Career Averages - Ilia Topuria
Career Averages - Max Holloway
Ilia Topuria
Max Holloway
Ilia Topuria - Fight History
AJ believes Topuria's hands are too precise and his boxing is too elite for Gaethje. He mentions that Gaethje's calf kicks and forward pressure give him a chance, but ultimately Topuria's striking is different and he expects Topuria to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 29 | 72% | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:01 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 16 | 56% | 10 of 18 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 29 | 72% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 3 | 18 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 16 | 56% | 3 of 8 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-440), Oliveira (+340)
Round 1
One way or another, lightweight history will be made tonight. Either Topuria (16-0, 8-0 UFC) will become the first undefeated two-division champ in UFC history, or Oliveira (35-10, 1 NC; 23-10, 1 NC UFC) will serve as the first two-time 155-pound king. The finish rates of the two are high, excitement is higher and the
fighter
that was
electrocuted in Thailand
on Sunday at a Weed Boxing show may be the highest. Locked and loaded, referee Marc Goddard has got this. Before the mayhem begins, the 155ers vying for the vacant throne share a respectful fist bump. It’s on with the show.
Oliveira is quick to deliver a hard leg kick, and they get right to swinging. Both men tag one another immediately, with the former lightweight champ hitting harder but suffering a cut on the eye. Oliveira rushes forward to grab hold of Topuria, searching for a body lock takedown. Oliveira tries to throw Topuria to the mat, but he ends up falling to his back. Blood flows from the eyebrow of “Do Bronxs,” who latches onto a leglock that drags Topuria to the floor. Topuria scrambles wildly to get his leg out, turning towards the Brazilian and exploding his way up. He slaps Oliveira with a few low kicks to either side, until Goddard tells Oliveira to stand. Topuria lets loose with swinging fists, and Oliveira clinches and throws him to the wall. Oliveira dips and delivers an uppercut on the chin, and Topuria goes to the body. Topuria’s power is maximum, as he unleashes a thunderous right hook and a lightning bolt left that sends Oliveira collapsing to the floor, completely unconscious. Before Goddard can get between them, Topuria hammers the nail with a couple brutal, unnecessary hammerfists. The snoozing Oliveira’s eyes stare into the void, and the void stares back into him until he regains consciousness.
While Oliveira has been stopped with strikes before, including taking a one-hitter quitter from Cub Swanson in 2012, no one has done that to the Brazilian at 155 pounds. The vacancy of the lightweight belt is now filled, and it is in the arms of “El Matador.” Topuria called his shot perfectly, claiming before the match that he would knock out Oliveira in the first round. He did just that, and the next question is who will be next for him. Three awaiting contenders are shown in the crowd: Justin Gaethje, Paddy Pimblett and Arman Tsarukyan. Topuria calls out Pimblett specifically, and declares, “If you think you are ready, come on you blonde b--ch.” Pimblett jumps out of the crowd to hurry into the cage, and politely gives Topuria credit for the hellacious knockout while patting him on the shoulder. “Paddy the Baddy” then announces that he will finish Topuria, and that “El Matador” could not knock him out. Topuria shoves Pimblett as dollar signs flash in the eyes of UFC executives, with the company apparently matching the fight right now. If that fight does materialize, it will be a big one, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Charles Oliveira R1 2:27 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria because he believes Topuria's boxing, footwork, and wrestling are superior to Charles Oliveira's. He notes that Oliveira has been rocked in almost every fight, while Topuria has only been dropped once and recovered to win. He acknowledges that Oliveira is a great grappler but thinks Topuria's wrestling is better and his hands are cleaner. He is slightly concerned about Topuria's size at lightweight but thinks he will get the job done.
Big Brady believes this is a bad matchup for Oliveira, citing Topuria's excellent takedown defense and power. He notes Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights and Topuria hits harder than anyone Oliveira has faced. Brady thinks the fight will stay standing, where Topuria will land big shots and potentially finish early. He also mentions that referee Mark Goddard is quick to stop fights, which favors Topuria. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Connor sees this as a bad stylistic matchup for Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira's losses come against fighters who aren't afraid to grapple with him and who pressure him, both of which describe Topuria. He also highlights Topuria's body punching and pressure fighting as key advantages, and believes Topuria's wrestling defense is sufficient to neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Topuria to finish Oliveira relatively quickly, either by knockout or by dominating on the ground.
The host believes Topuria can walk Oliveira down and land big power shots, setting up a knockout. He also notes Topuria might look to take the fight to the ground to submit the UFC submission leader, but ultimately expects a knockout victory.
The host picks Ilia Topuria by TKO, citing his crisp boxing, power, and ability to hurt Oliveira. He notes that Oliveira gets hurt by everyone and that Topuria's compact style will be difficult for Oliveira to grapple with. He predicts multiple knockdowns leading to a finish late in the first round.
Zane agrees that Topuria is a bad matchup for Oliveira. He points out that Oliveira's game relies on fear and aggression, and if an opponent doesn't respect his grappling, Oliveira can be beaten. He notes that Topuria is a pressure fighter who is comfortable in the pocket and has good takedown defense. Zane also mentions that Oliveira looked slower and more cautious in his last fight against Chandler, which is a worrying sign. He expects Topuria to win, possibly by knockout or by outgrappling Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 147 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 84 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 35 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 75 of 144 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 16 | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 79 of 204 | 38% | 47 of 151 | 13 of 30 | 19 of 23 | 79 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 30 of 75 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 32 of 62 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 35 of 102 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 3 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)
Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 47 of 107 | 43% | 47 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 35 of 77 | 45% | 36 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 26 of 52 | 50% | 26 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 15 of 38 | 39% | 16 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 55 | 38% | 21 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 1 | 20 of 39 | 51% | 20 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 47 of 107 | 43% | 21 of 68 | 11 of 22 | 15 of 17 | 44 of 102 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 35 of 77 | 45% | 17 of 53 | 12 of 16 | 6 of 8 | 28 of 70 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 26 of 52 | 50% | 8 of 29 | 7 of 12 | 11 of 11 | 24 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 15 of 38 | 39% | 4 of 25 | 7 of 8 | 4 of 5 | 13 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 55 | 38% | 13 of 39 | 4 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 20 of 53 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkanovski | 20 of 39 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 3 | 15 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkanovski (-118), Topuria (-102)
Round 1
We have reached the marquee matchup of the evening, and it is one that fight fans have been waiting patiently to watch for several months. Unable to secure a second title, Volkanovski (26-3, 13-2 UFC) will have to make do with attempting the sixth defense of his featherweight throne. Much has been said about his age, having recently turned 35, and he steered into it on fight week by donning an “Old Man Volk” persona. Eight years the junior of the champ, full of vinegar and that other thing, fired up unbeaten Topuria (14-0, 6-0 UFC) wants that gold belt, and to claim it he will have to become the first fighter to defeat Volkanovski at 145 pounds. No matter how this fight plays out, referee Jason Herzog will take care of the proceedings. When he brings the fighters together, they opt to touch gloves first. Topuria moves towards the center of the cage, and he blocks a quick head kick. As Topuria advances, Volkanovski snipes him with kicks high and low. Volkanovski paws out with a left and a body kick, and Topuria walks through them and retaliates with a sharp right hand over the top. Volkanovski times a kick to the body and continues throwing them to the lead leg and midsection, even flicking one up high as he keeps Topuria from reaching him. Volkanovski rips the body with another kick, and he pokes out a jab. Topuria winds up with a hard leg kick, spinning the champ all the way around, and Volkanovski recovers with a spinning back fist just in case Topuria was advancing. Topuria kicks the calf low with bad intentions, and he backs the champ off with an overhand right that glances off his guard. Topuria gets off another low kick, and he forces Volkanovski to change stances just a few in. Volkanovski dances out of the way of a short combo of fists, and he whips a kick up high to keep Topuria honest. Volkanovski delivers a calf kick back, and he follows suit with a body kick. Volkanovski paws out a left as Topuria charges, but Topuria manages to break through and sting Volkanovski with a right hand. Volkanovski bounces off the fence and shakes it off, where he peppers kicks to stave off the offense from the challenger. Volkanovski connects with a body kick and slips a huge punch, and he drives two heavy low kicks home to stumble Topuria. Volkanovski tags Topuria on the way in with a short left hand, and Topuria motions to him that his punches do not faze him. Volkanovski signals that he did land cleanly, and he shoots for a takedown only to break and knee the Georgian three times in rapid succession. The close round ends with a trickle of blood leaking from the bridge of Topuria’s nose.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The featherweights touch ‘em up in the middle of the cage, and Volkanovski is fleet of foot, darting in and out with jabs and kicks to any target he can find. Topuria crashes the pocket with two hooks, and Volkanovski rolls with them and shifts to the side. Topuria chases with an overhand right, and Volkanovski measures with jabs. Topuria lands cleanly with a right and then a left, and Volkanovski nods at him and clinches up only to knee the challenger on the break. Volkanovski connects with a right hand and a low kick as Topuria resets, and Volkanovski reaches him on the way back with a body kick. Topuria lunges to land a single punch, and the jabs from Volkanovski have opened the slight cut on Topuria’s nose again. Topuria knocks Volkanovski back with a right hand, and he digs a kick to the calf as Volkanovski changes stances. They snap out jabs at the same time, with the champion reaching more cleanly and frequently when they trade them. Volkanovski peppers the lead leg with kicks, and he drives a right hand into Topuria’s forehead to give him a moment of pause. Topuria lands a low kick, and Volkanovski gives him back one to the calf and one to the body. Volkanovski springs forward with jabs that have marked the face up of the challenger, and he does not slow in his approach of kicking to any target he can find. Frustrated with taking potshots from afar, “El Matador” charges like a bull. Volkanovski slips the oncoming fire, rebounding off the cage wall, but Topuria does not slow. Topuria unleashes a lightning bolt of a right hand that completely short circuits the champion. All the way out, Volkanovski collapses with his back to the fence, and Topuria dings him on the way down with a speedy left to follow. Herzog sprints between them to save Volkanovski from any further punishment, as the champion is no longer conscious—and no longer the champion. Topuria hammers any final nail with a few right hands until Herzog reaches him to pull him off of the downed Aussie. Incredible! Spain and Georgia now have a UFC champion, and his name is Ilia Topuria. The new champ is now an undefeated 15-0 with 13 finishes, with none bigger than this stunning moment. Topuria springs the only betting upset of the evening, starching one of the greatest to ever do it with one monumental punch. Welcome to the Topuria era.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Alexander Volkanovski R2 3:32 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkanovski, citing his dominance at featherweight and well-rounded skills. He acknowledges Topuria's power and wrestling but notes Topuria hasn't faced anyone as skilled as Volkanovski. He is concerned about Volkanovski's recent knockout loss but believes he has defied age-related stats before. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision. He argues that Topuria hasn't proven himself against top competition, with his best wins being Bryce Mitchell and an aging Josh Emmett. He believes Volkanovski is on another level, having beaten Max Holloway three times and Jose Aldo. He acknowledges the narratives about Volkanovski's age and drinking but thinks the line is too close, calling a Topuria win a major upset.
Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing Volkanovski's status as the featherweight GOAT and his near-win over Islam Makhachev. He questions Topuria's competition level (Jay Herbert, Bryce Mitchell, Josh Emmett) compared to Volkanovski's resume. He notes Topuria's potential cardio issues in the fifth round, as he took off the fifth against Emmett. He favors the champ's pressure and volume at even money.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing a changing of the guard. He emphasizes Topuria's youth, less damage taken, and well-rounded skills including submission grappling and striking. He notes Volkanovski's recent knockout loss, weight cut issues, and age as concerns, but says his pick was made before those factors. He believes Topuria can match Volkanovski's output and has the heart to survive adversity, as shown in his comeback from head kick knockdowns.
Volkanovski is the most complete featherweight possibly ever. He will execute a master game plan, stifle Topuria's power punching, and grind on the mat. Topuria is a high-level prospect but this is a huge step up. Expects Volkanovski to hand out a veteran lesson and win by decision.
