Career Averages - Chris Curtis
Career Averages - Joaquin Buckley
Chris Curtis
Joaquin Buckley
Chris Curtis - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 12 of 31 | 38% | 57 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 83 of 102 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 12:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 16 of 21 | 76% | 49 of 65 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 20 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 25 of 26 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 | |
| 3 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 25 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 11 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 4:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 12 of 31 | 38% | 6 of 25 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 20 of 28 | 71% | 13 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 17 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 16 of 21 | 76% | 13 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 6 of 13 | 46% | 4 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Chris Curtis | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Myktybek Orolbai | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.
Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.
Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.
Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.
James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.
The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.
Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.
The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.
Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 0 | 59 of 178 | 33% | 63 of 185 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 64 of 155 | 41% | 71 of 162 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:34 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 8 of 32 | 25% | 11 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 0 | 17 of 58 | 29% | 19 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 23 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:14 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 0 | 21 of 72 | 29% | 22 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 35 of 71 | 49% | 37 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Griffin | 59 of 178 | 33% | 38 of 147 | 14 of 21 | 7 of 10 | 58 of 175 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 64 of 155 | 41% | 44 of 132 | 18 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 61 of 149 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Griffin | 21 of 48 | 43% | 14 of 38 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 20 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 8 of 32 | 25% | 5 of 29 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Griffin | 17 of 58 | 29% | 12 of 51 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 21 of 52 | 40% | 15 of 46 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Griffin | 21 of 72 | 29% | 12 of 58 | 8 of 12 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 71 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 35 of 71 | 49% | 24 of 57 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 68 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-310); Griffin (+250)
Round 1
One win away from getting his .500 UFC record back, Griffin (20-11, 8-9 UFC) will be staring across the cage from Curtis (31-12, 1 NC; 5-4, 1 NC UFC). There are no more rules in MMA, as Curtis was able two weeks ago to violate one of the most seemingly inviolable rules of corner interference by
outright attacking his defeated fighter’s opponent
without so much as a whimper from the Nevada State Athletic Commission. “The Action Man” was so starved for action that he recently crashed Luis Hernandez’ victory party at Tuff-N-Uff 145, helping teammate Sean Strickland put hands on Hernandez. It’s time for these welterweights to bang it out with referee Justin Brown watching on. They don’t touch gloves.
Griffin springs after Curtis, pawing out short left hands that do not land. This continues for about 30 seconds, until “Pain” releases a painful calf kick. Curtis checks the second, and he eats a right hand down the pipe when countered. Curtis lunges with a single left hand, pulling back to reset. He stands still waiting for Griffin to come to him, suddenly releasing a pair of punches. Griffin launches a low kick, clacking square into Curtis’ cup loudly. The crowd unleashes boos, possibly doubting he took the illegal blow, but the replay confirms the contact. Brown gives Curtis time to recover, and after a minute, he is good to go. Griffin pump-fakes several times with his legs, but no one is really actually engaging. Curtis steps in to attack, and he complains to Brown that he was headbutted.
Brown tells him to fight on, blood flowing from the wound on Curtis’ head, and Curtis is fired up. He rushes at Griffin hurling punches, his vision partially obscured from the leaking head wound. He strings three punches together, and Griffin snaps his head back and makes Curtis smile. Curtis stalks after Griffin, enjoying himself now, and he takes a left hand so he can pound Griffin in the stomach and temple. Griffin sticks him with a right hand, getting on his bike to move and stay off the gunnery range. Curtis backs him to the wall, and Griffin springboards to get out. Curtis pins him down with a few punches, and he is grappled by “Pain.” Griffin pushes him to the fencing, separating with seconds left and taking a knee to the jaw. Curtis lashes out, grinning like a banshee, but nothing cleanly connects as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Round 2
The cut across Curtis’ eyebrow is sealed between rounds, but it is deep and wide. The two chatter at one another while trading hands, chasing one another around with momentum shifts. Curtis drills Griffin with a right hook, and Griffin has to hurry to get away before taking further damage. Griffin lets loose with a head kick that stuns Curtis, and as he tries to finish the job, Curtis nails him with a counter to put Griffin down. Griffin jumps back up, and Curtis is on him, swinging harder and with meaner intentions. The right hand from “The Action Man” splits a cut on the side of Griffin’s left eye, and he swings at the same spot when lunging. Griffin strafes to the side and looses a few punches to keep Curtis honest. Curtis slips as he engages, but is no worse for wear.
Curtis misses a massive uppercut by a matter of inches, and he continues to march after the older fighter. Curtis misses on a body kick, and he lands to put a right hand in Griffin’s face. Griffin kicks Curtis in the face, and Curtis completely ignores it but tells Brown that Griffin headbutted him again. The clinch results in a stalemate, and the spoiled fans in the building start booing quickly. The fighters trade knees when tied up before breaking apart, where Griffin gets off a one-two on the break. Curtis goes right after him, headhunting all the while, and Griffin tags him with a right. A second nearly stumbles Curtis, with his own strikes drawing no reaction from “Pain.” Griffin steps in to drive a shovel right hand to the torso, and Curtis grimaces and fires back with a knee. He then activates a reaching combination of punches, with Curtis knocking Griffin back and off the wall. They clinch up again, and Curtis catches him on the way out with a left hand. They hurl fists at one another until the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Round 3
Curtis introduces himself with a pair of tight jabs, using them to break up the big swings from the advancing Griffin. Griffin fires right back, ending a salvo with a head kick that rebounds off the raised guard. Curtis walks his man down, and Griffin tags him a few times on the way in. Curtis ducks face-first into a right hand, and he takes a solid body kick that slips beneath his guard. He walks Griffin down to stab him in the torso with a long punch, and he keeps swinging until Griffin knocks him back with a right hand. The head movement from Curtis keeps him safe as he tries to remain in the pocket with his opponent, putting short combos together to decent effect. Griffin looses a few body shots and a head kick, and Curtis retaliates with similar punches.
When Curtis ducks again, Griffin times a head kick, but it is the body shot of Curtis that is doing some damage. Griffin backpedals, sucking wind a little, and Curtis lays into him with unanswered strikes. Griffin ducks and counters one with a right hand over the top, and he tries to answer Curtis back with his firepower. The short hooks do not have the same effect as Curtis’ wide swings, but they are effective at keeping Curtis from walking over him. Curtis lands with a hard right, and he finds his home with a left before Griffin tries to tie him up. Griffin marches forward, and Curtis trips him to the mat and smiles at him from ear-to-ear. It takes Griffin a moment to get up, and the two proceed to let one another have it. Knees, head kicks and plenty of fists fly as they ride out the remainder of the clock waging battle. Time expires, and they leave this in the hands of the judges.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Max Griffin via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Chris Curtis but expresses concern about his weight cut to welterweight at 37 years old, especially after a recent knockout. He thinks Curtis is the cleaner striker with good takedown defense, but worries about his chin durability after cutting weight. He notes that if the fight is actually at 185, he would be more confident and would bet on Curtis.
Big Brady likes Chris Curtis as the better striker with higher volume and power. He notes Curtis has elite takedown defense and the fight will stay standing. He mentions Curtis went toe-to-toe with Roman Kopylov. He picks Curtis by decision but warns the line is wide and judges could be an issue.
The host is high on Curtis moving down to 170 lbs, where he spent most of his career before the UFC. He thinks this will be a great matchup for Curtis to showcase his danger at welterweight and expects him to finish Griffin in the second or third round. The pick is based on Curtis's experience at the weight and his finishing ability.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, noting he is a 3-to-1 favorite. He criticizes Max Griffin's split decision win over Tim Means and believes Curtis would finish Means. He highlights Curtis' experience (12 more pro fights) and his competitive performances against Brendan Allen and Roman Kopylov. He expects Curtis to keep the fight standing, use body shots, and finish Griffin by TKO in the second or third round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 0 | 142 of 261 | 54% | 146 of 265 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 130 of 307 | 42% | 133 of 310 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 42 of 83 | 50% | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 48 of 110 | 43% | 48 of 110 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 58 of 104 | 55% | 59 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 38 of 96 | 39% | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 0 | 42 of 74 | 56% | 45 of 77 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 44 of 101 | 43% | 47 of 104 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Roman Kopylov | 142 of 261 | 54% | 107 of 204 | 30 of 52 | 5 of 5 | 142 of 261 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 130 of 307 | 42% | 91 of 266 | 14 of 16 | 25 of 25 | 124 of 300 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Roman Kopylov | 42 of 83 | 50% | 32 of 62 | 8 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 42 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 48 of 110 | 43% | 33 of 93 | 6 of 8 | 9 of 9 | 46 of 108 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Roman Kopylov | 58 of 104 | 55% | 42 of 78 | 14 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 58 of 104 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 38 of 96 | 39% | 25 of 83 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 10 | 38 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Roman Kopylov | 42 of 74 | 56% | 33 of 64 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 74 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 44 of 101 | 43% | 33 of 90 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 40 of 96 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Fresh off a close five-rounder against rival Brendan Allen, Curtis (31-11, 1 NC; 5-3, 1 NC UFC) takes a step down in competition against Russian striker Kopylov (13-3, 5-3 UFC). While Kopylov has not been ranked, he is as dangerous as any, with knockouts accounting for four of his five triumphs in the Octagon. Keeping a lid on the middleweights will be referee Mark Smith, who clocks the fighters in as they opt for a glove touch. Curtis fights behind a jab, while Kopylov unleashes the first of likely many body kicks. Curtis crowds him with his hands, hoping to take some of those kicks away, but Kopylov chambers and fires off another. Kopylov kicks low and jabs high, and he circles when Curtis backs him up. Kopylov kicks low and is met with a body kick, and Curtis paws out three jabs in rapid succession. Kopylov scores a one-two, and jabs fly from both sides. Curtis kicks the body and gets his bell rung with a right hand, and the snapping jab that follows from Kopylov further stings him. Curtis shakes it off but absorbs another power jab, and he wipes his hands off to reset. Curtis prods out his own effective jab, doubling and tripling up on when he chooses. Curtis keeps his guard up after throwing, but Kopylov still manages to split it with a flurry. Kopylov pounds the front leg with a kick, and he fires off a one-two down the pipe. Curtis walks through it and hand-fights to get his way in. Kopylov flicks out numerous jabs, and Curtis gets tired of dealing with them and crashing forward with an uppercut. Curtis scores a right hand, and Kopylov grabs a leg and lets it go to score a body shot. Kopylov goes for another takedown, and bails on it before Curtis can properly defend. Kopylov kicks the body and dings “The Action Man” with a counter, but Curtis’ left hand lands flush as well. Curtis snaps the head back with an uppercut, reddening the Russian’s nose and forcing him to backpedal. Curtis walks him down behind a series of jabs, and he is ready to block the high kick he expects is coming. Curtis partially deflects a leg kick and puts out a left hand to counter another, and he mixes up jabs and kicks to keep Kopylov guessing. Kopylov strings together four punches that all bounce off the raised guard, and he takes a deep breath and loses his mouthpiece. Before Curtis can reach him, the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Kopylov
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, with volume striking on both sides. Curtis digs a few to the body when not jabbing up high, and he zips a right hand over the top after eating a left hook from the Russian. Curtis slams another right to the midsection, and he keeps walking Kopylov down and scoring cleanly. A clean left hand from Curtis shreds open a cut on Kopylov’s right eyebrow, and blood pours from it as soon as it opens. Curtis is in his groove, jabbing and setting up strikes after the jabs. The damage mounts fast from Curtis, who has also bloodied up Kopylov’s nose. Curtis does not take his foot off the gas, proving with jab after jab. Kopylov swings back with a looping right hand, but it ricochets down to Curtis’ cup. This is fortuitous for Kopylov, but Curtis takes just a few seconds to recover after Smith calls time. Curtis stays in Kopylov’s face, walking through body kicks and jabs so he can score his own strikes. Curtis dips and tags Kopylov with a right hand, and after an exchange, Kopylov reaches out with a right hand and pokes Curtis square in the eye. Curtis turns away and asks for a towel to wipe his eye out, trying to hurry so he does not let Kopylov have time to catch his breath. Smith warns the Russian for his second foul, and they touch gloves. Curtis puts his jab in Kopylov’s face time and again, ignoring a calf kick so he can pepper Kopylov with right hands. Kopylov winds up and cracks Curtis with a left hand that stuns “The Action Man,” and Curtis momentarily has to stop and recover. He is quick back to his all-volume approach, and he puts a knuckle in Kopylov’s eye to make him blink it out. Curtis flashes his jabs, and his guard is high and effective but Kopylov keeps throwing back valiantly. Curtis turns and rolls with most of the worst of them, and he puts three punches on the chin. Kopylov returns fire with a few jabs and a body kick, and he connects hard with a left hand that would have felled lesser fighters. The second stanza comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Round 3
There is a double glove touch to commence the final frame, and unsurprisingly the middleweights want to hit one another in the face furiously and frequently. Kopylov keeps his range with a body kick, and he finds home with an uppercut as Curtis is chasing him. Curtis’ guard is up, but Kopylov is still connecting on him at least in part. Curtis doubles his jab up, and Kopylov puts more mustard behind his strikes. Curtis brings up an uppercut, and Kopylov steels himself and winds up with a left hand that staggers “The Action Man.” Kopylov blasts the body and works the lead leg, and Curtis shakes his head but may be fading. Curtis jabs his way into range, and he kicks Kopylov in the ribs and uppercuts him as well. Kopylov pins a one-two on the chin, and blood sprays from his mouth, nose and cut when he takes strikes. Kopylov is warned for outstretched fingers, and he gives Curtis the business with another uppercut to the body. When Curtis advances, Kopylov times a double to plant the veteran on his back. Curtis scrambles like a madman to get to his knees and wall-walk upright, and Kopylov wrenches him back down. Curtis recovers again, takes a partial head kick and lays into Kopylov. The Russian lets his fists fly, knocking Curtis’ head around, and somehow Curtis is not only still in the fight but firing back with a vengeance. Kopylov backs off, fatigue setting in hard, and he takes a deep breath and shoots for a takedown. Kopylov sells out for the single, and Curtis defends with the guillotine choke and pushes off with seconds to spare. Putting everything behind their final blows, they swing it out for one bit flurry.
