UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez Next Fight
Age 38
Height 5' 5"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 37
Height 5' 4"
Reach 64.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Valentina Shevchenko
3.04 SLpM
52.0% Str. Acc.
2.0 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
2.65 TD Avg
61.0% TD Acc.
76.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jennifer Maia
4.35 SLpM
38.0% Str. Acc.
4.52 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.42 TD Avg
27.0% TD Acc.
58.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Valentina Shevchenko - Fight History
WIN vs Zhang Weili
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 41 of 68 60% 137 of 186 5 of 6 83% 0 0 13:24
Zhang Weili 0 32 of 98 32% 80 of 161 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 13 61% 21 of 26 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:30
Zhang Weili 0 7 of 17 41% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:23
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 9 of 10 90% 34 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:09
Zhang Weili 0 1 of 8 12% 12 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 18 38% 19 of 32 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:43
Zhang Weili 0 9 of 26 34% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 21 61% 31 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:16
Zhang Weili 0 10 of 30 33% 19 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 4 of 6 66% 32 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:46
Zhang Weili 0 5 of 17 29% 22 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 41 of 68 60% 21 of 44 14 of 17 6 of 7 27 of 47 8 of 14 6 of 7
Zhang Weili 32 of 98 32% 9 of 59 13 of 26 10 of 13 25 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 13 61% 4 of 8 2 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 8 2 of 5 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 7 of 17 41% 4 of 12 2 of 3 1 of 2 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 9 of 10 90% 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 5 1 of 1 4 of 4
Zhang Weili 1 of 8 12% 0 of 4 0 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 13 1 of 3 1 of 2
Zhang Weili 9 of 26 34% 1 of 15 4 of 7 4 of 4 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 21 61% 5 of 11 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0
Zhang Weili 10 of 30 33% 3 of 17 4 of 9 3 of 4 9 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 4 of 6 66% 1 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 1 of 1
Zhang Weili 5 of 17 29% 1 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 2 2 of 14 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Angelo leans towards Zhang Weili, citing her superior wrestling and athleticism. He believes Weili's clean double-leg takedowns will be effective against Valentina Shevchenko, who relies on striking to set up takedowns. He acknowledges Shevchenko's experience and durability but thinks Weili's speed and wrestling will be the difference.

"I am going to slightly lean way Lee here. I think the wrestling is going to be the difference."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady leans Valentina Shevchenko, citing her size advantage and natural weight class. He notes Shevchenko's wrestling ability, having taken down Manon Fiorot, and believes she can get takedowns on Zhang Weili, who was taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas. However, he acknowledges Zhang's physical strength and says it wouldn't shock him if Zhang gets top position. Brady is not betting on this fight and predicts a decision win for Shevchenko.

"I'm going to lean Valentina Shiftenko ever so slightly. I think it's a decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody picks Valentina due to her size, experience, and well-rounded skills. He notes that she is an elite kickboxer and wrestler, and that her trilogy with Grasso was a blip. He highlights that Zhang has had takedown defense issues in the past, and that Valentina consistently scores takedowns. He believes Valentina's size and strength will be key, and that she will win by decision.

Valentina Shevchenko by decision
"Valentina Shevchenko by decision play for me."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor picks Shevchenko but is hesitant, calling it a coin flip. He argues that Shevchenko's simple, patient style and mental stamina will frustrate Zhang, who struggles with distance and initiating exchanges. He notes that Zhang's wrestling might be neutralized by Shevchenko's clinch and top control, and that Zhang has been vulnerable when taken down.

Odds: Shevchenko opened +120, now -135; Zhang opened -140, now +115.
"I'm going to take Shevchenko, but I'm fascinated by the fight too. It genuinely feels like a coin flip to me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

Daniel respects Shevchenko's technical striking and well-rounded game, but sees Zhang as the fighter making rapid improvements, especially in wrestling. He notes that Zhang has outgrappled elite wrestlers like Carla Esparza and Tatiana Suarez, while Shevchenko hasn't shown the same evolution. He also likes the dog odds on Zhang and believes she can become a double champ.

"I'm actually going to pick Jean Lee to come out here, make history, become another double champ, and bring another belt back to China."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Lucrative James picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, stating she is the greatest women's fighter of all time. He believes her wrestling and grappling are superior to Zhang's, and she can outskill her on the feet. He notes both fighters have losses due to grappling, but trusts Shevchenko's takedown accuracy and experience against tougher opponents. He expects Shevchenko to control the fight and win a decision or possibly a late submission.

"My prediction is going to be fairly short and sweet here, boys. It's going to be Valentina Chevchenko to get the win and go down as the greatest women's fighter that we have ever seen in MMA."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko's size and overall MMA advantages muzzle Zhang's style. She mixes martial arts well, sets up takedowns behind strikes, and wins on the scorecards.

"I think that Chevchenko is the side here. Look for her size and overall MMA advantages to help her really muzzle that uh style of Jeang. ... I expect her to do it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Valentina's size advantage and superior wrestling. He notes that both fighters are similar in age but that Valentina is the bigger fighter and has a better takedown ratio. He thinks the fight will come down to grappling and top position, and that Valentina will win those exchanges. He also mentions that Valentina is more technical on the feet.

"give me the bigger bigger fighter with frankly a better, you know, takedown to taken down uh ratio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Zhang Weili

The Guru picks Zhang Weili to win by split decision. He believes Zhang is a better fighter than Alexa Grasso and Manon Fiorot, who gave Shevchenko close fights. He notes Shevchenko's recent performances have been less dominant, and Zhang's grappling and striking should be competitive. The Guru also suggests promotional favoritism towards the Chinese market could influence a close decision.

"I'm gonna go Jang Lee. Lighter woman's skill. Um I think she's better than Alexa Carraso and I think that's what this is going to come down to."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane also picks Shevchenko hesitantly, emphasizing that Zhang's game plan may not work against Shevchenko's patience. He notes that Zhang has become a punch-and-clutch fighter but still struggles with range, and Shevchenko will force her to initiate. He sees Shevchenko's ability to maintain a low-risk fight as key.

Same odds commentary.
"I'm going to pick Shevchenko just because I think because Weilijang struggles so much with that distance, that if her opponent is well attuned to taking advantage of that fact, they can take her down."
WIN vs Manon Fiorot
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 1 72 of 149 48% 173 of 251 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:52
Manon Fiorot 0 71 of 160 44% 150 of 239 1 of 12 8% 0 0 7:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 19 of 36 52% 57 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Manon Fiorot 0 13 of 32 40% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 20 40% 21 of 33 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Manon Fiorot 0 12 of 28 42% 31 of 47 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:59
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 28 50% 36 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Manon Fiorot 0 14 of 28 50% 29 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 1:40
4 Valentina Shevchenko 1 16 of 32 50% 29 of 45 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:18
Manon Fiorot 0 14 of 33 42% 32 of 51 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:31
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 15 of 33 45% 30 of 48 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Manon Fiorot 0 18 of 39 46% 38 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:57
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 72 of 149 48% 48 of 118 7 of 12 17 of 19 62 of 126 7 of 18 3 of 5
Manon Fiorot 71 of 160 44% 29 of 113 35 of 37 7 of 10 40 of 124 29 of 33 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 19 of 36 52% 15 of 31 0 of 1 4 of 4 18 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Manon Fiorot 13 of 32 40% 6 of 25 5 of 5 2 of 2 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 20 40% 5 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0
Manon Fiorot 12 of 28 42% 7 of 22 4 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 19 5 of 6 2 of 3
3 Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 28 50% 6 of 18 1 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 22 3 of 6 0 of 0
Manon Fiorot 14 of 28 50% 5 of 16 8 of 10 1 of 2 4 of 18 10 of 10 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 16 of 32 50% 10 of 26 1 of 1 5 of 5 14 of 22 0 of 6 2 of 4
Manon Fiorot 14 of 33 42% 5 of 23 8 of 8 1 of 2 7 of 25 7 of 8 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 15 of 33 45% 12 of 27 2 of 4 1 of 2 14 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Manon Fiorot 18 of 39 46% 6 of 27 10 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 30 7 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Women’s Flyweight Title Fight: Valentina Shevchenko vs. Manon Fiorot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fiorot (-148), Shevchenko (+124)

Round 1
For the first time since 2022, champion Shevchenko (24-4-1, 13-3-1 UFC) will be facing a woman not named Grasso. She draws surging Frenchwoman Fiorot (12-1, 7-0 UFC), who could become the first French-born undisputed champion in UFC history—Ciryl Gane won the interim heavyweight strap. To the surprise of some, Fiorot will close as the betting favorite, but when the cage door closes, it’s all between the two flyweights and referee Marc Goddard. They cordially tap their gloves together to make it official. Shevchenko slaps out a leg kick and leans to avoid a head kick, with Fiorot advancing early. Shevchenko pushes her away to score a body kick, and she zips away before another high kick can reach her. Shevchenko clips the challenger with a one-two, who seems surprised by the blows and has to blink them out. Shevchenko blocks a kick to get off a right hand, and she ducks a right hook when Fiorot strikes. Fiorot plants a kick on the lead leg, and she is countered when trying a second. Shevchenko lets Fiorot come in so she can catch her with a check right hook, and Fiorot looks for a kick on the other side. Shevchenko considers changing levels, but ends up blocking a kick and skirting to the side. Shevchenko stands the Frenchwoman up with a right hand, and her low kick continues to find its mark. Shevchenko flicks up a kick to the nose that reddens it up fast, and Fiorot adjusts it. Shevchenko spins with a wheel kick, and Fiorot dodges but cannot get her hands on the champ. Fiorot walks face-first into a right hand, and she bangs her lead leg into her foe’s guard. The right hand from Shevchenko bloodies up Fiorot’s nose, and she stings her again and shakes her up. The nose for the challenger is busted and bleeding badly just three minutes in, and Fiorot ignores it and surges forward. Shevchenko dances easily out of the way to reset, and she is met with a kick that she catches and tackles Fiorot to the ground. Shevchenko lands in half guard, where she lords over her foe and completely controls her. Goddard asks for more action, with Shevchenko content to impose heavy shoulder pressure. Fiorot elbows her opponent in the posterior while Shevchenko lands a few punches, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko

