UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Age 27
Height 5' 4"
Reach 66.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 5' 5"
Reach 65.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Erin Blanchfield
5.24 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
4.25 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.96 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
78.0% TD Def.
0.9 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Tracy Cortez
3.86 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.01 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
2.15 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Erin Blanchfield
Moneyline
FanDuel -250
KO/TKO
Caesars +1800
Submission
BetMGM +575
Decision
FanDuel -125
Tracy Cortez
Moneyline
Caesars +230
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
Caesars +2200
Decision
BetMGM +320
Erin Blanchfield - Fight History
WIN vs Tracy Cortez
Submission R2 4:44 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 52 of 116 44% 65 of 134 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:43
Tracy Cortez 0 46 of 104 44% 50 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 43 of 92 46% 43 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 32 of 76 42% 33 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 9 of 24 37% 22 of 42 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:43
Tracy Cortez 0 14 of 28 50% 17 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 52 of 116 44% 38 of 100 6 of 8 8 of 8 51 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 46 of 104 44% 35 of 88 7 of 12 4 of 4 45 of 100 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 43 of 92 46% 32 of 80 5 of 6 6 of 6 42 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 32 of 76 42% 25 of 64 4 of 9 3 of 3 31 of 72 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 9 of 24 37% 6 of 20 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 14 of 28 50% 10 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield despite considering Tracy Cortez's wrestling. He values Blanchfield's relentless pressure and scrambling ability. He notes Cortez is often at events and may not be training enough. He suggests over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 bet on Cortez as possibilities.

over 2.5 rounds, plus 3.5 on Cortez
"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield. Tracy could absolutely get the takedowns here and work... Over two and a half is probably solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady leans Erin Blanchfield, believing her grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Tracy Cortez has only 62% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas and others. Brady thinks Blanchfield's top control and submission skills are superior once the fight hits the ground, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges the line is wide and a case can be made for Cortez.

decision
"I'm going to lean Blanchfield to get the done get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, noting that she has improved significantly since their first fight six years ago, especially her striking. He points out that Cortez has not evolved and has been inactive. Cody believes Blanchfield's wrestling and pressure will be too much, and she will win by decision. He also mentions that Blanchfield is younger and more motivated.

Blanchfield by decision
"Blanchfield's likely to take her down and give her all types of problems. And if she doesn't take her down, she's going to come forward, she's going to throw punches, she's going to try to outwork her."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Connor also leans toward Cortez, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Cortez is an inch taller than Blanchfield, which is surprising, and that Blanchfield's aggressive style may lead to her giving things away. He thinks Cortez can win out scrambles and that Blanchfield's one-size-fits-all approach may not work.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200.
"I'm going to go Cortez with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel sees Blanchfield as the more evolved fighter since their first fight, with relentless pressure and a never-quit attitude. He notes that Cortez struggles when she is the nail, while Blanchfield has shown she can overcome adversity. He expects Blanchfield to avenge her loss and continue her rise.

"I'm still going to come out here and pick Aaron Blanchfield to win the rematch and avenge the loss against Tracy Cortez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win, citing her superior grappling and submission skills. He believes Cortez will engage in wrestling, which plays into Blanchfield's strengths, as she is a better MMA grappler and dangerous from top position. He notes Blanchfield's ability to submit opponents from any position, as seen in her previous win over Cortez. He expects Blanchfield to win via submission or dominant decision.

"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield to get the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Blanchfield lands bigger shots on the feet and eventually lands takedowns for control and BJJ superiority. Cortez may be the better wrestler on paper, but Blanchfield gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I expect Blanchfield to get her hand raised as I think she'll be able to land bigger shots on the feet and eventually land those takedowns where she can get some good control and utilize her BJJ superiority."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Blanchfield's striking has improved the most. He notes that Cortez's takedown defense is not great and that Blanchfield will likely control the fight. Paul also mentions that Blanchfield has a home-field advantage and that the fight will likely go to decision. He likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Blanchfield by decision minus 133 is not horrible."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The Guru picks Erin Blanchfield to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Blanchfield's grappling and physicality will be decisive, though she may lose the first round. He criticizes Cortez's focus on appearance (fake eyelashes) and notes Blanchfield's win over Rose Namajunas as a better benchmark. Blanchfield should mix in takedowns and control later rounds.

"I'm gonna go with Blanchfield getting this one done. I'm going to say that Blanchfield wins this by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Zane leans toward Cortez, noting that Cortez has a win over Blanchfield and is a very good scrambler and grappler. He thinks Blanchfield's aggressive style might play into Cortez's hands, as Cortez is comfortable in scrambles. However, he admits it's hard to get a grip on Cortez and that she is still developing.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200. Blanchfield opened -225, currently -235.
"I'm leaning Cortez."
CANCEL vs Maycee Barber
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 18, 2025 (13 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield, expecting her to move forward, absorb strikes, and get the fight to the ground where she can dominate. He notes that Maycee Barber's takedown defense is midlevel (53%) and that Blanchfield is tough and relentless. He predicts a decision win for Blanchfield, though she may have close calls.

Expects a decision win.
"Aaron Blanchfield is going to be the pick. The round line is going to be interesting here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 26, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her superior grappling and Barber's poor takedown defense (50%). He notes that Barber has been taken down by lesser fighters like Roxanne Modafferi and Andrea Lee. He believes Blanchfield will have no trouble taking Barber down and controlling her on the ground, leading to a decision win.

by decision
"I'll go Blanchfield. I think Blanchfield probably wins by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Connor picks Barber based on a gut feeling that Barber is the kind of fighter who does not wilt under pressure, unlike the opponents Blanchfield has thrived against. He argues that Blanchfield's entire style relies on breaking opponents' spirits, but Barber's confidence and aggression make her unlikely to fade. Connor also notes that Barber's improved striking and ability to adjust could allow her to win exchanges on the feet, and that Blanchfield's grappling opportunities may be limited if Barber can get back to her feet.

"I just have a gut feeling that Barbara is one of those fighters who does not play along. In the way that Blanchfield's very broad strokes kind of style benefits from Blanchfield wants you to wither. It's the whole basis …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Matt picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield's wrestling and top pressure will be the difference, as Barber lacks the footwork and movement of Manon Fiorot to keep Blanchfield at bay. Blanchfield should get takedowns and grind out a decision, though submission props are also intriguing.

Blanchfield by decision +100, Blanchfield by submission +450, Barber by KO +550, round 3 sub +2400, round 4 sub +3000, round 5 sub +3600
"I am leaning the Blanchfield way."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 28, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield by decision, citing her pressure and takedowns. He notes Andrea Lee took Barber down five times, and Blanchfield is better. He believes the Apex benefits Blanchfield and that Barber's movement won't be as effective. He predicts a competitive five-rounder with Blanchfield winning via grappling.

PrizePicks: Maycee Barber over 78.5 significant strikes; decision win
"I'm gonna go with Aaron Blanchfield... I think this is going to be a five rounder... Erin Blanchfield gets this one done against Macy Barber by decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 29, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Zane picks Blanchfield because he believes Barber's clinch-heavy style will give Blanchfield too many opportunities to take the fight to the ground, where Blanchfield's exceptional top control is a major advantage. He notes that Barber has improved her striking and adjustments, but her tendency to explode into the clinch plays into Blanchfield's strengths. Zane also points out that Blanchfield's pressure and volume could overwhelm Barber, though he acknowledges Barber's durability and confidence.

"I have to take Blanchfield here. I just think that if Barbara, if the core function of Barbara has become a better rain tracker, but if the core functionality of her game remains her ability to bully people in the …"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 110 of 281 39% 193 of 387 2 of 8 25% 0 0 8:54
Rose Namajunas 0 94 of 245 38% 101 of 254 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 19 of 68 27% 19 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Rose Namajunas 0 30 of 61 49% 30 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 67 37% 28 of 70 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:15
Rose Namajunas 0 23 of 65 35% 26 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:08
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 11 of 28 39% 48 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:38
Rose Namajunas 0 9 of 21 42% 10 of 22 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
4 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 93 43% 43 of 97 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
Rose Namajunas 0 25 of 79 31% 25 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
5 Erin Blanchfield 0 15 of 25 60% 55 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 4:08
Rose Namajunas 0 7 of 19 36% 10 of 22 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 110 of 281 39% 81 of 248 15 of 16 14 of 17 103 of 269 2 of 6 5 of 6
Rose Namajunas 94 of 245 38% 68 of 212 18 of 24 8 of 9 91 of 241 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 19 of 68 27% 11 of 58 3 of 4 5 of 6 19 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 30 of 61 49% 22 of 52 2 of 3 6 of 6 30 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 67 37% 21 of 61 2 of 2 2 of 4 25 of 65 0 of 2 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 23 of 65 35% 17 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 2 22 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 11 of 28 39% 7 of 24 2 of 2 2 of 2 10 of 24 0 of 2 1 of 2
Rose Namajunas 9 of 21 42% 7 of 18 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
4 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 93 43% 29 of 82 6 of 6 5 of 5 40 of 93 0 of 0 0 of 0
Rose Namajunas 25 of 79 31% 16 of 67 8 of 11 1 of 1 25 of 78 0 of 1 0 of 0
5 Erin Blanchfield 15 of 25 60% 13 of 23 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 2 of 2 4 of 4
Rose Namajunas 7 of 19 36% 6 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas confidently, calling her an all-time great and a better striker than Erin Blanchfield. He notes Blanchfield's inability to get takedowns was exposed against Manon Fiorot, and without that, she is stuck in a striking match with a superior striker. He thinks five rounds help Rose, as she can afford to lose a round if taken down. He placed a half unit bet on Rose at plus 100 (even money).

half unit on Rose Namajunas at +100
"Rose should absolutely win this fight five rounds only helps Rose because if she does get taken down in a round and gives one up she's got four more to cover the distance she's not only the pick but she …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Big Brady picks Rose Namajunas to win by decision. He questions Erin Blanchfield's wrestling, noting her low takedown accuracy (33%) and failure to take down opponents like Fiorot and Santos. He believes on the feet, Rose is clearly superior, and even if taken down, Rose's scrambling is good. Brady likes the plus money and thinks the big cage favors Rose.

plus money
"at plus money I'm going to I'm going to take the dog here and and Rose nunas I think it's going to be a very close fight... I'll take her to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas as an underdog, arguing that Blanchfield's takedown struggles against Manon Fiorot (0 for 3) and Taila Santos (0 for 14) show she can't reliably take down elite grapplers. He believes Rose's striking, footwork, and takedown defense will keep the fight standing, where she has the advantage. He also notes Rose's experience in five-round fights and her ability to mix in takedowns herself.

