UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025 · Welterweight · Completed
UFC 322 Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 11"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 34
Height 5' 10"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Jack Della Maddalena
5.57 SLpM
51.0% Str. Acc.
3.84 SApM
63.0% Str. Def.
0.13 TD Avg
10.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Islam Makhachev
2.45 SLpM
58.0% Str. Acc.
1.45 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
3.1 TD Avg
56.0% TD Acc.
91.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Jack Della Maddalena
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
BetMGM +510
Submission
FanDuel +3300
Decision
FanDuel +650
Islam Makhachev
Moneyline
BetWay -275
KO/TKO
FanDuel +800
Submission
BetMGM +188
Decision
FanDuel +200
Jack Della Maddalena - Fight History
LOSS vs Carlos Prates
TKO R3 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Della Maddalena vs. Prates · May 02, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 41 of 76 53% 53 of 90 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:13
Carlos Prates 3 104 of 193 53% 104 of 193 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 15 of 30 50% 23 of 40 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 25 of 39 64% 29 of 43 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:33
Carlos Prates 1 36 of 79 45% 36 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:07
Carlos Prates 2 46 of 69 66% 46 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:40
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 41 of 76 53% 25 of 52 8 of 15 8 of 9 41 of 76 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 104 of 193 53% 79 of 164 11 of 14 14 of 15 89 of 171 1 of 1 14 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 15 of 30 50% 5 of 18 5 of 7 5 of 5 15 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 22 of 45 48% 13 of 34 3 of 4 6 of 7 22 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 25 of 39 64% 19 of 28 3 of 7 3 of 4 25 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 36 of 79 45% 27 of 69 5 of 6 4 of 4 35 of 78 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 7 14% 1 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Prates 46 of 69 66% 39 of 61 3 of 4 4 of 4 32 of 48 1 of 1 13 of 20
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Carlos Prates

Round 1
Welterweights with an eye on a title shot meet in the headliner, as Della Maddalena (18-3; 8-1 UFC) and Prates (23-7; 6-1 UFC) prepare to give us five rounds or less of fisticuffs. Enforcement of the rules—and protection of the losing fighter, if necessary—falls to veteran referee Mike Beltran, who has to break up a scuffle before the fighters are even introduced. Both men come out in orthodox stance and it’s Prates who lands first with a low kick as he slides around the outside, trying to dictate the distance to the shorter boxer. Della Maddalena is patient, stalking and cutting off the cage, and when he corrals the Brazilian near the fence, he steps in with a pair of heavy body shots. Two minutes in, neither man has really put his stamp on the round yet, but Prates is doing a good job of keeping Della Maddalena on the end of his noticeably longer reach. Prates continues to bounce around just outside of range, hands at his waist, before popping into the pocket with single strikes or pairs of punches. Della Maddalena scores with a three-piece, but eats a couple of hard shots on the counter. Prates scores with a hard body kick, then meets Della Maddalena’s next entry with a nasty knee up the middle. Thus far, Della Maddalena has worn the punches and kicks well, but he’s taken a lot of damage this round. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown with 30 seconds left in the round and gets it easily, landing in full guard near the fence. He can’t get off any offense of note before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 2
Della Maddalena comes forward to open the second frame, swinging two-handed combinations at the body. Prates slips out the side before Della Maddalena can trap him against the fence, and meets his next entry with a hard kick up the middle. Della Maddalena shoots for a takedown and gets it, moving to Prates’ back as the Brazilian stands. Della Maddalena is fishing for a choke as the Perth crowd comes alive, but he doesn’t have good hooks in and he slides right over the top. They go back to work on the feet and it’s Prates who scores with some long, straight jabs and crosses. Della Maddalena wades into the pocket and lands a hard uppercut and hook, then shoves Prates to the fence. He lands a few strikes in the clinch, then disengages. Della Maddalena hurts Prates with a punch, then gets caught with a clean counter as he tries to follow up. Della Maddalena is hurt! Prates tees off with a kick, then a pair of punches, as Della Maddalena staggers back into the fence. Prates is looking to finish, but Della Maddalena comes off the fence with a solid right hand. Under 30 seconds to go in the round and Della Maddalena appears to have recovered his wits, but Prates puts him down with a brutal leg kick right before the horn. 10-9 Prates.

Round 3
Della Maddalena, after a stern talking-to by his corner, is the aggressor to open Round 3. He comes forward with a feint, then a pair of punches, but Prates avoids any real damage. Della Maddalena essays a double-leg takedown, but Prates sprawls all over it and Della Maddalena bails quickly. Prates lights Della Maddalena up with an intercepting knee and several flush punches, punctuated by a vicious kick to the lead leg. Prates drops Della Maddalena with a high kick that blasts through the Aussie’s raised guard. Rather than swarm on the ground, he lets Della Maddalena back up, then goes right back to work sniping with big single shots.
Della Maddalena wears the head and body shots, but goes right back down after the next leg kick. This time, Prates smells blood in the water, and he pours on elbows until Beltran is left no option but to rescue the hometown fighter.
Extremely impressive work from “The Nightmare.”

The Official Result
Carlos Prates def. Jack Della Maddalena R3 3:17 via TKO (Leg Kicks and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his volume, jab, and clean boxing. He notes that Carlos Prates has power and variety but has been hit by jabs before (e.g., Trevin Giles, Ian Garry). He believes JDM's boxing and potential wrestling backup plan will secure the win, though he expects a tense fight with Prates having moments.

Odds mentioned as -110; no bet size.
"JDM is the pick. These odds are crazy. It's like minus 110."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Big Brady picks Carlos Prates to win by third-round knockout. He describes Prates as a 'moment winner' with devastating power, noting he has knocked out durable fighters like Leon Edwards and Geoff Neal. Brady acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's volume and durability but believes Prates will land a big shot as Jack pressures forward, leading to a knockout.

Prates by KO, round 3
"Give me Prachazka here. I'll take Prachazka to win this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Jack Della Maddalena as a slight underdog, believing his superior volume and output in later rounds will overcome Carlos Prates' power. He notes Prates may lack drive after making money and that Jack's durability and home crowd advantage are key factors.

"I get Jack Matalena because he's slight plus money."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 29, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Daniel Vreeland leans towards Carlos Prates due to his more versatile striking arsenal and knockout power. He notes that JDM's take-one-to-give-one mentality could be dangerous against a finisher like Prates. He also mentions the historical trend of former champions having a letdown performance after a title loss.

"I have a slight lean towards Protest, but like J if JDM wins this fight, I'm not going to be surprised if Protest puts him out."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Lean picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Carlos Prates

Prates is a slight favorite and the better striker: more diverse, better defensively, takes less damage. Maddalena is one-dimensional, struggles against good strikers (e.g., Belal Muhammad, Kevin Holland). This is likely a stand-up fight. Home advantage for Maddalena is a concern, but Prates should win a decision or KO.

"I think Prates is the better striker... in the even money odds range, it's a no-brainer to kind of lean towards him."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Lucrative James picks Carlos Prates to win via knockout. He believes Prates has a more diverse striking arsenal and better fight IQ, allowing him to get reads faster and land the kill shot. He acknowledges his bias as he knows Prates personally but states the pick is objective based on tape study.

"I lean Carlos as a more of a knockout artist... I think Carlos is going to win the fight and get a title shot next."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

The host sides with Prates, believing his Muay Thai will be more dangerous and he is more likely to get a finish. He expects Prates to cut Maddalena up and win by knockout. The host notes Maddalena's susceptibility to cuts and that Prates has a reach advantage. He thinks the line will move further towards Prates.

Knockout win
"I have to side to the pace side. I think his Muay Thai is going to be a little bit more dangerous here. And I think he's more prone to be able to get a finish compared to what Matalena …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Carlos Prates

Paul picks Carlos Prates, calling him a 'Paul Shag guy' and citing his power and ability to win moments. He questions Jack's ability to handle Prates' reach and power, and notes Prates' unorthodox lifestyle might help with time zone adjustment.

"Prattis for me, Jack Dela for you."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 1, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, believing he is a level above Prates in striking. He notes JDM's education, body work, and ability to avoid clean shots. He predicts a TKO in round three or four via body shots. He acknowledges Prates' power but thinks JDM will maintain composure.

TKO in round three or four, body shots
"I'm going to go with Jack Della Maddalena by round three or four TKO over Carlos Prochazka."
LOSS vs Islam Makhachev
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 315: Muhammad vs. Della Maddalena · May 10, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Belal Muhammad 0 132 of 318 41% 155 of 349 3 of 9 33% 0 0 3:21
Jack Della Maddalena 0 178 of 342 52% 200 of 364 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 49 42% 21 of 49 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Jack Della Maddalena 0 28 of 61 45% 28 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Belal Muhammad 0 21 of 63 33% 21 of 63 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:07
Jack Della Maddalena 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Belal Muhammad 0 32 of 79 40% 32 of 79 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 34 of 76 44% 35 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
4 Belal Muhammad 0 31 of 65 47% 35 of 70 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:19
Jack Della Maddalena 0 33 of 59 55% 51 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
5 Belal Muhammad 0 27 of 62 43% 46 of 88 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:32
Jack Della Maddalena 0 53 of 83 63% 56 of 86 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Belal Muhammad 132 of 318 41% 119 of 297 11 of 18 2 of 3 116 of 295 14 of 21 2 of 2
Jack Della Maddalena 178 of 342 52% 113 of 254 47 of 65 18 of 23 167 of 326 11 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Belal Muhammad 21 of 49 42% 15 of 40 5 of 8 1 of 1 18 of 46 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 28 of 61 45% 14 of 39 7 of 11 7 of 11 27 of 58 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Belal Muhammad 21 of 63 33% 19 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 2 19 of 61 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 30 of 63 47% 16 of 45 10 of 14 4 of 4 29 of 62 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Belal Muhammad 32 of 79 40% 29 of 74 3 of 5 0 of 0 29 of 76 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jack Della Maddalena 34 of 76 44% 20 of 58 10 of 14 4 of 4 34 of 75 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Belal Muhammad 31 of 65 47% 30 of 64 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 54 5 of 10 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 59 55% 27 of 48 4 of 8 2 of 3 32 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
5 Belal Muhammad 27 of 62 43% 26 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0 25 of 58 1 of 3 1 of 1
Jack Della Maddalena 53 of 83 63% 36 of 64 16 of 18 1 of 1 45 of 74 8 of 9 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Belal Muhammad vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Muhammad (-192), Della Maddalena (+160)

