UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman · Jul 18, 2026 · Middleweight · Scheduled
UFC Fight Night: Du Plessis vs. Usman Next Fight
Age 32
Height 6' 1"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 39
Height 6' 0"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Career Averages - Dricus du Plessis
5.18 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
4.33 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
2.22 TD Avg
51.0% TD Acc.
34.0% TD Def.
0.7 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Kamaru Usman
4.16 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.67 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.79 TD Avg
44.0% TD Acc.
89.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Dricus du Plessis
Moneyline
Betfair Exchange -200
KO/TKO
FanDuel +250
Submission
FanDuel +950
Decision
Cloudbet 3.36
Kamaru Usman
Moneyline
LeoVegas +250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +600
Submission
FanDuel +2500
Decision
Cloudbet 5.61
Dricus du Plessis - Fight History
SCHED vs Kamaru Usman
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis to knock out Kamaru Usman. He believes du Plessis's awkward striking, power, and improved takedown defense will be key against the 39-year-old Usman, who has been inactive and has bad knees. He expects du Plessis to land a big overhand or body kick and finish in the middle rounds, possibly after surviving some early grappling.

Du Plessis by KO, under 3.5 rounds (+165), du Plessis to win inside distance
"I'm going Drius Duplexi to beat Camaro Usman. Come on now."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his punching power, takedown defense, and cardio. He believes du Plessis will stop Usman's takedowns and land big overhands, potentially knocking out the aging Usman. AJ notes du Plessis's chaotic style and ability to change the fight in an instant, while Usman's best days are behind him.

du Plessis by KO +205
"I think Drius Duplexi is back in the biggest of ways this Saturday and I'm picking him to win by knockout against Kamar Usman."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ backs Du Plessis, citing his power, forward pressure, and offensive wrestling. He notes Usman's inactivity and age (39) and believes Du Plessis can hurt him late. AJ acknowledges Du Plessis's defensive wrestling flaws but thinks his toughness and motivation (Africa rivalry) will carry him.

Du Plessis by KO (rounds 3-5); Du Plessis in parlay
"Dricus Du Plessis minus 240. Yes, I'm believing in the Du Plessis dream... I think Dricus Du Plessis is live to pull this one out by KO, actually, a later stage KO between rounds three and five."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis by KO, believing his awkward power and size advantage will overwhelm an aging Usman. He notes Usman's wrestling may control early, but DDP's never-say-die attitude and looping shots will find a home later. He is not confident in the odds but sees DDP as the pick.

DDP by KO (+200), DDP by submission (+950), Usman by decision (+425)
"I'm going Duplexi to keep his king of Africa belt wrapped tightly around his waist."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks DDP because he believes DDP's brute force, size, and relentless pace will overwhelm Usman. He notes that DDP can shoot his own takedowns and won't wait, and if he fights like he did against Strickland, he wins clearly. He acknowledges Usman's path via wrestling but thinks DDP is too big and strong.

"I think DDP is too big, too strong, too much of a brute, too much of a bruiser."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks DDP but is hesitant to bet. He notes DDP's brute strength and cardio, but acknowledges Usman's wrestling could cause problems, as seen in DDP's fight against Khamzat Chimaev where he was taken down 12 times. He thinks DDP's strength advantage will overcome any skill gap, but he's not confident enough to bet the moneyline, instead considering a round line over.

round line over
"I'm going to pick DDP here. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on a bet. So, I might just stick to a round line over."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting that many are on Usman but the line is moving toward Dricus. He argues that Usman's win over Joaquin Buckley was not dominant and that Usman is nearly 40 with bad knees. He believes Dricus will stuff takedowns and get back up easily since Usman lacks submission threat, unlike Khamzat Chimaev. He is considering Dricus moneyline if the odds improve, or inside the distance/KO props.

Dricus du Plessis moneyline (if line drops), Dricus inside the distance, Dricus KO
"I think it's Dricus here. You know, Dricus, I think he's going to stuff some takedowns here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting Usman's age (39) and knee issues. He believes du Plessis will do better work on the feet and that Usman won't be able to hold him down. He predicts a decision win, citing Usman's durability.

"I'm going Drias here. ... give me Drias by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody acknowledges Kamaru Usman's stylistic advantages like a good jab and wrestling, but leans heavily on Dricus du Plessis due to age (Usman is 39), size, and Dricus's proven takedown ability against top competition. He notes Dricus is younger, has held the belt, and matches physicality, making him the play despite Usman's tempting plus money.

Dricus moneyline; over 3.5 rounds at -185 preferred over moneyline
"I think he's got a shot, but I feel like Drakus is the play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Connor picks Usman despite acknowledging the size disadvantage, because he trusts Usman's wrestling and game planning more than du Plessis's ability to improve. He notes that du Plessis's mindset of fighting out of bad positions rather than preventing them is a fundamental flaw that may not be fixable. He also points out that Usman's jab and relentless takedown ability could wear down du Plessis even if Usman gets tired. However, he admits that if du Plessis were welterweight size, he would pick Usman in a heartbeat.

Odds: Usman +195 underdog. Connor notes the line is reasonable.
"I'm going to pick Usman. All right. You know, I'm just hoping it's one of those nights. He's going to hit his takedown and then he starts to get tired and the place is like, now's my moment. And then …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis to win, citing age advantage (du Plessis entering prime vs Usman near 40) and du Plessis's year off to recover and improve his get-up game. He believes du Plessis's awkward, violent striking will eventually overwhelm Usman, predicting a late second or third round finish. He notes Usman's stiffness on the feet and declining durability, while acknowledging du Plessis's wrestling vulnerabilities but expecting him to survive takedowns.

finish prediction: late second or third round KO/TKO
"I got Drizz Dupy to come out here, get back on track and finish Camaro Usman."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a massive underdog at +190, and the host believes these odds are insane. Du Plessis's takedown defense and ground game were exposed badly against Khamzat Chimaev, where he looked like a white belt. Usman is one of the best MMA grapplers ever and has elite cardio. The host sees no reason why Usman can't replicate Chimaev's performance, giving Usman at least a 40% chance of winning, which provides a 7% margin over the bookie.

Bet Usman moneyline at +190.
"it's an absolute no-brainer to bet Kamaro Usman at odds of 2.90 plus 190 for an implied probability of 33%."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to win by knockout, citing du Plessis's power, athleticism, and durability advantages as the fight goes later. He notes that Kamaru Usman is aging and has shown a deteriorating chin, while du Plessis has more tools on the feet and better cardio for a five-round fight. However, he believes the odds are too wide and considers betting on Usman or the fight not going to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, du Plessis KO
"I'm going to pick Drius Dublacy via knockout in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman's wrestling and durability should be the difference; he can grind out du Plessis by landing takedowns and controlling the fight. du Plessis has shown vulnerability to strong grapplers like Khamzat Chimaev, and Usman is a similar style fighter with proven cardio. At plus money, Usman is a strong value pick to win a decision.

Usman by decision, du Plessis by knockout as a hedge
"I'm going to lean on Usman just being a little bit more effective and finding safety in his wrestling when he needs it. ... I'm going Kamar Usman. I'm going to go Usman by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host notes Usman's durability and believes his transition to 185 lbs will be successful due to his frame. He expects Usman to get to his wrestling game, wear down du Plessis, and win a decision.

"I believe his transition up to 185 lbs will be kind of successful. He has the frame for it as he'll only be giving up, I believe, 1 in in height, but will have the same reach as du Plessis …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, citing volume and Dricus's ability to control on the mat, unlike Usman who hasn't shown that type of control. He mentions Dricus could get a good jump early, so live betting is not a cop-out. He prefers Dricus moneyline but isn't overly excited about it.

Dricus moneyline
"Drius is the side for me and you can't I can't I can't even have the live betting cop out because like Drius very well could get a good jump on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Kamaru Usman, citing du Plessis' youth, power, and five-round experience. He believes Usman cannot keep du Plessis down like Khamzat did and that du Plessis will wear on Usman with body and low kicks. He predicts a TKO in round three.

TKO in round three, body kicks, low kicks
"I'm going with Dricus Du Plessis... I think he's going to TKO Kamaru Usman in round three with big shots up against the cage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis primarily due to size advantage, noting du Plessis is much bigger than Joaquin Buckley and that Usman's wrestling success against Buckley may not translate to holding down a larger opponent. He also questions Usman's durability at age 39 and the sustainability of his wrestling-heavy approach. However, he acknowledges Usman's wrestling credentials and the possibility that du Plessis hasn't improved his defensive wrestling since the Chimaev fight.

Odds: du Plessis -230 favorite, Usman +195 underdog. Zane notes the line seems reasonable.
"The big reason that I am picking Du Plessy here... is quite frankly, Du Plessy is just bigger. He's just a lot bigger than Joaquin Buckley."
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 29 44% 45 of 68 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 37 of 47 78% 529 of 567 12 of 17 70% 0 0 21:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 1 of 2 50% 131 of 137 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:47
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 0 of 2 0% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 5 80% 79 of 81 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:47
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 1 of 2 50% 9 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 19 of 22 86% 156 of 164 3 of 3 100% 0 0 4:46
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 2 of 5 40% 8 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Khamzat Chimaev 0 4 of 6 66% 76 of 85 3 of 5 60% 0 0 4:26
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 10 of 20 50% 19 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:53
Khamzat Chimaev 0 9 of 12 75% 87 of 100 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 13 of 29 44% 10 of 24 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 37 of 47 78% 28 of 36 3 of 5 6 of 6 12 of 19 0 of 0 25 of 28
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 5 80% 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 4
3 Dricus du Plessis 1 of 2 50% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 19 of 22 86% 19 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 19 of 22
4 Dricus du Plessis 2 of 5 40% 1 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Khamzat Chimaev 4 of 6 66% 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 10 of 20 50% 8 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 4
Khamzat Chimaev 9 of 12 75% 6 of 9 1 of 1 2 of 2 8 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-238), du Plessis (+195)

Round 1
Let’s be honest: this is what you came here to see. The other fights tonight were pretty solid, nothing extraordinary with mixed results featuring some duds and a few good knockouts. This middleweight championship battle is one that people have marked on their calendar the day it was announced, and it was one fans have been waiting for since Chimaev (14-0, 8-0 UFC) won in the Octagon three times in 2020. The so-called boogeyman has his time to shine tonight, but he will have to get through Du Plessis (23-2, 9-0 UFC). Irresistible force, meet immovable object. No one has gotten past “DDP” in the UFC to date, but Chimaev is expected by the betting populace and fan contingent to go home with the belt. Referee Marc Goddard takes the final assignment of the evening, bringing the two 185ers to the center of the cage. They are so fired up and intense that they crash into each other when staring down, but they do touch gloves after all. Let’s all take a deep breath here. It’s on with the show.
Chimaev pushes out a front kick and shoots for a double, and Du Plessis rolls through it but ends up winding up on his back within 15 seconds. Du Plessis briefly considers a guillotine choke off his back, but when Chimaev considers a Von Preux shoulder choke, Du Plessis abandons it. Chimaev is already in side control in the center of the cage, and he wraps up the champ’s right arm in a crucifix position. Chimaev starts pounding on the side of the head, and a few punches land to the back of the head as Goddard is paying attention. Chimaev keeps beating on the downed champion with short but scoring punches, and Du Plessis bucks and kicks to try to get out. With Du Plessis’ face turned to Chimaev’s chest, the punches have little on them even as they add up like a big brother bullying a young sibling.
Chimaev keeps smacking his foe with any free hand, and he flirts with an arm-triangle choke when Du Plessis wrenches his arm free. Du Plessis’ bucks and twists allow him to put his feet on the fence, and he pushes off of it while not hooking his toes in the fencing. Chimaev stays tight as a drum on top, bopping “Stillknocks” with his irritating little punches. When Chimaev steps to get to mount, Du Plessis illegally grabs the cage to reposition himself and Goddard admonishes him for it. Chimaev knees him in the side once or twice when he puts Du Plessis flat on his back again. Goddard asks the challenger to do more in this position, and it is Du Plessis who twists all the way around not just to get out of the bad position but escapes the brief back take. The champ thinks about another guillotine choke, and Chimaev flips him over and elbows him to concluded the one-sided round. As a rule-based reminder, 10-8 rounds now must have damage as a mandatory criteria.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 2
The fighters strike for a second or two before Chimaev advances in pursuit of a takedown. Du Plessis defends well enough to crawl his way to the cage wall without ever fully going down, but Chimaev is behind him ragdolling him. Du Plessis stands, and the challenger hurls him right back down to the floor from behind. Du Plessis works his way back to the fencing again all while Chimaev clings to him like malicious Saran wrap. Chimaev knees him in the back and side a few times, and Du Plessis appears unconcerned but is completely nullified a round and a half in. Chimaev spams knees to the posterior as Du Plessis posts off his hands, and he wrenches the South African to the floor and starts fishing for chokes or face cranks.
The champ recognizes the peril he is in and hand-fights to defend any submission from coming close to materializing, so Chimaev strips his other leg out and puts him on both knees once more. Chimaev tries to climb onto the back and get a hook in, but he settles for knees to the thigh. The audience wants more. Du Plessis defends left hands to the side of his head, and only a few get through. Chimaev reaches either arm around the chest like a mean-spirited seatbelt, and Du Plessis uses two-on-one wrist control to thwart it from progressing. Chimaev lands a knee or two in the ribs, fully controlling “DDP” and disallowing him from landing a single noteworthy blow. Chimaev hangs on until the round ends, and Du Plessis winks at him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
Du Plessis says hello with a quick kick, and he scores a left hand as Chimaev advances. Chimaev ignores it as he is already after a takedown, where he lifts up the champion in the air and hurls him to the floor. Du Plessis stands up, and Chimaev uses the body lock to toss him back down, where he moves right to side control. Chimaev smothers his man, and he moves to set up another crucifix as Goddard asks for more activity than little swatting punches. Chimaev secures the crucifix he was seeking by looping his legs around the champ’s right arm, and he pummels him with short, annoying fists. The strike totals may be through the roof, and the damage begins mounting as Du Plessis’ face is busted open a smidge.
Chimaev stays in the dominant position smacking him upside the head, and Du Plessis has absolutely no answers but motions a thumbs-up to his team as if he knows something we don’t even as Chimaev has landed well over 200 strikes on him in the last two-and-a-half rounds. Chimaev switchers to elbows, and blood flows a bit more from the wound on the champion’s face. Chimaev releases the grip on the arm and steps into full mount, knowing that Du Plessis will turn to give up his back. Du Plessis defends a choke grip but Chimaev has both hooks in elbowing the champ repeatedly. Du Plessis sits up, and Chimaev threatens with a brabo choke as the bell sounds. When the champion stands, he shrugs.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-8 Chimaev