"I do kind of feel like maybe the plus money on Rose Nom units is a little more warranted so I'm going to go with that and I'm going to take RADS."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Vreeland picks Erin Blanchfield to win, arguing that the line is influenced by recency bias from Blanchfield's loss to Manon Fiorot. He points out that Rose Namajunas has poor takedown defense (under 60%) compared to Fiorot's 93%, and that Blanchfield's grappling is a different level—she can take the back and submit opponents. Vreeland expects Blanchfield to pressure Namajunas, get takedowns, and potentially finish via ground-and-pound or submission.

"I'm going Aaron blanchfield to get back on track regain her hype"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win inside the distance, emphasizing her grappling advantage. He notes Rose has been taken down in recent fights and that Blanchfield's wrestling will be decisive. He believes Rose has lost some athleticism and that Blanchfield can finish via submission, likely a rear-naked choke.

wins inside the distance
"I'm taking Aaron blanchfield in this one and I actually think she gets it done inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements, and that will get her a victory over Blanchfield. She will win at least three of the five rounds by out-pointing and out-damaging Blanchfield, winning on the scorecards and positioning herself for a title shot.

"Namajunas has shown tremendous defensive grappling improvements and I believe that will get her a victory here over Blanchfield look for Namajunas to win at least three of the five rounds here by out pointing and out damaging Blanchfield and …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul sides with Rose but is less confident, expecting a close split decision. He notes that Blanchfield's path to victory is through takedowns, but Rose has shown improved takedown defense and can win on the feet. He mentions the common opponent Jessica Andrade, where Rose won by decision and Blanchfield by submission, but sees the fight as competitive. He plans to bet the split decision prop rather than the moneyline.

split decision prop
"I expect the fight to be incredibly close on the feet on the mat and I'm going to side with rose but I don't plan on betting this but yeah I'll be looking for the split decision prop."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

The Guru picks Rose Namajunas over Erin Blanchfield, calling Blanchfield overrated. He praises Namajunas's technical skills, scrambles, and wrestling reactions. He notes Blanchfield's poor performance against Manon Fiorot and believes Namajunas will win as an underdog.

"I'm going to go Rose wellt Tred fighter I don't think she's like man on fioro level but she took it to man on fioro and she broke her hand in that fight"
LOSS vs Manon Fiorot
Decision (unanimous) (50–45, 50–45, 50–45) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manon Fiorot 0 130 of 386 33% 135 of 394 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:48
Erin Blanchfield 0 172 of 359 47% 181 of 369 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 58 36% 22 of 60 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:27
Erin Blanchfield 0 28 of 57 49% 30 of 59 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:46
2 Manon Fiorot 0 21 of 77 27% 22 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Erin Blanchfield 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Manon Fiorot 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Erin Blanchfield 0 29 of 70 41% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Manon Fiorot 0 37 of 98 37% 38 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Erin Blanchfield 0 46 of 85 54% 47 of 86 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
5 Manon Fiorot 0 27 of 85 31% 29 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Erin Blanchfield 0 42 of 86 48% 48 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manon Fiorot 130 of 386 33% 80 of 318 25 of 40 25 of 28 124 of 371 6 of 15 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 172 of 359 47% 143 of 321 18 of 25 11 of 13 167 of 346 5 of 13 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manon Fiorot 21 of 58 36% 14 of 48 3 of 6 4 of 4 21 of 55 0 of 3 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 28 of 57 49% 25 of 52 2 of 2 1 of 3 25 of 53 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Manon Fiorot 21 of 77 27% 11 of 64 6 of 8 4 of 5 19 of 70 2 of 7 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 27 of 61 44% 18 of 50 6 of 8 3 of 3 26 of 57 1 of 4 0 of 0
3 Manon Fiorot 24 of 68 35% 15 of 52 6 of 11 3 of 5 21 of 65 3 of 3 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 29 of 70 41% 24 of 64 3 of 4 2 of 2 29 of 68 0 of 2 0 of 0
4 Manon Fiorot 37 of 98 37% 22 of 81 8 of 10 7 of 7 37 of 97 0 of 1 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 46 of 85 54% 40 of 78 3 of 4 3 of 3 46 of 83 0 of 2 0 of 0
5 Manon Fiorot 27 of 85 31% 18 of 73 2 of 5 7 of 7 26 of 84 1 of 1 0 of 0
Erin Blanchfield 42 of 86 48% 36 of 77 4 of 7 2 of 2 41 of 85 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Erin Blanchfield vs. Manon Fiorot
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Blanchfield (-192), Fiorot (+160)

Round 1
A possible shot at the flyweight title is on the line here as Blanchfield and Fiorot bring their dueling six-fight Octagon winning streaks into the “UFC Atlantic City” main event. Drawing the final referee assignment of the evening is Vitor “Shaolin” Ribeiro. Fiorot is southpaw, Blanchfield orthodox. Fiorot sticks out the jab early. Blanchfield throws a body kick, but takes a lefty counter upstairs. Fiorot changes levels, hoists Blanchfield into the air and slams her to the canvas. Blanchfield grabs a guillotine and it’s tight. Fiorot tries to get out of Blanchfield’s guard and to safety, and Blanchfield gets to her feet, still holding the choke. They fight out the position against the cage, Fiorot fighting the hands as Blanchfield tries to tighten the choke. Blanchfield finally gives up on the submission and they split and reset in the middle of the cage. Fiorot works with the jab again, keeping the shorter woman on the outside. Blanchfield throws a high kick that glances off the chest and arms of Fiorot. Blanchfield backs Fiorot up to the fence with a string of punches, then grabs a body lock and tries to take her down. She can’t get the takedown, and eats a sharp right hand on the break. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 2
Blanchfield bounces into range, trying to get past Fiorot’s jab, but Fiorot is wise to it. Blanchfield throws a body kick that glances off the arms. Blanchfield steps in and uses a body lock and trip to take Fiorot down. She succeeds, but Fiorot uses muscle and balance to sweep her and land on top, then stands and makes Blanchfield follow. Fiorot lands a karate-style side kick to the lead leg of Blanchfield, stopping her forward progress. Blanchfield steps in and grabs another body lock, and again Fiorot just kind of muscles her away. Fiorot steps inside a punch to clinch, then throws a knee as they separate. Blanchfield is relentless in her forward movement, but Fiorot is doing a brilliant job so far of using jabs and low kicks to keep her outside, or collapsing the distance and clinching when she gets in. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 3
Blanchfield swings her way into the pocket and lands a couple of punches. Fiorot makes some space between them and meets Blanchfield’s next entry with a downward low kick. Blanchfield shoves into the clinch, and Fiorot simply tosses her by, throwing her toward the fence. Blanchfield draws a jab out of Fiorot and counters with a nice straight. Blanchfield is finding some success landing her right hand over Fiorot’s left. Blanchfield charges in, and once again Fiorot just kind of flings her on her way. Blanchfield spins down to one knee before turning to re-engage. Blanchfield is bleeding from a small cut outside her left eye, though the blood is thankfully not running into the eye. Blanchfield clinches, and while Fiorot shucks her off, Blanchfield connects with a nice short right on the way out. Under a minute to go, and the Atlantic City crowd is audibly restive. Fiorot meets a Blanchfield charge with a hard knee up the middle. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 4
The main event rounds open with Blanchfield again coming forward aggressively, swinging hooks with both hands. Again, Fiorot meets her calmly with the jab and leg kick. Blanchfield, perhaps knowing that she needs to do something big, throws caution to the wind, charging into the pocket and swinging away. Fiorot gives ground, her composure momentarily shaken, and Blanchfield lands a couple of solid punches. They clinch and Fiorot grabs a body lock, considers hoisting Blanchfield for another slam, but can’t complete it and they separate. Two minutes to go in the round and Blanchfield is still the aggressor, but Fiorot is back to managing the distance and keeping the shorter woman on the outside. With under 30 seconds to go, Fiorot catches Blanchfield coming in with a kick to the body, stopping her in her tracks. The 10-second clapper sounds, and neither woman lands anything of substance before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot

Round 5
Blanchfield’s corner sends her back out with the instruction, “You need a f***in’ finish,” mirroring our scorecards here at Sherdog. Blanchfield comes out throwing with abandon, and lands a head kick that staggers the Frenchwoman. Fiorot recovers quickly, but damage was done. Fiorot enters the pocket and Fiorot shoves her with both hands, dropping her to her seat. Blanchfield is trying to walk Fiorot down, perhaps corral her against the fence, but Fiorot is wise to it and continues to dominate the distance battle. Fiorot’s lead left hook is finding the American’s head on the entry or exit from almost every exchange. Blanchfield marches forward, but Fiorot meets her with a one-two that snaps her head back. Blanchfield pushes through, clinches and shoves Fiorot into the cage with under a minute left. They disengage and Fiorot, far from sitting on her lead, throws a flying knee at the oncoming Blanchfield. Blanchfield misses with a high kick and Fiorot throws a spinning attack that ends in a collision. The final horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (50-45 Fiorot)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (50-45 Fiorot)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fiorot (50-45 Fiorot)

The Official Result
Manon Fiorot def. Erin Blanchfield via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Angelo picks Manon Fiorot but is not very confident. He cites Fiorot's striking power and 91% takedown defense, contrasting with Blanchfield's poor takedown attempts in her last fight. He worries that Blanchfield's toughness and forward pressure could trouble Fiorot. He notes underdogs have won 66% of main events in 2024.

