vs
-275 +275
Dan Ige

Dan Ige

11-10
UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Next Fight
Age 34
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 34
Height 5' 7"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lerone Murphy
4.34 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
2.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.2 TD Avg
54.0% TD Acc.
44.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Dan Ige
3.6 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.56 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.93 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
56.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Lerone Murphy
Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
BetMGM +500
Submission
BetMGM +2500
Decision
BetRivers -141
Dan Ige
Moneyline
Caesars +275
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1100
Submission
FanDuel +2000
Decision
FanDuel +470
Lerone Murphy - Fight History
LOSS vs Movsar Evloev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Evloev vs. Murphy · Mar 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Movsar Evloev 0 86 of 189 45% 124 of 234 9 of 10 90% 0 0 3:54
Lerone Murphy 0 89 of 239 37% 89 of 239 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Movsar Evloev 0 11 of 31 35% 11 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Movsar Evloev 0 17 of 37 45% 17 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lerone Murphy 0 24 of 57 42% 24 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Movsar Evloev 0 25 of 50 50% 26 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Lerone Murphy 0 23 of 48 47% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Movsar Evloev 0 21 of 35 60% 30 of 45 3 of 4 75% 0 0 1:19
Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Movsar Evloev 0 12 of 36 33% 40 of 69 5 of 5 100% 0 0 2:12
Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 46 26% 12 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Movsar Evloev 86 of 189 45% 47 of 134 33 of 44 6 of 11 80 of 178 1 of 2 5 of 9
Lerone Murphy 89 of 239 37% 45 of 175 24 of 38 20 of 26 89 of 238 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Movsar Evloev 11 of 31 35% 3 of 21 6 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 14 of 49 28% 6 of 35 4 of 8 4 of 6 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Movsar Evloev 17 of 37 45% 9 of 24 7 of 11 1 of 2 17 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 24 of 57 42% 12 of 41 7 of 10 5 of 6 24 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Movsar Evloev 25 of 50 50% 12 of 34 11 of 13 2 of 3 25 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 23 of 48 47% 12 of 35 8 of 9 3 of 4 23 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Movsar Evloev 21 of 35 60% 16 of 29 5 of 5 0 of 1 15 of 25 1 of 2 5 of 8
Lerone Murphy 16 of 39 41% 6 of 24 5 of 8 5 of 7 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Movsar Evloev 12 of 36 33% 7 of 26 4 of 8 1 of 2 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 12 of 46 26% 9 of 40 0 of 3 3 of 3 12 of 45 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy because he is the better overall fighter with superior striking and scrambling ability. He notes Movsar Evloev is a boring wrestler who doesn't do damage or seek finishes. He believes Murphy can scramble back to his feet and win rounds with striking, especially with English judges. He bet a small amount on Murphy at +220.

bet small at +220; English judges may help
"I am picking Lar Murphy. I bet on him at plus 220. Nothing huge, a small little bet because I am a coward. But I'm picking Lor Murphy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Big Brady confidently picks Movsar Evloev, citing his wrestling advantage and Murphy's poor takedown defense (51%). He notes that Murphy has been taken down multiple times by various opponents, including Gabriel Santos (five times). He thinks Evloev's striking is underrated and that he will mix in takedowns to win a decision. He also mentions that Evloev has had a layoff and visa issues but expects the best version of him.

Movsar Evloev by decision
"Give me Evloev to win this fight. Give me Evloev to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody sees value in Murphy as a plus-money underdog, citing Evloev's cardio issues in five-round fights and Murphy's ability to scramble and land strikes. He expects Murphy to win a decision or late stoppage.

"I actually think he just wins this fight. But it does come down to a numbers game sometimes. And by the value side, he is definitely the value side."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Connor agrees with Zane that Evloev is the right pick due to Murphy's poor takedown defense, but he is more hesitant because of the five-round factor. He notes that Murphy is impossible to break with pace and pressure, and Evloev has never fought five rounds. Connor points to the Arnold Allen fight where Evloev struggled when takedowns stopped working, and suggests Murphy could get a read on Evloev's entries in later rounds. However, he ultimately picks Evloev because Murphy's takedown defense is worse than Allen's and Evloev is a good takedown artist who maintains position.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I think you do have to pick Yvlowev. You're not wrong. I think that is the right pick, but I do really wonder, like, what does this fight look like in rounds four and five..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel Vreeland picks Movsar Evloev to win by unanimous decision. He believes Evloev will dominate the first two rounds with takedowns, but Murphy will rally in rounds 3 and 4. However, Evloev will regain control in the fifth round to secure a 48-47 decision.

"I think if Loy is going to win a unanimous decision here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Daniel leans Evloev as a pure pick, citing his elite athleticism and takedown numbers. He acknowledges Murphy's resilience and gritty comebacks but thinks Evloev can secure a takedown in the fifth round if it's close. He notes Evloev doesn't finish fights and Murphy is hard to put away.

"I kind of do lean Evloev just as a pure pick."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Hesitant picked Mar 20, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Evloev's wrestling should be the difference, but Murphy's home advantage and ability to get up make it less certain. Evloev may struggle to hold Murphy down, but his chain wrestling and volume striking could win rounds. On neutral territory, Evloev wins easily; in London, it's closer.

Fight likely goes to decision; not interested in fight spreads.
"Evloev should win."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

James picks Movsar Evloev to win via decision, citing Evloev's relentless pressure, volume takedowns, and cardio over 25 minutes. He notes that Lerone Murphy has historically struggled with grapplers who shoot volume takedowns, as seen in fights against Zubaira Tukhugov and Gabriel Santos. James also mentions that Murphy's takedown defense is poor, though he has good get-ups. He considers the layoff and illness for Evloev but still favors him.

Evloev by decision, over 4.5 rounds
"I think Mobsa Evov wins here. I'm really more looking for the Mobs decision over four and a half cuz I think Leon is super tough."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The host is confident in Movsar Evloev winning by decision. He highlights Evloev's superior grappling, cardio, and pressure, while Murphy is seen as well-rounded but likely to be worn down by takedowns and mat returns. He expects Evloev to dictate the fight on the ground and win decisively on the scorecards.

"I like Evloev here. I don't mind passing on him if I don't get the number that I want, but I still think he wins this pretty decisively. And I think he does it on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Paul thinks Evloev will get takedowns repeatedly and grind out a decision, though he acknowledges the risk of home cooking for Murphy. He's confident Evloev wins but not betting heavily.

"I have no doubt in my mind that he's going to be able to get takedowns over Luron Murphy over and over and over."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

The MMA Guru picks Movsar Evloev to win by fourth or fifth round finish. He notes Murphy has been taken down easily by lesser wrestlers and Evloev's grappling is elite. He believes Evloev will ragdoll Murphy and eventually find a finish as Murphy tires. He also mentions Evloev's improved physique and that Murphy lacks finishing power.

fourth or fifth round finish
"Eve gets this one done. Fourth or fifth round finish. I think he'll push for a finish and get it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Movsar Evloev

Zane picks Evloev based on Murphy's poor takedown defense (51% in UFC) and Evloev's consistent wrestling and top control. He notes that while Murphy is a good scrambler and learns during fights, Evloev's relentless pressure and ability to win scrambles will likely overwhelm Murphy over three rounds. Zane acknowledges the five-round question but believes Evloev's gas tank is fine, though his lack of adaptability could be an issue if Murphy figures out his entries late.

Evloev opened at -250, currently -240; Murphy opened at +210, currently +205.
"I got to pick the rest. And can also very, very clearly and notably win out really difficult scramble battles."
WIN vs Aaron Pico
KO R1 3:21 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 1 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Aaron Pico 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 8 of 16 50% 4 of 9 4 of 6 0 of 1 6 of 14 1 of 1 1 of 1
Aaron Pico 13 of 29 44% 7 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 7 of 21 3 of 5 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 10, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Aaron Pico

Angelo highlights Pico's wrestling and boxing credentials, believing his wrestling will be too much for Murphy. He acknowledges Murphy's technical striking but thinks Pico is more well-rounded and determined now. He compares Pico's potential impact to Kayla Harrison's debut.

"I do think Pico's wrestling is just going to be too much here. Pico also has very good striking."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 12, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He is impressed by Aaron Pico's power and wrestling but questions his competition level. He notes Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with wins over Josh Emmett, Dan Ige, and Edson Barboza. He worries about Murphy's takedown defense but thinks his get-up game is good. He sees this as a 'prove it' spot for Pico and favors Murphy's experience.

"I'm actually going to take Murphy here. ... I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Murphy is a massive step up in competition for Pico, who has never faced an athlete of Murphy's size, speed, and durability. He notes that Murphy is battle-tested against UFC featherweights and has never lost to a higher level of competition, while Pico's wins are against older or less skilled opponents. Connor believes Murphy's durability and problem-solving skills will allow him to weather Pico's early wrestling and take over as the fight progresses, potentially finishing him.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is battle tested against UFC featherweights... Pico is going to get his ass down quick, probably, but it is yet to be an actual fight losing weakness."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Aaron Pico

The host believes Pico will remind everyone he is a high-level prospect and deserving of a top-10 ranking. He thinks Murphy taking the fight on short notice is a disadvantage, and expects Pico to control the fight both on the feet and on the ground, grinding out a decision win.

"I believe Pico will remind people that he is still a very highlevel prospect and more than deserving to be in the top 10 of the division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Aaron Pico, citing Murphy's superior technical skills, footwork, and fight IQ. He believes Pico's power and wrestling are threats, but Murphy's counter-grappling and ability to avoid big shots will be key. The Guru notes that Pico has been knocked out before and that Murphy is undefeated in the UFC with experience against dangerous opponents. He also mentions that the betting odds favoring Pico are off, making Murphy a value pick.