Round 1
Sometimes, a champion does not defend their throne against the top contender, but rather the top contender that is available at the time. This welterweight headliner will see Muhammad (24-3, 1 NC; 15-3, 1 NC UFC) put his belt on the line for the first time, and he meets Della Maddalena (17-2, 7-0 UFC) for all the marbles in a prototypical striker vs. grappler matchup at the highest level. Referee Jason Herzog will be the third man in the Octagon for a match that could very well go 25 hard minutes, and he brings them to the center of the cage to issue final instructions and touch gloves. It’s on with the show. Della Maddalena immediately takes to the center of the cage, where he jabs his way forward. Muhammad responds with a body shot, and Della Maddalena jabs him up. Della Maddalena kicks and punches his way forward, beating the champ to the punch. Muhammad responds with his own jab and a high kick that makes Della Maddalena spin around, from momentum and not damage. They flick jabs at one another, with Della Maddalena the more active of the two. Della Maddalena picks and pokes, and Della Maddalena responds with a power right hand. He lands a second, getting the challenger’s attention. The Aussie keeps his guard up to block a trio of punches coming his way, and kicks the champ upside the head and lances him with a left hand. A right hand from Della Maddalena stings Muhammad with a right hand up top, and he gets jabbed back and eats a right hand that follows. Della Maddalena’s leg kick lands a few times here and there when not landing up top, and he chains a low kick into one high. Della Maddalena sneaks in a left hand, and he nails the front leg with another kick. Muhammad lunges and cannot reach his man, but he sells out and shoots for something. He bails on it to drill Della Maddalena with a punch flurry, and his head kick at the end gets in. Muhammad dodges a knee and pushes out his own jab, and he rips a left to the body and kicks the same spot. They crash together, letting loose elbows that hurt the other, and then back off. One missed hook kick from the champ concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Della Maddalena begins the second stanza aggressively with kicks aimed at all targets, and he pulls back when Muhammad starts to put a jab together. Muhammad rifles off a right hand, and when Della Maddalena ducks, the champ punts him in the head. Della Maddalena’s crooked nose stays crooked as a result, and he reaches out a right hand in response. The toes of the challenger stab into his foe’s midsection, who sits in the pocket and looks for hooks from up close. Della Maddalena drives home a one-two that sends a gob of spit flying from Muhammad’s mouth, and Muhammad takes it flush and does not waver. Instead, Muhammad evades a front kick and lashes out with punches. They take turns attacking one another, until Muhammad breaks up the back-and-forth striking with a takedown shot. Della Maddalena shrugs it off, and he blocks a high kick that he knows is coming. Muhammad loops a few left hands out while trying to wrap them around the jab, and he kicks the challenger in the side that is already showing some welting. Muhammad punches his way into a takedown, and when it fails, he lands a few punches but gets caught on the way out. Muhammad catches Della Maddalena with a left hand when circling away, and he parries a front kick and comes up short by a matter of inches with his hooks. Della Maddalena jabs to the body, and Muhammad whacks him upside the head with a hard right hand. Della Maddalena responds with a combination that busts Muhammad’s nose open, and blood is quick to flow. Muhammad tries a spinning back fist, and Della Maddalena mocks him with one of his own before attempting an earnest wheel kick that brushes past the beard. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
The third round opens up as both men launch punches at one another, with Muhammad landing the better in the early exchange. Della Maddalena bites down on his mouthpiece to let his fists fly, and the third and fourth in a combination knock the champ’s head around. Della Maddalena dodges and sways when Muhammad returns fire, exaggerating his movement as he is feeling himself in there. Della Maddalena jabs the body with his foot, and kicks the lead shoulder. Muhammad responds in kind, and he laughs off a faked takedown effort from the Aussie. Muhammad punches his way forward, but he backs off before landing anything of merit. Instead, it is Della Maddalena who connects, with a right hand. Muhammad walks him down and connects a few times, but his nose gets further bloodied up by the speedy hands of the challenger. Della Maddalena chips at the calf, and he leans back as a right hand buzzes his temple. Della Maddalena jabs a few times, and Muhammad steels himself and launches a big right. Della Maddalena takes it flush and keeps on rolling, jabbing to the head and body as he keeps things mixed up. He rings the champ’s bell with a right hand, who then gives him back a left hook to think about. Muhammad pushes out a knee that bounces off the guard, and he chambers and fires a huge right hand that does not fluster his foe in the least. Muhammad runs forward, ignoring the jabs to let bigger punches go. This succeeds to a degree, until the boxer tags him with a right hand. Della Maddalena then scores a left as he backs away, in his element, strafing and swaying as he glides around. Muhammad walks him down and busts him in the face, and Della Maddalena laughs them off and throws back hammers. Muhammad shoots for a takedown, and he leans against his foe when he does not get it. Della Maddalena defends it and tries for his own, and Muhammad elbows him in the side and back of the head. Muhammad is warned for the strikes as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 4
Shockingly, the champion might need a finish as they enter the fourth frame, and given Muhammad’s 25% stoppage rate, it might be an uphill battle. Nevertheless, he tries hard right out of the gate, practically sprinting at the challenger and landing heavy punches. Della Maddalena lets him do this and backs away to the wall to rebound off of it, but his jabs are not deterring Muhammad any longer. Muhammad marks up the bridge of Della Maddalena’s nose, swinging with big uppercuts and getting caught on the way in. The champ shoots for a takedown, and he lets it go to unload with a massive combination of uppercuts. Della Maddalena pays him back with his own power shots, spraying the blood from Muhammad’s face all around the cage floor. Muhammad uses his pressure to push on Della Maddalena and try to take him down, and he aims a knee to the dome that is legal while Della Maddalena is leaned over. Della Maddalena succeeds in defending the takedown and spins his man around, and Muhammad breaks and lets loose a short stream of uppercuts. Della Maddalena walks him down, walks through an uppercut and ignores a jab so that he can measure his own shots. Muhammad swings wildly with a right hand and back fist after it, and Maddalena jabs and dodges. Muhammad shoots for a double, and Della Maddalena shuts him down and turns Muhammad to the wire. Muhammad spins him around and looks for a head kick up close, but he cannot keep Della Maddalena on the fence. A left hand from Muhammad blows open Della Maddalena’s cauliflower ear, and Della Maddalena responds with a right hand. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Muhammad

Round 5
Muhammad plods forward to commence the final frame, taking a deep breath and jabbing Della Maddalena around the cage. Muhammad rips a kick to the body, and he swings punches that bang into his foe’s forehead. Muhammad keeps heavy pressure, dodging a one-two and coming out swinging with a pair of right hooks. Della Maddalena staggers him with three left hands, and he skips to the side and intercepts Muhammad with a vicious knee that shreds a cut open on the corner of Muhammad’s eye. Rather than think about it, he blasts Della Maddalena with a counter, and he shoots for a takedown and finally lands it. Positioning himself in half guard, Muhammad smothers with his shoulder pressing the Aussie down. The champ hammers down with ground-and-pound, his blood covering Della Maddalena’s chest, which allows him to slip around and explode back to his feet. Della Maddalena’s eye swells up quickly from the damage inflicted, and Muhammad runs at him with his fists flying. Della Maddalena backs him off for a second with a front kick, and they proceed to hack at one another with elbows. Della Maddalena clubs the champion with a left, a right and a few more punches as he has “Remember the Name” rocked. Della Maddalena clinches up for a second before letting loose with body shots, and he tries a takedown and gets thrown to the ground. Muhammad scrambles to push Della Maddalena to his back, where he frantically lashes out with punches and elbows. Della Maddalena protects himself by putting his head between Muhammad’s legs, and he bursts back to his feet. Muhammad leans him against the cage and tries to get him down, but Della Maddalena pushes him away and kicks him in the head. The Aussie drills Muhammad with a punch combo that staggers him badly, but he peels back rather than trying to finish the job. He re-engages, and Muhammad is ready for him throwing hammers. Della Maddalena does the same right to the final bell, and the two welterweights go the distance in a thriller that few expected would turn out this way. There may be a new champion crowned, but either way, Muhammad shed part of his reputation of being boring with that 25-minute banger.
The scores are read, and just like that, the Muhammad era is over before he could defend it once. Australia has a new champion in the form of hard-nosed brawler Della Maddalena, who stepped up to the plate and exceeded all expectations with that performance. The Contender Series has another champion from its ranks, with Della Maddalena pushing his phenomenal win streak to 18 thanks to his likely bonus-winning battle. Because of this result, lightweight king Islam Makhachev is going to move up and be the first to challenge Della Maddalena soon, while Ilia Topuria takes on Charles Oliveira—possibly for an interim title—on International Fight Week. The confident new champion declares that he will "get one back for Volk" against Makhachev. We will be here for those terrific matchups, and we hope you are too.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (48-47 Della Maddalena)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (49-46 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Belal Muhammad via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 48-47, 49-46)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 4, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Angelo picks Belal Muhammad to defend his belt, trusting his wrestling and control. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down seven times by Gilbert Burns and survived by a lucky knee. He hopes Belal fights like he did against Wonderboy (wrestle-heavy) rather than standing. He mentions the line is tightening and suggests waiting to bet. He also notes that if Belal wins, it sets up Ilia vs Islam at International Fight Week.

"I'm going to trust the process here. I do think Bal wins. Not only is he a smart guy who understands the dangers of striking, but he also carries the wrestling reputation with him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Big Brady is confident in Belal Muhammad, citing his wrestling and fight IQ. He notes Jack Della Maddalena was taken down eight times by an aging Gilbert Burns and struggled with Basil Hafez. He believes Muhammad will wrestle despite claiming otherwise, and predicts a decision win. He thinks the only way Muhammad loses is if he fights a horrible game plan.

"Give me Blow. Give me Balao. Give me Blow to win this fight by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Connor picks Belal Muhammad but with hesitation, expressing concern that Belal lacks the athletic escape ropes to get out of trouble against JDM. He notes that JDM has a habit of violently winning fights he is losing, and that Belal's wrestling may not be a reliable get-out-of-jail card. However, he ultimately believes Belal's game planning and durability will allow him to win a narrow decision.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 7, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

The host views this as a favorable matchup for Muhammad after Rakhmonov's injury. He believes Muhammad's grappling, high pressure, and pace will be too much for Della Maddalena, keeping him on the defensive. He expects Muhammad to set up his grappling and grind out a decision victory.

"I think Muhammad's grappling style and high pressure, high pace will be too much for the striker in Matelena to keep up with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 6, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks JDM, citing his finishing potential, ability to separate and scramble, and work with Craig Jones. He believes JDM's forward pressure and body shots will trouble Belal, who he thinks is overrated after the Leon Edwards win. He predicts a second-round TKO, noting JDM's 17-fight win streak and Belal's inactivity.

second round TKO
"I'm going with JDM. I'm going with JDM. That's what I'm doing. The boys are taking this one. JDM's getting it done."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 8, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Belal Muhammad

Zane picks Belal Muhammad, arguing that Belal is a great game planner who can work around Jack Della Maddalena's limited game. He notes that Belal has successfully game-planned against many different styles, and while JDM is a dangerous puncher, Belal's durability and ability to rebuild after adversity will carry him. Zane acknowledges that Belal may only need one takedown per round to win rounds and retain his title.

