vs
+100 +100
UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - T.J. Brown
3.37 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
2.89 SApM
49.0% Str. Def.
3.41 TD Avg
57.0% TD Acc.
36.0% TD Def.
1.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Erik Silva
2.06 SLpM
67.0% Str. Acc.
1.52 SApM
40.0% Str. Def.
3.26 TD Avg
80.0% TD Acc.
60.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
T.J. Brown
Moneyline
BetWay +100
KO/TKO
BetRivers +700
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
FanDuel +320
Erik Silva
Moneyline
DraftKings +100
KO/TKO
BetRivers +550
Submission
BetRivers +310
Decision
FanDuel +500
T.J. Brown - Fight History
LOSS vs Darren Elkins
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:23 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darren Elkins 0 11 of 33 33% 95 of 146 5 of 8 62% 2 1 8:09
T.J. Brown 0 15 of 50 30% 45 of 86 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 11 18% 53 of 80 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:32
T.J. Brown 0 4 of 13 30% 11 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:37
2 Darren Elkins 0 7 of 16 43% 28 of 43 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:49
T.J. Brown 0 9 of 29 31% 32 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 1 0:44
3 Darren Elkins 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:48
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darren Elkins 11 of 33 33% 8 of 29 3 of 3 0 of 1 11 of 32 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 15 of 50 30% 11 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 3 15 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darren Elkins 2 of 11 18% 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 4 of 13 30% 2 of 11 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Darren Elkins 7 of 16 43% 4 of 13 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 9 of 29 31% 7 of 26 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 1
3 Darren Elkins 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 2 of 8 25% 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo leans T.J. Brown despite his suspect takedown defense and chin, because he believes Brown's pressure and grappling will be enough to outwork the aging Elkins. He notes Brown has never been knocked out and expects him to win, but he wants to wait for the line to tighten before betting.

"I am fairly confident that TJ is going to be able to win this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Big Brady picks Darren Elkins for the upset by third-round finish. He notes T.J. Brown has poor fight IQ and takedown defense, and often makes mistakes. He worries about Elkins' age and recent injuries but expects Brown to gas out or make a mistake, allowing Elkins to take over late.

Elkins by finish in round 3
"I'm going to pick Darren alkins for the up set I think TJ Brown probably looks really good early but in TJ Brown fashion I expect him to make a mistake as the fight goes on or gas out"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Cody picks Elkins, arguing that Brown has a history of losing when favored and that Elkins finds ways to win. He notes that Brown fades in later rounds and has poor takedown defense, while Elkins has a grinding style and excellent cardio. Cody believes Elkins can take Brown down and wear him out, especially after the first round.

Live bet on Elkins after first round
"I got Elkins he's the underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown to win inside the distance, expecting him to bite down on his mouthpiece and land big shots early. He notes Brown's speed and power advantage over the aging Elkins, and suggests avoiding the moneyline in favor of the plus money prop. He predicts a first-round stoppage.

Brown wins inside distance +165
"taking him to win inside the distance at plus 165 probably a good way of taking this chalky spot and making a plus money spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Darren Elkins

Paul picks Elkins, citing his toughness and ability to grind out wins. He notes that Brown has a fast start but fades, and that Elkins has fought much tougher competition. Paul believes Elkins' wrestling and cardio will be too much for Brown, and that Elkins can survive the early storm and take over.

Bet Darren Elkins at +160
"I've got Darren Elkins plus 160"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown over Darren Elkins. He praises Brown's performance against Bill Algeo despite the loss, and notes Brown trains with Bryce Mitchell in grappling, so he won't be outwrestled. He criticizes Elkins as a geriatric old man at 39 who has taken too much damage, citing his loss to Jonathan Pearce. He believes Brown is in his prime and can go three hard rounds, winning by decision or big shots.

