vs
-210 +185
UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023 · Lightweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield Next Fight
Age 33
Height 5' 9"
Reach 72.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 42
Height 5' 8"
Reach 71.0"
Weight 155 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Career Averages - Alexander Hernandez
4.31 SLpM
40.0% Str. Acc.
4.5 SApM
59.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jim Miller
2.92 SLpM
42.0% Str. Acc.
3.44 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.5 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
48.0% TD Def.
1.7 Sub. Avg
Alexander Hernandez
Moneyline
DraftKings -210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +125
Submission
BetWay +1800
Decision
BetRivers +310
Jim Miller
Moneyline
BetRivers +185
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +500
Decision
DraftKings +700
Alexander Hernandez - Fight History
LOSS vs Rafa García
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sterling vs. Zalal · Apr 25, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rafa García 0 59 of 169 34% 79 of 194 4 of 7 57% 0 0 1:50
Alexander Hernandez 0 50 of 145 34% 54 of 149 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rafa García 0 10 of 40 25% 15 of 45 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:28
Alexander Hernandez 0 8 of 27 29% 8 of 27 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Rafa García 0 20 of 66 30% 20 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:10
Alexander Hernandez 0 18 of 38 47% 18 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Rafa García 0 29 of 63 46% 44 of 83 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:12
Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 80 30% 28 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rafa García 59 of 169 34% 52 of 161 1 of 2 6 of 6 57 of 165 2 of 3 0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez 50 of 145 34% 40 of 126 9 of 14 1 of 5 50 of 145 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rafa García 10 of 40 25% 6 of 36 0 of 0 4 of 4 10 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 1
Alexander Hernandez 8 of 27 29% 5 of 20 3 of 4 0 of 3 8 of 27 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Rafa García 20 of 66 30% 19 of 65 0 of 0 1 of 1 19 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 18 of 38 47% 14 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 2 18 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Rafa García 29 of 63 46% 27 of 60 1 of 2 1 of 1 28 of 61 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 24 of 80 30% 21 of 74 3 of 6 0 of 0 24 of 80 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Rafa Garcia vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-145); Garcia (+120)

Round 1
Going forward, the last six athletes tonight hoist UFC records above .500. Even with a defeat, any one of the losing parties will not fall to that threshold either. Garcia (18-4, 6-4 UFC) has seen some serious success as of late, winning four of five including a knockout of Jared Gordon in his last time out. Hernandez (18-8, 10-7 UFC) finally gets to fight again after a UFC 324 match against Michael Johnson was nixed due to extreme betting irregularities. Referee Kerry Hatley will stand vigilant while the lightweights engage in sanctioned fisticuffs, with the two athletes not bothering to bump fists first.
They engage in some early jabbery and pokery, with Garcia looking to follow his ones with right hands. He scores one to drive Hernandez back a few steps, reddening the Texan’s nose immediately. Garcia nails the front leg with a kick so hard that Hernandez has to recoil it behind his other leg, and he circles on the outer edge looking for a way in. Garcia plans a kick on the front leg again while Hernandez is about to engage, shutting that attack down. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, getting it off just before Garcia can hit him with his overhand right. Garcia bounces and works his way forward, staying away from Hernandez’ kicks as he jabs straight ahead. Garcia wings a short left hook that brushes the chin, putting “The Great Ape” on notice.
Hernandez shadowboxes on the outside edge, unable to get close, while Garcia can seemingly close the distance at will. Garcia plans a kick on the inside calf, and Hernandez gives him back a loud body kick to think about. Garcia plods forward using a tight, high guard, keeping Hernandez to largely single strikes. Garcia stings his opponent and sees an opening to drop down to his knees to get hold a double, and he tosses Hernandez down for a second. Hernandez climbs back up, and Garcia elevates him with a high-crotch lift and slams him down with gravitas. Hernandez appears no worse for wear as both men gets back to their feet without issue, but it is Garcia who continues to press the action. Hernandez comes up short on his winging punches, but a left hand brushes open a cut on Garcia’s left eye. Hernandez is shoved to his knees, and he eats a few shots before the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 2
Picking up right where he left off, Garcia is the pressure fighter. He works his way in to drive a left hand down the middle, drawing a thin trickle of blood from his foe’s left nostril. Hernandez keeps his wits about him as Garcia plods towards him, but the volume from Garcia has diminished to a degree. Garcia walks his man down to put three fists on the face, and he chases but does not cut off “The Great Ape” as he stays right in front of him. Hernandez has to desperately scramble from side to side to get away, and the accuracy of Garcia is something to behold as Hernandez appears shocked when he gets caught repeatedly.
Hernandez tries to back Garcia off with a head kick, but Garcia blocks it and flashes a devilish grin. Garcia counters a front kick with a right hand down the pipe, snapping the head back and forcing Hernandez to circle rapidly to his right away from the power. The fists of Garcia have quickly transformed Hernandez’ visage into a bloody mess, while Garcia’s light wound on his eyebrow opens up again during a fierce but brief exchange. Garcia wades forward, stops, winds up and throws, and he tags Hernandez flush. He changes levels to break things up, and Hernandez keeps to his feet and backs off. Garcia jabs him up and starts talking to him as the round ends, with both men getting into the other’s face. Hatley has to separate them and usher them back to their respective corners.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Garcia
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Garcia

Round 3
Garcia does not stay seated in his corner long enough to get his eye cut sealed, as he is amped up and ready to throw hands. He does exactly that when the third round kicks off, stepping right into the pocket to throw hammers. Hernandez has to inevitably retreat due to the pressure, so Garcia does not let him off the hook. Garcia throws everything and the kitchen sink, and Hernandez’ chin is granite but as it starts to fade, he starts to engage less and circle more. With Hernandez backpedaling, Garcia rushes after him and pursues a takedown.
Hernandez stands him up with his back to the fence, keeping his balance as blood leaks from his nose. Garcia elevates and dumps Hernandez down, and when Hernandez stands, Garcia belts him with a sharp combination. Hernandez throws back no matter the position, but Garcia is unafraid of the return offerings. Hernandez starts to pick things up, almost certainly down on the scorecards, and he manages to back Garcia up after landing cleanly a few times. The fighters duke it out one after the other, with big damage developing around Hernandez’ left eye. No one cares about damage or blood or anything, engaging in an absolutely rip-roaring slugfest for the remainder of the round. Damage was inflicted aplenty in their 15-minute engagement, and the fighters squash any inkling of a beef right after the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Garcia (30-27 Garcia)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Garcia)

The Official Result
Rafa Garcia def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez as the better fighter, citing his explosiveness, speed, cardio, and power. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges that Rafa García is the better straight wrestler, but believes Hernandez scrambles well and has good cardio. He expresses concern that Hernandez needs to pull the trigger and not be outworked.

"Alexander Hernandez is the better fighter, so he's the pick. I just need him to actually pull the trigger."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Rafa García

Big Brady picks Rafa García over Alexander Hernandez. He sees advantages for García in boxing volume, wrestling, durability, and cardio. He expects a close fight but believes García's pace and cardio will be key, predicting a split decision win.

García wins by decision
"I'm going to take Garcia Garcia by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism, wrestling, and speed. He notes that Garcia's game tends to stall against better athletes who can hit harder, and Hernandez fits that mold. He also points out that Hernandez's recent wins, though against mediocre competition, have built confidence. He believes Hernandez will use his movement and perimeter striking to avoid Garcia's pressure and win rounds.

"I'm inclined to take Hernandez."
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

The host thinks Garcia is the better fighter but had a poor last performance. He expects a stand-up fight where Garcia can pressure Hernandez and test his gas tank. He notes Hernandez slows down and Garcia is durable, having been finished only once. He will bet Garcia +3.5 because Garcia is very likely to win the third round, and the fight likely goes to decision.

Garcia +3.5 rounds; fight likely goes to decision; great for live betting
"I will be betting Rafa Garcia plus 3.5 just because... I think it's very very very very very likely Garcia will win the third round."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his athleticism and power advantage. He expects Hernandez to win the first two rounds and possibly fade in the third, but still outwork Garcia. He notes Garcia's toughness but believes Hernandez's level is higher.

"I like Alexander Hernandez in this one. I think he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Rafa García

Garcia is on a two-fight winning streak with good durability and volume striking. Hernandez has a four-fight winning streak but relies on power and wrestling, and he has a questionable gas tank. Garcia should be able to stuff takedowns, outwork Hernandez on the feet, and pull away in the later rounds to win a decision.

"I think we'll see Garcia shuck off the takedowns of Hernandez or at least showcase enough resistance there that Hernandez can't grind out rounds. And then on the feet, I think Garcia has good enough uh durability that he should …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean pick date unknown
Rafa García

Zane picks Garcia as an aspirational pick, believing Garcia's durability and improved striking (as seen against Jared Gordon) could allow him to pressure Hernandez and exploit his psychological fragility. He acknowledges Hernandez's athleticism and wrestling, but thinks Garcia can win a close fight if he applies relentless pressure. He admits it's a stylistic risk but is willing to be wrong.

"I'm going to take Rafa Garcia to do the close run thing."
CANCEL vs Michael Johnson
UFC 324 · Jan 24, 2026
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, citing his speed, power, and recent resurgence with back-to-back knockouts. He acknowledges Michael Johnson's impressive resume and takedown defense but worries about Johnson's age and chin. He notes Hernandez's tendency to swell and bleed easily as a concern, especially in Vegas where damage matters.

I'm probably gonna throw a money line on him here. I'm just hoping the minus 152 tightens a bit.
"I think Alexander Hernandez is going to be a little too fast, a little too clean. I like the power on the Hernandez side."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady believes Hernandez is finally putting it together, on a four-fight win streak, and filling out at lightweight. He thinks Michael Johnson is too old at 39 and benefited from recency bias after an upset win over Zellhuber. Brady expects Hernandez to win by decision, as Johnson won't push a pace that gasses Hernandez.

Hernandez by decision
"I gotta go Hernandez here. You know, it's actually kind of funny. Both these guys seem to whenever you least expect to just find a way to lose."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is hesitant due to Hernandez's mental fragility. He notes Hernandez's confidence-based fighting style and recent wins, but worries about his tendency to underperform. Cody believes Hernandez's power and wrestling give him the edge, but he is not fully confident.

"I'm jumping back on team Hernandez. So, if he loses, it's entirely my fault. The universe does not want me to win money on this guy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Connor is torn but leans Hernandez, believing Johnson's win streak is smoke and mirrors. He notes that Hernandez has better wins and is younger, but acknowledges Johnson's speed and durability. Connor thinks Hernandez needs to pressure and wrestle to win, and that Johnson's takedown defense can be frustrated. He ultimately picks Hernandez but with low confidence.

"I'm gonna pick i'm gonna pick hernandez still just because I really think michael johnson's late career win streak is smoke and mirrors."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Hernandez based on momentum and age advantage. He notes that Hernandez is on a four-fight win streak, while Johnson is 39 and speed is the first thing to go. However, Vreeland is not fully confident because Hernandez's wins are against lower-level competition and Johnson can beat anyone on a given night.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez based off the momentum."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

James picks Hernandez after tape study, citing his wrestling upside, better footwork, and durability. He notes Johnson is older and that Hernandez is on a better trajectory. However, he is not fully confident and will analyze further for betting.

"I got Alexander Hernandez in this one. I feel like he's going to get it done."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

The host picks Hernandez by knockout but with low confidence, acknowledging that Johnson could outstrike him over three rounds. He notes Hernandez's power is the difference-maker, but he relies on landing a big shot. He says Johnson is live as an underdog and won't fault anyone taking the plus money.

Hernandez by knockout
"I'm going to go Hernandez here in Hernandez by knockout. Very low confidence level though."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Paul leans toward Alexander Hernandez, citing his youth and recent winning streak. He notes Hernandez's power and wrestling threat, but is wary of his inconsistency. Paul believes Hernandez can catch Johnson, who is older and has been knocked out before. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.

Under 2.5 rounds
"I don't mind an under two and a half at like plus 125 in this fight. I think both guys have paths to getting a finish."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, calling it a 'fraud check' for Alexander Hernandez. He believes Johnson's hand speed will be too much, and that Hernandez will fail to adjust, leading to a KO. He predicts a round two KO.

KO in round two
"I'm going to go with Michael Johnson. If Hernandez wins, he's truly improved beyond belief."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Michael Johnson

Zane picks Johnson, arguing that Johnson has never lost confidence or changed his style, and is still fast and durable. He notes that Hernandez has gone through crises and may not pressure effectively. Zane believes Johnson's speed and shot selection will give Hernandez problems, and that Hernandez's recent wins are less impressive. However, he acknowledges Hernandez could wrestle and win.

"I really think michael johnson could win this and yeah, I think i'm gonna pick him."
KO R2 3:46 · UFC Fight Night: Lopes vs. Silva · Sep 13, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 1 30 of 75 40% 30 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 23 of 98 23% 23 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 12 of 36 33% 12 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 11 of 53 20% 11 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 1 18 of 39 46% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Carlos Diego Ferreira 0 12 of 45 26% 12 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 30 of 75 40% 22 of 63 4 of 6 4 of 6 20 of 61 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 23 of 98 23% 8 of 56 11 of 35 4 of 7 23 of 96 0 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 12 of 36 33% 7 of 28 2 of 4 3 of 4 12 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Carlos Diego Ferreira 11 of 53 20% 3 of 29 6 of 19 2 of 5 11 of 51 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 18 of 39 46% 15 of 35 2 of 2 1 of 2 8 of 25 0 of 0 10 of 14
Carlos Diego Ferreira 12 of 45 26% 5 of 27 5 of 16 2 of 2 12 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Diego Ferreira vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-140); Ferreira (+115)

Round 1
Jeff Rexroad is the referee. Ferreira takes the center of the cage in the early going. Hernandez is attacking with leg kicks. A solid jab lands for Hernandez. Ferreira catches a kick to the body and attempts to counter. Ferreira launches a big right hand and Hernandez circles away. A right hand makes Ferreira stumble briefly. Hernandez jabs and Ferreira lands a body kick. Another jab for Hernandez. Ferreira lands a body kick. Lots of movement for Hernandez which is making it difficult for Ferreria to find his range. A front kick to the body lands for Ferreira. They trade and Ferreira ends the exchange with a knee. A straight lands for Hernandez. Ferreira continues to walk Hernandez down. Ferreira lands a front kick to the body. A close opening round.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira
Mike Pendleton scores the round: 10-9 Ferreira

Round 2
Hernandez kicks the body. Ferreira catches and attempts to counter. He gets poked in the eye in the process and time is called. Ferreira doesn’t need much time to recover. A counter left lands clean for Ferreira in an exchnage. Ferreira lands a body kick as Hernandez moves forward. Ferreira just misses on a head kick. A solid right gets through for Hernandez. Ferreira blocks a hard body kick. Hernandez continues his movement based approach, but he’s not landing much. Another straight shot lands for Hernandez. A left hook and a body kick connect for Ferreira. Ferreirra presses forward and
Hernandez drops him with a perfectly-timed counter right hand to the temple. Smelling blood, Hernandez pounces and unleashes a hailstorm of violent ground-and-pound. Rexroad gives Ferreira plenty of leeway — perhaps too much — but after about eight unanswered punches, the fight is mercifully called.
That’s a resounding victory for the San Antonio native, who has won four consecutive Octagon appearances. Ferreira ends the fight with a nasty hematoma on the side of his head.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Diego Ferreira via TKO (Punches) R2 3:46
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, noting he is hitting his stride lately, explosive, well-rounded, and a good athlete. He says this feels like a great fight for Hernandez, fighting an older guy at home (San Antonio). His only concern is that Hernandez cuts easily, which could affect judging. He says if the odds are reasonable, he will bet on him.