Underdog money on Murphy is crazy; could see a finish for Murphy (TKO or decision)
"I'm taking Lone Murphy. I think Lone Murphy beats Aaron Pico. Stylewise, I completely understand why Aaron Pico is problematic to Luron Murphy. He is a tricky style for Lurone Murphy."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy, arguing that Pico has never faced an athlete of Murphy's caliber and that Murphy's durability and resourcefulness will be key. He notes that Murphy has poor takedown defense but has never lost a fight due to it, as he figures out opponents as the fight goes on. Zane believes Pico's wrestling is violence-focused and that Murphy will get chances to get back up and land a fight-ending shot, as Pico has been finished before.

Pico opened at -150, currently -160; Murphy opened at +130, currently +140
"Murphy is just a physical presence like Pico has literally never faced... I kind of think Murphy will finish him."
WIN vs Josh Emmett
Decision (unanimous) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Emmett vs. Murphy · Apr 05, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Josh Emmett 0 41 of 143 28% 44 of 149 4 of 11 36% 0 0 3:39
Lerone Murphy 0 84 of 157 53% 117 of 195 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Josh Emmett 0 10 of 28 35% 10 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Lerone Murphy 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Josh Emmett 0 2 of 8 25% 3 of 11 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:50
Lerone Murphy 0 13 of 21 61% 26 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
3 Josh Emmett 0 5 of 25 20% 7 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Lerone Murphy 0 21 of 36 58% 33 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Josh Emmett 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:28
Lerone Murphy 0 22 of 41 53% 26 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Josh Emmett 0 11 of 44 25% 11 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 35 51% 21 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Josh Emmett 41 of 143 28% 29 of 124 6 of 11 6 of 8 40 of 133 1 of 7 0 of 3
Lerone Murphy 84 of 157 53% 37 of 90 17 of 30 30 of 37 75 of 148 9 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Josh Emmett 10 of 28 35% 6 of 23 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 10 of 24 41% 5 of 16 3 of 5 2 of 3 10 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Josh Emmett 2 of 8 25% 1 of 7 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 13 of 21 61% 2 of 7 6 of 9 5 of 5 9 of 17 4 of 4 0 of 0
3 Josh Emmett 5 of 25 20% 3 of 19 2 of 4 0 of 2 5 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 1
Lerone Murphy 21 of 36 58% 11 of 24 3 of 4 7 of 8 16 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0
4 Josh Emmett 13 of 38 34% 9 of 34 1 of 1 3 of 3 12 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 22 of 41 53% 9 of 22 4 of 7 9 of 12 22 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Josh Emmett 11 of 44 25% 10 of 41 0 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Lerone Murphy 18 of 35 51% 10 of 21 1 of 5 7 of 9 18 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy as the overall better fighter, more technical and cleaner. He notes Murphy moves well, has power, and scrambles well after takedowns. He acknowledges Josh Emmett has power and wrestling but doesn't use his wrestling often. Angelo is concerned about Murphy being dropped by Dan Ige but believes Murphy can fight a perfect fight for 25 minutes. He picks Murphy despite the steep odds.

"I am on the lon side 3 to1 favorite again these odds start to seem a little crazy what could go wrong with an undefeated guy fighting an aging vet."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy, noting his career-best performance against Edson Barboza and 25-minute cardio. He believes Josh Emmett, at 40 and on a layoff, is unlikely to win three rounds and will need an early KO. He expects Murphy to outwork Emmett and win a decision.

"I'm going to go with Murphy I'm going to go Murphy to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Josh Emmett

Connor picks Emmett, citing Murphy's history of giving opponents chances to land huge shots and his tendency to adjust mid-fight rather than prepare. He compares Emmett to Dan Henderson for his simple, powerful game and notes that Murphy's worst round is always the first, where he often has no plan. Connor trusts that Emmett's power and persistence will catch Murphy, especially given Murphy's vulnerability to being hurt.

Emmett opened +216, now +246. Connor implies the line is reasonable given Emmett's danger.
"I'm gonna stick with the Emmett pick. I understand that perfectly. Yeah, it should be a very winnable fight for LaRone Murphy, but I have seen him in too many fights give opponents the chance to just land huge on …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better fighter and closer to his prime. He will start to pull away in the third and fourth rounds, mixing up his clinch game, wrestling, and technical striking to evade Emmett's power, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I believe Murphy is the better fighter here and way closer to his Prime and I think that will see Murphy really start to pull away probably in the third and fourth rounds mixing up his clinch game his wrestling …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy after changing his mind upon rewatching Emmett fights. He argues Murphy's consistent decision wins show he is reliably better, while Emmett relies on KO power that is sporadic. He notes Emmett's age (40), long layoff, and accumulated damage, and believes Murphy's range, volume, and game-planning will allow him to outwork Emmett over five rounds. He predicts a decision win or a late finish.

Lerone Murphy by decision or finish in rounds 3-5
"I'm going to go with Lrone Murphy. I think he'll grapple as the fight goes on. And Emtt's 40 years old and he's taken a lot of damage."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane picks Murphy because he sees many ways for Murphy to win—using range, kicks, and avoiding overextension—while Emmett's path is narrow: a single big shot. He notes Murphy's adaptability and recovery, but acknowledges his tendency to start slow and make mistakes, which could be fatal against Emmett's power. Zane believes Murphy can avoid the one mistake that costs him the fight, given Emmett's predictable offense.

Murphy opened at -264, now -303; Emmett opened +216, now +246. Zane notes the line is not unreasonable but shouldn't get much wider.
"I'm gonna pick LaRone Murphy because I think there are a myriad of ways to beat Josh Emmett... There's only one loss one type of loss to avoid."
WIN vs Dan Ige
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 52 of 100 52% 78 of 133 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:17
Dan Ige 1 46 of 106 43% 52 of 116 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Dan Ige 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
2 Lerone Murphy 0 19 of 42 45% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Dan Ige 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:43
3 Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 26 61% 24 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Dan Ige 0 3 of 17 17% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 52 of 100 52% 36 of 77 12 of 17 4 of 6 37 of 80 12 of 16 3 of 4
Dan Ige 46 of 106 43% 35 of 92 5 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 79 6 of 16 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 17 of 32 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dan Ige 32 of 60 53% 27 of 53 2 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 39 5 of 11 8 of 10
2 Lerone Murphy 19 of 42 45% 12 of 31 6 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 1
Dan Ige 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dan Ige 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Over 2.5 rounds should be solid.
"Lon Murphy should win too clean of a striker to defensively sound I don't think he's going to get taken down and written out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

"give me Lon Murphy Lon Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I actually like Laurel Murphy quite a bit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I think this is just a really good fight for Laurent Murphy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

"I think it's going to be a clear Lon Murphy decision win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

"I think luron Murphy's going to be too smart for him too calculated"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

"Murphy grinds his fight out and wins it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

"Murphy will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 maybe a random scorecard goes out there for Ige but Murphy will have won it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I totally agree. Like just Ige is dangerous. If you give him something to counter, he's a lot less dangerous if you make him actually initiate of his own accord."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Lerone Murphy

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

"the win that i had expected him to get but it was he took the hardest path to get there"
WIN vs Edson Barboza
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Barboza vs. Murphy · May 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 79 of 242 32% 79 of 242 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 220 of 364 60% 259 of 410 4 of 6 66% 0 0 5:19
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 34 of 62 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
2 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 44 38% 17 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 41 of 75 54% 56 of 93 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:26
3 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 42 26% 11 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Edson Barboza 0 48 of 79 60% 52 of 86 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:25
4 Lerone Murphy 0 15 of 56 26% 15 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 59 of 93 63% 65 of 99 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:25
5 Lerone Murphy 0 11 of 47 23% 11 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Edson Barboza 0 38 of 55 69% 48 of 66 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 79 of 242 32% 38 of 189 15 of 21 26 of 32 77 of 239 2 of 3 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 220 of 364 60% 172 of 308 27 of 34 21 of 22 205 of 344 13 of 17 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 25 of 53 47% 14 of 39 2 of 2 9 of 12 24 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 34 of 62 54% 26 of 52 6 of 8 2 of 2 32 of 59 0 of 0 2 of 3
2 Lerone Murphy 17 of 44 38% 5 of 31 5 of 5 7 of 8 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 41 of 75 54% 36 of 69 4 of 5 1 of 1 37 of 70 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 11 of 42 26% 5 of 32 2 of 5 4 of 5 10 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 48 of 79 60% 40 of 70 6 of 7 2 of 2 43 of 73 5 of 6 0 of 0
4 Lerone Murphy 15 of 56 26% 7 of 46 4 of 5 4 of 5 15 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 59 of 93 63% 42 of 75 7 of 8 10 of 10 58 of 91 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Lerone Murphy 11 of 47 23% 7 of 41 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
Edson Barboza 38 of 55 69% 28 of 42 4 of 6 6 of 7 35 of 51 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Angelo leans Edson Barboza due to his veteran savvy, well-rounded skills, and recent win over a similar young striker in Sodiq Yusuff. He compares Barboza to Charles Oliveira in terms of danger everywhere. However, he worries about Barboza's age (38) and chin. Lerone Murphy is undefeated with good footwork and power, but Barboza's experience and ability to mix in takedowns could be the difference.

"I'm still going to lean Edson Barbosa we just watched him beat sadique yusf"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody acknowledges the similarities to the Yusuff fight but notes Murphy doesn't gas like Yusuff; Murphy conserves energy and improves in later rounds. He points out Barboza is 38 and has taken a lot of damage, and speed declines with age. Cody is concerned about Murphy's close split decision over Gabriel Santos, but ultimately picks Murphy, citing Father Time as an ally.

"I think I'm going to go Murphy man."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy has potential and mixes his game well, with solid cardio and grappling. Barboza is 38 and cutting to 145, which may affect his durability. Murphy can use clinch and takedowns to put Barboza in uncomfortable positions. However, this is Murphy's first five-round fight, and Barboza's experience is a factor. Expects Murphy to grind out a decision.

