Career Averages - Antonina Shevchenko
Career Averages - Ariane da Silva
Antonina Shevchenko - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 81 of 158 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 33 of 86 | 38% | 80 of 146 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:34 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 35 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 24 of 57 | 42% | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 9 of 37 | 24% | 9 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 27 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Cortney Casey | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 36 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 55 of 117 | 47% | 26 of 73 | 15 of 26 | 14 of 18 | 54 of 115 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 33 of 86 | 38% | 17 of 52 | 2 of 7 | 14 of 27 | 28 of 78 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 35 | 45% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 20 | 60% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 9 of 14 | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 24 of 57 | 42% | 9 of 34 | 6 of 11 | 9 of 12 | 24 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 9 of 37 | 24% | 5 of 23 | 0 of 3 | 4 of 11 | 9 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 15 of 25 | 60% | 11 of 18 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Cortney Casey | 12 of 29 | 41% | 9 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Antonina Shevchenko as the better striker, expecting the fight to stay on the feet since Cortney Casey has poor takedown offense (no takedowns in 4 years). He notes Antonina has clean technique but real gaps in grappling. He is not betting the moneyline but considers a plus 3.5 round bet on Casey because she is tough and could win one round.
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko but with low confidence, noting that he typically looks to fade her. He explains that Cortney Casey's path to victory would be via takedowns, but she rarely uses her wrestling (only 0.26 takedowns per 15 minutes). Since he can't trust Casey to implement that game plan, he expects the fight to stay on the feet where Shevchenko is the better striker. He calls it a close fight and says he doesn't want to bet it.
Cody thinks Shevchenko's striking is world-class and she has a slight wrestling advantage over Casey. He notes Casey is durable but has poor takedown defense. He expects Shevchenko to use her speed and technique to win a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
The host does not pick a winner for this fight. He only bets on the fight going to decision (over 2.5 rounds) at -180. He expects Shevchenko to outpoint Casey but notes that Casey could snatch a submission. He does not commit to a side on the moneyline.
Paul agrees with Cody, picking Shevchenko. He notes that Casey's wrestling is non-existent and Shevchenko should have a grappling advantage. He thinks the price is reasonable for a women's MMA fight and expects Shevchenko to win.
The Guru picks Cortney Casey as an underdog, calling the fight a coin flip between two inconsistent fighters. He believes oddsmakers overvalue Shevchenko's surname and record. He trusts Casey's volume and grappling to edge out a decision, possibly mixing in takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 40 of 63 | 63% | 58 of 85 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 52 of 110 | 47% | 128 of 209 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 5:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 29 of 41 | 70% | 38 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 33 | 27% | 26 of 52 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 20 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 43 of 77 | 55% | 102 of 157 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Casey O'Neill | 40 of 63 | 63% | 32 of 55 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 45 | 8 of 8 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 52 of 110 | 47% | 46 of 101 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 55 | 2 of 3 | 37 of 52 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Casey O'Neill | 29 of 41 | 70% | 23 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 8 of 10 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 33 | 27% | 5 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Casey O'Neill | 11 of 22 | 50% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 43 of 77 | 55% | 41 of 74 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 35 of 48 |
Angelo picks Casey O'Neill confidently, citing her clear path to victory via wrestling and pressure. He notes that O'Neill is a Muay Thai striker with solid wrestling and explosive athleticism, while Shevchenko has poor takedown defense (50% in UFC). Angelo expects O'Neill to win striking exchanges or fall back on takedowns, making her almost a guaranteed win. He considers a moneyline bet at -210 and may include her in DraftKings lineup at $9,000.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by decision, but is hesitant due to O'Neill's poor striking defense (38%) and being very hittable. He notes O'Neill will be at a massive disadvantage on the feet against Shevchenko, who has a significant striking advantage. However, Shevchenko has terrible takedown defense (50%) and was taken down multiple times by Andrea Lee, Caitlin Chookagian, and Roxanne Modafferi. Brady expects O'Neill to shoot takedowns early and control the fight on the ground to squeak out a decision. He has serious concerns about O'Neill's striking defense going forward.
Cody picks O'Neill, noting her youth and grappling advantage. He expects her to take Shevchenko down and control her on the ground. He mentions that Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and was submitted by Andrea Lee. He predicts O'Neill wins inside the distance, likely by submission.
Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill but is nervous about the striking and clinch advantage of Antonina Shevchenko. He notes O'Neill's path to victory is via takedowns and ground control, where she has a brown belt and has shown improvement. However, Shevchenko has lost only to top-15 opponents and is tough to finish. Levi expects O'Neill to get taken down eventually and grind out a decision or submission, but he will be anxious while the fight is standing.
I think Shevchenko is being undervalued. She has fought much better competition and has a clear striking advantage. O'Neill's grappling is overrated; she got reversed by Shannon Dobson and has been taken down by others. If Shevchenko can stuff takedowns, she will light O'Neill up. I bet Shevchenko moneyline and also Shevchenko by KO at +800.
Paul also picks O'Neill, noting that she is a rising star with good grappling. He acknowledges that she lost the first round against Lara Procopio but rallied. He believes her wrestling and jiu-jitsu will be too much for Shevchenko, who is 36 and past her prime.
The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill, citing Antonina Shevchenko's grappling problems. He notes that Shevchenko was submitted by Andrea Lee and controlled by Roxanne Modafferi. O'Neill has a reach advantage and good grappling, and he predicts she will take Shevchenko down and submit her with a rear-naked choke in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 0 | 45 of 62 | 72% | 88 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 2:11 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 23 of 41 | 56% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 43 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 22 of 39 | 56% | 34 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 0 | 17 of 18 | 94% | 45 of 47 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 0:40 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Lee | 45 of 62 | 72% | 32 of 43 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 19 of 35 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 21 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 23 of 41 | 56% | 13 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 32 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Andrea Lee | 28 of 44 | 63% | 15 of 25 | 11 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 34 | 6 of 6 | 4 of 4 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 22 of 39 | 56% | 13 of 29 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Andrea Lee | 17 of 18 | 94% | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 17 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.
Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.
Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.
The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.
Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 39 of 57 | 68% | 94 of 128 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 7:39 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 25 of 36 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 37 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 20 of 24 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 29 of 45 | 64% | 57 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:51 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 5 of 12 | 41% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 39 of 57 | 68% | 32 of 50 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 26 of 39 |
| Ariane da Silva | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 10 of 12 | 83% | 4 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 10 of 14 | 71% | 4 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 29 of 45 | 64% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 26 of 39 |
| Ariane da Silva | 5 of 12 | 41% | 3 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.
Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.
The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 73 of 108 | 67% | 200 of 240 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 10:36 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 25 of 64 | 39% | 37 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 20 of 24 | 83% | 70 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 | 0 | 4:27 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 18 of 21 | 85% | 83 of 86 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 0 | 35 of 63 | 55% | 47 of 77 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 54 | 31% | 19 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Katlyn Cerminara | 73 of 108 | 67% | 55 of 81 | 12 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 47 of 55 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 25 of 64 | 39% | 14 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 21 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Katlyn Cerminara | 20 of 24 | 83% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Katlyn Cerminara | 18 of 21 | 85% | 16 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 19 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 5 of 6 | 83% | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Katlyn Cerminara | 35 of 63 | 55% | 22 of 43 | 9 of 14 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 18 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 54 | 31% | 11 of 46 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 52 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Antonina Shevchenko to win a very close decision. He initially thought Cerminara should be the favorite due to her recent title fight, but after watching tape, he switched to Shevchenko. He believes Shevchenko is the better striker and will land the harder, more convincing shots. He notes that Cerminara has a path to victory if she uses wrestling, but she hasn't done that in the UFC. He expects a split decision and advises not to bet on this fight.
Daniel edges Antonina, citing her intel from training with her sister Valentina and her ability to control range with knees from the clinch. He notes that Chookagian has zero takedowns in the UFC and that the smaller cage will limit her movement. He expects a split decision.