Kopylov looses a head kick at the tail end of the match and walks away, stumbling Curtis and putting him down to the ground. Smith looks closely at Curtis and decides to wave the fight off with about a second to go
, and Curtis is incensed at the stoppage as Kopylov walked off and was not laying into him with finalizing blows. It is a bitter pill to swallow for “The Action Man,” who firmly believes Smith should not have intervened and that it should have gone to the scorecards, where he had a chance at winning. The complaints are not heard, as the referee is the sole arbiter of the bout and the fight is over. Kopylov has just earned the biggest win of his career, doing it over an iron-chinned competitor that had only been knocked out once.
The Official Result
Roman Kopylov def. Chris Curtis R3 4:59 via TKO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Roman Kopylov, stating he is the better striker in a matchup that will likely stay on the feet. He acknowledges Chris Curtis is the more well-rounded fighter but notes Curtis rarely uses his wrestling. He expects Kopylov's kickboxing to outpoint Curtis, leading to a decision win. He mentions the odds have widened from -180 to -245.
Big Brady expects a striker's delight with both guys likely not looking for takedowns. He notes Kopylov has more tools on the feet, including kicks, volume, and power. He points out Curtis is knockout-reliant and not a minute-winner, while Kopylov is durable with a big head. He predicts Kopylov wins by decision, as both are durable and have only one knockout loss combined.
Cody is all in on Curtis as a +210 underdog, citing Kopylov's cardio issues and Curtis's experience and body work. He expects Kopylov to fade in rounds 2-3, allowing Curtis to take over. He also dismisses the 'spygate' drama as gamesmanship.
Connor picks Kopylov because Curtis is an emotional fighter who struggles when frustrated, and Kopylov is a momentum builder who can take over as the fight goes on. Curtis's counter-punching style and predictable footwork make him vulnerable to Kopylov's kicking game and pressure. While Curtis has a path to victory by pressuring and leading, Connor doubts he will execute it consistently. Kopylov's ability to build momentum and his improved game after early UFC struggles are key factors.
Daniel believes Kopylov has the tools to keep Curtis at distance with jabs and body kicks, but worries about Kopylov's cardio in later rounds. He notes Curtis is a durable southpaw pocket boxer with elite takedown defense. He thinks Kopylov can win a decision if he avoids pocket exchanges, but it could get sketchy late. He picks Kopylov but is concerned about the -250 price.
Lucrative James confidently picks Roman Kopylov, stating he has all the tools to win. He highlights Kopylov's kicking, footwork, and potential grappling advantage, noting that Chris Curtis refuses to wrestle. He believes the blueprint to beat Curtis is the Jack Hermansson game plan, which Kopylov can replicate. He warns that Curtis is a better boxer and can crack, but outside of a big shot, he sees Kopylov winning clearly.
Kopylov is a superior striker and should be able to touch up Curtis, who is at a disadvantage fighting at middleweight. However, Kopylov's cardio can falter in deep water, which Curtis could exploit. Still, Kopylov has enough power to be the second person to finish Curtis by knockout in 43 professional fights.
Paul initially picked Kopylov but flipped to Curtis after Cody's argument. He agrees that Kopylov's wrestling won't be effective and that Curtis has cardio and volume advantages. He notes the line is too high on Kopylov.
The Guru confidently picks Kopylov, calling Curtis a 'crybaby' and criticizing his basic style. He believes Kopylov's striking versatility (head, body, leg kicks) will outclass Curtis's boxing-heavy approach. He notes Curtis's age (37), recent leg injury, and the spy controversy as signs of weakness. He expects a striking match where Kopylov sets patterns and breaks Curtis down.
Zane also picks Kopylov, noting that Curtis is a smart fighter but often gets in his own head. Kopylov is weak going backwards, but Curtis is weak going forward and cutting off the cage. Zane envisions a neutral fight where both struggle to impose their game, but Kopylov's ability to build momentum and Curtis's tendency to be inactive give Kopylov the edge. Zane does not trust Curtis to fight smart consistently.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 0 | 112 of 222 | 50% | 128 of 242 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 0 | 0 | 6:05 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 124 of 241 | 51% | 141 of 261 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 22 of 40 | 55% | 24 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:17 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 13 of 41 | 31% | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 29 of 66 | 43% | 29 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 46 of 80 | 57% | 46 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 31 of 52 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:03 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 23 of 45 | 51% | 23 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 28 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 5 | Brendan Allen | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 16 of 38 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 21 of 31 | 67% | 35 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 1:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendan Allen | 112 of 222 | 50% | 72 of 172 | 25 of 34 | 15 of 16 | 108 of 214 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 124 of 241 | 51% | 96 of 205 | 25 of 33 | 3 of 3 | 122 of 237 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Brendan Allen | 22 of 40 | 55% | 12 of 26 | 7 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 22 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 13 of 41 | 31% | 8 of 34 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Brendan Allen | 29 of 66 | 43% | 20 of 55 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 46 of 80 | 57% | 36 of 67 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 46 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Brendan Allen | 23 of 42 | 54% | 14 of 31 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 23 of 45 | 51% | 18 of 38 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Brendan Allen | 25 of 39 | 64% | 16 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 21 of 44 | 47% | 17 of 39 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Brendan Allen | 13 of 35 | 37% | 10 of 30 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 31 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 21 of 31 | 67% | 17 of 27 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 20 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Curtis because he already knocked out Brendan Allen in under two minutes in their first fight. He believes Allen's recent win streak is impressive but that he can only win by getting the fight to the ground, which is very difficult against Curtis's takedown defense. Angelo also notes that Curtis on short notice may be better because he doesn't overthink. He mentions that underdogs have won 63% of main events in 2024 and expects that trend to continue.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, noting that he doesn't understand why Allen is a 2-to-1 favorite. He highlights Curtis's elite takedown defense, durability, and cardio, and believes the fight will take place on the feet, where Curtis is more defensively sound and durable. He thinks Allen is hitable and has been knocked out before, and predicts Curtis will find Allen's chin over 25 minutes and win by third-round knockout.
Cody agrees with Paul, noting that Allen's wins have come against one-dimensional grapplers, while Curtis is a sprawl-and-brawl boxer who works the body and legs. He points out that Curtis has looked midling lately but still has the style to beat Allen. Cody also highlights that Curtis knows Allen from sparring and took the first fight on short notice, and that the five-round fight favors Curtis's power and cardio. He expects Curtis to win by TKO again.
Daniel Vreeland picks Brendan Allen but is hesitant due to Allen's ego and past knockout loss to Curtis. He notes Allen has improved since their first fight, with a six-fight win streak and better grappling as a black belt. However, he worries Allen might get distracted by Sean Strickland's trash talk and engage in pocket exchanges where Curtis excels. Vreeland believes Allen has more paths to victory if he fights smart, using kicks and distance to avoid brawling, and can win by volume or submission if he gets top control.
Curtis has the striking advantage and an iron chin. Allen's wrestling isn't good enough to get Curtis down consistently. In the pocket, Curtis will land the bigger shots and likely knock Allen out again, as he did in their first fight. The line is too wide for Allen.
Paul thinks Chris Curtis is a bad matchup for Brendan Allen again. He notes Allen has improved but Curtis is a brick wall with solid boxing, body work, and five-round cardio. Paul believes Curtis's sprawl-and-brawl style will stifle Allen's takedowns and that Curtis will eventually land his power, likely by TKO. He also mentions Curtis took the fight on short notice last time and still won, and that the five-round distance favors Curtis's pressure.
The host provides a detailed breakdown, noting Allen was doing well in the first fight before getting caught. He highlights Allen's improved offensive grappling (submitting Paul Craig, holding his own against Jacob Malkoun) and striking. He sees Curtis regressing, losing power, and taking the fight on short notice. He predicts Allen will win by submission in the first round via rear-naked choke, using body kicks to set up takedowns and chain wrestling to take Curtis' back.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 140 of 258 | 54% | 144 of 262 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 122 of 243 | 50% | 124 of 245 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 23 of 48 | 47% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 18 of 46 | 39% | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 51 of 99 | 51% | 51 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 45 of 85 | 52% | 45 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 66 of 111 | 59% | 70 of 115 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 0 | 59 of 112 | 52% | 61 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 140 of 258 | 54% | 101 of 210 | 35 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 116 of 230 | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 122 of 243 | 50% | 77 of 189 | 33 of 42 | 12 of 12 | 105 of 218 | 17 of 25 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 23 of 48 | 47% | 15 of 36 | 5 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 18 of 46 | 39% | 8 of 35 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 51 of 99 | 51% | 40 of 85 | 10 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 47 of 95 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 45 of 85 | 52% | 28 of 64 | 14 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 45 of 84 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Curtis | 66 of 111 | 59% | 46 of 89 | 20 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 87 | 20 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
| Marc-André Barriault | 59 of 112 | 52% | 41 of 90 | 15 of 19 | 3 of 3 | 42 of 88 | 17 of 24 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans Barriault, citing his forward pressure, toughness, and Canadian home advantage. He worries that Curtis's counter-striking style may not impress judges if he's backing up. He notes Barriault must avoid Curtis's big hook. He has placed a quarter unit on Barriault at plus 150 and may add more if the line moves.
Big Brady picks Barriault as a dog, saying the odds make no sense. He notes Curtis is a slow starter who gets outlanded in most fights, while Barriault has high volume and is fighting in Canada. He expects a close fight that goes to decision, with Canadian judges potentially favoring Barriault. He doubts either fighter gets a knockout.
Cody picks Curtis due to his higher level of competition and power advantage. He notes Curtis is a slow starter but has nasty power and volume. He expects a third-round TKO or decision win for Curtis.
Vreeland picks Barriault as a home dog, noting his grappling and durability. He sees the fight as even but likes the plus money on Barriault. Vreeland acknowledges Barriault's cardio and durability as strengths, but doesn't elaborate on a specific path to victory beyond the value.
Daniel Vreeland picks Marc-André Barriault as a live dog. He notes that Curtis often needs a knockout to win, otherwise he loses decisions. Barriault is durable, has nasty uppercuts and elbows in the clinch, and can crack. Vreeland expects Barriault to win by decision if he survives Curtis's early power.
Fox picks Curtis, believing he is the right style to beat Barriault. He notes that Barriault's best weapons are cardio and durability, but Curtis doesn't overextend and stays within himself. Fox points to Curtis's defensive grappling against opponents like Brendan Allen and Nassourdine Imavov as evidence he can handle Barriault's grappling. He thinks Barriault gets hit a lot and isn't overly sharp on the feet, so Curtis should win if he doesn't get drawn into prolonged exchanges.
This fight is not discussed in the transcript. The host does not mention Curtis vs Barriault.
I'm going with Barriault as an underdog. He is active, high pressure, high pace, and has great cardio. He can stick at distance, utilize kicks, and mix in the clinch. Curtis is reliant on a knockout to win, but Barriault's style should be tough for Curtis to overcome. I think Barriault puts together a better overall body of work and wins by decision.