"I'm going to lean on the Murphy side I think that we see him grind out Barbosa here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

Paul sees this matchup similar to Barboza's win over Sodiq Yusuff, where Barboza's veteran savvy and cardio allowed him to take over late. He notes Murphy hasn't been tested in five rounds and lacks the volume that Yusuff had. Paul believes Barboza is a tough out for prospects without stout wrestling, and Murphy's wrestling isn't elite enough to neutralize Barboza's striking.

"I think it's pretty clear dog or pass here Edson Barbosa again just he's becoming that guy just like killing prospects as they try to rise up the ranks."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Edson Barboza

The MMA Guru picks Edson Barboza to win by body kick TKO in round three or four over Lerone Murphy. He argues that Murphy is less powerful and less dangerous than Sadik Yusuf, who Barboza beat. He notes Murphy's tendency to edge by wins and lack of a finishing move, while Barboza has experience in main events and the cardio to break Murphy down. He expects Barboza's speed and technique to prevail.

body kick TKO
"I'm actually going to go with Edson baroza getting a body kick TKO in round three or four after Lon gets Scrappy with him and starts to slow down"
WIN vs Josh Culibao
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 1 59 of 109 54% 87 of 144 3 of 5 60% 2 0 7:38
Josh Culibao 0 23 of 59 38% 40 of 77 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 18 of 37 48% 18 of 37 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:13
Josh Culibao 0 11 of 34 32% 20 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
2 Lerone Murphy 0 12 of 23 52% 24 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:39
Josh Culibao 0 7 of 16 43% 14 of 24 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:48
3 Lerone Murphy 1 29 of 49 59% 45 of 69 2 of 3 66% 2 0 3:46
Josh Culibao 0 5 of 9 55% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 59 of 109 54% 37 of 81 15 of 18 7 of 10 24 of 61 12 of 14 23 of 34
Josh Culibao 23 of 59 38% 16 of 48 5 of 6 2 of 5 19 of 53 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 18 of 37 48% 8 of 25 5 of 6 5 of 6 15 of 33 3 of 4 0 of 0
Josh Culibao 11 of 34 32% 7 of 26 2 of 3 2 of 5 10 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 12 of 23 52% 6 of 15 4 of 5 2 of 3 7 of 18 3 of 3 2 of 2
Josh Culibao 7 of 16 43% 5 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 29 of 49 59% 23 of 41 6 of 7 0 of 1 2 of 10 6 of 7 21 of 32
Josh Culibao 5 of 9 55% 4 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo favors Lerone Murphy's fluid striking and power, noting that Josh Culibao gets hit often. He mentions Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well, and the judges seem to favor him. He has a half-unit bet on Murphy at -145.

half unit bet at -145
"I've got to go with larone here though his striking is insanely fluid he's got a ton of power"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy by decision. He notes this is a different matchup than Murphy's last fight against a grappler, as Culibao has zero takedowns in the UFC. He thinks Murphy's striking and volume will be key, and he has hometown advantage in London. He believes even if it's close, the judges will favor the undefeated fighter in London.

by decision
"give me Murphy give me Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, noting his well-roundedness, accurate striking, and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's volume and home crowd advantage will secure a decision. He is surprised by the line movement and thinks Murphy is being disrespected.

"minus 130 seems very very fair for Laurel Murphy so he's a guy that I've had circled"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel leans toward Lerone Murphy, primarily due to potential hometown judging bias in London. He acknowledges Josh Culibao is a tough, scrappy fighter who finds ways to win, but thinks Murphy's volume and well-roundedness give him a slight edge. He notes that if the fight were in neutral territory, he'd view it as a pick'em, but in the UK, he gives Murphy a slight advantage. He expects a close fight, possibly a split decision.

Daniel says 'I'm gonna go later on by split decision' and mentions the line: Murphy -130, Culibao +110. He does not bet.
"I'm gonna go later on by split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Josh Culibao

James leans towards Josh Culibao as the underdog side. He thinks the fight is close and likely to go to a split decision. He notes that Culibao may have some advantages like takedowns but is open on the feet. He mentions that Murphy has power but Culibao has good recovery. James says whoever is the underdog is probably the side, and at +130, Culibao has value.

"I think whoever is an underdog in that spot is probably the side so I'd say cool about the side here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The host leans with Lerone Murphy, citing his physical advantages, explosiveness, speed, and power. He expects Murphy to land big shots and possibly knockdowns to thwart Culibao's pressure. He predicts a decision win but says he'll likely stay off the fight for betting.

likely stay off it for betting
"I'm gonna lean on the Murphy side here I believe his physical advantages his explosivity his speed his power will allow him to land those big shots on [ __ ] bow and grind this fight out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, citing his heart and ability to overcome adversity in his last fight. He thinks Murphy's jab and accuracy will win rounds, and that Culibao's level of opposition is low. He expects Murphy to chip away and win.

"I will take a little Murphy at home to get the job done"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy, initially considering Josh Culibao but reasoning that Murphy's poor performance against Gabriel Santos was due to short notice and injuries. He believes Murphy's composure and technical striking will outpoint Culibao, and notes the UK crowd advantage. The Guru also mentions Murphy's ability to find top position and his difficulty to finish.

"I've got to go with larone Murphy"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3 · Mar 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 93 of 161 57% 115 of 183 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:18
Gabriel Santos 0 69 of 122 56% 87 of 141 5 of 11 45% 0 0 4:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 33 of 58 56% 37 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Gabriel Santos 0 36 of 54 66% 37 of 55 2 of 4 50% 0 0 0:39
2 Lerone Murphy 0 25 of 44 56% 36 of 55 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:14
Gabriel Santos 0 13 of 32 40% 26 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
3 Lerone Murphy 0 35 of 59 59% 42 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Gabriel Santos 0 20 of 36 55% 24 of 40 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 93 of 161 57% 59 of 117 27 of 37 7 of 7 77 of 144 12 of 12 4 of 5
Gabriel Santos 69 of 122 56% 32 of 73 24 of 34 13 of 15 55 of 105 14 of 15 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 33 of 58 56% 18 of 39 12 of 16 3 of 3 29 of 54 2 of 2 2 of 2
Gabriel Santos 36 of 54 66% 16 of 31 13 of 16 7 of 7 29 of 45 7 of 8 0 of 1
2 Lerone Murphy 25 of 44 56% 13 of 30 10 of 12 2 of 2 18 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 3
Gabriel Santos 13 of 32 40% 8 of 22 3 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 27 4 of 4 0 of 1
3 Lerone Murphy 35 of 59 59% 28 of 48 5 of 9 2 of 2 30 of 54 5 of 5 0 of 0
Gabriel Santos 20 of 36 55% 8 of 20 8 of 10 4 of 6 17 of 33 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo thinks Murphy should win because he is the better striker with good footwork and power, and he has a full camp. However, he is wary of Murphy's layoff and the short-notice opponent. He notes Murphy's takedown defense is low but he scrambles well. He is staying away from betting due to the uncertainty.

"I do think larone Murphy wins this fight these odds are probably where they should be minus 275 was a little steep."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Murphy, citing his power (knockout wins over Makwan Amirkhani and Ricardo Ramos) and Santos' hittability and questionable durability. He notes Santos is dangerous everywhere but took the fight on short notice and is making a long flight. He predicts a second-round knockout, but acknowledges Santos could have success early.

"I'm leaning towards Murphy to get that knockout win here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Murphy, citing his precise striking, lateral movement, and high ring IQ. He notes Murphy has fought good wrestlers and defended takedowns well. He thinks Santos, on short notice, won't be able to take Murphy down and will lose a decision. He mentions Murphy's 16-month layoff is a concern but believes he's still a good fighter.

"I like Laurel Murphy because all those facts are true... I think that Murphy just moves laterally stays out of the way sticks and moves lands the more precise shots and uh eventually wins the fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy but expects a close fight. He notes that Murphy starts slow but is resourceful and has great cardio, often coming back to win. Santos is a solid, well-rounded fighter but may run out of ideas as the fight goes on. Connor also mentions the short-notice factor favoring Murphy.

"I'm gonna take Murphy, but I like the fight a lot."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Jacob picks Murphy but with low confidence due to his defensive wrestling holes. He thinks Murphy is the better striker but if Santos gets the fight to the ground, it could be trouble. He notes Murphy's takedown defense has been improving. He is not betting but would feel better if Murphy stuffs the first takedown.

"my confidence level right now I think those odds are correct it's probably like a five or or six for larone."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is explosive with big power and a good calf kick, but has grappling flaws and a layoff due to head injury. Santos is a short-notice replacement with a wild pressure style and defensive holes. Murphy's speed and power should exploit Santos's striking deficiencies, leading to a knockout. The fight doesn't go to decision is the favorite spot.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think it's going to be that speed and an explosiveness of LaRon Murphy that'll allow him to take advantage of the Striking defense deficiencies in Gabriel Santos's game"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy but hesitantly, as he hasn't done full research on Santos. He says Murphy is a solid fighter on a good run, but the layoff and short-notice opponent are unknowns. He says the pick is Murphy but could change after looking at tape.

"for the purpose of the show I'll pick Laurel Murphy but uh that could change based on me looking up some tape"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos, acknowledging Santos is a dangerous prospect but noting he is on short notice. Murphy has a full camp and has shown composure against tough opponents like Zubaira Tukhugov. He predicts Murphy will win a 29-28 decision after a rough first round, trusting his experience and well-rounded game.

Murphy wins by decision 29-28
"I'm going with Lerone Murphy over Gabriel Santos"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane also picks Murphy, noting that Murphy's ability to adapt and his physicality will be key. He points out that Santos looked good in his LFA fight but may struggle with Murphy's pressure and clinch work. Zane expects momentum shifts and a competitive fight.