Paul believes the line is skewed by Volkanovski's short-notice loss to Makhachev. He thinks Volkanovski can secure takedowns and hang out in guard, avoiding Topuria's power. He cites Volkanovski's volume, pace, and experience against top competition like Brian Ortega. He feels the line should be closer to -175, so even money is a trap in his favor.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria, citing his power, grappling, and momentum. He notes Volkanovski's recent KO loss to Makhachev, his drinking, and the weight cut. He believes Topuria's boxing and power will be key, and that Volkanovski's chin may be suspect. He predicts a KO in round two, with Volkanovski complaining about an early stoppage.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 87 of 305 | 28% | 89 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 152 of 344 | 44% | 171 of 365 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 14 of 68 | 20% | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 21 of 56 | 37% | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 19 of 68 | 27% | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 31 of 81 | 38% | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 37 of 91 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 13 of 52 | 25% | 15 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 1 | 56 of 100 | 56% | 62 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 10 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Josh Emmett | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:33 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 87 of 305 | 28% | 43 of 232 | 26 of 53 | 18 of 20 | 87 of 305 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 152 of 344 | 44% | 124 of 302 | 9 of 16 | 19 of 26 | 114 of 289 | 2 of 2 | 36 of 53 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 14 of 68 | 20% | 8 of 58 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 14 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 21 of 56 | 37% | 14 of 47 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 21 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 68 | 27% | 8 of 47 | 6 of 15 | 5 of 6 | 19 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 30 of 75 | 40% | 25 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | 25 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 31 of 81 | 38% | 16 of 60 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 31 of 81 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 37 of 91 | 40% | 30 of 80 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 37 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Ilia Topuria | 13 of 52 | 25% | 6 of 39 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 56 of 100 | 56% | 50 of 90 | 2 of 6 | 4 of 4 | 26 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 28 of 43 | |
| 5 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 36 | 27% | 5 of 28 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Josh Emmett | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-320), Emmett (+265)
Round 1
We have reached the main event after a fairly lengthy midday event. It should be a treat that presents a great deal of excitement, giving the Jacksonville fans one last brawl. Coming off an unsuccessful shot at the interim strap, Emmett (18-3, 9-3 UFC) wants to show at 38 he is not done yet. On the other side of the equation, 12 years Emmett’s junior, Topuria (13-0, 5-0 UFC) is undefeated and fast on the rise with violence in spades. Chins will almost certainly be tested before it is all said and done, and referee Marc Goddard receives the honor of officiating this hopefully thrilling headliner. There is nothing but respect between the two, as they tap their gloves together before the hostilities commence. Emmett blitzes forward right out of the gate, making the Georgian retreat early as Emmett bears down on him. Topuria is no worse for wear, and Emmett targets the body and head with surges of punches. Emmett circles around his relatively stationary adversary, and he stumbles as he drops low. Emmett gets up and goes back to potshotting Topuria with power range punches. Topuria sits down on a right hand counter, giving Emmett a little pause to advance recklessly. The two start trading furiously from up close, and Topuria backs off and targets the body. Emmett takes a solid right hand on the jaw, and he keeps moving and swaying. Topuria reaches him with an uppercut to the midsection, and he leans back from a swatting combo coming back at him. They trade left hooks, and Topuria flicks out several jabs to mark up Emmett’s face. Emmett throws so hard he nearly falls over, putting everything he has into his punches. Topuria’s guard is able to protect him from the worst of the blows, and he sees the wide looping right hands from afar. Topuria lands a low kick and keeps active with a jab, and he absorbs a flush right hand on the cheek. Topuria drills a kick that makes Emmett turn around, and he intercepts an advancing Emmett with another calf kick and a jab. A cut on the corner of Emmett’s eye opens up, and Emmett ignores it and throws caution to the wins with a chopping kick and an overhand right. Topuria jabs his way into an exchange, and Emmett is right there to stand and bang. Emmett reaches out with a right hand, and he clips Topuria with a check left hook while Topuria is backing away. Topuria closes in and wings two punches, and the tense round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
The second round opens with a glove touch, and the swelling around Emmett’s left eye has grown. Emmett strikes first with a leg kick, and he comes up just short with two looping hooks. Topuria jabs effectively to stifle Emmett’s best offense, and Emmett responds with multiple body shots. Topuria chops at the lead wheel and pokes out with a jab, which reminds Emmett that he can also jab as well. Emmett lunges with a few punches, and the low kick at the end of his strikes connects. Topuria pulls back on a few big strikes, and Emmett closes in and pops him with a left hook. Topuria does not let him off the hook, landing with his own blow. Emmett lumps up the calf with a kick, and he charges in with four punches. Topuria counters him cleanly with a single right hand to make Emmett think twice, and he settles down with a hard low kick. Topuria beats Emmett to the punch with a right hook, and his speed is giving Emmett fits thus far. Emmett checks a low kick and wings a right hand that glances off the side. Topuria is frequently moving when Emmett loads up on his big right hook, and this lets very few of them land flush. The jabs from Topuria have bloodied up Emmett’s nose as well, and it snaps out and is met with a left hook on the way in. Topuria chains a few punches together and backs off when Emmett bullrushes him. Emmett slips on the way in, and Topuria takes advantage of this by smashing him in the face with a right hand. Emmett gets his back against the ropes, and he swings with bad intentions and drops Topuria. The Spanish/Georgian fighter scampers back to his feet and is not overly concerned, and he returns to his tactic of jabs and low kicks. Emmett brushes his right hand over the hair, and he checks a kick on the way back. Topuria slides out of the way of a big shot from Emmett, and he cracks the Californian with a right hand. Emmett drops to his hands, and Topuria rushes down and starts smacking him upside the head. Topuria lets go when Emmett rears back with a right hand, and the second frame wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
The two reach the third round and begin trading, and Topuria slides back and kicks the lead calf of Emmett. Emmett staggers from the damage, and he gathers his thoughts and wings an overhand right. Topuria comes at him throwing two big shots, and Emmett goes high with a kick. Emmett slams his shin on the calf twice, and he jabs Topuria when Topuria closes the distance. Emmett chips with another kick and misses with an overhand right, and Topuria just comes up short with his own counter. As Emmett ducks down to throw him off, Topuria follows him. Emmett catches Topuria with a left hook, and Topuria snipes him with a left hook back and connects with a leg kick. The featherweights crash together with fierce fists, and Emmett tags Topuria with a few huge punches. Topuria gives it right back, and he slashes open a cut on the cheek while also advancing Emmett’s swelling. Emmett stings Topuria with a right hand on the temple, and they clack their shins together with simultaneous kicks. Emmett digs a left to the body, and he is intercepted with a short right hand. Topuria knocks his man back with a jab, and he eats a clean right hand without batting an eye. Topuria measures Emmett with accurate jabs and follow-up punches, while Emmett meets him in the middle and bangs. Emmett walks through a leg kick, and they proceed to swing for the fences. Topuria snaps his jab out brilliantly, and Emmett’s left eye is almost closed. Emmett uses his own jab to decent effect, but its volume is nowhere near the unbeaten fighter’s. Topuria strings a few punches together to bust Emmett’s face up badly, and the side of it is covered in red. Emmett ducks a few punches to counter, and he pops Topuria in the chops with a left hook. Emmett beats Topuria to the punch with a right hand, and he waves Topuria on to brawl with him. Emmett overswings with his punches, and he targets the body and lead calf as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Emmett
Round 4
We have ourselves a fight as the two reach the championship rounds, and they clap hands to get started. Emmett wades into the fray, landing at the end of a few punches as Topuria’s movement has slowed to a small degree. Emmett blitzes, and Topuria hops out of the way to evade most of the strikes. Topuria sticks out a jab, and he pins a one-two on the chin when Emmett chops at his calf. Topuria flicks out a few more jabs, and Emmett goes over the top with a big right. Topuria continues to work his jab, and Emmett aims a punch to the chest and one to the ribs. Topuria nails his foe with a leg kick, and Emmett has to hop back for a second to get his bearings. Emmett reaches out with a right hook, but Topuria is able to lean back and zip out a few jabs and a one-two. Emmett looks for a left to the body, and he gets his calf kicked and he squats down after it lands hard. Emmett rushes with looping shots that Topuria is able to avoid without problems, and when that one fails, he blitzes a second time. The body shot from Emmett does score, and Topuria’s jab snaps Emmet’s head back. Topuria times a big right hand to counter with one of his own, and he spins away before Emmett can reach him. Two punches from Topuria knock Emmett off-balance, and he learns that he is in trouble before his body does. Emmett falls to the ground, and Topuria beats on him in an effort to stop the fight. Emmett’s toughness is off the charts, as he survives the barrage of unanswered punches and gets back to his feet. Emmett climbs up with the fence behind him and wings power punches, but Topuria is faster and more accurate. A vicious leg kick and second flurry from “El Matador” knocks Emmett of his feet again, and he jumps straight into mount and tries to finish the job with his fists. Topuria drops down punches and hammerfists, and Emmett turns to his stomach and manages to survive to the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Topuria
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 5
Between rounds, Goddard calls in the doctor to check on the swelling and damage of Emmett’s face. Emmett is able to pass the vision tests, and he informs Goddard he is more than willing to keep fighting despite his disfigurement. The two featherweights touch ‘em up one final time to begin the last round, and Emmett is a man possessed. Emmett charges with everything he has, and he rocks Topuria with a huge right hand. Topuria bounces off the fencing several times, in a surprisingly bad way, and Emmett gives chase swinging bombs. Emmett checks a kick, and Topuria gets back to his rhythm of jabs and calf kicks. Emmett hops around to get some feeling back in his leg, and he kicks with his other one. Emmett walks through a jab to lob a left hook, and he is throwing haymakers that Topuria is barely dodging. Emmett whiffs on a huge left hand, and he kicks the calf while Topuria is jabbing him. Emmett strikes the body and fires off massive hooks, and Topuria sees them coming and blocks them. Emmett reaches Topuria with a shovel left hook, and Topuria keeps moving so that he does not present as a stationary target. Emmett goes to the body with a left and bring a right over the top, and he swings with a subsequent left that opens him up to a takedown attempt. Topuria lands in half guard from his successful double, and Emmett turns to his side and works to a knee. Emmett wipes at his badly swollen eye as Topuria holds on from behind, although he cannot explode back up to his feet. Topuria clings to Emmett as precious seconds tick off the clock, and he manages to hit a mat return. Emmett scrambles, and the two roll around until Topuria follows to get the back again. Emmett works his way up, thanks in part to a fence grab, and Topuria wrenches him right back down. Topuria takes the back and flattens Emmett out for a moment, but Emmett turns to his side once more as he uses all of his last remaining energy to get up. Topuria punches Emmett on the side of the head a few more times for good measure, and Emmett muscles his way to his feet right at the sound of the final bell. These two featherweights have gone the distance after five violent rounds, and the stock of the younger Topuria is going to climb significantly after this excellent showing. Topuria will advance himself to a clean 14-0 as a pro, with two decision wins on his ledger now. In victory, “El Matador” declares himself as “the next guy” for the featherweight belt, and he wants to take on Alexander Volkanovski to become the first one to beat him at this weight class. There is little time to savor this, as the UFC train will keep on rolling. The next show will be in the UFC Apex in a week, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-45 Topuria)
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (50-45 Topuria)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria (49-46 Topuria)
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Josh Emmett via Unanimous Decision (50-44, 50-42, 49-45)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria, citing his phenomenal wrestling, speed, power, and ability to adjust on the fly. He notes Topuria is the better wrestler, faster, and hits just as hard as Emmett. He acknowledges Emmett has insane power and Topuria has been rocked before, but outside of a lucky punch, Emmett won't have much to offer. He says the 3-to-1 odds seem correct.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria, believing he should win but notes the line is wide. He emphasizes Topuria's elite grappling and BJJ black belt, which he should use to take Emmett down. He has concerns about Topuria's cardio if the fight goes deep and his tendency to get hit, as seen against Jai Herbert. He predicts a first-round submission, but acknowledges a knockout is possible. He notes Emmett's power and age (38) as factors.
