Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing his dangerous striking and takedown defense. He notes Buckley defended nine takedowns against Usman and landed more significant strikes despite control time. He thinks Brady's chin is suspect after his last knockout loss. He believes Buckley can scramble and get back to striking. He trusts Buckley to let his hands go and not accept positions.

Angelo leans towards Buckley because he saw Buckley throw hands against Usman and not get frozen by takedown threats. He thinks Buckley understands the matchup and will try to knock Brady out. However, he doesn't trust it enough to spend actual money.

Big Brady hesitantly picks Joaquin Buckley, reasoning that in a fight that could go either way, he prefers the underdog. He notes Buckley has power and could knock out Brady if he stuffs takedowns. However, he acknowledges Brady could maul Buckley on the ground. Brady predicts Buckley wins by knockout, but with low confidence.

Cody picks Buckley as an underdog, citing his power, takedown defense, and experience against wrestlers like Usman and Covington. He thinks Buckley can stuff takedowns and land a knockout, as Brady's striking and chin are questionable. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money.

Connor picks Brady but hesitantly, agreeing with Zane. He notes Buckley's predictable timing and movement, but his relentless pressure could break Brady if the fight goes long. Connor thinks Brady's wrestling should win in three rounds, but Buckley's confidence and cardio make it interesting. He prefers it as a five-round fight.

Daniel picks Buckley, arguing that Brady is a great hammer but not a great nail, and has wilted when pressured. He believes Buckley's power and unpredictability will lead to a knockout, and that Buckley's takedown defense is underrated. Daniel thinks the Usman fight was an anomaly due to the bright lights.

Brady has a huge grappling edge; Buckley's takedown defense and ground game are weak (Usman held him down easily). Brady's offensive wrestling is good, but his control can be compromised by short legs. However, if Brady keeps it simple and controls Buckley from top position with ground and pound, he should win comfortably. Striking gap is not massive; Brady can hold his own. The only way Buckley wins is a flash KO or major improvements to his takedown defense, which is unlikely.

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Buckley has been on a tear, with four straight wins including a KO over Stephen Thompson and a TKO over Colby Covington. His southpaw stance and power (3.88 SLpM, 36% accuracy) pose problems for Brady, who is coming off a KO loss to Michael Morales. Brady's strength is grappling (3.53 takedowns per round), but Buckley has 72% takedown defense and has shown improved wrestling. Buckley's reach advantage (76" vs 72") helps him land from distance. Expect Buckley to stuff takedowns and land a knockout in the later rounds.

Jacob is confident in Sean Brady, arguing that Brady is a better grappler than Usman and that Buckley looked clueless on the ground against Usman. He believes Brady will outgrapple Buckley and possibly finish him. He notes that Buckley is 4-5 in the UFC when he doesn't record a takedown.

Lucrative James picks Sean Brady because he believes Brady's grappling will be the difference, similar to how Kamaru Usman dominated Buckley. He notes Buckley's poor jiu-jitsu off his back and Brady's superior submission skills. He predicts Brady will submit Buckley via arm triangle, though he acknowledges Buckley's athleticism could make it competitive early. He also mentions Brady's recent knee injury but thinks he will perform.

The host picks Brady by submission, believing his grappling will be too much for Buckley. He notes that Buckley's power is not as dangerous as Morales', and Brady should be able to get takedowns and find dominant positions. He expects a dominant performance and a submission win.

Paul also picks Buckley, citing his improvements against high-level wrestlers and Brady's limited striking and durability. He thinks Buckley's power and takedown defense will be key, and that Brady's path to victory is narrow. Paul expects Buckley to win by knockout.

The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady, citing his high-level grappling and ability to exploit Buckley's wrestling weaknesses. He notes Usman easily held down Buckley, and Brady's takedown timing is excellent. He believes Buckley's forward-jumping style plays into Brady's reactive takedowns. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.

Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.

Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.

Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.

The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.

Angelo picks Buckley because it is a 'what have you done for me lately' sport and Covington looked like a shell of himself in his last fight. He notes Buckley's power, movement, and doggedness, while Covington's pressure and wrestling were absent. He believes if the old Covington shows up he wins, but the recent version gets smoked. He is not sure if he will bet on it.

