Career Averages - Jan Błachowicz
Career Averages - Magomed Ankalaev
Jan Błachowicz
Magomed Ankalaev
Jan Błachowicz - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 84 of 149 | 56% | 100 of 173 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 80 of 140 | 57% | 98 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 52 | 48% | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 21 of 44 | 47% | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 25 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 1 | 32 of 51 | 62% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:09 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 | 48 of 84 | 57% | 50 of 86 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 0 | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 84 of 149 | 56% | 56 of 112 | 11 of 17 | 17 of 20 | 74 of 135 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 80 of 140 | 57% | 69 of 127 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 10 | 52 of 96 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 52 | 48% | 13 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 9 of 11 | 25 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 21 of 44 | 47% | 10 of 32 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 9 | 21 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 11 of 13 | 84% | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 32 of 51 | 62% | 32 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 44 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 48 of 84 | 57% | 36 of 68 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 6 | 38 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 11 |
| Bogdan Guskov | 27 of 45 | 60% | 27 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 27 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-135), Guskov (+114)
Round 1
Jason Herzog is the referee. Both men opening cautiously. Balchowicz is working leg kicks early, but Guskov is answering in kind. Guskov sticks a jab then avoids his opponent’s response. Guskov looks hesitant to engage, respecting Blachowicz’s power. The Pole continues to chip away with periodic low kicks. Blachowicz misses a double jab and Guskov briefly rattles him with a counter offering. A heavy jab from Blachowicz connects. They trade leg kicks. Another low kick from the Pole lands. Guskov responds with an inside leg kick. For the majority of the round, it’s been jabs and leg kicks from both men. Balchowicz pressures and lands a two-punch combination, then goes back to the leg kick. Guskov flurries with a combination late in the period. Balchowicz kicks the body before time expires in a slow-paced frame.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz comes out pumping his jab before going back to the low kick. Guskov misses a high kick. Another jab-low kick combination lands for Blachowicz, but that’s when Guskov drops him as the Pole is moving backwards. Guskov dives into top position, where he tees off with ground-and-pound. Blachowicz seems to have recovered, as he attempts a heel hook. Blachowicz eats some more ground-and-pound as a trade-off for the leg lock. Guskov frees himself and looks to punish his foe from above. Guskov grinds his forearm into Blachowicz’s face and then drops some heavy elbows. Blachowicz is covering up, but he’s been split open by the onslaught. A methodical Guskov drops more elbows as he moves into half guard. Another elbow draws a visible grimace from the Pole. Blachowicz is just trying to survive the round by holding Guskov close to him. Another series of elbows land for Guskov as the round draws to a close. Blachowicz will survive, but it was one-way traffic.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Guskov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Guskov
Round 3
The combatants hug at the start of the round. Guskov lands a right hand. Blachowicz targets the legs again, but a quick right hand connects for Guskov in response. Guskov’s left calf is reddened from Blachowicz’s attacks throughout the fight. Blachowicz leaps in and partially lands a left hook. Guskov tags Blachowicz with a couple laser rights, and he’s taking advantage of his speed. Blachowicz plods forward and lands a jab. Another heavy leg kick for the former champ. Another hard right connects for Guskov. Blachowicz is increasing his aggression and he lands some heavy hooks in close. Blachowicz goes back to the leg kick. Guskov seems to have slowed down somewhat in this round. He counters Blachowicz well nonetheless in an exchange. Blachowicz kicks the body. Blachowicz keeps the pressure on and just misses a heavy right hand .The Pole sticks a crisp jab. Guskov’s output is waning down the stretch. Blachowicz lunges in and lands a left hook. Blachowicz is in pursuit and he manages to drop Guskov near the fence in the waning seconds. Guskov gets to his feet and Blachowicz continues to unload until the horn. A great sense of urgency down the stretch from Blachowicz.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (28-28)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz vs. Bogdan Guskov is Declared a Majority Draw (29-28, 28-28, 28-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Jan Błachowicz, noting his experience, Polish power, and solid wrestling. He argues that Jan's recent losses are to elite competition and that he arguably won some of them. He compares the two as similar fighters but gives Jan the edge due to his chin holding up at 42. However, he advises against betting on Jan at -145 due to the risk of Guskov's power.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz despite his age (42), citing his superior striking, volume, durability, cardio, and grappling. He pokes holes in Guskov's wins, noting they came against lower-level opponents. He expects Błachowicz to win by decision, but acknowledges age is a concern.
Cody picks Jan, trusting his chin and experience. He notes that Jan has fought and nearly beaten top competition like Pereira and Ulberg. He believes Jan's wrestling and submission threat will be factors, and he likes Jan by submission at plus 765. He thinks Guskov's wins are over lower-level opponents.
Connor picks Błachowicz, citing his low kicks and jab as effective tools against Guskov's boxing-heavy style. He notes that Guskov was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir, indicating a vulnerability to wrestling, and Błachowicz has strong top control and submissions. Connor acknowledges that Błachowicz has lost speed and the 'Błachowicz blitz,' but believes his range tools and wrestling will be enough. He doesn't want to watch it but wants Jan to win.
Daniel picks Guskov as a dog, acknowledging Jan's technical edge but fearing Jan's age (42) and recent decline. He thinks Guskov's brawling style and power could catch Jan, who may be nearing a drop-off. He notes Jan's calf kicks and takedowns as threats but believes Guskov's youth and momentum make him a live underdog.
Lucrative James argues that Jan Błachowicz is superior in every facet of MMA—striking, grappling, cardio, and fight IQ. He notes Jan's recent close fights against top competition (Alex Pereira, Carlos Ulberg) and his high-altitude training camp. He believes Guskov's only path to victory is an early knockout, but Jan's durability and experience should carry him to a decision win.
The host acknowledges Guskov's rise but believes he will struggle against the more experienced Błachowicz. Despite Błachowicz's age and recent struggles, the host expects him to mix up his game, land takedowns, and possibly secure a submission.
Paul agrees, highlighting Jan's durability and high-level experience. He notes that Jan has gone the distance with champions and has a well-rounded game. He believes Guskov's competition is weak and that Jan will outwork him. He also mentions Jan's submission ability.
The Guru picks Jan Błachowicz over Bogdan Guskov, citing Błachowicz's experience and technical edge. He notes Błachowicz nearly beat Alex Pereira and has faced top competition. The Guru predicts a clear decision or late TKO.
Zane also picks Błachowicz, emphasizing that Guskov's wins have come against a weak run of fighters and that Krylov's chin is gone. He notes that Błachowicz hasn't been finished and has the wrestling to exploit Guskov's takedown defense. Zane believes Guskov's wild boxing style leaves him open to low kicks and takedowns, and Błachowicz's experience and strength will carry him to a decision or submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 59 of 131 | 45% | 59 of 131 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 75 of 157 | 47% | 75 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 18 of 31 | 58% | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 15 of 32 | 46% | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 29 of 60 | 48% | 29 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 67 | 37% | 25 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 0 | 31 of 65 | 47% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 59 of 131 | 45% | 17 of 67 | 10 of 26 | 32 of 38 | 59 of 131 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 75 of 157 | 47% | 19 of 87 | 6 of 15 | 50 of 55 | 74 of 156 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 18 of 31 | 58% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 4 | 14 of 16 | 18 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 15 of 32 | 46% | 2 of 16 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 15 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 16 of 33 | 48% | 6 of 16 | 2 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 29 of 60 | 48% | 6 of 30 | 3 of 7 | 20 of 23 | 28 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 67 | 37% | 8 of 40 | 7 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 25 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Carlos Ulberg | 31 of 65 | 47% | 11 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 18 of 20 | 31 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ulberg (-265), Blachowicz (+215)
Round 1
Marc Goddard will officiate this light heavyweight showdown. Ulberg lands a low kick and a jab as he circles on the outside. Blachowicz lands a leg kick of his own, but Ulberg snaps off a jab. It’s an extended feeling-out process so far. Ulberg with a leg kick followed by a lead left hand. Blachowicz connects with a heavy leg kick. Ulberg lands a front kick down the middle. A low kick from the Pole has an impact on Ulberg. Blachowicz partially lands a high kick. The ex champ continues to chop away at Ulberg’s legs. Blachowicz moves in with a jab and Ulberg circles out. Ulberg is also staying busy with low kicks. Blachowicz’s appear to have more impact. Ulberg sticks a jab just before the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz goes right back to work with the low kicks. Ulberg steps in with a punching combination. Ulberg lands a kick to the body and a low kick, then ducks under a power punch from his Polish opponent. Ulberg with a jab and Blachowicz punches the body. Ulberg with more leg kicks. Blachowicz pressures with a couple of power shots, but Ulberg counters effectively and the Pole stumbles away. They trade again and both land. The action is picking up, and Ulberg lands a knee. More low kicks by Ulberg. Blachowicz responds with a heavy outside leg kick. Ulberg lands a lead hook. Ulberg stays busy chipping away at the legs. Blachowicz with another low kick. A solid jab lands for the Pole. Ulberg ends the round probing at the legs.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg
Round 3
Both men open by attacking the legs, as has been the strategy throughout. Ulberg is first to shoot and he presses his foe into the cage. Blachowicz is too strong and he shrugs it off. Ulberg lands a jab and just misses the mark on a straight right. Another leg kick for Blachowicz. Ulberg answers with a pair of inside low kicks. Blachowicz with a knee and a jab, and Ulberg fires back. Blachowicz charges forward but can’t connect. Blachowicz backs his man up with a jab. But Ulberg returns fire and lands a jab. He follows up with a right hand. Ulberg lands a counter left hook and Blachowicz answers with a body kick. Neither man has been able to separate himself in this fight. Ulberg finds the range on a jab. The Kiwi works the inside and outside of his foe’s leg with kicks. Blachowicz applies pressure down the stretch, but Ulberg might have clipped the Pole with a counter during a final exchange.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Blachowicz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ulberg (29-28 Ulberg)
The Official Result
Carlos Ulberg def. Jan Blachowicz via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
Angelo picks Carlos Ulberg, citing Jan Błachowicz's age (42) and lack of recent wins over light heavyweights. He notes that Jan's wins are mostly over middleweights and his last win was due to a freak injury. He acknowledges Ulberg didn't look great in his last fight but believes he will be too fast and too young. He mentions a text argument with Jacob about this fight.