Paul picks Curtis by KO, citing his power advantage and Barriault's chinny history. He thinks Curtis will land a big shot after a slow start, possibly in round 2 or 3. He notes Barriault's cardio but believes Curtis's power is the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis, citing his body work and pressure. He notes Barriault's tendency to get overwhelmed by volume and gassing, and believes Curtis's body shots will be key. He mentions Curtis's power advantage and the motivation from training with Sean Strickland. He predicts a TKO via body shots in round two or three.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 57 of 84 | 67% | 59 of 86 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:22 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 29 of 36 | 80% | 31 of 38 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 20 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 0 | 28 of 48 | 58% | 28 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nassourdine Imavov | 57 of 84 | 67% | 27 of 48 | 8 of 12 | 22 of 24 | 54 of 80 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 26 of 61 | 42% | 4 of 28 | 8 of 18 | 14 of 15 | 26 of 60 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nassourdine Imavov | 29 of 36 | 80% | 11 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 14 | 28 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 15 of 32 | 46% | 1 of 12 | 5 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Nassourdine Imavov | 28 of 48 | 58% | 16 of 32 | 4 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 26 of 45 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 11 of 29 | 37% | 3 of 16 | 3 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 11 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Nassourdine Imavov, but with hesitation. He notes that Chris Curtis is a great counter-striker but often backs up, which could lead to a decision loss. He believes Imavov's size and forward pressure will earn him a close decision. However, he admits he has never picked a Chris Curtis fight correctly, so he is fading his own pick.
Big Brady leans towards Imavov because Chris Curtis is a slow starter who often loses the first round. He notes that both fighters are durable with only one KO loss combined, so the fight likely goes to decision. Imavov's early activity should win him the first round, and the later rounds will be close. He picks Imavov by decision.
Cody picks Imavov, arguing that Curtis has taken too much damage recently (319 significant strikes in 4 fights) and is fighting too frequently. He notes that Curtis' style has reverted to a Philly shell, and he struggles against rangy fighters who stay on the outside. Imavov has speed, youth, and a long jab, and can fight at range. He expects Imavov to stay on the outside and pick Curtis apart.
Connor agrees with Zane and picks Chris Curtis, though he is hesitant. He likes the way Curtis fights, describing him as a systematic pocket boxer with great hands and defense. Connor worries that Imavov could frustrate Curtis in short bursts, but notes that it's a three-round fight, so two rounds of Imavov's bursts might be enough. He ultimately sides with Curtis because he is a better fighter and more capable of closing doors when momentum shifts.
Daniel Levi picks Chris Curtis, agreeing with the co-host that Imavov does not have the volume or gas tank to implement the blueprint to beat Curtis. He notes that Curtis has excellent boxing, takedown defense, and body shots that can sap Imavov's cardio. He points out that Imavov has historically low output and has faded in fights, while Curtis is a dangerous counter-puncher. He believes the line offers value on Curtis.
James picks Imavov to win by 29-28 decision. He thinks Imavov's range control and lead leg work will be key, and that Curtis struggles with fighters who don't stand in the pocket. He expects Imavov to win rounds one and two, with Curtis possibly taking round three. James notes Curtis is a good counter-striker but may take time to find his timing. He suggests live betting Curtis after round one if he loses it, as Curtis will likely be a bigger underdog then.
Imavov's distance striking and kicking game should keep Curtis at range, frustrating his pocket boxing. Curtis has a significant size disadvantage (5-inch height difference) and may struggle to close distance. However, Curtis has KO power and could turn the fight if he drags Imavov into exchanges. Low confidence due to Curtis's finishing ability.
Paul leans toward Imavov, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes that Curtis struggles to get into the pocket against fighters who stay at range, as seen in the Hermansson fight. The big cage in Vancouver will give Imavov room to move. However, Paul admits he cannot bet against Curtis with his own money because he likes him as a fighter.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis as an underdog, noting Imavov slows down in fights and has cardio issues. He believes Curtis has great takedown defense and can stop Imavov's takedowns, making Imavov worry. He also mentions Curtis trains with Sean Strickland, who recently beat Imavov. He predicts Curtis wins by decision, possibly with a third-round TKO.
Zane picks Chris Curtis despite acknowledging that Imavov has the stylistic advantages to frustrate Curtis like Jack Hermansson did. He notes that Imavov is tall, rangy, and faster than Hermansson, but lacks consistency and tends to gas. Zane trusts Curtis's ability to hang around and snatch momentum if Imavov loses a step, and he prefers Curtis's boxing and pocket fighting. He admits it's a bad style matchup but thinks Curtis is the better fighter.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 70 of 201 | 34% | 80 of 216 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 83 of 188 | 44% | 88 of 195 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 30 of 64 | 46% | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 20 of 65 | 30% | 26 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 23 of 56 | 41% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:55 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 0 | 37 of 88 | 42% | 41 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 30 of 68 | 44% | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kelvin Gastelum | 70 of 201 | 34% | 44 of 164 | 21 of 30 | 5 of 7 | 63 of 193 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 83 of 188 | 44% | 63 of 161 | 5 of 8 | 15 of 19 | 76 of 172 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 10 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kelvin Gastelum | 13 of 48 | 27% | 8 of 40 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 13 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 30 of 64 | 46% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 13 | 30 of 64 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kelvin Gastelum | 20 of 65 | 30% | 11 of 51 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 62 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 23 of 56 | 41% | 20 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 44 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 10 | |
| 3 | Kelvin Gastelum | 37 of 88 | 42% | 25 of 73 | 11 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 32 of 83 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Chris Curtis | 30 of 68 | 44% | 23 of 59 | 4 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 27 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Chris Curtis and has a moneyline bet on him. He notes that Kelvin Gastelum is a waste of talent with poor work ethic, while Chris Curtis is a clean boxer with solid takedown defense and power. He believes Curtis will win the striking exchanges and defend takedowns. He is confident because Gastelum hasn't shown his best day in years.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as the underdog, expecting a close decision. He notes both fighters are durable and have power, but he trusts Curtis's momentum over Gastelum's recent skid. He predicts a split decision and mentions the line has flipped to Gastelum as favorite, making Curtis the dog. He is not confident due to potential judging issues.
Cody agrees with Paul on Curtis. He highlights Curtis' takedown defense and notes that Gastelum's wrestling hasn't been effective recently. Cody likes Curtis by decision at +240 as his favorite bet on the card. He points out that Curtis doesn't have much jiu-jitsu, so a submission is unlikely, but a decision is probable. Cody also mentions Gastelum's staph infection and dental issues as potential factors.
Connor agrees with Zane, picking Chris Curtis. He emphasizes that Curtis is a better counter puncher and that Gastelum is too hittable. Connor also mentions that Curtis has a better chance of landing clean shots that judges will notice, even if they don't hurt Gastelum.
Jacob is locked and loaded on Chris Curtis, calling him a lock. He emphasizes that everyone who engages with Curtis gets knocked out because of his ability to read rhythm and find counter shots. He notes that Gastelum leaves himself open with low hands and gets dropped often. He believes Curtis can knock him out or win a decision.
Gastelum has been on a tough skid but is only 31 and now training with Fight Ready, known for great game plans. He has underrated wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and his durability should hold up against Curtis's power. Curtis is experienced but was out-gamed by Jack Hermansson's range. I think Gastelum's diversity and Fight Ready's plan lead to a decision win, though ring rust is a concern.
Paul picks Curtis, citing his superior volume, cardio, and reach advantage. He notes Curtis has excellent takedown defense and has fought bigger middleweights. Paul criticizes Gastelum's recent low output and believes Curtis will outwork him. He expects a 15-minute standup fight and likes Curtis by decision at plus money. Paul also mentions Curtis' experience sparring with Sean Strickland and his ability to find openings.
The MMA Guru picks Chris Curtis to finish Kelvin Gastelum in round three via body shot. He expects a war where both land big shots, but Curtis will dig to the body consistently, wearing Gastelum down. He notes Gastelum's poor shape and good chin, predicting that body shots will be the key. He describes a sequence where Gastelum slows down and Curtis finishes him against the cage.
Zane picks Chris Curtis because he believes Curtis will land the better, more memorable shots. He notes that Curtis is an accurate and powerful counter puncher, while Gastelum remains hittable with his chin up. Zane also points out that Curtis has been getting decisions lately and that Gastelum's prime started early and he has taken a lot of damage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 1 | 36 of 87 | 41% | 36 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 50 of 163 | 30% | 50 of 163 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 19 of 49 | 38% | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 29 of 91 | 31% | 29 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 1 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 17 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 21 of 72 | 29% | 21 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 36 of 87 | 41% | 25 of 72 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 29 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 50 of 163 | 30% | 27 of 134 | 15 of 20 | 8 of 9 | 48 of 159 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 19 of 49 | 38% | 11 of 38 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 19 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 29 of 91 | 31% | 12 of 71 | 11 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 27 of 87 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 17 of 38 | 44% | 14 of 34 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 8 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 21 of 72 | 29% | 15 of 63 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 21 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-155), Curtis (+135)
Round 1
The UFC 282 ESPN prelims chose violence to open them up, as middleweight strikers Curtis (29-9, 3-1 UFC) and Buckley (15-5, 5-3 UFC) are sure to throw leather with high intensity for as long as they can. With 27 knockouts combined, referee Jason Herzog and the smelling salts may be needed by the bout’s end if fight fans are lucky. The sluggers that have developed some bad blood before their match do not touch gloves, as they would rather introduce their fists to one another’s faces first. The fighters are tense and not willing to release much of note early, tossing single strikes at one another like head kicks. Curtis splits the guard with a jab, and he sits down on a low kick. Buckley answers with one of his own, and this back-and-forth of similar strikes continues. Buckley jabs to the head and body, and he hops back from a one-two that zips straight at him. Buckley crowds his man with a few short punches, and when Curtis escapes, Buckley whips a low kick that slaps hard on the lead leg. Curtis gets one-two through, and Buckley surges forward in hopes of getting that back after getting stung. Curtis stays light on his feet and escapes, while keeping a high guard to defend against the heavier strikes hurled at him. Buckley mixes his strikes up with a body shot, and he whiffs with the lion’s share of a combination that ends with a glancing head kick. Curtis intercepts an advancing Buckley with an inside thigh kick that skips into the groin, and the fans shower them with boos until realizing it was a foul. Curtis apologizes and Buckley recovers, and they return to throwing single strikes when resuming. Buckley just misses with a head kick, and Curtis starts talking to him. Curtis fires off a jab and a right hand, and Buckley tries to reply with five heavy punches that largely collide with the guard. The jabs from Curtis lead to Buckley pawing at his eye, and Buckley tries to chop down the lead leg. Buckley remains busy but walks into a body kick, and he gets cracked as he strikes. Curtis smiles at him and blocks a pair of hefty uppercuts, and he shells up when Buckley fires off a combo that concludes with a head kick. When Buckley’s punches up top miss, he goes after the body with a salvo. The round ends right as Buckley connects with a handful of body shots.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Curtis is quick to claim the center of the cage, and Buckley leads off with kicks to the body on the outside. Curtis walks Buckley down and jabs several times, eliciting reactions out of his opponent. Curtis walks through the heavy blows to snap the head back with straight punches, and Buckley is throwing everything he has into power shots. Curtis’ guard and head movement largely keep him out of harm, but Buckley crashes the pocket and catches him at the end of a left hook. Curtis looks to play counter, and Buckley beats him to the punch with a combo. Curtis snaps out a left hand, and Buckley strings three punches together before absorbing a low kick. They land alternating hooks at the same time, and Curtis rolls when retreating as Buckley pours on the pressure. Two nasty hooks to the body slam into Curtis’ side, but he catches Buckley leaping at him with a left. Buckley loads up and connects, forcing Curtis into action with a responsive head kick. Buckley chains a long series of punches together off the guard, and he is feeling himself.
Curtis blocks and catches a head kick and unloads a brutal left hand that knocks Buckley clean off his feet, and Buckley might be out when he hits the ground. “New Mansa” snaps back into action, and he throws his legs up and tries to swing off his back, but Curtis is measured and he drills his foe with ground-and-pound. Buckley goes out again, and the punches knock him back conscious once more as Herzog is paying close attention but giving Buckley a great deal of leeway. Knowing the finish is right there for the taking, Curtis hammers the nail with hammerfists, putting Buckley out once and for all.
Although Buckley comes back to seconds later and appears upset with Herzog about the stoppage, he was knocked out two or three times before the finish materialized. Curtis has bounced back from his first UFC defeat in big way, and he is all smiles after the back-and-forth battle.
The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Joaquin Buckley R2 2:49 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.
Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.
Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.
Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.