"I'm going to go TJ Brown over Darren Elkins nothing personal against Darren Elkins but he fights like a geriatric old man these days"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:40 · UFC on ESPN: Holloway vs. Allen · Apr 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 1 64 of 110 58% 77 of 123 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:42
T.J. Brown 0 46 of 91 50% 49 of 94 1 of 2 50% 0 1 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 45 of 85 52% 48 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
T.J. Brown 0 39 of 77 50% 42 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:19
2 Bill Algeo 1 19 of 25 76% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
T.J. Brown 0 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 64 of 110 58% 44 of 81 6 of 13 14 of 16 48 of 94 5 of 5 11 of 11
T.J. Brown 46 of 91 50% 34 of 78 8 of 9 4 of 4 33 of 76 13 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 45 of 85 52% 26 of 59 6 of 12 13 of 14 43 of 83 2 of 2 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 39 of 77 50% 28 of 65 8 of 9 3 of 3 27 of 64 12 of 13 0 of 0
2 Bill Algeo 19 of 25 76% 18 of 22 0 of 1 1 of 2 5 of 11 3 of 3 11 of 11
T.J. Brown 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 12 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 9, 2023 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo picks T.J. Brown as an underdog, citing his high pace, solid striking, and good grappling with almost 4 takedowns per fight. He notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (38%) and that Algeo doesn't use his wrestling offensively. He expects Brown to get takedowns, set the pace, and win a decision. He has a quarter-unit bet on Brown at +140.

quarter unit moneyline bet at +140
"I see TJ getting the takedown set in the pace riding it out on top and getting the win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by submission in the second or third round. He notes Algeo's poor takedown defense but excellent get-up game and scrambling. He expects Brown to have early success with takedowns but tire, allowing Algeo to take over and potentially submit him, as Brown has been submitted before.

submission
"give me algo give me algo by sub I think he finishes Brown later in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Cody notes Algeo's takedown defense is poor (55%) but his cardio and BJJ are excellent. He expects Brown to get early takedowns but fade, allowing Algeo to take over with volume. He sees Algeo winning by decision or late stoppage.

Live bet after first round if Brown takes Algeo down
"bill ljo again and we've mentioned this about a lot of other fights on this card excellent live betting opportunity"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Algeo's strong start doesn't walk him into danger and that Algeo's pressure and range control will allow him to rack up damage early. He also mentions Algeo's height advantage and active kicking game.

"Yeah, I agree. It feels like the kind of fight where Algeo starting strong doesn't walk him into anything dangerous enough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Algeo's unorthodox striking and scrambling ability will be too much for Brown. Brown's path to victory is grappling, but Algeo is hard to hold down and creates scrambles. Algeo's cardio and striking volume should win rounds. Expect a decision, as both are durable and finishes are unlikely.

Over 2.5 rounds
"I think algo wins this fight I think the best way to approach it though could possibly be the over two and a half."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Algeo's cardio and Jiu-Jitsu. He thinks Brown's wrestling will be effective early but he'll tire, and Algeo will take over in later rounds.

"yeah that all makes sense to me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo, citing his unorthodox striking, length, and takedown defense (55%). He believes Algeo will keep the fight standing and outpoint Brown, who relies on wrestling. He notes Brown's recent win over Eric Silva but thinks Algeo's tricky style and output will edge a close fight.

"give me senor Perfecto Bill algio to get the job done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Zane picks Algeo because he starts strong and puts too much information into TJ Brown's computer for him to adjust in time. He notes Algeo's hyper-aggressive style, good kicking game, and height advantage, and believes Brown's slow starts will cost him.

"I am going to pick Algeo here. I just think he is going to start too strong and put too much information in the TJ Brown computer for him to make the necessary adjustments in time."
WIN vs Erik Silva
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:41 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 24 of 38 63% 82 of 109 2 of 7 28% 1 2 9:43
Erik Silva 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 42 3 of 4 75% 0 1 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 29 1 of 6 16% 0 1 3:01
Erik Silva 0 9 of 11 81% 14 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:35
2 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 14 50% 36 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:14
Erik Silva 0 10 of 15 66% 14 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:28
Erik Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 24 of 38 63% 20 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 5 of 6
Erik Silva 21 of 29 72% 12 of 19 6 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 20 7 of 7 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 10 of 14 71% 8 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 5 of 6 0 of 0
Erik Silva 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 10 of 15 66% 6 of 10 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 6
Erik Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.

"I like Eric to bully in this fight I like him to get it to the ground and I like him to control his way to a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.