Brady thinks Blachowicz is old (42), coming off injuries and layoff, and likely not the same fighter. He predicts Ulberg wins by decision. However, he notes the line is silly and if Blachowicz looks healthy without knee sleeves, he might take a small bet on him.
Connor picks Jan, sticking with the old man despite the risks. He argues Jan has been an unsolvable puzzle for most light heavyweights due to his compact defense, counter-punching, and leg kicks. He hasn't seen Jan decline yet and believes his experience and durability will carry him, though he admits the layoff and age are concerns.
The host leans with Ulberg's striking advantage, noting Błachowicz is coming back from injury, a long layoff, and is 42 years old. He expects Ulberg to shut down takedowns, touch him up on the feet, and win on the scorecards.
The Guru confidently picks Jan Błachowicz, despite his age and surgeries, because he believes Błachowicz is a much better striker than Ulberg's previous opponents. He notes that Ulberg struggled against OSP and Devin Clark, while Błachowicz has beaten top competition. He expects Błachowicz to out-strike Ulberg, especially in a three-round fight at sea level, and sees value in Błachowicz as a nearly 3-to-1 underdog.
Zane picks Ulberg, citing Jan's age (42), long layoff, and shoulder injury as major concerns. He believes Ulberg's speed, jab, and improving striking can overwhelm Jan, especially in a three-round fight. However, he acknowledges Jan's durability, leg kicks, and counter-punching make him dangerous, and Ulberg's inconsistency could cost him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 52 of 81 | 64% | 82 of 117 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 2 | 0 | 7:32 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 70 of 92 | 76% | 112 of 138 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 6 of 6 | 100% | 17 of 17 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 4:50 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 12 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 32 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 33 of 47 | 70% | 54 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 33 of 57 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 35 of 42 | 83% | 46 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 52 of 81 | 64% | 41 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 41 of 67 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 70 of 92 | 76% | 26 of 46 | 23 of 24 | 21 of 22 | 62 of 83 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 6 of 6 | 100% | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 20 of 29 | 68% | 15 of 21 | 2 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 33 of 47 | 70% | 13 of 25 | 10 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 28 of 41 | 4 of 5 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 26 of 46 | 56% | 20 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 2 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 35 of 42 | 83% | 12 of 19 | 13 of 13 | 10 of 10 | 33 of 40 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blachowicz (-125), Pereira (+105)
Round 1
The year is 2023, and for the second time in the last several months, there is no light heavyweight champion in the UFC. Once the glamour division, a litany of injuries and vacated belts left the throne unclaimed. This 205-pound clash will not be for the vacant strap, as some had expected, and instead will take place across three rounds. The victor will be sitting pretty for that next available opening, and former kingpin Blachowicz (29-9-1, 12-6-1 UFC) and ex-middleweight champ Pereira (7-2, 4-1 UFC) are positively salivating at the opportunity that awaits the triumphant man tonight. Referee Marc Goddard is on high alert for the next 15 minutes or less, although it has no bad blood so he can breathe a slight sigh of relief. The hulking light heavyweights bump fists, and they swat at one another with quick punches. Blachowicz ducks down in pursuit of a single, and he lifts Pereira’s leg up but cannot hold him down. Pereira keeps his back to the wall and wraps an arm around the neck, and he cinches his other arm around and fastens the grip to make it excruciatingly tight early. The Polish fighter is not remotely concerned, and he re-adjusts himself to drop down low enough to thwart the choke. Blachowicz leans heavily on his man while he doggedly pursues a single, and he uses heel strikes to the back of Blachowicz’ thigh and calf. Blachowicz imposes his weight on his man, and he manages to drag Pereira to the mat. Blachowicz snakes his legs around the waist to get hold of the body triangle, and he is quick to set up a rear-naked choke. The grip is on the chin and not beneath it, so Blachowicz changes his hands to try to slide it in. Pereira hand-fights to stop the choke, but Blachowicz is still on his back with his body lock tight. Blachowicz tries to keep himself leaned against the fence to stop Pereira from sliding him out the back door, and he lands one single strike before looking to put his right arm around the head. The Brazilian keeps himself out of submission danger, and he lowers himself down to puts himself in a worse position than before. Blachowicz gets the choke again, and he nearly flattens Pereira out. Pereira once more protects his neck, so Blachowicz decides to smack him upside the head with any free hand. Blachowicz keeps the lock tight around the waist, even as he cannot get the choke, and he elects to ride out the round in this dominant position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The 205ers do not decide to touch gloves to engage this round, and Blachowicz is in the center of the cage immediately and he backs off to dodge a jab and check a leg kick. Blachowicz jabs the body in response, and Pereira sits down on a low kick. Blachowicz responds in kind, and Pereira gets off a solid body shot. Blachowicz intercepts the kickboxer with a short left hook, and Blachowicz flicks out several jabs. Blachowicz turns his shin to prevent a low kick from getting through, and Pereira marks the body with another straight punch. Blachowicz responds with his own body shot, and they both jab one another. Pereira sweeps the leg with a hard calf kick, and Blachowicz has to take a step to shake it out. Pereira lands another, and Blachowicz steps in with a hard left hook. Blachowicz follows it with a right hand, and Pereira is able to shake it out but overswings and opens himself up. This allows the Polish fighter to secure a double, where he plants Pereira on his back. Blachowicz stays heavy on top and opens up with a few strikes, and “Poatan” responds with a sharp elbow that gets through. Pereira tries to scoot himself to the fence in order to fight his way back to his feet, and he succeeds in getting to a knee and then standing. Pereira sneaks in short knees as Blachowicz continues to press on him, and Blachowicz gives him a stern knee to the solar plexus as he holds on. Pereira suddenly spins out quickly, and he appears the fresher fighter as he tosses out a head kick that Blachowicz barely blocks. Pereira comes at him with a body shot, and Blachowicz responds with a left over the top. Pereira stings Blachowicz with a left hook, and Blachowicz charges with a takedown that fails. Blachowicz backs off when he gets popped with a right, and the two tie up again with 40 seconds remaining. They both get in knees, and Pereira breaks off with two uppercuts and a body shot. Pereira corners his man and starts teeing off on him with short but dangerous shots, and Blachowicz leans back against the fence and is taking damage. Blachowicz responds with one left hook, and he takes a very heavy breath. Pereira lands two right hands, and Blachowicz drops down to shoot in but time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira
Round 3
The body language could scarcely look more different between the two, as Blachowicz is clearly spent while Pereira is psyched up. Both fighters come together to engage in the last round, and Blachowicz lumbers forward kicking low. Blachowicz is just able to avoid a massive uppercut, and the two trade jabs. Pereira batters his foe’s lead calf, which is nastily welted. Blachowicz musters his energy with a pair of punches and a body kick, and Pereira replies with a stern calf kick to the same spot. Pereira jabs the body, and he peppers the lead wheel. Blachowicz blitzes him with a few hooks, and Pereira shrugs at him. Pereira walks down his foe instead of attacking recklessly, and he takes a solid low kick as he come forward. Pereira gives him a jab to think about, and he parries a few punches that come his way. Blachowicz tries to check a kick, and he absorbs a flush right hand to the midsection. Blachowicz huffs and puffs and still reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Pereira beats him to the punch with a few punches right back at him. Blachowicz scores a clean left hand, and he shoots in for a takedown. Pereira stands him up but gets shoved back to the wall, although he is able to stave Blachowicz off. Blachowicz scores a left on the break, and he dings Pereira with another left hand. Blachowicz snaps the head back with a jab, and he charges forward but misses with two strikes. Blachowicz sits down on a leg kick, and the shins crack together. Both men land flush with blows, and Pereira hits the harder of the two and makes Blachowicz nod at him. Blachowicz walks through a left hook and eats a jab to the body, and he races forward swinging hands. Pereira stuffs a takedown, and the Brazilian makes him pay with a few punches. With 45 seconds left in the fight, Blachowicz is able to grab Pereira’s leg and sling him to the mat. When he lands in full guard, Blachowicz sits on top and looks for any energy he has to land strikes. Stacking Pereira up with seconds to spare, Blachowicz drops down hammerfists and concludes the fight on top. This one goes the distance, and it could be an extremely close one depending on how the final round was scored.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz (29-28 Blachowicz)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Pereira (29-28 Pereira)
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Jan Blachowicz via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
Angelo picks Alex Pereira but with hesitation, acknowledging that Jan's takedowns are a threat. He believes Pereira is the more technical striker with possibly more power, and that he will be fine defending takedowns or getting back up. However, he is worried about Pereira's chin after being knocked out three months ago. He is not betting on this fight but will look at props like most significant strikes.
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by second-round submission. He emphasizes Błachowicz's grappling advantage, noting he took down Israel Adesanya and controlled him. He criticizes Pereira's ground game, which looked poor against Adesanya. He hopes Błachowicz fights smart and uses wrestling, but is not 100% sure he will. If he does, it's an easy win.
Cody picks Błachowicz based on the takedown threat, noting Pereira's mediocre takedown defense and Błachowicz's success against Israel Adesanya by taking him down. He believes if Błachowicz gets top control, Pereira won't get up. He mentions the over 2 takedowns prop for Błachowicz. He hasn't bet it but is confident in the pick.