Round 2
Fiorot starts the round with her foot flying, and she shoots in for a double. Shevchenko leans against the wall to defend it, and she ducks away to escape. Shevchenko whips a kick up high that starts the bleeding again, and Fiorot promptly wipes her nose. Shevchenko spins with a back kick that slams into her ribs, and she skips away to evade a counter. Fiorot level changes and hits a 5-foot-5 wall that punches her in the face. Fiorot comes up short with a head kick, and she goes after a single that is equally futile. Shevchenko stands and waits for her opponent to come to her, countering her and hitting a trip to put the Frenchwoman on the mat. Fiorot scrambles madly to flip Shevchenko over, and they both get to their feet. Shevchenko beats Fiorot to the punch with her jab repeatedly, and she shoots for a double and cannot quite get it as Fiorot hops around skillfully. Fiorot pushes her foe back to get back to kickboxing range, and she raises up a high kick that gets blocked. Fiorot shoots for a takedown, and Shevchenko sprawls against the wall. Fiorot peels her leg away and grabs her from behind, leaning on the champ and kneeing her to the back of the thigh. Shevchenko spins away, but not before eating an elbow. Fiorot’s head kick cannot find its target, and she times a right hand with a takedown shot. Fiorot uses pure brute force to lift Shevchenko up in the air and dump her down, where she laces her legs around “Bullet” to pin her to her seat. Shevchenko posts off her right arm and barely blocks an illegal knee while she was grounded that Goddard did not see. Shevchenko does not protest, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
Goddard issues a hard warning between rounds, having acknowledged the near-foul, and the ladies get back to combat. They trade leg kicks to start, and Shevchenko goes high while Fiorot goes low a second time. Fiorot ignores a head kick that soars past her, and she stands there waiting for more offense to come at her. It is another blockable head kick, and she stuffs a takedown and reaches out with a right hand as Fiorot abandons it. The champ kicks the inside of the lead leg and flicks out a few jabs to get some space, and she nearly gets caught with a high kick. Shevchenko kicks the outer side of the leg, and they crash together when both going for level changes. Fiorot brings up a knee and an elbow, and Shevchenko scores a few jabs. When Fiorot charges, Shevchenko turns to the side and sprints around the cage to reset. Shevchenko shoots for a takedown that is unsuccessful, and she comes up top with a right hand. Fiorot fails on her own takedown effort, and she clinches up to drive four knees to the midsection. Shevchenko misses on a front kick to break, and she proceeds to work the front leg further. Fiorot flails her way in, inaccurate with her approach, and Shevchenko knees her in the face when Fiorot ducks down. This does not deter the Frenchwoman, who looks for a body lock takedown. Fiorot scores a knee or two to the inner thigh, and she plants one on the groin that Shevchenko once again does not protest. On the break, Shevchenko busts her foe’s nose open again with a right hand. The jab is soon to follow from the champ, who spins with a powerful back fist that forces Fiorot to shoot. Fiorot uses pure power to elevate her foe, and Shevchenko is able to hop around and keep her balance with the wall at her side. Fiorot knees the back of the leg, and Shevchenko pushes off the cage as Fiorot’s team claim falsely that she grabbed the fence—Goddard replies, “not even close.” Shevchenko pushes off with a punch and a kick, and the close round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 4
The women meet the championship rounds, and Fiorot is amped up and ready to continue as she pitches kicks and jabs out. Fiorot lands a side kick, and Shevchenko surges forward with two hooks. Shevchenko times a head kick to spin with a wheel kick that nails the challenger on the chin. Fiorot shakes her head, and she has her nose bleeding early with peppery jabs. Fiorot ducks under one in pursuit of a double, and she succeeds in pushing Shevchenko against the cage but no further. Fiorot settles for a few knees up close and personal, and she transitions to a single that Shevchenko thwarts with a few punches up top. Fiorot zips past her foe with offense, and Shevchenko is calm and a cucumber and counters her. Shevchenko tries a quick takedown, and Fiorot backs her off with a knee to the midsection. Shevchenko knees Fiorot and skirts to the side to let the Frenchwoman go past her again, playing the matador. She drills Fiorot with a stern spinning kick to the ribcage, and all Fiorot can do is reset and try to move forward and clinch. Fiorot scores a knee in the tie-up before pushing her to the wall, where she leans heavily on her adversary and scoring a few more knees. Shevchenko breaks free while dodging a knee up the middle, and she kicks the lead leg of her advancing foe. Fiorot leaps forward and is out of range, and Shevchenko times a sneaky takedown to drag Fiorot to her seat. Fiorot rushes back to her feet and starts kneeing the champ in the side. Fiorot manages to get off an elbow in the clinch, and she pushes out a side kick. Fiorot spins with nothing, and Shevchenko counters her with a right hand that sends her flying to the ground. Shevchenko pounces, ending the round in style with ground-and-pound.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko

Round 5
The fifth round has arrived, and it could be split leading into it. Fiorot acknowledges this and fights behind her jab, while Shevchenko shifts to the side and keeps moving. Fiorot chases her down and knees her once in the belly before tying her up, and she looks for a body lock takedown. Fiorot whiffs with an elbow on the break, and a high kick grazes her chin on the way out. Shevchenko counters her over the top with a left hand, and Fiorot bites down on her mouthpiece and slings leather back her direction. Shevchenko ducks a few punches to change levels, and Fiorot stonewalls her and shoves her back. Shevchenko smacks the front leg with a kick, continuously moving and blasting Fiorot with a spinning back fist. Fiorot is tough as a stale baguette, and she pushes forward into the clinch. Shevchenko breaks away and kicks her in the side. Shevchenko pecks out a jab, and she leaps forward with a Superwoman punch and a level change. Fiorot turns her about and pushes her to the wall, but she cannot keep the champ there. Fiorot fakes a spin, and she is at least a foot away from a head kick. Shevchenko connects with a punch, and Fiorot darts towards her with a short punch salvo before clinching up again. Fiorot knees her in the belly and leans on her, winding up with distance to plant the knees on the thigh. Fiorot sneaks around to grab the back of the champion, who spins around with a right hand as Fiorot tosses a head kick at her. Shevchenko counters a kick with a right hand, and her one-two comes up short. Her second lands, but not before Fiorot scores too. Shevchenko dings the challenger with a spinning back fist, and Fiorot pays her back with a knee and an elbow. Shevchenko knees back, and she aims a head kick at the bell. They go the distance, and the scores could go either way. Both women put their hands in the air after 25 minutes of fairly evenly-matched combat.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Shevchenko (48-47 Shevchenko)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (48-47 Fiorot)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (48-47 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Valentina Shevchenko def. Manon Fiorot via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 48-47)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot to become the new champion, citing her size, power, takedown defense, and striking. He acknowledges Valentina Shevchenko's evolution into wrestling but believes Fiorot's takedown defense and power will be too much. He thinks Fiorot controls the striking and keeps the fight on her feet.

"Mannon Fau is going to be the pick. I think she controls the striking. I think she keeps a fight on her feet and I think she becomes the new strawweight world champion."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady is hesitant but leans Fiorot. He notes Fiorot's high-volume striking, elite takedown defense (93%), and physical strength. He acknowledges Shevchenko looked great against Grasso but questions if that was due to Grasso's poor performance. He thinks Fiorot's movement and the big cage help her, and she can defend takedowns. He predicts a close decision win for Fiorot.

"I am going to go with Man on Fior to win a a close and competitive decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor picks Valentina Shevchenko, agreeing with Zane that she is a master of distance management. He notes that Fiorot's wrestling has not been tested against someone like Shevchenko, who has developed new takedown entries. Connor believes that Fiorot's game is not dynamic enough to exploit any potential age-related decline in Shevchenko.

"I'm surprised that chef chenko is an underdog here. I really am too. I have to assume she won't close as an underdog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host notes Shevchenko has been an underdog three times in the UFC and is 3-0 in those fights, expecting her to go 4-0. He believes she will compete in striking but ultimately use her clinch and grappling to dictate the pace and win on the scorecards.

"Shvchenko has already come into the UFC as an underdog three times, and she's 3-0 in those matchups."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Shevchenko, believing she is being disrespected as an underdog. He notes her championship experience, reach advantage, and recent dominant win over Grasso. He questions Fiorot's performance against Rose Namajunas, who fought with a broken hand, and thinks Shevchenko's technical striking and adjustments will win her a decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Valentina Chevhenko getting this one done by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane picks Valentina Shevchenko, arguing that she is a master of distance management and preventative footwork, making it incredibly difficult for opponents to get into range. He notes that Fiorot's striking has structural flaws, with her chin rising and feet squaring when she commits. Zane believes that if Fiorot wins, it will be more a sign of Shevchenko's age than Fiorot's skill.

"I'm surprised that chef chenko is an underdog here. I really am too. I have to assume she won't close as an underdog."
WIN vs Alexa Grasso
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC 306: O'Malley vs. Dvalishvili · Sep 14, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 18 of 100 18% 153 of 245 1 of 4 25% 2 0 0:49
Alexa Grasso 0 45 of 80 56% 193 of 233 8 of 12 66% 0 0 16:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 2 of 19 10% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 10 of 18 55% 36 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:28
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 2 of 13 15% 41 of 56 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 3 of 8 37% 29 of 36 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:57
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 5 of 35 14% 21 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexa Grasso 0 16 of 26 61% 35 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:20
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 1 of 12 8% 23 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:24
Alexa Grasso 0 2 of 5 40% 65 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:56
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 21 38% 54 of 71 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:25
Alexa Grasso 0 14 of 23 60% 28 of 37 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 18 of 100 18% 8 of 74 3 of 10 7 of 16 16 of 98 1 of 1 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 45 of 80 56% 38 of 71 3 of 5 4 of 4 39 of 72 2 of 2 4 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 2 of 19 10% 1 of 16 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 10 of 18 55% 8 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2 9 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Valentina Shevchenko 2 of 13 15% 1 of 8 1 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1
Alexa Grasso 3 of 8 37% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 2
3 Valentina Shevchenko 5 of 35 14% 2 of 24 1 of 3 2 of 8 5 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 3 of 3 0 of 0 12 of 22 1 of 1 3 of 3
4 Valentina Shevchenko 1 of 12 8% 1 of 10 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 21 38% 3 of 16 1 of 1 4 of 4 7 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexa Grasso 14 of 23 60% 12 of 20 0 of 1 2 of 2 13 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 8, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Angelo picks Alexa Grasso despite acknowledging that Valentina Shevchenko likely won the last fight. He sees improvements in Grasso's game between the two fights, noting she won exchanges, rounds, and even dropped Valentina in the second fight. He believes the wrestling gap is tightening and the speed gap is widening, and that Grasso is younger, faster, and more creative. He placed half a unit on Grasso at -115, recognizing it's hard for a champion to win back the belt but thinks Grasso gets it done.

