UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020 · Middleweight · Completed
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Age 33
Height 6' 3"
Reach 76.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 6' 0"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Kyle Daukaus
3.32 SLpM
53.0% Str. Acc.
2.9 SApM
42.0% Str. Def.
2.08 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
82.0% TD Def.
2.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dustin Stoltzfus
3.3 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.23 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
2.08 TD Avg
37.0% TD Acc.
46.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Kyle Daukaus - Fight History
SCHED vs Bo Nickal
UFC Freedom 250 · Jun 14, 2026
AJ
AJ DeVito Expert picked Jun 3, 2026 (11 days before fight)

AJ is hesitant on picking Daukaus because Nickal is a freak athlete and elite wrestler. He mentions Daukaus is tricky out of southpaw but does not commit to a pick.

"The reason I'm hesitant on picking Dawis is Bone Nickel is still a freak athlete and an elite elite level wrestler."
Submission R1 0:50 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Gerald Meerschaert 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 1 8 of 11 72% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:17
Gerald Meerschaert 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 8 of 11 72% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 4
Gerald Meerschaert 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 8 of 11 72% 8 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 4
Gerald Meerschaert 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Gerald Meerschaert
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-375), Meerschaert (+295)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Daukaus immediately tags Meerschaert with a straight left. Daukaus wades in with a straight left hand that rocks Meerschaert, who is already in retreat mode. Meerschaert falls to the floor after absorbing another shot. Daukaus follows him down and tees off with hammerfists before locking in a brabo choke.
Daukaus powers Meerschaert to his back and applies the squeeze, and it’s only a matter of moments before the veteran middleweight is forced to tap out.
Daukaus now has back-to-back first round finishes since returning to the UFC.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Gerald Meerschaert via Submission (Brabo Choke) R1 0:50
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, noting that Gerald Meerschaert has poor takedown accuracy and hasn't taken anyone down in three fights. Daukaus is a good grappler with length and solid takedown defense. Angelo is confident but questions the -325 odds, suggesting Daukaus' last win was against a distracted opponent.

"Kyle's going to be the pick, but I hate that this dude could even be in the same room as these odds."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting his improved striking and power since being cut from the UFC. He criticizes Gerald Meerschaert's chin as 'dust' and his recent poor performances, including gassing out badly. Brady believes Daukaus is the better grappler and striker at this point and predicts a first-round knockout, referencing Daukaus's own claim that he will knock out Meerschaert.

first round knockout
"I'm going to go Kyle Dawkins to win this fight by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Meerschaert is on a losing streak and has been knocked out multiple times. He points out that Daukaus is bigger and has better striking. Cody thinks Daukaus will finish the fight inside the distance, possibly by TKO in the first round. He is confident in the pick.

inside the distance by TKO
"Daukaus is the guy to put that nail in the coffin, so inside the distance by TKO possibly in the first round."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Connor also picks Daukaus, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Meerschaert has lost a step and that Daukaus showed aggression and certainty in his last fight. However, he warns that Daukaus might get overly ambitious and get submitted, but overall trusts Daukaus to win.

Odds: Daukaus opened -260, currently -500.
"I think it's possible we might be getting a Kyle Dawkins, a young veteran run here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel believes Daukaus is on a resurgence with newfound confidence and power, as shown in his knockout of Michelle Pereira. He expects Daukaus to feast on an aging Meerschaert, who has been finished in recent fights. He predicts a first-round knockout for Daukaus.

first round knockout
"I think that DACA is going to come out here and feast on the carcass again. And so for that reason, I'm going to go Kyle Dawkins to come out here and actually get a first round knockout."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Lucrative James picks Kyle Daukaus to win, stating that Gerald Meerschaert is washed and Daukaus has better striking and grappling. He notes Daukaus' resurgence after a first-round KO in his return fight, and believes his takedown defense and top control will neutralize Meerschaert's submission threats. He predicts a finish or clear decision for Daukaus.

"I think Doras is going to win this one, boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is a better and younger version of Meerschaert. He can win whichever way he chooses, whether by knockout or submission. He wins inside the distance.

inside the distance
"I think Dawis can pretty much win this fight whichever way he chooses. ... I'm just going to go with the broad finishing method here and say inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, citing his size, striking, and submission defense. He notes that Meerschaert has poor durability and has been knocked out frequently. Paul believes Daukaus will win by TKO, possibly in the first round. He also mentions that Daukaus has looked good on the regional scene and is a big middleweight.

Daukaus by KO +215
"Daukaus by KO plus 215. I I just I just hit submit."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by TKO in round two. He notes that Gerald Meerschaert is on a three-fight losing streak and aging, while Daukaus is coming into his prime with improved striking and grappling. Daukaus' clinch work and power should be too much for Meerschaert, who may no longer have the craftiness to pull off a submission.

TKO in round 2
"I'll say TKO win in round two for Dorcas. I reckon he'll get a finish here over Mot."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Zane picks Daukaus confidently, noting that Meerschaert has lost a step and never had much physical edge. He thinks Daukaus has surprisingly fast hands and is too willing to grapple, but that he can be fast and slick. He believes Daukaus might be starting a veteran run and that Meerschaert is past his prime.

Odds: Daukaus opened -260, currently -500. Meerschaert opened +220, currently +385.
"I got to pick that cause he's always had surprisingly fast hands."
KO R1 0:43 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Michel Pereira 1 5 of 8 62% 7 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Pereira 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Michel Pereira vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The younger Daukaus brother returns to the UFC after a mixed first run in the Octagon followed a second middleweight title win in
Cage Fury Fighting Championships
after his release. Tasked with getting Daukaus’ second stint off to a bad start will be noted Brazilian madman Pereira. The referee on duty is Marc Goddard. Daukaus is southpaw, Pereira orthodox. Daukaus stalks forward and Pereira gives ground. Pereira nails Daukaus with a huge body kick, but he wears it well.
Seconds later, Daukaus clips the onrushing “Demolidor” with a short right hook to the jaw that drops him to his butt. Pereira tries to rally, but Daukaus pounces with a couple of glancing fists, then three jackhammer elbows that spur Goddard into action for the save.
Sensational knockout and a triumphant return for “The D’Arce Knight,” and for those keeping track at home, that makes two sub-minute finishes in the first four fights at UFC Shanghai. Yes, please.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Michel Pereira R1 0:43 via KO (Punches and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo is very confident in Michel Pereira, calling him an absolute beast with insane athleticism, real power, and solid wrestling and BJJ. He notes that Pereira is a better hammer than nail and that his recent loss was uncharacteristic, partly due to personal life issues. He dismisses Kyle Daukaus as not good at the UFC level despite regional wins, and expects Pereira to beat the brakes off him. He even says if Pereira doesn't win, cut them both.

"I think Michelle Pa comes in here, beats the absolute breaks off of Kyle Dawkins, and gets back on track."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira to win by first-round knockout, despite Pereira's recent poor performance against Abus Magomedov. He believes the matchup is favorable for Pereira because Daukaus is hittable and fragile, and Pereira has the striking advantage. He notes that Daukaus will struggle to take Pereira down and that Pereira should finish early with a body shot or flying knee.

Pereira by first round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira. I'll take him to win by first round knockout. Hopefully he doesn't bet against himself again."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host acknowledges it's tough to trust Pereira after his last gunshy performance, but thinks he has a good opponent here to show off his power. He notes that Daukaus has crumbled under power before and expects Pereira to find a knockout.

win by KO/TKO
"I think he has a good enough partner here that he can show off his power once again. And we've seen Dawkins crumble under plenty of power before and Pereira can provide that and I think we'll see Pereira find …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The MMA Guru picks Michel Pereira to win, expecting an easy first-round finish. He believes Pereira is on another level compared to Kyle Daukaus, who is decent but lacks standout ability in any area. He notes that Pereira is much better at striking and moves well, which should carry him past Daukaus. However, he acknowledges that if the fight goes later, Daukaus could find success in the clinch.