James picks Jan but with low confidence, citing volatility from Pereira's weight jump, recent knockout loss, and Jan's age. He thinks Jan is an underrated striker with good leg kicks and can compete on the feet, but he also notes Jan is hittable with the left hook. He believes Jan's path to victory includes takedowns, but he cannot guarantee Jan will wrestle.
Blachowicz's underrated striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be the difference. He can survive Pereira's power and find his way into the pocket to grind him out. Pereira hasn't faced someone of Blachowicz's size and grappling. I'm leaning Blachowicz by submission late, but not a lot of conviction.
Paul picks Pereira, citing Błachowicz's age (40) and lack of recent wrestling success—only one takedown in his last nine fights (against Adesanya). He argues Błachowicz is not a high-level wrestler and fights at a slow pace, which plays into Pereira's striking. He notes Pereira's training with Glover Teixeira and improved takedown defense. He sees value at plus money.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)
Round 1
In this headliner, the vacant light heavyweight strap is on the line, as champ Jiri Prochazka surrendered it due to a severe shoulder injury. Once expecting to fight three rounds tonight, ex-titleholder Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and the streaking Dagestani wrestle-kickboxer Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC) are now going for five rounds and 10ish pounds of gold. While they are both touted for knockout power, they each post exactly nine knockouts in their respective careers, which account for 31% of the Polish fighter’s victories compared to 53% for the Russian. Whether it all ends by knockout, submission, decision or something else, referee Marc Goddard draws the final charge for this championship contest. The 205-pound challengers – this is a vacant title – stoically refuse to touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and it’s on with the show. Blachowicz moves to the middle of the cage to commence the match, and he backs off when Ankalaev throws a right hand at him. Blachowicz kicks the low calf, and he swats away a jab. Blachowicz sits down on another low kick, and he absorbs a front kick to the breadbasket for his work. Ankalaev jabs at the body, and Blachowicz pursues another calf kick. Ankalaev just misses with a left hand over the top, and he catches Blachowicz with a right hand as the Polish fighter comes at him. Ankalaev measures out with a right hook, and he scoots away before Blachowicz can plunk him with a haymaker. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he backs away when Ankalaev bears down on him with a string of punches. The inside kick from Blachowicz irritates his opponent, and he connects with a right hand over the top that bounces off the forehead. The light heavyweights trade in the pocket, and Blachowicz slides back to rip a kick to the body. Ankalaev fires off a head kick after a lull in the action, but this careens off the guard to little effect. When the Russian tries to give chase, Blachowicz backpedals and evades the blows. Blachowicz sinks in another body kick, and Ankalaev counters him and pushes the ex-champ back with a front kick. The front kick from Ankalaev may be his best weapon, as he gets Blachowicz’ attention every time he lands it. Ankalaev barely ducks a left hook on his way forward, and he slaps a body kick home. Ankalaev checks a low kick, and the two tentatively walk one another down until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The second round opens with a far fiercer exchange, as Blachowicz loads up on punches that miss while Ankalaev chambers and fires off a head kick that skims off the dome. Blachowicz has second thoughts about blitzing, and settles down on a calf kick again. Blachowicz scores a right hand over the top, and he sneaks a left hook around the guard. The Russian sneaks up another high kick, but this too is guarded. The two light heavyweights swing and miss with their kicks, and Ankalaev wings two punches that breeze past the intended target. Blachowicz continues to target the low calf of his adversary, and they clash shins at the same time when kicking. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he darts forward with an uppercut to redden the face of the Russian. Ankalaev loads up on a big right hand, but his straight left is far more accurate. Blachowicz gets in sweeping kick to the shin, and this causes a stumble from Ankalaev, who is wearing it. Blachowicz blasts his man with another kick, and Ankalaev falls over briefly before charging forward, Blachowicz whips a kick to the side, and Ankalaev catches it and pushes forward for a possible takedown. Blachowicz tees off with his leg in the air, keeping his balance and belting Ankalaev with unanswered fists. When Ankalaev releases it and backs away, he changes stances. This prompts Blachowicz to attack the newly front calf, and this takes the sting out of an overhand right from the Russian. Blachowicz does not slow down pounding on the calf, and Ankalaev charges for a takedown. He does not get it before the round ends. and he limps back to his corner in serious pain.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 3
Ankalaev races forward to attack in the third round, and after one landed punch, Blachowicz wrecks his leg once more. Ankalaev wobbles and changes his stance to orthodox, so Blachowicz kicks that other leg. Ankalaev strafes from left to right, pushing out a front kick but getting pushed away from a body kick. Like a lumberjack felling a mighty oak, Blachowicz continues chopping down any leg he can find, and each strike has an appreciable effect. Playing through the pain, Ankalaev wings a huge overhand right that grazes the side of the head, and he rushes forward to throw bombs. No longer willing to sit and get potshotted, Ankalaev steps in to unload with two hooks that Blachowicz eats like pierogis. The Russian continues pressuring forward, but Blachowicz greets him with two leg kicks that nearly down Ankalaev. Ankalaev hops back and considers holding his left leg in the air, only to bite down on his mouthpiece and sling leather. When the blows largely get blocked, he sprints forward for a failed takedown. Blachowicz’ takedown defense holds up and he manages to escape, as Ankalaev kicks him in the chest. Ankalaev eats one more calf kick and walks the former champ down, throwing kicks with both lets. A knee from Ankalaev comes up in the clinch, and Blachowicz groans. Goddard recognizes this and halts the action, as Blachowicz goes to a neutral corner to try to shake it out and adjust his neoprene ankle sleeves. When they resume, Ankalaev re-engages closely to not let Blachowicz kick him again, ending up in the clinch. Ankalaev lifts up a single and dumps Blachowicz to the canvas with 10 seconds to spare, and he gets in two elbows before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Ankalaev’s legs may be swollen and welted, but he is good to go. The Russian sprints forward with a surge of adrenaline to swing hammers, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Blachowicz meets him on the way forward with an uppercut, and he absorbs a knee to the body when Ankalaev clinches him up. Ankalaev keeps tightly pressed on his man while Blachowicz attempts to escape, and they trade knees on the inside. Ankalaev gets short knees off on the inside, thumping up the body of the former champ. Blachowicz bursts to get away, but Ankalaev races ahead and sweeps him off his feet. Ankalaev lands in the guard of his foe, which closes around his waist, but he does not mind as he punches Blachowicz in the face from this position. Ankalaev cannot get enough space to do much damage from his short shots, but he does take the back when Blachowicz turns. Ankalaev considers attempting his first submission in the form of a rear-naked choke, but settles to drum up punches on the side of the head. Blachowicz returns to a knee, and Ankalaev wrestles him right back down. Ankalaev drops down the occasional left hand while he keeps a leg trapped, sitting comfortably in half guard with Blachowicz pinned to his back. Ankalaev grinds until he finds a way to posture up, and then he stands to rain down a few power punches. The round ends before any serious damage comes from this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Round 5
There is a double glove touch and a hug to start off the last round, and Ankalaev shocks his foe shortly after the embrace with a punch salvo. Ankalaev hurts Blachowicz with a barrage of blows, but his real purpose is to put Blachowicz on his back. The former champ tumbles to his back, and Ankalaev happily jumps on top to pick up where he left off. The crowd showers them with boos as they slow down considerably, with Ankalaev holding on from top position while Blachowicz looks for a low-percentage kimura sweep. Ankalaev easily wriggles his arm out, and he takes an arm away and starts pounding on Blachowicz with left hands. Blachowicz responds with no-look elbows, but there is no steam on them as Ankalaev continues to pound on the downed Polish fighter. Ankalaev hammers with punches and elbows, and a few get through as Blachowicz has his right arm trapped. Ankalaev continues to batter Blachowicz, whose eye is busted open from the strikes, and Blachowicz groans loudly either from frustration, injury or exertion. Ankalaev allows his foe to turn to his back so that he can smack him with left hands, and Goddard tells Ankalaev to stay busy. Ankalaev answers with a number of short elbows, and Jan is stuck on his back taking non-fight-ending punishment. Ankalaev continues his methodical ground-and-pound breakdown, and Blachowicz sits up in hopes of break this up. Ankalaev grinds right to the bitter end, and the light heavyweights have left their grueling match in the hands of the judges. They conclude a night that started strong and fell flat in the marquee attractions.
