vs
+170 -177
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez Next Fight
Age 29
Height 5' 6"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 29
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Mariya Agapova
4.43 SLpM
54.0% Str. Acc.
3.62 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.55 TD Avg
66.0% TD Acc.
45.0% TD Def.
0.8 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Sabina Mazo
6.1 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
4.35 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
0.65 TD Avg
80.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Mariya Agapova
Moneyline
Caesars +170
KO/TKO
FanDuel +750
Submission
FanDuel +850
Decision
DraftKings +350
Sabina Mazo
Moneyline
BetRivers -177
KO/TKO
FanDuel +460
Submission
FanDuel +1000
Decision
BetWay +140
Mariya Agapova - Fight History
LOSS vs Luana Santos
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 3:27 · UFC on ESPN: Namajunas vs. Cortez · Jul 13, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Luana Santos 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 12 1 of 1 100% 3 0 2:23
Mariya Agapova 0 3 of 14 21% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Luana Santos 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 12 1 of 1 100% 3 0 2:23
Mariya Agapova 0 3 of 14 21% 20 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Luana Santos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mariya Agapova 3 of 14 21% 1 of 5 0 of 2 2 of 7 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Luana Santos 2 of 4 50% 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mariya Agapova 3 of 14 21% 1 of 5 0 of 2 2 of 7 3 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mariya Agapova vs. Luana Santos
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Santos (-395), Agapova (+280)

Round 1
Momentum is the name of the game for this upcoming flyweight tilt, as Santos (7-1, 2-0 UFC) has some behind her as the winner of four straight. Her adversary Agapova (10-4, 2-3 UFC) has struggled as of late, dropping two in a row by submission while not competing since September 2022. This classic matchup of Brazil vs. Kazakhstan will receive oversight from referee Joe Coca, and a clap of hands commences it. Agapova looks for strikes well out of range, and Santos reaches her with a body kick. Agapova stays back, leaping forward with a right hand and missing again. Santos closes in and connects with a pair of strikes, and Agapova dances away. Agapova jabs feet away from the target, and Santos strides forward brimming with confidence and decks Agapova with a right hand. Agapova climbs back to her feet, and Santos slings her right back down to the mat with emphasis. The Brazilian commits to an arm-triangle choke as she gets to half guard, and lets it go so she can facilitate a guard pass to the side. Agapova tries to use her legs to trap Santos in something and pull her back, but when this fails, Santos steps over into full mount and goes after an arm-triangle immediately. Santos gets the grip tight, and Agapova signals a thumbs-up and turns to the side to protect herself, all while coughing out her mouthpiece to breathe better. Santos resets and presses down, bailing on it to land a few body shots and then re-fastening the submission. Agapova keeps her mouthpiece barely in her teeth and turns around to get to her knees.
Santos follows her every step of the way and locks up the rear-naked choke in the blink of an eye. Agapova nearly lets her gumshield fall out of her mouth in desperation while fighting the hands, but there is nothing more she can do at this point. Agapova frantically taps
and completely spits her mouthpiece out as she feels consciousness leaving her body, and Coca rushes between them to conclude the fight. Santos jumps away and starts dancing, and the crowd eats it up.

The Official Result
Luana Santos def. Mariya Agapova R1 3:27 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock pick date unknown
Luana Santos

Angelo is extremely confident in Luana Santos due to a clear stylistic advantage: Santos has fantastic takedowns while Agapova has poor takedown defense. He expects Santos to grapple heavily and control the fight, similar to her performance against Stephanie Egger. He advises getting bets in early as Santos will likely be a heavy favorite by fight night.

Expects Santos to be minus 500 by fight night; advises to get bets in early.
"Lena Santos has fantastic takedowns Maria agapova has garbage takedown defense it literally is that simple"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Luana Santos

Cody picks Santos, citing her superior grappling and youth. He notes Agapova's personal issues, inactivity, and poor cardio. He expects Santos to take Agapova down and submit her, possibly in the first round.

Santos by submission (implied)
"Lana Santos is going to put a beat in onor here."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident pick date unknown
Luana Santos

Daniel Vreeland picks Luana Santos to win via ground control. He questions Agapova's mental state and ground game, noting that she gives up bad positions on the mat. He thinks Santos will take the fight to the ground and finish. He acknowledges Agapova's danger on the feet but expects Santos to avoid that.

"I'm gonna go with Lana to get this done when it hits the mat."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Luana Santos

Santos is too chalky but still likely wins. The fight is expected to go over 1.5 rounds and hit the scorecards. Santos will control the matchup, land a few takedowns, but Agapova will show enough resistance to reach a decision. The best attack is Santos by decision.