Cody picks Topuria but with hesitation, citing concerns about Topuria's cardio in a five-round fight and the step up in competition. He notes Emmett's power and experience, and suggests this fight is better for live betting. He ultimately sides with Topuria due to youth and skills but is wary of the hype.
Connor picks Topuria, focusing on the question of whether Topuria can fight outside the pocket and if Emmett can keep him out. He argues that Emmett is a potshotter who struggles when opponents force prolonged exchanges, as seen against Yair Rodriguez. Connor believes Topuria's boxing defense and counter-punching are reliable against Emmett's headhunting, but notes the massive caveat that Emmett's power is a constant threat, especially given Topuria's history of being hurt.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (12 years younger), superior boxing, and better jiu-jitsu. He believes Topuria will outbox and finish Emmett in the mid to late rounds. He acknowledges Emmett's power and wrestling but thinks Topuria's cardio concerns are overblown, noting Topuria's short-notice fight against Yusuff. He also mentions Topuria's ability to mix in takedowns and his overall versatility. He is not betting at -310 but is confident in the pick.
The host picks Ilia Topuria to win but is hesitant due to the line being too wide at around -300. He notes that Josh Emmett has tremendous experience against high-level competition and that Topuria hasn't proven himself against a fighter of Emmett's caliber. He suggests value on Emmett's side and expects violence, possibly a finish from either fighter. He ultimately goes with Topuria but advises against betting the moneyline at current odds.
Paul picks Topuria, acknowledging his elite boxing and jiu-jitsu, but notes the only question mark is his chin after being dropped by Jai Herbert. He thinks the line is accurate and that Topuria outclasses Emmett in many departments, but he won't tie himself financially to this fight.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's youth (26 vs 38), longer layoff without damage, and superior combination punching. He notes Emmett's tendency to throw only 1-2 shots before resetting, while Topuria strings together multi-punch combinations with pauses that can catch Emmett coming out of his own exchanges. He also mentions Emmett's quick turnaround after a war with Yair Rodriguez and brutal weight cuts as potential factors. However, he acknowledges both have one-punch KO power and calls it a dangerous fight, closer to 60-40 than the lopsided public polling suggests.
Zane picks Topuria, emphasizing that Emmett's style is vulnerable to aggressive pressure fighters who don't respect his power, as seen in losses to Yair Rodriguez and Jeremy Stephens. He notes Topuria's superior boxing technique and body punching, but acknowledges the risk of Topuria's recklessness and Emmett's one-shot power. Zane sees Topuria as the more skilled pocket fighter but warns that Emmett could land a fight-ending shot at any moment.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 36 of 82 | 43% | 46 of 94 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 1 | 40 of 77 | 51% | 53 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 31 of 64 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 1:29 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 17 of 38 | 44% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 15 of 30 | 50% | 15 of 30 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 1 | 23 of 39 | 58% | 26 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 36 of 82 | 43% | 22 of 57 | 11 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 34 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 40 of 77 | 51% | 34 of 63 | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 29 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 52 | 40% | 13 of 38 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 17 of 38 | 44% | 12 of 27 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 15 of 30 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 14 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Bryce Mitchell | 23 of 39 | 58% | 22 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)
Round 1
In this main card opener, only one undefeated fighter will remain shortly. Entering into his seventh outing as a UFC fighter, “Thug Nasty” Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC) would very much like to spoil the fellow perfect record of Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC), all while sporting special camouflage fight shorts. Topuria does not receive special apparel, but he does celebrate a 92% finish rate that could play a factor very soon. 2022 Referee of the Year award winner Marc Goddard is on the call for this important featherweight pairing, and the fighters he oversees do not bother touching gloves first. Topuria stays low, and he wades forward into action. After Mitchell leads off with a kick to the knee and a side kick, Topuria blasts the Arkansas native in the face with four powerful punches. Topuria digs into the lead calf with a kick to force an immediate stance switch, and Mitchell shoots in for a takedown that fails. Topuria meet him in the middle and catches Michell cleanly with a right hand, and Mitchell responds with a few solid jabs and a low kick. Topuria connects with a right hand down Broadway, and Mitchell replies with a left. The single hooks from Topuria get around the guard and get Mitchell’s attention, with his right finding the target again and again. Mitchell tosses out a front kick that aims at the face, and he shoots for a failed takedown that Topuria easily avoids. As they clash together, a cut opens on the inner left eyebrow of the American. Mitchell lines up two punches and changes levels for a low single, but Topuria springs away to push his back to the wall. Topuria nearly turns things around, forcing Mitchell to drop to a knee, and ultimately stopping the entry. Mitchell releases the clinch and gets off a body shot, but Topuria rings his bell with an overhand right. “El Matador” throws two punches so hard he stumbles, but Mitchell does not capitalize on this and instead allows Topuria to return to striking stance. Topuria dodges a kick and uses head movement to work his way in, and Mitchell crashes forward and practically tackles Topuria to put him on his back. “Thug Nasty” lands in half guard, but Topuria pulls him back to the guard and boxes the ear from off his back. Mitchell scores a few punches, but Topuria stings him with a left hand off his back. Mitchell rides out the top position until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 2
Mitchell starts the second round rushing forward, but ultimately he walks into two lightning-quick punches. Mitchell attempts to respond with a side kick, but Topuria pushes it aside and stuffs a takedown try. When Mitchell stands up, Topuria nails his man in the face with a pair of strikes. Mitchell recovers and gets backed off by the swinging offense of his opponent, and they clash together again and may bump heads, but Mitchell cannot ground him with another effort. Mitchell looks to time the overhand right with takedown tries, but time and time again, he falls short. Topuria overthrows a punch, and Mitchell gets his attention with a short combo that fires up the crowd. Topuria sets up an uppercut with two punches to follow it, and he knocks the Arkansan off his feet and down to the mat. Topuria leaps down to possibly pull off a neck-based choke, but a bloodied Mitchell welcomes this so that he can set up a scramble or go for a submission. Topuria does not let him off the hook, bludgeoning him repeatedly with thunderous blows until Mitchell works his way up. Mitchell attempts to get a takedown when Topuria is laying into him, but Topuria throws him over to the mat like a kid wrestling with his dad. A deflated Mitchell tries with all his might to turn or twist, and he manages to sit up. This is not the best position for him, as Topuria snatches on to a seated arm-triangle choke and hurls Mitchell back down, with the submission exceptionally tight. The submission specialist Mitchell, who had won 15 fights as a pro – the loss the UFC claimed took place on “The Ultimate Fighter” and was an exhibition match – surrenders for the first time in his career. This is a massive victory for Topuria, who stamps himself as a featherweight contender and calls for a UFC card in Spain.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Bryce Mitchell R2 3:10 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo is extremely confident Topuria wins, calling him a world-class wrestler from Georgia who can outstrike and outwrestle Mitchell. He compares it to Roman Dolidze vs Jack Hermansson, where the world-class wrestler dominated. He has a moneyline bet on Topuria placed earlier and is shocked Topuria isn't a 9-1 favorite. He believes Mitchell's Arkansas wrestling is no match for Topuria's lifelong Georgian wrestling.
Big Brady slightly leans toward Bryce Mitchell as a dog, citing Mitchell's superior cardio and wrestling. He notes Topuria has shown cardio issues in his only decision win, while Mitchell has improved striking and can push a pace. He expects a back-and-forth war with Mitchell edging out a split decision, but has low confidence.
Cody picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his development, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He thinks Mitchell's pressure and takedowns will be key, and that Topuria's wrestling may not be enough to stop him. He notes Topuria's close fight with Herbert Burns and that Mitchell has better cardio and can take over late. He predicts Mitchell by decision.
Connor picks Mitchell, citing his versatility, wrestling, and ability to take advantage of opportunities. He notes Topuria has a narrow approach and Mitchell has proven he can adapt and take fights where he wants. Connor believes Mitchell's takedowns and top control will be decisive, as Topuria hasn't faced a grappler of Mitchell's caliber.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to hand Bryce Mitchell his first loss. He is impressed by Topuria's fast-twitch athleticism, nasty hands, body work, and Greco-Roman wrestling background. Levi notes Topuria's ability to stuff takedowns and his proven heart (coming back from a head kick knockdown). He believes Topuria's athleticism and well-rounded game will be too much for Mitchell, who relies on relentless takedown attempts. Levi acknowledges Mitchell's toughness and top control but thinks Topuria can sprawl and brawl, making Mitchell pay for his shots.
Lock likes Topuria on the moneyline and on PredictionStrike, noting that at -130 and $1.75 on PredictionStrike, there is good value. He acknowledges question marks about Topuria's third round against Yousuff and getting rocked by Jai Herbert, but credits him for battling back from adversity. He believes Topuria has tremendous potential and that the hype is justified, though he needs to prove it. He recommends taking Topuria on PredictionStrike and moneyline, while for Mitchell, he suggests just the moneyline as a dog.
Paul picks Mitchell, noting his intelligence in the fight and ability to pick his spots. He thinks Mitchell's wrestling and submission threat will be a factor, and that Topuria's power and speed are dangerous early. He suggests a Mitchell round 3 prop or live betting, as Mitchell may take over later. He is not fully confident but leans Mitchell.
The MMA Guru picks Ilia Topuria over Bryce Mitchell by first-round TKO via body shots. He respects Mitchell's skills but believes Topuria's boxing is too clean and he will push Mitchell backwards, ripping body shots. He notes Topuria's scrambling ability and submission threats, and thinks Mitchell will struggle to get takedowns. He predicts Topuria finishes him early.
Zane picks Topuria, citing his confidence on the ground from the Ryan Hall fight and his superior athleticism. He believes Topuria's grappling will get him back to his feet repeatedly, and his striking pressure will force Mitchell to process the fight too often. Zane notes Mitchell's striking gaps when he's indecisive, and Topuria's body punching will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 22 of 63 | 34% | 50 of 94 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 20 of 41 | 48% | 31 of 55 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 47 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 12 of 27 | 44% | 23 of 41 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 3 of 16 | 18% | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jai Herbert | 1 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 22 of 63 | 34% | 20 of 60 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 20 of 41 | 48% | 17 of 37 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 35 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 19 of 47 | 40% | 18 of 45 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Jai Herbert | 12 of 27 | 44% | 11 of 25 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 3 of 16 | 18% | 2 of 15 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jai Herbert | 8 of 14 | 57% | 6 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Kicking off the main card is a classic stylistic battle when the appropriately titled “Black Country Banger” Herbert (11-3, 1-2 UFC) faces off against Spanish submission threat Topuria (11-0, 3-0 UFC) in the lightweight division. Trying to keep a lid on what is sure to be a fast-paced tilt will be referee Marc Goddard, although he does not need to worry about disrespect as the two touch gloves first. Herbert bounces up and down before snapping out a jab, and he steps in with a knee when Topuria advances towards him. Herbert keeps his opponent at bay with long, rangy strikes, getting the smaller Topuria’s attention quickly. Herbert lets his hands go and follows it with a head kick, dropping Topuria in the opening minute, and the audience bursts into cheers for their local man. “El Matador” springs back to his feet and crashes forward to go after a takedown, pushing Herbert all the way back to the cage but not getting him down. After multiple fence grabs from Herbert, Topuria is finally able to lift him up off the ground and slam him to the mat with emphasis. Topuria lands in side control, where he starts to isolate Herbert’s right arm and set up a crucifix. The scrambling Brit is able to recover his position, and he drags Topuria all the way back to his guard. Topuria madly dashes to try to pass guard, smashing Herbert in the face a few times, and he gets kicked off briefly but dives back on top. Herbert ties Topuria up, defending himself from much offense and keeping Topuria in his guard, but Topuria slowly works his way to open up on punches. Herbert scrambles, and he forces his way back to his feet and blasts Topuria with a back-elbow. Topuria is wobbled, and Herbert drills him with a long combination that knocks Topuria back. Goddard stops the fight for a second to replace Topuria’s mouthpiece, as it had been knocked out from the heavy punches from the Brit. Topuria gathers himself, as Herbert lets him off the hook and allows the Georgian to attack with winging punches. Herbert intercepts his man with a knee as Topuria comes in, and the mouthpiece goes flying again in a cinematic fashion. Topuria’s chin holds up, and the two lightweights furiously slug it out to the bell. What a round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Herbert
Round 2
The second round begins with Topuria aggressive, stalking Herbert down and trying to take the Brit’s reach advantage away from him. Topuria wings a right hand that just misses as Herbert kicks the body, and Herbert ducks back by an inch to avoid the massive blow. Herbert aims an uppercut that comes up short, and he strafes back and forth while Topuria comes after him.
