Career Averages - Cody Stamann
Career Averages - Brian Kelleher
Cody Stamann - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 13 of 33 | 39% | 13 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 20 of 44 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 13 of 33 | 39% | 5 of 21 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Da'Mon Blackshear | 13 of 33 | 39% | 5 of 21 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 13 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 20 of 44 | 45% | 15 of 36 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo believes Da'Mon Blackshear is the better fighter with far better striking and good wrestling. He thinks Cody Stamann will get outstruck and then shoot sloppy takedowns. However, he notes Blackshear is 2-4 in the UFC and hasn't had a key win over a division staple like Stamann, so he is not confident enough to bet. He might consider a plus 3.5 round bet on Stamann if the odds are good.
Big Brady favors Blackshear due to his size, reach, and youth advantage over the 35-year-old Stamann. He believes Blackshear's striking is underrated and his grappling is elite, with a black belt in BJJ. He expects Blackshear to have success wherever the fight goes and predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges the line may be too wide.
Cody is high on Stamann as a dog, citing Blackshear's cardio issues and lack of power. He notes Stamann's wrestling credentials and ability to get back up from takedowns. Cody expects a close decision and thinks the +230 line is too wide for a veteran like Stamann.
Connor picks Stamann, noting Blackshear is too willing to start from negative positions and it has cost him. He thinks Stamann's neutralizer style will make Blackshear make mistakes. Connor expects a narrow split decision, possibly ugly. He mentions Stamann is the underdog at +217 to +232.
Daniel Vreeland picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his physical advantages (reach, height) and higher aspirations compared to Cody Stamann, who may be nearing retirement. He acknowledges Stamann's takedown defense and ability to make fights close, but believes Blackshear's grappling and motivation give him the edge. Vreeland expects a close fight.
Stamann is being overlooked as a +230 underdog. His defensive wrestling should keep him away from Blackshear's BJJ, allowing him to dictate the striking pace and pull away in the second and third rounds as Blackshear slows down. Expect a decision win.
Paul agrees, questioning how Blackshear can be such a favorite given his recent KO loss and cardio problems. He thinks Stamann's experience and wrestling will keep the fight competitive, and the price is too good to pass up. Paul calls it a clear dogger pass.
The Guru picks Da'Mon Blackshear, citing his size, strength, and youth. He criticizes Cody Stamann's lack of finishing ability and short reach. He notes Blackshear gave Mario Bautista a tough fight and believes he is the better fighter. He mentions the odds might be worth betting on Blackshear as a favorite.
Zane picks Stamann, agreeing with Connor. He describes Stamann as a solid defensive striker who can bang in the pocket, but notes he never presses advantages. Zane thinks Blackshear's poor striking and tendency to start from negative positions will allow Stamann to neutralize him. He expects a narrow split decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 59 of 143 | 41% | 64 of 150 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:24 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 100 of 180 | 55% | 107 of 190 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 22 of 48 | 45% | 22 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 30 of 58 | 51% | 30 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 22 of 49 | 44% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 35 of 66 | 53% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | Taylor Lapilus | 0 | 15 of 46 | 32% | 18 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 35 of 56 | 62% | 37 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Taylor Lapilus | 59 of 143 | 41% | 23 of 101 | 28 of 33 | 8 of 9 | 47 of 125 | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 100 of 180 | 55% | 60 of 132 | 25 of 31 | 15 of 17 | 84 of 162 | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taylor Lapilus | 22 of 48 | 45% | 10 of 32 | 11 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 40 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 30 of 58 | 51% | 12 of 37 | 14 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 22 of 50 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Taylor Lapilus | 22 of 49 | 44% | 8 of 33 | 10 of 11 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 41 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 35 of 66 | 53% | 21 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 7 of 8 | 29 of 58 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Taylor Lapilus | 15 of 46 | 32% | 5 of 36 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 35 of 56 | 62% | 27 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 33 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Taylor Lapilus, citing his superior kickboxing and outstanding takedown defense. He notes that Cody Stamann is well-rounded but lacks power, and Taylor's ability to work in and out of range should be key. However, he worries that Taylor might be too tentative like in his last fight, where he was afraid of takedowns and didn't throw enough. He thinks Taylor is the better overall fighter but the fight could be close.
Big Brady picks Taylor Lapilus to win by decision. He highlights Lapilus's elite takedown defense and get-up game, as well as a 9-inch reach advantage. He notes that Cody Stamann hasn't wrestled since 2020 and has only completed five takedowns, so the fight will likely stay standing where Lapilus has the edge.
Cody picks Lapilus, noting that Stamann has been inactive and has not looked interested in wrestling recently. Lapilus is a smooth striker with good takedown defense. Cody expects Lapilus to outpoint Stamann on the feet and win a decision. He trusts Lapilus' activity and technical striking.
