UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024 · Catchweight (160 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 7"
Reach 66"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 28
Height 5' 10"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mateusz Rębecki
5.21 SLpM
46.0% Str. Acc.
4.69 SApM
53.0% Str. Def.
3.38 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Myktybek Orolbai
2.78 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
2.7 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
8.77 TD Avg
59.0% TD Acc.
40.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Mateusz Rębecki
Moneyline
BetRivers +250
KO/TKO
BetRivers +950
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetRivers +650
Myktybek Orolbai
Moneyline
FanDuel -260
KO/TKO
FanDuel +390
Submission
FanDuel +550
Decision
BetRivers +150
Mateusz Rębecki - Fight History
LOSS vs Grant Dawson
Submission R3 4:42 · UFC 328 · May 09, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Grant Dawson 0 35 of 94 37% 71 of 136 1 of 3 33% 4 0 7:08
Mateusz Rębecki 1 33 of 64 51% 49 of 81 1 of 5 20% 0 1 2:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Grant Dawson 0 13 of 21 61% 24 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 2:37
Mateusz Rębecki 0 8 of 11 72% 9 of 12 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:50
2 Grant Dawson 0 20 of 69 28% 21 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:14
Mateusz Rębecki 1 24 of 51 47% 34 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:29
3 Grant Dawson 0 2 of 4 50% 26 of 31 1 of 1 100% 3 0 4:17
Mateusz Rębecki 0 1 of 2 50% 6 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Grant Dawson 35 of 94 37% 19 of 67 14 of 23 2 of 4 24 of 81 6 of 7 5 of 6
Mateusz Rębecki 33 of 64 51% 27 of 56 1 of 2 5 of 6 27 of 50 4 of 4 2 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Grant Dawson 13 of 21 61% 7 of 15 6 of 6 0 of 0 4 of 12 5 of 5 4 of 4
Mateusz Rębecki 8 of 11 72% 7 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 6 4 of 4 0 of 1
2 Grant Dawson 20 of 69 28% 10 of 48 8 of 17 2 of 4 19 of 66 1 of 2 0 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 24 of 51 47% 20 of 45 1 of 2 3 of 4 22 of 42 0 of 0 2 of 9
3 Grant Dawson 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Grant Dawson vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dawson (-170), Rebecki (+142)

Round 1
American Top Team training partners collide when Dawson (23-3-1, 11-2-1 UFC) and Rebecki (20-4, 4-3 UFC) come to blows over the next 15 minutes or fewer. Teams don’t fight for their fighters, and it is only the competitors and referee Mike Beltran—and he knows you’re alone in there. Aware of one another’s game, this could go any number of ways—hopefully that way is exciting. The athletes touch ‘em up.
Rebecki ambles his way forward, ducking and dipping his way forward. Dawson introduces himself by booting the Polish fighter in the face and cutting him open on his left eyebrow, on the very first strike of the fight. Dawson goes to the body after, and he brings up a knee when he sees Rebecki is about to take him down. The scramble is wild between the two, as Rebecki is thwarted for his efforts with Dawson circling around to take his back. Rebecki grabs the fence heartily, resulting in multiple slaps from Beltran for his foul. Rebecki stands up, with Dawson wrapped around his waist from behind threatening chokes. Dawson has a body triangle locked up, and Rebecki grabs the fencing again to try to improve his position. Beltran shuts it down. Dawson wraps up a rear-naked choke, and Rebecki lowers himself down to the floor and keeps his chin tight to his chest.
Dawson uses his toes to illegally maintain his position on Rebecki’s back by grabbing them in the fencing, and Rebecki is leaned over trying to shimmy his training partner off of him. Rebecki posts on both arms, and Dawson strips them away. Rebecki hits a quick switch out of nowhere to turn about and put Dawson on his seat against the wire. Dawson wall-walks to get upright before long, and now it is Rebecki who has his arms around a waist. Rebecki raps a few right hands on the side of the dome, and he opens up with an uppercut and a right hand when they manage to break. Dawson kicks him twice in the body, and his knee partially finds its target on the chest. Rebecki boots Dawson’s leg out from beneath him, and when Dawson scrambles to his feet, the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dawson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dawson

Round 2
The two are glad to touch gloves to get going, and Dawson chambers his knee ready for Rebecki to advance towards him. Rebecki does not sprint his way in, so Dawson kicks him in the face. Rebecki loads up a monster right hand and knocks Dawson off his feet. Dawson shells up to protect himself and stand up, and Rebecki clings to him rather than laying into him with power punches. Dawson does not mind being stuck controlled by his opponent because it means he can get his wits about him again. Dawson offers a no-look elbow from behind to no effect, and Rebecki slowly slugs him with a few more rights until they separate. Dawson gets back to kicking Rebecki in the ribs repeatedly. Dawson sells out for a spinning wheel kick, but he is out of range and off-balance as well. Rebecki lumbers his way forward, straight into a head kick. He still changes levels after taking the kick, and he bails on it and guard against a jump knee. Rebecki tags Dawson with a left hand while Dawson is looking for big knees and kicks.
Dawson kicks his foe’s feet out, and when Rebecki stands, Dawson is in his face putting hands on him. Rebecki breaks off and threatens with fireball left hands. Dawson catches him with a right. Rebecki turns his hips into a low kick, and he misses a haymaker by a matter of inches. Rebecki leaps forward to split the guard with a left, and he ducks into a kick when slinging another. Dawson shoots, and Rebecki sprawls to circle around and away. Dawson kicks, and Rebecki knocks him to his seat. Dawson climbs back up and gets clubbed on the ear with a right hand and a left. Dawson still marches forward despite getting tagged, and he clinches up his foe. Fans do not like the slowdown or the tactic. Dawson drills a knee to the chest and splits off to kick Rebecki in the face. Rebecki catches the kick and trips Dawson up to hurl him indiscriminately to the mat. Rebecki leans on top of Dawson until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
A double clap of hands gets things going in the last round. Both men wing something at one another and pull back, and the first to commit is Dawson. Dawson kicks Rebecki in the head, and Rebecki trips out his other leg. Dawson gets hold of Rebecki in a scramble and takes his back standing up. The two roll to the mat, with Dawson following the whole time and securing the back take. Dawson ties up the body triangle and starts smacking the Polish fighter with short punches on either side of the temple. Rebecki remains calm while stuck in this dominant position defending the rear-naked choke, so Dawson switches to neck crank. Rebecki’s arms go slacked, and Beltran is about to step in but Rebecki motions double thumbs-up to him. This is a strategy of his, as it turns out, and he is able to wriggle himself free. Dawson fastens another choke around the chin, and Rebecki defends well.
Dawson keeps offering setups from either side, and Rebecki hand-fights him to prevent from anything getting close. Rebecki turns over to alleviate some of the pressure. Dawson follows him every which way and beats down Rebecki with punches and elbows when a choke is not there. “KGD” rolls his man over and keeps his left arm wrapped on the chin to set a trap. Rebecki turns just the wrong way, and
Dawson fastens his arm beneath the jaw in the form of a modified rear-naked choke. Rebecki frantically fights the hands but is in big trouble. This time, Dawson is using one single arm, but it is powerful enough that the light slowly leaves Rebecki’s eyes, drifting towards unconsciousness as angels and demons flicker across his vision. Before he goes all the way out, Rebecki submits.
Dawson immediately releases his grip and dismounts his foe to drop to his knee and let out his emotions. Manly tears flow from his face, who later explains to commentator Joe Rogan that he just learned this particular version of this submission, a "genie" choke, recently.

The Official Result
Grant Dawson def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:42 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki because he is exciting and never stops trying to finish. He thinks the fight is either Grant Dawson gets takedowns and dominates, or Rębecki stuffs the first takedown and knocks him out. He admits he can't bring himself to root against the most exciting guy in the division.

"I am going to pick Mataus Rebecci because I just can't bring my body to root against the most exciting guy for the indivision."
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki, emphasizing his fast starts, intent to finish, and never-quit attitude. He notes Dawson is a wrestler who will shoot takedowns, but Rębecki has never accepted a position and will keep moving forward. He thinks Rębecki has 15 minutes to find a finish over Dawson, who can be finished. He admits he cannot bet on Rębecki due to his recklessness.

Angelo says he doesn't know if he could bet on Rębecki because he is too reckless.
"I'm picking Mat Rebecki. If you're picking Grant Dawson, that means you're rooting for one of the most boring fighters in the history of this division."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Big Brady leans Grant Dawson, citing his excellent ground game and improved cardio at American Top Team. He notes Rębecki does not wear damage well and has questionable cardio. Brady predicts Dawson will get takedowns and ground-and-pound, leading to a late-round TKO, specifically third round. He also mentions a prop on Underdog for Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes.

Underdog: Rębecki under 32.5 significant strikes
"I'm taking Grant Dawson to win this fight by late round TKO. Third round TKO."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Cody picks Dawson, citing his wrestling advantage and Rebecki's cardio issues. He thinks Dawson can take Rebecki down and control him, avoiding Rebecki's power. Cody expects Dawson to win by decision.

"I am taking Grant Dawson. And I'm not going to fault anybody taking that dog shot and Rebecki."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

Connor also picks Dawson hesitantly. He emphasizes that Dawson is a mediocre athlete who stifles opponents but often fades late. Rębecki is difficult to discourage and may take over in the third round. Connor notes that most of Dawson's opponents are either finished early or more tired than him in the third, but Rębecki's toughness could change that.

Dawson opened at -120, now -165; Rębecki opened at +100, now +145.
"There's a chance for Rębecki. He is a tireless little Wolverine."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel picks Rębecki, acknowledging Dawson's top control danger but believing Rębecki's grappling with elite opponents and striking advantage will lead to an upset. He notes Rębecki's win over Mctobec Oral as proof of his grappling credentials.

"I'm actually go opposite. Listen, I know the danger if if uh Dawson gets on top, but the thing about it is Rambky proved to me he can grapple with elite guys when he beat Mctobec Oral by and I …"
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident picked May 9, 2026 (fight day)
Grant Dawson

Predicted method: Decision. Dawson's wrestling-heavy approach (3.81 takedowns per round) should overwhelm Rębecki, who has only 50% takedown defense and has lost three of his last four. Rębecki is aggressive on the feet (5.21 SLpM) but leaves himself open to takedowns. Dawson's 1.1 submission average and top control will be key; he can grind out a decision or find a submission. Rębecki's only chance is a knockout, but Dawson has never been knocked out. Expect Dawson to control the fight and win by decision or submission.

Dawson by decision +155
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Jacob picks Rębecki by first-round knockout at +500. He thinks Grant Dawson has shown he can be dropped easily and that Rębecki will be swinging for the fences. He notes that Dawson has issues in the first round and that Rębecki is a short stocky guy who is hard to take down.

first round knockout +500
"Matteas Rebecki first round knockout plus 500. Yeah, I'm going to be playing that."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked May 3, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Lucrative James picks Grant Dawson because he believes Dawson's elite wrestling and grappling will overwhelm Mateusz Rębecki if the fight goes past the first round. He notes that Rębecki's only path to victory is an early knockout, as Dawson has been finished early before. He predicts Dawson will win by ground and pound, similar to Diego Ferreira's win over Rębecki.

"I'll take Grant Dawson to win this fight and I'll say he wins it via ground and pound."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 5, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

The host picks Dawson, believing his grappling and gas tank will be superior. He notes that Rębecki throws wide power shots that leave openings for Dawson to get takedowns. He expects Dawson to grind out a decision, though he acknowledges Rębecki's power and grappling background could make it close. He is not interested at -160 but thinks Dawson wins.

"I'm going to go Dawson by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 6, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Grant Dawson

Paul leans Dawson but is not fully confident. He notes Dawson's wrestling and Rebecki's vulnerability to takedowns, but also Rebecki's power and durability. Paul expects a close fight but gives Dawson the edge.

"For me, it's dog or pass and what I can expect to be a close competitive fight."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki as an underdog, citing his solid takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet. He notes Dawson's chin is a concern after being KO'd by Manuel Torres and Bobby Green. He believes Rębecki's power and durability will catch Dawson, predicting a KO win.

by KO
"I'm going to go with Matteas Rebecki as a slight underdog here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Grant Dawson

Zane picks Dawson but is hesitant. He notes that Dawson will likely outwrestle Rębecki early, but Rębecki is a tough grinder who may come on late as Dawson fades. Zane compares it to the Ricky Glenn fight where Dawson lost a late lead. He thinks Dawson will win the first two rounds but could lose the third, making it a risky pick.