Silva wins by second round submission
"I gotta go Silva here um I like the grappling of silver the ground a pound of Silva TJ Brown's been knocked out three times he's been submitted three times I think Silva eventually catches him in something in the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.

Under 1.5 rounds (+145)
"I'll probably get some of this like plus 145 to the under one and a half I'll pick Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.

"I think TJ Brown's gonna do good and then he's gonna get dropped and choked out so I'm gonna go with Eric Silver to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.

"I like the TJ Brown side here I don't have a bet on it I don't want to bet it myself like I've never really seen TJ Brown as a super reliable fighter but just taking The Narrative of him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.

"I'm gonna just uh it's basically a pass for now but I'm gonna lean towards Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erik Silva

The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

"I'm gonna go Eric still for getting this one done I think he's going to beat TJ Brown up"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 47 of 79 59% 86 of 121 3 of 6 50% 0 2 7:32
T.J. Brown 0 42 of 99 42% 58 of 125 1 of 2 50% 4 2 2:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 1 22 of 42 52% 30 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:17
T.J. Brown 0 24 of 49 48% 29 of 55 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:05
2 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 5 of 8 62% 17 of 20 1 of 3 33% 0 1 2:47
T.J. Brown 0 2 of 9 22% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:39
3 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 0 20 of 29 68% 39 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 1 2:28
T.J. Brown 0 16 of 41 39% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 2 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 47 of 79 59% 41 of 73 1 of 1 5 of 5 32 of 61 2 of 2 13 of 16
T.J. Brown 42 of 99 42% 30 of 86 9 of 10 3 of 3 36 of 92 3 of 3 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 22 of 42 52% 18 of 38 0 of 0 4 of 4 17 of 37 2 of 2 3 of 3
T.J. Brown 24 of 49 48% 15 of 39 6 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 45 3 of 3 1 of 1
2 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 5 of 8 62% 4 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 6
T.J. Brown 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Shayilan Nuerdanbieke 20 of 29 68% 19 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0 14 of 22 0 of 0 6 of 7
T.J. Brown 16 of 41 39% 13 of 38 3 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Angelo picks T.J. Brown, believing he can win either the grappling or kickboxing exchanges. He notes both fighters have poor takedown defense, so the fight may come down to who shoots first. He worries about Brown's defensive wrestling but expects Brown to initiate and get takedowns, leading to a win.

"i think tj brown gets it done i think he can win the grappling match or the kickboxing match here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by first-round submission. He believes Brown's grappling is superior and that Nuerdanbieke is one-dimensional (wrestling only) with poor takedown defense (33%) and has been submitted six times. He notes Brown's submission skills (arm triangle) and that he nearly submitted Charles Rosa. He warns that Brown's fight IQ and cardio are questionable, but expects an early submission. He calls it a bad matchup for Nuerdanbieke.

Brown wins by submission in round 1
"i think tj brown subs this guy and does it probably early on... i'll say tj brown first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody thinks Brown is the better wrestler and grappler, and has a striking advantage. He notes Nuerdanbieke's poor striking and inability to finish takedowns. He expects Brown to win by decision.

"i got to go tj brown to land the more eye-catching moments and secure himself a decision victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Paul agrees, pointing out Nuerdanbieke's low output and poor takedown stats. He thinks Brown's pressure and striking will look better to the judges.

"i mean those stats for land pretty embarrassing against a guy like sean soriano"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown, citing his training with Bryce Mitchell as beneficial for grappling. He believes Brown will stuff takedowns as Shayilan slows down, and win the second and third rounds via decision. He notes Shayilan's wins are not impressive and he lost clearly to Joshua Culibao.