Placed 0.5 units on Grasso at -115.
"I think Alexa gets it done here and I've got a half a unit on her at minus 115"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Big Brady acknowledges Shevchenko arguably won the second fight but notes her regression and Grasso's improvement. He also factors in the Mexican crowd and potential judging bias. He predicts Grasso wins a close decision.

"I got to go with grao... give me grao to win this fight and grao to win this fight by decision"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Daniel picks Alexa Grasso to win the trilogy, arguing that Valentina hasn't evolved enough and that long-reigning champions rarely reclaim their belts. He notes Grasso's faster hands, higher volume, and finishing upside, while worrying about Grasso being taken down and controlled. He believes history favors Grasso and that she will make bigger improvements.

"I think that history favors Alexa Grasso here and uh for that reason I'm picking her"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexa Grasso because her trajectory is still upward while Valentina Shevchenko's is declining. He notes Shevchenko has lost a step in defensive grappling since the Taila Santos fight, and Grasso's striking and grappling have improved significantly. He believes Grasso's speed, cardio, and youth will be the deciding factors.

Grasso by decision +175
"I'm going with grao here I I think cardio speed all of those things and the youth is really going to be the biggest answer"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Jeff Fox agrees with Daniel Vreeland, noting Shevchenko's decline had started even before facing Grasso. He mentions Shevchenko's mindset of thinking she won the last fight is not good. He goes with the ascending fighter who is much younger and already beat her.

"I know it's boring to say but I agree with everything Gumby says there yeah chevchenko every fight even before she started um even before she ran into Grasso you know the the decline had started"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 2, 2025 (fight day)

The transcript does not discuss this fight. The host only mentions Kayla Harrison vs Juliana Peña as the other title fight, not Shevchenko vs Grasso.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko was a minus 800 favorite in the first fight and minus 160 in the second, now a plus 120 underdog. She was up 2-1 in the first before being submitted, and should have won the last fight if not for a bad scorecard. Expects Shevchenko to come even safer and cleaner, leaning on her wrestling to win on the scorecards.

plus 120 underdog
"I do have to lean with chevchenko here once again who was a minus 800 favorite in their first fight minus 160 favorite in their second fight and now finds herself as a plus 120 Underdog"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 9, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

The MMA Guru picks Alexa Grasso. He notes Shevchenko is aging at 36 and may carry negative energy from the controversial loss. Grasso is younger and improving, and he sees her capitalizing on Shevchenko's potential emotional state. He also mentions Grasso dropped Shevchenko in the second fight and could finish with a choke or win by decision.

Grasso by decision or late rounds finish with a choke
"I'm going with Alexa Gro shev shenko is just an aging fighter had a moment in the sun... I think she can capitalize more I think she's the more improving she's the younger fighter"
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Draw (split) (48–47, 47–48, 47–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 1 84 of 203 41% 262 of 408 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:39
Valentina Shevchenko 0 80 of 179 44% 199 of 301 4 of 7 57% 1 0 8:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 12 of 41 29% 60 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 40 35% 25 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:20
2 Alexa Grasso 1 28 of 42 66% 86 of 107 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Valentina Shevchenko 0 15 of 29 51% 62 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:03
3 Alexa Grasso 0 4 of 15 26% 35 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
Valentina Shevchenko 0 9 of 18 50% 40 of 51 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:16
4 Alexa Grasso 0 20 of 49 40% 38 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
Valentina Shevchenko 0 19 of 43 44% 31 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:58
5 Alexa Grasso 0 20 of 56 35% 43 of 89 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:30
Valentina Shevchenko 0 23 of 49 46% 41 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 84 of 203 41% 54 of 151 12 of 22 18 of 30 51 of 160 31 of 35 2 of 8
Valentina Shevchenko 80 of 179 44% 61 of 158 6 of 8 13 of 13 67 of 158 6 of 8 7 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 12 of 41 29% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 9 9 of 35 3 of 6 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 40 35% 9 of 35 4 of 4 1 of 1 12 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 28 of 42 66% 20 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 3 10 of 24 17 of 17 1 of 1
Valentina Shevchenko 15 of 29 51% 9 of 22 0 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 14 1 of 2 7 of 13
3 Alexa Grasso 4 of 15 26% 3 of 11 0 of 1 1 of 3 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 9 of 18 50% 6 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 3 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Alexa Grasso 20 of 49 40% 13 of 37 2 of 5 5 of 7 11 of 39 9 of 10 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 19 of 43 44% 17 of 41 0 of 0 2 of 2 18 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Alexa Grasso 20 of 56 35% 11 of 43 2 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 47 2 of 2 1 of 7
Valentina Shevchenko 23 of 49 46% 20 of 46 2 of 2 1 of 1 21 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Valentina Shevchenko despite her recent loss, believing she will wrestle heavy like she did against Maia. He notes her odds are the best since 2017 and compares it to Amanda Nunes getting her belt back. He acknowledges Grasso's skills but thinks Shevchenko's adjustments will lead to victory. He has no bet yet due to PTSD from UFC 293.

"I'm still picking Valentina despite the poor performance against Tyler despite her losing this exact fight just six months ago"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Shevchenko, arguing that she was winning the first fight until a mistake. He notes Shevchenko outlanded Grasso in most rounds and has more tools on the feet. He believes Grasso's takedown defense is still poor and that Shevchenko's experience and skill will prevail. He predicts a dominant decision, 49-46 or 50-45.

dominant decision
"I gotta go shift Janko here I'm gonna take her to win by a pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Cody picks Grasso at plus 140, emphasizing the five-year age difference and Shevchenko's decline. He points out that Grasso won the first round in their first fight, was out-striking Shevchenko, and submitted her after a spinning back kick. He believes the momentum was with Grasso and that Shevchenko's cardio may not hold up. He also notes the 90% rematch stat and says Grasso has a lot of merit.

Grasso wins in round 4 or 5 (mentioned as hedge opportunity); fight goes distance minus 135
"I'm kind of Flippy floppy on this Main Event... I'll probably go with that plus 140 on Gro as well."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Valentina Shevchenko despite acknowledging the historical trend of long-reigning champions losing immediate rematches. He notes that submission losses are easier to recover from than knockouts, and he believes Valentina's decline may be overstated. However, he admits his bitterness over missing the plus-200 line on Grasso influences his pick, and he hopes he is wrong because he would like to see the division move forward with fresh matchups.

missed plus-200 on Grasso, now plus-145; notes buy-low spot on Valentina at minus-170
"I'm gonna go with uh Valentina but I hope I'm wrong"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko had a clear grappling advantage in the first fight, controlling rounds 2 and 3 before getting caught in the fourth. She should make adjustments, trust her striking more to set up takedowns, and bank rounds early. Grasso may have improved takedown defense, but Shevchenko's strength and experience should prevail. I'm hesitant because of the similarity to Usman vs Edwards 2, but I still favor Shevchenko by decision.

"I still see the advantages in shevchenko's corner and I feel like she's going to be strong enough and maybe make the adjustments required... give me chefchenko and new to regain her title this weekend and I think she does …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexa Grasso

Paul sides with Grasso as a slight underdog, citing Shevchenko's age (35) and recent vulnerability in fights against Taylor Santos and Jennifer Maia. He notes Grasso's youth (30) and improvement, and mentions a 90% stat where younger challengers who beat an older champion win the rematch. However, he is hesitant because the fight is in Vegas, not Mexico, and he may not bet it.

Fight goes distance minus 135; Shevchenko over 90.5 significant strikes; Shevchenko over 3 takedowns
"I'm going to slide side ever so slight with the underdog... I'll side with the champ ever ever so reluctantly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Alexa Grasso, having switched from Grasso. He rewatched the first fight and notes Shevchenko was winning on all scorecards before the submission. He believes Shevchenko will focus on grappling and avoid spinning back kicks. He compares it to the Nunes-Pena rematch, suggesting Shevchenko will be more focused. He predicts a 48-47 unanimous decision for Shevchenko.

unanimous decision 48-47
"I'm going with Valentina Chef Shanker"
LOSS vs Alexa Grasso
Submission (face crank) R4 4:34 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexa Grasso 0 87 of 145 60% 167 of 228 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:24
Valentina Shevchenko 0 59 of 181 32% 182 of 308 0 of 2 0% 1 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexa Grasso 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Valentina Shevchenko 0 24 of 65 36% 32 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:12
2 Alexa Grasso 0 12 of 22 54% 56 of 68 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:02
Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 36 19% 60 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Alexa Grasso 0 27 of 32 84% 53 of 59 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:22
Valentina Shevchenko 0 15 of 37 40% 70 of 94 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Alexa Grasso 0 22 of 40 55% 32 of 50 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Valentina Shevchenko 0 13 of 43 30% 20 of 51 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexa Grasso 87 of 145 60% 68 of 121 8 of 12 11 of 12 80 of 133 2 of 7 5 of 5
Valentina Shevchenko 59 of 181 32% 31 of 137 12 of 18 16 of 26 50 of 172 8 of 8 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexa Grasso 26 of 51 50% 14 of 37 5 of 6 7 of 8 25 of 48 1 of 3 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 24 of 65 36% 9 of 45 6 of 7 9 of 13 18 of 59 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alexa Grasso 12 of 22 54% 9 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 11 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 36 19% 6 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 3 7 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexa Grasso 27 of 32 84% 26 of 30 0 of 1 1 of 1 22 of 27 0 of 0 5 of 5
Valentina Shevchenko 15 of 37 40% 8 of 24 3 of 7 4 of 6 13 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1
4 Alexa Grasso 22 of 40 55% 19 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1 22 of 38 0 of 2 0 of 0
Valentina Shevchenko 13 of 43 30% 8 of 35 3 of 4 2 of 4 12 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, stating she is better everywhere and will push Grasso around. He notes that Grasso is not a dangerous fighter and that Shevchenko should have no issues. Angelo sees this as a relief fight for Shevchenko after the Talia Santos fight.