Dawson opened at -120, now -165; Rębecki opened at +100, now +145.
"I would love for it to be the Grant Dawson loses rather and I feel awesome about it. God knows it would be more fun, but I don't think it will be."
LOSS vs Ľudovít Klein
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 321 · Oct 25, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ľudovít Klein 0 82 of 140 58% 90 of 149 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 72 of 159 45% 113 of 208 3 of 12 25% 0 0 5:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ľudovít Klein 0 25 of 45 55% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 21 of 50 42% 21 of 50 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:47
2 Ľudovít Klein 0 38 of 67 56% 41 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 21 of 61 34% 22 of 62 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:23
3 Ľudovít Klein 0 19 of 28 67% 24 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 30 of 48 62% 70 of 96 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ľudovít Klein 82 of 140 58% 69 of 127 9 of 9 4 of 4 72 of 126 0 of 2 10 of 12
Mateusz Rębecki 72 of 159 45% 55 of 139 11 of 14 6 of 6 45 of 130 4 of 4 23 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ľudovít Klein 25 of 45 55% 22 of 42 2 of 2 1 of 1 25 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 50 42% 11 of 40 6 of 6 4 of 4 19 of 48 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Ľudovít Klein 38 of 67 56% 28 of 57 7 of 7 3 of 3 37 of 65 0 of 1 1 of 1
Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 61 34% 16 of 53 3 of 6 2 of 2 21 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Ľudovít Klein 19 of 28 67% 19 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 10 of 16 0 of 1 9 of 11
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 48 62% 28 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 21 2 of 2 23 of 25
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ludovit Klein vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Klein (-135), Rebecki (+114)

Round 1
As this relatively deep event keeps rolling on, a pair of talented 155ers on the edge of lightweight contention with hopes that the victor earns a number next to their name on Monday. Whether it will be “Mr. Highlight” Klein (23-5-1, 7-3-1 UFC) or Polish powerhouse Rebecki (20-3, 4-2 UFC), referee Marc Goddard will be the first to know. There is a fist bump before the two men throw down.
Klein sticks his man with a jab and slips back, watching out for a short right hook coming at him. Rebecki probes with a front kick as he presses forward, and the two crash into one another as Klein gets off a left hand that marks the Polish fighter up already. Klein stings Rebecki with a one-two, and Rebecki’s knees buckle but he steels himself and fires back with a vengeance. Klein retreats, evading a big few strikes as Rebecki wants blood. Klein potshots him with distant strikes, using his jab to try to keep Rebecki back. Rebecki ignores it and loads up on power left hands, and he jumps and misses with a knee with leaping forward. Both fighter swing it out, with Klein able to move and prepare for Rebecki’s advances. Rebecki rushes in for a double, and Klein belts him in the guts with a flush knee. Rebecki completely no-sells it so he can transition to a single, and he lifts Klein’s leg up but is unable to sling him down on his first efforts.
Rebecki lets go of the leg of his opponent to loop a left hand upstairs, and he attacks the other leg and still cannot take the fight down. Klein springs back, and he potshots the Polish man with his sharp jab. Rebecki pushes out with a front kick and uses it to hurl a right hand behind it, only for Klein to get to him first. Rebecki runs forward, stepping on Klein’s foot and tripping him up. Klein bounces off his seat and gets right back up, allowing Rebecki to swing way past him as Rebecki is putting everything into his punches while Klein is much more content to touch and stay evasive. Rebecki walks into a left hand, and he dips down directly into a head kick. They both trade low kicks, with Klein’s jab opening a cut on the cheek and eyebrow of the left side of Rebecki’s face. Rebecki stutter-steps his way in, takes a one-two on the chin and gives back a hard right hand offering. Klein catches Rebecki on the way in with a check right hook, and he uses his jab to end the round with Rebecki’s face a mess.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klein

Round 2
The lightweights touch gloves to get started in the second stanza, and Rebecki is the aggressor again outright. Klein sticks him with a solid left hand, and leg kicks fly from both men. Klein wraps his shin up and around Rebecki’s noggin, and Rebecki takes it cleanly and engages in a brief brawl. Klein tries to keep out of the direct slugfests, instead using his range and reach to peck at his man. Klein slips something and nails Rebecki with an uppercut, and Rebecki’s eyes go wide as he is compromised but still more than willing to trade hands. Rather than go after Rebecki and try to put him away, Klein has to watch out for the looping strikes zooming his way regularly. Rebecki may be bloodied and stung, but he is still putting everything into his punches and uses them to secure a clean double-leg. Klein rebounds off the floor and walks his way up, so Rebecki mat returns him with emphasis. Rebecki drives down a few punches before Klein climbs back up, and Klein uses a sharp elbow to further blood Rebecki up on the way up.
Rebecki keeps plodding forward, throwing everything into his hooks, and he gets intercepted by the Slovakian’s sharp offense. Klein’s offense further shreds open the cut around Rebecki’s eye, and he chains a few punches into it and kicks him on the other side of the dome to ring his bell. Rebecki’s face has become festive as Halloween is coming up, a bloody mask but still plenty of life behind his eyes. Klein watches Rebecki swing for the bleachers and intercepts him or dips out of the way in time. Rebecki connects with a jump knee, and Klein shrugs off a few strikes to further connect with damaging punches. Klein kicks Rebecki square in the face, and Rebecki barely budgets. Klein styles on his man with punches and a head kick, and Rebecki is stuck with a lot of damage and five minutes left to work.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Klein
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Klein

Round 3
Despite taking untold damage, Rebecki is loaded for bear and comes out of his corner accordingly. Rebecki walks Klein down and even shoots for a takedown, all while Klein is marking him up with straight, long punches. Klein resets and rolls with an overhand right to swing back with a booming right of his own, and he snaps out his jab to solid effect. Rebecki pursues a single, pushing Klein to the wall until he suddenly spins the other direction and yanks Klein to the floor. “Mr. Highlight,” as if he has springs in his shorts, bounces off the mat. Rebecki drags him down again, and he starts to bash and brutalize Klein with power punches. Suddenly, Klein’s body language changes as he starts to get hurt from the heavy blows, and he is no longer as eager and able to bounce back up. Whether injured, rung up or something else, Klein suddenly is practically disabled on his back.
Rebecki, seated in half guard, rains down a seemingly unending stream of left hands. Klein rips him open with a nasty elbow off his back, and blood from the Polish athlete almost immediately covers Klein’s face. The eternally tough Rebecki steps over to the side, and he looks to crucify Klein by putting Klein’s right arm between his legs. Klein bucks, and he briefly finds himself in crucifix position taking damage. Rebecki sits up and starts punishing Klein with elbows, the two lightweights become a horror show of blood, violence and high-amplitude limbs flying. Rebecki keeps pounding on the deflated Klein, who manages to hang on to the bell somehow. Klein motions to his corner that his right ankle is trashed, which could explain why he suddenly seemed to shut off in the third round as if he was shot with a tranquilizer dart.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Klein)

The Official Result
Ludovit Klein def. Mateusz Rebecki via Majority Decision (29-28, 28-27, 28-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Angelo picks Ludovit Klein despite loving Mateusz Rebecki's relentless style and heart. He notes that Rebecki bleeds excessively and cuts easily, which will be a problem against a technical striker like Klein. Angelo thinks Rebecki could win if he didn't wear damage so badly, but the blood will sway judges. He considers Rebecki a phenomenal underdog and might bet him on a round handicap if the line widens.

I'm going to wait for these prop bets, and if I get lucky, the line widens and widens and widens, and then I can bet Mateusz Rebecki at plus three and a half
"Mateusz Rebecki, unfortunately, cannot be the pick with how bloody this dude was a month ago heading into this fight. I think he's a phenomenal underdog. If you want to take the shot, I'm going to pick Ludovit Klein."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Big Brady picks Ľudovít Klein, primarily due to concerns about Mateusz Rębecki's activity and accumulated damage. He notes Rębecki has fought frequently, taking severe facial damage in recent fights, and is returning just two months after a brutal war with Chris Duncan. Brady believes Rębecki's face will swell and bleed, influencing judges, and that Klein will win a damage-based decision. He calls it a war but avoids betting on it.

Klein by decision; fight will be a war; not touching it from a betting perspective
"I'm going to go Klein. I don't love it, but I'm going to go Klein to win this fight with a damage base decision. I think this is going to be an absolute war."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Cody picks Ľudovít Klein, citing his reach advantage (6 inches) and precise striking. He notes that Rębecki has short arms (66-inch reach) and tends to overswing, leaving himself open. Klein's takedown defense is solid, and he fights well at range. Cody believes Klein will win a decision by staying on the outside and picking Rębecki apart.

"for me, it's Ludovit Klein."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Connor finds this fight hard to call but leans toward Rębecki. He notes that Klein is a dynamic but low-output range striker who struggles when pressured. Rębecki is pathologically aggressive and physically strong, which could overwhelm Klein. However, Connor acknowledges that Klein has one-shot KO power and that Rębecki may run into danger. He compares Rębecki favorably to Mason Jones, who lost to Klein, citing Rębecki's superior athleticism and durability.

Odds moving in the wrong direction; Klein is the favorite at -148, but Connor thinks Rębecki is the right pick.
"I'm kind of thinking I'll pick Rębecki here. Yeah, I think that's where I land as well, but it is tough because he will run into these sniping shots that Klein throws."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Daniel Vreeland believes Klein's high kick and technical striking will be the difference against the durable but damage-prone Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki absorbs a lot of damage and has been finished before, and that Klein's reach and disguised high kick could catch him. He also thinks the narrative that Klein can't handle a dog fight is exaggerated, citing wins over Mason Jones and Ignacio Bahamondes.

wins by KO (head kick)
"I'm going to pick him to come out here and actually highkick knock out the ultra tough Matteo Rambky."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

Lucrative James picks Ľudovít Klein to win by KO, citing his superior striking and head kicks. He believes Rębecki is coming back too soon after a war with Chris Duncan and will be compromised. He notes Rębecki's path to victory is wrestling, but doubts he can take Klein down and control him. He predicts body shots will drop Rębecki's hands, setting up a head kick knockout.

KO
"I think Ludvik Klein headkick knockout. I I really do, man. Body shots are going to add up and when the hands drop, the headkick is coming."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The host is not a big Klein fan but believes Klein's precision striking, movement, and takedown defense will allow him to batter Rębecki on the feet, similar to what Chris Duncan did. He predicts a decision win.

decision
"I think that Klein has the perfect style of precision striking, good movement, and good enough takedown defense to batter Romeki on the feet..."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 22, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul leans towards Rębecki but is hesitant due to his inconsistency. He notes that Rębecki has cost him money in the past, but at plus money, he sees value. Paul acknowledges Klein's low volume and Rębecki's ability to make it a dogfight, but admits he can't fully trust Rębecki.

"I'm going to lean Rebecki, but I don't think I'm going to bet it, because this guy has cost me a whole bunch of money as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 21, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Ľudovít Klein

The MMA Guru picks Ľudovít Klein by TKO in round two. He argues that Mateusz Rębecki has taken too much damage in his last two fights and is predictable, circling into the same hooks. Klein is a sharpshooter with a reach advantage and good takedown defense. He expects Klein to sting Rębecki with something big and finish him, possibly breaking his nose or swelling his eye. He notes that Klein has had stinkers but is technical and should not get outgrappled.

TKO in round two
"I'm going to take Ludovit Klein by TKO here over Mateusz Rebequi, who's just a little bit too predictable."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 24, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane also picks Rębecki, citing Klein's lack of a consistent range striking game and his tendency to be a 'powerful potshotter' without the connective tissue. He believes Rębecki's relentless aggression and physicality will be too much for Klein, despite the risk of running into a big shot. Zane notes that Klein's finishes in the UFC have come against subpar competition.

