the fence. Coria lifts Costa and briefly sets him down. Costa rolls and transitions to the back. Moments later he suplexes the newcomer to the mat while maintaining back control, secures a body triangle and looks to find openings for a rear-naked choke. Costa is working on a neck crank now. Coria is able to turn and scramble back into top position, where he drops an elbow with a minute to go. Coria finds room for another elbow, then stands over his opponent before diving back in with punches. Another elbow lands from top position for Coria, who has recovered to finish the round strong.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Coria
Round 3
The broadcast team reveals that Costa struggled to his corner between rounds due to an apparent foot injury. Coria probes with his jab. Coria backs Costa up and lands a right hand. Costa shoots out of desperation and Coria sprawls relatively easily. Costa doesn’t appear to have much left in the tank, and
Coria tees off with a barrage of punches against the fence. Costa slumps to the floor and Coria is able to connect with a few more blows before Miragliotta shoves him away.
An impressive UFC debut for the Fury FC veteran. Costa, meanwhile, seems to indicate that his injured pinkie toe hindered him down the stretch. As it turns out, Costa’s corner was throwing in the towel around the same time Miragliotta was calling off the bout.
The Official Result
Alden Coria def. Alessandro Costa via TKO (Punches) R3 0:47
Angelo picks Costa, noting he is a solid striker with good takedown defense and real power, though he can be low volume. He thinks Coria is a busy grappler but may be too slow and hittable. He says the odds at -350 seem wide for a competitive fight, but still goes with Costa.
Big Brady picks Costa due to his power, BJJ black belt, and level of competition faced. He notes Costa is hittable with a questionable chin but has only lost to top flyweights. He expects Costa to win by any method, possibly submission if the fight goes to the ground, but acknowledges the line is steep at -430.
Connor also picks Costa, noting that Coria has some good moments but lacks depth. He mentions that Costa puts immense pressure and Coria is too willing to get cornered. He says Coria's knockout power is questionable against higher-level competition.
Costa is favored due to his leg kicks, BJJ black belt, and power, but the host is skeptical of the big chalky line. Despite this, he expects Costa to put together enough work to win on the scorecards, though not confidently.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Alessandro Costa, noting his experience against top flyweights like Amir Albazi and Steve Erceg. He describes Costa as explosive, dangerous, and powerful, while dismissing Alden Coria as a short-notice debutant who hasn't beaten anyone of note. He gives Coria only a 1 in 10 chance of an upset.
Zane picks Costa, describing him as a bull who is physically imposing and tough. He notes that Coria is a tit-for-tat striker who lets opponents bring the fight to him, and Costa's pressure will be too much. He mentions that Coria has been outworked before and his style is waiting to be pressure tested.
Stewart Nicoll - Fight History
AJ picks Alden Coria by KO, noting Coria's striking advantage and Nicoll's 0-3 UFC record. He believes Coria will land head strikes or body shots to set up a knockout, and likes the KO prop at +135. He considers Nicoll average and expects Coria to look for a highlight reel finish.
AJ is extremely confident in Coria, calling him an 'S-tier side' against an 0-3 UFC fighter. He believes Coria wins everywhere: striking, wrestling, and possibly by submission. AJ notes Nicoll's spinning attacks leave him open and expects a lopsided decision or knockout.
AJ picks Alden Coria to win by KO, noting Coria is a well-rounded athlete with knockout power facing Stewart Nicoll, who is 0-3 in the UFC and primarily a grappler. He sees this as a confidence-building fight for Coria, who should deliver a highlight-reel knockout.
AJ is extremely confident in Alden Coria, a massive favorite, due to his superior kickboxing, athleticism, and technical striking. He expects Coria to dominate and potentially knock out Stewart Nicoll, who is sloppy and prone to spinning attacks. He notes Coria's wrestling and well-roundedness, and predicts a second or third round knockout or a lopsided decision.
Angelo is extremely confident Alden Coria will win, calling him a very good prospect with clean technique everywhere. However, he is fading Coria in DFS due to his high salary and inconsistent scoring, even in wins.
Angelo is extremely confident in Alden Coria, calling him the biggest favorite on the card and saying he should be minus 4000. He believes Coria is better in all areas: wrestling, striking, and grappling, and that Stewart Nicoll will lose his fourth UFC fight in a row. He recommends betting on Coria.