The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Antonina Shevchenko hasn't beaten great opposition and lost to Roxanne Modafferi. He believes Cerminara is longer, rangier, and will have a fire lit under her after losing to Valentina Shevchenko. He also mentions the narrative of beating her sister to get a title rematch.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 36 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 3 | 0 | 1:54 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 12 of 24 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 34 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 2 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 18 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:40 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 1 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 23 | 69% | 3 of 6 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 6 of 16 | 37% | 3 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 8 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 16 of 21 | 76% | 3 of 4 | 9 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 6 of 11 | 54% | 3 of 7 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Lucie Pudilová | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 33 of 79 | 41% | 105 of 162 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 9:00 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 64 of 116 | 55% | 87 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:50 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 11 of 40 | 27% | 30 of 63 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:59 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 44 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:46 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 0 | 8 of 18 | 44% | 31 of 43 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 3:15 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 39 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roxanne Modafferi | 33 of 79 | 41% | 29 of 73 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 18 of 60 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 15 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 64 of 116 | 55% | 50 of 101 | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 98 | 10 of 11 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roxanne Modafferi | 11 of 40 | 27% | 8 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 26 of 46 | 56% | 23 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 45 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roxanne Modafferi | 14 of 21 | 66% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 6 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 17 of 34 | 50% | 15 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | |
| 3 | Roxanne Modafferi | 8 of 18 | 44% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Antonina Shevchenko | 21 of 36 | 58% | 12 of 26 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 33 of 128 | 25% | 85 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:37 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 66 of 134 | 49% | 87 of 167 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:56 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 9 of 50 | 18% | 16 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 15 of 35 | 42% | 19 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:12 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 12 of 46 | 26% | 30 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 24 of 53 | 45% | 29 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:02 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 0 | 12 of 32 | 37% | 39 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 39 of 66 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Antonina Shevchenko | 33 of 128 | 25% | 18 of 113 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 26 of 116 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 66 of 134 | 49% | 41 of 101 | 18 of 26 | 7 of 7 | 46 of 106 | 14 of 19 | 6 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Antonina Shevchenko | 9 of 50 | 18% | 3 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 6 of 47 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 15 of 35 | 42% | 10 of 30 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Antonina Shevchenko | 12 of 46 | 26% | 8 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 24 of 53 | 45% | 16 of 41 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Antonina Shevchenko | 12 of 32 | 37% | 7 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ji Yeon Kim | 27 of 46 | 58% | 15 of 30 | 8 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
Ariane da Silva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 63 of 176 | 35% | 65 of 178 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 143 of 222 | 64% | 147 of 226 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 41 | 41% | 17 of 41 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 46 of 65 | 70% | 48 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 19 of 59 | 32% | 21 of 61 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Wang Cong | 1 | 42 of 64 | 65% | 44 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 27 of 76 | 35% | 27 of 76 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Wang Cong | 0 | 55 of 93 | 59% | 55 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 63 of 176 | 35% | 31 of 121 | 20 of 37 | 12 of 18 | 55 of 164 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 143 of 222 | 64% | 75 of 148 | 28 of 31 | 40 of 43 | 127 of 206 | 13 of 13 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 17 of 41 | 41% | 9 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 15 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 46 of 65 | 70% | 16 of 34 | 12 of 12 | 18 of 19 | 39 of 58 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 19 of 59 | 32% | 11 of 44 | 5 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 56 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 42 of 64 | 65% | 19 of 39 | 8 of 8 | 15 of 17 | 37 of 59 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 27 of 76 | 35% | 11 of 48 | 11 of 20 | 5 of 8 | 24 of 71 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Wang Cong | 55 of 93 | 59% | 40 of 75 | 8 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 51 of 89 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Wang Cong but is not fully confident. He acknowledges Ariane Lipski's underrated striking and ability to make it competitive. He thinks Wang's power will add up over time and Lipski will become afraid to engage. He notes the odds are almost 4-to-1 and says he will likely avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Wang Cong, citing her high-level striking and the fact that Ariane da Silva has been finished in five of her losses, four by KO. He thinks da Silva doesn't like getting hit and that Cong can finish her on the feet or by mixing in takedowns, as da Silva's ground game is suspect. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Wang Cong is expected to be more effective with her footwork, distance management, and combinations. She will land more effective damage throughout the fight and chip away at Lipski to win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Wang Cong, citing her superior kickboxing, power, and ability to finish. He notes Ariane da Silva has submission skills but lacks power and is reactionary. He predicts Wang Cong wins by TKO in the first round, dominating exchanges. He mentions Wang Cong's only loss was a fluke submission she would win 8 out of 10 times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 42 of 92 | 45% | 43 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 36 of 84 | 42% | 130 of 218 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 5:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 27 of 57 | 47% | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 83 of 120 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 27 of 38 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 0 | 1:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jasmine Jasudavicius | 42 of 92 | 45% | 26 of 65 | 15 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 41 of 88 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 36 of 84 | 42% | 29 of 76 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 13 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 27 of 57 | 47% | 17 of 39 | 10 of 15 | 0 of 3 | 27 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 13 of 46 | 28% | 10 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 9 of 20 | 45% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 17 of 28 | 60% | 15 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 12 | |
| 3 | Jasmine Jasudavicius | 6 of 15 | 40% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 6 of 10 | 60% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo is confident Jasmine wins, citing her superior wrestling and pressure. He disagrees with those who think Ariane da Silva is a bad matchup for Jasmine. He notes Ariane has improved but Jasmine is a better wrestler than Karini Silva, who outwrestled Ariane. He expects Jasmine to get takedowns and win, though he wishes the line were more affordable. He may add action as the week goes on.