If they're reasonable in any fashion, I will be betting on him.
"Alex is going to be the pick. My only concern is that he cuts so damn easily."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Big Brady leans toward Ferreira because Hernandez fades late in fights. He notes Hernandez is explosive early but has poor cardio and was put together on short notice. Ferreira is durable and has finished fights late. He predicts Ferreira wins by third-round knockout after weathering an early storm.

Third round knockout
"I'm going to say Ferrer wins this fight by third round knockout."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Connor picks Ferreira, emphasizing that Hernandez's inability to handle pressure will be exploited. He notes that Ferreira is a dangerous grappler and powerful striker, and Hernandez's wrestling won't be an easy out. Connor acknowledges Ferreira's age but says if not for age, he would pick Ferreira without question.

"I will agree I'm flighty on it because of age, but if it weren't for age, I would be picking Ferreira. No question."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Hernandez is making a quick turnaround, but the host believes he is up against it. He expects Ferreira to stave off Hernandez's early power and explosivity, then wear him down with pace, pressure, and grappling, winning on the scorecards.

"I think we'll see Fera do a good job in terms of staving off the early threat that Hernandez presents with this power and explosivity and then really start wearing the veteran down with his pace, pressure, and grappling. Look …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

The MMA Guru picks Carlos Diego Ferreira as an underdog, believing he will 'fraud check' Alexander Hernandez. He highlights Ferreira's win over Michael Johnson and competitive fights with Gamrot and Rebecki. He argues Hernandez struggles against veteran fighters and that Ferreira is a step above Hernandez's previous opponents. He predicts a second or third round TKO.

Round 2 or 3 TKO
"Carlos Diego Feer is going to beat Alexander Hernandez. ... I'm going to go with Carlos Diego Vega getting this one done. Second or third round TKO finish."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Carlos Diego Ferreira

Zane picks Ferreira, citing his experience, aggressive inclination, and power. He notes that Hernandez is allergic to pressure and struggles when backed up, while Ferreira will pressure him. Zane acknowledges Ferreira's age (40) but believes his style and dangerous grappling will neutralize Hernandez's wrestling and force him into uncomfortable exchanges.

"I kind of have to pick Diego Ferreira. Because that Damon Jackson fight was just last year."
WIN vs Chase Hooper
KO R1 4:58 · UFC 319: du Plessis vs. Chimaev · Aug 16, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Hooper 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Alexander Hernandez 1 17 of 38 44% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Hooper 0 20 of 82 24% 20 of 82 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:05
Alexander Hernandez 1 17 of 38 44% 18 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Hooper 20 of 82 24% 7 of 62 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 17 of 38 44% 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 33 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Hooper 20 of 82 24% 7 of 62 7 of 12 6 of 8 20 of 81 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 17 of 38 44% 14 of 35 3 of 3 0 of 0 13 of 33 0 of 0 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Chase Hooper
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-345), Hernandez (+275)

Round 1
Getting away from the prelims to the four-bout chunk on the ESPN network, we start with a lightweight clash that pits a young-up-and-comer against someone who used to hold that status before aging out of it. Hooper (16-3-1, 8-3 UFC) is full of things and vinegar at the age of 25 on a five-fight win streak—one shy of a career long. His opponent Hernandez (16-8, 8-7 UFC) has won lately to edge himself above the .500 UFC record line, although a defeat tonight would even him out again. The two men have referee Jason Herzog to thank for how the officiating will play out in the next 15 minutes or fewer, and they opt to bump fists.
Hooper starts off with long front kicks from either limb to the body. The kicks set up one up high, and he chains a spinning back fist into it. Hernandez steps in to kick the body, and Hooper nearly reaches him on the way out with his far longer limbs. Hernandez tries to close the distance again, and Hooper uses his front kick to frustrate his foe. Hernandez manages to get in to score a pair of punches, only to have to back off and wait for Hooper to throw a naked kick to counter with an overhand left. Hernandez sticks out a straight right hand, and Hooper whizzes past him with a combination.
Hernandez sits down on two counterpunches when Hooper kicks at the ribs, and he hurls a big left hand as Hooper shoots in for a single-leg entry. Hernandez breaks out of it and circles away, blocking a chasing strike or two including a spinning back fist. Hooper plants two punches on the jaw, and Hernandez reaches him at the end of a left. Hooper’s front kick is mixed in, and he shoots in low for a takedown and lands on his own face. Hernandez scoots away and lets Hooper back up, and he measures the longer fighter with looping punches out of range. Hernandez connects on a few punches and evades a long right hand, while parrying two subsequent strikes. “The Great Ape” hits with a left, and Hooper partially rolls with it and replies with doubled left hooks.
Hernandez keeps moving from side to side, and he lances a fierce right hand down the middle to separate Hooper from his senses. Hooper collapses to his knees and tries for a desperate takedown to save himself, and Hernandez pounds on him from both sides of the head with seconds to go in the round. As Hooper takes damage, Herzog waves the fight off
, as he does not feel that Hooper should have a few more seconds to ride out the round and recover. Hooper is crestfallen but nods in understanding when informed exactly what happened, while the victorious Hernandez raises his arms and parades around the cage to celebrate.

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Chase Hooper R1 4:58 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Angelo notes Hooper has filled out physically, improved his takedowns, and is undefeated at 155. He thinks Hernandez is inconsistent and undersized, and that Hooper's height and BJJ advantage could be key. However, he acknowledges Hernandez's takedown defense and toughness, making this a close fight. He slightly leans Hooper but is not confident.

Considering betting Hernandez to win a round (+3.5) at plus money
"I'm going to slight lean Chase. Chase is going to be the pick, but like by this much."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Big Brady picks Chase Hooper to win by second-round TKO. He notes Hernandez struggles with high pace and has been broken in many fights. Hooper is massive, pushes a pace, and will drain Hernandez's gas tank. He thinks Hooper will chain takedowns and submission attempts, finishing Hernandez in the second or third round. He acknowledges Hernandez could hurt Hooper early, but if Hooper gets rolling, it's a bad matchup for Hernandez.

Hooper by TKO, round 2
"I think Chase Suber is going to get it done. So, give me Chase to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round TKO."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Connor agrees with Zane, picking Hooper. He notes that Hernandez is a solid wrestler but crumbles under pressure, and that Hooper's aggressive style and confidence will cause Hernandez to fold. He references the Damon Jackson fight as a blueprint for how to beat Hernandez with pressure. He also notes that Hooper's grappling is creative and can create submissions from any position.

"I think I agree. There's also the fact that Chase Hooper is the kind of grappler who doesn't even necessarily need to complete a takedown. To teleport to his opponent's back or drop for a leg lock or whatever creates …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

The host notes Hooper's recent improvements and chaotic striking approach. He expects Hooper to wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission, likely in the second or third round.

submission in the second or third round
"Given his recent improvements and his chaotic striking approach, I think he can wear down Hernandez and eventually find a submission probably in the second or third round"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

The Guru leans towards Alexander Hernandez, though he expresses some hesitation. He believes Hernandez's explosiveness and body shots will be effective against Chase Hooper. The Guru notes that Hooper's grappling is improved but he lacks damaging ground and pound and often wins by submission threat rather than actual submissions. He worries about Hernandez's close fight with Austin Hubbard but thinks Hernandez will have more moments in the scrambles and on the feet.

"I'm going to lean towards Alexander Hernandez here for some reason. I don't know why I'm feeling it, but I think Alexander Hernandez is going to show up and have a, you know, I beat Benil Darush, by the way, …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Hooper, citing Hernandez's tendency to collapse under pressure. He compares Hernandez's fight with Damon Jackson, where Jackson's pressure led to Hernandez crumbling. He notes that Hooper is pathologically aggressive and will put pressure on Hernandez, and that Hooper's grappling is dynamic enough to create submissions even without completing takedowns. He acknowledges the risk of Hooper getting knocked out but believes Hernandez lacks the dog mentality to capitalize.

Hernandez opened +200, now +260; Hooper opened -145, now -310. Zane notes the line is getting wide on Hooper.
"I got, I got to pick Hooper. Yeah. I think you have swayed me. I mean, look, it is a fight where Hooper could get fucking knocked out. Oh yeah. Yeah, absolutely. Like he is. I mean, Hernandez is a …"
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Vettori vs. Dolidze 2 · Mar 15, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 59 of 149 39% 87 of 186 4 of 5 80% 0 0 6:39
Kurt Holobaugh 0 71 of 171 41% 106 of 215 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 68 32% 24 of 70 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Kurt Holobaugh 0 26 of 75 34% 26 of 75 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 30 of 62 48% 37 of 75 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:01
Kurt Holobaugh 0 38 of 78 48% 48 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 7 of 19 36% 26 of 41 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:29
Kurt Holobaugh 0 7 of 18 38% 32 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 59 of 149 39% 36 of 117 10 of 15 13 of 17 45 of 129 2 of 3 12 of 17
Kurt Holobaugh 71 of 171 41% 39 of 122 21 of 35 11 of 14 63 of 160 8 of 11 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 68 32% 12 of 51 3 of 8 7 of 9 22 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kurt Holobaugh 26 of 75 34% 11 of 49 8 of 16 7 of 10 26 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 30 of 62 48% 17 of 47 7 of 7 6 of 8 21 of 51 2 of 3 7 of 8
Kurt Holobaugh 38 of 78 48% 23 of 58 11 of 16 4 of 4 31 of 68 7 of 10 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 7 of 19 36% 7 of 19 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 5 of 9
Kurt Holobaugh 7 of 18 38% 5 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Kurt Holobaugh
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-192), Holobaugh (+160)

Round 1
Must-win fights are the name of the game at this UFC Vegas 104 card, as formerly highly touted prospect Hernandez (15-8, 7-7 UFC) has fallen on hard times as of late, winner of just two of his last six. Meanwhile, Holobaugh (21-8, 1 NC; 2-5 UFC) is on his third run in the Octagon, and this stint is more successful than others in the past as he has won a few times. Referee Kerry Hatley will take charge of the lightweights in this next match, and they start things off by bumping fists. Both men let their legs fly, smacking one another with heavy low kicks to start off. Holobaugh jabs to the body and follows with a high kick that bangs into Hernandez’ chest, and the Texan parries another advance from Holobaugh. Hernandez stands his man up with a left hand, and he slides away from any counter. Kicks on the inside and outside of Holobaugh’s leg land, and he surges into action, swarming forward with punches that catch Hernandez on the chin. They bang heads briefly, and before Hatley can say something, Hernandez stops and asks if Holobaugh is alright. They get right back to it, chasing one another around with powerful punch combinations. Holobaugh sneaks in a body kick, and Hernandez responds in kind. This happens again, just with Hernandez striking first. The lightweights take turns engaging, and they continue mirroring one another with their exchanges. One lands, the other gives him something back to think about, and the series carries on. Hernandez comes out swinging with big fists, and Holobaugh slips them and tries to do the same. When Hernandez has his gloves bang into Holobaugh’s, Holobaugh retaliates with a clubbing right hand behind the ear and floors Hernandez with another right hand. Hernandez springs right back up and sits down on a left hand that momentarily stuns his opponent. Hernandez uses his jab to set up strikes, pumping it and putting at least one or two behind it. Holobaugh is just as active, racing at Hernandez and getting met with a takedown attempt. Holobaugh considers grabbing the cage, but he instead sets up a guillotine choke and hits the ground on his back. He continues squeezing the submission, and Hernandez signals a thumbs-up before the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 2
Holobaugh has a fire lit under his belly between rounds, and he channels that by marching Hernandez down and throwing everything he can at him. Punches, knees, elbows and even a spinning wheel kick come from “The Hurt,” who is putting the hurt on Hernandez in the early going. Hernandez is tough as a two-dollar steak, and he fires back at his constantly advancing foe. Hernandez chops at the lead leg a few times, and Holobaugh has to change stances because of it. This does not slow Holobaugh, who instead plods forward throwing hands. Hernandez catches him with a right hand, and Holobaugh drills him with his own overhand right that staggers the Texan. Hernandez uses the wall behind him to gather his bearings, and he pushes off of it and re-engages. He only lands a few strikes before Holobaugh is back to imposing his volume and will on his quickly bloodied opponent. Holobaugh checks a kick and meets Hernandez with a right hand, and Hernandez sits in the pocket trying to trade back. When Holobaugh overswings with a right hook, Hernandez takes the wind out of his sails by nailing a perfect double-leg takedown. Hernandez keeps Holobaugh on his back, working with ground strikes while Holobaugh rolls for an armbar. Hernandez is having none of it, staying as heavy as he can while drumming him with several left hands. Holobaugh sells out for the armbar, and he does not have the right grip so Hernandez is in no danger. “The Great Ape” hammers Holobaugh with several big punches, mixing between smothering top control and fierce offense. The round ends with Hernandez hacking at his foe with elbows.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Holobaugh

Round 3
There is one last clap of hands for the lightweights to engage, and Hernandez immediately shoots in for a double and plants Holobaugh on his back. Hernandez moves to side control, and Holobaugh scrambles and sits up. Hernandez drags him down from behind, and he reasserts himself in half guard while isolating an arm-triangle choke. When Holobaugh scrambles, Hernandez is able to jump on top of him and claim full mount for a second before getting pulled back to half guard again. Holobaugh’s scrambles nearly result in him getting caught in an arm-triangle, and Hernandez is a 155-pound lead weight on his chest. Hernandez has his leg wrapped around Holobaugh’s, and when he moves it, Holobaugh explodes back to his feet. It is now punching time, as Holobaugh wants to slug his foe in the chops. Hernandez looks for the takedown that does not come, and Holobaugh marches him down loaded for bear. Hernandez ducks a punch and hits a crucial double, and he lands in half guard and quickly wraps up a head-and-arm choke. Holobaugh is not overly concerned, with Hernandez not able to get leverage on the other side to lock it down. Holobaugh grabs hold of a kimura—could we see a third in consecutive fights?—but it is not there. Hernandez frees his limb and opens up with torrid offense from up top, laying into “The Hurt” with everything he has left. The two go the distance, and the second round may be the one to decide the victor.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Holobaugh)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Kurt Holobaugh via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kurt Holobaugh

Angelo picks Kurt Holobaugh over Alexander Hernandez. He criticizes Hernandez's inconsistency and tendency to wear damage, while Holobaugh's pressure and striking should be effective. Angelo notes that judges favor visible damage, which Holobaugh can inflict. He calls it a 'recipe for success' for Holobaugh.