With bad intentions in his eyes, Topuria stalks Herbert down and wings a few punches at him. Herbert reaches out with a jab, and “El Matador” unleashes a right behind the ear, a thudding left to the body and an earthshattering right hand flush on the chin that sends Herbert collapsing to the ground in a crumpled heap.
As the crowd goes completely silent, Topuria walks away without bothering to deliver a follow-up blow, with Herbert out cold beneath him. Making the most of his post-fight interview moment, Topuria does not call for bonus money – his work should speak for itself – but instead sets his sights on “that blonde b---ch” Paddy Pimblett. Should Pimblett win later tonight, matchmakers can take the day off as that came together without them having to budge.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Jai Herbert R2 1:07 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria to win by stoppage, citing his well-rounded game and ability to win on the feet or via wrestling. He notes that Jai Herbert has been taken down multiple times by opponents like Moicano and Trinaldo, and expects Topuria to do the same. He plans to bet on an Ilia Topuria wins inside the distance prop.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by first-round submission. He notes Topuria is moving up a weight class on short notice and faces a massive size disadvantage, but he believes Topuria's grappling is elite and Jai Herbert has shown horrendous takedown defense and a weak chin. Brady expects Topuria to take the fight to the mat and submit Herbert quickly, as Herbert has little ground game and poor durability.
Cody picks Topuria as a lock, citing his superior grappling and Herbert's weak chin. He thinks Topuria can win by submission or KO, and notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser fighters. He calls Topuria the top ticket.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria, but with reservations. He notes that Topuria has finished all his UFC fights in the first round except against a short-notice opponent, where he gassed. Levi believes Topuria's ground game is a huge advantage, as Herbert has poor wrestling and chin issues. However, he warns against overhyping Topuria, as Herbert has a puncher's chance with his reach and power. Levi expects a finish inside the distance.
Topuria should replicate what Moicano did to Herbert: get the fight to the ground and use superior jiu-jitsu for a finish. Herbert is a good striker but struggles against grapplers with heavy top pressure. 23 of 25 fights for these two haven't gone to decision, and that trend should continue. The fight doesn't go to decision at -350 is a better bet than Topuria straight. I'm picking Topuria via first-round submission.
Paul picks Topuria as a lock, emphasizing Herbert's defensive liabilities and Topuria's all-around game. He notes that Herbert has been knocked out by lesser punchers and that Topuria's grappling is a major threat. He agrees Topuria is the top ticket.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria but thinks the odds are too wide; he should be around -200. He notes Jai Herbert's weak chin and lack of physical strength, calling him a 'malnourished lightweight.' He believes Topuria's grappling and power will be too much, predicting a first-round TKO. He acknowledges an upset is possible but favors Topuria's skill set.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Hall | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 10 of 17 | 58% | 13 of 21 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ryan Hall | 0 | 18 of 32 | 56% | 18 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Hall | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 24 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 10 of 17 | 58% | 2 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 9 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Ryan Hall | 18 of 32 | 56% | 11 of 24 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 24 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
The next matchup is a highly anticipated featherweight tilt between the returning grappling wizard Hall (8-1, 4-0 UFC) against the unbeaten Spaniard Topuria (10-0, 2-0 UFC). Something’s gotta give between these two, with Hall’s last loss coming in 2006 while Topuria has yet to taste defeat. Referee Jason Herzog will be taking charge to make sure everything is above board, and a half-hearted glove touch is what we get to start the fight. Hall meets him in the center of the cage and backs away, circling around the cage while Topuria stalks him down. Hall lands the first strike, a kick to the body, and Topuria just looks at him. Hall pump-fakes a possible takedown to get a reaction out of the Spaniard, and he hits him with a spinning hook kick. Hall rolls for an Imanari roll to pursue a leg, and Topuria does not bite, kicks his outstretched leg a few times and lets him stand back up. Hall whiffs on a left hand, and another as he rolls for some sort of a tackle to grab Topuria’s leg. Once more, Topuria shrugs it off and lets Hall somersault around to miss. Hall’s fourth roll manages to snare Topuria, and he grabs Topuria’s glove to hold on to him but cannot keep him grounded. Hall rolls through and elbows Topuria in the side of the head, and Topuria takes his back and lands a few punches before breaking free. Hall walks into a few punches, and Topuria gets confident as he cracks Hall with a right hand. Hall flops to roll and take him down, and he lets Topuria wade into his guard but Topuria springs out of the way. Hall ducks a punch with his hands down, and he boots Topuria in the body twice. “The Wizard” rolls through a few more times, and Topuria never bites so the crowd begins to turn on him. The Spaniard stings him with a right hand, and Hall ducks down to roll and grab a heel but cannot get it. Hall continues to roll around and pop back up as if he were in a gymnastics class, and Topuria walks into a right hand but darts out of the way from yet another Hall roll. Hall connects with a spinning heel kick, and he dodges and weaves from any Topuria aggression. When Hall attempts another heel kick, Topuria closes the distance to bully Hall to the ground.
“El Matador” dives after him and stuns him with hammerfists, and his right hand starts to do damage as he continues to club Hall on the chin again and again. As Hall turns to his side, he has no where else to go and is trapped, and Topuria keeps smashing him in the face. The damage mounts until Hall is relieved of his consciousness, and Herzog steps in to stop the fight.
This is a huge win for the undefeated Topuria, who may have just earned a spot on the rankings with a smart performance.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Ryan Hall R1 4:47 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Topuria, believing the sport has passed Hall by. He notes Topuria has superior wrestling, traditional jiu-jitsu, and striking. He doesn't see Hall catching Topuria in a submission. He agrees with the DraftKings price and odds.
Big Brady picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision. He notes Topuria is good everywhere, a great striker with power, a solid wrestler, and a black belt in BJJ. He thinks Topuria can close the distance and keep the fight on the feet, avoiding Hall's guard. He acknowledges Hall's tricky style and underrated striking, but believes Topuria's youth, activity, and game plan will prevail. He mentions a possible knockout but leans decision.
Cody picks Topuria, citing his body work, power, and takedown defense. He notes Hall's dangerous jiu-jitsu but thinks Topuria's striking and physicality will be too much. He expects Topuria to win by decision or TKO.
Daniel Levi picks Ilia Topuria to win. He respects Ryan Hall's unique leglock game and spin kicks, but believes Topuria's confidence, youth, and well-rounded skills will neutralize Hall. He notes that Topuria has knockout power, good grappling, and heart, as shown when he got dropped and came back to win. He worries that Topuria's overconfidence could lead him to engage on the mat, but thinks he has the goods to win. He finds the plus 200 on Hall tempting but sticks with Topuria.
Jacob is extremely confident in Hall, calling it his most confident lock of the week ever. He believes Hall's unorthodox jiu-jitsu and kicks will lead to a submission. He notes Hall's ability to incorporate kicks to set up takedowns and that nobody wants to fight him. He plans to bet on Hall at plus odds.
I'm going with Topuria by KO. He is a young, hot prospect with great grappling and striking. Hall is wild and unorthodox, but Topuria's striking is much better. Topuria can also grapple with Hall if needed. I think Topuria will land a knockout after accumulating damage, probably in the second or third round. I like Topuria inside the distance and by KO.
Paul picks Topuria, noting his well-rounded skills, youth, and improvement. He thinks Topuria's takedown defense and striking will neutralize Hall's jiu-jitsu. He expects Topuria to dictate where the fight takes place and win by decision.
The Guru predicts Topuria will win by first-round KO. He expects Hall to dive for leg locks and use imanari rolls, but Topuria will escape and kick Hall's leg while Hall is on his back. Hall will get back up and throw wheel kicks, but each time Topuria will close the distance and smother him. Topuria will work the body throughout, causing Hall to hunch over. Then Topuria will land a lead left hook to the body followed by a right hand over the top to knock Hall out.
Max Holloway - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 45 | 57% | 73 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 50 of 66 | 75% | 110 of 137 | 5 of 13 | 38% | 4 | 0 | 20:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:30 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 16 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 13 of 15 | 86% | 24 of 26 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 4:40 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 18 of 23 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 4:29 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 11 | 81% | 25 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:16 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 28 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Oliveira | 0 | 9 of 12 | 75% | 24 of 27 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 26 of 45 | 57% | 18 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 50 of 66 | 75% | 37 of 51 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 6 | 24 of 37 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 27 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 8 of 13 | 61% | 5 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 10 of 14 | 71% | 7 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 5 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 13 of 15 | 86% | 11 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 7 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 6 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 11 | 81% | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 5 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 5 of 9 | 55% | 3 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Oliveira | 9 of 12 | 75% | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo acknowledges that Charles has a clear grappling advantage and expects him to mix in takedowns to keep Max guessing, opening up his striking. He notes Max's all-time great volume and takedown defense, but believes the threat of takedowns will disrupt Max's rhythm. He calls it a slight lean, emphasizing that picks can change closer to the event.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway over Charles Oliveira for the BMF belt. He acknowledges Holloway's durability may be declining after the Topuria KO and being hurt by Poirier, but still trusts it more than Oliveira's, who has been finished nine times and gets hurt in every fight. Holloway has good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Holloway to stuff takedowns, put a pace on Oliveira, hurt him, and finish by third-round KO. He also mentions an Underdog prop: Holloway under 94.5 significant strikes.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Holloway due to consistency, better boxing, and takedown defense. He mentions Holloway's durability and power at 155, and notes that Oliveira is dangerous but Holloway is the better all-around fighter. He predicts a first or second round knockout or a decision win.
Connor picks Max Holloway, citing Holloway's back-foot counterpunching and ability to control space, which neutralizes Oliveira's pressure. He notes Holloway's body punching from their first fight and his improved defensive wrestling, comparing the matchup to Islam Makhachev's win over Oliveira. Connor acknowledges Oliveira's toughness but believes Holloway's style is a nightmare for him.
Daniel Vreeland favors Max Holloway due to his elite cardio, volume striking, and historical preference in this matchup. He notes that Holloway sets significant strike records and has a proven track record, though he acknowledges Oliveira's dangerous submission threat and opportunistic finishing ability. Vreeland mentions that both fighters have been dropped recently, but he trusts Holloway's output down the stretch.
Holloway is the biggest bet of the year at 5 units. The host believes Holloway's superior striking volume (lands more than double the strikes per minute) and 83% takedown defense will neutralize Oliveira's grappling. He expects Oliveira to be competitive early but fade, with Holloway pulling away in later rounds. The host is surprised Holloway is not a bigger favorite, having placed the bet at 1.50 odds a week ago.
Lucrative James picks Max Holloway because he believes Holloway is the far superior striker with better distance control and volume. He notes that Oliveira's path to victory relies on hurting Holloway and jumping on a submission, but considers that a low-probability outcome. James also highlights Holloway's increased power at lightweight and his stylistic adaptation to fighting on the outside, while Oliveira's durability issues and tendency to get hurt make him vulnerable. He sees Holloway winning by TKO or decision, with the fight likely ending inside the distance.
Holloway should stop Oliveira's grappling and outwork him on the feet with volume. Oliveira needs a kick-heavy game to slow Holloway, but Holloway's jab and pressure will win rounds. The fight likely goes to decision, but the line is too high; Holloway should be closer to -150.