When the scorecards are read, the crowd is baffled and quite upset. The first scorecard went to Blachowicz by a 48-47 tally, the second read 48-46 for Ankalaev, and the third ended up as a 47-47 for a remarkable split draw. The UFC light heavyweight throne remains vacant, and Blachowicz admits in his post-fight interview that he feels Ankalaev won the fight. When Ankalaev speaks, he demands his title in belief that he should have been the victor, and the ultra-honorable Blachowicz interrupts him to again say that the UFC should give the belt to Ankalaev. An apoplectic Ankalaev declares in his post-fight interview that he may not fight in the UFC again, because the judges took the win away from him. With this event in the books, the UFC has one more this year. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Ankalaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (49-46 Ankalaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz is Ruled a Split Draw (47-48, 48-46, 47-47)
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 31 of 71 | 43% | 53 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 27 of 85 | 31% | 61 of 125 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 25 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 52 | 23% | 12 of 52 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 23 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:33 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 5 of 15 | 33% | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 31 of 71 | 43% | 8 of 31 | 9 of 21 | 14 of 19 | 31 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 27 of 85 | 31% | 14 of 60 | 2 of 9 | 11 of 16 | 17 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 25 of 53 | 47% | 7 of 24 | 6 of 14 | 12 of 15 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 52 | 23% | 1 of 32 | 1 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 12 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 10 of 19 | 52% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 15 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 5 of 15 | 33% | 1 of 6 | 2 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 5 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 5 of 14 | 35% | 3 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rakic (-180) Blachowicz (+155)
Round 1
For a probable light heavyweight title eliminator, the lead-up to this fight has been somewhat subdued, but none of that matters once the cage door closes on Blachowicz, Rakic and referee Mark Smith, who draws the final assignment at “UFC Vegas 54.” Both fighters are in orthodox stance. Blachowicz lands a hard calf kick. Blachowicz with a jab and missed right cross, then another low kick. They exchange flurries of punches. Blachowicz with a nice left to the body, but comes away bleeding from over the left eye. Blachowicz lands a low kick and another left to the body, but he is clearly distracted by blood dripping into the eye from that cut. Blachowicz catches Rakic with a right hand that rocks him, and Rakic grabs a body lock for a takedown. He can’t get it, but seems to have recovered as they disengage. Rakic steps inside a body shot and drops for a takedown, but can’t get it. Blachowicz comes up short with a calf kick at the 30 second mark. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
Blachowicz’s cutman has momentarily stopped the bleeding over the left eye, but that will certainly bear close watching as the fight goes on. The former champ lands a glancing low kick. Rakic drops levels for a takedown, and he gets it, hoisting the leg for a big finish, but dives right into a triangle choke. Blachowicz clears the arm and tries to cinch it up, but Rakic escapes and sets up in Blachowicz’s full guard. Blachowicz closes his guard and works to control Rakic’s wrists, while Rakic throws short elbow strikes to the body and head. As the halfway point of the round passes, Blachowicz briefly opens his guard and looks to hip out, but gives up on the attempt. Rakic is heavy on top, chest to chest, staying busy but not doing too much damage. They scoot to the fence and Blachowicz sits up, but Rakic has the legs laced and arms locked behind him. Rakic moves to one side and uses head position to pin Blachowicz’s torso up against the fence. Blachowicz stands just as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 3
Rakic is active with his jab in the opening seconds, reaching out to touch Blachowicz twice and backing him off. Blachowicz steps in and lands a combination, then another Rakic jab dislodges his mouthpiece. He pops it back in, and seconds later he lands an outside low kick to Rakic’s lead left leg.
Rakic steps back and unexpectedly, the right leg buckles under him completely. The Austrian goes down in agony, cradling the stricken limb.
Blachowicz steps in, but sees the fight is over and refrains from inflicting any unnecessary harm. A moment later, referee Smith arrives to wave it off, a surprising and disappointing end to fight that had been building towards something good.
The Official Result
Jan Blachowicz def. Aleksandar Rakic R3 1:11 via TKO (Leg Injury)
Cody leans toward Rakić but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Jan Błachowicz has a good body of work, striking, and takedown ability, but is concerned about a potential neck injury from the Glover fight. He thinks Rakić is young and hungry, but the value isn't there at -195, and he can't pull the trigger on the dog because he believes Jan is damaged goods.
Paul is undecided, calling it a dogger pass. He acknowledges a case for Rakić's wrestling not being tested and Jan's fantastic chin and cardio. He wants to wait for weigh-ins and interviews before making a pick. He leans toward Jan as a live dog if he drags Rakić into deep waters and takes him down multiple times.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 53 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 71 of 93 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 | 0 | 5:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 29 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 51 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 13 of 24 | 54% | 20 of 32 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 1 | 0 | 0:48 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glover Teixeira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 20 of 37 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 39 | 58% | 17 of 33 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Glover Teixeira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 10 of 15 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | |
| 2 | Glover Teixeira | 22 of 37 | 59% | 16 of 31 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Jan Błachowicz | 13 of 24 | 54% | 8 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
At long last, the main event of UFC 267 is here. A Cinderella story himself, Blachowicz (28-8, 11-5 UFC) will look to keep an iron grip on his throne thanks to his renowned Polish power against fellow Cinderellian fighter Teixeira (32-7, 15-5 UFC). It is feel-good story on both counts between the 38-year-old Blachowicz and the 42-year-old former challenger Teixeira, but one will have to lose when it’s all said and done. Referee Marc Goddard is ready for wherever the fight takes him, and the light heavyweights show each other the utmost of respect, touching gloves before throwing down. Blachowicz leads the dance with a thumping leg kick, and Teixeira ducks down after a right hand to fake an ankle pick. Blachowicz does not bite, and instead kicks the lead calf again. Teixeira swarms with a few punches, and he charges in for a double and lifts the champion off the ground before slamming him to the mat. Teixeira, in the center of the cage, is tightly grasped by Blachowicz’ closed guard. Blachowicz holds on to not allow Teixeira to get off much in the way of ground-and-pound, and he sneaks up a short but effective elbow in a defensive blow. Teixeira calmly starts to work some strikes from on top, not forcing anything or allowing Blachowicz to gain any space to kick off or otherwise fight his way back up to his feet. Teixeira utilizes the can opener, grabbing Blachowicz on the back of his neck and wrenching his head up, in an effort to open the guard up. Blachowicz does not appear to appreciate this, but he does not loosen up his guard posture. The challenger hacks down with a few elbows, each of them landing loudly. Blachowicz stays on his back, riding out this position for most of the round without taking a great deal of damage. Teixeira latches on to the can opener one last time, and Blachowicz wriggles his neck free as the horn blares. When they stand up, Blachowicz acknowledges to Teixeira that the Brazilian won that round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Teixeira
Round 2
The second frame begins as Blachowicz is tentative, jabbing out from a distance while not committing to follow-up strikes. Teixeira charges with strikes, and Blachowicz backs away and trips on the outskirts of the cage. When Teixeira ducks into a takedown after eating a body shot, Blachowicz pulls his leg out with all his might to get away. The Polish fighter scores a solid combination to make Teixeira pay for the try, and he dings him with a sharp uppercut. The Brazilian pursues a takedown, but Blachowicz is ready for this one this time, and he turns his foe around on the fence while starting to land some knees. Blachowicz pushes off and aims an uppercut, and he tries to time another when Teixeira shoots. The shots are more telegraphed, and as Blachowicz tries to counter with another uppercut, a looping left hand catches Blachowicz on the side of the head, hurting the champion. Instead of following up with the strikes, he pursues a single, and he manages to wrestle the champ to his back. Unlike the last round, Teixeira does not stay in guard for long, instead passing to mount like a hot knife through butter. Blachowicz eats shots from on top, and he turns over to surrender his back. Teixeira flattens him out instantly, and he grabs hold of a rear-naked choke and is ready to set the hook. Crushing the forearm grip with all his might, the choke does not even go under Blachowicz’ chin, squeezing the jaw like a vice. Knowing his time is up, Blachowicz surrenders and lives to fight another day. Unbelievable! At the age of 42, Teixeira is now a UFC champion, and he is the second-oldest champ in UFC history trailing only to Randy Couture at 45. As he says in his post-fight interview, promises done, and he comes home with the belt. He invites likely challenger Jiri Prochazka to the cage to face off with him, and he hopes to meet him in May. Prochazka does not join him in the Octagon, but he does pose in the crowd, excited for the opportunity. In a final moment of pure inspiration, the new champion tells people to never give up on their dreams. Next week, another pair of belts will be on the line at UFC 268 in New York, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Glover Teixeira def. Jan Blachowicz R2 3:02 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Big Brady picks Jan Błachowicz to win by knockout. He believes Jan is the better striker and will hurt Glover, who is chinny at 42. Glover's path is takedowns, but Jan has excellent takedown defense (only taken down once in last 10 fights). He expects Jan to be calculated and not rush in, eventually knocking Glover out. He references Jan's performance against Adesanya.
Cody agrees Jan wins but disagrees on finish, thinking Jan is more of a decision fighter. He notes Jan's solid takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and cardio. He picks Jan but sees the fight going over 2.5 rounds, possibly a decision. He mentions Jan by decision is +300 but he's not confident in a finish.
Daniel picks Jan Błachowicz to defend his title, citing Jan's improved accuracy, timing, and ability to mix strikes and takedowns. He notes Jan's career turnaround and his wins over top competition like Dominick Reyes and Israel Adesanya. Daniel acknowledges Glover's dangerous ground game and toughness but believes Jan's composure and polish power will lead to a knockout. He emphasizes that Jan is a black belt and won't panic if Glover gets top position.
Błachowicz has Polish power and solid cardio, and he can stuff takedowns. Teixeira is slow and has been hurt in recent fights, relying on takedowns to bail him out. Błachowicz will find a knockout on the feet, likely in the first round.
Paul picks Jan Błachowicz by knockout, citing Jan's 'Polish power' and Glover's compromised chin. He notes Glover has been stunned in recent fights and thinks over five rounds Jan will crack that chin. He mentions the bet is a small play at +100 by KO, not a massive one.
The MMA Guru picks Jan Błachowicz to win by KO in the first round. He notes that Glover Teixeira is 41, takes damage in every fight, and has been dropped multiple times. He praises Błachowicz's takedown defense, finishing instinct, and reach advantage. He contrasts Błachowicz's composed finishing (separating and dropping hammer fists) with other opponents who rushed in and gave up position. He predicts Błachowicz will rock Glover, separate, and finish with hammer fists.
Magomed Ankalaev - Fight History
AJ picks Ankalaev confidently, citing his win over Alex Pereira as evidence of his high level. He dismisses Bogdan Guskov as a lesser opponent, stating 'I don't think he loses to Bogdan Guskov.' The pick is straightforward with no hedging.
AJ picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his veteran savvy, boxing skills, and experience in five-round fights. He questions Bogdan Guskov's cardio and ability to pace himself over 25 minutes, noting Guskov rarely goes past the second round. AJ believes Ankalaev will avoid Guskov's early aggression and either finish him in later rounds or win a decision, showing levels.