Santos by decision; over 1.5 rounds
"I expect this fight to go over one and a half rounds and I expect this fight to actually hit the scorecards so I think the best way to attack this matchup is actually taking Santos to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Luana Santos

Paul picks Santos, citing her grappling advantage and Agapova's questionable preparation. He notes Agapova's long layoff and altitude, and believes Santos will submit her. He suggests betting Santos by submission at plus money.

Santos by submission (implied)
"Luana Santos by submission I wonder what the prop is on that."
Technical Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:19 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gillian Robertson 0 39 of 58 67% 84 of 107 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:29
Mariya Agapova 0 4 of 14 28% 7 of 20 3 of 7 42% 1 0 4:47
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gillian Robertson 0 37 of 47 78% 82 of 96 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:29
Mariya Agapova 0 2 of 9 22% 2 of 9 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:13
2 Gillian Robertson 0 2 of 11 18% 2 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mariya Agapova 0 2 of 5 40% 5 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gillian Robertson 39 of 58 67% 36 of 53 3 of 5 0 of 0 9 of 27 5 of 6 25 of 25
Mariya Agapova 4 of 14 28% 0 of 5 1 of 2 3 of 7 4 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gillian Robertson 37 of 47 78% 36 of 44 1 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 16 5 of 6 25 of 25
Mariya Agapova 2 of 9 22% 0 of 5 1 of 1 1 of 3 2 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gillian Robertson 2 of 11 18% 0 of 9 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mariya Agapova 2 of 5 40% 0 of 0 0 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

Angelo picks Robertson because he sees a clear path: bully Agapova with takedowns and control, similar to what Marina Moroz did. He notes that Agapova has poor takedown defense and gives up when taken down. Robertson is not a dominant wrestler but can get the fight to the ground and control from top position. Angelo originally had no bets but may add some.

"i am gonna go with jillian here she's gonna have that same game plan as marina maros come in be the big sister bully her take her down beat her up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

Big Brady confidently picks Gillian Robertson to win by second-round submission. He highlights that Robertson is a BJJ black belt with strong takedowns and grappling, while Agapova struggles with takedown defense (42%) and cardio. Brady notes that Agapova has been controlled and submitted by grapplers like Marina Moroz and Tracy Cortez. He believes Robertson will implement her game plan, get the fight to the mat, and finish Agapova. However, he warns that if Robertson cannot get takedowns, Agapova could knock her out on the feet.

second round submission
"give me uh jillian robertson to win jillian robertson to win by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

Cody thinks Robertson's grappling advantage will be decisive, especially since her coach Dean Thomas knows Agapova from American Top Team. He notes Agapova's poor takedown defense and tendency to wilt under grappling pressure. He expects Robertson to get takedowns and control the fight.

"i will take julian robertson but uh yeah yeah this on a 14 fight card you don't have to overextend yourself"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

Daniel Levi leans Gillian Robertson contingent on her getting takedowns. He notes Robertson's game plan is to take down and submit, while Agapova has been finished on the mat before. However, if Agapova stuffs takedowns, she will light Robertson up on the feet. He does not bet due to uncertainty.

"I'll just lean with jillian to get it to the map but again picking jillian is contingent on her getting into the match"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

Jacob picks Robertson, emphasizing that Agapova showed zero urgency off her back against Moroz and gave up. He believes Robertson can copy that game plan: get in her face, clinch, trip, and dominate on the ground. Jacob notes that Robertson is underrated as a grappler and that Agapova always loses to someone who can out-wrestle and out-tough her. He included Robertson in a female parlay for premium members.

Included in a female parlay for premium members.
"jillian robertson is one of those people as you mentioned has fought some good people she i think she's actually pretty and i think this is a perfect match-up for because agapo will always lose to somebody that can out-wrestle …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

Robertson has a clear path to victory via takedowns and submissions. Agapova is the better striker but her takedown defense is suspect. Robertson's tenacity and pressure should get the fight to the ground, where she is a submission threat. The under 2.5 rounds at -150 is a strong play as both are finish-reliant. Robertson by submission at +150 is also appealing.

Under 2.5 rounds at -150, Robertson by submission at +150
"the way that I look to go about it actually was taking the under two and a half minus 150 is a great number in my opinion for two women that are finished Reliant"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Paul leans Agapova, citing her striking advantage and Robertson's poor wrestling. He acknowledges Agapova is inconsistent but thinks she can win if she keeps it standing. He's not confident enough to bet it.