"I'm definitely gonna pick Balala Muhammad here. I don't see how I couldn't but I do have a sneaking feeling..."
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
KO (knee and elbows) R3 3:43 · UFC 299: O'Malley vs. Vera 2 · Mar 09, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 58 46% 31 of 63 7 of 11 63% 0 0 5:07
Gilbert Burns 1 67 of 123 54% 85 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 35 51% 20 of 37 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:15
Gilbert Burns 0 18 of 38 47% 23 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 23 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:39
Gilbert Burns 0 21 of 48 43% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 2 of 6 33% 0 0 2:13
Gilbert Burns 1 28 of 37 75% 35 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 58 46% 16 of 43 8 of 11 3 of 4 23 of 52 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 123 54% 54 of 104 9 of 15 4 of 4 47 of 100 4 of 6 16 of 17
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 35 51% 9 of 23 7 of 9 2 of 3 14 of 29 3 of 5 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 18 of 38 47% 13 of 33 3 of 3 2 of 2 15 of 34 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 7 of 17 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 21 of 48 43% 15 of 36 5 of 11 1 of 1 21 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 28 of 37 75% 26 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1 11 of 18 1 of 2 16 of 17
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-162), Burns (+136)

Round 1
The deep card continues with a potential thriller at 170 pounds between a striker and a grappler who loves to bang. Former lightweight and Mundials medalist Burns (22-6, 15-6 UFC) will try to derail the hype train and 16-fight win streak of talented Aussie Maddalena (16-2, 6-0 UFC), and referee Dan Miragliotta is as psyched as the fans are to see it go down. Ahead of their scheduled melee, the two men bump fists. Burns whips a low kick to find his distance, and Maddalena paws out a jab. Burns aims a kick to the body and then lead leg, and Maddalena jabs him back. Chants of “Gilbert” rain down in support of the Brazilian by way of Florida, and he does not go crazy when hearing it and stays composed to land punches and a body kick. Burns shoots for a takedown, and when Maddalena scrambles, he takes the back. Maddalena scrambles and turns, and Burns drags him down from behind to assume partial control of the back again. Maddalena once more explodes to his feet, and he is pushed back to the fence as Burns wants to relocate him to a more horizontal position. Burns aims a knee to the sternum hen the takedown is thwarted, and he drops down low for a single and lets it go to hang on. Maddalena counters with a throw and knees Burns in the face with a strike that was borderline, but it was uncalled as a potential foul, so they continue. Burns appears no worse for wear, but he is less aggressive than before as Maddalena sticks out several jabs and a low kick. Maddalena sneaks in and scores a right hand, and Burns kicks him in the ribs and comes up short with a booming right hand. Burns fires off another big right, and Maddalena sees it coming and boxes him back. Maddalena tags Burns with a left hand, and he leans back to dodge a head kick that flies past his noggin. Maddalena strings three left together to the head and then body, and Burns grits his teeth and swings back with bad intentions. Maddalena times an advancing Burns to nail him with a left hook, and Burns takes it well enough and jabs back. Burns wings a right hand that just misses, and Maddalena skim a right hand off the cheek. Burns again fires off an inaccurate head kick, and he crashes forward to engage and lands a right hand, backs off and kicks the body and lead leg. Maddalena darts in with two swiping lefts, and he defends against a takedown that puts him on his back. Burns sits up and drops down hammerfists, and he concludes the close round with a standing-to-ground right hand.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Maddalena jabs early to lead off, and he prods out a front kick that Burns parries. Maddalena aims a left to the body as he doubles up on jabs, and he ducks when Burns counters with an overhand right. Burns swings hard, and Maddalena sees it coming and backs him away with a straight right hand. Burns kicks high, and he is the one that bounces back when hitting the guard. Maddalena dings his man with a punch, and Burns shoots for a single and moves Maddalena to the mat. Maddalena gets to a knee, and Burns clings to him from on top. Maddalena shrugs off a potential submission from the Brazilian to stand back upright, and they both land punches at the same time. Maddalena aims a left hand straight down the middle, and Burns throws back with a heavy right that draws some swelling. Maddalena dings “Durinho” with a one-two, and Burns throws back with the same and hops away to avoid an Anderson Silva-esque back elbow. Burns winds up and bounces a right hand on the forehead, and Maddalena crowds him and chains five punches together before pulling back. Maddalena leans back, scores and evades the counters. Maddalena connects with four punches before Burns escapes out the side, and Burns smiles and throws a big right hand. Maddalena slips and digs a right to the body. Burns blasts Maddalena in the face with a huge overhand right, and Maddalena frowns and gets taken down from a blast double. Maddalena turns to his knees, and he considers his own takedown but Burns easily stops it and drags him down with his arm wrapped around the neck. Burns steps into full mount, but Maddalena scrambles perfectly to get out. Burns takes the back as they keep moving, and he get hooks in and secures the body triangle. Burns sneaks an arm around the chin, but there is nothing there as Maddalena sticks his tongue out before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Burns
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Burns

Round 3
The last round kicks off, and Maddalena is back to his jab. Burns strafes laterally, and stops as Maddalena kicks him in the chest. Maddalena scores a right, and he leaps forward with another as Burns continues to move. Burns kicks him in the head, and Maddalena counters him with several uppercuts that rock the Brazilian. Burns leans over, and after absorbing a few more, he shoots for a single to stop himself from taking damage. Maddalena elbows him once before rolling through to stop a takedown, and the elbow smashes the Brazilian’s nose open and blood leaks down his face. Burns wrenches him down to the floor from the side. Burns presses his full body weight on his opponent, and he disallows Maddalena from standing by isolating the right leg. Maddalena looks at the video to find a better way to get up, and Burns wraps arms around the waist and drags him down. Burns gets a hook in and uses his left arm to set up a rear-naked choke, but his other arm is busy so there is no submission in sight. Burns pushes through to advance position, and they both flip all the way over. Maddalena scurries back to his feet, and Burns follows and charges directly into about the cleanest knee one could ever offer. Burns falls to his back, and Maddalena lays into the damaged Burns with a long barrage of punches and elbows. As Maddalena puts more mustard on the elbows, Miragliotta watches closely and makes the decision to intervene and wave the fight off while Burns is staring blankly into space, detached from his senses. This is a huge comeback for the Aussie, who has now won 17 fights in a row while putting away the ultra-durable “Durinho.”

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Gilbert Burns R3 3:43 via KO (Knee and Elbows)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 3, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume striking and jab. He thinks Burns is past his prime and has been exposed by wrestlers. He believes Della Maddalena will piece Burns up on the feet and defend takedowns. He has a half-unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.

Half unit bet on Della Maddalena at -125.
"Jack manalan is going to win this fight he's going to piece him up do whatever he wants to do on the feet and defend the takedowns Jack manalan is the pick and I have a half a unit bet …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Della Maddalena has great striking and power, but has made grappling mistakes in the past. He believes Della Maddalena can keep the fight standing and finish Burns, though Burns could submit him if it goes to the mat. He acknowledges the fight could go either way.

win by second round knockout
"I'm going Jack Dela Melina by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Cody notes that Della Maddalena has been in close fights and could easily have lost, while Burns is a well-rounded grappler with a clear path to victory via takedowns. He thinks Burns's wrestling and experience will be too much for Della Maddalena.

"if you're looking for underdogs you do a lot worse than Gilbert Burns I he's live at that plus money"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, citing his superior boxing and underrated takedown defense. He notes that Burns has been dropped by jabs from Usman, Chimaev, and Muhammad, and that Jack has a nasty jab. Daniel acknowledges Burns's dangerous jiu-jitsu but believes Jack can avoid submissions by not getting carried away with guillotines like he did against Hiestand. He bet Jack at minus 135 and expects Jack to light Burns up and possibly knock him out.

"I bet him at minus 135 got the best of it well the best of it in terms of like you know he's gonna close What minus 180 to whatever"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Della Maddalena, stating he has never picked against him and doesn't plan to start. He acknowledges this is a big step up from fighting Kevin Holland to Gilbert Burns, and calls it a 'dog or pass' spot. Vreeland notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, as seen against Kamaru Usman and Vicente Luque, and that Burns' path to victory is to grapple immediately. He believes the line should be closer to even money but still picks JDM.

"I haven't ever picked against Jack Della Maddalena and I don't plan on starting."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Jeff Fox picks Jack Della Maddalena as well, echoing that he has never picked against him. He mentions that Burns is always in people's corners coaching, which may detract from his own training. Fox also notes that Burns gets hit by good strikers, citing the Kamaru Usman knockout. He believes JDM's youth and momentum are key, and that Burns' best chance is to take the fight to the ground immediately.

"Yeah me too give me Jack as well."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 4, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena is a far superior striker with excellent range management and takedown defense, as shown in his fight against Kevin Holland. Burns relies on takedowns to win, but at 38 years old and with declining athleticism, he may struggle to get the fight to the ground. Della Maddalena should dictate the pace in the striking realm and eventually land a knockout in the second or third round. Burns' BJJ is a threat, but Della Maddalena's improved awareness should keep him safe.

Della Maddalena by KO/TKO in rounds 2-3
"I think that Melina should win this fight I think that this is a matchup where we'll see Burns stying to show the decline in his career and showcasing that he can't compete with the guys that are deserving of …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Gilbert Burns

Paul agrees, pointing out that Della Maddalena has shown holes in his takedown defense and that Burns can exploit that. He also notes that Burns has a strong wrestling game and can win rounds by controlling position on the ground.

"it's Gilbert Burns for me as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena, arguing he clearly beat Bassil Hafez and Kevin Holland. He believes JDM's striking defense is excellent and that he will stuff Burns' takedowns and tune him up on the feet with a jab. He notes Burns' tendency to bail on takedowns with guillotine attempts and predicts JDM will TKO Burns late in round one.

TKO late round one
"I'm going to go JDM tkoos burns up against the cage late round one"
WIN vs Kevin Holland
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Shevchenko 2 · Sep 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 127 of 356 35% 127 of 356 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 105 of 190 55% 105 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 40 of 111 36% 40 of 111 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 41 of 69 59% 41 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 49 of 127 38% 49 of 127 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 34 of 61 55% 34 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 38 of 118 32% 38 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Holland 0 30 of 60 50% 30 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 127 of 356 35% 59 of 258 33 of 55 35 of 43 119 of 346 8 of 10 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 105 of 190 55% 46 of 115 36 of 49 23 of 26 94 of 175 11 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 40 of 111 36% 15 of 76 11 of 18 14 of 17 36 of 105 4 of 6 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 41 of 69 59% 19 of 42 14 of 18 8 of 9 34 of 60 7 of 9 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 49 of 127 38% 27 of 97 10 of 16 12 of 14 46 of 124 3 of 3 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 34 of 61 55% 10 of 34 14 of 17 10 of 10 33 of 60 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 38 of 118 32% 17 of 85 12 of 21 9 of 12 37 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Kevin Holland 30 of 60 50% 17 of 39 8 of 14 5 of 7 27 of 55 3 of 5 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Kevin Holland
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-148), Holland (+124)

Round 1
Ranked welterweights cross paths in the compelling co-main event, as Della Maddalena (15-2, 5-0 UFC) puts his remarkable 15-fight winning streak on the line in arguably his toughest test to date. The 30-year-old Holland (25-9, 12-6 UFC) boasts 21 finishes among his 25 career victories. Jason Herzog draws the officiating assignment. Della Maddalena lunges forward with jabs and hammers home a leg kick. Holland answers with a leg kick of his own, stays light on his feet and looks to penetrate the Aussie’s defenses with punches down the middle. Della Maddalena attacks the body with hooks and tries to stay close to the Texan, hoping to negate a significant reach advantage. They engage one another at close range in the center of the cage, trading elbows and punches that draw oohs and aahs from the crowd. Holland punctuates a combination with a left hook. Della Maddalena responds with a right hand over the top. Holland stays busy with his kicks, zeroing in on the legs, body and occasionally the head. Della Maddalena scores with a body-head volley in the waning seconds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 2
Holland paws with his jab but lands nothing of significance. Della Maddalena sneaks in a leg kick, closes the distance and connects with a right hand upstairs. Holland answers with front kicks to the body and push kicks to the legs. This has the makings of a nip-tuck affair that could go either way. A short counter right lands for Holland, who rolls with punches as the Aussie tries to return fire. Della Maddalena struggling to generate enough output. Holland stays busy with his hands and feet. He doubles and triples up on his jab. Della Maddalena punctuates a combination with a leg kick. Holland shoots on a takedown and bails on it, with both men throwing elbows on the exit. Holland clips his opponent with a right hook at close range, catches a kick and nearly dumps the Aussie to the canvas as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena

Round 3
Della Maddalena opens the third round with a clubbing right hand that forces “Trailblazer” to retreat and circle. Holland keeps his composure and threatens with kicks. He leans on his jab and connects with a spinning reverse elbow, but it fails to make much of an impact. Della Maddalena cuts loose with punches, and while he lands a few of them, most miss the mark. The Aussie is the more active participant through the first half of the period. Holland is not hitting the accelerator, even though he needs to. Della Maddalena appears to be blocking a majority of his shots. The crowd boos for some reason. Della Maddalena answers every Holland strike with two, three and four of his own. Holland starting to pick up the pace, but it looks to be a case of too little too late. Della Maddalena delivers a pair of short-range elbows just before the fight ends.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (29-28 Della Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Della Maddalena (30-27 Della Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Kevin Holland—Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo leans Kevin Holland, acknowledging possible recency bias. He notes Holland's power, accuracy, and experience against top competition. He thinks Holland's size and striking could be the difference. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds as a potential bet and will monitor the line.

over 2.5 rounds considered
"I am going to lean Holland it might be recency bias I'm hoping it's not and I just think it's going to come down to I know how tough Holland is"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Holland but with very low confidence, acknowledging Holland's poor fight IQ and tendency to strike instead of grapple. He notes Holland's advantages in size, reach, experience, and grappling, but expects Holland to strike and potentially get outpointed. He predicts Holland will hurt Della Maddalena on the feet and find a submission in the second round.

second round submission
"I think I'm gonna go with Kevin Holland here with with little to no confidence"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody also picks Kevin Holland, emphasizing the reach advantage and Holland's experience against top competition. He notes that Della Maddalena's ring IQ was questionable against Hafez, and that Holland's BJJ and durability make him a live dog. Cody believes Holland's power translates well at 170 and that Della Maddalena may struggle to get inside. He considers this a 'dog or pass' situation and likes the value.

