UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024 · Middleweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 2"
Reach 78"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 33
Height 5' 10"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 185 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Abusupiyan Magomedov
3.07 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.43 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
2.61 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
100.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Brunno Ferreira
3.77 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
3.91 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.25 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
61.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Abusupiyan Magomedov
Moneyline
FanDuel -154
KO/TKO
FanDuel +230
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
BetWay +500
Brunno Ferreira
Moneyline
Caesars +140
KO/TKO
FanDuel +270
Submission
BetRivers +1150
Decision
FanDuel +800
Abusupiyan Magomedov - Fight History
LOSS vs Joe Pyfer
Submission R2 1:46 · UFC 320 · Oct 04, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 12 91% 18 of 21 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:36
Joe Pyfer 1 6 of 10 60% 13 of 18 0 of 4 0% 2 0 2:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 12 91% 16 of 19 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:36
Joe Pyfer 0 1 of 3 33% 2 of 5 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:44
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 0 of 0 --- 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Joe Pyfer 1 5 of 7 71% 11 of 13 0 of 0 --- 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 8
Joe Pyfer 6 of 10 60% 6 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 12 91% 6 of 7 5 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4 0 of 0 8 of 8
Joe Pyfer 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Joe Pyfer 5 of 7 71% 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 4
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 28, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Angelo picks Joe Pyfer despite his negative attitude, believing Pyfer is better than Abusupiyan Magomedov everywhere: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He notes both fighters fade, but Pyfer hits harder and has better skills. He thinks the odds are a discount because of Pyfer's personality, but he is confident in the pick.

"I got to pick him. And I'm like super confident here. I think these odds are a discount because Joe Piper is everything Aboose thinks he is, but a little better."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Big Brady is confident in Joe Pyfer, noting his power from the Kelvin Gastelum fight where he dropped Gastelum multiple times. He believes Abusupiyan Magomedov gets hurt easily and has poor cardio. He thinks Pyfer's power will lead to a first-round knockout.

Joe Pyfer by first round KO.
"Give me Joe Pyer. Give me Joe Piper by first round KO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov out of spite for Pyfer, but also because he believes Magomedov is the smarter pick for a decision win. He notes that Magomedov's game is shallow but consistent, and if Pyfer doesn't finish early, Magomedov's ability to frustrate with long-range strikes and takedowns will likely lead to a win. Connor considers it a coin flip but leans toward Magomedov's consistency.

"I just decided I'm going to pick Obus Magomedov out of a rapidly grown supply of spite for Joe Piper."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2025 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov is seen as overlooked and a better all-around fighter on paper. If he survives Pyfer's early power, his striking and grappling should lead to a decision win.

"I believe that Magomedov is being overlooked in this matchup. On paper, I think he's a better all-around fighter... Look for Magomedov to grind this fight out and win it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

The MMA Guru picks Joe Pyfer, despite concerns about his calf kick defense. He notes Abus Magomedov's poor cardio and tendency to get sloppy, while Pyfer's conditioning and power should prevail. He predicts a second-round KO.

second-round KO
"I'm going to go with Joe Pyfer to get this one by second round KO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 2, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Joe Pyfer

Zane picks Pyfer but with hesitation, acknowledging that Pyfer's first-round dynamism could lead to a quick finish. However, he notes that if Pyfer doesn't finish early, he tends to run out of ideas and become discouraged, while Magomedov is more consistent and can frustrate him over three rounds. Zane considers it a coin flip but sticks with Pyfer due to his explosive potential.

"I came in ready to pick Piper just for that first round dynamism. So I'm going to stick with it."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Pereira 0 73 of 168 43% 74 of 169 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 78 of 134 58% 83 of 140 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Pereira 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 18 of 31 58% 23 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
2 Michel Pereira 0 25 of 58 43% 26 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 24 of 46 52% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Michel Pereira 0 41 of 90 45% 41 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 36 of 57 63% 36 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Pereira 73 of 168 43% 27 of 90 27 of 50 19 of 28 72 of 166 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 78 of 134 58% 53 of 99 19 of 29 6 of 6 72 of 128 3 of 3 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Pereira 7 of 20 35% 0 of 4 4 of 9 3 of 7 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 18 of 31 58% 10 of 23 5 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 26 2 of 2 3 of 3
2 Michel Pereira 25 of 58 43% 7 of 28 8 of 17 10 of 13 25 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 24 of 46 52% 14 of 30 8 of 14 2 of 2 24 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Michel Pereira 41 of 90 45% 20 of 58 15 of 24 6 of 8 40 of 88 1 of 2 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 36 of 57 63% 29 of 46 6 of 10 1 of 1 35 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Angelo picks Michel Pereira, believing his athleticism and power will overwhelm Abusupiyan Magomedov. He notes that Abus is hittable and Pereira hits hard, and that Pereira should replicate Bruno Ferreira's success but without letting up. He is more confident now than in his initial breakdown, though he cautions about Pereira's cardio.

Odds tightening; may hold off if it goes to even money
"Michelle should beat the [__] out of this guy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Big Brady picks Michel Pereira, dismissing his loss to Anthony Hernandez as irrelevant since Hernandez would do the same to Magomedov. He criticizes Magomedov's poor cardio and durability, noting he slows down after the first round. He expects Pereira to win by knockout, possibly in the second round.

second round knockout
"Give me Michelle Pereira to get back on track. I'll take Pereira to win this fight. I'll say he wins it by knockout. I'll say second round knockout for Michelle Pereira."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Connor picks Pereira because he is a much more evolved and athletic fighter compared to Magomedov, who has a limited game based on a one-two and top control. Pereira has shown growth and patience, and his speed and power will be too much for Magomedov's robotic striking. Connor notes that Magomedov's wins have aged poorly and he has been exposed by any decent fighter.

"Michelle Padera is an actually very good fighter who has learned a lot and evolved a lot over time, an incredible athlete."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Michel Pereira

The host likes Pereira's explosivity, athleticism, and power to shut down Magomedov's grappling, and expects Pereira to force a break and get a second or third round TKO.

TKO in round 2 or 3
"I think his explosivity, athleticism, and power will shut down the grappling game of Momedov... I think Pereira will force him to break eventually getting that second or third round TKO."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov as an underdog. He criticizes Pereira's cardio and lack of MMA training, saying he gasses if he doesn't finish early. He notes Magomedov's improvements in grappling and cardio, and his reach advantage. He expects Magomedov to weather Pereira's early storm and win a decision, possibly chopping up Pereira's leg.