Angelo believes Ankalaev is more technically sound and will manage range effectively against Guskov, who is a heavy-handed but limited striker. He dismisses concerns about Ankalaev's chin after the Pereira knockout, attributing it to injury/illness, and thinks Guskov's power is not comparable to Pereira's. He expects a one-sided affair and thinks the odds are not wide enough.
Big Brady picks Ankalaev to win by decision, citing his technical style, defensive responsibility, and ability to win minutes in the clinch and on the ground. He notes Guskov's short notice and vulnerability to takedowns, as seen against Ryan Spann. However, he admits he's not excited about Ankalaev's fights, calling them boring, but acknowledges Ankalaev is a phenomenal fighter who should win outside of a puncher's chance.
James picks Ankalaev as the clear winner, citing his superiority in almost all facets of MMA except maybe punch power. He notes Ankalaev's better striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience, and that Guskov is on short notice moving from a 3-round to a 5-round fight. He predicts a decision win for Ankalaev, acknowledging Guskov's puncher's chance but favoring the more proven fighter.
Ankalaev is a well-rounded striker with good wrestling and cardio. Guskov has holes in his defensive striking and was submitted by Volkan Oezdemir. Ankalaev will pick him apart and set traps, finishing him within two rounds, likely by knockout.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 4 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 28 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 4 of 9 | 44% | 0 of 4 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alex Pereira | 28 of 45 | 62% | 21 of 35 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 33 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing the rematch will be similar to the first fight. He argues that Alex Pereira's narrative about trusting his takedown defense and letting his hands go is flawed because Ankalaev almost knocked him out in the first fight. He also notes that defending takedowns is easier when that's all you focus on, and that Ankalaev now knows he can handle Pereira's power. He expects Ankalaev to win more dominantly.
Big Brady is concerned about Pereira's age (38), potential lack of focus due to newfound wealth and lifestyle, and recent performances. He believes Ankalaev is hungrier and more dedicated. He notes that Ankalaev almost finished Pereira in the second round of their first fight and that Pereira has been hurt multiple times. He predicts Ankalaev wins by third-round knockout.
Connor picks Ankalaev, agreeing with Zane that Pereira's age and the way Ankalaev pressured him in the first fight are key factors. He emphasizes that Ankalaev's ability to make clutch decisions and prevent big swings, combined with Pereira's declining willingness to take risks, makes Ankalaev the likely winner. Connor also notes that Pereira's back-foot game is not strong enough to counter Ankalaev's pressure.
The host expects a more violent and aggressive Pereira, which could work for or against him. He likes the under 3.5 rounds and believes Ankalaev will catch a reckless Pereira and knock him out, replicating the previous fight's success.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev, believing his wrestling, boxing, and mental focus will be key. He notes Pereira's difficulty with southpaws and the likelihood that Ankalaev improves his takedown efficiency. He predicts a finish in the championship rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev because he believes Pereira's age and stylistic progression have made him more cautious and less willing to pull the trigger. He notes that Ankalaev is adept at steering fights and maintaining a narrow lead, and that Pereira struggled to create offense when pressured in their first fight. Zane also mentions that Ankalaev has never been knocked out and has a good chin, though he acknowledges Pereira's power is always a threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 0 | 76 of 137 | 55% | 97 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 94 of 180 | 52% | 127 of 224 | 0 of 12 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 16 of 34 | 47% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 9 of 27 | 33% | 12 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 21 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 40 | 42% | 18 of 41 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 23 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 24 | 79% | 45 of 61 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 3:50 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 0 | 14 of 21 | 66% | 15 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:22 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alex Pereira | 76 of 137 | 55% | 11 of 57 | 17 of 25 | 48 of 55 | 69 of 130 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 94 of 180 | 52% | 36 of 112 | 30 of 39 | 28 of 29 | 75 of 159 | 19 of 21 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alex Pereira | 16 of 34 | 47% | 0 of 11 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 18 | 16 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 9 of 27 | 33% | 1 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 9 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alex Pereira | 18 of 36 | 50% | 3 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 13 | 18 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 29 of 53 | 54% | 18 of 40 | 9 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alex Pereira | 21 of 34 | 61% | 4 of 16 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 15 | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 40 | 42% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alex Pereira | 7 of 12 | 58% | 0 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 24 | 79% | 7 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 6 | 7 of 11 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alex Pereira | 14 of 21 | 66% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 8 | 14 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 36 | 55% | 5 of 17 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 14 of 30 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-258), Pereira (+210)
Round 1
In March, Ankalaev (20-1-1, 1 NC; 12-1-1, 1 NC UFC) claimed the throne most expected he would sit atop by outworking Pereira (12-3, 9-2 UFC). After about seven months to prepare for the second engagement, the light heavyweight champs run it back, this time with “Poatan” as the challenger. Violence is expected to be the currency of the main event, and referee Herb Dean will be its banker. The two players are all in, and despite a bit of bad blood blossoming, they do bump their sizeable fists together. Time to spin the wheel.
Pereira rushes right out of his corner to hurl a one-two at the champion, and Ankalaev backs off and pushes off three front kicks to the chest. Pereira marches Ankalaev down, keeping him against the wall as he slaps a kick off the front leg. Ankalaev gains a little space from a swatting combination, and a second misses the mark when Pereira parries. The Brazilian works the other front leg after Ankalaev switches stances, and he clubs Ankalaev with a massive right hand. Ankalaev shoots desperately, his bell rung, and Pereira bowls him over and pounces on top of him. Pereira starts laying into Ankalaev with punches and elbows, and he jackhammers the Russian with devastating 12-to-6 elbows. Dean is paying close attention but observes Ankalaev blocking the majority of the blows so he sits back. Pereira is not about to slow down, knowing that Ankalaev is at least rocked or at best in grave danger. The fired-up “Poatan” batters and brutalizes the sitting champ, crushing him with elbows to the body and finalizing his journey with one last barrage of downward elbows. Dean steps in, and Pereira motions with both hands to the downed Ankalaev like he did in a past triumph, the “chama” version of “you see what happens, Larry!” Pereira goes to embrace his corner, and he checks on his toes that might have sustained some damage in the roughly 80 seconds of demolition.
The crowd goes wild, clearly having picked a side in this dispute and it was not the Russian. “Poatan” has the belt draped around his waist by matchmaker Mick Maynard and not UFC chief Dana White, and he puts his hand to his ear to drink in Bruce Buffer’s victory announcement. “Vengeance is never a good thing,” Pereira admits, even as he exacts revenge on a man that beat him earlier this year. He has handed Ankalaev his first defeat via strikes, and he declares that he was not surprised, mister falcons. Rather than call out former two-division champ Jon Jones, Pereira asks if the audience can give Arthur Jones, recently deceased brother of Jon Jones, a moment of silence. The entire T-Mobile Arena silences itself in an instant, giving Jones’ family and loved ones the respect they deserve. Just like that, the Ankalaev era is over, and Pereira already has a few challengers lined up in the form of Carlos Ulberg and possibly Jiri Prochazka—although the latter has already lost twice to him. The party begins, with Pereira and his crew at Teixeira MMA & Fitness dancing in the Octagon to celebrate the spectacular triumph. When Pereira defends his new belt, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alex Pereira def. Magomed Ankalaev R1 1:20 via TKO (Punches and Elbows)
Connor picks Pereira because he trusts Pereira's durability and defensive instincts, and believes Pereira's pressure and willingness to punch in the pocket will force Ankalaev out of his comfort zone. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of complacency and inconsistency, and that Pereira's jab and combination punching are poison for counter punchers like Ankalaev. Connor acknowledges that Ankalaev has the tools to win but is not trustworthy.
Lucrative James believes Ankalaev's wrestling advantage is the key factor. He notes that Ankalaev has been wrestling since childhood, while Pereira's grappling is a clear weakness. He argues that if Ankalaev uses his wrestling consistently, he will dominate from top position and win the fight. He also mentions that Pereira's hype has driven the line to a pick'em, but he sees Ankalaev as the rightful favorite. He acknowledges Pereira's elite striking and power, but thinks Ankalaev's low-paced kickboxing style minimizes danger and allows him to set up takedowns.