"I am going to pick man in here I'm not very confident Aaron is not soft she is tough as hell"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 25, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Big Brady picks Manon Fiorot to win by decision, taking the underdog. He sees it as a close fight that likely goes the distance. He favors Fiorot in the striking early, but worries about Blanchfield's pressure and grappling later. He notes Blanchfield's takedown accuracy is low and Fiorot's takedown defense is elite. Brady expects a split decision where Fiorot does better work early.

"I'm going to take the dog here in fioro I'll take her to win a very very tight decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Cody sees Fiorot as a live underdog due to her takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes Blanchfield's recent struggles with takedowns (0 for 14 against Santos) and believes Fiorot can keep the fight standing and outpoint her. However, he admits it's more of a price play and not a high-confidence pick.

"I am going to go with furo for the record we will break down the fight but seems like the value play would be on her side"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Daniel Vreeland picks Manon Fiorot at plus money, stating he bet her at +170. He believes Fiorot is very disciplined, won't get carried away, and can frustrate Blanchfield by staying on the feet and using her movement. He notes that Fiorot has survived takedowns before (e.g., against Jennifer Maia) and that Blanchfield's wrestling isn't elite. He acknowledges Blanchfield's submission threat but thinks Fiorot can avoid being finished and win a decision.

"I did take that plus 170 on my known field row and to me it's just about playing it smart here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2023 (410 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

James sees this as a 50/50 fight due to the unknowns of whether Blanchfield can get takedowns against Andrade. He notes Blanchfield's grappling is elite but her striking defense is poor, while Andrade has one-punch power and strong clinch work. He leans Blanchfield because of her youth and potential to get takedowns in later rounds, but is not confident. He mentions Blanchfield at +150 offers value.

"I do lean on the side that Aaron Blanchfield is actually going to shock some people here and that she will get some takedowns."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Fiorot's takedown defense and movement are key; she has only been controlled for 1:40 in 77 minutes of UFC cage time. Blanchfield's takedown success has plummeted (2 of 22 in last 4 fights), and she gets hit often. Fiorot's lateral movement and ability to pivot off Blanchfield's entries should allow her to land straight shots and avoid prolonged grappling. The fight resembles Leon Edwards vs. Kamaru Usman where the wrestler fails on takedowns and eats damage. Fiorot by decision is the most likely outcome, though the last two rounds could be close.

Fiorot by decision; half unit at +160; may add more if line improves
"I got to go with Foo here odds wise I think plus 160 is a damn good number to take a shot on"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Manon Fiorot

Paul agrees with Cody that Fiorot is a live underdog, citing Blanchfield's takedown struggles and Fiorot's technical striking. He mentions the close fight with Rose Namajunas as a reference but admits he doesn't feel great about it, calling it a 'dog or pass' situation.

"I generally tend to agree with you here I mean but looking back on doing I guess a little bit of MMA math it's like looking how Rose did against heus this past weekend"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He believes Blanchfield's takedown attempts and aggression will be key, especially in a five-round fight. He notes that Fiorot may struggle to stuff takedowns over five rounds and that Blanchfield is willing to shoot repeatedly. He also sees opportunities for Blanchfield to take Fiorot's back when Fiorot turns after combinations. He predicts a 49-46 decision, with Blanchfield losing one round.

decision win, 49-46
"I'm going to go with Aon blanchfield I think she'll be able to push and also I watched back her fight with Jessica and dra it wasn't what I remember... I'm actually going to pick blanchfield by decision 4946"
WIN vs Taila Santos
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. The Korean Zombie · Aug 26, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 61 of 128 47% 119 of 210 0 of 14 0% 0 0 8:08
Taila Santos 0 55 of 151 36% 96 of 202 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 26 of 55 47% 36 of 69 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:22
Taila Santos 0 25 of 71 35% 31 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:06
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 9 of 18 50% 34 of 58 0 of 4 0% 0 0 4:01
Taila Santos 0 11 of 24 45% 32 of 48 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
3 Erin Blanchfield 0 26 of 55 47% 49 of 83 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:45
Taila Santos 0 19 of 56 33% 33 of 74 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 61 of 128 47% 37 of 99 18 of 23 6 of 6 43 of 102 17 of 24 1 of 2
Taila Santos 55 of 151 36% 28 of 118 9 of 15 18 of 18 46 of 133 9 of 18 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 26 of 55 47% 16 of 45 7 of 7 3 of 3 20 of 49 6 of 6 0 of 0
Taila Santos 25 of 71 35% 13 of 56 5 of 8 7 of 7 21 of 63 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 4 of 7 2 of 2 5 of 9 3 of 7 1 of 2
Taila Santos 11 of 24 45% 5 of 16 2 of 4 4 of 4 8 of 19 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Erin Blanchfield 26 of 55 47% 18 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 44 8 of 11 0 of 0
Taila Santos 19 of 56 33% 10 of 46 2 of 3 7 of 7 17 of 51 2 of 5 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 20, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling and improved striking, but leans toward Santos because of her power, technical striking, and BJJ. He questions whether Blanchfield can get takedowns against Santos, and if she can't, Santos will light her up. He notes that Blanchfield is a surprising 2-to-1 favorite and thinks the fight should be closer to even money.

"I just have a tiny slight lean for Tyler she's I'm gonna pick her this should be almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 21, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady is torn on this fight, acknowledging both fighters are championship caliber. He favors Blanchfield due to her youth, activity, and improvements, especially in striking. He questions Santos's mental toughness, citing her excuses after the Valentina fight and pulling out of this fight earlier. He expects a close fight and picks Blanchfield by decision, but with low confidence.

decision
"blanchfield blanchfield by decision but not a ton of confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield due to her youth, improving skills, and superior cardio. He believes her wrestling and pressure will wear down Santos, who he sees as a step down from the elite. Cody expects a close decision or late submission.

"the pick for me is Blanche Shield because I'm Blanche Shield believer"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her mean streak and relentless pressure. He notes that Santos is more physical and a better striker, but Blanchfield's grappling and cardio will take over in later rounds. He mentions that Blanchfield is a lifelong black belt and has a strong chin. He is confident she wins, though he thinks the price is accurate and not a value bet.

"I think Aaron blanchfield wins here um I'm close to betting her but I haven't yet because I do think I kind of agree with you the slime"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 26, 2023 (fight day)
Erin Blanchfield

James picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her continuous improvement, will to win, and superior grappling chain. He believes she can get takedowns on Santos and dominate on the mat, potentially submitting her. He acknowledges Santos' size and power but thinks Blanchfield's pace and cardio will be decisive. He also notes Santos' inactivity and the emotional letdown from the title loss.

bet on Erin Blanchfield moneyline; also considered Blanchfield submission at 22-1 but did not bet
"I lean air in blanchfield a decent amount"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host acknowledges Taila Santos' strength and performance against Valentina Shevchenko, but believes Blanchfield's technical grappling and top control will be the difference. He notes Blanchfield's dominant win over Jessica Andrade and her ability to pass guard and maintain top position. The host expects a grueling fight but picks Blanchfield by decision.

"I'm going to go blanchfield and blanchfield by decision but it's going to be a grueling grueling fight for bro both women."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Aug 24, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul sides with Blanchfield, noting her grappling advantage and potential to get takedowns. He acknowledges Santos' close fight with Shevchenko but thinks Blanchfield's youth and improvement give her the edge. Paul is not fully confident but leans Blanchfield.

"I'm going to side with Blanche Fields uh on that"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield over Taila Santos, citing Blanchfield's youth (6-year age difference) and likely improvement. He believes Blanchfield has better grappling, scrambles, and crisper stand-up, though Santos may have a power advantage. He notes Santos' close fight with Valentina Shevchenko but thinks Blanchfield's activity and conditioning will win. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision.