"I'm going with Abbas Magamemedov as an underdog. I think Abbas Magdov got a ton of [__] for not looking good against Strickland and also gassing out in that fight. But since then he has shown improvements."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Michel Pereira

Zane picks Pereira, emphasizing that Magomedov's game is one-dimensional and relies on size and pressure. Once a fighter is good enough to test him, Magomedov falls apart. Pereira has the speed and skill to counter Magomedov's takedowns and striking. Zane also notes that Magomedov's losses have aged well but his wins have not, and he is essentially a 'quadruple A' fighter.

"I trust put it at this point to come out the other side of a rough start or whatever, and there's not that much depth to Maga Madoff's game at all."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:14 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 26 of 59 44% 45 of 81 4 of 8 50% 1 0 3:36
Brunno Ferreira 0 29 of 71 40% 36 of 83 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 23 34% 21 of 37 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:14
Brunno Ferreira 0 20 of 42 47% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 4 of 7 57% 10 of 15 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:22
Brunno Ferreira 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 26 of 59 44% 10 of 40 8 of 11 8 of 8 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 2
Brunno Ferreira 29 of 71 40% 20 of 59 9 of 12 0 of 0 26 of 65 1 of 2 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 14 of 29 48% 4 of 17 5 of 7 5 of 5 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 12 16% 0 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 23 34% 3 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 2
Brunno Ferreira 20 of 42 47% 16 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 37 0 of 1 2 of 4
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 7 of 17 41% 4 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.

Watching line movement tracker for better value on Ferreira as the dog.
"Brunno f is going to be the pick low confidence I'm going to be watching the line movement tracker keeping an eye on it see if I can get even better value."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.

second round submission
"I'll say abua met off to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.

"I'm going to take a small play on him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.

"I was thinking he's like, uh, he's like a portion of Gilbert Burns is striking without any of the other stuff to back it up. Yeah. Short little stocky power puncher who like, yeah, he just doesn't have anything else …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.

first-round knockout
"I'm gonna go with Bruno to come out here and upset him via starch again"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.

"Abus Mega Med off uh definitely my Play Here wouldn't shock me if he subbed him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.

"I'm taking F especially if he wants to stri with him then I I will take the hul here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.

Magomedov wins by knockout
"look for magov to win this fight by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.

"I think I'm going to go with a boost"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.

"I'm going to go with Brunno Ferreira because in my mind I'm thinking if it all goes good for either of them each of them are going to have a chance to win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.

"fajeta is he's got great power but the rest of his game just doesn't exist"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.

"I think it could be wider than that. I know Avus is a bit of a glass cannon and you know, he's been shown up by fighters like Kyle Baha'o and Sean Strickland and even Lewis Taylor at one point, …"
WIN vs Warlley Alves
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 22 of 44 50% 98 of 168 6 of 7 85% 0 0 11:56
Warlley Alves 0 16 of 38 42% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 9 of 20 45% 30 of 57 3 of 3 100% 0 0 3:30
Warlley Alves 0 8 of 24 33% 8 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 15 53% 48 of 76 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:15
Warlley Alves 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 5 of 9 55% 20 of 35 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:11
Warlley Alves 0 5 of 7 71% 6 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 22 of 44 50% 15 of 32 7 of 11 0 of 1 9 of 27 2 of 2 11 of 15
Warlley Alves 16 of 38 42% 7 of 26 4 of 4 5 of 8 16 of 37 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 9 of 20 45% 5 of 13 4 of 6 0 of 1 5 of 15 2 of 2 2 of 3
Warlley Alves 8 of 24 33% 4 of 17 3 of 3 1 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 15 53% 8 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 10
Warlley Alves 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 5 of 9 55% 2 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Warlley Alves 5 of 7 71% 2 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 5 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo believes Abusupiyan Magomedov is the better striker with wrestling as a backup, and that Warlley Alves' best days are behind him. He notes that Alves has power and BJJ but is not as skilled as Magomedov's previous opponents. He thinks Magomedov is worth his -240 price tag and may be decent value, but warns that Alves is always dangerous with his power.

"I do think aboose is actually worth his minus 240% price tag and is probably decent value at this point"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody acknowledges Magomedov's cardio issues but sees this as a perfect bounceback fight. He notes Alves has lost as a favorite multiple times and has poor cardio himself. Magomedov has world-class skills and looked great against Sean Strickland in the first round. Cody believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be enough to outwork Alves, who is not a natural middleweight.

"Give me a boost to get the job done and get back on track."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Magomedov is dangerous early but slows down, as seen in his last fight. Alves is a nasty kicker with veteran experience who can be competitive in deeper waters. If Alves survives the early onslaught, he can open up finishing opportunities in the second or third round by knockout or submission. The line is too wide, making Alves worth a shot.

Inside the distance by knockout or submission for Alves.
"I'm going to lean with Alvis here and I think that he'll provide enough resistance to magov to cause magov to slow down and that could open up some finishing opportunities for Alves in the second or third round by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul notes Alves is a career welterweight moving up, and his cardio has always been suspect. He believes Magomedov's wrestling and striking will be too much, especially if he manages his cardio better than in previous fights. Paul expects Magomedov to catch Alves late in the first or second round.

"Abis seems like the rifle favorite in my opinion."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by TKO over Warlley Alves. He acknowledges Magomedov's recent struggles but believes his size, reach, and power will be too much for Alves, who is coming off a KO loss. He notes that Alves tends to kick a lot and may engage in a kicking battle, which favors Magomedov. He expects a first-round TKO.

TKO
"I'm going to go with abis magedov winning this fight by TKO"
LOSS vs Caio Borralho
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Caio Borralho 1 51 of 103 49% 70 of 126 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:17
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 38 of 107 35% 39 of 110 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Caio Borralho 0 11 of 25 44% 11 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 7 of 33 21% 7 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Caio Borralho 0 21 of 42 50% 21 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 20 of 49 40% 20 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Caio Borralho 1 19 of 36 52% 38 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:17
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 11 of 25 44% 12 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Caio Borralho 51 of 103 49% 33 of 73 11 of 15 7 of 15 50 of 102 0 of 0 1 of 1
Abusupiyan Magomedov 38 of 107 35% 19 of 74 14 of 24 5 of 9 38 of 107 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Caio Borralho 11 of 25 44% 5 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 9 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 33 21% 5 of 24 1 of 4 1 of 5 7 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Caio Borralho 21 of 42 50% 13 of 29 6 of 8 2 of 5 21 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 20 of 49 40% 8 of 33 9 of 13 3 of 3 20 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Caio Borralho 19 of 36 52% 15 of 29 4 of 6 0 of 1 18 of 35 0 of 0 1 of 1
Abusupiyan Magomedov 11 of 25 44% 6 of 17 4 of 7 1 of 1 11 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Angelo gives a slight lean to Borralho, expecting him to wrestle and get takedowns. He acknowledges Magomedov is a powerful striker and that Borralho has looked vulnerable in fights. He does not bet on this fight, considering Borralho a potential parlay buster. He notes that if Magomedov was fraud checked by Strickland, then Borralho should win easily.