"I'm actually going to pick Kurt here. I think the pressure the Striking all of that combined with the fact that Alex wears damage on his face and the only thing Vegas judges give a [__] about is tiny little …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kurt Holobaugh

Big Brady picks Kurt Holobaugh as an underdog, citing Alexander Hernandez's inconsistency, poor cardio, and tendency to crumble under adversity. He notes that Hernandez has lost to fighters like Bill Algeo, Thiago Moises, and Damon Jackson when pressured. Brady believes Holobaugh is tough, has solid cardio, and good grappling, and can have success on the feet as well. He predicts a close decision win for Holobaugh, possibly winning the second and third rounds.

Holobaugh by decision
"I'll take the dog here and Hollow ball to get it done... plus 155 I'll take Hollow ball here to win."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown

Cody picks Angela Hill as a dog, citing her high volume and ability to mix in takedowns. He notes that Hill's fights are often close and she tends to fight to the level of her competition. He believes she can exploit Yasmin Lucindo's reliance on takedowns and lack of striking volume.

"Angela Hill dog money is almost kind of like a system play because she kind of fights the level of her competition every single fight. They're very very close. They kind of end up being coin flippy."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean pick date unknown
Kurt Holobaugh

Connor picks Holobaugh because he enjoys rooting for him more, but acknowledges it's a lean. He notes that Holobaugh's relentless pressure and willingness to brawl could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, as seen in his losses to Damon Jackson, Bill Algeo, and Billy Quarantillo. However, he admits Holobaugh makes terrible decisions and is less athletic.

"I think I'm gonna pick Hollabaugh just because I enjoy rooting for him more."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert pick date unknown

Daniel does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup briefly but does not state a preference or bet.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Kurt Holobaugh

The host believes Holobaugh will dictate the pace, which is bad for Hernandez. He expects Holobaugh to touch up Hernandez over 15 minutes and potentially find a finish after a bad takedown attempt from Hernandez in deep water, either by knockout or club and sub.

finish by knockout or club and sub
"I believe halah should be able to dictate the pace of this matchup which usually is not a good sign for Hernandez that will lead halot to touching up Hernandez over the course of 15 minutes and potentially even finding …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown

Paul also picks Angela Hill, emphasizing her experience against Brazilian opponents and her ability to mix takedowns. He notes that Lucindo struggled against Amanda Lemos when taken down and reversed. He believes Hill can bank early rounds with volume and takedowns, then survive the third.

"I'm actually on Angela Hill as well. I mean, uh you can tell that she's slowing down. Her last fight, the speed's there in the first round. The second round, you're starting to see her fade a lot more. body …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez, liking him at lightweight where he performs better. He notes Hernandez trains at Factory X Muay Thai now and has a win over Jim Miller. He thinks Hernandez's shot selection and leg kicks will be effective against Kurt Holobaugh, who is 38 years old. He also mentions Hernandez can use offensive takedowns while fresh. He considers Holobaugh's win over Trey Ogden but believes Hernandez is a step above.

"I'm going to go with Alexander Hernandez I like him at lightweight does anyone else like Alexander Hernandez at lightweight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Zane picks Hernandez for athletic reasons, noting that Hernandez is a rock-solid wrestler and hits harder than Holobaugh's recent opponents. He acknowledges that Holobaugh's brawling pressure could cause Hernandez to collapse mentally, but believes Hernandez's physical advantages and the fact that Holobaugh makes terrible decisions give him the edge.

Odds: Hernandez opened -218, now -197; Holobaugh opened +178, now +181. Zane calls it a sensible line.
"I'm gonna stick with Hernandez."
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 63 of 191 32% 65 of 193 0 of 12 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 79 of 204 38% 91 of 217 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 44 22% 11 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 23 of 60 38% 23 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 22 of 66 33% 22 of 66 0 of 7 0% 0 0 0:05
Austin Hubbard 0 26 of 71 36% 32 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 31 of 81 38% 32 of 82 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Austin Hubbard 0 30 of 73 41% 36 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 63 of 191 32% 32 of 142 25 of 42 6 of 7 60 of 177 3 of 14 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 79 of 204 38% 41 of 144 22 of 38 16 of 22 78 of 203 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 10 of 44 22% 2 of 27 7 of 15 1 of 2 10 of 42 0 of 2 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 23 of 60 38% 10 of 43 4 of 7 9 of 10 23 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 22 of 66 33% 12 of 53 7 of 10 3 of 3 19 of 58 3 of 8 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 26 of 71 36% 13 of 48 8 of 16 5 of 7 26 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 31 of 81 38% 18 of 62 11 of 17 2 of 2 31 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
Austin Hubbard 30 of 73 41% 18 of 53 10 of 15 2 of 5 29 of 72 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Austin Hubbard
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-215), Hubbard (+170)

Round 1
When this lightweight affair concludes, one of these two fighters will lift their UFC records to .500 while the other will drift further in the wrong direction. Hoping this second stint courtesy of a finals appearance in TUF 31 will go swimmingly, Hubbard (16-7, 4-5 UFC) comes to blows with Texas native Hernandez (14-8, 6-7 UFC). There is no plan of a glove touch to the precede the action while referee Tyler Tomlinson watches on. Don’t worry, fight fans, ref Dave Seljestad is done for the night. He can’t hurt you anymore. Hubbard presses forward right out of the gate, pursuing Hernandez all across the cage after him. The two trade leg kicks until Hernandez lashes out with a right hand down the pipe. Hernandez tosses out a high kick that is blocked, and a right hand is not. Hubbard ducks down and directly into a right hand, and Hernandez keeps it going with a solid uppercut. Hubbard remains in front of Hernandez, but Hernandez is quicker and beats him to the punch. Hubbard jabs his foe in the chest with a kick, and Hernandez responds with a one-two. Hubbard slips back and tags “The Great Ape” with a left hook, backing Hernandez off. Hubbard chases, going for a single and then attacking up high with a kick. Even getting countered often, Hubbard remains right in front of the Texan, and he dings him with a step-in knee as Hernandez goes after a single. The knee busts Hernandez’ nose open, and a thin trickle of blood leak out of it. Hernandez pays it no mind and connects with a one-two, only for Hubbard to come back firing with a body kick. Hubbard misses a front kick by a whisker, and Hernandez’ body shot finds its home. Hubbard whiffs on a right hook and his front kick pushes off the chest, but the active Hernandez tags him with a few kicks and a left hand. Hubbard skims a right hand over the top, and Hernandez is there with two hooks that buckle Hubbard’s knees but do not send him down. “Thud” gathers his thoughts and has a thudding kick bounce off the guard. Hernandez rushes forward with a left hand and a one-two, and Hubbard barely bats an eye and instead attempts an axe kick. The horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 2
Striking exchanges from both men open up the round, with both fighters landing at the end of a few successful blows. Hubbard punches his way into a takedown attempt, and Hernandez rebuffs him with ease and attacks the body. They let go with hooks at the same time, and Hernandez manages to get the better of it. Hubbard continues to maintain heavy pressure, and Hernandez beats him to the punch and drops him to his hands with a straight right hand down the pipe. Hernandez clips Hubbard with a pair of punches, and Hubbard sits down on a low kick that turns “The Great Ape” around. Hubbard drops for a single, and Hernandez manages to fight it off and hop around the cage to stay upright. Hubbard strings together a few punches into a body kick, and Hernandez swats him back with a kick to the thigh. Hernandez sneaks a high kick up, and a left hand gives Hubbard some pause, but Hubbard’s durability holds up. Going after a single, Hubbard turns the corner and takes Hernandez down to his seat from behind but cannot keep him there. Hernandez bounces back up and flashes out a few jabs. Hubbard drills him with a shovel uppercut, and he goes after a takedown, misses and blasts a leaning Hernandez in the face with a crisp knee. Hernandez appears no worse for wear from the destructive blow, and he reaches Hubbard with a left hook. Hubbard slides back and lifts up a knee, and the foot bounces into Hernandez’ cup as Hernandez does not say a word. They do not take a break, instead taking turns to throw at one another. Hernandez punches his way into a double-leg takedown, and Hubbard scoots his way to the fencing to not get taken off his feet. Hubbard breaks free and further bloodies Hernandez’ nose with a left hand. Body shots are traded from the fighters, and they crack one another with right hooks to follow. Hubbard drives forward with a body kick, and Hernandez stands firm and blasts him with a left hand at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly almost immediately to start the last round, and Hernandez charges at Hubbard throwing hands and ending a string of strikes with a knee. Hubbard’s own nose is marked up from oncoming fire, but he is right in there readying himself for a firefight. When a Hubbard takedown is rebuffed once more, he is shoved back and does not eat a strike on the way out this time. Hernandez chains a body shot into two lunging punches, throwing himself off-balance while missing with the strikes. Hubbard catches him with a front kick, two clean punches and a spinning back kick, and Hernandez has to shake it off before responding. When Hernandez darts in, Hubbard has a right hand ready to pop him. Hubbard punches a few times, and Hernandez ducks and eats a knee flush. Hubbard stabs a front kick to the body, fails on a takedown and wings a right hand over the top. Hubbard’s front kick finds its home again, and they jab at the same time. Hernandez dodges a front kick to put a left hand in Hubbard’s face, and Hubbard sells out for a takedown he just cannot find. Hernandez circles around in hopes of taking Hubbard’s back during the attempt, and Hubbard stands and leans against the cage. The two split, and Hernandez connects with an elbow. Hubbard digs a knee to the breadbasket while Hernandez throws hammers, and “Thud” knocks his head around with a combo of hooks. Hubbard’s front kick lands cleanly again, and he hurts Hernandez with another short flurry. Hernandez bites down on his mouthpiece and throws back hard, and they slug it out with punches, kicks, knees and a spinning kick for good measure. The round ends as they go for broke, blood flowing out of Hernandez’ face from numerous clean connects.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Mike Fridley scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Hubbard (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Austin Hubbard via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez, acknowledging his talent but inconsistency. He notes Hernandez has all the tools but often makes poor decisions. He believes this matchup allows Hernandez to be himself, but he is not confident enough to bet on Hernandez as a favorite. He would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog.

Would only bet if Hernandez is an underdog
"I'm picking Alexander Hernandez here... I am not going to bet on him as a favorite"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Austin Hubbard

Big Brady picks Austin Hubbard as a live dog, citing Hernandez's poor cardio, lack of heart, and short-notice fight at elevation. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, while Hubbard's toughness and cardio will allow him to take over and win a decision, possibly with a late finish.

"I like Hubbert here as a dog I'm going to pick him to win this fight by decision but I wouldn't rule out like a late finish because Hernandez just crumbles time and time again at elevation short notice um …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Austin Hubbard

Cody picks Hubbard, citing Hernandez's inconsistency and cardio issues. He notes Hubbard's toughness and experience at altitude, believing Hubbard can outlast Hernandez and win a decision or late finish.

"I think I'm gonna take hubard"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Connor picks Hernandez despite his confidence issues, noting that Hernandez has the physical tools to win. He points out that Hubbard is a talentless bully who only wins by being more physical, and Hernandez has the speed and power to overwhelm him. However, he acknowledges the altitude and short notice could be factors.

"I'm going to take Hernandez though. I'm going to take Hernandez to any, any fight where it seems even remotely possible that Hernandez could win it by mistake."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Austin Hubbard

Daniel Vreeland hesitantly picks Austin Hubbard, despite calling him 'harmless Hubbard.' He dislikes Alexander Hernandez, calling him a fraud and a bust. Vreeland notes that Hernandez has lost four of his last five and that Hubbard is durable and has shown output. He is not confident but refuses to bet on Hernandez.

"I'm going hubard here not confidently because how can you be confident in and harmless hubard"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

The host leans with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez, believing he will land better shots, defend Hubbard's grappling, and eventually find a knockout in the second or third round. He notes both fighters are from Colorado but gives the edge to Hernandez.

"I do have to lean with the physicality and explosiveness of Alexander Hernandez which should allow him to land better shots defend the grappling of hubard and eventually find a Knockout in the second or third round"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Austin Hubbard

Paul picks Hubbard, agreeing with Cody about Hernandez's cardio and durability. He thinks Hubbard's pressure and altitude advantage will be key. He expects Hubbard to win by decision or submission.

"hubard will be the pick for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Hernandez after flipping a bottle of mayonnaise, which landed on Hernandez's side. He acknowledges Hernandez is better at lightweight and dangerous, but worries about altitude and Hernandez's tendency to gas out. He notes Hubbard trains at elevation but believes Hernandez's lightweight performances are superior. He predicts a TKO early in the fight.

"We're going with Alexander Hernandez here over Austin hubard TKO early in the fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Austin Hubbard

Zane picks Hubbard, citing the altitude and Hernandez's short notice as key factors. He notes that Hernandez has confidence problems and may struggle with the weight cut and altitude. Hubbard is a big strong guy who can grind out a decision if he imposes his physicality.