Paul picks Max Holloway, citing his superior boxing, technical abilities, and takedown defense. He notes that Holloway's volume and power at 155 lbs are key, and that Oliveira is hittable. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but believes Holloway wins more often than not, possibly by knockout or accumulation of strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira, believing he will take Holloway's shots and eventually submit him. He argues Oliveira has better wins (e.g., Poirier in his prime, Gaethje) and improved wrestling. He predicts a rear-naked choke in round two, citing Oliveira's power and grappling advantage.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Max Holloway. He emphasizes Holloway's body punching and back-foot countering as key, and notes that Oliveira struggles against fighters who can pressure him off the back foot, as seen in the Makhachev fight. Zane also mentions Holloway's excellent takedown defense, though he is curious to see it tested against Oliveira.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 1 | 198 of 375 | 52% | 201 of 378 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:32 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 109 of 255 | 42% | 109 of 255 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 1 | 26 of 64 | 40% | 26 of 64 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 67 | 65% | 47 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:24 |
| Dustin Poirier | 1 | 25 of 43 | 58% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:12 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 38 of 61 | 62% | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 21 of 49 | 42% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 44 of 84 | 52% | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 22 of 68 | 32% | 22 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 46 of 99 | 46% | 46 of 99 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Poirier | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 198 of 375 | 52% | 103 of 253 | 64 of 80 | 31 of 42 | 182 of 351 | 0 of 1 | 16 of 23 |
| Dustin Poirier | 109 of 255 | 42% | 94 of 235 | 6 of 10 | 9 of 10 | 102 of 243 | 3 of 6 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 26 of 64 | 40% | 9 of 39 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 9 | 23 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 7 |
| Dustin Poirier | 16 of 32 | 50% | 12 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 16 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 44 of 67 | 65% | 31 of 52 | 11 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 31 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 16 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 43 | 58% | 21 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 19 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 6 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 38 of 61 | 62% | 18 of 36 | 9 of 12 | 11 of 13 | 38 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 21 of 49 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 44 of 84 | 52% | 23 of 57 | 15 of 18 | 6 of 9 | 44 of 84 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 22 of 68 | 32% | 21 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 46 of 99 | 46% | 22 of 69 | 18 of 22 | 6 of 8 | 46 of 98 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Poirier | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 61 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Max Holloway, but with low confidence. He notes that Dustin is the better all-around fighter but may be pressured by his retirement fight and home crowd, leading him to brawl instead of using his full skillset. He expects Holloway's volume striking to win a decision. He will not bet on this fight.
Big Brady leans Max Holloway, citing Holloway's improvement at lightweight and youth (33 vs 36). He worries about Holloway's chin after his first KO but believes Holloway's volume will be key. He notes Poirier's retirement and hometown advantage could sway a close decision, so he's not betting.
Connor believes Holloway has evolved into a more complete striker since their last fight, with improved footwork, counterpunching, and kicking game. He thinks Holloway was close to winning the second fight and that his cleaner combinations and pressure can overcome Poirier's power if he survives the turning points. He also notes Poirier's retirement talk as a potential factor that could affect his focus.
The host notes Poirier is up 2-0 in the series and believes his power punching approach will be more effective than Holloway's volume, referencing the second matchup where Poirier won 4-1 on scorecards. He expects Poirier to repeat that and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over Dustin Poirier, predicting a decision win. He cites Holloway's superior striking and the fact that Poirier is retiring after this fight, which may affect his intensity. The Guru also notes that Holloway nearly won their second fight and is now properly prepared at lightweight, unlike the short-notice rematch. He believes Poirier's striking has regressed due to focusing on takedown defense, while Holloway's striking remains sharp. He expects a competitive fight but sees Holloway as a step ahead.
Zane agrees with Connor that Holloway can win, citing Holloway's improved back-foot game and the fact that he was close in the second fight. He also points to Poirier's age and potential emotional state in his retirement fight as reasons Holloway might finally get the win. However, he expresses nervousness about picking against the trend of the first two fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 1 | 75 of 144 | 52% | 78 of 147 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 79 of 204 | 38% | 84 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 24 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:41 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 30 of 75 | 40% | 35 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 0 | 32 of 62 | 51% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 102 | 34% | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 1 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 22 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ilia Topuria | 75 of 144 | 52% | 49 of 114 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 16 | 71 of 140 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 79 of 204 | 38% | 47 of 151 | 13 of 30 | 19 of 23 | 79 of 204 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ilia Topuria | 22 of 47 | 46% | 13 of 38 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 30 of 75 | 40% | 17 of 56 | 7 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 30 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ilia Topuria | 32 of 62 | 51% | 20 of 47 | 5 of 7 | 7 of 8 | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 35 of 102 | 34% | 23 of 79 | 3 of 13 | 9 of 10 | 35 of 102 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ilia Topuria | 21 of 35 | 60% | 16 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Max Holloway | 14 of 27 | 51% | 7 of 16 | 3 of 5 | 4 of 6 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Topuria (-230), Holloway (+190)
Round 1
One of the best fights the UFC could possibly make serves as the main attraction, and it is one for all the marbles. Topuria (15-0, 7-0 UFC) puts his featherweight strap and undefeated record on the line against former champ Holloway (26-7, 22-7 UFC), and excitement is at a fever pitch. No more introductions are needed. Referee Marc Goddard brings the gladiators to the center of the Octagon to touch gloves, and they do just that. It’s on with the show. Topuria stands in the middle of the cage and points to the ground, and Holloway motions a matador gesture to counter him. They do not brawl it out immediately. Topuria advances calmly instead, measuring the former champ and blocking a head kick and a few jabs. Topuria goes over the top with a right hand that misses the mark, and a second nearly lands as well. Holloway keeps active with jabs and body kicks, and he swipes out with a right hook that misses the mark. Topuria puts everything he has into a huge right hand, and Holloway is wise to it and pecks at him with sharp jabs. Topuria shoots in and lifts “Blessed” off his feet, driving him to the canvas with a solid double. Holloway wall-walks, and Topuria forced a mat return. Holloway stands once more and breaks away, and he checks a low kick and advances with a right hand. Topuria gives him a right to think about, but Holloway does not let him off the hook and pegs him with a pair of punches. Topuria chops at the front leg a few times, and he tags Holloway with a right hand. Holloway skirts out of the way before absorbing more than a few, and Topuria works his front leg with another hard kick. Holloway snaps out a jab, marking up Topuria’s face and coming up short with a front kick. Topuria reaches his target with a jab, and Holloway prods out with low kicks. Topuria tries to swing it out, and Holloway is composed enough to evade the blows and get off a long right hand on the way out. Holloway splits the guard with a front kick and has his guard high to defend the counters, and his head kick bounces off the guard. Holloway peppers his opponent with a low kick and jabs, and he follows a jab with a two. Topuria shakes it off and walks into a jab that makes him reset, and he dodges a spinning back kick in time. Topuria throws hammers, and he knocks an off-balance Holloway down to the mat in what was more of a slip or a trip than a clean strike, and the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The featherweights clap hands to get started again, and Holloway fights immediately behind his jab. Topuria comes up short with a low kick and a right hand, and he gets caught on the way in with a jab. Holloway tags the champ with a clean right, and he trades low kicks with his opponent. Holloway goes to the head and body with jabs, and he takes one on the nose to back him away. Topuria wings power punches that hit air, but his calf kick finds its mark. Topuria clubs Holloway on the side of the head with winging punches, and he chains a calf kick after it. Topuria gets in a right hand and has a leg kick checked, and Holloway snaps his head back with a jab. Holloway steps in with a knee behind a few jabs, and he stomps at the front knee of his adversary. Topuria drills Holloway in the chin with a left hand, and he goes after the front leg with a kick again. Topuria’s punches connect cleanly on the jaw of the Hawaiian, who shows him what time it is with a left hook and a head kick on the other side. Topuria loads up on power strikes, and Holloway’s jabs are disrupting him just enough so that he does not get them full blast. Holloway dips a huge hook and jabs away, and he reaches out with a body shot. Topuria answers in kind, and he rolls with a right hook. Holloway kicks the side as he fires off jabs, and he checks a kick and kicks his man back. Holloway knees the side as Topuria barrels down on him, and he nails the champ with a short left and a power right. Topuria responds with a right hand, and he is met with multiple low kicks in response. Chants for both fighters are deafening in the building, and Holloway chains a number of punches together to decent effect. Topuria kicks the front leg and gets met with a body kick, and he eats a right hand when throwing one. Holloway scores a spinning back kick to the body, and Topuria shrugs at him before the round comes to a close.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Topuria
Round 3
It’s back to more face-punching as they resume again, and Holloway uses his punches to set up two low kicks and a third up high. Topuria walks through a leg kick to land a right on the chin, and Holloway scores a left hand as Topuria points at him. Topuria deploys a powerful leg kick, and a second one is met with long punches from the former champ. Holloway stomps at his foe’s front leg a few times, and Topuria does not lie it. Topuria winds up with a huge right hand, knocking the former champ back and stunning him. Holloway shells up and defends himself from an onslaught, and he is still rocked even as he counters and circles away. Topuria is on top of him ready to finish the job, further backing Holloway up to the wall and letting loose with a bombardment of punches. A ferocious left hand in the midst of a fierce flurry knocks Holloway down to the ground, and Topuria has achieved something no featherweight has ever accomplished. Topuria lowers himself down to blast Holloway with a number of hammerfists, and Holloway’s lights go out and get switched back on from the stream of blows. Goddard sees that Holloway has had enough and waves the fight off, and Topuria wanders away and motions sipping at tea. Incredible! Topuria has done the impossible, knocking out a fighter who had never before been stopped with strikes. Topuria is still undefeated, having notched back-to-back finishes that will stack up among the greatest ever performed in the division. Topuria leaps out of the cage to embrace anyone he can find, including UFC chief exec Hunter Campbell and television host Steve Harvey. As he returns to the cage, he receives a rose for his effort. Topuria welcomes all challengers, including former champion Alexander Volkanovski, who takes the cage to greet him. Topuria says he does not want to fight anyone right now, and instead wants to hug Volkanovski. He does just that. Full of love, Topuria wants to celebrate this victory with his family and team. It remains to be seen who is next for the champion, who cements himself as a star and one of the greats in his weight class because of this spectacular triumph. No matter who is next for "El Matador," we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
The Official Result
Ilia Topuria def. Max Holloway R3 1:34 via KO (Punches)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 103 of 199 | 51% | 103 of 199 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 181 of 309 | 58% | 181 of 309 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 12 of 26 | 46% | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 25 of 39 | 64% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 18 of 26 | 69% | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 30 of 53 | 56% | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 20 of 38 | 52% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 29 of 53 | 54% | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 35 of 60 | 58% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 0 | 35 of 61 | 57% | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 18 of 49 | 36% | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Gaethje | 1 | 62 of 103 | 60% | 62 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 103 of 199 | 51% | 44 of 121 | 26 of 42 | 33 of 36 | 103 of 199 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 181 of 309 | 58% | 62 of 149 | 62 of 91 | 57 of 69 | 181 of 308 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 12 of 26 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 7 | 12 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 25 of 39 | 64% | 10 of 18 | 5 of 10 | 10 of 11 | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 18 of 26 | 69% | 6 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 9 of 9 | 18 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 30 of 53 | 56% | 4 of 20 | 13 of 17 | 13 of 16 | 30 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 20 of 38 | 52% | 5 of 18 | 9 of 14 | 6 of 6 | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 29 of 53 | 54% | 6 of 24 | 13 of 18 | 10 of 11 | 29 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 35 of 60 | 58% | 18 of 38 | 11 of 16 | 6 of 6 | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 35 of 61 | 57% | 15 of 29 | 9 of 19 | 11 of 13 | 35 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 18 of 49 | 36% | 11 of 37 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 18 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Gaethje | 62 of 103 | 60% | 27 of 58 | 22 of 27 | 13 of 18 | 62 of 102 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gaethje (-175), Holloway (+145)