"I'll take Murphy as well."
KO (knee) R2 0:14 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 4 of 6 66% 12 of 16 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 7 of 8 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 3 of 4 75% 11 of 14 5 of 6 83% 0 0 4:05
Makwan Amirkhani 0 0 of 0 --- 3 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
2 Lerone Murphy 0 1 of 2 50% 1 of 2 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Makwan Amirkhani 1 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 3 of 4 75% 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 4
Makwan Amirkhani 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lerone Murphy 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Makwan Amirkhani 4 of 5 80% 4 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision. He explains that Amirkhani is dangerous early with submissions but has poor cardio and gasses after the first round. Murphy is well-rounded with good striking and solid ground game. If Murphy survives the first round, he will take over and win a decision, likely dropping the first round. He suggests live betting Murphy if he survives early.

Murphy by decision; live betting Murphy after first round
"I'm going to pick him to win by decision i think maquon's very tough but i think he's i think he's a gasser."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody agrees Murphy wins but suggests betting live because Amirkhani usually doesn't get blown out early. He notes Amirkhani has takedowns in his last 9 fights but fades as fight goes on. Murphy's cardio and ring IQ should take over in later rounds. He prefers to wait for a better price live.

"i think i can just improve it by waiting three to five minutes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel picks Lerone Murphy, citing his heart and improvement. He notes Amirkhani fades badly after the first round due to health issues. Daniel believes if Murphy survives the early takedowns, he will pick Amirkhani apart. He highlights Murphy's ability to scramble back to his feet. Daniel predicts a third-round knockout.

predicts third-round knockout and 50k bonus
"i think euron murphy's going to knock up machuan amerikani out probably third round"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy will keep the fight standing and punish Amirkhani with leg kicks and power. Amirkhani needs takedowns but Murphy's takedown defense and striking should prevail. Murphy's power will be too much as the fight goes on, likely finishing in the third round.

Murphy by KO +150, Murphy in round 3 +850, under 2.5 rounds +100, fight doesn't go to decision -120.
"I think that lauren murphy survives the early onslaught on the ground uh keeps the fight vertical for the second and third round but eventually finds that finish in the third round."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy by decision at +165, noting Amirkhani's durability and wrestling. He thinks Murphy's striking and underrated wrestling will be too much, and Amirkhani will struggle to get takedowns. He expects Murphy to pick him apart on the feet and win a decision.

Murphy by decision +165 (DraftKings)
"laurel murphy by decision would probably be the way to attack this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The MMA Guru picks Lerone Murphy to win by TKO. He criticizes Makwan Amirkhani's mindset and cardio, noting that Amirkhani gassed against a short-notice opponent. He highlights Murphy's takedown defense, physical strength, and composure. He predicts Murphy will stuff takedowns until Amirkhani gasses, then finish with ground and pound. He also mentions Murphy's good knees in the clinch and body shots.

ko by ground and pound
"lauren murphy gets this one down he's got a strong base he's a physical specimen very strong for the featherweight division"
Dan Ige - Fight History
KO R1 4:56 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Hernandez · Feb 21, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Melquizael Costa 1 19 of 40 47% 26 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 7 of 11 63% 12 of 16 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:31
Melquizael Costa 1 19 of 40 47% 26 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 19 of 40 47% 9 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 13 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 7 of 11 63% 2 of 5 2 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Melquizael Costa 19 of 40 47% 9 of 26 7 of 9 3 of 5 13 of 29 4 of 5 2 of 6
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Melquizael Costa vs. Dan Ige

Round 1
Jacob Montalvo is the referee. Ige takes the center, kicks the leg and then lands a takedown. Costa is right back up as Ige presses him into the cage. Ige with a shoulder strike from the clinch. Costa is able to toss Ige to the canvas and then lands a knee to the body as his foe stands. They’re battling it out in the clinch, and Costa drives a couple knees to the midsection. Costa with another knee and then he shoves Ige away. Costa goes high with a kick, but Ige has his guard up .Another high kick from Costa is blocked. Costa follows yet another head kick with a front kick down the middle. Another front kick has hurt Ige, but he keeps his wits to survive a follow-up barrage from his foe. Costa steps in with an elbow, then lands a knee as he slides out of range. Ige forces the clinch, but Costa knees and separates. Costa follows a side kick to the body with a left hand. A leg kick lands on Ige. Costa backs up to the fence but leaps in with a knee.
With time winding down, Costa drops Ige with a beautiful spinning back kick to the jaw. Ige covers up on the canvas, and Costa unloads with about seven to eight standing-to-ground punches before Montalvo steps in to wave off the fight.
Costa has his sixth straight UFC win and in the process becomes the first person to finish Ige in 30 professional fights.

The Official Result
Melquizael Costa def. Dan Ige via TKO (Spinning Back Kick and Punches) R1 4:56
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Angelo picks Melquizael Costa, citing his speed, busy style, and well-rounded skills. He respects Dan Ige's toughness and experience but believes Costa is the rising star. He also suggests a plus 3.5 bet on Ige as a potential prop, noting Ige often wins rounds even in losses.

Suggests Dan Ige plus 3.5 as a prop bet.
"I got to pick Mel Costa."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2026 (13 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Big Brady picks Melquizael Costa to defeat Dan Ige, citing Costa's hot streak and superior minute-winning. He notes Costa has more tools on the feet, including kicks, and that Ige is hittable and tends to lose decisions. He is concerned about Ige's last performance against Pitbull, where he did nothing. He predicts Costa will win by decision, picking him apart with volume. He mentions the line moved from -120 to -185, indicating public money on Costa.

Melquizael Costa by decision; line movement noted
"I like Costa here. I kind of think it's just a Costa decision. Just picking apart Dan Ige, who is hittable, landing a lot of kicks, landing a lot of volume, and winning this fight on the scorecard."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody likes Ige at plus money, citing his recent performances against top competition (Diego Lopez, Lerone Murphy, Patricio Pitbull) where he won rounds. He thinks Costa's wrestling isn't proven and that Ige's cardio and power in later rounds give him an edge. He expects a decision win for Ige.

"I got a Dan Eay play out of this. And if you really want to get jiggy with it, like Eay's got knockout power. Do not overlook it, but likely Eay by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige but with caution, noting that Costa is an opportunistic fighter who has been winning but often in messy ways. He points out that Costa tends to fade in the third round and that Ige is durable and a good counter puncher. He also notes that Ige has been impossible to finish and that Costa's lack of process could be exploited by Ige's experience.

Ige opened +105, now +182; Costa opened -125, now -212
"I'm going to pick Danny Gaye, but it's a very uneasy pick and I have been wrong. I've been surprised by Costa all the way through."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)

The host favors Costa stylistically due to his size, length, and technical striking, but considers the odds too steep to bet. He notes both fighters are weak on the ground, and Ige has one-shot knockout power, making Costa a risky bet at -224. He passes on betting either side.

"This is one of those matchups where for me it's an easy pass. I favor Costa. He should win. The odds are too steep. There's no way I can justify a bet on him at these odds."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2026 (7 days before fight)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige as the betting side, believing Ige has better pocket boxing and power, and that Costa's cardio and durability are questionable. He notes that Ige has faced much tougher competition and that Costa's recent wins are over lesser opponents. James expects Ige to get a knockout, possibly in the later rounds as Costa fades.

"I am going to pick Eay as the betting side. I think that ultimately gets a knockout in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 17, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Melquizael Costa

Costa is on a five-fight winning streak with good activity and a kicking game that should trouble Ige. Ige is a veteran boxer but has struggled against high-volume strikers. Costa's range and kicks should keep Ige at bay, and he should land the more significant strikes. Ige could have success if he crashes the pocket, but Costa should win a decision.

"I still think he ends up landing more significant strikes, the better shots, the more eye-catching shots, and I think that leads to him winning this fight on the scorecards."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Ige's ability to win rounds against elite fighters. He points out that Costa has slowed down in later rounds and that Ige's takedown defense has improved. He thinks the fight goes to decision and Ige's experience gives him the edge.

"I want that plus money price tag for sure. Milk's a little unproven, right?"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige by TKO, feeling that Ige's composure and power will catch Costa. He notes that Costa sometimes throws lazy kicks and can be caught on the back foot. He believes Ige is the highest-level opponent Costa has faced and can time him for a KO.

TKO
"I think Dan Ige is going to get this one done by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane also picks Ige with the same caution, agreeing that Costa's success is partly smoke and mirrors. He notes that Costa is not a process-driven fighter and that opponents who are resilient tend to do better against him as the fight goes on. He believes Ige's counter-punching and durability will be key, but acknowledges Costa could win if he lands a big shot early.

"So I'm picking Ige too, but with exactly the same amount of caution. As you, I am prepared to be wrong."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 318: Holloway vs. Poirier 3 · Jul 19, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Patrício Pitbull 0 47 of 124 37% 59 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 55 of 97 56% 71 of 114 5 of 9 55% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Patrício Pitbull 0 6 of 28 21% 10 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:03
2 Patrício Pitbull 0 19 of 51 37% 19 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 37 of 58 63% 47 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:55
3 Patrício Pitbull 0 22 of 45 48% 30 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Dan Ige 0 11 of 26 42% 17 of 33 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:46
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Patrício Pitbull 47 of 124 37% 24 of 93 15 of 23 8 of 8 38 of 109 3 of 5 6 of 10
Dan Ige 55 of 97 56% 42 of 82 9 of 10 4 of 5 42 of 82 9 of 11 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Patrício Pitbull 6 of 28 21% 1 of 21 2 of 4 3 of 3 6 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 7 of 13 53% 2 of 8 2 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Patrício Pitbull 19 of 51 37% 10 of 38 6 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 37 of 58 63% 30 of 50 6 of 6 1 of 2 25 of 45 8 of 9 4 of 4
3 Patrício Pitbull 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 7 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 34 1 of 1 6 of 10
Dan Ige 11 of 26 42% 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 24 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, calling him a tough, durable journeyman who has fought top competition in the UFC. He is wary of the Patricio Pitbull trap after Pitbull's loss in his UFC debut. He thinks Ige's will and determination will carry him, but he won't bet on it.