"Valentina's gonna sort of push her around Steamroller she's gonna be bigger stronger have the better striking have the better grappling"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady is confident in Valentina Shevchenko, citing her superior striking and grappling. He notes Grasso has struggled with grappling in the past, and Shevchenko can take her down at will and dominate on the mat. He predicts a third-round TKO for Shevchenko, dismissing the idea that Grasso can pull off an upset.

third round TKO
"give me a Valentina to win this fight give me Valentina to win this fight I'll say third round TKO for Valentina chefchenko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody believes Shevchenko is nearly unbeatable at 125 and that Grasso lacks the grappling to exploit her. He notes Shevchenko's takedown ability and well-rounded game will be too much. He expects a decision win for Shevchenko but won't bet the -700 moneyline; he would parlay it.

Valentina by decision; would parlay but not bet moneyline alone
"minus 700 like no way but I think he chased the Valentino by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Connor is confident Shevchenko wins, citing her ability to control distance and bully opponents in the clinch. He notes Grasso's poor range fighting and lack of feints or timing variation, which will make it easy for Shevchenko to counter or clinch. He believes Grasso's only path is a knockout in the pocket or a submission from her back, both unlikely. He mentions Shevchenko's declining athleticism but says Grasso's stylistic shortcomings are a death sentence.

Mentions Shevchenko opened at -550 and is now -737; Grasso +400 to +506. Implies Shevchenko is a parlay piece.
"It just seems like a death zone for Grasso. I think it looks like a pretty easily winnable fight for Valentina."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Valentina Shevchenko, but notes that Grasso's volume striking could cause problems early. He believes Shevchenko may need to use her wrestling to dominate. Jacob acknowledges a path for Grasso but ultimately sees Shevchenko as the more complete fighter.

"it is a chef shenko play pretty much all the way with all that said"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko is a fast, explosive striker with a good ground game. Grasso is a good striker but has struggled with takedowns. Shevchenko will likely take the fight to the ground and control Grasso, winning a decision or possibly a TKO finish.

"I think that chefchenko is a good enough Striker to remain competitive well to have her moments and the Striking wrong here but I'd be surprised if we don't see shevchenko look to get this fight to the ground"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko but prefers the over 4.5 rounds at plus money. He notes Grasso has improved grappling and has never been finished outside of a submission loss to Suarez. He sees the fight going the distance and thinks the over is a solid bet.

Over 4.5 rounds (+120); fight goes to decision
"I've been considering the over four and a half rounds it's like plus 120 plus 125 or even fight goes to decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko, believing her kicks will be the difference. He notes Grasso's boxing is good but she doesn't throw many kicks, and Shevchenko's top game could also be a factor. He predicts a decision win.

"I'm gonna go with Valentina Chef shenko here... I think the kicks are going to be the Difference Maker here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Zane agrees Shevchenko wins, emphasizing that Grasso's lack of distance management and predictable entries will lead to Shevchenko's clinch bullying. He notes Grasso is a good pocket boxer but cannot get there safely, and Shevchenko's takedown defense is weak but Grasso lacks the strength to exploit it. He sees Shevchenko's consistent game plan overwhelming Grasso.

"I think we are probably looking at the first stages of Shevchenko declining... but it still seems like a death zone for Grasso."
WIN vs Taila Santos
Decision (split) (48–47, 47–48, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 275: Teixeira vs. Prochazka · Jun 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 77 of 139 55% 234 of 309 3 of 5 60% 1 0 4:15
Taila Santos 0 55 of 102 53% 128 of 180 3 of 3 100% 3 2 8:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 16 62% 35 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:28
Taila Santos 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:51
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 7 of 19 36% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:09
Taila Santos 0 4 of 7 57% 31 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:40
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 17 of 22 77% 46 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Taila Santos 0 7 of 15 46% 10 of 18 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:21
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 29 of 59 49% 37 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Taila Santos 0 28 of 56 50% 33 of 62 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 14 of 23 60% 52 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:36
Taila Santos 0 11 of 14 78% 42 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 77 of 139 55% 46 of 100 12 of 18 19 of 21 65 of 123 7 of 10 5 of 6
Taila Santos 55 of 102 53% 18 of 58 11 of 15 26 of 29 45 of 89 4 of 5 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 16 62% 5 of 8 2 of 4 3 of 4 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 0
Taila Santos 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 7 of 19 36% 5 of 14 1 of 3 1 of 2 3 of 13 0 of 1 4 of 5
Taila Santos 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 3
3 Valentina Shevchenko 17 of 22 77% 6 of 11 3 of 3 8 of 8 16 of 21 1 of 1 0 of 0
Taila Santos 7 of 15 46% 0 of 6 1 of 2 6 of 7 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 29 of 59 49% 20 of 48 6 of 8 3 of 3 27 of 56 2 of 3 0 of 0
Taila Santos 28 of 56 50% 11 of 35 6 of 9 11 of 12 23 of 49 1 of 2 4 of 5
5 Valentina Shevchenko 14 of 23 60% 10 of 19 0 of 0 4 of 4 13 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1
Taila Santos 11 of 14 78% 2 of 4 2 of 2 7 of 8 11 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko confidently, acknowledging she is the best in the division. He notes Santos is dangerous and the toughest opponent Shevchenko has faced recently, but still believes Shevchenko wins. He mentions the odds are wide but doesn't recommend a bet due to the high price.

"i still think valentina shivchenko wins this fight but there is a world where she doesn't and tyla has some success"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by TKO, expressing high confidence. He notes that Santos' best wins are against lower-level competition and that she lost to Mara Romero Barela. He believes Shevchenko is superior everywhere and will break Santos down, finishing her mid-to-late in the fight.

win by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Shevchenko to win I'm gonna say Shevchenko actually finishes Santos I think it could be early but I'm kind of lean like mid to late."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident in Shevchenko, citing her elite skills, wrestling advantage, and championship experience. He questions Santos' level of competition and output, noting she hasn't faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to win by decision.

Shevchenko by decision; over 3.5 rounds
"i likely end up going valentina on the top ticket but uh i i do have some hesitancy at this like exact moment"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, dismissing Taila Santos's chances due to her poor performance against Mara Romero Barella. He believes Shevchenko is in her prime and has never been dominated in any facet. He notes that Santos's best win is against Joanne Calderwood, who gets finished repeatedly, and that Santos's nerves against Barella indicate she cannot handle the pressure of fighting Shevchenko. He expects Shevchenko to impose her will and win decisively.

Shevchenko by decision at plus 600 (mentioned in context of Holm fight); not laying minus 600
"I got chefchenko to defend uh her belt but yeah I'm curious to see if uh Tyler Santos can bring the fight to her"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Shevchenko is the better fighter everywhere. Santos has not shown enough to suggest she can compete with Shevchenko's level. Santos struggled to finish lesser opponents and lost to Mara Romero Borella. Shevchenko has fought Amanda Nunes closely and is on another level. The line is too high to bet, but Shevchenko wins easily.

Over 3.5 rounds (-160)
"I just haven't seen anything yet that's going to make me say i don't know valentina isn't going to just do what she normally does."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul is confident in Shevchenko, calling her the most skilled female fighter. He dismisses Santos' resume and believes Shevchenko's wrestling, striking, and cardio are superior. He expects a decision win for the champion.

Shevchenko by decision; over 3.5 rounds
"valentina's focused enough... she's got the wrestling advantage... she's got the striking advantage... shevchenko decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko to win, citing her elite level and experience. He expects Shevchenko to outstrike Santos at range, chopping legs and jabbing. He acknowledges Santos has power and could land some shots, but believes Shevchenko's defense and composure will prevail. He thinks the fight will be competitive but Shevchenko will win clearly. He criticizes the title shot timing for Santos, suggesting she needed another fight.

"i'm going to go valentina shevchenko um i don't mean to have a hot take you know i mean like a shocking news i'm going with valentina chefchenko here"
WIN vs Lauren Murphy
TKO (elbows and punches) R4 4:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 98 of 170 57% 132 of 204 3 of 4 75% 0 0 4:04
Lauren Murphy 0 11 of 91 12% 19 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 20 of 39 51% 24 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Lauren Murphy 0 3 of 24 12% 3 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 17 58% 30 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:13
Lauren Murphy 0 1 of 18 5% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 21 of 48 43% 25 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Lauren Murphy 0 5 of 30 16% 6 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 47 of 66 71% 53 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:12
Lauren Murphy 0 2 of 19 10% 2 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 98 of 170 57% 62 of 126 19 of 24 17 of 20 72 of 137 6 of 8 20 of 25
Lauren Murphy 11 of 91 12% 4 of 73 3 of 13 4 of 5 11 of 91 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 20 of 39 51% 9 of 24 5 of 7 6 of 8 19 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 3 of 24 12% 2 of 21 0 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 17 58% 6 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 8 of 14 0 of 0 2 of 3
Lauren Murphy 1 of 18 5% 1 of 15 0 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Valentina Shevchenko 21 of 48 43% 9 of 33 6 of 8 6 of 7 20 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lauren Murphy 5 of 30 16% 0 of 23 2 of 4 3 of 3 5 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 47 of 66 71% 38 of 56 5 of 6 4 of 4 25 of 38 4 of 6 18 of 22
Lauren Murphy 2 of 19 10% 1 of 14 1 of 4 0 of 1 2 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Angelo picks Shevchenko, calling her one of the best fighters ever. He highlights her technical striking, grappling, and championship composure. He notes that Murphy's path to victory is narrow and that Shevchenko can win anywhere. Angelo expects a dominant performance.