Round 4
The championship rounds are here, and Du Plessis is not broken and signals to the crowd to get pumped up. Chimaev tosses out a front kick, and he backs off to avoid a one-two. Chimaev tries for a body kick that he turns to a takedown, and Du Plessis spins out of it to stop the first try. The challenger is a dog with a bone when it comes to the grappling, and he succeeds in wrestling the champion down to the mat. Du Plessis positions himself towards the fencing while on his knees, and Chimaev works on either side of his body with peppering knees. Du Plessis explodes back to his feet, and Chimaev mat returns him with relative ease in a real “there’s levels to this” showcase. Du Plessis may manage to again get to his knees, and Goddard tells Chimaev to do more than knee him in the backside. Chimaev answers by pulling the champ away from the cage and putting him down. Du Plessis stands, and the mat return is almost instant. Few champs have been wholly dominated in such a fashion.
Du Plessis feebly rolls to try to escape, and this only puts him at a disadvantageous position with Chimaev hooking up a crucifix by keeping his knee on the champ’s right bicep. Du Plessis is warned for toes in the fence when trying to push off the wall, and after some light knees from Chimaev, Goddard stands them up. Du Plessis strikes with a body kick, and the marauding challenger hurls him to the ground. Once Du Plessis hits the mat, he shows someone a thumbs-up, but it is an empty gesture. With Du Plessis wearing down, Chimaev goes after a few chokes that do not materialize. Twenty minutes are in the books.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 5
Chimaev starts off the last round with a head kick, and he blocks one that comes back his way. Du Plessis puts a one-two on the chin, and Chimaev responds with a jab and a takedown shot. The South African cannot get away before the challenger’s arms are wrapped around him taking him to the floor. Chimaev quickly sets up a crucifix again, where he starts beating on the champ with soft punches. Du Plessis uses a kimura grip to sweep, allowing him to get to his knees and out of the bad spot. Chimaev holds onto him from behind, dragging Du Plessis to the ground the moment Du Plessis stands.
In a moment of explosive desperation, Du Plessis manages to flip Chimaev to his back, where he jumps for a guillotine choke in a move that may even have Dustin Poirier screaming at the fighters—since he is in the booth upstairs, and not home yelling at his television. The choke has nothing on it with the two so sweaty, and Chimaev pops out and get in the guard. With 90 seconds to go, Goddard stands them up. Chimaev puts out a triple jab to disrupt the advancing champion, and Du Plessis misses with a high kick. Chimaev has two low kicks score, and he backpedals when getting cracked with a right hand. Chimaev shoots deep, and Du Plessis sprawls and starts hacking at Chimaev in the temple. Chimaev keeps pushing through the hips, and Du Plessis manages to throw the challenger to his back with 30 seconds to go. Du Plessis wraps up a rear-naked choke, but he falls off the side to lose it. Chimaev clings to an arm, and Du Plessis elbows him in the top of the head. Chimaev wags his finger at him, and the one-sided fight comes to a merciful conclusion with the new coronation of a champion coming momentarily.
At long last, Khamzat Chimaev has recognized the potential many saw in him years ago. He is now the undisputed middleweight champion, and he ragdolled a man that many thought might be his match. When speaking to commentator Joe Rogan, Chimaev does not say a great deal in English or through a translator, but asks to get paid. When “Borz” has his first defense scheduled, you better you bet we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (50-44 Chimaev)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-44 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Dricus Du Plessis via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-44, 50-44)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo acknowledges the common narrative that DDP wins if he survives early, but he questions Chimaev's cardio criticism, noting his tough weight cuts at 170. He believes the skill gap is wider than people think and that Chimaev can win multiple rounds. He picks Chimaev as the attacker rather than the survivor, despite rooting for DDP.

"I am going to pick Hamzot, though. I think the skill gap is wider than most people think it is."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first-round submission. He thinks Chimaev will get takedowns easily and put du Plessis in bad spots early. He worries about Chimaev's cardio if the fight goes to the third round, as du Plessis has shown good cardio and could take over late. He notes Chimaev has never seen a fourth or fifth round. He sees it as Chimaev early or du Plessis late, but leans Chimaev by early submission.

Chimaev by submission, round 1
"Give me Hamzad to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by first round submission in this one."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Connor picks Chimaev, arguing that du Plessis has never faced a wrestler of Chimaev's caliber and that his takedown defense is poor, as shown in the Derek Brunson fight where he was taken down in 10 seconds. He believes Chimaev is the best one-round fighter in MMA history and will likely finish du Plessis early. However, he acknowledges that if Chimaev doesn't get the finish, du Plessis's resilience and ability to weather storms could make it competitive.

Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237; du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202
"I think Khamzat Chimaev is going to be champion by the end of the week. And I'm pretty certain of that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The host believes Chimaev's wrestling, top control, and submission game will be too much for du Plessis. He predicts Chimaev will secure a submission within two rounds, becoming the new middleweight champion. The host emphasizes Chimaev's grappling advantage as the key factor.

submission within two rounds
"I think he's going to struggle with the wrestling top control and submission game of Chamay, which should lead to Hamzat earning that gold and finding the submission within two rounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to survive the early grappling onslaught from Khamzat Chimaev and take over as the fight progresses. He believes du Plessis's Brazilian jiu-jitsu background and experience against high-level grapplers will allow him to avoid being finished in round one. As Chimaev's cardio fades, du Plessis will turn the fight into a striking match and eventually finish him with a TKO in round three or four. The Guru compares this to Chimaev's fights with Gilbert Burns and Kamaru Usman, where he struggled once the fight went past the first round.

TKO round 3 or 4; Dricus du Plessis wins by TKO up against the cage; less than 21.5 round one significant strikes for du Plessis (from PrizePicks segment)
"I think Drikus is going to survive round one and finish him. Driers has Brazilian jiu-jitsu game. I think he has the right mindset for this."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, citing his resilience, ability to manage anxiety and energy, and his proven five-round experience. He notes that du Plessis is a strong scrambler who doesn't get submitted easily and can find second winds. Zane is not confident, acknowledging that Chimaev will likely take du Plessis down early and may finish him, but he has faith in du Plessis's ability to survive and take over if Chimaev fades.

du Plessis opened at +170, currently +202; Chimaev opened at -200, currently -237
"I'm still going to pick Dricus. I just think it's fun to pick Dricus. I want Dricus to win."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 312: du Plessis vs. Strickland 2 · Feb 09, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 147 of 314 46% 149 of 316 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 128 of 263 48% 128 of 263 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 20 of 45 44% 20 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 16 of 49 32% 16 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 60 51% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 39 of 79 49% 39 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Sean Strickland 0 24 of 47 51% 24 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 21 of 66 31% 23 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 28 of 51 54% 28 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 36 of 64 56% 36 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 31 of 62 50% 31 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 147 of 314 46% 50 of 193 45 of 59 52 of 62 147 of 314 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 128 of 263 48% 90 of 212 29 of 41 9 of 10 128 of 263 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 20 of 45 44% 5 of 25 6 of 10 9 of 10 20 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 16 of 49 32% 10 of 41 5 of 7 1 of 1 16 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 60 51% 7 of 31 7 of 10 17 of 19 31 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 54 53% 15 of 35 8 of 13 6 of 6 29 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 39 of 79 49% 11 of 46 14 of 15 14 of 18 39 of 79 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 24 of 47 51% 18 of 39 5 of 6 1 of 2 24 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 21 of 66 31% 13 of 54 5 of 7 3 of 5 21 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 28 of 51 54% 23 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0 28 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Dricus du Plessis 36 of 64 56% 14 of 37 13 of 17 9 of 10 36 of 64 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 31 of 62 50% 24 of 54 6 of 7 1 of 1 31 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady scored the first fight 3-2 for du Plessis and expects a similar competitive fight. He notes that Strickland fights the same way every time, with jabs and teeps, while du Plessis has the power and wrestling advantage. He thinks du Plessis will land the bigger shots and has all the finish upside. However, he believes the odds at -205 are too wide and expects a close decision. He picks du Plessis by decision.

I think these odds are wide I like I think the opener was a lot more accurate
"gimme drus here I think is going to win a close and competitive decision in this one once more and and uh yeah drus SP decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Dricus is the one likely to adjust. He notes that Strickland's internal struggles prevent him from changing his game. Connor also mentions that Dricus will not back down and will keep coming forward, which is key. He sees Strickland's win condition as a lucky punch or eye swelling, but considers it unlikely.

Same odds as Zane. Connor says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I just trust Dricus to make an adaptation and I trust Sean Strickland to never ever do that."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Feb 4, 2025 (5 days before fight)

Daniel Levi discusses the rematch between Dricus du Plessis and Sean Strickland, noting that the first fight was a five-round split decision. He cites historical examples where rematches of close five-round fights often end sooner, such as Machida vs Shogun and Cerrone vs Henderson. However, he does not explicitly pick a winner, instead asking the audience who they have. He mentions that du Plessis has made opponents cry with his trash talk but does not commit to a prediction.

"So who youall got in the rematch between dricus dupy and Sean Strickland going down this weekend at UFC 312"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Strickland's pace and pressure will allow him to pick apart du Plessis and get ahead on the scorecards. His striking defense and durability are good enough to deal with du Plessis's power. Strickland may incorporate some grappling to stay safe, but ultimately wins in deep water by decision.

decision
"I think if Strickland can pick it up a little bit more he should be able to utilize his pace and his pressure as effectively as we've seen him do in the past and that will allow him to really …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane believes Dricus du Plessis will win because he is more likely to adjust and has shown he can land bigger shots. He notes that Sean Strickland rarely adapts and his style is predictable. Zane also points out that Strickland's best chance is a knockout or doctor stoppage, but that is unlikely. He trusts Dricus to counter the jab and make Strickland hesitant.

Dricus du Plessis opened at -190, currently -196; Strickland opened at +167, currently +172. Zane says he wouldn't bet on Strickland.
"I think you basically have to pick Dricus."
Submission (face crank) R4 3:38 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 90 of 197 45% 99 of 206 4 of 9 44% 2 0 3:39
Israel Adesanya 0 97 of 203 47% 105 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 16 of 37 43% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 13 of 25 52% 22 of 34 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:28
Israel Adesanya 0 17 of 30 56% 25 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:02
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 75 41% 31 of 75 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Israel Adesanya 0 40 of 83 48% 40 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 24 of 45 53% 24 of 45 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:11
Israel Adesanya 0 24 of 53 45% 24 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 90 of 197 45% 61 of 155 7 of 13 22 of 29 80 of 184 8 of 11 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 97 of 203 47% 63 of 165 26 of 29 8 of 9 92 of 198 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 52 42% 8 of 30 2 of 5 12 of 17 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 16 of 37 43% 10 of 31 4 of 4 2 of 2 16 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 13 of 25 52% 10 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 14 6 of 9 2 of 2
Israel Adesanya 17 of 30 56% 12 of 25 2 of 2 3 of 3 13 of 26 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 75 41% 22 of 63 1 of 3 8 of 9 31 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 40 of 83 48% 25 of 66 12 of 14 3 of 3 40 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 24 of 45 53% 21 of 41 2 of 3 1 of 1 22 of 43 2 of 2 0 of 0
Israel Adesanya 24 of 53 45% 16 of 43 8 of 9 0 of 1 23 of 52 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks Dricus du Plessis despite acknowledging Israel Adesanya is the more technical fighter. He believes du Plessis's insane pressure, constant forward movement, and takedown attempts will be too much for the 35-year-old Adesanya, who took a year off. He has two half-unit bets on du Plessis at +105 and +120, totaling one unit, and is confident the pressure will overwhelm Adesanya.

Two half-unit bets at +105 and +120; total 1 unit
"I think all of that is going to be too much for Izzy he's 35 years old he took a year off... drus is going to be the pick and I've got two bets on draz."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Big Brady picks Israel Adesanya to win by decision, but is hesitant. He struggled with this pick, initially leaning du Plessis but then moving to Adesanya. He rewatched the du Plessis vs Strickland fight and didn't think du Plessis won convincingly. He notes that if du Plessis fights at range against Adesanya, Adesanya will make it look easy, but if du Plessis pressures recklessly, he could knock Adesanya out. He is concerned about Adesanya's last performance against Strickland, which was his worst career fight, but believes a motivated Adesanya can win. He says he will probably stay away from betting this fight.

decision
"I'm going to pick osani to win this fight and Win It by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody believes du Plessis has the wrestling advantage to take Adesanya down repeatedly, as Adesanya's takedown defense has always been suspect. He notes du Plessis is younger, has better cardio, and is improving, while Adesanya is 35 and coming off a year layoff. He also points to du Plessis' wins over Robert Whittaker and Sean Strickland as evidence he can handle top competition.

"I'm going to back him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to retain the belt, citing stylistic advantages in closing distance and making the fight dirty. He notes that du Plessis has power, wrestling threats, and a proven ability to push pace, while Adesanya may be declining due to age and recent losses. Vreeland also mentions betting on du Plessis at plus 110 odds.

"I took D's dupy plus 110 listen I know it's tough to bet against a guy like IAT asna but when we come down to the Stylistics closing the distance getting right in his face fighting not at kicking range …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Vreeland picks Adesanya, calling him 'good' and noting he occasionally gets caught but won't happen here against a smaller fighter. He believes Adesanya will play it safe and get his belt back, especially with the home crowd against him.

"give me isosa isos is good he occasionally gets caught and knocked out I don't think that's gonna happen here with a smaller fighter in tras D pleas c"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

Fox picks Adesanya, arguing du Plessis is good but cannot close the distance against a motivated Adesanya. He compares to Pereira: you need elite striking or wrestling to beat Adesanya. He dismisses the Strickland loss as an unmotivated Adesanya, and believes with the trilogy fight with Pereira dangling, Adesanya will be fully motivated and put on a clinic. He thinks du Plessis' pressure will be countered viciously.

Israel Adesanya by decision (+240) - Fox's prop pick
"I think you see the ated version of them back and I think you see an absolute clinic on the feet so yeah isra desna"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Israel Adesanya

The host picks Adesanya, citing his technical striking, traps, and game planning. He expects a revitalized Adesanya after rest, and believes he will counter du Plessis effectively. He notes du Plessis' power and forward pressure but thinks Adesanya's pop and volume will be too much. He predicts a knockout win for Adesanya.

Adesanya by knockout
"I think we're going to see a very revitalized version of aanna this weekend and I think that's ultimately going to lead to him getting his hand raised again"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul highlights Adesanya's history of lackluster performances under pressure, such as against Sean Strickland and Yoel Romero, and questions his urgency. He emphasizes du Plessis' forward pressure, durability, and wrestling ability, noting he took down Strickland six times. Paul also mentions du Plessis' youth and the fact that Adesanya is 35 and coming off a retirement, making du Plessis the smart side.

"sign me up for draas"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Israel Adesanya. He argues that du Plessis is bigger than Adesanya's previous opponents, with better footwork and angles, and has multiple offensive options including takedowns, body kicks, and ground and pound. He criticizes Adesanya's recent performances, noting close fights with Sean Strickland and a loss to Alex Pereira. He believes du Plessis will take Adesanya down and control him, possibly finishing via ground and pound. He also mentions Adesanya's age (35) and that du Plessis is in his prime and fighting on his own terms.