unanimous decision 29-28 prediction
"i'm gonna go with tj brown here"
WIN vs Charles Rosa
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Prochazka · May 01, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 1 61 of 128 47% 85 of 155 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:38
Kai Kamaka III 0 82 of 211 38% 110 of 243 2 of 4 50% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:45
Kai Kamaka III 0 34 of 88 38% 35 of 91 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 T.J. Brown 1 26 of 49 53% 40 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:44
Kai Kamaka III 0 24 of 69 34% 40 of 87 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:25
3 T.J. Brown 0 13 of 32 40% 22 of 42 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:09
Kai Kamaka III 0 24 of 54 44% 35 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 61 of 128 47% 38 of 100 14 of 17 9 of 11 51 of 115 1 of 1 9 of 12
Kai Kamaka III 82 of 211 38% 54 of 174 19 of 26 9 of 11 77 of 204 3 of 5 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 22 of 47 46% 11 of 34 4 of 4 7 of 9 18 of 43 1 of 1 3 of 3
Kai Kamaka III 34 of 88 38% 17 of 63 9 of 15 8 of 10 33 of 85 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 26 of 49 53% 18 of 40 7 of 8 1 of 1 20 of 40 0 of 0 6 of 9
Kai Kamaka III 24 of 69 34% 19 of 63 5 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 T.J. Brown 13 of 32 40% 9 of 26 3 of 5 1 of 1 13 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kai Kamaka III 24 of 54 44% 18 of 48 5 of 5 1 of 1 20 of 50 2 of 2 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady picks T.J. Brown to win by decision, taking a shot on the underdog. He believes Brown's wrestling and grappling are superior, and that Brown can take Kamaka down and wear him out. Brady notes that Kamaka slows down as fights progress and has poor grappling off his back. He also mentions Brown's full training camp at Glory MMA with James Krause, which he sees as a positive. Brady thinks the line should be closer to a pick'em.

decision win for Brown
"i'm going to take a shot on the dog here i'm going to take tj brown to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody sees T.J. Brown as a live underdog now that he is training with James Krause at Glory MMA. He notes that Brown has a submission game and grappling prowess, but his cardio is a major concern. He thinks if Brown uses a proper game plan and doesn't gas out, he can take down Kamaka and submit him. He points out that Kamaka has looked unimpressive, with losses to low-level opponents and a close win over Tony Kelley. He believes Krause's coaching can help Brown manage his energy and fight smart.

"so uh again i'm going to classify him as live underdog"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

Daniel Levi picks Kai Kamaka III to win, citing his potential as a prospect and the fact that T.J. Brown has a weak chin and poor fight IQ. He notes that Kamaka's last loss was on short notice with a bad weight cut, and that he has since moved to a better training camp. Levi believes Kamaka can outwork Brown if he stays off his back.

"i'm going to pick kakamaka to get this win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

The host picks T.J. Brown by submission, expecting him to take down Kai Kamaka and wear him out. He notes Kamaka's poor cardio and lack of power, while Brown is a grappler who can chain wrestle. He believes Brown will eventually find a submission in the second or third round.

T.J. Brown by submission at +525; also mentions Brown inside the distance at +335 and round 3 prop at +1500
"I like tj brown i think he's gonna outlast kai kamaka hopefully he stretches it all the way to the third round and chokes him up there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Apr 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses both fighters' cardio issues and the difficulty in capping the fight. He mentions that Brown's game falls apart if he doesn't finish early, and that Kamaka has looked poor. He does not commit to a side.

"this one's very difficult to cap because they both got bad cardio so it's like who's bad cardio is going to cost them the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Kai Kamaka III

The MMA Guru picks Kai Kamaka III over T.J. Brown, noting that Kamaka is younger and more committed to his career, while Brown has been beaten eight times and seems to be Bryce Mitchell's sparring partner. He expects Brown to get takedowns in the first round but fade in the later rounds, allowing Kamaka to win the last two rounds and take a 29-28 decision.