Zane picks Ankalaev despite his inconsistency, believing that the threat of Pereira's power will force Ankalaev to take risks and finally put together a complete performance. He notes that Ankalaev has the technical ability to trouble Pereira, especially with his southpaw right hook and counter punching, and that he has historically risen to the occasion when pressured. However, Zane admits it's a feast-or-famine pick and that Pereira is the smarter choice.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 55 of 114 | 48% | 75 of 142 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:31 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 53 of 117 | 45% | 59 of 123 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 34 | 55% | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 23 of 50 | 46% | 24 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 30 | 43% | 32 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 55 of 114 | 48% | 20 of 72 | 22 of 29 | 13 of 13 | 50 of 105 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 53 of 117 | 45% | 10 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 34 of 40 | 50 of 111 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 34 | 55% | 7 of 19 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 22 of 45 | 48% | 4 of 24 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 17 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 23 of 50 | 46% | 8 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 8 | 23 of 49 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 19 of 43 | 44% | 3 of 24 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 14 | 18 of 41 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 30 | 43% | 5 of 20 | 7 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 22 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Aleksandar Rakić | 12 of 29 | 41% | 3 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-345), Rakic (+275)
Round 1
Austria has dual representation on the lineup, a rarity among UFC cards let alone ones that take place in the Middle East and not Europe. Russian title challenger Ankalaev (18-1-1, 1 NC; 10-1-1, 1 NC UFC) will try to grind, smash and press towards another crack at gold, but standing in his way is a recovered Rakic (14-4, 6-3 UFC). While Rakic is riding the first losing streak of his career, and has not won in over three years, he still serves as a solid test that Ankalaev has not already passed at the depleted light heavyweight ranks. Joining them in the cage will be referee “Shaolin” Vitor Ribeiro, who gets things started as the combatants decide against touching gloves. Ankalaev opens up wildly, hurling a huge left hand, only to slow down when Rakic fires a head kick at him. Ankalaev responds with a body kick, and they trade kicks to varied targets. Rakic comes up short with a right hand, and they hand-fight in alternating stances. Body kicks land with thumps on one another, and Rakic doubles up on it and tries to catch a low kick. Ankalaev digs another kick to the ribs, and Ribeiro asks for the fighters to close their fists. They don’t. Rakic chains a right hand into a head kick, and he scoots away when Ankalaev bears down on him. Ankalaev reaches his target with a straight left hand, and Rakic sits down on an inside low kick to retaliate. Ankalaev put a few fists on the midsection, keeping his guard up to block the inevitable head kick. Rakic scores a low kick and is punched in the face for his effort, and he times a head kick that nearly splits the guard. Ankalaev goes after a body kick after he leans back to dodge a punch, and Rakic chips away at the lead leg effectively. Ankalaev stalks him down, protecting his face when Rakic punches and kicks his way. Rakic kicks the front leg on the inside and outside, and Ribeiro keeps telling the fighters to close their hands to no avail. Ankalaev gets countered with a right hand over the top, and he eats a jab after landing his own left. Rakic beats on the guard with his shin, and he whiffs on a haymaker as Ankalaev comes up close. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rakic
Round 2
Rakic picks up right where he left off, feeding Ankalaev a steady diet of leg kicks. Ankalaev crashes the pocket and turns to smack Rakic in the face with a clever up-elbow, and Rakic wears it well. Both men whiff punches, and Ankalaev’s head kick grazes the beard. Rakic reaches out with a right hand, and he jabs the body with the ball of his foot. Rakic splits the guard with a solid right, and he leans back to bash Ankalaev in the face with an intercepting left. Ankalaev reaches his target with punches to the head and body, and he ends as labored combination with a body kick. Ankalaev jabs his way in, but a left to the body is his best blow, as Rakic keeps a solid poker face but might be hurt. Rakic backs off and measures with distant strikes, and the crowd works into a lather in support of the Russian, who is landing cleaner. Ankalaev digs a left to the body and fires off a head kick that is blocked just in time, and he strings a few punches together to get Rakic’s attention. Rakic snaps out several more low kicks, reddening and welting his opponent’s front leg, but not seemingly compromising him. Ankalaev’s forward movement results in a clinch, and he pushes the Austrian to the wall and holds on. They both swing fists at the break but miss the mark, and Ankalaev rushes after him and tags his foe with a straight left. Ankalaev stabs the torso with a left hand, and he has a left hook brush past the top of Rakic’s dome. Rakic kicks high to get blocked, and he looks for a right hand on the inside as time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Round 3
The fighters get going immediately, trading hands and feet without fear of reprisal. Ankalaev lunges with a left hand, snapping the head back and whiffing on a follow-up right. High kicks from both men bounce off the other’s guard, and Rakic backs off and spins with a back fist as Ankalaev is after him. Ankalaev slams his foot in the liver of his opponent, and Rakic comes up hitting air on the counter. As Rakic lands a right hand, sweat flies, and Ankalaev responds with a left that makes more fly off his opponent. Rakic digs for a body shot and leans back to avoid a huge hook, and Ankalaev walks him down and busts him in the chops with a scooping left hook. Rakic backs off and absorbs a second cleanly, and he gets on his bike and strafes to the side. Rakic suddenly shoots for a single, and Ankalaev hops back to the wall to keep his balance and set his limb down. Rakic transitions to a single on the other side, and he succeeds in leaning against Ankalaev but can do little else with his wrestling. Ankalaev turns his man about in the clinch, working the body with punches and knees until Rakic surges into action and spins him about. Ankalaev plants a solid knee on the torso, and he measures another as Rakic leans over. Ankalaev puts knees on the body as Rakic gains enough space to dirty box, and the Russian holds him tight until the slow-paced contest comes to a merciful conclusion—with neither looking like a strong threat to claim the throne of Alex Pereira.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (29-28 Ankalaev)
The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev def. Aleksandar Rakic via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev as the first leg of his 'villain parlay' with a full unit bet. He acknowledges Ankalaev is a good kickboxer with wrestling, but he dislikes him and hopes the parlay loses. He thinks Ankalaev should win because Rakić is coming off two losses and hasn't won since 2021, and Ankalaev has the technical striking and wrestling advantage.
Big Brady slightly favors Ankalaev but thinks the fight will be close and competitive. He expects the striking to be competitive and the fight to go to decision. He notes that Ankalaev has a path to victory via wrestling, as Rakić hasn't faced many wrestlers in the UFC. He calls the line 'kind of dumb' but picks Ankalaev to win a close decision.
Cody picks Magomed Ankalaev, stating he is the uncrowned champion of the division and should roll over Rakić. He notes that Rakić hasn't looked good since 2019, has been knocked out in his last two fights, and lacks durability and volume. Cody believes Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be too much, and that he will be motivated to make a statement to earn a title shot.
Connor picks Rakić, mainly because he wants Ankalaev to suffer and because Rakić is a more powerful striker with better fundamentals. He notes that Ankalaev tends to fight at a slow pace and rely on his wrestling, but often doesn't use it. Connor believes Rakić's jab and counter-punching could give him an edge in a kickboxing match.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, citing his superior hands and ability to capitalize on Rakić's tendency to exit the pocket with his chin up. He expects Rakić to have early leg kick success but believes Ankalaev will make adjustments and either win by knockout or a 29-28 decision. Vreeland notes that Ankalaev is on a 12-fight unbeaten streak and that Rakić has been underwhelming despite his physique.
Lucrative James picks Magomed Ankalaev to win but is hesitant due to Ankalaev's poor fight IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev is the better all-around fighter with grappling upside, but his low volume and lack of power could lead to a close decision. He sees value on Rakić as an underdog and expects a split decision type fight. He is not confident enough to bet on Ankalaev at -360 odds.
Ankalaev's overall game is too much for Rakić. Many expect a grapple-heavy approach, but Ankalaev may unleash his striking to catch Rakić off guard, leading to a knockout victory. This would help him overcome the 'boring' label and earn a title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev, agreeing that he is the best in the division and that Rakić is not a top-five fighter. He points out that Rakić has been outworked and knocked out in his recent fights, and that Ankalaev's wrestling and striking will be decisive. Paul also mentions that Ankalaev needs to put his foot on the gas to impress the UFC.
The Guru picks Ankalaev by decision, despite acknowledging Rakić's technical skills. He believes Ankalaev's pressure and clinch work will wear on Rakić, and that Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to secure rounds. He notes that Rakić has struggled to finish opponents and that Ankalaev's boxing will become more effective as the fight goes on. The Guru also mentions that the odds are too wide in Ankalaev's favor, suggesting Rakić offers value as an underdog, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev via 29-28 decision.
Zane did not make a pick for this fight. He criticized the matchup as boring, noting both fighters are consistent, risk-averse range strikers who favor high-percentage low-power strikes. He expressed disappointment that the UFC booked this fight knowing their styles, and predicted Ankalaev will likely get a title shot anyway due to lack of other options.
Zane picks Ankalaev, expecting a slow-paced kickboxing match where Ankalaev edges out a decision. He acknowledges Rakić's power and technique but thinks Ankalaev will control the tempo and win a close fight, as he has done before. Zane is not confident but sees Ankalaev as the likely winner.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 39 of 58 | 67% | 39 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 24 of 71 | 33% | 26 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 17 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 1 | 22 of 25 | 88% | 22 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 9 of 21 | 42% | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 39 of 58 | 67% | 8 of 22 | 6 of 7 | 25 of 29 | 38 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 24 of 71 | 33% | 2 of 34 | 3 of 6 | 19 of 31 | 24 of 71 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 17 of 33 | 51% | 2 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 17 | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Johnny Walker | 15 of 50 | 30% | 2 of 26 | 2 of 5 | 11 of 19 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 22 of 25 | 88% | 6 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 12 | 21 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Johnny Walker | 9 of 21 | 42% | 0 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | 9 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, expecting him to avoid Johnny Walker's wild strikes, clinch, and take him down to wear him out. He notes Ankalaev's wrestling backup and thinks he is desperate for a win. He finds the -500 odds too steep to bet given Walker's danger and Ankalaev's recent no-contest and draw.
Big Brady believes Ankalaev can win however he wants, but prefers the wrestling path. He notes Ankalaev's durability and wrestling are superior, while Walker is chinny and unpredictable. He expects Ankalaev to control the fight and win by decision, avoiding prolonged striking exchanges.
Cody picks Ankalaev to win by decision, noting that Ankalaev won the first fight and can mix in wrestling for cage control. He believes Ankalaev is faster and has a better gas tank, and that Pereira is 38 and unlikely to make major adjustments. He expects another close fight but edges it to Ankalaev.
Cody picks Ankalaev despite acknowledging his tendency to make fights closer than necessary. He notes that in the brief first fight, Walker had nothing for Ankalaev and that Ankalaev is clearly the more skilled fighter. He believes Ankalaev will win even if he fights a stupid game plan, citing durability and overall skill advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Magomed Ankalaev to defeat Johnny Walker. He acknowledges Ankalaev's well-rounded skill set and size, but notes he sometimes underwhelms. He believes Ankalaev will make adjustments after the first fight, where Walker targeted his legs. Vreeland is confident Ankalaev can get the job done wherever the fight goes, though he worries about Walker's athleticism and unorthodox attacks.
