Career Averages - Nicolas Dalby
Career Averages - Daniel Rodriguez
Nicolas Dalby - Fight History
This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No pick was made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 87 of 140 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 6:29 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 65 of 88 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 5:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 28 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 42 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:55 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 41 | 43% | 34 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 0 | 11 of 18 | 61% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 26 of 63 | 41% | 13 of 41 | 8 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 11 of 40 | 13 of 21 | 2 of 2 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 20 of 34 | 58% | 11 of 23 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 8 of 19 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 5 of 15 | 33% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 7 of 12 | 58% | 3 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 41 | 43% | 11 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 24 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Saygid Izagakhmaev | 11 of 18 | 61% | 8 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Izagakhmaev (-300); Dalby (+240)
Round 1
At the age of 41 and on his first losing streak in years, “Danish Dynamite” Dalby (23-6-1, 2 NC; 7-5-1, 1 NC UFC) knows that his back is against the wall in this welterweight encounter. Despite his lack of success lately, at least he has been competing. This will be the first time One Championship vet Izagakhmaev (22-2, 0-0 UFC) has fought in just about three years, a training partner of new welterweight champ Islam Makhachev. This classic matchup of Denmark vs. Russia will be officiated by referee Lukasz Bosacki, and the bout starts without a fist bump in sight.
Dolby takes the steam out of the Russian engine immediately by crashing forward into his personal space to engage in a clinch. He proceeds to knee Izagakhmaev in the thigh again and again, with short but irritating strikes smacking him on either side. It takes less than a minute in this position for the crowd to turn on these two fighters, even with Izagakhmaev giving back Dalby nearly as many knees as he absorbs. Dalby considers outside trips on both legs, and Izagakhmaev lifts his foot up without concern of getting grounded. Bosacki claps for the two to do more than this, and Dalby transitions to a single-leg takedown attempt. Izagakhmaev stands Dalby up, and there is a partial cup strike from one of the knees that is almost called but Bosacki steps back. As this stalemate continues, Bosacki separates them.
Dalby backs off and pitches a low kick and then one high. He mixes up his targets low and high, keeping Izagakhmaev guessing with his varied offense. Izagakhmaev offers jabs while Dalby is erratically striking him, and he shoots for a takedown that Dalby turns around into his own attempt. Izagakhmaev backs himself to the wall to defend it, and Dalby is glad to engage in this tie-up. Izagakhmaev counters a trip attempt to hurl Dalby to his back, and he lands in three-quarter mount. Dalby posts off his right arm in hopes of escaping, and Izagakhmaev wraps him up and drills him in the chest with a knee. Dalby works his way back upright and turns Izagakhmaev’s back to the fence, and clinch strikes from both sides are where this grueling round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
The round begins with a Dalby head kick attempt. This opens Izagakhmaev up to blocking and charging ahead so he can hit a clean takedown within seconds. Dalby grabs the fence to pull himself up to his seat, and he works his way to his feet methodically without taking any noteworthy damage. Dalby huffs and puffs to stand up and turn Izagakhmaev to the fence, taking a knee or two to the body but giving them right back. Dalby stalls out the Russian again in the clinch, kneeing him regularly and taking a few back. Izagakhmaev drops down to pursue a double-leg takedown, and even with Dalby sprawling correctly, Izagakhmaev still manages to put Dalby on his seat for a moment. Dalby pops right back up, and he thwarts the mat return effort and turns Izagakhmaev’s back to the fence again. Dalby firmly embraces the grind, holding Izagakhmaev there until Izagakhmaev is tired of being stuck against the fence.
Dalby tries to take the fight down in the open cage, and Izagakhmaev uses that against him and manages to not only control Dalby, but actually take his back in the process. Izagakhmaev secures a body triangle around the waist and starts to fish for chokes. Dalby uses a two-on-one grip on the Russian’s right hand to prevent anything from coming together. After holding steady in this position for a while, “Lokomotivo” twists out at the right moment to turn over and find himself in Izagakhmaev’s guard. Dalby rains down punches and elbows in hopes of turning the momentum of the match in his favor and possibly swaying the judges, doing so until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Round 3
The welterweights wade towards one another, and Dalby once more fires off a head kick to close the distance. He uses this kick and a subsequent right hand to get up close and personal with the Russian to re-engage his clinch. Dalby uses his knees in the clinch to work Izagakhmaev over, and he stops Izagakhmaev from getting off a takedown. Izagakhmaev breaks free for a second, only for Dalby to jam him up again. Once more, Izagakhmaev gains some space, and he puts a one-two on the chin of the Danish man. Dalby loops a head kick at him and tries to tie him up in the center of the cage, succeeding in doing so to put the Russian on the wire. Both fighters land a few solid clinch strikes, and Dalby keeps after Izagakhmaev with heavy pressure.
Izagakhmaev look to turn the tables with a takedown shot, and Dalby sprawls and puts his back to the fence for defense. Dalby fights off the multiple attempts and allows himself to hit his seat so he can circle around and grab Izagakhmaev from behind. Izagakhmaev gets out of that position and pursues a double, and Dalby knees him square in the face. Izagakhmaev drops down to a knee so that he does not take more of those, and Dalby thinks about a front choke but does not have the horsepower to get it. Dalby dirty boxes Izagakhmaev up until Izagakhmaev breaks off, and Dalby meanders after him, swarming him with labored offense. Dalby’s swings and knees may be off-kilter, but they are landing while Izagakhmaev is not. They lob strikes at one another until the round ends, and when the final horn blares, Izagakhmaev rips out his mouthpiece and tosses it to the floor in frustration.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Saygid Izagakhmaev via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Saygid Izagakhmaev (Side Gig) to dominate Nicolas Dalby. He notes Izagakhmaev is a powerful striker with patient pressure and explosive power, plus effective wrestling. Dalby, an aging karate-style striker, is hittable and has low takedown accuracy. Angelo sees this as a showcase fight for the prospect, expecting Izagakhmaev to finish or drown Dalby with wrestling.
Big Brady picks Saygid Izagakhmaev (Kakhramonov) by decision, citing his well-rounded skills and Dalby's age (41) and recent knockout loss. He expects Kakhramonov to land big shots, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, though a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions the judges may favor Kakhramonov.
Cody picks Saygid Izagakhmaev, noting his youth and wrestling. He believes Dalby is old and has declined, and that Izagakhmaev can take him down and control him. Cody thinks the location in Qatar favors Izagakhmaev.
Connor agrees, picking Dalby. He notes that Izagakhmaev's game is not pretty and he has technical gaps. He says Dalby knows how he wins fights and is committed to pressure. He thinks Izagakhmaev could blast Dalby off his feet, but he knows what to expect from Dalby and it's a brutally hard fight.
Lucrative James picks Nicolas Dalby as an underdog, questioning Izagakhmaev's high odds. He notes Dalby's toughness and experience, and Izagakhmaev's long layoff and submission loss. He believes Dalby can win a decision or even finish. He sees value in the underdog.
Izagakhmaev is a Dagestani wrestler with a smothering style, but he hasn't competed in three years. Dalby is durable and has a cardio edge, making the fight close. The prediction is Izagakhmaev by decision, but a sprinkle on Dalby at plus odds is considered due to the wide line.
Paul picks Saygid Izagakhmaev, citing his wrestling and youth. He notes that Dalby is 41 and has looked washed. Paul believes Izagakhmaev's takedowns and control will be too much.
The MMA Guru picks Saygid Izagakhmaev over Nicolas Dalby, citing Izagakhmaev's wicked submission game and experience in One FC. He notes Dalby's recent KO loss and age. He believes Izagakhmaev's ability to go to decisions and his prime age (31) will be too much for Dalby. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.
Zane picks Dalby despite his age, noting that Izagakhmaev has been inactive for three years and lost to Carlson Harris and Elias Silverio. He says Dalby is a tough, pressure fighter who makes opponents miserable. He worries that the Randy Brown loss might be the beginning of the end, but Dalby has shown remarkable resilience.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 1 | 54 of 114 | 47% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 1 | 26 of 74 | 35% | 40 of 90 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 26 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 1 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:22 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 1 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 35 | 31% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Randy Brown | 54 of 114 | 47% | 45 of 103 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 54 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 26 of 74 | 35% | 12 of 52 | 1 of 3 | 13 of 19 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Randy Brown | 22 of 52 | 42% | 19 of 48 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 15 of 39 | 38% | 6 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 15 | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Randy Brown | 32 of 62 | 51% | 26 of 55 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 35 | 31% | 6 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-238), Dalby (+195)
Round 1
A clash of well-traveled welterweights keeps the main card pushing. Looking to get back in the win column, Brown (19-6, 13-6 UFC) will have to outlast the ultra-durable Dane Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC; 7-4-1, 1 NC UFC) as the latter has never been finished. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready should this go the full duration, and he commences the nonsense-free bout as Brown sprints at his opponent without a glove touch in sight. Brown pulls back before crashing into his opponent, and he repositions himself to his preferred distant striking range with significant reach in his favor on the hands and legs. He uses those long arms to set up jabs and stay away from Dalby’s reaching left hook, but the slapping kick from Dalby is effective on the front leg. He goes for it two more times before having to reset and absorb a right hand on the chin. Dalby gets off with another kick, and Brown freezes him with a clubbing right hook. The Dane gathers himself and slings back, but the only one that lands is his low kick on the calf. Brown leaves himself wide open and is skipped with a left hand on the temple. Frustrated by the strike, “Rude Boy” puts everything he has into a left and a vicious right hand, not only staggering Brown but completely shattering his nose like Marsha and the football. Eternally tough, Dalby manages to bounce off the fencing and swing back, but he is compromised from a damage and breathing perspective. Brown does not go for broke, instead picking his shots carefully, and he inflicts further harm and swells up Dalby’s left eye. Dalby complains about an eye poke, and Peterson tells Brown to not leave his fingers outstretched. Brown acknowledges this and wings a right hand, only to get belted with a massive hook that knocks him off his feet. Dalby pounces, blood pouring from his destroyed nose, and he works Brown over with short ground strikes. Dalby uses his arm to control Brown, and he drops down one more elbow before the bell. The doctors are quick to assess Dalby’s condition, and they appear to partially reset his beak while tending to it. It probably will not stay that way for long when getting punched again in the next round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Round 2
Dalby is good to go, giving Peterson a thumbs-up even as his left eye is nearly closed. He is fired up, rushing after “Rude Boy” with swarming punches and swinging kicks. Brown flicks out jabs and front kicks, allowing Dalby to buzz past him, and he punctuates a combo with a hard body kick. Dalby strikes the front leg and comes up short with an overhand right, and Brown continues to pepper the face with jabs and a mean-spirited front kick. Brown’s jab keeps Dalby at bay until Dalby has had enough of taking them, walking through a knee to the body and launching a huge right hand. Brown bounces off the fence, in trouble but still in the fight, and he separates and backpedals. Dalby continues crashing towards his opponent, launching big right hands that force Brown to take desperate measures to stay out of danger. Brown grabs hold of Dalby in a brief clinch to turn him around and his back to the wall, and he measures his target with a step-in knee and a short but sweet right hand directly on the jaw that buckles Dalby’s knees. Dalby recognizes this and bounces on them to try to shake it off, and Brown uncorks a nasty right hand on the jaw that hurts “Danish Dynamite” badly. Dalby uses the fence behind him to stay upright, and Brown waits for Dalby to stand straight up and smashes him in the face with a ferocious overhand right and a speedy left to follow. Dalby not only takes them on the chin but fires back with his own short salvo, catching Brown but taking some punishment on the way in. The 40-year-old has to take a second to step back and assess his condition, and he evades a massive uppercut by a matter of millimeters. Brown keeps swinging, ignoring anything coming back his direction and unloading a nuclear missile of a right hand that explodes on the temple and puts Dalby down once and for all. Brown walks away, saluting his fallen adversary, while Peterson rushes in along with a doctor to check on Dalby who is crumpled in a heap. “Knockout of the Year,” you have a new contender as Dalby had never been finished as a professional and he is laying down face-first in a pool of his own blood. What an incredible knockout, concluding a titanic brawl that will remain on highlight reels for years to come. Dalby comes to, and he is able to applaud Brown for his handiwork.