"i'm going to be going with kakamaka here he made a mistake in his last fight i feel like he's going to bounce back from that"
LOSS vs Danny Chavez
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Danny Chavez 0 43 of 139 30% 59 of 156 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:03
T.J. Brown 0 49 of 110 44% 52 of 113 4 of 4 100% 0 0 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Danny Chavez 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
T.J. Brown 0 17 of 36 47% 17 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
2 Danny Chavez 0 12 of 45 26% 18 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
T.J. Brown 0 20 of 43 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
3 Danny Chavez 0 19 of 52 36% 29 of 62 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:51
T.J. Brown 0 12 of 31 38% 12 of 31 4 of 4 100% 0 0 1:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Danny Chavez 43 of 139 30% 25 of 103 12 of 24 6 of 12 38 of 132 5 of 7 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 49 of 110 44% 23 of 81 8 of 9 18 of 20 40 of 97 0 of 0 9 of 13
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Danny Chavez 12 of 42 28% 4 of 29 5 of 9 3 of 4 12 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 17 of 36 47% 4 of 21 1 of 2 12 of 13 17 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Danny Chavez 12 of 45 26% 7 of 33 3 of 5 2 of 7 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 20 of 43 46% 13 of 35 4 of 4 3 of 4 14 of 35 0 of 0 6 of 8
3 Danny Chavez 19 of 52 36% 14 of 41 4 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 45 5 of 7 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 3 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 27 0 of 0 3 of 4
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady likes T.J. Brown's wrestling and ground game, expecting him to dominate and possibly get a submission. He notes Brown's chin is a concern but thinks Chavez's ground game is inferior. He would bet if the line gets closer.

first round submission
"i'm going to pick tj brown to win by first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Danny Chavez

Daniel Levi picks Danny Chavez by finish. He notes that T.J. Brown has durability issues, often getting knocked out or submitted even when winning. He believes Chavez's black belt is legit and that he can catch Brown. However, he admits he knows little about Chavez beyond a head-kick knockout and a photo with a black belt. He feels Brown is mentally fragile and prone to getting finished.

Chavez by finish; Brown's durability is questionable; Chavez's black belt is legit
"i have a feeling that he is going to get a knockout i feel like tj brown just can't keep it together ... i'll take chavez by finish"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

The MMA Guru picks T.J. Brown, citing his dangerous grappling and training with Bryce Mitchell. He expects Chavez to come out overzealous looking for a quick finish, which will allow Brown to secure a takedown and control the fight on the ground.

"tj downtown brown dangerous grappler danny chavez explosive knockout striker ... tj downtown brown is gonna take danny chavez downtown"
LOSS vs Jordan Griffin
Technical Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Benavidez vs. Figueiredo · Feb 29, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jordan Griffin 0 15 of 23 65% 20 of 28 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:05
T.J. Brown 0 32 of 47 68% 91 of 119 7 of 7 100% 0 0 7:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jordan Griffin 0 5 of 8 62% 7 of 10 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:05
T.J. Brown 0 18 of 24 75% 56 of 70 4 of 4 100% 0 0 4:30
2 Jordan Griffin 0 10 of 15 66% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
T.J. Brown 0 14 of 23 60% 35 of 49 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jordan Griffin 15 of 23 65% 13 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 17 3 of 3 3 of 3
T.J. Brown 32 of 47 68% 26 of 39 6 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 22 10 of 10 13 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jordan Griffin 5 of 8 62% 5 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
T.J. Brown 18 of 24 75% 13 of 18 5 of 5 0 of 1 2 of 6 7 of 7 9 of 11
2 Jordan Griffin 10 of 15 66% 8 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 2 of 2 3 of 3
T.J. Brown 14 of 23 60% 13 of 21 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 16 3 of 3 4 of 4
Erik Silva - Fight History
Submission R1 2:29 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erik Silva 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Marshall 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erik Silva 0 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Francis Marshall 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 13 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erik Silva 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erik Silva 5 of 9 55% 2 of 6 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Francis Marshall 3 of 5 60% 0 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Francis Marshall vs. Erik Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Marshall (-700); Silva (+500)

