Career Averages - Kyle Daukaus
Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
Kyle Daukaus - Fight History
AJ is hesitant on picking Daukaus because Nickal is a freak athlete and elite wrestler. He mentions Daukaus is tricky out of southpaw but does not commit to a pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 1 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 8 of 11 | 72% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-375), Meerschaert (+295)
Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Daukaus immediately tags Meerschaert with a straight left. Daukaus wades in with a straight left hand that rocks Meerschaert, who is already in retreat mode. Meerschaert falls to the floor after absorbing another shot. Daukaus follows him down and tees off with hammerfists before locking in a brabo choke.
Daukaus powers Meerschaert to his back and applies the squeeze, and it’s only a matter of moments before the veteran middleweight is forced to tap out.
Daukaus now has back-to-back first round finishes since returning to the UFC.
The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Gerald Meerschaert via Submission (Brabo Choke) R1 0:50
Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, noting that Gerald Meerschaert has poor takedown accuracy and hasn't taken anyone down in three fights. Daukaus is a good grappler with length and solid takedown defense. Angelo is confident but questions the -325 odds, suggesting Daukaus' last win was against a distracted opponent.
Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting his improved striking and power since being cut from the UFC. He criticizes Gerald Meerschaert's chin as 'dust' and his recent poor performances, including gassing out badly. Brady believes Daukaus is the better grappler and striker at this point and predicts a first-round knockout, referencing Daukaus's own claim that he will knock out Meerschaert.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Meerschaert is on a losing streak and has been knocked out multiple times. He points out that Daukaus is bigger and has better striking. Cody thinks Daukaus will finish the fight inside the distance, possibly by TKO in the first round. He is confident in the pick.
Connor also picks Daukaus, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Meerschaert has lost a step and that Daukaus showed aggression and certainty in his last fight. However, he warns that Daukaus might get overly ambitious and get submitted, but overall trusts Daukaus to win.
Daniel believes Daukaus is on a resurgence with newfound confidence and power, as shown in his knockout of Michelle Pereira. He expects Daukaus to feast on an aging Meerschaert, who has been finished in recent fights. He predicts a first-round knockout for Daukaus.
Lucrative James picks Kyle Daukaus to win, stating that Gerald Meerschaert is washed and Daukaus has better striking and grappling. He notes Daukaus' resurgence after a first-round KO in his return fight, and believes his takedown defense and top control will neutralize Meerschaert's submission threats. He predicts a finish or clear decision for Daukaus.
Daukaus is a better and younger version of Meerschaert. He can win whichever way he chooses, whether by knockout or submission. He wins inside the distance.
Paul picks Daukaus, citing his size, striking, and submission defense. He notes that Meerschaert has poor durability and has been knocked out frequently. Paul believes Daukaus will win by TKO, possibly in the first round. He also mentions that Daukaus has looked good on the regional scene and is a big middleweight.
The Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by TKO in round two. He notes that Gerald Meerschaert is on a three-fight losing streak and aging, while Daukaus is coming into his prime with improved striking and grappling. Daukaus' clinch work and power should be too much for Meerschaert, who may no longer have the craftiness to pull off a submission.
Zane picks Daukaus confidently, noting that Meerschaert has lost a step and never had much physical edge. He thinks Daukaus has surprisingly fast hands and is too willing to grapple, but that he can be fast and slick. He believes Daukaus might be starting a veteran run and that Meerschaert is past his prime.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michel Pereira | 1 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Michel Pereira | 1 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michel Pereira | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Michel Pereira | 5 of 8 | 62% | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The younger Daukaus brother returns to the UFC after a mixed first run in the Octagon followed a second middleweight title win in
Cage Fury Fighting Championships
after his release. Tasked with getting Daukaus’ second stint off to a bad start will be noted Brazilian madman Pereira. The referee on duty is Marc Goddard. Daukaus is southpaw, Pereira orthodox. Daukaus stalks forward and Pereira gives ground. Pereira nails Daukaus with a huge body kick, but he wears it well.
Seconds later, Daukaus clips the onrushing “Demolidor” with a short right hook to the jaw that drops him to his butt. Pereira tries to rally, but Daukaus pounces with a couple of glancing fists, then three jackhammer elbows that spur Goddard into action for the save.
Sensational knockout and a triumphant return for “The D’Arce Knight,” and for those keeping track at home, that makes two sub-minute finishes in the first four fights at UFC Shanghai. Yes, please.
The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Michel Pereira R1 0:43 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
Angelo is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him an absolute beast with insane athleticism, real power, and solid wrestling and BJJ. He notes that Pereira is a better hammer than nail and that his recent loss was uncharacteristic, partly due to personal life issues. He dismisses Kyle Daukaus as not good at the UFC level despite regional wins, and expects Pereira to beat the brakes off him. He even says if Pereira doesn't win, cut them both.
Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round knockout, despite Pereira's recent poor performance against Abus Magomedov. He believes the matchup is favorable for Pereira because Daukaus is hittable and fragile, and Pereira has the striking advantage. He notes that Daukaus will struggle to take Pereira down and that Pereira should finish early with a body shot or flying knee.
The host acknowledges it's tough to trust Pereira after his last gunshy performance, but thinks he has a good opponent here to show off his power. He notes that Daukaus has crumbled under power before and expects Pereira to find a knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win, expecting an easy first-round finish. He believes Pereira is on another level compared to Kyle Daukaus, who is decent but lacks standout ability in any area. He notes that Pereira is much better at striking and moves well, which should carry him past Daukaus. However, he acknowledges that if the fight goes later, Daukaus could find success in the clinch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | 1 | 49 of 94 | 52% | 97 of 159 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 37 of 79 | 46% | 38 of 83 | 0 of 8 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eryk Anders | 1 | 29 of 62 | 46% | 36 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 33 of 63 | 52% | 33 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 2 | Eryk Anders | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 61 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 5 of 20 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Eryk Anders | 49 of 94 | 52% | 27 of 70 | 14 of 14 | 8 of 10 | 23 of 55 | 6 of 8 | 20 of 31 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 37 of 79 | 46% | 14 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 35 of 76 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eryk Anders | 29 of 62 | 46% | 12 of 43 | 9 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 20 of 46 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 9 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 33 of 63 | 52% | 13 of 43 | 8 of 8 | 12 of 12 | 31 of 61 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Eryk Anders | 20 of 32 | 62% | 15 of 27 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 22 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 4 of 16 | 25% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-215), Anders (+185)
Round 1
Middleweights open up the main card in a fight that will get one man back up to .500 inside the Octagon. Whether that is former light heavyweight Anders (14-7, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) or submission specialist Daukaus (11-3, 1 NC; 2-3, 1 NC UFC), that remains to be seen. They bump fists in front of referee Keith Peterson, who clocks them in right after ejecting nonsense from the Amway Center. Anders strikes first with a body kick, and Daukaus strides forward with two punches and two low kicks in response. Anders stutter-steps his way forward, and Daukaus intercepts him with a few punches and makes Anders turn around. As they trade leather, commentators Michael Bisping and Daniel Cormier talk about popular television shows. Daukaus gets off a knee to the body, and he shoots in for a double but is stuffed by the brick wall former football player. Daukaus sticks out a jab, and when he kicks the body, Anders lifts him up and throws him to the ground like a sack of potatoes. Anders lords over his grounded opponent with several slapping low kicks, and Daukaus considers a leglock before Anders hops away. Daukaus allows his opponent to adjust his shorts, and they touch ‘em up before re-engaging. Daukaus feints and gets kicked, and he wings a left hand over the top that slams into the side of Anders’ head. Anders backs his man up and punches the body, prompting Daukaus to spring into action. The Philadelphia native leaps forward, and after landing a few, Anders clips him with a right hand and sends Daukaus tumbling to the mat. Anders considers kicking the legs a few times before letting Daukaus back up, and Daukaus takes a few deep breaths when coming back to his feet. Anders is swinging heavily, and Daukaus does not shy away from these exchanges as he similarly slugs back. Daukaus scores thudding hooks on the side of Anders’ head, but Anders is tough and throws back with a ferocious uppercut that snaps the head back. Anders reddens the nose with a one-two, and he continues to push the pace as he works the body and head. The fighters rush together, and the crown of Anders’ head slams square into Daukaus’ face and drops him to his knees. Peterson sees it and immediately calls it, and he informs the outside officials that it was an accidental clash of heads. Daukaus takes the time he needs and gets right back to it, but Anders is on him and belts him with a few punches with a left hand that send Daukaus straight back to the floor. As Daukaus attempts to scramble and look for some kind of late submission, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Round 2
Anders senses that Daukaus may not be fully recovered, and he immediately pushes the pace to start Round 2 with a vengeance. A few heavy strikes prompt “The D’Arce Knight” to shoot for a takedown, and he chains singles into doubles as Anders gets away with a fence grab. Anders slugs Daukaus on the side of the head, and these punches may be hurting Daukaus, as he lets go and flops to his back. Anders kicks the legs a few times, and this time, he lowers himself to the ground to drop a few hammerfists. Anders lands several standing-to-ground punches in rapid succession, and Daukaus kicks him back. Peterson lets Daukaus stand back up, and
Anders coils his fist and cracks Daukaus in the face with a brutal left hand. Daukaus awkwardly slumps to his knees and half-heartedly pursues a low single takedown, only to get shoved to his back, as Anders beats him down with right hand after merciless right hand. The hammerfists and punches continue to get through while Daukaus is shelled up, and Peterson has no choice but to call it on account of rain.