first round finish
"This should be a pretty easy first round finish for Muel Preer. I think he's on another level to Kyle Dorcas."
LOSS vs Eryk Anders
TKO (punches) R2 2:45 · UFC on ESPN: Thompson vs. Holland · Dec 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Eryk Anders 1 49 of 94 52% 97 of 159 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 37 of 79 46% 38 of 83 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Eryk Anders 1 29 of 62 46% 36 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:58
Kyle Daukaus 0 33 of 63 52% 33 of 63 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:06
2 Eryk Anders 0 20 of 32 62% 61 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Kyle Daukaus 0 4 of 16 25% 5 of 20 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Eryk Anders 49 of 94 52% 27 of 70 14 of 14 8 of 10 23 of 55 6 of 8 20 of 31
Kyle Daukaus 37 of 79 46% 14 of 55 8 of 9 15 of 15 35 of 76 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Eryk Anders 29 of 62 46% 12 of 43 9 of 9 8 of 10 20 of 46 5 of 7 4 of 9
Kyle Daukaus 33 of 63 52% 13 of 43 8 of 8 12 of 12 31 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Eryk Anders 20 of 32 62% 15 of 27 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 9 1 of 1 16 of 22
Kyle Daukaus 4 of 16 25% 1 of 12 0 of 1 3 of 3 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Eryk Anders vs. Kyle Daukaus
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-215), Anders (+185)

Round 1
Middleweights open up the main card in a fight that will get one man back up to .500 inside the Octagon. Whether that is former light heavyweight Anders (14-7, 1 NC; 6-7, 1 NC UFC) or submission specialist Daukaus (11-3, 1 NC; 2-3, 1 NC UFC), that remains to be seen. They bump fists in front of referee Keith Peterson, who clocks them in right after ejecting nonsense from the Amway Center. Anders strikes first with a body kick, and Daukaus strides forward with two punches and two low kicks in response. Anders stutter-steps his way forward, and Daukaus intercepts him with a few punches and makes Anders turn around. As they trade leather, commentators Michael Bisping and Daniel Cormier talk about popular television shows. Daukaus gets off a knee to the body, and he shoots in for a double but is stuffed by the brick wall former football player. Daukaus sticks out a jab, and when he kicks the body, Anders lifts him up and throws him to the ground like a sack of potatoes. Anders lords over his grounded opponent with several slapping low kicks, and Daukaus considers a leglock before Anders hops away. Daukaus allows his opponent to adjust his shorts, and they touch ‘em up before re-engaging. Daukaus feints and gets kicked, and he wings a left hand over the top that slams into the side of Anders’ head. Anders backs his man up and punches the body, prompting Daukaus to spring into action. The Philadelphia native leaps forward, and after landing a few, Anders clips him with a right hand and sends Daukaus tumbling to the mat. Anders considers kicking the legs a few times before letting Daukaus back up, and Daukaus takes a few deep breaths when coming back to his feet. Anders is swinging heavily, and Daukaus does not shy away from these exchanges as he similarly slugs back. Daukaus scores thudding hooks on the side of Anders’ head, but Anders is tough and throws back with a ferocious uppercut that snaps the head back. Anders reddens the nose with a one-two, and he continues to push the pace as he works the body and head. The fighters rush together, and the crown of Anders’ head slams square into Daukaus’ face and drops him to his knees. Peterson sees it and immediately calls it, and he informs the outside officials that it was an accidental clash of heads. Daukaus takes the time he needs and gets right back to it, but Anders is on him and belts him with a few punches with a left hand that send Daukaus straight back to the floor. As Daukaus attempts to scramble and look for some kind of late submission, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Anders
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Anders

Round 2
Anders senses that Daukaus may not be fully recovered, and he immediately pushes the pace to start Round 2 with a vengeance. A few heavy strikes prompt “The D’Arce Knight” to shoot for a takedown, and he chains singles into doubles as Anders gets away with a fence grab. Anders slugs Daukaus on the side of the head, and these punches may be hurting Daukaus, as he lets go and flops to his back. Anders kicks the legs a few times, and this time, he lowers himself to the ground to drop a few hammerfists. Anders lands several standing-to-ground punches in rapid succession, and Daukaus kicks him back. Peterson lets Daukaus stand back up, and
Anders coils his fist and cracks Daukaus in the face with a brutal left hand. Daukaus awkwardly slumps to his knees and half-heartedly pursues a low single takedown, only to get shoved to his back, as Anders beats him down with right hand after merciless right hand. The hammerfists and punches continue to get through while Daukaus is shelled up, and Peterson has no choice but to call it on account of rain.
The knockout victory for Anders is his first finish in almost three and a half years, while he also snaps a two-fight skid in the process.

The Official Result
Eryk Anders def. Kyle Daukaus R2 2:45 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Angelo picks Eryk Anders as a solid underdog, expecting him to bully Kyle Daukaus with better wrestling and power. He criticizes Daukaus's chin and mediocre striking, calling him a 'jiu jitsu nerd' who can snatch submissions but lacks wrestling control. He believes Anders will avoid submissions and take Daukaus's head off with strikes.

Calls Anders one of the best underdogs on the card
"I am going to go Eric Anders though I think he's going to come in here just bully the hell out of Kyle Dawkins he's gonna Big Brother him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Eryk Anders

Big Brady picks the underdog Anders, citing his takedown defense (75%) and power advantage on the feet. He notes Daukaus is hittable (40% striking defense) and not a great wrestler. He expects Anders to keep the fight standing and win a close decision, though he acknowledges it could go either way.

Anders wins by decision
"I actually like the dog here in Eric Anders... I will take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody provides a detailed breakdown of Anders' career, calling him untrustworthy. He thinks Daukaus will land combinations and has a grappling advantage. He expects a boring decision win for Daukaus.

"I just feel like delkus is going to land the combinations when it is in the open field when it's up against the cage he's going to be landing those short shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Nov 30, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel Levi leans Daukaus to slightly out-hustle Anders, but he has concerns about Daukaus not putting a stamp on fights and Anders' physicality. He notes Anders' lack of activity and tendency to not pull the trigger. He picks Daukaus but is not confident.

"I uh I'm gonna lean with Kyle Dockers to come out here and just slightly out hustle Eric Anders"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 29, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host leans towards Daukaus but is not confident enough to bet the minus 200 line. He thinks Daukaus may have a slight striking advantage and could win by decision, but he is concerned about Anders' strength and grappling. He prefers the over 2.5 rounds as a bet, expecting a clinch-heavy fight that goes to decision.

over 2.5 rounds -175; Daukaus by decision
"I do like Kyle docus to get his hand raise and for him to get his hand race via decision but I want none of that minus 200th line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 1, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting Anders' inconsistency and poor performances. He thinks Daukaus has a grappling edge and will land more strikes. He is cautious about betting but expects Daukaus to win cleanly.

"I'm just not betting Eric Anders um on the back on the back uh half of this part of his career"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus, believing Eryk Anders has lost his touch. He notes Anders looked bad against Jun Yong Park and Darren Stewart, while Daukaus has more potential and looked good against Jamie Pickett. He predicts Daukaus will win a decision with grappling and submission attempts.

Daukaus by decision (29-28)
"I'm gonna go with Kyle Dorcas"
LOSS vs Roman Dolidze
KO (knee and punches) R1 1:13 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roman Dolidze 2 8 of 15 53% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Kyle Daukaus 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roman Dolidze 2 8 of 15 53% 10 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Kyle Daukaus 0 4 of 9 44% 5 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roman Dolidze 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 8
Kyle Daukaus 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roman Dolidze 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 8
Kyle Daukaus 4 of 9 44% 1 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Roman Dolidze
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Daukaus (-240), Dolidze (+195)

Round 1
A 14-fight card – and admittedly a solid one for the ESPN airwaves, relative to recent offers on that flagship network – has dwindled to 13 with the co-main event scratched. We still begin the day’s festivities in the Texas capital city of Austin, with a middleweight matchup of power vs. technique starting things off. The massive Georgian Dolidze (9-1, 3-1 UFC) will battle it out against sneaky submission specialist Daukaus (11-2, 1 NC; 2-2, 1 NC UFC) in a matchup that could put one within spitting distance of the rankings, and referee Mike Beltran has the honors of the first fight of the card. There is a side glove touch to start the night, and Daukaus leads off with a slapping low kick. Dolidze walks through another as he stares down in opponent with bad intentions, and he ducks forward to throw a left hook only to bang into Daukaus’ head. There is no cut on either man, and Beltran lets him recover for a moment. When they reset, a short left hook from Dolidze shakes Daukaus up, and Daukaus falls to his back. As he recovers, Daukaus shoots in for a takedown while his legs simultaneously abandon him. Dolidze’s takedown defense holds up well as he jams Daukaus up against the wall, and Daukaus powers his way back up to his feet and may have grabbed the fence on the way.
After a clinch exchange, the Georgian lifts up a high knee that blasts into Daukaus’ chin, crashing into it with a sickening thud. Daukaus crumbles to the mat on his back, totally annihilated from the blow, and he instinctively covers his face with his arms even if he might not be with it. Dolidze seals the deal with a short barrage of punches, leading Beltran to step in and stop the fight.
That’s one heck of a way to start things off tonight.