Round 1
With three hours to plug through seven prelims, the promotion wastes no time in moving to the next matchup. This one comes at 145 pounds between a pair of gents that could sorely use a victory. Silva (9-3, 0-2 UFC) is winless after two walks to the Octagon, appearing roughly every other year and not building any momentum in the overstuffed division. He meets Marshall (8-3, 2-3 UFC), who was on the wrong end of some of the worst scorecards offered last year. Referee Fernando Salas Navarro receives the assignment, standing back as the athletes touch ‘em up.
Silva says hello with a spinning wheel kick, and Marshall barely gets his guard up in time so as to not get leveled. Marshall has to back off, and Silva spins with a back kick that connects to the body. Marshall pushes off when trying to engage, and his finger jams into Silva’s eye socket. Salas calls time when he recognizes the foul, and he goes to Marshall to tell him to be careful. The Venezuelan takes less than 30 seconds to clear his vision before restarting. Marshall attacks him with looping hooks, using them to close the distance and drop down for a slick double-leg takedown. Silva stands up by wrapping his arm around Marshall’s neck with a guillotine choke, and Marshall mat returns him and even briefly threatens with a Von Preux shoulder choke. Silva turns to his side to try to buck off, but Marshall in half guard keeps him stuck. Marshall settles for smacking Silva around with a few strikes before lowering himself down to pursue an arm-triangle choke, and Silva’s bucking and wriggling keeps him safe for the time being.
Marshall is able to pass to mount, and when Silva turns his back, Marshall immediately snatches up a rear-naked choke. Switching his grip to one of a more brute-force variety, “Fire” Marshall does not even go palm-to-palm as he crushes Silva’s larynx and carotid artery. Silva posts off his left arm and does not fight the grip, instead just biding time before he inevitably taps out.
This speedy finish justifies the massive odds in Marshall’s favor, with this leg in most of your parlays hitting with style points.

The Official Result
Francis Marshall def. Erik Silva R1 2:29 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Francis Marshall

Angelo picks Francis Marshall because he is younger, faster, and a better wrestler than Erik Silva. He notes that both fighters have similar game plans, but Marshall's youth and wrestling advantage give him the edge. He expects Marshall to win everywhere in the fight.

"Super easy pick right out of the gate. We're going to go Francis Marshall here. I think he's better than Eric Silva literally everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Francis Marshall

Big Brady is very confident in Francis Marshall, calling Erik Silva one of the worst fighters on the UFC roster. He notes Marshall was robbed in his last fight against Marian Santos and is facing a massive step down in competition. Brady highlights Silva's poor cardio, especially in elevation, and Marshall's striking power. He predicts a second-round knockout.

second round knockout
"So, yeah, give me Francis Marshall here. ... I think Marshall's going to put it on him and I think he's going to knock out Silva on the feed. ... Give me Francis Marshall to win this fight by a …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francis Marshall

Cody agrees, highlighting Marshall's wrestling and striking advantages. He notes Silva's only path is an early submission, but Marshall's wrestling should neutralize that. He expects Marshall to get back in the win column.

"Marshall's going to get cut if he doesn't pick up a victory here. And this is prime."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Francis Marshall

Connor picks Marshall, noting that Silva has no good sense of position and will get run into the cage. Marshall's high energy and scrambling should win out. Silva is 38 and has never developed a complete MMA game.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"Yeah, Marshall, you know, he's got some problems with the need to do everything and getting sort of being able to be out technique anywhere, but he's a high hustle fighter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)

Daniel does not discuss this fight in the transcript.

DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Erik Silva

The host believes Francis Marshall is the clear better fighter but the odds are too wide to bet on him at -776. He suggests that if you must bet this fight, Erik Silva is the only option because Marshall's implied probability of 89% is too high. However, he notes Silva is not particularly dangerous, has been inactive for two years, and is 38 years old, making it a very bad bet.

"If you do want to bet this fight, you do have to take Mr. Eric Silva because there's no way you can bet Marshall at an implied probability of 89%. But just know it's a very, very bad bet."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Francis Marshall

James favors Marshall due to his youth, wrestling, and improvement, while Silva is older and coming off injury. He predicts Marshall will dominate on the ground and finish via submission or ground and pound.

"Franc's Marshall via submission in round one or round two is going to be my official prediction."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Francis Marshall

The host picks Francis Marshall, noting that Marshall is young (26) and improving, while Silva is 39 and coming off a long layoff and injury. He believes Marshall's grappling defense and superior striking will lead to a finish, possibly by knockout or submission in rounds 2 or 3. He is comfortable parlaying Marshall despite the -700 price.

"I think it's pretty obvious that Marshall being at minus 700 kind of deserves that price tag."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Francis Marshall

Paul expects Marshall to dominate, citing his youth, wrestling, and recent improvements. He notes Silva's age, layoff, and submission-heavy style that likely won't work against Marshall. He sees Marshall as a safe pick.