The knockout victory for Anders is his first finish in almost three and a half years, while he also snaps a two-fight skid in the process.
The Official Result
Eryk Anders def. Kyle Daukaus R2 2:45 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Eryk Anders as a solid underdog, expecting him to bully Kyle Daukaus with better wrestling and power. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and mediocre striking, calling him a 'jiu jitsu nerd' who can snatch submissions but lacks wrestling control. He believes Anders will avoid submissions and take Daukaus's head off with strikes.
Big Brady picks the underdog Anders, citing his takedown defense (75%) and power advantage on the feet. He notes Daukaus is hittable (40% striking defense) and not a great wrestler. He expects Anders to keep the fight standing and win a close decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.
Cody provides a detailed breakdown of Anders' career, calling him untrustworthy. He thinks Daukaus will land combinations and has a grappling advantage. He expects a boring decision win for Daukaus.
Daniel Levi leans Daukaus to slightly out-hustle Anders, but he has concerns about Daukaus not putting a stamp on fights and Anders' physicality. He notes Anders' lack of activity and tendency to not pull the trigger. He picks Daukaus but is not confident.
The host leans towards Daukaus but is not confident enough to bet the minus 200 line. He thinks Daukaus may have a slight striking advantage and could win by decision, but he is concerned about Anders' strength and grappling. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a clinch-heavy fight that goes to decision.
Paul picks Daukaus, noting Anders' inconsistency and poor performances. He thinks Daukaus has a grappling edge and will land more strikes. He is cautious about betting but expects Daukaus to win cleanly.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus, believing Eryk Anders has lost his touch. He notes Anders looked bad against Jun Yong Park and Darren Stewart, while Daukaus has more potential and looked good against Jamie Pickett. He predicts Daukaus will win a decision with grappling and submission attempts.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 2 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 2 | 8 of 15 | 53% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:36 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Dolidze | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Dolidze | 8 of 15 | 53% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 8 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-240), Dolidze (+195)
Round 1
A 14-fight card – and admittedly a solid one for the ESPN airwaves, relative to recent offers on that flagship network – has dwindled to 13 with the co-main event scratched. We still begin the day’s festivities in the Texas capital city of Austin, with a middleweight matchup of power vs. technique starting things off. The massive Georgian Dolidze (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will battle it out against sneaky submission specialist Daukaus (11-2, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC) in a matchup that could put one within spitting distance of the rankings, and referee Mike Beltran has the honors of the first fight of the card. There is a side glove touch to start the night, and Daukaus leads off with a slapping low kick. Dolidze walks through another as he stares down in opponent with bad intentions, and he ducks forward to throw a left hook only to bang into Daukaus’ head. There is no cut on either man, and Beltran lets him recover for a moment. When they reset, a short left hook from Dolidze shakes Daukaus up, and Daukaus falls to his back. As he recovers, Daukaus shoots in for a takedown while his legs simultaneously abandon him. Dolidze’s takedown defense holds up well as he jams Daukaus up against the wall, and Daukaus powers his way back up to his feet and may have grabbed the fence on the way.
After a clinch exchange, the Georgian lifts up a high knee that blasts into Daukaus’ chin, crashing into it with a sickening thud. Daukaus crumbles to the mat on his back, totally annihilated from the blow, and he instinctively covers his face with his arms even if he might not be with it. Dolidze seals the deal with a short barrage of punches, leading Beltran to step in and stop the fight.
That’s one heck of a way to start things off tonight.
The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kyle Daukaus R1 1:13 via KO (Knee and Punches)
Angelo picks Roman Dolidze because he is a world champion grappler, far superior to Kyle Daukaus in pure grappling. He notes Dolidze's power in his hands and believes the fight comes down to takedowns and takedown defense. He acknowledges Dolidze's cardio issues and low takedown defense (37%) but thinks Dolidze can win early rounds. He suggests a plus 3.5 round bet as a safer option.
Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Dolidze has power but lacks volume and cardio, while Daukaus has better striking volume, cardio, and fight IQ. He also highlights Dolidze's poor fight IQ, such as dropping for leg locks and giving up positions, which Daukaus can exploit as a black belt.
Cody picks Daukaus, citing his improving striking, BJJ, and takedown defense. He thinks Dolidze's striking is poor and his grappling is overrated. He expects Daukaus to win on the feet or survive on the ground and take over late.