Big Brady confidently picks Alden Coria, calling it a squash match. He notes Coria's good volume, pressure, and grappling, while Stewart Nicoll has poor wrestling and can't get the fight to the ground. He predicts Coria will piece him up and finish by second-round knockout.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Alden Coria, calling him a 'complete spot and a layout' against Stewart Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's non-existent wrestling and inability to get the fight to the ground, while Coria should dominate and finish. He advises against betting the moneyline at -1000 and suggests knockout props or round props instead.
Cody is very confident in Coria, citing his volume, takedown defense, and striking precision. He notes Nicoll's poor takedown accuracy (11%) and inability to hold opponents down. He thinks Coria will piece Nicoll up and likely get a TKO, though he mentions the minus 1000 price is steep.
Daniel Levi picks Alden Coria to dominate Stewart Nicoll, stating Nicoll does not belong in the UFC while Coria is a future ranked fighter. He praises Coria's boxing, takedown defense, and complete skill set, and expects him to box up Nicoll and win dominantly.
Coria is a massive favorite, but his takedown defense and ground game are unknown because his past opponents didn't fully commit to takedowns. Nicoll could have an edge on the ground, but there's no footage to confirm. The host finds no betting value and passes on this fight.
Lucrative James picks Alden Coria to win by knockout, citing Coria's superior striking and overall skills. He notes that Nicoll is not UFC level and Coria is a prospect who should easily finish him. He expects Coria to execute and get a finish, possibly by knockout.
Coria is a sharp, fast striker with improved defensive grappling, while Nicoll has struggled in the UFC with a 0-3 record and poor takedown success. Coria should be able to keep the fight standing and land damaging strikes, eventually finishing Nicoll by TKO in the latter half of round two or round three. The over 1.5 rounds is also a viable play given Nicoll's durability.
The host expects Coria to continue his UFC success by out-striking and stopping the takedowns of the BJJ black belt. He predicts a knockout in round two or three.
Paul agrees Coria is the clear pick, noting Nicoll's 0-3 UFC record and 11% takedown accuracy. He thinks Coria's striking and scrambling will overwhelm Nicoll, who has been beaten up in recent fights. He calls the line wide but sees no value in betting against Coria.
The MMA Guru picks Alden Coria, noting he is a -1100 favorite for a reason. He compares Coria's win over Alessandro Costa to Nicoll's loss to Costa, highlighting Coria's size and power advantage. He predicts a first or second round TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 1 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 47 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 47 of 99 | 47% | 47 of 99 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 27 of 59 | 45% | 27 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 27 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alessandro Costa | 43 of 89 | 48% | 26 of 67 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 9 | 41 of 85 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 47 of 99 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 12 of 16 | 9 of 10 | 47 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alessandro Costa | 20 of 46 | 43% | 11 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 20 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 27 of 59 | 45% | 13 of 42 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 10 | 27 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alessandro Costa | 23 of 43 | 53% | 15 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 20 of 40 | 50% | 13 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Costa (-400); Nicoll (+300)
Round 1
It has not been sunshine and rainbows for these two flyweights colliding, winner of just two of their five combined appearances in the promotion thus far. Costa (14-5, 2-3 UFC) is the one who has actually prevailed, while proud Aussie Nicoll (8-2, 0-2 UFC) is aiming for his first UFC triumph. Standing guard over the flyweights will be referee Chris Tognoni, who stands back as they scurry towards one another to touch gloves.
Costa leads off pressuring forward, and this puts him in the path of a sudden spin kick from the Aussie. Costa shrugs it off and looses a pair of kicks, and he watches a spinning back kick soar past his face. Nicoll goes to the well again with another spinning kick, and it bangs into the guard. He tosses out a spinning back fist, and nearly has his leg kicked out when he plants his feet again. Costa jackhammers the front leg again, and it does not take many for Nicoll to think about another way in. Both men keep low bases as if to prepare against and preemptively defend a takedown, thus resulting in a tit-for-tat kickboxing affair. Nicoll stands in the pocket too long and gets battered back with a trio of fast punches, and he shakes his head as if to motion that he was not caught. Costa celebrates his handiwork by ripping a left to the ribs, and he has his guard up to block the eventual spin.