Unanimous decision predicted
"I'm gonna go Erin blanchfield I think her grappling game's a bit better I think her striking's a bit more active she's a bit busier her conditioning is a bit better"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:37 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 53 of 143 37% 56 of 147 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 51 of 120 42% 53 of 124 1 of 3 33% 1 0 1:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 40 of 106 37% 43 of 110 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 44 of 100 44% 46 of 104 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:39
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 13 of 37 35% 13 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jéssica Andrade 0 7 of 20 35% 7 of 20 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 53 of 143 37% 28 of 107 5 of 16 20 of 20 50 of 137 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 51 of 120 42% 38 of 105 2 of 4 11 of 11 50 of 117 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 40 of 106 37% 22 of 80 4 of 12 14 of 14 37 of 100 3 of 6 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 44 of 100 44% 32 of 86 2 of 4 10 of 10 43 of 97 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 13 of 37 35% 6 of 27 1 of 4 6 of 6 13 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jéssica Andrade 7 of 20 35% 6 of 19 0 of 0 1 of 1 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Angelo is very confident in Andrade, even on short notice. He highlights Andrade's technical improvement in her last fight against Lauren Murphy, where she showed precision rather than just bullying. He believes Andrade's BJJ black belt and experience against top competition will neutralize Blanchfield's grappling. Angelo notes the line moved from -190 to -170 and he placed a two-unit bet at -150. He dismisses comparisons to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting Shevchenko uses judo while Blanchfield uses wrestling, which Andrade can defend.

Two-unit moneyline bet at -150. Also mentions Andrade by decision at -120 but prefers moneyline.
"I think Jessica andrage absolutely gets this done I'm confident in Jessica andrage to get this done."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Big Brady thinks this is too soon for Blanchfield, who has only beaten lower-level competition like Molly McCann. He notes that Andrade only gets dominated by elite grapplers like Valentina Shevchenko, and Blanchfield is not on that level yet. He worries about Blanchfield's takedown success, as she was 0-for-4 against JJ Aldrich. He predicts Andrade will win by knockout, likely in the second round, as Blanchfield has nothing for her on the feet.

Andrade by KO/TKO, round 2
"I'm gonna take Jessica andrage by my knockout... I think she gets it done the second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Cody initially liked Blanchfield at plus money due to Andrade taking the fight on short notice and Blanchfield's suffocating style, but as the line tightened he shifted to Andrade. He notes Andrade is a proven commodity with better striking and five-round experience, and that she wouldn't take a fight she couldn't win. However, he acknowledges Blanchfield's grappling threat and says he wants to watch weigh-ins before betting.

Line movement noted: Blanchfield opened plus money, now +120 to +125. Cody considered early plus money on Blanchfield but missed it.
"I think you take a back class and you take Jessica and Josh prove a commodity much better Striker has fought these high level five rounds before... current line I take it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Andrade is a huge step up for Blanchfield. He notes that Blanchfield's striking is very undeveloped, especially her kicks, and that Andrade's power will be a shock. He also points out that Blanchfield struggled with Aldrich's counter striking and maneuvering, and Andrade is a much more physical and powerful version of that. Connor sees the fight as too much too soon for Blanchfield.

"I'm gonna go ahead and assume that I can't expect an X factor due to the short notice... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Jacob is a self-proclaimed Blanchfield hater and picks Andrade confidently. He criticizes Blanchfield's lack of a plan B when things go wrong, citing her fight against JJ Aldrich where she was dominated until a Hail Mary guillotine. Jacob believes Andrade is a better striker and will stuff takedowns, leading to Blanchfield being embarrassed. He compares it to Whittaker vs Vettori and Emmett vs Rodriguez, where one-dimensional wrestlers were exposed. He is not worried about short notice because Andrade wouldn't take the fight if she wasn't ready.

"Jessica Andre is a better Striker she Stuffs the takedowns and Aaron blanchfield is absolutely in embarrassed in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Andrade's relentless pressure, power, and strength will be too much for Blanchfield, who struggled with takedowns against JJ Aldrich and may not be ready for this step up. Andrade's durability and takedown defense should keep her safe, and she will eventually land a knockout, likely in the third or fourth round.

Andrade wins by KO in round 3 or 4
"I felt pretty damn confident on the Jessica Andrade side... we'll see Andrade knock her out."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Paul likes Andrade, citing her recent performance against Lauren Murphy where she looked great and nearly finished her. He questions the comparison to Valentina Shevchenko's takedowns, noting that outside of Shevchenko, no one has easily taken Andrade down. He struggles to get behind Blanchfield at the current price, calling it a big step up in competition. He says if the line keeps moving toward Blanchfield, he'll be forced to jump on Andrade.

Line movement: Blanchfield opened -175/-180, now -135. Paul says he'll likely add Andrade to his card after weigh-ins.
"I really struggled to get to Aaron blancheville particularly at this price... this line keeps moving I'm gonna be forced to jump in on Jessica on John."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

The MMA Guru picks Jéssica Andrade, stating she hits different and is a step above other flyweights except Shevchenko. He believes Andrade's power will break Blanchfield's nose early, forcing panic takedowns. He recalls Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldridge where she struggled before getting a guillotine, and thinks Andrade will be too much. He notes Andrade is a 2-to-1 favorite and calls those odds good, predicting a first-round TKO.

TKO first round, odds: -200 (2-to-1 favorite)
"I think andraj is like going to shatter that beak of a nose on blanchfield's face"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jéssica Andrade

Zane picks Andrade because Blanchfield's striking is still raw and relies on pressure and volume, but she struggles against skilled or physically imposing opponents. Andrade is both, with power that Blanchfield has never faced. Blanchfield's takedown entries are not clean enough to consistently get Andrade down, and Andrade's speed and power will be overwhelming. Zane notes that Blanchfield is a good prospect but not complete enough to win this fight.

Andrade opened at -190, jumped to -155, currently -142; Blanchfield opened +165, dropped to +127, currently +117. Zane notes the odds are getting shorter for Blanchfield, which he finds surprising.
"I gotta pick Androge. Yeah, you know, there's the outside edge of an upset potential... Blanchfield is a good finisher... but it's just not complete enough for me to pick her here."
WIN vs Molly McCann
Submission (kimura) R1 3:37 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 38 65% 93 of 115 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:48
Molly McCann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 38 65% 93 of 115 1 of 1 100% 2 0 2:48
Molly McCann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 25 of 38 65% 22 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 19 0 of 0 18 of 19
Molly McCann 7 of 13 53% 2 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 38 65% 22 of 34 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 19 0 of 0 18 of 19
Molly McCann 7 of 13 53% 2 of 7 3 of 3 2 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo thinks Blanchfield is the more talented fighter with a higher ceiling, but he is concerned about her struggles in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He notes that McCann is gritty, experienced, and could break a young prospect. He picks Blanchfield to win via takedowns and control, but does not expect a submission. He suggests the bet might be on McCann inside the distance (decision no action) because McCann could avoid takedowns and win by stoppage, while a decision loss would refund the bet.

Molly McCann inside the distance (decision no action) on BetOnline
"I am not putting Aaron blanchfield in a parlay and the BET might actually be Molly McCann inside the distance decision no action"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by submission, calling it a terrible matchup for Molly McCann. He notes McCann's 46% takedown defense and how she was ragdolled by Laura Procopio. He compares Blanchfield's dominance over Miranda Maverick (7 takedowns) to that fight. He believes Blanchfield will take McCann down repeatedly and likely finish her, as McCann has been submitted before (by Gillian Robertson). He questions why McCann took the fight.

Blanchfield by submission; inside the distance
"it's blanchfield all day and honestly it's maybe even blanchfield inside the distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Molly McCann

Cody leans towards McCann strictly because of the plus money. He notes that Blanchfield struggled to get takedowns against JJ Aldrich and was taken down herself, which raises questions. He thinks if Blanchfield can't get the fight to the mat, McCann's striking could make it competitive. However, he acknowledges McCann's takedown defense is poor and Blanchfield is a strong wrestler, so he is not confident.

"I'm leaning towards uh McCann strictly because of the number."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Connor picks Blanchfield, citing McCann's inability to solve problems in fights and her tendency to get taken down easily. He notes that McCann's recent wins were against limited opponents, and that Blanchfield is a good opportunist who can take advantage of McCann's overaggression. Connor also mentions that McCann's best work is on the back foot, but she often presses forward and walks into danger.

"I'm going to pick Blanchfield. No, I think you have to pick Blanchfield honestly..."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, citing her grappling advantage and ability to take McCann down and control her. He notes that McCann struggles to get back up when taken down, and Blanchfield is a black belt. However, he is not interested in betting at -390 because he wants guarantees and worries that Blanchfield might stand and trade, giving McCann a chance. He respects McCann's heart and spirit but believes Blanchfield's path to victory is through grappling.

No bet at -390; odds mentioned: Blanchfield -390, McCann +320 at DraftKings
"Aaron's my pick it's just not really in any kind of Rush delay minus 400 on it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The host believes Blanchfield's superior grappling and trips will eventually get the fight to the ground, where she can submit McCann. He notes McCann's improved striking and confidence could make it competitive on the feet, but Blanchfield's grappling is the difference. He likes the under 2.5 rounds at +180 for finishing potential. He is not betting the moneyline at -390.

under 2.5 rounds (+180), Blanchfield by submission
"I'm gonna take her to win by submission I'll be keeping my eye on that submission prop"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul picks Blanchfield by decision, highlighting her relentless pressure and grappling. He notes that McCann has poor takedown defense (47%) and has been taken down 12 times in her two losses. Paul believes Blanchfield will take McCann down and control her on the mat, and that McCann's only chance is a spinning elbow knockout. He thinks Blanchfield's wrestling and top control will secure a decision win.

"I got Blanche field but I'm gonna try to chase the price and go by blanchfield by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield, highlighting her dominant grappling win over Miranda Maverick, who has since ragdolled others. He notes McCann's history of being outgrappled and believes the threat of takedowns will diminish McCann's striking. He predicts a 29-28 decision, with McCann possibly doing decent in the third round but lacking power to finish.