Daniel Levi leans Kyle Daukaus, thinking his hands have improved and he can grind out a win if he avoids Dolidze's leg locks. He notes Dolidze has power and a leg lock game, but if he doesn't secure a submission, he ends up on his back. Levi sees Daukaus as slightly ahead but the -265 price demands domination, which he doesn't expect. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, with Dolidze at +220 having value.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting Daukaus' improvements and Dolidze's lack of striking and cardio. He thinks Daukaus is the better fighter and should win.
The MMA Guru leans towards Kyle Daukaus, citing Dolidze's poor performance in his last fight where he struggled against an opponent he should have handled easily. He believes Daukaus is younger, improving, and capable in the clinch and at range. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Daukaus, noting that Dolidze's best wins have not been impressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 19 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 19 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:12 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 5 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Daukaus | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyle Daukaus | 6 of 9 | 66% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 5 of 9 | 55% | 2 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Receiving an upgrade to the co-main event slot, Daukaus (10-2, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) and Pickett (13-6, 2-2 UFC) will handle their business at a pre-planned 195-pound catchweight due to the latter taking the fight on short notice. This fun stylistic clash will draw officiating from referee Herb Dean, and the fighters gladly touch gloves as they are happy to be fighting tonight. Pickett strikes first with few low kicks, and Daukaus replies in kind. Right after Daukaus wings a right hand, he changes levels to go after a takedown. Although Pickett stays upright on the first attempt, Daukaus sucks his legs out beneath him and drags him down. From his back, “The Nightwolf” holds on to a guillotine choke, and Daukaus wisely comes around with his own shoulder to set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Pickett lets go of his arm grip so that he does not himself get submitted, and instead sits up and turns on his hip to try to stand back up. Daukaus keeps his man trapped beneath him, smacking him in the face with a few right hands, but Pickett explodes out of the position and powers back to his feet. Pickett tries to let his hands go when he gets upright, only to find Daukaus right on him to go hunting for a single. The Philadelphia native successfully lifts Pickett’s leg all the way up in the air before slamming him to the mat, and he is quick to secure half guard. When Pickett sits up and turns like before, Daukaus times this to try to take his back. Pickett simply stands up from this position, and he shucks Daukaus off of his back. Daukaus does not let up, remaining tied to Pickett until he lets go of his own accord. Out of nowhere, Daukaus drills Pickett with a few punches square on the chin, and when Pickett is shaken up, Daukaus leaps forward to snag another takedown.
Pickett falls to his back, and when he rolls to his side, Daukaus quickly attacks with a sneaky brabo choke from a difficult angle. In half guard, Daukaus keeps the choke snaked around Pickett’s neck and it is tight. With no way to get out, Pickett wriggles his arm free so that he can tap out on Daukaus’ side barely one second before the horn blares.
There is a bit of confusion as to the timing of the stoppage, or whether Pickett reached the end of the round, but it appears that he tapped out just before the bell. What a way to win a fight!
The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Jamie Pickett R1 4:59 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.
Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.
Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.
Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.
Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.
Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 2:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 9 of 13 | 69% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 3 | 0 | 2:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Holland | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 9 of 13 | 69% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kevin Holland | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 9 of 13 | 69% | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In the co-main event, two middleweights who have struggled as of late in Holland (21-7, 8-4 UFC) and Daukaus (10-2, 1-2 UFC) will pair off in hopes of staying afloat on the ever-growing roster. Their finish rates are 1% apart, with Holland preferring the knockout while all of Daukaus’ wins inside the distance have come by submission, most of which from a brabo choke. Can Daukaus give Holland fits on the ground, or has “Trailblazer” ironed out those deficiencies? Like referee Dan Miragliotta, we are about to find out after the two touch gloves. Holland begins with a slapping low kick, and he darts forward with a big right hand. Daukaus responds with a few right hands, and he charges in for a takedown try. Holland is ready for it, and he gets pushed to the fence and possibly kneed low. Holland keeps himself upright as he starts talking to the commentary team, and he smiles and boxes Daukaus’ ears. Holland gets dragged to a knee, but he pops back up without concern. Daukaus looks to trip him down, and “Trailblazer” keeps his balance and starts talking more trash. Holland breaks free and finds himself in submission danger when Daukaus pulls for a standing guillotine choke. Holland provides humorous commentary to commentator Daniel Cormier’s commentary, making himself laugh while punching his foe in the side. Daukaus holds on in this stalemate position as neither can advance, and Holland stomps the toes several times until Miragliotta breaks them up.