Big Brady picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to win by decision, but with some concern. He acknowledges that Ariane da Silva has improved her takedown defense significantly, stuffing many takedowns in recent fights. However, Brady believes Jasudavicius is a much better wrestler than those opponents and will get takedowns. He notes that if Jasudavicius can't get takedowns, she is in trouble on the feet, but he leans toward her wrestling winning out.
Cody picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, expecting her to spam takedowns and rack up control time. He notes that Ariane Lipski has been taken down frequently in the past, and Jasudavicius's wrestling should be enough to win a decision. He acknowledges that Jasudavicius's striking is not elite but believes her grappling will be the difference.
Daniel Vreeland picks Jasmine Jasudavicius to pace Ariane da Silva, but notes it's a pass at the betting line. He acknowledges da Silva's recent improvements in maturity and output, but believes Jasudavicius's relentless pace and pressure will be too much. Vreeland expects Jasudavicius to push the pace and potentially get a finish, though he's not confident enough to bet at -225.
Jasudavicius will put a grind on da Silva, put her in uncomfortable positions, chain wrestling attempts together, and win on the scorecards. Da Silva's defensive grappling improvements were against lower-level grapplers, and she struggled against more impressive grapplers like Jasudavicius.
Paul picks Ariane Lipski as an underdog, arguing that her takedown defense has improved significantly since joining American Top Team, stuffing 21 straight takedown attempts before facing Karine Silva. He believes Lipski is the better striker and can keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes that Jasudavicius struggled to takedown Tracy Cortez and was out struck in that fight.
The Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Ariane da Silva, noting Jasudavicius's recent decent performances and size advantage. He questions da Silva's consistency and believes Jasudavicius's momentum and reach will carry her to a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 0 | 42 of 81 | 51% | 89 of 153 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:06 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 27 of 75 | 36% | 53 of 120 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 7:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 0 | 7 of 13 | 53% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 17 | 23% | 15 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:58 | |
| 2 | Karine Silva | 0 | 9 of 18 | 50% | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 23 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:39 | |
| 3 | Karine Silva | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 47 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 13 of 38 | 34% | 15 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:55 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karine Silva | 42 of 81 | 51% | 12 of 37 | 22 of 29 | 8 of 15 | 31 of 66 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
| Ariane da Silva | 27 of 75 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 9 of 32 | 10 of 14 | 21 of 65 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karine Silva | 7 of 13 | 53% | 4 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 17 | 23% | 0 of 7 | 2 of 7 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 2 | Karine Silva | 9 of 18 | 50% | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 10 of 20 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 3 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 4 of 5 | |
| 3 | Karine Silva | 26 of 50 | 52% | 7 of 21 | 16 of 20 | 3 of 9 | 19 of 41 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Ariane da Silva | 13 of 38 | 34% | 4 of 12 | 4 of 18 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Lipski catches a kick and lands the first punch. Silva lands a jumping kick to the body. Lipski uses her jab and lands a straight right to the body. Silva gets a takedown and winds up in half-guard. Elbows from Silva land. Lipski pushes her opponent off. Silva engages on the ground again and gets into side control. Lipski gives up her neck as Silva is cranking. Lipski gets out of the submission attempt. Silva gets pushed off again, and Lipski gets up. Lipski lands leg kicks and gets into guard. Lipski finishes the round on top, landing a few elbows.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 2
The two fighters exchange leg kicks on the feet. Lipski uses her jab and goes high with a kick. Silva catches a leg and is forced to give it up after Lipski throws a bunch of punches. Silva is able to throw Lipski to the ground. Silva is in half-guard and in full control of Lipski. Some nice elbows are landing for Silva. Lipski goes for a leg lock. Silva defends well. Silva gets to her feet and lands a few leg kicks. Lipski with a good upkick. Silva lands a damaging body kick as Lipski gets up. Silva drags Lipski back to the ground and has her back. Lipski defends well and survives the round.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Silva
Round 3
Lipski comes out swinging as she knows she needs a finish. Silva slows the pace with some leg kicks. Lipski answers with some body kicks. Silva catches a kick and goes for a takedown. Lipski rips her hands free, but the two are still clinched against the fence. A few knees land for Lipski, who then backs away. Silva throws a front kick. Halfway through the round. Lipski landing more kicks but isn't putting Silva in any danger. They clinch again. Silva is just holding on and not doing any damage. Lipski gets back to her feet, although Silva manages to scramble and take the back. Silva looks for a rear-naked choke as the fight ends.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Silva (30-27 Silva)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Lipski (29-28 Silva)
The Official Result
Karine Silva def. Ariane Lipski via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28); R3, 5:00.