Daniel confidently picks Stamann as a plus-money underdog, arguing that Lapilus fights close decisions and doesn't run through opponents. He notes Stamann is experienced and competitive with everyone, and that the line is too wide. He expects a controversial split decision for Stamann.
Jacob picks Taylor Lapilus, agreeing with the odds. He notes that Taylor is probably twice the fighter Cody is, with great striking and takedown defense. Cody is tough and has boxing and wrestling, but Jacob thinks Taylor's skills should win the fight, likely by decision. He warns that the -250 odds might make people sweat because Cody is no pushover and could win rounds. He also mentions that Taylor's -3.5 round line might be risky because Taylor is not high volume.
Lapilus has speed and striking advantage from distance, but his takedown defense is a concern. Stamann has a wrestling background but doesn't use it enough. Lapilus should land better strikes and stuff takedowns to win a decision, but the line at -265 is too wide for comfort.
Paul picks Lapilus, noting that Stamann has not used his wrestling in recent fights and seems to have lost interest. Lapilus is the better striker and should win a competitive decision. Paul thinks Stamann's inactivity and lack of urgency will cost him.
The Guru picks Lapilus because Stamann is past his prime, hasn't fought in over a year, and struggles to implement his wrestling. Lapilus is tall and rangy, making it difficult for Stamann to find the inside. He thinks Stamann's takedown attempts will be fruitless as Lapilus can frame and get back to his feet. He expects Lapilus to outwork Stamann on the inside with knees.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 54 of 139 | 38% | 66 of 152 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 61 of 178 | 34% | 72 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 23 of 72 | 31% | 23 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 0 | 14 of 44 | 31% | 14 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 1 | 26 of 56 | 46% | 38 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 28 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Douglas Silva de Andrade | 54 of 139 | 38% | 40 of 116 | 9 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 49 of 133 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 61 of 178 | 34% | 17 of 108 | 23 of 43 | 21 of 27 | 60 of 175 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 39 | 35% | 8 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 23 of 72 | 31% | 7 of 42 | 7 of 15 | 9 of 15 | 22 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 14 of 44 | 31% | 10 of 37 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 14 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 21 of 52 | 40% | 4 of 30 | 9 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Douglas Silva de Andrade | 26 of 56 | 46% | 22 of 48 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Cody Stamann | 17 of 54 | 31% | 6 of 36 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo gives a slight lean to Cody Stamann, citing his wrestling and pace. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade hits hard and is strong at 135, but Stamann can stick with the pace. He says both are durable and if he bets, it would be over 2.5 rounds. He calls it a slight lean.
Big Brady sees this as a close fight. He notes Stamann has a volume edge on the feet, but Andrade has a four-inch reach advantage and all the power and finishing upside. He mentions Andrade has good takedown defense and an excellent get-up game, making it hard for Stamann to hold him down. Brady expects a competitive striking match that likely goes to decision, and picks Andrade to win by landing the bigger shots and having the bigger moments, possibly via split decision.
Cody picks Stamann but is hesitant, noting that Stamann often struggles against opponents he should beat. He points out Stamann's close fight with Luan Lacerda where he was outstruck in damage. He worries about de Andrade's power and takedown defense, and thinks the line is accurate. He expects a close decision.
Connor leans toward Stamann but is less confident, noting that Stamann's new aggressive style still has hitches and that de Andrade's power and unpredictability could cause problems. He thinks Stamann's counterpunching and body work are key, but de Andrade's wild swings could land. Connor sees this as a good test for Stamann's evolution.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann via decision, describing him as a solid, meat-and-potatoes fighter who does just enough to win. He notes that Stamann's fights are usually close, but he consistently edges out opponents. Levi acknowledges Silva de Andrade's power and submission threats, but believes Stamann's takedown defense and point fighting will earn him a narrow decision. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation for betting.
Stamann's speed and footwork will keep him out of danger against the aggressive, powerful Silva de Andrade. He can dart in and out with combinations, mix in takedowns to slow the Brazilian, and pull away later in the fight. Stamann is motivated and will put on a complete performance to win by decision.
Paul picks Stamann, expecting him to utilize his wrestling and pace. He notes that Stamann should avoid striking exchanges and take the fight to the ground. He thinks the line should be closer to -200 and sees value at -145. He mentions Stamann's takedown prop on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru leans towards Douglas Silva de Andrade, citing his toughness and dangerous pocket fighting. He notes that Cody Stamann has short reach and must be in the pocket, where Silva de Andrade is more dangerous. He predicts a close decision win.