"I'm going to pick Hubbard with this fight being at altitude, and Hernandez coming in on short notice with his confidence problems."
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Curtis 2 · Apr 06, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 1 32 of 87 36% 56 of 119 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:22
Alexander Hernandez 0 42 of 85 49% 85 of 135 3 of 7 42% 0 0 6:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 27 29% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Alexander Hernandez 0 10 of 21 47% 36 of 49 1 of 4 25% 0 0 2:35
2 Damon Jackson 0 19 of 49 38% 19 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 23 of 52 44% 33 of 65 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:22
3 Damon Jackson 1 5 of 11 45% 27 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:19
Alexander Hernandez 0 9 of 12 75% 16 of 21 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 32 of 87 36% 20 of 69 6 of 11 6 of 7 29 of 80 0 of 3 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 42 of 85 49% 20 of 60 10 of 12 12 of 13 30 of 68 11 of 16 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 8 of 27 29% 4 of 23 1 of 1 3 of 3 8 of 26 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 10 of 21 47% 3 of 13 2 of 3 5 of 5 8 of 19 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Damon Jackson 19 of 49 38% 11 of 35 5 of 10 3 of 4 19 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 23 of 52 44% 13 of 40 4 of 5 6 of 7 20 of 47 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Damon Jackson 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 2 3 of 4
Alexander Hernandez 9 of 12 75% 4 of 7 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2 6 of 9 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez (147.5: Missed Weight) vs. Damon Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-205), Jackson (+170)

Round 1
Serving as the co-headliner is a match previously scheduled at featherweight. Instead, Hernandez (14-7, 6-6 UFC) botched his weight cut and exceeded the limit by a pound and a half on his second attempt. He surrenders a percentage of his purse to Jackson (22-6-1, 1 NC; 5-4-1, 1 NC UFC). Both men have struggled as of late, with Hernandez going 1-3 in his last four while Jackson has dropped two in a row. One of these two will get in the win column shortly, if referee Jason Herzog has anything to say about it. Hernandez offers an apologetic glove touch, and the magnificently maned Jackson does not accept it. Jackson prods out a front kick, and he wings a right hand that misses by a wide margin. Hernandez comes back at him with a head kick that is easily blocked, and he whips a kick low at the lead wheel. Jackson throws back his own body kick, and he turns Hernandez with a low kick. They both load up with right hands, and Jackson attacks the calf again. Jackson just misses with a front kick aimed at the jaw, and he catches a lazy kick aimed his direction and grabs hold of the younger man. Jackson grapples Hernandez from behind, getting away with a fence grab as Jackson tries to get a hook in standing. Jackson scores a number of knees to the back of the thigh, until Hernandez explodes and gets away. Hernandez manages to lure Jackson into a brief brawl, and Jackson sits down on a calf kick to again fluster Hernandez. Hernandez keeps a poker face and boxes Jackson in the jaw. Jackson catches the body kick and tries to procure a takedown with it, and he presses Hernandez to the wire. Jackson doggedly pursues a single, and he places “The Great Ape” gingerly on his seat. Jackson looks for offense when he gets there, only to find Hernandez springing back up after all of that hard work. The round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 2
Jackson begins the round with a head kick attempt, and he bloodies up his foe’s nose during a punch exchange. Jackson surges forward with two punches, and he turns his hips into a kick to the side. Hernandez tries to throw back a few times, but he misses the mark each time. Jackson jabs his way forward, and he hammers the calf with a kick. Jackson keeps doing work on the calf, and they both let loose with big haymaker right hands. Hernandez times a leg kick with an overhand right, and he counters with a solid right hand when Jackson tries to come back at him. Hernandez zips a left hand around the guard, and he leans back to let a head kick buzz past him. Hernandez chops at the front leg of his foe, and that reminds Jackson to do the same. Jackson rushes forward with punches, and Hernandez strafes to the side and eats a body kick on the way out. They both swing for the fences, and Jackson’s chin holds up although a cut opens up on the bridge of his nose. Hernandez targets jabs on that bloody spot, and he gets off a calf kick as he backs away. Jackson punches twice and hits a double, putting Hernandez on his side. This results in a stalemate until Jackson springs into action, and when Hernandez stands up, Jackson takes his back and gets a hook in. Jackson slithers his arm around the chin, and he lets it go to slug Hernandez in the chops repeatedly. The round ends as Jackson is pounding on him.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Jackson only needs a few seconds before delivering a fierce leg kick. When he throws a second, Hernandez times it and rifles a right hand straight down the middle. Jackson goes down like a sack of bricks, and Hernandez leaps on top of him and starts hunting for a choke. Jackson scrambles to get out of the initial danger, and Hernandez climbs into full mount and squeezes down with an arm-triangle choke. Jackson turns all the way around and fights back to his feet, and Hernandez charges at him throwing bombs. Jackson uses that momentum to turn the corner and pursue a takedown, and “The Great Ape” digs in his heels and does not hit the mat. Hernandez considers going for an ankle pick, and Jackson kicks off the cage and manages to take Hernandez’ back. Hernandez gets flattened out as Jackson starts working him with fists, until he powers back to his feet and tries to buck Jackson off of him. Jackson keeps tight and hangs on until Hernandez manages to work him off. Jackson turns through and goes for a single, dropping down to his knees to complete it. Jackson grinds on the younger fighter when he cannot complete the takedown, and they jockey for position against the cage. They turn one another around without gaining an advantage or landing much of note. Jackson sticks his tongue out, and he lands several elbows and punches to separate right before the horn sounds. Scores could be all over the map.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Damon Jackson def. Alexander Hernandez via Split Decision (27-30, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Alexander Hernandez but with very low confidence. He acknowledges Hernandez is the better overall fighter and athlete, but he hates the weight cut to 145 lbs, which he thinks makes Hernandez slower, chinny, and potentially cardio-compromised. He notes that Damon Jackson is the type of grappler who can spoil plans and slow the pace. Angelo says he is only picking Hernandez because he is better everywhere except BJJ, but he hates the weight cut.

"very low pick on Alexander Hernandez"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady picks Alexander Hernandez to win by first-round knockout. He notes that Hernandez has the tools to win, including takedown defense to stuff Jackson's shots, and is the much better striker. He questions Jackson's chin and believes Hernandez will knock him out early. However, he acknowledges that if the fight reaches the second round, Hernandez tends to slow down and get broken.

win by first round KO
"Hernandez ko1 for me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Cody also picks Hernandez but is wary of betting him at -210. He notes Hernandez's explosive first round and power, but his cardio fades after 7.5 minutes. Cody thinks Hernandez likely disposes of Jackson in the first round, but if it goes longer, Jackson's craftiness and submission threat could flip the fight. He calls it a dodgy proposition.

"Alexander Hernandez gets the job done and takes him out in the first seven and a half minutes... but it's a dodgy proposition"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Damon Jackson to upset Alexander Hernandez. He argues Hernandez is a front-runner who fades after round one, citing examples like the Billy Quarantillo fight where Jackson dragged him into deep waters. Vreeland believes Jackson's awkward length and grappling can neutralize Hernandez's early explosiveness, and if the fight goes past the first round, Jackson will take over. He notes Hernandez's recent win over Bill Algeo was unimpressive because Algeo is not a finishing threat.

"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson here for the upset."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez is faster, more explosive, and has more power. Jackson will struggle to close the distance and get takedowns. Hernandez can land big shots and likely knock Jackson out. The under 2.5 rounds is a good play as the fight should end early.

Hernandez by KO; under 2.5 rounds
"I expect that to produce a Hernandez knockout but what I'm going to be looking to hone in on is the under two and a half which isus 170 a little bit chalky"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez but is hesitant because Hernandez is inconsistent. He likes Hernandez's athleticism, speed, strength, and wrestling, and thinks he can ground-and-pound Jackson. However, he worries about Hernandez's cardio and confidence, noting that he falls off after the first round. Paul sees a path where Hernandez finishes Jackson early, but if it goes longer, Jackson's BJJ and durability could cause problems.

"I am going with Alexander Hernandez... he just seems maybe not the better fighter but just the better athlete"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

The host struggles with this pick, noting Jackson's surprising wins (e.g., over Jim Miller) but criticizes his lack of punching conviction. He picks Hernandez as the younger, more explosive fighter with reach and good initial takedown defense. He envisions Hernandez starting fast and clipping Jackson, though he admits Jackson could lay on him. He ultimately goes with Hernandez, calling Jackson 'Mega Mind' and hoping to see him removed from the UFC.

"I think I'm going to go with the younger guy in Alexander Hernandez here he's got reach he has got good initial takedown defense"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dawson vs. Green · Oct 07, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 0 75 of 156 48% 76 of 157 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:35
Alexander Hernandez 1 110 of 244 45% 119 of 257 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 16 of 39 41% 16 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 61 44% 27 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bill Algeo 0 28 of 59 47% 28 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Alexander Hernandez 1 44 of 89 49% 52 of 100 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
3 Bill Algeo 0 31 of 58 53% 32 of 59 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Alexander Hernandez 0 39 of 94 41% 40 of 96 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 75 of 156 48% 25 of 80 45 of 66 5 of 10 75 of 154 0 of 2 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 110 of 244 45% 46 of 156 33 of 50 31 of 38 108 of 241 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 16 of 39 41% 1 of 12 11 of 19 4 of 8 16 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 27 of 61 44% 6 of 28 7 of 15 14 of 18 27 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Bill Algeo 28 of 59 47% 12 of 35 15 of 22 1 of 2 28 of 58 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 44 of 89 49% 21 of 62 13 of 16 10 of 11 43 of 88 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Bill Algeo 31 of 58 53% 12 of 33 19 of 25 0 of 0 31 of 57 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexander Hernandez 39 of 94 41% 19 of 66 13 of 19 7 of 9 38 of 92 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bill Algeo vs. Alexander Hernandez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Algeo (-135), Hernandez (+114)

Round 1
Switching over to the main card, but still broadcasting on ESPN+ stateside, two featherweights right on the borderline of .500 UFC records will collide with intentions of stay on the right side of that line. Former lightweight Hernandez (14-6, 6-5 UFC) will try again in the lower weight division of 145 pounds, and Algeo (17-7, 4-3 UFC) will welcome him back down with bad intentions. With oversight and not a lick of nonsense from referee Keith Peterson, the two men tap their gloves together. Algeo switches stances when he starts the fight, reaching out with kicks from both legs. Hernandez swings a head kick at him that buzzes past his hair, and Algeo avoids it and salutes the strike. Both men trade low kicks, and Hernandez goes after one to the body. Algeo checks a kick and kicks the calf back, and he leans back from a power right hand that misses him by a small margin. Hernandez kicks his foe in the chest, and Algeo springs into action with two hooks and a high kick. Hernandez ricochets off the fencing to reset, and he leans low to block a head kick before the full power is on it. Hernandez aims punches to the midsection, and he opens up the head with these strikes. “The Great Ape” connects with a solid leg kick, and he ducks a head kick. Algeo kicks him in the gut with a side kick and sends him flying, and Hernandez springs back to his feet and is ready to block a spinning kick fired his way. Hernandez goes up high with his shin, and Algeo is able to defend against it and chip at the lead wheel with another kick. Algeo targets the body with a kick, and he snaps out a jab, and turns a full rotation to spin with a kick to the body. Algeo looks for an intercepting knee when Hernandez ducks to punch the body, and Hernandez aims his heavy strikes that are coming up just short. Hernandez digs punches to the midsection, and he keeps his guard up high in time to defend against a hook kick. Hernandez fires back with a kick that glances off the shoulder of his foe, and Algeo replies with a number of pawing jabs. Hernandez sweeps out with a body kick, and Algeo is right there to give him a low kick back when he sets his leg down. Hernandez looks for a leaping combination, only for Algeo to shoulder roll every blow and circle on the outside. Algeo threatens with a kick and a spin kick, but Hernandez does not bite on them and lets him turn back around. One body kick from Algeo concludes the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 2
Round 2 begins with a half-hearted glove touch, and Hernandez follows it quickly with a kick to the ribs. Hernandez loads up on a right hand, and Algeo shakes it off and jabs the body. Hernandez puts power behind his strikes, and Algeo stays elusive and meets him with a knee up the middle. Algeo ducks a haymaker, and a second strike from “The Great Ape” bounces off the chest. Algeo jabs the nose and body, and Hernandez starts to crowd him and force exchanges in the pocket. The Texan parries a few punches and comes back with a big right hand, and Algeo turns to the side and lets it glide past him. Algeo fires off a right hand to the eye socket, and Hernandez complains that it was an eye poke. Peterson calls time and allows Hernandez to recover, and replays show it was the knuckle of Algeo’s thumb that jammed into the eye – which could be considered a legal blow. However, if Algeo’s thumb was not locked into the fist, it would be the legitimate foul, and Hernandez continues to take the time he needs as Peterson brings in the doctor to check his condition. After two minutes and 15 seconds, Hernandez informs the medical staff and Peterson that he is good to go, and the fighters touch gloves and have no ill will about the perceived foul. The action begins immediately, and Hernandez is headhunting with power strikes and stalking Algeo down. Algeo skirts on the outside and lands a few kicks to varying targets, with his intention of keeping Hernandez missing while he fights at his preferred range. Hernandez loads up on everything, and a few right hands get Algeo’s attention. When one solid right hook slams into Algeo’s chin, Algeo is energized and starts putting some power into his own strikes as well. Algeo turns his hips into a low kick, and a straight left hand that follows sits Hernandez down. Hernandez pops back up and ties Algeo up, trying to get his bearings back after getting his bell rung. The two separate, and Hernandez comes back with a vengeance. Algeo slips to the side and jumps at his man with a knee that pops into the nose, bloodying it up instantly. Algeo spins with an elbow that clacks into Hernandez’ cheek, and Hernandez tanks it and is loaded for bear. Hernandez plods forward and digs a punch to the body, and he chains a head kick into it that makes Algeo shake his head. Hernandez targets the body and goes up high, and Algeo leans back to take the worst out of it. The round ends with both fighters trading.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo

Round 3
The featherweights are amped up and ready to finish the fight off with style, as the limited crowd gives it up for the two fighters. Hernandez races out of his corner with bad intentions, throwing hammers until he bullies Algeo to the wall and goes after a takedown. Algeo shuts it down and pushes Hernandez back, and he busts Hernandez in the chops with a straight right hand. Algeo stays loose while Hernandez is a coiled string, and Hernandez just misses a counter left that is a bit too low to find the chin. Algeo uses his traditional martial arts stance to put two side kicks on the chest in rapid succession, as range-keeping weapons that disrupt the bombs Hernandez looks to throw. Algeo suddenly whips a kick up high to hurt Hernandez, and he strings several punches into a body kick to conclude it with an exclamation point. Hernandez is tough as nails, as he swings back with all his might, with looping right hooks and heavy kicks to the body. Algeo reaches his man with a sweeping right hook and a left to the body, and Hernandez gives him a hard right hand back on the chin. Hernandez follows it with a second, and Algeo cannot quite shoulder roll that one. Algeo dings his man with a left hand with his thumb outstretched, and Hernandez tells Peterson he was poked in the eye again. Peterson asks Hernandez to keep fighting, and he does just that. Both men keep trading, with Hernandez kicking the body and aiming a few to the head as well. Hernandez steps in with a right hand on the jaw, and he slams his shin on the waist to follow. Algeo meanders back, and Hernandez blasts him with a huge right hook. Algeo takes it and does not bat an eye, instead going right back at his foe and making sure to not allow Hernandez to land strikes for free. Hernandez continues to stalk Algeo down, unloading anything he can throw, and they both land massive shots at the same time. Algeo tags Hernandez with a knee, Hernandez cracks him with a right, and Algeo trips him up and throws him to the mat. Hernandez climbs back up, and the scrap comes to a conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Algeo (30-27 Algeo)

The Official Result
Bill Algeo def. Alexander Hernandez via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo, citing Alexander Hernandez's poor cardio, durability, and heart. He notes that Hernandez has been finished in the second round in most of his losses and that Algeo is tough, has never been knocked out, and can maintain a high pace. He expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, allowing Algeo to secure a second-round finish, either by knockout or submission.

second round finish for Bill Algeo
"I'm going to take Bill algae to win this fight I'll take Bill algae to win this fight by second round knockout could be a submission as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez, noting his athleticism, power, and improved cardio. He believes Hernandez is still in his prime and that Algeo's lack of physicality and takedown defense will be exploited. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round if Hernandez fades, but expects Hernandez to win.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm gonna go ahead and agree again... gotta take another dog somewhere and I think Alexander Hernandez has a very good chance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Daniel Levi picks Alexander Hernandez hesitantly, acknowledging his history as a 'talented flake' but seeing improvement in his last fight against Jim Miller. He believes Hernandez is the better athlete, faster, and more explosive, but questions his mental consistency. He notes that Bill Algeo has lost to similar talented flakes like Ricardo Ramos and Andre Fili. Levi thinks if Hernandez keeps his composure, he can win, but it's a tough call.