Holland gets off a one-two, and when he leans forward to strike, the two clash heads and Holland falls forward to the ground in a heap. Miragliotta calls for a replay and Daukaus hunts for a brabo choke that he turns into a guillotine. Holland gets back to his knees and stands up, but Daukaus is on his back and he snares a rear-naked choke. The choke is incredibly tight, and Holland grimaces and taps out.
There is immediate controversy as Holland was clearly compromised by the clash of heads. There is no bad blood, as they hug it out while the referees and commission officials talk over the next steps. Replay official Herb Dean informs Miragliotta that he could assign the result as a no contest depending on how he feels and reviews the sequence. A lengthy period of confusion follows, and Holland asks for them to run it back no matter the final result. Daukaus is fine with this. It appears that this fight will not be a win for Daukaus, and it is good for the fighters involved that instant replay has been implemented.
The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Clash of Heads) R1 3:43
Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, believing his grappling will be enough to take down Kevin Holland, who has shown zero takedown defense. He notes that Daukaus is a very good grappler with solid jiu-jitsu, while Holland is a sniper on his feet with good BJJ but no wrestling. Angelo thinks Daukaus will stick to a game plan, get the fight to the ground, and control from there. He likes Daukaus at plus 120 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,700. He hates the monkey knife fight line and will not touch it.
Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, seeing this as a good bounce-back spot. He notes Holland's losses came against elite wrestlers (Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson) who are far better than Daukaus. Daukaus has poor striking defense (39%) and is very hittable, while Holland is a black belt himself and has shown good grappling against Gerald Meerschaert. Brady thinks Holland will stuff takedowns or get back up, and on the feet it's night and day. He predicts a knockout due to Daukaus's poor striking defense.
Cody picks Daukaus as a dog, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and mental fragility. He notes that Holland has shown no ability to keep fights standing and gets taken down easily, even by mediocre wrestlers. Daukaus has good grappling and should be able to take Holland down and control him on the ground. He also mentions that Holland's long frame makes it hard for him to scramble back to his feet.
Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, believing he is in a different class than Kyle Daukaus. He acknowledges Holland's wrestling issues exposed by top-five opponents but thinks Daukaus is not at that level to exploit them. Levi notes Daukaus is tough and durable but expects Holland's dynamic striking and reach to be too much. He suggests the line is a discount due to Holland's recent losses and that he would be a bigger favorite otherwise.
I'm staying away from this fight. Holland has huge grappling holes, but Daukaus isn't a great wrestler either. I think the over 2.5 rounds is interesting because both guys are durable and it might be a low-output fight. I don't have a strong pick either way.
Paul leans towards Holland but dislikes the -160 price. He acknowledges Holland's advantages on the feet but is concerned about his takedown defense and mental lapses. He notes that Daukaus is not a world-class wrestler but should be able to get the fight to the ground. He ultimately does not make a firm pick but seems to favor the dog.
The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing his reach advantage and Daukaus' poor stand-up. He notes Daukaus was dominated by Phil Hawes and struggled to take him down. Holland has been training wrestling and should stuff takedowns. He predicts Holland will get a second-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Hawes | 0 | 66 of 101 | 65% | 157 of 210 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 5:34 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 28 of 82 | 34% | 52 of 113 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Hawes | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 32 of 39 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:33 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 5 of 21 | 23% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 2:56 | |
| 2 | Phil Hawes | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 48 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 30 of 60 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 | |
| 3 | Phil Hawes | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 77 of 106 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Phil Hawes | 66 of 101 | 65% | 42 of 75 | 23 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 33 of 57 | 18 of 19 | 15 of 25 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 28 of 82 | 34% | 20 of 68 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 26 of 78 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Hawes | 16 of 22 | 72% | 10 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 5 of 21 | 23% | 2 of 15 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Phil Hawes | 29 of 45 | 64% | 15 of 30 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 37 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 22 of 51 | 43% | 17 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Phil Hawes | 21 of 34 | 61% | 17 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 |