Says he'll stay away from this one betting wise.
"Dan Eay is going to be the pick just off of raw will and determination."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 15, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige, citing Pitbull's age (38), declining durability, low volume, and lack of wrestling. He notes Ige has advantages in size, reach, volume, durability, and competition level. He predicts Ige wins by knockout, as Pitbull has been dropped recently.

Ige by knockout
"I got to go Eay here. ... I think Eay could potentially even knock out Pitle."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Connor believes Pitbull's patient counterpunching style is a great matchup against Ige, who tends to rush in and make mistakes. He notes that Ige lacks a range game and often gets hit while coming forward, which plays into Pitbull's strengths. He sees Pitbull capitalizing on Ige's aggression with counters and takedowns.

"This is a forgiving bounce back that will still make Pitbull look elite."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The host believes Ige's volume output and ability to manage distance and pace will be key to shutting down Pitbull's power striking. He expects Ige to have a competitive first round but then chip away and win on the scorecards.

"Look for Eay to have a competitive first round, but really start chipping away at pitbull and showcasing that he's winning and inching out each round here and winning it on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 16, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige over Patrício Pitbull, predicting a KO win. He criticizes Pitbull as a jack-of-all-trades but master of none, lacking dominant grappling or KO power. Ige is described as a short, stocky power puncher who can crack on the inside, similar to Michael Chandler who knocked out Pitbull. The Guru also references Pitbull's poor performance against Yair Rodriguez and believes Ige will put him away. He notes that Ige is a slight favorite and should be a bigger favorite.

Ige is a slight favorite and should be bigger (odds comment)
"I'm going with Dan Eay over Patriceio Pitbull."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Patrício Pitbull

Zane agrees, stating that Ige's style of rushing forward with flurries is exactly what Pitbull thrives against. He notes that Ige's lack of a range game and tendency to get hit while pressing forward will allow Pitbull to land counters and control the fight. He sees this as a much better matchup for Pitbull than the Yair Rodriguez fight.

"Dan Ige may in fact be the best matchup for him in the division."
WIN vs Sean Woodson
KO R3 1:12 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 0 44 of 107 41% 53 of 116 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Sean Woodson 0 51 of 115 44% 57 of 121 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 9 of 37 24% 9 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Sean Woodson 0 26 of 51 50% 26 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Ige 0 15 of 41 36% 17 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:32
Sean Woodson 0 18 of 49 36% 24 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
3 Dan Ige 0 20 of 29 68% 27 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sean Woodson 0 7 of 15 46% 7 of 15 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 44 of 107 41% 28 of 78 11 of 20 5 of 9 41 of 104 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Woodson 51 of 115 44% 36 of 98 7 of 9 8 of 8 51 of 115 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 9 of 37 24% 4 of 25 1 of 6 4 of 6 9 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Woodson 26 of 51 50% 15 of 39 6 of 7 5 of 5 26 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 15 of 41 36% 9 of 30 5 of 9 1 of 2 15 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sean Woodson 18 of 49 36% 15 of 45 0 of 1 3 of 3 18 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Dan Ige 20 of 29 68% 15 of 23 5 of 5 0 of 1 17 of 26 3 of 3 0 of 0
Sean Woodson 7 of 15 46% 6 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2025 (fight day)
Sean Woodson

Daniel Levi picked Sean Woodson but never got the price he wanted, so he passed. He emphasizes the importance of getting the best number and not forcing bets. He notes that even though Woodson lost, he saved money by not betting at unfavorable odds.

Passed on the bet because he didn't get the desired price
"I wanted to bet Shawn Woodson. I picked Shawn Woodson. However, I never got the price I wanted, so I passed."
LOSS vs Lerone Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lerone Murphy 0 52 of 100 52% 78 of 133 3 of 5 60% 0 0 2:17
Dan Ige 1 46 of 106 43% 52 of 116 1 of 3 33% 0 2 4:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lerone Murphy 0 17 of 32 53% 18 of 33 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:22
Dan Ige 1 32 of 60 53% 32 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:30
2 Lerone Murphy 0 19 of 42 45% 36 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:57
Dan Ige 0 11 of 29 37% 12 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:43
3 Lerone Murphy 0 16 of 26 61% 24 of 39 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:58
Dan Ige 0 3 of 17 17% 8 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lerone Murphy 52 of 100 52% 36 of 77 12 of 17 4 of 6 37 of 80 12 of 16 3 of 4
Dan Ige 46 of 106 43% 35 of 92 5 of 8 6 of 6 32 of 79 6 of 16 8 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lerone Murphy 17 of 32 53% 11 of 23 4 of 5 2 of 4 14 of 28 3 of 4 0 of 0
Dan Ige 32 of 60 53% 27 of 53 2 of 4 3 of 3 19 of 39 5 of 11 8 of 10
2 Lerone Murphy 19 of 42 45% 12 of 31 6 of 10 1 of 1 16 of 36 3 of 5 0 of 1
Dan Ige 11 of 29 37% 5 of 22 3 of 4 3 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Lerone Murphy 16 of 26 61% 13 of 23 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 16 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dan Ige 3 of 17 17% 3 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 12 0 of 4 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Over 2.5 rounds should be solid.
"Lon Murphy should win too clean of a striker to defensively sound I don't think he's going to get taken down and written out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

"give me Lon Murphy Lon Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I actually like Laurel Murphy quite a bit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I think this is just a really good fight for Laurent Murphy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

"I think it's going to be a clear Lon Murphy decision win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

"I think luron Murphy's going to be too smart for him too calculated"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

"Murphy grinds his fight out and wins it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

"Murphy will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 maybe a random scorecard goes out there for Ige but Murphy will have won it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Lerone Murphy

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

"the win that i had expected him to get but it was he took the hardest path to get there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I totally agree. Like just Ige is dangerous. If you give him something to counter, he's a lot less dangerous if you make him actually initiate of his own accord."
LOSS vs Diego Lopes
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 303: Pereira vs. Prochazka 2 · Jun 29, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Diego Lopes 0 42 of 77 54% 67 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:39
Dan Ige 0 49 of 100 49% 90 of 143 1 of 3 33% 1 0 4:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Diego Lopes 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 22 of 47 46% 23 of 48 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:23
2 Diego Lopes 0 8 of 12 66% 17 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Dan Ige 0 12 of 16 75% 51 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:10
3 Diego Lopes 0 25 of 41 60% 41 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
Dan Ige 0 15 of 37 40% 16 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Diego Lopes 42 of 77 54% 34 of 67 4 of 5 4 of 5 24 of 53 3 of 4 15 of 20
Dan Ige 49 of 100 49% 32 of 74 8 of 14 9 of 12 38 of 85 10 of 14 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Diego Lopes 9 of 24 37% 6 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 21 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dan Ige 22 of 47 46% 16 of 38 3 of 6 3 of 3 14 of 37 8 of 10 0 of 0
2 Diego Lopes 8 of 12 66% 6 of 9 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dan Ige 12 of 16 75% 6 of 9 3 of 3 3 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Diego Lopes 25 of 41 60% 22 of 37 1 of 2 2 of 2 11 of 22 1 of 1 13 of 18
Dan Ige 15 of 37 40% 10 of 27 2 of 5 3 of 5 13 of 33 2 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Ige vs. Diego Lopes
ODDS: Lopes (-275), Ige (+220)

Round 1
The sport never fails to surprise. As recent as a few hours ago, two-time former featherweight title challenger Ortega was planning on facing surging 145er Lopes (24-6, 3-1 UFC). That fight came together on quite short notice, and as a result, Ortega was unable to make 146 pounds comfortably—transforming the matchup into a lightweight affair. However, on fight day, Ortega fell ill and was forced out of the fight. In a first for the UFC, Xtreme Couture product Ige (18-7, 10-6 UFC), who trains in Las Vegas, is stepping up to serve as the latest-notice replacement imaginable. Again, this has never happened before. Ige hit the scale at 164.5 pounds today, making the 165-pound catchweight affair official—the magnificently mulleted Lopes weighed 161 pounds on the other side of the equation. The two will give it their all while referee Jason Herzog keeps things clean, and they decide to touch ‘em up before swinging for the fences. Lopes starts right out in the center of the cage, keeping his guard up to parry early jabs from the Hawaiian. Lopes lands a quick leg kick, ducks down and lets go with two fast punches. Ige comes in to swing, and Lopes dips to drive a counter knee up the middle. Ige counters on the way out, and they reset with Lopes pawing with a front kick. Ige misses a huge left hand, and Lopes catches him with a knee that spins his man around. Ige twirls and recovers without issue, evading the worst of the rest that comes his way. Ige shells up to protect against a few punches and a step-in elbow, and he lets Lopes bounce punches off his guard. Lopes sneaks in a knee, and he strings three punches around the guard as well. Lopes slams his shin on the outside of Ige’s front leg and flashes a jab, and the two in alternating stances hand-fight on the outer edge. Ige swings and misses, and Lopes meets him with a right hand before Ige backs off. Lopes whiffs with a jump knee, and he lands lobbing hooks from both hand. Ige prevents them from getting to him and pushes Lopes away, keeping his guard up to defend against a head kick that follows. Lopes winds up on a power right hand, and it is one-and-done as Ige lets it harmless clatter off the guard. Ige ducks down to race forward and engage in a slugfest, and Lopes drives him back with a combination punctuated with an uppercut. Ige walks through a low kick to shoot for a takedown, and Lopes hits the ground and instinctively snatches up a guillotine choke. Ige turns to the right direction, and Lopes adjusts his grip to set up a brabo choke. Ige keeps twisting and returns to his feet, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 2
The fighters jog towards one another to start the second round, where they share a fist bump. Ige is the initial aggressor, sliding in to deliver a straight left hand and slipping away to not get countered. Lopes chambers and fires a calf kick that spurs Ige into movement, and Lopes is ready for him coming in and tags him with a right hand. Lopes works on the front leg again, forcing a stance switch. Lopes tries to jab and is caught with a right hand behind the ear, and he shakes it off and meanders forward to let go with a leg kick. Ige returns fire with his own calf kick, prompting Lopes to loose a few body shots. A few jabs have opened a cut on the bridge of Ige’s nose, and he pays it no mind and slings a head kick that bangs onto the man with the mullet. Lopes grabs hold of it and chucks the Hawaiian down to the ground, where Ige scrambles and is quick to recover back to his feet. Lopes follows him and gets hold of him from behind, and he allows Ige to roll through so he can maintain the back control while locking down a body triangle in a hurry. Lopes softens Ige up with short, frustrating right hands, and he searches for a rear-naked choke but does not have a free hand to get it. Ige turns over to his knees, and Lopes adjusts his leg lock around the waist to keep Ige stuck in his grasp. Lopes smacks Ige upside the head a few times, and his search for the choke is fruitless as Ige maintains smart two-on-one wrist control. Lopes keeps bopping Ige with minor strikes, and Ige turns to his side and start slugging Lopes in the face with surprisingly powerful blows. Lopes transitions to an armbar with seconds to spare, and Ige turns over and rides it out to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lopes
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lopes