The Official Result
Roman Dolidze def. Kyle Daukaus R1 1:13 via KO (Knee and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Roman Dolidze

Angelo picks Roman Dolidze because he is a world champion grappler, far superior to Kyle Daukaus in pure grappling. He notes Dolidze's power in his hands and believes the fight comes down to takedowns and takedown defense. He acknowledges Dolidze's cardio issues and low takedown defense (37%) but thinks Dolidze can win early rounds. He suggests a plus 3.5 round bet as a safer option.

plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard)
"i honestly i like roman here we have grappler versus grappler roman's the better pure grappler and he's got power in his hands plus 175 money line that's probably an okay bet if you agree with me but i plus …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Dolidze has power but lacks volume and cardio, while Daukaus has better striking volume, cardio, and fight IQ. He also highlights Dolidze's poor fight IQ, such as dropping for leg locks and giving up positions, which Daukaus can exploit as a black belt.

decision
"I think kyle dawkis has all the tools to win this fight he's younger he's bigger the cardio the volume the fight iq i think everything's checking out for kyle dawg is to go out here and get a decision …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Daukaus, citing his improving striking, BJJ, and takedown defense. He thinks Dolidze's striking is poor and his grappling is overrated. He expects Daukaus to win on the feet or survive on the ground and take over late.

"i got kyle dougas here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daniel Levi leans Kyle Daukaus, thinking his hands have improved and he can grind out a win if he avoids Dolidze's leg locks. He notes Dolidze has power and a leg lock game, but if he doesn't secure a submission, he ends up on his back. Levi sees Daukaus as slightly ahead but the -265 price demands domination, which he doesn't expect. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, with Dolidze at +220 having value.

Daukaus -265 is too high; Dolidze +220 has value; dog or pass
"i need domination from -265 like i need guarantees of a finish i need guarantees of a 30-27 i don't have those guarantees that makes it a dog or pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Daukaus' improvements and Dolidze's lack of striking and cardio. He thinks Daukaus is the better fighter and should win.

"no no disagreements on my end"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru leans towards Kyle Daukaus, citing Dolidze's poor performance in his last fight where he struggled against an opponent he should have handled easily. He believes Daukaus is younger, improving, and capable in the clinch and at range. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Daukaus, noting that Dolidze's best wins have not been impressive.

"i am going to be leaning towards kyle dawkis here i think he's good against a cage that seems to be roman de lizzi's best part of his game"
WIN vs Jamie Pickett
Submission (D'Arce choke) R1 4:59 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Hill · Feb 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kyle Daukaus 0 6 of 9 66% 19 of 29 3 of 6 50% 2 0 4:12
Jamie Pickett 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kyle Daukaus 6 of 9 66% 4 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jamie Pickett 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Jamie Pickett

Round 1
Receiving an upgrade to the co-main event slot, Daukaus (10-2, 1 NC; 1-2, 1 NC UFC) and Pickett (13-6, 2-2 UFC) will handle their business at a pre-planned 195-pound catchweight due to the latter taking the fight on short notice. This fun stylistic clash will draw officiating from referee Herb Dean, and the fighters gladly touch gloves as they are happy to be fighting tonight. Pickett strikes first with few low kicks, and Daukaus replies in kind. Right after Daukaus wings a right hand, he changes levels to go after a takedown. Although Pickett stays upright on the first attempt, Daukaus sucks his legs out beneath him and drags him down. From his back, “The Nightwolf” holds on to a guillotine choke, and Daukaus wisely comes around with his own shoulder to set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Pickett lets go of his arm grip so that he does not himself get submitted, and instead sits up and turns on his hip to try to stand back up. Daukaus keeps his man trapped beneath him, smacking him in the face with a few right hands, but Pickett explodes out of the position and powers back to his feet. Pickett tries to let his hands go when he gets upright, only to find Daukaus right on him to go hunting for a single. The Philadelphia native successfully lifts Pickett’s leg all the way up in the air before slamming him to the mat, and he is quick to secure half guard. When Pickett sits up and turns like before, Daukaus times this to try to take his back. Pickett simply stands up from this position, and he shucks Daukaus off of his back. Daukaus does not let up, remaining tied to Pickett until he lets go of his own accord. Out of nowhere, Daukaus drills Pickett with a few punches square on the chin, and when Pickett is shaken up, Daukaus leaps forward to snag another takedown.
Pickett falls to his back, and when he rolls to his side, Daukaus quickly attacks with a sneaky brabo choke from a difficult angle. In half guard, Daukaus keeps the choke snaked around Pickett’s neck and it is tight. With no way to get out, Pickett wriggles his arm free so that he can tap out on Daukaus’ side barely one second before the horn blares.
There is a bit of confusion as to the timing of the stoppage, or whether Pickett reached the end of the round, but it appears that he tapped out just before the bell. What a way to win a fight!

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus def. Jamie Pickett R1 4:59 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 13, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jamie Pickett

Angelo leans toward Jamie Pickett, citing his recent performance against Joseph Holmes where he showed volume and mixed in takedowns. He notes that if Pickett fights aggressively and uses takedowns, he beats Daukaus almost every time. However, he acknowledges Pickett's gun-shy tendencies could be a problem.

"i'm gonna do a slight lean to jamie pickett because we just saw that version of him three weeks ago"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus, noting Pickett has low output and has been outgrappled by lesser fighters. He believes Daukaus has advantages on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a submission in the first or second round.

win by submission in first or second round
"give me tylenol dawkis to submit jamie pickett I'll say in that first or second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Kyle Daukaus, citing his well-rounded skill set and superior grappling. He notes that Daukaus has shown good moments in his UFC fights, including a strong performance against Kevin Holland that was ruled a no contest due to an accidental headbutt. Cody believes Daukaus will have faster hand speed and should be able to take the fight to the mat, where he has a sizable advantage. He also mentions that Jamie Pickett's game is not well-rounded and relies on smothering opponents against the cage.

"yeah much of the same the only thing that could maybe cause for concern is if jamie pickett just spam clinches up against the cage"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Levi leans toward Daukaus but thinks the line is too wide, suggesting it should be around -175. He acknowledges Pickett's momentum and confidence from two wins, but notes Pickett's wins were over lower-level opponents. Levi expects Daukaus to win a close decision, possibly an ugly fight, and mentions Daukaus should finish but might not.

line should be -175 to -165; Daukaus by close decision
"i slightly lean them but not by that much i think it's a dog or pass situation but i'll take darkest by a close decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Daukaus is better everywhere: clinch, grappling, and developing striking. Pickett has physical tools but lacks output and fight IQ. Daukaus should control the fight with takedowns and either submit or decision Pickett. The sub/decision combo at -165 is a great line. A knockout is unlikely, so the method is between submission and decision.

Daukaus by sub or decision (-165), Daukaus by decision (+120)
"fanduel has done buckets by sub or decision at -165 and i think that's a hell of a line"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul picks Daukaus, noting that Pickett is low-volume and doesn't use his long reach well. He thinks Daukaus's path to victory is to take the fight to the mat, where he should have a clear advantage. Paul acknowledges that Pickett could spam clinches, but overall he sees Daukaus as a rightful favorite at -250.