| Kyle Daukaus | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The new main card opener sees a middleweight clash between representatives of rival states New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC) will ply his knockout-friendly trade against submission specialist Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC). The third man in the cage for a fight that may not last long is referee Mark Smith, and there is no serious glove touch before the two get down to business. The blonde-haired Hawes comes out aggressively, throwing bombs and backing Daukaus up immediately. Hawes has a kick clip the cup, and there is a pause for just a second or two. Daukaus adjusts himself and throws back with heavy leather, and Hawes is either hurt or off-balance, as he slips back. Hawes interrupts an advancing Daukaus with a front kick, and he goes back to stalking the Philadelphia native down and throwing big strikes. Out of nowhere, Hawes ducks down, scoops Daukaus up and slams him down. Daukaus defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but he is immediately in danger for the Von Preux choke. Hawes recognizes this and presses his shoulder down, but he cannot finish it. Instead, Daukaus uses pure power to roll Hawes over and put him on his back. “Megatron” slides right into danger with a choke attempt from Daukaus, but he scrambles and gets out of harm’s way. When he gets to his knees, Daukaus takes his back. Hawes defends the hooks, powers back to his feet, and is quick to fight off a single leg takedown attempt from Daukaus. When he does not land it, Daukaus drops to his knees for a double, and that too comes up short. Hawes, while keeping himself upright, is landing short strikes to the body and head to make Daukaus think twice about his position. Hawes lifts Daukaus up with a knee to the chest, but he cannot get the Pennsylvanian off of him. Daukaus embraces the grind, pressing Hawes into the wire and putting his full body weight on his man. Both men try to get off elbows, but neither are successful. Daukaus sells out for a double, and Hawes sprawls against the cage and keeps his balance to fight off this attempt. Hawes introduces his knee to Daukaus’ torso, and the two separate with seconds to spare. Neither throw anything of note until the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Round 2
The middleweights rush out of their corners to meet in the middle, but it does not take long for Hawes to push the pace and start backing Daukaus up against the fence. Daukaus tries to spring forward with a kick to the body, and Hawes interrupts him and lands a few punches. Daukaus swings a spinning strike, and Hawes does not completely avoid it. “Megatron” is suddenly rocked, and Daukaus lays into him with a salvo of punches to try to finish the job. Hawes gains the wherewithal to embrace the grappling, and even though he cannot get the takedown, he gains valuable time clearing his head. The two clinch briefly, and push off, where both men trade heavy shots. Daukaus gets the better of an exchange, and Hawes bends over and slams his right hand into the torso. A cracking right hand puts Daukaus on roller skates for a moment, and the Philadelphia native crashes in to clinch and try to take the fight down. Daukaus looks to trip his man down, attack singles or otherwise plant Hawes on his back, but the Sanford MMA fighter stands tall and looks frustrated. Hawes frames off to nail Daukaus with a stern elbow, and this forces Daukaus to backpedal quickly. Hawes parries a strike to fire back at Daukaus, and he mixes things up with body strikes and head shots. “Megatron” notices his body work is starting to make a difference, and he lifts up a knee to the body. The knee does not rise high enough, and it clunks straight into Daukaus’ cup. Thirty seconds are all Daukaus needs to catch his breath, and Hawes picks up where he left off with body shots. As he targets the body and again with impunity, Daukaus shoots in low for a takedown to stop this. Hawes stuffs it and pushes Daukaus back, where he drills Daukaus with a right hand and a front kick that nails Daukaus in the head when Daukaus bends over. Hawes hunts Daukaus down with strikes until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Round 3
Smith calls in the doctor between rounds to check a cut around Daukaus’ eye, but there is no concern and the fight clocks in normally. Hawes loads up on several big shots to begin the round, alternating between the head and body with punches and kicks. Hawes works the body, catches a body kick, and puts Daukaus on his back. Daukaus throws up his legs quickly to defend with a triangle choke off his back, but “Megatron” laughs it off, breaks the position and postures up in Daukaus’ guard. There may have been an eye poke for Hawes, but he is warned in passing as Daukaus complains. Daukaus opens and closes his guard to try to find a better way out, all while Hawes pounds on him with short strikes. Individually, they may not be especially damaging, but they are adding up quickly as time ticks off the clock. Daukaus punches the back of the head a few times in passing, and he grimaces when his own blood trickles into his eye. Hawes steps into half guard, where he begins to unleash a series of punches to try to pound Daukaus out. Daukaus twists and nearly climbs to his feet, but Hawes pushes him back over and continues to work him over with left hands. Smith asks for Daukaus to keep moving and defend himself, and Hawes uses this as an opportunity to start slamming down elbows. Hawes continues to batter Daukaus with punches and elbows, and once more, Hawes appears to scrape the eye with his fingers. Daukaus appears miserable as blood is in his eyes, Hawes relentlessly punches him, and he cannot do anything but get Hawes back to his full guard. The 10-second clapper leads Daukaus to close his guard to lock Hawes down, where he survives and does not take much more punishment until the fight is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Kyle Daukaus via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.
Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.