Round 3
Lopes offers a double glove touch and pats Ige on the side to initiate the final frame, and he backs away to commence offense. The Brazilian reaches out with a front kick while adjusting his gloves, and Ige walks through it and a low kick to back Lopes to the wall. Ige loops a left hand over the top that brushes Lopes’ hair, and he tries again and does the same. Lopes gets off six punches in a rapid flurry while Ige chucks one bomb, and Lopes is not concerned about the flamethrowing Hawaiian. Lopes gets out a jab, and Ige touches him with a right hand that briefly wobbles Lopes. Lopes fires back with an uppercut, and he appears to have his legs beneath him again in a hurry. Ige charges swinging punches, and he walks into a leg kick that disrupts his movement. Lopes rushes him and nearly completes a takedown, but Ige scrambles to burst back to his feet. Ige walks Lopes down, who may be flagging, and he has his right hand ready to release. Ige releases it. Lopes takes it on the temple and absorbs a subsequent uppercut, and he digs a left to the body and right to the head. A huge left hand from the Hawaiian knocks Lopes against the fencing, prompting a desperation single from the Brazilian. Lopes manages to turn the corner and drive Ige down to a knee, and Ige stands back up with a hook around him as Lopes tries to make him carry their body weight. Ige forces Lopes to slide off his back, and he lowers himself down to the guard to bust Lopes in the chops with fierce punches. Lopes ties him up with a closed guard to ride out the clock, and Ige sits up to nail him with a stiff right. Ige postures up to deliver a single elbow on the cheek, and he rains two more down and smiles. Ige drops right hands on the midsection, and he lets loose with a number of pounding left hands. Ige is pushed up to his feet from Lopes’ legs after Lopes gets tagged, and Lopes upkicks him and flusters him until the final horn sounds. No matter the result, these two men should be proud of their performances and simply the fact that the fight happened. History was made tonight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige (29-28 Lopes)

The Official Result
Diego Lopes def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Cody fades the hype on Diego Lopes and picks Brian Ortega. He argues that Lopes' wins are over lower-level competition (Gavin Tucker, Pat Sabatini, Sodi Yusuf) and that his takedown defense is poor. Ortega, on the other hand, has fought the elite of the division and has shown improved wrestling, taking down Yair Rodriguez, Alexander Volkanovski, and Max Holloway. Cody believes Ortega's experience, durability, and Jiu-Jitsu will neutralize Lopes' grappling, and that Ortega has multiple paths to victory including submission or decision.

"The fade train's going to roll into town here, we're going to go with T-City to take out Diego Lopez."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland picks Brian Ortega as the underdog, arguing that people are writing him off too soon. He notes that Ortega was a whisper away from submitting Alexander Volkanovski, and his grappling is at another level. Vreeland believes Ortega can hold his own on the feet and will get the better of scrambles. He compares this fight to Ortega vs. Yair Rodriguez, where Ortega proved doubters wrong. He also questions whether Diego Lopes is as good as Yair Rodriguez.

"I like the dog here I'm going Brian Ortega... people have been writing off Brian Ortega for some time... we're literally three fights removed from him damn near submitting Alexander volkanovski."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel is leaning towards Ortega (Ige) by decision, citing Ortega's durability, offensive wrestling improvements, and experience against top competition. He notes that Lopes has a poor record when fights go to decision (2-4) and that Ortega is 5-1 in decisions with the only loss to Volkanovski. He expects Ortega to weather early adversity and accumulate top control.

wins by decision
"I'm leaning towards Ortega by decision... I'm going Brian Ortega here to get past the early adversity and accumulate some top control."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Jun 27, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

Jeff Fox picks Diego Lopes, stating he is far more explosive on the feet, which is a concern for Ortega. He acknowledges Ortega's grappling is elite but notes that the Volkanovski fight was almost four years ago. Fox prefers the younger fighter who has been mowing through people and sees good value in the line. He admits it's a close matchup but leans Lopes.

"Give me Lopez... far more far more explosive on the feet that's got to be a concern for artega... I'll take the younger fighter who is just been mowing through people."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

The host does not discuss this fight at all in the transcript. The entire podcast is focused on the Conor McGregor vs Michael Chandler fight, which is not on the provided fight card. Therefore, no pick is made for this fight.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The host gives a slight lean to Diego Lopes, citing his momentum, confidence, and striking improvements. He believes Lopes has good enough defensive jiu-jitsu to avoid Ortega's submissions and should have a striking advantage. He notes Ortega has more high-level experience but thinks Lopes' style is perfect to beat Ortega. He mentions the line has moved from -160 to -125 and says he might bet if Lopes becomes the underdog.

"I'm going to lean ever so slightly with Diego Lopez... I think just where he's at in his career and going up against the guy in Diego Lopez who seems to have all the confidence and all the momentum in …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 26, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market loves Lopes but that Ortega has never been finished and has fought the best. He points out that Lopes has low striking volume and questionable takedown defense, while Ortega has a proven ability to win decisions or submissions. Paul also mentions that Ortega's experience against top competition gives him a clear edge, and that Lopes' hype is based on flashy finishes over lesser opponents.

"I agree with pretty much everything you said there. The market seems to absolutely love Diego Lopez this week."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 25, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Diego Lopes

The Guru picks Diego Lopes over Brian Ortega (note: transcript says Ortega vs Lopes, but fight card lists Lopes vs Ige; likely a mistake in transcript). He is confident in Lopes, citing his dangerous striking and submission skills. He believes Lopes will be aggressive from the start, while Ortega may be hesitant. He notes Lopes' short-notice advantage and year-round training. He predicts a first-round finish for Lopes.

finishes in the first round
"I'm going to go with Diego Lopez... I reckon he finishes him in the first round"
WIN vs Andre Fili
KO (punches) R1 2:43 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Pyfer · Feb 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 1 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Andre Fili 0 8 of 33 24% 8 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 11 of 19 57% 4 of 11 2 of 3 5 of 5 10 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Andre Fili 8 of 33 24% 7 of 28 1 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Feb 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo calls this a 50-50 fight. Dan Ige is a fantastic kickboxer with good BJJ and underrated wrestling, having defended 10 takedowns from Bryce Mitchell. Andre Fili has all the tools but a questionable chin and tends to brawl. Angelo thinks if Fili wrestles, he can win, but expects him to brawl, favoring Ige. He suggests this is a great live bet fight.

might be the best live BET fight on the card
"Dan eay is going to be the pick but low confidence."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Ige is durable (never knocked out or submitted), hits hard, and has fought top competition, while Fili has been knocked out multiple times and has questionable striking defense. He expects a stand-up fight where Ige's power and durability prevail, dropping and finishing Fili.

second round knockout
"I'm going to take Dan EA here I'm going to take him to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Ige, expecting a close decision. He notes Ige's durability and power, while Fili has been knocked out before. He thinks the fight will likely go to decision, with Ige's superior hand speed and pressure being key. Cody also mentions the Apex environment may favor Ige's impactful strikes. He suggests a prop on Ige by decision or the over 2.5 rounds.

fight goes to decision, over 2.5 rounds, Ige by decision
"I'm gonna go with Dan eay but again it's not like I love the money line specifically because this is going to be a very close competitive fight likely goes to decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige has crisp boxing, high fight IQ, and a great game plan. He should be able to counter Fili's unorthodox striking and potentially mix in grappling to open up his boxing. Fili has a reach advantage but struggles to land big shots against disciplined strikers. Ige's experience and reliability should lead to a decision victory.

"I think we'll see the better damage and better productivity come from the Dan eay side which would eventually go out there and allow him to get a decision Victory"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul also picks Ige, noting Fili's experience but questioning if his wrestling is enough to neutralize Ige. He thinks Ige's chin and power are key, and that Fili's volume may not be enough. Paul mentions a possible Ige knockout, but leans toward Ige on the moneyline. He also considers a sprinkle on Ige by KO in round 1 at +850.