"i think the real path to victory here for kyle dawkis is take this fight to the mat where he should have a sizable advantage"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by 29-28 decision in a clinch-heavy fight. He believes Daukaus has better technique on the feet and superior jiu-jitsu, and can neutralize Pickett's cage-grappling game. He notes Daukaus has a good chin and has never been finished as a pro, so Pickett's power is less of a threat. He expects a boring clinch fest with Daukaus edging out the rounds.

decision 29-28
"i'm going to go with kyle dawkis here over jamie pickett ... i think he's going to be able to sort of neutralize the cage holding game of jamie picker"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
No Contest (accidental clash of heads) R1 3:43 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Walker · Oct 02, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 3 of 7 42% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Kyle Daukaus 0 9 of 13 69% 19 of 25 1 of 5 20% 3 0 2:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 3 of 7 42% 24 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:04
Kyle Daukaus 0 9 of 13 69% 19 of 25 1 of 5 20% 3 0 2:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 9 of 13 69% 5 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 4 of 4 3 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 9 of 13 69% 5 of 9 3 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 4 4 of 4 3 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland

Round 1
In the co-main event, two middleweights who have struggled as of late in Holland (21-7, 8-4 UFC) and Daukaus (10-2, 1-2 UFC) will pair off in hopes of staying afloat on the ever-growing roster. Their finish rates are 1% apart, with Holland preferring the knockout while all of Daukaus’ wins inside the distance have come by submission, most of which from a brabo choke. Can Daukaus give Holland fits on the ground, or has “Trailblazer” ironed out those deficiencies? Like referee Dan Miragliotta, we are about to find out after the two touch gloves. Holland begins with a slapping low kick, and he darts forward with a big right hand. Daukaus responds with a few right hands, and he charges in for a takedown try. Holland is ready for it, and he gets pushed to the fence and possibly kneed low. Holland keeps himself upright as he starts talking to the commentary team, and he smiles and boxes Daukaus’ ears. Holland gets dragged to a knee, but he pops back up without concern. Daukaus looks to trip him down, and “Trailblazer” keeps his balance and starts talking more trash. Holland breaks free and finds himself in submission danger when Daukaus pulls for a standing guillotine choke. Holland provides humorous commentary to commentator Daniel Cormier’s commentary, making himself laugh while punching his foe in the side. Daukaus holds on in this stalemate position as neither can advance, and Holland stomps the toes several times until Miragliotta breaks them up.
Holland gets off a one-two, and when he leans forward to strike, the two clash heads and Holland falls forward to the ground in a heap. Miragliotta calls for a replay and Daukaus hunts for a brabo choke that he turns into a guillotine. Holland gets back to his knees and stands up, but Daukaus is on his back and he snares a rear-naked choke. The choke is incredibly tight, and Holland grimaces and taps out.
There is immediate controversy as Holland was clearly compromised by the clash of heads. There is no bad blood, as they hug it out while the referees and commission officials talk over the next steps. Replay official Herb Dean informs Miragliotta that he could assign the result as a no contest depending on how he feels and reviews the sequence. A lengthy period of confusion follows, and Holland asks for them to run it back no matter the final result. Daukaus is fine with this. It appears that this fight will not be a win for Daukaus, and it is good for the fighters involved that instant replay has been implemented.

The Official Result
Kyle Daukaus vs. Kevin Holland is ruled a No Contest (Accidental Clash of Heads) R1 3:43
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Angelo picks Kyle Daukaus, believing his grappling will be enough to take down Kevin Holland, who has shown zero takedown defense. He notes that Daukaus is a very good grappler with solid jiu-jitsu, while Holland is a sniper on his feet with good BJJ but no wrestling. Angelo thinks Daukaus will stick to a game plan, get the fight to the ground, and control from there. He likes Daukaus at plus 120 moneyline and in DraftKings at $7,700. He hates the monkey knife fight line and will not touch it.

moneyline bet at +120, considering submission or inside the distance bets
"kyle dawkis is the pick i will probably throw a money line bet on him plus 120 i like"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 30, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by knockout, seeing this as a good bounce-back spot. He notes Holland's losses came against elite wrestlers (Marvin Vettori, Derek Brunson) who are far better than Daukaus. Daukaus has poor striking defense (39%) and is very hittable, while Holland is a black belt himself and has shown good grappling against Gerald Meerschaert. Brady thinks Holland will stuff takedowns or get back up, and on the feet it's night and day. He predicts a knockout due to Daukaus's poor striking defense.

Holland by KO
"i'll take kevin hall in a win okay kevin holland to win oh man i don't know i'll say knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Cody picks Daukaus as a dog, citing Holland's poor takedown defense and mental fragility. He notes that Holland has shown no ability to keep fights standing and gets taken down easily, even by mediocre wrestlers. Daukaus has good grappling and should be able to take Holland down and control him on the ground. He also mentions that Holland's long frame makes it hard for him to scramble back to his feet.

"this is a dogger pass i know i consider the the main event to be a potential dog or pass but i'm taking challenge with santos this is a doctor pass and if you're going to give me a plus …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland, believing he is in a different class than Kyle Daukaus. He acknowledges Holland's wrestling issues exposed by top-five opponents but thinks Daukaus is not at that level to exploit them. Levi notes Daukaus is tough and durable but expects Holland's dynamic striking and reach to be too much. He suggests the line is a discount due to Holland's recent losses and that he would be a bigger favorite otherwise.

"i kind of view kevin holland currently in a different class in a different league than kyle dawkins"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Oct 1, 2021 (1 day before fight)

I'm staying away from this fight. Holland has huge grappling holes, but Daukaus isn't a great wrestler either. I think the over 2.5 rounds is interesting because both guys are durable and it might be a low-output fight. I don't have a strong pick either way.

Over 2.5 rounds -155
"This is a stay away fight all in all"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Paul leans towards Holland but dislikes the -160 price. He acknowledges Holland's advantages on the feet but is concerned about his takedown defense and mental lapses. He notes that Daukaus is not a world-class wrestler but should be able to get the fight to the ground. He ultimately does not make a firm pick but seems to favor the dog.

"i'm leaning towards kevin holland here i just don't really like the the -160 price tag attached to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 27, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, citing his reach advantage and Daukaus' poor stand-up. He notes Daukaus was dominated by Phil Hawes and struggled to take him down. Holland has been training wrestling and should stuff takedowns. He predicts Holland will get a second-round KO.

Holland by KO in round 2
"i'm going to be going with kevin holland here i trust him to get this one done"
LOSS vs Phil Hawes
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Rodriguez vs. Waterson · May 08, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Phil Hawes 0 66 of 101 65% 157 of 210 2 of 4 50% 1 0 5:34
Kyle Daukaus 0 28 of 82 34% 52 of 113 0 of 7 0% 0 1 4:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Phil Hawes 0 16 of 22 72% 32 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:33
Kyle Daukaus 0 5 of 21 23% 18 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:56
2 Phil Hawes 0 29 of 45 64% 48 of 65 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Kyle Daukaus 0 22 of 51 43% 30 of 60 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Phil Hawes 0 21 of 34 61% 77 of 106 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:26
Kyle Daukaus 0 1 of 10 10% 4 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Phil Hawes 66 of 101 65% 42 of 75 23 of 25 1 of 1 33 of 57 18 of 19 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 28 of 82 34% 20 of 68 6 of 11 2 of 3 26 of 78 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Phil Hawes 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 11 10 of 11 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 5 of 21 23% 2 of 15 2 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 0 of 1
2 Phil Hawes 29 of 45 64% 15 of 30 14 of 15 0 of 0 21 of 37 8 of 8 0 of 0
Kyle Daukaus 22 of 51 43% 17 of 44 4 of 5 1 of 2 21 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Phil Hawes 21 of 34 61% 17 of 30 4 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 25
Kyle Daukaus 1 of 10 10% 1 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Phil Hawes vs. Kyle Daukaus

Round 1
The new main card opener sees a middleweight clash between representatives of rival states New Jersey and Pennsylvania, as Hawes (10-2, 2-0 UFC) will ply his knockout-friendly trade against submission specialist Daukaus (10-1, 1-1 UFC). The third man in the cage for a fight that may not last long is referee Mark Smith, and there is no serious glove touch before the two get down to business. The blonde-haired Hawes comes out aggressively, throwing bombs and backing Daukaus up immediately. Hawes has a kick clip the cup, and there is a pause for just a second or two. Daukaus adjusts himself and throws back with heavy leather, and Hawes is either hurt or off-balance, as he slips back. Hawes interrupts an advancing Daukaus with a front kick, and he goes back to stalking the Philadelphia native down and throwing big strikes. Out of nowhere, Hawes ducks down, scoops Daukaus up and slams him down. Daukaus defends off his back with a guillotine choke, but he is immediately in danger for the Von Preux choke. Hawes recognizes this and presses his shoulder down, but he cannot finish it. Instead, Daukaus uses pure power to roll Hawes over and put him on his back. “Megatron” slides right into danger with a choke attempt from Daukaus, but he scrambles and gets out of harm’s way. When he gets to his knees, Daukaus takes his back. Hawes defends the hooks, powers back to his feet, and is quick to fight off a single leg takedown attempt from Daukaus. When he does not land it, Daukaus drops to his knees for a double, and that too comes up short. Hawes, while keeping himself upright, is landing short strikes to the body and head to make Daukaus think twice about his position. Hawes lifts Daukaus up with a knee to the chest, but he cannot get the Pennsylvanian off of him. Daukaus embraces the grind, pressing Hawes into the wire and putting his full body weight on his man. Both men try to get off elbows, but neither are successful. Daukaus sells out for a double, and Hawes sprawls against the cage and keeps his balance to fight off this attempt. Hawes introduces his knee to Daukaus’ torso, and the two separate with seconds to spare. Neither throw anything of note until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Daukaus