Zane picks Cody Stamann, banking on his durability and newfound aggression. He notes that Stamann has never been knocked out and that his counterpunching and body work could exploit de Andrade's wild style. However, he acknowledges that de Andrade is dangerous and that Stamann's transformation is still incomplete, making this a tough test.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 80 of 181 | 44% | 85 of 187 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 103 of 189 | 54% | 108 of 195 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 29 of 59 | 49% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 31 of 66 | 46% | 31 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 33 of 78 | 42% | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 52 of 87 | 59% | 52 of 87 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 18 of 44 | 40% | 23 of 50 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Luan Lacerda | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 80 of 181 | 44% | 31 of 113 | 44 of 61 | 5 of 7 | 80 of 181 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 103 of 189 | 54% | 62 of 139 | 29 of 38 | 12 of 12 | 101 of 186 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 29 of 59 | 49% | 9 of 33 | 17 of 22 | 3 of 4 | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 31 of 66 | 46% | 17 of 49 | 8 of 11 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Cody Stamann | 33 of 78 | 42% | 17 of 53 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 33 of 78 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 52 of 87 | 59% | 31 of 63 | 17 of 20 | 4 of 4 | 50 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cody Stamann | 18 of 44 | 40% | 5 of 27 | 12 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luan Lacerda | 20 of 36 | 55% | 14 of 27 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Cody Stamann as the rightful favorite due to fighting much better competition. He notes Lacerda has a legit BJJ black belt but often pulls guard and rolls for submissions, which doesn't work as well in the UFC. He thinks Lacerda won't be able to get takedowns and will have to rely on a Hail Mary submission. Stamann has been submitted twice but against elite grapplers like Sterling and Said. He predicts a decision win for Stamann.
Cody picks Cody Stamann confidently, noting his wrestling, cardio, and versatility. He says Stamann is a generalist who can do everything well, while Lacerda is a one-dimensional BJJ specialist. He thinks Stamann will neutralize Lacerda's grappling and win on the feet. He mentions Stamann's experience against top competition and his ability to avoid submissions.
Connor agrees, noting Lacerda is not proactive and Stamann is a tough gatekeeper. Lacerda's style is janky and he may not be able to exploit Stamann's flaws.
Paul picks Cody Stamann, noting his wrestling and striking advantages. He says Stamann is a safe bet among the big favorites on the card. He mentions Lacerda's BJJ is dangerous but thinks Stamann will avoid submissions and win a decision. He says Stamann's experience and versatility will be too much.
The Guru picks Stamann despite acknowledging the risk of decline. He notes Stamann's losses are to top bantamweights like Sterling, Develashvili, and Rivera, and he beat Eddie Wineland convincingly. At 33, Stamann is still hungry and training at Extreme Couture. The Guru believes Lacerda is not on the level of Sayed or Song to submit Stamann, and that Stamann's wrestling and pressure will carry him to a 29-28 decision after surviving an early bad situation.
Zane picks Stamann because Lacerda is too passive and slow-paced. Stamann is a good wrestler who can enforce his game. Lacerda's submissions come from wrestling, but he won't outwrestle Stamann. Stamann is tough and durable.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eddie Wineland | 1 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Eddie Wineland | 1 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 32 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Stamann | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Wineland | 27 of 38 | 71% | 23 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Stamann | 3 of 7 | 42% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Eddie Wineland | 27 of 38 | 71% | 23 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 6 |
Angelo picks Cody Stamann, citing his well-rounded skills, wrestling background, and pace. He notes Stamann averages almost 3 takedowns per fight and has no problem getting in his opponent's face. He acknowledges Eddie Wineland's experience and danger but believes Stamann's wrestling and pace will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Cody Stamann to win by second-round knockout. He acknowledges Stamann is a wrestler but believes he can outstrike Wineland, who has poor striking defense and a weak chin. He notes Wineland's takedown defense is historically good, but Stamann's power and Wineland's decline make a knockout likely.
Cody picks Stamann, noting his tough competition and advanced skill set. He thinks Wineland's chin and reflexes are gone, and Stamann will win by decision or TKO. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins due to Stamann's weight cut issues.
Daniel Levi confidently picks Cody Stamann, noting Eddie Wineland is damaged goods at 38 and has been knocked out by lesser fighters. Stamann is a competent, well-rounded fighter who wins rounds, though he rarely finishes. Levi expects a unanimous decision but acknowledges the -700 price is not worth betting. He simply states Stamann is the pick.
Paul agrees, noting Wineland's age and recent KO losses. He thinks the UFC is giving Stamann a favorable matchup and he should win easily. He also suggests waiting for weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Cody Stamann, calling it a no-brainer. He notes that Eddie Wineland is 37 and has taken a lot of damage, while Stamann is younger and has good grappling. He expects Stamann to use his wrestling to secure takedowns and ride out a 30-27 decision, as Wineland is a veteran unlikely to be submitted but unable to stop the grappling.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 7 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Said Nurmagomedov | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Said Nurmagomedov | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cody Stamann, expecting his pace and takedowns to frustrate a ring-rusty Nurmagomedov. He compares it to Barcelos vs Nurmagomedov where Barcelos won a decision. He admits it's not a confident pick but likes Cody in that matchup.
Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by decision, citing his striking advantage, volume, defense, and significant reach and height advantages. He notes that Stamann's path to victory is takedowns, but Stamann struggles to control opponents and Nurmagomedov has good takedown defense and scrambling. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Nurmagomedov will outpoint Stamann.
Cody picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, arguing that the line is off because people assume Nurmagomedov has grappling like other Nurmagomedovs, but Said is primarily a striker. He notes that Said has been taken down before (e.g., by Bibilatov) and that Stamann has good wrestling and game plans. Cody believes Stamann will use takedowns and top control to win a decision, and likes the plus money.
Daniel Levi leans toward Said Nurmagomedov but is not confident enough to lay the -200 price. He notes Nurmagomedov's explosive striking and six-inch reach advantage, but acknowledges Stamann's wrestling and ability to make fights close. Levi thinks Stamann can be competitive with anyone and that the fight could be a split decision. He ultimately gives a slight edge to Nurmagomedov due to his flashy striking and crowd-pleasing style.
The host believes the line is inflated due to the 'Russian tax' on Nurmagomedov. He argues that Stamann has the wrestling advantage and will be able to take Nurmagomedov down, especially in later rounds. He notes that Nurmagomedov prefers to strike from range, but Stamann can crash the pocket and use his wrestling. He expects Stamann to win a decision by out-grappling and out-working Nurmagomedov.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Stamann as a live dog. He notes that Said's wrestling hasn't been tested at UFC level and that Stamann is a bigger bantamweight who has fought tough competition. Paul believes Stamann's wrestling and game planning will expose Said's defensive weaknesses. He also mentions that Stamann has scored takedowns in his last four fights.
The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his youth, improvements, and recent first-round KO of Mark Striegl. He believes Nurmagomedov can stuff takedowns and outwork Stamann, predicting a second-round spinning back kick to the body TKO. He notes Stamann's recent losses and crying incident as signs of decline.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 71 of 192 | 36% | 178 of 306 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 1 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 48 of 134 | 35% | 73 of 163 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 1 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 26 of 68 | 38% | 34 of 78 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 21 of 54 | 38% | 74 of 109 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:09 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:07 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 24 of 70 | 34% | 70 of 119 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 17 of 47 | 36% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 71 of 192 | 36% | 49 of 158 | 16 of 25 | 6 of 9 | 64 of 183 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 |
| Cody Stamann | 48 of 134 | 35% | 27 of 102 | 20 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 41 of 126 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 26 of 68 | 38% | 20 of 61 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 24 of 64 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 21 of 51 | 41% | 13 of 38 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 48 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 21 of 54 | 38% | 10 of 36 | 7 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 16 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Cody Stamann | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 25 | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 32 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 24 of 70 | 34% | 19 of 61 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 24 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 17 of 47 | 36% | 11 of 39 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Big Brady picks Merab Dvalishvili to win by decision. He highlights Merab's relentless pace, pressure, and takedown volume, even if he can't hold opponents down. He believes Merab will wear Stamann down with constant takedown attempts and cage pressure. Brady notes that both fighters are not finishers, so he expects the fight to go to decision. He also suggests Merab by decision as a parlay piece.
Cody is intrigued by Cody Stamann as an underdog. He notes that Merab's takedowns are often stuffed by better competition, as seen in the John Dodson fight (2 for 20). He thinks Stamann has the better striking and can stuff takedowns, making it a close competitive fight. He also mentions that Merab's main training partner Aljamain Sterling is out with surgery, which could affect his preparation. He acknowledges the sweat because Merab's grinding style is tough to bet against, but at +215 he finds it generous enough.
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win, emphasizing his relentless pressure, takedown volume, and improved striking. He notes that Stamann is solid but tends to be a point fighter who may be outworked. Levi believes Dvalishvili's aggression and cardio will lead to a decision win.
The host picks Merab Dvalishvili by decision, citing his relentless pace and takedown volume. He notes that Stamann is a good wrestler but expects Dvalishvili's motor to be too much. He believes the fight goes the distance and Dvalishvili wins on volume.
Paul is leaning toward Merab, noting that he has made tons of improvements and is a grinding machine. He acknowledges that Stamann is a better striker and has decent wrestling, but Merab's relentless takedown pace could overwhelm him. He mentions that Merab's takedown numbers are impressive (11-13 per fight) and that even if Stamann gets up, Merab will drag him back down. However, he is not convinced Merab can dominate wrestling exchanges against Stamann, and he prefers the 'Merab by decision' prop at -125.