Joaquin Buckley - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 0 | 77 of 180 | 42% | 245 of 416 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 12:09 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 5 of 31 | 16% | 21 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 0 | 34 of 68 | 50% | 51 of 89 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:12 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 0 | 18 of 52 | 34% | 90 of 161 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 4 of 16 | 25% | 11 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 104 of 166 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:24 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 9 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sean Brady | 77 of 180 | 42% | 76 of 179 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 71 of 165 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 5 of 31 | 16% | 2 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sean Brady | 34 of 68 | 50% | 34 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 59 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Sean Brady | 18 of 52 | 34% | 18 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 50 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 4 of 16 | 25% | 2 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Sean Brady | 25 of 60 | 41% | 24 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 56 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brady (-170), Buckley (+142)
Round 1
Don’t ask us how Philadelphia’s Brady (18-2, 8-2 UFC) went from a betting favorite around -170 earlier today to an underdog surpassing +200. Someone, possibly including Buckley (21-7, 11-5 UFC) and his team, knows something we don’t. Rumors have swirled that Brady’s knee or nose may be compromised heading into this welterweight contest. Based on these irregularities, the UFC should have erred on the side of caution to shut this fight down. Nevertheless, they persist. Referee Keith Peterson watches as they do not touch gloves, and we do not have a punchline or any nonsense for this one.
Buckley runs out of his corner right after Brady, buzzing past him to find an angle and work his way in. Brady jabs him back, but he already has a bit of marking on his nose. Buckley reaches a left hand over the top and follows with a head kick, and both are blocked. Brady slowly works his way forward before suddenly changing his tempo with a left hand and a clinch attempt. Brady is stuffed, so he backs off and shoots for a double. Buckley shuts him down a second time and offers up a front kick on his own side. Buckley kicks the front leg, which allows Brady to tackle him to the mat and land directly in half guard. Brady postures up to land a few strikes but is much more interested in advancing.
The Pennsylvanian gets into full mount and starts wrapping punches around either side of the guard. Brady rains down punishment, sullying Buckley’s unblemished face by battering it with his fists. Peterson tells Buckley to fight back, so Buckley kicks off the fencing to change positions. Brady thinks about a kimura while on top, gripping Buckley’s right arm and stepping over to side control and north-south. Buckley torques the limb, and he lets it go to not allow Buckley to explode and get away. Buckley bucks, but Brady floats over him to stay in side control landing shots until the round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 2
Brady opens up the second round with a head kick and a spinning back fist, and Buckley ducks under them to engage. Brady hoists him to the mat from behind when getting his hands on the kickboxer, hurling Buckley to his back to pick up where he left off in side control. Brady alternates between ground strikes and improving his position, and he climbs into full mount. Brady stays tightly pressed to Buckley when not landing punches. Buckley kicks and bucks to the best of his ability, and he miraculously explodes back to his feet and goes right after Brady. Buckley scores a few punches, and when he is about to drive a knee into the chest, Brady catches it out of the air and takes him back down to suck the wind out of the building.
Brady climbs back into full mount without waiting too long, and he revs up his engine and starts clobbering Buckley with his fists. Brady turns higher amplitude blows into rapid swings more like Donkey Kong hammerfists, but these are not about to finish the fight. He goes back to picking his openings while Buckley is covered up, and he slashes down with elbows to boot. Buckley has no answers, with Brady drumming on him with strong elbows. Brady allows Buckley to punch back so he can hack with more elbows. This continues right to the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brady
Round 3
The last round opens with Buckley pushing the pace and swarming his way forward. This offense works against him as he continues to race after the Pennsylvanian, as Brady times a perfect takedown to put him on his back again. Brady positions himself in half guard to smother his opponent, holding him down with his left hand and slugging him with his right. Brady briefly claims mount, but peels himself back to the half guard so he can maintain control. Brady wraps his left arm around Buckley’s head to constantly threaten with an arm-triangle setup, staying busy with punches when not doing so.
Brady reassumes full mount, slicing through like a hot knife through butter, and his bombardment of ground strikes continues. Brady pushes himself to the side for a brief submission threat, but gets back to mount to club Buckley with a seemingly never-ending stream of punches. Buckley is completely out of ideas, and Brady pushes on and hangs on the cage to remain on top. Brady thumps Buckley with heavier punches, as if he were taking some frustration out on his opponent about the bizarro betting odds situation surrounding the fight. He proudly ruined the opposing bettors' days as he completely, utterly dominated Buckley, remaining on the offense all the way to the final horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-25 Brady)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-25 Brady)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Brady (30-26 Brady)
The Official Result
Sean Brady def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-27)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing his dangerous striking and takedown defense. He notes Buckley defended nine takedowns against Usman and landed more significant strikes despite control time. He thinks Brady's chin is suspect after his last knockout loss. He believes Buckley can scramble and get back to striking. He trusts Buckley to let his hands go and not accept positions.
Angelo leans towards Buckley because he saw Buckley throw hands against Usman and not get frozen by takedown threats. He thinks Buckley understands the matchup and will try to knock Brady out. However, he doesn't trust it enough to spend actual money.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Joaquin Buckley, reasoning that in a fight that could go either way, he prefers the underdog. He notes Buckley has power and could knock out Brady if he stuffs takedowns. However, he acknowledges Brady could maul Buckley on the ground. Brady predicts Buckley wins by knockout, but with low confidence.
Cody picks Buckley as an underdog, citing his power, takedown defense, and experience against wrestlers like Usman and Covington. He thinks Buckley can stuff takedowns and land a knockout, as Brady's striking and chin are questionable. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brady but hesitantly, agreeing with Zane. He notes Buckley's predictable timing and movement, but his relentless pressure could break Brady if the fight goes long. Connor thinks Brady's wrestling should win in three rounds, but Buckley's confidence and cardio make it interesting. He prefers it as a five-round fight.
Daniel picks Buckley, arguing that Brady is a great hammer but not a great nail, and has wilted when pressured. He believes Buckley's power and unpredictability will lead to a knockout, and that Buckley's takedown defense is underrated. Daniel thinks the Usman fight was an anomaly due to the bright lights.
Brady has a huge grappling edge; Buckley's takedown defense and ground game are weak (Usman held him down easily). Brady's offensive wrestling is good, but his control can be compromised by short legs. However, if Brady keeps it simple and controls Buckley from top position with ground and pound, he should win comfortably. Striking gap is not massive; Brady can hold his own. The only way Buckley wins is a flash KO or major improvements to his takedown defense, which is unlikely.
Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Buckley has been on a tear, with four straight wins including a KO over Stephen Thompson and a TKO over Colby Covington. His southpaw stance and power (3.88 SLpM, 36% accuracy) pose problems for Brady, who is coming off a KO loss to Michael Morales. Brady's strength is grappling (3.53 takedowns per round), but Buckley has 72% takedown defense and has shown improved wrestling. Buckley's reach advantage (76" vs 72") helps him land from distance. Expect Buckley to stuff takedowns and land a knockout in the later rounds.
Jacob is confident in Sean Brady, arguing that Brady is a better grappler than Usman and that Buckley looked clueless on the ground against Usman. He believes Brady will outgrapple Buckley and possibly finish him. He notes that Buckley is 4-5 in the UFC when he doesn't record a takedown.
Lucrative James picks Sean Brady because he believes Brady's grappling will be the difference, similar to how Kamaru Usman dominated Buckley. He notes Buckley's poor jiu-jitsu off his back and Brady's superior submission skills. He predicts Brady will submit Buckley via arm triangle, though he acknowledges Buckley's athleticism could make it competitive early. He also mentions Brady's recent knee injury but thinks he will perform.
The host picks Brady by submission, believing his grappling will be too much for Buckley. He notes that Buckley's power is not as dangerous as Morales', and Brady should be able to get takedowns and find dominant positions. He expects a dominant performance and a submission win.
Paul also picks Buckley, citing his improvements against high-level wrestlers and Brady's limited striking and durability. He thinks Buckley's power and takedown defense will be key, and that Brady's path to victory is narrow. Paul expects Buckley to win by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Sean Brady, citing his high-level grappling and ability to exploit Buckley's wrestling weaknesses. He notes Usman easily held down Buckley, and Brady's takedown timing is excellent. He believes Buckley's forward-jumping style plays into Brady's reactive takedowns. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27.
Zane picks Brady but hesitantly, noting Buckley's unflappability and cardio could cause problems. He points out that Brady's wrestling should dominate, but Brady has psychological limitations and may fall into striking. Zane wishes it were five rounds, as Buckley's pressure could break Brady over time. He sees Brady's path as early takedown control.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 0 | 41 of 99 | 41% | 137 of 243 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 | 0 | 12:57 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 44 of 148 | 29% | 51 of 156 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 7 of 11 | 63% | 41 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 33 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 33 of 56 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 10 of 35 | 28% | 13 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 6 of 20 | 30% | 20 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 11 of 34 | 32% | 11 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 26 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 20 of 58 | 34% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kamaru Usman | 41 of 99 | 41% | 33 of 89 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 69 | 2 of 4 | 17 of 26 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 44 of 148 | 29% | 29 of 130 | 12 of 15 | 3 of 3 | 41 of 144 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kamaru Usman | 7 of 11 | 63% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 3 of 17 | 17% | 2 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Kamaru Usman | 8 of 21 | 38% | 6 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 10 of 35 | 28% | 5 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Kamaru Usman | 6 of 20 | 30% | 4 of 18 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 11 of 34 | 32% | 6 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Kamaru Usman | 10 of 26 | 38% | 10 of 25 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Joaquin Buckley | 20 of 58 | 34% | 16 of 54 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 56 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-258), Usman (+210)
Round 1
The proverbial torch is lit and in the hand of former champ Usman (20-4, 15-3 UFC), whose only losses in the UFC are to Leon Edwards twice and against Khamzat Chimaev in a middleweight match that may have been a draw. After plenty of time off to get his head right, “The Nigerian Nightmare” hoists the flame and will do his darnedest to stave off the hard-charging kickfighter Buckley (21-6, 11-4 UFC). Something dramatic might happen in the next 25 minutes, and if it does, referee Mike Beltran will be on top of it. The welterweights are not brought to the center of the cage to receive instructions, and instead do it of their own accord, going forehead to forehead. They opt not to bump fists to seal the cage. It’s on with the show. Buckley practically sprints out of his corner to get after it, fishing with jabs to set up a left. They clash heads on the way in, and Buckley hops back uncomfortably. Usman no-sells it and plods forward, looping a single right hand and shooting for a double when Buckley fails on his counter. Buckley hits his seat, and he posts off an arm to try to recover position. Usman drags him away from the fencing so he can establish himself in half guard, and he presses down with his body weight to keep the striker flat. Usman postures up to hack down with an elbow, and after striking, he immediately returns to imposing every pound of his imposing frame. Usman finds a right hand around the guard as he smothers “New Mansa,” and when Buckley sits up, he connects with another solid right. Usman drags him back down the moment Buckley is about to escape, where he makes Buckley pay for his effort with some more ground-and-pound. Usman grinds effectively with powerful punches from above, and he stacks Buckley up to gain a little more distance and increase the potency on his attacks. Usman returns to half guard, shredding Buckley’s right eyebrow open with his elbows. Usman bombards Buckley with elbows and furious punches until time expires. Buckley stands up, blood streaming down his face, and he smiles.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 2
Buckley is just as eager to get going despite around five minutes of that, as he races at Usman letting punches go. Usman keeps his guard up to parry or deflect most flying at his face. Usman kicks the body and stays out of range of the counter left, and he ducks down directly into an uppercut. The 38-year-old’s beard holds up fine, and he measures a left hand and fakes for a takedown that draws an exaggerated reaction from his opponent. Buckley plants a side kick on the midsection that makes Usman take a funny step, and he surges at the former champ to put fists on him. Usman responds with one high and one to the body, and he defends the head kick that soars his direction. Usman uses a one-two to shoot in for a speedy single, and he strips Buckley’s footing out and sets him down at the three-minute mark. Usman climbs his way to establish mount, hopping to the side to control in half guard rather than giving Buckley a chance to get out. Usman keeps at least one arm under Buckley’s leg to keep him grounded, and he pummels “New Mansa” with short but damaging strikes with any free hand or wing. Usman hacks with another elbow to open the cut back up on Buckley’s eyebrow or eyelid, and he frames off to keep pounding on the kickboxer. Usman works Buckley over from above, hopping to half guard on the other side so he can beat down Buckley with right hands and elbows. Usman further works on Buckley, causing more blood to flow until the round ends. As Buckley stands up, Usman falls off of him, but it is not from ill intent and instead a strange position that befell the two.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 3