Angelo bet Karine Silva at +118 underdog, noting she has 17 wins all by stoppage. He believes she can get the fight to the ground and find a submission or ground-and-pound. He gives credit to Ariane da Silva for improving her grappling and takedown defense, but thinks Karine's finishing ability will be the difference. He is confident she wins and notes the line has since flipped to -140.
Cody picks Lipski as a dog, citing her improved takedown defense (stuffed 19 of 20 attempts in last three fights) and volume striking. He believes she can survive Silva's early submission threats and win a decision, noting she has never been submitted.
Daniel is impressed by Silva's 100% finish rate (17 finishes) and her dangerous ground game, including a rare leg lock. He thinks her striking is hittable but she's confident because she's dangerous on the ground. He believes she will finish Lipski, noting that in women's MMA, such finishing upside is huge.
Ariane da Silva has shown improved takedown defense, stuffing all 25 takedown attempts in her last five fights. She should be able to keep the fight standing and use her striking to beat Karine Silva. Karine Silva is dangerous on the ground but has holes in her striking. I lean Ariane da Silva by decision.
Paul also picks Lipski, highlighting her three-fight winning streak as an underdog since moving to American Top Team. He notes her takedown defense and ability to keep fights standing, and expects her volume to outwork Silva over three rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Karine Silva, highlighting her consistent finishing ability with five or six submissions in a row. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's wins as over weak competition and notes her submission game is more opportunistic. He believes Silva's ability to force submissions will be the difference, and predicts she will get past da Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 74 | 41% | 32 of 75 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 64 of 127 | 50% | 86 of 152 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:58 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 28 of 68 | 41% | 29 of 69 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 39 of 93 | 41% | 44 of 98 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Casey O'Neill | 0 | 25 of 34 | 73% | 42 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:53 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 31 of 74 | 41% | 17 of 57 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 14 | 29 of 72 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 64 of 127 | 50% | 45 of 106 | 16 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 37 of 95 | 9 of 11 | 18 of 21 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 28 of 68 | 41% | 15 of 52 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 13 | 26 of 66 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 39 of 93 | 41% | 21 of 73 | 15 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 81 | 9 of 11 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Casey O'Neill | 25 of 34 | 73% | 24 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
Angelo leans Ariane da Silva, noting her recent evolution in grappling and takedown defense. He contrasts her upward trajectory with Casey O'Neill's recent struggles. He fears O'Neill's size but picks Ariane, comparing the fight to Veronica Hardy vs. Jamie Lorth.
Big Brady picks Casey O'Neill to win by second-round TKO, citing a phenomenal stylistic matchup. He notes O'Neill's vicious ground and pound and believes she will take down Lipski and dominate, as Lipski has been finished 4 times and struggles with ground pressure. Brady acknowledges Lipski's recent wins stuffing takedowns but thinks O'Neill's wrestling and volume will be too much. He also mentions O'Neill could knock Lipski out on the feet.
Cody picks Lipski as an underdog, citing her recent improvements at American Top Team and her wins as an underdog over JJ Aldrich and Melissa Gatto. He notes that O'Neill's wrestling has not been as effective against higher-level competition and that Lipski can keep the fight standing and make it competitive. Cody believes Lipski's volume and clinch elbows could be key, and at +165 she offers value.
Lucrative James picks Ariane Lipski outright. He notes that Lipski's takedown defense has improved dramatically, and if she stuffs takedowns, she will piece Casey O'Neill up on the feet. He believes Casey's path is only via takedown and ground control, but Lipski's improved defense and the value on her as an underdog make her the side. He has already bet Lipski.
The host, who previously faded Lipski, is now on board after her recent improvements. He believes Lipski has a technical striking advantage, better takedown defense, and growing confidence. He expects Lipski to keep the fight standing, land the more damaging blows, and win a decision. He notes that O'Neill is still raw and untested, and that Lipski can provide a similar type of loss as Jennifer Maia did to O'Neill.