TKO late round two via ground and pound
"I'm going with drias dupi over israela... he's got way more options he's got the power"
Decision (split) (47–48, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis · Jan 20, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 173 of 408 42% 183 of 419 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 137 of 354 38% 140 of 358 6 of 11 54% 0 0 2:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 34 of 75 45% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 18 of 51 35% 19 of 52 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:28
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 62 35% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 26 of 60 43% 26 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 87 35% 31 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 84 34% 29 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Dricus du Plessis 0 33 of 85 38% 34 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 29 of 73 39% 31 of 75 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:18
5 Dricus du Plessis 0 53 of 99 53% 53 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Strickland 0 35 of 86 40% 35 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 173 of 408 42% 157 of 387 10 of 15 6 of 6 173 of 408 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 137 of 354 38% 81 of 283 32 of 37 24 of 34 134 of 348 3 of 5 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 34 of 75 45% 28 of 67 2 of 4 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 18 of 51 35% 8 of 38 3 of 3 7 of 10 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 62 35% 20 of 59 1 of 2 1 of 1 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 26 of 60 43% 11 of 42 9 of 9 6 of 9 25 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Dricus du Plessis 31 of 87 35% 29 of 84 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 84 34% 13 of 64 10 of 12 6 of 8 28 of 83 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Dricus du Plessis 33 of 85 38% 32 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0 33 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 29 of 73 39% 22 of 62 4 of 6 3 of 5 28 of 69 1 of 3 0 of 1
5 Dricus du Plessis 53 of 99 53% 48 of 93 4 of 5 1 of 1 53 of 99 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Strickland 35 of 86 40% 27 of 77 6 of 7 2 of 2 35 of 86 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Middleweight Title Fight: Dricus Du Plessis vs. Sean Strickland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Du Plessis (-198), Strickland (+164)

Round 1
The UFC is running a number of middleweight headliners before and after this show, clearly focusing on the top of the division and trying to establish contenders. Instead of a fresh face for Du Plessis (22-2, 8-0 UFC), however, the organization is rebooking the fight where “DDP” claimed the throne. Former beltholder Strickland (29-6, 16-6 UFC) gets another crack at the belt, and at least he won a fight beforehand. Making things official for this 185-pound title tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, issuing his final instructions and getting the combatants to touch ‘em up. It’s on with the show. Strickland keeps his guard up and paws out jabs almost immediately. Strickland stays busy behind his lead left hand, and he blocks a high kick and lets Du Plessis kick him in the sternum. Du Plessis chips at the front leg with kicks, hand-fighting the jabs and wrapping a kick up around the guard. Strickland wears it well and checks a calf kick so he can get in with a jab and a follow-up two. Du Plessis sells out with a hard calf kick that gets checked, so he quickly slaps the other side. Strickland’s jabs are getting through the guard, and Du Plessis answers with a few of his own jabs. Du Plessis goes after another kick, and when it is blocked, he spins and has his heel glance off the challenger’s side. Strickland does not vary his tactic of sticking directly behind his jab, no matter the oncoming fire like a speedy head kick. Strickland stays cool as a cucumber with a front kick of two, scooting out of the way Du Plessis loads up. Strickland jabs the body and is backed off with a spinning back kick that does push him away, and he uses his head movement to avoid the worst of a looping left. Du Plessis his toes slap Strickland on the cheek, with Strickland moving just enough just in time. A Strickland jab flusters “DDP,” who surges into action with power punches and a spin. Du Plessis parries a jab and throws back a left, and he wraps a right around the guard and a head kick inches away from where he was reaching. Du Plessis doubles up on a body kick and scores a right hand, and they both land body shots. Du Plessis rushes forward, gets parried, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 2
The middleweights clap hands to get going, and game plans do not shift out of the gate. A lot of pump-faking and feints lead to single strikes from both sides, and Du Plessis tries to string a few kicks together on either side. Strickland pushes a front kick through the guard, and they both get off low kicks. A body kick from Du Plessis slips under the guard, and he slips and has a left hand glance off the chin. Strickland turns to block another body kick, but the varied attack is hard to predict. Strickland lands a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done as Du Plessis pays him back. Du Plessis springs forward with a left, and he comes up short on a high kick but not on the leg kick. They both land punches at the same time, with the South African’s left busting open Strickland’s nose. Strickland flashes his jab and follows up with a few additional strikes, getting Du Plessis’ attention but not for long as Du Plessis remains in his face striking. The jabs of Strickland tear open a cut on the bridge of the champ’s nose, and he leans back just barely in time to not get clocked with a high kick and a left hand. Strickland’s parrying guard allows him to sway and move and block, but Du Plessis’s reaching attacks are long enough to land at the end of them. Du Plessis spins with a back fist, gets blocked and spins the other direction with a kick. Strickland stands firm, but has to defend himself as Du Plessis bears down on him. Strickland checks a kick and pecks with his jab, while Du Plessis pops in and out and scores a head kick. Du Plessis lets fly a body kick as he leans back and evades the straight punches aimed at him, contorting his body in a way to protect himself. The round ends with Du Plessis trying to reach from afar, only to get met with jabs to the body.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 3
The fighters motion to the crowd to get them into it, and they bump fists when the round kicks off. Du Plessis, appropriately, kicks. Lobbing strikes from both sides, he still cannot back Strickland off even if he lands cleanly enough to not absorb counters. Strickland uses a standing knee shield to block some kicks, and this lets “DDP” slug him in the face with a short but dangerous combination. Strickland’s chin holds stern, and he remains right in the face of the champ, where he scores a right to the body and a left to the head. Du Plessis lunges back at him with two looping hooks, and two more come along with a leg kick. Du Plessis drills the body with a kick, and a side kick bounces off the cup as Strickland signals he is not compromised from the foul. Du Plessis wraps a kick under the elbow and they continue striking, this time with an accidental foul on the side of Strickland with a reaching arm that pokes “DDP” in the eye. Du Plessis waves it off and keeps swinging with bad intentions, and he clips the challenger with a spinning back fist at the top of the melon. Du Plessis kicks with either leg and stutter-steps to come in with a left, but it is his body kick that lands cleanly more than once. Du Plessis shoves Strickland away, taking a jab off the chest so he can hurl a left hand. Strickland splits the guard with a jab and follows with two solid punches, and Du Plessis walks him down and bashes him upside the head with a spinning elbow. The two go wild for a moment with looping punches, and Strickland appears to finally get the attention of the champion. Strickland paws out his front foot, and Du Plessis hammers the body with a right hand. Strickland wraps two right hands up top, and Du Plessis pays him back with a left. When Strickland finds success on the feet, Du Plessis shoots in for a takedown and puts Strickland on his seat. Strickland climbs to his feet and connect with a right hand before the round closes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Strickland

Round 4
The two reach the championship rounds, and Strickland is urged by his corner to attack but he does not come out in the round doing anything differently. The jabs do find their home, and Strickland prods out his front kick, but Du Plessis is able to blast past his defenses to at least partially connect with big strikes. Du Plessis jams his foot to the body and rushes forward throwing hammers, and a right hand at the end of a flurry staggers the former champ and shatters his nose. Strickland retreats, blood pouring out of his beak as he backpedals to stay in the fight. Like a dog with a bone, Du Plessis races after Strickland hoping to use the marked-up face like a bullseye. Du Plessis does not headhunt entirely, still working the body as he works his way in. Strickland ties him up, and Du Plessis elbows him back. Du Plessis reaches him at the end of a left hand, and they clash with right hands. Strickland starts throwing again, only to eat a punch on the nose that makes him have to pause. Du Plessis slowly works his way forward, ducking into a shot and drawing a serious reaction out of his opponent. “Tarzan” looks at the clock that reads 1:40, and Du Plessis finds an opening with a big right hand that the challenger does not love. Strickland starts lowing up on power, and a one-two surprises Du Plessis, who spins at him with a back fist and swarms him with punches. Du Plessis stays right in front of his fellow striker, not getting too reckless to fall into a counter. A one-two from “DDP” plants on the cheek, and he drills Strickland with another as Strickland’s jaw is made of sterner stuff. Du Plessis lumbers forward with looping strikes, letting Strickland’s jabs largely patter of the guard as he targets the body. The horn sounds as Du Plessis gets off a knee to the abdomen.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 5
Between rounds, the eternally tough Strickland asks for someone to help with his nose. When no one able to help him, he does it himself, snapping his nose back into alignment and slowing some of the immediate bleeding. Strickland stays in first gear, for the most part, jabbing his way into a few punches, but Du Plessis’ diversity of striking and willingness to target anywhere is giving him a major advantage compare to the boxing-heavy challenger. Du Plessis lunges to reach the target with an elbow, and blood flows again. Strickland jabs and dodges a spin, and when Du Plessis resets, he spins the other way and knocks Strickland back a few steps with the kick. Strickland puts a one-two down the pipe, prompting Du Plessis to respond in kind. Strickland finds his home with another pair of punches, and Du Plessis belts him in the belly to make him think twice. After Du Plessis scores a few punches, Strickland gives him a single one back. A spinning wheel kick brushes past the nose, and Du Plessis nearly falls over and is pushed away, gathering his thoughts before Strickland can get his hands on him. Du Plessis swarms his way forward, blitzing the challenger and letting jabs get through so he can hit harder. A few leaping right hands further bust the nose open of Strickland, and he leans down and gets kicked in the face. Du Plessis hand-fights to block punches and throw some back in rapid succession, and even the jabs and leg kicks have an impact. Strickland’s visage turns into a crimson mass, and a head kick does not make the visuals look better. Strickland jabs the body with kicks, and he gets kicked in the side for his attempt. Du Plessis reaches, scores and leans back, not letting the long Strickland get to him. Du Plessis tries for a punctuating takedown, and he gets clipped with a right hand after stuffing it. The two wing a few reckless punches, and another 25 minutes are in the books for these middleweights. The rivalry should be in the books and now part of history, as Strickland raises the arm of who should be the rightful victor: Du Plessis. The next challenger should be right around the corner, and the UFC has options in Nassourdine Imavov or Khamzat Chimaev. When “DDP” gets his next challenge, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (50-45 Du Plessis)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis (49-46 Du Plessis)

The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Sean Strickland via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 14, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans du Plessis, believing he has more ways to win with power, wrestling, and improved cardio after nose surgery. He admits to underestimating both fighters in the past. He is unsure about betting and will monitor the line movement. He notes Strickland's incredible cardio and takedown defense but thinks du Plessis's explosiveness and variety give him the edge.

Will monitor line movement; may bet on du Plessis
"I am going to lean drus here I think if we're looking at the two of these Fighters we're looking at their skill sets and their body of work"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks du Plessis, expecting a chaotic fight. He notes du Plessis has power and thrives in chaos, while Strickland lacks power and often goes to decision. He believes du Plessis will land a big shot early and finish Strickland in the first or second round, similar to his win over Whittaker. He worries about du Plessis's cardio in later rounds but thinks it won't matter.

first or second round knockout
"I'm going drus by first or second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody sees this as a 50-50 fight but leans Strickland due to his proven cardio, takedown defense, and ability to fight down the stretch. He notes du Plessis has a history of gassing in later rounds and getting finished, while Strickland conserves energy well and has a high output. Cody also mentions a live betting opportunity on Strickland if du Plessis starts strong.

Strickland late (round 4 or 5) at +1500 and +2100 respectively
"I think Sean Strickland wins... it's a good fight that Sean Strickland wins down the stretch."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Vreeland picks du Plessis, noting his submission grappling background and the possibility of winning a decision like Jared Cannonier did against Strickland. He mentions that Strickland landed more punches but Cannonier landed the memorable ones. Vreeland also notes that Strickland's grappling is not great, and du Plessis could use his grappling if needed. He sees it as a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by finish.

"I'm picking DDP too and I will say you know for a lot of people they're like oh I still worried about the cardio because he gased out in like one fight early in his UFC span and I don't …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Vreeland picks Dricus du Plessis to win the middleweight title. He believes Strickland's jab-and-volume game plan won't be enough against du Plessis's awkward but violent style and power. He notes du Plessis holds the record for most significant strikes in middleweight history and has proven he can go the distance. Vreeland also mentions he bet two units on du Plessis at +125, showing strong conviction.

"I took him in the spot at plus 125 I put two units on it um I think it should be a pick them"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Fox picks du Plessis, calling it a two-outcome fight: Strickland by decision or du Plessis by knockout. He notes that du Plessis decimated Robert Whittaker and has good grappling. Fox also mentions that Strickland's emotional state (being mad) is a reason not to pick him. He sees du Plessis winning by knockout or possibly decision.

"I'm gonna take a guy who we is he good Gumby is DDP good yet I know he beat Robert Whitaker but is he good Crush crushed Robert Whitaker I'm taking he decimated Robert Whitaker this is I think a …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2025 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to retain his title, citing du Plessis's diverse skill set (spinning kicks, elbows, takedowns, submissions) compared to Strickland's limited pocket boxing. He notes du Plessis's durability and power advantage, the championship mentality, and improved cardio from the first fight. He predicts a clearer win than the split decision last time, possibly by KO or decision.

"my prediction is going to be dricker dupy retains his title and he's going to win the fight via decision or or by KO"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

I'm taking Strickland to win. He has the cardio and output advantage, and he can make du Plessis uncomfortable. If du Plessis doesn't finish him in the first two rounds, his cardio might fade and Strickland can take over. Strickland's awkward pressure style is hard to deal with. I think Strickland weathers the storm, walks him down, batters him, and possibly finishes in the fourth or fifth round. The -145 line is not bad for a fighter with those advantages.

round 4-5 TKO, decision victory
"give me Sean Strickland R for round five TKO and still"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Strickland but emphasizing the prop side. He worries about du Plessis's early power and wrestling but believes Strickland's pace and volume will overwhelm du Plessis in later rounds. He compares it to the Abus Magomedov fight where Strickland survived an early onslaught and took over.

du Plessis round 1 KO at +1000, du Plessis KO at +300, Strickland round 4 at +1500, Strickland round 5 at +2100
"Strickland will be the official pick but I think the prop side is how I'm going to attack this fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis, comparing him to Jared Cannonier but with more durability and forward pressure. He notes Strickland's struggles against grapplers and fighters who push forward. He highlights du Plessis's improved cardio, low kicks, and multi-shot combos. He predicts a TKO in round two, possibly after dropping Strickland.