The MMA Guru picks Merab Dvalishvili over Cody Stamann, citing Dvalishvili's superior grappling and pace. He notes that Dvalishvili controlled John Dodson, who has great takedown defense, and that Stamann has struggled in grappling exchanges. He predicts Dvalishvili will win a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Stamann possibly winning the first round on strikes but Dvalishvili taking over in the later rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 48 of 89 | 53% | 90 of 134 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 26 of 72 | 36% | 62 of 108 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 27 of 37 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 2 | Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 15 of 23 | 65% | 21 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 11 of 28 | 39% | 28 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 | |
| 3 | Jimmie Rivera | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 42 of 65 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Cody Stamann | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmie Rivera | 48 of 89 | 53% | 16 of 44 | 13 of 16 | 19 of 29 | 32 of 68 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 5 |
| Cody Stamann | 26 of 72 | 36% | 13 of 55 | 8 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 18 of 61 | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmie Rivera | 15 of 25 | 60% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 13 | 11 of 17 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Cody Stamann | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jimmie Rivera | 15 of 23 | 65% | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 6 | 10 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
| Cody Stamann | 11 of 28 | 39% | 4 of 19 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 22 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jimmie Rivera | 18 of 41 | 43% | 4 of 22 | 7 of 9 | 7 of 10 | 11 of 33 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Stamann | 8 of 28 | 28% | 4 of 23 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jimmie Rivera, believing he is the better striker and faster fighter. He thinks Rivera's 95% takedown defense will neutralize Stamann's wrestling, and that Rivera will land more and harder strikes. He predicts a decision win, noting neither fighter is a finisher, and suggests betting on Rivera by decision or the fight going to decision.
Daniel Levi picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, citing his versatility, fight IQ, and ability to fight in multiple stances. He believes Rivera has an old-school style and hasn't evolved, while Stamann can outpoint and outwork him, possibly even knocking him down.
The Guru picks Jimmie Rivera, noting his losses are to elite fighters (Petr Yan, Aljamain Sterling, Marlon Moraes) while his wins include John Dodson, Thomas Almeida, and Urijah Faber. He believes Rivera's takedown defense and reach advantage will be key. Cody Stamann's best win is over Song Yadong, but that win has lost value. Rivera is a level above and should win by decision.
Brian Kelleher - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gibson | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Gibson | 0 | 2 of 12 | 16% | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 18 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 2:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Gibson | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Gibson | 2 of 12 | 16% | 0 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 13 of 24 | 54% | 9 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gibson (-205), Kelleher (+170)
Round 1
Rounding out the rocky prelims is an aging 135er with a .500 record in the promotion against a fellow fighter over the age of 35 a loss away from reaching the dreaded “Sinosic Line.” Gibson (19-10, 1-5 UFC) is not the only fighter to sport this record of 1-5 with the potential to go 1-6 tonight, but more on that later. He battles the hyper-aggressive Kelleher (24-15, 8-8 UFC), and this one has the potential of ending in the blink of an eye. Referee Kerry Hatley is ready for whatever happens next, and that is a touch of gloves. Kelleher immediately goes on the offensive with a leg kick and a front kick. Gibson gives him back an overhand right to make Kelleher take a funny step back, and he connects with two more punches that make Kelleher turn away and have to recover. Kelleher gets back to the middle of the cage and kicks a few more times, and he is reached with a front kick by “The Renegade.” Gibson connects with a calf kick, and he misses with a one-two. Kelleher races forward swinging fists, and Gibson grabs hold of him and manages to take his back standing to wrench him down to a knee. Kelleher pops back up, but the second effort for Gibson succeeds. Kelleher tries to set up a guillotine choke, and Gibson frees himself and assumes top position. Kelleher fights his way back to his feet in a hurry, and Gibson grinds on him as he looks for a mat return. Gibson succeeds in putting Kelleher down for a second, only for “Boom” to explode to his feet again. Kelleher hand-fights to spin out but eats a knee on the break. Gibson races after him with an uppercut and a slashing elbow, and he pushes Kelleher to the fence. Kelleher welcomes him with a knee, and Gibson gives him a few back. Kelleher turns eats an elbow that drops him to a knee, but Kelleher recovers and pursues a takedown. Gibson turns him away and attacks for his own takedown, leading to Kelleher jumping guard for a guillotine choke.
“The Renegade” breaks out of the choke and moves into half guard, where he almost instantly locks down an arm-triangle choke. Kelleher is stuck in a precarious position, and when he tries to fight out of it, he finds that Gibson is an immovable stone on his body. Kelleher surrenders before going out,
and tonight has its first finish. Gibson earns his first victory since his first stint in the promotion in 2014, and he is elated to get his hand raised in the Octagon for the second time.
The Official Result
Cody Gibson def. Brian Kelleher R1 3:58 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Cody Gibson because he is the more focused fighter with length and cardio, while Brian Kelleher is past his prime and on a three-fight skid. However, he is not confident at the favorite price and notes that Kelleher's losses have been to top competition. He considers an inside the distance/decision no action bet on Gibson.