Paul picks O'Neill but is not confident. He notes that O'Neill has good volume and takedowns against lower-level competition, but her wrestling has been less effective against better opponents. He believes O'Neill should use her wrestling to win but is hesitant because Lipski has improved. Paul expects a competitive fight and thinks O'Neill by decision is likely, but he is not fully confident.
The Guru picks Casey O'Neill over Ariane Lipski, citing O'Neill's higher volume striking and physicality. He notes O'Neill threw nearly 400 significant strikes against Roxanne Modafferi, while Lipski's output is lower. He expects a decision win for O'Neill.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 66 of 149 | 44% | 81 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:47 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 85 of 186 | 45% | 100 of 201 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:57 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 28 of 53 | 52% | 28 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 39 of 60 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 33 of 66 | 50% | 45 of 78 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:16 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 24 of 54 | 44% | 24 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Melissa Gatto | 0 | 24 of 67 | 35% | 27 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 66 of 149 | 44% | 28 of 101 | 27 of 36 | 11 of 12 | 53 of 131 | 12 of 15 | 1 of 3 |
| Melissa Gatto | 85 of 186 | 45% | 39 of 117 | 34 of 50 | 12 of 19 | 70 of 165 | 15 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 16 of 49 | 32% | 3 of 30 | 9 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 14 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Melissa Gatto | 28 of 53 | 52% | 13 of 31 | 10 of 15 | 5 of 7 | 25 of 49 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 26 of 46 | 56% | 10 of 27 | 12 of 14 | 4 of 5 | 18 of 37 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Melissa Gatto | 33 of 66 | 50% | 11 of 37 | 17 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 23 of 52 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 24 of 54 | 44% | 15 of 44 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 21 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 |
| Melissa Gatto | 24 of 67 | 35% | 15 of 49 | 7 of 14 | 2 of 4 | 22 of 64 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) based on her last performance against JJ Aldrich, where her hands and wrestling looked great. He acknowledges the logical pick is Melissa Gatto due to Lipski's history of being outgrappled, but he goes against logic. He suggests a plus 3.5 point buy on the scorecard for Lipski as a safer bet.
Big Brady picks Melissa Gatto to win by first-round submission. He notes Gatto has improved significantly, with better striking and takedown defense, and has power. He points out that Ariane da Silva (Lipski) has been dominated on the ground by fighters like Montana De La Rosa and Antonina Shevchenko, and Gatto's top game is dangerous. He expects Gatto to get on top and finish early.
Cody sees Lipski as a live underdog. He notes Gatto's low volume (17 significant strikes in nearly 3 rounds against Eubanks) and poor defensive wrestling. Lipski showed improved wrestling at ATT and has high volume (101 significant strikes against Aldrich). Cody thinks if Lipski can stuff takedowns, she wins the striking battle. He also notes Lipski is only 29 and improving.
Daniel confidently picks Gatto, citing her superior heart, durability, and grappling. He notes Lipski's history of quitting when pressured and her poor defensive grappling, while Gatto showed toughness against Tracy Cortez, reversing positions and landing takedowns. He believes Gatto's chin and submission threat are key, and that Lipski's recent win over JJ Aldrich is overrated. However, he missed the opening line (-150) and won't bet at -230, but expects Gatto to win.
Paul is tempted by the CF dog model. He notes Lipski's last performance against Aldrich was impressive and that Gatto's wins are over low-level competition. He questions if Lipski has turned the corner and thinks the line is off. Paul believes Lipski has a legitimate chance.
The Guru picks Melissa Gatto, noting her impressive win over Ariane Lipski via front kick to the body and her submission win over Karol Rosa. He acknowledges her loss to Tracy Cortez but believes she has improved during her year off. He predicts a submission off her back, possibly an armbar.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 101 of 204 | 49% | 113 of 216 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 49 of 99 | 49% | 56 of 106 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 40 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 11 of 20 | 55% | 14 of 23 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:25 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 35 of 73 | 47% | 35 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 31 of 64 | 48% | 38 of 71 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| JJ Aldrich | 0 | 18 of 40 | 45% | 22 of 44 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 101 of 204 | 49% | 47 of 134 | 42 of 56 | 12 of 14 | 77 of 176 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 49 of 99 | 49% | 42 of 92 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 67 | 52% | 17 of 42 | 15 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 22 of 53 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 11 of 20 | 55% | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 73 | 47% | 15 of 48 | 15 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 68 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 20 of 39 | 51% | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 31 of 64 | 48% | 15 of 44 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 4 | 25 of 55 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| JJ Aldrich | 18 of 40 | 45% | 15 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in JJ Aldrich, describing her as a solid, dependable grinder who will stick to a game plan and grind forward. He notes she is dangerous nowhere but good everywhere, and despite breaking his rule against betting on women's MMA, he places a 1.5 unit bet at -220. He believes she will win without taking risks.