The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Nicolas Dalby R2 1:39 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.
Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.
Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.
The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.
The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.
Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 68 of 134 | 50% | 99 of 173 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 0 | 0 | 6:17 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 66 of 134 | 49% | 123 of 195 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 40 of 66 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 31 of 58 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 37 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 31 of 53 | 58% | 48 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 22 of 45 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:18 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rinat Fakhretdinov | 68 of 134 | 50% | 53 of 113 | 10 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 49 of 109 | 19 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 66 of 134 | 49% | 36 of 96 | 25 of 33 | 5 of 5 | 38 of 95 | 28 of 39 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 27 of 52 | 51% | 21 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 17 of 41 | 41% | 6 of 27 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 11 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 24 of 46 | 52% | 17 of 36 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 14 of 34 | 10 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 31 of 53 | 58% | 17 of 34 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 33 | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rinat Fakhretdinov | 17 of 36 | 47% | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 40 | 45% | 13 of 35 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fakhretdinov (-355), Dalby (+280)
Round 1
The welterweights set up in orthodox stance and go right at one another, with referee Thomas Fan looking on. They exchange kicks at range before Dalby walks through a flurry of punches to shove Fakhretdinov into the fence. Dalby throws knees from the outside while Fakhretdinov answers with knees up the middle. Fakhretdinov gets off the cage and shucks Dalby away from him, and they go back to kickboxing at range. Dalby flicks a kick up top that is blocked, then a question mark kick. Fakhretdinov tags Dalby with a pair of punches, then changes levels for a single-leg. He hoists the leg and Dalby hops on one foot while continuing to punch the head. Fakhretdinov drives him all the way across the cage before losing the single-leg. He pushes Dalby into the cage, then gets reversed. Fakhretdinov shucks Dalby off of him and nails him with a single punch that drops Dalby to his knees. Dalby pops back up, but he’s hurt, and Fakhretdinov pushes him to the fence. They disengage and Fakhretdinov hits him with an elbow. Fakhretdinov lands a switch knee to the gut before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Round 2
Dalby scores first, with a low calf kick. Dalby switches stances, and is backed off by a punching combo from Fakhretdinov. Fakhretdinov gets him to the fence, then changes levels and drives him to the canvas. Dalby gets right back up, his back against the fence. They break off and return to the middle of the cage. Dalby initiates the clinch and shoves Fakhretdinov to the cage. They exchange short strikes on the inside. Dalby releases the clinch and nails Fakhretdinov with a nice right hand. They move back towards the center of the Octagon, and Dalby marches forward, landing a kick and a pair of punches, then another kick. Dalby backs Fakhretdinov into the fence and holds him there with underhooks. Dalby digs his head under the chin of Fakhretdinov and hits him with knees to the thighs. They separate and Fakhretdinov lands a one-two, then changes levels for a smooth double-leg. He drops Dalby to his seat at the base of the fence, lacing the legs. He can’t flatten Dalby out, and they return to their feet seconds before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Dalby flicks out a jab, but Fakhretdinov wastes no time in changing levels and running him to the fence. Fakhretdinov tries to lock his hands and pick Dalby up, but Dalby has an underhook and keeps his hips back. They break away from the fence and Dalby grabs a front headlock, then lands a single punch before Fakhretdinov launches another double-leg. Dalby tries to hit an inside switch, but can’t get it. Fakhretdinov has his arms around the waist of the kneeling Dalby, working to finish the takedown as Dalby tries to stand. Halfway into the round, Dalby gets to his feet in a wide-leg stance against the fence, and he separates. Dalby wades forward with punches, and Fakhretdinov drops for another takedown. He gets Dalby to his seat against the fence, but Dalby gets right back up and gets on Fakhretdinov’s back. Fakhretdinov escapes and runs Dalby back to the cage. Dalby reverses the position and throws knees to the thighs of Fakhretdinov. Under a minute left and Dalby separates, then tags Fakhretdinov with a head kick at short range. They swing away at short range until the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Nicolas Dalby via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
Angelo picks Rinat, citing his phenomenal non-stop wrestling and power. He notes Rinat gassed in his last fight after chasing the finish, but still dominated the first two rounds. He thinks Dalby is hitable and will be taken down repeatedly. He acknowledges Dalby's win over Bonfim was more about Bonfim's cardio than Dalby's skill. He plans to spend $9,200 on Rinat in DraftKings.
Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov confidently, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Dalby's 60% takedown defense and that fighters like Claudia Silva and Tim Means have controlled him. Brady expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision due to Dalby's toughness, but a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Fakhretdinov's fantasy score under 94.5.
Cody picks Fakhretdinov but is hesitant due to the price and Dalby's comeback ability. He notes Fakhretdinov's wrestling and power, but also his cardio issues and Dalby's experience and durability. He expects Fakhretdinov to win early but warns of a potential fade.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win a decision, expecting him to take the first two rounds with wrestling pressure. He notes Dalby's third-round resurgence but believes Fakhretdinov's takedowns and grinding style will secure a win. He acknowledges Dalby's cardio and finishing ability but sees Fakhretdinov controlling the fight early.
Jacob picks Rinat but does not trust him due to his mentality—he was happy with a draw after nearly getting finished. Jacob worries Rinat will try to knock Dalby out instead of wrestling, which could lead to trouble. He compares Rinat's attitude to Loopy Godinez, saying it's not a killer mentality. However, he acknowledges Rinat should win if he sticks to wrestling.
JP is confident in Fakhretdinov, citing his 22-2 record with 11 KOs and 7 subs, and notes Dalby's tendency to go to decision (12-4 in decisions). He expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision. Brevan agrees, highlighting Fakhretdinov's strong wrestling base and ability to control Dalby on the ground. He suggests a prop bet on Fakhretdinov by decision if the odds are plus money. Both see Fakhretdinov as the clear winner.
Paul does not make a winner pick but suggests Dalby as a live bet. He notes Fakhretdinov will likely get takedowns but may gas, and Dalby's ability to get up and outwork him. He prefers to watch and potentially bet Dalby live.
The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Nicolas Dalby, after initially considering Dalby. He rewatched Dalby's fight with Gabriel Bonfim and was less impressed, noting that Dalby was held down for significant periods. He believes Fakhretdinov's patient top game will be effective, as he doesn't chase submissions and is content to hold opponents down. He contrasts this with Bonfim's scrambling, which allowed Dalby to escape. He also notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle as impressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 39 of 91 | 42% | 47 of 103 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 1 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 64 of 128 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:27 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 35 of 68 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 0 | 16 of 47 | 34% | 22 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 9 of 31 | 29% | 12 of 35 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:47 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 1 | 37 of 66 | 56% | 42 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 39 of 91 | 42% | 27 of 77 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 10 | 32 of 71 | 3 of 9 | 4 of 11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 53 of 113 | 46% | 41 of 96 | 7 of 11 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 76 | 25 of 33 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 30 of 60 | 50% | 18 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 11 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 16 of 47 | 34% | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 45 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 9 of 31 | 29% | 9 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 23 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Gabriel Bonfim | 37 of 66 | 56% | 30 of 55 | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 31 | 24 of 31 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-625), Dalby (+455)
Round 1
On Friday morning, two Bonfim brothers were expected to be competing on this lineup. After elder brother Ismael missed weight by a boat anchor, Gabriel Bonfim (15-0, 2-0 UFC) will be the one repping the family tonight. Putting the family reputation as well as his spotless record and 100% finish rate on the line, Bonfim draws an extremely tough test in Dalby (22-4-1, 2 NC; 6-3-1, 1 NC UFC). While arguably the greatest fighter from Denmark to compete in MMA—Martin Kampmann may disagree—Dalby is also known from having one of the wildest fights in MMA history against Ross Houston in Cage Warriors, when so much blood was spilled on the vinyl cage floor, referee Marc Goddard had to call the title fight off in the third round. This “Just Bleed” mentality comes with him in this co-main event, and Bonfim will have his hands full here. Referee Jason Herzog is cool and collected, but inside he’s amped up and ready, and the fighters are as well. Bonfim would rather get right to business, and wastes no time with a glove touch. Instead, the Brazilian walks straight forward and busts Dalby in the chops with two big punches. The two proceed to go wild with big strikes, and Bonfim connects a number of powerful low kicks to give Dalby pause. Dalby presses forward, gathering a full head of steam, and he plows Bonfim to the fence and hunts for a trip. Bonfim defends himself against the fencing, and he splits off and resets. Dalby doubles up on a jab and follows with an overhand right, and Bonfim just misses with a head kick. The Brazilian hammers the lead wheel with a kick, and he aims a few more kicks to the same target until Dalby switches stances briefly. Dalby powers forward, keeping his high-pressure game going, and he gets knocked back with a one-two and a kick. Bonfim digs a kick to the body and reaches with a left hand, and he intercepts a countering Dalby with a chopping kick. Dalby pushes forward and just misses with a head kick, and Bonfim strings three jabs together in rapid succession. Dalby attacks the lead leg, and Bonfim snatches him up and body locks him to the ground. Landing in half guard, Bonfim has over two minutes to work should he keep it horizontal. Bonfim skips over to the side, and Dalby raises one leg up high in hopes of bucking Bonfim off of him. Bonfim slowly works with elbows, drawing a tiny bit of blood with his strikes as he isolates Dalby’s right arm. Bonfim lets it go so he can move to full mount, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke by slithering one arm beneath the neck. Dalby defends against it, but Bonfim remains in dominant position despite Dalby’s movement. Bonfim elects to move to the side so he can batter Dalby with elbows, and Dalby defends most but not all of them. Bonfim opens up an additional cut on his opponent, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Round 2
Dalby opens up the second round just as aggressive as before, with his pace trying to take some of the wind out of Bonfim’s sails. Bonfim counters that with a few powerful punches, and he scoops the Danish fighter up off the ground and slams him to the mat. Dalby sits up, and Bonfim considers a guillotine choke but lets it go. When Dalby partially stands, Bonfim sucks his hips out and deposits him to the ground with a single. Dalby defends with a guillotine choke, and Bonfim welcomes this so that he can set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Dalby does not fall for the trap, and he releases the grip in time so that he does not get choked out. Bonfim does manage to claim side control in this position, until Dalby rolls all the way over and goes after a double. Bonfim latches his arms around the neck for a brabo choke setup, and he hops over to the back. Dalby deftly scrambles to get back to his feet, and he stands and pushes Bonfim to the wire. Bonfim welcomes him with an elbow, and Dalby throws back and continues plodding forward. Dalby maintains his suffocating pressure, and Bonfim shoots for a single that comes up short. Dalby comes up high with a pair of elbows, and the two start slugging it out. Dalby drives his knee on the chin a few times, and he ignores the strikes that belt him in the face so he can fire back fearlessly. Bonfim leans his back to the wall, and Dalby is on him like a cheap suit. Bonfim’s gas tank begins to fade as his body language starts to show he is struggling, while Dalby is ready and rearing to go for several more minutes. Bonfim drops to his knees for a single, and Bonfim shells up against the fencing as Dalby lays into him with knees and elbows. Bonfim lets loose with uppercuts, only for Dalby to completely no-sell them and further use his cardio and durability as a weapon.