"Rębecki is just too reliable an aggressor. So I think I'm going to take Rębecki, but it is a tough fight to call."
LOSS vs Chris Duncan
DEC R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Taira vs. Park · Aug 02, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Duncan 0 114 of 267 42% 123 of 278 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:23
Mateusz Rębecki 0 92 of 222 41% 95 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Duncan 0 32 of 74 43% 38 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:00
Mateusz Rębecki 0 19 of 62 30% 19 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Chris Duncan 0 38 of 88 43% 38 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mateusz Rębecki 0 25 of 62 40% 26 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chris Duncan 0 44 of 105 41% 47 of 109 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:04
Mateusz Rębecki 0 48 of 98 48% 50 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Duncan 114 of 267 42% 88 of 235 7 of 13 19 of 19 104 of 256 10 of 11 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 92 of 222 41% 67 of 181 20 of 35 5 of 6 85 of 214 7 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Duncan 32 of 74 43% 20 of 61 1 of 2 11 of 11 30 of 72 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 19 of 62 30% 10 of 47 6 of 12 3 of 3 19 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chris Duncan 38 of 88 43% 32 of 78 0 of 4 6 of 6 38 of 88 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 25 of 62 40% 17 of 48 8 of 13 0 of 1 25 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chris Duncan 44 of 105 41% 36 of 96 6 of 7 2 of 2 36 of 96 8 of 9 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 48 of 98 48% 40 of 86 6 of 10 2 of 2 41 of 90 7 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chris Duncan vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-200); Duncan (+170)

Round 1
Remaining in the lightweight division for the co-main event, a pair of friends and training partners at American Top Team will throw down for Coconut Creek bragging rights. Both men happen to be a win or two from ranked opposition, so this “separating wheat from chaff” matchup has fairly high stakes relative to most other fights on the card—the preceding Rosa vs. Cornolle pairing was the lone bout on the card between two ranked combatants. Rebecki (20-2, 4-1 UFC) and Duncan (13-2, 4-1 UFC) will handle their business with matching 4-1 records in the UFC at stake, and referee Kerry Hatley will serve as the third man in the Octagon. The teammates touch gloves before determining how exactly how much pain they wish to inflict on one another.
Duncan leads off immediately with a head kick, and Rebecki comes right after him swinging. Rebecki loads up on his left hand, and Duncan knocks him back with his own right hook. The two are talking to one another as they load up with massive power—at this point, it appears they are going brawl it out. Rebecki knocks Duncan down to the ground with his swinging shots, and Duncan is able to get back to his feet. As they trade again, a giant mouse develops on the top right corner of Rebecki’s head. Rebecki takes Duncan down briefly, and Duncan threatens off his back with an elbow and then tries to get hold of a submission. Rebecki backs out and stands up, with Duncan following suit. Rebecki is quick get put his foot on the gas once more, and Duncan fires back with impunity and opens a cut on Rebecki’s forehead above his right eyebrow. Duncan sits down on an elbow that Rebecki eats like a steak, and Rebecki continues to walk through damaging blows.
Duncan stays on his back foot attacking with body kicks, and Rebecki gets close to him and drives home three quick punches. Duncan strikes with another elbow and whiffs on a head kick, and he recovers after getting countered. Duncan goes for a body kick, and Rebecki counters cleanly with a right hook. Duncan drives a knee to the body and falls to his back, and Rebecki tackles him down and looks to get to the guard. Duncan turns over while under fire to get to his feet, and Rebecki is clinging to him from behind. Rebecki leans on his training partner, and Duncan grabs the fence to get a better position. Duncan breaks out of the grip around his waist, and they proceed to trade long straight punches. Duncan steps in with a knee and is wobbled by an overhand right. Rebecki swings with everything he has, a left hand jacking Duncan in the jaw but not hurting him. Duncan scores a few elbows, and the tense, vicious round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Rebecki comes right out of his corner ready to attack, and he does just that by nailing Duncan with a crisp one-two. Duncan counters with a right hand, and he is reached by a left hook upstairs. Duncan delivers a body kick as Rebecki comes at him, and he does this again as Rebecki is trying to swing for the bleachers. Duncan misses on a kick, and Rebecki is bleeding again and strikes the body to open up head shots. Rebecki lobs a big left and a right that land flush on the sides of his foe’s head, and Duncan appears to get his foe’s attention with a sharp right hand. The Scotsman follows with a head kick that Rebecki somehow absorbs, barely still with it. Rebecki blinks it out and shoots for a double, and he takes a knee on the jaw on the way in. Duncan worms his way out the position to work back upright, and he elbows his teammate in the cut that has developed swelling around the gaping wound.
Rebecki does not care about the damage, blood in his eyes and a golf ball on his forehead, as he loops huge punches at Duncan again and again. Rebecki’s huge haymakers have swelled up Duncan’s eyes, and both men are going to need some recovery time when this is all said and done. Duncan rips a kick to the body and then stabs him in the torso with his toes. Rebecki lowers his guard to defend his guts, compromised from the strike, so Duncan attacks him with an elbow up top. Duncan goes to the body with kicks, and even when blocked, Rebecki takes them hard on the arms. Rebecki loads up on three punches to the dome, and he chases after Duncan with left hands as Duncan’s right eye balloons. Duncan kicks the front leg and jabs the gaping wound on his foe’s head, while Rebecki chases after him. Duncan knees him in the belly, and they trade hands right to the bell. Rebecki’s right eye is nearly swollen shut, and this one might not make it to the third round because of how trashed his face is.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
Rebecki is cleared between rounds, and he comes out of his corner like a berserker. Swinging his way forward to shoot for takedown, he gets Duncan down and pops back up without concern. Rebecki lets him up so he can punch him in the face, and they proceed to trade hilariously heavy leather. Duncan intercepts his hard-swinging foe with faster strikes, backing off the Polish brawler and forcing a shot out of him. Duncan stops it and blocks the oncoming fire, but Rebecki still gets through. Duncan lands a body kick, and Rebecki still manages to shoot in on his hips. Duncan hits the deck and threatens with an anaconda choke, rolling through it to lock it down, but Rebecki rolls through it further to escape. They both get up, and Duncan aims a head kick at Rebecki’s leaking visage. Rebecki looks for takedowns as he appears to be fading, while Duncan beats on him with elbows. Rebecki rips open a cut on Duncan’s left eye, and Duncan completely ignores it as he bashes Rebecki in the swollen eye. Just bleed indeed.
Rebecki has his right eye closed, and Duncan closes in to tie him up to get a few seconds to catch his wind before they re-engage. Duncan stabs the body with his foot, and Rebecki is right in his face slugging him. Rebecki loops a left hand and zips an uppercut through the guard. Both men are bloodied and battered, but they continue to bang. Duncan wobbles back, starting to feel it himself, and Rebecki somehow is willing himself into a second or third wind. Duncan pushes “Chinczyk” to the fence, and Rebecki explodes out and hurls punches in bunches. Duncan boots him in the head, and Rebecki is impossibly tough as he tanks it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Duncan lines up a knee to the forehead, and Rebecki unloads several uppercuts on the inside. They split up, and smash one another in the face right until time expires. Blood pours out of various wounds on both men, and Rebecki collapses to his knees while Duncan raises his arms in the air. What a titanic tussle, somehow outdoing the match before it and putting itself in contention for “Fight of the Year.” TLDR? Go back and watch this somehow.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Duncan)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Duncan (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Chris Duncan def. Mateusz Rebecki via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Connor picks Duncan despite the fight being a toss-up. He believes Duncan is more naturally dangerous as a finisher and power striker, and that his improved shot selection and calmness under pressure will allow him to land big shots. He acknowledges Rębecki's pressure and durability could wear Duncan down, but trusts Duncan's one-shot power to turn the fight.

"I think I'm gonna take Duncan here. I just like the potential for him as a finisher and as a power striker in this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 26, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Chris Duncan

Lucrative James admits bias as a friend of Chris Duncan but provides a detailed breakdown. He believes Duncan has the size and reach advantage, better overall striking with kicks and range management, and the power to hurt Rębecki. He thinks Rębecki will struggle to take Duncan down due to Duncan's strength and ability to get back up, and that Rębecki may gas out if he grapples too much. He predicts a war where Duncan hurts Rębecki and finishes with a submission in round 2. He also mentions playing an under on the fight not going to decision.

Fight doesn't go to decision; Submission round 2
"Chris Duncan submission round two after a war. He hurts Rebecki, jumps on the gilly."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane picks Rębecki, noting that Rębecki's constant pressure, body work, and clinch grinding could overwhelm Duncan, who has struggled against aggressive fighters like Manuel Torres. He questions whether Duncan's improved shot selection will hold up against Rębecki's relentless pace. Zane sees Rębecki as a more consistent process fighter who can wear down opponents over time.

"I'll just take Rubisky. Yeah, it's been a minute since I've seen somebody like this does stand out to me on Chris Duncan's records that these are some pretty measured long range fighters that he has been taking on."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 1 71 of 146 48% 93 of 174 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:24
Myktybek Orolbai 0 61 of 135 45% 85 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 1 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Myktybek Orolbai 0 25 of 57 43% 28 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:44
3 Mateusz Rębecki 1 21 of 34 61% 42 of 61 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:09
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 71 of 146 48% 52 of 123 10 of 11 9 of 12 54 of 126 5 of 6 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 61 of 135 45% 46 of 114 6 of 11 9 of 10 60 of 133 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 27 of 57 47% 15 of 43 7 of 7 5 of 7 26 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 2 of 4 7 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 25 of 57 43% 19 of 50 4 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cerqueira (-112), Aslan (-108)

Round 1
Another victim of a weigh-in day switcheroo, the two lightweights in Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC) and Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) now find themselves competing at a 160-pound catchweight. It is currently unclear which man struggled to make weight properly—or it could be both—as they comfortably reached that mark together. Referee Vitor Ribeiro draws the charge for this matchup outside of standard weight divisions, and he checks the fight in as the two men tap their gloves together. Rebecki strides forward ready to throw hands, and he punches his way in and clashes his chest against his opponent’s. Orolbai pushes him back, and gets tagged by a left hand. The sheer momentum of the two make them crash together more than once, and Rebecki is throwing everything he has at his opponent. Rebecki pitches out a left hand that reddens the nose of his adversary, and leg kicks are traded. Orolbai sneaks in a short right, and Rebecki slides to the side and batters his opponent on both sides of the head with power punches. Orolbai pushes out a right hand, and they bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Rebecki punches his way into a clinch, and he escapes before Orolbai can take advantage of it. Rebecki chops at the front leg and spins around, and he loads up on heavy blows that do not make Orolbai budge one inch. Orolbai tosses out a head kick after a one-two, and Rebecki counters with a clubbing left hand. Rebecki’s face begins to turn red from a few absorbed blows back his direction, and he pays it no mind as he loads up on his big left. Orolbai sticks his opponent with a right and gets blasted with a scooping left hand, and it causes immediate damage that swells up his right eye. Orolbai’s eye balloons from the power punches, and Rebecki targets it like a bullseye. Rebecki chops down the front leg, and Orolbai walks him down and just misses with a head kick. A left hand from the Polish fighter opens up the nose, and he gets knocked down from a counter right that might have been from him being off-balance. The horn sounds as Rebecki scrambles back upright to attack again.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Ribeiro calls in the physician to example Orolbai’s swollen right eye, which has almost completely closed between rounds. Orolbai passes the vision test and is cleared to continue for now. He starts off the round looking for a takedown, hoping to stifle the momentum of Rebecki. The Polish fighter loads up so hard with his left hand that he dislodges his own mouthpiece, and resets it and eats a huge right hand on the jaw. Orolbai connects with a head kick and shoots for a takedown, and the tree stump that is Rebecki stops it in its tracks. Orolbai splits the guard with an uppercut, and he loads up on massive right hands in hopes of hurting Rebecki or opening something up. This allows Rebecki to wrap his hands around the waist and push him against the fence. Orolbai drops down to the floor for a takedown, and although he trips Rebecki up, he cannot ground Rebecki. “Chinczyk” checks Orolbai’s chin with a left hand, and Orolbai has to take a moment to recover from it and absorbs a thunderous left on the busted eye. The beacon of a swollen eye is the perfect place for Rebecki to punch, and Rebecki punches it again and again. Rebecki uses a leg kick to open up a right hook, and he gets caught by a right hand from his opponent but does not budge. Instead, Rebecki surges forward with a wild left hand, and he dips away from an uppercut. Rebecki hammers the front leg with a kick and goes up top with a left, and Orolbai checks a second kick and shoots in for a double. Rebecki uses the fence at his back to stay upright, but a subsequent effort from Orolbai drags him to the ground. Before they hit the canvas, Orolbai appears to crash his head into his opponent’s and a cut on Rebecki’s eye splits open and starts pouring blood. Rebecki wipes at it but keeps swinging with full power, and Orolbai measures him with uppercuts and somehow counters him. Orolbai rolls with the punches and snaps the head to the side with an elbow, and he gets popped with two right hooks and completely shrugs them off. Orolbai connects with a left, absorbs a one-two, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai

Round 3
With damage on both right eyes, doctors clear them without even needing to check on the fighters’ conditions. Orolbai opens up in the final round with an elbow, aimed at the cut. Rebecki unloads a left hand on the swollen eye socket, and it is miraculous that Orolbai can see out if it. Rebecki blasts his man in the face with a right hand as Orolbai is attacking with an elbow, and a bomb of a second right hand sends Orolbai crashing to the mat. Rebecki pours it on with an onslaught of right hands, smashing Orolbai’s nose to pieces and causing blood to spray across the Octagon. Ribeiro watches on closely but does not intervene, and Rebecki beats Orolbai like a rented mule. Rebecki wrenches Orolbai to the floor, hammering the fighter from Kyrgyzstan but not eliciting referee intervention. Orolbai muscles his way to a knee and his feet, and he continues to take destructive right hands and pursues a single. Rebecki remains on his feet despite Orolbai’s attempts, and he lowers himself to a knee and starts absorbing rights of his own. Rebecki turns the tables on his opponent and dumps him to his backside, climbing into top position while blood covers both men. It comes from both fighters, who leak and cover the mat as well. Through sheer force of will, Orolbai turns his opponent around and pounds on him with left hands and elbows to the body. Orolbai considers an arm-triangle choke but slips off the side due to the massive blood flow. Orolbai sits in half guard as Rebecki clings to his wrist, and Rebecki bursts back to his feet and is pushed to the wall. Orolbai is pushed away, and he drives a one-two on the chin. Rebecki tanks it and eats another power punch, and Orolbai rocks him with a huge right hook. Rebecki is totally spent, and he leans his back to the wall and survives to the bell. What a fantastic bloodbath, one instantly worthy of “Fight of the Night” and plenty of attention from physicians in the next few minutes. Just bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Myktybek Orolbai via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

"motto's the pick again super close fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going to take my titty back here to win this fight and I think he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up for the much larger man or lebi"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

"Yeah, that's the thing. I think I could see Robesky having a lot of success early. ... But if he can't ever stop from having to fight it off, yeah, then I, yeah, I think he's going to get tired …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

"M Toc oral by I mean like oralay is the clear pick here I think he wears him down and gets him out of there too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

"I'm going to go with him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

"I'm glad I'm picking him then um if he's the clear pick yeah ori's been very good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Orolbai wins by third-round finish or decision
"I do believe orai has the cardio and scrambling Advantage which should allow him to stay out of too much danger early on in this matchup and then grind this fed out either winning a third round finish or winning …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

"orabi is just a mountain of a man at this Division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki I think he can push more when the going gets tough."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

"i picked or i'll be but i was really worried going in that he was going to hit a wall"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

"I'm inclined to pick him just because I think, I just think he's incredibly focused on making his fight happen. And I think if he gets that fight, even if he's not all that overwhelming at first, it is going …"
TKO (punches) R3 4:51 · UFC on ESPN: Lewis vs. Nascimento · May 11, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 123 of 241 51% 151 of 272 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:12
Mateusz Rębecki 1 52 of 137 37% 60 of 146 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 21 of 65 32% 28 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mateusz Rębecki 1 30 of 60 50% 35 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:16
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 40 of 79 50% 49 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:25
Mateusz Rębecki 0 16 of 48 33% 19 of 51 3 of 4 75% 0 0 0:55
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 62 of 97 63% 74 of 111 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
Mateusz Rębecki 0 6 of 29 20% 6 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlos Diego Ferreira 123 of 241 51% 94 of 189 28 of 51 1 of 1 94 of 203 0 of 1 29 of 37
Mateusz Rębecki 52 of 137 37% 34 of 109 11 of 21 7 of 7 46 of 129 0 of 0 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlos Diego Ferreira 21 of 65 32% 15 of 51 6 of 14 0 of 0 21 of 64 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mateusz Rębecki 30 of 60 50% 21 of 51 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 52 0 of 0 6 of 8
2 Carlos Diego Ferreira 40 of 79 50% 31 of 61 8 of 17 1 of 1 38 of 77 0 of 0 2 of 2
Mateusz Rębecki 16 of 48 33% 12 of 39 1 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Carlos Diego Ferreira 62 of 97 63% 48 of 77 14 of 20 0 of 0 35 of 62 0 of 0 27 of 35
Mateusz Rębecki 6 of 29 20% 1 of 19 3 of 8 2 of 2 6 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-310), Ferreira (+250)

Round 1
Momentum is a powerful tool. Once on a solid six-fight win streak, Ferreira (18-5, 9-5 UFC) has since dropped three of four and now stares down his 40th birthday at the beginning of next year. Eight years younger and with his own 16-fight victorious stretch in tow, Rebecki (19-1, 3-0 UFC) has it going for him. Whether the torch is passed or the older man can get it done, referee Gary Copeland will keep tabs on the lightweight contest. The sportsmen gladly bump their fists together in eager anticipation of inflicting bodily harm on one another. Rebecki surges forward immediately, throwing caution to the wind swinging fists. Ferreira stays composed and prods out with front kicks, and he dips away from the power shots that fly past him. Rebecki continues attacking relentlessly, and he knocks Ferreira to his seat momentarily courtesy of fierce right hand. The Brazilian jumps right back up, and he keeps Rebecki honest with front kicks and a solid body kick. Ferreira lands with a left and a right, and a head kick gets Rebecki’s attention. He throws another high kick, and Rebecki crowds him more. Ferreira sneaks in a left hand as Rebecki walks forward with impunity, only to be met with three flush shots on the jaw. Rebecki strings three punches together, and Ferreira attacks the body with his foot. Ferreira comes up short on a head kick, and Rebecki buzzes his hair with an overhand right. The two take turns blasting one another, and Rebecki gets the better of an exchange with a solid right hand that appears to hurt the Brazilian. Ferreira fires back with bad intentions, and his head kick comes increasingly close to landing cleanly. Rebecki jabs his way into offense, and Ferreira answers them with a heavy body kick that makes Rebecki shake his head. Rebecki leans forward and when he attacks, his head smacks into Ferreira’s. Ferreira wipes his head, and Copeland notes the head clash. Rebecki unloads a left hand that knocks Ferreira clean off his feet, and he dives down into the guard in hopes of finishing the job. Rebecki gets slowed down by the active guard of his opponent, and he cannot pass guard or land much of note while Ferreira clears his head. The round ends with Rebecki on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters tap hands together to open the round, and Rebecki says hello with a body kick and a powerful left hand. Ferreira drops to the mat, and he bounces back up and stings Rebecki with a left hook of his own. The Polish fighter has a foot bounce off the cup when kicking, and he apologizes as Ferreira signals he is ok. Rebecki ducks a right hand and shoots with a double, driving through the hips and putting Ferreira on his back. Ferreira hits the mat and threatens with a triangle choke, and his legs allow him to sweep and throw Rebecki off of him. Rebecki loads up on a big left hand that misses the mark, and Ferreira follows him with three punches up top while Rebecki’s eyes are swelling up fast. Ferreira jabs and absorbs a left hand on the nose that makes him tweak it to check if it is damaged. Rebecki lurches forward with a series of rangy punches, and he gets backed off as a high kick whizzes past his head. Rebecki bulldozes forward in pursuit of a takedown, and he manages to put the Brazilian on his seat for a moment. Ferreira climbs back up and works his jab, and he slips the most dangerous blows coming at him so that he can counter with three of his own. Ferreira flicks out jabs and a head kick, and he backs the Polish fighter off with body shots chained into punches in the head. The jab has split open the side of Rebecki’s eye, and Ferreira releases a number of punches to the swelling and bloody face. Copeland calls time and brings in the doctor, and Rebecki is cleared quickly and gets back to it. Ferreira drills his man in the head with a combination of punches ending with a head kick, and Rebecki catches it and tackles Ferriera to the floor. Ferreira scrambles to work his way up, and he turns the tables and drags Rebecki down from behind. The Brazilian climbs into full mount and he sits down on an arm-triangle choke, but time expires before he can get the tap.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 3
The lightweights touch ‘em up to begin, and Ferreira leads the dance with a few punches up top and a front kick. Rebecki swings back, and Ferreira is the fresher and more accurate man of the two as he lands cleaner. Ferreira looks for his jab and kicks the body, and he checks Rebecki’s chin with a one-two. Ferreira powers ahead with another short combo, and he lines up several head kicks that get blocked but have an impact. Rebecki loads up on a left hand, and Ferreira stands firm and lets him have it with a swarm of punches that stagger him. Rebecki takes a breath and kicks the lead leg, and he gets driven back with a straight right hand. Ferreira times Rebecki ducking down for a level change with an uppercut, and he chews up the midsection with power shots. Ferreira walks through power punches from the Polish fighter, and he gets taken down and turns the corner to stand back up. Ferreira goes after Rebecki’s leg to sweep him and turn him over, and he finds his way on top and slides straight into mount. Ferreira bombards Rebecki with punches and elbows, and Rebecki twists and turns in any effort to escape. Ferreira sits on him awkwardly and works Rebecki over with his fists, until Rebecki muscles his way to his knees. Ferreira drags his man down and moves back to mount, and he gets going with a number of elbows as Copeland is watching closely. Copeland asks for Rebecki to fight back, and Rebecki sits up to protect himself from further damage. Rebecki somehow slides out the back door, and both men get back to their feet with a little under a minute to go. Ferreira jabs the body with a kick, and he continues to aim strikes to the midsection. Ferreira knocks Rebecki to the wall with a one-two, and he shoots for an easy takedown and throws Rebecki to the mat so he can hop into mount.
Ferreira postures up and drills Rebecki with punches and hammerfists. Ferreira keeps striking, sensing the finish might be right around the corner, and Copeland waves the fight off to save Rebecki from any further harm.
The Polish fighter’s long win streak is now a thing of the past, and the shellacking from “CDF” has made him nearly unrecognizable. This is a mighty comeback performance for the 39-year-old, who survived a tough first round and put away a man that came into this bout the winner of his last 16.

The Official Result
Diego Ferreira def. Mateusz Rebecki R3 4:51 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 5, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, citing his relentless grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Rębecki marches forward, throws heavy punches, and dives at legs for takedowns. He acknowledges Diego Ferreira's BJJ and power but believes Rębecki is durable enough to eat a big shot and impose his wrestling. He expects the line to move further in Rębecki's favor.

"I got to go matal rebecky all day long all day long very confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki to break down Carlos Diego Ferreira and finish him in the third round by knockout. He notes that Ferreira is 39 years old and past his prime, while Rębecki is well-rounded with good striking, power, wrestling, and submission game. He struggles to see a path to victory for Ferreira, as Rębecki can dictate where the fight takes place and has vicious striking.

"give me recki to win this fight by third round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, highlighting his youth, wrestling, and well-rounded game. He notes that Ferreira has a clear path to victory for opponents: wrestle him, tire him out, and avoid submissions. Cody points out that Ferreira has lost to wrestlers like Gamrot, Gillespie, and Dariush, and at 39 with a layoff, he is vulnerable. Rębecki is a strong Polish grappler who should follow the same blueprint. Cody also mentions that Rębecki's record is not fraudulent, as he has beaten quality opponents on the regional scene.

"rebecky minus 400 as it continues to grow you're going to run into some banana peel pricing but yeah no he's the pick"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 9, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki, calling it an honorable passing of the torch. He respects Ferreira but believes Rębecki is a legitimate prospect who deserves the top 15 spot. He notes that Rębecki's only criticism came from his UFC debut where he dominated but had one moment of adversity, which he thinks is overblown.

"This is going to be an honorable passing of the torch."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The host confidently picks Rębecki due to his pressure, pace, and grappling, expecting him to overwhelm the 39-year-old Ferreira. He notes Ferreira's power and BJJ but believes Rębecki's youth and strength will be decisive. He predicts a decision win for Rębecki, as Ferreira should show enough resistance to avoid a finish. The pick is confident, though he acknowledges this is Rębecki's toughest test.

