Career Averages - Bo Nickal
Career Averages - Rodolfo Vieira
Bo Nickal
Rodolfo Vieira
Bo Nickal - Fight History
AJ is hesitant on picking Daukaus because Nickal is a freak athlete and elite wrestler. He mentions Daukaus is tricky out of southpaw but does not commit to a pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 1 | 77 of 121 | 63% | 94 of 143 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 24 of 64 | 37% | 31 of 71 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 37 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 38 of 59 | 64% | 46 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 17 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 1 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 77 of 121 | 63% | 56 of 93 | 13 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 64 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 24 of 64 | 37% | 7 of 38 | 6 of 12 | 11 of 14 | 23 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 28 of 46 | 60% | 22 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 38 of 59 | 64% | 27 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 14 of 39 | 35% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 11 of 16 | 68% | 7 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-225), Vieira (+185)
Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Nickal opens with a jab and then a left. He backs up and lands a front kick and a leg kick. They collide and Nickal lifts Viera and executes an emphatic slam. He unleashes a barrage of short punches to the head as Vieira strands. Nickal switches to knees and then lands an elbow that cuts the grappling ace. Vieira turns nickal into the fence and lands some close quarters offense of his own. Nickal frees himself and they’re back int the center of the Octagon. Nickal just misses a left. Vieira ducks under a high kick and Vieira shoots for a takedown against the fence. Nickal briefly threatens with a guillotine but Vieira is OK. Vieira stands and Nickal lands a hard elbow before they break. Vieira fires off a straight right .Nickal has a head kick blocked. A couple lefts land for the American. Vieira probes with a low kick. Nickal pumps a jab and then lands a front kick. Vieira keeps the pressure on , but Nickal is active with his striking, particularly left hands. Another left and a jab get through for Nickal. The round ends without further incident.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 2
Vieira opens with a solid right hand. Vieira catches Nickal coming forward with another rigth. Nickal steps in with a hard body kic. Nickal freezes Vieira with a combination, then lands another body kick. Nickal lunges in and lands another left hand. A couple jabs form Nickal snap Vieira’s head back. Nickal is winning exchanges, relying on combinations and superior hand speed. Vieira is bleeding profusely now. The Brazilian counters a kick with a right and then shoots for a takedown against the fence. Vieira gets an underhook and lands some punches before Nickal frees himself. Another straight left gets through for Nickal. Vieira lands a right as Nickal moves forward. Nickal rocks Vieira with a left and then finds the range on a short uppercut. Vieira is still in the fight, but he’s still bleeding and his eye is swelling shut. Nickal sprawls on a takedown with about 20 seconds left. Nickal lands some short punches and a knee as Vieira stands.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 3
Vieira lands a decent right during an initial exchange. Nickal pumps out his jab. Nickal lunges in with a left and then lands another left to the body. Another lunging left connects for the Penn State All American. Nickal with a hard inside leg kick. The crowd is getting restless with the pace of the bout, which is mostly one shot at a time — but that’s working well for Nickal. Nickal connects on a 1-2 and then seemingly out of nowhere,
he unleashes a left head kick that lands clean. An unconscious Vieira collapses in a heap on the canvas
, and Nickal knows he needs no follow-up offerings. Nickal climbs on the cage and flips off the crowd in celebration as he rebounds from his first career defeat in emphatic fashion.
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo Vieira via KO (Head Kick) R3 2:24
Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.
Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.
Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.
Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.
Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.
Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.
The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.
Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 1 | 22 of 32 | 68% | 91 of 104 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 8 of 21 | 38% | 24 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 43 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:52 |
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 17 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:00 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 1 | 17 of 22 | 77% | 48 of 55 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:17 |
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 6 of 15 | 40% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Reinier de Ridder | 22 of 32 | 68% | 9 of 18 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 15 | 15 of 17 | 0 of 0 |
| Bo Nickal | 8 of 21 | 38% | 2 of 13 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 14 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reinier de Ridder | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Bo Nickal | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Reinier de Ridder | 17 of 22 | 77% | 7 of 11 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Bo Nickal | 6 of 15 | 40% | 1 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: ODDS: Nickal (-325), de Ridder (+260)
Round 1
The co-main event of UFC on ESPN 67 features a couple of middleweight ground specialists who have yet to suffer defeat in the Octagon, but the similarities end there, as former ONE two-division champ de Ridder will pit his Brazilian jiu-jitsu chops against Nickal, perhaps the most accomplished amateur wrestler ever to cross over to mixed martial arts this early in his athletic prime. Something’s got to give, and Mike Beltran will be charged with keeping things legal. Both fighters come out in southpaw stance, and Nickal wastes no time in clinching and driving the taller man to the cage. After some pummeling for position, but no serious takedown attempts by either man, they break things off and move away from the fence. It’s “The Dutch Knight” who initiates the next clinch, appearing to contemplate a takedown of his own, but Nickal spins him against the fence. De Ridder reverses him again and throws a couple of short punches to the body. Nickal drops for a single-leg, picks the opposite ankle and grounds de Ridder with ease near the base of the fence. As de Ridder begins to stand, Nickal grabs a guillotine, closes his guard and tries to submit the submission specialist. There’s nothing doing there, and Nickal is forced to give up the choke. Worse, he is forced to give up top position to de Ridder, who sets up in half guard. Nickal gets up and de Ridder threatens to take his back. Nickal gets his hips out and uses a double-leg to stand, then ground de Ridder. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 de Ridder
Round 2
De Ridder comes forward fearlessly to open Round 2, throwing a knee up the middle and driving Nickal towards the fence. They clinch and de Ridder uses an overhook to hold the shorter man in place for a couple of left knees to the breadbasket. Nickal hauls de Ridder away from the fence, but de Ridder follows him and nails him with a big knee to the sternum. It takes a few seconds for de Ridder to realize how badly he has his man hurt, but he sticks with what brought him to the dance, driving more knees into the retreating American. Nickal staggers back to the fence and slides to his right as de Ridder follows, pouring on the punishment.
Nickal tries to come off the fence with an overhand left, but it misses badly and de Ridder keeps crushing him as he goes careening all the way across the cage. A final right knee to the jaw melts Nickal, who collapses to all fours at the base of the fence. With Nickal having taken about 20 unanswered strikes and making no move to defend himself, referee Beltran moves in to halt the onslaught.
Reinier de Ridder has taken care of business, putting away one of the UFC’s most highly touted prospects in shockingly one-sided fashion. Time will tell how this result ages, and where these two men’s career tracks diverge from here, but in the moment, this did not even look like the upset it supposedly was.
The Official Result
Reinier de Ridder def. Bo Nickal R2 1:53 via TKO (Knees)
Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to de Ridder's size and jiu-jitsu. He acknowledges that Nickal is the better wrestler but warns that de Ridder could get the first takedown and win on the ground. He decides not to bet on this fight despite the affordable odds, preferring to watch.
Big Brady is confident in Bo Nickal, expecting a knockout. He praises Nickal's fight IQ in the Paul Craig fight for not grappling with a dangerous submission artist. He notes that de Ridder will struggle to take Nickal down, and Nickal is the better striker with improving skills, better durability, and cardio. De Ridder has gassed out and quit in fights before. Brady predicts Nickal will knock out de Ridder in the second round.
Connor picks Nickal, but with low confidence. He acknowledges that de Ridder is a dangerous grappler with a swarming style, but believes Nickal's superior athleticism and wrestling could shut down de Ridder's game. Connor notes that de Ridder's defensive flaws on the feet make him vulnerable to Nickal's power, and if Nickal can land early, he may finish. However, he admits Nickal's inexperience and poor showing against Craig make this a risky pick.
Many are low on Nickal after the Paul Craig fight, but that was just for live striking experience. Here, he may mix in wrestling to keep de Ridder guessing. I expect Nickal to land a big shot and win by knockout.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by TKO in the first or second round. He believes Nickal's wrestling instincts and speed will be too much for Reinier de Ridder, who he thinks is stationary and vulnerable to straight shots. He notes that de Ridder struggled with Gerald Meerschaert and that Nickal will piece him up on the feet. He predicts Nickal will drop de Ridder early and finish him.