Angelo suggests less less on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting a finish in round three. He also mentions betting on Shevchenko by stoppage in each round to guarantee profit.
"Valentina will go down as one of the best to ever do it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko has every advantage: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes Murphy is tough and has never been finished, but she has never faced anyone near Shevchenko's caliber. He expects Shevchenko to find a finish late in the fight.

fourth round tko
"i'm going to take valenciano to finish lauren murphy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody is confident Shevchenko wins anywhere the fight goes, citing her superior kickboxing, speed, footwork, and grappling. He notes Murphy's durability and never being knocked out, but believes Shevchenko's patience and skill will lead to a late stoppage, possibly becoming the first to finish Murphy. He leans over 2.5 rounds due to Murphy's toughness.

over 2.5 rounds (-120), Shevchenko inside the distance
"i think we're all on the same page that she's going to win the fight she can win this fight anywhere she chooses to"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi confidently picks Valentina Shevchenko, stating that Lauren Murphy's toughness and durability are not enough to overcome the massive skill gap. He notes that Murphy has never been finished, but Shevchenko's technique is superior. Levi believes it would take a fluke for Murphy to win, and he expects Shevchenko to win, though he is unsure whether it will be by decision or finish.

"give me valentina i guess the big question is inside the distance or by decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Jacob picks Shevchenko, noting she's running out of opponents and should fight Nunes again. He praises her judo and grappling. Jacob is confident Shevchenko wins easily.

Jacob agrees with less less on Monkey Knife Fight. He mentions knockout Kings and might include Shevchenko.
"Chevy's gonna win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko by fourth-round TKO. He believes Shevchenko will eventually set up the crucifix position and finish Murphy. He notes that Murphy is durable and may survive early, but Shevchenko's pressure will increase. He likes the over 2.5 rounds at even money. He thinks Murphy's takedown success will be temporary and Shevchenko will adapt.

Over 2.5 rounds at +100; round 4 prop for Shevchenko
"i'm gonna go with chevchenko and i'm gonna call it fourth round tko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko confidently, noting her dominance and the large talent gap. He mentions she could finish inside the distance but also acknowledges she can be patient. He is unsure about betting the moneyline due to the price and considers the over 2.5 rounds, but has no bet yet.

over 2.5 rounds (considering)
"breaking news shevchenko is my pick um i think she wins inside the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko over Lauren Murphy, citing Shevchenko's vast superiority in all areas. He notes that Murphy is on a five-fight winning streak but lost her last two fights (split decisions) and is 38 years old. He expects Shevchenko to win by second-round crucifix TKO, similar to her fight against Andrade, as Murphy will likely shoot for a takedown and get reversed. He dismisses Murphy's chances entirely.

second round crucifix tko
"second round crucifix tko just like the andraj fight"
TKO (elbows) R2 3:19 · UFC 261: Usman vs. Masvidal 2 · Apr 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 32 of 39 82% 90 of 97 7 of 7 100% 1 0 5:11
Jéssica Andrade 0 10 of 15 66% 47 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 10 of 16 62% 26 of 32 5 of 5 100% 1 0 2:52
Jéssica Andrade 0 8 of 11 72% 31 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 22 of 23 95% 64 of 65 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:19
Jéssica Andrade 0 2 of 4 50% 16 of 18 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 32 of 39 82% 27 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 15 5 of 6 18 of 18
Jéssica Andrade 10 of 15 66% 2 of 6 8 of 8 0 of 1 4 of 9 6 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 10 of 16 62% 6 of 12 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 8 of 11 72% 0 of 2 8 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 22 of 23 95% 21 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 3 2 of 2 18 of 18
Jéssica Andrade 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Shevchenko to win by fifth-round TKO. He notes Shevchenko's technical striking, cardio, and takedown defense will be key. Andrade is hittable and smaller, and Shevchenko can pick her apart from the outside. He thinks the bigger cage favors Shevchenko and expects a late finish or dominant decision.

Shevchenko by TKO in round 5
"give me chef chanko i'm gonna say she wins by a fifth round tko victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Cody picks Shevchenko but expresses concern about her recent reliance on grappling and low output. He notes Andrade's takedown defense and power but thinks Shevchenko's kickboxing and reach advantage will allow her to pick Andrade apart. He expects a competitive fight but ultimately sees Shevchenko winning, possibly by decision. He also likes the over 4.5 rounds.

Over 4.5 rounds (-110)
"i think chevchenko coming down they're both former 135rs she had the success against amanda nunez who's just one of the best of all time she's got that grappling she's got that ground game she's got that cardio she's got …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel picks Valentina Shevchenko to win inside the distance, believing her technique will override Andrade's power. He notes Andrade is too open to getting hit and that Shevchenko can get the fight to the mat. He expects the fight to end under three rounds.

inside the distance, under three rounds
"i'm gonna go with valentina inside the distance here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

I think Shevchenko is technically superior and will outclass Andrade. She has a diverse striking game and can also take the fight to the ground. Andrade is a brawler with power, but Shevchenko's speed and technique should allow her to pick her apart. I like Shevchenko by decision at +140, and the over 2.5 at -185 is also a solid play as Shevchenko tends to grind out wins.

Shevchenko by decision +140; over 2.5 -185
"i think that uh andraj will have an issue with the uh the speed um the the technical striking abilities of shochenko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Paul picks Shevchenko to retain, citing her technical striking and reach advantage. He acknowledges Andrade's power and takedown ability but believes Shevchenko's footwork and distance control will be key. He notes the -425 price is steep but expects Shevchenko to win, possibly by decision. He also mentions the over 4.5 rounds as a potential play.

Over 4.5 rounds (-110), Shevchenko by decision
"i think she should pick andrea to part in this spot i don't love the price at minus 425 i do think that this is the riskiest fight for shivchenko in a in a minute but uh shichenko retains her …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko by unanimous decision. He acknowledges Andrade's power and momentum but believes Shevchenko is a bigger, stronger, more technical striker with better cardio. He thinks Andrade will win the first round but Shevchenko will take over in the later rounds, using grappling to neutralize Andrade's offense. He notes Andrade is moving up in weight and may swing too hard early.

"i'm going with valentina shepchenko"
Jennifer Maia - Fight History
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 41 of 101 40% 60 of 126 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:25
Jennifer Maia 0 24 of 46 52% 64 of 100 2 of 6 33% 1 0 7:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 24 of 58 41% 28 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 30 46% 14 of 30 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:25
2 Viviane Araújo 0 0 of 5 0% 8 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 2 of 2 100% 24 of 35 2 of 2 100% 1 0 4:35
3 Viviane Araújo 0 17 of 38 44% 24 of 45 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:25
Jennifer Maia 0 8 of 14 57% 26 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 41 of 101 40% 29 of 87 2 of 4 10 of 10 31 of 88 10 of 13 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 24 of 46 52% 15 of 36 4 of 5 5 of 5 22 of 43 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 24 of 58 41% 15 of 48 2 of 3 7 of 7 21 of 54 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 30 46% 8 of 23 2 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 0 of 5 0% 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 17 of 38 44% 14 of 34 0 of 1 3 of 3 10 of 29 7 of 9 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 8 of 14 57% 5 of 11 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 12 0 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Angelo is very confident in Jennifer Maia, calling her at -141 a great deal. He thinks she is better everywhere except raw takedowns, and expects her to weather Araújo's early storm, take over striking, and win a decision due to superior cardio. He already placed a unit on her and expects the line to widen.

Already placed 1 unit at -141
"Jennifer mayia at minus 141 is a great deal I think she dominates this fight great deal I already have a unit on her"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady picks Viviane Araújo with little confidence. He likes her striking and wrestling advantage early, but worries about her poor cardio and durability. He expects Araújo to win the first round, Maia the third, and the fight to go to a close decision that could be affected by judges.

"I'm going to take Vivan aruu here with little to no confidence it's hard to have confidence in somebody with no cardio"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Cody picks Araújo, citing her superior speed and technique. He notes that at her best, she is faster and cleaner than Maia, and can mix in takedowns to steal rounds. He acknowledges her past cardio issues but believes she has corrected them in recent fights, pointing to her performances against Andrea Lee and Alexa Grasso. He expects a 15-minute fight and thinks Araújo can win two of three rounds.

"I'll take Viviane Araújo"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The host picks Jennifer Maia, citing her superior experience, cardio, and ability to withstand Araújo's early striking. He expects Maia to take over in the second and third rounds, possibly using takedowns to wear on Araújo. He predicts a decision win for Maia.

"give me Maya here I think she uh again after I close first round she should should start to pull away in the second and third rounds where she should be able to get her hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Paul leans towards Maia based on her high volume in recent fights (109 and 145 significant strikes). He acknowledges Araújo's takedown threat but notes that judges now require control time and damage from top position. He expects a close decision and thinks Maia's volume will edge it. He also mentions the over 2.5 rounds at -450 as a potential play.