To change things up, Buckley comes out of his corner with his hands down, positioning himself in a more karate stance. He lands a single side kick, and he charges forward with a flurry of punches but ends up bouncing his head into the former champ’s. Usman shrugs it off and pitches a head kick at him, and he slides to the side and eats a left hand. Buckley connects twice before getting on his bike, not wishing to stand still so he is vulnerable to a takedown entry. Usman level changes to draw a reaction out of him, ducking a right hand over the top. Buckley loads up with left hands, throwing Usman off-balance but not dropping him. Usman’s jab re-opens the wound on Buckley’s face once more, and he jabs a front kick to the body. Buckley stays behind a power jab, and he dodges an Usman hook to catch him with two. Usman drops down, and he takes Buckley off his feet and assumes top position. Usman is quick to rev up his ground-and-pound engine again, where he further bloodies up “New Mansa” with his ultra-effective ground strikes. Buckley surges to a knee, and Usman leans on him and knees him in the posterior a few times to discourage him from standing without protecting his face. Usman tugs him back down, and he looks irritated that he has been taken down and controlled like this. Buckley posts off his arm and is wrenched down immediately, as Usman mounts him and bombards him with punches and nasty elbows. As the elbows continue to connect, the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Round 4
The fighters get right back to it, with a fire lit under Buckley’s belly. He swings a head kick and several punches behind them, but Usman’s head movement and footwork is making a huge difference even at the age of 38. Buckley tries to work behind his jab, switching stances so eh can chain strikes together, and he pops Usman twice as he retreats. Buckley scores an uppercut, stuffs a takedown and eats a right on the way out. Buckley keeps his hands low as he starts talking to the former champ, goading him into reckless exchanges. One such exchange immediately presents itself, and it ends in a bump of heads. Usman does not register as if anything happened at all, and he snipes the kickboxer with a jab. Buckley tells him it was a good strike, and Usman answers with a power double. Buckley sprawls about as deep as someone can against the wall, and he smiles that he might be able to defend this deep effort. The smile turns to a grimace as Usman lifts him up and down to the ground, where he once more establishes himself in smothering yet dangerous top control. Buckley starts booing from off his back, as Usman controls him, with “The Nigerian Nightmare” shifting from one side to the other. Buckley motions to Beltran as if he will be stood up, but Usman is plenty active and has not drawn so much as a single warning for a lack of action. Buckley sits to a knee, and Usman pounds on him with a free right hand and a few elbows. Usman winds up with a power punch, and his slashing elbow concludes the fourth frame.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Usman
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 5
As if he wants to channel his inner Leon Edwards, Buckley starts the fifth round off with a mighty head kick. Usman tanks it, unlike his fateful title loss, and he keeps marching forward. Beltran asks for the fighters to close their hands, and they proceed to jab it out. Usman goes down low for a single and then a double, and Buckley manages to break off and defend from the effort. Usman tries to change levels again, and Buckley once more stops it in its tracks. This time, Buckley strings together a few punches on the inside on the break. Usman pierces the guard with a sharp jab and fakes a single, and Buckley ignores it and gives back two power jabs of his own. “The Nigerian Nightmare” tries again for a takedown, and a third effort fails. A fourth does as well, and Buckley lets his hands fly and knocks Usman back a step. Usman whiffs with a left hand, and he dodges a big hook that comes back his way. Buckley wraps a left around the guard as he approaches awkwardly, and the two crash into one another as Buckley anticipates an Usman takedown. Usman bullies him to the wall, but he cannot keep him there. Buckley explodes out of control and starts slugging away, catching Usman with short, compact swings. Buckley releases a big left hand and plants a side kick on Usman’s chest, and scoops an uppercut that buzzes the former champ’s chin. Buckley scores with a jab and an uppercut, stinging Usman and forcing him to backpedal as he appears to be hurt. Buckley rushes at him, looping an uppercut his direction but not landing it. Buckley swings with everything he has, smacking Usman and getting tagged on the way back. The two hear the final horn blare, and immediately disengage the offense and congratulate one another for five fairly entertaining rounds likely deserving of “Fight of the Night” given the lack of competition earlier tonight.
On the post-fight interview, the victorious former champ is nearly overcome with emotion, taking a moment to gather his thoughts as he expresses gratitude towards his opponent. Usman says that he feels great and that people should “shut the front door”—paraphrased to remove profanity—about his bad his knees are. While he does not have a name on his tongue, he does state that he should be one win away from a title shot at worst. No matter who the self-proclaimed “f---ing boogeyman” fights next, we will be there for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (49-46 Usman)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (48-47 Usman)
The Official Result
Kamaru Usman def. Joaquin Buckley via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Buckley because he is younger, more active, and has speed and power. He notes that Usman is aging, hasn't fought in two years, and is on a losing streak. He believes Buckley will stay a step ahead and that the UFC is using Usman to build the next generation.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley by third-round knockout. He believes Usman is past his prime, citing a two-year layoff, bad knees, and a washed performance in the second Edwards fight. He thinks Buckley is in his prime with power and will catch Usman's chin. He notes that a few years ago this would be a different fight, but now it's Buckley's time.
Connor picks Buckley, emphasizing that Usman's striking is built on posturing and a steady rhythm, and that Buckley's relentless pressure and power will disrupt that. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power striker and that Buckley's wrestling scrambles and durability will be key. Connor also points out that Usman's age and knee issues make him vulnerable to being overwhelmed, though he acknowledges Usman could still catch Buckley with clean shots or force him into bad wrestling exchanges.
Age and bad knees are catching up to Usman at 38. Buckley is younger and better at this moment. He will stop the takedowns, punish Usman on the feet, and find a knockout between three and a half to four rounds.
The Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, noting value on Usman but favoring Buckley's movement, output, and physicality. He predicts Buckley will get ahead early and stay ahead, finishing Usman by TKO in the fourth round. He cites Usman's long layoff, knee issues, and inability to physically dominate Buckley as key factors.
Zane picks Buckley because he believes Buckley's youth, power, pace, and relentless pressure will overwhelm the older, worn-down Usman. He notes that Usman has never faced a high-volume power puncher like Buckley, and that Buckley's improved speed changes and physicality make him a bully at welterweight. Zane acknowledges Usman's technical advantages but thinks Buckley's hustle and stamina will carry him through, especially as Usman's knees and age have diminished his ability to maintain his own pace.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 37 of 124 | 29% | 71 of 161 | 1 of 8 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 75 of 151 | 49% | 81 of 160 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 10 of 51 | 19% | 10 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 23 of 55 | 41% | 23 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 25 of 56 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 28 of 55 | 50% | 29 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 36 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Colby Covington | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 37 of 124 | 29% | 26 of 108 | 8 of 11 | 3 of 5 | 33 of 120 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Colby Covington | 75 of 151 | 49% | 59 of 131 | 13 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 65 of 135 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 8 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 10 of 51 | 19% | 5 of 42 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 3 | 10 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Colby Covington | 23 of 55 | 41% | 18 of 47 | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 43 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Colby Covington | 28 of 55 | 50% | 20 of 46 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Colby Covington | 24 of 41 | 58% | 21 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-285), Covington (+230)
Round 1
Refereeing the final UFC fight of 2024 is Dan Miragliotta. Covington lands a body kick to start. Buckley takes the center and starts to walk down "Chaos." Covington throwing out his jab, which Buckley walks into. "New Mansa" is struggling against the jab and coming up short as he throws hard-hitting hooks. Covington's first takedown attempt is stuffed easily by Buckley. "Chaos" is cut over his right eye. Head kick thrown by Buckley, who then comes over the top with a left hook. Covington lands an uppercut and follows it up with a series of left hooks. The jab of Covington continues to keep Buckley at bay. Covington goes for another takedown with a minute left. Buckley controls the head and stays upright. Buckley is looking good as he lands a right hand with five seconds to go that floors Covington. "Chaos" was potentially saved by the bell, but on second look it appears to be more of a slip.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley defends another takedown attempt and punishes Covington with a series of right hooks to the body. Buckley has really found his stride and looks monstrous. Big uppercut to the body for Buckley. Covington finally gets a successful takedown and gets into side control. Buckley is able to recover half-guard and then uses the cage to get back to his feet with two minutes left. Covington eats a kick, and Buckley is staying very composed. Nice jab and straight from Covington. Big leg kick from Buckley, who has controlled the action on the feet. Buckley uses a hard jab and is targeting the right eye of Covington that is already damaged.
Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
Covington is told he has to protect his eye by the doctor. Buckley stuffs a takedown. Buckley is working his jab. Covington does a spinning jump kick. Buckley fires back with hooks and then stuffs a bad takedown attempt. Buckley gets into full mount but Covington is able to get up. Buckley lands a big uppercut that hurts "Chaos." Covington's eye is further damaged, and he has a crimson mask. Big left hook for Buckley. "New Mansa" is in total control. Covington has another takedown attempt stuffed. Buckley is punishing Covington on the ground with heavy punches and elbows. Covington is showing heart and scrambles. Buckley locks in a triangle choke in an attempt to get his first submission win. Covington escapes and is now in full guard. Covington is landing some small punches on top. Buckley is attempting to wall walk with a minute left. Covington is back on his feet and has been clearly outstruck so far. The fight is paused for the doctor to look at Covington's eye. She has concerns about Covington's eye, and the one-sided fight is waved off.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Colby Covington via TKO (Doctor's Stoppage); R3, 4:42.
Angelo picks Buckley because it is a 'what have you done for me lately' sport and Covington looked like a shell of himself in his last fight. He notes Buckley's power, movement, and doggedness, while Covington's pressure and wrestling were absent. He believes if the old Covington shows up he wins, but the recent version gets smoked. He is not sure if he will bet on it.
Big Brady picks Colby Covington to win by decision, going against the grain. He thinks the line is too wide and that Covington can take Buckley down easily, especially as the fight goes on. He notes Buckley has never been past three rounds and has struggled against wrestlers like Abdul Razak Alhassan. He acknowledges Covington's last performance was terrible but attributes it to a broken foot.
Cody picks Colby Covington as a live underdog, citing his elite wrestling, cardio, durability, and experience against top competition. He believes Buckley's path to victory relies on a knockout or takedowns, but Covington's takedown defense and pressure will neutralize that. Cody also notes Covington's motivation in a potential retirement fight and the hometown crowd advantage in Florida.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Covington's confidence is shattered and his style requires constant pressure, which he no longer provides. He notes that Buckley is a powerful puncher who will keep coming forward, and that Covington's wrestling is ineffective off the back foot. Connor sees a high chance of a finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley to win, citing Buckley's paid dues, knockout power, takedown defense, and get-up game. He notes Buckley's wins over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque as proof he's ready for this step up. Vreeland is not concerned about Buckley's cardio, believing the move to welterweight has improved his conditioning. He acknowledges Colby Covington's relentless pace and takedown attempts but thinks Buckley's athleticism and power will be the difference. Vreeland mentions the odds (-265) are a bit steep for a bet but stands by the pick.
Lucrative James picks Joaquin Buckley to win, citing Buckley's momentum, athleticism, and power versus Colby Covington's decline due to age, inactivity, and poor striking defense. He notes Buckley's recent knockouts over Stephen Thompson and Vicente Luque, and emphasizes that Covington has been rocked in past fights and is no longer the same fighter. He believes Buckley's volume and dynamic striking will overwhelm Covington, likely leading to a knockout.
Covington is tough to predict at this stage, especially after his flat performance against Leon Edwards. Buckley is expected to showcase some of those issues, but it's hard to have confidence in Buckley at chalk odds. If Covington shows up at 70% of his former self, he could overwhelm Buckley. The official prediction is Buckley by knockout, but Covington could be the value spot odds-wise.
Paul also picks Colby Covington, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He highlights Covington's durability, pressure, and ability to push a pace that Buckley hasn't faced in five rounds. Paul mentions he took late Colby finish props at long odds, seeing a path where Covington weathers early storms and takes over in championship rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley, despite being a Colby Covington fan. He cites Buckley's physicality, lateral movement, and body work as key advantages. He notes that Covington is 36, coming off a long layoff, and took the fight on short notice. He believes Buckley's takedown defense and cardio are underrated, and predicts a body shot TKO in round two. He also mentions that Covington's linear style struggles against fighters who move laterally.