TKO, round 2
"drias dupi in my opinion is going to win this fight by TKO or submission I see this happening at some point in the second round or maybe late in the first"
TKO (punches) R2 2:23 · UFC 290: Volkanovski vs. Rodriguez · Jul 08, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 31 of 70 44% 32 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 1 62 of 104 59% 74 of 118 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 22 of 44 50% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Robert Whittaker 0 29 of 54 53% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Robert Whittaker 1 33 of 50 66% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 31 of 70 44% 23 of 59 2 of 4 6 of 7 29 of 68 2 of 2 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 62 of 104 59% 38 of 77 11 of 13 13 of 14 41 of 77 8 of 10 13 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 22 of 44 50% 16 of 35 2 of 4 4 of 5 21 of 43 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 29 of 54 53% 13 of 36 9 of 10 7 of 8 21 of 44 0 of 0 8 of 10
2 Dricus du Plessis 9 of 26 34% 7 of 24 0 of 0 2 of 2 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Robert Whittaker 33 of 50 66% 25 of 41 2 of 3 6 of 6 20 of 33 8 of 10 5 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dricus Du Plessis vs. Robert Whittaker
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Whittaker (-400), du Plessis (+300)

Round 1
Depending on the outcome of this fight, a title fight at 185 pounds may be the reward. Former champ Whittaker (24-6, 15-4 UFC) will try to hold the line and earn another crack at Israel Adesanya, while the surging Du Plessis (19-2, 5-0 UFC) is hoping to shock the masses. The two have up to 15 minutes to figure things out, and they will do so under the watchful eye of referee Marc Goddard. The gloves are touched, and Whittaker moves on the outside and tosses up a head kick. Du Plessis responds with a low kick, and he backpedals when Whittaker comes at him with a one-two. Du Plessis reaches with a kick to the midsection, and he walks into a leg kick and misses the mark on a counter. Whittaker chops at his lead leg and comes over the top with a right hand, and he splits the guard with a left. The former champ leans back from a head kick, and he evades a looping left hook that follows. Whittaker doubles up on the jab and intercepts a kick to crack the South African with a left hand. The jab from Whittaker disrupts the oncoming Du Plessis, and he checks a leg kick. Du Plessis has another kick checked, and he takes an awkward step back. Whittaker punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Du Plessis defends with a guillotine choke as he falls to his back. Whittaker steps to the left side to easily shake off the choke, and he looks to establish top position. Du Plessis fights his way back to his feet with the wall behind him, and he fires out a front kick that misses the mark. Whittaker reaches him with a right hand, and he gets surprised with a check right hook. Whittaker flicks out a few jabs, and he swings a left and a low kick. Du Plessis chains a few punches together to make Whittaker bounce off the cage wall, and Whittaker ricochets off of it to get his own strikes off. Du Plessis times a knee up the middle when Whittaker ducks down, and he kicks right into Whittaker’s shin. Whittaker connects with a few left hands to mark up Du Plessis’ nose, and he absorbs a flush calf kick. The two crash together, and Du Plessis grabs hold of the former champ with a head lock and throws Whittaker to the floor. Du Plessis threatens with a potential brabo choke, and he releases the grip to slash down with an elbow that rips open a cut on Whittaker’s temple. Du Plessis passes guard with 20 seconds to go, and he sets up another brabo choke with seconds to go. When that fails, Du Plessis postures up and lays into Whittaker with punches and elbows to put an exclamation point on the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Du Plessis

Round 2
The middleweights meet in the center to open up the second round with a glove touch, and Whittaker is ready to get his jab going early. When Du Plessis kicks low, Whittaker throws high with a left hand and a head kick. Whittaker snaps the head back with a jab, shutting down the offense mid-swing from Du Plessis. Whittaker blocks a pair of speedy punches, and he stomps down with a kick to the knee. The two come together and Whittaker raps his man on the chin with a right hand. Whittaker absorbs a jab and responds with two back, and he chains it into an overhand right. Du Plessis walks into a left hook, and he has one more leg kick checked. Whittaker reaches his man with a head kick, and he takes a body kick right back. Whittaker slings a left hook and a calf kick, and he leans back from the counters that buzz past his beard. Whittaker springs in with two lefts and gets away before a counter can find the target. Du Plessis reaches out with a straight right hand that frazzles the former champ, who drops down to his knees in rough shape. Du Plessis is surprised at his handiwork, and he does not capitalize immediately. When Whittaker wobbles back to his feet, Du Plessis is on him now. “Stillknocks” drills Whittaker with a long series of punches to the body and head, and it is a right to the body that puts Whittaker firmly in the danger zone. Whittaker collapses to a knee, and Du Plessis swarms him with a ferocious combination that pummels “Bobby Knuckles” and puts him away once and for good. This is an enormous upset, and a phenomenal performance for the immediate title challenger. The victory is so stunning that champ Adesanya approaches UFC President Dana White to request an in-cage challenge. The UFC strikes while the iron is hot, stating that Du Plessis will indeed challenge Adesanya for the belt in Sydney in a few months. When they come together in the cage, things do not go well, as Adesanya hurls racial epithets and tries to draw a reaction out of his prospective opponent and “African brother.” Adesanya shouts about Du Plessis’ African DNA, and commentator Joe Rogan is just along for the ride at this point. The fighters jaw at one another until the promotion decides to move on, and the two are separated. This awkward exchange does not, however, take away from the accomplishment of Du Plessis, who put an incredibly durable Whittaker away with style points.

The Official Result
Dricus Du Plessis def. Robert Whittaker R2 2:23 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Angelo is very confident in Whittaker, calling it a 'mauling'. He praises Whittaker's diverse striking, takedowns, and well-roundedness, noting his only losses since 2014 are to Adesanya. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy and lacking technique, relying on energy and explosiveness. He thinks Whittaker will out-strike, out-work, and potentially stop du Plessis. He recommends parlaying Whittaker.

Parlay recommended, possible stoppage
"I think this is a mauling I think trick is too busy is tough I think he might be a big deal soon in the division but I just think Robert Whittaker is going to get this done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 1, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Big Brady picks Robert Whittaker to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Whittaker is better everywhere: striking, wrestling, grappling, and cardio. He criticizes du Plessis for being sloppy, getting wobbled, taken down, and gassing out in fights. He believes Whittaker will finish du Plessis in the second or third round, either by ground and pound or a head kick. He acknowledges that du Plessis finds ways to win but says this is a huge step up in competition.

second round knockout
"give me Robert Whitaker to win this fight I'll say second round knockout for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Cody picks Whittaker but is worried about the -400 moneyline, so he bets the under 2.5 rounds. He thinks du Plessis will be reckless and leave himself open, leading to a finish by Whittaker. He notes Whittaker has been rocked in many fights but expects him to land a big shot. He believes du Plessis's aggression will be his downfall.

Under 2.5 rounds (-130, -132), Whittaker by KO/TKO
"I took the under two and a half rounds at minus 130 and minus 132. uh Robert Whitaker will be my pick here"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Connor picks Whittaker, emphasizing that du Plessis is 'actually quite bad at fighting' and has been carried by favorable matchups. He notes that Whittaker's jab and movement will be too much for du Plessis's clumsy pressure. Connor warns that Whittaker's tendency to chase combinations could leave him vulnerable, but overall he expects a dominant performance.

"Robert Whittaker could out wrestle him if he wanted to. He should be able to just light his ass up with jabs."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Daniel Levi picks Whittaker, describing him as a Hall of Famer with no weaknesses. He notes that du Plessis is awkward and violent but too sloppy for a technician like Whittaker. Levi dismisses the narrative that du Plessis's nose surgery will fix his gas tank issues, predicting that getting punched in the nose again will cause the same problems. He expects Whittaker to outclass du Plessis, possibly with a finish, and mentions that the only value on du Plessis is via KO prop at plus money. Levi also notes that du Plessis's wild style will leave him open to a head kick or right hand from the open stance.

KO prop on du Plessis at plus money is the only place to look for him
"I'm going Robert Whittaker display build those plans and put on a clinic against drikis."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 8, 2023 (fight day)
Dricus du Plessis

James thinks the line is wide and Dricus du Plessis deserves a bet, but he is not super confident he will win. He likes the under 2.5 rounds prop because du Plessis rarely goes to decision and has power and physicality to finish. He notes Whittaker has been dropped many times and du Plessis can finish from any position. However, if du Plessis doesn't finish early, he may gas and Whittaker's superior technique takes over.

Under 2.5 rounds; fight doesn't go to decision
"I do think that the line is wide I do think that trick is duplicity deserves deserves a bet"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Whittaker has superior cardio, striking, and speed. Du Plessis is powerful but has cardio issues and labored movement. Whittaker will use his in-and-out footwork and rear high kick to find a knockout in the second or third round. Fight doesn't go to decision is a strong prop.

fight doesn't go to decision
"fight doesn't go to decision probably my favorite spot considering it's sitting around that minus 160 range the last time I saw it but I think that we're going to see a knockout here and I think it's going to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Paul picks Whittaker on the moneyline, citing his class everywhere and ability to adjust mid-fight. He notes du Plessis is wild and may overwhelm lesser opponents but not Whittaker. He thinks Whittaker's jab and ring IQ will be key. He is unsure about a knockout prop but leans toward Whittaker by KO or decision.

Whittaker by KO/TKO, under 2.5 rounds
"I think Robert Whitaker has got a class pretty much everywhere but the thing with Drake is in terms of a knockout prop is like man he got a hard hat on him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

The MMA Guru picks Robert Whittaker to win by decision (30-27 or 30-26). He argues that Whittaker's patience and experience in five-round fights will prevent him from making the mistakes that du Plessis capitalizes on. He believes Whittaker is superior on the feet and in scrambles, and that du Plessis' wins have come from opponents overextending. He notes Whittaker's humility as a positive factor.

wins by decision 30-27 or 30-26
"I think Whitaker wins this one by decision 30 27 maybe 30 26 with a dominant third round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Robert Whittaker

Zane picks Whittaker confidently, stating that du Plessis has no area of his game that should beat Whittaker. He criticizes du Plessis's poor technique, especially his wrestling and striking, and notes that Whittaker's jab and head kicks will be too much. Zane acknowledges du Plessis's clear-headedness but believes Whittaker's superior skill and experience will prevail.

"There's nothing about his game that should beat Robert Whittaker. Nope, literally nothing."
WIN vs Derek Brunson
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 4:59 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 37 of 84 44% 43 of 90 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:30
Derek Brunson 1 71 of 115 61% 84 of 132 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 12 of 23 52% 18 of 29 1 of 1 100% 1 1 2:28
Derek Brunson 0 9 of 14 64% 16 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:55
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 25 of 61 40% 25 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Derek Brunson 1 62 of 101 61% 68 of 108 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 37 of 84 44% 27 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 30 of 74 3 of 5 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 71 of 115 61% 55 of 97 8 of 9 8 of 9 53 of 95 3 of 3 15 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 12 of 23 52% 11 of 21 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 1 4 of 5
Derek Brunson 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 6 2 of 2 4 of 6
2 Dricus du Plessis 25 of 61 40% 16 of 50 9 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 57 3 of 4 0 of 0
Derek Brunson 62 of 101 61% 49 of 86 6 of 7 7 of 8 50 of 89 1 of 1 11 of 11
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo leans towards Dricus du Plessis, despite acknowledging that Derek Brunson has a clear path to victory via wrestling. He is concerned about Brunson's age, chin, and cardio after his loss to Jared Cannonier. Angelo notes that du Plessis is dangerous and can blitz forward, and he believes Brunson may fold under pressure.

"I've had drikas as the plaque the pick I literally I told Jacob earlier I said I think I'm gonna I think I'm gonna flip this pick like thick Brunson should win this but I just can't trust the chin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his power and submission ability, and his ability to fight through fatigue. He notes Brunson's age (39), questionable chin, and talk of retirement. He predicts Brunson may have early success wrestling, but du Plessis will land a big shot and knock him out in the second round.

second round knockout
"I'm gonna take drinkas to win this fight I'm gonna say he does eventually catch Brunson on the feet I'm gonna say he knocks out Brunson in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody expects du Plessis to win inside the distance. He notes Brunson's age (39), slowing reflexes, and tendency to get caught with his chin up. He thinks du Plessis's power and durability will be too much as the fight progresses.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Drake has catches them so do places inside the distance"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Connor picks Derek Brunson, believing his superior wrestling and technical striking will allow him to control the fight. He notes that du Plessis is chaotic and willing to make catastrophic errors, which Brunson can exploit to get takedowns and dominate on the ground. However, Connor acknowledges that if Brunson slows down and du Plessis's relentless pressure takes over, Brunson could fall apart.

"I gotta pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working. But if it does if it's not then you know good on do plus e."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Jacob is confident in Dricus du Plessis, calling Brunson overrated and noting that his takedowns have come against weak wrestlers. He believes Brunson panics when hit and that du Plessis will spark him early. Jacob thinks Brunson will retire after this fight.

"duplessy is gonna dominate this dude he should not be in the UFC anymore he's gonna retire after this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Du Plessis is an athletic freak with big power and explosiveness. Brunson is 39, has durability issues, and was knocked out by Jared Cannonier. Du Plessis will land big shots as the fight goes on and knock Brunson out.

du Plessis by knockout
"I believe that Brunson does have a car or durability issue still... I have no doubt that he'll be able to land that knockout blow here to get his hand raised so look for duplex's money line or even duplexes …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, picking du Plessis inside the distance. He thinks Brunson will have early success but fade, and du Plessis will catch him. He likes the inside distance prop at -110.

Dricus du Plessis inside the distance (-110)
"I think Rick is inside the distance is the play here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis to win by guillotine choke, citing du Plessis' underrated grappling and Brunson's tendency to shoot for panic takedowns. He believes du Plessis will finish Brunson in the second round.

Guillotine finish predicted, second round finish
"I'm gonna go with dricus du plessis with his guillotine... I think he will beat Derek Branson by a second round finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Derek Brunson

Zane also picks Brunson, citing his technical advantages everywhere and the likelihood that he will get early takedowns against du Plessis's wild entries. He notes that du Plessis's wrestling is messy and he often puts himself in bad positions, which Brunson can capitalize on. Zane adds that while du Plessis has great cardio and durability, Brunson's power and top control should be enough to secure a win.

"I'm gonna pick Brunson. I got to pick this to be the but the point where that stops working."
WIN vs Darren Till
Submission (face crank) R3 2:43 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dricus du Plessis 0 35 of 70 50% 58 of 94 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 86 of 147 58% 117 of 197 6 of 6 100% 3 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dricus du Plessis 0 6 of 12 50% 9 of 15 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:23
Darren Till 0 60 of 85 70% 82 of 126 3 of 3 100% 1 0 3:56
2 Dricus du Plessis 0 18 of 33 54% 38 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 10 of 28 35% 19 of 37 2 of 2 100% 1 0 1:27
3 Dricus du Plessis 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Darren Till 0 16 of 34 47% 16 of 34 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dricus du Plessis 35 of 70 50% 26 of 57 6 of 9 3 of 4 29 of 60 1 of 1 5 of 9
Darren Till 86 of 147 58% 69 of 123 4 of 7 13 of 17 28 of 59 25 of 40 33 of 48
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dricus du Plessis 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 9
Darren Till 60 of 85 70% 54 of 77 2 of 3 4 of 5 4 of 6 25 of 38 31 of 41
2 Dricus du Plessis 18 of 33 54% 12 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 4 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Darren Till 10 of 28 35% 4 of 21 1 of 2 5 of 5 10 of 24 0 of 2 0 of 2
3 Dricus du Plessis 11 of 25 44% 9 of 20 2 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Darren Till 16 of 34 47% 11 of 25 1 of 2 4 of 7 14 of 29 0 of 0 2 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Darren Till

Angelo picks Till as an underdog, believing Till's boxing and range control will be too much for du Plessis, who rushes forward with his chin up. He notes Till's recent struggles with injuries and mental health, and a DUI, making him nervous about his moneyline bet. However, he argues that Till's losses came to elite fighters who would also beat du Plessis.