James picks Ankalaev to win via KO, citing that Ankalaev hurt Pereira in round two of their first fight and nearly knocked him out. He believes Pereira's chin may give out this time, and Ankalaev could also secure takedowns and dominate on the ground. James notes that Pereira's calf kicks were effective in the first fight but thinks Ankalaev may have adjusted. He also likes the under 4.5 rounds.
Magomed Ankalaev is a smooth, technical striker who is comfortable in both stances and has a strong clinch and wrestling game. He showed in the first fight that he could take Walker down and control him. Johnny Walker is on a three-fight winning streak and looks confident, but he has historically struggled against technical fighters and can be overwhelmed by grappling. Ankalaev's discipline and wrestling should allow him to neutralize Walker's power and grind out a decision. The over 1.5 rounds is a good play given Ankalaev's grappling approach.
Paul picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights close. He notes that Ankalaev has the skills to beat anyone but often ignores the wrestling path to victory. He believes Ankalaev is durable enough to take Walker's big shots and will win even if he fights a stupid game plan.
Paul leans towards Ankalaev but acknowledges the fight is close. He notes that Pereira took rounds off and that Ankalaev's wrestling, even if not successful, gave him cage control. He thinks the line is too wide and prefers the decision prop for Pereira, but ultimately sticks with Ankalaev.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as an underdog, citing Walker's finishing ability and reach advantage (82 inches vs 75). He notes that Ankalaev may be frustrated by recent events (draw with Jan, no-contest with Walker) and that Walker got back up quickly from a takedown in the first fight. He predicts Walker will get a TKO/KO, benefiting from Ankalaev's potential emotional state.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 16 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:06 |
| Johnny Walker | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 19 | 68% | 7 of 13 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 |
| Johnny Walker | 14 of 27 | 51% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 10 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Magomed Ankalaev, calling him one of the best light heavyweights. He thinks Ankalaev will slow the pace and fight his fight. He notes Johnny Walker's danger if he makes it ugly, but expects Ankalaev to earn a title shot. He considers Ankalaev a safe bet.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision, though he expects a boring fight. He notes that Ankalaev has good wrestling, as seen against Jan Blachowicz, and that Johnny Walker struggled on the ground against Nikita Krylov. Brady believes Ankalaev will mix in takedowns, control Walker, and win a dull decision.
Cody picks Ankalaev, emphasizing that he should use his wrestling to neutralize Walker. He notes that Ankalaev has excellent wrestling and ground control, and that Walker is inconsistent and can be taken down. Cody believes that even if Ankalaev fights to his opponent's level, he should edge out a decision or get a finish. He also mentions the Abu Dhabi factor favoring Ankalaev in a close fight.
Daniel picks Magomed Ankalaev to win, acknowledging Ankalaev's superior technical skills and experience but expressing concern that he sometimes fights down to his competition. He notes Ankalaev's vulnerabilities, such as being dropped by Thiago Santos and leg kicks from Jan Błachowicz, and thinks Johnny Walker's leg kick game plan could be effective. However, he believes Ankalaev is on a different level and should win if he is aggressive, but he is not confident enough to bet at -350.
Ankalaev is one of the most complete fighters at 205 lbs, with high-level striking and wrestling. He can mix in takedowns to wear on Walker's cardio and slow him down. Walker is explosive but when unable to set the pace, he slows down and gives up positions. Expects Ankalaev to win a decision and earn another title shot.
Paul picks Ankalaev but is hesitant, noting that Ankalaev often fights to the level of his competition and has had close fights with lesser opponents. He worries that Ankalaev may not use his wrestling early and could get into a striking match where Walker's reach is an advantage. However, Paul believes Ankalaev's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi location give him the edge in a close decision.
The MMA Guru picks Johnny Walker as a big underdog, citing a feeling that Walker will finish Ankalaev in a weird way. He notes Walker's 7-inch reach advantage and wild style that Ankalaev hasn't faced recently. He recalls Ankalaev being dropped by Thiago Santos and thinks Walker's takedown defense is underrated. He believes Ankalaev doesn't use his grappling unless losing and that Walker's momentum and size will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 55 of 117 | 47% | 79 of 141 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 78 of 184 | 42% | 191 of 312 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 11:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 14 of 35 | 40% | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 23 of 43 | 53% | 23 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 13 of 37 | 35% | 23 of 47 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 18 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 48 | 37% | 40 of 70 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 55 of 70 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:32 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 13 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 18 of 37 | 48% | 54 of 82 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jan Błachowicz | 55 of 117 | 47% | 19 of 71 | 11 of 17 | 25 of 29 | 50 of 109 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 78 of 184 | 42% | 49 of 139 | 19 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 50 of 134 | 6 of 8 | 22 of 42 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jan Błachowicz | 14 of 35 | 40% | 3 of 20 | 4 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 14 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 19 of 43 | 44% | 10 of 28 | 7 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 19 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jan Błachowicz | 23 of 43 | 53% | 10 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 12 | 18 of 36 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 13 of 37 | 35% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jan Błachowicz | 17 of 34 | 50% | 5 of 19 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 48 | 37% | 10 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | |
| 4 | Jan Błachowicz | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 6 | |
| 5 | Jan Błachowicz | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Magomed Ankalaev | 18 of 37 | 48% | 18 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 35 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)
Round 1
In this headliner, the vacant light heavyweight strap is on the line, as champ Jiri Prochazka surrendered it due to a severe shoulder injury. Once expecting to fight three rounds tonight, ex-titleholder Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) and the streaking Dagestani wrestle-kickboxer Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC) are now going for five rounds and 10ish pounds of gold. While they are both touted for knockout power, they each post exactly nine knockouts in their respective careers, which account for 31% of the Polish fighter’s victories compared to 53% for the Russian. Whether it all ends by knockout, submission, decision or something else, referee Marc Goddard draws the final charge for this championship contest. The 205-pound challengers – this is a vacant title – stoically refuse to touch gloves to seal the cage around them, and it’s on with the show. Blachowicz moves to the middle of the cage to commence the match, and he backs off when Ankalaev throws a right hand at him. Blachowicz kicks the low calf, and he swats away a jab. Blachowicz sits down on another low kick, and he absorbs a front kick to the breadbasket for his work. Ankalaev jabs at the body, and Blachowicz pursues another calf kick. Ankalaev just misses with a left hand over the top, and he catches Blachowicz with a right hand as the Polish fighter comes at him. Ankalaev measures out with a right hook, and he scoots away before Blachowicz can plunk him with a haymaker. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he backs away when Ankalaev bears down on him with a string of punches. The inside kick from Blachowicz irritates his opponent, and he connects with a right hand over the top that bounces off the forehead. The light heavyweights trade in the pocket, and Blachowicz slides back to rip a kick to the body. Ankalaev fires off a head kick after a lull in the action, but this careens off the guard to little effect. When the Russian tries to give chase, Blachowicz backpedals and evades the blows. Blachowicz sinks in another body kick, and Ankalaev counters him and pushes the ex-champ back with a front kick. The front kick from Ankalaev may be his best weapon, as he gets Blachowicz’ attention every time he lands it. Ankalaev barely ducks a left hook on his way forward, and he slaps a body kick home. Ankalaev checks a low kick, and the two tentatively walk one another down until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 2
The second round opens with a far fiercer exchange, as Blachowicz loads up on punches that miss while Ankalaev chambers and fires off a head kick that skims off the dome. Blachowicz has second thoughts about blitzing, and settles down on a calf kick again. Blachowicz scores a right hand over the top, and he sneaks a left hook around the guard. The Russian sneaks up another high kick, but this too is guarded. The two light heavyweights swing and miss with their kicks, and Ankalaev wings two punches that breeze past the intended target. Blachowicz continues to target the low calf of his adversary, and they clash shins at the same time when kicking. Blachowicz continues his work on the lead leg, and he darts forward with an uppercut to redden the face of the Russian. Ankalaev loads up on a big right hand, but his straight left is far more accurate. Blachowicz gets in sweeping kick to the shin, and this causes a stumble from Ankalaev, who is wearing it. Blachowicz blasts his man with another kick, and Ankalaev falls over briefly before charging forward, Blachowicz whips a kick to the side, and Ankalaev catches it and pushes forward for a possible takedown. Blachowicz tees off with his leg in the air, keeping his balance and belting Ankalaev with unanswered fists. When Ankalaev releases it and backs away, he changes stances. This prompts Blachowicz to attack the newly front calf, and this takes the sting out of an overhand right from the Russian. Blachowicz does not slow down pounding on the calf, and Ankalaev charges for a takedown. He does not get it before the round ends. and he limps back to his corner in serious pain.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 3