Ige by KO round 1 (+850)
"Dan eay on the money line is where I'm going here as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige because he follows game plans well and performs against opponents just outside the rankings. He expects Ige to chop low kicks and work his way inside, finishing Fili in the second round. He notes Ige's wins over Damon Jackson and his competitive fight with Bryce Mitchell.

finish in the second round
"I'm gonna go Dan eay... I think he will find the finish on Andre Philly... chewing up Philly's legs and then finishing him at some point in the second round."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 23 of 40 57% 37 of 59 5 of 15 33% 1 0 7:33
Dan Ige 0 18 of 55 32% 32 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 1 2:11
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 14 of 22 63% 20 of 30 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:56
Dan Ige 0 10 of 25 40% 14 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 5 of 12 41% 13 of 23 1 of 5 20% 1 0 2:30
Dan Ige 0 8 of 26 30% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 4 of 6 66% 4 of 6 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:07
Dan Ige 0 0 of 4 0% 4 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 23 of 40 57% 13 of 22 7 of 14 3 of 4 17 of 29 1 of 3 5 of 8
Dan Ige 18 of 55 32% 13 of 47 3 of 6 2 of 2 16 of 51 2 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 14 of 22 63% 7 of 11 4 of 7 3 of 4 11 of 15 0 of 1 3 of 6
Dan Ige 10 of 25 40% 7 of 20 2 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 25 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bryce Mitchell 5 of 12 41% 3 of 6 2 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 1 0 of 0
Dan Ige 8 of 26 30% 6 of 23 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 1
3 Bryce Mitchell 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 1 2 of 2
Dan Ige 0 of 4 0% 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Dan Ige vs. Bryce Mitchell
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-205), Ige (+170)

Round 1
In the co-headliner spot, fans will be treated to a striker vs. grappler affair, at least on paper. Longing to take this fight to the ground, Mitchell (15-1, 6-1 UFC) would like nothing more than to hand Ige (17-6, 9-5 UFC) his first career submission defeat. On the other hand, the Hawaiian is hunting for his third win in a row, which would continue his run up the logjammed featherweight division. Referee Mark Smith draws the charge for this big fight, and he looks confused when Mitchell grabs a bible out of his cornerman’s hand and holds it up while screaming “Freedom.” When that odd moment ends, Smith clocks them in. There is no glove touch, as Mitchell is on a mission. Ige jabs to start the fight, and he counters a kick from Mitchell with a hard right hook. Mitchell wears it well and backs off when Ige chases after him to land a few punches. Mitchell pushes off with a side kick, and Ige misses a hook by a matter of inches. Ige clips “Thug Nasty” with a right hand, and Mitchell leaps at him to go after a double. Ige pushes him over, lands a punch that slips open a cut on Mitchell’s left cheek, and backs off. Ige is calm as a cucumber as he measures his opponent, and his third hook connects on the chin. Mitchell charges for a takedown attempt, and Ige defends the first try but gets tossed down on the second effort. Ige works his way back up and separates without much concern, and he blitzes with a winging right hook that just misses. Ige doubles up on a jab, and he counters a low kick with a left hook. As Mitchell recoils from the blow, his kick slaps into Ige’s cup. Ige is good to go, and Mitchell offers an apology from the accidental foul. Mitchell runs at Ige, where he does not get the takedown but does push Ige to the wall. The Hawaiian defends until he doesn’t, as Mitchell uses a body lock to put Ige on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in full mount, and Ige defends himself from any ground strikes. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Ige bucks to stop it. Ige turns to his side, swaying around to dodge all but a pair of punches. The round ends with Mitchell riding on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige

Round 2
Ige starts off the round flicking out several jabs, looking for his range so he can follow one with an overhand right. Mitchell pushes off with a front kick, and Ige belts him in the face with a left and a devastating right. Mitchell grimaces in pain and shoots in for a double, only to get turned around and elbows in the side of the head a few times. Ige stands him up, and the two jockey for position in the clinch. The Hawaiian slips away to restart in striking range, and damage has developed above and below Mitchell’s right eye. Ige loops a big hook on the busted eye, which splits open an enormous cut and draws some swelling. Smith calls time and brings in the doctor, but she clears Mitchell in a few seconds when Mitchell states he can see. When they resume, Mitchell tries for a naked takedown, and Ige tackles him over and lands on top. As Mitchell defends with rubber guard, Ige thinks better of the situation and stands back up. Mitchell follows after him, and he dives down after an ankle. Ige hops out of the way, parries a front kick and lands a right hand on the temple. Ige walks into a short left hand, and Mitchell times Ige’s blitz to take him off his feet and land right in mount. Ige keeps moving, turning to a side and then his knee. Mitchell follows him and takes his back with Ige leaning on the fence on his knees. “Thug Nasty” wrenches his right arm on the chin of his opponent, and he gets both hooks in and tries to flatten the Hawaiian out. Ige looks to slide out the back door, and Mitchell does not let him off the hook as he turns over to attack an arm-triangle choke. Ige defends it as Mitchell has him mounted, punching Mitchell in the side a few times. Mitchell lets go with the choke, and Ige bucks as the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Ige
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ige

Round 3
Mitchell is once more cleared to keep fighting, even with the swollen eye and the serious cut above it. Ige peppers that damaged eye immediately when the last round kicks off, with a number of jabs. Mitchell replies with a body kick, and he runs at Ige to grab hold of a single. Ige gets taken down, but he is quick to power back to his feet even with Mitchell clinging to him. Ige turns Mitchell over, until Mitchell slides his legs around to keep the back take intact. Mitchell locks down a body triangle, and he switches it to the other side when Ige tries to break it. Ige slowly, calmly looks to spin in this position, and Mitchell hangs on without offering any offense of his own. When Ige is about to escape, Mitchell slithers over to take mount while Ige is on his back. Ige still manages to get upright, and Mitchell stays tight to him like a cheap suit. Ige leans up against the fence and shakes Mitchell with all his might to get some space. Mitchell elects to lift Ige completely off the ground to throw him down, and Ige lands and switches things around to turn Mitchell to his seat. Mitchell grips both of his hands on Ige’s left arm for a possible armlock, and Ige keeps tight from on top. Ige sits up to lean on Mitchell, and he moves into mount with 10 seconds to spare. Ige is unable to land anything until the horn sounds, and this fight could go either way depending on how the second round is scored.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Ige)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Dan Ige via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Mitchell but with very low confidence. He notes Mitchell's wrestling is dominant and his control is phenomenal, but his personal life is a mess and Dan Ige is a tough, experienced opponent. He is staying away from betting this fight.

"Bryce Mitchell is going to be the pick insanely low pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Big Brady picks Dan Ige as an underdog, expecting a decision win. He analyzes Ige's past fights against wrestlers (Evalov, Korean Zombie, Bektich) and notes Ige was not controlled for long periods. He believes if Ige keeps the fight standing for at least half the fight, his striking advantage will win rounds. He thinks it could be a split decision based on damage vs control.

"I'm gonna take Danny gay to win this final actually say he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Cody picks Bryce Mitchell by decision, citing Mitchell's superior wrestling and physicality. He notes Ige's poor takedown defense (58% in UFC) and that Mitchell has dominated similar opponents. He acknowledges Ige's durability and power but believes Mitchell's game plan of takedowns and control will prevail.

"I think he's going to be able to get the takedowns and probably wins this fight by decision so he's my pick."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel thinks Mitchell's price is too high at -200 and sees value in Ige as a dog. He notes Ige's confidence is back after two wins, he's physical, and has never been submitted. He questions Mitchell's focus after a bad knockout and personal issues, and points out Mitchell's low striking output and reliance on takedowns. He believes Ige can win a split decision if he avoids extended grappling, and likes the plus money.

plus 170 moneyline; considering Ige by split decision
"I'm hoping at this plus 170 plus 180 where I might take a one or two unit shot that e get me to a split decision"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Lucrative James sees value on Ige at plus 170, noting Ige's power and takedown defense when fresh. He questions Mitchell's mindset after a loss and possible retirement talk. However, he acknowledges Mitchell could dominate on the ground. He considers a small shot on Ige but is not fully committed.

"I kind of feel like there's a little bit of value on Ige here at plus 170."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The host picks Dan Ige as a plus 180 underdog, citing Ige's takedown defense and BJJ black belt to neutralize Mitchell's grappling. He expects Ige to use his crisp boxing to draw out desperation takedowns and angle off, accruing damage on the feet. He notes Mitchell's striking is empty and only sets up takedowns, and that Ige's experience against better grapplers (like Movsar Evloev) prepares him for this.

"plus 180 I think Danny gets a damn good Underdog spot here to go out there and pull off the upside against Mitchell"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Paul also picks Mitchell by decision, despite acknowledging Ige's live underdog potential due to Mitchell's injuries and personal issues. He believes Mitchell's takedown entries are sharp and that he will stick to his wrestling game plan. He mentions Ige's durability but thinks Mitchell's wrestling will be the difference.