"I'm also GNA take Holland but by or beware... I just think the numberers too good on Kevin Holland dog money."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Daniel Levi is confident in Jack Della Maddalena, having bet him at plus-100 earlier. He dismisses recency bias from Della's fight with Hafez, noting Hafez attempted 20 takedowns while Holland rarely wrestles. He believes Della's pressure and body work will overwhelm Holland, who struggles when pressured. Levi trusts Della's durability and sees this as a range battle where Della can cut off the cage and force Holland to fight going backward.

bet at plus-100, now minus-145; could hedge on Holland for profit
"I'm gonna ride it out on Jack Dilla and here's why"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Holland has improved defensive grappling and a sniper-like striking game with range. Della Maddalena is a crisp boxer but struggled with wrestling in his last fight. Holland can use his jab and straight shots to keep distance, and may mix in grappling after learning from the Wonderboy fight. I think Holland has more paths to victory and will win a close decision, handing Della Maddalena his first UFC loss.

"give me the underdog shot here on Holland who I think he has more paths to Victory here and I think he has a good enough striking game to compete against Elena make this close... I think it ends up …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul picks Kevin Holland as an underdog, citing Holland's 8-inch reach advantage, better submission grappling, and improved wrestling at 170 lbs. He notes that Jack Della Maddalena's wins are against lower-level opponents and that he struggled with Basil Hafez's takedowns. Paul believes Holland's durability and power will be key, and that Della Maddalena may not find the same openings against a longer, more experienced fighter.

"I bet Kevin Holland and you know me historically Kevin Holland hater... I'll take the bigger opponent with decent enough grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Kevin Holland, stating the odds were wrong to have him as an underdog. He believes Holland won't grapple, which benefits JDM's striking. He envisions Holland backed against the cage using a Philly shell and JDM landing a liver shot for a TKO. He notes Holland's weight cut to welterweight and JDM's power in his hands.

TKO via liver shot, late first or second round
"I'm gonna go with Jack Della madalena over Kevin Holland"
WIN vs Bassil Hafez
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Holm vs. Bueno Silva · Jul 15, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 83 of 137 60% 149 of 212 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Bassil Hafez 0 32 of 124 25% 48 of 141 3 of 20 15% 0 1 6:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 13 of 26 50% 41 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Bassil Hafez 0 9 of 28 32% 12 of 31 3 of 5 60% 0 0 3:19
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 27 of 43 62% 47 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Bassil Hafez 0 16 of 56 28% 29 of 70 0 of 6 0% 0 0 2:15
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 43 of 68 63% 61 of 92 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:10
Bassil Hafez 0 7 of 40 17% 7 of 40 0 of 9 0% 0 1 1:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 83 of 137 60% 55 of 104 27 of 32 1 of 1 68 of 119 14 of 17 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 32 of 124 25% 29 of 117 2 of 6 1 of 1 28 of 118 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 13 of 26 50% 9 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 9 of 28 32% 8 of 26 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 26 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Della Maddalena 27 of 43 62% 17 of 31 9 of 11 1 of 1 24 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
Bassil Hafez 16 of 56 28% 15 of 53 1 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Jack Della Maddalena 43 of 68 63% 29 of 52 14 of 16 0 of 0 32 of 55 10 of 12 1 of 1
Bassil Hafez 7 of 40 17% 6 of 38 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 39 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bassil Hafez vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-625), Hafez (+440)

Round 1
Dead-set on getting a fight to not waste this training camp, Australia’s Maddalena (14-2, 4-0 UFC) stayed in Las Vegas and draws a late notice debuting opponent in the form of Hafez (8-3-1, 0-0 UFC). The biggest betting favorite in the card, Maddalena aims to improve his win streak to 15 while hunting for his 14th stoppage. On the other side, Philadelphia-trained Hafez has never been finished. This sport is wild and anything can happen, and referee Mark Smith is standing by in case it does. The two rush out of their corners with no interest in a glove touch, and Hafez is a man on a mission. Hafez shoots in for a double, and he puts the Aussie right on his back. Maddalena defends with a guillotine choke, and Hafez steps over properly to stop the choke from being tight while passing guard. Maddalena turns to his knees and returns upright to his feet, and he counter hip tosses Hafez back down. Hafez manages to reverse this when they land on their knees together, and he holds on from the side while keeping his weight on Maddalena. Maddalena leans up against the fence, and he manages to turn about and works the body. Hafez lands an elbow on the break as he backs off, and Hafez sticks his man with a left hand. Hafez slings a kick, and he topples over. The newcomer springs back up, and he backs up against the wall and trades furious leather, even catching Maddalena. Hafez gets popped, and he changes levels to secure a takedown and plant the heavy favorite on his back. Maddalena once more works to his knees and gets vertical, and he marches Hafez down and throws hands. Hafez catches him with a counter, but Maddalena lands the better strikes to force a telegraphed shot from his opponent. Maddalena defends it, and Hafez eventually bails on it instead of expending more energy. Maddalena clips Hafez behind the ear, and he strings a few punches together but eats some powerful blows right back at him. Hafez shoots in for a takedown, lifting Maddalena off his feet and fighting out of the guillotine choke that inevitably comes. Hafez, in half guard, leans down his shoulder with an arm-triangle choke that does not have the leverage he wishes. The round ends in this position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hafez
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hafez

Round 2
Looking to make up ground, Maddalena starts out aggressively. Hafez times a takedown early, and Maddalena staves it off and looks to take the back. Both stand up, and Hafez kicks the body as he backs off. Maddalena crowds Hafez and shucks a takedown to the side. Hafez times a spinning back fist when recovering, and Maddalena ignores it so that he can throw punches. Hafez sits down on a left hand, and they proceed to nail one another. Hafez knocks Maddalena back in a wild exchange, and Maddalena is landing too but not flustering Hafez one iota. Maddalena aims a front kick to the body, and he loops a right hand around the guard. Maddalena shuts down a takedown as he backpedals from one side of the cage to the other. Maddalena gets out of the tie-up and starts opening up with his punches, leaning Hafez over and kneeing him in the face. Hafez appears to be running out of steam, as Maddalena works the body several times and opens right and left hands over the top. Hafez takes a knee to the side as he leans over, and he gathers himself to wing hooks that miss the mark. Maddalena stifles a leaping double, and he wrenches his arm around the neck and drops back for a guillotine choke. Hafez welcomes this, as he is not in danger and it allows him to crawl on top and catch his wind. Hafez shifts his weight over to grip down on an arm-triangle choke, and he hops to the side to get a better angle. Maddalena grabs hold of his own foot, and Hafez moves back to half guard. Hafez isolates Maddalena’s left arm for a potential keylock, and he bumps his shoulder into Maddalena’s face. The round ends with Hafez on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena

Round 3
The last round opens, and it could be even on the scorecards. Maddalena wants to keep the judges out of the equation, coming out putting hands on face. Hafez misses with a high kick, whiffs with a superman punch, and absorbs a flush right hand. Maddalena sticks out a few jabs and lobs a left hand to follow, and Hafez rolls with it and drives Maddalena from one side of the cage to the other in pursuit of a double. When that fails, Hafez changes it for a single, and Maddalena pulls his leg out and resets. A cut has opened on the corner of his left eye, and he lets Hafez overswing so he can crack him with a left hand. “The Habibi” shoots for a double when getting tagged, and Maddalena shuts it down and a second try so that he can wobble Hafez with a right hand. Hafez tries to tie him up, and Maddalena pounds on the body. Maddalena gest clinched, and he pushes off so that he can kick Hafez and throw everything and the kitchen sink at the chin of his spent opponent. Hafez tries with all his might to get a takedown, and Maddalena stops it and beats on the body. Maddalena busts Hafez up with body shots, and he holds onto Hafez’ right hand so that he can slug him with his free hand. Hafez shoots in desperately with 100 seconds to go, and Maddalena lets him do this so that he can stop it and jump on his back. Maddalena fishes for a rear-naked choke, and he gets rolled over by the determined Hafez. As they scramble, Maddalena hunts for an armbar, and he elects to stand back up while Hafez hold on to head lock. Maddalena gets pushed back to the cage wall with a double, and Hafez grabs the fence to hold him there. Maddalena lowers his man down to the floor, and hangs on in this top position to end the fight. What a wild battle, easily the best fight on the card thus far. No matter the result, Hafez gave an incredible account of himself on short notice against a top contender. This is also a tough look for the ranked Maddalena, who might not even get his hand raised depending on the score of the second round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Maddalena (29-28 Maddalena)

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Bassil Hafez via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 13, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady picks Jack Della Maddalena, noting that while Hafez is a short-notice opponent with good wrestling and power, his cardio is poor and he gets hit a lot. He expects Della Maddalena to be the much better striker and to catch Hafez late in the first round. He acknowledges Hafez could have early success but doesn't think he can maintain the pace. He would not lay -550.

Late first round knockout; would not lay -550
"give me Jack Della late first round knockout this fight should be an absolute Banger there's a reason they move this to the co-main"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody picks Della Maddalena, citing his combination punching, volume, and cardio. He thinks Della Maddalena runs circles around Hafez and has solid striking and grappling. He acknowledges the risk of a short-notice opponent but believes Della Maddalena is a future contender. He suggests a live bet on Hafez after the first round if you want to go the other way.

live bet on Hafez after first round
"I gotta back him here the same way I was gonna back him last week the same way I would back him against most of the guys of the division let alone a guy making his debut"
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)

James mentions that Jack Della Maddalena has been added to the card but says he doesn't know anything about his opponent Bassil Hafez. He briefly notes Hafez's record and a draw with Jeremiah Wells but does not offer a pick or analysis.

"I don't know anything about this guy Liam"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 12, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Bassil Hafez

Paul picks Hafez as an underdog, citing his grappling, power, and cardio. He notes Hafez has never been knocked out and has good timing on counters. He thinks Hafez can mix in takedowns and make it closer than the line suggests. He acknowledges Della Maddalena is the better striker but sees value in the dog shot. He will wait for weigh-ins due to short notice.

"I'll pick a fez on the program which is crazy but... I don't hate the madalena fade uh as a as a concept here I don't think it's too too crazy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru confidently picks Jack Della Maddalena over Bassil Hafez, praising JDM's superior footwork, striking technique, and lack of telegraphing. He criticizes Hafez's split decision win over Anthony Ivy and notes he was tagged by Evan Cutts' jab. He predicts JDM wins by KO late in the first round.