no bet, Borralho could be a parlay buster
"I am going to pick Kyo because he's at home he I think he can I can 100% count on him to try to wrestle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Big Brady picks Caio Borralho to win by submission in the third round. He notes that Abus Magomedov has cardio issues, gassing after the first round against Sean Strickland. He believes Magomedov will win the first round but then fade, allowing Borralho to take over with takedowns and submissions. He also mentions Magomedov took the fight on short notice and is traveling to Brazil.

"give me Kyle B to win this fight I think he mixes in the takedowns where's on Abu medov and submits him in the third round there"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

Daniel Levi picks Caio Borralho, citing his intelligent fighting style, elite Jiu-Jitsu under Damien Maia, and consistent performances. He notes that Borralho has shown holes in his game, such as cardio concerns and low striking output, but believes he is more reliable than Magomedov. Levi is concerned about Magomedov's performance against Sean Strickland, where he looked defeated and gassed quickly. He sees Magomedov as a wild card with a padded record, and while he considered a plus-money stab on Magomedov earlier, he ultimately leans Borralho.

"I'm gonna lean with Borralho but I don't have any interest in laying this price... I'm going to pick him to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

James thinks the line is too wide and likes Magomedov at +250. He argues that Borralho rarely covers -300 unless he can dominate with grappling, and he is not sure Borralho can do that against Magomedov. He notes that Borralho gasses and that Magomedov has looked good in fights, including against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes if the fight stays on the feet, it will be close, and Magomedov has value as a big underdog.

James mentions that Borralho has a lot of decisions and doesn't push the pace, and he feels the over on total rounds should be favored. He also includes Magomedov in a degenerate parlay.
"I just think the line's wide to be honest... I like magam medov a lot in this spot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Caio Borralho

The MMA Guru picks Caio Borralho over Abusupiyan Magomedov. He questions Magomedov's cardio and durability, noting he gassed badly against Sean Strickland. The Guru highlights Borralho's size (6'2"), strong double-leg entries, and improving striking. He believes Borralho's grappling will neutralize Magomedov's wild striking and lead to a finish or dominant decision. He also calls Magomedov a 'quitter'.

"I'm going to go with baralo here over Abus... abis magedov dangerous but quitter"
LOSS vs Sean Strickland
TKO (punches) R2 4:20 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sean Strickland 1 81 of 188 43% 81 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 47 of 101 46% 47 of 101 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sean Strickland 0 11 of 48 22% 11 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 32 of 60 53% 32 of 60 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:23
2 Sean Strickland 1 70 of 140 50% 70 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 15 of 41 36% 15 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sean Strickland 81 of 188 43% 80 of 186 1 of 2 0 of 0 67 of 168 0 of 0 14 of 20
Abusupiyan Magomedov 47 of 101 46% 21 of 68 16 of 23 10 of 10 47 of 101 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sean Strickland 11 of 48 22% 10 of 46 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Abusupiyan Magomedov 32 of 60 53% 10 of 34 13 of 17 9 of 9 32 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Sean Strickland 70 of 140 50% 70 of 140 0 of 0 0 of 0 56 of 120 0 of 0 14 of 20
Abusupiyan Magomedov 15 of 41 36% 11 of 34 3 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Sean Strickland vs. Abusupiyan Magomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Strickland (-145), Magomedov (+125)

Round 1
In the next 25 minutes or less, one of two outcomes could play out, barring something crazy. Either a top contender in Strickland (26-5, 13-5 UFC) holds the line against a surging up-and-comer, or the hard-charging Magomedov (25-4-1, 1-0 UFC) stamps his ticket towards the top echelon of the 185- pound division in a hurry. Referee Mark Smith will be on the final call of the night, and the potentially intriguing striking affair will begin with a glove touch. Magomedov pushes off early with two front kicks, and Strickland brushes his side and absorbs a low kick. Magomedov crashes forward with looping strikes, and as Strickland circles away and lines up a jab, Magomedov pushes off and a finger slides into his eye. Smith calls time, and after 30 seconds, he calls in the doctor. Strickland mentioned that he cannot see, and he takes the cloth from the physician and wipes out his eye. Strickland paces back and forth, trying to clear his vision, and he is struggling to see. After two minutes of attempted recover, Strickland mentions he has double vision. Strickland states the he is good to go at just under three minutes of time off, and the two clap hands on the reset. Magomedov is quick to loop at front kick at him, and several front kicks follow that in rapid succession. Magomedov digs a kick deep on the upper calf, and he takes a jab and aims a second leg kick to the same spot. Magomedov gives chase, throwing wide strikes, and Strickland’s partial Philly Shell guard is allowing him to block and parry the worst of the strikes. Magomedov slings a left hand that gets around the guard, and Strickland has to shake it out. Strickland prods out with a few jabs, and Magomedov’s volume and power is far higher. Strickland dodges and weaves the power punches, and he circles into a front kick to his midsection. Strickland peppers Magomedov with jabs, reddening the nose up, but Magomedov chambers and fires several harmful leg kicks. Magomedov connects with a straight left up top and one to the body, and he gets backed up with a stream of jabs. Strickland pressures his foe and leans when a right hand brushes past his hair, and he splits the guard with an increasingly steady diet of jabs. Strickland takes a head kick right on the jaw, and Magomedov shoots in for a double and manages to throw the defensively sound Strickland to his seat. As Magomedov attempts to take his back, Strickland scoots out and works back to his feet. Strickland follows one jab with a solid right hand, but he is generally relying on his jab. Strickland takes a clean left hand over the top, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Magomedov