Zane picks de Ridder, drawing parallels to the GM3 fight where a less athletic but more experienced grappler outworked a younger wrestler. He notes that Nickal's lack of experience and poor performance against Paul Craig suggest he may struggle against de Ridder's pressure and scrambling. Zane worries that Nickal will get tired or panic if he can't impose his wrestling, leading to a late submission loss. However, he acknowledges Nickal's higher athletic ceiling could change the outcome.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 54 of 85 | 63% | 54 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 47 of 129 | 36% | 48 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 13 of 35 | 37% | 14 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 22 of 26 | 84% | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 21 of 48 | 43% | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 16 of 28 | 57% | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Paul Craig | 0 | 13 of 46 | 28% | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 54 of 85 | 63% | 24 of 50 | 13 of 16 | 17 of 19 | 54 of 85 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 47 of 129 | 36% | 21 of 93 | 14 of 23 | 12 of 13 | 47 of 129 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 16 of 31 | 51% | 5 of 17 | 3 of 5 | 8 of 9 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 13 of 35 | 37% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 22 of 26 | 84% | 10 of 13 | 8 of 9 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 21 of 48 | 43% | 11 of 33 | 8 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 16 of 28 | 57% | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Paul Craig | 13 of 46 | 28% | 6 of 36 | 2 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1100), Craig (+700)
Round 1
A pair of middleweights with 100% finish rates throw down in a clash that could find the winner with a number next to their name come Tuesday. Nickal (6-0, 3-0 UFC) has not encountered much opposition in the cage thus far as a pro, while Craig (17-8-1, 9-8-1 UFC) cannot say the same. Referee Dan Miragliotta is the third man in the Octagon for this one. There is no touch of gloves. Nickal starts out the initial aggressor, faking takedowns and tossing out a front kick. Nickal comes up short on a reaching left hand, and he changes stances to find another look. Craig absorbs a heavy calf kick, and he keeps his guard up to block a huge swinging left hand. Nickal chops at the front leg two more times as Craig walks him down, and Craig lets loose a body kick. Nickal absorbs a knee on the chin and a left hand, and a hard Craig leg kick makes Nickal take a funny step. Both men unload with power punches at the same time and glance off one another, and Nickal chambers and fires a huge right hand that misses. Craig checks a kick and fires off one that ricochets off the raised guard, and he has a second also blocked. Craig raises his leg as a body shield, and Nickal is unable to get his hands on him. Nickal reaches out with a side kick and a left hand, and Craig kicks him twice in response. Nickal wings another left hand, reaching out far and landing with a glancing blow. Craig checks a kick and slides back to not let Nickal get to him. Craig spins with a fake kick, and he slides back as Nickal aims a body shot. Craig pump-fakes several kicks until letting one loose, and Nickal doubles up on the left hook. Craig jabs his way in, and he starts talking to the unbeaten fighter. Nickal has one kick checked, and the second is not. Craig throws a kick that grazes the shoulder, and he rolls with a right hand that buzzes his hair. Nickal absorbs a right hand on the chin, which holds up well as he backpedals. Craig gets drilled with a left hook, and Nickal pitches another fastball that gives Craig brief pause. Craig again brings up a knee to intercept Nickal, and he chops at the front leg of his foe. Craig kicks his foe in the gloves, and the close round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Craig
Round 2
Between rounds, Craig tells his corner how much fun he is having in the cage, grinning from ear to ear. The two start off the round again, with Craig jabbing his way forward into a head kick that comes up short. Craig kicks with his other leg, and he almost falls over but manages to keep his balance. Nickal has a huge right hand come over the top, and he has a kick caught. Craig chatters to his adversary, and Nickal does not change his expression. Nickal scores at the end of a left hand, and Craig responds with a right hand and keeps on talking. Craig swats away Nickal’s outstretched hand, whipping a kick to the guard. Nickal aims a body shot and goes over the top with a left hand, and Craig’s eyes open up a bit wider. Craig blocks a body kick with his knee, and Nickal jabs him in the chest and blasts him with an overhand right. Craig swarms forward with two punches and a high front kick, and he flicks out a jab. Nickal scores a body shot, and he cannot quite block the body kick that comes back his direction. Craig just misses with an uppercut as Nickal ducks down, and he takes a left hand on the chin. Craig lets fly two kicks and eats a body shot on the way back, with Nickal swinging hard with his left hand. The Scot checks a kick and talks to his opponent, and after they shadowbox, he lets fly one more body kick. Nickal winds up with a left hand and thumps his man in the chin, and Craig’s responsive elbow misses by a tiny margin. Craig sticks out a left and then a right, and he launches a body kick that hammers into the wrestler’s arms. Nickal splits the guard with a left and is disciplined enough to block the body kick he knows his coming at him, and he shells up to defend against a second. Nickal steps in with a right hand and catches Craig with a second, and the two both smack one another before the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 3
The fighters meet in the middle to start the final frame, and Craig is the one marching forward first. After about 20 seconds, Craig tosses a half-hearted low kick, and Nickal counters him with a heavy right hand over the guard. Craig uses a side kick to push off, and he blocks a body kick. Nickal considers a takedown but abandons it, and he steps back as Craig’s leg whizzes past him. Nickal stands still and lets Craig walk around him, and he laughs and claps hands with his confused foe. Craig kicks the front leg twice, and he aims his shin at the chest after Nickal changes stances. Craig rifles a right hand down the pipe, and Nickal kicks him in the lead leg to respond. Nickal fakes a level change, and the audience showers the fighters with boos for their sparring match. Craig lets loose a high kick, and Nickal thanks him by clapping him on the side of the head with a right hook. Nickal skirts away, blocking a head kick and clipping Craig with a huge left hand. Craig grabs his eye, which starts swelling immediately and he backs up to the cage wall. Nickal corners him but picks his shots very carefully, and he does not engage with more than a right hook. Nickal springs away from a high kick and wings a left hand on the damaged eye, further hurting the Scot. Nickal kicks the front leg and dances away from danger, zipping in and out without much concern of reprisal. Craig jabs a few times, whiffs on a head kick and a front kick. Nickal rips a left to the body, and Craig starts pointing at him as the fans chant “overrated” at Nickal. Craig checks a kick, and Nickal draws his foot back uncomfortably. With seconds to spare, the Penn State wrestler sells out with haymakers, dinging Craig again and eating one in response. The disappointment of a fight comes to an end, and Nickal mimes swinging a golf club and goes over to talk to President-elect Donald Trump, who has been in the building since the end of the prelims.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (30-27 Nickal)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Nickal (29-28 Nickal)
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Paul Craig via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Angelo picks Bo Nickal, calling it a clear win. He notes Nickal's elite wrestling and that Paul Craig is dangerous on the ground but Nickal can grapple with anyone. He speculates Nickal might test his striking since Craig is not dangerous on the feet. He is unsure about betting due to uncertainty over method of victory.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal by first-round knockout, agreeing with Paul Craig that Nickal should keep the fight standing. He notes that Craig is chinny and has been knocked out multiple times, while Nickal has quick hands and power. He believes Nickal will follow Kyle Daukaus' blueprint and knock out Craig early. He also likes the under on 1.5 takedowns for Nickal on PrizePicks.
Cody picks Bo Nickal by submission, citing Nickal's elite wrestling and positional dominance. He notes Paul Craig is a one-trick pony with a suspect chin and weak wrestling, and that Nickal can take the fight wherever he wants. Cody expects Nickal to submit Craig, possibly with a rear-naked choke.
Connor also picks Nickal but is hesitant, acknowledging that Craig's submission game is dangerous. He thinks Nickal's wrestling and athleticism will allow him to scramble and wear Craig out, but Craig could catch him in a submission if Nickal gets too aggressive. Connor is interested in the fight as a test for Nickal.
Vreeland picks Craig as a big underdog because he sees value in Craig's submission threat. He notes Craig subbed Magomed Ankalaev and that Bo Nickal is still inexperienced in Jiu-Jitsu. Vreeland thinks Craig can catch a guillotine on one of Nickal's takedowns or take his back. He also points out that Nickal took over 8 minutes to finish Cody Brundage, suggesting he is not invincible.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, acknowledging Paul Craig's impressive submission wins but believing Nickal's wrestling credentials and grappling ability will neutralize Craig's game. He thinks Nickal can keep the fight standing or on the ground and avoid Craig's submissions. He calls it a 'boring' pick but sees Nickal as the clear favorite.
Fox picks Nickal, citing his athleticism, youth, and wrestling as a cheat code. He believes Craig has no chance against a wrestler of Nickal's caliber. Fox acknowledges the line is steep but is confident Nickal will win.
Lucrative James confidently picks Bo Nickal, the massive -1000 favorite. He believes Nickal's wrestling can dictate where the fight goes, and even if he shoots takedowns into Craig's guard, he can dominate from top position. He thinks Nickal is smart enough to keep it standing and knock Craig out, or slam him and finish on the ground. He notes Craig's dangerous submissions but feels Nickal will stay safe and win inside the distance, likely in round one.
The host expects Nickal to utilize his striking more effectively, looking for a knockout rather than going into Craig's dangerous guard. However, he notes the plus 200 submission prop on Nickal is worth considering. He officially picks Nickal by knockout.
Paul picks Bo Nickal by knockout, arguing Craig is chinny and has been knocked out in four of his last five losses. He expects Nickal to take Craig down, soften him with ground and pound, and eventually knock him out as Craig tires. Paul likes the under 1.5 rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal, expecting a first-round KO. He acknowledges Paul Craig's submission threat but believes Nickal's wrestling and striking will overwhelm Craig. He notes Nickal's early finishes and thinks Craig's limited striking will be exposed.
Zane picks Nickal but is not confident, noting that Nickal is raw and was coached through basic grappling in his last fight. He thinks Nickal's athleticism and scrambling ability will wear out Craig, but Craig's submission threat is real. Zane finds the fight interesting because it's a genuine test for Nickal.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 45 of 59 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 7:25 |
| Cody Brundage | 0 | 4 of 12 | 33% | 33 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 24 of 28 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:25 |
| Cody Brundage | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 21 of 31 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Cody Brundage | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 17 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 8 of 13 | 61% | 6 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Cody Brundage | 4 of 12 | 33% | 1 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 5 of 7 | 71% | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Cody Brundage | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 |
| Cody Brundage | 2 of 6 | 33% | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-2100), Brundage (+1100)
Round 1
The main card opens up with the widest discrepancy on the betting lines tonight by a mile. As a prohibitive -1400, Nickal (5-0, 2-0 UFC) is largely expected to walk through the tough but outmatched-on-paper Brundage (10-5, 3-4 UFC). There are many questions that could be answered, as the unbeaten four-time DI NCAA All-American has never before competed beyond the three-minute mark in an MMA match. Whether this match lasts 15 seconds or 15 minutes, referee Chris Tognoni is on the call and ready for action. The underdog offers a glove touch, but Nickal wants nothing to do with it. Instead, Nickal fakes shooting for a takedown almost immediately. Brundage is well out of the way, and he fires off a flying head kick and a jump knee. Brundage lands a hard right hand to surprise the unbeaten fighter, and Nickal responds with a power punch and a takedown attempt. Brundage rolls through to get back to his feet, and Nickal presses him hard against the fence. Nickal scoops Brundage up and slams him down, and Brundage pops right back up without batting an eye. Nickal succeeds to get a mat return, dropping Brundage down to his knees, but Brundage stands up before Nickal can get hooks in. Nickal pushes down his full body weight to trap Brundage down on the ground, and he slithers a hook in and sneaks his arm under the chin for a second. Brundage turns his head to the side to thwart the choke, and Nickal keeps one arm on the chin to threaten. Brundage hand-fights to stop the choke from landing, and Nickal elects to just brute force squeeze his head like a nutcracker. Brundage pushes off enough to get space, and Nickal steps over to full mount while claiming a guillotine. Nickal sits up and has Brundage’s left arm trapped beneath his legs, and he starts beating on Brundage with elbows. Brundage times a shifting Nickal to turn to his knees and lean against the wall, and Nickal stays on him without a hook in fishing for a choke. Nickal gets a hook in from behind, and Brundage keeps two-on-one wrist control to stop any submission danger. Nickal bops him in the face with feeble punches, and Brundage laughs him off as the crowd gives it up for him. Brundage maintains control on the wrist and signals for Tognoni to let him up, and he rides out the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 2
As soon as the round begins, Tognoni calls time to remove some debris from the Octagon. The fighter begin, and Brundage walks Nickal down and lines up an overhand right. Nickal throws a high kick from an odd angle, and when he tries to transition to a takedown, Brundage slings him mightily to the ground. Brundage goes after him and tries to lay into him with strikes, but Nickal recovers, shoots and completes a takedown. Brundage turns to his side as he tries to stand, and Nickal lands sporadic ground-and-pound as he moves into half guard. The crowd gets restless again at Nickal wrestling so heavily, but he ignores it and passes the full mount. Brundage throws punches from his back, and Nickal presses his chest down to set up an arm-triangle choke. Nickal lets it go to land a punch, and he hunts for elbows while Brundage holds onto his face. Nickal postures up and slams down some ground-and-pound, forcing Brundage to turn around and give up his back. Brundage finds himself in immediately submission danger, with Nickal latching onto a rear-naked choke grip that is not yet beneath the chin. Brundage fights off the choke, and Nickal switches arms and slithers the forearm under the chin. Brundage knows he has been outhustled here, and he surrenders before the choke puts him out. Nickal releases the grip on the tap, and he stands up and starts booing himself while putting both thumbs down. He appears not impressed with his own performance.