A ferocious knee in a series from the Danish fighter smashes right into the jaw, and Bonfim collapses to the canvas. Dalby finishes the job with a number of punishing left hands, forcing Herzog to step in and wave the fight off.
“Danish Dynamite” has exploded, blowing up the massive favorite while detonating the unbeaten record of the highly touted Brazilian finisher.
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Gabriel Bonfim R2 4:33 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to grapple early and get the win. He notes Dalby is tough and could take it to a decision, which would be new for Bonfim. He likes the Bonfim brother parlay. He thinks the UFC knows what they're doing with this matchup.
Big Brady picks Gabriel Bonfim to win by first-round submission. He praises Bonfim's striking and opportunistic submission game, noting he subs opponents when they shoot for takedowns. He mentions Dalby has never been finished officially but was finished by Jesse Ronson (who popped for PEDs). He expects a club-and-sub sequence, with Bonfim knocking down Dalby and snatching a submission.
Daniel Levi picks Gabriel Bonfim, impressed by his undefeated record, 15 finishes, and versatile submission game including guillotines, rear-naked chokes, and triangles. He notes Bonfim's athleticism, explosiveness, and willingness to strike, but also acknowledges concerns about his striking defense and unproven cardio. Levi sees Dalby as a tough veteran who can turn fights into dogfights and drag Bonfim into deep water, but believes Bonfim's youth and tenacity will prevail. He is not laying the -600 chalk and plans to stay away from betting this fight, possibly poking at props.
James predicts Bonfim will run through Dalby, likely in round one. He notes that Dalby has been knocked out and submitted early by Jesse Ronson (overturned to NC) and sees a similar outcome here. He acknowledges that if Bonfim doesn't finish early, Dalby has a chance to come back in later rounds, but he believes Bonfim is a dangerous striker and opportunistic submission artist. He picks Bonfim to win, probably by submission in round one.
Bonfim is one of the best prospects, with great striking that sets up his submission game. He hurts opponents and then capitalizes on desperation takedowns to lock in chokes. Dalby is older and has faced lower-level competition recently. Bonfim will hurt Dalby on the feet, forcing a bad takedown attempt, and finish via submission inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim over Nicolas Dalby. He emphasizes Bonfim's athleticism, size, and finishing ability, predicting a first-round submission. The Guru notes Dalby needs to be perfect for three rounds to win, while Bonfim can end it quickly. He references Bonfim's dominant win over Trevin Giles and his signature guillotine choke. He predicts a first-round guillotine.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 86 of 140 | 61% | 104 of 158 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 6:36 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 57 of 88 | 64% | 70 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 24 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:21 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 18 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 48 of 69 | 69% | 58 of 79 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 86 of 140 | 61% | 41 of 84 | 36 of 43 | 9 of 13 | 43 of 91 | 36 of 41 | 7 of 8 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 57 of 88 | 64% | 34 of 58 | 21 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 47 of 78 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 21 of 44 | 47% | 7 of 25 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 11 | 17 of 40 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 14 of 26 | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 17 of 27 | 62% | 9 of 17 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 13 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 10 of 14 | 71% | 5 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 48 of 69 | 69% | 25 of 42 | 23 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 38 | 24 of 27 | 4 of 4 |
| Muslim Salikhov | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 23 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-190), Dalby (+160)
Round 1
A potential all-action welterweight tilt will kick off the main card, as blood-and-guts Dalby (21-4-1, 2 NC; 5-3-1, 1 NC UFC) stands across the cage from “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-3, 6-2 UFC). This will be the eldest bout on the billing, as Dalby is over 38 while Salikhov just turned 39, so the clock is absolutely ticking for these two 170-pound competitors in hopes of making a run. They do not plan on touching gloves, and referee Mark Smith sits back to observe the proceedings. Dalby slings a high kick early, and Salikhov replies with a solid calf kick as if he had watched the last bout and wanted to replicate that success. Dalby goes for another head kick that is blocked, and he puts a jab in the Russian’s face. Salikhov rifles out a left hand, and he absorbs a kick on the inside of his knee. Salikhov aims a front kick to the chest, and Dalby is quick to kick low again. Salikhov scores a pair of dangerous leg kicks, and they trade punches until Dalby decides to give Salikhov a taste of his own medicine with a kick. Salikhov reaches out with a left hook, and he pushes out with a front kick. The two trade leg kicks, and Dalby ducks a Superman punch right in time. Salikhov spins suddenly with a back fist, and Dalby raises his guard and takes a clean spinning back kick right after to the chest. Dalby picks at the lead leg with a kick, and they both go after one another with heavy right hooks. Dalby aims a shin to the midsection, and he walks into a solid right hand. When Dalby tries to kick low, Salikhov stands him up with an overhand right. Both men crash together with thudding fists, and Salikhov reaches his man in a subsequent strike. “King of Kung Fu” beats Dalby to the punch, and he clips him with a left hand to stagger Dalby. Dalby gathers his thoughts and retaliates with a right hand and a huge head kick. Salikhov is damaged from the blow, and he pursues a takedown to drag Dalby to the ground to recover. The two both stand up in the clinch, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Round 2
The welterweights come together in the center of the cage, and Dalby initiates offense with a head kick that is blocked. Salikhov replies with a front kick, leading Dalby into a charge that pushes him against the cage to the wall. Salikhov turns him around, and Dalby reaches him with high knees even with his back against the fence. Salikhov breaks off, and he defends a body kick and spins with a back kick to the midsection. The two measure one another with one-twos, and Dalby ducks straight into a knee when pursuing a takedown. Salikhov keeps his back to the wire as he stays upright, and Dalby lifts up a high knee. This is the worst thing Dalby can do, as Salikhov grabs hold of it, turns Dalby around and deposits him to the canvas. Dalby calmly works his way back up with the fence behind him, and he spams short knees to the side. Dalby wrenches the Dagestan native to the mat, and he moves straight into mount. Salikhov turns to the side and ends up giving up his back, and Dalby gets a hook in and drapes his arm around the chest. Salikhov turns enough to free himself from a hook, and Dalby traps Salikhov’s left leg while turning the torso. Dalby nearly has a twister set up, and he threatens with a choke that transitions from a rear-naked choke to an arm-triangle choke. This is a means to an end, as Dalby steps over into half guard and looks for ground-and-pound. Salikhov explodes back to his feet with a minute to go, and Dalby presses on the Russian when standing up and knees him a few times. Dalby fishes for a trip with his foot, and Salikhov breaks away with an elbow. Dalby chases after him with a head kick, and Salikhov replies with one and falls to his knees. The round ends as Dalby jumps on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Dalby picks up where he left off, with a head kick attempt. Salikhov backs away and holds his arms high to block it and one that follows, but he cannot stop a few punches from Dalby. The Danish fighter attempts a third head kick, and he races forward to either change levels or settle for a clinch. Salikhov looks to muscle out, but Dalby turns him back to the wall, as Salikhov appears frustrated. Dalby grinds and works the body with several active knees, until Salikhov breaks away and gets to striking range. Dalby rushes after him and spears the Russian with a right hand and looks for a head kick. Salikhov is not fazed by the blows, and he jams his foot into Dalby’s midsection. Dalby punches his way into a clinch, but he cannot hold Salikhov there for long. Salikhov escapes, and he rushes backwards. Dalby practically sprints at him, tossing up a head kick and a right hand before engaging in the tie-up once more. When Salikhov drags them away from the cage, Dalby elbows him several times before kneeing him and pushing him to the fencing. Dalby slips a punch over the top and does not lose his clinch grip, and they both give one another mean elbows on the chin. Dalby slings a high kick, and he re-engages Salikhov before dragging him to his knee. Dalby jumps into mount with a little under 15 seconds left, and he beats down on Salikhov with hammerfists and an elbow until the final horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Muslim Salikhov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo has a slight lean to Muslim Salikhov because he has better wrestling, but he calls this a 50/50 fight. Both are older strikers with traditional martial arts backgrounds. Dalby's 65% takedown defense could be a factor. Angelo is waiting for props to drop and is not betting the moneyline.
Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision, but he is low on both fighters. He criticizes Salikhov for low volume, poor cardio, and being 39 years old. Dalby is slightly younger and showed high volume in his last fight against Warlley Alves, landing 119 strikes. Brady thinks Dalby can push Salikhov against the cage, tire him out, and be more active. He notes Dalby has never been knocked out and is very tough. However, he admits he is very low on both guys and this is not an exciting fight.
Cody has a tough time reading this fight. He notes Salikhov is a low-volume counter puncher with heavy power, and that opponents often freeze up against him. He thinks Dalby's wrestling is not good enough to take Salikhov down, and if Dalby tries to out-volume him, he risks walking into a big shot. Cody leans Salikhov to land the better strikes and possibly get a knockout, but he doesn't want much exposure. He likes Salikhov by knockout at +240.
Connor picks Dalby, citing his grinding approach as effective against a fighter like Salikhov who needs space. He notes that Salikhov has not been tested by wrestling since Alex Garcia, and Dalby's physicality should be a problem. Connor sees Dalby muscling his way to a win.
Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, citing a significant firepower advantage and Salikhov's ability to land damaging shots. He notes Dalby's history of being dropped and his lower volume, while Salikhov can knock him out. He gives the cardio edge to Dalby but thinks Salikhov's power will be decisive. He has a good betting history with Salikhov and plans to bet him as long as the line stays under -200.
Dalby has a speed and athleticism advantage, a good output game, and decent takedowns to mix in. Salikhov is one-dimensional with a kung fu striking style and has shown durability issues. Dalby's awkward striking and volume should outwork Salikhov over three rounds. However, Dalby's durability is a slight concern. Dalby wins by decision.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Dalby's pitter-patter striking won't work against Salikhov, who hits hard. He points out that Dalby has been knocked down by lesser fighters and that Salikhov's power is a real threat. Paul sees Salikhov by knockout at +240 as a potential small bet, though he wishes the price were higher.
The MMA Guru picks Muslim Salikhov over Nicolas Dalby, stating Salikhov is simply better. He notes Dalby lacks finishing potential, submission ability, and great grappling, while Salikhov has momentum and can finish or win a decision. He mentions Dalby was KO'd by Jesse Ronson, and expects Salikhov to catch Dalby with a right hand.
Zane picks Dalby because he believes Dalby's grinding pressure will overwhelm Salikhov. He notes that Salikhov is a sniper who needs time and space, and that Dalby's high output and physicality will not allow that. Zane acknowledges Salikhov could crack Dalby early, but favors Dalby's consistency.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 66 of 144 | 45% | 75 of 153 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 119 of 248 | 47% | 167 of 298 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 35 | 51% | 25 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 35 of 74 | 47% | 51 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 52 of 95 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 30 of 72 | 41% | 30 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Warlley Alves | 0 | 53 of 101 | 52% | 64 of 112 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 66 of 144 | 45% | 45 of 117 | 7 of 12 | 14 of 15 | 62 of 138 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 119 of 248 | 47% | 75 of 195 | 35 of 41 | 9 of 12 | 86 of 212 | 32 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 35 | 51% | 7 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 8 | 16 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 35 of 74 | 47% | 19 of 51 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 6 | 20 of 58 | 15 of 16 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 18 of 37 | 48% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 31 of 73 | 42% | 22 of 62 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 67 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 30 of 72 | 41% | 27 of 66 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Warlley Alves | 53 of 101 | 52% | 34 of 82 | 17 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 41 of 87 | 12 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)
Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.
Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.
Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.
Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.
The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.
Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 46 of 59 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:17 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 45 of 94 | 47% | 61 of 114 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 4:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 25 of 30 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:11 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 10 of 14 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 31 of 57 | 54% | 38 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:58 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 11 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 | 14 of 36 | 38% | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolas Dalby | 11 of 21 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 45 of 94 | 47% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 59 | 16 of 21 | 8 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolas Dalby | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nicolas Dalby | 6 of 10 | 60% | 3 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 31 of 57 | 54% | 21 of 45 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 34 | 15 of 20 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | Nicolas Dalby | 5 of 9 | 55% | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cláudio Silva | 14 of 36 | 38% | 11 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dalby (-250), Silva (+210)
Round 1
The venue isn’t completely full for the first prelim of the card in London, but those who are present seem to be fully engaged. Lukasz Bosacki will be the third man in the cage for this welterweight bout. Silva takes the center of the cage and shoots for a takedown, driving Dalby into the fence. Silva clings to a single leg, but Dalby hops around and maintains his balance while fighting his opponent’s hands. “Hannibal” finally yanks his foe down and passes quickly to full mount. Silva stays heavy on top as Dalby attempts to buck him off. Thus far, those efforts are unsuccessful. Dalby stays active and recaptures half guard, but Silva is still in control. Dalby posts in hopes of standing, but Silva grabs the arm and plants the Dane on his back with time winding down. Silva ends the round on top with mild ground-and-pound, much to the displeasure of the crowd. 10-9 Silva.
Round 2
Silva steps in with a front kick and Dalby responds with a leg kick that makes the Brazilian wobble. Silva has seen enough as he shoots and takes Dalby down near the fence. Dalby gives up his back as he stands, and “Hannibal” secures a body triangle and drags him right back down. Silva looks for openings to slide his arm underneath Dalby’s chin. Dalby resists and is able to turn out of the predicament, setting up in Silva’s full guard. Dalby creates some space and drops a heavy elbow that draws a roar from the London throng. Silva works his way up and eats a right hand. Dalby sprawls on a shot and lands a knee to the head. Silva looks tired as he circles away, but the Brazilian resets and pushes Dalby into the fence. Dalby defends and lands another solid right hand. Dalby is gaining momentum, and he tees off with a head kick and more punches. Dalby shoves Silva into the fence and lands a hard series of knees to the midsection. The tide has turned completely at this point, and Dalby keeps the knees going. Silva is exhausted, holding his hands low. Silva ties up Dalby in the waning seconds and absorbs a knee and a left hook before the horn. 10-9 Dalby.
Round 3
Dalby just misses on a head kick, but a low kick finds the mark. Silva shoots and Dalby defends, shoving “Hannibal” down to the mat with ease. Dalby follows his man down to the mat and sets up in his foe’s full guard. Dalby works to create space for elbows while Silva controls his wrists. Another short elbow lands on the chest of Silva. Dalby drops an elbow and grinds his forearm into Silva’s neck. Silva appears to just be holding on for dear life. One of those elbows appears to have opened a cut on Silva, and blood is dripping on the Octagon floor. Dalby frees himself from guard and stands up. Silva is slow to rise and Dalby lands a glancing head kick. Silva steps in with an elbow, but his offense is mostly slow and fatigued. A left hand lands clean for Dalby. Silva executes a beautiful level change behind a winging hook and gets Dalby down. Dalby attempts an omoplata sweep, and at the very least, it stops Silva from advancing position. After a brief stalemate, a scramble ensues and Silva lands mild ground-and-pound. Dalby is able to scramble back up just before the horn. 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby).
The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Claudio Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Dalby despite acknowledging it's a tough fight with both guys having long layoffs. He notes Dalby is the better striker with real power but is hittable, while Silva has relentless grappling pressure but only 25% takedown accuracy and cardio issues. He believes Dalby's toughness will keep him alive and Silva will gas, allowing Dalby to win.
Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision. He notes that Cláudio Silva is 39, has a poor gas tank, and is essentially 'round one submission or bust.' Dalby is the much better striker and should survive the first round, then pick Silva apart. He also mentions Silva has never been finished and Dalby has never been submitted, so a decision is likely.
Cody picks Nicolas Dalby, calling Silva a bum. He notes Silva has poor cardio, low volume, and is 39 years old. Cody thinks Dalby's cardio and pressure will be too much. He suggests live betting Dalby if he loses the first round but doesn't get submitted. Cody is confident Dalby wins.
Daniel Levi picks Nicolas Dalby, arguing that Cláudio Silva is past his prime at 41-42 years old. He acknowledges Silva's dangerous grappling and striking power in his prime, but believes Dalby's forward pressure and high kicks will be too much. Levi notes that Dalby has a history of surviving early trouble and coming back, and has been competitive with tough opponents.
Dalby should win if he manages his gas tank and keeps the fight standing, but I don't trust him at -250. Silva is a dangerous submission threat and Dalby has a history of sketchy wins. I'm picking Dalby to win but he'll make you sweat for your money.
Paul picks Cláudio Silva by submission at +500, calling it a dogger pass. He doesn't love Silva's stand-up but thinks if Silva can get the fight to the ground, he has a chance. Paul notes Dalby has been submitted before. He is hesitant and will watch weigh-ins.
The MMA Guru picks Nicolas Dalby to win by unanimous decision. He criticizes Cláudio Silva's recent performances, noting Silva looks like a man without testosterone and has shown no skill since 2019. Dalby is a physical athlete who rarely gets finished and can push the pace. The Guru expects Dalby to dominate positional control and win on the feet.
Daniel Rodriguez - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 82 of 173 | 47% | 111 of 207 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 77 of 149 | 51% | 111 of 189 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 40 of 83 | 48% | 40 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 32 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 12 of 28 | 42% | 34 of 51 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Kevin Holland | 2 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 44 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 30 of 62 | 48% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 35 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 82 of 173 | 47% | 53 of 126 | 13 of 22 | 16 of 25 | 60 of 137 | 17 of 27 | 5 of 9 |
| Kevin Holland | 77 of 149 | 51% | 49 of 106 | 13 of 26 | 15 of 17 | 54 of 107 | 6 of 7 | 17 of 35 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 40 of 83 | 48% | 20 of 50 | 6 of 12 | 14 of 21 | 39 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Holland | 29 of 60 | 48% | 12 of 30 | 8 of 19 | 9 of 11 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 12 of 28 | 42% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 21 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Kevin Holland | 31 of 55 | 56% | 27 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 12 of 22 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 27 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 30 of 62 | 48% | 25 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 35 | 12 of 19 | 4 of 8 |
| Kevin Holland | 17 of 34 | 50% | 10 of 25 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 8 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-395), Rodriguez (+310)
Round 1
The busiest athlete in the company these days, Holland (28-13, 1 NC; 15-10, 1 NC UFC) is entering into his fourth fight of the year in the middle of July. Looking for his third win in a row, he tangles with 10th Planet rep Rodriguez (19-5, 9-4 UFC), who is also doing the same. One of their streaks must end in the next three rounds or fewer, and referee Mike Beltran will be the first to know. Possibly a victory or two from reaching the top 10, the welterweights bump fists knowing this could be the start of something significant.
Holland immediately starts talking, asking Rodriguez if he is a winner. Rodriguez ignores him and comes out swinging, hurling his left hook several times at “Trailblazer.” Holland springs out of the way and circles away to not get caught with anything noteworthy, and he stays on the outside slamming kicks to Rodriguez’ front leg. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, and Holland grabs hold of him and turns him around in the clinch. Rodriguez breaks free, and once again he is faced with the taller, longer man reaching his kicks at him. The two get tied up again, and they both let hands fly for a moment. Rodriguez reaches with his left, and he parries a head kick that comes up in a hurry. Holland jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and Rodriguez retaliates with a chopping calf kick. Rodriguez lands a low kick, and Holland recoils his limb and wings it back at his foe. Both fighters attack the body, and then trade low kicks.
Holland tags his foe at the end of a right hand and a quick left, which sets up three more punches over the top. Holland clips Rodriguez with an overhand right, and a foul is ignored as both men just want to trade. Holland turns his hips and busts Rodriguez in the chops with a side kick, and he is quick to have to defend an oncoming Rodriguez who throws hard at him. Both fighters appear to graze the cup with kicks, and Holland rolls with a combo and dings Rodriguez with a right hand on the forehead. The Californian grits his teeth and connects with a left hook that destabilizes his opponent. Holland gets up and rushes backwards to the fence to recover, doing so long enough to get his bearings again. When he reengages, Holland takes a jab on the chin and still manages to get Rodriguez with an elbow. Rodriguez lands a big left, and Holland chains several punches together to get him back. Rodriguez puts hands on the Texan once more, and he blocks a head kick in the nick of time. Two more kicks to the body from “Trailblazer” wrap up the first round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
The welterweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rodriguez aims to the front leg first as Holland tries to check it. Holland defends a combination of punches by trying to tie Rodriguez up, and Rodriguez is able to shuck him off and punch him square in the face. Rodriguez measures a big left hand that rocks “Trailblazer,” who goes down in a heap. Rodriguez jumps on top of his wounded opponent, laying into him with ground-and-pound until he advances to side control. Rather than do anything further on the mat, Rodriguez backs off and makes Holland stand. Holland is quick to shoot for a double, and Rodriguez tosses him aside and bludgeons him with more big hammers. “D-Rod” knocks Holland to his seat a second time, pouncing to get into the guard so he can try to finish the job. Rodriguez passes to half guard, slugging Holland into the face every so often while Holland looks to control the wrist. Holland thinks about a guillotine choke off his back, but Rodriguez punches his way out of it.
Holland tries to isolate an arm for an armbar setup, and Rodriguez breaks out of it and stands. Holland follows him and blasts him in the face with a right hand, only for Rodriguez to tank it and swing back fearlessly. Holland scores hard again with an overhand right, and Rodriguez ignores it and comes back swinging. The Texan ducks under and hits a double, putting Rodriguez flat on his back with about 100 seconds to go. Holland stays tightly pressed on Rodriguez while in half guard, and he attacks the body and head when sitting up. Rodriguez tries to sit up too, and Holland has a trap for him in the form of a slick brabo choke. Rodriguez, the jiu-jitsu practitioner, shakes off the choke but is drilled with a left hand and an elbow. Holland shoots for another takedown, pushing Rodriguez to the fence and falling into a guillotine choke. Holland stands up to get out of it, his face bloodied, and he does not care as he smacks Rodriguez with a jump knee. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The fighters share a last glove touch and get right to business. Rodriguez floats a low kick, darting away when Holland advances with body shots. Rodriguez swipes his way forward with a left to the liver, and he has a one-two bash Holland on the side of the head. Holland whiffs on a right hand up top and a head kick on the same side, and he sways back as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez blitzes his opponent, clacking heads with his opponent on the way in. Rodriguez goes the body, prompting Holland to go straight at him with fists flying. Rodriguez beats the Texan to the punch, until Holland grits his teeth and knocks Rodriguez clean off his feet with a short but nasty uppercut. Rodriguez survives the ground strikes when hitting the ground to stand back up, and Holland wraps up a standing brabo choke. Rodriguez breaks out of it, and Holland attacks with the fury of a thousand suns. Battering Rodriguez with winging punches, jump knees, mean-spirited uppercuts and anything else he can offer, Holland has Rodriguez on the ropes. Rodriguez throws back with bad intentions, and Holland’s knee rocks him to his core.