Ankalaev races forward to attack in the third round, and after one landed punch, Blachowicz wrecks his leg once more. Ankalaev wobbles and changes his stance to orthodox, so Blachowicz kicks that other leg. Ankalaev strafes from left to right, pushing out a front kick but getting pushed away from a body kick. Like a lumberjack felling a mighty oak, Blachowicz continues chopping down any leg he can find, and each strike has an appreciable effect. Playing through the pain, Ankalaev wings a huge overhand right that grazes the side of the head, and he rushes forward to throw bombs. No longer willing to sit and get potshotted, Ankalaev steps in to unload with two hooks that Blachowicz eats like pierogis. The Russian continues pressuring forward, but Blachowicz greets him with two leg kicks that nearly down Ankalaev. Ankalaev hops back and considers holding his left leg in the air, only to bite down on his mouthpiece and sling leather. When the blows largely get blocked, he sprints forward for a failed takedown. Blachowicz’ takedown defense holds up and he manages to escape, as Ankalaev kicks him in the chest. Ankalaev eats one more calf kick and walks the former champ down, throwing kicks with both lets. A knee from Ankalaev comes up in the clinch, and Blachowicz groans. Goddard recognizes this and halts the action, as Blachowicz goes to a neutral corner to try to shake it out and adjust his neoprene ankle sleeves. When they resume, Ankalaev re-engages closely to not let Blachowicz kick him again, ending up in the clinch. Ankalaev lifts up a single and dumps Blachowicz to the canvas with 10 seconds to spare, and he gets in two elbows before the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Blachowicz
Round 4
The championship rounds have arrived, and Ankalaev’s legs may be swollen and welted, but he is good to go. The Russian sprints forward with a surge of adrenaline to swing hammers, and he punches his way into a single-leg entry. Blachowicz meets him on the way forward with an uppercut, and he absorbs a knee to the body when Ankalaev clinches him up. Ankalaev keeps tightly pressed on his man while Blachowicz attempts to escape, and they trade knees on the inside. Ankalaev gets short knees off on the inside, thumping up the body of the former champ. Blachowicz bursts to get away, but Ankalaev races ahead and sweeps him off his feet. Ankalaev lands in the guard of his foe, which closes around his waist, but he does not mind as he punches Blachowicz in the face from this position. Ankalaev cannot get enough space to do much damage from his short shots, but he does take the back when Blachowicz turns. Ankalaev considers attempting his first submission in the form of a rear-naked choke, but settles to drum up punches on the side of the head. Blachowicz returns to a knee, and Ankalaev wrestles him right back down. Ankalaev drops down the occasional left hand while he keeps a leg trapped, sitting comfortably in half guard with Blachowicz pinned to his back. Ankalaev grinds until he finds a way to posture up, and then he stands to rain down a few power punches. The round ends before any serious damage comes from this position.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev
Round 5
There is a double glove touch and a hug to start off the last round, and Ankalaev shocks his foe shortly after the embrace with a punch salvo. Ankalaev hurts Blachowicz with a barrage of blows, but his real purpose is to put Blachowicz on his back. The former champ tumbles to his back, and Ankalaev happily jumps on top to pick up where he left off. The crowd showers them with boos as they slow down considerably, with Ankalaev holding on from top position while Blachowicz looks for a low-percentage kimura sweep. Ankalaev easily wriggles his arm out, and he takes an arm away and starts pounding on Blachowicz with left hands. Blachowicz responds with no-look elbows, but there is no steam on them as Ankalaev continues to pound on the downed Polish fighter. Ankalaev hammers with punches and elbows, and a few get through as Blachowicz has his right arm trapped. Ankalaev continues to batter Blachowicz, whose eye is busted open from the strikes, and Blachowicz groans loudly either from frustration, injury or exertion. Ankalaev allows his foe to turn to his back so that he can smack him with left hands, and Goddard tells Ankalaev to stay busy. Ankalaev answers with a number of short elbows, and Jan is stuck on his back taking non-fight-ending punishment. Ankalaev continues his methodical ground-and-pound breakdown, and Blachowicz sits up in hopes of break this up. Ankalaev grinds right to the bitter end, and the light heavyweights have left their grueling match in the hands of the judges. They conclude a night that started strong and fell flat in the marquee attractions.
When the scorecards are read, the crowd is baffled and quite upset. The first scorecard went to Blachowicz by a 48-47 tally, the second read 48-46 for Ankalaev, and the third ended up as a 47-47 for a remarkable split draw. The UFC light heavyweight throne remains vacant, and Blachowicz admits in his post-fight interview that he feels Ankalaev won the fight. When Ankalaev speaks, he demands his title in belief that he should have been the victor, and the ultra-honorable Blachowicz interrupts him to again say that the UFC should give the belt to Ankalaev. An apoplectic Ankalaev declares in his post-fight interview that he may not fight in the UFC again, because the judges took the win away from him. With this event in the books, the UFC has one more this year. We will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Ankalaev)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (49-46 Ankalaev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ankalaev (48-47 Blachowicz)
The Official Result
Magomed Ankalaev vs. Jan Blachowicz is Ruled a Split Draw (47-48, 48-46, 47-47)
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 46 of 79 | 58% | 64 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:26 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 18 of 36 | 50% | 21 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 23 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 0 | 26 of 38 | 68% | 41 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:51 |
| Anthony Smith | 0 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 5 of 13 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Magomed Ankalaev | 46 of 79 | 58% | 31 of 60 | 6 of 9 | 9 of 10 | 23 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 32 |
| Anthony Smith | 18 of 36 | 50% | 6 of 21 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 7 | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Magomed Ankalaev | 20 of 41 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Anthony Smith | 13 of 23 | 56% | 3 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Magomed Ankalaev | 26 of 38 | 68% | 22 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 31 |
| Anthony Smith | 5 of 13 | 38% | 3 of 10 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev to win by decision. He acknowledges Ankalaev's low volume but praises his power and defensive soundness. He doubts Smith can take Ankalaev down and notes Smith is hittable. He expects Ankalaev to win comfortably but not look like a -600 favorite unless he finishes early.
Cody picks Ankalaev but expresses concern about his ring IQ and tendency to make fights harder than necessary. He notes that Ankalaev has a history of not using his wrestling enough, standing with opponents and getting clipped. He thinks if Ankalaev sticks to takedowns, he wins easily, but he's not sure he will. He calls it a potential lock but worries about Ankalaev's decision-making. He also notes that Smith is crafty and has good cardio.
Daniel picks Ankalaev to win, but notes the fight depends on Smith's approach. If Smith is content to survive, it will be a boring decision for Ankalaev. If Smith pushes the pace, it could be exciting with a finish on either side. He acknowledges Ankalaev's counter-striking style and power, but says Smith needs to take risks to win. He expects Ankalaev to piece Smith apart over three rounds if Smith doesn't engage.
Preet picks Ankalaev by decision and likes the over 2.5 rounds, expecting Ankalaev to slow the fight with clinch and takedowns, grinding out Smith. He notes Ankalaev's ability to make adjustments, as seen against Krylov, and that Smith's pressure could make it exciting but ultimately Ankalaev's discipline wins. He avoids the moneyline at -560.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting that he is the best guy at 205 pounds and has an easy path to victory by taking Smith down repeatedly. He acknowledges that Ankalaev sometimes makes fights harder by standing, but he expects him to win. He mentions that Smith's takedown defense has always been an issue and that Ankalaev should stick to the game plan. He also notes that the -600 price is wide but that's the price you have to pay.
The MMA Guru predicts Magomed Ankalaev wins by 29-28 or 30-27 decision. He expects a lackluster fight where Smith may win the first round but then shells up as Ankalaev chops the legs, lands ground-and-pound, and controls the later rounds. The Guru notes Ankalaev's patience and Smith's inability to create offense.
Expert Picks (9)
Angelo is very confident in Ankalaev, calling him the most complete fighter in the division with methodical, technical striking and wrestling. He believes Błachowicz's only chance is to land a big shot in close range, but Ankalaev's length, accuracy, and control will prevent that. He considers Ankalaev at -255 incredible value.
Big Brady picks Magomed Ankalaev, citing his wrestling as the key difference. He notes Błachowicz has poor getup game once taken down, and Ankalaev will mix in takedowns to win rounds. He expects a competitive but boring fight on the feet, with Ankalaev winning by decision. He expresses disappointment in the matchup.
Cody picks Ankalaev, believing he is better in all facets and the number one guy in the division. He notes Ankalaev's high fight IQ, cardio, durability, and ability to adapt to opponents. He thinks Jan is older and his body is deteriorating, citing the Glover fight where Jan tapped quickly to a neck crank. Cody sees Ankalaev winning inside the distance, possibly in rounds 3-5, as Jan fades.
Connor picks Błachowicz as a flyer, believing Ankalaev will wait too long to wrestle, which could be fatal against a striker as good and defensively sound as Błachowicz. He notes Błachowicz's jab, footwork, and counterpunching will trouble Ankalaev, and that Ankalaev's single-strike approach plays into Błachowicz's hands. However, he acknowledges Ankalaev could dominate if he wrestles early.
Daniel Levi picks Magomed Ankalaev to win the vacant light heavyweight title. He emphasizes Ankalaev's patient, risk-averse style that frustrates opponents and his southpaw stance with a nasty counter right hook. Levi notes that Jan Błachowicz tends to attack in a straight line, which plays into Ankalaev's counters, and that Ankalaev can mix in takedowns from his Greco-Roman background. He acknowledges Błachowicz's power and body kicks but believes Ankalaev is defensively sound enough to avoid big moments and will win a decision, likely 4-1. Levi placed a 2-unit bet on Ankalaev at -250.
Lock is confident in Ankalaev, having bet him as his lock of the week at -255. He believes Ankalaev is that much better than Błachowicz and will rule the light heavyweight division for years. From a PredictionStrike perspective, he thinks $5.26 is not too late to buy in, as Ankalaev has longevity and could reach $8-9 after defending the belt. He recommends holding onto the stock long-term rather than selling immediately.
Paul picks Ankalaev, noting he is a minus 255 favorite and that he believes Ankalaev is better in all facets. He struggles with Ankalaev's tendency to fight safe and not always press for finishes, making it hard to bet props. He thinks Ankalaev wins but is not confident in the moneyline at that price, considering a parlay or prop instead.
The MMA Guru picks Magomed Ankalaev over Jan Błachowicz by decision. He believes Ankalaev will be patient at range, use front kicks and jabs, and mix in takedowns after making Błachowicz hesitant. He notes Ankalaev's experience over five rounds and his ability to drain opponents, predicting a 49-46 decision where Ankalaev loses the first round but dominates later rounds.
Zane picks Ankalaev, citing his durability, patience, and power. He believes Ankalaev will find a moment to take Błachowicz down and win three rounds, as Błachowicz has historically struggled against takedown artists. Zane trusts Ankalaev to be consistent enough to capitalize on opportunities.
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