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Cody Brundage R2 3:38 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Angelo is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling the -2400 odds correct with 96% implied probability. He notes Brundage has power and could land a lucky shot, but Nickal's wrestling is overwhelming. He advises against parlaying Nickal due to poor value and suggests under 1.5 rounds as a better bet.
Cody is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, noting his elite wrestling and the low level of competition he's faced. He points out that Brundage has poor fight IQ, citing his pulling guard on Ralek Gracie when he was winning, and his tendency to gas out. Cody mentions Brundage has been taken down by Nick Maximov and has no dynamic striking. He expects Nickal to dominate and finish inside the distance, likely by TKO or submission, and thinks the fight won't go past the first round and a half.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal, noting that even high-IQ Cody Brundage plays into Nickal's strengths. He mentions that Brundage's path to victory is narrow, possibly a knockout, but that Nickal's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are world-class. He suggests that if betting Brundage, one should take a KO prop at high odds rather than the moneyline.
Daniel Vreeland picks Bo Nickal to win, but notes he is not laying 25 units to win one. He acknowledges Nickal's wrestling advantage and expects a first-round finish, but warns that Brundage has knockout power and could pull off an upset. Vreeland is curious to see Nickal past round one but believes he will dominate.
Jeff Fox picks Bo Nickal, agreeing with Vreeland. He notes that if he had $100 to bet and didn't want to lose it, he'd bet Nickal. He mentions that Brundage could knock Nickal out, but that's a low-probability event, and that Nickal is the safe pick.
Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He says it is what it is but it's good to see Bo Nickal continue his rise. He mentions Cody Brundage has cashed tickets for him in the past. No prediction is given.
Nickal will get to his takedown quickly and rain down big shots from top position for a TKO win. Brundage is the toughest opponent Nickal has faced but it won't be enough.
Paul sees this as a clear mismatch. He notes that Nickal hasn't faced any adversity yet, so his chin and resolve are untested, but Brundage is not the guy to test them. Paul calls Brundage 'Cody Bumd' and points out his poor performances, including getting knocked out by Alexei Kunchenko and being outgrappled by Nick Maximov. He believes Nickal will easily take Brundage down and finish him. Paul says the moneyline is too short to bet, but everyone will take Nickal inside the distance.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round finish, calling Cody Brundage a sacrificial lamb. He criticizes Brundage's recent wins as flukes and believes Nickal is superior everywhere. He notes Nickal's high-pressure experience and predicts a rear-naked choke or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Val Woodburn | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 1 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Val Woodburn | 0 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Val Woodburn | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Val Woodburn | 2 of 9 | 22% | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-2400), Woodburn (+1200)
Round 1
On quite short notice, this middleweight main card opener has changed. No longer squaring off with Tresean Gore, Nickal (4-0, 1-0 UFC) now will meet promotional newcomer and Combat Night staple Woodburn (7-0, 0-0 UFC). Someone’s 0 has got to go, but based on the incredible -1600 line (or higher) in favor of the Penn State wrestler, the consensus expectation is that Nickal will proceed unscathed. This sport is a wild one, and anything truly can happen. Whether it is a monumental upset or smooth sailing, referee Chris Tognoni will proceed over the whole kit and caboodle. The 185ers do not bother to touch gloves, and they work their way towards one another. Nickal feints and fakes takedowns, and Woodburn chambers a right hand. Woodburn whiffs on a huge right hand, and Nickal crashes forward but disengages before he eats a shot. Nickal connects with a right hand, and Woodburn’s bell is rung. Nickal does not think to change levels, and instead times a blistering left hand that catches Woodburn right on the chin. The wrestler unloads with an uppercut, knocking Woodburn clean off his feet. As Woodburn falls to the ground, Nickal considers hammering the nail but Tognoni is already rushing between them to wave the fight off. Even though Nickal was largely expected to blow through this challenge, he still managed to make a statement by dispatching Woodburn handily with strikes. At 5-0, Nickal is definitely one to watch in the middleweight category.
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Valentine Woodburn R1 0:38 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo is extremely confident in Nickal, saying he will dominate and finish. He dismisses the idea that Nickal only won his last fight due to a nutshot. He notes Nickal's wrestling pedigree and that Woodburn is a regional wrestler who didn't use wrestling until his last fight. He advises against parlaying Nickal due to minus-1400 odds, but suggests looking for prop bets like first-round submission.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission. He notes that Nickal is a phenomenal wrestler with dangerous grappling, and he expects him to take Woodburn down and choke him out. He questions what happens if Woodburn survives the first round, but believes Nickal will finish early. He comments that the odds (-1400) are wide but that Nickal should win easily. He says we will learn nothing about Nickal from this fight.
Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance. He notes Nickal's wrestling is elite and he will take Woodburn down and submit him quickly. He mentions Woodburn is a short-notice replacement with no path to victory. He says the moneyline is unplayable at -2500 but inside distance is the way to go.
Connor picks Nickal, emphasizing that Woodburn's poor striking at range and tendency to crowd himself will make him easy to take down. He notes that Woodburn's only comfortable punching range is in the clinch, which is exactly where Nickal wants to be. Connor is critical of the odds but still sees Nickal as a clear winner.
Daniel Levi picks Nickal, emphasizing his elite wrestling pedigree and finishing ability. He notes that Woodburn is a short, stocky fighter with a good base for takedown defense, but that Nickal's level of wrestling is too high. Levi expects Nickal to finish Woodburn in the first round, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound. He respects Woodburn for taking the fight on short notice but believes this is a mismatch.
James thinks Bo Nickal will destroy Val Woodburn in round one, but he criticizes the line making Nickal the biggest favorite in UFC history. He argues that we don't know Nickal's chin or cardio, so the line is too wide. He considers a small bet on Woodburn for value but ultimately expects Nickal to win easily.
Nickal is a high-level wrestler with improving MMA skills, while Woodburn is a short-notice replacement with limited gas tank and mediocre skills. Nickal will take Woodburn down early and secure a submission. The under 1.5 rounds is a very chalky but confident play.
Paul agrees Nickal wins easily. He notes Woodburn is a regional fighter with no chance. He says Nickal will take him down and submit him. He mentions the significant strikes prop at 10.5 might be high because Nickal usually finishes quickly with few strikes.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by submission (rear-naked choke). He acknowledges Woodburn's guillotine threat but believes Nickal's superior wrestling and preparation will overcome it. He notes that Woodburn was taken down by Brian Battle, and Nickal is a much better wrestler. He suggests a small bet on Woodburn by finish due to the odds.
Zane picks Nickal easily, noting that Woodburn's crude technique and reliance on the clinch for punching will play into Nickal's wrestling strength. He acknowledges that Nickal is still raw as an MMA striker but believes his wrestling advantage is overwhelming. Zane warns that Nickal's odds are too high for a prospect, but he still expects a win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 3 of 6 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 2 | 0 | 2:30 |
| Jamie Pickett | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Jamie Pickett | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-1400), Pickett (+850)
Round 1
The main card of UFC 285 begins with the hotly anticipated debut of elite college wrestler Nickal (3-0, 0-0 UFC), who is entering only his fourth pro fight with a combined two minutes and 27 seconds of fight time under his belt not counting his amateur outings. He meets Pickett (13-8, 2-4 UFC), whose last trip to the cage lasted nearly 10 minutes, or nearly twice much time as Nickal’s pro and amateur career combined. Nickal comes in as a nonsensical favorite of -2000 or above in some books, and referee Keith Peterson will be the one to clock them in despite that nonsense. The middleweights do not touch gloves, as they would rather get right to it. Nickal leaps forward, jumps in the air with a kick that misses, and he hits the floor. Nickal shoots for a takedown, and Pickett stuffs it on the first try. Nickal shoves him against the wall and knees him a few times, and Pickett grimaces from an apparent knee to the groin. The foul uncalled, Nickal throws his man to his knees, and searches for a possible brabo choke, only to release it to circle around and take the back. Nickal grabs hold of a rear-naked choke, and he changes it to a neck crank but lets it go to look for another opening. Nickal jumps to the side, and he wraps his left arm beneath Pickett’s chin and squeezes with an arm-triangle choke. Pickett talks to Nickal the whole time while the submission is being attempted, and Pickett is able to survive the first strong squeeze. Pickett defends with his left arm between the neck and the choke, and Nickal adjusts and fastens it tighter. Pickett stays composed and calm as Nickal keeps squeezing, and Pickett pushes off the hip and stays with it. The wrestler keeps the vice-like grip as tight as can be, and he forces Pickett to finally surrender, thereby boosting his young record to 4-0 with four finishes on his ledger. Nickal has made good on his promotional debut, and the next question will soon be what the UFC does with him next with all the hype surrounding him. The victorious Nickal claims in his post-fight interview that he will be not only the champion, but the top pound-for-pound fighter in the sport.
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Jamie Pickett R1 2:54 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo is certain Bo Nickal will win, stating he will wrestle immediately and finish the fight. He notes that the odds are extremely high and there is no value, but Nickal is the closest thing to a guarantee in the sport. Angelo advises against betting due to the poor odds.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Bo Nickal, calling him a next-level wrestler with power and submission ability. He notes Jamie Pickett has poor takedown defense and has been submitted before. He predicts a first-round submission for Nickal, welcoming him to the UFC.
Cody is confident Nickal wins inside the distance, likely by submission. He thinks Nickal will overwhelm Pickett early and finish him in the first round. He recommends under 1.5 rounds and says Nickal ends up on parlay tickets.