Zane picks Buckley because Covington is mentally broken after his knockout loss to Usman and subsequent decline. He notes that Buckley has the same high-volume pressure style but with more power and durability, and that Covington's apprehension makes him unable to impose his wrestling or striking. Zane believes Buckley will overwhelm Covington and likely finish him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 49 of 106 | 46% | 63 of 121 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 34 of 93 | 36% | 55 of 117 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 21 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 6 of 26 | 23% | 16 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 28 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Stephen Thompson | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 20 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:37 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Stephen Thompson | 1 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 19 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 49 of 106 | 46% | 38 of 93 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 13 of 15 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 34 of 93 | 36% | 23 of 78 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 28 of 82 | 5 of 9 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 6 of 26 | 23% | 5 of 21 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 22 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 45 | 48% | 18 of 41 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 34 | 9 of 10 | 0 of 1 |
| Stephen Thompson | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 8 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Stephen Thompson | 16 of 34 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-198), Thompson (+164)
Round 1
It’s a striker’s delight to cap off the prelims, when former welterweight title challenger and famed karateka Thompson (17-7-1, 12-7-1 UFC) looks for one more W before hanging things up altogether. He will come up against a man in Buckley (19-6, 9-4 UFC) who is 11 years his junior, and loves throwing kicks just as much as “Wonderboy.” Before feet meet face, referee Mike Beltran clocks them in, and the combatants bump fists. Buckley moves directly to the center of the cage and starts pressuring the older fighter, and he is still out of range. Buckley swarms his opponent, gets caught with a right hand and lifts “Wonderboy” up with a double to slam him down. Thompson wall-walks to get up after a few seconds, and chants for “Wonderboy” boom deafeningly throughout the Delta Center. Buckley lands an elbow on the inside to break off, and when they split, Thompson kicks his man in the head. Thompson blitzes with a three-punch salvo, knocking Buckley off-balance. When Buckley gathers himself to advance, Thompson is prepared and he drills Buckley upside the head. Buckley crashes the pocket, leading with his head, and he pushes Thompson back with a flurry of fists. Thompson bounces off the fence to reset, tagging Buckley with a body kick and catching him with a right hand. Buckley responds with a single, lifting Thompson’s right leg up but not putting him down. Buckley lands a few punches on the inside before Thompson skirts away, with the karateka scoring on the break. Thompson backs off and connects with a right hand counter, and blood leaks from a cut on the corner of Buckley’s right eye. Buckley rushes at his foe to close in, getting clipped and pushing through it to surge forward and take the fight down. Thompson defends with elbows to the side of the head and fights his way back up without much effort. Buckley tries to hold him against the fence, but Thompson splits off and does not take much on the break. Buckley lunges, landing at the end of his punches, and Thompson shakes them off and is ready to counter. Buckley whiffs when leaping forward, and he gets kicked low and high. Buckley shoots desperately for a takedown, eats an uppercut to push through it, and he tries a second attempt but cannot get the former title challenger down. The horn sound with them in the clinch.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Round 2
Thompson reintroduces himself to start off the round with long jabs. Buckley pressures, but he walks face-first into strikes. Thompson splits the guard with a front kick and just misses with an axe kick and a wheel kick, and he scoots away to bounce off the fencing. Buckley gets off a right hand, and Thompson defends by backing off, countering with his own right and setting up several elbows when Buckley shoots. Buckley cannot hold his foe against the cage, and Thompson is able to free himself and get to his preferred distance. Thompson sticks out a lead right hand and backs off, and Buckley times a takedown to take him off his feet. Thompson climbs up with the fence behind him, and he splits up and lands two punches on the break. They trade low kicks, and Buckley’s head kick is easily blocked. Thompson beats Buckley to the punch with two right hands, but Buckley sits down on a final right hand. Buckley comes up short with a high kick, and Thompson prods out a front kick as fans again cheer loudly for him. Thompson splits the guard with a right hand, and he lands a second only to get clipped on the way back. Buckley lunges and catches Thompson a second time before wrapping his hands around Thompson’s waist to wrest him to the mat. Thompson returns to a knee and pops back up, not settling for getting grounded. In the clinch, Buckley knees his man square in the groin. Thompson tells Beltran after a 15-second break he is good to go, and Beltran tells Buckley to be careful before restarting. Thompson leads off with a pair of kicks from his lead leg, and he swats out with a low kick before backing off from a Buckley blitz. Buckley whiffs on a haymaker and a cartwheel kick, and he walks into two sharp, long right hands. The fighters clack heads as they engage, and Thompson is light on his feet to counter a swarming Buckley as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Thompson
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
There is one final clap of hands to get started, and Thompson picks up where he left off potshotting. Buckley loads up on a right hand, and he gets his hands on Thompson and catches him with a left. Thompson bounces away, and Buckley goes wild, bursting his way forward throwing caution to the wind. Thompson stays composed and fires off a head kick that is barely blocked in time, and he is met by a charging Buckley. Thompson spins out of the tie-up and rests, sticking Buckley with a right hand and eating one when escaping. Thompson has two strikes blocked before a head kick zooms at him, and he puts out three punches and a body kick before Buckley can give him anything back. Thompson dings him with a right hook and puts up a high guard to defend against a similar strike, and he whips a kick up and rattles Buckley’s noodle.
“New Mansa” shakes his head, and he springs forward to attack, lashing out with a right hook that misses, ducking a counter and launching a missile of a right hand that explodes square on the chin of the karateka. The destructive blow face-plants Thompson, and Beltran sprints in to get between them before Buckley can land anything else.
It only took one from the highlight-reel machine, and any debate about scores is wiped clean off the map. Thompson needs a moment to compose himself, wobbly on the feet, but he comes to and gives it up for the victorious Buckley. This is a massive win for Buckley, who vaults into title contention after punching out “Wonderboy,” and he uses his time on the mic well by calling out Kamaru Usman for an eliminator matchup.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Stephen Thompson R3 2:17 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his speed, power, and improved wrestling. He notes Stephen Thompson is 41 and has historically struggled against wrestlers. He believes Buckley will use blast doubles to take Thompson down and grind out a win, though he acknowledges Thompson could catch him with a counter. He also mentions Buckley's recent controversial behavior but thinks this is his opportunity to win back fans.
Big Brady picks Stephen Thompson as an underdog, arguing that Buckley's wrestling is not on the level of the few fighters who have successfully taken Thompson down (Shavkat, Burns, Belal). He believes Thompson will out-strike Buckley, similar to his performances against Kevin Holland, Geoff Neal, and Vicente Luque, and win a decision.
Cody picks Buckley, emphasizing his wrestling and power. He notes that Thompson's speed declines with age and that Buckley can mix takedowns with striking. He believes Buckley can either grind out a decision or land a knockout.
Connor argues that Buckley's wrestling is the key to victory. He notes that Thompson has lost his ancillary MMA skills and relies solely on his karate, which is automatic but not enough to stop Buckley's takedowns and top control. Buckley has shown effective wrestling in recent wins, and Thompson's lack of recent finishes and durability issues make Buckley the clear pick.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Joaquin Buckley, having bet on him. He believes Buckley's improved footwork and timing of blast double legs will be key to taking down Stephen Thompson. Vreeland notes that Thompson has shown vulnerability to wrestling, as seen in the Shavkat Rakhmonov fight where he didn't fight hands. He expects Buckley to ground and pound for a TKO or submission.
The host notes the blueprint to beat Wonderboy at this stage is to grapple him and keep him on his back. He expects Buckley to get the fight to the ground promptly and use his top-heavy approach to grind out a win on the scorecards, referencing Buckley's recent performance against taller opponents.
Paul picks Buckley, citing his recent wrestling improvements against Nurlan Akhmetov. He thinks Buckley must use takedowns to avoid a kickboxing match with Thompson. He expects a decision win for Buckley.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley to beat Stephen Thompson, citing Buckley's takedown threat and lateral movement. He notes Thompson is a linear striker who struggles against fighters who move side to side, and Buckley's crashing style will negate Thompson's range. He predicts a second-round TKO, as Buckley will find takedowns and ground-and-pound. He also mentions Thompson's age (41) and potential retirement.
Zane agrees that Buckley's wrestling will be decisive. He highlights that Thompson's striking is still sharp but Buckley's physicality and tireless pressure, combined with his improved top control, will overwhelm Thompson. Zane also notes that Buckley could finish via TKO if he maintains top position.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 1 | 86 of 156 | 55% | 113 of 187 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 5:30 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 31 of 72 | 43% | 43 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 23 | 34% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:16 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 7 of 22 | 31% | 11 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 23 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:42 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 15 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 1 | 64 of 106 | 60% | 82 of 127 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:32 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 17 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:34 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 86 of 156 | 55% | 70 of 137 | 14 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 71 of 106 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 31 of 72 | 43% | 17 of 46 | 13 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 23 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 23 | 34% | 5 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 7 of 22 | 31% | 4 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 14 of 27 | 51% | 8 of 21 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 9 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 8 of 21 | 38% | 3 of 13 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 64 of 106 | 60% | 57 of 98 | 7 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 60 of 88 |
| Nursulton Ruziboev | 16 of 29 | 55% | 10 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 12 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-166), Ruziboev (+140)
Round 1
Ever since moving down to 170 pounds, the 5-foot-8 kickfighter Buckley (18-6, 8-4 UFC) has found a new lease on life, even if he tries to move up a more logjammed division with contenders waiting ages for title shots these days. Looking to crash that party will be Uzbekistan finisher Ruziboev (34-8-2, 2 NC; 2-0 UFC), who has shifted back and forth from welterweight and middleweight over the years. Knowing that one of these men may need smelling salts in the foreseeable future, referee Keith Peterson is ultra-prepped and ready for the nonsense-free proceedings. There is a stern staredown between the two that ultimately results in no touch of gloves. Buckley crowds his way forward to begin, and he backs away from a front kick that is aimed his direction. Buckley shifts to the left and right while trying to find his way in, and Ruziboev is warned for outstretched fingers. Ruziboev reaches with a right hand, and Buckley comes at him swinging. Ruziboev ducks away from a huge overhand left, and he tries to line up straight shots to intercept the shorter man coming in. Ruziboev misses another front kick, and he lets Buckley fly past him when Buckley is winging shots. The crowd starts chanting “USA,” and Buckley absorbs this energy and surges forward, where he takes a flush flying knee to the body and tackles Ruziboev to the ground. Buckley is wrapped up when landing on top, with Ruziboev hooking his arms around Buckley’s to hope for a stalemate that results in a standup. Buckley is pushed away, and he swings when Ruziboev fights back to his feet. Ruziboev returns fire and clips him, and Buckley retreats only to sprint forward and smash straight into Ruziboev’s chest to put him flat on his back. Buckley decides after landing a few strikes to stand back up, and Ruziboev follows him up. Buckley hops away from a front kick and scores a low kick, and his jabs as well out of range. Buckley keeps his guard up to block a high kick, and his blitz of a few looping strikes come up short. Buckley raises his hand in the air as he circles away, and he tells Ruziboev to fight him. Ruziboev motions to come get him, and Buckley answers as he leaps forward throwing wild hooks. Buckley spins with a back kick that is brushed off, and he walks off disappointed. Ruziboev runs at him and jumps with a flying knee, but Buckley is elsewhere as the round concludes.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley appears to have a fire lit in his belly as he starts the second round, as he races forward and releases a big kick early. Ruziboev retreats and measures Buckley with a right hand. Buckley resets and blazes forward, ripping Ruziboev off of his feet and tossing him down to the floor like a sack of potatoes. Ruziboev uses his offensive guard to kick Buckley off of him, and Buckley allows him to get back up. Ruziboev gets off a right hand that partially connects, and Buckley closes in and lands as body shot. Ruziboev trots forward with his arms outstretched, and he walks into a front kick to the sternum. Buckley chases Ruziboev around and shrugs off a right hand so he can unload with body shots. Buckley takes a flush knee and responds with a right hook that lands cleanly. Buckley is struck with another knee on the way in, and is still struggling to find the range. A side kick from “New Mansa” finds its target, and his guard is high enough to block a straight right hand from his foe. Ruziboev splits the guard with a front kick and hops away from winging hooks that whiz past him. Buckley starts pointing around the cage, and he tries to use this misdirection to charge in and crack his foe. He gets off a big right hand and wrenches Ruziboev down to the mat, slamming him down and landing in side control. Buckley puts a knee on the belly, and Ruziboev pulls him back to guard. Buckley rains down punches, and Ruziboev answers with an armbar that Buckley completely ignores. The round ends, Buckley helps his foe up and they embrace.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
Hands are clapped together to begin the final round. They use alternating jabs to still look for their respective distances, and Buckley leaps forward and pulls back before reaching the target. Buckley has a right hand glance off the target, and Ruziboev replies with a few body shots. Buckley eats a left hand and laughs it off so he can blast Ruziboev in the face with bombs. Buckley knocks Ruziboev off his feet down to his seat, where he moves to top position, and Ruziboev flails frantically with his legs and lands a few upkicks to get Buckley away. Buckley holds on the neck when Ruziboev sits up, and Ruziboev escapes and tries to land some shots. Buckley chases after him and connects with some punishing blows, and Ruziboev goes down again. Buckley leaps on top and begins an onslaught of ground-and-pound when he gets to mount, and he hammers Ruziboev with punches as Ruziboev’s face has been bloodied up. Ruziboev struggles to hang on and grabs the glove to protect himself, so Buckley frames off with his elbow and clobbers him with additional elbows. Ruziboev survives the assault somehow and sweeps the shorter man, and he ignores a triangle setup to move into the half guard so he can blast Buckley with his own offense. Buckley twists and turns, and he explodes to turn Ruziboev over and put him down again. Buckley sits up and jackhammers Ruziboev with right hands, and Peterson is watching closely as Ruziboev’s eye is busted up. Buckley unleashes with everything he has, and Ruziboev responds with several illegal upkicks that land on the spine and the back of the head. Peterson calls time to acknowledge the foul, and Buckley asks for them to be stood up. Ruziboev tries to offer a glove touch, and Buckley shrugs him off. Ruziboev loads up on a head kick, and Buckley walks him down and slugs him in the chops right to the final horn. This matchup somehow has gone the distance, although it is no question who will get their hand raised.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Nursulton Ruziboev via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-26, 29-27)
Angelo picks Nursulton Ruziboev, citing his wrestling and grappling ability, as well as his power in his hands. He notes Ruziboev is a much larger fighter and a capable striker, but worries he might abandon his grappling for striking. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley's speed, power, and improved movement, but believes Ruziboev's wrestling could be the difference.