The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 57 of 117 | 48% | 58 of 118 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 64 of 146 | 43% | 69 of 151 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 1 | 2:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 14 of 25 | 56% | 15 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 24 of 49 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 1 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 45 | 44% | 24 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 1:13 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 49 | 40% | 20 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 20 of 52 | 38% | 20 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 57 of 117 | 48% | 30 of 81 | 16 of 24 | 11 of 12 | 56 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 64 of 146 | 43% | 25 of 93 | 25 of 34 | 14 of 19 | 55 of 134 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 14 of 25 | 56% | 4 of 14 | 6 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 24 of 49 | 48% | 3 of 23 | 13 of 17 | 8 of 9 | 20 of 44 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 23 of 43 | 53% | 14 of 30 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 45 | 44% | 12 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 49 | 40% | 12 of 37 | 4 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 20 of 52 | 38% | 10 of 35 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 5 | 20 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.
Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.
Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.
Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.
The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.
Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 41 of 62 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 5:11 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 35 of 68 | 51% | 53 of 94 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 2 | 3:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 13 of 27 | 48% | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 1:24 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:13 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 11 of 19 | 57% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:55 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 21 of 37 | 56% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 6 | 12 of 12 | 19 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 35 of 68 | 51% | 24 of 53 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 24 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 5 of 13 | 38% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 13 of 27 | 48% | 8 of 19 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 11 of 19 | 57% | 9 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 14 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 14 of 21 | 66% | 2 of 7 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 13 of 19 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 11 of 22 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.
Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.
The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.
The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 13 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 1 | 13 of 20 | 65% | 23 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 3:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 7 of 11 | 63% | 6 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 13 of 20 | 65% | 11 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 5 |
Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.
Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.
Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.
Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.
Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.
The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 1 | 24 of 36 | 66% | 27 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 20 of 44 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 1:31 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brunno Ferreira | 24 of 36 | 66% | 16 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 18 of 40 | 45% | 12 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 |
Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.
Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.
Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.
Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.
Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.
Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.
The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 31 of 73 | 42% | 33 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 64 of 123 | 52% | 78 of 140 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 1 | 41 of 79 | 51% | 43 of 82 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Punahele Soriano | 0 | 23 of 44 | 52% | 35 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:43 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 31 of 73 | 42% | 18 of 56 | 9 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 30 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 64 of 123 | 52% | 24 of 79 | 23 of 27 | 17 of 17 | 60 of 116 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 35 | 7 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 41 of 79 | 51% | 15 of 51 | 17 of 19 | 9 of 9 | 37 of 72 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 9 of 26 | 34% | 5 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Punahele Soriano | 23 of 44 | 52% | 9 of 28 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.
Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.
Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.
Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.
Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.
The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 1 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abusupiyan Magomedov | 7 of 7 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.
Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.
Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.
Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.
The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.
Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.
The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 52 of 100 | 52% | 54 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 49 of 112 | 43% | 102 of 173 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 23 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 17 of 43 | 39% | 17 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 14 of 28 | 50% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 31 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:51 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 15 of 37 | 40% | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dwight Grant | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 54 of 78 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 52 of 100 | 52% | 35 of 79 | 7 of 9 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 97 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 49 of 112 | 43% | 23 of 81 | 7 of 8 | 19 of 23 | 35 of 88 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 20 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 23 of 35 | 65% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 17 of 43 | 39% | 7 of 30 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 15 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 14 of 28 | 50% | 5 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 14 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 20 of 38 | 52% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 16 | |
| 3 | Dustin Stoltzfus | 15 of 37 | 40% | 11 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dwight Grant | 12 of 31 | 38% | 4 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.
Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.
Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.
Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.
Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.