Connor is extremely confident Nickal wins, calling it a soft touch. He notes Pickett is a good athlete but easily cowed by superior athletes, with poor body language and a tendency to crumble. He expects Nickal to finish via TKO or submission, though Pickett may avoid submission briefly.
Jacob agrees that Bo Nickal will win, but questions whether Nickal will go for a quick takedown or try to show off his striking. He notes that Jamie Pickett folds under pressure and that this matchup was made for a reason. Jacob sees no value in betting on Nickal at these odds.
Nickal is a decorated wrestler with good submissions. Pickett is on a two-fight losing streak and likely fighting for his job. Nickal will get a takedown and submit him in the first round. Look for early finishing props.
Paul agrees Nickal will win easily but notes the odds are too short to bet the moneyline. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds is heavily juiced and considers a small sprinkle on the over as a contrarian play, but ultimately expects a quick finish.
The MMA Guru picks Bo Nickal to win by first-round submission, likely a rear-naked choke. He criticizes Pickett's lack of quality wins and believes Nickal's wrestling will be too much.
Zane agrees, calling Pickett a 'gentle giant' who crumbles under pressure. He notes Pickett was submitted by Kyle Daukaus and TKO'd by Jordan Wright, so a finish is probable. He sees no path for Pickett.
Rodolfo Vieira - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 1 | 40 of 70 | 57% | 58 of 93 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 1 | 0 | 6:24 |
| Eric McConico | 0 | 54 of 102 | 52% | 73 of 123 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 1 | 10 of 13 | 76% | 15 of 19 | 4 of 9 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 3:15 |
| Eric McConico | 0 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 19 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Eric McConico | 0 | 20 of 46 | 43% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 16 of 32 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:21 |
| Eric McConico | 0 | 23 of 42 | 54% | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 40 of 70 | 57% | 15 of 43 | 11 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 35 of 64 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Eric McConico | 54 of 102 | 52% | 42 of 87 | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 49 of 95 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 10 of 13 | 76% | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Eric McConico | 11 of 14 | 78% | 5 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 20 of 33 | 60% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 17 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Eric McConico | 20 of 46 | 43% | 16 of 42 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 42 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 10 of 24 | 41% | 3 of 16 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 10 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Eric McConico | 23 of 42 | 54% | 21 of 38 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-225); McConico (+180)
Round 1
It’s grappler vs. not-so-grappler as the middleweights remain in center stage. “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira (11-4, 6-4 UFC) is coming off his first knockout loss, a head kick to Bo Nickal last November. Earlier in that same night, McConico (10-4-1, 1-2 UFC) had his block knocked off by Baisangur Susurkaev. Someone will shake off the sting of their past crushing defeat, and they have three rounds or fewer to get that done. Referee Kerry Hatley will keep tabs on the middleweights. The fighters decide to touch gloves before testing their mettle.
McConico dips and ducks his way into attack, and when he tosses out a body kick, Vieira slings back a right hand behind the ear that hurts him badly and sets him down. Vieira dives after him and takes hold of a choke attempt, but the slippery McConico is able to get out of the first attempt. Vieira looks to take the back standing, and he is turned around and slides off. When he hits his seat, “The Black Belt Hunter” grabs hold of an armbar. McConico wall-walks with his toes all the way around to contort his arm in a funny direction, but his joints hold up as he takes the pressure off his elbow and gets out of the dangerous predicament. McConico totally escapes, and Vieira follows right after him to complete a double. McConico sits up and uses the fence as his ally to stand back up again, all while keeping the wire as a way to take any submission leverage off of him. Vieira stays tightly pressed against McConico, constantly threatening with something.
Vieira considers dropping to his knees to hit another takedown, and he transitions from a double to a single and lifts McConico’s right leg up between his own legs. McConico stays balanced while hopping around the cage, but the relentless Brazilian drags him to the floor with one hook around the left side. McConico stands up with Vieira clinging to him, and he scrapes the ADCC gold medalist off of him. When separated, McConico offers up a jab, a head kick and a front kick that makes him stumble back. Vieira walks him down without concern, and with his hands down, he takes two big punches on the sides of the face. Vieira tanks them and goes to the body, with McConico throwing back distance-keeping kicks. Vieira shoots when seeing a kick is coming, pressing McConico to the wall and scooping him up to set him down gingerly. “The Black Belt Hunter” rides out the round on top.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
Gloves are touched, with Vieira strutting to the center of the cage while pump-faking his way forward. Vieira pitches a naked leg kick that gets him countered over the top, with McConico just missing with a left hand as they consider grappling. McConico grabs a clinch and is wobbled back from a right elbow, and he gathers his thoughts and produces a shiner under Vieira’s left eye with his punches. They take turns going after one another, with McConico gaining the upper hand with a sharp one-two and a short flurry behind it. Vieira takes all of the punches on the jaw, head movement practically nonexistent, but he does not appear fazed. McConico steps through what comes back his way, with Vieira backing off constantly and struggling to fight back. Vieira absorbs a one-two and offers one back, following one punch with a left to the body and a takedown shot.
McConico puts his back immediately to the wire to keep his balance, with Vieira content to lean on him and control him. The Brazilian grinds on his adversary, offering a trip or two while McConico keeps his footing the whole time. McConico leans his head against the fencing, with Vieira stomping on his toes and kicking at the back of his calf. McConico puts his back to the cage again, punching his way out but not landing anything of note while doing so. McConico clips Vieira with a right hook, and he parries a right coming back to his ribs. The round concludes with McConico missing on a pair of big swings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McConico
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 McConico
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 McConico
Round 3
Vieira is sucking wind between rounds, but he comes out of his corner fresh enough while offering a glove touch. McConico pecks with his jab while Vieira chips at the lead leg with kicks. Vieira tries to hand-fight, but it leaves him wide open for one-twos fired at his nose. Vieira bounces off the cage when retreating, and he resets and walks into another straight right hand down the pipe. Vieira kicks low and fakes a takedown, with McConico not biting on it and instead feeding the Brazilian a steady diet of jabs. Vieira gets tired of this same pattern, and he rushes forward to engage a clinch.
As Vieira remains tight, the round likely still quite close, he slips his legs between and around McConico’s to take the fight down. When Vieira sells out for it, McConico pancakes him and pushes “The Black Belt Hunter” to his seat. McConico frames off with elbows on the forehead, while Vieira is on his side hoping to reverse his fortunes. Vieira fights his way up, elbowing McConico sharply, and McConico throws back as hard as he can. Vieira shakes it off and digs a right hand to the side. McConico walks Vieira down, boxing him up as Vieira is out of ideas and not swinging back. The American ends the fight with a head kick and raises his arms in the air, very possibly staging the sizeable upset while surviving the danger of Vieira in Round 1.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McConico (29-28 McConico)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 McConico (29-28 McConico)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 McConico (29-28 McConico)
The Official Result
Eric McConico def. Rodolfo Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Rodolfo Vieira but is hesitant, noting that Vieira is a world-class BJJ competitor but doesn't like to be hit and can turn his head away. He acknowledges that Eric McConico could give Vieira a hard time on the feet and that Vieira might shoot desperate takedowns. He says he will stay away from betting on this fight because it could get weird fast, but ultimately picks Vieira as the better MMA fighter and grappler.
Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira over Eric McConico. He is very low on McConico, citing low volume, poor chin, and susceptibility to takedowns. He believes Vieira will easily take him down and submit him in the first round, calling it Vieira's easiest fight in years.
Connor agrees that Vieira should win easily, calling McConico a 'house gatekeeper' who doesn't belong in the UFC. He points out that McConico has no technical ability and fights scared, while Vieira has the strength and grappling to finish him. Connor also notes that the betting line is accurate and there's no edge.
James picks Vieira, believing his elite grappling will overwhelm McConico. He notes McConico's struggles on bottom and predicts a first-round submission via arm triangle.
Vieira is a high-level BJJ black belt who has improved his striking, but he is 36 and has a questionable gas tank. McConico is well-rounded but makes mistakes on the feet that will allow Vieira to get takedowns. Vieira should eventually get the fight to the ground and find a submission, but the -225 price is steep.
Zane believes Rodolfo Vieira should easily win this fight, as Eric McConico is a poor fighter with no future in the UFC. He notes that Vieira has a massive strength advantage and should be able to take McConico down and submit him, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. Zane emphasizes that McConico lacks technical ability, assertiveness, and has never beaten a quality opponent.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 1 | 77 of 121 | 63% | 94 of 143 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 1:28 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 24 of 64 | 37% | 31 of 71 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 28 of 46 | 60% | 37 of 60 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:05 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 0 | 38 of 59 | 64% | 46 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 17 of 42 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:28 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 1 | 11 of 16 | 68% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bo Nickal | 77 of 121 | 63% | 56 of 93 | 13 of 19 | 8 of 9 | 64 of 103 | 7 of 9 | 6 of 9 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 24 of 64 | 37% | 7 of 38 | 6 of 12 | 11 of 14 | 23 of 63 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bo Nickal | 28 of 46 | 60% | 22 of 38 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 | 16 of 29 | 6 of 8 | 6 of 9 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 7 of 19 | 36% | 2 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Bo Nickal | 38 of 59 | 64% | 27 of 45 | 7 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 37 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 14 of 39 | 35% | 4 of 24 | 4 of 8 | 6 of 7 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bo Nickal | 11 of 16 | 68% | 7 of 10 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 3 of 6 | 50% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Nickal (-225), Vieira (+185)
Round 1
Dan Miragliotta is the referee. Nickal opens with a jab and then a left. He backs up and lands a front kick and a leg kick. They collide and Nickal lifts Viera and executes an emphatic slam. He unleashes a barrage of short punches to the head as Vieira strands. Nickal switches to knees and then lands an elbow that cuts the grappling ace. Vieira turns nickal into the fence and lands some close quarters offense of his own. Nickal frees himself and they’re back int the center of the Octagon. Nickal just misses a left. Vieira ducks under a high kick and Vieira shoots for a takedown against the fence. Nickal briefly threatens with a guillotine but Vieira is OK. Vieira stands and Nickal lands a hard elbow before they break. Vieira fires off a straight right .Nickal has a head kick blocked. A couple lefts land for the American. Vieira probes with a low kick. Nickal pumps a jab and then lands a front kick. Vieira keeps the pressure on , but Nickal is active with his striking, particularly left hands. Another left and a jab get through for Nickal. The round ends without further incident.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 2
Vieira opens with a solid right hand. Vieira catches Nickal coming forward with another rigth. Nickal steps in with a hard body kic. Nickal freezes Vieira with a combination, then lands another body kick. Nickal lunges in and lands another left hand. A couple jabs form Nickal snap Vieira’s head back. Nickal is winning exchanges, relying on combinations and superior hand speed. Vieira is bleeding profusely now. The Brazilian counters a kick with a right and then shoots for a takedown against the fence. Vieira gets an underhook and lands some punches before Nickal frees himself. Another straight left gets through for Nickal. Vieira lands a right as Nickal moves forward. Nickal rocks Vieira with a left and then finds the range on a short uppercut. Vieira is still in the fight, but he’s still bleeding and his eye is swelling shut. Nickal sprawls on a takedown with about 20 seconds left. Nickal lands some short punches and a knee as Vieira stands.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nickal
Round 3
Vieira lands a decent right during an initial exchange. Nickal pumps out his jab. Nickal lunges in with a left and then lands another left to the body. Another lunging left connects for the Penn State All American. Nickal with a hard inside leg kick. The crowd is getting restless with the pace of the bout, which is mostly one shot at a time — but that’s working well for Nickal. Nickal connects on a 1-2 and then seemingly out of nowhere,
he unleashes a left head kick that lands clean. An unconscious Vieira collapses in a heap on the canvas
, and Nickal knows he needs no follow-up offerings. Nickal climbs on the cage and flips off the crowd in celebration as he rebounds from his first career defeat in emphatic fashion.