Round 1
Whether you believe the “BMF” title should matter or not, what bestowing that trophy on this next fight did was extend it to five rounds, and everyone should be thankful. It’s Justin Gaethje (25-4, 8-4 UFC) vs. Max Holloway (25-7, 21-7 UFC) in what many have pegged as a potential “Fight of the Year” entry. Nothing more needs to be said, other than that the lightweights receive instructions from referee Marc Goddard and that they touch gloves before fireworks ensue. Buckle up. The first strike likely of many comes from Holloway, who jabs the midsection and kicks it with his opposite leg. Gaethje bears down on him and loads up on an overhand right, missing the Hawaiian by inches. Gaethje sits down on a leg kick, and Holloway flicks out jabs to the body and head. Holloway pops a low kick on the thigh, and Gaethje hammers one back. Holloway sits down on a low kick and drives forward launching uppercuts. Gaethje slips back and knocks Holloway to his seat with a vicious calf kick. Holloway climbs back up without issue and bites on a feint from the BMF beltholder. Holloway strides in and lances a left hand down the middle, and Gaethje unloads and fires two big hooks. Holloway scores a clean uppercut, and he meets Gaethje in the middle and cracks him with another uppercut and a strong left hook. Gaethje keeps a solid poker face but he had his bell run in the exchange, and Holloway does not draw himself into a reckless exchange and instead measures with a front kick. Holloway prods out a left hand to intercept an advancing Gaethje, and he ignores a leg kick to mark up Gaethje’s nose. Chants for Holloway boom inside of the T-Mobile Arena, and he pokes out a leg kick and stays moving and rarely stays in the same place to not put himself in harm’s way. Holloway checks a kick, and he tosses out a half-hearted high kick. Gaethje responds with one that bounces off the shoulder, and Holloway nods at him. Holloway just misses on an uppercut, and he chips at the front leg with two kicks to the knee. Holloway checks another kick and unleashes a left and a stern right hand, and Gaethje chambers and fire a massive right hand that skims past the cheek. Holloway lunges forward with a right hand to the body, and Gaethje stumbles and gets back upright. Holloway high-fives him to make sure he is good to go, and Gaethje is fine. Holloway jabs with his foot, and a spin kick on the nose sends Gaethje flying. As the cage door opens to bring in corners for the middle of the round, Gaethje nearly falls out of the cage itself. Gaethje adjusts his nose that might have suffered some damage from the kick, and the tense round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
Gaethje appears overly concerned about his nose to begin the round, and it starts tentatively between the two. As Holloway sticks out a few jabs, blood streams from it, and Gaethje is not happy about it. Gaethje loads up on a huge right hand, and Holloway barely slides out of the way in time. Holloway rifles out jabs to the nose, and he chains two together before releasing a high body kick. The crowd is deafening with calls for Holloway, and Gaethje absorbs a little of the energy to land a powerful leg kick. Holloway gives him one back, and he reaches out to throw hands as Gaethje comes in swinging aggressively. Holloway stretches his finger out, and it jams deep into Gaethje’s eye. Goddard sees it and immediately calls time, and Gaethje is not about to stop because of some eye damage. After about 45 seconds, Gaethje declares he is good to go, and the fighters share a glove touch before getting after it. Gaethje lands a body kick, and Holloway does too. Gaethje winds up and slings a leg kick that Holloway partially checks. Holloway jabs the body and wraps a kick up that slaps into the BMF beltholder’s armpit. Gaethje slides to the side and adjusts his nose, and he springs forward with a right hand and a low kick. Holloway stands firm in front of him and continues targeting the body with long punches. Gaethje looses a right hand as Holloway pokes his hand out, and Holloway immediately apologizes and Gaethje gets time to recover. Goddard asks Holloway to be careful, and Gaethje is irritated but only takes 20 seconds before going back to it. Gaethje releases a heavy leg kick, and Holloway can only partially defend against it. Gaethje lashes out with a right and a left, missing the mark by a small margin. Holloway pushes out a teep kick and goes after a jab to the midsection, and Gaethje punishes him with a calf kick at the right time. Holloway raises his leg up a few times to take some of the pain away, and he surges into action with a pair of clean punches. Gaethje gets away with another stunning calf kick, and Holloway reaches him back with two punches. Holloway spins with a kick, and he tosses up high a body kick as the two brawl to the conclusion of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 3
There is a touch of gloves between the fighters to get started. Gaethje parries one punch, but Holloway lands a second to the midsection. Gaethje chops at his front leg, and Holloway pitches two back. Holloway lets go with a right hand to the sternum, and he kicks Holloway in the side and takes one right back. Gaethje whips a kick at him, and it buzzes past his opponent. Holloway has a body kick graze the cup, and Gaethje shakes it off and is fine. Gaethje stabs his toes at the midsection, and Holloway jabs him in the face. When Gaethje advances, Holloway reaches him with a clean uppercut. Gaethje batters the calf with another vicious kick, and Holloway’s do not nearly have the same impact. Gaethje scores a check left hook, and front kicks from both men go flying. Holloway beans Gaethje with a one-two and he blasts Gaethje with a spinning back kick that lands on the face. Gaethje tries to fire back, and Holloway chains a number of punches that drop Gaethje to a knee. Gaethje climbs back up and swings with bad intentions, and a low kick nearly compromises the former featherweight king as his leg swells up badly. Gaethje clears the cobwebs and backs away from a lunging combination, and he ducks down and a spinning back kick catches him flush in the ribs. Gaethje steels himself and eats a right hand, and he marches Holloway down and tries to unleash the thunder. Holloway keeps moving, circling to the right way to avoid the worst of the power. Gaethje kicks him in the shoulder, and Holloway comes back throwing with a left hand. Holloway gets in an uppercut, and Gaethje unloads a right hand and a low kick in response. Holloway rips a straight right hand to the midsection, and he releases a right hand that skims past Gaethje’s ear. They clash together when throwing hands violently, and Gaethje gathers himself and checks a leg kick. Gaethje kicks the body, and Holloway does the same to mirror what Gaethje does to him. Gaethje releases two more high kicks that are block before the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 4
The championship rounds are reached, and they begin with a fist bump. They hand-fight with one another before Gaethje pushes out a front kick. Holloway doubles up on the same kick, leading Gaethje to slam his shin on Holloway’s swollen calf. Holloway rips a right hand to the midsection, and he kicks on the other side as Gaethje tries to catch it but releases the leg. They trade body shots, and Gaethje whizzes past with a mighty one-two. Holloway lands a body kick and scores two big punches, and Gaethje whirrs into action with a barrage of heavy punches punctuated by two big right hands. Holloway marks the face up, and he forces Gaethje to buckle so he can work the body. Holloway jabs up the face, continuing to damage Gaethje’s busted nose, and Gaethje reels when he absorbs the blows but is more than willing to ruthlessly sling leather back at him. Gaethje chops down the front leg once more, and Holloway slides away from the other blows and lands a few of his own. Gaethje catches the Hawaiian standing still, landing several punches in rapid succession before Holloway can get away. “The Highlight” further batters the front leg, and Holloway responds with an accurate uppercut. Gaethje comes up short with a haymaker, allowing Holloway to roll and counter with a right hand. Holloway steps in with a knee and eats the end of a left hand with little effect. Gaethje beats down the front leg, and Holloway ignores the pain to put three punches to together to the body and head. Gaethje uncorks a bomb of a right hand drops Holloway to his seat, in what could register as the first knockdown in Holloway’s UFC career. Holloway pops right back up and fights behind his jab, making sure not to eat any unnecessary power shots while landing his own. They both lash out with body kicks, and Gaethje puts out a front kick for good measure. Gaethje smacks Holloway with a left hand, and he stings Holloway with a left and a right before the exciting round wraps.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Shane Clifford scores the round: 10-9 Gaethje
Round 5
There is a shared fist bump, and a sharp inhale from the attendees of the T-Mobile Arena for what could be a ridiculous fifth and final frame. Gaethje uses his own jab, and Holloway meets him with a head kick that knocks Gaethje back several steps. Gaethje ducks a looping left hand, square into an uppercut waiting for him. He pays it no mind and jabs the body to follow it with a right over the top. Holloway spins with a kick that slides off Gaethje’s body, and he recovers and lines up two punches down Broadway. Gaethje scoops down to the Earth’s core to come up with a ferocious uppercut, and it blazes past Holloway and singes his hair. Holloway attacks, entering vintage “Blessed” mode by chaining well over a dozen punches together to the head and body. Gaethje responds with massive hooks, and Holloway spins with a back kick to the ribs. Gaethje takes a deep breath and allows Holloway to reach him with a right hand. Gaethje swipes out with a left, and Holloway’s spinning back kick again finds its home. Gaethje goes high with a kick that is blocked, and Holloway dings him with a right hand and jumps with a spin kick that catches “The Highlight.” Gaethje sits down on a low kick and jabs out with his hands, and Holloway bloodies his nose with a short blitz. Holloway ducks and digs a right hand to the body and a left to the head. Holloway connects with a solid left on the forehead, and he stomp kicks Gaethje’s knees coming in. Gaethje walks into a spin kick that connects cleanly, and he hits air when Holloway slips away. Holloway unloads with a painful kick to the body, and he strings a few more punches together. Gaethje tries to kick him upside the head, and Holloway blocks it and jumps at him with a knee. Gaethje kicks the lead leg, and Holloway is in trouble after all of this damage sustained. As Holloway hears that it’s time to power up, he points to the ground and signals that a tremendous brawl is about to ensue. Gaethje meets him in the middle, and with about 15 seconds left, everything they have left is unleashed in the Octagon. Gaethje slings violently, and Holloway does the same. Both men blast one another with hellacious power, knocking one another around the cage in a slugfest perfectly representing the “BMF” name. Holloway ducks down and channels all of his remaining energy into his right fist. “Blessed” releases it and smashes it into Gaethje’s temple, and Gaethje slumps to the ground on his face, completely annihilated. Holloway did it! With maybe one second left in a fight he was likely going to win, Holloway threw everything in the air and let the chips fall where they may. Absolutely incredible! Max Holloway is the baddest mister falcon in the UFC, and he did it in a way that will live forever on highlight reels. “Knockout of the Year” is likely well and sewn up now. The triumphant Hawaiian calls for championship fights at featherweight or lightweight, and with Alexander Volkanovski not the champ of the former, he can call his shots practically anywhere he wants. He also demands double bonus money for “Fight of the Night” and “Performance of the Night.” Give the man what he wants, for he is a superstar.
The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Justin Gaethje R5 4:59 via KO (Punch)
Angelo picks Justin Gaethje, citing his power and wrestling as the edge. He notes Max Holloway has volume and speed, and the five rounds help Max, but Gaethje's power and wrestling give him a slight advantage. He calls the -200 odds too wide and advises against parlaying Gaethje.
Cody believes Max Holloway is a legendary fighter but is undersized at lightweight. He points out that when Holloway jumps up, he lands volume but the bigger opponents land the more damaging shots, as seen in the Dustin Poirier fights. Gaethje is the bigger, stronger man with power and leg kicks. Cody notes Gaethje's durability and that he's been fighting the best of his career recently. He expects Gaethje to attack the leg and land the bigger hooks, and thinks Holloway will have to outpoint him for 25 minutes, which is unlikely. Cody predicts Gaethje gets the job done, likely by decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks Justin Gaethje, citing Gaethje's size, power, and recent form. He notes that Holloway's move up to lightweight didn't go well before, and that Gaethje hits much harder. He also mentions that Gaethje is fighting smarter now, which plays into his advantage.
Daniel Vreeland picks Max Holloway to win the BMF title, citing his superior cardio, five-round experience, and ability to make adjustments on the fly. He believes Holloway's volume and durability will overwhelm Gaethje in the later rounds, and notes Holloway's improved grappling as a potential factor. He is concerned about Gaethje's leg kicks but trusts Holloway's chin and recovery.
Jeff Fox picks Justin Gaethje, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is narrow, relying on volume and pressure, but Gaethje matches that. He mentions that Gaethje's punches are much harder and that he will steal rounds with power shots. He also notes that Gaethje is fighting safer now, which helps him.
Lucrative James discusses the fight as a banger but does not make a pick. He mentions that many people think it will go the same way as Holloway's last loss at 155 to Dustin Poirier, but he is not sure. He says he will have a separate analysis video coming soon. He also notes he is looking at the odds as a gambler but does not reveal a side.
Holloway's ability to go into deep waters and turn on the pressure will allow him to pull away. Gaethje has lost in championship fights in the third or fourth rounds when opponents put pressure and output on him. Holloway will overwhelm him with a barrage of shots, similar to Dustin Poirier and Eddie Alvarez, and get a stoppage in rounds 3-5.