Cody picks Gibson, citing his size advantage (5'10" reach vs 5'6"), durability, and volume. He notes Kelleher's age (38), neck injury, and recent inactivity. He thinks Gibson can outwork Kelleher and that Kelleher's path to victory via guillotine is unlikely. He calls both fighters 'expired milk' but leans Gibson.
Daniel Vreeland reluctantly picks Brian Kelleher, despite initially favoring Cody Gibson. He notes Gibson's tendency to fade in fights, citing the Ray Borg and Brad Katona fights where Gibson was winning early but fell apart. Vreeland believes Kelleher can survive early and take over late, possibly by submission or TKO.
Gibson is a favorite at -185. He has a 4-inch height and 7-inch reach advantage, which he can use to keep Kelleher at bay with his boxing and kicks. Kelleher is on a three-fight losing streak and approaching 38, showing signs of decline. Gibson needs to be wary of Kelleher's guillotine, but he should be able to dictate the pace and win a decision.
Paul also picks Gibson, agreeing that wrestling will be negated and that Gibson's volume will be key. He notes Gibson's close fight with Brad Katona where he landed 164 significant strikes. He thinks Kelleher's guillotine is a threat but not enough to overcome Gibson's output.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Gibson despite previously saying he'd never pick him again. He notes Gibson might be able to hurt Kelleher, who is 37 and has been inactive with multiple neck surgeries. He points to Kelleher's recent first-round losses to Umar Nurmagomedov, Cody Garbrandt, and Mario Bautista, and questions his dedication. Gibson's close fight with Miles Johns is seen as a positive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 21 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 17 of 25 | 68% | 21 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cody Garbrandt | 20 of 41 | 48% | 16 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 35 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 17 of 25 | 68% | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cody Garbrandt, stating he should dominate everywhere, but worries about his chin and tendency to brawl. He notes that if Cody shows patience, he is a confident pick. He is unsure about betting due to chin concerns.
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher to win by knockout, despite acknowledging Garbrandt is more skilled. He notes Garbrandt's chin issues (4 KO losses) and washed performances, while Kelleher has power and a guillotine threat. Brady believes Kelleher will force exchanges and land a big shot, putting Garbrandt out. He also notes Garbrandt has zero submissions, so a sub win is unlikely.
Cody picks Garbrandt, arguing that he is better in every aspect of martial arts except durability. He notes that Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Kelleher has only two KO wins in six years. Cody believes Garbrandt will fight smart behind his jab and potentially win by decision or finish. He acknowledges the chin concern but thinks Kelleher is not the guy to exploit it.
Lucrative James picks Brian Kelleher as the underdog. After rewatching Cody Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones, he saw Cody was hesitant, got wobbled, and taken down multiple times. He believes Cody's chin issues could resurface if Kelleher catches him. He acknowledges Kelleher's age (37) and two-fight losing streak but thinks Cody is not a minus 250 fighter.
The host is high on Kelleher as a plus 185 underdog, questioning how Garbrandt can be such a heavy favorite given his recent tentative style and chin issues. He believes Kelleher's aggression, durability, and grappling edge will be key. He expects Kelleher to crash the pocket, land big shots, and possibly finish Garbrandt. The only concern is Kelleher returning from neck surgery, but he thinks even 70% of Kelleher is enough to pull the upset.
Paul picks Garbrandt, stating that skill for skill, this fight is not competitive. He notes that Garbrandt is much faster on the feet and that Kelleher is not a murderous power puncher. Paul points to Garbrandt's last fight against Trevin Jones where he fought smart and stayed out of trouble. He believes Garbrandt will box Kelleher up and potentially win by decision or TKO.
The Guru picks Cody Garbrandt over Brian Kelleher, noting Kelleher's recent losses and decline. He believes the matchup is designed for Garbrandt to get a KO win on a big card. He predicts Garbrandt will win by TKO in the second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 6 of 17 | 35% | 6 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 6 of 17 | 35% | 3 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Brian Kelleher in a tough, close fight. He notes both fighters are similar busy strikers who can grapple, but gives the edge to Kelleher's experience and physicality at 135 pounds. His main worry is Kelleher's negative striking differential, but he believes if Kelleher brings the same grappling he showed against Kevin Crume or Domingo Pilarte, he gets the win. He expects a razor-thin decision.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by decision. He highlights Bautista's significant size and reach advantages (3-inch height, 5-inch reach), superior striking, and underrated grappling. He notes that Kelleher has been submitted seven times and Bautista has submission skills, but expects the fight to stay standing where Bautista's youth and size will be decisive. He mentions Kelleher's durability (only one KO in 37 fights) but sees Bautista winning a decision.
Cody thinks Bautista is dynamic with good striking and wrestling. He notes Kelleher relies on takedowns and if he can't take Bautista down, he'll be out struck. He expects Bautista to win a decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding nothing to dispute.