The Official Result
Bo Nickal def. Rodolfo Vieira via KO (Head Kick) R3 2:24
Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.
Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.
Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.
Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.
Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.
Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.
The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.
Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 89 of 159 | 55% | 96 of 169 | 1 of 14 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 3:14 |
| Tresean Gore | 0 | 41 of 114 | 35% | 50 of 125 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 15 of 26 | 57% | 19 of 30 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
| Tresean Gore | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 13 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 36 of 66 | 54% | 36 of 66 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:19 |
| Tresean Gore | 0 | 14 of 45 | 31% | 15 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 41 of 73 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:46 |
| Tresean Gore | 0 | 16 of 44 | 36% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 89 of 159 | 55% | 51 of 118 | 22 of 25 | 16 of 16 | 87 of 155 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Tresean Gore | 41 of 114 | 35% | 22 of 88 | 4 of 10 | 15 of 16 | 41 of 114 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 15 of 26 | 57% | 7 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 13 of 23 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Tresean Gore | 11 of 25 | 44% | 3 of 15 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 11 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 36 of 66 | 54% | 23 of 51 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 36 of 65 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Tresean Gore | 14 of 45 | 31% | 11 of 38 | 0 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 38 of 67 | 56% | 21 of 50 | 10 of 10 | 7 of 7 | 38 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tresean Gore | 16 of 44 | 36% | 8 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 6 | 16 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-225); Gore (+185)
Round 1
Aiming to go on the run everyone expected out of him, Vieira (10-3, 5-3 UFC) will gladly accept a large percentage of his foe’s purse for missing weight by three and a half pounds. Unable to clock in at the middleweight cap, Gore (5-3, 2-3 UFC) may find himself at a serious disadvantage going against a lights-out grappler like “The Black Belt Hunter.” Necks may be threatened early and often in this preliminary contest, with referee Mark Smith telling them to get going as they touch ‘em up. They touch gloves despite the weight offense.
Vieira resides in the center of the Octagon jabbing the body, and Gore is warned for outstretched fingers. A jab from Vieira gets Gore’s attention, and he lands another and a low kick to follow. Gore lets loose his own hard calf kick, and he wings a right hand that bangs into the guard. Vieira shoots in for a single, pushing the heavier man to the wall but not putting him down. Rather than stick around in the clinch, Vieira pushes off and takes a right hand on the outside from his foe. Vieira shoots for another single, and Gore shuts it down in the open cage. Both men trade sharp jabs, and the Brazilian races forward to pursue a double. Like the other two, Gore stops it, so Vieira doubles down with a body lock as he tries to muscle “Mr. Vicious” to the floor. Gore posts off his hand to stay afloat, and he escapes yet again.
Gore turns his hips into an especially powerful low kick, and he doubles up with a kick to the same spot. Vieira sprints forward, clasping his hands beneath the backside of his opponent and securing the takedown he has sought for several minutes now. Gore hits the floor, and Vieira sits on top of him in a partial mount position with Gore sitting straight up against the wall. Gore pulls one leg out, and then wriggles the second out to pop back to his feet. Vieira clings to him from behind while standing, and Gore hand-fights to break the grip around him. Vieira jams a knee to the body, and Gore answers this and pushes away to get some space. Vieira probes him with jabs, and Gore swings harder with his responses. Vieira connects with a hefty leg kick, countering one flying his way with a right hand. The Brazilian leans to avoid a looping right hand as the bell sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
As the second round begins, both men jab at one another. Vieira dodges a front kick, and Gore is warned again for his fingers pointed towards his opponent. Vieira goes to the body and head, ducking a fierce right hand for a takedown shot. Gore stonewalls him, and the jabs fly from both sides. Vieira swings hard with three punches, missing with all but the end of one, although he follows with a one-two and a single. Gore breaks off from the shot and wings a trio of punches that come up short, but they have Vieira on guard. They land punches at the same time, and Vieira chains a one-two behind his jabs. Vieira kicks low, and Gore does the same. Vieira surprises his foe with a powerful right hook, and his punches back Gore to the wall. Vieira times a punch to duck under for a single, keeping Gore on one leg but not grounding him.
Vieira lands an inside leg kick that disrupts an overhand right after they split apart, and he gets off a second before Gore can respond. Vieira bops Gore in the nose with several jabs, staying busy with his leg kick. A hard right hand from Vieira makes Gore have to blink it out, and Vieira dances away from the counters and is right in Gore’s face with three flying fists. Gore misses a head kick by a matter of inches, and Vieira aims a right hand to the ribs and takes a right hand from the other direction. Vieira snaps the head back with a jab, and his leg kick is starting to give Gore issues. Gore rakes Vieira in the eye, and Smith warns him to knock it off. Vieira plants a one-two on the jaw, and Gore pushes off with his thumb that swipes the eyeball. Smith calls time, and he issues a hard warning to the fouling fighter. They resume after a 30-second break, and Vieira gets right behind his jab again. The jab stops Gore from loading up on much, although Gore does loop a big right hand that hits Vieira in the back of his shoulder. The horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
As Gore opens up to start the last round, Vieira shoots in on his hips for a takedown. Gore shuts it down, and the two start driving home jabs. Gore gets a little more active with kicks from both legs, but Vieira is still chipping at him any time he can. Vieira winds up and knocks Gore back with a mighty left hand, and Gore is tough as nails as he is staring to show damage. The low kicks are making Gore’s knee buckle as they connect, and Vieira’s one-two continues to find its target. The Brazilian races forward after a single, lifting Gore’s leg up but ultimately only backing him to the wall. Gore breaks free and circles out to take a few jabs off the forward bow. Gore kicks the body, and Vieira catches it and thinks about trying something before letting it go to roast Gore’s ribs with a few heavy blows. Gore reaches his man with a left hook, but it is one-and-done as Vieira goes to his body with punches.