KO late in the first round
"I've got to go with JDM getting his jab going early and eventually seeking the kill at the end of the first round where I think he's gonna get a KO win"
WIN vs Randy Brown
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
WIN vs Danny Roberts
TKO (punches) R1 3:24 · UFC Fight Night: Nzechukwu vs. Cutelaba · Nov 19, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 2 33 of 60 55% 41 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Danny Roberts 0 5 of 33 15% 5 of 33 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 33 of 60 55% 23 of 41 9 of 16 1 of 3 27 of 50 2 of 2 4 of 8
Danny Roberts 5 of 33 15% 2 of 29 1 of 2 2 of 2 4 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jack Della Maddalena vs. Danny Roberts
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-490), Roberts (+330)

Round 1
The fists are sure to fly in this welterweight affair. Winner of 12 straight fights, with 11 going down inside the distance, Maddalena (12-2, 2-0 UFC) is keen on rising up the rankings fast. His next test comes in the form of British brawler Roberts (18-6, 7-5 UFC), who will almost certainly meet him in the middle. For as long as this match lasts, referee Mart Smith will be here for it. Like most of the fights thus far, there is no glove touch to initiate the proceedings. Maddalena measures himself, and he works his way in to close the distance and smack Roberts in the face with a right hand. Roberts tries to back him off with kicks, but Maddalena is on him with a fire and a fury. Maddalena rips the body in the midst of a lengthy combination, but Roberts has the wherewithal to dodge a high kick. As he dips down, he eats a knee on the chin, and his knees wobble but he keeps his bearings. As Roberts escapes, Maddalena gives chase and slams his fists into the face of his adversary. The Brit topples to the mat in big trouble, and Maddalena climbs down in hopes of finishing the job. Roberts protects himself from further harm and fights back to his feet. Maddalena is there to meet him with punches and a high kick, but the latter gets blocked. The Aussie lines up a knee and a right hook, and Roberts is taking a pounding but still in the fight. Roberts swings with a few looping shots before charging in from across the cage for a double, and Maddalena defends it with the wall to his back. Roberts checks a kick, and he unloads a combination of brutalizing blows.
Roberts backs up to the wall, and Maddalena swarms him with a long salvo that breaks Roberts with a left to the liver. Roberts’ legs give way beneath him, and Maddalena only needs a few pulverizing punches until Smith has seen enough and calls it.
This stellar performance for the man that has now won 13 fights in a row makes him absolutely one to watch in the welterweight division, and he calls for a fight at UFC 284 against anyone who will take it in his home city of Perth, Australia, in February.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Danny Roberts R1 3:24 via TKO (Punches)
Islam Makhachev - Fight History
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC 322 · Nov 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 0 18 of 61 29% 30 of 74 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 30 of 57 52% 140 of 188 4 of 4 100% 0 0 19:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 0 4 of 18 22% 11 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 3 of 8 37% 20 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:52
2 Jack Della Maddalena 0 3 of 6 50% 6 of 9 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 9 of 17 52% 36 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 4:05
3 Jack Della Maddalena 0 9 of 20 45% 11 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 11 of 18 61% 32 of 44 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:06
4 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 11 9% 1 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 7 of 12 58% 30 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
5 Jack Della Maddalena 0 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Islam Makhachev 0 0 of 2 0% 22 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 18 of 61 29% 10 of 45 6 of 12 2 of 4 14 of 56 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 30 of 57 52% 14 of 40 6 of 7 10 of 10 20 of 41 3 of 4 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 4 of 18 22% 3 of 14 1 of 2 0 of 2 4 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 3 of 8 37% 0 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 3 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 1
2 Jack Della Maddalena 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 9 of 17 52% 6 of 13 1 of 2 2 of 2 3 of 6 1 of 2 5 of 9
3 Jack Della Maddalena 9 of 20 45% 4 of 12 4 of 7 1 of 1 5 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 11 of 18 61% 5 of 12 3 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 14 2 of 2 2 of 2
4 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 11 9% 0 of 8 0 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 8 2 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Jack Della Maddalena 1 of 6 16% 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
Islam Makhachev 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
UFC Welterweight Title Fight: Jack Della Maddalena vs. Islam Makhachev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Makhachev (-270), Della Maddalena (+220)

Round 1
Herb Dean is the referee. Makhachev opens with a low keg kcik. Maddalena immediately pressures behind a combination. Makhachev with a front kick down the middle but Maddalena has his guard up. Maddalena moves in with a combination. It’s a about a minute in when Makhachev shoots for his first takedown, and he gets it by tripping the Aussie to the mat. Makhachev in half guard, applying heavy top pressure. Makhachev looks for openings to land offense, and he lands short elbows and punches. Maddalena creates a scramble and gets to his feet, but Makhachev jumps on his back. The champ goes to his back, so Makhachev is in top position again, working from half guard. It’s all defense for Maddalena, who’s trying to limit his opponent’s offense from above. Makhachev looks to advance to lock up a choke. Maddalena seems to be wise to it, and he recovers full guard. The round ends with Maddalena landing an illegal upkick on Makhachev, who had a knee down.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 2
Maddalena misses a front kick and Makhachev answers with a hard calf kick. Makhachev leaps in with a two-punch combo then moves away. Makhachev lands a leg kick and then slides away with his jab. Maddalena partially blocks a high kick. Maddalena lands a solid shot as Makhachev closes the range. The Dagestani shoves his foe into the fence. Maddalena tries to defend by stepping over the top, but he ends up on his back near the fence. Makhachev works from half guard with 3:00 to go in the frame. Makhachev drops an elbow as he methodically controls the action. Maddalena isn’t doing much in the way of initiating a scramble. Short elbows land for Makhachev. The combatants move further away from the fence, and it’s still Makhachev in control. Maddalena considers moving to a hip but thinks better of it, maybe due to the threat of the submission. Makhachev creates some room to drop a series of elbows. Maddalena gets to his feet with about 10 seconds to go. Makhachev ends the frame with a knee to the body. One-way traffic so far.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 3
Maddalena throws a jab and then an inside leg kick. A much harder low kick lands for Makhachev. A calf kick from Makhachev makes Maddalena stumble. Makhachev picks up the pace and lands a combination. They clinch, and Maddalena finds a home for some body work. Makhachev attacks with a leg kick before executing a quick level change — and Maddalena is back on the floor. Maddalena does a good job defending his opponent’s desired choke, but Makhachev is otherwise in a dominant position again. Makhachev works diligently to pass guard as he peppers his foe with short punches. Makhachev switches from punches to elbows while continuing to apply top pressure. Maddalena gets to his knees, but he’s unable to create anything during a late scramble before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 4
Maddalena tries a high kick but Makhachev is ready for it. Makhachev lands a body kick as his opponent moves forward. Makhachev lands an inside leg kick. Another body kick connects for the Dagestani. Maddalena isn’t offering much in the way of offense at this point in the fight. Another low kick makes Maddalena hop briefly. Suddenly, Makhachev explodes for a takedown and he gets it with about 3:30 left in the period. Maddalena tries to create space with his guard, but Makhachev floats on top and deftly transitions to the back. The former lightweight king locks in a body triangle, and then he briefly collects one of Maddalena’s arms. The Aussie frees his limb, but he’s flat on his back again. It’s rinse and repeat for Makhachev, who continues to maintain significant pressure from half guard. Makhachev is thinking about a kimura, and Maddalena scoots to a seated position. Maddalena stands with 10 seconds left, but he can’t break his foe’s grip before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev

Round 5
Like Weili Zhang before him, Maddalena needs a miracle to come out with a victory. Maddalena tries to pressure early, but Makhachev takes him down with ease less than 30 seconds into the period. Makhachev is looking to frame a kimura once again, but Maddalena escapes the submission. It’s essentially turned into a repeat of the earlier rounds. Maddalena doesn’t have any answers for Makhachev, and the only suspense at this point is whether the Dagestani will be able to secure a submission before the final horn. For now, Makhachev is just staying busy with pressure and occasional offense from top position. Maddalena briefly recovers full guard, but he’s grimacing as Makhachev continues to impose his will. Makhachev briefly has a choke locked in, but Maddalena again avoids the finish. As time ticks away, an “Islam” chant rains down, led by Khabib Nurmagomedov from the corner. Maddalena scrambles up right before the horn once again, but it’s of little importance. Makhachev has his 16th consecutive victory in hand, and he’s about to be a two-division champion.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Makhachev (50-45 Makhachev)

The Official Result
Islam Makhachev def. Jack Della Maddalena via Unanimous Decision (50-45, 50-45, 50-45) R5 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."
Submission (brabo choke) R1 4:05 · UFC 311: Makhachev vs. Moicano · Jan 18, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 19 31% 18 of 31 1 of 2 50% 1 0 1:27
Renato Moicano 0 9 of 27 33% 18 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 19 31% 5 of 17 1 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 18 0 of 0 1 of 1
Renato Moicano 9 of 27 33% 2 of 18 3 of 5 4 of 4 9 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 12, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, noting his improvements in striking and his wrestling dominance. He acknowledges Arman Tsarukyan's takedown of Makhachev in their first fight but believes Makhachev's size, cardio, and overall game will prevail. He mentions Tsarukyan's chin being questionable after being dropped by a 40-year-old Silva.

"I think he wins here I think he gets it done I think the wrestling will be there I think the Striking is going to be better than armen's"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Islam Makhachev to retain, citing Islam's championship experience, improved wrestling, and ability to handle five rounds. He notes that Arman Tsarukyan has improved but still relies heavily on wrestling and tends to tire in later rounds. Cody also mentions that Islam has already beaten Tsarukyan once and has only gotten better since. He suggests a live bet strategy or a small hedge on Tsarukyan if the parlay is still alive.

Live bet strategy: if Makhachev wins first round, cash; if loses, get better live price. Also mentions hedging with Tsarukyan if parlay is alive.
"I expect michev to win the longer it goes but if he can win the first round oh we're money if he loses the first round you could get a better live price on it in the betting Market"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior poise, technical striking, and defensive wrestling. He notes that Makhachev has become one of the best strikers in the division with a calm, principled approach, while Arman still fights with tension and wastes energy. Connor emphasizes that Makhachev's ability to stay relaxed and make good decisions under pressure gives him a clear edge, especially given their first fight where Makhachev outlasted Arman. He acknowledges Arman's improvements in finishing ability but believes Makhachev's overall game has grown more.

Odds opened at -336, now -366; Arman opened +278, now +299. Connor thinks the line is too wide but is confident in Makhachev.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Renato Moicano

Daniel picks Moicano as a significant underdog, citing that Makhachev's days at 155 are numbered and he is looking to move up to 170. He notes that Makhachev has shown vulnerability in recent fights, with Dustin Poirier stuffing 11 takedowns and Volkanovski stuffing 5. Daniel believes Moicano can match Makhachev's wrestling and has dangerous kicks and knockout power, as seen against Benoit Saint-Denis. He also mentions the location in Los Angeles with a large Armenian population as a motivating factor for Moicano.

Daniel took Moicano at +305 and says he would take him at +300 against any 155-pounder. He mentions the fight being in LA with a large Armenian population as a factor.
"I would take plus 300 on him against anybody I mean right now that's how good of a fighter he is so it's definitely a doger pass situation"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing his superior striking improvements against top competition like Dustin Poirier, Alexander Volkanovski, and Charles Oliveira. He expects the fight to feature more striking than their first bout, where Arman Tsarukyan was hesitant. James notes Islam's experience in five-round fights and counter-wrestling as key advantages, but acknowledges Arman's improved striking and power as potential threats. He mentions Islam's chin as a vulnerability, having been wobbled before, but ultimately believes Islam's overall skill set and prime condition will prevail.