"I'm going with Aaron blanchfield"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Zane picks Blanchfield, noting that McCann's grappling deficiencies were exposed against Laura Procopio, who took her down easily. He points out that Blanchfield is a decent clinch wrestler and opportunist, and that McCann's tendency to overextend and get countered makes her vulnerable. Zane also mentions that Blanchfield's fight with JJ Aldrich showed she can take shots and keep pressing for takedowns.

"I think you have to pick Blanchfield honestly..."
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:38 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 48 of 100 48% 68 of 121 0 of 4 0% 1 0 0:56
JJ Aldrich 0 32 of 71 45% 38 of 77 2 of 6 33% 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 23 of 58 39% 27 of 62 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:43
JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 43 37% 21 of 48 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:16
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 25 of 42 59% 41 of 59 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:13
JJ Aldrich 0 16 of 28 57% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 48 of 100 48% 29 of 76 11 of 11 8 of 13 46 of 96 2 of 4 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 32 of 71 45% 29 of 66 3 of 5 0 of 0 31 of 68 1 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 23 of 58 39% 13 of 44 7 of 7 3 of 7 22 of 56 1 of 2 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 16 of 43 37% 15 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0 15 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 25 of 42 59% 16 of 32 4 of 4 5 of 6 24 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 16 of 28 57% 14 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0 16 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo sees Erin Blanchfield as a nasty grappler with dominant wrestling, and believes her path to victory is through grappling. He notes that JJ Aldrich is a decision machine with decent striking but a negative striking differential, and that the experience gap is not wide enough to matter. He expects Blanchfield to dominate with heavy grappling and may place a moneyline bet depending on the line movement.

may throw a moneyline bet on Blanchfield, waiting to see line movement
"I think it's more of the same from aaron here i think she dominates in a heavy grappling win and betting wise i may throw a money line bet on aaron"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady picks Erin Blanchfield to win by decision. He notes that Blanchfield is a huge favorite at -600 but thinks the line is too high, though he still sees her as one of the safer picks on the card. He expects Blanchfield to take Aldrich down repeatedly and control the fight on the mat, grinding out a dominant decision. He acknowledges Aldrich has good takedown defense but believes Blanchfield's relentless wrestling will be too much.

Blanchfield by decision
"I like blanchfield here do I like the minor 600 no I don't but I do think she is one of the safer picks as far as uh picking a win on this card see me blanchfield give me blanchfield …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, calling her a real prospect. He notes her wrestling and pressure, and thinks Aldrich's takedown defense has not been tested by a wrestler of Blanchfield's caliber. He expects Blanchfield to win by decision.

Blanchfield by decision
"i'm a bland shield supporter through and through"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel Levi picks Erin Blanchfield, praising her jiu-jitsu, wrestling, and youth. He acknowledges JJ Aldrich's experience but believes Blanchfield's skills will prevail. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation due to the steep price, but picks Blanchfield to win, likely by decision.

"i think that aaron blanchfield's got the skills to pay the bills so i'm gonna go with aaron"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul picks Blanchfield and has already bet Blanchfield by decision at -138. He notes Blanchfield's relentless grappling and pressure, and Aldrich's durability. He thinks Blanchfield will secure takedowns and grind out a decision.

Blanchfield by decision (minus 138)
"the bet that i did make this week was blanchfield by decision minus 138."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The MMA Guru picks Erin Blanchfield despite acknowledging JJ Aldrich as a decent underdog. He worries Aldrich might stuff takedowns but notes that Miranda Maverick, who he considers equal or better than Aldrich, couldn't stop Blanchfield's grappling. He expects Blanchfield to dominate on the ground and win by unanimous decision 30-27. However, he strongly dislikes the odds, calling them 'really annoying' and implying they are too wide for his comfort.

Dislikes the odds, says 'the odds are really annoying'
"i am going to go there in blanchfield but i don't like the odds the odds are really annoying on a lot of fights on these cards"
Tracy Cortez - Fight History
SCHED vs Wang Cong
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Submission R2 4:44 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Erin Blanchfield 0 52 of 116 44% 65 of 134 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:43
Tracy Cortez 0 46 of 104 44% 50 of 108 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Erin Blanchfield 0 43 of 92 46% 43 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 32 of 76 42% 33 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Erin Blanchfield 0 9 of 24 37% 22 of 42 2 of 3 66% 1 1 2:43
Tracy Cortez 0 14 of 28 50% 17 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Erin Blanchfield 52 of 116 44% 38 of 100 6 of 8 8 of 8 51 of 115 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 46 of 104 44% 35 of 88 7 of 12 4 of 4 45 of 100 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Erin Blanchfield 43 of 92 46% 32 of 80 5 of 6 6 of 6 42 of 91 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 32 of 76 42% 25 of 64 4 of 9 3 of 3 31 of 72 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Erin Blanchfield 9 of 24 37% 6 of 20 1 of 2 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 14 of 28 50% 10 of 24 3 of 3 1 of 1 14 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield despite considering Tracy Cortez's wrestling. He values Blanchfield's relentless pressure and scrambling ability. He notes Cortez is often at events and may not be training enough. He suggests over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 bet on Cortez as possibilities.

over 2.5 rounds, plus 3.5 on Cortez
"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield. Tracy could absolutely get the takedowns here and work... Over two and a half is probably solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady leans Erin Blanchfield, believing her grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Tracy Cortez has only 62% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas and others. Brady thinks Blanchfield's top control and submission skills are superior once the fight hits the ground, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges the line is wide and a case can be made for Cortez.

decision
"I'm going to lean Blanchfield to get the done get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, noting that she has improved significantly since their first fight six years ago, especially her striking. He points out that Cortez has not evolved and has been inactive. Cody believes Blanchfield's wrestling and pressure will be too much, and she will win by decision. He also mentions that Blanchfield is younger and more motivated.

Blanchfield by decision
"Blanchfield's likely to take her down and give her all types of problems. And if she doesn't take her down, she's going to come forward, she's going to throw punches, she's going to try to outwork her."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Connor also leans toward Cortez, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Cortez is an inch taller than Blanchfield, which is surprising, and that Blanchfield's aggressive style may lead to her giving things away. He thinks Cortez can win out scrambles and that Blanchfield's one-size-fits-all approach may not work.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200.
"I'm going to go Cortez with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel sees Blanchfield as the more evolved fighter since their first fight, with relentless pressure and a never-quit attitude. He notes that Cortez struggles when she is the nail, while Blanchfield has shown she can overcome adversity. He expects Blanchfield to avenge her loss and continue her rise.

"I'm still going to come out here and pick Aaron Blanchfield to win the rematch and avenge the loss against Tracy Cortez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win, citing her superior grappling and submission skills. He believes Cortez will engage in wrestling, which plays into Blanchfield's strengths, as she is a better MMA grappler and dangerous from top position. He notes Blanchfield's ability to submit opponents from any position, as seen in her previous win over Cortez. He expects Blanchfield to win via submission or dominant decision.

"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield to get the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Blanchfield lands bigger shots on the feet and eventually lands takedowns for control and BJJ superiority. Cortez may be the better wrestler on paper, but Blanchfield gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I expect Blanchfield to get her hand raised as I think she'll be able to land bigger shots on the feet and eventually land those takedowns where she can get some good control and utilize her BJJ superiority."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Blanchfield's striking has improved the most. He notes that Cortez's takedown defense is not great and that Blanchfield will likely control the fight. Paul also mentions that Blanchfield has a home-field advantage and that the fight will likely go to decision. He likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Blanchfield by decision minus 133 is not horrible."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The Guru picks Erin Blanchfield to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Blanchfield's grappling and physicality will be decisive, though she may lose the first round. He criticizes Cortez's focus on appearance (fake eyelashes) and notes Blanchfield's win over Rose Namajunas as a better benchmark. Blanchfield should mix in takedowns and control later rounds.

"I'm gonna go with Blanchfield getting this one done. I'm going to say that Blanchfield wins this by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Zane leans toward Cortez, noting that Cortez has a win over Blanchfield and is a very good scrambler and grappler. He thinks Blanchfield's aggressive style might play into Cortez's hands, as Cortez is comfortable in scrambles. However, he admits it's hard to get a grip on Cortez and that she is still developing.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200. Blanchfield opened -225, currently -235.
"I'm leaning Cortez."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 317: Topuria vs. Oliveira · Jun 28, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 22 of 51 43% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:43
Tracy Cortez 0 65 of 103 63% 102 of 143 3 of 5 60% 1 1 8:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 5 of 13 38% 15 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:43
Tracy Cortez 0 15 of 20 75% 23 of 28 1 of 2 50% 1 1 2:52
2 Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 29 41% 17 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 20 of 43 46% 25 of 49 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:15
3 Viviane Araújo 0 5 of 9 55% 7 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tracy Cortez 0 30 of 40 75% 54 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 22 of 51 43% 16 of 45 3 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 48 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 65 of 103 63% 53 of 82 8 of 14 4 of 7 24 of 53 2 of 5 39 of 45
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 5 of 13 38% 3 of 11 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 15 of 20 75% 10 of 14 3 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 5 1 of 2 12 of 13
2 Viviane Araújo 12 of 29 41% 8 of 25 2 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 20 of 43 46% 15 of 33 4 of 7 1 of 3 15 of 36 1 of 3 4 of 4
3 Viviane Araújo 5 of 9 55% 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 30 of 40 75% 28 of 35 1 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 23 of 28
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 22, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Angelo slightly picks Tracy Cortez because he expects her grappling to wear down Viviane Araújo as the fight goes on, given Araújo's cardio fades and she is 38 years old. He acknowledges that Araújo is the better striker and has good takedown defense, but thinks Cortez can grind out a win. He also suggests the over on the round line is a safe bet, noting that women's fights often go over.