Big Brady picks Nursulton Ruziboev to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round, calling it a shot in the dark. He notes that Buckley has been knocked out multiple times (by Holland, Curtis, etc.) and Ruziboev has a ton of power. However, he admits he still doesn't know much about Ruziboev, who has over 40 fights but mostly first-round finishes. He thinks Ruziboev's power might be the difference, and if he beats Buckley, he will gain hype.
Cody picks Buckley, noting that Ruziboev has a poor record at 170 lbs (7 of 8 losses at that weight) and tends to gas after the first round. He highlights Buckley's speed, cardio advantage, and ability to explode with big shots. Cody believes Buckley can survive an early onslaught and take over in later rounds, especially with the crowd behind him in St. Louis. He also notes that Ruziboev's takedown defense is suspect and Buckley could mix in wrestling.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley, noting that Buckley has experience against larger opponents and that Ruziboev's ceiling is likely top 30. He believes Buckley can extend the fight and find his range, and that Ruziboev struggles when he doesn't get an early finish. He also mentions the risk of a letdown spot for Buckley after a big win.
The host picks Buckley to win by knockout in rounds 2 or 3, citing his experience and fight IQ against a less tested opponent. He expects Buckley to mix in grappling and wear down Ruziboev before landing a big shot. He notes Ruziboev's size and reach but questions his weight cut and competition level. The pick is confident for the finish, though he acknowledges unknowns about Ruziboev.
Paul leans towards Ruziboev but is hesitant, citing his size and power advantage. He notes that Ruziboev has a 10-fight winning streak with all finishes in the first round, but his record at 170 is poor. Paul worries about the weight cut and cardio, as Ruziboev has not gone past the first round in years. He suggests waiting for weigh-ins to see how Ruziboev looks at 170. Paul acknowledges Buckley's improvements but thinks Ruziboev could be a 'merer' if he lands early.
The MMA Guru picks Nursulton Ruziboev over Joaquin Buckley, noting Ruziboev's reach and rangy striking style. He believes Buckley's boxing-heavy approach will be neutralized by Ruziboev's length and uppercuts, and that Ruziboev's willingness to cheat (eye pokes) could be an advantage. He predicts a TKO win via uppercut as Buckley comes in.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 21 of 63 | 33% | 22 of 65 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 55 of 131 | 41% | 63 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 42 | 35% | 15 of 42 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 6 of 21 | 28% | 7 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vicente Luque | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 48 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 21 of 63 | 33% | 7 of 45 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 13 | 21 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 55 of 131 | 41% | 42 of 112 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 9 | 21 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 42 | 35% | 4 of 27 | 4 of 5 | 7 of 10 | 15 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 15 of 43 | 34% | 7 of 33 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 6 of 21 | 28% | 3 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vicente Luque | 40 of 88 | 45% | 35 of 79 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Luque (-112), Buckley (-108)
Round 1
Buckley and Luque engage, with referee Keith Peterson charged with keeping things clean, though the odds are against him, if the first 11 fights are any indication. Luque is orthodox, Buckley southpaw but switching stances constantly. They exchange low kicks in the early going, with Buckley landing a body kick as well. Luque sticks out the jab, trying to keep the shorter man from getting into punching range. Luque lands a leg kick, and Buckley answers with a pair of punches upstairs. Luque fires off another low kick, and Buckley responds with punches once again, which Luque does not appear to like. They both bounce into the pocket at the same time and Luque goes down, but it appears to be a combined slip and collision rather than a knockdown strike. Luque gets back up and goes on the offensive, backing Buckley up with punches. Luque shoots for a takedown at the 10-second clapper, but can’t finish before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
Buckley reaches out with long kicks to the leg and body. They exchange a flurry of punches at close range, most of which are blocked. Buckley jumps in with a knee that glances. Luque goes for a takedown but Buckley sprawls well. Buckley walks Luque down and lands a blistering pair of punches that have an effect despite landing on Luque’s arms. Buckley reaches out with a head kick that slaps off the high guard.
Luque shoots a slow double-leg, then pulls guard when Buckley pancakes it. Buckley fires off punches from half guard, some of which split Luque’s raised arms and do damage. Luque tries to get to a better position, but Buckley keeps firing away, and as Luque is not giving anything back and has gone completely into his shell, referee Peterson has seen enough, moving in for the stoppage.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Vicente Luque R2 3:17 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Vicente Luque despite admitting he has been a Luque hater. He notes Luque's impressive wrestling against RDA and his overall skills. He acknowledges Joaquin Buckley is dangerous and funny but thinks Luque's mix of striking and wrestling will give him the edge.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley to win by second-round knockout. He believes prime Luque would destroy Buckley, but Luque has taken significant damage, suffered a brain bleed, and admitted to being scared to get hit in his last fight. Brady thinks Luque's durability is compromised and Buckley's power will finish him.
Cody likes Luque's volume and pace, believing he can outwork Buckley who tends to fade. He notes Luque's wrestling as a new wrinkle but thinks the path to victory is through pressure and output. He acknowledges the risk of Buckley's power but sees Luque as the better fighter at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Joaquin Buckley at +124, continuing his fade of Vicente Luque. He cites Luque's history of taking massive damage, the brain bleed, and his struggles against southpaws. He believes Buckley's footwork, speed, and southpaw stance will frustrate Luque, and that Luque's chin may be compromised. He acknowledges Luque's power but thinks Buckley can avoid the left hook and win a decision or late finish.
Luque is more skilled and talented than Buckley, with a nasty leg kick that can sap Buckley's power. He may mix in grappling to nullify Buckley's speed and power advantage. Luque's veteran experience and ability to pressure in later rounds should be decisive. Buckley is a power puncher but Luque can implement leg kicks and potentially finish inside two rounds. The minus 115 line is a steal for a fighter of Luque's caliber.
Paul agrees with Cody, highlighting Luque's wrestling from the RDA fight and his overall well-rounded game. He thinks Luque can take Buckley down and remove his explosive striking, making him a solid play at even money.
The host picks Vicente Luque to win by KO in round two. He believes Buckley will get overconfident and throw wild hooks, while Luque will cover up and counter with hooks from his guard. He notes Luque's tight guard and ability to take a punch. He predicts Luque will crack Buckley on the chin and put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 40 of 141 | 28% | 54 of 161 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 68 of 176 | 38% | 77 of 186 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 12 of 33 | 36% | 12 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 10 of 41 | 24% | 14 of 45 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:35 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 15 of 52 | 28% | 25 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 18 of 45 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:27 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 13 of 56 | 23% | 17 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Alex Morono | 0 | 40 of 90 | 44% | 45 of 96 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 40 of 141 | 28% | 29 of 122 | 10 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 37 of 133 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 68 of 176 | 38% | 41 of 134 | 24 of 36 | 3 of 6 | 55 of 141 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 12 of 33 | 36% | 9 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 31 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 10 of 41 | 24% | 6 of 32 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 15 of 52 | 28% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 18 of 45 | 40% | 10 of 31 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 17 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Joaquin Buckley | 13 of 56 | 23% | 9 of 49 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 51 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Morono | 40 of 90 | 44% | 25 of 71 | 14 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 5 | 11 of 26 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-175), Morono (+145)
Round 1
From one action fight to the next we go, as exciting welterweights Morono (23-8, 1 NC; 12-5, 1 NC UFC) and Buckley (16-6, 6-4 UFC) toe the line in search of another highlight-reel finish. Referee Kerry Hatley will have his hands full, as the match could take place anywhere and end in the blink of an eye. Buckley dances his way to the cage with Beyonce playing, while Morono goes hard with Prong. There is no glove touch to start the fight, and instead Buckley charges like a bull, throwing fists. He ends up grabbing hold of Morono’s legs. Morono pulls his limbs out and returns to striking range, and the welterweights calm down and proceed to measure one another with single blows. Buckley lands a body kick, and Morono splits the guard with a right hand. Morono ducks away from a haymaker and counters with a right hand. Morono catches his man with a right, and Buckley loads up with a right in response to put his man on rubber legs. Morono shakes out the cobwebs and bounces off the fencing, and he chambers a right hand that just misses the forehead. Buckley springs into action with an uppercut, and he spins with a back kick that ends up getting crowded by the Texan. Morono drives a straight right hand after following a jab, and the power punch in response from Buckley grazes off the side of his noggin. Buckley blitzes with a few punches, and Morono is able to parry or avoid them all. A second surge from “New Mansa” also misses the mark each and every time, but Morono does not make him pay for these reckless attacks and instead allows Buckley to hit air. Buckley leaps at him with a knee extended, but Morono is nowhere to be found. Morono hand-fights until putting a right hand on the jaw, and Buckley races after him and tags him right back. Buckley attempts to spin, and Morono’s safe distance disallows it from succeeding. From out of nowhere, Buckley runs at his foe and lifts him off the ground with a double. Morono hits his back and defends with an armbar, and Buckley wriggles his arm out and backs off to escape the guard before upkicks or other submission attempts find him. Buckley lifts him up again, and Morono latches onto a guillotine choke. Buckley ends up slamming Morono down hard to break up the submission, and the energetic round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
At the beginning of the round, Buckley is not quite as wild as before, instead lining up a head kick. The Texan counters him with a picture-perfect right hand that sends Buckley flying, and Buckley scrambles back to his feet. Morono allows him to reset so that he can further trade with his opponent, and Buckley aims a few strikes to the body. Morono looks for a high kick that is feet away from the target, and he leans back from a pair of looping hooks that whiz at him. Buckley lumbers forward and suddenly unloads a few huge hooks, and Morono is out of range in time. Morono aims a front kick down the middle when he expected Buckley will come at him, but Buckley does not bite. Buckley kicks the body, and Morono responds with a kick that slaps him in the posterior and makes Buckley grin. Buckley explodes into a combination that is largely blocked and defended by the Fortis MMA fighter, and when he backs off to measure his man, he drills Morono in the ribs with a stern kick. Morono flicks out a number of jabs, and he leans and ducks a punch so that he can catch Buckley with a right hook on the side of the head. Morono measures and releases a head kick that pounds into the guard, and Buckley kicks him in the body again. Buckley tries to corner his foe with a flurry of punches, but Morono will not have it and backs Buckley off. Buckley whiffs on a kick but lands with a body shot, and he ducks a spinning back fist just in the nick of time. Morono strings a few punches together, gets clipped, and responds with a right. Buckley continues to target the body and head indiscriminately in attacks, keeping Morono guessing and not allowing a pattern to emerge. Buckley digs a left to the body and aims a right over the top, but it is a charging left hook when Morono dodges him that catches Morono. Buckley rushes at his man to jam him up against the fencing, and they trade knees before separating at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 3
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Buckley leads the dance with a series of punches. Commentator Daniel Cormier starts barking when saying that the fighters “need to bring the dog out,” and Buckley lashes out with power strikes that finally find their home cleanly. A left hand from “New Mansa” busts Morono’s lip, and blood immediately trickles out of his mouth. Morono aims counters, but Buckley appears slightly fresher and able to beat his foe to the punch. Buckley runs forward with a looping left hook, and he slams his right fist into the body. Morono backs him off with a front kick, and the kick rams into his cup. Buckley waves off Hatley and does not want to allow Morono to recover. Morono eats several clean shots, and he is taking damage and trying to back off to survive. Buckley lays into him with a number of unanswered body shots and a few to the head, and Morono hits nothing but air when he replies with a right hand. Buckley spins with a wheel kick, and Morono tackles him to the ground. Buckley bursts back to his feet after only a few seconds on his back, and he smashes Morono in the face with a left hand. Buckley hammers his foe with a number of punches to the body and head, and Morono is leaning against the fence and struggling to stay on his feet. Morono shoots desperately for a takedown, and it is a feeble attempt as he falls to his knees. Buckley lets him stand up so that he can punch the Texan in the face again and again. Morono takes a deep breath and starts firing back, but it is a takedown shot that he goes for a full-throated effort. Buckley stonewalls him and pushes Morono to his back, and he lowers himself into the guard to drop down some heavy ground-and-pound. Morono maintains a high guard, and Buckley opens up with several right hands until Morono adjusts. Buckley keeps tightly pressed to “The Great White” to not allow Morono to latch on with a submission, and he sneaks in some ground strikes when he finds openings. Buckley stands up, and lets Morono up with 15 seconds to spare. Morono meanders forward, and he throws everything into one final right hand that ultimately misses and sends him toppling to the mat. Morono rolls to his back, and Buckley returns to the guard to do a little more damage before the final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Buckley (30-26 Buckley)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Buckley (30-27 Buckley)
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Alex Morono via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-26)
Angelo picks Joaquin Buckley because he is the much better striker with more power, speed, and technique. He notes that Alex Morono is well-rounded and underrated but has low takedown accuracy (20%), so he cannot trust him to wrestle. Buckley has decent takedown defense and has faced good wrestlers. Angelo plans to avoid betting on this fight.