Paul has never liked Max Holloway at lightweight, citing his size disadvantage. He notes that Gaethje will attack the legs heavily and that Holloway has never faced a leg kicker like Gaethje. Paul mentions Holloway's volume is unmatched but his opponents land the stiffer, more damaging shots, which judges favor. He references the Dustin Poirier fights where Holloway outlanded Poirier but lost because Poirier's shots were harder. Paul sees Gaethje as the rightful favorite and expects him to win, likely by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by third-round TKO, citing Holloway's volume and ability to capitalize on Gaethje's two-punch sequencing. He questions Gaethje's knockout power, noting he hasn't knocked out elite competition with punches. He believes Holloway's range, kicks, and durability will be key.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 2 | 75 of 128 | 58% | 75 of 128 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:57 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 34 of 124 | 27% | 35 of 126 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 34 of 55 | 61% | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 15 of 50 | 30% | 15 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 1 | 36 of 62 | 58% | 36 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:54 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 16 of 57 | 28% | 17 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:15 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 1 | 5 of 11 | 45% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 0 | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 75 of 128 | 58% | 34 of 77 | 31 of 35 | 10 of 16 | 71 of 124 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 34 of 124 | 27% | 25 of 110 | 6 of 8 | 3 of 6 | 34 of 122 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 34 of 55 | 61% | 12 of 28 | 14 of 15 | 8 of 12 | 34 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 15 of 50 | 30% | 9 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 5 | 15 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 36 of 62 | 58% | 18 of 40 | 16 of 18 | 2 of 4 | 33 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 16 of 57 | 28% | 13 of 53 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 57 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 5 of 11 | 45% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chan Sung Jung | 3 of 17 | 17% | 3 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 15 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is confident Holloway will win, citing his striking volume, pressure, takedown defense, and championship experience. He notes that Holloway is an 8-to-1 favorite but he won't bet that price. He expects Holloway to dominate the striking exchanges and defend takedowns, potentially setting up another title shot.
Big Brady sees no clear path to victory for the Korean Zombie, as Holloway has superior volume, takedown defense, and durability. He notes that Zombie has looked bad in recent fights, taking significant damage against Volkanovski and Ortega. He expects Holloway to overwhelm Zombie with strikes, leading to a late-round knockout or corner stoppage.
Cody sees Holloway as a clear winner due to his legendary durability and volume striking. He notes that Holloway's speed and output will overwhelm the Korean Zombie, who is on a retirement fight and has shown decline. Cody expects Holloway to win by decision but also considers late-round finishes possible. He mentions using Holloway as a parlay anchor but warns that the minus 800 price is steep.
Daniel picks Max Holloway, citing his insane volume and output over five rounds. He notes that Holloway's path to victory is clear through sheer strike volume, while the Korean Zombie's only chance is a counter-striking power approach. He mentions that Zombie is 36 and coming off a brutal beating from Volkanovski, and that Holloway is the younger, more durable fighter. He expects a decision win for Holloway.
James is confident Max Holloway wins, believing he can finish the Korean Zombie whenever he wants. He notes Zombie hasn't looked good recently and that Holloway's volume and leg kicks will be too much. He considers Holloway by KO at -145 but passes due to the possibility of a decision or friendly fight. He thinks Holloway could finish early or late.
The host emphasizes Holloway's durability, cardio, and volume striking, and believes he will pressure the Korean Zombie and win a decision. He notes that Holloway is only 31 and has a lot to prove. The host mentions the over/under was steamed to over 2.5 and expects the fight to go the distance. He likes the Holloway by decision prop at +165.
Paul agrees Holloway wins but notes he's slowing down and more vulnerable than in the past. He points out that Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and may not be the same fighter, but the Korean Zombie is at the end of his career and lacks the tools to exploit that. Paul expects Holloway to win by decision or late finish, but warns that the price is too high for a straight bet.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway over the Korean Zombie, citing style matchup issues. He explains that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents who move side-to-side and wrestle, but the Korean Zombie is a flat-footed, linear boxer who doesn't throw leg kicks. He notes Holloway's activity and youth (31) compared to Zombie's layoff and age (36). He predicts a late-round standing TKO, similar to the Volk fight but with more volume.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 0 | 147 of 262 | 56% | 149 of 264 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 76 of 225 | 33% | 80 of 229 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 62 | 43% | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 11 of 33 | 33% | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 0 | 25 of 49 | 51% | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 19 of 42 | 45% | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 0 | 33 of 51 | 64% | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 0 | 29 of 52 | 55% | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 12 of 39 | 30% | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 0 | 33 of 48 | 68% | 35 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Arnold Allen | 0 | 20 of 66 | 30% | 24 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Max Holloway | 147 of 262 | 56% | 77 of 180 | 42 of 48 | 28 of 34 | 146 of 261 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 76 of 225 | 33% | 48 of 173 | 18 of 36 | 10 of 16 | 76 of 225 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Max Holloway | 27 of 62 | 43% | 13 of 46 | 9 of 11 | 5 of 5 | 27 of 62 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 11 of 33 | 33% | 4 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 11 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Max Holloway | 25 of 49 | 51% | 11 of 30 | 8 of 9 | 6 of 10 | 25 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 19 of 42 | 45% | 10 of 26 | 6 of 12 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Max Holloway | 33 of 51 | 64% | 20 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 6 of 7 | 33 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 14 of 45 | 31% | 11 of 39 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Max Holloway | 29 of 52 | 55% | 12 of 33 | 10 of 12 | 7 of 7 | 29 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 12 of 39 | 30% | 6 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Max Holloway | 33 of 48 | 68% | 21 of 34 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 5 | 32 of 47 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Arnold Allen | 20 of 66 | 30% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 66 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holloway (-175), Allen (+150)
Round 1
The featherweight championship trilogy for Holloway (23-7, 19-7 UFC) did not go his way, dropping three matches to king Alexander Volkanovski, and now “Blessed” will try to earn an unprecedented fourth crack at him. On the other hand, like excellent fighters at lightweight (Beneil Dariush) and welterweight (Belal Muhammad), Allen (19-1, 10-0 UFC) cannot seem to buy a title shot despite an outstanding win streak of 10 straight. Should “Almighty” get past the Hawaiian – Holloway has not lost a non-championship outing in nearly a decade – it should be more than enough to earn him the coveted opportunity to vie for a belt. One thing is certain: This fight should be electric. Referee Jason Herzog is on the call for the last fight of the night, and the two combatants are amped up but glad to touch gloves before the face punching begins. Allen is the aggressor to lead off, with a few leg kicks and jabs. Holloway hops around on the outside, dodging kicks and staying loose. Allen lets go with a body kick, but it is low and bounces off the cup. Herzog pauses the fight to let the Hawaiian get his wind back, but Holloway only needs 15 seconds before he is good to go. Holloway scores a chipping leg kick and two one-twos, and he blocks a head kick and gives one right back. Holloway digs a right to the head and left to the body, and he slides back out of harm’s way in time to avoid a counter. Allen connects cleanly with a left hand, and Holloway absorbs it without batting an eye. Holloway jabs to the body and eats a low kick, and he keeps his guard up from one up high. Holloway slips a jab to sneak one in, and he plants two fists on the Brit’s mug. When Allen misses on another high kick, Holloway tunes him up with three fast punches. They both land strikes on the outside, and Allen raises his arms up to reset. Holloway stomps at the knee with a kick, and he keeps scooting around the outer edge and away from the high kick. Holloway blocks a body kick, throws one back and ends the combination with a few punches. Holloway sneaks a left over the guard, and he leans back as a head kick whizzes past him. The two men clash leg kicks together, and Allen gives chase with a left hook that misses the mark. Holloway backs Allen up with a short combination, and Allen gathers his thoughts and flicks out a jab. Allen reaches his foe with a left over the top, and Holloway spins all the way through with a kick that glances off Allen’s midsection. Holloway times a body kick and a left hand, surprising Allen but not stunning him. Holloway slips a punch, moves, and reaches up with a head kick right before the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 2
The fighters half-heartedly touch ‘em up to start off the second stanza, and he shifts to the side when Allen advances with a left hook. Allen aims a pair of kicks to the side, and he gets tripped up and a front kick clicks off the cup. Holloway shakes it off and they do not break, and Allen walks him down and slugs him in the face with a monster left hand. The Hawaiian tanks it and tries to trade back, and he gets clubbed again with a powerful left. Allen slows his barrage when Holloway sticks out a right hand, but he times a left over the jab to tag Holloway again. “Blessed” smacks the lead calf a few times, and it is turning red as Allen surges forward. Allen chambers and fires another left, but Holloway rolls with this one and is not overly concerned. Holloway splits the guard with a jab and marks up Allen’s nose, and he blocks head kick to return one. Holloway jabs the body as he reaches out, and he dodges a heavy strike and avoids a high kick that soars after it. Holloway strings three punches together while Allen is resetting, and he jabs to break up Allen’s looping punches. Holloway wings a right hand, and he follows it with three punches to the head and body. Holloway switches stances repeatedly to give Allen pause, and he hops in with a piercing jab. Allen whiffs on a left hand and connects with a front kick, and he takes a flush body kick that lands with an audible thud. Holloway gets caught with a left hook, and he flings a kick up high and throws one from the other leg that slips under the armpit. Holloway spins with a hook kick, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen
Round 3
Allen starts off Round 3 pushing the pace, and he walks into a quick right hand from “Blessed.” Allen returns fire, and his nose is showing some wear. Holloway lines up three punches on the jaw, and Allen has to take a second to gather his thoughts. Allen loads up on a right hook and a big left, and Holloway sees them and defends from the brunt of the damage. Allen gives chase with power punches, and Holloway jabs at him to the head and midsection. Holloway takes a strike to cut the inside of his eyebrow on his left eye, and he dodges the vicious swings to stay safe. Allen blocks a head kick and tags Holloway with two long left hands, and Holloway reaches him with a straight right to the body before leaping back. Holloway slides a kick up high and is backed off with a check right hook, and he slips several punches and sinks in another body kick. Holloway sends Allen backing away with a short combo of punches to bloody the nose, and the Brit waves Herzog off from a possible uncalled foul. Holloway slams his shin on the calf to make Allen’s knee turn in, and he stands right in the pocket to trade. Allen throws a high kick, and Holloway guards it and secures an unblocked kick to the midsection. Allen takes one more heavy kick, and Holloway closes in and gets off a step-in elbow. Holloway flashes out a jab and two punches when Allen bears down on him. Holloway spins with a back fist, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 4
The fighters tap hands to start off the championship rounds, and he races forward to engage. Allen scores a few body shots before backing off, and Holloway lets him so that he can work on the welting calf of his opponent. Holloway jabs the nose, and he walks through a head kick to score a right hand down Broadway. Holloway slows Allen coming forward by pushing off Allen’s knee to potentially hyperextend it, and he darts back when Allen springs into attack mode. Holloway gets off one more kick to the body, and he spins with a kick that misses the mark. Holloway pops Allen with three punches in rapid succession, and he rips the body with a left. Allen gives him one back with a solid right hand, but it is one-and-done while Holloway keeps combinations flowing. Holloway keeps kicking at the knee, and he digs another straight hand to the breadbasket. Chants for “Holloway” rain down in the building as he delivers one more gutbusting kick, and Allen wears it well but is heavily marked up all over. Holloway jumps in, jabs the body, and jumps away. Allen catches a kick and tries to throw Holloway down, and when the Hawaiian will not go down, he tosses a head kick at him. Holloway blocks and circles away, and he guards a second head kick that soon follows. Holloway strides in with an elbow, and Allen catches him with a right. As soon as he does, Holloway is amped up and gives him one right back. Holloway slams a kick to the ribs, and he is answered with a powerful left hook. The former champ does not flinch, and he spins with a wheel kick and drops to a knee. Holloway climbs back up and works the body with a few punches, and he pecks at the knee a few times with his shin or the ball of his foot. Holloway goes up high with a kick, and Allen lunges with a left and gets drilled upside the head with a kick. Allen rushes out with a spin kick, and Holloway concludes the round with a high kick that wraps around the guard.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holloway
Round 5
The fighters clap hands to begin the final round, and Allen is ready to throw hammers. He chases Holloway around, knocking him around with big hooks. Allen stings the former champ with a left hand, and Holloway wears it well and escapes. Holloway steps back from an elbow to reach him with a knee, and he spins with an elbow that smashes Allen right on the jaw. Allen takes his foot off the gas when absorbing this heavy blow, and Holloway kicks his side. Allen swings for the fences but cannot reach Holloway with this exchange, and Holloway stands in front of him and puts several punches on the chin. Holloway does work on the lead knee and calf, and he digs a kick to the body that makes Allen rush in and clinch up with him. Holloway pushes him off and gains space, and he kicks the body again and knees it for good measure. Allen lashes out with a right hand, and Holloway dips away from the subsequent blows. Allen kicks Holloway in the head twice, and “Blessed” absorbs them and takes a few more heavy punches as he escapes. Allen lumbers into a winging left hook, and he tosses forth a head kick that slides off the guard. Allen is met with a one-two when trying to go forward again, and Holloway intercepts him with a knee to the ribs. Holloway kicks the side once more, and he ducks a kick that skims his hair. Holloway rolls with looping, dangerous shots, and Allen is emptying the gas tank and takes a spinning back kick to the body. When Holloway lands another kick to the body, he falls over, and Allen lets him up to throw hands. Allen gets too close and ties up, and his mouthpiece flies out. Herzog replaces it while the two are clinched, and Allen tries for a body lock takedown. “Blessed” remains upright and pushes away with seconds to spare. In typical Holloway fashion, he lets the final seconds turn into a mighty brawl. Allen hurts Holloway with an elbow, and Holloway blasts him with a stream of punches that hurt Allen and put him down to a knee. Allen pops back up, looking to trade leather, but time expires. This is a terrific fight in the books, and it was a close one that lived up to the expectations. Even in defeat, Allen’s stock should not fall far, as Holloway is one of a kind and still has not lost a non-title fight in almost 10 years. Next week, the UFC goes back to the Apex with a show featuring a potential heavyweight title eliminator, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Allen (48-47 Holloway)
The Official Result
Max Holloway def. Arnold Allen via Unanimous Decision (49-46, 49-46, 48-47)
Angelo picks Max Holloway, citing his incredible volume, experience, and size advantage. He notes Holloway is only 31 and has only lost to Volkanovski and Poirier. He acknowledges Holloway has absorbed a lot of damage and his chin may give out eventually, but until then he's riding with him. He has no bet on the main event, preferring to watch without wagering.