"I think on his best day he can beat Bill algo so hopefully it's his best day I'll pick him to win this fight"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Lucrative James bet Hernandez as an underdog and sees him winning round one at a high clip, possibly by knockout. He believes Hernandez's wrestling is underrated and he can get takedowns at will. He thinks Algeo does not have the pressure or pace of Billy Quarantillo or Drew Dober, so Hernandez won't gas as badly. He calculates Hernandez should be around -150 based on round-by-round analysis.

bet as underdog, line moved to favorite
"I like Alexander Hernandez side here I bet him as an underdog"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bill Algeo

Algeo has a better gas tank and an unorthodox style that will trouble Hernandez. Hernandez has a history of slowing down in later rounds, and Algeo's awkward movement and pressure should wear on him. Algeo may even get a late submission. The line movement toward Hernandez makes Algeo even more valuable. Expect Algeo to pull away in the second and third rounds.

late submission
"I think alio starts to pull away with this in deep water maybe even gets a late finish in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Paul picks Hernandez, citing his superior athleticism and power. He notes that Algeo is not physically strong and has been taken down in every UFC fight. Hernandez's wrestling and striking should be enough to win, and Paul likes the plus money value.

"Alexander Hernandez for me... at plus 125 that would be my pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Alexander Hernandez. He believes Algeo is very tricky to finish and underrated, with wins over Joe Anderson Brito and Herbert Burns. He criticizes Hernandez's cardio at featherweight, noting he gassed after round one against Quarantillo. He predicts Algeo will capitalize on Hernandez's mistakes and get a third-round finish, possibly by submission or TKO. He also mentions Algeo's potential for a post-fight mic moment.

third round finish, submission or TKO
"I'm going bilalgia I think he's very tricky to finish and I don't like Hernandez at featherway"
Jim Miller - Fight History
WIN vs Jared Gordon
Submission R1 3:29 · UFC 328 ·
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 9 of 17 52% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Jared Gordon 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 9 of 17 52% 5 of 13 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gordon 7 of 16 43% 4 of 11 2 of 3 1 of 2 7 of 15 0 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Jared Gordon
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Gordon (-325), Miller (+260)

Round 1
It’s Jim Miller (38-19, 1 NC; 27-18, 1 NC UFC) fight day, the first one of these this year. Coming up on 43 years of age, the New Jersey native still has a ways to go to reach 50 UFC bouts. He can get to 47 tonight once the cage doors close and referee Keith Peterson says go, when he battles Gordon (21-8, 1 NC; 9-7, 1 NC UFC). This lightweight clash kicks off with no nonsense and no fist bump either.
Miller stalks Gordon down slowly and cautiously, keeping his gloves up to defend a high kick. Miller leaps forward and catches Gordon with a shovel uppercut. Gordon has to take a quick count of his teeth and absorbs a knee from up close. Miller breaks off and takes a body kick. Miller throws a low kick that bangs into Gordon’s cup, and Gordon tries to take him down and abandons it to adjust his groin. Peterson calls time and gives Gordon as much time as he needs to recover. After 80 seconds, Gordon is good to go, and Miller apologizes for the accidental foul. Gordon strikes first with a high kick that harmlessly bangs into the guard, and Miller crowds him behind a pair of hooks. Miller kicks the side again and is driven back with a right hand.
Gordon jabs the body with the ball of his foot, and he catches a Miller body kick to shoot for a takedown.
This reckless shot is just traveling down the road to perdition for Gordon, as Miller snatches up a guillotine choke and cinches both legs around the waist, gripping the submission with everything he has. Miller rolls Gordon to the side, squeezing with his self-describes "old man strength." Miller arches his back and has Gordon dead to rights. Gordon surrenders so he does not go out on his shield, and the victorious Miller leaps atop the cage to let loose a roar of victory.
In less than four minutes, the OG Miller has notched his 28th victory in the Octagon, extending his own record. He has now finished 20 opponents as a UFC fighter, one shy of organizational leader Charles Oliveira. In victory, Miller gives it up to his son for beating cancer, declaring that anything he does in combat pales in comparison to what his offspring went through.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jared Gordon R1 3:29 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon, stating his hands are better and his takedown defense should be good enough. He dismisses Gordon's last loss due to being hit by a car. He notes Gordon is a touch younger and faster. However, he thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy and will not bet on it. He acknowledges Jim Miller's home advantage and toughness.

Angelo says he is not spending on the 3-to-1 odds.
"I'm gonna pick Jared Gordon here because I do think his hands are better and I think the takedown defense should be good enough to defend some of these Jim Miller takedowns. But 3 to 1 money is crazy. I'm …"
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Angelo picks Jared Gordon but is not fully confident. He notes that Jim Miller is tough and experienced, and that the age difference might only be half a second faster. He thinks the fight is competitive and that Jim Miller plus 3.5 is not the worst bet. He mentions that Jim Miller has been finished in all his losses in New Jersey.

over round line lean
"I am picking Jared Gordon here. But the idea that Jim Miller can't hang on the feet seems something that you can dismiss."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Big Brady picks Jared Gordon, assuming he wasn't hit by a car before this fight. He notes Gordon fights at a high level and should be the minute winner everywhere. Brady expects Gordon to win by decision, though he acknowledges Jim Miller has power and a guillotine. He is rooting for Miller but thinks Gordon gets it done on the scorecards.

"I'm going to take Jared Gordon to win this fight by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Cody picks Gordon, citing his youth and well-rounded skills. He thinks Gordon's striking and grappling are a step ahead of Miller, who is older and less active. Cody expects Gordon to win by decision.

"I'm picking Jared Gordon. Despite the fact that I want Jim Miller to win."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Connor also picks Gordon, focusing on directionality: Gordon has a clear process of pressuring and putting out volume, while Miller never has. Connor notes that Miller has no ability to be the one pressuring and will just accept the fight Gordon wants. He adds that Gordon is a little too fast and put together with his hands for Miller to take him out of his game.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300.
"I think I will because he is going to understand how to kind of tell the story of the fight to dictate in a way that Jim Miller never has been able to."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Daniel picks Gordon, predicting a 29-28 decision where Miller wins the first round but Gordon edges out the last two with top control. He respects Miller's legacy but sees Gordon's youth and grappling as decisive.

"I'm also going Gordon. I'm gonna go 2928 decision. I think Miller wins the first round. Gordon kind of edges out the last two with top control."
FI
FightingPost AI Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Predicted method: KO/TKO Round 3. Gordon is the younger, more active fighter with superior striking volume (5.64 SLpM) and accuracy (53%) compared to the 41-year-old Miller. Miller's takedown defense (48%) is a liability, and Gordon has solid takedown defense (60%) to keep the fight standing. Gordon's recent KO win over Thiago Moises shows his power, while Miller has been knocked out multiple times. Gordon's pace and pressure should overwhelm Miller, leading to a late stoppage or clear decision.

Gordon by KO/TKO +400
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Jacob picks Jared Gordon but is not betting on him out of respect for Jim Miller, who has been dealing with his son's cancer. He thinks Gordon should win but sees weird paths to victory for Miller. He might play Jim Miller in some capacity on Saturday.

"I got to pick Jared Gordon as a pick because I mean he should just be the better fighter."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

The host picks Gordon, citing his pressure, pace, and power striking. He believes Gordon's grappling is good enough to keep Miller from grinding, and that Gordon's durability and cardio will allow him to dictate the fight. He expects a decision win, though he notes Miller's hometown crowd and power could pose a threat.

"I like Gordon here. I think he wins by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Paul picks Gordon, citing his technical striking and Miller's decline. He notes Miller's age and distractions, and thinks Gordon is simply better everywhere. Paul expects Gordon to win.

"Jared Gordon is just a kind of like one step advance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gordon but calls him a 'risky pick'. He notes Gordon's inconsistency but believes Jim Miller has lost his pop and recent performances have declined. He thinks Gordon should figure out the 55-year-old Miller and get a finish, though he initially says decision then corrects to finish.

by finish
"I'm going to go with Jared Gordon winning this one by decision. Um, by finish. Sorry."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jared Gordon

Zane picks Gordon, citing his improved boxing and ability to dictate the fight with pressure and volume. He notes that Jim Miller lacks a clear process and is not a strategic thinker, while Gordon has a clear game plan. However, Zane acknowledges Miller's power and finishing ability, making Gordon vulnerable despite being the favorite.

Miller opened at +210, now +250; Gordon opened at -250, now -300. Should probably be closer than that.
"I am going to take Jared Gordon."
LOSS vs Chase Hooper
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 314: Volkanovski vs. Lopes · Apr 12, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 13 of 35 37% 22 of 45 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 21 of 44 47% 59 of 94 8 of 14 57% 1 0 10:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 16 62% 14 of 21 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:39
Chase Hooper 0 10 of 21 47% 24 of 41 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:57
2 Jim Miller 0 1 of 12 8% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 5 of 11 45% 10 of 19 5 of 8 62% 0 0 4:04
3 Jim Miller 0 2 of 7 28% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Chase Hooper 0 6 of 12 50% 25 of 34 2 of 3 66% 1 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 13 of 35 37% 11 of 30 1 of 2 1 of 3 7 of 28 1 of 2 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 21 of 44 47% 13 of 34 7 of 9 1 of 1 18 of 41 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 16 62% 10 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 1 4 of 10 1 of 1 5 of 5
Chase Hooper 10 of 21 47% 4 of 13 5 of 7 1 of 1 9 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 1 of 12 8% 0 of 9 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 5 of 11 45% 4 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 10 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Jim Miller 2 of 7 28% 1 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 6 0 of 1 0 of 0
Chase Hooper 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 11 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Chase Hooper vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hooper (-800), Miller (+550)

Round 1
While it is understandable, it is still unfortunate that announcer Bruce Buffer declined to shout out Miller’s (38-18, 1 NC; 27-17, 1 NC UFC) preferred nickname that was certainly not “A-10.” We get what we get, so “Expletive Deleted” will have to hold serve for now. The grizzled veteran, one whose name is all over the leaderboards including the most fights (soon to be 46) and the most victories (27 for now), will throw down with a man 16 years his junior. In a contest of old man strength vs. youthful exuberance, Hooper (15-3-1, 7-3 UFC) will represent the latter and will close as an astronomical betting favorite north of -800. Things like 41 and -800 are just numbers to Miller, who will meet Hooper in the center of the cage while referee Kerry Hatley watches on. They do not touch gloves. When Miller plods forward, Hooper backs away and uses his kicks to keep his preferred distance. Hooper suddenly attacks with a swarm of punches, and Miller sits in the pocket and fires back at him. Hooper gets the better of an exchange, and he slides back and clips Miller with a solid right hand. Miller is unfazed and cracks his foe with a left hook, and Hooper punches and shoots low for a single. Miller drops to a knee to defend it, and he wraps up a guillotine choke that forces Hooper to stand. Hooper drops to the floor to roll out of it, and Miller lowers himself down and blasts the youngster in the face with a standing-to-ground left hand. Hooper hunts for a triangle choke, and Miller punches his way out of it and reassumes top position in the guard. “A-10” stacks Hooper up to prevent Hooper from going after anything, and Miller latches on with a guillotine and jumps guard to secure it. Hooper calmly works his neck out of harm’s way, and he finds himself in top. Miller turns over and gives up his back, and Hooper is quick to start hunting for a standing rear-naked choke. Miller leans against the cage to take some of the weight off, and he tries to scrape “The Dream” off of him using the chain links. Hooper has the body triangle wrapped around the waist to remain on Miller’s back, and he hacks at Miller with an elbow. Hooper attempts a neck crank, and Miller bucks and twists to get Hooper off of his back. Hooper hits his back and instantly attacks an armbar, and Miller punches his way out of that and a subsequent triangle setup. Miller nails his man with a big left hand, and he pushes out of a quick triangle that materializes out of nowhere. Miller stands up, and Hooper follows him and pushes out a front kick. One more front kick from Hooper results in him getting caught with an overhand right, and the horn sounds to end the dramatic round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 2
Miller starts out the round ready to get in the pocket and exchange, and he scores a solid left hand to back Hooper off. When Hooper presses him, Miller tags him with another left. The youngster chains a front kick into a spinning back fist, and Miller defends against them and allows Hooper to take him down so he can grip hold of a two-on-one wrist lock. Hooper elbows him in the side while Miller clings to the limb, using it to work back to his feet. Hooper takes his back standing and wrenches him to the ground, where he flirts with a rear-naked choke to further control his foe. Miller works his way back to his feet and leans himself on the wire, and Hooper softens him up and is pulled off of Miller’s back, but he sells out for a takedown and lands in side control. After Hooper gets off some strikes, Miller fights to his feet, and he considers a guillotine when Hooper pursues a mat return. Miller lets it go and stands up, and Hooper kicks off the fencing and tosses Miller to his back. Hooper controls Miller from the side and then back, and the two scramble and roll to find themselves in an awkward situation. Hoop looks to lace Miller’s legs and spread them apart for a banana split, and he tugs on Miller’s foot to further hold on tight. Miller survives this and makes it to the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper

Round 3
Hooper wants to take the fight down to begin the final round, with Miller wearing it after 10 minutes of combat. The control of Hooper starts to take over, as he latches on the elder statesman’s back and wrangles him to the floor. Hooper again pursues a leglock from a strange angle, and Miller’s knee is trapped in a precarious predicament. They remain stuck in a 50-50 of sorts, with a possible twister or other unorthodox submission coming together. Miller on his back, has his legs caught between Hooper’s, and his torso is about to turn the wrong direction until Hooper decides to abandon it and take top position. Hooper clings to the top position like Saran wrap, nullifying Miller and causing the audience to start booing. Hooper resides in half guard, smothering and hanging tight until posturing up with a few elbows to the side. Hooper sits up with seconds to go, and the fight that started with a roar ends with a whimper.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (29-28 Hooper)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Hooper (30-27 Hooper)

The Official Result
Chase Hooper def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Connor picks Jim Miller, citing his well-rounded game and lack of fear of grapplers. He believes Miller's experience and ability to find one good shot will be key, and that Hooper's messy striking will leave him vulnerable. Connor notes that Miller has knocked out bad strikers before and that Hooper's game may fall apart if his early submission attempts fail.