Big Brady picks Joaquin Buckley, emphasizing Buckley's significant power advantage over Alex Morono. He notes that Morono is more of a decision fighter and has been hurt more often recently. He expects the fight to stay standing and that Buckley will eventually land a big shot, predicting a third-round knockout.
Cody picks Buckley, citing his speed, athleticism, and ability to land the more impactful strikes. He notes that Morono has taken a lot of damage recently and may be hesitant. Buckley's takedowns and movement should allow him to win rounds, though Cody acknowledges Buckley's history of getting knocked out.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his superior speed, athleticism, and hand speed. He notes that both fighters have suspect chins but Buckley is the better athlete and is dropping to his proper weight class at 170. He expects Buckley's speed and explosiveness to be the difference, though he acknowledges a chance someone gets knocked out.
Lucrative James picks Buckley by knockout in round two or three. He thinks Morono will be winning early but Buckley will figure out his awkwardness and land heavy shots. He compares it to the Ponzinibbio fight where Morono kept getting caught. He likes over 1.5 rounds as well.
Buckley has the power and agility to catch Morono in pocket exchanges. Morono is durable but leaves openings and has been knocked out before. Buckley should land a big shot and finish him. Morono may win minutes but Buckley's power is the difference. Expect a knockout victory for Buckley.
Paul picks Buckley, expecting a close fight that goes to decision with Buckley landing the more damaging strikes. He notes that both fighters are similar in size, which favors Buckley. Paul mentions that Morono has a questionable chin but hasn't been knocked out recently, so he leans toward Buckley by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Alex Morono, predicting a TKO in the second round. He believes Buckley's intention to take Morono's head off will be the difference, as Morono tries to outpoint to a decision. He notes Morono was doing well against Ponzinibbio until he got knocked out in round three, and that Morono's wins haven't aged well. He also mentions Buckley's size and reach advantage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 26 of 89 | 29% | 27 of 90 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| André Fialho | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 36 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| André Fialho | 1 | 16 of 53 | 30% | 17 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Joaquin Buckley | 22 of 51 | 43% | 14 of 42 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 26 of 89 | 29% | 12 of 66 | 9 of 18 | 5 of 5 | 26 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Joaquin Buckley | 8 of 19 | 42% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 10 of 36 | 27% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Joaquin Buckley | 14 of 32 | 43% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| André Fialho | 16 of 53 | 30% | 6 of 37 | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Buckley (-225), Fialho (+190)
Round 1
A welterweight striker’s delight is about to be on display between the power-punching Fialho (16-6, 1 NC; 2-3 UFC) and furious finisher Buckley (15-6, 5-4 UFC). With 24 knockouts across their 31 pro wins, referee Kerry Hatley will need to bring his A-game to the party. Interested solely in trying to knock the other’s block off shortly, they do not share a glove touch. The offense is relatively muted for the first 30 seconds, until Buckley engages with a swift body kick. Buckley attempts a kick on the other side, and Fialho watches him closely without striking back. “New Mansa” skims the top of the head with his shin, and Fialho shakes it off and keeps his arm high to block it. The kicks keep coming from Buckley, and he darts forward with a looping right hand that Fialho turns his face to barely avoid. Buckley throws two punches and a kick, and he spins with a wheel kick. Buckley charges with another spinning kick, and Fialho finally attempts to counter with a check hook. Buckley runs at his foe, throwing fists, and Fialho sits down on his punches to respond. They trade fierce fists, and Fialho kicks Buckley in the head when Buckley is leaned over. The former middleweight eats it like a steak, and he walks forward to throw two booming hooks. Fialho backs him off with a jab, and he dodges a flying knee and a right hand to score a short left when Buckley lands. Buckley explodes into a takedown attempt, dumping the Portuguese fighter to the mat. Fialho is not on the ground for more than a second before climbing back up. Buckley spins without throwing anything, and he absorbs a loud body kick on the way out. Buckley gets tagged on the way forward, and he runs from one side of the cage to the other to deposit Fialho to the canvas. Once more, Fialho works his way up, and he is thrown to the mat right as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Buckley
Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Fialho loops a left hand around the guard and follows it with a body kick that bumps into the cup. Buckley immediately protests as the fight is paused by Hatley, and he takes about 25 seconds before going again. Fialho starts off again with a head kick, and he reaches his foe with a straight right hand. Buckley shakes it off and is tagged once again, and he rushes out with a barrage of inaccurate punches. The two trade punches, with Buckley ending the exchange with a right over the top. Buckley races in with a flying knee, and he wings a right hand and a left that bangs into the temple. Fialho appears no worse for wear, and Buckley kicks up to the same spot but it is blocked. Buckley, in a blitz, reaches Fialho and makes the Portuguese fighter bounce off the wall. Fialho gathers his bearings and lets off another body kick that hits the cup. Buckley shakes it a few times and they get back to trading. Fialho looks to time an advancing Buckley with a right hook, and Buckley attacks awkwardly without a lot of telegraphing to take advantage of. Fialho walks Buckley down with straight punches, but Buckley backs him away before long with a looping right hand and a spinning kick to the ribs. Buckley dances on the outside and sprints in, and he bangs his head into Fialho’s chin. Fialho takes a few seconds to clear his thoughts, and Buckley is on him.
Releasing a vicious head kick that slams square into the ear, Buckley knocks Fialho clean off his feet and down for the count. Fialho, grinning but barely clutching to his consciousness, succumbs to one follow-up right hand with Buckley lording over him that knocks him senseless. Hatley, who considered stopping the fight from the kick itself but waited an extra second, moves in to shove Buckley off of the downed Fialho when that last fist bashes into Fialho’s skull, with that blow arguably a late hit as Hatley had his hands on Buckley at the time.
There will be a question of whether Fialho should have taken some extra time after the clash of heads, but the head kick sealed the deal and then some. Buckley, in his victorious post-fight interview, maximizes his mic time by calling out the UFC sponsor of Prime and the Paul brother that runs it, telling them to sponsor athletes and not just the promotion itself.
The Official Result
Joaquin Buckley def. Andre Fialho R2 4:15 via TKO (Head Kick)
Angelo picks Buckley to win because he has wrestling if needed, better defense, and is faster and more athletic. However, he is wary of betting at -170 since both fighters have been knocked out recently. He suggests waiting for props, possibly 'does not go the distance' if the line is good.
Big Brady picks André Fialho as the underdog to knock out Joaquin Buckley in the first round. He notes both fighters have power and poor durability, but he likes Fialho's early-round danger. He also mentions Buckley is moving down to welterweight after five years, which could affect his performance. He expects a stand-up war and believes Fialho lands the big shot first.
Cody believes Buckley's power and athleticism will be too much for Fialho, who has questionable durability and cardio. He expects Buckley to knock Fialho out, possibly early. He notes Buckley's move to welterweight is a positive and that Fialho's striking defense is lacking.
Connor also picks Buckley, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights that Fialho's indecision and poor chin are major liabilities, and that Buckley's creative striking will cause problems. He notes that Fialho has moments of being a good fighter but is inconsistent, and that Buckley's ability to mix up his attacks will keep Fialho guessing. He also expresses doubt about Buckley's move to welterweight but thinks Fialho is not the fighter to exploit it.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley but notes he missed the better line. He believes Buckley is faster, has better volume, and that 170 lbs is the right weight class for him. He worries about Buckley's tendency to engage in pocket exchanges, where Fialho's power could be dangerous, but thinks if Buckley fights smart on the outside, he can out-volume Fialho. He calls it a 'pure pick' and says he's not interested in betting at -225.
The host picks Joaquin Buckley, expecting a knockout as Fialho fades in later rounds. He notes Buckley's technical boxing and high guard should allow him to crash the pocket and land cleaner punches. He likes the fight doesn't go to decision prop and predicts a round three TKO.
Paul agrees, noting that Buckley's move to welterweight is beneficial and that Fialho's durability is a concern. He mentions that Buckley can be methodical and that the fight could end early. He also likes the under on significant strikes for Buckley.
The MMA Guru sides with Joaquin Buckley, despite praising Fialho's activity. He worries about Fialho's chin and notes he took damage in recent fights without enough time to improve. He believes Buckley is more elusive and has a better chin, and that Fialho lacks one-shot KO power. He expects Buckley to win, possibly by KO, but acknowledges it could go either way if there's a finish.
Zane picks Buckley, noting that despite Buckley's predictable entries and history of getting knocked out, Fialho's inconsistency and poor chin make him vulnerable. He argues that Fialho's confidence breaks easily and he tends to become indecisive, while Buckley's creative combinations and willingness to trade will overwhelm him over time. He also mentions that Fialho has been staggered by relatively innocuous shots.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Buckley but is hesitant, noting that Curtis has only fought grapplers in the UFC and knocked them out, while Buckley has fought strikers with mixed success. He acknowledges Curtis's short-notice loss to Hermansson may be excusable. He plans to wait for prop bets rather than betting the moneyline, comparing the matchup to Wonderboy vs Holland where a striker's true level was revealed.
Big Brady picks Chris Curtis as a dog, citing Curtis's superior durability and volume. He notes Buckley has been knocked out three times and knocked down often, while Curtis has only been knocked out once in 38 fights. He expects Curtis to find Buckley's chin and knock him out in the second round.
Cody picks Chris Curtis, citing his takedown defense (100% in UFC), striking output, and experience. He notes Buckley's low volume and cardio issues, and that Curtis will double his output. He thinks Curtis' jab and right hand will be key, and that Buckley's power is a threat but Curtis can weather it. He expects a decision win for Curtis.
Daniel Levi picks Joaquin Buckley, citing his more varied path to victory. He criticizes Chris Curtis's poor attitude and limited offense outside the pocket. Levi believes Buckley should use movement, kicks, and feints to stay on the outside, and can mix in takedowns to exploit Curtis's historically weak bottom game. He thinks Curtis's only chance is a pocket boxing match, while Buckley can win by striking at range, takedowns, or even a knockout. Levi sees Buckley as the more explosive and versatile fighter.
Lock picks Buckley to get his hand raised, but he wants nothing to do with the fight from a betting or PredictionStrike perspective. He thinks neither guy has a huge ceiling in the UFC, and Buckley's skill set is limited. He notes that Buckley is closer to Curtis in size compared to Curtis's previous fight against Jack Hermansson, but still sees Buckley as a guy who will trade wins and losses without breaking into the top 10.
Paul picks Chris Curtis, noting the plus money and that Curtis should be able to pick Buckley apart at range. He thinks Buckley's power is dangerous but Curtis has the boxing and experience. He is confident in Curtis as a dog.
The MMA Guru picks Joaquin Buckley over Chris Curtis, praising Buckley's underrated striking and athleticism. He notes that Curtis is 35 and relies on counter-wrestling and big shots, but Buckley is elusive and dangerous with head kicks and body kicks. He believes Buckley will out-scrap Curtis over three rounds, possibly winning 30-27 or by TKO, and that Curtis doesn't have the KO power to stop Buckley.
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