Round 2
The middleweights rush out of their corners to meet in the middle, but it does not take long for Hawes to push the pace and start backing Daukaus up against the fence. Daukaus tries to spring forward with a kick to the body, and Hawes interrupts him and lands a few punches. Daukaus swings a spinning strike, and Hawes does not completely avoid it. “Megatron” is suddenly rocked, and Daukaus lays into him with a salvo of punches to try to finish the job. Hawes gains the wherewithal to embrace the grappling, and even though he cannot get the takedown, he gains valuable time clearing his head. The two clinch briefly, and push off, where both men trade heavy shots. Daukaus gets the better of an exchange, and Hawes bends over and slams his right hand into the torso. A cracking right hand puts Daukaus on roller skates for a moment, and the Philadelphia native crashes in to clinch and try to take the fight down. Daukaus looks to trip his man down, attack singles or otherwise plant Hawes on his back, but the Sanford MMA fighter stands tall and looks frustrated. Hawes frames off to nail Daukaus with a stern elbow, and this forces Daukaus to backpedal quickly. Hawes parries a strike to fire back at Daukaus, and he mixes things up with body strikes and head shots. “Megatron” notices his body work is starting to make a difference, and he lifts up a knee to the body. The knee does not rise high enough, and it clunks straight into Daukaus’ cup. Thirty seconds are all Daukaus needs to catch his breath, and Hawes picks up where he left off with body shots. As he targets the body and again with impunity, Daukaus shoots in low for a takedown to stop this. Hawes stuffs it and pushes Daukaus back, where he drills Daukaus with a right hand and a front kick that nails Daukaus in the head when Daukaus bends over. Hawes hunts Daukaus down with strikes until the horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hawes
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hawes

Round 3
Smith calls in the doctor between rounds to check a cut around Daukaus’ eye, but there is no concern and the fight clocks in normally. Hawes loads up on several big shots to begin the round, alternating between the head and body with punches and kicks. Hawes works the body, catches a body kick, and puts Daukaus on his back. Daukaus throws up his legs quickly to defend with a triangle choke off his back, but “Megatron” laughs it off, breaks the position and postures up in Daukaus’ guard. There may have been an eye poke for Hawes, but he is warned in passing as Daukaus complains. Daukaus opens and closes his guard to try to find a better way out, all while Hawes pounds on him with short strikes. Individually, they may not be especially damaging, but they are adding up quickly as time ticks off the clock. Daukaus punches the back of the head a few times in passing, and he grimaces when his own blood trickles into his eye. Hawes steps into half guard, where he begins to unleash a series of punches to try to pound Daukaus out. Daukaus twists and nearly climbs to his feet, but Hawes pushes him back over and continues to work him over with left hands. Smith asks for Daukaus to keep moving and defend himself, and Hawes uses this as an opportunity to start slamming down elbows. Hawes continues to batter Daukaus with punches and elbows, and once more, Hawes appears to scrape the eye with his fingers. Daukaus appears miserable as blood is in his eyes, Hawes relentlessly punches him, and he cannot do anything but get Hawes back to his full guard. The 10-second clapper leads Daukaus to close his guard to lock Hawes down, where he survives and does not take much more punishment until the fight is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Hawes (29-27 Hawes)

The Official Result
Phil Hawes def. Kyle Daukaus via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-26, 29-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Big Brady picks Hawes but is not confident, noting Hawes is typically first-round-or-bust. He thinks Hawes needs to land an early knockout, otherwise Daukaus will take over. Brady likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' and suggests live betting Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish in the first round. He mentions Hawes's last fight went to decision but that was an anomaly. He picks Hawes by first-round knockout.

Fight doesn't go to decision; live bet Daukaus if Hawes doesn't finish first round
"I'm going to take cause to get that first round knockout might be a live betting situation but the prop i really do like is that fight doesn't go to decision."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 6, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Phil Hawes

Daniel Levi picks Phil Hawes, arguing that Hawes is underappreciated and has been rushed against tough competition. He notes Hawes' D1 wrestling, freak athleticism, and one-punch knockout power. He believes Hawes learned from his past mistakes and will win a decision, as he did against Imavov. He views Daukaus as an average athlete and black belt, and thinks Hawes can lean on him and get takedowns.

"i think phil has is so underappreciated to a point where like when this guy was three and noah as a pro they put him in there with andrew sanchez like what"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host favors Kyle Daukaus, believing his jiu-jitsu and cardio will be the difference. He expects Daukaus to survive Hawes' early power and then submit him later. He likes the under 2.5 rounds and Daukaus by submission prop.

under 2.5 -150, Daukaus by sub +250
"i really like dalkist in the spot kind of surprised at the land movement as in terms of making it closer of a pickum fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 3, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus over Phil Hawes, noting that Daukaus is the slight favorite. He believes Daukaus's smothering clinch game and technical stand-up will overwhelm Hawes, who showed a hole in his last fight against the cage. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision, with Daukaus winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision, 29-28
"i'm gonna be going with kyle alkaus here ... i just think it's a bad matchup"
Dustin Stoltzfus - Fight History
LOSS vs Kelvin Gastelum
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kelvin Gastelum 1 57 of 117 48% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 64 of 146 43% 69 of 151 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kelvin Gastelum 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 24 of 49 48% 25 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:47
2 Kelvin Gastelum 1 23 of 43 53% 23 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 45 44% 24 of 49 0 of 3 0% 0 1 1:13
3 Kelvin Gastelum 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kelvin Gastelum 57 of 117 48% 30 of 81 16 of 24 11 of 12 56 of 116 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 64 of 146 43% 25 of 93 25 of 34 14 of 19 55 of 134 4 of 5 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kelvin Gastelum 14 of 25 56% 4 of 14 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 24 of 49 48% 3 of 23 13 of 17 8 of 9 20 of 44 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kelvin Gastelum 23 of 43 53% 14 of 30 6 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 45 44% 12 of 35 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 38 0 of 0 5 of 7
3 Kelvin Gastelum 20 of 49 40% 12 of 37 4 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 20 of 52 38% 10 of 35 8 of 12 2 of 5 20 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Angelo picks Kelvin Gastelum, calling him a great wrestler and striker with an unbelievable chin, but wasted talent due to poor work ethic. He says this is the easiest matchup Kelvin has had in five years, and he should win the striking exchanges and eat whatever comes back. He notes concern about Kelvin's takedown defense after the Sean Brady fight, but thinks he should be a better wrestler than Stoltzfus. He says the line should be wider but isn't because people can't trust Kelvin.

The line is honestly should be wider and it just isn't because people can't trust him.
"I do think that Kelvin is going to win here, so he's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Big Brady picks Gastelum as the better striker who should keep the fight standing. He notes Stoltzfus is not on Gastelum's level and that a loss would be Gastelum's worst. He predicts a decision win but says he won't bet on it.

Decision win; will not bet
"Gastelum by decision for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Connor picks Gastelum hesitantly, noting that Stoltzfus is glacially slow and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he warns that Gastelum could have a Punahele Soriano-like performance where he fails to impose himself and gets outworked. Connor believes Gastelum's athleticism and scrambling will be key, but he is not confident.

"I'm taking Gastelum, but I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Despite Gastelum's inconsistency, the host sees this as a fight he should win. He expects Gastelum to showcase his takedown defense and pressure with power striking, leading to a knockout in the second or third round.

win by knockout in second or third round
"Look for him to uh really do a good job with his takedown defense and really put the pressure on with the power striking. And I think that will eventually lead to a Calvin Gassam knockout either in the second …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

The MMA Guru picks Kelvin Gastelum, believing he has a clear advantage in technical ability and power. He notes Stoltzfus has been knocked out multiple times and lacks the tools to drop or ragdoll Gastelum. He predicts a TKO win in the middle of the fight, possibly late first or second round, as Gastelum pressures and finishes a tiring Stoltzfus.