Big Brady is confident in JJ Aldrich, noting she is the much more technical striker with better footwork. He highlights Lipski's huge hole in her ground game, calling it 'atrocious' and noting she has been finished on the mat multiple times. Brady expects Aldrich to mix takedowns and eventually get a late TKO, though he acknowledges decision is more likely.
Cody picks Aldrich, citing her training and striking. He notes da Silva's lack of improvement and thinks Aldrich can finish or win a decision. He is cautious about the price but sees Aldrich as a safe parlay piece.
Connor picks Aldrich confidently, citing her superior striking, takedown ability, and experience. He notes that Lipski has poor takedown defense and tends to focus on punching when pressured, which Aldrich can exploit with clinch work and takedowns. He believes Aldrich is a level above Lipski's previous competition.
Aldrich's footwork, combination striking, and experience should be too much for Lipski. Lipski has struggled against higher-level competition and has been finished in her losses. Aldrich can win on the feet or even on the ground. I expect Aldrich to box her way to a decision victory, controlling the distance and landing the cleaner shots.
Paul picks Aldrich, noting her striking advantage and improved wrestling. He thinks she can win standing or on the ground, but is wary of the -450 price. He mentions the under 2.5 rounds prop as interesting.
The MMA Guru picks JJ Aldrich, calling her underrated. He notes she trains with top fighters and performed decently against Blanchfield before getting guillotined. He believes Aldrich is more well-rounded and tougher, and will win a decision by out-grappling and making Ariane da Silva gun-shy.
Zane picks Aldrich, noting that she is a consistent, well-rounded fighter who should handle Lipski's aggressive but flawed style. He points out that Lipski's best win is against Luana Carolina, who is messy, and that Aldrich's takedown threat and counter-striking will be too much.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priscila Cachoeira | 1 | 20 of 35 | 57% | 20 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Ariane da Silva | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Priscila Cachoeira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Priscila Cachoeira | 20 of 35 | 57% | 15 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 18 |
| Ariane da Silva | 4 of 15 | 26% | 3 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lipski (-195), Cachoeira (+165)
Round 1
This is another rescheduled fight from last week’s event, with both women moving up a division to keep the bout intact. After a rough start to her UFC tenure, Brazil’s Cachoeira is building momentum with three wins in her last four outings. A former KSW champ, Lipski has been up and down since signing with the Las Vegas-based promotion. Herb Dean is in charge of the contest. Lipski catches Cachoeira with a counter right. Cachoeira lands a right of her own. “Zombie Girl” moves forward to force the brawl she desires and Lipski obliges. That turns out to be the wrong decision, as a left hook from Cachoeira backs up “The Violence Queen.” Cachoeira forces the issue, landing more shots.
Lipski is firing back but leaving herself exposed, and eventually the onslaught from Cachoeira drops her opponent — puncutated by a right to the chin. Cachoeira smells blood, and a barrage of punches and hammerfists on the canvas on a defenseless Lipski brings the show to a close.
The Official Result
Priscila Cachoeira def. Ariane Lipski via TKO (Punches) R1 1:05
Angelo switched his pick from Lipski to Cachoeira due to Lipski's weight cut issues and medical problems. He notes Cachoeira is the more dangerous fighter with heavy pressure and power, and Lipski may not be at 100% after cutting weight twice in a short period.
Big Brady picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) to win by first-round submission. He notes that Cachoeira absorbs an absurd 7.91 significant strikes per minute with 45% striking defense, calling her the definition of blocking punches with her face. Lipski hits hard and has a good submission game, and Cachoeira has been submitted twice in the UFC. Brady believes Lipski will take the fight down and submit her easily in the first round.
Cody picks Lipski, criticizing Cachoeira's technique and durability. He notes Cachoeira missed weight and had lingering COVID symptoms, which are bad signs. Cody thinks Lipski is better standing and in the clinch, and he cannot bet Cachoeira.