A desperate Rodriguez tries to take the fight down, and Holland hurls him to his knees and is quick to force a back take. Holland wraps up a rear-naked choke but it is around the side, and Rodriguez is able to slide out of it and push past a triangle choke. Holland uses a high guard to hold on with a triangle choke that is more of a high guard than anything, and Rodriguez grabs the fence to get out of it. Beltran slaps his hands out of the cage grab, and Rodriguez advances to side control and then full mount with a minute to go. Rodriguez starts raining down a bombardment of punches, with Holland pushing off the cage wall with his feet while shelling up to guard his face. Holland rolls all the way over and shoots for a takedown of his own, and Rodriguez defends with a power guillotine choke and pushes Holland over to his back. “D-Rod” reassumes full mount after releasing the choke, sitting up to smack Holland around until time expires. This could have used two more rounds, as the crowd goes wild after 15 titillating minutes of magnificent melee.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Kevin Holland via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, citing his speed, power, and accuracy at welterweight. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a pure boxer with no takedown threat, so Holland's takedown defense won't be tested. He expects Holland to run through Rodriguez.
Big Brady confidently picks Kevin Holland, noting Rodriguez's age (38), recent poor performances, and lack of wrestling. He believes Holland's height, reach, and power will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Rodriguez's prison fight experience as irrelevant.
Connor picks Holland because he is significantly faster than Rodriguez, who appears slower than ever. He notes that Holland always has a high work rate even in his worst performances, while Rodriguez's recent wins have come against equally old and beatable opponents. He sees this as a straightforward win for Holland.
The host sees this as a great stylistic matchup for Holland, expecting him to pick apart Rodriguez from distance and utilize his speed and stinging power to line up a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland over Daniel Rodriguez, predicting a decision win. He notes Holland's durability, reach advantage (7 inches), and better cardio, while Rodriguez is described as a scrapper with bad fight IQ. The Guru believes Holland will out-point Rodriguez over three rounds, possibly with a late finish, but expects it to go the distance. He also mentions a prop bet that the fight will last more than 10 minutes.
Zane agrees with Connor, stating that Holland is significantly faster and that Rodriguez's recent performances against older fighters show he is not a threat. He notes that Holland's worst performances still have high work rate, making him a safe pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 49 of 111 | 44% | 50 of 115 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 66 of 166 | 39% | 70 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 15 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 81 | 43% | 35 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 27 of 60 | 45% | 28 of 64 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 0 | 7 of 16 | 43% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 9 of 22 | 40% | 9 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Santiago Ponzinibbio | 49 of 111 | 44% | 31 of 83 | 6 of 16 | 12 of 12 | 49 of 111 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 166 | 39% | 39 of 131 | 20 of 25 | 7 of 10 | 64 of 164 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 15 of 35 | 42% | 5 of 19 | 3 of 9 | 7 of 7 | 15 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 81 | 43% | 20 of 61 | 13 of 16 | 2 of 4 | 34 of 80 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 27 of 60 | 45% | 21 of 51 | 3 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 22 of 63 | 34% | 13 of 53 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Santiago Ponzinibbio | 7 of 16 | 43% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 9 of 22 | 40% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-122), Rodriguez (+102)
Round 1
A couple of welterweight action merchants draw feature bout duty at UFC Des Moines, as “The Argentine Dagger” and “D-Rod” prepare to slug it out. The third man in the Octagon, charged with possibly protecting one or both of these battle-hardened 38-year-olds from their own toughness, is Kevin Macdonald. Ponzinibbio sets up in orthodox, Rodriguez southpaw, and they exchange a couple of glancing punches as they nearly collide in the first seconds. A minute in, neither man has landed anything solid, but Rodriguez plants his feet and catches the advancing Ponzinibbio with a nice jab to the body. Scattered “whoos” can be heard as the two remain deliberate and tactical through the first half of Round 1. Ponzinibbio connects with a hard body kick that has “D-Rod” reacting visibly. Rodriguez stalks forward again and Ponzinibbio meets him with another body kick, this one a front kick to the midsection. Ponzinibbio steps forward and tries another kick, but slips on the attempt and Rodriguez pounces, clocking him with a left hand to the jaw that staggers him. Ponzinibbio retreats, trying to regain his wits, as Rodriguez gives chase. Rodriguez lands a couple more good punches, but Ponzinibbio recovers before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 2
Ponzinibbio appears to be back in possession of his faculties as they engage to open Round 2, but Rodriguez is clearly loading up his left hand, hoping to go back to that well at some point. Ponzinibbio lands a solid right to the chin, which Rodriguez eats, returning fire with a left cross. Whether because of the Round 1 slip or for some other reason, Ponzinibbio is not nearly as aggressive with his kicks through the first two minutes of the round. Left to relying on his boxing, he is getting the worse of most of the exchanges. Ponzinibbio steps in and misses just short with a big right hand, then comes back with another one that glances off the chin. Rodriguez’s movements are looking a bit labored halfway through the round. Ponzinibbio closes the distance and shoots for a takedown. Rodriguez ends up with his back against the fence, where Ponzinibbio cannot complete the takedown. They move off the fence and Ponzinibbio shoots again, this time bringing “D-Rod” to the canvas. The 10-second clapper sounds as they hit the floor, and the horn sounds before either man can put in any significant work.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Given the close nature of Round 2, it might be anyone’s fight for the taking on the judges’ scorecards, and Ponzinibbio strikes first with an overhand right. Rodriguez continues to breathe with his mouth open, but he is far from done, wading into the pocket and connecting with a left cross.
Rodriguez hits Ponzinibbio with a body kick, then a few seconds later, crushes him with a four-punch combination, finishing with a left hook that puts his foe down. Referee Macdonald, in perfect position to see Ponzinibbio’s eyes, recognizes that “The Argentine Dagger” is done and jumps in for the save as Rodriguez pounces to put in the coffin nails.
Ponzinibbio gets up and protests the stoppage, but his case is undermined by the fact that he goes stumbling across the cage and runs chest-first into the fence. Fantastic finish by Daniel Rodriguez, just at the point that the momentum of the fight appeared to be turning.
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Santiago Ponzinibbio R3 1:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez, expecting him to be the cleaner striker and apply forward pressure. He notes that Ponzinibbio tends to get busted up and that Rodriguez can take over after the first round. He also mentions a potential over 1.5 rounds bet if available.
Big Brady leans slightly toward Daniel Rodriguez in a close fight between two aging fighters. He notes that Ponzinibbio's durability is questionable, as he wobbles when hit, while Rodriguez has better volume and durability at this stage. However, both are 38 and have looked rough recently. Brady expects a competitive fight that goes the distance, with judges likely favoring Rodriguez based on optics.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Ponzinibbio's power and pressure will be too much for Rodriguez. He notes that Rodriguez is a slow starter and a slow mover, making it unlikely he can hurt Ponzinibbio consistently. Connor points out that Ponzinibbio has retained his ability to knock people out even when fights are going poorly, while Rodriguez's offense has diminished.
Ponzinibbio has slowed and his durability is a concern, but Rodriguez doesn't have the power to exploit that. Ponzinibbio will dictate the pace, land more impactful shots, and win a decision.
The MMA Guru picks Santiago Ponzinibbio, describing him as a lifelong martial artist who is more well-rounded than Daniel Rodriguez, whom he calls a 'street dude with hands.' He believes Ponzinibbio will win a decision by getting takedowns at the end of rounds to sway judges. He notes that Rodriguez has declined due to injuries and poor grappling decisions.
Zane picks Ponzinibbio, noting that despite his decline, he retains a clear process of pressure boxing and fight-changing power. He contrasts this with Rodriguez, who is slower and less sharp as a counterpuncher. Zane expects Ponzinibbio to start slow but take over by round three, swarming Rodriguez with combinations. He believes Rodriguez lacks the offensive potential to put Ponzinibbio away and will be outworked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 123 of 257 | 47% | 126 of 260 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 74 of 257 | 28% | 91 of 276 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 25 of 56 | 44% | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 44 of 99 | 44% | 44 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 23 of 91 | 25% | 23 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 54 of 102 | 52% | 57 of 105 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:56 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 20 of 85 | 23% | 37 of 104 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 123 of 257 | 47% | 44 of 153 | 56 of 80 | 23 of 24 | 117 of 251 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 74 of 257 | 28% | 58 of 228 | 9 of 21 | 7 of 8 | 74 of 256 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 25 of 56 | 44% | 7 of 32 | 11 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 25 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 31 of 81 | 38% | 20 of 67 | 5 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 44 of 99 | 44% | 19 of 65 | 18 of 27 | 7 of 7 | 44 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 23 of 91 | 25% | 20 of 83 | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 54 of 102 | 52% | 18 of 56 | 27 of 36 | 9 of 10 | 48 of 96 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 20 of 85 | 23% | 18 of 78 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 20 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rodriguez (-198), Morono (+164)
Round 1
Action is on the menu with this welterweight main card opener. Recent middleweight Rodriguez (17-5, 7-4 UFC) realized after his last outing that he is better suited for 170 pounds, and Morono (24-10, 1 NC; 13-7, 1 NC UFC) will serve as a more-than-willing dance partner. Referee Herb Dean will have his hands full as long as this one goes, and the fighters elect not to touch ‘em up. Morono stays on the outside chipping with low kicks, and Rodriguez marches forward looking for left hands. Morono loads up with a right, and he gets Rodriguez’ attention and is forced to parry a response. Morono reaches out with two punches, and he catches Rodriguez ducking in to score a right. The Texan keeps moving, absorbing a low kick and firing off a right over the top. Rodriguez eats a pair of punches when coming forward, and he shines up Morono’s right eye with a counter. Morono pursues a high kick, and he chambers and fires a right hand on the counter. Morono backs Rodriguez up with another right, and they trade kicks. Morono’s head kick comes up short, and Rodriguez tries and fail to land his own. Morono bounces his way in and out to attack, not absorbing much back from “D-Rod.” Morono lets off a right hand, and he gets clipped on the way turning himself around after spinning for a back fist. Morono sits down on a thudding right hand that forces Rodriguez to blink it out, and Rodriguez escapes and pushes out a jab to the belly. Morono absorbs a flush body kick and throws back with three punches up top. Morono jabs, flicks out a low kick and releases a trio of fists high. Rodriguez snaps the head back with a sharp jab, and he gets knocked back a few steps from a winging right hand. Morono keeps him guessing with a wide variety of strikes, but his short right hands do as well as anything he puts out. Morono whiffs on another high kick, and he slips a punch to fire off a haymaker that misses by a whisker. Morono kicks low and is met with a pair of heavy punches, and Rodriguez smiles. They trade low kicks, and Morono connects with three big overhand rights. Rodriguez wears them well, blocks a spin and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Round 2
The welterweight strikers pick up where they left off, trading blows without fear. Rodriguez fight behind his jab, and Morono looks for counters. One heavy right sends Rodriguez careening back, and Rodriguez gathers his thoughts and wades forward to re-engage. Morono takes a right hook on the chin and reloads to slug it out with Rodriguez. A right from Morono glides off the shiny head of his opponent, and Rodriguez keeps jabbing away. Morono’s face is marked up from the jabs, and he jumps forward with a Superman punch that misses the mark. Rodriguez jabs the body with his foot, and Morono meets him with a step-in right hand. Morono puts a jab on Rodriguez’s face when Rodriguez resets, and he scores a right over the top. Rodriguez fires off a high kick, and Morono comes up short on another Superman punch. Morono jabs his way into a right hand, and his subsequent haymaker bounces off the guard. When Morono slings another, it gets through. Rodriguez barely flinches when taking it flush, and he retaliates with counters on counters. Rodriguez lines up a body kick and swats his way into action, only to walk face-first into a home run punch. Rodriguez again does not waver as he takes the power strike cleanly, and Morono strings three more together over the top before getting out. Morono ducks a jab and releases a right hand, and Rodriguez’ jaw hangs open slightly as if it sustained some damage. Rodriguez’ job stays busy, and he uses it to cut off the looping striker. Morono still gets off a thudding right hand, and he goes to the body with a kick and follows with a right hook. Rodriguez scores to back Morono off, and Morono rushes back at him throwing fire. Rodriguez goes after a one-two to the body, and the two trade furiously until the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Morono
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The two men are ready and willing to get after it as soon as Dean calls for them to begin. Morono cracks Rodriguez with an effective right hand at the end of a flurry, and Rodriguez calms himself down and pushes out with a front kick and one to the lead leg. Morono chambers and fires a big right hand that partially connects, and he gets knocked back from a short left. Rodriguez follows with a hard left, and Morono staggers back to get his bearings. Instead of shelling up, Morono steels himself and comes out swinging even harder than before. The wild attacks of “The Great White” catch Rodriguez a few times, and Rodriguez’ speed is making a difference as he tends to land first. Morono catches a kick and pushes his man back, but he lets it go instead of pursuing a takedown. Morono jabs his way into an overhand right, and as Rodriguez responds, Morono bombs back. Rodriguez pokes out a leg kick and slides back from a salvo of fists, and he kicks the lead leg again and leans back from the massive counter. Rodriguez sticks Morono a few times with his piston-like left, giving Morono something to think about each time. Morono loads up with his right hand from down by his hip, and Rodriguez absorbs it cleanly and pecks at his foe with a clean right. Morono spins his way in with a back fist, and Rodriguez ducks it and tags him with a left. Rodriguez pushes the Texan against the fence, kneeing him a few times in the midsection while stifling Morono’s trip attempts. Rodriguez digs a few punches to the body on the break, and he sits down on counters with Morono bearing down on him. Rodriguez snipes him with a short right, and he slips back when Morono sells out on fastballs. Morono walks his foe down but cannot corner him or land cleanly, with Rodriguez playing defense until he ducks a spinning back fist and hurls Morono to the floor. Morono explodes back upright, and the horn blares to call an end to what should be a close one, depending on how the second round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Morono)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Rodriguez)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Alex Morono via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo makes a low-confidence pick for Daniel Rodriguez, citing Alex Morono's unreliability. He notes that Morono is the overall better fighter but can never be trusted. Angelo suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Morono instead, as he believes Morono can win at least one round. He does not bet the moneyline on either fighter.
Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by decision, but notes he needs to see the weigh-ins to confirm. He criticizes Morono's awful performance against Niko Price, where he was gassed after one minute, and notes Morono is on short notice again. He thinks Rodriguez is the better striker and less washed, though both are declining. If Morono looks bad on the scale, Brady would change his pick to a knockout. He expects a decision but is open to a finish if Morono looks terrible.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Rodriguez is a technical brawler who throws combinations and sets up shots, while Morono is a bad athlete who relies on game planning. He points out that Morono's jab is his best weapon but Rodriguez hits harder and is more durable. Connor expects Rodriguez to win a competitive fight.
Daniel notes that Rodriguez has declined significantly in speed and reflexes, as seen in the Kelvin Gastelum fight, but he still has a speed advantage over Morono, who has never been fast. He thinks Rodriguez's jab and straight punches will get there first against Morono's wild overhands. However, he is not confident and expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest.
Rodriguez is more well-rounded and technical than Morono. Morono uses footwork but will struggle with Rodriguez's counters and straight shots down the pipe. Rodriguez will walk Morono down, land big strikes, and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, criticizing Alex Morono for lacking talent, athleticism, and fast-twitch fibers. He praises Rodriguez's crisp, technical boxing and power, and expects a TKO in the second round. He dismisses Morono's grappling and overall game, calling him a 'flabby soft no Talent having hard worker'.
Zane picks Rodriguez because he believes Rodriguez's power and durability will be too much for Morono. He notes that Morono often struggles against athletic fighters with power, and Rodriguez, despite being messy, has the tools to outwork and hurt Morono. Zane thinks Morono may have moments but will eventually get cracked.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 112 of 238 | 47% | 123 of 250 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:47 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 127 of 265 | 47% | 132 of 273 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 44 of 93 | 47% | 45 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 46 of 91 | 50% | 46 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 86 | 43% | 39 of 88 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 53 of 113 | 46% | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 31 of 59 | 52% | 39 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 28 of 61 | 45% | 33 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 112 of 238 | 47% | 77 of 193 | 14 of 20 | 21 of 25 | 105 of 226 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 127 of 265 | 47% | 82 of 214 | 36 of 41 | 9 of 10 | 127 of 265 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 44 of 93 | 47% | 27 of 70 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 13 | 44 of 93 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 46 of 91 | 50% | 25 of 67 | 15 of 17 | 6 of 7 | 46 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 86 | 43% | 27 of 72 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 8 | 37 of 86 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 53 of 113 | 46% | 38 of 97 | 13 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 53 of 113 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 31 of 59 | 52% | 23 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 12 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 28 of 61 | 45% | 19 of 50 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 28 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gastelum (-250), Rodriguez (+205)
Round 1
What was scheduled to be a welterweight feature now takes place at 185 pounds, thanks to the reliably unreliable Gastelum reminding us all why the UFC forced him up a weight class in the first place. Rich Mitchell is the third man in the cage. They set up in orthodox stance and immediately get to work boxing. Gastelum comes forward, with Rodriguez throwing his jab and giving ground. Neither man lands solidly in the frenetic opening moments, but Gastelum gets his hands on Rodriguez and shoves him to the cage, with a possible clash of noggins taking place along the way. Rodriguez breaks the clinch quickly and they return to the middle of the cage. Gastelum bounces into range with overhands and right crosses that come up just short of Rodriguez’s chin, while “D-Rod” returns fire with his own jab. Rodriguez goes southpaw, and a moment later Gastelum clocks him with an overhand left, his best shot of the round so far. Half the round is gone, and Rodriguez is still working to keep Gastelum on the end of his punches. Gastelum crashes the pocket and tags Rodriguez with a left-right combo before Rodriguez can slip out the side. Rodriguez spins Gastelum’s head with a left hook-right cross combination, but Gastelum shakes it off and keeps moving forward. Gastelum reaches out and hits the body. Gastelum backs Rodriguez into the fence and nails him with several more punches right before the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum
Round 2
Gastelum surges forward again, throwing punches in pairs, and just barely slips a murderous counter from Rodriguez. They exchange combinations in the center of the cage, some of which glance, but plenty connect for both men. Rodriguez stops Gastelum’s forward movement with a jab to the body. Gastelum walks Rodriguez into the fence, but “D-Rod” circles away before he can do any work there. Gastelum changes levels and plows Rodriguez to the canvas with ease. Gastelum sets up shop at the base of the fence from top position, but Rodriguez stands quickly and they separate. Both men are in southpaw stance now, boxing at close range. Rodriguez catches Gastelum cleanly with a three-piece, but Gastelum shakes it off and returns fire. Gastelum lands a calf kick that makes Rodriguez stumble. Rodriguez tags Gastelum with a long righty jab, and Gastelum punishes him with another low kick. Rodriguez catches Gastelum with a clean one-two at the 10-second clapper. Gastelum secures a takedown right at the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
Gastelum once again comes out as if shot from a cannon, throwing his jab and one-two. Rodriguez is ready for them, but Gastelum’s first calf kick of the round stumbles him. Rodriguez seems to have no answer for those kicks, limited only by Gastelum’s sparing use of them. Gastelum changes levels for a possible takedown, but gives up on it almost immediately. They’re back to boxing at middle-to-close range, both men getting their licks in. Gastelum breaks things up by shooting for a double-leg near the fence, hoisting and depositing Rodriguez on the canvas. Gastelum moves quickly to side control and starts grinding his elbow into Rodriguez’s face, keeping his weight squarely on Rodriguez’s chest. “D-Rod” regains one-quarter guard, slipping one butterfly hook in between them. He gets half guard, and Gastelum stands out of his guard, raining down a couple of punches before letting Rodriguez return to his feet. Gastelum promptly drops for another takedown, which he gets with ease. He is on top, throwing short strikes from top position, when the final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Gastelum)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Rodriguez)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Gastelum (29-28 Gastelum)
The Official Result
Kelvin Gastelum def. Daniel Rodriguez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Kelvin but is hesitant, calling him a waste of talent. He acknowledges Kelvin's raw talent, chin, and wrestling, but notes he is undedicated and has missed weight. He points to Kelvin's last fight where he was outwrestled by Sean Brady despite being a D1 wrestler. He thinks Kelvin should win but cannot trust him, especially at -260. He will not bet on Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Kelvin Gastelum confidently, believing Daniel Rodriguez is on the decline due to fight miles and prison fights. He notes Gastelum's wrestling as a potential path and expects a decision win. Despite the steep -250 line, Brady thinks it makes sense if Rodriguez is truly fading.
Cody picks Gastelum, emphasizing his southpaw advantage and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes Rodriguez's volume striking but believes Gastelum's power and pressure will be decisive, especially given Rodriguez's recent layoff and age. He expects a decision win.
Daniel Vreeland picks Daniel Rodriguez as a confident underdog. He notes Gastelum's tendency to be in close fights and his lack of discipline (weight issues, love for tacos). He believes Rodriguez has the size, reach, and volume to push a pace and win a decision. He also mentions Gastelum's wrestling advantage but doubts he will use it.
Jacob picks Kelvin but is not confident, calling the -250/-260 odds crazy. He thinks Kelvin should be around -125 to -130. He notes Kelvin's last fight showed he forgot how to wrestle, and he might just stand and trade with Rodriguez, which could be competitive. He might have some action on Rodriguez as a dog. He believes Kelvin is the pick but not a betting favorite at those odds.
JP hesitantly picks Rodriguez by decision, citing his reach advantage and ability to keep Gastelum stalled. He worries about Gastelum's speed but lacks trust in Gastelum's recent performances. Brevan disagrees, picking Gastelum by decision, citing Gastelum's wrestling advantage and ability to score takedowns in later rounds. Brevan finds the fight dangerous from a betting perspective but leans Gastelum. JP is less confident and may avoid betting.