Arman Tsarukyan at +310 is worth a one-unit shot for value
"I ultimately think Islam makev is going to come out with the win I think there's value in Arman surin's price tag at plus 310 he may be worth a one unit shot for me"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host acknowledges Tsarukyan has improved since their first fight and his power striking could cause issues. However, he believes Makhachev will create grappling opportunities and squeeze out a decision victory. He likes the fight to go to decision and does not like the heavy chalk on Makhachev but still expects him to win.

fight goes to decision
"I think makev will create grappling opportunities that he will be able to come out ahead on it might be grindy it might be slow it might not be the most entertaining but I think makev will squeeze his way …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees with Cody that Islam Makhachev will retain, noting that Islam has learned from the first fight and has a better understanding of Tsarukyan's style. He acknowledges Tsarukyan's knockout potential but believes Islam's experience and preparation will prevail. Paul also points out that Islam is a rightful favorite and a parlay piece for him this week.

Mentions Tsarukyan by knockout at +600 or +700 as a possible shot, but not banking on it.
"I think Islam retains as well minus 3557 at cool but is the best number on Market uh that I can see right now as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 14, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win a close decision. He argues that Arman Tsarukyan cannot finish Makhachev and is unlikely to win a decision due to Makhachev's status. He notes Makhachev's clinch work and body knees are key weapons, and he expects Makhachev to win 3-2 or 4-1 on the scorecards. He also mentions that Tsarukyan's low kicks are not as effective as he remembered.

decision
"mlam makev will win I think he'll win a close decision I think it'll be razor close"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev. He highlights Makhachev's unflappable poise and technical striking, contrasting it with Arman's all-or-nothing style that led to his loss in the first fight. Zane notes that Makhachev has improved significantly since then, becoming a more complete fighter, while Arman still tends to expend energy recklessly. He also points out that Makhachev's southpaw stance could trouble Arman, who hasn't looked great against southpaws. Zane acknowledges Arman's increased violence and finishing ability but believes Makhachev's calmness and defensive skills will prevail.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"I think we're both warming ourselves up here for the eventual we're picking Islam Makhachev to win the match."
Submission (brabo choke) R5 2:42 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 88 of 156 56% 147 of 222 5 of 16 31% 2 0 10:23
Dustin Poirier 0 74 of 183 40% 104 of 218 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 9 66% 46 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:23
Dustin Poirier 0 1 of 5 20% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 26 of 46 56% 30 of 50 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:49
Dustin Poirier 0 24 of 58 41% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:15
3 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 24 75% 24 of 33 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:10
Dustin Poirier 0 15 of 36 41% 16 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
4 Islam Makhachev 0 20 of 44 45% 29 of 53 1 of 6 16% 0 0 2:28
Dustin Poirier 0 23 of 61 37% 34 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
5 Islam Makhachev 0 18 of 33 54% 18 of 33 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:33
Dustin Poirier 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 88 of 156 56% 81 of 148 7 of 7 0 of 1 71 of 136 11 of 14 6 of 6
Dustin Poirier 74 of 183 40% 53 of 159 18 of 20 3 of 4 51 of 157 23 of 26 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 9 66% 6 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Dustin Poirier 1 of 5 20% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 26 of 46 56% 23 of 42 3 of 3 0 of 1 17 of 36 6 of 7 3 of 3
Dustin Poirier 24 of 58 41% 18 of 51 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 47 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0 15 of 21 2 of 2 1 of 1
Dustin Poirier 15 of 36 41% 13 of 34 1 of 1 1 of 1 15 of 35 0 of 1 0 of 0
4 Islam Makhachev 20 of 44 45% 17 of 41 3 of 3 0 of 0 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 23 of 61 37% 12 of 49 11 of 12 0 of 0 12 of 50 11 of 11 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 18 of 33 54% 17 of 32 1 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 31 1 of 2 0 of 0
Dustin Poirier 11 of 23 47% 9 of 21 1 of 1 1 of 1 9 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev confidently, citing his superior wrestling and pressure. He believes Islam will get takedowns at will and potentially finish Dustin Poirier. He acknowledges Poirier's toughness and one-punch power but thinks the grappling gap is too wide. He mentions a fantasy scenario where Poirier wins by submission but calls it highly unlikely.

"Islam makev is absolutely the pick and I am very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is heavily on Islam Makhachev, calling him his favorite play on the board and planning 100% exposure. He expects Islam to get takedowns and finish in the second or third round. He acknowledges Dustin Poirier's power and cheap price but sees a very limited path for Poirier. He will sprinkle a little on Poirier but is confident Islam gets the job done inside the distance.

fight doesn't go to decision (-550), Islam Makhachev wins inside the distance, Dustin Poirier to land more than 0.5 significant strikes (free square on PrizePicks)
"I'm going to have a ton of Islam in this matchup he's probably my favorite play on the board"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees Makhachev is the favorite but notes Poirier's puncher's chance and the appealing +500 underdog price. He discusses Poirier's win over Benoît Saint Denis, which he considers tainted due to Saint Denis having a staph infection. Cody believes Makhachev will take Poirier down and grind him out, likely submitting him late or winning by TKO. He also likes the over 2.5 rounds at +145.

over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"Obviously Makhachev is the favorite but he's starting to take on almost too much money... Poirier is a bonafide legend... the more you're getting these giant plus 500 type price tags on them the more appealing it does become."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Vreeland picks Makhachev but disagrees that he's a better striker than Poirier. He notes Makhachev's striking is overrated based on the Volkanovski fight. However, he believes Poirier will give up too many positions and won't be on his feet long enough to win a decision. Vreeland thinks Poirier's only path is a finish, but Makhachev is durable and has gone 25 minutes with Volkanovski. He suggests Poirier's props (KO or submission) are better value than his moneyline.

Poirier by submission +800 or +900, Poirier inside distance
"I don't think makev is as hitable as the people who Dustin PO is beating with his hands"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Islam's dominant grappling and improved striking, noting his win over Volkanovski. He points out that Dustin has faced grapplers like Khabib and Oliveira, but the Dagestani style is uniquely relentless. He mentions the possibility of Poirier landing a check hook like Martins did, but ultimately sees Islam's path to victory as more likely. He is rooting for Poirier but picks Islam as a pure pick.

"as a pure pick I will pick Islam but I'm rooting for porier here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jeff Fox picks Makhachev, calling him 'Khabib with hands.' He believes Poirier has no advantage anywhere, especially now that Makhachev is knocking people out on the feet. Fox sees no realm where Poirier is better and expects Makhachev to dominate.

"obviously makev is my pick here he's he's basically khabib with hands"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The host expects Makhachev to take the fight to the ground and submit Poirier, similar to how Khabib and Oliveira did. Poirier's grappling defense has been exploited by elite wrestlers, and Makhachev's pressure and top control should lead to a rear-naked choke. The host sees this as an easy win for Makhachev and likes the submission prop.

submission
"Give me Makhachev, Makhachev by submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Makhachev to win, noting Poirier's age (35) and the historical stat that fighters over 35 under 155 lbs are 0-15 in title fights. He believes Makhachev's takedowns will be there whenever he wants, but warns that Makhachev has had bad performances before (like against Adriano Martins and Volkanovski) and could get into trouble if he stands with Poirier. He suggests betting the over 1.5 or over 2.5 rounds instead of the moneyline at -700.

over 1.5 rounds, over 2.5 rounds (+145)
"I don't really like Poirier against any of these Dagestani wrestlers... takedowns are going to be there for Makhachev whenever he wants them."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev, predicting a first-round submission via arm triangle or Von Flue choke. He explains that Poirier's habit of going for guillotines leaves his arm in a vulnerable position. He also notes that Makhachev's striking has evolved to be more counter-based, reducing the chance of getting caught. He mentions Poirier's hip issues limiting his kicks and takedown defense.

Makhachev wins in round 1 by submission (arm triangle or Von Flue choke)
"I think he's going to lose very bad in round one with absolute [__] ease"
KO (head kick and punches) R1 3:06 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 1 24 of 29 82% 39 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:19
Alexander Volkanovski 0 4 of 6 66% 11 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 24 of 29 82% 13 of 16 9 of 11 2 of 2 7 of 11 8 of 9 9 of 9
Alexander Volkanovski 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 4 3 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, calling him a discount at -170. He thinks Islam will be all-in on wrestling this time, unlike the first fight where he took Volkanovski lightly. He notes Volkanovski is coming off the couch with no camp, while Islam had a full camp. He expects Islam to tire Volkanovski and win more decisively. He considers Islam safe to parlay.

parlay inclusion, odds comment: discount at -170
"I like Islam to win and uh honestly I think he's a discount right now he's only minus 170"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He notes that Volkanovski is coming off elbow surgery on short notice, while Makhachev is improving, especially in striking. In their first fight, Makhachev clearly won and controlled the grappling. Brady expects Makhachev to take Volkanovski's back and ride out rounds, winning a clear decision.

decision
"I got to go Islam here and I'm take Islam to win this fight by pretty dominant decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev, emphasizing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and had surgery, so he won't be at his best. He notes that Makhachev took Volkanovski down four times in their first fight and controlled him for eight minutes, and expects a similar or better performance in Abu Dhabi. Cody also mentions that Makhachev is in his prime and getting better, while Volkanovski just turned 35 and may not have celebrated his birthday properly.

Makhachev by decision, Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think the short notice takes a little bit away from it with Islam Makhachev he's 31 years old he's in the prime of his life he's still getting better"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev to win, citing that Islam is more physical, dictates the pace, and has the hometown advantage in Abu Dhabi where a close decision will go to Islam. He notes Volkanovski's elite feinting game and durability but believes Islam's weight cut and fatigue issues from the first fight are mitigated by Volkanovski taking the fight on short notice. He expects a competitive fight but sees Islam winning, possibly by decision, though he doesn't rule out a finish.

Islam minus 255, Volkanovski plus 250; mentions fight likely goes five rounds again
"I do have to pick Islam makev in this fight... I just think that this is Islam time at this weight class right now and I think he's going to get it done."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2023 (fight day)
Islam Makhachev

James predicted Makhachev would win by KO, citing that Makhachev had hurt Volkanovski multiple times in their first fight and that Volkanovski's conditioning might not be there on short notice. He noted that Makhachev's ground and pound could come into play if Volkanovski faded. James was very confident, placing a 5-unit bet on Makhachev moneyline and a half-unit bet on the TKO prop. He also mentioned that he switched from betting Volkanovski in the first fight to Makhachev in this rematch due to the damage Makhachev inflicted.

Makhachev by KO/TKO at +450 to +600; under 4.5 rounds
"I said Islam Makhachev is going to knock out Alexander Volkanovski... I cashed on Islam KO, I cashed on Islam money line, and I also cashed on the under four and a half rounds."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is a live underdog despite short notice. He has already fought Makhachev once and knows what to change. He is a freak athlete who can give a solid 25-minute performance. Makhachev is unlikely to finish him, and Volkanovski's cardio and durability should allow him to win a close decision. The line is too wide.

over 4.5 rounds (fight goes the distance)
"I'm going to take volkanovski I'm going to take him once again and hope that he can pull this one out Win It by decision down the stretch"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev, citing that Volkanovski is coming off the couch and recent surgery, which diminishes his preparation. He notes that Makhachev is in full camp, younger, and fighting in Abu Dhabi where the judges may favor him. Paul expects Makhachev to control the fight with takedowns and ground control, similar to their first fight, and sees value in Makhachev by decision at plus money.

Makhachev by decision (+185 to +200), Makhachev over 3 takedowns on PrizePicks
"I think you go Makhachev and because I have so much faith that Volkanovski truly is that badass I think I chase out Volkanovski by or by Islam Makhachev by decision again try to get some additional value"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev by third-round TKO. He believes Volkanovski will be weaker and smaller than in their first fight because he didn't have a full camp at 155 and is coming off a 145 fight. He thinks Makhachev will be bigger and stronger. He predicts Makhachev will land knees in the clinch, eventually catching Volkanovski with a knee to the face. He also notes that Volkanovski is rushing back from injuries.