Moneyline bet placed earlier (odds not specified).
"Till's gonna be the pick here I do have a money line bet on him I've had that for a little while now I'm nervous about it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his volume, power, and submission game, while questioning Darren Till's mentality and recent form. He notes Till has been submitted multiple times and has low volume. He expects du Plessis to win by second round submission, but acknowledges Till has a puncher's chance.

du Plessis wins by second round submission
"I like Rodriguez to win this fight I like and win by finish I'll take drikas to win by I'll say second round submission win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Cody picks Darren Till as a dog, citing the stylistic matchup. He notes Till is a clean counter-striker with a nasty left hand, while du Plessis leads with his chin up and is wild. He thinks du Plessis will panic shoot takedowns, which Till can defend and counter. He acknowledges Till's low output and untrustworthiness but sees this as a good spot for him.

"I'm in the same boat as you I want to bet him he's the underdog right first dog that we like that plus money looks good but he's such an untrustworthy guy Darren till"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Connor picks du Plessis, citing his relentless pace, durability, and power. He notes Till is low output, inconsistent, and does his best work in the first round. Connor believes du Plessis will survive early trouble and overwhelm Till with constant pressure, as Till's confidence has eroded after recent losses and injuries.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I trust Rick is duplexes just to go out there and do the one thing. I trust because duplexes to show up and be like an absolutely brutal puncher, just a clubber for three rounds, no matter what."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his massive output advantage over Darren Till. He notes Till has never landed 50 strikes in a UFC fight, while du Plessis landed 113 against Brad Tavares. Levi believes du Plessis's awkward but effective striking, power, and grappling (body lock, back takes) will overwhelm Till if the fight goes past the first round. He acknowledges Till's chance to land a sniper shot but thinks du Plessis will outwork and break him. Levi agrees with the line movement from -135 to -190.

Mentions possibility of du Plessis winning by submission (back take choke).
"I got drika's duplicity to look awkward out there to look stiff to look rigid but when he is still on the chin Till's gonna be like God damn"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lock picks du Plessis to get his hand raised, and recommends buying stocks on him on PredictionStrike at $1.54, as he is half the price of Till and will see a solid bump with a win. He is not interested in du Plessis on the moneyline at -180 due to the question mark that Till brings, but sees PredictionStrike as a way to exploit value. For Till, he suggests the moneyline as a dog rather than investing on PredictionStrike at $3.00.

"I'm gonna go on the opposite side here I do think duplexes is the one that gets Sunrise but uh yeah I would likely buy some stocks here on prediction strike on duplexes and hopefully cash this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Darren Till

Paul leans towards Darren Till as a dog, noting the matchup is good for Till because du Plessis is not an elite wrestler and leaves his chin up. He thinks Till can hang back and pick him off. However, he is hesitant because Till throws low volume and is hard to trust with money. He decides slightly on Till due to the plus money.

"I'm gonna decide ever so slightly on the side of Darren till in this matchup but I don't know if I can trust him with my money Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Darren Till, citing Till's lack of recent form and physical decline. He believes du Plessis is a real athlete with power and grappling ability, and will mix in takedowns after making Till cautious with his striking. He predicts du Plessis will finish Till via mounted guillotine or ground and pound in the later rounds.

"I'm going with dracus to bless his over Darren till"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 8, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis, agreeing that Till's low output and inconsistency are major issues. He notes du Plessis is a messy but relentless fighter who will keep coming, and Till's confidence is shaken. Zane acknowledges du Plessis could get knocked out but trusts his durability and pace.

Odds: du Plessis opened -135, now -186; Till opened +115, now +154.
"I'll pick the Plessy as well, but man, someday the wheels are going to fly off that duplex in the most spectacular fashion imaginable."
Kamaru Usman - Fight History
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis by KO, believing his awkward power and size advantage will overwhelm an aging Usman. He notes Usman's wrestling may control early, but DDP's never-say-die attitude and looping shots will find a home later. He is not confident in the odds but sees DDP as the pick.

DDP by KO (+200), DDP by submission (+950), Usman by decision (+425)
"I'm going Duplexi to keep his king of Africa belt wrapped tightly around his waist."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis to knock out Kamaru Usman. He believes du Plessis's awkward striking, power, and improved takedown defense will be key against the 39-year-old Usman, who has been inactive and has bad knees. He expects du Plessis to land a big overhand or body kick and finish in the middle rounds, possibly after surviving some early grappling.

Du Plessis by KO, under 3.5 rounds (+165), du Plessis to win inside distance
"I'm going Drius Duplexi to beat Camaro Usman. Come on now."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his punching power, takedown defense, and cardio. He believes du Plessis will stop Usman's takedowns and land big overhands, potentially knocking out the aging Usman. AJ notes du Plessis's chaotic style and ability to change the fight in an instant, while Usman's best days are behind him.

du Plessis by KO +205
"I think Drius Duplexi is back in the biggest of ways this Saturday and I'm picking him to win by knockout against Kamar Usman."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ backs Du Plessis, citing his power, forward pressure, and offensive wrestling. He notes Usman's inactivity and age (39) and believes Du Plessis can hurt him late. AJ acknowledges Du Plessis's defensive wrestling flaws but thinks his toughness and motivation (Africa rivalry) will carry him.

Du Plessis by KO (rounds 3-5); Du Plessis in parlay
"Dricus Du Plessis minus 240. Yes, I'm believing in the Du Plessis dream... I think Dricus Du Plessis is live to pull this one out by KO, actually, a later stage KO between rounds three and five."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks DDP but is hesitant to bet. He notes DDP's brute strength and cardio, but acknowledges Usman's wrestling could cause problems, as seen in DDP's fight against Khamzat Chimaev where he was taken down 12 times. He thinks DDP's strength advantage will overcome any skill gap, but he's not confident enough to bet the moneyline, instead considering a round line over.

round line over
"I'm going to pick DDP here. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on a bet. So, I might just stick to a round line over."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks DDP because he believes DDP's brute force, size, and relentless pace will overwhelm Usman. He notes that DDP can shoot his own takedowns and won't wait, and if he fights like he did against Strickland, he wins clearly. He acknowledges Usman's path via wrestling but thinks DDP is too big and strong.

"I think DDP is too big, too strong, too much of a brute, too much of a bruiser."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting Usman's age (39) and knee issues. He believes du Plessis will do better work on the feet and that Usman won't be able to hold him down. He predicts a decision win, citing Usman's durability.

"I'm going Drias here. ... give me Drias by decision."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting that many are on Usman but the line is moving toward Dricus. He argues that Usman's win over Joaquin Buckley was not dominant and that Usman is nearly 40 with bad knees. He believes Dricus will stuff takedowns and get back up easily since Usman lacks submission threat, unlike Khamzat Chimaev. He is considering Dricus moneyline if the odds improve, or inside the distance/KO props.

Dricus du Plessis moneyline (if line drops), Dricus inside the distance, Dricus KO
"I think it's Dricus here. You know, Dricus, I think he's going to stuff some takedowns here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody acknowledges Kamaru Usman's stylistic advantages like a good jab and wrestling, but leans heavily on Dricus du Plessis due to age (Usman is 39), size, and Dricus's proven takedown ability against top competition. He notes Dricus is younger, has held the belt, and matches physicality, making him the play despite Usman's tempting plus money.

Dricus moneyline; over 3.5 rounds at -185 preferred over moneyline
"I think he's got a shot, but I feel like Drakus is the play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Connor picks Usman despite acknowledging the size disadvantage, because he trusts Usman's wrestling and game planning more than du Plessis's ability to improve. He notes that du Plessis's mindset of fighting out of bad positions rather than preventing them is a fundamental flaw that may not be fixable. He also points out that Usman's jab and relentless takedown ability could wear down du Plessis even if Usman gets tired. However, he admits that if du Plessis were welterweight size, he would pick Usman in a heartbeat.

Odds: Usman +195 underdog. Connor notes the line is reasonable.
"I'm going to pick Usman. All right. You know, I'm just hoping it's one of those nights. He's going to hit his takedown and then he starts to get tired and the place is like, now's my moment. And then …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis to win, citing age advantage (du Plessis entering prime vs Usman near 40) and du Plessis's year off to recover and improve his get-up game. He believes du Plessis's awkward, violent striking will eventually overwhelm Usman, predicting a late second or third round finish. He notes Usman's stiffness on the feet and declining durability, while acknowledging du Plessis's wrestling vulnerabilities but expecting him to survive takedowns.

finish prediction: late second or third round KO/TKO
"I got Drizz Dupy to come out here, get back on track and finish Camaro Usman."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a massive underdog at +190, and the host believes these odds are insane. Du Plessis's takedown defense and ground game were exposed badly against Khamzat Chimaev, where he looked like a white belt. Usman is one of the best MMA grapplers ever and has elite cardio. The host sees no reason why Usman can't replicate Chimaev's performance, giving Usman at least a 40% chance of winning, which provides a 7% margin over the bookie.

Bet Usman moneyline at +190.
"it's an absolute no-brainer to bet Kamaro Usman at odds of 2.90 plus 190 for an implied probability of 33%."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to win by knockout, citing du Plessis's power, athleticism, and durability advantages as the fight goes later. He notes that Kamaru Usman is aging and has shown a deteriorating chin, while du Plessis has more tools on the feet and better cardio for a five-round fight. However, he believes the odds are too wide and considers betting on Usman or the fight not going to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, du Plessis KO
"I'm going to pick Drius Dublacy via knockout in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman's wrestling and durability should be the difference; he can grind out du Plessis by landing takedowns and controlling the fight. du Plessis has shown vulnerability to strong grapplers like Khamzat Chimaev, and Usman is a similar style fighter with proven cardio. At plus money, Usman is a strong value pick to win a decision.

Usman by decision, du Plessis by knockout as a hedge
"I'm going to lean on Usman just being a little bit more effective and finding safety in his wrestling when he needs it. ... I'm going Kamar Usman. I'm going to go Usman by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host notes Usman's durability and believes his transition to 185 lbs will be successful due to his frame. He expects Usman to get to his wrestling game, wear down du Plessis, and win a decision.

"I believe his transition up to 185 lbs will be kind of successful. He has the frame for it as he'll only be giving up, I believe, 1 in in height, but will have the same reach as du Plessis …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, citing volume and Dricus's ability to control on the mat, unlike Usman who hasn't shown that type of control. He mentions Dricus could get a good jump early, so live betting is not a cop-out. He prefers Dricus moneyline but isn't overly excited about it.

Dricus moneyline
"Drius is the side for me and you can't I can't I can't even have the live betting cop out because like Drius very well could get a good jump on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Kamaru Usman, citing du Plessis' youth, power, and five-round experience. He believes Usman cannot keep du Plessis down like Khamzat did and that du Plessis will wear on Usman with body and low kicks. He predicts a TKO in round three.

TKO in round three, body kicks, low kicks
"I'm going with Dricus Du Plessis... I think he's going to TKO Kamaru Usman in round three with big shots up against the cage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis primarily due to size advantage, noting du Plessis is much bigger than Joaquin Buckley and that Usman's wrestling success against Buckley may not translate to holding down a larger opponent. He also questions Usman's durability at age 39 and the sustainability of his wrestling-heavy approach. However, he acknowledges Usman's wrestling credentials and the possibility that du Plessis hasn't improved his defensive wrestling since the Chimaev fight.

Odds: du Plessis -230 favorite, Usman +195 underdog. Zane notes the line seems reasonable.
"The big reason that I am picking Du Plessy here... is quite frankly, Du Plessy is just bigger. He's just a lot bigger than Joaquin Buckley."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Usman vs. Buckley · Jun 14, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 0 41 of 99 41% 137 of 243 4 of 13 30% 0 0 12:57
Joaquin Buckley 0 44 of 148 29% 51 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 11 63% 41 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:25
Joaquin Buckley 0 0 of 4 0% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 21 47% 33 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Joaquin Buckley 0 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 0 8 of 21 38% 33 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:35
Joaquin Buckley 0 10 of 35 28% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Kamaru Usman 0 6 of 20 30% 20 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:18
Joaquin Buckley 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Kamaru Usman 0 10 of 26 38% 10 of 26 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:31
Joaquin Buckley 0 20 of 58 34% 23 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 41 of 99 41% 33 of 89 8 of 10 0 of 0 22 of 69 2 of 4 17 of 26
Joaquin Buckley 44 of 148 29% 29 of 130 12 of 15 3 of 3 41 of 144 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 7 of 11 63% 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 10 of 21 47% 6 of 16 4 of 5 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 6 of 9
Joaquin Buckley 3 of 17 17% 2 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 8 of 21 38% 6 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 7
Joaquin Buckley 10 of 35 28% 5 of 29 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 6 of 20 30% 4 of 18 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 1
Joaquin Buckley 11 of 34 32% 6 of 29 4 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 10 of 26 38% 10 of 25 0 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
Joaquin Buckley 20 of 58 34% 16 of 54 4 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Joaquin Buckley
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)

Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley

Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)

The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.

Minus 270 seems more than fair
"Buckley has the speed, he has the power, he has the cardio. I think he can stay a step ahead of Camaro the entire time."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.

third round knockout
"I'll take him to win this fight by third round knockout. I think he knocks out Kamar Usman."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.

Usman opened at +207, now +222; Buckley opened at -279, now -248. Connor suggests the odds may widen.
"I think I have to take Buckley here but I'm I'm interested"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.

round 3-4 knockout
"Buckley should be able to stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and I think within three and a half to four rounds, we'll see Buckley find that big shot to put Usman away."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.

Joaquin Buckley by fourth-round TKO
"I'm going with Wim Buckley over Kamaru Usman. ... I'm going to say that Buckley finishes this fight in the third or fourth round. I'm going to say that Buckley finishes this by fourth round TKO against Usman."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joaquin Buckley

Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.