Round 2
The middleweights bump fists to start off the second frame, and Strickland lifts his leg up early to take the sting out of a leg kick. Magomedov swings for the fences with two hooks, and Strickland snipes Magomedov with a one-two. Strickland walks down Magomedov, who appears surprised by the blows, and he stumbles when he meets the cage behind him. Strickland drills Magomedov with another one-two, and he stalks after the Russian putting his punches together. Magomedov’s offense is limited to big counter punches, and Strickland senses his opening and lays into “Abus.” Strickland is in his groove, snapping out sharp jabs and follow-up punches, and Magomedov is reeling. Magomedov shells up, and Strickland accurately gets strikes around it and through it. Magomedov is fatiguing fast, his strikes telegraphed, while Strickland is not missing a beat as he lands with impunity. Strickland rattles Magomedov with a right hand, and he rolls through a counter that does not have nearly as much on it. Magomedov winces and gets backed up to the cage, and Strickland unleashes a vicious combination of punches to mess Magomedov up. Magomedov’s mouth wide open, he backs off while Strickland is comfortable to beat on him. Magomedov digs a pair of huge left hands to the body, but for every one he lands, Strickland gets off five or more.
Magomedov takes a long look at the clock, and he frowns as Strickland jabs his face off. Magomedov crumbles from the methodical bludgeoning, his knees giving way as he slumps his back to the cage. Strickland shoves him over to his side, and he force-feeds his fist into Magomedov’s face again and again without any signs of slowing. Magomedov is barely hanging on at this point, just taking damage, and Smith watches on cautiously until he decides that enough is enough and “Abus” is done.
After likely dropping the first round, Strickland came on strong, reminding the division that he is still a force to be reckoned with, and notching another win at the UFC Apex. A gracious Strickland thanks the fans and says he would not do what he does – or get paid – were it not for the fans. He then declares his love for the country, after calling for either a title shot or “meat” to fight. Whether Strickland ends up getting a crack at the belt after beating an unranked opponent in Magomedov, or he posts up at the Apex for another few headliners, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Result
Sean Strickland def. Abusupiyan Magomedov R2 4:20 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Angelo picks Abus Magomedov despite Strickland being the favorite. He notes Strickland's high volume and takedown defense but believes Abus's power and versatility will be key. He expects Abus to win early rounds but acknowledges Strickland's pressure could wear him down. He mentions a potential plus 5.5 point buy on the scorecard for Abus.

plus 5.5 points on judges scorecard (potential bet)
"Abus is going to be the pick here it's a low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Big Brady picks Sean Strickland to win by decision. He notes Strickland has faced much better competition and has five-round experience, while Magomedov has only one UFC fight. He thinks Strickland is the better striker, especially as the fight goes on, and Magomedov's only path is a first-round knockout. He expects Strickland to survive the early rounds and take over later.

"I like uh Sean Strickland by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Cody is shocked the line moved from -175 to -145, as Strickland is coming off a dominant five-round performance on short notice. He emphasizes Strickland's proven cardio, durability, and volume against elite competition, while Magomedov has only one UFC win over Dustin Stoltzfus and was knocked out by Lewis Taylor in PFL. Cody sees Magomedov's level of competition as far below Strickland's and believes the line is a trap but is willing to bet Strickland anyway.

Strickland over 80.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"I'm shocked man shot shock shocked so yeah I'm gonna bed and of course it's the main event so it gives me the Hedge out option if I needed to play it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Daniel leans Strickland due to his proven volume and output over five rounds, citing his 200+ significant strikes against Imavov and 150+ against Cannonier. He acknowledges Magomedov's power and finishing ability, especially early, but sees Strickland's pace and durability as key. However, he is not confident enough to bet, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation because Magomedov's decision record (5-1) and power make the outcome uncertain. He notes Strickland's output increases in later rounds, which favors him if the fight goes the distance.

dog or pass situation; Strickland minus 170, Magomedov plus 145
"I'm gonna lean towards Strickland but I think these odds reflect a lean towards Strickland a nice little 170 so I don't know man I honestly think this might be a dog or pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James discusses the matchup at length but does not make a definitive pick. He notes that Abusupiyan has stylistic advantages in wrestling that Strickland hasn't faced recently, and that Strickland's pressure and experience in five-round fights are factors. He says he needs to do more tape before coming to a prediction.

"I haven't have I don't have a massive decision yet I'm going to um tape it more cuz I have done a little bit of tape I'm going to tape it more and come up my prediction."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

Paul agrees with Cody, surprised by the line movement. He highlights Strickland's ability to go five rounds at 185, his volume (182 significant strikes in his last fight), and his ranking as #4 in the division. He notes Magomedov is not ranked in the top 15 and has fought mostly low-level competition. Paul believes Strickland's experience and cardio are decisive.

"I think I was surprised by the line on minus 175 the fact that it moved down to minus 145 I'm not quite understanding it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Sean Strickland

The Guru picks Sean Strickland, reasoning that Abus Magomedov's only notable win is over Dustin Stoltzfus, which is not enough evidence. He notes Strickland's experience and pressure, and believes if Magomedov doesn't finish in round one, his finishing rate plummets. He predicts Strickland will wear him down and get a late-round TKO or decision, similar to his win over Nassourdine Imavov.

late round TKO or decision
"you have to pick Strickland you pick an Abus magnumedov if you are guessing what he will become"
KO (front kick and punches) R1 0:19 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Tuivasa · Sep 03, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 1 7 of 7 100% 7 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 7 of 7 100% 6 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 2 of 2
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 27, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Angelo leans toward Dustin Stoltzfus because of high-level experience, noting that Abusupiyan Magomedov has not fought this level of competition. He thinks Stoltzfus can use takedowns to control for a win, similar to his last fight. He calls it a toss-up and a very low confidence pick.

"i am gonna do a slight lean here for dustin this is a very low confidence pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Abusupiyan Magomedov to win by decision. He notes that Magomedov has a significant striking advantage and good wrestling, while Stoltzfus has poor takedown defense and striking defense. The only concern is Magomedov's 20-month layoff, but he doesn't think Stoltzfus can exploit it. He expects Magomedov to control the fight wherever it goes.

"i'll say magametto by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Dustin Stoltzfus as a dog, arguing that Abusupiyan Magomedov is overrated with a padded record, poor wrestling, and a suspect chin. He notes that Magomedov has been inactive and has injury issues, while Stoltzfus has better cardio and top control. Cody believes Stoltzfus can tire Magomedov out and win by pressure and grappling.

"I'll think i'll take the dog shot dustin stolfest but again i mean it's hard to get really excited and confident about it."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Levi picks Abusupiyan Magomedov but is not confident, noting that Magomedov's fights can be close and that Stoltzfus has been competitive in his losses. He acknowledges Magomedov's talent but questions the dominance at -260. He does not bet.