Costa rattles punches off the guard and kicks the front leg, and he nails the Aussie with a few punches. Nicoll has to take a quick count of his teeth before re-engaging, where he is met with sweeping calf kicks. Nicoll offers up his own leg kick on the inside, and they trade their leg-based strikes back-and-forth. Costa hammers the body again, and Nicoll crashes the pocket to grip hold of a single. “Nono” says “no no” to the takedown effort and drives Nicoll back, and he ducks a spinning back fist and catches the Aussie. Nicoll grins after absorbing a strike or two, and he plants his shin on Costa’s lead calf. Costa punches high and ducks down to shoot, but he elects instead to drive a flying knee into the chin. Nicoll gets hurt with a body shot, and he counters Costa coming in with a fierce right hand and offers up a spinning back fist but is taking shots on the way out. With Nicoll grinning like a banshee, the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Costa
Round 2
The flyweights touch gloves to start off the round, and Nicoll reintroduces himself with a jabbing front kick. It partially grazes the up, so he offers up an apology as there is no stoppage. Costa steps in with a left and gets clubbed with a check left hook. Costa surges forward with a pair of hooks, backing off to not get caught on the way out. Costa thumps the leg with a kick and slaps at Nicoll with an overhand right, and he is well aware when Nicoll offers back a spinning back kick. Nicoll tries a leaping back fist that does not do anything, and Costa shoots in for a double and is a hair away from getting Nicoll down. Nicoll frames off but ends up getting dropped on his head, with Costa taking his back. Nicoll takes a few elbows to the back of the head as he looks to wriggle Costa off his back standing, and Costa readjusts himself to not slide off. Costa disengages the back take and the two return to the center of the cage offering jabs.
Costa goes to the body with a kick, and Nicoll does the same. Nicoll sneaks in two punches, and he follows them with two more and a level change. Costa puts his back to the fence and uses his leverage to turn Nicoll around and lean him on the cage. Costa turns his foe around to knee him in the gut, and he ducks away when Nicoll hurls punches at him. Costa loads up with power punches, and he bangs heavy hooks off the sides of Nicoll’s dome. A takedown falls apart, and Costa knees Nicoll square in the face. Nicoll smiles back at him. Costa surprises Nicoll with a spinning back elbow, and he follows it with a jump knee and may have hurt Nicoll. The Brazilian strikes out with another flying knee, and instead of continuing to throw hands and feet, he grapples. Costa looks for a standing back take, but ends up getting wrenched off and has to reset. Costa eventually telegraphs a shot, and Nicoll stands him up.
Winding up with everything he has as seconds remain on the clock, the Lobo Gym MMA fighter unleashes a ferocious left hook that smashes square into Nicoll’s liver. Nicoll collapses to his knees, totally defeated, and Costa only needs one single finalizing punch that connects while Tognoni is already intervening.
What a body shot, and what a performance from “Nono” to put himself back to a .500 UFC fighter. Bas Rutten is smiling somewhere after that broken liver showcase.
The Official Result
Alessandro Costa def. Stewart Nicoll R2 4:56 via KO (Punch to the Body)
Angelo picks Alessandro Costa, believing he is better than his record and will bust up Stewart Nicoll. He notes Costa's power, leg kicks, and striking accuracy, while Nicoll is hitable on the feet and his takedowns are desperate. Angelo dismisses Costa's last loss due to a freak foot injury and expects Costa to be well-prepared for Nicoll's wrestling.
Big Brady picks Alessandro Costa by second-round knockout. He likes Costa's power, opportunistic jiu-jitsu, and takedown defense. He criticizes Nicoll's wrestling, noting he went 2-for-20 on takedowns against Lucas Rocha, who has no takedown defense. He expects Costa to knock out Nicoll on the feet.
Cody picks Costa, citing his takedown defense and power. He expects Costa to stuff Nicoll's takedowns and land heavy shots, winning by decision or late TKO.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Costa confidently. He emphasizes that Nicoll is too excitable and not technical enough, often making wrong moves and allowing opponents to dictate. Costa's aggression and physicality should overwhelm Nicoll, who has shown a tendency to leapfrog into submissions and get overexcited.
The host sees potential value on Nicoll due to Costa's weakness on the ground, but is not confident enough to bet pre-fight. He notes Nicoll's persistent wrestling could exploit Costa's poor ground game, but Costa's power and takedown defense make it risky. He prefers to watch for live betting.