Angelo says a round line over is probably the safest bet, and mentions that parlaying all women's fights for overs is a good strategy.
"I am going to slightly pick Tracy Cortez. A round line over is probably the safest bet here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2025 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady thinks Cortez is the better striker and younger, and expects the fight to take place at distance where Cortez will outland Araújo. He notes Araújo has been outlanded at distance in recent fights and is 38 years old. Brady believes Cortez can also mix in takedowns. However, he is surprised by the -230 line, thinking it's too wide, but still picks Cortez to win by decision.

Cortez wins by decision
"I got to go Cortez. Cortez to win this fight by decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The host is leaning Cortez, believing her wrestling will break down Araújo and lead to dominant second and third rounds, winning on the scorecards.

win on scorecards
"I'm really leaning Cortez in this spot as I think her wrestling can really break out of Ujo down and this will look quite dominant for Cortez in these second and third rounds leading to her winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The host picks Tracy Cortez but is hesitant, expecting a close competitive decision. He notes that Cortez has crisper boxing while Araújo is more well-rounded, and that the fight is likely to be a 29-28 decision. He is tempted by Araújo's underdog odds but ultimately goes with Cortez, believing the judges will favor her in a close fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Tracy Cortez. I'm going to say if there's a close decision here, which a lot of women's MMA fights end up with, I don't see them not giving it to Tracy Cortez."
LOSS vs Rose Namajunas
Decision (unanimous) (49–46, 49–46, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rose Namajunas 1 96 of 180 53% 119 of 215 5 of 5 100% 0 0 6:36
Tracy Cortez 0 58 of 198 29% 85 of 233 2 of 5 40% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rose Namajunas 1 26 of 50 52% 30 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 43 27% 14 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Rose Namajunas 0 26 of 46 56% 27 of 48 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:23
Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 41 26% 12 of 42 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:16
3 Rose Namajunas 0 5 of 12 41% 15 of 31 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:47
Tracy Cortez 0 2 of 9 22% 8 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
4 Rose Namajunas 0 11 of 28 39% 17 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Tracy Cortez 0 12 of 44 27% 15 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
5 Rose Namajunas 0 28 of 44 63% 30 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
Tracy Cortez 0 21 of 61 34% 36 of 81 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rose Namajunas 96 of 180 53% 66 of 146 17 of 20 13 of 14 93 of 175 3 of 5 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 58 of 198 29% 31 of 162 14 of 17 13 of 19 52 of 189 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rose Namajunas 26 of 50 52% 16 of 39 4 of 5 6 of 6 26 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 43 27% 4 of 32 1 of 1 7 of 10 12 of 43 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rose Namajunas 26 of 46 56% 16 of 33 5 of 7 5 of 6 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 11 of 41 26% 7 of 36 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 40 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Rose Namajunas 5 of 12 41% 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 2 of 2 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 2 of 9 22% 1 of 7 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
4 Rose Namajunas 11 of 28 39% 8 of 25 2 of 2 1 of 1 11 of 27 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 12 of 44 27% 7 of 37 4 of 5 1 of 2 10 of 40 2 of 4 0 of 0
5 Rose Namajunas 28 of 44 63% 21 of 37 6 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 43 0 of 1 0 of 0
Tracy Cortez 21 of 61 34% 12 of 50 6 of 7 3 of 4 19 of 58 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 7, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Angelo picks Rose Namajunas, citing her superior striking and overall skill. He believes Tracy Cortez's path to victory is through wrestling, but doubts she can take Rose down for 25 minutes, especially since Cortez was training for a three-round fight and now faces five rounds at elevation. He notes that Rose was taken down four times by Amanda Ribas, but Ribas used clinch tosses rather than traditional shots, which are easier to defend. Angelo plans to have multiple bets on Rose.

Plans to have a few bets on Rose.
"I got to go rose rose should win this fight she should probably dominate this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Cody picks Rose Namajunas, citing her experience at altitude, full camp, and superior striking. He notes Tracy Cortez's inactivity and short notice, and believes Rose's wrestling defense and offensive takedowns will be key. He expects a decision win for Rose.

"I think Thug Rose is a very rightful favorite here at minus 200."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Daniel Vreeland picks Tracy Cortez to upset Rose Namajunas. He argues that Cortez has a legitimate wrestling background, which historically gives Rose trouble, and that Rose is a 'hot and cold' fighter who struggles when faced with adversity. He notes Cortez's 11-fight win streak and that she was already preparing for a fight next week, so short notice isn't a major issue. He also mentions Rose's age and mileage, suggesting she may be slowing down. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and prefers the plus 185 underdog.

"I'm gonna go ahead and pick Tracy Cortez to upset Rose nunas and surprise a lot of people."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Rose Namajunas has the striking advantage and the cardio edge, especially at altitude. Cortez will land some takedowns, but over 25 minutes, Namajunas will land better strikes and even some takedowns of her own late, cruising to a decision. The line is a bit wide, but the former champion reigns supreme.

Namajunas by decision; odds comment: line a bit wide, wouldn't hate an underdog shot on Cortez
"I think from there she should be able to cruise to a decision the line for my liking a little bit too wide again I wouldn't hate anybody taking an underdog shot on Cortez but I do think the former …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rose Namajunas

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing Rose's full camp, altitude advantage, and five-round experience. He points out that Cortez's wrestling has been neutralized by upper-echelon opponents and that Rose's scrambling ability will nullify takedowns. He sees Rose winning by decision.

"I agree she's a rightful favorite I'm picking her to win."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tracy Cortez 0 103 of 212 48% 116 of 225 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 77 of 206 37% 95 of 225 2 of 10 20% 0 0 3:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tracy Cortez 0 39 of 75 52% 39 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 24 of 63 38% 25 of 64 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
2 Tracy Cortez 0 28 of 61 45% 29 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 18 of 56 32% 32 of 71 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:52
3 Tracy Cortez 0 36 of 76 47% 48 of 88 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
Jasmine Jasudavicius 0 35 of 87 40% 38 of 90 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tracy Cortez 103 of 212 48% 63 of 164 16 of 23 24 of 25 91 of 198 12 of 14 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 77 of 206 37% 43 of 148 25 of 47 9 of 11 58 of 176 19 of 30 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tracy Cortez 39 of 75 52% 20 of 55 6 of 6 13 of 14 34 of 70 5 of 5 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 24 of 63 38% 14 of 47 6 of 12 4 of 4 20 of 57 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Tracy Cortez 28 of 61 45% 16 of 46 7 of 10 5 of 5 22 of 53 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 18 of 56 32% 11 of 40 5 of 13 2 of 3 14 of 48 4 of 8 0 of 0
3 Tracy Cortez 36 of 76 47% 27 of 63 3 of 7 6 of 6 35 of 75 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jasmine Jasudavicius 35 of 87 40% 18 of 61 14 of 22 3 of 4 24 of 71 11 of 16 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tracy Cortez vs. Jasmine Jasudavicius
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Cortez (-120), Jasudavicius (+100)

Round 1
Women’s flyweights step into the spotlight, as Cortez (10-1, 4-0 UFC) looks to build on a 10-fight winning streak and continue her climb on the 125-pound ladder. Jasudavicius (9-2, 3-1 UFC) steps into the Octagon on the strength of back-to-back victories over Gabriella Fernandes and Miranda Maverick. Jason Herzog serves as the referee. Jasudavicius turns down the glove tap, preferring to get right down to business. They paw at one another with jabs, as Cortez unleashes an inside leg kick and eats a counter right hand from the Canadian. Cortez connects in combination, setting up her attacks with the jab. Jasudavicius lands with a heavy outside leg kick and nearly spins around the Arizonan. Cortez’s hands look considerably sharper. Jasudavicius lands on occasion but lacks the necessary oomph to give her opponent pause. Cortez sneaks in a right hand over the top, fires more punches and finishes a combination with a clean left hook. Cortez shuts down a takedown attempt, threatens the neck and delivers a knee on the exit. Jasudavicius clinches but gets nowhere, and the flyweight separate. Cortez continues to connect in combination until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Cortez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortez

Round 2
Cortez re-asserts herself with a sharp one-two to start the middle stanza. She keeps a safe distance with a push kick to the body, scores with a leg kick and exits into open space. Cortez delivers a knee up the middle at close range and snaps the Canadian’s head sideways with a searing left hook. Jasudavicius needs a change of pace. She backs up Cortez with a pair of head kicks, then throw punches down the middle. Cortez goes headhunting and leaves herself open for a takedown. Jasudavicius takes top position midway through the second round. Cortez, however, wall walks to an upright position but allows her opponent to sneak behind her. Jasudavicius powers her way to another takedown and moves to half guard before chipping away with punches. Cortez builds a base again and gets back to her feet, bracing herself against the fence. Jasudavicius lingers in the clinch for too long and ends up with her back to the cage. They move into open space with 20 seconds left and exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius

Round 3
It looks to be anyone’s fight as Round 3 gets underway. Cortez connects with a right hand over the top and follows it with a leg kick. Jasudavicius presses forward, shoots on the hips and clinches. She works hard for a takedown, only to fail initially. The Canadian pesters Cortez with knees to the head in close quarters but allows her to move to the center of the cage. A clean one-two from Cortez backs up Jasudavicius, energizing the crowd with her efforts. They exchange in the center of the cage. Jasudavicius moves into clinch once more and connects with a knee on the break. Cortez spending too much time moving backward but continues to land, especially with her right hand. Fatigue becoming a factor for both women. Jasudavicius follows a knee with a partially blocked head kick and punches. Trash talk ensues after Jasudavicius gets away with pulling the hair in the center of the cage. Cortez keeps her hands busy in the waning seconds. This one could go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jasudavicius (29-28 Jasudavicius)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortez (29-29 Cortez)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortez (29-28 Cortez)

The Official Result
Tracy Cortez def. Jasmine Jasudavicius—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Angelo picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her superior wrestling credentials and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Tracy Cortez has poor striking and relies on takedowns, but Jasmine's wrestling defense is strong. He acknowledges Cortez could win if she initiates takedowns, but favors Jasmine's toughness and recent form. He has a half-unit bet on her at +100.

half unit bet at +100
"I like Jasmine to win I have a half a unit on her at plus one plus 100 much better odds now"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady picks Cortez but acknowledges the fight could be close. He believes Cortez has better striking and grappling, especially top control, and that Jasudavicius has been outlanded at distance. He expects a decision and notes the crowd support for Cortez. However, he is hesitant due to the close line and the possibility of a wrestling stalemate.

goes to decision
"give me Cortez to win this fight I'll take Cortez to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Cody picks Jasudavicius, noting her wrestling base, grit, and improvement. He points out Cortez's inactivity, weight issues, and vulnerability in recent fights. He believes Jasudavicius can stuff takedowns and outwork Cortez on the feet.

Cortez over 1.5 takedowns (Prize Picks)
"I got a women's MMA Underdog in the main event I'm gonna double up here and take a second one."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Daniel Levi picks Jasmine Jasudavicius, citing her relentless pace and 'dog' mentality. He worries about Tracy Cortez's long layoff and mental health issues, and believes Jasmine will push the pace and potentially break Cortez in the later rounds. Levi acknowledges Cortez's technical wrestling advantage but thinks Jasmine's pressure and volume can win two rounds if she avoids being neutralized.

"I think that Jasmine she's got that dog in her and I think she's gonna push that pace"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Cortez is one of the best wrestlers in the division, with excellent takedowns and top pressure. Jasudavicius is coming off an upset win over Miranda Maverick, but I think there's recency bias; Cortez is a step up in wrestling. Cortez should close the distance and impose her will, winning by decision. I've already bet her at minus 170 and think she's still a good spot up to that range.

"I've already pulled the trigger and I feel like she's still a good spot up to that minus uh minus 170 ish range I think she'll have a decided advantage in the grappling and we'll see it on full display …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

Paul leans toward Jasudavicius as an underdog, citing her wrestling, durability, and recent wins as a dog. He notes Cortez's inactivity, weight cut issues, and close fights. He likes Jasudavicius's pace and thinks she can outwork Cortez.

Cortez over 1.5 takedowns (Prize Picks)
"I'm kind of leaning towards the Canadian here in Jasmine."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jasmine Jasudavicius

The MMA Guru picks Jasmine Jasudavicius over Tracy Cortez, despite most people favoring Cortez. He believes Jasudavicius is more game, stronger, and tougher. He notes Cortez's split decision win over Justine Kish as a poor performance and highlights Jasudavicius's recent grappling dominance over Miranda Maverick. He expects Jasudavicius to win in the second and third rounds via stand-up fight.

"I'm gonna go with Jasmine just sudavicious over Tracy Cortez I think she's more game than Tracy Cortez"
WIN vs Melissa Gatto
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 274: Oliveira vs. Gaethje · May 07, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tracy Cortez 0 36 of 66 54% 70 of 102 2 of 3 66% 1 1 7:54
Melissa Gatto 0 30 of 73 41% 49 of 95 3 of 6 50% 1 1 3:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tracy Cortez 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 1 3:16
Melissa Gatto 0 7 of 20 35% 14 of 28 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
2 Tracy Cortez 0 9 of 23 39% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:35
Melissa Gatto 0 15 of 35 42% 25 of 47 2 of 3 66% 1 0 2:04
3 Tracy Cortez 0 16 of 27 59% 27 of 39 1 of 2 50% 1 0 3:03
Melissa Gatto 0 8 of 18 44% 10 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:35
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tracy Cortez 36 of 66 54% 25 of 51 6 of 9 5 of 6 14 of 37 2 of 2 20 of 27
Melissa Gatto 30 of 73 41% 25 of 61 3 of 7 2 of 5 27 of 69 0 of 1 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tracy Cortez 11 of 16 68% 8 of 13 0 of 0 3 of 3 5 of 7 0 of 0 6 of 9
Melissa Gatto 7 of 20 35% 6 of 17 0 of 0 1 of 3 7 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tracy Cortez 9 of 23 39% 4 of 16 4 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 4
Melissa Gatto 15 of 35 42% 13 of 30 2 of 4 0 of 1 14 of 33 0 of 1 1 of 1
3 Tracy Cortez 16 of 27 59% 13 of 22 2 of 3 1 of 2 4 of 12 1 of 1 11 of 14
Melissa Gatto 8 of 18 44% 6 of 14 1 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 16 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 30, 2022 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Angelo picks Tracy Cortez based on her wrestling, expecting her to grind out a decision. However, he admits his bet will be on Melissa Gatto to win inside the distance (decision no action), indicating a lack of full confidence in Cortez. He notes Cortez's layoff and Gatto's submission threat.

Bet on Melissa Gatto to win inside the distance (decision no action) at BetOnline
"she's the pick because of the wrestling my my bet is actually going to be on gatto so my pick is tracy cortez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady picks Tracy Cortez to win by decision, but he is hesitant. He acknowledges that Gatto has shown impressive striking and grappling, but her takedown defense is poor. Cortez will look to take Gatto down and control her, and Brady believes she will succeed in getting takedowns. However, Gatto is dangerous off her back with submissions, so Cortez will have to fight off submissions for 15 minutes. Brady thinks Cortez will win by controlling the fight on the ground, but he would not count out Gatto completely.

decision
"I'm gonna take cortez to take godo down in each and every round controller for the majority of the fight but god is going to most definitely have her moments this is a very interesting fight I like both fighters …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Cody picks Tracy Cortez, but emphasizes monitoring the scales. He notes Cortez's wrestling advantage and that she trains at Fight Ready MMA. Cody believes Cortez can get takedowns and stay on top, avoiding Gatto's submissions. He thinks Gatto's guard is active but Cortez's wrestling and pace will prevail. Cody is confident if Cortez makes weight.

"i tend to go with the wrestler so i'm gonna go with tracy cortez at home"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Daniel Levi leans toward Melissa Gatto as an underdog, citing her cleaner striking, power, and opportunistic submissions. He expects Cortez to have early wrestling success but thinks Gatto can survive and turn the fight in later rounds. He is worried about Cortez's top control but sees value in Gatto at plus money. He has not bet yet, noting he missed better lines.

Daniel considers a Gatto submission prop but has not bet. He mentions the line moved from +170 to +130.
"I do like the potential in Gato. It's just this fight is one of those that I truly believe is gonna come down to the wire and oftentimes in fights like that I like to take the dog."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The host picks Melissa Gatto but is not betting the fight due to volatility. He notes Cortez's strong wrestling but concerns about her weight miss and cardio. He highlights Gatto's impressive UFC performances, her ability to work from bottom, and her vicious striking. He expects Gatto to pressure, attack the body, and possibly find a submission or win via striking. He acknowledges Cortez will land takedowns but thinks Gatto will do enough to win.

"i am picking her to win she will be my prediction to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 4, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

Paul picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog at +147. He believes the fight is more 50/50 and that Gatto's grappling is legit, with an active guard and submission threats. He fears Cortez's wrestling could control the fight, but thinks Gatto's strength and jiu-jitsu could lead to a submission. Paul acknowledges the Arizona home cooking factor but took the dog shot.

"i took the underdog shot on melissa gatto uh plus 147."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 2, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Melissa Gatto

The MMA Guru picks Melissa Gatto as an underdog, citing her underrated skills, youth, and physical advantages. He notes Gatto has a reach advantage, submission ability, and finishing power, as seen in her wins over Carol Rosa and Sijara Eubanks. He criticizes Cortez for pitter-patter striking and lack of finishing ability. He predicts Gatto will win on the feet and then secure a submission, possibly an armbar in the second round.