"I'm gonna pick a boost but I'm not as confident as you"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The host is very confident in Magomedov, citing his superior striking, range control, and ability to mix in grappling. He dismisses Stoltzfus's only UFC win as unimpressive and believes Magomedov is outmatched everywhere. He predicts a finish inside the distance, possibly by submission or knockout.

Magomedov inside the distance (plus 120)
"Give me Abus inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 31, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, but with low confidence. He thinks Magomedov's power and striking are better than Stoltzfus's, and that Stoltzfus's wrestling may not be good enough to take Magomedov down. Paul says he will not bet the -270 line and is not confident in the pick.

"I'm picking my uh abus magomedov in the spot... definitely not taking the shot."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 29, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

The MMA Guru picks Abusupiyan Magomedov over Dustin Stoltzfus, citing Magomedov's size, athleticism, and grappling ability. He believes Stoltzfus lacks the power or explosiveness to trouble Magomedov early, and if the fight goes past the first round, Magomedov will win. He predicts a second or third round TKO finish for Magomedov.

Magomedov wins by TKO in round 2 or 3
"i'm going to be going with abba sippy and magomedov it's a trustworthy pick"
Brunno Ferreira - Fight History
SCHED vs Ikram Aliskerov
KO R1 1:47 · UFC 326 · Mar 07, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gregory Rodrigues 1 2 of 6 33% 2 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gregory Rodrigues 2 of 6 33% 1 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 5 40% 1 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (27 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Angelo notes that both fighters are similar with heavy hands and poor cardio, but Gregory is larger and has better fight IQ. He expects Gregory to wrestle early to avoid another knockout, as Bruno knocked him out in their first fight when Gregory was ill-prepared. He believes Gregory will slow the pace and win on the scorecards.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think Gregory is going to keep this pace slow, stay on the outside... I actually think this could be a very interesting fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Big Brady picks Gregory Rodrigues over Brunno Ferreira in a rematch. He notes Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in the first fight, but Rodrigues has elite jiu-jitsu that he underutilizes. Brady believes if Rodrigues fights smart, mixes in takedowns, and uses his grappling, he can submit Ferreira, who gassed badly against Abus Magomedov. He predicts a second-round submission, warning that if Rodrigues stands and bangs, he could get knocked out again.

Rodrigues by second round submission
"Give me Gregory Rodriguez to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Cody also picks Ferreira, highlighting Rodrigues' defensive flaws and tendency to gas. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that Rodrigues has been knocked out before. He expects Ferreira to land a big shot and finish.

"I got a slight dog play here on Bruno Ferrer."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Connor picks Rodrigues despite the first loss, noting that Rodrigues was styling on Ferreira before getting caught. He believes Rodrigues's improved grappling and willingness to test Ferreira's submission defense will be key. However, he acknowledges that Ferreira's one-punch power and Rodrigues's tendency to fade late make this a risky pick. Connor sees it as a well-matched rematch where either outcome is possible.

Odds: Ferreira opened at +130, now +145; Rodrigues opened at -150, now -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss. He should absolutely style on Bruno Fajeta again, but it's middleweight. So he might just get clocked again."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira as a plus-170 underdog, believing the odds should be closer. He notes that Ferreira knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has power that can end the fight early. Vreeland acknowledges both fighters have cardio issues and one-shot power, but he likes the value on Ferreira.

"Give me Bruno Ferrer to come out here and uh make history once again and get this upset."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Mar 1, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

James picks Brunno Ferreira as the value side, noting that Ferreira already knocked out Rodrigues in their first fight and has the power to do it again. He highlights Rodrigues' poor chin and tendency to get hit, while Ferreira's leaping left hook is a dangerous weapon. James admits he is not confident but cannot trust Rodrigues at minus-200 odds due to his chin issues. He expects Ferreira to win by KO, likely early.

"I'm going to ultimately pick Bruno Ferrer just because I just feel like, you know, underdog price, pretty big underdog price. He's already knocked him out once."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Rodrigues has a height and reach advantage and will play it safe early before finding a knockout as Ferreira slows. He learned from the first fight and should be more assertive. The fight finishes inside the distance. Waiting for a better line is advised.

Rodrigues by knockout; fight inside distance
"I think this fight finishes inside the distance. I think wins, but I would think twice in terms of taking him at Chalk."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 4, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Paul picks Ferreira as a dog, citing Rodrigues' durability issues and poor head movement. He notes Ferreira's speed and power, and that he already knocked out Rodrigues. He sees value at plus money and expects a knockout.

"It's dog or pass here for me."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his previous KO win over Rodrigues. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and that Rodrigues is chinny. He predicts a KO win, possibly in a scrappy fight.

KO victory
"Bruno Fea KO victory."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Gregory Rodrigues

Zane picks Rodrigues, echoing Connor's reasoning. He notes that Rodrigues has become more willing to grapple and can use ground-and-pound to finish. Zane points out that Ferreira's game is limited to wild overhands and sacrificial submissions, and Rodrigues should be able to avoid the big shot if he fights smart. However, he admits that Ferreira's power makes it a dangerous fight.

Odds: Ferreira +145, Rodrigues -170.
"I am going to pick Gregory Rodriguez, even despite the first loss."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 323 · Dec 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marvin Vettori 0 88 of 186 47% 90 of 188 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:08
Brunno Ferreira 0 77 of 149 51% 77 of 149 1 of 7 14% 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marvin Vettori 0 27 of 49 55% 28 of 50 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Brunno Ferreira 0 25 of 47 53% 25 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Marvin Vettori 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 30 of 55 54% 30 of 55 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Marvin Vettori 0 30 of 66 45% 31 of 67 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:04
Brunno Ferreira 0 22 of 47 46% 22 of 47 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marvin Vettori 88 of 186 47% 78 of 176 1 of 1 9 of 9 86 of 181 2 of 4 0 of 1
Brunno Ferreira 77 of 149 51% 60 of 130 9 of 10 8 of 9 73 of 143 3 of 3 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marvin Vettori 27 of 49 55% 22 of 44 0 of 0 5 of 5 27 of 48 0 of 1 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 25 of 47 53% 18 of 40 3 of 3 4 of 4 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Marvin Vettori 31 of 71 43% 27 of 67 1 of 1 3 of 3 29 of 68 2 of 3 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 30 of 55 54% 21 of 45 5 of 5 4 of 5 27 of 52 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Marvin Vettori 30 of 66 45% 29 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1 30 of 65 0 of 0 0 of 1
Brunno Ferreira 22 of 47 46% 21 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0 21 of 46 0 of 0 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Angelo picks Marvin Vettori, citing his incredible durability and experience against top competition. He notes that Vettori has been fighting the top 10 for years, while Ferreira has not faced the same level. Angelo acknowledges Ferreira's power and judo but doubts his cardio and ability to hurt Vettori. He expects Vettori to weather an early storm and win a decision, and he bet on the over 2.5 rounds.

over 2.5 rounds (bet at -140, half unit)
"Marvin Vettori is gonna be the pick here. I think Marvin gets it done. I even bet on the round over."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 26, 2025 (10 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Big Brady picks Marvin Vettori despite calling him 'washed'. He notes Vettori's durability and volume, and Ferreira's cardio issues, referencing Ferreira's loss to Abus Magomedov. He expects Vettori to mix in takedowns, grind on Ferreira, and submit him in the third round.