Same odds commentary as Zane.
"I'm gonna take the OG in a matchup like this."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Daniel Levi notes that Chase Hooper handled a legend, securing eight takedowns and doing what he was supposed to do. He suggests moving Hooper up and even proposes a fight against Michael Chandler. He respects Jim Miller as a legend but acknowledges the loss.

"Chase Hooper went out there, handled a legend, you know, eight takedowns. Uh he didn't he didn't get to sub him, but you know, he went out there, did what he was supposed to do."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Chase Hooper

Zane picks Chase Hooper, believing his scrambling and kinetic grappling will overwhelm the 41-year-old Jim Miller. He thinks Hooper's youth and submission hunting will lead to a finish, possibly early. Zane acknowledges Miller's power and experience but feels Hooper's style is too dynamic for Miller to keep up with.

Hooper opened at -674, now -832; Miller opened at +415, now +556. Zane calls the odds 'extreme' and says they should not be that wide.
"I think I'm going to pick Chase Hooper. ... Hooper's like a young Joe Lozon away."
WIN vs Damon Jackson
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 2:44 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 10 of 24 41% 11 of 25 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Damon Jackson 0 16 of 31 51% 16 of 31 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:27
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 10 of 24 41% 5 of 19 2 of 2 3 of 3 9 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Damon Jackson 16 of 31 51% 8 of 17 6 of 12 2 of 2 16 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Damon Jackson vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-170), Miller (+142)

Round 1
Two vets on the wrong end of 35 will be matched against one another as the prelims carry on. Miller (37-18, 1 NC; 26-17, 1 NC UFC) will be seeking to improve on his UFC-leading win tally, while Jackson (23-7-1, 1 NC; 6-5-1, 1 NC UFC) has regressed to the mean and is a loss away from a .500 record after two stints in the promotion. For as long as it lasts, this one should be a good one, and referee Keith Peterson is on top of the lightweight action as well as the nonsense. There is no glove touch that comes from the elder statesmen, as they want to go after it immediately. Jackson attacks first, connecting with a few power punches to introduce himself. Miller fires back with an overhand right, takes a right to the body and comes back with another clubbing punch. The two clash legs at the same time when kicking, and Miller dings Jackson with an uppercut when defending a single-leg takedown. Jackson pushes Miller to the wire, and chants for “Miller” drown out all other noise in the building. This energizes “A-10,” who breaks out of the clinch and stuffs another takedown to boot. Jackson punches his way into an exchange, and Miller cuts him when firing back. Miller further opens the cut on the eyebrow with a step-in elbow, and he swings a big right hand that is ducked and countered. Jackson tosses out a front kick, and Miller throws back with fire. Another front kick from Jackson gets in, and Miller pressures forward and whips a low kick that lands with a whump. Miller sits down with a left hand that makes both men take a step back, and he is prepared to defend against what comes next. Jackson dives after him, with an ill-advised naked takedown that is stopped in its tracks by a Miller guillotine choke.
Miller jumps guard to complete the submission, and as soon as Jackson hits the mat, he realizes the choke is so deep and so tight that he almost abandons ship immediately. Miller keeps squeezing for all his might, and Jackson decides against going out on his shield and surrenders.
It is the first time that Jackson has ever tapped in his long career, with his previous submission defeat of the technical variety that put him out. The ageless wonder does it again, submitting a man with incredible jiu-jitsu without taking much damage. The crowd goes wild, as the UFC’s all-time winningest fighters adds one more to the total. Miller tells commentator Joe Rogan that there is still tread left on the tires, and says he plans on making it to fight 50 in the UFC. On the other side of the equation—as there is the thrill of victory and the agony of defeat in almost every fight—Jackson removes his gloves and leaves them in the center of the Octagon, not wishing to speak to the crowd to give Miller his time to shine. Shine he did.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Damon Jackson R1 2:44 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson, citing Jackson's striking improvements and wrestling. He believes Jackson will hang in striking, get takedowns, and control on top without being in danger. He notes Jim Miller's age and that his black belt is outdated. He placed a half-unit bet on Jackson at -150.

Angelo bet half a unit on Damon Jackson at -150.
"I threw a half a unit on Damon Jackson at minus5"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Big Brady picks Jim Miller by knockout, citing Miller's power and durability versus Jackson's chinny nature. He notes that Jackson gets hurt in every fight and looks like a wounded deer on the feet, while Miller still has power that lasts. He also mentions the return to old gloves, which he believes favors knockouts. He predicts a second-round knockout, though he acknowledges Jackson's path via takedowns.

"I'll take Jim Miller to win this fight by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

Cody picks Damon Jackson, citing Miller's age (41) and recent decline. He notes Miller's only path is an early finish, while Jackson has better durability and cardio. Cody expects Jackson to win a competitive decision, possibly by outworking Miller in the later rounds.

"I'm actually gonna take Damon Jackson for this one"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller but with hesitation, noting that Jackson's game is 'chancey' and that Miller can still obliterate lower-level opponents. He points out that Jackson's wins are always scrappy and that Miller is a more reliable fighter. However, he acknowledges that Miller's stamina and directional issues could be exploited.

"I do not... I don't know. Damon jackson's game is it's just much more chancey than miller's. Yes. It's always been a thing like, you know, Jackson wins all the time. And so it's easy to we but i've talked …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

Daniel Vreeland picks Damon Jackson via decision, expecting Miller to win the first round but fade. He notes Miller's history of fading after round one and Jackson's ability to grind out wins. He acknowledges Miller's early threat but believes Jackson can survive and take over in later rounds. He mentions Miller's recent loss to Bobby Green as evidence of his decline.

decision
"I'm gonna go Damon Jackson via decision here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Vreeland picks Miller as his dog, liking the plus money. He notes Miller is a durable veteran and that Jackson has lost three in a row. Vreeland expects Miller to win by decision, as Jackson is tough to finish.

Jim Miller wins by decision (+400)
"Jim Miller I like... better number too slightly plus 145"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert pick date unknown

Fox does not make a clear pick for this fight. He mentions Vreeland's pick but does not state his own opinion.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

The host gives Miller a slight striking advantage but believes the fight will be dictated in the grappling realm, where Jackson should utilize his size and strength more effectively to get controlling positions and grind out a decision win.

"I'd give Miller the slight advantage in the Striking I do think it will be dictated in the grappling real and that's where Jackson should be able to utilize this SI and strength a little bit more effectively getting those …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Damon Jackson, noting Miller is on his last legs and Jackson has good enough grappling to avoid being submitted. He expects Jackson to win a decision, possibly by outworking Miller. Paul is not betting the fight but leans Jackson.

"I won't be fading Jim Miller but I will be picking his opponent Damon Jackson"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson, expecting him to grapple and grind out a decision. He believes Jackson will take Miller down and hold him there, wearing him out. He notes Jackson's size and grappling ability, and doubts Miller can finish early.

decision win
"Damon Jackson's GNA half guard Camp Jim Miller it's going to happen... I can so see him getting taken down and held down by Damon Jackson"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller despite acknowledging his age and stamina issues. He notes that Miller is still dangerous on the feet and harder to hurt than Jackson, who is hittable and structurally unsound. Zane thinks Miller's power and durability give him an edge, but he is hesitant because Miller tends to fade late and can be out-wrestled.

Odds: Miller opened -145, now +154; Jackson opened +114, now -174. Zane says 'you don't want damon jackson any wider than that over anyone'.
"I'm kind of tempted to pick jim miller here. It is his home division. I think he might feel kind of stronger than damon jackson's uh issues, too."
LOSS vs King Green
Decision (unanimous) (29–27, 30–25, 29–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 300: Pereira vs. Hill · Apr 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
King Green 1 186 of 319 58% 187 of 320 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 57 of 144 39% 58 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 King Green 0 43 of 83 51% 43 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 King Green 0 61 of 115 53% 61 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 20 of 53 37% 20 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 King Green 1 82 of 121 67% 83 of 122 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
Jim Miller 0 20 of 45 44% 21 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
King Green 186 of 319 58% 136 of 245 40 of 56 10 of 18 167 of 295 7 of 8 12 of 16
Jim Miller 57 of 144 39% 29 of 103 10 of 18 18 of 23 55 of 141 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 King Green 43 of 83 51% 26 of 57 12 of 19 5 of 7 43 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 17 of 46 36% 9 of 35 2 of 4 6 of 7 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 King Green 61 of 115 53% 45 of 88 13 of 19 3 of 8 60 of 114 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jim Miller 20 of 53 37% 9 of 37 3 of 6 8 of 10 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 King Green 82 of 121 67% 65 of 100 15 of 18 2 of 3 64 of 99 6 of 6 12 of 16
Jim Miller 20 of 45 44% 11 of 31 5 of 8 4 of 6 18 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
King Green

Angelo leans Bobby Green based on skill set, noting Green's better striking and takedown defense. However, he is not confident due to Green's recent knockout losses and Miller's resurgence. He calls the -200 odds absurd and advises staying away from betting.

Odds comment: -200 is absurd for this fight
"I am going to lean Bobby green very very slightly minus 200 is absolutely absurd for this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
King Green

Cody picks Bobby Green, citing his superior footwork, volume, and jab. He notes that Jim Miller is slower and more flat-footed now, and no longer relies on wrestling. Green's takedown defense is solid, and Miller is unlikely to wrestle. Cody thinks the fight will resemble a sparring match where Green picks Miller apart with the jab. He warns that Miller is a fan favorite and the crowd could influence judges, but on paper, Green's style defeats Miller. Cody expects a decision win for Green.

"On paper Bobby green has a style to defeat him so the pick is Green."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
King Green

Connor picks Green, arguing that Miller's game is not suited to track down a mobile striker like Green. He notes that Miller is best when he can plant his feet in the middle distance, but Green will keep moving and counter. Connor believes Green's ability to fire back with better offense will be the difference, though Miller's kicks could be troublesome.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Connor mentions the line movement.
"I got to take green to just be able to have a competitive interesting fight, maybe eat a couple of shots that he lunges in and Miller is sitting and waiting on a counter."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
King Green

Daniel Vreeland picks Bobby Green, citing his speed, volume, and higher level of competition. He believes Green's striking and cardio will outpace Miller, despite concerns about Green's recent knockout loss. Vreeland notes Miller's momentum but trusts Green's technical edge.

"I'm gonna pick Bobby Green to get it done"
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

Lucrative James does not make a pick for this fight. He calls it a feel-good fight and is excited because Jim Miller is fighting on UFC 100, 200, and 300. He says Bobby Green always brings hype and entertainment. No prediction is given.

"Jim Miller versus Bobby Green that's just a feel-good fight Jim Miller for UFC 100 UFC 200 and UFC 300 well is going to fight UFC 300 so I'm excited for that fight as well"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
King Green

Green is the better technical striker and his defensive grappling is good enough to keep the fight upright. Miller might land some big shots early but Green will roll with them and put it on Miller in rounds two and three, winning on the scorecards.

decision
"I think for the most part green will roll with them well enough to take the brunt of it off and then really start to put it on Jim Miller through rounds two and three winning this fight on the …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
King Green

Paul agrees, noting that Green's footwork and jab should keep Miller at bay. He mentions that Green is coming off a bad knockout loss to Jalin Turner, but Miller doesn't have the power to replicate that. Paul thinks Miller's best chance is to land a right hand and get a takedown, but Green's takedown defense is good. He expects Green to win a decision, possibly a clear one.

"I like Bobby green too."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller to defeat Bobby Green by TKO in the second round. He predicts Miller will chop at Green's lead leg, find the chin after making Green hesitant, and notes Green's recent knockout loss to Jalin Turner may have affected him. He emphasizes Miller's momentum and ability to shoot takedowns.

"Jim Miller is going to destroy the lead leg of Bobby green he's going to hack it to Pieces."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
King Green

Zane picks Green, believing his defensive awareness and skill will allow him to adjust as the fight goes on. He notes that Miller's meat-and-potatoes style is effective early but predictable, and Green's footwork and counters will take over. Zane acknowledges that Green has looked shaky recently but trusts his technical edge over Miller's plodding pressure.

Odds: Miller opened +160, now +155; Green opened -208, now -175. Zane mentions the line movement.
"I am going to pick Bobby Green because I think Jim Miller is so meat and potato potatoes that he is going to have all the success he's ever going to have in the fight in like the first six …"
Submission (face crank) R3 3:25 · UFC Fight Night: Ankalaev vs. Walker 2 · Jan 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 80 of 140 57% 96 of 157 2 of 2 100% 1 0 3:55
Gabriel Benítez 0 80 of 182 43% 84 of 188 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 32 of 64 50% 33 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Gabriel Benítez 0 32 of 77 41% 32 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
2 Jim Miller 0 28 of 38 73% 42 of 53 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:52
Gabriel Benítez 0 22 of 48 45% 26 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jim Miller 0 20 of 38 52% 21 of 39 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:46
Gabriel Benítez 0 26 of 57 45% 26 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 80 of 140 57% 50 of 108 10 of 12 20 of 20 67 of 125 5 of 7 8 of 8
Gabriel Benítez 80 of 182 43% 51 of 145 13 of 21 16 of 16 79 of 181 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 32 of 64 50% 17 of 47 5 of 7 10 of 10 30 of 60 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gabriel Benítez 32 of 77 41% 18 of 56 7 of 14 7 of 7 31 of 76 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 28 of 38 73% 19 of 29 4 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 28 3 of 3 7 of 7
Gabriel Benítez 22 of 48 45% 17 of 42 2 of 3 3 of 3 22 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jim Miller 20 of 38 52% 14 of 32 1 of 1 5 of 5 19 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 1
Gabriel Benítez 26 of 57 45% 16 of 47 4 of 4 6 of 6 26 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jim Miller vs. Gabriel Benitez
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Miller (-120), Benitez (+100)