Gore’s right hand marks up Vieira’s left cheek, popping a mouse beneath it that starts trickling blood. Vieira pays it no mind, continuing to beat on the body. “The Black Belt Hunter” strings a number of punches together that sets up a takedown shot, but the heavier Gore is able to shut it down when he puts his back to the fence. Vieira abandons it and wipes his face, and he looks outside the cage to listen to instructions and paws out a jab that Gore does not like. Vieira plants a one-two on the cheek, and his leg kick make Gore hobble back. Gore tries to sit down on a right hand, but Vieira is in his face with a one-two that he is starting to put some mustard behind. Gore pitches a low kick, and Vieira pursues a double. While it does not get his man down, Vieira bullies Gore until the match concludes. Barring something strange, this should be Vieira’s first win that goes the distance.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Vieira (30-27 Vieira)
The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Tresean Gore via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 30-27, 30-27)
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 60 of 101 | 1 of 11 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 1:50 |
| Andre Petroski | 0 | 55 of 111 | 49% | 58 of 114 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 14 of 26 | 53% | 14 of 26 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Andre Petroski | 0 | 13 of 34 | 38% | 13 of 34 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 24 of 40 | 60% | 24 of 40 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Andre Petroski | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 23 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 20 of 33 | 60% | 22 of 35 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| Andre Petroski | 0 | 20 of 40 | 50% | 22 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 58 of 99 | 58% | 31 of 66 | 6 of 8 | 21 of 25 | 53 of 93 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Petroski | 55 of 111 | 49% | 26 of 72 | 7 of 13 | 22 of 26 | 54 of 109 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 14 of 26 | 53% | 5 of 14 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 10 | 14 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Petroski | 13 of 34 | 38% | 4 of 18 | 3 of 8 | 6 of 8 | 13 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 24 of 40 | 60% | 14 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 22 of 37 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Petroski | 22 of 37 | 59% | 11 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 8 of 9 | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 20 of 33 | 60% | 12 of 23 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 | 17 of 30 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Andre Petroski | 20 of 40 | 50% | 11 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 8 of 9 | 19 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-245), Petroski (+200
Round 1
It’s an all-grappling extravaganza in the middleweight division, with Vieira (10-2, 5-2 UFC) one of the best submission artists in BJJ possibly putting things together finally and making a run. Standing in his way will be Petroski (12-3, 7-2 UFC) out of Renzo Gracie Philly, who knows his way in and out of a sub—both of the Philly variety and the necktie. The clock begins when referee Herb Dean says go, and the fighters acknowledge him and one another by tapping their hands together. Petroski lands a heavy low kick, and he keeps his guard up to defend from a surprisingly fast one-two. Vieira fakes for a takedown shot that draws a serious reaction out of Petroski, but he calms himself down and tosses out a head kick. Petroski chips at the front leg, and Vieira kicks him back far heavier. Vieira jabs the body with a front kick and takes a right hand on the chin to force a reset. Leg kicks come from both sides, and Vieira’s bobbing is keeping Petroski cautious. When Vieira crushes him, Petroski brains him with a powerful left hook that sends him hurtling face-first to the mat. The Brazilian bounces off the ground and back to his feet seemingly no worse for wear from the flash knockdown. More low kicks fly from both ends, and Petroski kicks Vieira coming in and shakes up his entry. Petroski wraps three punches on the side to further get Vieira’s attention, prompting the Brazilian to shoot in on his hips. Petroski stuffs the shot and gets back to kickboxing range, keeping his uppercut on the read to time as an intercepting strike. When Vieira does not shoot, Petroski lashes out with a left hook. The fighter both go after additional leg kicks, tossing them in when there is an opening. Vieira dives after a single, and the American turns when stopping it and breaks away. Petroski jabs the body and checks a kick, and a right hand from over the top nicks his cheek and causes a thin trickle of blood to flow. Vieira targets the blood spot with a few punches, and Petroski answers him with a successful takedown. Rather than play in the guard, Petroski bails on the position and stands, and he takes a front kick on the way up. The round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski
Round 2
There is a clap of hands from the middleweights to get going, and Vieira jabs out and follows one with a stern right hand. Petroski circles away, not letting Vieira cut him off or corner him. When Petroski commits to an overhand right, Vieira shoots and fails. Petroski backs him off and dings him with a right hand, and he shuts down a secondary shot and works his way out. Vieira reaches his man with a right hand, and both fighters try to sweep the leg. There are single jabs from both sides to multiple targets, and Vieira uses a jab to set up a takedown. Petroski hits his seat for less than a second before springing off the floor, where he leans on the cage and tries to spin out. Vieira loads up on three power punches with Petroski’s back to the wall, and Petroski gets out before taking more and clubs Vieira on the nose with a right hook. Vieira strings together straight punches, landing cleanly on the American without too much concern about anything coming back. Vieira keeps giving chase throwing big punches, and Petroski’s head movement and footwork is on point enough to not take too much damage. The jiu-jitsu player cracks Petroski with a straight right, keeping to simple combinations of maybe three or so. Petroski walks into a jab that is so clean, he high-fives his opponent for hitting him with it. Petroski jams the front leg with a kick that makes Vieira stagger for a second, and he tags Vieira coming in with a right hand. The Brazilian is stood up with a jab when advancing, and he takes a pounding body kick right at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
The fighters touch ‘em up leading into the last round, and Vieira gets right in Petroski’s grill throwing punches and kicks. Petroski potshots him from afar, circling away not far from the cage while launching a front kick that brushes past the chin. Vieira grips a single and fails to ground his opponent, and Petroski makes him pay for the naked shot with a solid overhand right. Petroski doubles up on low kicks and checks one after, with the Brazilian’s limb welted, swollen and bright red. Vieira sprints in for a takedown, and when Petroski’s backside hits the canvas, he turns and climbs back upright using the fence as his ally. Vieira clings on from the back, hands clasped around the waist, and Petroski shakes it off and batters the lead wheel with a ferocious kick. Vieira’s jab has drawn some swelling of Petroski’s right eye, and he reacts every time there is a pump-faked takedown. Petroski beats down the front leg a few more times to visible success, and a shot from the jiu-jitsu ace is labored and does not reach the finish line. Petroski marks up Vieira’s face with his right hand, bloodying the cheek and going after it a few times. The American thumps up the body with a kick, and Vieira is right there in front of him with a one-two down the pipe. Petroski fires off an even heavier two-punch salvo, and his work on the front leg has slowed Vieira just enough to get in and out. Vieira shoots for a double that is stopped in its tracks, and Petroski walks him down and punches him square in the face. As if to send a final message, Petroski partially hits a single, and Vieira scampers away at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Petroski (29-28 Petroski)
The Official Result
Andre Petroski def. Rodolfo Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Andre Petroski, emphasizing that Petroski has good old-fashioned American wrestling and solid BJJ, so he should not be afraid of Vieira's Jiu-Jitsu. He worries that Petroski might abandon wrestling and strike, but if he sticks to wrestling, he wins. He notes that Vieira hits hard and has a better chin, but Petroski's wrestling is the key.
Big Brady picks Vieira by second-round submission, citing his superior grappling and durability advantage. Petroski has a weak chin and has been knocked out. Vieira has improved cardio and should get on top and finish with a head-and-arm choke. Petroski's grappling is a level below.
Connor picks Rodolfo Vieira, agreeing with Zane that Vieira is the more decorated grappler and more comfortable striker. He notes that Petroski's game is shallow and that he struggled against wrestlers like Jacob Malkoun. Connor believes Vieira's power wrestling and BJJ will be too much for Petroski, and that Vieira has clearly improved since his UFC debut. He also mentions that Vieira gets tired after kickboxing but fights well tired, and that Petroski is unlikely to push that pace.
Lucrative James picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by submission in round 2 or 3, but is hesitant to lay the -250 price. He believes Vieira has the better submission grappling and intangibles like durability and mental toughness, while Petroski has better wrestling and possibly harder striking. He expects the fight to be messy on the feet, but if it goes to the ground, Vieira's jiu-jitsu will be a threat. He notes Petroski's chin is worse and Vieira is more technical on the feet, but Petroski could land a knockout. He sees value in Vieira's finishing ability but warns against the high price.
Petroski has the power and wrestling advantage to shut down Vieira's grappling. He can either control from top position or use his striking to pressure and find a finish. Official prediction is Petroski by decision, but the host can't stomach parlaying Vieira.
The MMA Guru picks Rodolfo Vieira over Andre Petroski, citing Vieira's superior jiu-jitsu and better standup. He criticizes Petroski's poor striking and believes Vieira can stuff takedowns, win on the feet, and potentially submit Petroski if he shoots on bad terms.
Zane picks Rodolfo Vieira confidently, citing Vieira's superior grappling credentials and improved MMA game. He notes that Vieira is a world champion BJJ practitioner who excels at top control and submissions, and has developed adequate boxing and wrestling. Zane contrasts this with Petroski, who relies on top control but will face a grappler of Vieira's skill and physical ability. He also mentions that Vieira has built up his cardio and is used to the pace of MMA fights, unlike in his loss to Hernandez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 14 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 14 of 25 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 9 of 20 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 6 of 11 | 54% | 4 of 6 | 0 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Armen Petrosyan | 9 of 20 | 45% | 1 of 10 | 1 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-120), Petrosyan (+100)
Round 1
Rescheduled from November due to a fight-night scratch, this quintessential striker vs. grappler contest opens the main card, as ADCC and mundials all-star Vieira (9-2, 4-2 UFC) would like nothing more than to become the first man to tap out kickboxer Petrosyan (9-2, 3-1 UFC). No matter how it plays out, these two middleweights are primed to put on a show. Referee Mark Smith is on call to keep things on the up-and-up, and there is no bad blood between them as they even hugged it out before announcer Joe Martinez introduced them. They clap both hands together, and Petrosyan takes to the center of the cage and starts looking for a jab. It is Vieira who lands the jab first, although Petrosyan is quick to find it on his own. Petrosyan jams a low kick on the calf, and he scores a front kick and another low kick while Vieira is still watching him. They trade leg kicks, and Vieira hand-fights to prevent Petrosyan from landing a right hand. Petrosyan accepts this by turning his hips towards low kicks, and he uses a front kick like a jab. Vieira doubles up on a jab, leading Petrosyan to kicking him in the side. Vieira scoops up an easy single, and when Petrosyan scrambles, the Brazilian takes his back briefly. Petrosyan manages to get back up, only for “The Black Belt Hunter” to take him down again with a single. Vieira gets one hook around the side and allows Petrosyan to surrender position so he can fish for a choke. Petrosyan muscles his way back upright, and Vieira decides instead to lift “Superman” in the air and throw him down to the mat like a middleweight Matt Hughes. This time, Petrosyan is not so able to climb up the wall behind him, and Vieira moves to half guard while lowering his weight down for an arm-triangle choke. Vieira easily steps over to mount, and Petrosyan turns over to give up his back. Vieira lets this happen so he can get a rear-naked choke, and Petrosyan turns around to lay down flat on his back.
The Brazilian presses down with all his might and he locks down an arm-triangle choke, and it is academic at this point. With seconds to spare in the round, Petrosyan taps out twice, and he nearly goes out as Vieira releases the grip. Smith pulls them apart, and Petrosyan is incensed, perhaps not realizing that he surrendered.
Petrosyan tries to claim he did not submit to the move, but no one listens as the video plays on the big screen showing him tapping. Vieira still retains a 100% finish rate with his arm-triangle choke, and he claims the UFC record with the most submissions of this type in company history (four).
The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Armen Petrosyan R1 4:48 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo highlights Rodolfo Vieira's world-class BJJ and explosiveness, and notes his improved striking and toughness shown in the Cody Brundage fight. Armen Petrosyan is a beast on the feet with a kickboxing background but has questionable takedown defense. Angelo believes the gap on the ground is wider than on the feet, and that Vieira will get takedowns and win. He is confident and looks for prop bets.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He notes that Vieira is a legit BJJ black belt with incredible grappling, while Petrosyan has terrible takedown defense (36%) and gives up his back. However, Vieira has poor cardio and if Petrosyan survives the first round, he likely knocks Vieira out. He calls it a pick 'em fight.
Cody picks Vieira, acknowledging Petrosyan is better on the feet. He thinks if Vieira can get the fight to the mat early, his BJJ is a threat. Cody notes Vieira's cardio issues but believes he can survive 15 minutes. He sees this as a close fight where Vieira's submission threat gives him the edge.
Petrosyan has shown improved takedown defense and submission defense, as seen against Gregory Rodrigues. He should be able to keep the fight standing and use his kickboxing to wear on Vieira, potentially finding a TKO in the second round. Vieira has cardio issues and is dangerous early, but Petrosyan's patience and technical discipline should allow him to survive and take over late.
Paul picks Petrosyan, citing his superior striking, cardio, and durability. He criticizes Vieira's takedown accuracy and cardio, noting he gassed against Anthony Hernandez. Petrosyan has shown good takedown defense and volume. Paul believes if Petrosyan survives the first round, he will take over and win by decision or late TKO.