Over 2.5 rounds at -450
"I'll lean towards Jennifer Maia just based on volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Viviane Araújo. He thinks Maia has better boxing and is scrappier. He notes Araújo is on a two-fight losing streak and didn't look good against Amanda Ribas, while Maia is on a two-fight winning streak, including a win over Casey O'Neill. He expects a decision win for Maia, calling it a coin flip but leaning her way due to momentum.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jennifer Meer over Vivian arajo I think she's got way better boxing"
WIN vs Casey O'Neill
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 145 of 349 41% 151 of 355 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:23
Casey O'Neill 0 137 of 264 51% 137 of 264 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 47 of 113 41% 48 of 114 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Casey O'Neill 0 43 of 96 44% 43 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jennifer Maia 0 51 of 119 42% 55 of 123 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Casey O'Neill 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jennifer Maia 0 47 of 117 40% 48 of 118 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:56
Casey O'Neill 0 47 of 84 55% 47 of 84 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 145 of 349 41% 123 of 321 11 of 16 11 of 12 124 of 321 21 of 28 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 137 of 264 51% 108 of 226 24 of 32 5 of 6 129 of 254 8 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 47 of 113 41% 37 of 101 4 of 6 6 of 6 43 of 108 4 of 5 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 43 of 96 44% 35 of 85 7 of 9 1 of 2 41 of 93 2 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 51 of 119 42% 44 of 109 3 of 5 4 of 5 46 of 112 5 of 7 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 47 of 84 55% 36 of 70 8 of 11 3 of 3 45 of 82 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 47 of 117 40% 42 of 111 4 of 5 1 of 1 35 of 101 12 of 16 0 of 0
Casey O'Neill 47 of 84 55% 37 of 71 9 of 12 1 of 1 43 of 79 4 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo picks Casey O'Neill but is not betting. He thinks O'Neill will come forward with volume and wrestling, but her takedown defense was exposed against Roxanne. He notes Jennifer Maia is well-rounded and tough, and could cause problems if she gets takedowns. He expects a close fight.

"I do think Casey O'Neal wins this could be a Casey O'Neill special where she'll come forward tons of volume and then wrestle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady picks O'Neill, noting Maia refuses to wrestle despite being a black belt. He believes if Maia went for takedowns she would win, but she won't. On the feet, O'Neill has higher output and will win a decision. He is not a big fan of O'Neill but likes her stylistically here.

"I'm gonna take uh Casey O'Neill here to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Cody picks Maia as an underdog, citing the 'dog or pass' strategy in women's MMA. He notes O'Neill is young, green, and pushed too fast, while Maia is a veteran who fought for a title. He thinks Maia's experience and clinch strength could be factors, but acknowledges O'Neill's wrestling and top control are threats. He expects to lose but trusts the long-term underdog strategy.

"I think I'm gonna take Jennifer Maya will I lose this one because I'm taking the underdog now yeah probably but long term Pac-Man strategy has been the most effective strategy I've ever seen"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Jennifer Maia

Connor picks Maia because she is a tough, durable fighter who is difficult to take down off the cage. He notes that Maia has improved her boxing and aggression, landing left hooks and combinations. O'Neill relies on size and aggression but has poor defense and footwork. Connor thinks Maia's defensive wrestling and low center of gravity will neutralize O'Neill's takedowns. He also mentions that O'Neill's wild style leaves openings that Maia can exploit with straight punches.

Maia opened +135, currently +147; O'Neill opened -155, currently -178
"I just don't think Maya leaves enough open."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Jacob is a big fan of Casey O'Neill and picks her to win a close decision. He thinks her experience against Roxanne prepared her for a similar pressure fighter in Maia. He notes O'Neill has a bad [__] in the octagon and will find a way to win in a close fight. He expects a 29-28 decision.

"I like uh King Casey all day every day in a close fight she's a bad [__] man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is coming back from a devastating knee injury but is young and trains at a high level. Maia is a BJJ black belt who prefers striking, and her experience could be a factor. O'Neill's strength and aggression should allow her to grind out a decision, but there are many question marks. No betting interest at the current line.

"I have no interest in putting money on Casey O'Neal as a you know a moderate favorite in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul picks O'Neill but is hesitant. He notes O'Neill's grappling advantage and thinks she can win on volume and takedowns. However, he points out O'Neill didn't look great against Roxanne Modafferi and struggled early against Antonina Shevchenko. He thinks minus 180 is too high and prefers O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns on PrizePicks. He says it will be dicey and your butt will be puckered until the final bell.

Casey O'Neill over 2.5 takedowns (PrizePicks)
"I'm gonna take Casey O'Neill but like I minus 180 I don't want to get involved because I think there will be some really really greasy spots"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

The MMA Guru picks Jennifer Maia over Casey O'Neill, going against the majority. He notes O'Neill looked suspect against Roxanne Modafferi and gets caught on the feet, while Maia has crisp boxing and a good submission game. Maia has gone the distance with Valentina Shevchenko and given problems to top fighters. He believes Maia is underrated and O'Neill is overhyped as a prospect.

Maia is a big underdog (juicy underdog)
"I'm gonna go with Jennifer Meyer here I think this is pretty 50 50 but I'm leaning in the direction of Jennifer Meyer"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2023 (fight day)
Jennifer Maia

Zane also picks Maia, noting that O'Neill is a prospect who has beaten lower-level competition. Maia is a gatekeeper who has only lost to title challengers. Zane highlights Maia's improved boxing and her ability to stuff takedowns, especially off the cage. He thinks O'Neill's takedowns are low-drive and will be neutralized. Zane also points out that O'Neill's defensive flaws will be exposed by Maia's steady output. He believes the odds should be reversed and that Maia is the better fighter.

Maia opened +135, currently +147; O'Neill opened -155, currently -178
"Maya is a... she's clearly the gatekeeper in this matchup and a more proven fighter than O'Neill."
WIN vs Maryna Moroz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 109 of 253 43% 117 of 261 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Maryna Moroz 0 80 of 272 29% 84 of 276 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 30 of 58 51% 36 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:32
Maryna Moroz 0 13 of 61 21% 13 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jennifer Maia 0 41 of 110 37% 41 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Maryna Moroz 0 41 of 114 35% 41 of 114 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jennifer Maia 0 38 of 85 44% 40 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Maryna Moroz 0 26 of 97 26% 30 of 101 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 109 of 253 43% 84 of 224 14 of 18 11 of 11 101 of 242 8 of 11 0 of 0
Maryna Moroz 80 of 272 29% 55 of 237 14 of 23 11 of 12 78 of 269 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 30 of 58 51% 23 of 49 3 of 5 4 of 4 28 of 56 2 of 2 0 of 0
Maryna Moroz 13 of 61 21% 9 of 52 4 of 9 0 of 0 12 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 41 of 110 37% 34 of 102 4 of 5 3 of 3 41 of 109 0 of 1 0 of 0
Maryna Moroz 41 of 114 35% 26 of 96 7 of 10 8 of 8 41 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 38 of 85 44% 27 of 73 7 of 8 4 of 4 32 of 77 6 of 8 0 of 0
Maryna Moroz 26 of 97 26% 20 of 89 3 of 4 3 of 4 25 of 95 1 of 2 0 of 0
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Daukaus · Mar 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 37 of 121 30% 56 of 141 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:16
Jennifer Maia 0 83 of 138 60% 101 of 157 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 16 of 57 28% 16 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Jennifer Maia 0 34 of 68 50% 34 of 68 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Manon Fiorot 0 5 of 20 25% 23 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:28
Jennifer Maia 0 19 of 24 79% 37 of 43 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:12
3 Manon Fiorot 0 16 of 44 36% 17 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
Jennifer Maia 0 30 of 46 65% 30 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 37 of 121 30% 23 of 103 9 of 13 5 of 5 30 of 111 6 of 9 1 of 1
Jennifer Maia 83 of 138 60% 40 of 91 24 of 28 19 of 19 76 of 131 2 of 2 5 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 16 of 57 28% 9 of 48 5 of 7 2 of 2 14 of 53 2 of 4 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 34 of 68 50% 13 of 46 11 of 12 10 of 10 32 of 66 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 5 of 20 25% 5 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 18 1 of 1 1 of 1
Jennifer Maia 19 of 24 79% 13 of 18 3 of 3 3 of 3 14 of 19 0 of 0 5 of 5
3 Manon Fiorot 16 of 44 36% 9 of 35 4 of 6 3 of 3 13 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 30 of 46 65% 14 of 27 10 of 13 6 of 6 30 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Manon Fiorot vs. Jennifer Maia