TKO win late first or second round
"Kelvin Gastelum getting this one done. ... This is a free TKO win late in the first round, in the second round at some point."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Sep 11, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Kelvin Gastelum

Zane picks Gastelum hesitantly, acknowledging that Stoltzfus could replicate his win over Punahele Soriano by pressuring and outworking Gastelum. He notes that Gastelum is still athletic and durable but has shown a tendency to not consider bad positions. Zane believes Gastelum's scrambling ability and power will be enough, but he can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight.

"I suppose I'm still gonna pick Kelvin Gastelum here. But I can easily see this fight looking like the Soriano fight."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Morales · May 17, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 21 of 37 56% 41 of 62 2 of 5 40% 2 0 5:11
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 35 of 68 51% 53 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 2 3:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 5 of 13 38% 10 of 18 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:14
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 13 of 27 48% 21 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:24
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 2 of 3 66% 14 of 18 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 19 57% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:55
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 21 66% 17 of 26 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:44
Nursulton Ruziboev 0 11 of 22 50% 11 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 21 of 37 56% 5 of 19 4 of 6 12 of 12 19 of 34 1 of 2 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 35 of 68 51% 24 of 53 8 of 11 3 of 4 24 of 52 1 of 1 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 5 of 13 38% 2 of 10 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 13 of 27 48% 8 of 19 2 of 4 3 of 4 11 of 25 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 19 57% 9 of 17 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 14
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 21 66% 2 of 7 2 of 4 10 of 10 13 of 19 1 of 2 0 of 0
Nursulton Ruziboev 11 of 22 50% 7 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 11, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev confidently, calling him an absolute beast. He highlights Ruziboev's massive 6'5" frame, wrestling and grappling prowess, and a good chin. He notes that Ruziboev's only UFC loss was to Buckley at 170 lbs, which is credible. Angelo expects Ruziboev to be patient, eat a few shots, and then pour it on later. He finds the -280 odds affordable and suggests the over might be sneaky good if a round line is available.

Angelo suggests the over on a round line might be sneaky good because Ruziboev has an incredible chin.
"Nerzleton's the pick. The minus 280 odds seem pretty affordable."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 15, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Big Brady picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a plus-240 underdog, citing Ruziboev's poor takedown defense and lack of volume. He believes Stoltzfus can take Ruziboev down and control him, making Ruziboev's power useless. He expects a decision win if Stoltzfus fights smart.

Stoltzfus by decision
"I'm taking Stoultz here, believe it or not. ... I think he has all the tools to to win this fight. So I'll say Solstus wins this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

The host acknowledges Ruziboev's power and striking advantage but notes he has been grinded out by lesser grapplers. He believes Stoltzfus, with his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements from Extreme Couture, can get Ruziboev to the ground and grind him out from top position, either winning on the scorecards or finding a submission.

Stoltzfus by decision or submission
"As long as Stoultzfus has really minded his P's and Q's in this fight and really sharpened his game with the help of extreme couture, he should be you able to utilize his BJJ black belt and wrestling improvements to …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 16, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nursulton Ruziboev

The Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev, calling him a dirty fighter who moves well and has a ton of experience. He thinks Ruziboev is better at middleweight with more power. He notes Stoltzfus has been styled on by opponents like Bruno Ferreira and doesn't see a path to victory. He predicts a TKO in the first or second round.

Ruziboev by TKO in round 1 or 2
"I'm gonna have to go with Nultton Marusv TKO in the first or second round."
KO (punches) R1 4:28 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 7 of 11 63% 13 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Marc-André Barriault 1 13 of 20 65% 23 of 32 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 7 of 11 63% 6 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 7 of 9 0 of 0
Marc-André Barriault 13 of 20 65% 11 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 5 7 of 10 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Angelo picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to weather an early storm from Dustin Stoltzfus and take over with volume. He notes Barriault has impressive striking volume (almost 6 sig strikes per minute) but is also hit a lot. He thinks Stoltzfus is dangerous early with power but has a questionable chin. He suggests betting the over if a 1.5 round line is available, as the fight could go long.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Mark Andre is going to be the pick I think he can weather an early storm Dustin is dangerous and Mark was just knocked out but I think Joe pyer hits at like a completely different velocity than most other …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Big Brady picks Marc-André Barriault to win by decision. He likes Barriault's cardio, volume, and takedown defense. He thinks Stoltzfus's striking is not good and that Barriault will piece him up over 15 minutes. Brady expects Barriault to stuff takedowns and outwork Stoltzfus on the feet.

"give me bario bario to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Cody picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his pressure, power, and volume advantage over Stoltzfus. He notes that Stoltzfus relies on wrestling but has poor takedown success against strong grapplers, and Barriault's takedown defense is solid. He also mentions Stoltzfus's recent KO loss and potential psychological issues, and believes Barriault can finish him late or win a decision.

"I feel like bario should be one of them."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault, citing his durability and tendency to get better as the fight progresses. He questions Dustin Stoltzfus's confidence and ability to handle adversity, noting that Barriault will expose any weaknesses in cardio or chin. Vreeland acknowledges Stoltzfus's skills but believes Barriault's toughness and pressure will prevail, though the price (-205) makes it a pass for betting.

"I'mma pick Mark Andre bario"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Lucrative James picks Marc-André Barriault, expecting him to dominate with pace and pressure in the clinch. He believes Stoltzfus will be competitive in round one but fade, and that Barriault will get a third-round finish or decision. He highlights Barriault's body shots and uppercuts in the clinch.

round three or decision
"I'm taking mab to survive T some type of storm to have a competitive round one but start to dominate round two and round three"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Barriault is coming back too quickly after a knockout, but if his durability holds up, he should put pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finish him in the second or third round via TKO.

finish in second or third round via TKO
"I do believe if his durability hold up holds up here he should do a good enough job in terms of putting pace and pressure on Stoltzfus and finishing him in the second or third round via TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Stoltzfus's recent facial fracture and nerve damage may affect his performance. He notes that Barriault's constant pressure and power should overwhelm Stoltzfus, and he sees a potential late stoppage. He also suggests live betting Barriault if he loses the first round.

"I think bario but I'm going to avoid like the split decision kind of angle... I do actually think it's possible that barrier gets him out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marc-André Barriault

The Guru picks Marc-André Barriault over Dustin Stoltzfus, believing Barriault's pace and activity will be decisive. He notes Stoltzfus lacks finishing ability and cardio, while Barriault keeps a high output. He expects a decision win for Barriault.

decision
"I'm G to go against Dustin stsus shock twist I know and go of Mark Andre barel I just see this making it into the decision area"
LOSS vs Brunno Ferreira
KO (spinning back elbow) R1 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.

Brunno Ferreira wins inside the distance
"Bruno FAA inside the distance no less"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.

knockout round 1; live bet Stoltzfus if survives first round
"give me Bruno Ferrera to win this fight and win this fight by first round Nar knockout I think he Sparks Dustin stsf in the early going"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.

"I would think that there's a lot of pass here for stus but largely he's going to have to get out of that first round Bruno we know he's a tank engine for the first round but almost all of …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.

dog or pass
"I'm going to go Dustin Stoltzfus here now"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.

Brunno Ferreira in a parlay; live bet on Dustin Stoltzfus if fight goes past round 1
"I'm picking Bruno I think he is going to find that shot but if this gets out of the first round I don't care how the first round looked Saturday live stream if we're streaming you better believe I'm putting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.

"give me stfo and St Fus by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.

"it's a dogger pass type of situation as well Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.