James picks Alessandro Costa via TKO in round two, citing Costa's athleticism, striking power, and training with Diego Lopez. He notes Nicoll's limited striking and tendency to be submitted, but warns Costa has poor round threes and has been knocked out twice. He believes Costa's physicality and finishing ability will be enough to get the job done inside the distance, as he has in his other UFC wins.
The host believes Costa is the better striker with a nasty calf kick and good enough grappling to neutralize Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's two-fight losing streak and struggles in the UFC. He expects Costa to win inside the distance, possibly via TKO from the calf kick. He is willing to parlay Costa.
Paul picks Costa, noting Nicoll's poor wrestling and durability issues. He expects Costa to win, possibly by KO, but warns the moneyline is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alessandro Costa, noting he dropped Erceg and has finishes, while Stewart Nicoll looked incapable of causing harm in his last fight. He believes Costa's explosiveness will lead to a TKO victory.
Zane picks Costa confidently, noting that Costa is a reliable action fighter who dictates the pace with aggression and physicality. He sees Nicoll as too excitable and not technical enough, prone to making wrong moves and getting overwhelmed. Costa's determination to go forward and toughness should overcome Nicoll's lack of composure.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 0 | 115 of 226 | 50% | 130 of 244 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 45 of 138 | 32% | 46 of 139 | 2 of 20 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 15 of 40 | 37% | 15 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 1:30 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 40 of 87 | 45% | 49 of 96 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 0 | 60 of 99 | 60% | 66 of 108 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Rocha | 115 of 226 | 50% | 81 of 184 | 30 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 100 of 205 | 11 of 15 | 4 of 6 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 45 of 138 | 32% | 41 of 133 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 45 of 135 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucas Rocha | 15 of 40 | 37% | 9 of 32 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 14 of 38 | 36% | 11 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Lucas Rocha | 40 of 87 | 45% | 28 of 70 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 31 of 74 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 21 of 54 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Lucas Rocha | 60 of 99 | 60% | 44 of 82 | 14 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 55 of 94 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 10 of 46 | 21% | 10 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Lucas Rocha based on his brain over gut feeling. He notes Lucas is the more dangerous fighter and that Stewart doesn't like forward pressure. However, he acknowledges Lucas's poor takedown defense and the risk of being taken down. He does not bet the moneyline but suggests under 2.5 rounds as a play.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Stewart Nicoll, expecting takedowns to come easy and Nicoll to find a submission. He notes Nicoll is a talented grappler with nasty ground and pound, but made a mistake in his last fight by getting caught in a guillotine. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha is dangerous on the feet with power and flying knees, but has no striking or takedown defense. Brady sees it as a striker vs grappler matchup and picks Nicoll by second-round submission.
Cody picks Nicoll but is hesitant due to his previous loss by guillotine. He notes Rocha's inability to grapple and Nicoll's path to victory, but worries about travel and Brazilian judging. He suggests checking Nicoll's arrival in Brazil.
Lucrative James picks Stewart Nicoll as an underdog, citing Nicoll's tenacious grappling and takedown ability. He acknowledges Lucas Rocha's striking advantage and knockout power, but believes Nicoll's wrestling and cardio will be decisive. He notes that Rocha has been taken down multiple times in past fights and submitted. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll was submitted in his last fight and his jiu-jitsu may not be slick enough to finish Rocha. He sees the fight ending inside the distance.
Manpreet picks Nicoll at plus money, believing his grappling and control will stifle Rocha's Muay Thai. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and ability to take the back, and expects him to win by decision. He considers the plus 100 a value line, as Nicoll would be a favorite if not for his debut loss.