"i'm going with the underdog melissa garter moving on up the card"
WIN vs Justine Kish
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tracy Cortez 0 66 of 112 58% 84 of 138 3 of 5 60% 1 0 6:26
Justine Kish 1 55 of 119 46% 72 of 140 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tracy Cortez 0 20 of 30 66% 34 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:11
Justine Kish 0 5 of 8 62% 12 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Tracy Cortez 0 22 of 44 50% 24 of 46 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
Justine Kish 0 29 of 57 50% 38 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
3 Tracy Cortez 0 24 of 38 63% 26 of 40 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:22
Justine Kish 1 21 of 54 38% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tracy Cortez 66 of 112 58% 40 of 78 19 of 24 7 of 10 39 of 73 7 of 7 20 of 32
Justine Kish 55 of 119 46% 30 of 86 8 of 14 17 of 19 50 of 111 4 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tracy Cortez 20 of 30 66% 18 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 25
Justine Kish 5 of 8 62% 3 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 1
2 Tracy Cortez 22 of 44 50% 9 of 26 8 of 10 5 of 8 19 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0
Justine Kish 29 of 57 50% 15 of 38 4 of 8 10 of 11 27 of 54 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Tracy Cortez 24 of 38 63% 13 of 24 9 of 12 2 of 2 17 of 29 2 of 2 5 of 7
Justine Kish 21 of 54 38% 12 of 42 4 of 6 5 of 6 19 of 51 1 of 2 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Big Brady picks Tracy Cortez to win by decision. He highlights Cortez's excellent wrestling (3 takedowns per 15 minutes) against Kish's poor takedown defense (55%). He notes that Kish has not faced a wrestler of Cortez's caliber and that Cortez should have no problem getting takedowns and controlling the fight. He expects a dominant decision with multiple takedowns and top control. He suggests the decision prop at -120 as a better value than the moneyline.

Decision prop at -120 suggested as better value
"give me cortez to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Cody believes Cortez will secure takedowns and grind Kish down. He notes Kish is raw, makes mistakes, and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Cortez's wrestling is her bread and butter and that she will win by decision. He is confident in the pick.

Cortez by decision at -120
"i think cortez goes out there secures the takedowns holds quiche down"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Daniel Levi picks Tracy Cortez, citing her disciplined style and takedown ability. He notes that Justine Kish is aggressive but leaves openings for takedowns, and Cortez will stay true to her game plan. Levi believes Cortez will take Kish down and control the fight, winning a unanimous decision. He also mentions that Cortez has a higher ceiling and is working with a good team.

unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with tracy cortez here uh be a unanimous decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Manpreet is confident Cortez will win by decision, citing her superior wrestling and top control. He notes that Kish is durable but has poor takedown defense and struggles off her back, as seen in the Felice Herrig fight. He believes Cortez will grind out a decision, making the decision prop a safe play.

Cortez by decision -150; over 2.5 rounds -345
"i like cortez here minus 150 on that decision prop i think that's a solid spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Kish has lost to grapplers and has not improved. He thinks Cortez's wrestling will be even better at 125 lbs. He expects a 29-28 decision for Cortez.

Cortez by decision
"i think cortez by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The MMA Guru picks Tracy Cortez to win by unanimous decision. He notes Cortez is younger, has a reach advantage, and a better record with good competition. He criticizes Justine Kish's recent losses and lack of impressive wins. He expects Cortez to secure takedowns at the end of rounds to win close rounds, possibly 30-27.

"i think cortez is going to go out there and get a decision win"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moraes vs. Sandhagen · Oct 11, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tracy Cortez 0 20 of 42 47% 66 of 109 3 of 5 60% 0 0 9:58
Stephanie Egger 0 10 of 32 31% 27 of 70 1 of 6 16% 0 1 2:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tracy Cortez 0 6 of 14 42% 13 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:43
Stephanie Egger 0 6 of 16 37% 12 of 32 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:34
2 Tracy Cortez 0 6 of 13 46% 31 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:16
Stephanie Egger 0 2 of 9 22% 7 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Tracy Cortez 0 8 of 15 53% 22 of 36 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:59
Stephanie Egger 0 2 of 7 28% 8 of 19 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tracy Cortez 20 of 42 47% 11 of 28 3 of 6 6 of 8 9 of 24 0 of 2 11 of 16
Stephanie Egger 10 of 32 31% 6 of 24 0 of 2 4 of 6 8 of 29 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tracy Cortez 6 of 14 42% 2 of 7 2 of 3 2 of 4 4 of 11 0 of 1 2 of 2
Stephanie Egger 6 of 16 37% 2 of 10 0 of 1 4 of 5 6 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Tracy Cortez 6 of 13 46% 3 of 8 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 7
Stephanie Egger 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 6 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Tracy Cortez 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 2 2 of 7 0 of 1 6 of 7
Stephanie Egger 2 of 7 28% 2 of 5 0 of 1 0 of 1 2 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Stephanie Egger

Big Brady picks the underdog Egger, citing her size advantage (3-inch height), legitimate ground game, and takedown ability. He notes Cortez has been reversed and put in bad spots on the mat, and that Egger is the bigger woman. He believes the fight should be closer to a pick'em and expects Egger to win by decision or submission.

Egger by submission or decision
"i'm going to go with stephanie egger to get a decision win and honestly i don't think a submission is off the table"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Daniel leans with Tracy Cortez, believing her wrestling is better suited for MMA than Egger's judo. He notes that pulling guard in MMA is risky against a wrestler. He expects Cortez to get takedowns and win a decision. However, he cautions that Cortez is still green and wouldn't bet heavily on her.

Daniel says he would stay away from betting at this price. He also mentions that Egger's best win is over Vanessa Mello.
"I'll lean with tracy cortez i think that wrestling is better than than uh than judo at least at least as far as mma is concerned"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Stephanie Egger

Egger has size, strength, and judo advantages; she can reverse clinch positions and control on the ground. Cortez is undersized and may struggle to get takedowns. Egger's cardio is a concern, but she should win the first two rounds and survive the third for a decision.

"i do like edgar here i think she's gonna be much better on the ground"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Tracy Cortez

The Guru picks Cortez, citing her better competition, experience, and record. He notes Egger is taking the fight on short notice and expects Cortez to grind out a unanimous decision by winning the second and third rounds.

unanimous decision
"tracy cortez versus stephanie egger we're gonna go with tracy cortez getting the job done here"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Angelo picks Erin Blanchfield despite considering Tracy Cortez's wrestling. He values Blanchfield's relentless pressure and scrambling ability. He notes Cortez is often at events and may not be training enough. He suggests over 2.5 rounds and a plus 3.5 bet on Cortez as possibilities.

over 2.5 rounds, plus 3.5 on Cortez
"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield. Tracy could absolutely get the takedowns here and work... Over two and a half is probably solid."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Big Brady leans Erin Blanchfield, believing her grappling advantage will be decisive. He notes Tracy Cortez has only 62% takedown defense and has been taken down multiple times by Rose Namajunas and others. Brady thinks Blanchfield's top control and submission skills are superior once the fight hits the ground, and predicts a decision win. He acknowledges the line is wide and a case can be made for Cortez.

decision
"I'm going to lean Blanchfield to get the done get it done by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Cody picks Blanchfield, noting that she has improved significantly since their first fight six years ago, especially her striking. He points out that Cortez has not evolved and has been inactive. Cody believes Blanchfield's wrestling and pressure will be too much, and she will win by decision. He also mentions that Blanchfield is younger and more motivated.

Blanchfield by decision
"Blanchfield's likely to take her down and give her all types of problems. And if she doesn't take her down, she's going to come forward, she's going to throw punches, she's going to try to outwork her."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Connor also leans toward Cortez, agreeing with Zane. He notes that Cortez is an inch taller than Blanchfield, which is surprising, and that Blanchfield's aggressive style may lead to her giving things away. He thinks Cortez can win out scrambles and that Blanchfield's one-size-fits-all approach may not work.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200.
"I'm going to go Cortez with you."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Daniel sees Blanchfield as the more evolved fighter since their first fight, with relentless pressure and a never-quit attitude. He notes that Cortez struggles when she is the nail, while Blanchfield has shown she can overcome adversity. He expects Blanchfield to avenge her loss and continue her rise.

"I'm still going to come out here and pick Aaron Blanchfield to win the rematch and avenge the loss against Tracy Cortez."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Lucrative James picks Erin Blanchfield to win, citing her superior grappling and submission skills. He believes Cortez will engage in wrestling, which plays into Blanchfield's strengths, as she is a better MMA grappler and dangerous from top position. He notes Blanchfield's ability to submit opponents from any position, as seen in her previous win over Cortez. He expects Blanchfield to win via submission or dominant decision.

"I'm going to pick Aaron Blanchfield to get the win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Blanchfield lands bigger shots on the feet and eventually lands takedowns for control and BJJ superiority. Cortez may be the better wrestler on paper, but Blanchfield gets her hand raised on the scorecards.

"I expect Blanchfield to get her hand raised as I think she'll be able to land bigger shots on the feet and eventually land those takedowns where she can get some good control and utilize her BJJ superiority."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Blanchfield's striking has improved the most. He notes that Cortez's takedown defense is not great and that Blanchfield will likely control the fight. Paul also mentions that Blanchfield has a home-field advantage and that the fight will likely go to decision. He likes the over 2.5 rounds prop.

over 2.5 rounds
"Blanchfield by decision minus 133 is not horrible."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Erin Blanchfield

The Guru picks Erin Blanchfield to win by 29-28 decision. He believes Blanchfield's grappling and physicality will be decisive, though she may lose the first round. He criticizes Cortez's focus on appearance (fake eyelashes) and notes Blanchfield's win over Rose Namajunas as a better benchmark. Blanchfield should mix in takedowns and control later rounds.

"I'm gonna go with Blanchfield getting this one done. I'm going to say that Blanchfield wins this by 2928 decision."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Tracy Cortez

Zane leans toward Cortez, noting that Cortez has a win over Blanchfield and is a very good scrambler and grappler. He thinks Blanchfield's aggressive style might play into Cortez's hands, as Cortez is comfortable in scrambles. However, he admits it's hard to get a grip on Cortez and that she is still developing.

Odds: Cortez opened +190, currently +200. Blanchfield opened -225, currently -235.
"I'm leaning Cortez."