KO win prediction
"Bruno fa is going to smoke him... there will be one person in this fight who is a lot more [__] himself than the other one and it's going to be Dustin stus so I think that's going to lead …"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:10 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 31 of 73 42% 33 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 64 of 123 52% 78 of 140 4 of 7 57% 1 0 2:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 1 41 of 79 51% 43 of 82 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:29
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 9 of 26 34% 11 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Punahele Soriano 0 23 of 44 52% 35 of 58 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 31 of 73 42% 18 of 56 9 of 11 4 of 6 30 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 64 of 123 52% 24 of 79 23 of 27 17 of 17 60 of 116 4 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 22 of 47 46% 13 of 35 7 of 9 2 of 3 21 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 41 of 79 51% 15 of 51 17 of 19 9 of 9 37 of 72 4 of 7 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 9 of 26 34% 5 of 21 2 of 2 2 of 3 9 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Punahele Soriano 23 of 44 52% 9 of 28 6 of 8 8 of 8 23 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Big Brady picks Punahele Soriano to win by first-round knockout, citing Soriano's power and wrestling advantage. He notes Soriano has eight knockouts, seven in the first round, and that Stoltzfus is hittable. However, he expresses concern about Soriano's cardio if the fight gets extended, but believes Soriano will finish early.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say San catches them early if it does get extended it might get sketchy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Cody picks Soriano, noting his power and wrestling base. He thinks Soriano's size advantage is not as big as usual and that Stoltzfus's chin is questionable. He mentions Soriano's cardio issues but believes he can finish early. He likes the Soriano round one KO prop at +335.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335
"what's Puna round one is that a number that I might be interested in it's plus 200 standby for further confirmation that that could get that could get a little bit of money for me I mean what's him by …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Lucrative James picks Punahele Soriano, stating that Dustin Stoltzfus is too hitable and has poor striking defense. He believes Soriano will knock him out, likely in round one. He notes that Soriano is a deserved favorite and could be even higher than the current line.

inside the distance, likely knockout in round one
"I think he's going to get cracked by punah heli Sano Sano is a decent fighter man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Soriano has explosive power and typically finishes opponents early. Stoltzfus has a chin issue and was knocked out quickly in his last fight. Soriano is expected to crash the pocket and land big shots for a knockout. However, his gas tank is a concern if the fight goes past the first round. The minus 300 price is steep, so a round 1 prop or under 1.5 rounds is recommended.

round 1 prop, under 1.5 rounds recommended
"give me Sano minus 300 a little bit too much I'd probably hone in on that round one prop maybe the under one and a half"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

Paul picks Soriano but is not super confident. He thinks Soriano's wrestling and power should be enough against Stoltzfus, who has no real X-factor. He notes Soriano's cardio issues but believes the lower level of competition will allow Soriano to look better. He also mentions Stoltzfus's COVID issues and questionable chin.

Punahele Soriano round one KO at +335 considered
"I think he wins the fight am I super confident no because I don't really like s all that much but I think he wins this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Punahele Soriano

The MMA Guru picks Punahele Soriano, citing his finishing ability and athleticism. He believes Dustin Stoltzfus lacks knockout power and is coming off a long layoff and a KO loss. He predicts Soriano will get a KO in the second round or late in the first.

KO in second round or late first
"I'm going to go with Punahele Soriano... I reckon he'll get a KO in the second round or late in the first."
KO (front kick and punches) R1 0:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

"i am gonna do a slight lean here for dustin this is a very low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

"i'll say magametto by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

"I'll think i'll take the dog shot dustin stolfest but again i mean it's hard to get really excited and confident about it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

"I'm gonna pick a boost but I'm not as confident as you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Magomedov inside the distance (plus 120)
"Give me Abus inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm picking my uh abus magomedov in the spot... definitely not taking the shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Magomedov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to be going with abba sippy and magomedov it's a trustworthy pick"
WIN vs Dwight Grant
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 52 of 100 52% 54 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 49 of 112 43% 102 of 173 2 of 5 40% 0 0 4:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 23 of 35 65% 23 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 17 of 43 39% 17 of 43 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 14 of 28 50% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 20 of 38 52% 31 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:51
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 0 15 of 37 40% 15 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dwight Grant 0 12 of 31 38% 54 of 78 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dustin Stoltzfus 52 of 100 52% 35 of 79 7 of 9 10 of 12 50 of 97 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 49 of 112 43% 23 of 81 7 of 8 19 of 23 35 of 88 3 of 4 11 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dustin Stoltzfus 23 of 35 65% 19 of 30 1 of 1 3 of 4 21 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 17 of 43 39% 7 of 30 2 of 3 8 of 10 15 of 40 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Dustin Stoltzfus 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 5 of 7 4 of 5 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 20 of 38 52% 12 of 29 4 of 4 4 of 5 10 of 21 1 of 1 9 of 16
3 Dustin Stoltzfus 15 of 37 40% 11 of 33 1 of 1 3 of 3 15 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dwight Grant 12 of 31 38% 4 of 22 1 of 1 7 of 8 10 of 27 0 of 0 2 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Angelo picks Dwight Grant as the overall better fighter, but is hesitant due to Grant's chin and cardio issues, and Stoltzfus's power. He notes both fighters have flaws and advises against betting due to too many traps.

advises not to bet on this fight
"i think dwight grant is the overall better fighter so he's going to be my pick but dustin's live for a stoppage here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

Big Brady picks Dwight Grant to win by decision, but with very low confidence. He notes that Grant is hit-or-miss and hard to predict. He thinks Grant's takedown defense and striking should be enough to outpoint Stoltzfus, who is a grappler but may not be able to get the fight down. He mentions Grant is moving up a weight class, which is a concern.

"i'm gonna take dwight grant um just stylistically it should be a winnable matchup for him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a slight underdog, citing his policy of fading Dwight Grant as a favorite. He notes Grant's low output, poor cardio, and tendency to lose close fights. He believes Stoltzfus can take Grant down and grind out a win, but he is not betting it.

"i'm so done with dwight grant there's no world that exists that i'm willing to pay minus 135"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel Levi picks Dustin Stoltzfus for the upset, believing he is better across the board. He notes Grant's low output, age, and recent decline, while Stoltzfus's 0-3 UFC start was against grapplers, not strikers like Grant. He expects Stoltzfus to land takedowns and possibly get a submission, and considers betting him at underdog odds.

underdog bet; possible submission
"i'm gonna go dustin stoltzfus for the upset and i'm actually considering uh betting him at the underdog price"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Paul also picks Stoltzfus, arguing that Grant's power will be less effective at 185 and that Stoltzfus has better grappling. He notes that Grant has been taken down by lesser fighters and that Stoltzfus can exploit that. However, he calls it a dogger pass and won't bet it.

"it's dogger pass for me i'm gonna go soul foods the guy who actually fights at 185 pounds"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Dwight Grant

The MMA Guru picks Dwight Grant over Dustin Stoltzfus, emphasizing Grant's power advantage and tougher division background. He criticizes Stoltzfus's lack of impressive wins, noting losses to Kyle Daukaus and Rodolfo Vieira, and believes Grant's size and reach will be decisive. He predicts a KO victory for Grant, as Stoltzfus has been finished in kickboxing and Grant's power exceeds that of Stoltzfus's previous opponents.

predicts KO
"i'm going with dwight grant in the middleweight division dustin stoltzfus other than looking like tom hardy um there's no real impressive part of his career whatsoever"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:58 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Daukaus · Dec 18, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gerald Meerschaert 0 12 of 32 37% 51 of 72 4 of 4 100% 1 0 7:27
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 11 of 22 50% 19 of 30 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 11 45% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:03
2 Gerald Meerschaert 0 5 of 11 45% 24 of 30 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:56
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gerald Meerschaert 0 2 of 10 20% 3 of 12 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 3 of 12 25% 5 of 14 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gerald Meerschaert 12 of 32 37% 8 of 28 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 24 0 of 1 5 of 7
Dustin Stoltzfus 11 of 22 50% 8 of 19 3 of 3 0 of 0 10 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gerald Meerschaert 5 of 11 45% 3 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 8 0 of 0 2 of 3
Dustin Stoltzfus 4 of 5 80% 3 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gerald Meerschaert 2 of 10 20% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
Dustin Stoltzfus 3 of 12 25% 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gerald Meerschaert vs. Dustin Stoltzfus