Round 1
Second verse, same as the first: the previous fight featured flyweights that drew unexpectedly low card placement given their relative place in their division, and the same can be said between the no. 4 Maia (19-8-1, 4-4 UFC) and the 13th ranked female flyweight known as “The Beast” Fiorot (8-1, 3-0 UFC). Drawing the charge for this interesting style matchup is referee Herb Dean, who gets a huge pop from the crowd. Dean who will know before anyone else whether Maia holds the line or if Fiorot can crash through to the top five. There is no glove touch, and instead the Frenchwoman wants to start striking, with side kicks to the lead leg. Maia replies with a straight left hand, and they both throw hands at the same time. Fiorot’s hands are faster, and her intercepting kicks are effective when Maia comes forward. Fiorot scores a few more kicks as Maia bears down on her, and she scores two or three punches before Maia can reach her. Maia is not deterred, as she continues to walk through body kicks to swing with heavy punches. Fiorot tags her opponent with a straight right hand, and she breaks it up with punches to the body as Maia looks to almost exclusively box with her. Fiorot lets Maia come at her so she can counter quickly and slip away to score kicks on the outside. “The Beast” lets go with a head kick, and Maia shrugs it off to score with a big left hand. Fiorot is forced to shake it off, and Maia lands another on the chin. Fiorot preemptively counters an advancing Maia with a left hook a few times, and she is doing damage to Maia’s lead leg as well with sharp kicks. The punches from the French kickboxer have opened up the nose of her foe, and Maia rushes ahead to try to tie her up. When Fiorot turns her around, Maia wings a quick elbow that gets Fiorot’s attention. Fiorot responds with a thudding body kick, and Maia tries to pay her back with an overhand right but is just out of reach. Fiorot slips the blow and dings her with a left hand, and Maia greets her with a right hand counter. Maia takes a leg kick so that she can swarm ahead, and she goes up high with a kick that stings Fiorot. The Frenchwoman threatens with a takedown, and Maia turns her around with ease until Fiorot pushes off. Fiorot scores a side kick to the midsection, and she lands a clean left hand right before the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
The round begins with Maia coming out aggressively. Fiorot catches her coming in with a kick to the body, but she cannot slow her as Maia tags her with a couple punches. Suddenly, Fiorot changes levels and hits a clean takedown right in the middle of the cage, putting the Brazilian on her back. Maia sits up and threatens to sweep, and Fiorot hacks at her with elbows to make her sit back down. Maia keeps a high guard, keeping Fiorot honest with a triangle setup. Fiorot sits up and has her leg snagged by Maia, who latches on to an ankle lock. Fiorot rushes to get back to her feet, and Maia goes right after her hips to hit a takedown of her own. As she looks to set up some sort of submission, Fiorot tosses her around and sets Maia on her back. Fiorot appears much more cautious this time in Maia’s guard, not willing to sit up and put herself in submission danger. Instead, Fiorot springs back up to her feet, not interested in playing the ground game anymore. Maia follows her back upright, and Fiorot gets off several kicks to the body. Maia cannot reach her as Fiorot snipes her from afar, and the Frenchwoman catches Maia on the way in and dumps her to the mat. Maia scrambles to get back up and boots Fiorot in the head, and Fiorot is in big trouble as she adjusts her top and tries to get her legs about her. Maia goes after another high kick, and Fiorot blocks it and is still trying to shake out the cobwebs. Maia gives chase, whiffing on another head kick and walking face-first into a punch. Maia comes up short on a Superwoman punch, and Fiorot circles away until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
The third round begins with Maia once more pressing the action, and she tries to engage in a brawl as Fiorot wants to stay on the outside with side kicks to the body. Fiorot looks to keep her distance, but Maia will not have it, pushing the pace and clinching her up. Maia cannot keep her tied up for long, and Fiorot returns to her preferred range with long, prodding kicks. The Brazilian continuously comes forward, only to absorb kicks to the body and legs. Maia starts to work on Fiorot’s lead leg, and Fiorot plants her feet to go after a hook kick. Maia blocks it and sprints ahead to go after a body lock takedown, and although she hits it, Fiorot spins her around and rolls through to stand back up. Maia advances without cutting her opponent off, absorbing kicks flush without being able to answer back. Fiorot jumps forward with a knee that slams into Maia’s guard, and Maia rubs her nose and marches onward. Maia takes a punch on the chin so that she can set up a thudding body kick, and Fiorot replies in kind with a side kick to the torso. Maia walks right into a kick to her chest, and she completely ignores it and brushes past a crescent kick in order to tie up the Frenchwoman. Maia goes to clinch, and Fiorot pushes away. Maia attacks with a high kick when Fiorot goes low, and Maia kicks the body and slips back when Fiorot spins with a kick. Maia hears the 10-second clapper and begins to bull-rush her adversary, throwing hands right until the bitter end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Maia (29-28 Fiorot)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (30-27 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Jennifer Maia via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot, citing her nasty striking, killer instinct, and finishing power. He notes that Jennifer Maia's 33% takedown accuracy and only two takedowns in eight UFC fights won't be enough to get her out of danger against Fiorot's striking. He acknowledges Maia's experience and well-roundedness but believes Fiorot's striking differential and ability to work back to her feet make the difference.

"i like manafort to come in here throw hands get the job done so mayna ferreau is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision. He states that Maia does not use her grappling, averaging only 0.25 takedowns per 15 minutes, and will not win a striking fight against Fiorot. He notes that Fiorot is a big favorite and the line is widening. He cautions that Fiorot should not take Maia down, as Maia is dangerous off her back, but expects Fiorot to out-strike her.

Manon Fiorot wins by decision
"You gotta go fiora here... I will take man if you were to win I'll take her to win by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody picks Fiorot, comparing her to Caitlin Chookagian who outpointed Maia. He notes Fiorot's mobility, karate background, and striking variety. He thinks Maia is slow and will be outpointed. He likes Fiorot by decision prop.

Fiorot by decision
"i think that fioro fights the exact same game plan"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Levi picks Manon Fiorot, believing she will outpoint Maia with her sidekicks and volume. He notes Maia has the tools to win via takedowns but doesn't trust her to execute early enough. He thinks Fiorot is a legit prospect and will win on the scorecards, but the price (-400) is too high to bet. He calls it a dog or pass situation.

Fiorot by decision, pass on betting due to price
"I think that this is one more on the win column for the hot prospect manon fiore"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The host is high on Fiorot, citing her striking improvement, size advantage, and ability to replicate the game plan Catelyn Chookagian used against Maia. He expects Fiorot to keep the fight standing, use her speed and power, and potentially get a finish. He notes Maia is on short notice and that Fiorot's takedown defense and balance are strong.

Fiorot inside the distance
"i think fyro is worth the minus 400 shock in this spot because i think she'll do a good job in terms of keeping this fight standing"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul picks Fiorot, expecting her to win a decision. He notes her range weapons and pace will break Maia. He thinks Maia is durable but slow and flat-footed. He prefers Fiorot by decision prop.

Fiorot by decision
"i see fioro winning a a very convincing 30-27 decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

The MMA Guru picks Manon Fiorot over Jennifer Maia, calling it a massive risk that no one is talking about. He notes Maia's grappling ability (taking down Shevchenko for a round) but believes Fiorot's takedown defense and physical strength will hold up. The Guru expects Fiorot to cruise to a 30-27 decision with power shots, as Maia may be hesitant to press in due to the power difference.

"i'm gonna go with man on fiora over jessica i or jennifer meyer"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Katlyn Cerminara 0 72 of 177 40% 81 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:34
Jennifer Maia 0 52 of 171 30% 60 of 180 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:41
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Katlyn Cerminara 0 16 of 41 39% 24 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:14
Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 32 43% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Katlyn Cerminara 0 20 of 51 39% 21 of 53 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:20
Jennifer Maia 0 15 of 49 30% 17 of 52 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
3 Katlyn Cerminara 0 36 of 85 42% 36 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jennifer Maia 0 23 of 90 25% 24 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Katlyn Cerminara 72 of 177 40% 44 of 136 21 of 32 7 of 9 68 of 171 4 of 6 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 52 of 171 30% 31 of 143 5 of 8 16 of 20 48 of 167 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Katlyn Cerminara 16 of 41 39% 8 of 32 6 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 14 of 32 43% 7 of 23 1 of 1 6 of 8 14 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Katlyn Cerminara 20 of 51 39% 10 of 35 8 of 13 2 of 3 17 of 46 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 15 of 49 30% 9 of 40 2 of 4 4 of 5 12 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Katlyn Cerminara 36 of 85 42% 26 of 69 7 of 12 3 of 4 36 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 23 of 90 25% 15 of 80 2 of 3 6 of 7 22 of 89 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Angelo picks Cerminara based on her volume and pace, referencing their first fight where she outstruck Maia even while on her back for half a round. He expects Maia to grapple more but believes Cerminara's takedown defense and striking output will win another decision.

"caitlyn chicago's the pick i think this fight looks very similar to the first fight with a little more emphasis on grappling from maya"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Big Brady expects the fight to play out similarly to their first meeting, with Cerminara using her reach and staying on the outside to outpoint Maia. He criticizes Maia's fight IQ, noting she rarely shoots takedowns despite having good grappling. He thinks Maia could win if she wrestles but does not trust her to do so. He picks Cerminara by decision but is not touching the moneyline due to the close nature of the fight.

"jimmy choo kagan by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Cody picks Chookagian, highlighting her volume, speed, and improved grappling since the first fight. He doubts Maia's ability to implement a wrestling-heavy game plan, noting Maia's takedown success is overblown. He expects Chookagian to win by decision, likely 30-27 or 29-28. He recommends the decision prop at -120.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"the minus 180 price tag yeah it doesn't look great but by decision which is where this is very likely headed that doesn't look bad to me whatsoever"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Daniel Levi leans toward Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) but is not confident. He notes that Chookagian's volume and movement at distance will likely edge two rounds, but Maia has a path to victory if she implements her grappling earlier. He mentions Maia's top control and that she won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. Levi thinks the line should be closer and could see Maia winning, but ultimately leans Chookagian.

"i would lean chew kegen to edge two rounds but like it's not gonna surprise me one bit if maya comes out here with a better game plan"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The host expects a repeat of their first fight, where Cerminara's stick-and-move style frustrated Maia. He believes Cerminara's range and movement will be too much for Maia, who hasn't shown significant improvement since their last bout. He notes Maia's takedown success in the third round of their first fight but thinks Cerminara can escape similar positions. The host is confident in Cerminara winning a decision, citing her consistent performance against similar opponents.

"i'm going to be going with catelyn chicagan here and i do believe she wins this fight once again via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

Paul picks Chookagian, expecting a similar fight to their first where Chookagian's volume and reach advantage win rounds. He notes Maia's path is takedowns, but doubts she can secure them early and often. He mentions Chookagian's improved ground game and Maia's inconsistent wrestling. He sees a decision win for Chookagian.

Chookagian by decision at -120 on DraftKings
"i'll go to chicago and say the exact same thing plays out as we had seen before because i can't really trust maya to go in there and secure takedowns early and often"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Katlyn Cerminara

The MMA Guru picks Katlyn Cerminara (Chookagian) to win by decision, citing her superior stand-up and reach advantage (68-inch reach vs Maia's 64-inch). He notes that Maia had a close fight with Jessica Eye, who is on her way out, while Chookagian has beaten Cynthia Calvillo and Antonina Shevchenko. He trusts Chookagian to keep the fight standing and out-strike Maia at range, and he values her activity and recent grappling improvement. He predicts a unanimous decision (30-27).