Makhachev wins in round 3 by TKO
"I think makev is going to catch vog in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 49–46) R5 5:00 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 57 of 95 60% 95 of 135 4 of 9 44% 0 0 7:37
Alexander Volkanovski 1 70 of 143 48% 164 of 255 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 10 of 16 62% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:04
Alexander Volkanovski 0 11 of 23 47% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 32 59% 30 of 44 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:57
Alexander Volkanovski 0 19 of 34 55% 30 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Islam Makhachev 0 16 of 22 72% 20 of 26 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Volkanovski 0 14 of 37 37% 19 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:29
4 Islam Makhachev 0 4 of 9 44% 19 of 24 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:25
Alexander Volkanovski 0 6 of 13 46% 49 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Islam Makhachev 0 8 of 16 50% 8 of 16 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:36
Alexander Volkanovski 1 20 of 36 55% 52 of 72 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 57 of 95 60% 36 of 72 18 of 20 3 of 3 45 of 82 12 of 13 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 70 of 143 48% 37 of 96 21 of 33 12 of 14 58 of 125 6 of 10 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 10 of 16 62% 5 of 11 3 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 11 of 23 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 2 of 3 11 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Islam Makhachev 19 of 32 59% 12 of 24 7 of 8 0 of 0 13 of 25 6 of 7 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 19 of 34 55% 8 of 20 7 of 10 4 of 4 18 of 32 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Islam Makhachev 16 of 22 72% 10 of 15 5 of 6 1 of 1 14 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 14 of 37 37% 7 of 26 4 of 8 3 of 3 11 of 32 2 of 4 1 of 1
4 Islam Makhachev 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 6 of 13 46% 4 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
5 Islam Makhachev 8 of 16 50% 6 of 14 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 4 of 4 0 of 0
Alexander Volkanovski 20 of 36 55% 14 of 27 4 of 7 2 of 2 12 of 25 3 of 4 5 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev with high confidence, arguing that Volkanovski's size disadvantage and lack of one-punch power or submission threat make him an easy matchup for Islam. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is suspect (Ortega took him down twice) and that Islam's grappling is suffocating. He has a three-unit bet on Islam at -330 and expects the line to close around -500.

Islam safe for parlays
"I have a three unit moneyline bet on Islam at minus 330"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady is confident in Makhachev, citing his size advantage and elite grappling. He thinks Volkanovski's takedown defense won't hold up against a lightweight wrestler like Makhachev. He predicts a submission win in the third round, noting Volkanovski's toughness but believing Makhachev will eventually catch him.

third round submission
"I'm going to take mahachiev to win I'm gonna take him to win by submission and I'll say it happens in the third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody picks Makhachev but thinks the -400 line is too high and sees value in Volkanovski as a hedge. He notes Volkanovski's path to victory is keeping the fight standing and outworking Makhachev in later rounds, as Makhachev is a low-volume striker. He also mentions Volkanovski's durability and ability to escape submissions from Ortega. He suggests building parlays around Makhachev and throwing a small bet on Volkanovski at +300.

suggests hedging with Volkanovski at +300
"I'm picking Islam mankachev but I think the best path here is build parlays maybe around mankachev and then when it gets down to the main event don't be be too proud to just throw a couple bucks on vulcanovski …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev, emphasizing his superior grappling and ability to chain attacks. He notes that Volkanovski's get-up game, while improved, may not work against Makhachev's patient, trap-setting style. Connor highlights that Makhachev's team prepares specific counters to opponents' tendencies, and that Volkanovski's path to victory requires tiring Makhachev, which has never been done. He also mentions that Volkanovski's striking is better, but the wrestling threat neutralizes it.

"I think i'm still going to pick mocka chip here at the end of the day just because like... it's a hard place to start and be like but I also think he's going to lose."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexander Volkanovski

Volkanovski is the pound-for-pound best, undefeated in 22 fights over 10 years. His defensive grappling is elite; no one has held him down. Makhachev's competition is overrated—Volkanovski would beat everyone Makhachev faced. Volkanovski's cardio and striking will take over late as Makhachev tires from unsuccessful grappling. The size difference is a concern but Volkanovski's strength and bulking up mitigate it. At +300, the value is tremendous.

over 2.5 rounds at -175; fight goes all five rounds
"the fact that we're getting the number one pound for pound fighter a fighter who has been undefeated in 22 professional mixed martial arts fights over 10 years that you can get him at plus 300 is absolutely crazy to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Makhachev will take Volkanovski down at will and eventually finish him inside the distance. He notes Volkanovski was taken down twice by Brian Ortega and lucky to escape submissions, and that Makhachev's hands have improved. He sees Volkanovski's only path as a big overhand right, but thinks Makhachev wins 80% of the time via submission or TKO. He bet Makhachev inside the distance at -105 to -110.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105/-110
"I took some uh makachev inside the distance... I got one book it was minus 105 but another book it was minus 110."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Alexander Volkanovski, emphasizing Makhachev's size, strength, and grappling. He believes Makhachev will use clinch knees and head kicks to finish Volkanovski in the third round by TKO. He notes Volkanovski leads with his head, which Makhachev can exploit with knees.

third round TKO
"I'm gonna go with Islam makashev third round TKO"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane also picks Makhachev, agreeing with Connor that the grappling advantage is decisive. He notes that Volkanovski's takedown defense is not elite and that Makhachev's pressure and chain wrestling will likely overwhelm him. Zane points out that Volkanovski's best chance is to make it a striking match, but Makhachev's wrestling threat will stifle that. He also mentions that Makhachev's preparation is meticulous, targeting specific weaknesses.

"All right, we're both gonna pick uh... well, we're both picking makachev. He is the favorite here."
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:16 · UFC 280: Oliveira vs. Makhachev · Oct 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 19 of 39 48% 25 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Charles Oliveira 1 30 of 41 73% 72 of 86 2 of 3 66% 1 0 5:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 6 of 11 54% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:38
Charles Oliveira 0 12 of 18 66% 51 of 60 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:48
2 Islam Makhachev 0 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Charles Oliveira 1 18 of 23 78% 21 of 26 0 of 1 0% 1 0 1:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 19 of 39 48% 7 of 23 12 of 15 0 of 1 10 of 26 7 of 8 2 of 5
Charles Oliveira 30 of 41 73% 25 of 35 5 of 6 0 of 0 21 of 31 5 of 5 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 6 of 11 54% 1 of 5 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 4
Charles Oliveira 12 of 18 66% 9 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 3 of 3 4 of 5
2 Islam Makhachev 13 of 28 46% 6 of 18 7 of 9 0 of 1 8 of 21 5 of 6 0 of 1
Charles Oliveira 18 of 23 78% 16 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, arguing that Islam's wrestling and control will be the difference. He notes that Charles Oliveira's submission wins mostly come when he gets the takedown, not when he is taken down. He believes Islam can get takedowns, avoid submissions, and control the fight. He acknowledges Oliveira's danger but is confident in Islam.

"I like Islam to get the takedowns keep the control avoid the submissions I think islamankachev wins this fight I'm very confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Makhachev to win by TKO in the third round. He believes Makhachev will take Oliveira down easily and eventually get to a dominant position. Oliveira is dangerous off his back but has been finished before (seven finish losses). Makhachev's wrestling and top control should wear Oliveira down, leading to a ground-and-pound stoppage.

third round TKO
"I think Islam finishes some ground and pound TKO in that third round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Cody acknowledges Makhachev's relentless grinding and pressure style, but notes Oliveira's elite jiu-jitsu and striking power. He points out that Oliveira has been a live underdog before, with plus money wins in his last two fights. Cody is concerned about Makhachev's ability to hang in Oliveira's guard without getting submitted. He ultimately leans Oliveira because of the value and Oliveira's diverse finishing ability, though he admits it's a conflicted pick.

under in the fight
"ever so slightly I think I'm gonna go with uh my fellow Horseman Charles Oliveira"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor argues that Makhachev must grapple with Oliveira and that he is too dominant and technical on the ground to be swept or submitted. He notes that Oliveira has been outgrappled before by fighters like Paul Felder, Anthony Pettis, and Ricardo Lamas, and that Makhachev's patience and cardio will allow him to slow-cook Oliveira over five rounds. He emphasizes that Makhachev's submission defense and ability to avoid trouble in scrambles make him a safe pick.

"Even if Makhachev does end up in trouble so long as he isn't finished with one shot, we're gonna end up in a grappling sequence where Makhachev is just I think too dominant too technical."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win the lightweight title. He believes Islam's Dagestani wrestling and grappling will allow him to engage with Charles Oliveira on the ground where previous opponents were hesitant. Levi notes that Oliveira has been dropped in recent fights but opponents respected his guard and backed off, whereas Islam will not be intimidated and will follow up. He also mentions that Islam's striking, especially high kicks, is underrated and that he absorbs very few strikes. Levi acknowledges Oliveira's improved confidence and submission threat but thinks Islam's grappling pedigree and ability to neutralize submissions will be the difference. He bet 2 units at -162.

Bet 2 units at -162. Notes that Islam is a discount at these odds compared to his usual -300 to -600 lines. Expects the fight to favor Islam as it goes longer.
"I actually bet islamicachev in the spa and I bet I'm at -162."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling is the key factor; Oliveira hasn't faced a wrestler of this caliber since Kevin Lee. Makhachev has five-round cardio and can neutralize Oliveira's jiu-jitsu by passing guard and getting to dominant positions. Oliveira's striking advantage won't matter if the fight goes to the ground. Makhachev inside the distance at -105 is the pick, likely finishing in the second or third round.

Makhachev inside the distance at -105; under 2.5 rounds at -160; fight doesn't go to decision as parlay piece
"give me my hot Chef inside the distance minus 105. I love his money line as well where it's at minus 180"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

Paul is confident in Oliveira, citing that he grabbed Oliveira at +285 earlier and added more at +175. He questions Makhachev's striking defense, referencing the Adriano Martins knockout, and believes Oliveira's style is problematic for Makhachev. Paul thinks Oliveira can win on the feet or by submission, and doesn't understand the 66% win probability for Makhachev. He sees Oliveira as a very live dog.

bet at +285 and +175
"it's Charles Oliveira pass as far as I'm concerned I don't really understand jumping um at like 66 percent win percentage islamakachev in this situation whatsoever"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Oliveira

The MMA Guru picks Charles Oliveira over Islam Makhachev, despite being the underdog. He notes that BJJ fighters with hands have given Makhachev problems (e.g., Thiago Moises, Davi Ramos). He believes Oliveira's pressure and striking will rock Makhachev, leading to a guillotine submission in round one. He also cites Makhachev's lack of big-fight experience and the pressure of fighting in Abu Dhabi.

guillotine in round one
"I've got Charles Oliveira winning this one dominantly"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees that Makhachev should grapple and believes he will find takedowns against Oliveira, who is willing to engage on the ground. He notes that Makhachev's multi-directional takedown threats and ability to chain attacks will overwhelm Oliveira. He also points out that Oliveira's recent success is partly due to opponents being afraid to follow him to the ground, but Makhachev will not hesitate.