Usman opened at +207, now +222; Buckley opened at -279, now -248. Zane expects odds to widen further.
"I just think he's gonna get overwhelmed in the long run yeah and worn down"
LOSS vs Khamzat Chimaev
Decision (majority) (29–27, 29–27, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Khamzat Chimaev 0 36 of 66 54% 58 of 92 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 38 of 70 54% 107 of 143 4 of 12 33% 1 0 7:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Khamzat Chimaev 0 3 of 3 100% 5 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 16 of 17 94% 61 of 66 2 of 7 28% 1 0 4:35
2 Khamzat Chimaev 0 11 of 18 61% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 9 of 20 45% 12 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:41
3 Khamzat Chimaev 0 22 of 45 48% 41 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 33 39% 34 of 54 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Khamzat Chimaev 36 of 66 54% 27 of 52 6 of 10 3 of 4 33 of 63 1 of 1 2 of 2
Kamaru Usman 38 of 70 54% 27 of 53 3 of 9 8 of 8 22 of 53 0 of 0 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Khamzat Chimaev 3 of 3 100% 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 16 of 17 94% 15 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 16
2 Khamzat Chimaev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 11 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 20 45% 3 of 10 2 of 6 4 of 4 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Khamzat Chimaev 22 of 45 48% 20 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0 21 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Kamaru Usman 13 of 33 39% 9 of 27 0 of 2 4 of 4 12 of 32 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kamaru Usman vs. Khamzat Chimaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Chimaev (-285), Usman (+230)

Round 1
Unexpectedly preserving this fight, former welterweight kingpin Usman (20-3, 15-2 UFC) will be stepping up to 185 pounds for the first time in his career in the highly anticipated co-headliner. With just 12 days to prepare, he will collide with Chimaev (12-0, 6-0 UFC), who has been out of the Octagon for over a year while at middleweight for the first time since 2020. Many questions may be answered about both men when the dust settles, and referee Jason Herzog will take the helm for the second-to-last bout of the day. Chimaev has a wild look in his eye, and even though he offers a clap of hands, Usman is having none of it. The two look for their ranges, and Chimaev races forward and looks to take the former champ down. Usman defends it by dropping to a knee, and he springs back up. Chimaev grabs him from behind and looks for a mat return, while imposing his body weight on Usman. Chimaev presses Usman down and gets both hooks in, and he starts hammering Chimaev with hammerfists. Herzog asks Usman to work, and Usman sits up but still has “Borz” on his back. Chimaev fishes for a choke and mixes in punches, and he grabs the cage a few times to maintain position. Usman stays on his hands and knees, not allowing himself to get flattened out but completely nullified from an offensive perspective. Usman looks to shimmy Chimaev off his back, although this does not work. Chimaev looks for a potential choke and busts Usman in the face with a few punches and an elbow. Usman stands up, and Chimaev completes the body triangle and starts wrapping up a rear-naked choke. Usman fights the hands to defend against the choke, and he slams Chimaev right on his head to stop the submission. Chimaev flattens Usman out momentarily, but Usman sits up and leans himself against the fencing. Chimaev wraps his arms around Usman’s head, but the choke is not there. Chimaev works with strikes from around the sides of the head, and he drags Usman to his seat when Usman looks to recover. “Borz” sits up to land a few strikes, and the dominant round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 2
The second round begins, and both men are tentative to exchange in the early going. No strikes land for the first 45 seconds, when Usman jabs the body and kicks the calf. Chimaev changes stances after the kick, and he flicks out a jab. Usman fakes for a takedown, and Chimaev partially bites but does not sell out to defend an attempt that does not come. Usman puts the ball of his foot on Chimaev’s midsection, and he blocks a high body kick that soars back his way. Usman scores another front kick, and he gets pushed back when Chimaev kicks at his knee. The crowd grows restless at the inactivity from the two middleweights, and Usman goes down a little harder for a faked takedown. Usman lands a straight right hand and pump-fakes for another takedown, and he blocks a head kick. Chimaev gets off a leg kick, and he is jabbed to the body. Usman misses on a big right hand, and he leans back as Chimaev swats at him. Another head kick is guarded from the former champ, who looks for a level change and stings Chimaev with a one-two and follows with a calf kick. Usman reaches out with a left hand, and Chimaev shoots in deep for a double that puts Usman on his back with relative ease. Usman defends by tying up the arms and neck, stopping Chimaev from advancing or doing anything. Chimaev pops his head out in the last seconds, lands one punch, and the horn tweets.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev

Round 3
The last round opens up, and Chimaev dives face-first for a takedown that Usman comfortably stops and scoots away. Usman picks and pokes with jabs and leg kicks, and he reaches out with a right that brushes off the beard. Usman leans down and grabs Chimaev’s leg, but he lets it go to keep Chimaev thinking about the wrestling. Chimaev lands a body kick and gets knocked back with two fists, and this leads to “Borz” racing forward with a takedown. Chimaev stands up, and Usman rifles out several jabs to the head and body. Chimaev gets stung in an exchange, and Usman tags him with more jabs and shoots for his own takedown. Chimaev appears fatigued, with his winging strikes labored, and Usman can reach him when he tries. Chimaev drops down for an ankle, and he successfully scoops Usman up and sets him down courtesy of a single. Chimaev moves into half guard, and he grinds the former champion down. Usman looks to buck and prevent Chimaev from advancing, but time is not on his side. Chimaev does little more than control, but he is heavy and keeps Usman flat until Usman furiously escapes. With 20 seconds to go, Usman is on his feet, and he misses with a one-two. Usman lands a few punches, ducks the counters, and the two let their hands go right to the bitter end. Scorecards may be all over the place, regarding the potential score of the first round and the value of striking against grappling in this round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman (29-28 Usman)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (29-28 Chimaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Chimaev (30-27 Chimaev)

The Official Result
Khamzat Chimaev def. Kamaru Usman via Majority Decision (29-27, 29-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Angelo picks Khamzat Chimaev, citing the circumstances: short notice for Usman, moving up in weight, travel, and a three-round fight. He thinks Usman's cardio won't benefit him and Chimaev's wrestling will be too much. He is excited to see Chimaev's takedown defense tested but believes the factors favor Chimaev.

"I do think shemaya wins this fight I just think Usman at 36 up in weight as I mentioned the Trav there's just too many things working against him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Big Brady picks Khamzat Chimaev to win by first round TKO. He questions Kamaru Usman's motivation and decline, noting his age (36), injuries, and poor performance in the second Leon Edwards fight. Usman is taking the fight on short notice and moving up in weight. Brady believes Chimaev will take Usman down and finish him, as Usman has rarely been on his back and looked bad when he was.

first round TKO
"I like Jamay here I like him to style onar Usman and finish him in the first round by uh could be Tiko or sub pick your poison I'll say first round TKO for hamat chamay"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman as a dog, arguing that Chimaev has not proven himself against top competition. He points out that Chimaev struggled with Gilbert Burns, who is a former lightweight, and that Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and striking. Cody believes Usman's takedown defense will neutralize Chimaev's wrestling, and that Usman's jab and experience will carry him to victory. He also notes that Chimaev's lifestyle and lack of loyalty may affect his focus.

"I'm going to take Kamaru Usman first of all no reach Advantage going towards Khamzat Chimaev it's a 76 inch versus 75 in so slight one inch towards uh the Nigerian Nightmare Kamaru"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Daniel picks Khamzat Chimaev to defeat Kamaru Usman, arguing that Chimaev is on the rise while Usman is on the decline after his title reign. He believes Chimaev's athleticism, strength, and power are superior, and that the Burns fight humbled him and made him more mature. He notes Usman's cardio and durability but questions his knees and motivation, suggesting Usman is cashing out. Daniel expects Chimaev to show he is the next generation and win, possibly by finishing Usman early or outworking him.

Chimaev minus 300, Usman plus 260; mentions possibility of early finish or Usman taking over later
"I truly do believe jamayah will rise to the occasion and just show that you know he's got more left in the tank... I'm going to go with the undefeated Hamza Chimay to defeat one of the greatest welterweights of …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)

James did not make a pick for this fight. He discussed the fight post-fact, noting that Chimaev dominated round one with a 10-8 but gassed out, and that Usman won rounds two and three on some scorecards. He expressed that Chimaev is beatable if he doesn't finish early, but did not state a pre-fight pick.

"I didn't really see that much from his striking that looked like he had a broken hand... it was a good performance with Chimaev but yes if you take him out of round one he is beatable."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with high-level cardio, great wrestling, and improving striking. Despite short notice, he has been active and can stop Chimaev's takedowns, push the pace, and use forward pressure. Chimaev has question marks about cardio and activity. Expects Usman to win by decision, possibly with a third-round sprinkle.

Usman by decision, possible third round sprinkle
"I'm going to be the contrarian here I'm going to be the guy that says that Kamar Usman can get back to his winning ways even on short notice against the guy shimay"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

Paul picks Chimaev, noting that Chimaev has been preparing for a big Paulo Costa and has had time to put on size for middleweight, while Usman is coming on short notice and hasn't added muscle. He believes Chimaev can use his wrestling and reach advantage, and questions Usman's durability after recent KO losses. Paul thinks Chimaev cruises here.

"I think Hamzat absolutely cruises here he can use the wrestling if he wants to but he's going to have reach advantages and there is the bit of a question of is Kamaru Usman's durability in question at this point …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Khamzat Chimaev

The MMA Guru picks Khamzat Chimaev by first-round TKO. He argues that Usman is used to a physicality advantage and has bad knees, and that Chimaev will walk him down and land a big power shot. He notes that Colby Covington was rocking Usman and that Chimaev is more dangerous on the feet. He also points out that Usman has no power off his back foot and no slickness, while Chimaev has close reach and will push him back.

Chimaev wins in round 1 by TKO
"I'm going to go with hamach chv by KO in the first round"
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
Decision (majority) (48–46, 48–46, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 120 of 161 74% 123 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 87 of 205 42% 113 of 232 4 of 15 26% 0 0 5:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 20 of 26 76% 20 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 12 of 42 28% 13 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:19
2 Leon Edwards 0 23 of 26 88% 23 of 26 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 24 of 50 48% 32 of 58 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
3 Leon Edwards 0 24 of 32 75% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 17 of 32 53% 22 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:06
4 Leon Edwards 0 25 of 41 60% 26 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 37 37% 15 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:51
5 Leon Edwards 0 28 of 36 77% 29 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kamaru Usman 0 20 of 44 45% 31 of 56 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 120 of 161 74% 34 of 69 36 of 39 50 of 53 111 of 150 9 of 11 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 87 of 205 42% 57 of 163 24 of 34 6 of 8 65 of 177 21 of 27 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 20 of 26 76% 5 of 11 6 of 6 9 of 9 20 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 12 of 42 28% 5 of 32 6 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Leon Edwards 23 of 26 88% 9 of 11 6 of 6 8 of 9 22 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 24 of 50 48% 19 of 42 4 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 34 11 of 15 1 of 1
3 Leon Edwards 24 of 32 75% 2 of 9 8 of 8 14 of 15 24 of 31 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 17 of 32 53% 9 of 21 4 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 25 of 41 60% 9 of 22 4 of 6 12 of 13 25 of 40 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 14 of 37 37% 7 of 28 7 of 8 0 of 1 14 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 28 of 36 77% 9 of 16 12 of 13 7 of 7 20 of 28 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 20 of 44 45% 17 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0 13 of 36 7 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Usman because he dominated the vast majority of the previous fight and has not lost since 2013. He thinks the first round was a fluke and Usman will wrestle and control the fight. He is not betting because of the knockout loss but believes Usman wins.

"I think Kamara Usman wins this fight minus 250 seems like a fair price for a guy that hasn't lost since 2013."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman but with hesitation, noting he was clearly winning the second fight before the head kick. He lists concerns: Usman's age (35), injuries, travel to London, and the knockout loss. He thinks Edwards' path is a finish, while Usman can win rounds via wrestling and pressure. He predicts a decision win but will not bet this fight due to a bad feeling.

will not bet this fight
"I gotta go Usman by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman based on the belief that Usman was the better fighter in the first two fights and can make corrections after the knockout loss. He compares it to GSP after the Serra loss and Cain after the JDS loss, arguing that great champions bounce back. He notes Edwards is dangerous but thinks Usman will wrestle heavily and win by decision, as he doesn't see a finish. He acknowledges the moneyline is unappealing and prefers Usman by decision prop.

Usman by decision
"I think you got to go with Kamara Usman on the basis of... it seems like Kamara Usman was the better fighter... I just believe that he's one of those great Champions that should be able to make the corrections …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Kamaru Usman

Connor believes Usman's pressure is the key to winning. He notes that Edwards is pathologically pressureable and retreats in straight lines, putting himself against the cage. While Usman has become less aggressive under Whitman, Connor thinks he can revert to pressuring Edwards, who has never shown the ability to hold the center of the cage consistently. Connor also points out that Edwards' evasive footwork is poor and his clinch game is neutralized by Usman's strength. He concludes that if Usman commits to pressure, Edwards has no escape.

Usman opened at -350, currently -246; Edwards opened +285, currently +199
"If Usman comes in and just commits to pressuring, I don't see how Edwards escapes that fight."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Jacob is extremely confident in Edwards, having placed a $1,000 bet on him at +205. He believes Edwards was hampered by altitude in the first fight and still found the knockout. He thinks Usman's confidence is shattered after being knocked out cold and that Edwards will dominate in front of the home crowd.

$1,000 bet at +205
"I have a thousand dollar bet only on Edwards I got him plus 205 and I feel absolutely good about it."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a former champion with elite wrestling and cardio, and he was winning the second fight before getting caught. Edwards is a great striker but has defensive grappling issues. Usman should lean on his wrestling and avoid striking exchanges, grinding out a decision. The line is seen as a gift given Usman's proven ability.

Usman by decision
"I think that's going to be look like a gift of a line once this fight is all said and done"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

Paul picks Edwards, citing the UK home advantage and potential hometown scoring. He notes Edwards had success in round one of the last fight (takedown, mount, back control) and is four years younger. He thinks this could be the end of Usman's elite run. He likes the plus money value and says he hasn't bet it yet but is a buyer at north of +200.

"I'm gonna go the opposite side I'm gonna pick Leon Edwards... the fights in the UK we've seen really really shabby scoring... at north of plus 200 I'm gonna be a buyer on Leon Rocky Edwards to retain his title"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Leon Edwards

The MMA Guru picks Leon Edwards to win by decision, despite a history of picking main events wrong. He argues that altitude affected Edwards in the first fight, while Usman trains at elevation. Edwards dominated round one when both were fresh, and Usman's glove grab saved him from a choke. Usman is coming off a brutal KO loss, is older, and had a short camp with a hand injury. Edwards is entering his prime and has confidence. He predicts a 48-47 decision for Edwards.

Edwards wins by decision 48-47
"I'm going with Leon Edwards decision 48-47"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Kamaru Usman

Zane agrees with Connor that Usman should pressure Edwards. He notes that Edwards has never broken 100 significant strikes in a five-round fight and tends to fight down to his competition. Zane highlights that Usman has a history of high output even with wrestling, while Edwards fights in bursts. He thinks the psychological adjustment for Edwards to stand his ground is huge and possibly impossible. Zane also mentions that Usman's wrestling and clinch work will be decisive, as Edwards cannot match him there.