Big Brady picks Colby Covington to win by decision, going against the grain. He thinks the line is too wide and that Covington can take Buckley down easily, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Buckley has never been past three rounds and has struggled against wrestlers like Abdul Razak Alhassan. He acknowledges Covington's last performance was terrible but attributes it to a broken foot.

Cody picks Colby Covington as a live underdog, citing his elite wrestling, cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He believes Buckley's path to victory relies on a knockout or takedowns, but Covington's takedown defense and pressure will neutralize that. Cody also notes Covington's motivation in a potential retirement fight and the hometown crowd advantage in Florida.

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Covington's confidence is shattered and his style requires constant pressure, which he no longer provides. He notes that Buckley is a powerful puncher who will keep coming forward, and that Covington's wrestling is ineffective off the back foot. Connor sees a high chance of a finish.

Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley to win, citing Buckley's paid dues, knockout power, takedown defense, and get-up game. He notes Buckley's wins over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque as proof he's ready for this step up. Vreeland is not concerned about Buckley's cardio, believing the move to welterweight has improved his conditioning. He acknowledges Colby Covington's relentless pace and takedown attempts but thinks Buckley's athleticism and power will be the difference. Vreeland mentions the odds (-265) are a bit steep for a bet but stands by the pick.

Lucrative James picks Joaquin Buckley to win, citing Buckley's momentum, athleticism, and power versus Colby Covington's decline due to age, inactivity, and poor striking defense. He notes Buckley's recent knockouts over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque, and emphasizes that Covington has been rocked in past fights and is no longer the same fighter. He believes Buckley's volume and dynamic striking will overwhelm Covington, likely leading to a knockout.

Covington is tough to predict at this stage, especially after his flat performance against Leon Edwards. Buckley is expected to showcase some of those issues, but it's hard to have confidence in Buckley at chalk odds. If Covington shows up at 70% of his former self, he could overwhelm Buckley. The official prediction is Buckley by knockout, but Covington could be the value spot odds-wise.

Paul also picks Colby Covington, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He highlights Covington's durability, pressure, and ability to push a pace that Buckley hasn't faced in five rounds. Paul mentions he took late Colby finish props at long odds, seeing a path where Covington weathers early storms and takes over in championship rounds.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, despite being a Colby Covington fan. He cites Buckley's physicality, lateral movement, and body work as key advantages. He notes that Covington is 36, coming off a long layoff, and took the fight on short notice. He believes Buckley's takedown defense and cardio are underrated, and predicts a body shot TKO in round two. He also mentions that Covington's linear style struggles against fighters who move laterally.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.

Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.

Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.

Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.

Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.

The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.

Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.

The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.

Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev, citing his wrestling and grappling ability, as well as his power in his hands. He notes Ruziboev is a much larger fighter and a capable striker, but worries he might abandon his grappling for striking. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley's speed, power, and improved movement, but believes Ruziboev's wrestling could be the difference.

Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round, calling it a shot in the dark. He notes that Buckley has been knocked out multiple times (by Holland, Curtis, etc.) and Ruziboev has a ton of power. However, he admits he still doesn't know much about Ruziboev, who has over 40 fights but mostly first-round finishes. He thinks Ruziboev's power might be the difference, and if he beats Buckley, he will gain hype.

Cody picks Buckley, noting that Ruziboev has a poor record at 170 lbs (7 of 8 losses at that weight) and tends to gas after the first round. He highlights Buckley's speed, cardio advantage, and ability to explode with big shots. Cody believes Buckley can survive an early onslaught and take over in later rounds, especially with the crowd behind him in St. Louis. He also notes that Ruziboev's takedown defense is suspect and Buckley could mix in wrestling.

Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley, noting that Buckley has experience against larger opponents and that Ruziboev's ceiling is likely top 30. He believes Buckley can extend the fight and find his range, and that Ruziboev struggles when he doesn't get an early finish. He also mentions the risk of a letdown spot for Buckley after a big win.

The host picks Buckley to win by knockout in rounds 2 or 3, citing his experience and fight IQ against a less tested opponent. He expects Buckley to mix in grappling and wear down Ruziboev before landing a big shot. He notes Ruziboev's size and reach but questions his weight cut and competition level. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges unknowns about Ruziboev.