"I think that Makhachev is going to find that if he gets in on takedowns against Charles Oliveira, Charles Oliveira is probably gonna give many of them up."
WIN vs King Green
TKO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 14 of 32 43% 30 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:57
King Green 0 9 of 13 69% 11 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 14 of 32 43% 10 of 27 2 of 2 2 of 3 3 of 10 2 of 2 9 of 20
King Green 9 of 13 69% 2 of 5 6 of 6 1 of 2 4 of 8 3 of 3 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, believing he will dominate Bobby Green with his wrestling and grappling. He notes that while Green is a better striker, Makhachev has enough striking to avoid getting hurt and will then take the fight to the ground where he can control and finish. Angelo acknowledges that Makhachev hasn't faced top-ranked opponents yet, but he expects him to blow through Green as a heavy favorite. He also mentions a two-unit parlay with Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at around -180.

Two-unit parlay with Islam Makhachev and Arman Tsarukyan at approximately -180
"i think he absolutely dismantles bobby green i think he blows through bobby green islam is absolutely my pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by submission. He notes that Makhachev absorbs only 0.79 significant strikes per minute and no opponent has landed more than 13 strikes on him in the UFC. He highlights that Bobby Green has never faced a wrestler or grappler of Makhachev's caliber and has been taken down by lesser fighters. Brady believes Green's path to victory is a knockout, but Green hasn't knocked anyone out since 2013. He respects Green for stepping in on short notice but sees this as a terrible matchup for him.

Makhachev by submission; line is accurate but Brady won't bet at -700
"I got mahachev no hot take um but i think he gets it done and i will not be betting on bobby green like a lot of people seem to be doing but i can tell you i will also …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody is confident in Makhachev's grappling dominance, citing his wins over Dan Hooker, Drew Dober, and Thiago Moises. He notes that Makhachev's style mirrors Khabib's and that Bobby Green's path to victory is a knockout, which is unlikely given Green's lack of one-punch power. Cody acknowledges the wide odds but still picks Makhachev as a top parlay piece, though he mentions hedging with a small bet on Green by KO at +1100.

Green by KO +1100 (DraftKings), hedge suggestion
"i like islam i like him a lot you know he's just like your boy could be nurmagomedov"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel Levi picks Islam Makhachev to win via submission or ground-and-pound TKO. He notes that Bobby Green is durable and will stuff early takedowns, but Makhachev's relentless pressure will eventually wear him down. Levi mentions the fight goes the distance is plus 250 but does not think Green can survive five rounds. He emphasizes Makhachev's point to prove and expects a statement finish.

fight goes the distance +250 (does not think it hits)
"i think he does make a statement i think he submits bobby green and i think he gets his title shot"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Jacob picks Islam Makhachev but is hesitant, stating that if Bobby Green had a full camp, he would have been his lock of the week. He believes Green's pressure and volume are the best defense against takedowns, and that Green's unorthodox boxing could trouble Makhachev. Jacob thinks Makhachev might try to stand and prove a point, but ultimately expects him to win via wrestling. He also mentions placing a half-unit bet on Green at +550, showing his uncertainty.

Half-unit bet on Bobby Green at +550
"my pick's gonna be islam i'm not gonna pick bobby green but i'm just saying if there was ever anyone that could beat islam outside that top five it's gonna be bobby green"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev is a heavy favorite at -800, and the host believes he will dominate with his wrestling. He expects Makhachev to repeatedly take Green down and control him on the ground, though he thinks Green's defensive grappling may prevent a finish. The host notes Green's lack of power and predicts Makhachev wins by decision, also suggesting a bet on over 1.5 rounds.

over 1.5 rounds
"i'm gonna go islam hachev and uh in terms of a method of victory since you guys are putting a gun to my head i have a hypothetical gun to my head i'm going to go with this lama chevy …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul agrees that Makhachev is the clear winner but is tempted to sprinkle on Bobby Green at +600 due to the wide line. He notes Green's volume and pace could make it competitive if he avoids takedowns, but ultimately sees Makhachev's grappling as too much. Paul mentions the line has moved from -700 to -900, making it less appealing for a straight bet.

sprinkle on Bobby Green +600, Green by KO +1100
"i'm kind of tempted cody to wait and see how how wide this line gets and then maybe just sprinkle on bobby green a little bit"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev to win by third-round rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Bobby Green's counter-grappling and durability but believes Makhachev's size, physicality, and superior grappling will be too much. He notes that Green's output drops significantly when facing wrestlers, as seen against Thiago Moises and Francisco Trinaldo. The Guru also highlights that the catchweight of 160 lbs benefits Makhachev by easing his weight cut, potentially improving his chin and conditioning. He expects Makhachev to wear Green down against the cage, take his back in a scramble, and secure the choke in the third round.

third round rear-naked choke submission; odds are -800 (implied from 'eight to one favorite'); Makhachev by submission in round 3
"i'm going to go the third round very naked choke for islam makashev over bobby green"
WIN vs Dan Hooker
Submission (kimura) R1 2:25 · UFC 267: Blachowicz vs. Teixeira · Oct 30, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Islam Makhachev 0 2 of 3 66% 13 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:48
Dan Hooker 0 4 of 13 30% 19 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Islam Makhachev 2 of 3 66% 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Dan Hooker 4 of 13 30% 1 of 10 0 of 0 3 of 3 4 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev to win by dominant decision. He believes Makhachev's wrestling will be relentless and he will control Hooker on the ground. Hooker has good takedown defense on paper but hasn't faced a wrestler of Makhachev's caliber. Hooker has never been submitted, so a decision is likely. He respects Hooker for stepping in but thinks it's a tough matchup.

Makhachev by decision
"I'll say uh makachev does uh get it done by a pretty convincing dominant decision here."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Islam by decision, citing Hooker's durability and chin. He notes Hooker has only been knocked out twice (by Barboza body kick and Chandler) and has good submission defense. He thinks Islam's grappling will control the fight but Hooker will survive to a decision.

Islam by decision
"i agree with democracy call uh i go back to hooker's nep he's only been knocked out one time"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel picks Islam Makhachev, citing his dominant wrestling and submission skills, including making Tiago Moises tap. He notes Hooker's durability and striking but believes Islam's grappling will be the difference. Daniel is curious to see if Islam tests his striking but expects a dominant performance. He mentions the line is too high to bet.

comments on line being too high to bet
"i mean look if it's a pick um fight you got to go with islam but i ain't laying no minus 700"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 28, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's wrestling and pressure will be overwhelming for Hooker, who took the fight on short notice. Hooker's only chance is a KO, but Makhachev's striking has improved and he will likely take Hooker down repeatedly. Makhachev wins a decision or possibly a late finish.

Makhachev by decision -105, Hooker inside distance +675, Hooker by KO +850.
"I'm going to go with islam and i'm going to take him to win this fight via decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul picks Islam Makhachev by decision, noting Hooker's durability and that Hooker has never been submitted. He thinks Islam's suffocating top control and methodical approach will lead to a decision win. He mentions the over 2.5 rounds is -160 and he likes that as well.

Over 2.5 rounds (-160), Islam by decision
"maka jeff by decision is my official pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 24, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

The MMA Guru picks Islam Makhachev over Dan Hooker. He thinks Makhachev's grappling is superior and that Hooker's camp is not ideal. He predicts Hooker may win the first round with his length and clinch work, but Makhachev will take over in rounds two and three with takedowns and positional dominance. He expects a 29-28 unanimous decision for Makhachev, possibly a boring fight. He also notes that even with a perfect camp, Hooker would likely lose.

"i'm going with islam makashev here"
Expert Picks (10)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Angelo picks Islam Makhachev, emphasizing his relentless wrestling and ability to chain takedowns. He acknowledges Jack Della Maddalena's size and scrambling but believes Islam's wrestling pressure will be too much. He notes this is a tough fight due to JDM's size but still picks Islam.

"I'm gonna go with the wrestler here... I think the relentless wrestling pressure from Islam is going to be enough."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Big Brady picks Islam Makhachev, citing Jack Della Maddalena's history of making mistakes on the ground, such as surviving deep submissions against Anshul Jubli and Ramazan Emeev. He believes Makhachev will capitalize on those mistakes, get takedowns, and secure a submission, likely a D'Arce choke. Brady notes Della Maddalena has been taken down frequently and thinks Makhachev's grappling is on another level. He predicts a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Islamachev to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Cody agrees with Paul, emphasizing that Islam's wrestling and game plan are perfectly suited to beat Jack. He notes that Jack's takedown defense was exposed by Belal and Gilbert Burns, who are not on Islam's level. Cody highlights that Islam has Khabib in his corner and will stick to the game plan of taking Jack down and controlling him. He predicts a decision or late finish for Islam.

"ride this man like a miniature pony for 25 minutes, pick up a decision, or finish him late if the opportunity opens up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Connor picks Makhachev based on his superior wrestling and grappling. He notes that Makhachev has diverse takedown entries and rarely loses positions, while Della Maddalena has shown takedown defense issues and made bad grappling decisions against Belal. He acknowledges Della Maddalena's punching power but believes Makhachev's wrestling will be the deciding factor.

Odds: Makhachev opened -265, now -250; Della Maddalena opened +225, now +210. Connor mentions the line move and jokes about fight fixing.
"I still have to pick Makachev just out of hand here. I really cannot watch the body of work that both men have done and say that I trust JDM to stay on his feet and out punch Makachev at range..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Daniel acknowledges Jack's toughness and underrated grappling, but believes Islam's grappling is on another level. He notes that Jack has been taken down by lesser grapplers and that Islam's darce choke and grip strength are exceptional. He expects Islam to capitalize on the ground where others couldn't, but warns that if the fight stays on the feet, Jack could hurt Islam with body shots.

"I think I got to go with Makachev because I've seen Jack in those vulnerable spots on the mat and I think that Islam can capitalize where other guys weren't able to do it."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 9, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Lucrative James picks Islam Makhachev to win by decision. He believes Islam's grappling is a massive advantage, as he will take JDM down and control him, similar to his fights against Dustin Poirier and Alexander Volkanovski. He notes JDM's improved grappling defense but thinks Islam's wrestling and jiu-jitsu are too much. He predicts the fight goes the distance, with Islam winning via control and possibly threatening submissions but not finishing.

fight goes to decision
"I'm going to pick Islam Makv. I'm going to pick him via decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Makhachev's move to welterweight is calculated. He wears Della Maddalena down with wrestling. Della Maddalena's BJJ improvements keep him from being finished, but Makhachev wins on the scorecards to become champion.

"Look for Makachev to really wear Matalena down. Although I expect the BJJ improvements of Matalena to keep him out of trouble in terms of getting finished. Thus, I'm going to put pick Makashev to win this fight on the scorecards and new welterweight champion Islam Mahachev."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Paul believes Islam's wrestling will be the difference. He notes that Jack's takedown defense has improved but that Belal Muhammad had success wrestling late in their fight, and Islam is a much better wrestler. He also points out that Jack's win over Belal was a split decision and that he was controlled on the ground. Paul thinks Islam's size is not a concern and that he will bring the title back to Dagestan.

"the title's coming home to Dagestan on Saturday night."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena to win by TKO in round three or four. He believes JDM's grappling defense and scrambling ability will neutralize Makhachev's takedowns, and his striking volume and body work will take over in later rounds. He compares JDM to a better version of Dustin Poirier, who had success against Makhachev. The Guru sees Makhachev's path to victory only via early submission, which he doubts.

over 1.5 rounds (mentioned in prizepicks segment)
"I'm going with Jack Dela Madelena. I think this is actually Makashev's [ __ ] arm holding the belt, which doesn't bode well."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Islam Makhachev

Zane agrees with Connor, picking Makhachev due to his wrestling advantage. He highlights that Della Maddalena struggled with Belal's wrestling and that Makhachev is a much better wrestler. He also notes the weight class change and Makhachev's potential decline but still favors him.

Same odds commentary as Connor.
"So yeah, I think you have to pick Makachev, but that is fascinating. It's the champion taking literally the most dangerous..."