Usman opened at -350, currently -246; Edwards opened +285, currently +199
"I just cannot trust Leon Edwards to hold on to an initiative at all."
LOSS vs Leon Edwards
KO (head kick) R5 4:04 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Leon Edwards 0 83 of 135 61% 189 of 247 5 of 12 41% 0 0 10:36
Kamaru Usman 1 55 of 75 73% 64 of 85 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Leon Edwards 0 6 of 7 85% 36 of 39 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:21
Kamaru Usman 0 13 of 13 100% 17 of 17 1 of 2 50% 1 0 2:01
2 Leon Edwards 0 36 of 65 55% 47 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:42
Kamaru Usman 0 20 of 28 71% 21 of 29 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Leon Edwards 0 10 of 17 58% 38 of 49 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:23
Kamaru Usman 0 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Leon Edwards 0 22 of 30 73% 54 of 62 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:51
Kamaru Usman 0 6 of 10 60% 9 of 13 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:54
5 Leon Edwards 0 9 of 16 56% 14 of 21 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:19
Kamaru Usman 1 9 of 14 64% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Leon Edwards 83 of 135 61% 61 of 109 17 of 21 5 of 5 46 of 85 15 of 22 22 of 28
Kamaru Usman 55 of 75 73% 20 of 38 22 of 24 13 of 13 42 of 62 7 of 7 6 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Leon Edwards 6 of 7 85% 5 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 4
Kamaru Usman 13 of 13 100% 6 of 6 4 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 5 2 of 2 6 of 6
2 Leon Edwards 36 of 65 55% 25 of 52 8 of 10 3 of 3 27 of 49 3 of 6 6 of 10
Kamaru Usman 20 of 28 71% 7 of 15 9 of 9 4 of 4 17 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Leon Edwards 10 of 17 58% 9 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 4 of 6 3 of 5
Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 3 of 5 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Leon Edwards 22 of 30 73% 18 of 25 3 of 4 1 of 1 5 of 12 8 of 9 9 of 9
Kamaru Usman 6 of 10 60% 2 of 5 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Leon Edwards 9 of 16 56% 4 of 10 5 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Kamaru Usman 9 of 14 64% 2 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman to defeat Leon Edwards in their rematch. He notes that Usman is on track to become the greatest welterweight of all time, with technical striking and power, as seen in his knockout over Masvidal. Angelo points out that Usman already beat Edwards in 2015 with six takedowns and 11 minutes of control time, and believes Usman can win anywhere. He also mentions that Edwards struggled against Nate Diaz, getting outstruck and needing takedowns to secure the win. Angelo placed a moneyline bet on Usman at -335 and expects the line to move further.

Placed moneyline bet on Kamaru Usman at -335, expects line to move past -500.
"camaro is the very clear pick for me and again premium members get access to our bets early and you will see that i placed a bet on camaro usman moneyline at minus 335"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman. He acknowledges that Leon Edwards is the better striker at range, but Usman has improved his striking with power and a great jab. Usman is a smart fighter who will use his wrestling and pressure, taking Edwards down and grinding on him for 25 minutes. Brady expects Usman to win by decision, though he notes a finish is possible given Usman's recent power. He respects Edwards but believes Usman's game plan and skills will prevail.

Usman by decision
"i do like kamara usman here i do like him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody picks Usman, emphasizing his stand-up improvement under Trevor Whitman, his wrestling, and the pressure he brings. He questions Edwards' resume and his ability to handle pressure, noting that Edwards has struggled in later rounds against lesser competition. He thinks Usman could knock him out but expects a decision.

"i got to go with uzman i don't know if i'd take it by tko or by decision simple fact is i think he could knock him out but you know logic would dictate he's probably going to grind him …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win the rematch. He emphasizes Usman's superior pace and output, noting that Usman's output is almost double Edwards'. He believes Usman's top control will allow him to bank rounds by holding Edwards down. Levi acknowledges Edwards' paths to victory—slowing the pace and sniping Usman as he closes distance—but ultimately thinks this is a bad time to bet against Usman. He mentions that long-reigning champions sometimes lose when least expected, but he still favors Usman.

Mentions that the first fight was a decision but notes that no two fights are equal; Usman has been scoring knockdowns in recent fights (2,4,6,7 knockdowns in last 5 fights).
"my pick is Camaro here um I just simply think that right now I don't really see him like slowing down too much"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman's wrestling, cardio, and improving striking should overwhelm Edwards, who was nearly finished by Nate Diaz. The host expects Usman to grapple heavily and possibly finish late. He likes Usman round 4-5 or decision at -155 as a better bet than the moneyline. He includes Usman in a four-leg parlay.

Usman round 4-5 or decision (-155) is the preferred bet. Included in a four-leg parlay with Maverick, Albazi, and under 1.5 in Pedro/Hunsucker.
"I think gusman goes out there and does work i think that will see him go to his grappling more than he has over his last couple fights."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul picks Usman to win, citing his cardio advantage from training in Denver, his pressure and wrestling, and the ability to slow down Edwards. He notes the -400 line is too steep but still sees Usman as the winner. He mentions he might look for underdog value elsewhere but officially picks Usman.

"i think guzman you know puts the pace on them probably a lot of like at least in the early rounds like holding him up the cage foot stomps slowing down the mobility of leon edwards kind of grinding him …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Leon Edwards

The Guru predicts Leon Edwards wins via 49-46 unanimous decision, with two judges scoring it 49-46 and one judge giving it 48-47 to Usman. He envisions Edwards landing effective leg kicks, body kicks, and jabs, cutting Usman with an elbow in round one. He sees Edwards rocking Usman with a head kick in round two and an uppercut-left hook combo in round three. However, he acknowledges Edwards slows down in rounds four and five, with Usman taking him down and landing punches, but believes Edwards clearly won rounds one, two, and three.

Edwards wins by unanimous decision 49-46; one judge gives it 48-47 Usman
"leon edwards via 4946 unanimous decision victory against kamaru usman one judge will give it 48 47 usman two judges will give it i said i guess split decision two judges will give it 49-46 edwards"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 268: Usman vs. Covington 2 · Nov 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 2 123 of 293 41% 158 of 336 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Colby Covington 0 107 of 281 38% 119 of 298 0 of 11 0% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 17 of 43 39% 22 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Colby Covington 0 13 of 47 27% 13 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 2 36 of 71 50% 50 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Colby Covington 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
3 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Colby Covington 0 21 of 56 37% 23 of 59 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:05
4 Kamaru Usman 0 23 of 70 32% 24 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Colby Covington 0 33 of 77 42% 38 of 83 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
5 Kamaru Usman 0 24 of 51 47% 32 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Colby Covington 0 21 of 54 38% 26 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 123 of 293 41% 80 of 241 41 of 50 2 of 2 107 of 274 6 of 7 10 of 12
Colby Covington 107 of 281 38% 79 of 242 23 of 33 5 of 6 101 of 274 6 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 17 of 43 39% 12 of 34 4 of 8 1 of 1 15 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 2
Colby Covington 13 of 47 27% 8 of 37 3 of 7 2 of 3 13 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 36 of 71 50% 19 of 51 16 of 19 1 of 1 26 of 58 2 of 3 8 of 10
Colby Covington 19 of 47 40% 10 of 37 6 of 7 3 of 3 17 of 44 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 23 of 58 39% 18 of 52 5 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 57 1 of 1 0 of 0
Colby Covington 21 of 56 37% 15 of 48 6 of 8 0 of 0 20 of 55 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Kamaru Usman 23 of 70 32% 17 of 64 6 of 6 0 of 0 22 of 69 1 of 1 0 of 0
Colby Covington 33 of 77 42% 28 of 71 5 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 75 2 of 2 0 of 0
5 Kamaru Usman 24 of 51 47% 14 of 40 10 of 11 0 of 0 22 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0
Colby Covington 21 of 54 38% 18 of 49 3 of 5 0 of 0 20 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Angelo picks Kamaru Usman, citing his development of knockout power, improved striking, and proven ability to win wars. He notes that the first fight was competitive and that Usman has since shown he can come back from being dropped. He believes Covington cannot win by stoppage and that Usman's power is a constant threat. He thinks the odds are too wide but still picks Usman.

More more on monkey knife fight (strikes)
"i gotta go with uzmon here oozman's the pick to win the rematch but these odds are far too wide"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by fourth-round knockout. He notes Usman's improved striking power, as seen in his knockouts of Burns and Masvidal, while Covington is a decision fighter without power. Brady thinks Covington's volume will be competitive early, but Usman's power and technical striking will take over as the fight goes on. He expects a similar fight to the first, but with Usman finishing Covington late.

fourth round knockout
"i'm going to say a fourth round knockout for kamaru's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody thinks the line is wrong but agrees Usman should win. He notes Covington's pace and durability but believes Usman's cardio and confidence grow as the fight goes on, pulling away late. He expects a close fight and suggests live betting Covington if the line moves.

"i think the line is wrong but i agree uzman should win"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to defend his belt, citing that Usman is slightly better everywhere and that the first fight was a classic war. He notes that Usman has improved his striking and has knockout power, but acknowledges Covington's cardio and heart. Levi is not laying -350 but believes Usman will be slightly ahead and win a close decision. He also mentions that Covington has been training at MMA Masters and may have improved, but still favors Usman.

close decision
"give me uh uzman to just be slightly ahead of covington and defend his belt"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Colby Covington

Jacob picks Colby Covington, believing he will make adjustments and use his wrestling and volume to win a razor-thin decision. He thinks Covington needs to trust his cardio, stay in Usman's face, and avoid loading up on power shots. He notes that Covington was winning the first fight on his scorecard. He has a parlay with Covington and Chandler.

Parlay with Michael Chandler
"i'm going kobe i i just i just feel like colby's going to come in he's going to make the adjustments i think there's more wrestling"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host picks Usman by fourth-round TKO, citing his power and improvements. He thinks the fight will be close but Usman's power is the difference. He considers the over 3.5 rounds and Usman by KO at +180.

Usman by KO (+180), Over 3.5 rounds (-150)
"my official prediction is going to be oozman via ko round four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 3, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman wins about 70-75% of the time, citing Usman's improvements with Whitman, knockout of Masvidal, and durability. He thinks the line is close to accurate but sees value on Covington at plus money. He bet over 3.5 rounds at -135, expecting a competitive fight that goes late.

over 3.5 rounds (-135)
"i pick him to win i think he does win 70ish percent of the time 75 percent of the time"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The Guru picks Kamaru Usman by fourth-round KO, predicting he will target Covington's body early, exploiting a weakness found in their first fight. He notes Usman's activity and mental edge from the previous win, while Covington has been inactive. The Guru expects Covington to win the first round but Usman to take over with body shots and eventually finish with a big right hand and ground strikes.

fourth round ko, body shots
"I'm going with kamaru usman here by a fourth round ko victory."
KO (punch) R2 1:02 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 1 21 of 40 52% 32 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:42
Jorge Masvidal 0 31 of 52 59% 56 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Jorge Masvidal 0 23 of 42 54% 48 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jorge Masvidal 0 8 of 10 80% 8 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 21 of 40 52% 15 of 32 5 of 7 1 of 1 12 of 30 0 of 0 9 of 10
Jorge Masvidal 31 of 52 59% 13 of 33 3 of 4 15 of 15 27 of 47 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 14 of 30 46% 8 of 22 5 of 7 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 4 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 23 of 42 54% 12 of 30 2 of 3 9 of 9 19 of 37 0 of 0 4 of 5
2 Kamaru Usman 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 5
Jorge Masvidal 8 of 10 80% 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 6 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jorge Masvidal

Angelo relays Glover Teixeira's pick of Masvidal, noting that with a full camp Masvidal has takedown defense and striking edge. He agrees with the logic, mentioning Glover's ties to American Top Team and his training with Masvidal. Angelo seems to endorse the pick, calling it good insight.

"i think it's a good pick we got some nice insight there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Usman to win a comfortable decision. He expects Usman to implement his game plan of takedowns, cage control, and foot stomps, grinding out Masvidal. He notes Masvidal has power but Usman has never been KO'd and has excellent takedown defense. He considers Usman a safe parlay piece.

Usman by decision; parlay piece
"give me kamara usman for the win... solid parlay piece"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Usman's wrestling and grinding style. He notes Masvidal's age (36) and journeyman status, and that Usman's jab and clinch work will wear him down. He sees a similar outcome to the first fight, with Usman winning by decision. He mentions the -425 price is in line with an 80% win rate and that Usman by decision is a likely prop.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think that the first the way that the first fight plays out is the same thing here he just wears on georgie up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel picks Kamaru Usman to retain his belt, expecting him to take over in the later rounds as Masvidal fades. He acknowledges Masvidal's improved conditioning with a full camp and his one-punch KO power, but believes Usman's work rate and pressure will be too much. He notes the odds are wide and calls it a dog or pass situation from a betting perspective.

dog or pass situation
"i'm gonna go with uzmana and still"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

I think Usman will repeat his performance from the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using foot stomps, and controlling the pace. Masvidal is durable and hasn't been finished in 12 years, so a decision is likely. Usman's cardio and wrestling are superior. I like Usman by decision at -130, which improves the moneyline odds.

Usman by decision -130
"i'm going kamar oozman by decision we're getting minus 130 on that line right now i think that's a great line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Paul believes Usman will replicate the first fight: grinding Masvidal against the cage, using his wrestling and jab to control the fight. He notes Masvidal's durability and puncher's chance but sees Usman as the superior technician. He expects a decision win, similar to the first fight, and thinks the -425 price is fair but not a value bet.

Usman by decision, over 4.5 rounds, Usman minus 125 (prop for decision)
"i think it's usman oozman by decision all over again"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The MMA Guru picks Kamaru Usman by decision. He notes that Usman had a full camp for Masvidal this time, unlike the short-notice first fight, and that Usman's striking has improved under Trevor Whitman. He believes Usman's grappling is too good and that Masvidal hasn't made significant improvements. He predicts Usman will win with a possible 10-8 round, though Masvidal may take the first round.