"I think Francis Marshall absolutely wrecks this guy."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Francis Marshall

The MMA Guru picks Francis Marshall, noting that Marshall has had close fights with tough opponents like Mayra Santos and William Gomis, while Erik Silva has not been tested against quality competition. He believes Marshall's experience and ability to go the distance with better fighters gives him the edge, and he predicts a submission win.

submission
"I'm going to say that Francis Marshall gets this one done. And I think he submits Eric Silva as well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Francis Marshall

Zane picks Marshall because he is a high-hustle fighter who will outwork Silva over the long haul. Silva is 38, has no positional sense, and his disparate skills don't form a cohesive MMA game. Marshall's aggression and scrambling should overwhelm Silva.

Marshall opened at -450, now -725; Silva opened at +350, now +525.
"Marshall is aggressive. He is going to run him into a corner very quickly."
LOSS vs Muhammad Naimov
TKO (leg injury) R1 0:44 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Muhammad Naimov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Erik Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Erik Silva 0 1 of 2 50% 3 of 4 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:11
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Muhammad Naimov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Muhammad Naimov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Angelo picks Naimov as the more well-rounded and dangerous fighter, citing his power and wrestling ability. He notes that Naimov benefited from fouls in his last fight but still believes he should win. He mentions waiting for prop bets on round lines but is confident Naimov gets the job done.

waiting for prop bets on round lines
"naimov is going to be the pick I would say medium level confidence here I'm probably going to wait for some prop bets to see what the round lines look like"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

Big Brady picks Muhammad Naimov to win by TKO in the second round. He notes that Naimov came into the UFC on short notice and pulled off a big upset against Jamie Mullarkey, then beat Nathaniel Wood. He criticizes Erik Silva's performance against TJ Brown, saying Silva gassed out in five minutes and makes mistakes on the ground. Brady believes Naimov can hang in grappling early but will break Silva as the fight goes on due to Silva's poor cardio.

Naimov wins by TKO in round 2
"give me nof here I'll take nof to break Eric Silva in the second round via TKO"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody picks Silva as a PRP pick, noting Naimov's suspect cardio, wrestling, and striking. He thinks Silva can wrestle and take Naimov down, holding him for two rounds. He acknowledges Silva may gas but Naimov will too. He sees value at the plus price and is fading Naimov.

"I fade him and I put Eric Silva as a PRP pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Muhammad Naimov

The host acknowledges the heavy betting line on Naimov (close to -600) but believes Naimov's pure wrestling advantage and aggressive style will overcome any altitude concerns. He expects Naimov to out-grind Silva, who is an early finisher but will be overwhelmed by Naimov's pressure.

Heavy favorite at close to -600
"I don't understand all the heavy love that's coming in on naov pushing him up to a close minus 600 favorite sure he'll have the pure wrestling advantage in this matchup but you got to wonder what the elevation and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation, noting Naimov's suspect cardio and Silva's wrestling but also Silva's age and submission losses. He is not interested in parlaying Naimov and doesn't commit to either side.

"it's a pretty clear dogger pass I'm not interested in parlaying Mohamed naov"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:41 · UFC 282: Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev · Dec 10, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 24 of 38 63% 82 of 109 2 of 7 28% 1 2 9:43
Erik Silva 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 42 3 of 4 75% 0 1 2:35
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 29 1 of 6 16% 0 1 3:01
Erik Silva 0 9 of 11 81% 14 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 1 1:35
2 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 14 50% 36 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:14
Erik Silva 0 10 of 15 66% 14 of 20 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:00
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 10 70% 25 of 31 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:28
Erik Silva 0 2 of 3 66% 4 of 5 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 24 of 38 63% 20 of 33 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 5 of 6
Erik Silva 21 of 29 72% 12 of 19 6 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 20 7 of 7 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 10 of 14 71% 8 of 11 2 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 8 5 of 6 0 of 0
Erik Silva 9 of 11 81% 5 of 7 3 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 5 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 7 of 14 50% 6 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Erik Silva 10 of 15 66% 6 of 10 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 10 70% 6 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 6
Erik Silva 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.