"I'm going to go roesy and roesy by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, agreeing with Cody that Ferreira's losses have come against top-tier wrestlers. He notes that Ferreira is a tough test but Rębecki is a finished product ready to contend. Paul mentions that Rębecki is a BJJ black belt and should be able to handle Ferreira's ground game. He expects Rębecki to win but notes the line is accurate with little value.

"I expect rebecky to win on Saturday night"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 7, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The MMA Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki over Carlos Diego Ferreira, calling Rębecki a 'tank' and 'Bruiser.' He highlights Rębecki's wrestling and ability to ragdoll opponents, referencing his win over Loik Radzhabov. He acknowledges Ferreira is a tricky test but believes Rębecki is a class above as a prospect.

"I'm going with my man matus rebecky... he wins this one."
Submission (armbar) R1 3:08 · UFC 295: Prochazka vs. Pereira · Nov 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 10 of 16 62% 28 of 38 2 of 2 100% 1 0 2:14
Roosevelt Roberts 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 10 of 16 62% 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 9 0 of 0 7 of 7
Roosevelt Roberts 2 of 7 28% 1 of 5 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mateusz Rebecki vs. Roosevelt Roberts (158: Missed Weight)
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Roberts (+500)

Round 1
Originally expecting he would come to blows with Tajikistan’s Nurullo Aliev, on ultra-late notice, Rebecki (18-1, 2-0 UFC) will instead welcome Roberts (12-3, 1 NC; 4-3, 1 NC UFC) back to the Octagon. The eight-fight vet left the organization in 2021 after getting posterized by Ignacio Bahamondes, and two wins on the regional circuit plus an appearance on the 31st season of “The Ultimate Fighter” led to “The Predator”—no not that one—getting a return ticket to the UFC. Unfortunately for Roberts, his second chance at a first impression will start off rough, as he could not reach the lightweight limit, coming in two pounds heavy and losing a hefty chunk of his purse. The two will proceed with referee Mike Beltran as their third, and the combatants happily exchange a fist bump. Roberts measures a right hand, and he just misses Rebecki. Rebecki rips a few kicks down low, and he comes up short with big swinging fists. Roberts backs off, looking for a knee to counter, and Rebecki follows him and secures a double-leg takedown to put Roberts on the mat. Rebecki slashes down with an elbow on the forehead, and he maintains position while landing some sporadic ground-and-pound. Rebecki grinds down with his elbow, frustrating the taller fighter, until Roberts kicks his feet in pursuit of a sweep. This backfires for him, as Rebecki takes side control in a hurry. Roberts is able to power his way back up through sheer muscle, and Rebecki drags him down to his face from behind. As Roberts recovers, Rebecki slithers around to take the back and get both hooks in. Rebecki smacks Roberts on the sides of his head, softening his man up until Roberts times an explosion to turn around and stand up.
Before he gets all the way up, Rebecki snares him in an armbar, and “The Predator” has just become the prey. Roberts tries to roll through to defend against the submission, but this places him in even greater danger. Rebecki continues to torque the arm with all his might, and Roberts screams out before his arm breaks and his tendons snap.
Beltran is immediately on the action to make sure nothing goes awry, but Rebecki releases the grip as soon as he hears the verbal submission. The Polish fighter is in all smiles when he stands back up, and he calls for the UFC to hold an event in Poland soon.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Roosevelt Roberts R1 3:08 via Submission (Armbar)
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, calling him a 'finished product' with excellent grappling and power. He thinks Roberts is outclassed everywhere and that Rębecki will maul him. He notes the line is high but believes Rębecki is the goods.

"rebecky minus 650 is insane but guy's the goods he's he's going to be a problem"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, comparing him to grinders like Nick Lentz and Jon Fitch. He notes Rębecki's suffocating pressure and technique, and that Roberts is a short-notice replacement with a puncher's chance only. He expects Rębecki to dominate wherever the fight goes.

"rebecky is going to be a problem for most of these guys until he starts cracking into the top 15"
TKO (punch) R2 2:36 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 2 54 of 95 56% 64 of 110 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:57
Loik Radzhabov 0 19 of 54 35% 19 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 28 of 54 51% 35 of 64 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:53
Loik Radzhabov 0 10 of 30 33% 10 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
2 Mateusz Rębecki 2 26 of 41 63% 29 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
Loik Radzhabov 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 54 of 95 56% 24 of 58 12 of 17 18 of 20 54 of 95 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 19 of 54 35% 16 of 50 3 of 4 0 of 0 19 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 28 of 54 51% 13 of 33 8 of 13 7 of 8 28 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 10 of 30 33% 7 of 26 3 of 4 0 of 0 10 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 26 of 41 63% 11 of 25 4 of 4 11 of 12 26 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
Loik Radzhabov 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Loik Radzhabov (157.25: Missed Weight) vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-155), Radzhabov (+135)

Round 1
A classic battle of Poland vs. Tajikistan is about to play out in a match that was initially scheduled at lightweight. Both looking to make their sophomore appearance a positive one, “Chinczyk” Rebecki (17-1, 1-0 UFC) will battle it out with the heavy PFL export Radzhabov (17-4-1, 1-0 UFC). The third man in the Octagon for this de facto 158-pound catchweight contest will be referee James Larry Folsom, and the fighters still touch gloves despite the weight discrepancy. Rebecki moves into striking range, backing his foe off and not worried about a big punch aimed at his direction. Rebecki loads up on a body kick, and he walks into a looping right hand. Rebecki rushes at his man with a pair of punches, and Radzhabov bounces off the fence and absorbs a pair of big leg kicks. Radzhabov gets a head of steam and aims a right hand and a body kick back. Rebecki continues to hammer the lead wheel, and he punches Radzhabov square in the face as Radzhabov tries to duck. Rebecki scoots back from a right hand and hammers the inside calf with a kick. Radzhabov swings his way into a body lock takedown attempt, and Rebecki breaks out of the clinch and kicks the ribcage. Radzhabov races forward to sling punches, and Rebecki takes them and goes back to crowding Radzhabov against the wall. Rebecki pins Radzhabov back and pops him with a left hook and a few jabs, and he suddenly changes levels to snatch up a double. Radzhabov falls to his back and grabs hold of a guillotine choke, and Rebecki pops his head out as he steps into an advantageous position with Radzhabov’s legs trapped between his own. Rebecki slugs Radzhabov in the chops with a right hand in his partial mount position, as he could shimmy up to sit on Radzhabov’s hips. Instead, Rebecki hops out of it to the side, so he can elbow Radzhabov on the dome. The fighter from Tajikistan scrambles to his knees and forces his way back to his feet, and he launches a big leg kick. Rebecki lunges forward with a fiery right hand, and he blasts Radzhabov with a leg kick that separates Radzhabov from his balance. Rebecki jumps on top of a fallen Radzhabov and locks up a crucifix position in a hurry with 20 seconds to go. Rebecki sets up a straight armlock from his angle, and he lets it go to hold Radzhabov down until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting right back to it, and Radzhabov starts by slugging it out. Rebecki nails him with a kick, and Radzhabov is barely able to stand up. Radzhabov wobbles back to the fence to let it help keep him upright, and Rebecki attacks it relentlessly. Rebecki measures his punches as Radzhabov is up against the wall, and he does not get reckless as Radzhabov is throwing big counters back his way. Radzhabov scores a leg hand, an elbow and another few punches. Rebecki measures his man and drives home several more low kicks to both legs, and Radzhabov cannot stand up and drops to his knees. Through sheer force of will, Radzhabov stands back up, and he entices Rebecki into a mad brawl. Rebecki obliges and busts Radzhabov in the chops, and he swings low kicks that make Radzhabov react physically every time. Even when Radzhabov lifts his leg up, the shin slams into it and makes him wince.
Radzhabov takes a hard look at the clock, which says 2:45 left in the round, and Rebecki is stalking him with accurate, dangerous blows. Rebecki decks Radzhabov with a massive left hand, and Radzhabov crashes to the ground.
Folsom immediately leaps in between them to call a halt to the contest, giving fans their first finish of the night in what some might consider a mercy stoppage. Rebecki limps away, having suffered some serious damage to his foot from the hellacious kicks, and he successfully pushes his impressive win streak to 15 straight.

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Loik Radzhabov R2 2:36 via TKO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo gives a slight lean to Mateusz Rębecki, thinking his wrestling and striking are a little better. He expects a banger and says the odds are perfect with Rębecki as a slight favorite. He has no bet on this fight and plans to just watch.

"I do think these odds are perfect with Rebecca as just the slight favorite here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Loik Radzhabov

Big Brady picks the underdog Loik Radzhabov, citing his wrestling ability and tougher competition. He notes that Rębecki's win over Nick Fiore aged poorly after Chase Hooper beat him. He has concerns about Radzhabov's cardio but thinks he can implement takedowns early. He predicts a close, competitive split decision.

"I'm gonna take the dog here and look rajabov but this is gonna be a close fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, noting his better cardio and wrestling. He thinks Radzhabov will gas and Rębecki can take over. He considers live betting if Radzhabov wins the first round.

Live betting considered.
"I think Rebecca's got that cardio Advantage I think he's in better shape."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Connor initially leaned toward Radzhabov because he sees more depth in his takedown game, but after discussion he switches to Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. Connor thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. He also points out that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming.

"I'm leaning for the pole. I'm leaning for Ribesky."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Levi picks Mateusz Rębecki, arguing that the market overreacted to his decision win over Fiore. He thinks Rębecki dominated that fight and gassed from beating his opponent, not from poor cardio. He sees Rębecki as more physical and believes he will overwhelm Radzhabov. He thinks there is value at -145 and plans to bet.

Plans to bet Rębecki at -145 or -150.
"I'm on rambesky here and I will move in at some point soon"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The host picks Mateusz Rębecki to win by decision. He believes Rębecki's size and strength will be too much for Radzhabov to get his takedowns, and that Rębecki will get the better positions on top and land more significant damage. He notes both fighters have cardio issues but expects Rębecki to edge out a grappling-heavy decision.

"give me the Polish fighter here to get his hand raised by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul picks Rębecki, citing his wrestling advantage and cardio. He notes Radzhabov's tendency to gas and thinks Rębecki can out-grapple him. He expects a decision win.

"I'll side with the with with machus Rebecca to be able to get those positions."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

The Guru picks Mateusz Rębecki, noting that Loik Radzhabov struggled against Esteban Ribovics, who stuffed takedowns and showed more potential. He believes Rębecki is a shorter, stockier, great grappler who can stuff takedowns and be a wrecking machine. He predicts Rębecki will get a KO at the end of round one or two after pressuring Radzhabov backwards.

Predicts KO in round 1 or 2.
"I'm gonna go with matteus rebecci... I can actually see him getting a KO at the end of round one or the end of round two"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Zane initially leaned toward Rębecki because he thinks Rębecki is a better boxer with more creativity, able to throw left hands and body punches, while Radzhabov is limited to timing the right hand. After discussion, he agrees with Connor that Rębecki's bullishness and ability to tank damage and keep slinging hard shots gives him the edge. Zane also notes that Radzhabov's confidence crumples when things go south, while Rębecki keeps coming. He thinks both fighters are similar wrestle-boxers who gas after one round, but Rębecki's creativity in striking makes the difference.