Vettori by third round submission
"I'm going to take Vtori to, you know, mix in the takedowns, grind on Ferrer, get him tired, and actually submit Ferrer in the third round."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Cody picks Vettori, citing his durability and volume. He notes that Vettori has never been finished and has gone the distance with top competition. He believes Ferreira relies on early finishes and will fade if he doesn't get them. He thinks Vettori will outwork Ferreira and win by decision.

"It's got to be Marv. It's got to be Marv. Is this where Marv's head actually falls off for the first time? If it is, then then so be it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Connor picks Brunno Ferreira, citing that Vettori has lost his way after leaving Kings MMA and now fights without a clear game plan. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with submission threats, and while Vettori should win on paper, his recent performances show he is adrift. Connor calls it a vibes pick.

"I'm going to take Fajeta. He seems totally adrift to me. Like he just does not know what the aim is."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 27, 2025 (9 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel picks Ferreira, citing Vettori's decline (1-5 since title fight), lack of power, and fading durability. He believes Ferreira's power and finishing ability will be too much, and he expects Ferreira to become the first to finish Vettori in the UFC. He notes Vettori's volume edge but doubts it matters.

"Bruno Hulk Ferra is going to be the first man in UFC history to finish Marvin Vtori."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 29, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Lucrative James believes Marvin Vettori has looked washed recently, with declining durability. He notes Ferreira's power and thinks Vettori's chin may finally crack. He acknowledges the risk of betting against a proven chin but sees value in Ferreira as an underdog. He leans towards a KO win for Ferreira but does not predict the method definitively.

"I got Bruno Ferrer here, man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marvin Vettori

The host notes the opposite recent records but sees this as a step up in competition for Ferreira. He highlights Vettori's never-been-finished durability and Ferreira's lack of decision wins, expecting Vettori to bully Ferreira and pull out the win in deep water.

"Vtori's never been finished and Fera has never won a fight by decision... Vtori puts it on him, bullies him, and pulls his fight out in deep water."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Marvin Vettori

Paul agrees, emphasizing Vettori's chin and experience against elite fighters. He notes that Ferreira's wins are all first-round finishes and that he has never won a decision. He believes Vettori's size and durability will allow him to outlast Ferreira and win by decision or late finish.

"Marvin Vtori is one hell of a survivor."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Brunno Ferreira to finish Marvin Vettori, despite Vettori's legendary chin. He notes Vettori is becoming more hittable and showing damage, and Ferreira has KO power and submissions. The Guru predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission.

first round finish
"Brunno Fe is going to finish Marvin Vtori by TKO early in this fight. I reckon I think it's going to be the first or second round."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Zane picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing that Vettori has destroyed his own ability to fight with a good process. He notes that Ferreira is a power puncher with poor footwork but has knockout wins. Zane believes Vettori's indecision and gun-shyness could lead to Ferreira landing a big shot.

"I agree. The head of the game makes no, it is not even a borderline elite middleweight game."
WIN vs Jackson McVey
Submission R1 3:35 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 7 of 9 77% 9 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Jackson McVey 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 7 of 9 77% 9 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:07
Jackson McVey 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 7 of 9 77% 4 of 5 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jackson McVey 4 of 15 26% 3 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 7 of 9 77% 4 of 5 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jackson McVey 4 of 15 26% 3 of 13 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Brunno Ferreira vs. Jackson McVey
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Ferreira (-600), McVey (+440)

Round 1
Violence is almost guaranteed in this next preliminary tilt, as these two middleweights each celebrate 100% finish rates. Ferreira (13-2, 4-2 UFC) will now draw McVey (6-0, 0-0 UFC) after a round robin of opponent switches for both men, and they are more than ready to hit something. Referee Kerry Hatley will make sure that they do so on the up-and-up. Before looking to lop one another’s head off, the intense 185ers touch gloves.
Ferreira gets right on his bike and circles around to find his way in, trying to look for angles towards the taller newcomer. Ferreira fires off a body kick after about 30 seconds of inactivity, and he circles all the way around his adversary with nary another strike thrown. McVey offers a few pawing front kicks to see if he can reach “The Hulk,” and he has a high kick skim across Ferreira’s shoulder. Ferreira steps in to jack McVey in the jaw with a right hook, but it is one-and-done as he backs off to avoid counters. Ferreira scores a low kick and shells up to block a few punches and a high kick. He blasts the front leg with a kick, and McVey stumbles and smiles to try to keep a poker face. Ferreira turns around carelessly to reset, and McVey tackles him to the mat from behind and briefly takes his back.
The incredibly strong Brazilian stands up with McVey on his back, leans over and slams McVey over his head to the mat. McVey lands with a grunt, and Ferreira leisurely sits down in side control to start doing work with elbow. When McVey looks to scramble, Ferreira slices into full mount like a hot knife through butter.
Ferreira lowers himself down for an arm-triangle choke setup, but it is a ruse as he traps McVey’s arm from the side and rolls him over, the armbar already set. Ferreira turns belly-down to complete the submission
, and the newcomer is shocked at how fast Ferreira nailed that sub and taps out frantically. “The Hulk” releases the grip immediately and runs to his corner to embrace them. His 100% finish rate remains intact.

The Official Result
Brunno Ferreira def. Jackson McVey R1 3:35 via Submission (Armbar)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira to win, citing his power, grappling, and experience. He notes that Jackson McVey has had a chaotic lead-up with multiple fight cancellations and weight cuts, which will work against him. However, he warns against betting heavy on Ferreira due to cardio issues.

Says he won't have a whole bunch of bets on a minus 700 favorite with cardio issues.
"I think Bruno smokes him. I think Bruno smokes him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady expects Brunno Ferreira to knock out Jackson McVey in the first round, citing Ferreira's scary power and McVey's step up in competition. He feels bad for McVey but sees a mismatch.