"I like Eric to bully in this fight I like him to get it to the ground and I like him to control his way to a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.

Silva wins by second round submission
"I gotta go Silva here um I like the grappling of silver the ground a pound of Silva TJ Brown's been knocked out three times he's been submitted three times I think Silva eventually catches him in something in the …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.

Under 1.5 rounds (+145)
"I'll probably get some of this like plus 145 to the under one and a half I'll pick Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.

"I think TJ Brown's gonna do good and then he's gonna get dropped and choked out so I'm gonna go with Eric Silver to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.

"I like the TJ Brown side here I don't have a bet on it I don't want to bet it myself like I've never really seen TJ Brown as a super reliable fighter but just taking The Narrative of him …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.

"I'm gonna just uh it's basically a pass for now but I'm gonna lean towards Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erik Silva

The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

"I'm gonna go Eric still for getting this one done I think he's going to beat TJ Brown up"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Angelo picks Erik Silva because he believes Silva's grappling pressure and control will be too much for T.J. Brown. He notes that Brown has poor takedown defense (41%) and makes poor decisions in fights, creating scrambles he can't win. Silva is an aggressive grappler who marches forward and looks to get the fight to the ground, where he controls opponents. Angelo expects Silva to bully Brown and win via control.

"I like Eric to bully in this fight I like him to get it to the ground and I like him to control his way to a win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Big Brady picks Erik Silva, citing Silva's impressive grappling and ground-and-pound, while criticizing T.J. Brown's poor fight IQ and lackluster performances. He notes Silva has faced weaker competition but Brown has been knocked out and submitted multiple times. He expects Silva to catch Brown in a submission in the second round, but admits he is not very confident.

Silva wins by second round submission
"I gotta go Silva here um I like the grappling of silver the ground a pound of Silva TJ Brown's been knocked out three times he's been submitted three times I think Silva eventually catches him in something in the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Cody leans Silva, citing his explosiveness and power. He notes Brown's cardio and durability issues, and that Brown may tire himself out with takedowns. He thinks Silva can exploit Brown's low hands and lack of head movement. He suggests under 1.5 rounds as a prop.

Under 1.5 rounds (+145)
"I'll probably get some of this like plus 145 to the under one and a half I'll pick Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Daniel Levi picks Erik Silva, despite Silva's untested competition. He criticizes T.J. Brown for being prone to getting dropped and submitted, calling him 'not the brightest.' Levi likes Silva's size, ground-and-pound, elbows, and kicks. He notes Silva has been past the first round before. While he wishes he knew more about Silva, he trusts him over Brown, who he says will likely get dropped and choked out.

"I think TJ Brown's gonna do good and then he's gonna get dropped and choked out so I'm gonna go with Eric Silver to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Dec 9, 2022 (1 day before fight)
T.J. Brown

Lock favors T.J. Brown because he is more proven and represents a step up in competition for Erik Silva. He notes that Silva has only finishes on his regional record but may falter against decent competition, showing cardio issues or being unable to handle being the nail instead of the hammer. Lock does not have a bet on it himself, as he doesn't see Brown as super reliable, but from a narrative and PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks Brown has the edge.

"I like the TJ Brown side here I don't have a bet on it I don't want to bet it myself like I've never really seen TJ Brown as a super reliable fighter but just taking The Narrative of him being a tad bit more proven him being a legit …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Dec 7, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erik Silva

Paul leans Silva, noting Brown's inconsistency and the turmoil at Glory MMA. He thinks Silva's power and explosiveness could be the difference, but acknowledges it's a coin flip. He is not confident and considers it a pass for now.

"I'm gonna just uh it's basically a pass for now but I'm gonna lean towards Silva"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erik Silva

The MMA Guru picks Erik Silva over T.J. Brown, arguing that Silva is a step above bottom-level UFC featherweights and has shown good potential. He criticizes Brown for only beating very low-level opponents and barely scraping by, while Silva is more experienced and has a good record. He predicts a decision win for Silva.

"I'm gonna go Eric still for getting this one done I think he's going to beat TJ Brown up"