The host picks Mario Bautista, noting Brian Kelleher looks old and slow at 35. He believes Bautista has good grappling and won't be exposed there, and that Kelleher struggles against step-up competition. He predicts a third-round TKO for Bautista, citing Bautista's training with Sean O'Malley and other top bantamweights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 19 | 5% | 1 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 1 of 19 | 5% | 1 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 21 of 29 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 1:27 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 19 | 5% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 1 of 19 | 5% | 0 of 13 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Brian Kelleher | 18 of 26 | 69% | 9 of 15 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar confidently, calling him a clear pick and a parlay piece. He highlights Umar's fantastic chain wrestling and constant pressure. He notes Kelleher doesn't have one-punch KO power, so even if Umar is hittable, it won't matter. He mentions the betting line movement favoring Umar.
Big Brady picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by submission in the second round. He is very high on Umar's skills, noting his fast striking, good wrestling, and scrambling ability. Brady points out that Kelleher has been submitted six times and has poor takedown defense (60%). He believes Umar will be able to take Kelleher down and submit him, especially given Kelleher's tendency to give up takedowns and go for guillotines. Brady also notes Umar's youth and potential for improvement.
Cody is extremely high on Umar, calling him a future champion. He praises Umar's striking, takedown entries, and pace. He bet the under 2.5 rounds at +130, expecting an early finish. Cody notes Kelleher's only path is a guillotine, but Umar is too well-rounded and will dominate everywhere.
Daniel Levi picks Umar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He praises Umar's kicking game and grappling, and believes Kelleher will be outmatched. He notes that Kelleher is a tough veteran but Umar is too much. He predicts Umar will win a decision, possibly a dominant one.
Nurmagomedov is a well-rounded fighter with excellent striking and grappling. Kelleher's only path is a knockout, but Nurmagomedov will use his kicks to maintain distance and then take the fight to the ground where he is dominant. Kelleher is durable and has good submission defense, but Nurmagomedov should control the fight and win a decision. The minus 675 is too steep for parlays, but Nurmagomedov via decision is a solid prop.
Paul echoes Cody's sentiment, calling Umar the complete package with elite wrestling and striking. He notes Umar's performance against Sergey Morozov was dominant and his pace is relentless. Paul believes Kelleher's only chance is to catch Umar in a guillotine, but Umar is too skilled. He plans to include Umar in a parlay with Colby.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov over Brian Kelleher, calling it a no-brainer. He highlights Nurmagomedov's dominant win over Sergey Morozov and sees him as a rising threat in the bantamweight division. He criticizes Kelleher's recent performance against Kevin Croom, noting he looked slow and old. He predicts Nurmagomedov will out-strike Kelleher early, take his back, and secure a rear-naked choke in the second round, similar to his debut finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 1 | 38 of 77 | 49% | 67 of 123 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 6:26 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 60 of 174 | 34% | 83 of 206 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 1 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 15 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 33 of 88 | 37% | 43 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 22 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 22 of 72 | 30% | 34 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 30 of 54 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Kevin Croom | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 38 of 77 | 49% | 25 of 58 | 12 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 58 | 3 of 5 | 10 of 14 |
| Kevin Croom | 60 of 174 | 34% | 36 of 141 | 11 of 16 | 13 of 17 | 58 of 168 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 26 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Croom | 33 of 88 | 37% | 17 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 32 of 84 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 14 of 25 | 56% | 8 of 15 | 5 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Kevin Croom | 22 of 72 | 30% | 14 of 61 | 5 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 13 of 23 | 56% | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
| Kevin Croom | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady notes the significant age and reach advantage for Croom, who is 26 and has a 5-inch reach edge. He praises Croom's wrestling and grappling, and expects him to exploit Kelleher's 59% takedown defense. He predicts Croom will win a decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher is dangerous with submissions off his back.
Cody picks Kakhramonov, highlighting his wrestling, size, and cardio. He notes Kelleher's wrestling won't be effective and Kakhramonov's striking is solid. He expects Kakhramonov to win by decision or TKO. He mentions Kakhramonov's bright future.
Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher, noting that Croom took the fight on two weeks' notice and tends to fade as fights progress. He acknowledges Croom's dangerous guillotine early, but believes Kelleher's durability and cardio will allow him to take over in later rounds. Levi also mentions Kelleher's improved grappling, as seen in his last fight against Domingo Pilarte where he used takedowns to control the fight.
The host picks Brian Kelleher, citing his veteran experience and takedown defense against the grappler Kakaromanov. He expects Kelleher to stuff takedowns and land big shots on the feet, eventually knocking out Kakaromanov. The host notes Kakaromanov's striking is still developing and that Kelleher's power and pressure will be too much. He also mentions the under 2.5 rounds as a good bet.