Round 1
It’s Miller (36-17, 1 NC; 25-16, 1 NC UFC) time. The storied veteran takes on Benitez (23-10, 7-6 UFC) and already has his next date on the calendar circled: April 13. Before then, he has to get past the fiery “Moggly,” who should not just serve as a heavy bag. The co-main event will be covered by referee Dan Miragliotta. The lightweights have all the respect in the world for one another, they touch ‘em up before engaging, and there’s a bad moon on the rise. Miller parries a jab and takes a one-two on the chin, and he walks Benitez down. Benitez tries to back him off with a front kick, and he scores a low kick. Miller gives him one back immediately, and he scores three punches up top and a left to the body. Miller scores a low kick, and he aims a right to the body. Miller walks his foe down and unloads with punches, and Benitez is marked up already and defends with a knee. They trade leg kicks, with Miller throwing harder. Miller chops down the lead leg of his opponent, and Benitez drives a one-two down the pipe. Benitez gets off another one-two, and Miller pushes a front kick out of the way to make Benitez slip. Benitez jumps back up, and he swings heavy punches including a left hand that marks up Miller’s right eye. They connect with right hands at the same time, and Miller blitzes forward to back Benitez off. Miller blasts the body with two loud knees, and Benitez escapes on the outside and gets back to striking range. Miller follows him and swings, and he gets clipped with a left hand. Benitez scores a low kick, Miller fires it back and walks through a jab. Miller plods ahead with punches and an inside leg kick, and he gets one off on the other side. Benitez sticks out a few jabs, and Miller crowds him but does not land flush in an exchange. Miller keeps coming forward, getting off a left hand and a knee up the middle. Benitez ties him up, and Miller aims a body shot before the two split up. Benitez goes to the body, and Miller goes up top. Benitez flicks out a few jabs and gets backed off with a hefty low kick, and he reaches Miller with a long left. Miller loads up on a high kick, and Benitez springs into action with several punches and a body kick. Benitez tags his foe with a left hand, and Miller blinks it out and keeps his guard up to defend another one-two that soars at him at high speed. Miller leaps ahead with a right hook, and he gets met on the way in with a left hand and a low kick. Benitez gets off several jabs and a left hook follows the fourth, and Miller is on him with his own combination to end the spirited round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights touch ‘em up to get started, and fists meet faces shortly thereafter. Benitez wades through a few punches and then backs off, but Miller is right on him and nails him with two leg kicks. Benitez connects with a clean left hand to shake Miller up, and he eats a few punches as Miller is right on him. Miller blasts him with a left hand, lands another, drives up a knee and pounds Benitez with another short left. Miller slashes out an elbow, and Benitez is no worse for wear as he backs away. Miller keeps the high pace and whips down low kicks that have welted up the Mexican’s legs. Benitez looks to get his jab going frequently, and the low kicks from Miller make Benitez lift his leg up preemptively to block them. They land powerful punches, and Miller strides forward confidently to nail Benitez with an elbow. Miller changes things up and hits an easy takedown, and Benitez turns to one side in an effort to set up an armbar. Miller sees it coming and shuts it down, and he stacks Benitez up and works the body. Miller continues to strike, and Benitez moves his legs up to set up a high guard to for a potential submission setup. Miller breaks out of it by connecting with two nasty elbows, and Benitez rolls frantically to grab hold of Miller’s arm and lock down an armbar. Miller moves the proper way through it and gets out of danger, and he again holds himself on top of Benitez and hammers him with standing-to-ground punches. As Benitez turns after absorbing a particularly heavy blow, Miller takes his back and secures a body triangle. Benitez hand-fights to prevent any rear-naked choke, and Miller uses one left to break the wrist lock so that he can isolate Benitez’ neck. Benitez survives to the end of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 3
The fighters clap hands together as the last round opens, and they are just as willing to slug it out as ever. They stand in the center of the Octagon and trade leather briefly, and Miller targets the busted lead leg of his foe with a kick. Benitez stands firm and throws punches, and he comes up short with a high kick. Miller punches high and kicks low in response, as his corner cheers the kick as if he were in a muay thai contest. Miller sneaks two left hands around the guard, and Benitez is tough as nails but his nose starts leaking. Miller lands a heavy leg kick, and when Benitez backs him off with a few punches, Miller comes back firing with a kick he turns his hip towards. Benitez walks forward to throw hard, and Miller’s eyes begin to close from swelling. Benitez continues to pepper him with punches and kicks, and Miller staggers him with a straight right hand. Miller wades forward without a care in the world, and Benitez’s volume is starting to frustrate his opponent. Miller connects with another vicious low kick, and he shoots for a double that lands him in half guard easily. Benitez looks to scramble, and he gives his back up.
Miller gets the body lock he was looking for, and he immediately starts pursuing the choke. Benitez turns to his side, but Miller has him locked down and fishing for rear-naked choke grip. Miller cranks down with his forearm on Benitez’ jaw, and he does not even bother to slide it under the chin before he starts squeezing. Knowing that he has no way out, Benitez surrenders to the face crank, and Miller has done it.
He adds to his record with the most victories in UFC history, and hardcore fans around the world are elated at the grizzled veteran getting it done by stoppage once more. Pleasing the crowd and commentator Michael Bisping, Miller proudly declares that he has his sights set on UFC 300 in April, with three names in mind: Paul Felder, Matt Brown and Brock Lesnar.

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Gabriel Benitez R3 3:25 via Submission (Face Crank)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller but with low confidence due to his age (40). He notes Miller's late-career power and toughness, but acknowledges Gabriel Benítez is a dangerous striker with power. He thinks Miller's wrestling and grit could get the win, but won't bet on a 40-year-old.

"Jim Miller is going to be the pick I do think he wins this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Big Brady likes Jim Miller's recent form, noting he's been active and knocking people out. He questions Benítez's durability and inactivity, as Benítez has been knocked out multiple times and hasn't fought in over a year. Brady predicts Miller will knock out Benítez in the first round, possibly via a club-and-sub.

first round knockout
"I'm going to say Jim Miller knocks this guy out in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gabriel Benítez

Cody picks Benítez, citing his solid takedown defense from training with elite wrestlers, his volume striking, and leg kicks that can immobilize Miller. He notes Miller's lack of volume and takedown attempts in recent fights, and believes Benítez can sprawl and keep the fight standing to win by volume.

"I'll take Gabriel bonitz"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel Vreeland leans with Gabriel Benítez, citing his youth and durability. He expects a competitive first round, but if it goes past that, Benítez's kicks and knees will wear down Jim Miller. Vreeland acknowledges Miller's finishing ability but thinks Benítez's chin issues are mitigated by the fact that only heavy hitters have knocked him out.

"I'm gonna lean with the younger Mowgli Bonitz here."
LU
Lucrative James Expert pick date unknown

James does not discuss this fight in the transcript. He only covers fights from the card he mentions, and Jim Miller vs Gabriel Benítez is not mentioned.

MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gabriel Benítez

Gabriel Benítez is a technical striker with a strong kicking game, especially to the body, and trains at AKA. He has a significant layoff but looked impressive in his last win over Charlie Ontiveros. Jim Miller is 40 years old and tends to fade in later rounds if he doesn't get an early finish. Benítez's technical striking advantage should allow him to outwork Miller from distance and potentially hurt him to the body. I expect Benítez to win by decision, but I'm cautious about the layoff and Miller's power. I'd wait for better odds on Benítez, ideally plus 140 or higher.

"I'm going to lean bonitz ever so slightly by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gabriel Benítez

Paul leans towards Benítez as the number climbs, noting that Jim Miller's recent wins are against low-level competition and that Benítez has a speed advantage and kicks very hard. He mentions that if the line moves to +150, he would take a shot on Benítez, but he's not heavily invested.

over 1.5 rounds -140
"I'm going to ever so SL lean towards Gabriel Mowgli Benitez as this number climbs"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, admitting bias but citing Miller's consistency and activity. He notes Gabriel Benítez has been inactive for nearly two years and lost to David Onama. He believes Miller still has fast-twitch muscle and finishing ability, predicting a TKO finish in the first round.

TKO in the first round
"I'm going to go with Jim Miller getting this one done by TKO finish in the first round"
WIN vs Jesse Butler
KO (punch) R1 0:23 · UFC on ESPN: Kara-France vs. Albazi · Jun 03, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 1 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jesse Butler 0 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 3 of 5 60% 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1
Jesse Butler 1 of 7 14% 1 of 5 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jesse Butler vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: N/A

Round 1
The widest gap in UFC experience will take place in this ultra-late notice lightweight fight. With the most fights (and wins) in company history, Miller (35-17, 1 NC; 24-16, 1 NC UFC) gladly accepted anyone they threw at him, after losing opponents Ludovit Klein and Jared Gordon. Taking the call this week, Butler (12-4, 0-0 UFC) will be making his UFC debut on the heels of five straight wins, including three in the growing Fury FC organization. In comparison, Miller had already competed 20 times in the UFC by the time Butler made his professional debut. This pairing that may not end in the hands of the judges will be officiated by referee Dan Miragliotta, and the fighters are glad to be competing and display this with a glove touch. Butler leads off with a left hand, and he loads up on a right hand and a body kick. Miller avoids all three, but he walks into a big pair of punches as the newcomer is ready for him. “A-10” flies into action with a right hand and a left, and the second stings his foe.
Miller corks back a bomb of a left hand and detonates it on the chin of the debutant, and Butler collapses like a bird that’s just had its wings clipped. Just to punctuate his performance, Miller clobbers the unconscious fighter with a devastating uppercut before Miragliotta can get between them.
Butler is all the way out, and takes some time to regain his senses from the vicious destruction. Miller declares in his post-fight interview that he has few things left he wants to accomplish in the sport, other than landing a kimura on an opponent, fighting at UFC 300 and facing someone he is “a fan” of in the cage. If Miller keeps fighting like that, it will be up to him when he wants to hang it up, as he very likely earned the fastest finish of his illustrious career while extending his record for the most wins in organizational history (25).

The Official Result
Jim Miller def. Jesse Butler R1 0:23 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown

Angelo picks Gordon, noting he looked sharp against Bobby Green before the headbutt. He thinks Gordon's wrestling and volume striking will be too much for an aging Miller. He is concerned about Gordon being knocked out recently but believes Miller has slowed down. He is not betting this fight.

"I think Jared Gordon is is much better striker in this fight and uh I'm pretty confident in him"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown

Cody picks Jared Gordon very reluctantly. He acknowledges Miller's power and submission threat early, but thinks Gordon will work him over slowly if it goes 15 minutes. Cody notes Gordon's wrestling and striking volume should be enough to outpoint Miller. He admits Miller could knock Gordon out, but he's sticking with Gordon as the right pick despite the risk.

"I'm looking to get the right pick and I think the right pick is Jared Gordon so very reluctantly again I I will stick with them"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller, hedging against Gordon's recent knockout loss. He admits that in a vacuum he would pick Gordon, but is too worried about Gordon's durability after being knocked out cold by Bobby Green a month ago. Connor notes that Miller still has sharp counter-punching and can finish anyone, and that Gordon's new patient style might play into Miller's hands.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss and short notice replacement.
"I'm going to take Jim Miller. I'm going to hedge against Gordon here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown

Daniel picks Jared Gordon, expecting him to outwork Jim Miller in the later rounds. He notes that Miller is a potent finisher early, but Gordon's volume and cardio should take over as the fight goes on. He acknowledges the recent KO loss for Gordon but doesn't put much stock in it, and sees a 29-28 decision either way.

"I'm on Gordon so we finally have our first opposite side"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown

Jacob picks Gordon, citing his performance against Bobby Green where he landed clean combinations. He thinks Gordon can point-fight and avoid Miller's power. Jacob notes Miller has power but is flat-footed and hittable. He is confident Gordon wins by outworking Miller.

"I believe Jared Gordon can kind of avoid those power shots like he did against Paddy kind of in out Point fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown

Gordon puts high volume and pressure, mixing striking, clinching, and grappling. Miller fades in later rounds and relies on early success. Gordon will tie him up, maintain pace, and win a decision. The five-week layoff from the no-contest is not a major concern.

"I like Gordon to just go out there and do work do what he did to Leonardo Santos in terms of just putting forward pressure on and just putting output and volume that Jim Miller may not be able to …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller as the value side at +155. He notes Miller has one-punch power and a chin that could catch Gordon, who has been knocked out before. Paul mentions Gordon's recent no-contest due to a headbutt and his history of getting knocked out. He thinks Miller could finish early, but if it goes the distance, Gordon might outwork him. Paul is reluctant but sees value in the underdog.

Jim Miller by knockout prop
"I think plus 155 is the value side 100 what do you think so I'm going to agree with you I think it's the value side I think Jay Miller could absolutely win this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jesse Butler

The MMA Guru picks Jesse Butler (referred to as Jared Gordon, but the fight is Jim Miller vs Jesse Butler; likely a mistake in the transcript, but the pick is for Butler). He notes that Butler was looking good before being KO'd by Bobby Green (which was a headbutt). He believes Butler is simply a better fighter than Jim Miller, who he thinks has lost a step, as seen in his loss to Alexander Hernandez. He predicts Butler by decision, 30-27 or 29-28.

Butler by decision
"I'm going with Jared Gordon although Jared Gordon just got ko'd and it really does worry me... I do still think he's just a better fighter simply a better fighter than Jim Miller"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown

Zane picks Gordon in a vacuum, believing Gordon's improved boxing and pressure will be too much for the aging Miller. He notes that Miller's striking falls apart when he is forced to consistently go forward or backward, and Gordon's style can exploit that. However, Zane expresses concern about Gordon's recent knockout loss to Bobby Green just a month ago, which could affect his durability.

Concern about Gordon's recent KO loss (April 22nd) and short turnaround.
"I would pick him in a vacuum based on the styles and the age of Jim Miller."
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Andrade vs. Blanchfield · Feb 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Hernandez 0 67 of 185 36% 68 of 186 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:40
Jim Miller 0 108 of 234 46% 111 of 238 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Hernandez 0 24 of 70 34% 24 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jim Miller 0 32 of 66 48% 32 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexander Hernandez 0 16 of 50 32% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:01
Jim Miller 0 34 of 74 45% 34 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexander Hernandez 0 27 of 65 41% 27 of 65 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:39
Jim Miller 0 42 of 94 44% 45 of 98 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Hernandez 67 of 185 36% 32 of 137 16 of 25 19 of 23 64 of 182 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 108 of 234 46% 62 of 169 39 of 50 7 of 15 98 of 223 3 of 3 7 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Hernandez 24 of 70 34% 12 of 53 8 of 10 4 of 7 24 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 32 of 66 48% 14 of 43 12 of 15 6 of 8 31 of 65 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Alexander Hernandez 16 of 50 32% 9 of 39 3 of 7 4 of 4 16 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jim Miller 34 of 74 45% 21 of 55 12 of 16 1 of 3 34 of 74 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexander Hernandez 27 of 65 41% 11 of 45 5 of 8 11 of 12 24 of 62 3 of 3 0 of 0
Jim Miller 42 of 94 44% 27 of 71 15 of 19 0 of 4 33 of 84 2 of 2 7 of 8
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Hernandez vs. Jim Miller
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Hernandez (-230), Miller (+195)