The MMA Guru picks Armen Petrosyan because he believes Petrosyan has good takedown defense and a tucked-up style with short arms that makes him safer in close range. He thinks Petrosyan will chew up Vieira's legs and stuff takedowns early. He likes Petrosyan's work on the inside and expects him to get the win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 10 of 15 | 66% | 30 of 37 | 1 of 7 | 14% | 2 | 0 | 4:19 |
| Cody Brundage | 1 | 20 of 29 | 68% | 41 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 28 of 34 | 1 of 6 | 16% | 0 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Cody Brundage | 1 | 20 of 28 | 71% | 41 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:04 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 3 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 1:15 |
| Cody Brundage | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 10 of 15 | 66% | 8 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Cody Brundage | 20 of 29 | 68% | 17 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 9 of 14 | 64% | 8 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Cody Brundage | 20 of 28 | 71% | 17 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 11 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Cody Brundage | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Vieira (-240), Brundage (+200)
Round 1
Grappling ace Vieira has lost two of his last three UFC appearances, while Brundage is coming off a 2-1 campaign in 2022. Mark Smith will officiate the bout. Brundage kicks the leg and the body of his foe, then backs up Vieira with heavy punches. A clubbing overhand right has Vieira on the defensive. The Brazilian shoots for a single leg to stem the tide. Brundage defends against the fence, and then Vieira falls to his back in an attempt to initiate a grappling exchange. Vieira doesn’t like the position and returns to pushing Brundage into the fence. Vieira is already cut near his left eye from the early assault. Vieira locks his hands briefly but Brundage denies the takedown. Moments later, Vieira knees the cup of his foe and time is called. They resume the fight in space. Brundage wallops Vieira with an overhand right and the Brazilian hits the canvas. Vieira clings to a leg from half guard as Brundage hammers away with punches and elbows from above. Brundage stalls out and Vieira gets to his feet, locks his hands and looks for a takedown against the fence. He sweeps the leg out from Brundage and gets the American down. Vieira is on Brudage’s back with about 45 seconds to work. Vieira unloads with hammerfists to the side of the head. Vieira gets his hooks in and continues to attack with punches until the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Brundage
Lev Pisarsky scores the round: 10-9 Brundage
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brundage
Round 2
Vieira pressures Brundage near the fence and shoots for a single leg within 15 seconds. Brundage locks in a guillotine as they go to the canvas. Vieira pops his head free and can now work from half guard. The Brazilian looks to frame an arm triangle, but Brundage gives up his back to escape.
Brundage rolls back over again, a mistake which allows Vieira to lock the arm triangle in even tighter. This time there’s no escaping the submission, and Brundage has no choice but to ask out of the fight.
A big comeback victory for Vieira after being in danger early.
The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Cody Brundage via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke) R2 1:28
Cody picks Vieira but with low confidence, acknowledging Vieira's suspect cardio and takedown accuracy issues. He notes that Vieira's striking has improved and the constant takedown threat could open up opportunities. However, he is concerned about Vieira's gas tank and the possibility of Brundage taking him into deep waters. He ultimately sides with Vieira's world-class jiu-jitsu and pedigree.
Connor believes Vieira's BJJ and takedown game will be too much for Brundage. He notes Vieira's improved striking and cardio since the Hernandez fight, and that Brundage's limited toolkit won't keep the fight standing. He sees Brundage's only path as a knockout or tireless grappling, but doubts he can execute.
Paul picks Vieira and mentions a submission prop, noting that Vieira is a Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu specialist. He acknowledges Vieira's struggles with cardio and takedown accuracy but believes he can win even standing up. He suggests there may be a prop bet on Vieira by submission, though he hasn't looked deeply into props yet.
Zane agrees, noting Vieira's grappling advantage and Brundage's lack of a strong defensive wrestling game. He thinks Brundage's best chance is a clinch-heavy approach, but doubts he can compete with Vieira in that area. He sees Vieira as a strong favorite.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 0 | 109 of 174 | 62% | 128 of 193 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:35 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 86 of 145 | 59% | 90 of 149 | 0 of 20 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 17 of 27 | 62% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 19 of 28 | 67% | 22 of 31 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 46 of 67 | 68% | 49 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 41 of 64 | 64% | 42 of 65 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:57 | |
| 3 | Chris Curtis | 0 | 46 of 80 | 57% | 51 of 85 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 26 of 53 | 49% | 26 of 53 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chris Curtis | 109 of 174 | 62% | 80 of 136 | 29 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 104 of 167 | 2 of 4 | 3 of 3 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 86 of 145 | 59% | 64 of 121 | 6 of 8 | 16 of 16 | 83 of 140 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chris Curtis | 17 of 27 | 62% | 8 of 18 | 9 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 19 of 28 | 67% | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 | 18 of 25 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chris Curtis | 46 of 67 | 68% | 36 of 54 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 46 of 66 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 41 of 64 | 64% | 32 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 39 of 62 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Chris Curtis | 46 of 80 | 57% | 36 of 64 | 10 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 79 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Rodolfo Vieira | 26 of 53 | 49% | 23 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 26 of 53 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Curtis (-135), Vieira (+115)
Round 1
The Cinderella story of Curtis (28-8, 2-0 UFC) continues with an exceptionally dangerous task ahead of him, as he faces “The Black Belt Hunter” Vieira (8-1, 3-1 UFC) and the Brazilian’s 100% finish rate. The interesting stylistic matchup will have referee Mark Smith on top of the proceedings, ready to step in at a moment’s notice. The middleweights shake hands, and Curtis claims the center of the cage to commence. A chess match ensues, with Vieira on the outside and a leg kick or two, while Curtis looks to cut him off. When Curtis lets go with two punches, Vieira darts forward in pursuit of a takedown. Totally fresh, Curtis muscles Vieira all the way around to end up on top. Vieira does not stay grounded for long before scrambling his way back to his feet, where he mashes Curtis into the fencing. Vieira looks to trip Curtis down, and he tosses out a knee. A second knee slams square into the cup, and Curtis falls to the ground in extreme pain. Smith sees it and gives Curtis time to recover, and Curtis takes 45 seconds before Smith resets them standing up. Curtis absorbs a low kick when advancing, and Vieira punches his way into a low-percentage takedown that is well short of the lead leg of his opponent. Vieira doubles down with a low single, jamming Curtis up to the wall, and Curtis leans against it so keep himself upright. Vieira keeps after the single, but Curtis stops it from landing. Vieira backs away and then dives into another attempt, and Curtis turns him aside and knees him in the face. The Brazilian slaps several clean leg kicks on the calf before loading up on an overhand right that stuns Curtis. “Action Man” gathers himself and loads up on a strike, but Vieira intercepts him with a kick that snaps into the cup. Curtis recovers as Smith determines with replay that the heel bumped into the cup, and that it was a legal blow, so he prompts Curtis to continue again without warning Vieira for a foul. Curtis keeps himself defensive so that he can stuff takedowns, and Vieira cracks him with several thumping punches on the chin. Curtis rips a pair of left hands to the liver, and Vieira sticks out a jab and goes back to the midsection with one of his own. The tense round ends with the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
The fighters touch gloves before getting after it, and Curtis leads the dance with a jab. Vieira is there to kick him back in the knee, and he lands another that makes Curtis recoil his leg. Curtis jabs the body and walks through a leg kick so that he can give chase, and he has a straight left hand go the midsection. Vieira scores a right hand and changes levels for a single, and it is deep as he lifts Curtis’ leg up in the air and pushes him all the way back to the fence. Vieira chains the attempt to a double, and that too fails as Curtis is able to stuff the attempt, even with his right leg trapped between Vieira’s. Vieira lets the leg go so that he can swing an uppercut, and Curtis absorbs it and comes out swinging. Vieira throws a body kick that connects with the cup, and Smith tells him to not worry about it and keep fighting. Vieira charges in for a takedown, and Curtis gets all the way back to pull his leg away and get to his feet. Curtis digs punches to the body while Vieira is aiming punches to the head, and Curtis is taking damage and getting shelled but not flinching. “Action Man” continues his assault to the body, and Vieira kicks him in the knee and it slides up to bump the cup of the unlucky Curtis. There is no pause here, and Curtis lets Vieira punch him so that he can counter him. Curtis slings a head kick that brushes past Vieira’s hair, and he knocks Vieira’s head back with a left hand. Vieira appears to be slowing, and Curtis acknowledges this with a brutal left to the sternum. Two punches on the nose get Vieira’s attention, as it is bloodied and damaged. Curtis aims his left to the liver again, and he follows it with a right over the top. Curtis totally shrugs off three punches so that he can strike, but the round ends before he can release.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis
Round 3
The gloves get touched, and Curtis follows it immediately with a left hand. Curtis measures another, and he kicks out and lands on the elbow. Curtis is aggressive, throwing hands and backing Vieira up. The volume from Vieira is diminished while Curtis keeps swinging at him. Vieira shoots in for a desperation takedown, and Curtis shuts him down without batting an eye and sticks his hand in Vieira’s face. The Brazilian lunges in for a low takedown, and Curtis stuffs him and scores two punches over the top. Vieira reaches out with a one-two, and he jabs to disrupt Curtis. “Action Man” keeps the action going as he works the body, and he effortlessly stuffs a takedown and hops away to celebrate his perfect takedown defense. Vieira leans all the way in for another, and Curtis will not accept it. Vieira unleashes three powerful blows, and Curtis eats them all and gives a few back for good measure. Curtis aims punches to the head and body as Vieira tries to answer him back, but the punches continue to find the bloodied nose of Vieira. Curtis sees a telegraphed takedown coming, and after stopping it, he stuffs a second one. The American might get stung from a right hand, as his hands are low, but he uses the angle to blast Vieira in the ribs. Vieira comes up short on his umpteenth takedown, and his shots are labored and Curtis is able to make him pay with body shots. Curtis busts up the nose with a left hook, and Vieira slips it and stuffs a takedown. Vieira struggles to get back to his feet, but he tries another and fails. Vieira spams them to no avail, with Curtis clearly having done his homework and never once letting himself hit the mat thanks to Vieira’s effort. The final horn sounds as Vieira falls to his back, frustrated that his grappling was completely nullified after 15 minutes of exhausting action.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Curtis (29-28 Curtis)
The Official Result
Chris Curtis def. Rodolfo Vieira via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Chris Curtis despite being 0-2 on his previous Curtis picks. He notes Curtis has proven takedown defense against Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes, and has legitimate power. He expects Curtis to get taken down but work back to his feet and land strikes. He has a moneyline bet on Curtis.