"I think they're going to end up stuck on their feet against each other. And Roger Bob can, he can land hard. And he's not, you know, he's not without power. But if he has to stay standing, he's just …"
WIN vs Nick Fiore
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Strickland vs. Imavov · Jan 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 0 89 of 171 52% 130 of 228 3 of 4 75% 0 0 8:27
Nick Fiore 0 34 of 93 36% 52 of 113 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 54 of 101 53% 59 of 107 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:32
Nick Fiore 0 20 of 53 37% 23 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 49 46% 42 of 76 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Nick Fiore 0 11 of 31 35% 19 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
3 Mateusz Rębecki 0 12 of 21 57% 29 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Nick Fiore 0 3 of 9 33% 10 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 89 of 171 52% 53 of 125 27 of 37 9 of 9 63 of 138 4 of 10 22 of 23
Nick Fiore 34 of 93 36% 25 of 76 7 of 13 2 of 4 28 of 83 5 of 9 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 54 of 101 53% 32 of 73 17 of 23 5 of 5 43 of 85 2 of 6 9 of 10
Nick Fiore 20 of 53 37% 14 of 42 5 of 8 1 of 3 17 of 47 3 of 6 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 49 46% 12 of 35 8 of 11 3 of 3 17 of 42 0 of 1 6 of 6
Nick Fiore 11 of 31 35% 8 of 26 2 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 27 2 of 3 1 of 1
3 Mateusz Rębecki 12 of 21 57% 9 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 11 2 of 3 7 of 7
Nick Fiore 3 of 9 33% 3 of 8 0 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nick Fiore vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Rebecki (-700), Fiore (+510)

Round 1
It is extremely rare to have such lopsided betting odds when two UFC newcomers are pitted against one another, but here we are. Poland’s Rebecki (16-1, 0-0 UFC) is anywhere from the low -700 range to above -800 in his first UFC appearance, as he will be squaring off against late replacement and substantial +570ish underdog Fiore (6-0, 0-0 UFC). Fiore steps in for the injured Omar Morales, and betting confidence is low in him – likely due in part to a strength of schedule that includes not one but two wins over the notorious Jay Ellis. It’s the fight game, anything can happen and these two lightweights know it. Overseen by referee Kerry Hatley, the two men looking to make a violent statement bump fists to seal the cage around them. Rebecki instantly releases a body kick, and he comes out aggressive to kick low and follow it with a right hand. When Fiore tries to crowd him, Rebecki fires off a kick to the chest, and Fiore responds with a right hand. Rebecki clubs him with a pair of fastballs, and Fiore bounces off the cage wall to reset. The Polish fighter chops down the lead calf as he pushes forward, and he wings three straight left hands to the head and body. Rebecki rips the body with a kick, and a one-two plants right on the New Hampshire native’s chin. Fiore connects with a right hand to open up some swelling on Rebecki’s left eye, but he ignores it and keeps throwing caution to the wind. Rebecki punishes his foe with a long string of punches, and he keeps one-twos landing one after the other. Fiore’s left eye is marked up as well, and he counters his charging opponent with an elbow. Rebecki digs punches to the body, and Fiore fires back with a vengeance but gets his legs kicked hard. Rebecki slams a left hand to the body, and Fiore spins all the way around and retreats. “Chinczyk” gives chase with a flying knee, and he walks through strikes from Fiore to load up on his own power blows. Fiore shakes off two punches to the side of the head, and Rebecki unloads with rights and lefts to the ribcage. Fiore wears it all well without his knees buckling, and Rebecki suddenly blitzes him to tackle him over with a double-leg takedown. Fiore throws his legs up quickly for a possible triangle setup, or something to slow the wild Rebecki down. Fiore ties his man up in the guard, and Rebecki pushes off and drives down elbows with pure power. The Polish fighter tears open a serious cut above the left eyebrow of his opponent with his elbows, and Fiore wraps Rebecki up to make it to the bell, likely blowing up any betting line of the match ending in Round 1 – barring doctor intervention regarding that cut.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
The two lightweights reach Round 2, and Rebecki is no less aggressive to start things off. Rebecki pounds the body with a kick, and he swings and misses with a wide uppercut. Fiore stands back and trades blows with his reckless adversary, but the body work from Rebecki is not matched. Fiore catches a charging Rebecki with a vertical elbow, and this makes Rebecki changes levels for a takedown. The attempt fails, and Rebecki appears to be visibly slowing as Fiore backpedals. Fiore tags his man with a one-two, and he grabs hold of a double and nearly takes Rebecki for a ride. Fiore drags his opponent to the mat, and he steps into full mount briefly while Rebecki scrambles. The two slide around and work their way back to their feet before anyone claims position, and Rebecki slams his fists in Fiore’s face. Fiore takes them flush and gets his lead leg kicked out, and this draws a grimace. Rebecki bull-rushes forward to secure a double and plant Fiore on his back, and he takes a deep breath when landing. Not wanting the referee to get involved, Rebecki stays busy enough with ground-and-pound, all while Fiore clings to him to force a standup. Rebecki methodically works Fiore over with punches, and the New Hampshire native keeps his guard closed even while absorbing punishment. Rebecki continues his slow but steady drubbing of his grounded foe, and the horn sounds to end the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 3
The final frame begins with a glove touch, and Rebecki appears briefly energized although he walks into a few power punches and a front kick. Fiore advances first to go after a takedown, and Rebecki throws him down and backs off. Rebecki swipes with a right hand over the top and slams his shin on the inside of Fiore’s lead leg, and Fiore shakes his leg and backs off. Rebecki follows him all the way from one side of the cage to the other courtesy of a double, and he plops Fiore on the mat to pick up where he left off in the second round. Fiore once more closes up his guard, with no signs of standing or scrambling or moving in any fashion to recover. Rebecki does not mind, as he can go at his own pace, dropping down punches and keeping Hatley from making them get up. Rebecki thumps down an elbow and looks for a guard pass, but Fiore keeps him in this posture. Rebecki has activated the grind-embracing mode, and he has no interest in changing his pace or doing more on his end. Fiore briefly flirts with a high guard, but Rebecki shucks it off and returns to his control that has devolved into something more akin to lay-and-pray. The time ticks away while Rebecki holds on from on top, and with 30 seconds to spare, Fiore looks to implement a butterfly guard. There is nothing to it, as Rebecki holds on to the final bell, thereby taking Fiore to the scorecards for the first time in the latter's career.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Nick Fiore via Unanimous Decision (30-26, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Angelo is confident in Rębecki, calling him close to a lock. He cites Rębecki's relentless grappling, power, and experience against a short-notice debutant. He notes Fiore's BJJ black belt but thinks Rębecki's wrestling and pressure will be too much. He considers the -750 odds too rich for a bet but appropriate.

"I think Rebecca's close to a lock in this fight just given Styles short notice match up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Big Brady picks Mateusz Rębecki confidently, calling him a prospect to watch. He notes Rębecki's strong wrestling and grappling, and power on the feet. He sees Fiore as untested with limited tape, and believes Rębecki will finish him early, likely by knockout in the first round. He also mentions submission as a possibility but leans toward a knockout.

Rębecki by first round knockout
"I gotta go with robekski I'll take him to win by by first round finish honestly I think could be a potential knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Cody picks Rębecki, emphasizing his strength, wrestling, and experience against quality opponents. He notes Fiore's BJJ black belt but doubts he can handle Rębecki's physicality. He expects Rębecki to smash and repeat takedowns.

"Rebecca is UFC ready... he's battle tested already he's not learning on the job"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Jacob agrees Rębecki should win, noting Fiore's weak competition. He mentions Fiore's first two wins were against the same journeyman. He thinks Rębecki's grappling is superior but suggests a sprinkle on a weird submission due to Fiore's BJJ. He sees Rębecki as a safe play.

Mentions round 1 submission at +2500 as a Hail Mary sprinkle
"Rebecca is a much better fighter than anything Nick's ever seen"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Paul is very confident in Rębecki, calling him a powerhouse with excellent wrestling and durability. He notes Rębecki's battle-tested resume and believes he will dominate Fiore, who has fought low-level competition. He parlayed Rębecki with Ige and Umar.

Parlayed with Ige and Umar at +167; over 2 takedowns on PrizePicks
"Rebecca looks like uh like an absolute Powerhouse he should absolutely roll here"
Myktybek Orolbai - Fight History
WIN vs Chris Curtis
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Emmett vs. Vallejos · Mar 14, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chris Curtis 0 12 of 31 38% 57 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 20 of 28 71% 83 of 102 19 of 24 79% 0 0 12:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chris Curtis 0 2 of 10 20% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 16 of 21 76% 49 of 65 7 of 8 87% 0 0 4:02
2 Chris Curtis 0 6 of 13 46% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 3 66% 25 of 26 7 of 9 77% 0 0 4:13
3 Chris Curtis 0 4 of 8 50% 25 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 5 of 7 71% 0 0 4:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chris Curtis 12 of 31 38% 6 of 25 6 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 28 2 of 2 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 20 of 28 71% 13 of 18 3 of 4 4 of 6 5 of 10 1 of 1 14 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chris Curtis 2 of 10 20% 1 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 16 of 21 76% 13 of 16 2 of 2 1 of 3 3 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 16
2 Chris Curtis 6 of 13 46% 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 3 66% 0 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1
3 Chris Curtis 4 of 8 50% 1 of 5 3 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo confidently picks Myktybek Orolbai, believing his relentless wrestling and pressure will be too much for Chris Curtis. He notes that Curtis had the highest takedown defense in middleweight but was taken down easily by Brendan Allen, and expects Orolbai to do the same. He thinks Orolbai will cruise to a decision win.

"I don't see Chris Curtis winning this fight. ... Motorbec's going to be the pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision. He is concerned about Chris Curtis's age (38), layoff, and recent close fight with Max Griffin. He believes Orolbai is younger, hits harder, has wrestling upside, and is durable. He thinks Curtis's takedown defense, while good, hasn't been tested by wrestlers like Orolbai.

"I'm definitely going to My Titty Back here. I'm going to take My Titty Back to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Chris Curtis

Cody leans Curtis as a dog, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Orolbai's clunky technique and hittability. He thinks Curtis can outpoint him or catch him, but acknowledges Curtis is 39 and declining.

"I think I'm going to take a small little shot down the action man for old time sake."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get distracted in fights, especially as he ages. He notes that Orolbai's relentless pressure could frustrate Curtis, leading to him arguing with the ref instead of fighting. He also mentions that Curtis has a history of finding ways to lose.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I think he is very clearly losing focus as he gets older and finding little distractions to get mad about in fights. ... And when a fighter gets to that point, unless they're in a really generous matchup, I just …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

James picks Myktybek Orolbai to win by decision, citing his volume, grappling upside, and the fact that Curtis often underperforms. He notes Curtis is a better striker but may be outworked and taken down. He calls it a strange fight and a potential stayaway for betting.

"I'm going to pick Oro to win the fight via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 10, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host picks Orolbai to win by decision but is hesitant due to the high price. He expects Orolbai's aggression and output to overwhelm Curtis, but acknowledges Curtis is the better striker and could land a knockout. He notes that Orolbai's grappling may not be as effective against Curtis's defensive grappling, so the fight likely stays standing where Orolbai's pressure could edge him rounds. He suggests a hedge on Curtis by KO in round 3.

Curtis round 3 KO hedge
"I think Oro still gets the win here. I think he wins by decision. But I would think twice about this level of chalk against a veteran like Chris Curtis."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his size, power, and youth. He notes Curtis' age and recent split decisions. He thinks Orolbai can bully Curtis and get a finish or decision.

"Oro by a minus 285 favorite to come back on. Your boy the action man plus 245."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 14, 2026 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his lightweight-level skills and toughness. He notes that Curtis struggled against Jack Hermansson, who Orolbai destroyed, and that Curtis's move to welterweight may not help. He predicts a TKO win for Orolbai.

Prediction: TKO
"I think Myktybek Orolbai is going to handle Chris Curtis... by TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 13, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Chris Curtis

Zane picks Chris Curtis despite being burned by him before. He believes Orolbai's unhampered aggression and lack of management tools will play into Curtis's counterpunching style. He notes Curtis's defensive wrestling and ability to catch Orolbai coming in, but acknowledges Curtis's tendency to lose focus and get frustrated.

Orolbai opened at -250, currently -265; Curtis opened at +210, currently +225
"I'll, I'll take Chris Curtis here. I just think a Ralby's unhampered aggression and complete lack of like management tools around that."
KO R1 2:46 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Hermansson 0 19 of 38 50% 19 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 1 15 of 33 45% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Hermansson 19 of 38 50% 9 of 25 5 of 8 5 of 5 17 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 15 of 33 45% 9 of 25 3 of 5 3 of 3 13 of 31 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, calling it a life savings on the caveman. He describes Orolbai as a fun grappler with non-stop pressure, cardio, and power, while Hermansson is an aging welterweight moving down in weight, which weakens his chin and cardio. Orolbai's game plan is simple: takedown, smash, win.

"Moto Beck wins this fight. A 37-year-old welterweight Jack Herman Manson is not winning this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (Mairbek Tukhugov) by first-round knockout, citing Hermansson's recent brutal KO loss and quick turnaround. He questions Hermansson's chin and weight cut to welterweight, expecting Orolbai to land a big shot and finish him early.

first round knockout
"Give me Mairbek to win. Mairbek to win by first round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Cody picks Jack Hermansson confidently, pending weight cut. He notes that Orolbai is one-dimensional, a weight bully who relies on takedowns but has poor striking defense. Jack has a reach advantage, excellent wrestling, and BJJ. Cody believes Jack can stuff takedowns and outwork Orolbai, who gasses and gets hit a lot.