Paul picks Nicoll, citing Rocha's poor grappling and ballooned record. He notes Nicoll's BJJ black belt and physical strength, and expects him to take Rocha down and submit or control him. He warns about travel concerns but sees value.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Lucas Rocha, believing Rocha is too small for flyweight at 5'3". He trusts Nicoll's physicality, grappling, and Australian fighting spirit. He predicts a decision win or late submission/TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 0 | 8 of 17 | 47% | 15 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jesus Aguilar | 8 of 17 | 47% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 13 |
| Stewart Nicoll | 3 of 5 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nicoll (-230), Aguilar (+190)
Round 1
In what might become a yearly stop for the UFC, the RAC Arena in Perth, Australia, is playing host to the promotion today. Like UFC 284 last year, 2024’s UFC 305 package contains plenty of locals with favorable matchups that could result in some thrilling violence. Nine of the 12 fights tonight feature a competitor from or repping Australia or New Zealand, with one pitting an Aussie against a Kiwi, and the other two seeing a Chinese welterweight take center stage. We kick things off with a classic matchup of Australia vs. Mexico as Nicoll (8-0, 0-0 UFC) introduces himself to the organization with the crowd at his back. He battles the overweight Aguilar (10-2, 2-1 UFC), who hit the scales a pound and a half above the flyweight limit to surrender 20% of his purse to his opponent. The referee for the first fight of the night is Steve Perceval, and he kicks things off as the fighters touch gloves. Nicoll introduces himself with a leg kick effort, and his second is met with counters from the Mexican. Aguilar charges him, swinging fists and ultimately clinching up before suddenly grabbing the Aussie from behind. Nicoll responds with a kimura sweep that puts them both on the mat, and he flips around to take the back of his opponent and get hooks in. Nicoll opens up with powerful punches from both sides of the head, and he briefly flattens Aguilar out as he beats on him. Aguilar gets to his knees and spins himself around to put his back on the mat, and Nicoll does not mind this as he hacks down with elbows. Nicoll knees the belly when he sits postured up, and he lands a few punches but finds himself off-balance. Nicoll gets rolled upside-down, and he finds himself doing a handstand with Aguilar hanging on in an effort to throw him down. When Nicoll recovers, Aguilar jumps guard with a guillotine choke, and it is immediately tight.
Aguilar fastens his legs around the waist of his opponent, and Nicoll tries to slither his neck out but he is bone dry and trapped in a precarious position. Aguilar alerts Perceval that Nicoll may be out, and Perceval tests the resistance of Nicoll’s right arm. It flops to the ground. Perceval lifts the lifeless limb again before he intervenes, and he and Aguilar roll Nicoll to his back to demonstrate that Nicoll is completely unconscious with his eyes eerily stuck open.
Aguilar sits up and lifts the legs of his defeated opponent to flow the blood back to Nicoll’s cranium. Just like that, Nicoll has been ejected from the ranks of the unbeaten, and Aguilar has totally silenced the crowd. It may be disappointing to Aguilar that he has forfeited his opportunity to claim post-fight bonus money by missing weight, as that sleep-inducing submission might have been otherwise worthy of an extra check.
The Official Result
Jesus Santos Aguilar def. Stewart Nicoll R1 2:39 via Technical Submission (Guillotine Choke)
Angelo picks Stewart Nicoll to win based on his wrestling advantage, believing Nicoll can get takedowns and control the fight. However, he is hesitant because Nicoll is a 2-to-1 favorite against a tough opponent in Jesus Aguilar, who is dangerous with guillotines. Angelo notes that Nicoll is undefeated but untested at this level, similar to Danny Barlow last week, so he avoids betting but leans Nicoll.
Big Brady picks Stewart Nicoll to win by second-round submission. He notes Nicoll's wrestling and ground-and-pound are very good, and that Jesus Aguilar has 40% takedown defense and has been submitted in both of his losses. He believes the takedowns will come fairly easy for Nicoll, and once on top, his ground-and-pound can open up submissions. He acknowledges this is Nicoll's toughest test to date but is confident in his path to victory.
Cody is impressed with Nicoll's regional tape, noting his relentless takedowns, top control, and nasty elbows. He believes Aguilar has poor takedown defense and has been controlled by lesser wrestlers. Cody expects Nicoll to dominate and possibly submit Aguilar.
Daniel Vreeland picks Stewart Nicoll to win, expecting him to take Aguilar down and control the fight. He notes that Aguilar has poor takedown defense and low output, while Nicoll has good cardio, strength, and tenacity. Vreeland believes Nicoll will grind out a decision or submission.
The host leans to Nicoll, citing his technical superiority in all aspects of MMA against Aguilar. He notes Nicoll's grinding grappling approach and BJJ black belt, but acknowledges Aguilar's power and guillotine threat. He expects Nicoll to dominate and finish within two or three rounds, possibly by club and sub.
Paul likes Nicoll's wrestling and pace, and notes that Aguilar has been taken down by everyone who tried. He mentions Nicoll's submission threat and expects a finish. Paul calls Nicoll a legit prospect and believes the UFC gave him a favorable matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Stewart Nicoll over Jesus Aguilar. He notes that Aguilar is explosive but Nicoll is similarly sized and has a grappling style that pins opponents against the cage, dragging them down and controlling them on the ground. He criticizes Aguilar's wins over Menona and Shannon Ross, calling Ross an easy KO for everyone. He also mentions Nicoll's home country advantage in Australia. He expects Nicoll to control the fight with his grinding style.