Paul picks Cachoeira, having already bet her at +150 and a round three prop at 20-1. He acknowledges she missed weight and had COVID issues but still believes she can win. Paul is sticking with his bet despite the line moving against him.
The host picks Ariane Lipski (Ariane da Silva) over Priscila Cachoeira, citing Cachoeira's weak UFC wins and losses to fighters like Molly McCann and Luana Carolina. He expects Lipski to take the fight to the ground and secure a submission in the first or second round, referencing Lipski's previous dominant submission win over Luana Carolina who also beat Cachoeira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 2 | 87 of 194 | 44% | 116 of 233 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 36 of 108 | 33% | 47 of 123 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 44 of 83 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:04 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 1 | 35 of 72 | 48% | 36 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:01 |
| Mandy Böhm | 0 | 12 of 41 | 29% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ariane da Silva | 87 of 194 | 44% | 27 of 106 | 53 of 73 | 7 of 15 | 64 of 157 | 15 of 23 | 8 of 14 |
| Mandy Böhm | 36 of 108 | 33% | 18 of 84 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 31 of 101 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ariane da Silva | 17 of 50 | 34% | 7 of 34 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 3 | 14 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 2 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 26 | 46% | 2 of 12 | 6 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 72 | 48% | 10 of 36 | 22 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ariane da Silva | 35 of 72 | 48% | 10 of 36 | 22 of 30 | 3 of 6 | 25 of 57 | 6 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
| Mandy Böhm | 12 of 41 | 29% | 8 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 11 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ariane Lipski (da Silva) confidently. He thinks she is a little better everywhere and has a huge experience edge (20 fights vs 7). He notes that Mandy Böhm is undefeated but has no specific elite skill to lean on, and that Lipski's losses came on her back, which he doesn't think will happen here. He placed a 1-unit bet on the moneyline at -121.
Big Brady picks underdog Mandy Böhm, believing her grappling will be the difference. He notes Ariane Lipski has poor takedown defense (42%) and a weak ground game, having been finished on the mat multiple times. He predicts Böhm will exploit this and win by second-round TKO or submission.
Cody picks Mandy Böhm, citing her superior striking, reach advantage, and underrated wrestling. He criticizes Ariane da Silva's poor takedown defense and low output, calling her 'fraudulent.' Cody notes that Böhm has a year layoff but believes she has the skills to win if she shows up in shape.
Daniel Levi leans with Ariane Lipski. He notes Lipski has lost twice in a row but those losses were to high-level fighters (Montana De La Rosa, Antonina Shevchenko). He thinks Mandy Böhm is green, with issues getting off the fence and off her back. He credits Böhm's toughness and clinch elbows but believes Lipski's experience will prevail. He says he's not confident enough to bet Lipski but picks her to get back on track.
Preet reluctantly picks Lipski because she is the much better striker and has trained at ATT. However, he is concerned about her takedown defense. He thinks Lipski will overwhelm Böhm on the feet and get a TKO in the second round. He likes Lipski by TKO at +500 and under 2.5 rounds at +185.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Ariane da Silva was dominated on the ground by Antonina Shevchenko, who is not a strong grappler. He believes Böhm's clinch work and cage control will be key. Paul says he cannot bet anyone who gets 'throttled' by Shevchenko.
The MMA Guru picks Mandy Böhm over Ariane Lipski, noting Böhm's technical skill, athleticism, and undefeated record. He criticizes Lipski's inconsistency against fundamentally sound opponents. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for Böhm.
Expert Picks (4)
Big Brady leans Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He thinks Shevchenko has a big advantage on the feet, but is concerned about her takedown defense after being dominated by Chookagian. He notes Lipski could win with a wrestling-heavy game plan, but Shevchenko is the pick if it stays standing.
Daniel picks Lipski as an underdog, citing Antonina's poor takedown defense and one-dimensional striking. He believes Lipski has paid her dues and can exploit Antonina's ground game. He notes Lipski's recent submission win shows improvement and that the fight should be a pick'em.
The host picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by decision. He believes she is cleaner on the feet and has a size advantage, and that Lipski will be outgunned on the feet and unable to have success on the ground. He notes the line is fair but not compelling to bet.
The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (30-27). He believes Shevchenko's losses are to better competition (Chookagian, Modafferi) and that Lipski doesn't shoot enough takedowns to pose a threat. He expects Shevchenko to outland Lipski on the feet and win every round.
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