"I got Jack Manson as well, but pending that he makes the weight and he looks good on the scales."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, citing his physicality and grinding style as a problem for Hermansson. He notes that Hermansson is making a drastic weight cut to welterweight, which often fails at this career stage. Connor acknowledges Hermansson's win over Joe Pyfer but sees Orolbai's natural size and aggression as decisive.

Orolbai by decision or late finish
"I think I'll trust my instincts and take a Ralby. He's basically been fighting as a welterweight already."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Lucrative James picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing the weight class advantage (Orolbai moving up from 155, Hermansson cutting from 185). He believes Orolbai has better striking power, durability, and grappling. He notes Hermansson's recent KO loss and questionable chin. He predicts Orolbai will win, possibly by knockout.

"I'm going to take Mick Tbec or buy for this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is a pressure grappler with solid cardio and finishing ability. Hermansson is dropping to welterweight at 37, with durability concerns and a long layoff. Orolbai should overwhelm Hermansson and finish him via TKO or submission.

Orolbai inside the distance
"I'm going to go MTAC Oro by inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Paul picks Jack Hermansson, noting that Orolbai is moving up to welterweight and has struggled with bigger opponents. Jack is a natural welterweight with good wrestling and submission skills. Paul believes Jack's experience and size will be too much for Orolbai, who has poor cardio and striking defense.

"I like if Jack looks good on the scales on Friday, Cody, I'm gonna have a tough time not pulling the trigger on Jack at like plus 200."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai over Jack Hermansson, believing Orolbai's speed and technique will overcome Hermansson's size. He notes Hermansson's KO loss and weight cut to welterweight. He trusts Orolbai's grappling defense and offensive submissions, predicting a win.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai beating Jack Hermansson."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Jack Hermansson

Zane picks Hermansson, betting that his size and strength at welterweight will be enough to control Orolbai. He notes that Orolbai's success depends on physicality, and if Hermansson is too strong, Orolbai's one-dimensional pressure will fail. Zane admits it's a risky pick given Hermansson's recent losses.

Hermansson by decision; weight cut could be a factor
"I'm gonna take the flyer on her Manson just being big enough to control this fight and kind of you know, survive a mess."
WIN vs Tofiq Musayev
Submission R1 4:35 · UFC on ABC: Hill vs. Rountree Jr. · Jun 21, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tofiq Musayev 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 7 28% 15 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tofiq Musayev 0 2 of 6 33% 17 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Myktybek Orolbai 0 2 of 7 28% 15 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tofiq Musayev 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tofiq Musayev 2 of 6 33% 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 2 of 7 28% 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his wrestling and toughness. He notes that Orolbai has shown he can win fights and has a good chin. He is concerned about Tofiq's two-year layoff and questions whether he is truly prepared. He thinks Orolbai's takedowns will be the difference and that $8,500 is a discount.

Calls $8,500 the discount of the century; expects takedowns and control.
"I'm going to pick Oroy. I think $8,500 is the discount of the century."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 18, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Myktybek Orolbai (referred to as 'my tittyback') to grind out a decision. He notes Orolbai is very durable, has good cardio, and is relentless with wrestling and grappling. He is concerned about Musayev's striking power but thinks Orolbai's toughness and ability to get takedowns will be key. Brady expects a close, greasy war and predicts Orolbai by decision.

fight of the night potential, decision
"I'm going to take my titty back to mix in the takedowns and uh grind out a decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that Musayev's potshotting style and reliance on wrestling as a backup won't hold up against Orolbai's relentless pace. He notes that Orolbai's losses to Rębecki and Brenner came against fighters who set or accepted a high pace, and that Musayev hasn't faced that kind of pressure. He believes Orolbai's physicality and ability to force exchanges will overwhelm Musayev.

"I have to pick Ralby just based off that, like the technical aspects, Musayev might be a more technical fighter everywhere than Ralby. Yeah, it really might be, but I have to trust that the pace is going to be …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The host notes Musayev is a solid power puncher but has sketchy takedown defense and defensive grappling. He expects Orolbai to eat some big shots but push through, land takedowns, possibly get a submission, but ultimately grind out a decision win.

"Mousv is a solid power puncher, but he has some very sketchy takedown defense and defensive grappling. And that's where I fully expect Oral Bay to expose Mousv. Look for Oro to eat a few big shots, but push through …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, praising his footwork and straight punches. He contrasts Orolbai's modern fight game with Tofiq Musayev's inferior footwork. He notes Orolbai's durability against Rebecki and expects him to take over in later rounds, predicting a 29-28 decision.

Orolbai wins by decision 29-28
"I'm thinking that my Takabor is going to have a good performance here. We may see to think Messiah take a first round and I think we're going to see Meko or take the second and third. So I'm going …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai, citing the pace advantage that UFC-level fighters have over regional standouts. He notes that Musayev has not been tested by a high-pace fighter who constantly makes the fight happen, and that Orolbai's pressure and wrestling will be difficult for Musayev to handle. He acknowledges Musayev's technical edge but believes the pace will be the deciding factor.

"I kind of feel like I just have to pick oral by offhand here. Yeah, it really comes down to the idea of is Musaev such a special athlete that oral by can't can just just can't handle the shots …"
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 308: Topuria vs. Holloway · Oct 26, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mateusz Rębecki 1 71 of 146 48% 93 of 174 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:24
Myktybek Orolbai 0 61 of 135 45% 85 of 162 2 of 5 40% 0 1 2:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mateusz Rębecki 0 27 of 57 47% 27 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Myktybek Orolbai 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mateusz Rębecki 0 23 of 55 41% 24 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
Myktybek Orolbai 0 25 of 57 43% 28 of 61 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:44
3 Mateusz Rębecki 1 21 of 34 61% 42 of 61 3 of 3 100% 0 0 2:09
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 35 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 1 1:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mateusz Rębecki 71 of 146 48% 52 of 123 10 of 11 9 of 12 54 of 126 5 of 6 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 61 of 135 45% 46 of 114 6 of 11 9 of 10 60 of 133 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mateusz Rębecki 27 of 57 47% 15 of 43 7 of 7 5 of 7 26 of 56 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 22 of 51 43% 13 of 39 2 of 4 7 of 8 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mateusz Rębecki 23 of 55 41% 17 of 47 3 of 4 3 of 4 22 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Myktybek Orolbai 25 of 57 43% 19 of 50 4 of 5 2 of 2 25 of 56 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Mateusz Rębecki 21 of 34 61% 20 of 33 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 16 3 of 4 12 of 14
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Myktybek Orolbai vs. Mateusz Rebecki
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cerqueira (-112), Aslan (-108)

Round 1
Another victim of a weigh-in day switcheroo, the two lightweights in Rebecki (19-2, 3-1 UFC) and Orolbai (13-1-1, 2-0 UFC) now find themselves competing at a 160-pound catchweight. It is currently unclear which man struggled to make weight properly—or it could be both—as they comfortably reached that mark together. Referee Vitor Ribeiro draws the charge for this matchup outside of standard weight divisions, and he checks the fight in as the two men tap their gloves together. Rebecki strides forward ready to throw hands, and he punches his way in and clashes his chest against his opponent’s. Orolbai pushes him back, and gets tagged by a left hand. The sheer momentum of the two make them crash together more than once, and Rebecki is throwing everything he has at his opponent. Rebecki pitches out a left hand that reddens the nose of his adversary, and leg kicks are traded. Orolbai sneaks in a short right, and Rebecki slides to the side and batters his opponent on both sides of the head with power punches. Orolbai pushes out a right hand, and they bang their heads together when coming towards one another. Rebecki punches his way into a clinch, and he escapes before Orolbai can take advantage of it. Rebecki chops at the front leg and spins around, and he loads up on heavy blows that do not make Orolbai budge one inch. Orolbai tosses out a head kick after a one-two, and Rebecki counters with a clubbing left hand. Rebecki’s face begins to turn red from a few absorbed blows back his direction, and he pays it no mind as he loads up on his big left. Orolbai sticks his opponent with a right and gets blasted with a scooping left hand, and it causes immediate damage that swells up his right eye. Orolbai’s eye balloons from the power punches, and Rebecki targets it like a bullseye. Rebecki chops down the front leg, and Orolbai walks him down and just misses with a head kick. A left hand from the Polish fighter opens up the nose, and he gets knocked down from a counter right that might have been from him being off-balance. The horn sounds as Rebecki scrambles back upright to attack again.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki

Round 2
Ribeiro calls in the physician to example Orolbai’s swollen right eye, which has almost completely closed between rounds. Orolbai passes the vision test and is cleared to continue for now. He starts off the round looking for a takedown, hoping to stifle the momentum of Rebecki. The Polish fighter loads up so hard with his left hand that he dislodges his own mouthpiece, and resets it and eats a huge right hand on the jaw. Orolbai connects with a head kick and shoots for a takedown, and the tree stump that is Rebecki stops it in its tracks. Orolbai splits the guard with an uppercut, and he loads up on massive right hands in hopes of hurting Rebecki or opening something up. This allows Rebecki to wrap his hands around the waist and push him against the fence. Orolbai drops down to the floor for a takedown, and although he trips Rebecki up, he cannot ground Rebecki. “Chinczyk” checks Orolbai’s chin with a left hand, and Orolbai has to take a moment to recover from it and absorbs a thunderous left on the busted eye. The beacon of a swollen eye is the perfect place for Rebecki to punch, and Rebecki punches it again and again. Rebecki uses a leg kick to open up a right hook, and he gets caught by a right hand from his opponent but does not budge. Instead, Rebecki surges forward with a wild left hand, and he dips away from an uppercut. Rebecki hammers the front leg with a kick and goes up top with a left, and Orolbai checks a second kick and shoots in for a double. Rebecki uses the fence at his back to stay upright, but a subsequent effort from Orolbai drags him to the ground. Before they hit the canvas, Orolbai appears to crash his head into his opponent’s and a cut on Rebecki’s eye splits open and starts pouring blood. Rebecki wipes at it but keeps swinging with full power, and Orolbai measures him with uppercuts and somehow counters him. Orolbai rolls with the punches and snaps the head to the side with an elbow, and he gets popped with two right hooks and completely shrugs them off. Orolbai connects with a left, absorbs a one-two, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Orolbai

Round 3
With damage on both right eyes, doctors clear them without even needing to check on the fighters’ conditions. Orolbai opens up in the final round with an elbow, aimed at the cut. Rebecki unloads a left hand on the swollen eye socket, and it is miraculous that Orolbai can see out if it. Rebecki blasts his man in the face with a right hand as Orolbai is attacking with an elbow, and a bomb of a second right hand sends Orolbai crashing to the mat. Rebecki pours it on with an onslaught of right hands, smashing Orolbai’s nose to pieces and causing blood to spray across the Octagon. Ribeiro watches on closely but does not intervene, and Rebecki beats Orolbai like a rented mule. Rebecki wrenches Orolbai to the floor, hammering the fighter from Kyrgyzstan but not eliciting referee intervention. Orolbai muscles his way to a knee and his feet, and he continues to take destructive right hands and pursues a single. Rebecki remains on his feet despite Orolbai’s attempts, and he lowers himself to a knee and starts absorbing rights of his own. Rebecki turns the tables on his opponent and dumps him to his backside, climbing into top position while blood covers both men. It comes from both fighters, who leak and cover the mat as well. Through sheer force of will, Orolbai turns his opponent around and pounds on him with left hands and elbows to the body. Orolbai considers an arm-triangle choke but slips off the side due to the massive blood flow. Orolbai sits in half guard as Rebecki clings to his wrist, and Rebecki bursts back to his feet and is pushed to the wall. Orolbai is pushed away, and he drives a one-two on the chin. Rebecki tanks it and eats another power punch, and Orolbai rocks him with a huge right hook. Rebecki is totally spent, and he leans his back to the wall and survives to the bell. What a fantastic bloodbath, one instantly worthy of “Fight of the Night” and plenty of attention from physicians in the next few minutes. Just bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (30-27 Rebecki)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Rebecki (29-28 Rebecki)

The Official Result
Mateusz Rebecki def. Myktybek Orolbai via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