Paul picks Gastelum but with hesitation, hoping he uses his wrestling. He notes that if it becomes a striking match, it could be close. Paul points to Gastelum's low output and Rodriguez's volume as potential issues, but believes Gastelum's overall skills should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum over Daniel Rodriguez, citing Gastelum's superior boxing and underrated ground game. He notes that Rodriguez's striking looked lousy against Neil Magny and that his wins are over lower-level opponents. He believes Gastelum can mix in grappling and that Rodriguez's age (37) and layoff are factors. He expresses frustration that Gastelum is a favorite, as he wanted an underdog pick, but still goes with Gastelum by decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 1 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ian Machado Garry | 7 of 25 | 28% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ian Machado Garry | 7 of 25 | 28% | 2 of 17 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 19 of 42 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 18 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Garry (-285), Rodriguez (+240)
Round 1
A place in the top 10 at 170 pounds may loom for the victor of this “featured fight of the night.” After suffering his first career stoppage loss from the hands of Neil Magny, Rodriguez (17-3, 7-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to smash up unbeaten Garry (11-0, 4-0 UFC) and his shiny undefeated record. A thrilling clash is sure to play out for the next 15 minutes or less, and referee Dan Miragliotta may have his hands full with these two strikers. They do opt to touch gloves before getting after it, and Rodriguez pushes the pace and walks right into a body kick. Rodriguez pushes out a solid jab, and he springs back and forth, energetic with active movement. Garry gets off his own jab, and Rodriguez gives chase and throws a big overhand right. Garry slides out of the way and scores a high leg kick. Garry lands a left, and Rodriguez stands firm and clubs him with a counter. The two trade vicious leather, and Rodriguez reels and backs off to find a better way in. When Rodriguez advances, Garry kicks him in the ribs, and he eats a pair of jabs when looking to close the distance. Rodriguez kicks low and ties him up, but he breaks off as he would prefer to trade hands. Garry scores at the end of a three-punch salvo, and Rodriguez bounces forward and shucks off a body kick while missing a hook. Garry slaps him in the face with the instep of his foot, and he knocks Rodriguez back to the wall while chants of “Ole Ole Ole” rain down in the building. Rodriguez swings and misses with a pair of big punches, and he connects with a chopping inside calf kick.
Garry boots Rodriguez upside the head, and as Rodriguez backpedals, Garry chases after him and bowls him over. “The Future” reintroduces himself to the downed Rodriguez with several huge punches, and Rodriguez turns to his knees and appears to be out of it. Garry strategically finishes the job with one final onslaught of punches, as Rodriguez rolls to his side with nothing left to offer. Miragliotta intervenes when he determines that Rodriguez is no longer intelligently defending himself
, and Garry has just passed a massive test with flying colors. The Irishman becomes the first fighter to ever finish the durable, dangerous “D-Rod,” doing so in the first round without taking much damage. Garry climbs to the top of the cage and encourages the crowd to roar, having likely claimed a spot in the top 15 with his dynamite performance.
The Official Result
Ian Garry def. Daniel Rodriguez R1 2:57 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
Angelo picks Daniel Rodriguez with low confidence, calling him a great striker especially when not worried about takedowns. He notes Ian Garry is hittable and keeps his head straight up. He says Rodriguez will be the best striker Garry has faced and that Garry may not recover from being tagged like he did against Kanaan. He is not betting on this fight.
Big Brady thinks this fight is closer than the odds suggest. He notes Garry's striking defense is a liability, citing past fights where he got hit clean. Brady believes Rodriguez has the durability and volume to make it competitive, and expects a 15-minute striking fight that goes to decision. He picks the dog Rodriguez to pull off the upset, but acknowledges the UFC likely wants Garry to win and corrupt judges may favor him. He calls laying -300 on Garry 'whack'.
Cody picks Rodriguez as a value underdog, despite low confidence. He notes Rodriguez's experience and volume, but acknowledges Garry's speed and potential. He thinks Rodriguez could expose Garry's defensive flaws, but is not confident enough to bet heavily. He calls it a 'value pick' and places it at the bottom of his confidence list.
Connor picks Garry, emphasizing his fast start and ability to build momentum. He notes that Garry's low kicks will be a problem for Rodriguez, who hasn't faced good kickers. He thinks Rodriguez will have moments and may hurt Garry, but Garry's consistency and movement will earn him the win. He also mentions Garry's jab and straight punches as key tools.
Daniel Levi picks Ian Machado Garry, praising his confidence, striking volume, and well-rounded game. He notes that Garry has landed over 100 significant strikes in multiple fights and has knockdowns in three of his four UFC bouts. Levi believes Garry's speed and reach will be key, as Rodriguez does not have a reach or height advantage. He acknowledges Garry was dropped in his last fight but attributes that to facing a heavy hitter in Song Kenan, and notes that Rodriguez has also been dropped. Levi sees Garry winning a competitive fight, possibly even becoming the first to knock out Rodriguez.
Garry is the better striker, using distance, kicks, and a one-two down the pipe to pick apart Rodriguez. He is 11 years younger and trains at Kill Cliff FC. He may also look to take the fight to the ground to avoid Rodriguez's power. The fight will resemble Garry's win over Gabe Green, with Garry landing more consistently and winning by decision. Rodriguez is a tough test but Garry's youth and skill should prevail.
Paul picks Garry, noting his reach, technique, and cardio. He expects a close decision win for Garry, as Rodriguez doesn't have the skill set to expose him. He mentions adding Garry to a parlay at -250 but not a big play. He doubts Rodriguez's wrestling and believes Garry's speed and lateral movement will be key.
The MMA Guru picks Ian Machado Garry, highlighting his diverse striking and leg kicks. He notes that Daniel Rodriguez is a boxing-heavy fighter who stands heavy on his lead leg, making him vulnerable to leg kicks. He believes Garry will overwhelm Rodriguez with a variety of attacks and predicts a 30-27 decision.
Zane picks Garry, citing his speed, footwork, and exceptional low kicking. He notes that Rodriguez is slow and has poor leg defense, and Garry's ability to build offense over time will be key. He acknowledges Rodriguez's counter-punching and durability but thinks Garry's consistency and volume will win out. He also mentions Garry's jab and low kicks as major advantages.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 0 | 57 of 109 | 52% | 106 of 169 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 4:08 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 66 of 108 | 61% | 71 of 113 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 38 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 0 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 35 of 53 | 66% | 37 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 35 of 51 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Neil Magny | 57 of 109 | 52% | 38 of 85 | 16 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 46 of 94 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 66 of 108 | 61% | 36 of 76 | 15 of 17 | 15 of 15 | 63 of 103 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Neil Magny | 22 of 39 | 56% | 14 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 19 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Neil Magny | 27 of 52 | 51% | 18 of 41 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 45 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 35 of 53 | 66% | 25 of 43 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 32 of 50 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Neil Magny | 8 of 18 | 44% | 6 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Daniel Rodriguez | 11 of 19 | 57% | 6 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Magny (-115), Rodriguez (-105)
Round 1
The first bout on the card featuring ranked fighters will come in the UFC’s welterweight division, as perennial contender Magny (26-9, 19-8 UFC) looks to show that he is too much for Rodriguez (17-2, 7-1 UFC). As it will likely be discussed before every one of his matches until he achieves the feat, Magny is one win away from his 20th at 170 pounds, which would break a tie with all-time great Georges St. Pierre. The two 35-year-olds will battle it out in front of referee Herb Dean, and they do not wish to touch gloves. Magny holds his left arm out to keep Rodriguez away, and he pushes out a front kick. Rodriguez sits down on a left hand that knocks Magny back to the wall, but Magny bounces off and replies with a high kick that gets blocked. The two fighters trade leg kicks, and Rodriguez leaps forward with a right hand and a left to the body. Rodriguez connects with a right to the head and left to the body again, and Magny grimaces and responds with a looping punch. Rodriguez continues striking the midsection, and Magny clinches him up to slow down the body work. Rodriguez breaks free and scores a low kick, but a Magny jab has busted up the nose of “D-Rod.” Magny ties his foe up again, and Rodriguez once more fights out of it. Magny checks a kick and barely blocks a left hand in time, but he does drive Magny back to the wall again with a left hand to the liver. Magny ignores a low kick to fire off one that glances off the shoulder, and he times a Rodriguez leg kick to connect with a one-two. Magny does this same exact approach again, and as he tries to slug it out with Rodriguez, Rodriguez catches him with a clean punch that dislodges Magny’s mouthpiece. He replaces his gumshield and gets back to it, and Rodriguez bullies him back to the cage and starts nailing him with punches. Magny lets him advance into a tie-up, and he threatens with a standing arm-triangle choke before dragging Rodriguez down to the mat. Rodriguez grabs the fence in order to stand back up to his feet, and Magny holds on from behind before tripping “D-Rod” out again. Magny softens Rodriguez up with a few punches before sneaking an arm around the chin, but he elects to step over and partially take the back. Rodriguez explodes back up, and Magny lifts him up and exerts heavy pressure before slamming an elbow on the side of the head. Rodriguez breaks free with seconds to spare, and he sprints at Magny and drills him with a few punches right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magny
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle for the second stanza, and Magny sticks out a front kick to the body to reintroduce himself. Rodriguez lines up a left hand down the pipe, and Magny replies with a head kick that slams into the guard and shakes up Rodriguez. “D-Rod” marches Magny down after gathering his thoughts, and he backs Magny to the wall and connects with a clean left hand. Magny uses his reach in the hands and feet to back Rodriguez off, but Rodriguez bullies his way in with a left to the body and another to the head. Rodriguez pressures “The Haitian Sensation” with effective and powerful blows, and Magny tries to keep enough space and strike at his preferred range. Magny bursts forward with three punches that get Rodriguez’ respect, but Rodriguez comes out swinging and makes Magny rush away. The body shots from Rodriguez, especially his left hand, are adding up, and Magny reacts visibly when they land on him. Magny returns fire with front kicks, and he tries to intercept Rodriguez with a knee, but Rodriguez sees it zooming at him and sways to the side. Magny pushes the pace briefly, and he ends a short combo with a push kick to the body. Magny chains a few punches together, and Rodriguez pushes off the fence and advances. Rodriguez gives his foe a powerful shove to make Magny trip over himself, and he closes in to get clinched up. Rodriguez breaks the grip with another push, and he splits the guard with a sharp jab. Magny looks for a Thai clinch to knee the body, and Rodriguez continuously marches forward and smashes Magny in the face with a left hand. Magny’s chin holds together despite the power coming his way, and he uses tie-ups to slow the downhill-rolling Rodriguez. Magny hunts for a standing rear-naked choke at the end of the round, but he cannot get past Rodriguez’ hands before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez
Round 3
The third round begins, and Rodriguez tries to pick up where he left off with power punches. Magny responds with two front kicks, and Rodriguez is right back in his face with looping punches. Magny leaps at him with a jump knee, and Rodriguez ricochets off the wall and swings back with a vengeance. A huge left hand staggers Magny, and Rodriguez follows up with another to put “The Haitian Sensation” on baby deer legs. Magny ends up pulling guard just to stop the figurative bleeding, and Rodriguez is fine with this so that he can land a few punches from on top. Magny takes the time he needs to defend well enough and clear himself, and Rodriguez backs off and takes an upkick to the chest. Magny stands up, and he pressures forward to pursue a takedown and wrench “D-Rod” down to the floor. Magny gets one hook in as he slugs Rodriguez in the face, and he steps into mount while Rodriguez is seated against the wall. Magny wraps up the legs and scores a few punches, but he shines when Rodriguez stands and Magny slams him back down hard. Magny slithers both hooks in, but he falls off the top and Rodriguez slides out the back.
Magny lets Rodriguez stand up so that he can wrap up a guillotine choke, and as Rodriguez falls to his back, Magny transitions straight into an anaconda choke. Magny adjusts his grip and switches the arm position to latch on a brabo choke, and Rodriguez might not have enough in the tank to get out of it. Magny squeezes with all his might, and his iron grip coupled with his superior energy reserves force “D-Rod” to tap out for the first time in his career.
Magny has done it, digging deep to pull off the victory, and he registers his 20th as a welterweight to pass "GSP" as the winningest in divisional history.
The Official Result
Neil Magny def. Daniel Rodriguez R3 3:33 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo picks Magny, citing his well-roundedness and the many factors against Rodriguez: a close fight many thought he lost, a quick turnaround, and a staph infection that prevented training. He notes Magny is more well-rounded overall and expects him to get it done.