Paul leans towards Ruziboev but is hesitant, citing his size and power advantage. He notes that Ruziboev has a 10-fight winning streak with all finishes in the first round, but his record at 170 is poor. Paul worries about the weight cut and cardio, as Ruziboev has not gone past the first round in years. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see how Ruziboev looks at 170. Paul acknowledges Buckley's improvements but thinks Ruziboev could be a 'merer' if he lands early.

Angelo picks Vicente Luque despite admitting he has been a Luque hater. He notes Luque's impressive wrestling against RDA and his overall skills. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley is dangerous and funny but thinks Luque's mix of striking and wrestling will give him the edge.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by second-round knockout. He believes prime Luque would destroy Buckley, but Luque has taken significant damage, suffered a brain bleed, and admitted to being scared to get hit in his last fight. Brady thinks Luque's durability is compromised and Buckley's power will finish him.

Cody likes Luque's volume and pace, believing he can outwork Buckley who tends to fade. He notes Luque's wrestling as a new wrinkle but thinks the path to victory is through pressure and output. He acknowledges the risk of Buckley's power but sees Luque as the better fighter at even money.

Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley at +124, continuing his fade of Vicente Luque. He cites Luque's history of taking massive damage, the brain bleed, and his struggles against southpaws. He believes Buckley's footwork, speed, and southpaw stance will frustrate Luque, and that Luque's chin may be compromised. He acknowledges Luque's power but thinks Buckley can avoid the left hook and win a decision or late finish.

Luque is more skilled and talented than Buckley, with a nasty leg kick that can sap Buckley's power. He may mix in grappling to nullify Buckley's speed and power advantage. Luque's veteran experience and ability to pressure in later rounds should be decisive. Buckley is a power puncher but Luque can implement leg kicks and potentially finish inside two rounds. The minus 115 line is a steal for a fighter of Luque's caliber.

Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Luque's wrestling from the RDA fight and his overall well-rounded game. He thinks Luque can take Buckley down and remove his explosive striking, making him a solid play at even money.

Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.

Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.

Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.

Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.

Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.

Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.

Angelo picks Buckley to win because he has wrestling if needed, better defense, and is faster and more athletic. However, he is wary of betting at -170 since both fighters have been knocked out recently. He suggests waiting for props, possibly 'does not go the distance' if the line is good.

Big Brady picks André Fialho as the underdog to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round. He notes both fighters have power and poor durability, but he likes Fialho's early-round danger. He also mentions Buckley is moving down to welterweight after five years, which could affect his performance. He expects a stand-up war and believes Fialho lands the big shot first.

Cody believes Buckley's power and athleticism will be too much for Fialho, who has questionable durability and cardio. He expects Buckley to knock Fialho out, possibly early. He notes Buckley's move to welterweight is a positive and that Fialho's striking defense is lacking.

Connor also picks Buckley, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights that Fialho's indecision and poor chin are major liabilities, and that Buckley's creative striking will cause problems. He notes that Fialho has moments of being a good fighter but is inconsistent, and that Buckley's ability to mix up his attacks will keep Fialho guessing. He also expresses doubt about Buckley's move to welterweight but thinks Fialho is not the fighter to exploit it.

Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley but notes he missed the better line. He believes Buckley is faster, has better volume, and that 170 lbs is the right weight class for him. He worries about Buckley's tendency to engage in pocket exchanges, where Fialho's power could be dangerous, but thinks if Buckley fights smart on the outside, he can out-volume Fialho. He calls it a 'pure pick' and says he's not interested in betting at -225.

The host picks Joaquin Buckley, expecting a knockout as Fialho fades in later rounds. He notes Buckley's technical boxing and high guard should allow him to crash the pocket and land cleaner punches. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop and predicts a round three TKO.

Paul agrees, noting that Buckley's move to welterweight is beneficial and that Fialho's durability is a concern. He mentions that Buckley can be methodical and that the fight could end early. He also likes the under on significant strikes for Buckley.

The MMA Guru sides with Joaquin Buckley, despite praising Fialho's activity. He worries about Fialho's chin and notes he took damage in recent fights without enough time to improve. He believes Buckley is more elusive and has a better chin, and that Fialho lacks one-shot KO power. He expects Buckley to win, possibly by KO, but acknowledges it could go either way if there's a finish.