"motto's the pick again super close fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going to take my titty back here to win this fight and I think he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up for the much larger man or lebi"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

"Yeah, that's the thing. I think I could see Robesky having a lot of success early. ... But if he can't ever stop from having to fight it off, yeah, then I, yeah, I think he's going to get tired …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

"M Toc oral by I mean like oralay is the clear pick here I think he wears him down and gets him out of there too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

"I'm going to go with him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

"I'm glad I'm picking him then um if he's the clear pick yeah ori's been very good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Orolbai wins by third-round finish or decision
"I do believe orai has the cardio and scrambling Advantage which should allow him to stay out of too much danger early on in this matchup and then grind this fed out either winning a third round finish or winning …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

"orabi is just a mountain of a man at this Division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki I think he can push more when the going gets tough."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

"I'm inclined to pick him just because I think, I just think he's incredibly focused on making his fight happen. And I think if he gets that fight, even if he's not all that overwhelming at first, it is going …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

"i picked or i'll be but i was really worried going in that he was going to hit a wall"
WIN vs Elves Brener
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 48 of 91 52% 79 of 125 3 of 6 50% 0 2 2:55
Elves Brener 1 65 of 119 54% 83 of 138 5 of 17 29% 0 0 7:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 10 of 19 52% 14 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:30
Elves Brener 0 20 of 35 57% 26 of 41 2 of 4 50% 0 0 3:06
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 21 of 34 61% 33 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Elves Brener 0 28 of 49 57% 35 of 57 2 of 9 22% 0 0 2:56
3 Myktybek Orolbai 0 17 of 38 44% 32 of 55 3 of 5 60% 0 1 2:05
Elves Brener 1 17 of 35 48% 22 of 40 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 48 of 91 52% 24 of 61 7 of 12 17 of 18 35 of 75 2 of 3 11 of 13
Elves Brener 65 of 119 54% 52 of 103 10 of 11 3 of 5 32 of 76 3 of 3 30 of 40
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 10 of 19 52% 6 of 15 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 14 0 of 0 4 of 5
Elves Brener 20 of 35 57% 16 of 29 2 of 3 2 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 12 of 13
2 Myktybek Orolbai 21 of 34 61% 10 of 21 4 of 5 7 of 8 15 of 28 2 of 2 4 of 4
Elves Brener 28 of 49 57% 21 of 41 7 of 7 0 of 1 13 of 25 0 of 0 15 of 24
3 Myktybek Orolbai 17 of 38 44% 8 of 25 2 of 6 7 of 7 14 of 33 0 of 1 3 of 4
Elves Brener 17 of 35 48% 15 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 29 3 of 3 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo is confident in Orolbai, disagreeing with the public narrative that Brener is a good underdog. He views Brener as a grappler despite his knockout wins, and believes Orolbai's relentless wrestling and cardio will overwhelm him. He compares it to Orolbai's win over Uros Medic.

"the elves brener Underdog train officially stops in Brazil"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady is impressed with Orolbai's upside, calling him 'great everywhere' and noting his dominant debut. He acknowledges Brener's toughness and finishing ability but believes Orolbai has more ways to win. He predicts a decision due to both fighters' durability.

"I'm taking Orolbai to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elves Brener

Cody picks Brener as a dog, citing his takedown defense, scrambling, and striking advantage. He notes Orolbai is coming down from 170 and may have weight cut issues, and his wrestling-heavy style may not impress judges. Cody expects Brener to win a close decision or get a finish.

"I'm gonna go with Elvis Brener... brener is live for all those reasons and you add this plus money that looks juicy."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, comparing his wrestling style to Khabib Nurmagomedov. He highlights Orolbai's pressure, takedown entries against the cage, and ability to stick to opponents. He believes Orolbai's suffocating style will be too much for Brener, who may struggle to create separation. He is willing to lay juice on Orolbai due to his dominant attributes.

"this guy oral by has the exact combination of attributes and fight style that I'm actually willing to lay juice on"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai is very dangerous with his relentless grappling approach and better gas tank. He will put Brener through the ringer and finish him in the second or third round. The money line around -250 is acceptable.

money line around -250, finish in second or third round
"I'm going to go with him to win inside the Distance by breaking brener and getting that finish in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, citing his physical strength and takedown ability. He notes Brener has been taken down before and Orolbai's power at lightweight will be a factor. Paul expects Orolbai to get takedowns and control the fight.

"I think he's rightful favorite at minus 250... I think he'll get the takedowns against Elvis whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The MMA Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, expecting him to use his size, strength, and wrestling to control Elves Brener. He notes Orolbai's takedown ability and ground-and-pound, and believes Brener's scrappy style will be neutralized as the fight goes on. He also mentions Orolbai's experience against good opponents and his physical advantages.

"I'm going to go with oral oral by elves Bren is good but I can just see him getting ragged old by this inbred hideous unevolved freak"
WIN vs Uroš Medić
Submission (neck crank) R2 4:12 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 27 51% 17 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Uroš Medić 0 8 of 20 40% 16 of 31 7 of 10 70% 1 0 7:26
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Myktybek Orolbai 0 14 of 25 56% 15 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Uroš Medić 0 5 of 13 38% 6 of 14 5 of 8 62% 0 0 3:49
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 0 of 2 0% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Uroš Medić 0 3 of 7 42% 10 of 17 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 27 51% 10 of 20 4 of 7 0 of 0 5 of 14 8 of 12 1 of 1
Uroš Medić 8 of 20 40% 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 4 3 of 8 1 of 1 4 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Myktybek Orolbai 14 of 25 56% 10 of 20 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 12 8 of 12 1 of 1
Uroš Medić 5 of 13 38% 4 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 9
2 Myktybek Orolbai 0 of 2 0% 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Uroš Medić 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo picks Uroš Medić, expecting his technical striking and patience to light up the brawler Johnny Parsons. He notes Medić has speed, footwork, and a killer instinct. He warns that Parsons is always live for a knockout but does not think he will find it here.

"I think uros medic is going to light up Johnny Parsons because he's going to be more technical he's going to stay on the outside"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Big Brady was impressed with Orolbai's skills but notes he's coming in on short notice, which affects his cardio for a wrestling-heavy game plan. He thinks Medić is dangerous, has shown three-round cardio, and can finish fights late. He picks Medić by third-round knockout, but says on a full camp he would pick Orolbai. He doesn't see himself betting this fight.

"I'm gonna pick medic just due to the fact that oral is coming in here on short notice"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a clear pick due to lack of information on Orolbai. He notes the fight was added late and he hasn't studied it. He mentions Orolbai looks like a 'bad man' but is on short notice. He leans towards passing or taking the favorite but is uncertain.

"I don't really got a concrete answer for you I guess orbi is the cowards way yet I'll just take the favorite"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has relentless grappling and crushing top pressure, with improved striking leading to knockouts. Medić is a striker with questionable ground game. Orolbai will dictate the pace with wrestling, land big shots, and find a finish in the second round. The fight doesn't go to decision is a favorite prop.

fight doesn't go to decision, Orolbai inside the distance
"give me oral by by uh let's say TKO inside the distance but even his betting line at minus 140 I think that is a gift of a line or obai inside the distance"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Paul also does not make a clear pick, stating he hasn't looked into Orolbai enough. He mentions Medić's toughness and power but cannot confidently pick a side. He suggests the fight will be violent but passes on betting.

"I don't have I really don't know nearly enough about oral by to pick them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić to finish Myktybek Orolbai with a body kick. He notes Medić's size at welterweight and his win over Matthew Semelsberger, where he survived a knockdown and finished him in the third round at altitude. He criticizes Orolbai for making Danny Roberts look competitive and believes Medić's reach and height advantage will lead to a finish.

kick to the body finish
"I'm going to go with Uros Medic over Johnny Parsons... I reckon OS is going to finish him with a kick to the body."
Expert Picks (12)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 20, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Angelo picks Myktybek Orolbai in a close fight. He notes Orolbai has better cardio, can close the gap and get takedowns, and has a good chin. He thinks Rębecki's only hope is a knockout, but Orolbai is durable. He acknowledges Rębecki is good and has been reliable in the past, but leans toward Orolbai's pressure and grappling.

"motto's the pick again super close fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Big Brady picks Orolbai, expecting a chaotic scramble-fest. He notes that Rębecki slows down as fights go on, as seen against Fiori and Carlos Diego Ferreira. He believes Orolbai's pace will be too much for Rębecki and that Orolbai will take over as the fight progresses. He predicts a decision win, possibly with a late finish.

"I'm going to take my titty back here to win this fight and I think he wins it by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Cody picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his massive size and reach advantage over Rębecki. He notes that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight and has no plan B when his wrestling fails. Orolbai's size, power, and ability to lean on opponents will wear down Rębecki. Cody believes Orolbai will win by decision or late finish.

"sign me up for the much larger man or lebi"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Connor picks Orolbai, agreeing that he is more determined and a better round winner. He notes that Rębecki is a better puncher but more amorphous in his process, while Orolbai demands control and will not let Rębecki off the hook. Connor sees Rębecki winning the first round but losing the last two due to Orolbai's pressure.

"Yeah, that's the thing. I think I could see Robesky having a lot of success early. ... But if he can't ever stop from having to fight it off, yeah, then I, yeah, I think he's going to get tired and let a Robbie take over."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Daniel Vreeland picks Orolbai, noting that Rębecki gassed out in his last fight after spamming overhands. He argues that Rębecki's wrestling won't work against Orolbai, who is a better wrestler and scrambler. Vreeland expects Orolbai to wear Rębecki down and finish him.

"M Toc oral by I mean like oralay is the clear pick here I think he wears him down and gets him out of there too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mateusz Rębecki

Daniel Vreeland picks Mateusz Rębecki to win, but primarily because he sees value on the underdog at the current line. He believes the fight is closer than the odds suggest and that Rębecki's experience and pace could be decisive. Vreeland notes that Orolbai has shown vulnerability when things go south, as seen in the Brener fight.

"I'm going to go with him"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Jeff Fox agrees with Vreeland, picking Orolbai. He mentions that Orolbai has been impressive since joining the UFC and that he took him in his debut on short notice. Fox trusts Orolbai's skills and expects him to win.

"I'm glad I'm picking him then um if he's the clear pick yeah ori's been very good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Orolbai has the cardio and scrambling advantage, allowing him to avoid early danger and grind out a win. He could get a third-round finish or win on the scorecards. This is a grapple-heavy matchup.

Orolbai wins by third-round finish or decision
"I do believe orai has the cardio and scrambling Advantage which should allow him to stay out of too much danger early on in this matchup and then grind this fed out either winning a third round finish or winning this fight on the scorecards"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Paul picks Orolbai, agreeing that Rębecki was exposed in his last fight and that Orolbai's size and strength will be too much. He notes that Orolbai is a mountain of a man at 155 and that Rębecki's cardio issues will be exploited. Paul is confident Orolbai will win.

"orabi is just a mountain of a man at this Division"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

The Guru picks Myktybek Orolbai, citing his relentless pace and ability to dig deep. He notes that Orolbai pushed through adversity against Uros Medic and has shown good cardio. He believes Rębecki is good but may fade in the later rounds, while Orolbai's pressure and takedown attempts will break him. The Guru also mentions the humid Abu Dhabi environment favoring the tougher fighter.

"I'm going to go with Myktybek Orolbai over Mateusz Rębecki I think he can push more when the going gets tough."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 26, 2024 (fight day)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picked Orolbai but was worried he would hit a wall due to not being a physical force and having poor striking. He noted that Orolbai gets a lot done on heart and determination, but Rębecki crushed him in round one. Zane credited Orolbai for coming back and winning the second round, but ultimately scored the third for Rębecki because Orolbai was nearly dead earlier in the round. He called it a well-earned win for Rębecki.

"i picked or i'll be but i was really worried going in that he was going to hit a wall"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Myktybek Orolbai

Zane picks Orolbai because he is pot-committed to pressing forward and forcing his wrestling, and he is incredibly focused on making his fight happen. Even if Rębecki has early success, Orolbai's relentless pressure will gas him out and take over in later rounds. Zane notes that Orolbai is a round winner who stays calm and confident.

"I'm inclined to pick him just because I think, I just think he's incredibly focused on making his fight happen. And I think if he gets that fight, even if he's not all that overwhelming at first, it is going to gas Robesky."