"i'm gonna go with kamaru osman of course"
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
TKO (punches) R3 0:34 · UFC 258: Usman vs. Burns · Feb 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kamaru Usman 2 83 of 136 61% 93 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:05
Gilbert Burns 0 45 of 108 41% 55 of 124 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kamaru Usman 0 31 of 53 58% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:43
Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 56 39% 32 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Kamaru Usman 1 39 of 65 60% 40 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Kamaru Usman 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Gilbert Burns 0 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kamaru Usman 83 of 136 61% 56 of 105 11 of 15 16 of 16 54 of 100 3 of 4 26 of 32
Gilbert Burns 45 of 108 41% 18 of 75 13 of 14 14 of 19 44 of 104 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kamaru Usman 31 of 53 58% 10 of 31 8 of 9 13 of 13 13 of 34 3 of 3 15 of 16
Gilbert Burns 22 of 56 39% 12 of 43 7 of 7 3 of 6 21 of 52 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Kamaru Usman 39 of 65 60% 33 of 57 3 of 5 3 of 3 39 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 50 42% 6 of 32 5 of 6 10 of 12 21 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Kamaru Usman 13 of 18 72% 13 of 17 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 16
Gilbert Burns 2 of 2 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Kamaru Usman vs. Gilbert Burns

Round 1
The welterweight championship will go to the winner of the UFC 258 headliner, as “The Nigerian Nightmare” Usman (17-1, 12-0 UFC) tries to make it 13 wins in 13 appearances against the exceptionally dangerous “Durinho” Burns (19-3, 12-3 UFC). This rare high-stakes tilt between teammates will draw oversight from referee Herb Dean, and surprisingly, there is no glove touch between the two as they share a very intense stare down. Burns rushes in with a home run right hand, and Usman sees it coming and bats it away. Burns loads up on a few leg kicks, and lets go with a heavy body kick. Burns nails Usman with a huge right hand, and Usman drops to a knee. Usman recovers, get stung with an overhand right again, and he is still hurt. Usman fires back, and he clips Burns, but the Brazilian is ready to keep throwing. Burns lets loose a head kick that Usman eats flush, and he falls to his back. Usman does not oblige him by jumping into the submission magician’s guard, and instead stands above and kicks at Burns’ thigh. Burns threatens with upkicks and straight kicks to the knee, and the two are stalled out in this kicking situation. Usman picks up Burns’ leg and scores a series of thudding kicks to the thigh. Usman dives down to land a flush right hand, and Burns’ confident face shifts to one of concern. When Burns springs up, he greets Usman with a knee on the chin. Usman reaches out with a jab, and he lands two more while Burns comes up short with a few of his own. Burns stings the champ with a left hand, and Usman reacts every time he takes one. Usman hacks at the leg with a kick, and Burns gives him one back. Usman drops in a body kick and a low kick, and the two trade these low strikes. Burns gets off a right hand over the top, and Usman takes it flush and lands a few stern jabs. The Brazilian lets fly a head kick, and shoots in for a takedown after his leg lands. Usman pushes him away and blocks a subsequent head kick. Burns connects with a right hand, and a few strikes follow suit in a strong combination from Burns. Usman fires back, and when the horn sounds, the two welterweights smile at one another before bumping fists.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Burns marches out of his corner to throw bombs, and Usman absorbs a few punches and stumbles as he walks back. Usman tries to recover some ground with several jabs, and he steps out of the way of a leg kick. A piston-like jab finds its home on Burns’ jaw, and the Brazilian retaliates with a head kick. Usman keeps sticking out the jab, allowing Burns to kick his lead leg out. Usman keeps focused landing the jab practically at will, and Burns diversifies his striking game with body kicks, leg kicks, long punches and other strikes that reach the target. Usman stays composed with repeated jabs, and Burns hurts him with an overhand right. Usman fires back with a right hand that is not quite as substantial. Burns rushes forward with a triple jab, and he gets jabbed a few times to break up a heavy combination. Usman winds up with a monster right hand, and Burns drops to a knee. “Durinho” is hurt badly, and Usman drills him with a few more punches as Burns falls against the fence. Usman stuffs a takedown to jab up Burns’ face, and he follows the jabs with several overhand rights that do more damage. Burns’ nose is marked up, and he is resorting to throwing haymakers while Usman marches him down and touches him with the jab. Burns swings with a big right hand, and Usman blocks it only to return fire with a leg kick. Burns successfully lands a pair of punches, and a retaliatory jab from Usman drops Burns to the canvas. Usman tells Burns to stand up, and Dean allows him to do so. Burns, light on his feet, kicks the leg as he circles on the outside. Usman keeps landing jabs, and he eats a pair of big punches to roll with them and land his own strikes. Usman slaps a loud leg kick home, and Burns ducks a jab to attempt a takedown. As Usman lands a few more jabs, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Usman

Round 3
Burns takes the center of the cage to begin the round, reaching out with long punches and a leg kick. Usman fires off a straight jab from the southpaw stance, and Burns crashes down to the ground hard. Dean rushes in to nearly stop the fight, and the champ leaps down to deliver some nasty ground-and-pound to try to finish the job. Burns rolls through it as he keeps taking punishment, but Usman does not let up. As Burns falls to his back, he is hurt and in a bad way, and “The Nigerian Nightmare” keeps pouring it on. Punch after devastating punch crashes into Burns’ face, and Dean has seen enough as Burns is no longer intelligently defending himself. Usman confidently strides in front of the camera and asks, “Who is taking what from who?” The champ is now a perfect 13-0 inside the Octagon, tying the active UFC win streak record with current lightweight king Khabib Nurmagomedov. What a performance for the champion, who overcame perhaps the stiffest adversity of his UFC career to record an incredibly impressive victory. After the official decision, the two friends and training partners share a long embrace, as Burns lets loose all of his emotions inside the cage. With UFC 258 in the books, the UFC will carry on next week with a Fight Night card in a long string of events until the end of March.

The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Gilbert Burns R3 0:34 via TKO (Punches)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Big Brady picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision. He believes Usman has more paths to victory, including controlling the fight against the cage and using his wrestling. He notes that Burns' level of competition is lower and that Usman's takedown defense is perfect. He thinks Burns' only path is a submission, but Usman hasn't been submitted in over a decade. He expects a boring fight but a clear win for Usman.

Usman by decision; Usman is a fine parlay piece; Burns by submission is the only path for Burns
"I'm going to take usman here I'm going to say he wins by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 12, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Daniel Levi picks Kamaru Usman to win by decision, citing Usman's relentless work rate and output. He notes that Usman lands far more strikes than Burns (e.g., 175 vs Colby, 130 vs RDA) and questions Burns' ability to maintain pace over five rounds. He acknowledges Burns' power and submission threat but believes Usman's pressure and cardio will wear him down. He also mentions the former teammate dynamic and that Burns must have fight-changing moments to win.

Usman by decision; Burns must finish to win; mentions Burns' submission threat but says it's been 8 years since he was submitted
"i just see usman wearing on him down the stretch and winning a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host believes Usman is the better fighter with superior wrestling, pace, pressure, and strength. He notes that Burns' impressive run includes wins over an aging Tyron Woodley and a past-prime Demian Maia, and that Burns has never faced pressure like Usman's. He expects Usman to drown Burns in the later rounds with his cardio and clinch work, predicting a decision victory.

by decision prop mentioned as potential play
"i just don't see where burns will truly be able to beat him like the durability of kamaru usman is amazing he's never been knocked down in the ufc"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

The Guru picks Gilbert Burns as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight that should not have such wide odds. He believes Burns has better stand-up and grappling technique, dangerous knockout power, and the advantage of training with Usman's former teammates at Sanford MMA who know his weaknesses. He also notes Usman's recent broken nose and recovery issues. He predicts Burns will catch Usman in an exchange and win by TKO in the first or second round.

Burns by TKO in first or second round; odds are too wide; Burns is a 3-to-1 underdog
"i'm going with gilbert burns... this is the most dangerous defense of usman's belt... how on earth is gilbert burns that much of an underdog this is a 50 50 bout man"
Expert Picks (18)
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis by KO, believing his awkward power and size advantage will overwhelm an aging Usman. He notes Usman's wrestling may control early, but DDP's never-say-die attitude and looping shots will find a home later. He is not confident in the odds but sees DDP as the pick.

DDP by KO (+200), DDP by submission (+950), Usman by decision (+425)
"I'm going Duplexi to keep his king of Africa belt wrapped tightly around his waist."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ backs Du Plessis, citing his power, forward pressure, and offensive wrestling. He notes Usman's inactivity and age (39) and believes Du Plessis can hurt him late. AJ acknowledges Du Plessis's defensive wrestling flaws but thinks his toughness and motivation (Africa rivalry) will carry him.

Du Plessis by KO (rounds 3-5); Du Plessis in parlay
"Dricus Du Plessis minus 240. Yes, I'm believing in the Du Plessis dream... I think Dricus Du Plessis is live to pull this one out by KO, actually, a later stage KO between rounds three and five."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis, citing his punching power, takedown defense, and cardio. He believes du Plessis will stop Usman's takedowns and land big overhands, potentially knocking out the aging Usman. AJ notes du Plessis's chaotic style and ability to change the fight in an instant, while Usman's best days are behind him.

du Plessis by KO +205
"I think Drius Duplexi is back in the biggest of ways this Saturday and I'm picking him to win by knockout against Kamar Usman."
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

AJ picks Dricus du Plessis to knock out Kamaru Usman. He believes du Plessis's awkward striking, power, and improved takedown defense will be key against the 39-year-old Usman, who has been inactive and has bad knees. He expects du Plessis to land a big overhand or body kick and finish in the middle rounds, possibly after surviving some early grappling.

Du Plessis by KO, under 3.5 rounds (+165), du Plessis to win inside distance
"I'm going Drius Duplexi to beat Camaro Usman. Come on now."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks DDP because he believes DDP's brute force, size, and relentless pace will overwhelm Usman. He notes that DDP can shoot his own takedowns and won't wait, and if he fights like he did against Strickland, he wins clearly. He acknowledges Usman's path via wrestling but thinks DDP is too big and strong.

"I think DDP is too big, too strong, too much of a brute, too much of a bruiser."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Angelo picks DDP but is hesitant to bet. He notes DDP's brute strength and cardio, but acknowledges Usman's wrestling could cause problems, as seen in DDP's fight against Khamzat Chimaev where he was taken down 12 times. He thinks DDP's strength advantage will overcome any skill gap, but he's not confident enough to bet the moneyline, instead considering a round line over.

round line over
"I'm going to pick DDP here. I don't know if I can pull the trigger on a bet. So, I might just stick to a round line over."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting that many are on Usman but the line is moving toward Dricus. He argues that Usman's win over Joaquin Buckley was not dominant and that Usman is nearly 40 with bad knees. He believes Dricus will stuff takedowns and get back up easily since Usman lacks submission threat, unlike Khamzat Chimaev. He is considering Dricus moneyline if the odds improve, or inside the distance/KO props.

Dricus du Plessis moneyline (if line drops), Dricus inside the distance, Dricus KO
"I think it's Dricus here. You know, Dricus, I think he's going to stuff some takedowns here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Big Brady picks Dricus du Plessis, noting Usman's age (39) and knee issues. He believes du Plessis will do better work on the feet and that Usman won't be able to hold him down. He predicts a decision win, citing Usman's durability.

"I'm going Drias here. ... give me Drias by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Cody acknowledges Kamaru Usman's stylistic advantages like a good jab and wrestling, but leans heavily on Dricus du Plessis due to age (Usman is 39), size, and Dricus's proven takedown ability against top competition. He notes Dricus is younger, has held the belt, and matches physicality, making him the play despite Usman's tempting plus money.

Dricus moneyline; over 3.5 rounds at -185 preferred over moneyline
"I think he's got a shot, but I feel like Drakus is the play."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Connor picks Usman despite acknowledging the size disadvantage, because he trusts Usman's wrestling and game planning more than du Plessis's ability to improve. He notes that du Plessis's mindset of fighting out of bad positions rather than preventing them is a fundamental flaw that may not be fixable. He also points out that Usman's jab and relentless takedown ability could wear down du Plessis even if Usman gets tired. However, he admits that if du Plessis were welterweight size, he would pick Usman in a heartbeat.

Odds: Usman +195 underdog. Connor notes the line is reasonable.
"I'm going to pick Usman. All right. You know, I'm just hoping it's one of those nights. He's going to hit his takedown and then he starts to get tired and the place is like, now's my moment. And then he's like, Oh shit. Usman also has a jab."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Daniel Levi picks Dricus du Plessis to win, citing age advantage (du Plessis entering prime vs Usman near 40) and du Plessis's year off to recover and improve his get-up game. He believes du Plessis's awkward, violent striking will eventually overwhelm Usman, predicting a late second or third round finish. He notes Usman's stiffness on the feet and declining durability, while acknowledging du Plessis's wrestling vulnerabilities but expecting him to survive takedowns.

finish prediction: late second or third round KO/TKO
"I got Drizz Dupy to come out here, get back on track and finish Camaro Usman."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman is a massive underdog at +190, and the host believes these odds are insane. Du Plessis's takedown defense and ground game were exposed badly against Khamzat Chimaev, where he looked like a white belt. Usman is one of the best MMA grapplers ever and has elite cardio. The host sees no reason why Usman can't replicate Chimaev's performance, giving Usman at least a 40% chance of winning, which provides a 7% margin over the bookie.

Bet Usman moneyline at +190.
"it's an absolute no-brainer to bet Kamaro Usman at odds of 2.90 plus 190 for an implied probability of 33%."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Lucrative James picks Dricus du Plessis to win by knockout, citing du Plessis's power, athleticism, and durability advantages as the fight goes later. He notes that Kamaru Usman is aging and has shown a deteriorating chin, while du Plessis has more tools on the feet and better cardio for a five-round fight. However, he believes the odds are too wide and considers betting on Usman or the fight not going to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, du Plessis KO
"I'm going to pick Drius Dublacy via knockout in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

The host notes Usman's durability and believes his transition to 185 lbs will be successful due to his frame. He expects Usman to get to his wrestling game, wear down du Plessis, and win a decision.

"I believe his transition up to 185 lbs will be kind of successful. He has the frame for it as he'll only be giving up, I believe, 1 in in height, but will have the same reach as du Plessis here, and I think we'll see him successfully get to …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Kamaru Usman

Usman's wrestling and durability should be the difference; he can grind out du Plessis by landing takedowns and controlling the fight. du Plessis has shown vulnerability to strong grapplers like Khamzat Chimaev, and Usman is a similar style fighter with proven cardio. At plus money, Usman is a strong value pick to win a decision.

Usman by decision, du Plessis by knockout as a hedge
"I'm going to lean on Usman just being a little bit more effective and finding safety in his wrestling when he needs it. ... I'm going Kamar Usman. I'm going to go Usman by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Paul agrees with Cody, citing volume and Dricus's ability to control on the mat, unlike Usman who hasn't shown that type of control. He mentions Dricus could get a good jump early, so live betting is not a cop-out. He prefers Dricus moneyline but isn't overly excited about it.

Dricus moneyline
"Drius is the side for me and you can't I can't I can't even have the live betting cop out because like Drius very well could get a good jump on him."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

The MMA Guru picks Dricus du Plessis over Kamaru Usman, citing du Plessis' youth, power, and five-round experience. He believes Usman cannot keep du Plessis down like Khamzat did and that du Plessis will wear on Usman with body and low kicks. He predicts a TKO in round three.

TKO in round three, body kicks, low kicks
"I'm going with Dricus Du Plessis... I think he's going to TKO Kamaru Usman in round three with big shots up against the cage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dricus du Plessis

Zane picks du Plessis primarily due to size advantage, noting du Plessis is much bigger than Joaquin Buckley and that Usman's wrestling success against Buckley may not translate to holding down a larger opponent. He also questions Usman's durability at age 39 and the sustainability of his wrestling-heavy approach. However, he acknowledges Usman's wrestling credentials and the possibility that du Plessis hasn't improved his defensive wrestling since the Chimaev fight.

Odds: du Plessis -230 favorite, Usman +195 underdog. Zane notes the line seems reasonable.
"The big reason that I am picking Du Plessy here... is quite frankly, Du Plessy is just bigger. He's just a lot bigger than Joaquin Buckley."