Big Brady picks Rodolfo Vieira to win by first-round submission. He is confident that Vieira will take Curtis down early, citing Curtis's poor takedown defense and ground game from outside UFC footage (giving up back, making mistakes). He notes Vieira's elite BJJ and wrestling (5.77 takedowns per 15 minutes). He acknowledges Curtis's path to victory if he survives the first round (KO a tired Vieira), but doubts Curtis can survive. He calls it a finish-heavy fight.
Cody is a big fan of Curtis, praising his takedown defense, durability, and ability to build steam as the fight goes. He thinks Vieira's striking is poor and he tires, so Curtis will finish him in the second or third round. He also likes Curtis by TKO and mentions Curtis round 3 at +1200.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that the market is moving towards a pick'em but he still likes Curtis. He mentions Curtis round 3 as a possible prop.
The host picks Chris Curtis, noting he has been picking against him but now believes. He cites Curtis's wins over Brendan Allen and Phil Hawes, and his reach advantage. He criticizes Vieira's performance against Dustin Stoltzfus, where he was outlanded and couldn't keep him down. He predicts a second-round KO for Curtis.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 49 of 88 | 55% | 52 of 93 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:10 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 67 of 192 | 34% | 83 of 209 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 34 of 94 | 36% | 37 of 97 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 25 of 41 | 60% | 26 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 29 of 87 | 33% | 33 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 0 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:07 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodolfo Vieira | 49 of 88 | 55% | 42 of 81 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 49 of 88 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 67 of 192 | 34% | 53 of 170 | 11 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 64 of 187 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rodolfo Vieira | 23 of 46 | 50% | 20 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 34 of 94 | 36% | 26 of 79 | 6 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 93 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rodolfo Vieira | 25 of 41 | 60% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 29 of 87 | 33% | 23 of 80 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 85 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rodolfo Vieira | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Dustin Stoltzfus | 4 of 11 | 36% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
It’s grappler versus grappler in this middleweight fight next, as Vieira (7-1, 2-1 UFC) tries to rebound from the first loss of his MMA career and his first submission defeat in a decade against crafty threat Stoltzfus (13-2, 0-1 UFC). Referee Herb Dean will be minding his P’s and Q’s for this one that may not last that long, and although Vieira offers a glove touch, Stoltzfus is not having it and would prefer to get on with the scheduled violence. Vieira takes the center of the cage and sticks out his left hand a few times, but follows one with a right hand that catches Stoltzfus right on the chin. Stoltzfus returns fire with a leg kick and a straight left hand, and Vieira blocks the strike that comes after. The Brazilian dings his man with a left hand right on the nose, and he has his guard up in time as his foe responds with a trio of strikes. Both land right hands at the same time, and it is Stoltzfus who pushes forward after with a few jabs. Vieira sneaks in a right hand as he dodges and moves, and he digs the thigh of his opponent with a heavy kick. Stoltzfus is content to jab out with several punches, and the powerful strikes from Vieira have busted the nose of the American. A left hand makes Stoltzfus spin around, but Stoltzfus comes back with a vengeance as he charges with a flurry of punches. Vieira largely stays out of the way and elusive as he circles out, but Stoltzfus splits the guard with a left hand. Stoltzfus fires off a spinning kick to the thigh as if he were Andy Hug, and Vieira absorbs a few jabs that have his right eye swelling up quickly. Stoltzfus strides forward with a combination, and he punctuates it with a solid kick. Vieira fires back, only to absorb an overhand right at the end of a few punches. Vieira snaps out a jab to the damaged nose of his opponent, and Stoltzfus may be bloodied from them but he is right there to throw back. They both fire off nasty strikes in close proximity, and Vieira goes back to the jab that is starting to cause a bend in Stoltzfus’ nose. Stoltzfus looks to pressure him, but Vieira stays on his bike and circles away. Stoltzfus follows him and kicks him in the face with a spinning back kick, and Vieira looks surprised but not hurt. Both men have done some damage with jabs, and Stoltzfus sprints ahead with a flying knee that knocks Vieira off-balance as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 2
This round, when Vieira offers a glove touch, Stoltzfus obliges him. Vieira takes the center of the cage, and he runs ahead to take the fight down. With a powerful force, he scoops Stoltzfus off the ground and slams him down hard. Stoltzfus scoots his way to the fence and stands up, and he defends his back as Vieira tries to take it. Stoltzfus breaks the grip and pushes the Brazilian off of him, where they begin to jab at one another again. The American lands at the end of a one-two, and Vieira shakes it off and times a leg kick as Stoltzfus advances. Stoltzfus goes after a similar combination, and this time, Vieira sees it and stops it. Stoltzfus tries to crowd him with a right hand in close range, and Vieira rolls with it and swats away a follow-up body kick. Vieira clubs Stoltzfus with a right hand on the way in, and he surprises Stoltzfus with a left hand. The jabs from Vieira have Stoltzfus guessing and stuck when he tries to step in, and when Stoltzfus looks to power through it, Vieira chops down his lead leg. The jab continues to find its home until Stoltzfus shoots low for a takedown, and Vieira laughs it off and gets back to his piston-like jab. Blood begins to trickle and then stream out of Stoltzfus’ nose as the jab continues to find its home again and again, and Vieira is able to easily get out of the way when Stoltzfus charges him a few times. “The Black Belt Hunter” hunts Stoltzfus with a left hook as Stoltzfus comes forward, and he clips Stoltzfus with a right hand. Vieira eats a cracking right hand that sends him staggering back, and Stoltzfus tries to do more damage with a knee but the Brazilian is able to get his bearings and retreat in time. Vieira’s jab is in full display, busting open the cheek of his foe as he mixes up punches with leg kicks. Stoltzfus stings Vieira with a right hand, and he shoots low for a takedown but is stood right up. Vieira presses his foe into the fencing until the bell rings.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vieira
Round 3
The gloves are touched to begin the final frame, and both men are ready to throw hands. Stoltzfus reaches him with a right hand, and right as Vieira is about to counter, he ducks down and charges in to grab Stoltzfus and take him down. The successful takedown allows Vieira to land in half guard, and Stoltzfus defends with a kimura to nearly sweep him. Stoltzfus lifts his whole body with one arm, and as he climbs back to his feet, Vieira is there to target a double. Stoltzfus defends with a guillotine choke, and Vieira easily pulls his neck out.
The American muscles his way to his feet again, and like a coiled snake striking, Vieira leaps in the air and snags standing back control. “The Black Belt Hunter” snatches up the neck in an instant, and he wrenches it with all of his might as Stoltzfus is in grave danger. Stoltzfus topples over to the ground from this position, and he surrenders in a panic as soon as the middleweights hit the floor.
This was a statement performance for the Brazilian, who bounced back from a hard loss to prove he can manage his energy and secure a late finish over a man that had never before been stopped.
The Official Result
Rodolfo Vieira def. Dustin Stoltzfus R3 1:54 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
Cody sees Rodolfo Vieira as a prop fighter, not a moneyline play. He believes Vieira will either submit Stoltzfus early or fade badly. He has placed bets on Vieira by submission in round one and by submission in any round, citing Vieira's world-class jiu-jitsu and explosive takedowns. He warns against the moneyline due to Vieira's questionable cardio and striking.
Paul is not interested in betting this fight due to the poor moneyline value. He highlights Vieira's one-dimensional style, poor cardio, and the fact that Stoltzfus has never been submitted. He thinks Vieira is a bust and that Stoltzfus could win if Vieira gasses, but he does not make a pick.
Expert Picks (10)
Angelo picks Bo Nickal but is hesitant due to the high price (-220) and Nickal's recent loss. He believes Nickal will play it safe, use his scrambling skills, and win a decision. He thinks the opening odds (Nickal as underdog) were more accurate. He expects a boring fight and does not bet.
Big Brady picks Bo Nickal but is unenthusiastic, calling it the worst fight on the card. He expects a boring decision, similar to Nickal's fight with Paul Craig, where Nickal avoided grappling and struck for 15 minutes. Brady believes Nickal can dictate where the fight takes place but thinks both fighters may prefer to strike, leading to a sloppy decision. He predicts Nickal wins a 'greasy decision' with the crowd behind him.
Cody picks Vieira as a value underdog. He notes that Bo Nickal's striking has looked poor in recent fights and that he may be hesitant to wrestle Vieira due to his BJJ. Cody believes that if the fight stays on the feet, Vieira can out-strike Nickal, and if it goes to the ground, Vieira has the advantage. He also speculates that the UFC may be setting Nickal up to fail.
Connor also picks Vieira but is hesitant, agreeing with Zane that the fight is a coin flip. He notes that both fighters have shown they can melt down, and expects a staring contest. Connor mentions that Vieira has a jab but Bo Nickal is southpaw, which could lead to a miserable fight.
Daniel sees this as Nickal's fight to lose, as he has the wrestling to neutralize Vieira's jiu-jitsu and the athleticism to improve rapidly. However, he is cautious because Nickal looked broken in his last fight and needs to show he has rebounded. He picks Nickal but plans to watch and learn rather than bet heavily.
Lucrative James picks Bo Nickal to win by decision, but with low confidence after Nickal's poor performance against Paul Craig. He believes Nickal has better wrestling and striking, and can defend Vieira's takedowns and submissions. He expects Nickal to use his athleticism to control the fight on the feet and avoid danger on the ground. He predicts a decision win for Nickal.
Nickal lands bigger shots on the feet, stuffs Vieira's takedowns, and punishes him with enough volume to win on the scorecards. Vieira won't step on the gas like Paul Craig did.
Paul agrees with Cody, noting that he already bet Vieira at plus odds. He points out that Nickal's striking has been exposed and that Vieira is a live underdog. Paul thinks that even if the fight is a close striking affair, Vieira has a chance to win a decision. He is comfortable with the value and believes it's a good betting spot.
The Guru hesitantly picks Bo Nickal to win a close 29-28 decision. He notes that Nickal has learned from his loss to Dolidze and should be able to outpoint Vieira, who lacks finishing threat on the feet and has cardio issues. However, he acknowledges Vieira's submission threat and the possibility of a grappling exchange. The Guru expects a low-action striking match.
Zane picks Vieira but is hesitant, noting the fight is entirely dependent on whether Vieira can get out of his own head. He highlights that both fighters have similar problems with inexperience and mental fragility, and expects a bad fight. Zane thinks it's a coin flip and would be happy with even odds.
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