Paul picks Kakhramonov, citing his impressive debut, wrestling base, and size advantage. He notes Kelleher's path is a guillotine, but Kakhramonov's wrestling should nullify that. He expects Kakhramonov to win via decision or late TKO. He calls -155 a fair price.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Croom (Saidyokub Kakhramonov) to win by third-round submission. He trusts Croom's stand-up and grappling awareness, noting that he handled Trevin Jones well and has good takedown defense. He believes Kelleher will struggle to get takedowns and will slow down as the fight goes on, leading to a desperate shot that Croom will capitalize on with a guillotine or D'Arce choke. He predicts Croom will defend takedowns early, then submit Kelleher in the third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 28 of 40 | 70% | 236 of 279 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 12:49 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 117 of 159 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 68 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 35 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 53 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:08 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:29 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 115 of 126 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:51 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 55 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 28 of 40 | 70% | 24 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 37 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 3 of 11 | 27% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 13 of 19 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 18 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brian Kelleher | 4 of 8 | 50% | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Brian Kelleher | 11 of 13 | 84% | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 |
| Domingo Pilarte | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Brian Kelleher, citing a massive gap in level of competition. He notes Kelleher has fought and lost to top bantamweights, while Pilarte has been dominated by lower-level fighters. He believes Kelleher is the better striker and grappler, despite Pilarte's reach advantage. He predicts a third-round knockout.
Cody picks Kelleher, expecting him to win inside the distance. He notes Kelleher's guillotine threat but worries about the reach disadvantage and weight cut. He believes Kelleher's superior striking and wrestling will be enough.
Kelleher is the much better striker with good volume and leg kicks. Pilarte has rudimentary striking, poor cardio, and has been close to being finished in recent fights. Kelleher's guillotine threat will deter takedowns. I'm picking Kelleher inside the distance, likely by knockout in the second round.
Paul picks Kelleher, citing his durability and better striking and wrestling. He notes Pilarte's weight cut issues and long layoff, and believes Kelleher can avoid Pilarte's submissions. However, he is not fully confident due to Kelleher's weight cut complaints.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher to win by guillotine choke in the first round. He criticizes Pilarte as a weight bully with a weak chin and poor cardio. He expects Kelleher to rock Pilarte with hooks, then catch him in a guillotine when Pilarte shoots for a single leg. He emphasizes Kelleher's toughness and finishing ability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brian Kelleher | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brian Kelleher | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ray Rodriguez | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Kelleher, citing his durability (only one KO loss in 32 fights) and experience. He thinks Kelleher can take a takedown and submit Natividad. He notes Natividad is a brawler who gets hit a lot and has been KO'd in 9 seconds before. He predicts a second-round submission.
Daniel Levi picks Brian Kelleher by guillotine finish. He notes that Kelleher is experienced and tends to beat lower-level opponents, but warns that Kelleher is unreliable as a big favorite. He acknowledges that newcomer Kevin Natividad has power and could upset if Kelleher underestimates him, but ultimately sides with Kelleher's experience.
The host picks Kelleher to win by first-round KO. He cites Kelleher's veteran experience, solid chin, and takedown defense. He notes Natividad's only loss was a 9-second KO and expects Kelleher to land a knockout punch early.
The MMA Guru picks Brian Kelleher, noting that his opponent Kevin Natividad (originally Ray Rodriguez was scheduled but changed) has a padded record with weak competition. He believes Kelleher's experience against top fighters will prevail, and expects a second-round submission. He mentions Kelleher's losses to high-level opponents and his ability to survive early pressure.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Cody Stamann confidently, expecting him to use his wrestling to control Kelleher. He notes Kelleher is dangerous off his back but Stamann's wrestling should neutralize submissions. He predicts a 30-27 decision, though he acknowledges Kelleher's cardio and finishing ability could make it a sweat. He sees Stamann as a parlay piece.
Daniel praises Stamann's discipline, fundamentals, and takedown ability, noting he handed Song Yadong his first loss. He believes Kelleher's wins over lower-level competition don't compare to Stamann's level. He expects Stamann to win a decision by controlling range, using blast doubles, and avoiding Kelleher's guillotine. He calls Stamann underrated and says he earns respect with each fight.
Cody Stamann has better cardio, wrestling, and fight IQ than Brian Kelleher. He can mix his wrestling with striking and take Kelleher down, where he can control him. Kelleher's only paths to victory are a knockout or a guillotine, but Stamann has good head movement and a decent chin. Stamann should implement his game plan and win a decision or possibly get a late finish.
The MMA Guru picks Cody Stamann over Brian Kelleher. He believes Stamann is a top-five worthy bantamweight who has only lost to the best, while Kelleher was dominated by Montel Jackson and Hunter Azure. He predicts Stamann will eventually get a submission finish in round three, though he admits he's rooting for Kelleher.
Fair play to Damon, rocked him and then got the sub with some work.