"I'm willing to give Bryce Mitchell the benefit of the doubt... I think I'm just gonna stick with Bryce Mitchell and go with the Mitchell by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, believing his grappling will be the difference. He notes Mitchell's poor stand-up but excellent wrestling, and thinks he can take down Dan Ige, who struggled with Damon Jackson's takedown threat. He acknowledges Ige's wrestling at Team Alpha Male but believes Mitchell's positional grappling is superior. He mentions potential value on Ige by KO if Mitchell is distracted by personal issues, but expects a composed Mitchell to outwrestle Ige.

maybe some value on a Danny gay KO in case...
"Bryce Mitchell versus Dan Eagle this is a good matchup and I'm gonna go with Bryce Mitchell..."
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 289: Nunes vs. Aldana · Jun 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Dan Ige 1 88 of 184 47% 88 of 184 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:41
Nate Landwehr 0 74 of 195 37% 74 of 195 0 of 4 0% 0 0 0:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Dan Ige 0 14 of 45 31% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nate Landwehr 0 12 of 44 27% 12 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Dan Ige 1 41 of 78 52% 41 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Nate Landwehr 0 30 of 69 43% 30 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Dan Ige 0 33 of 61 54% 33 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Nate Landwehr 0 32 of 82 39% 32 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Dan Ige 88 of 184 47% 61 of 143 19 of 31 8 of 10 78 of 169 6 of 8 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 74 of 195 37% 54 of 161 13 of 24 7 of 10 55 of 168 18 of 24 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Dan Ige 14 of 45 31% 8 of 34 4 of 7 2 of 4 14 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 12 of 44 27% 9 of 33 1 of 7 2 of 4 9 of 40 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Dan Ige 41 of 78 52% 28 of 59 10 of 16 3 of 3 34 of 68 3 of 3 4 of 7
Nate Landwehr 30 of 69 43% 20 of 57 7 of 8 3 of 4 23 of 59 6 of 7 1 of 3
3 Dan Ige 33 of 61 54% 25 of 50 5 of 8 3 of 3 30 of 56 3 of 5 0 of 0
Nate Landwehr 32 of 82 39% 25 of 71 5 of 9 2 of 2 23 of 69 9 of 13 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Angelo picks Dan Ige, but is cautious about betting. He acknowledges Ige is the better fighter skill-for-skill, but Nate Landwehr's relentless pressure and unpredictability could cause problems. He compares it to the Jaime Malarkey situation where a favorite was put in parlays and lost. He will keep Ige out of parlays and not bet on this fight.

"my pick is going to be Danny gay but I'm gonna keep him out of parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nate Landwehr

Big Brady picks Nate Landwehr to win a close decision. He notes that Landwehr is higher volume and can mix in takedowns, while Ige is more skilled but lower volume. Both are tough, but Landwehr's pace and wrestling could edge rounds. He expects a back-and-forth war and thinks Landwehr's activity will earn him the nod.

"I'm gonna say Nate landwer edges out a very very close competitive decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Cody picks Dan Ige by knockout, citing Ige's durability (Hawaiians don't get knocked out) and power advantage. He notes that Landwehr can get wobbled, as seen in the Julian Erosa fight. He believes Ige's quick hands and combinations will be too much for Landwehr, who tends to brawl recklessly. He took Ige by KO at +205, expecting a finish in round 2.

Dan Ige by knockout +205; round 2 guess
"I took Dan ige by knockout plus 205 which I believe is still out there on the market right now"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Connor picks Ige, emphasizing his technical improvement and durability. He notes that Ige has a great chin and has weathered shots from big punchers. He believes Ige's counter-punching and takedown ability will capitalize on Landwehr's reckless aggression. He also notes that Landwehr is not a technical fighter and often leaves himself open.

Ige opened at -224, currently -245; Landwehr opened at +195, currently +213.
"You got to take Danny."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Daniel Levi picks Dan Ige, citing Ige's crisp boxing and power, and noting that Nate Landwehr has poor striking defense and gets chinned in almost every fight. He references that Korean Zombie said Ige was the hardest hitter he ever fought. He believes Ige will knock Landwehr out, especially given Landwehr's tendency to get tagged up early. He mentions that if Landwehr survives the early onslaught, he could take over late, but he sees Ige as the cleaner, more experienced fighter.

"I see an igeko here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jun 10, 2023 (fight day)
Dan Ige

James picks Dan Ige to win, either by knockout in round one or by decision. He believes Ige is a level above Landwehr in MMA, with sharper boxing and heavier hands. Landwehr is a brawler who gets hit often and has been knocked out before. James thinks Ige's veteran savvy will prevent him from being dragged into a wild war, and that Ige will land the cleaner, more damaging shots. He notes Ige is four years younger and has faced better competition.

"I think ige just a level above in MMA man"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Ige's tight boxing and counter-striking should exploit Landwehr's wild aggression. Landwehr has durability concerns and has been knocked out before. Ige's power and accuracy should find a finish, likely in the second round. Landwehr could win if he overwhelms Ige with output and takedowns, but Ige's well-rounded game gives him the edge.

Ige wins by KO (round 2)
"I think he eventually finds a knockout in this fight give me Dan ige by knockout round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Paul picks Dan Ige, emphasizing Ige's endless cardio, speed, and experience against elite competition. He notes that Landwehr's wild brawling style leaves him open, and Ige's quick hand speed and combinations will clip him. He believes Landwehr's takedown threat is minimal because Landwehr prefers to stand and brawl. He expects Ige to win by decision or knockout, but his gut says knockout.

"I feel like ige is just way too fast stay to the outside better cardio Clips him at some point puts him over"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Dan Ige

The MMA Guru picks Dan Ige despite being a fan of Nate Landwehr, citing Ige's knockout power and Landwehr's tendency to get hit with his chin up. He notes Ige has finished fighters like Damon Jackson and Gavin Tucker, while Landwehr has been caught before. He predicts a late first-round KO for Ige, though he hopes Landwehr wins.

prediction of late first round KO
"I am gonna have to go with Danny gay here over Nate lambware"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Dan Ige

Zane picks Ige, noting that Landwehr's style is to build momentum without a foundation, which can be exploited by a disciplined fighter like Ige. He believes Ige will have many opportunities to counter Landwehr's wild attacks and that Ige's takedowns will be effective. He also notes that Landwehr is not as fast as Ige.

"I think he's just going to have a lot of opportunities in the middle of, of Nick land where trying to have a very fun, wild, cool brawl."
Expert Picks (11)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Angelo picks Lerone Murphy confidently. He praises Murphy's striking, footwork, and power, and believes he is too clean a striker for Dan Ige. He thinks Murphy's ability to mix striking and wrestling will keep Ige guessing. He also notes both fighters are tough and expects the over 2.5 rounds to be solid.

Over 2.5 rounds should be solid.
"Lon Murphy should win too clean of a striker to defensively sound I don't think he's going to get taken down and written out."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Big Brady likes Murphy in this fight, believing he has more paths to win and is better everywhere. He praises Murphy's striking in his last fight against Edson Barboza and notes that Murphy can mix in takedowns, while Ige has shown he can be taken down and controlled. He predicts Murphy will win by decision, doing better work on the feet and mixing in occasional takedowns.

"give me Lon Murphy Lon Murphy by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Cody picks Lerone Murphy, citing his well-rounded skills, reach advantage, and recent win over Edson Barboza. He notes that Ige is undersized, has poor takedown defense, and relies on power that may not translate against a longer, more technical striker. Cody believes Murphy's volume and precision will overwhelm Ige, and that Murphy can mix in takedowns if needed.

"I actually like Laurel Murphy quite a bit"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Connor picks Murphy, emphasizing that Ige struggles when forced to lead and lacks range tools. Murphy's jab and footwork can keep Ige at distance, and his size and reach advantage should allow him to control the fight. Connor notes that Ige is dangerous in the pocket but Murphy can avoid that by fighting at range.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I think this is just a really good fight for Laurent Murphy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Daniel Vreeland picks Lerone Murphy to win by decision, highlighting Murphy's volume striking and top-five potential. He notes that Murphy out-landed Edson Barboza with 220 significant strikes over five rounds and that Ige's toughness and power are his main advantages. Vreeland believes Murphy's skill set and minute-winning ability will carry him to a clear decision win.

"I think it's going to be a clear Lon Murphy decision win"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Lucrative James picks Lerone Murphy to win, citing Murphy's superior technical striking, fight IQ, and grappling upside. He believes Murphy is the better all-around fighter and can win via striking or takedowns. He acknowledges Ige's power and experience but thinks Murphy's calculated approach will prevail. He expects Murphy to look good and possibly call for a title shot.

"I think luron Murphy's going to be too smart for him too calculated"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Murphy is the better overall fighter with slicker striking and more damaging offense on the feet. He can also grind Ige out in clinch positions and take him down. Ige's boxing will be muzzled by Murphy's superior athleticism. Murphy wins on the scorecards.

"Murphy grinds his fight out and wins it on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Paul picks Murphy, emphasizing his reach advantage and superior striking. He notes that Ige struggles against bigger fighters and has never landed over 88 significant strikes in a fight. Paul believes Murphy's length and technical boxing will keep Ige at range, and that Murphy's takedown defense has improved. He also mentions that Ige's wrestling is not a threat.

"Murphy will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

The Guru picks Lerone Murphy by decision, arguing that Murphy's technical, well-rounded style is a bad matchup for Dan Ige. He notes that Ige struggles against fighters who can mix in grappling and fight at range, and that Murphy's jab, low kicks, and clinch work will outpoint Ige. He compares Murphy to fighters like Calvin Kattar and Movsar Evloev who have beaten Ige with technical breakdowns. The Guru acknowledges Ige's power but believes Murphy's discipline will earn a 29-28 decision.

"I'm going to go with Lerone Murphy by decision 29-28 maybe a random scorecard goes out there for Ige but Murphy will have won it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Lerone Murphy

Zane expected Murphy to win but noted he took the hardest path, getting caught early by a huge counter due to overstepping. He credited Murphy's durability and conditioning for bouncing back and winning. Zane emphasized that Ige is a dangerous pocket fighter with a great chin, but Murphy minded the pocket and won scrambles to secure the win.

"the win that i had expected him to get but it was he took the hardest path to get there"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lerone Murphy

Zane agrees with Connor, noting that Ige is a counter puncher who struggles when forced to lead. Murphy's jab and range management should neutralize Ige's offense. Zane points to Ige's losses to fighters who kept him at range and thinks Murphy can replicate that.

Murphy opened at -192, currently -260; Ige opened at +169, currently +221
"I totally agree. Like just Ige is dangerous. If you give him something to counter, he's a lot less dangerous if you make him actually initiate of his own accord."