Ferreira by first round knockout
"I think FRA probably knocks out Jackson McVey in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The host notes that McVey is on short notice and facing the most difficult opponent he's ever come across. He believes Ferreira will crush him and finish him within the first round, indicating a high confidence in a first-round finish.

finishes within the first round
"I think Fera crushes him and finishes him within the first round."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Brunno Ferreira over Jackson McVey, calling it a mismatch. He notes that McVey is a debutant who was originally scheduled to fight someone else and has been in a depleted state due to weight cuts. Ferreira is described as a very good middleweight with dynamic striking and power, having knocked out Gregory Rodriguez in the first round. The Guru predicts a second-round TKO for Ferreira, as McVey's stand-up is hesitant and rushed, and he will likely get caught.

"I'm going with Jackson McVey... I think he's going to lose to Bruno Fea."
CANCEL vs Ikram Aliskerov
Submission R2 4:27 · UFC 313: Pereira vs. Ankalaev · Mar 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 0 27 of 56 48% 31 of 63 2 of 7 28% 1 0 1:12
Armen Petrosyan 0 46 of 83 55% 47 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 0 13 of 25 52% 14 of 26 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:18
Armen Petrosyan 0 22 of 39 56% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brunno Ferreira 0 14 of 31 45% 17 of 37 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:54
Armen Petrosyan 0 24 of 44 54% 24 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 27 of 56 48% 14 of 40 9 of 10 4 of 6 25 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 46 of 83 55% 19 of 54 7 of 7 20 of 22 46 of 83 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 15 4 of 5 3 of 5 11 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 22 of 39 56% 6 of 22 4 of 4 12 of 13 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brunno Ferreira 14 of 31 45% 8 of 25 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Armen Petrosyan 24 of 44 54% 13 of 32 3 of 3 8 of 9 24 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R3 3:14 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 26 of 59 44% 45 of 81 4 of 8 50% 1 0 3:36
Brunno Ferreira 0 29 of 71 40% 36 of 83 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 14 of 29 48% 14 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Brunno Ferreira 0 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 8 of 23 34% 21 of 37 2 of 5 40% 0 0 2:14
Brunno Ferreira 0 20 of 42 47% 22 of 47 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:06
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 0 4 of 7 57% 10 of 15 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:22
Brunno Ferreira 0 7 of 17 41% 12 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abusupiyan Magomedov 26 of 59 44% 10 of 40 8 of 11 8 of 8 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 2
Brunno Ferreira 29 of 71 40% 20 of 59 9 of 12 0 of 0 26 of 65 1 of 2 2 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abusupiyan Magomedov 14 of 29 48% 4 of 17 5 of 7 5 of 5 14 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 2 of 12 16% 0 of 8 2 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Abusupiyan Magomedov 8 of 23 34% 3 of 18 2 of 2 3 of 3 8 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 2
Brunno Ferreira 20 of 42 47% 16 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0 18 of 37 0 of 1 2 of 4
3 Abusupiyan Magomedov 4 of 7 57% 3 of 5 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Brunno Ferreira 7 of 17 41% 4 of 13 3 of 4 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.

Watching line movement tracker for better value on Ferreira as the dog.
"Brunno f is going to be the pick low confidence I'm going to be watching the line movement tracker keeping an eye on it see if I can get even better value."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.

second round submission
"I'll say abua met off to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.

"I'm going to take a small play on him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.

"I was thinking he's like, uh, he's like a portion of Gilbert Burns is striking without any of the other stuff to back it up. Yeah. Short little stocky power puncher who like, yeah, he just doesn't have anything else …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.

"Abus Mega Med off uh definitely my Play Here wouldn't shock me if he subbed him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.

first-round knockout
"I'm gonna go with Bruno to come out here and upset him via starch again"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.

"I'm taking F especially if he wants to stri with him then I I will take the hul here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.

Magomedov wins by knockout
"look for magov to win this fight by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.

"I think I'm going to go with a boost"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.

"I'm going to go with Brunno Ferreira because in my mind I'm thinking if it all goes good for either of them each of them are going to have a chance to win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.

"fajeta is he's got great power but the rest of his game just doesn't exist"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.

"I think it could be wider than that. I know Avus is a bit of a glass cannon and you know, he's been shown up by fighters like Kyle Baha'o and Sean Strickland and even Lewis Taylor at one point, …"
KO (spinning back elbow) R1 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brunno Ferreira 1 24 of 36 66% 27 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Dustin Stoltzfus 0 18 of 40 45% 20 of 44 1 of 2 50% 2 0 1:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brunno Ferreira 24 of 36 66% 16 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2 22 of 33 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Stoltzfus 18 of 40 45% 12 of 34 4 of 4 2 of 2 13 of 34 3 of 3 2 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira, citing his insane power against Dustin Stoltzfus's questionable chin. He notes that all of Ferreira's wins are finishes, and Stoltzfus has been knocked out before. He thinks it's a trap fight because it seems too easy, but he is falling into the trap. He predicts Ferreira wins inside the distance.

Brunno Ferreira wins inside the distance
"Bruno FAA inside the distance no less"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Big Brady picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout. He highlights Ferreira's incredible one-punch power and vicious ground and pound. He notes that Stoltzfus is hitable with 48% striking defense and that Ferreira will follow up if he hurts him. He mentions a potential live bet on Stoltzfus if he survives the first round.

knockout round 1; live bet Stoltzfus if survives first round
"give me Bruno Ferrera to win this fight and win this fight by first round Nar knockout I think he Sparks Dustin stsf in the early going"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Cody picks Stoltzfus as a greasy underdog, noting that Ferreira is a first-round knockout artist with questionable cardio and wild striking. Stoltzfus has decent cardio, wrestling, and BJJ, and has been competitive against tough opponents. Cody believes if Stoltzfus can survive the first round, he can take over with his grappling and pressure. He sees value in the plus money and expects Stoltzfus to win by decision or late submission.

"I would think that there's a lot of pass here for stus but largely he's going to have to get out of that first round Bruno we know he's a tank engine for the first round but almost all of …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Daniel picks Stoltzfus as a live dog, believing Ferreira is too small for middleweight and that Stoltzfus can survive the early onslaught and take over after the seven-minute mark. He notes Ferreira's all-first-round finishes but criticizes his awkward movement and lack of in-between striking. He warns that Stoltzfus stands straight up and gets hit early, but if he can drag the fight out, his grappling and experience could pay off.

dog or pass
"I'm going to go Dustin Stoltzfus here now"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jacob picks Brunno Ferreira, agreeing with Angelo. He notes that Stoltzfus has a suspect chin and Ferreira has big power. However, he warns that if the fight gets out of the first round, Ferreira might fade. He has Ferreira in a parlay but is not betting him heavily. He plans to live bet Stoltzfus if the first round ends without a finish.