Expert Picks (16)
AJ picks Alden Coria by KO, noting Coria's striking advantage and Nicoll's 0-3 UFC record. He believes Coria will land head strikes or body shots to set up a knockout, and likes the KO prop at +135. He considers Nicoll average and expects Coria to look for a highlight reel finish.
AJ is extremely confident in Coria, calling him an 'S-tier side' against an 0-3 UFC fighter. He believes Coria wins everywhere: striking, wrestling, and possibly by submission. AJ notes Nicoll's spinning attacks leave him open and expects a lopsided decision or knockout.
AJ picks Alden Coria to win by KO, noting Coria is a well-rounded athlete with knockout power facing Stewart Nicoll, who is 0-3 in the UFC and primarily a grappler. He sees this as a confidence-building fight for Coria, who should deliver a highlight-reel knockout.
AJ is extremely confident in Alden Coria, a massive favorite, due to his superior kickboxing, athleticism, and technical striking. He expects Coria to dominate and potentially knock out Stewart Nicoll, who is sloppy and prone to spinning attacks. He notes Coria's wrestling and well-roundedness, and predicts a second or third round knockout or a lopsided decision.
Angelo is extremely confident Alden Coria will win, calling him a very good prospect with clean technique everywhere. However, he is fading Coria in DFS due to his high salary and inconsistent scoring, even in wins.
Angelo is extremely confident in Alden Coria, calling him the biggest favorite on the card and saying he should be minus 4000. He believes Coria is better in all areas: wrestling, striking, and grappling, and that Stewart Nicoll will lose his fourth UFC fight in a row. He recommends betting on Coria.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Alden Coria, calling him a 'complete spot and a layout' against Stewart Nicoll. He notes Nicoll's non-existent wrestling and inability to get the fight to the ground, while Coria should dominate and finish. He advises against betting the moneyline at -1000 and suggests knockout props or round props instead.
Big Brady confidently picks Alden Coria, calling it a squash match. He notes Coria's good volume, pressure, and grappling, while Stewart Nicoll has poor wrestling and can't get the fight to the ground. He predicts Coria will piece him up and finish by second-round knockout.
Cody is very confident in Coria, citing his volume, takedown defense, and striking precision. He notes Nicoll's poor takedown accuracy (11%) and inability to hold opponents down. He thinks Coria will piece Nicoll up and likely get a TKO, though he mentions the minus 1000 price is steep.
Daniel Levi picks Alden Coria to dominate Stewart Nicoll, stating Nicoll does not belong in the UFC while Coria is a future ranked fighter. He praises Coria's boxing, takedown defense, and complete skill set, and expects him to box up Nicoll and win dominantly.
Coria is a massive favorite, but his takedown defense and ground game are unknown because his past opponents didn't fully commit to takedowns. Nicoll could have an edge on the ground, but there's no footage to confirm. The host finds no betting value and passes on this fight.
Lucrative James picks Alden Coria to win by knockout, citing Coria's superior striking and overall skills. He notes that Nicoll is not UFC level and Coria is a prospect who should easily finish him. He expects Coria to execute and get a finish, possibly by knockout.
The host expects Coria to continue his UFC success by out-striking and stopping the takedowns of the BJJ black belt. He predicts a knockout in round two or three.
Coria is a sharp, fast striker with improved defensive grappling, while Nicoll has struggled in the UFC with a 0-3 record and poor takedown success. Coria should be able to keep the fight standing and land damaging strikes, eventually finishing Nicoll by TKO in the latter half of round two or round three. The over 1.5 rounds is also a viable play given Nicoll's durability.
Paul agrees Coria is the clear pick, noting Nicoll's 0-3 UFC record and 11% takedown accuracy. He thinks Coria's striking and scrambling will overwhelm Nicoll, who has been beaten up in recent fights. He calls the line wide but sees no value in betting against Coria.
The MMA Guru picks Alden Coria, noting he is a -1100 favorite for a reason. He compares Coria's win over Alessandro Costa to Nicoll's loss to Costa, highlighting Coria's size and power advantage. He predicts a first or second round TKO.
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