Big Brady favors Rodriguez's striking speed and volume, expecting him to stuff Magny's takedowns and keep the fight at range. He notes concerns about Rodriguez's recent injury and weight cut but believes he will win a decision. He sees Magny's path to victory as a grinding fight, but doubts he can implement it.
Cody picks Daniel Rodriguez to edge a close competitive decision. He notes that Magny relies heavily on wrestling and controlling opponents against the cage, but at 35, his takedown success is declining, as seen against Max Griffin (1 for 8) and Shavkat Rakhmonov. Rodriguez has good takedown defense and pops back up quickly, as shown against Jingliang and Kevin Lee. Rodriguez also has superior volume, landing high significant strikes in his fights, while Magny's output is lower because he focuses on grappling. In the Apex, the acoustics favor the volume striker, so Rodriguez should win by decision.
Daniel Levi picks Daniel Rodriguez, noting he bet him at +100 for two units. He believes Rodriguez has crisper, more meaningful strikes and that Magny may be on the decline, citing the Max Griffin fight where Magny was dropped and the Shavkat fight where he had no success. He warns that Rodriguez must avoid being lulled into Magny's clinch-heavy game, but thinks Rodriguez's cardio and boxing give him the edge.
The host likes Magny's pace, pressure, and cardio, believing he can outwork Rodriguez. He notes Magny's win over Jeff Neal (a better striker) as a positive indicator. He expects Magny to use dirty clinch, kicks, and volume to win a decision, and sees value on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Magny's jabs are often not counted as significant strikes, so his total strikes may be misleading. He points out that judges are rewarding bigger, cleaner shots over volume of jabs, which favors Rodriguez. He also questions whether Magny can dominate the grappling, as he has struggled against better grapplers. Paul picks d-rod for the same reasons.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez, believing Magny's prime is past due to injuries and recent performances. He notes Rodriguez has underrated takedown defense and will outbox Magny, who relies on straight punches. He predicts a KO in round two, citing Magny's loss to Max Griffin and Rodriguez's full camp advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 78 of 175 | 44% | 78 of 175 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 88 of 185 | 47% | 89 of 186 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 54 | 50% | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 24 of 59 | 40% | 24 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 66 | 51% | 35 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Li Jingliang | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Daniel Rodriguez | 78 of 175 | 44% | 25 of 103 | 23 of 34 | 30 of 38 | 78 of 174 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 88 of 185 | 47% | 54 of 140 | 17 of 23 | 17 of 22 | 88 of 185 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 54 | 50% | 7 of 29 | 8 of 11 | 12 of 14 | 27 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 20 of 40 | 50% | 10 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Daniel Rodriguez | 24 of 59 | 40% | 8 of 33 | 5 of 10 | 11 of 16 | 24 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 66 | 51% | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 13 | 34 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Daniel Rodriguez | 27 of 62 | 43% | 10 of 41 | 10 of 13 | 7 of 8 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Li Jingliang | 34 of 79 | 43% | 25 of 68 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
On a little over a day’s notice, these next three fights will all feature fighters facing different opponents than they trained for. This mix-and-match round robin begins at 180 pounds, with welterweight Li (19-7, 11-5 UFC) battling it out against a man that weighed in 10 pounds heavier than him. Rodriguez (16-2, 6-1 UFC) planned on fighting at 180 pounds, so on paper he should have a significant weight advantage. Keeping things on the up-and-up is referee Mark Smith, and the fighters gladly touch gloves to start things off. Rodriguez tries to reach his opponent with a lunging right jab, and Li looks for a check hook on the way in but cannot land it. Rodriguez ducks back when a low kick sweeps at him, and he charges with two punches that knock the Chinese fighter back to the wall. Li targets another body kick, and Rodriguez cracks him with a left hand. They measure one another with their alternating hands, and the pace wanes as they appear to be concerned with one another’s power. Li kicks the body, and he dodges a response of the same variety. Rodriguez peppers the jab and walks into a right hand, but he pays it no mind and resets on the outside. Li kicks with both legs to the inside and outside of the leg, and Rodriguez keeps flicking out his sharp jab. Li throws a punch that bounces off the top of the cup and follows with one to the head, and Rodriguez ignores it and takes a flush body kick. Li works the ribcage with several body, and Rodriguez responds with a head kick that lands about as cleanly as one can, but Li does not even budge. Li instead swarms him with punches, and Rodriguez retreats and attacks the calf with his shin. Li leaps forward with a pair of punches, and Rodriguez shoulder rolls both of them and finds himself evading a secondary burst of blows aimed his way. Two kicks go unanswered from Li, and they clash shins when kicking at the same time. When Li fires off a kick to the side and lazily brings his leg back, Rodriguez times the opportunity to belt him with a pair of stunning hooks. Li shakes out the cobwebs and catches a low kick. As holds one leg up, he kicks the other, sweeping Rodriguez out and chasing him to smack him in the face with a right hand. Li backs off before Rodriguez can unload on him, and he gives ground and starts moving his arms around strangely. One last kick from “The Leech” connects before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 2
Fists are bumped to begin the second stanza, and Rodriguez skips forward with a chopping calf kick. Li gives him one back, and he bull-rushes forward with punches and backpedals to start showboating. Rodriguez does not make him pay for the posturing, only scoring a few swiping right hands that do not land flush. Rodriguez sticks out a jab, and they trade leg kicks on the inside. When Li charges in recklessly, Rodriguez quickly intercepts him with a short left. The jab for Rodriguez is working effectively, and Li is getting more wild and throwing heavier with wider arcs. Rodriguez sees them coming and sticks the jab in Li’s face repeatedly. Li sits down on an inside leg kick, and he gets backed off from a punch to the chest. Rodriguez connects with a solid kick on the inner thigh, and he aims another to the same spot. Rodriguez checks a kick and sticks his hands out, but Li swats them away. They grade these tit-for-tat strikes one after the other, as if taking turns to compete. Rodriguez turns up the pace briefly with a series of jabs, and he pulls back when Li winds up with a big left hand. Rodriguez dodges several winging punches, and the crowd begins to boo the two fighters for their swings and misses. Both men get off heavy leg kicks, and they come up short with their fists. When Li attempts a Superman punch, Rodriguez catches him with a quick right hook in the way forward, and Li changes his mind about any subsequent shots. Rodriguez scores a left, and Li responds with a booming shot that knocks Rodriguez and appears to hurt him. “The Leech” grins and lets Rodriguez off the hook instead of giving chase, and Rodriguez backs him up to the wall with low kicks and jabs. The American batters the lead leg with kicks, and he goes up high with a kick. Li throws him to the mat, but before he can take advantage, the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Li
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Li
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Li
Round 3
The gloves are touched to lead off the final period, and Rodriguez advances but does not throw much. Li counters him with a straight right, and they go punch for punch and kick for kick in a slow but methodical pace. Li charges, swinging hammers, and Rodriguez backs him off with jabs and checks a leg kick. Li throws bombs, and Rodriguez slips them and comes forward. Li attempts to catch a kick, and he lets go before anything comes from it. Li peppers his man with leg kicks, and he scores a left hand on the ear. Li slaps Rodriguez as the crowd voices its disapproval, and this prompts a brief exchange of fists. Rodriguez takes anything on the chin and venomously retaliates, and Li ricochets off the fencing. Li ducks a hook and swings wide, with exciting near-misses from both men. Rodriguez splits the guard repeatedly with jabs, and he uses them to shut down the biggest blows from his opponent. The leg kicks come from both men, but it is only Rodriguez who checks them. Li ducks down and wings a huge right hand, and Rodriguez guards it just in the nick of time. Rodriguez slips and counters, and he keeps his jab in Li’s face one after the next. Li targets the body with a straight right, but it is one-and-done as Rodriguez marks him up with jabs. Rodriguez follows one jab with a left hand, and Li does not react well to it. Li backs off, his volume diminishing, but Rodriguez is unable to find his chin with anything of merit. Li sits down on a right hand, Rodriguez throws back with a vengeance. The slow-paced match comes to a merciful close after 15 minutes, but these two deserve all the props – and Li more than anyone else tonight – for taking this difficult opponent switch in stride.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rodriguez (29-28 Li)
The Official Result
Daniel Rodriguez def. Jingliang Li via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting he will be bigger, more powerful, and more accurate. He thinks Holland's accuracy is laser-pinpoint and he has a grappling advantage if the fight goes to the ground. He acknowledges Rodriguez is more technical but believes Holland's power and accuracy will be the difference.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by decision, citing Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and superior technical striking. He acknowledges Daniel Rodriguez's toughness and volume but notes Rodriguez has not faced a striker of Holland's caliber. He expects a competitive fight but believes Holland's power and reach will be decisive.
Cody is leaning towards Tony Ferguson as a dog, noting that Li Jingliang is an average fighter who struggles as a favorite. He believes Ferguson's competition level is much higher and that the move to welterweight helps Ferguson. He likes the under 1.5 takedowns for Li on PrizePicks, as he doesn't think Li will shoot. He picks Ferguson at +270.
Daniel Levi leans Kevin Holland in this catchweight bout. He cites Holland's seven-inch reach advantage and six-year age edge, plus his speed at the new weight class. However, he worries about Holland's reckless charges and poor takedown defense, and acknowledges Rodriguez's boxing and counter-punching. Levi says it's a tough call and he wouldn't be surprised if Rodriguez wins.
Jacob picks Daniel Rodriguez, comparing it to the Nathaniel Wood vs Charles Jourdain fight where the more technical striker won. He thinks Rodriguez's technical boxing will give Holland issues, as Holland has not faced a technical striker like Rodriguez. He notes Holland's wins are against lesser competition and Rodriguez will piece him up.
The host leans Li Jingliang but is tempted by Tony Ferguson as a live underdog. He expects Li to win by KO but notes Ferguson's durability and submission threat. He warns against parlaying Li and suggests the KO line at +110.
Paul picks Tony Ferguson, agreeing that Li Jingliang is overrated as a favorite. He notes Ferguson's speed, volume, and grappling advantage, and that Li's takedown defense is not a concern. He believes Ferguson's experience against top competition gives him the edge, and that Li's path to victory is a lucky punch. He is surprised by the size of the dog odds.
The MMA Guru picks Li Jingliang to win by TKO at the end of the second round. He describes Li coming out with leg kicks, while Rodriguez gets his jab going. Rodriguez lands better punches in the first round, but Li takes them well. In round two, Li's pressure increases, and after Rodriguez commits to shots, Li dips under and lands a left hook, putting Rodriguez down and finishing with TKO.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by second-round knockout. He highlights Rodriguez's volume, power, and durability, while noting Dalby has been dropped in four of six UFC fights and has questionable chin. He also mentions Rodriguez's good ground game and takedown defense.
Daniel picks Rodriguez, citing his solid boxing, ability to survive adversity, and finishing instincts. He notes Dalby has a chin issue and has been dropped repeatedly. He expects Rodriguez to land a fight-ending blow after a competitive early going.
The host picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by first or second round KO. He notes Rodriguez has crisper hands and better durability, while Dalby has been hurt before and may struggle to get takedowns. He expects Rodriguez to time Dalby's entries and land big shots.
The MMA Guru picks Daniel Rodriguez to win by TKO in the first or second round. He criticizes Dalby's recent performance against Jesse Ronson and believes Rodriguez can fight going backwards and piece Dalby apart. He notes Rodriguez's ability to come back from being hurt.
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