Round 1
The main card kicks off with what should be an action-packed 155-pound tilt for as long as it lasts. On a hot streak with three finishes in a row, Miller (35-16, 1 NC; 24-15, 1 NC UFC) is determined to rattle off several more wins and potentially call it quits at UFC 300 next year. Standing in his way is late replacement Hernandez (13-6, 5-5 UFC), who returns to his weight class after an ill-fated trip to featherweight two months ago. Referee Herb Dean watches on as the two men decide not to touch gloves. Instead, Hernandez moves to the center of the cage and looses a head kick, and Miller takes it and fires back with a left hand down the pipe. Miller kicks the lead leg, counters a jab with a left hand and absorbs a calf kick coming back his way. Miller darts forward with a one-two, and Hernandez pushes off to slide a finger in Miller’s right eye. Miller does not acknowledge it, and Dean calls it for him and lets him recover anyway. Miller is good to go after about 15 seconds, and he reintroduces himself with a gnarly leg kick that makes Hernandez pick it up and lift it far back. Miller rushes forward with a few punches, and he rips a head kick that collides with the dome of his foe. Miller rings his bell a few more times with punches, and Hernandez separates and gathers his thoughts. The veteran keeps working on the lead leg, and Hernandez responds in kind. Hernandez catches Miller coming forward with one to the low calf, and Miller stumbles and blitzes with a four-punch salvo that drives Hernandez to the wall. Hernandez keeps his wits about him, circles away and pushes out a front kick that connects with the jaw. They fire off head kicks at the same time, and Miller knocks his foe back with a right hand. Hernandez gets off two punches before Miller can catch him, and he kicks Miller on the way back. A Hernandez jab leads to Miller racing forward with a one-two, and Hernandez slides out of harm’s way and plants the ball of his foot on the chest. Miller swings wildly with hooks, and Hernandez evades them all and continues feeding Miller a steady diet of kicks. Miller snaps the head back with a left hand, and he gives chase as Hernandez backpedals. Miller plods straight forward, throwing haymakers, while Hernandez strafes away. Miller swings a high kick that is barely blocked in time, and Hernandez works the lead leg in response. As Hernandez comes in throwing a punch, Miller attempts to kick the body, but it comes up short and clacks off the cup. Hernandez needs about 20 seconds to gather his wind, and they get back to exchanging. The round ends as Miller’s nose starts to bleed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Miller

Round 2
The lightweights meet in the middle, and the first strike lands in the form of a Miller kick to the thigh. Hernandez backs off to crack Miller with a short left hook, and he scores a high kick that is barely blocked. Miller runs straight forward to attack, and Hernandez snipes him with a left hook again before stopping the takedown. Hernandez steps in with a knee to the body, and he jabs to the same spot and retreats. Miller gets stung with a right hand over the top, and Miller bounces off the fence and throws back with a vengeance. Miller takes a body kick and a right hand, and Hernandez is starting to bust Miller’s face up and cause some serious swelling. Miller scores a solid left hand but it is one-and-done before Hernandez can move away and counter. Hernandez ignores a low kick to split the guard with a straight right hand, and he rips a standing elbow right on the forehead. Miller goes up high with a kick, and it is easily blocked. Miller scores at the end of a two-punch salvo, but not before absorbing a kick to the ribs. Miller takes one on the chin and fires back, but Hernandez appears the faster fighter and the more elusive of the two. Hernandez splits the guard with a few strikes, beating Miller to the punch and slowing him down. “The Great Ape” blasts the midsection with a knee, and he jabs a few more times before having to block a head kick. Hernandez steps in to elbow and then knee Miller, and Miller can only take them without being able to land back with much. Miller stings his foe with a left hand, and he rushes after him with a few blows but is stunned from an elbow. Hernandez looks for elbows as he backs Miller up to the wall, and Miller wings a right hand that Hernandez practically ignores. Miller backs Hernandez up with a few more strikes, and he blocks a knee up the middle with kicks the liver. Hernandez digs a kick to the body and comfortably lands a jab as he backs off, and the round comes to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez

Round 3
Fists fly immediately to start off the last round, and Miller pushes the pace and knocks Hernandez back a few times. Hernandez strikes back, ripping opening a cut under Miller’s eye. Miller replies with a sweeping low kick, and he kicks the same spot when Hernandez recovers. Miller fights through a few jabs to charge with a barrage of punches, and he rocks Hernandez with a left hand over the top. Hernandez ties him up against the wall, and Miller knees the body and defends against a single-leg takedown. Hernandez goes low, and Miller grabs his neck with a guillotine choke. Hernandez stands up, backs off an elbow Miller on the dome. Miller lands a powerful low kick as he eats a right hand, and he fires a kick to the opposite leg as Hernandez’ balance is shaken up from these kicks. Miller takes a few right hands cleanly and a knee on the belly, but he keeps pushing forward throwing bombs. Miller checks a body kick and cracks Hernandez with a left hand, and Hernandez shakes it off and starts to get his jab going. Miller leads the dance with a few haymakers, and Hernandez is light on his feet with quick, straight punches. Miller blocks kicks on both sides, and he takes a one-two and whiffs on a huge left hand. Hernandez pushes forward and bullies the veteran to the wall, but Miller grits his teeth and throws bombs. Hernandez blocks a kick and sticks out a jab, and he is met with a step-in vertical elbow. Miller reaches with a right hand, and he walks face-first into an elbow. Miller lands, Hernandez responds, and Miller lashes out again. Hernandez plants the ball of his foot on Miller’s chin, but Miller does not flinch. Hernandez gets Miller’s attention in an exchange, and Miller shakes him up. Hernandez throws hands, and Miller kicks low and sweeps Hernandez to the mat. Miller works his way to take the back, and he locks down a rear-naked choke that is tight but on the chin. Miller squeezes with everything he has left, and Hernandez grits it out and survives it to turn Miller around and stand up. “The Great Ape” rains down punches right to the bitter end, and this absolute thriller is now left in the hands of the judges.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Miller (29-28 Miller)
Jack Dankoff scores the round: 10-9 Hernandez (29-28 Hernandez)

The Official Result
Alexander Hernandez def. Jim Miller via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

"Hernandez is going to be the pick but absolutely under no circumstances am I spending money on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm still going Hernandez I'm taking Hernandez to kind of grind this one out win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Cody says the line is no good and Hernandez is massively untrustworthy. He mentions Miller is always the dog and has been live in similar spots. He says he can't bet Miller but picks Hernandez.
"I just gotta go based on tape and skill and I would say Hernandez is just a better athlete he moves better he hits harder he is a better athletic fighter Jim Miller is a better fighter fighter but you …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Jim Miller as well. I'm I feel very confident. He will lose the first round of this fight... But I can't trust Hernandez not to find a way out of this fight if Miller can just hang tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

"I'm taking the experience here in Jim Miller I think he outworks this kid."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Hernandez wins by decision
"I lean Hernandez... I'm gonna ultimately with very low confidence say that he wins this by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

Paul sprinkles Jim Miller round two. He says he's more interested in live betting if Miller survives round one. He mentions Miller was favored against Mata and Eric Gonzalez.
"I'm gonna sprinkle the round two prop for Jim Miller and uh and be more interested in entering uh from a live market perspective because if he's living after round one it is it's Miller time."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in the second or third round
"I want to take Jim Miller here I'm gonna take Jim Miller they've made him an underdog against Alexander Hernandez who always has one round of fight in him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Miller opened +210, now +191; Hernandez opened -250, now -241. Zane says he's surprised Miller is such an underdog and thinks even odds would be more accurate.
"I'll take Jim. Yeah, I'm gonna roll with it, too. I just her name did like it, you know, I said with the Jordan Wright situation. It's just like you see somebody in this kind of career limbo."
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 1:32 · UFC 276: Adesanya vs. Cannonier · Jul 02, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jim Miller 0 24 of 36 66% 35 of 48 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 21 of 33 63% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jim Miller 0 21 of 29 72% 32 of 41 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Donald Cerrone 0 17 of 26 65% 20 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:08
2 Jim Miller 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Donald Cerrone 0 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jim Miller 24 of 36 66% 16 of 28 6 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 27 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 21 of 33 63% 12 of 20 6 of 8 3 of 5 21 of 33 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jim Miller 21 of 29 72% 15 of 23 5 of 5 1 of 1 14 of 20 0 of 0 7 of 9
Donald Cerrone 17 of 26 65% 10 of 16 5 of 6 2 of 4 17 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jim Miller 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 1 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Donald Cerrone 4 of 7 57% 2 of 4 1 of 2 1 of 1 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Angelo picks Jim Miller based on his recent knockout wins over prospects, while noting that Cerrone is stepping in on short notice and may not be in peak form. He acknowledges Cerrone's technical advantage but believes Miller's toughness and momentum give him the edge. He also mentions that Cerrone at +200 might be worth a small sprinkle.

Cerrone at +200 might be worth a couple dollar long shot
"I think i'm siding with jim miller here but the odds are kind of crazy donald cerrone is a two-to-one underdog and he might be worth a couple dollar sprinkle"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Big Brady is confident in Jim Miller, stating Donald Cerrone looks washed and doesn't want to be there. He notes Miller's power and first-round finishing ability, predicting a first-round knockout. He mentions Cerrone's recent struggles and weight cuts, while Miller is still active and motivated.

Miller by first round knockout
"give me uh jim miller to win jim miller to win my first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Cody thinks Miller's improved boxing and fast starts will overwhelm Cerrone, who has looked poor recently. He notes Miller's wrestling and submissions are also threats. He expects Miller to finish early.

"I think Jim Miller gets the pounce on him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Donald Cerrone

Daniel Levi leans toward Donald Cerrone as the underdog, citing the price (+165) and the fact that Cerrone has beaten Miller before via head kick. He notes that Miller tends to slow down after the first round, and if Cerrone can weather the early storm, he can take over. Levi acknowledges that Cerrone is past his prime and has lost to lesser opponents, but he sees value in the dog price. He does not bet it himself.

Dog-or-pass; price is everything; no bet.
"i'm gonna lean with cowboy because of the price man plus 165"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Donald Cerrone

Cerrone is the better fighter with more tools, and the line is too wide. Miller is a quick starter but if he doesn't finish early, Cerrone takes over. Cerrone at 170 lbs benefits him. The host predicts Cerrone by decision, noting Miller's cardio is not as bad as some claim.

Cerrone round 3/decision double chance
"i think the line is whack i think this should be closer to it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert pick date unknown

Paul is torn, calling it a 50-50 fight. He likes Cerrone's chances if he survives the first round, especially at welterweight, but won't bet Miller at -185. He might sprinkle on a Cerrone late finish prop.

Cerrone round 3 +1600
"I don't know if I'm gonna get to Cerrone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Donald Cerrone

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Donald Cerrone as an underdog, citing the fight being at welterweight where Cerrone won't have to cut as much weight, preserving his chin and cardio. He thinks Miller's power may not translate up a division and that Cerrone can survive the first round and rally in later rounds. He calls it a 50/50 fight and predicts a 29-28 decision for Cerrone.

underdog pick, fight of the night performance
"i'm gonna actually go with donald cerrone here in an underdog pick i think at 170 he shouldn't be that big of an underdog and this is a 50 50."
Expert Picks (9)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Angelo picks Hernandez but won't bet on him due to lack of trust. He acknowledges Hernandez's talent, speed, power, and wrestling, but notes his inconsistency and 'brain fart' moments. Angelo thinks Jim Miller will finally look old and slow, and Hernandez should win by being faster and stronger. However, he admits he'll be rooting for Miller and keeps his money in his pocket.

"Hernandez is going to be the pick but absolutely under no circumstances am I spending money on him."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Big Brady likes Hernandez to wrestle and grind out a decision, similar to his win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier. He notes that Miller has been controlled by wrestlers like Joe Solecki and Vince Pichel. He worries about Hernandez's cardio but thinks the path to victory is clear. He also mentions both have knockout power early, but expects a decision.

Hernandez by decision
"I'm still going Hernandez I'm taking Hernandez to kind of grind this one out win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Cody picks Hernandez based on tape and skill, calling him a better athlete who moves better and hits harder. He notes Hernandez is confidence-driven and coming in on short notice, which might help him avoid overthinking. He says Jim Miller is a better fighter but at 39 with Lyme disease, the train will fall off eventually. He acknowledges Hernandez's cardio issues and tendency to fall apart if he doesn't finish early, but thinks the short notice and no weight cut to 145 will benefit him.

Cody says the line is no good and Hernandez is massively untrustworthy. He mentions Miller is always the dog and has been live in similar spots. He says he can't bet Miller but picks Hernandez.
"I just gotta go based on tape and skill and I would say Hernandez is just a better athlete he moves better he hits harder he is a better athletic fighter Jim Miller is a better fighter fighter but you know 39 years old Lyme disease."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Connor picks Miller as well, emphasizing that Hernandez's problems are mental and technical, not size-related. Miller is tough, crafty, and a harder hitter than Hernandez's recent opponents. Connor expects Hernandez to win the first round but fade, and Miller to take over in later rounds.

"I'm picking Jim Miller as well. I'm I feel very confident. He will lose the first round of this fight... But I can't trust Hernandez not to find a way out of this fight if Miller can just hang tough."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Jacob is picking Jim Miller, calling it a matchup nightmare for Hernandez. He believes Hernandez looks great early but fades when pressured, and Miller's experience and toughness will take over. Jacob notes Miller's recent wins show power and submissions, and he thinks Hernandez's weight class changes indicate desperation. He expects Miller to outwork Hernandez and possibly finish him.

"I'm taking the experience here in Jim Miller I think he outworks this kid."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Alexander Hernandez

Hernandez has physical advantages in speed, power, and explosiveness, which should allow him to dictate the fight early. He can grind Miller against the cage or land a quick knockout. However, Miller's durability and cardio could become factors if Hernandez fades. Low confidence pick via decision.

Hernandez wins by decision
"I lean Hernandez... I'm gonna ultimately with very low confidence say that he wins this by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Paul picks Jim Miller but is hesitant, acknowledging Hernandez could land a big bomb early. He notes Miller's last three wins are all second-round finishes and that Hernandez tends to fall apart if he doesn't finish early. He says Miller is very live here and is the best underdog on the card. However, he won't bet the moneyline because he thinks the fight has to play out a certain way for Miller to win. He prefers a sprinkle on Miller round two and live betting.

Paul sprinkles Jim Miller round two. He says he's more interested in live betting if Miller survives round one. He mentions Miller was favored against Mata and Eric Gonzalez.
"I'm gonna sprinkle the round two prop for Jim Miller and uh and be more interested in entering uh from a live market perspective because if he's living after round one it is it's Miller time."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

The MMA Guru picks Jim Miller, noting that Alexander Hernandez has only one round of fight in him and is taking this fight on short notice after a recent loss where he took heavy damage. He believes Miller's veteran experience and toughness will allow him to survive Hernandez's early onslaught and then take over, predicting a TKO in the second or third round.

TKO in the second or third round
"I want to take Jim Miller here I'm gonna take Jim Miller they've made him an underdog against Alexander Hernandez who always has one round of fight in him"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident pick date unknown
Jim Miller

Zane picks Miller because Hernandez has fundamental issues with range and defense, and he overreacts to counter strikes. Miller is a good counter puncher and will find openings. Hernandez may win the first round, but if Miller survives, he can take over. Zane notes that Hernandez's confidence is fragile after moving back to lightweight.

Miller opened +210, now +191; Hernandez opened -250, now -241. Zane says he's surprised Miller is such an underdog and thinks even odds would be more accurate.
"I'll take Jim. Yeah, I'm gonna roll with it, too. I just her name did like it, you know, I said with the Jordan Wright situation. It's just like you see somebody in this kind of career limbo."