Round 1
Grappler faces grappler in the preliminary headliner, as grizzled veteran Meerschaert (33-14, 8-6 UFC) comes in with more submission wins (25) than his opponent Stoltzfus (13-3, 0-2 UFC) has in total professional appearances (16). Keeping a close eye on the proceedings will be referee Mark Smith, who observes the middleweights come forward without any interest in touching gloves. Meerschaert lands first with an overhand right, and Stoltzfus greets him in the middle and throws back with bad intentions. “GM3” delivers a clean kick straight to the liver, and when Stoltzfus absorbs it, Meerschaert crashes forward to hit a double that sets Stoltzfus on his backside. Seated against the fence, Stoltzfus holds on Meerschaert’s neck with a guillotine choke, but Meerschaert is not remotely concerned as he pulls his opponent from away from the fence and steps over to try to claim guard. Stoltzfus clings to a shoulder lock from his back, and again, Meerschaert does not register this as he slowly works his way to secure full mount. Stoltzfus manages to get Meerschaert’s legs back to settle for half guard, and Meerschaert mounts him until he gets pulled back once more. Stoltzfus explodes back to his feet, where he searches for a single. Stoltzfus finds himself in a precarious position as Meerschaert grabs hold of a combined armbar and kneebar, but Stoltzfus is able to wriggle both limbs out so that he can take top position. Meerschaert scrambles when Stoltzfus starts to score with elbows, and he gets to his knees but Stoltzfus is ready for him. As soon as Stoltzfus puts Meerschaert on his back, Meerschaert reintroduces himself with a speedy armbar. Stoltzfus fights out of danger, where he gets into side control with Meerschaert on his side. Stoltzfus ends up in half guard delivering some ground-and-pound right to the bell, concluding the close first frame in top position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Meerschaert

Round 2
The middleweights start throwing hands right out of the gate, when Meerschaert sneaking in a right hand and ducking back from a looping punch coming his way. They swing for the fences, and Meerschaert throws himself off-balance in the exchange. Stoltzfus throws a leg kick, and it gets caught, but he does not manage to do anything with it before setting it down. They both miss with high-intensity kicks, although Meerschaert is able to close the distance and deliver a knee square to the solar plexus. As they tie up, Stoltzfus pursues a takedown, and he grounds Meerschaert and falls into a guillotine choke setup. Stoltzfus pops his head out without much concern, and he stacks Meerschaert up to prohibit him from setting up anything with his legs. Meerschaert pushes off with his feet on the thighs, but Stoltzfus is able to leap back down in time before “GM3” can stand. This time, Meerschaert closes his guard, and Stoltzfus keeps his weight pressed tightly on his foe. Every so often, Stoltzfus sits up to throw a strike, and he comes back down before Meerschaert can do anything off his back. Meerschaert looks for an armlock as Stoltzfus again stacks him up, but there is nothing doing while Stoltzfus clings to him in half guard. When Stoltzfus lands a few strikes from above, Meerschaert bursts back up and gets to his knees. Stoltzfus attacks with a brabo choke when Meerschaert is in this position, and he puts his leg above Meerschaert’s neck to set up a modified version of a Peruvian necktie. “GM3” defends against it, only for Stoltzfus to jump back down when Meerschaert is on his back to land some ground strikes. He ends the second round doing damage with ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Stoltzfus

Round 3
Meerschaert blocks an immediate high kick when Stoltzfus attacks to begin the final round, and he lays into Stoltzfus with an overhand right. Stoltzfus turns him around and hits the double, and Meerschaert defends again with a guillotine choke that is suddenly tight. Stoltzfus turns and twists while the arm is beneath his chin, but he calmly, methodically slips his neck out of the choke. Meerschaert powers back up, and he blocks a punch to go for one of his own. The two tired men throw bombs, and Meerschaert lands and absorbs a strike coming back at him. Stoltzfus drives through with a double, putting Meerschaert on his back and landing in side control. Meerschaert once more scrambles, letting Stoltzfus slip out the back door so he can wind up on top. Stoltzfus stays on his knees as Meerschaert tries to take his back, until Stoltzfus suddenly turns to attack a leglock. “GM3” spins through it to free his ankle, and he aims to take Stoltzfus’ back and manages to get a hook in.
From there, the Roufusport grappling coach instantly attacks the neck, sinking in a rear-naked choke as the arm slides beneath the chin. Stoltzfus tries to punch Meerschaert twice from behind his head to do something, anything. He promptly bails on punching, and taps out as he would be put to sleep seconds later.
This is a big comeback for “GM3,” who has notched three submission wins in a row over three tough opponents.

The Official Result
Gerald Meerschaert def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 2:58 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Angelo picks Gerald Meerschaert because he is dangerous on the ground and has proven he can survive being stunned. He notes that Meerschaert's chin looked better in his last fight, but Stoltzfus has legitimate power. Angelo thinks Meerschaert will avoid the KO, get the fight to the ground, and win by submission. However, he acknowledges a Stoltzfus KO is very live.

"the pick is gerald to avoid the ko get it to the ground where he needs to be but a dustin ko is 100 percent live"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Big Brady picks Gerald Meerschaert, citing his superior experience, striking improvements, and dangerous ground game (94% finish rate, 76% submission rate). He is not sold on Stoltzfus, who was out-struck by Kyle Daukaus and slowed down against Rodolfo Vieira. He expects Meerschaert to get a late submission.

submission
"I'm gonna go gerald meerschaar to win by submission here late in the fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Cody is confident in Meerschaert, noting his experience, BJJ, and better striking and wrestling than Stoltzfus. He points out that Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and has been submitted by lower-level opponents. Cody thinks Meerschaert can win wherever the fight goes, though he warns about Meerschaert's chin. He considers -235 a fair price.

"I go with jared mirshar's chin is not good enough to make him a top ticket play but I mean he's got legitimate wins in the ufc"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Daniel Levi leans toward Gerald Meerschaert but is not comfortable laying -230. He respects Meerschaert's submission record and veteran savvy, but notes that Meerschaert typically wins as an underdog. Levi thinks Stoltzfus is no slouch and has faced tough competition, but believes Meerschaert's experience and ground game will be the difference. He expects a competitive fight where Meerschaert eventually finds a submission or wins a decision, but advises passing the bet or taking the dog.

Meerschaert by submission; pass on betting
"I lean Mirsherd... but minus 225 is not a lean type price so it's dog or pass."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Jacob picks Dustin Stoltzfus, believing he will dominate the fight. He thinks Meerschaert's takedowns are sloppy and that Stoltzfus will defend them and win the striking exchanges. Jacob notes that Stoltzfus outstruck Rodolfo Vieira 2-1 before being submitted, and that Meerschaert's chin is questionable. He expects Stoltzfus to knock Meerschaert out.

"i think that dustin honestly dominates this fight these odds seem crazy to me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The host leans towards Meerschaert inside the distance at even money. He notes that Meerschaert is hittable but has great submissions, and Stoltzfus is not UFC quality. However, he is not passionate due to Meerschaert's inconsistency.

Meerschaert inside the distance (+100)
"the inside the distance around even money is not too bad of a spot so uh that's the way i'd go mirsha inside the distance even money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 16, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

Paul agrees with Meerschaert, noting his submission record and cardio. He thinks Stoltzfus hasn't shown anything in the UFC to get excited about. Paul doesn't love laying -235 but sees Meerschaert as the clear better fighter.

"I mean gerald marshall in fairness too has what the most submission victories in at least middleweight history"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Dec 13, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Gerald Meerschaert

The MMA Guru calls this one of the locks of the card, picking Gerald Meerschaert to win by second-round guillotine choke. He notes Meerschaert has been looking great recently and Stoltzfus is one-dimensional. He thinks Stoltzfus cannot take Meerschaert down or submit him, and Meerschaert will land big shots and latch on a guillotine when Stoltzfus shoots for a takedown.

second round guillotine choke submission
"i think this is one of the locks of the card"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

Big Brady picks Kyle Daukaus to win by decision. He notes Daukaus has excellent takedowns and ground control, while Stoltzfus can be taken down. He thinks Daukaus will have success on the mat but may not finish, as Stoltzfus has never been submitted or knocked out.

safe parlay piece
"i'm gonna say kyle dawkis wins by decision here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as an underdog, believing he is underrated. He notes Daukaus has better striking and wrestling but Stoltzfus is a submission specialist with good wrestling. He thinks the line is too wide and that Stoltzfus has a real chance, especially if the fight goes deep.

"i'm gonna take slopes man in the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The host picks Kyle Daukaus to win via submission, likely in the second round. He notes Daukaus has a reach advantage and strong jiu-jitsu, while Stoltzfus has takedown defense issues. He thinks the line is a bit wide but likes Daukaus to get it done on the ground.

under 2.5 rounds (minus 105)
"I do believe that Kyle will be successful in dragging this fight to the feet or to the ground and I do believe that we'll see him pull off a submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Kyle Daukaus

The MMA Guru picks Kyle Daukaus to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Daukaus has faced better competition and has superior grappling scrambles, as shown against Brendan Allen. He doubts Stoltzfus can submit Daukaus and expects a competitive back-and-forth fight where Daukaus edges out the rounds.

"i'm going to be picking kyle dalkows to get the job done over stoltzfest"