The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 51 of 72 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 7:27 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:03 | |
| 2 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 24 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:56 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gerald Meerschaert | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 3 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 3 of 12 | 25% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:11 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gerald Meerschaert | 12 of 32 | 37% | 8 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 11 of 22 | 50% | 8 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Gerald Meerschaert | 5 of 11 | 45% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gerald Meerschaert | 2 of 10 | 20% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 3 of 12 | 25% | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Grappler faces grappler in the preliminary headliner, as grizzled veteran Meerschaert (33-14, 8-6 UFC) comes in with more submission wins (25) than his opponent Stoltzfus (13-3, 0-2 UFC) has in total professional appearances (16). Keeping a close eye on the proceedings will be referee Mark Smith, who observes the middleweights come forward without any interest in touching gloves. Meerschaert lands first with an overhand right, and Stoltzfus greets him in the middle and throws back with bad intentions. “GM3” delivers a clean kick straight to the liver, and when Stoltzfus absorbs it, Meerschaert crashes forward to hit a double that sets Stoltzfus on his backside. Seated against the fence, Stoltzfus holds on Meerschaert’s neck with a guillotine choke, but Meerschaert is not remotely concerned as he pulls his opponent from away from the fence and steps over to try to claim guard. Stoltzfus clings to a shoulder lock from his back, and again, Meerschaert does not register this as he slowly works his way to secure full mount. Stoltzfus manages to get Meerschaert’s legs back to settle for half guard, and Meerschaert mounts him until he gets pulled back once more. Stoltzfus explodes back to his feet, where he searches for a single. Stoltzfus finds himself in a precarious position as Meerschaert grabs hold of a combined armbar and kneebar, but Stoltzfus is able to wriggle both limbs out so that he can take top position. Meerschaert scrambles when Stoltzfus starts to score with elbows, and he gets to his knees but Stoltzfus is ready for him. As soon as Stoltzfus puts Meerschaert on his back, Meerschaert reintroduces himself with a speedy armbar. Stoltzfus fights out of danger, where he gets into side control with Meerschaert on his side. Stoltzfus ends up in half guard delivering some ground-and-pound right to the bell, concluding the close first frame in top position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Round 2
The middleweights start throwing hands right out of the gate, when Meerschaert sneaking in a right hand and ducking back from a looping punch coming his way. They swing for the fences, and Meerschaert throws himself off-balance in the exchange. Stoltzfus throws a leg kick, and it gets caught, but he does not manage to do anything with it before setting it down. They both miss with high-intensity kicks, although Meerschaert is able to close the distance and deliver a knee square to the solar plexus. As they tie up, Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and he grounds Meerschaert and falls into a guillotine choke setup. Stoltzfus pops his head out without much concern, and he stacks Meerschaert up to prohibit him from setting up anything with his legs. Meerschaert pushes off with his feet on the thighs, but Stoltzfus is able to leap back down in time before “GM3” can stand. This time, Meerschaert closes his guard, and Stoltzfus keeps his weight pressed tightly on his foe. Every so often, Stoltzfus sits up to throw a strike, and he comes back down before Meerschaert can do anything off his back. Meerschaert looks for an armlock as Stoltzfus again stacks him up, but there is nothing doing while Stoltzfus clings to him in half guard. When Stoltzfus lands a few strikes from above, Meerschaert bursts back up and gets to his knees. Stoltzfus attacks with a brabo choke when Meerschaert is in this position, and he puts his leg above Meerschaert’s neck to set up a modified version of a Peruvian necktie. “GM3” defends against it, only for Stoltzfus to jump back down when Meerschaert is on his back to land some ground strikes. He ends the second round doing damage with ground-and-pound.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Round 3
Meerschaert blocks an immediate high kick when Stoltzfus attacks to begin the final round, and he lays into Stoltzfus with an overhand right. Stoltzfus turns him around and hits the double, and Meerschaert defends again with a guillotine choke that is suddenly tight. Stoltzfus turns and twists while the arm is beneath his chin, but he calmly, methodically slips his neck out of the choke. Meerschaert powers back up, and he blocks a punch to go for one of his own. The two tired men throw bombs, and Meerschaert lands and absorbs a strike coming back at him. Stoltzfus drives through with a double, putting Meerschaert on his back and landing in side control. Meerschaert once more scrambles, letting Stoltzfus slip out the back door so he can wind up on top. Stoltzfus stays on his knees as Meerschaert tries to take his back, until Stoltzfus suddenly turns to attack a leglock. “GM3” spins through it to free his ankle, and he aims to take Stoltzfus’ back and manages to get a hook in.
From there, the Roufusport grappling coach instantly attacks the neck, sinking in a rear-naked choke as the arm slides beneath the chin. Stoltzfus tries to punch Meerschaert twice from behind his head to do something, anything. He promptly bails on punching, and taps out as he would be put to sleep seconds later.
This is a big comeback for “GM3,” who has notched three submission wins in a row over three tough opponents.
The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.
Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.
Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.
Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.
Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.
The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.
Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.
The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Daukaus has excellent takedowns and ground control, while Stoltzfus can be taken down. He thinks Daukaus will have success on the mat but may not finish, as Stoltzfus has never been submitted or knocked out.
Daniel picks Stoltzfus as an underdog, believing he is underrated. He notes Daukaus has better striking and wrestling but Stoltzfus is a submission specialist with good wrestling. He thinks the line is too wide and that Stoltzfus has a real chance, especially if the fight goes deep.
The host picks Kyle Daukaus to win via submission, likely in the second round. He notes Daukaus has a reach advantage and strong jiu-jitsu, while Stoltzfus has takedown defense issues. He thinks the line is a bit wide but likes Daukaus to get it done on the ground.
The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Daukaus has faced better competition and has superior grappling scrambles, as shown against Brendan Allen. He doubts Stoltzfus can submit Daukaus and expects a competitive back-and-forth fight where Daukaus edges out the rounds.
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