Big Brady picks Max Holloway to win by knockout in the fourth or fifth round. He highlights Holloway's unmatched volume and durability, noting that his only recent losses are to Alexander Volkanovski. He believes Arnold Allen's only path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Holloway's chin. He expects Holloway to break Allen late.
Cody acknowledges Holloway's mileage and potential regression, but trusts his proven five-round cardio, durability, and volume. He notes Arnold Allen's low output historically and questions whether Allen can maintain high output for five rounds. He sees Holloway as still the superior fighter, though he admits Allen is improving and could win in a few years.
Connor picks Holloway but expresses hesitation, noting that Allen's southpaw style and counter-punching could pose problems similar to Poirier's approach. He acknowledges Holloway's wear and tear from a long career and many wars, but ultimately trusts Holloway's proven track record against top competition. Connor feels Allen has not yet shown he can maintain the necessary pace and composure for five rounds against Holloway.
Holloway's output and durability will overwhelm Allen, who has benefited from favorable matchmaking and low activity. Holloway's only recent losses are to Volkanovski, and he still performed well against Kattar and Rodriguez. Allen's low output style will be exposed by Holloway's volume and pressure. Expect Holloway to finish late, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.
Paul echoes Cody's reasoning, emphasizing Holloway's incredible volume and durability. He notes that Holloway landed 445 significant strikes against Calvin Kattar, questioning if Arnold Allen can keep that pace. He acknowledges Holloway may be slowing down but still finds it hard to ignore his output.
The MMA Guru picks Max Holloway to win by decision, citing Holloway's volume striking, boxing, chin, and takedown defense. He acknowledges Arnold Allen's power and recent improvements but believes Holloway's experience in championship fights and ability to take three of five rounds will prevail. He notes the -190 line is a bit high and sees value on Allen at +155, but ultimately sides with Holloway.
Zane picks Holloway, acknowledging Allen's southpaw tactics and potential but emphasizing Holloway's proven durability and pace. He notes that Allen's best wins have asterisks (Hooker at wrong weight, Kattar injury) and that Holloway has only lost to elite competition like Volkanovski and Poirier. Zane believes Holloway's volume and pressure will be too much for Allen over five rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 199 of 372 | 53% | 204 of 377 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:57 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 127 of 301 | 42% | 161 of 335 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 28 of 70 | 40% | 28 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 26 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 37 of 78 | 47% | 38 of 79 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 27 of 65 | 41% | 37 of 75 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 40 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 26 of 63 | 41% | 30 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 48 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 31 of 63 | 49% | 42 of 74 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 0 | 50 of 80 | 62% | 50 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:37 |
| Max Holloway | 0 | 19 of 54 | 35% | 26 of 61 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkanovski | 199 of 372 | 53% | 152 of 316 | 19 of 24 | 28 of 32 | 175 of 340 | 24 of 32 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 127 of 301 | 42% | 64 of 213 | 42 of 59 | 21 of 29 | 109 of 283 | 18 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkanovski | 28 of 70 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 24 of 56 | 42% | 11 of 31 | 6 of 14 | 7 of 11 | 22 of 54 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkanovski | 37 of 78 | 47% | 29 of 69 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 35 of 75 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 27 of 65 | 41% | 15 of 48 | 7 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 27 of 65 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkanovski | 40 of 74 | 54% | 31 of 63 | 5 of 6 | 4 of 5 | 34 of 65 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 26 of 63 | 41% | 16 of 51 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 22 of 59 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Alexander Volkanovski | 44 of 70 | 62% | 37 of 63 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 35 of 58 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 31 of 63 | 49% | 13 of 41 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 24 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Alexander Volkanovski | 50 of 80 | 62% | 37 of 66 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 10 | 45 of 74 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Max Holloway | 19 of 54 | 35% | 9 of 42 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 14 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Volkanovski, citing his previous two wins over Holloway and his ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Holloway took significant damage in his last fight against Yair Rodriguez and may be declining. He expects a similar outcome with Volkanovski winning a decision.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkanovski but is hesitant, acknowledging Holloway's volume and the close second fight. He likes Volkanovski's movement, kicks, and ability to mix in takedowns. He expects a close decision win for Volkanovski.
Cody thinks Volkanovski has Max's number, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and land more impactful strikes. He notes Max's volume is high but he leaves himself open to counters. He expects Volkanovski to win a decision, possibly by mixing in wrestling.
Daniel Levi leans toward Alexander Volkanovski, citing his superior fainting game, leg kicks, and ability to make in-fight adjustments. He notes that Volkanovski's heart and doggedness were key in the second fight, where he came back from down two rounds. Levi acknowledges that Holloway has value at +170 given the close nature of their previous fights (five of six judges scored them 3-2), but he believes Volkanovski is operating on a different level and could potentially dominate. He is not confident enough to bet at -200.
Volkanovski is a master at implementing game plans and adjusts well as fights go on. He won the later rounds in both previous fights. Holloway's narrative of getting stronger late doesn't hold against Volkanovski. The host prefers Volkanovski by decision at +105 rather than the moneyline.
Paul agrees Volkanovski is the rightful favorite, citing his ability to mix in takedowns and steal rounds. He prefers to bet live to get a better price, but picks Volkanovski to win.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkanovski to win by decision, citing his improved leg kick setups, grappling, and recent activity with no damage taken. He argues Holloway has taken significant damage in recent fights and that Volkanovski's shorter stature with longer reach is a stylistic nightmare. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard and notes that betting on Holloway requires knockdowns, which is unreliable.
Expert Picks (11)
Angelo picks Ilia Topuria as the final leg of his villain parlay with a full unit bet, but admits he would be happy to lose the bet if Max wins. He praises Topuria's speed, power, and wrestling entries, and believes he is the next generation of fighter. He thinks Topuria will be too fast and diverse for Max, but acknowledges Max's legendary striking and durability.
Big Brady thinks this is a very close fight. He believes Topuria will have early success but that Holloway's durability, cardio, and pace will take over in the later rounds. He notes that Holloway has never been knocked out and has absorbed the most significant strikes in UFC history, so he cannot pick anyone to knock him out. He predicts a split decision win for Holloway.
Cody picks Max Holloway as a plus 200 underdog, citing Holloway's unparalleled volume and pace, which he believes will overwhelm Topuria in the later rounds. He notes that Topuria has been outlanded in most of his fights before landing a knockout, and that Holloway has never been knocked out. Cody also mentions that Topuria's cardio slowed in the fifth round against Josh Emmett, and that Holloway's takedown defense is elite. He sprinkles on Holloway by KO in rounds 4 and 5 at long odds.
Connor picks Topuria, citing his relentless pressure and power advantage. He notes that Max Holloway, while still capable of greatness, has shown signs of age and accumulated damage, and his recent win over Gaethje was more a reflection of Gaethje's poor performance. Connor believes Topuria's pressure and power will be too much for Holloway, especially if Holloway tries to fight on the back foot.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's power edge, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Max Holloway has taken a lot of damage over his career and that Topuria's upward trajectory and maturity in the octagon give him the advantage. Vreeland also mentions that Topuria's boxing defense is superior and that he has the ability to finish Holloway, possibly becoming the first to knock him out. He is not concerned about Holloway's late-round cardio narrative, pointing to Topuria's performance against Josh Emmett in round five.
Lucrative James picks Ilia Topuria to win, citing Topuria's massive power advantage and grappling upside. He notes that Topuria can close distance, pressure Holloway against the cage, and land heavy shots, and also has submission threats. He acknowledges Holloway's elite chin and takedown defense but believes Topuria's speed and clinical punching will be too much. He predicts a KO or decision win for Topuria.
Holloway can take Topuria's best shot and then come back with a volume-heavy approach that Topuria cannot keep up with. Topuria had great cardio against Josh Emmett but will not have that luxury against Holloway, who gets stronger in deep waters. Holloway will turn up the pressure in championship rounds and get a TKO finish in the fourth or fifth round.
Paul also picks Max Holloway, emphasizing that the fight is closer to 50-50 than the odds suggest. He argues that Topuria's power is real but he gets outlanded in most fights before landing a kill shot, and that Holloway's durability and volume will be key. Paul points out that Topuria's wins over Volk and Emmett came against opponents with durability issues, and that Holloway's experience and pace will expose Topuria. He also mentions that Topuria's reluctance to fight Holloway initially suggests doubt.
The Guru picks Ilia Topuria to win by decision, citing Topuria's superior boxing and power as the prototype to beat Max Holloway. He notes that Holloway struggles against shorter opponents, as seen in the Volk trilogy, and that Topuria's low kicks and ability to cut Holloway will be key. He also mentions Holloway's recent weight cut from lightweight and scar tissue as disadvantages. The Guru predicts Topuria will hurt Holloway early, open a cut, and survive a late rally to win a damage-based decision.
Zane picked Topuria going into the fight, citing his power and ability to press and stay on the front foot, while Holloway's willingness to work the back foot and counter would be too big a hill to climb. He noted that Holloway's height, length, and diversity of skills gave Topuria trouble early, but Topuria's huge power and deadly pocket countering were the equalizer. Zane emphasized that Holloway has never been a big power puncher and could not match Topuria's power, and that Holloway's style of taking one to give three eventually caught up to him.
Zane picks Topuria, agreeing with Connor that Topuria's pressure and power are key. He notes that Holloway's recent performances have been less assertive and that Topuria's ability to counter the jab and walk opponents down will be problematic for Holloway. Zane also mentions that Holloway's best chance is to pressure Topuria, but he's not sure Holloway will do that.
No comments yet. Be the first to share your thoughts!