"i'm gonna go with caitlyn chukagi in here she's got better stand up than jennifer meyer"
WIN vs Jessica Eye
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 264: Poirier vs. McGregor 3 · Jul 10, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 98 of 265 36% 102 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Jessica Eye 0 100 of 276 36% 104 of 281 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 34 of 97 35% 35 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 34 of 103 33% 34 of 103 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:19
2 Jennifer Maia 0 34 of 85 40% 36 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Jessica Eye 0 32 of 89 35% 36 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
3 Jennifer Maia 0 30 of 83 36% 31 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jessica Eye 0 34 of 84 40% 34 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 98 of 265 36% 71 of 232 16 of 20 11 of 13 88 of 250 10 of 15 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 100 of 276 36% 56 of 224 24 of 29 20 of 23 98 of 273 0 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 34 of 97 35% 18 of 80 9 of 10 7 of 7 33 of 93 1 of 4 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 34 of 103 33% 21 of 86 13 of 16 0 of 1 32 of 100 0 of 1 2 of 2
2 Jennifer Maia 34 of 85 40% 26 of 74 5 of 7 3 of 4 28 of 78 6 of 7 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 32 of 89 35% 15 of 70 4 of 5 13 of 14 32 of 89 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 30 of 83 36% 27 of 78 2 of 3 1 of 2 27 of 79 3 of 4 0 of 0
Jessica Eye 34 of 84 40% 20 of 68 7 of 8 7 of 8 34 of 84 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Angelo picks Maia, stating she is better everywhere. He notes Maia has good jiu-jitsu and underrated striking, while Eye is a step behind and struggles when bullied. He expects Maia to close distance, grapple, and win a decision. He suggests a prop bet on unanimous decision for plus odds.

Jennifer Maia by unanimous decision
"jennifer maya is basically better everywhere if you're comparing her to jessica i"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 4, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Big Brady picks Jennifer Maia to win by decision, but with low confidence. He notes that Maia should take the fight to the ground, but she has only attempted four takedowns in her entire UFC career. He thinks if she gets one takedown, she can ride out the round. He acknowledges the striking is close and that Eye has more volume. He is concerned about the -200 line and says he would never bet that. He picks Maia based on the assumption she fights smart.

"i will take maya to win but not not too much confidence in that"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Cody picks Maia, noting her improvement and grappling advantage. He thinks Eye has declined and has weight issues. He expects Maia to use takedowns and control to win a decision.

"i would go with jennifer my jennifer maya by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Daniel Levi picks Jennifer Maia. He notes that Maia is in the best spot of her career, coming off a first-round finish of Joanne Calderwood and a win over Roxanne Modafferi, and even won a round against Valentina Shevchenko. He questions whether Maia will be motivated after the title loss. He also notes that Jessica Eye has looked unmotivated in recent losses and is a hot-and-cold fighter. He thinks Maia is stronger but acknowledges Eye is capable of surprising.

"i'ma go with jennifer maya"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 2, 2021 (8 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Jacob also picks Maia, citing her shoot boxing background and precise hands. He notes Eye is experienced but inconsistent. He is hesitant to put Maia in his lineup due to Eye's potential to surprise, but he leans Maia. He mentions he would wait to see what Dan thinks.

"i like jennifer maya like like i mentioned before she is amaya she does she is very good on the ground"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jessica Eye

I'm taking Jessica Eye at plus money. The line on Maia is too high due to recency bias from her performance against Valentina. Maia is not a takedown artist; she's a striker. Eye has good volume and pressure, as seen in her wins over Viviane Araujo and Catlin Chookagian. I think this fight should be a pick'em, and Eye has value. I expect a close decision, possibly a split, and I'm on Eye.

Eye by decision
"i'm taking the value here i'm taking jessica i plus 165 is too nice of a line to pass up on a fight that should be closer to -115 minus 110 this should be a pick and fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jennifer Maia

Paul picks Maia, noting Eye's recent poor performances and weight miss. He thinks Maia's grappling and pressure will be key. He expects Maia to win by decision.

"i would think jennifer maya as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2021 (fight day)
Jennifer Maia

The Guru picks Maia by 30-27 unanimous decision, but calls the fight excruciatingly boring. He expects Eye to try boxing combinations, while Maia will push her against the cage, similar to how Maia did against Valentina Shevchenko. Maia will stall against the cage with knees, body shots, foot stomps, and occasional takedowns, winning every round in a dull affair.

"jennifer meyer gets this one done by excruciatingly [__] boring and atrocious 30-27 unanimous decision"
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Valentina Shevchenko 0 62 of 119 52% 249 of 317 5 of 6 83% 0 0 9:34
Jennifer Maia 0 36 of 88 40% 94 of 152 1 of 2 50% 0 0 7:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Valentina Shevchenko 0 4 of 9 44% 47 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:29
Jennifer Maia 0 1 of 6 16% 17 of 25 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Valentina Shevchenko 0 3 of 5 60% 41 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Jennifer Maia 0 7 of 9 77% 29 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:33
3 Valentina Shevchenko 0 8 of 22 36% 30 of 44 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jennifer Maia 0 5 of 19 26% 14 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:24
4 Valentina Shevchenko 0 12 of 22 54% 68 of 82 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:15
Jennifer Maia 0 5 of 23 21% 6 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Valentina Shevchenko 0 35 of 61 57% 63 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Jennifer Maia 0 18 of 31 58% 28 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Valentina Shevchenko 62 of 119 52% 46 of 100 13 of 16 3 of 3 50 of 103 10 of 14 2 of 2
Jennifer Maia 36 of 88 40% 22 of 72 10 of 12 4 of 4 23 of 73 11 of 12 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Valentina Shevchenko 4 of 9 44% 3 of 7 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Jennifer Maia 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Valentina Shevchenko 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 7 of 9 77% 3 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 5 of 5 2 of 3
3 Valentina Shevchenko 8 of 22 36% 6 of 18 2 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 19 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 5 of 19 26% 2 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 1 3 of 16 2 of 3 0 of 0
4 Valentina Shevchenko 12 of 22 54% 10 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 5 of 23 21% 4 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Valentina Shevchenko 35 of 61 57% 25 of 51 9 of 9 1 of 1 29 of 53 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jennifer Maia 18 of 31 58% 12 of 23 4 of 6 2 of 2 14 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by third-round knockout. He states she is clearly the better fighter and arguably the women's GOAT behind Nunes. He expects her to finish Maia within the first few rounds.

third round knockout
"i see valentina getting it done by knockout within the first couple rounds there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel picks Shevchenko to win by knockout, dismissing any chance of an upset. He notes Maia has been knocked out before and that Shevchenko is a dominant champion. He expects a finish, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

knockout
"i'll say knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by second or third round KO. He believes she is superior everywhere and will finish Maia, who he views as a lamb brought to slaughter. He recommends betting Shevchenko inside the distance rather than the moneyline.

Shevchenko inside the distance (expected minus 150 to minus 160); fight doesn't go to decision (minus 210)
"I'm going to say second or third round finish for Chev chenko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (50-45). He expects a boring fight where Shevchenko outstrikes Maia on the feet and stuffs her takedowns. He criticizes Maia's competition and believes Shevchenko is the queen of a graveyard division.

"i think shivshenko is going to take her five rounds and win it unanimously 50 45"
WIN vs Joanne Wood
Submission (armbar) R1 4:29 · UFC Fight Night: Brunson vs. Shahbazyan · Aug 01, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 26 of 49 53% 33 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Joanne Wood 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 26 of 49 53% 33 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:11
Joanne Wood 0 20 of 37 54% 31 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 26 of 49 53% 6 of 25 9 of 9 11 of 15 24 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 3
Joanne Wood 20 of 37 54% 16 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 18 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 26 of 49 53% 6 of 25 9 of 9 11 of 15 24 of 45 0 of 1 2 of 3
Joanne Wood 20 of 37 54% 16 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 18 of 35 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 28, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

Big Brady picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) to win by decision. He thinks she is the better overall fighter with higher volume striking and improved ground game. He notes that her striking should be sharp because she was preparing to fight Valentina Shevchenko. However, he expresses caution due to recent poor luck betting on women's MMA fights.

"i do like calderwood in this fight quite a bit i think she's a better fighter overall"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 31, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Joanne Wood

Daniel picks Joanne Wood, citing her higher output and well-roundedness. He notes that she doesn't have to worry about takedown threats from Maia and should outland her with kicks and volume. He expects a decision win.

decision
"i think joanne's probably gonna win as long as she shows up i feel like she's got so much more output than jennifer maya"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 29, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The host picks Joanne Wood, citing her evolution in mixing wrestling with striking, and notes that Jennifer Maia has poor get-up game when taken down, as seen in the Alexis Davis fight. He believes Wood will take Maia down and grind out a decision, despite Maia having a slight edge in pure Muay Thai. He also mentions Wood's training at Syndicate MMA and her motivation for a title shot.

"i am gonna go with jojo to win here um -160 again not a bad price tag"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 26, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Joanne Wood

The host picks Joanne Calderwood (Joanne Wood) but expresses hesitation, noting that neither fighter has beaten elite competition. He believes Calderwood is bigger, stronger, and rangier for the division, and can keep the fight standing where she has a range advantage. He acknowledges the lack of clear evidence but goes with Calderwood due to her physical advantages.

"i'll go with uh joanne caldwood i guess there's really nothing to predict this on i just feel as though joanne calderwood's bigger stronger for the division rangier for the division"
Expert Picks (4)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Big Brady picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by third-round knockout. He states she is clearly the better fighter and arguably the women's GOAT behind Nunes. He expects her to finish Maia within the first few rounds.

third round knockout
"i see valentina getting it done by knockout within the first couple rounds there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

Daniel picks Shevchenko to win by knockout, dismissing any chance of an upset. He notes Maia has been knocked out before and that Shevchenko is a dominant champion. He expects a finish, though he acknowledges a decision is possible.

knockout
"i'll say knockout"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The host picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by second or third round KO. He believes she is superior everywhere and will finish Maia, who he views as a lamb brought to slaughter. He recommends betting Shevchenko inside the distance rather than the moneyline.

Shevchenko inside the distance (expected minus 150 to minus 160); fight doesn't go to decision (minus 210)
"I'm going to say second or third round finish for Chev chenko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Valentina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Valentina Shevchenko to win by unanimous decision (50-45). He expects a boring fight where Shevchenko outstrikes Maia on the feet and stuffs her takedowns. He criticizes Maia's competition and believes Shevchenko is the queen of a graveyard division.

"i think shivshenko is going to take her five rounds and win it unanimously 50 45"