Brunno Ferreira in a parlay; live bet on Dustin Stoltzfus if fight goes past round 1
"I'm picking Bruno I think he is going to find that shot but if this gets out of the first round I don't care how the first round looked Saturday live stream if we're streaming you better believe I'm putting …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Dustin Stoltzfus

Stoltzfus has a reach and height advantage, and his straight shots down the pipe should keep Ferreira at bay. Ferreira is a power puncher with a BJJ black belt, but Stoltzfus showed improved performance against Soriano. At +220, Stoltzfus is a good underdog pick to win by decision, possibly even a late finish.

"give me stfo and St Fus by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul sees this as a dogger pass situation. He acknowledges Ferreira's first-round knockout power but notes the lack of value on Ferreira by knockout props. He thinks Stoltzfus could win if he survives the early storm, but he's not confident enough to make a pick.

"it's a dogger pass type of situation as well Cody"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru picks Ferreira to 'smoke' Stoltzfus, saying Stoltzfus isn't the same level of danger on the feet and will be more scared in the fight. He notes Ferreira has KO power and that Stoltzfus's wins aren't impressive (e.g., Dwight Grant, Punahele Soriano). He expects a KO win for Ferreira.

KO win prediction
"Bruno fa is going to smoke him... there will be one person in this fight who is a lot more [__] himself than the other one and it's going to be Dustin stus so I think that's going to lead …"
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Angelo picks Brunno Ferreira with low confidence. He questions whether Abusupiyan Magomedov is good or not, noting his weak chin and poor performances. He thinks Ferreira's only path is an early finish, but with new gloves, finishes are less reliable. He will watch the line movement for better value on Ferreira as the underdog.

Watching line movement tracker for better value on Ferreira as the dog.
"Brunno f is going to be the pick low confidence I'm going to be watching the line movement tracker keeping an eye on it see if I can get even better value."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Big Brady picks Magomedov, citing his size, reach advantage, and wrestling. He is concerned about Ferreira's cardio, noting he looked like he was slowing down in the first round against Dustin Stoltzfus. He believes Magomedov can mix in takedowns and finish Ferreira in the second round by submission.

second round submission
"I'll say abua met off to win this fight I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Cody picks Abusupiyan Magomedov, believing his wrestling and length will be key. He notes that Ferreira has poor takedown defense and that Magomedov can neutralize his power by taking him down. Cody is not highly confident due to Magomedov's cardio issues but thinks he can grind out a win.

"I'm going to take a small play on him"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Connor picks Magomedov, noting that Ferreira is much smaller and his game is shallow. He compares Ferreira to a portion of Gilbert Burns' striking without the other tools. Magomedov's size and reach will allow him to control the fight, and Ferreira is not suited for fighting off his back.

"I was thinking he's like, uh, he's like a portion of Gilbert Burns is striking without any of the other stuff to back it up. Yeah. Short little stocky power puncher who like, yeah, he just doesn't have anything else to help him actually control or dictate a fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Daniel Vreeland picks Magomedov, arguing that he is more technical on the feet and has a strong wrestling game. He notes that Magomedov's losses are to top middleweights like Khamzat Chimaev and Sean Strickland, and that Ferreira's only path is a KO. Vreeland expects Magomedov to take Ferreira down repeatedly and possibly submit him.

"Abus Mega Med off uh definitely my Play Here wouldn't shock me if he subbed him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Daniel Vreeland picks Brunno Ferreira to win by first-round knockout, citing Ferreira's devastating power and Magomedov's history of being knocked out. He acknowledges that if the fight goes to decision, Magomedov likely wins, but believes Ferreira's early finishing upside is worth the pick. Vreeland is not confident and notes the risk of Ferreira fading if he doesn't get the finish.

first-round knockout
"I'm gonna go with Bruno to come out here and upset him via starch again"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

Jeff Fox is taking Ferreira, swayed by his recent win over Warley Alves. He believes Ferreira can land a knockout if he can keep the fight standing, though he acknowledges Magomedov's wrestling threat. Fox's pick is less confident and seems to be a contrarian choice.

"I'm taking F especially if he wants to stri with him then I I will take the hul here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Magomedov has the overall advantage with his ability to mix in grappling and his reach and length. He should counter Ferreira's blitzing approach and eventually put him away by knockout, similar to what Nurlan Ruziboev did to Toofan.

Magomedov wins by knockout
"look for magov to win this fight by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Paul picks Magomedov, citing his superior wrestling and cleaner striking. He notes that Ferreira is undersized for middleweight and has been taken down easily. Paul believes Magomedov can implement a wrestling-heavy game plan and win by decision or late finish. He is not highly confident.

"I think I'm going to go with a boost"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Brunno Ferreira

The Guru leans toward Brunno Ferreira, trusting his doggedness and finishing instincts in a firefight. He notes that Abusupiyan Magomedov may not have the same grit and could fade. He acknowledges both are capable of finishing each other but believes Ferreira will push when the going gets tough. The Guru also comments that Magomedov is 'too westernized' and 'soy'.

"I'm going to go with Brunno Ferreira because in my mind I'm thinking if it all goes good for either of them each of them are going to have a chance to win."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picked Magomedov, noting that Ferreira has great power but the rest of his game doesn't exist. He described Magomedov's game as an inch deep and a mile wide, able to do enough to stay in a fight if his opponent can't take over in any one area. Zane pointed out that Ferreira lacks consistency and a plan, so Magomedov was able to climb back and get the win.

"fajeta is he's got great power but the rest of his game just doesn't exist"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Abusupiyan Magomedov

Zane picks Magomedov because of his significant size and reach advantage over Ferreira. He notes that Ferreira's game is shallow and he is a short, stocky power puncher with no other tools to control a fight. Magomedov can use his reach to land one-twos and takedowns, and Ferreira's only chance is an early knockout, but Magomedov has speed and size.

"I think it could be wider than that. I know Avus is a bit of a glass cannon and you know, he's been shown up by fighters like Kyle Baha'o and Sean Strickland and even Lewis Taylor at one point, uh, did knock him out pretty fast, but he's also …"