"ever so slight lean towards agapova don't think i'm gonna get there from a betting perspective"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Gillian Robertson

The MMA Guru picks Gillian Robertson by submission. He notes that Mariya Agapova looks lost on the ground when taken down, as seen against Marina Moroz and Shayna Dobson. He believes Robertson's grappling, training under Dean Thomas, and recent submission wins will translate. He mentions Robertson is young (27) and has been training in grappling tournaments, so she knows the game plan to get takedowns and secure a submission.

submission win
"i'm gonna go with jillian robertson submission win"
LOSS vs Maryna Moroz
Submission (arm-triangle choke) R2 3:27 · UFC 272: Covington vs. Masvidal · Mar 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maryna Moroz 0 28 of 42 66% 51 of 74 2 of 5 40% 3 0 6:43
Mariya Agapova 0 16 of 27 59% 72 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:40
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maryna Moroz 0 2 of 6 33% 14 of 20 1 of 4 25% 2 0 3:28
Mariya Agapova 0 10 of 18 55% 40 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:39
2 Maryna Moroz 0 26 of 36 72% 37 of 54 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:15
Mariya Agapova 0 6 of 9 66% 32 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maryna Moroz 28 of 42 66% 21 of 33 7 of 8 0 of 1 2 of 8 7 of 7 19 of 27
Mariya Agapova 16 of 27 59% 7 of 15 9 of 9 0 of 3 4 of 15 12 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maryna Moroz 2 of 6 33% 0 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 1 0 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
Mariya Agapova 10 of 18 55% 3 of 8 7 of 7 0 of 3 0 of 8 10 of 10 0 of 0
2 Maryna Moroz 26 of 36 72% 21 of 31 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 4 5 of 5 19 of 27
Mariya Agapova 6 of 9 66% 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maryna Moroz

Angelo picks the underdog Moroz, citing her movement and recent addition of offensive takedowns. He thinks she can avoid the pocket and use technical striking. He notes Agapova is the favorite but the odds seem high. He expresses concern about Moroz pulling out of fights, as she hasn't fought in a year.

"i'm actually gonna go with the underdog here i like marina moroza's movement and the recent addition of offensive takedowns"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Maryna Moroz

Big Brady picks Maryna Moroz as an underdog, citing her superior grappling and top control. He notes that Agapova has poor takedown defense (33%) and can be controlled on the mat, as seen in her loss to Shayna Baszler. Brady believes Moroz's high-volume striking and ability to take the fight to the ground will be key. He also mentions that Agapova's power is a threat, but Moroz has a clear path to victory via takedowns and control.

Moroz by decision
"i'm going to go with the dog here in moroz i think there is some recency bias on this line"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Cody believes Agapova can win at range with her striking power, as seen against Sabina Mazo. He dismisses the Dobson loss as a bad day at the office due to personal issues. He thinks Moroz's wrestling is not elite and Agapova can land the more damaging shots. However, he acknowledges the wrestling wild card and advises watching weigh-ins.

"i think maria wins not marina maria agapova wins able to fight off her back feet landing the much more damaging shots"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Daniel Levi picks Mariya Agapova to win, possibly by finish. He notes that Agapova has more firepower and if her head is on straight, she will bust up Moroz on the feet. He acknowledges Moroz's craftiness and takedowns but thinks Agapova can stuff them. He references Agapova's last performance against Sabina Mazo and believes she is the more physical fighter. He is not concerned about the Shayna Dobson loss, calling it a fluke.

"i got agapova man i know she lost to shane adoption and it's tough to back someone that uh lost to shaina dobson at that number but the the latest performance um and maybe um i'm gonna go agape by …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Agapova has power and good footwork, as seen in her last win. Moroz is a solid all-around fighter but may struggle to take Agapova down and hold her there. Agapova's wide strikes could be countered by Moroz's straight shots, but Agapova should land the more significant strikes. The line is a bit wide; it should be closer to -130. Agapova via decision or late submission.

"i do agree though that agapova should be the favorite i do think the line is a little bit off though uh i do think that it should be closer i think i kept over closer to minus 130 minus …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Paul is hesitant because of Agapova's poor takedown defense (33%) and Moroz's improved wrestling in her last two fights. He notes Moroz has been pursuing takedowns and has good top control, while Agapova has only faced opponents who didn't wrestle. Paul has a bad gut feeling but officially picks Agapova, though he warns against overexposure.

"i think officially i am going to take out a capo ride or die at this point but i got a bad gut feeling"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

The MMA Guru picks Mariya Agapova over Maryna Moroz, citing Agapova's aggression, strength, and reach advantage. He notes Agapova showed patience in her last fight (submission win over Sabina Mazo) and believes she is a rising prospect. He predicts a first-round TKO, though he acknowledges Agapova has gassed in the past. He dismisses Moroz as inferior based on watching both fighters.

method: TKO, round: 1
"i'm gonna go with maria ragapova here first round tko something like that"
WIN vs Sabina Mazo
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:53 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mariya Agapova 0 62 of 159 38% 63 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Sabina Mazo 1 93 of 164 56% 99 of 170 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mariya Agapova 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sabina Mazo 0 53 of 86 61% 56 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mariya Agapova 0 28 of 69 40% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Sabina Mazo 0 29 of 57 50% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mariya Agapova 0 6 of 15 40% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sabina Mazo 1 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mariya Agapova 62 of 159 38% 35 of 113 13 of 22 14 of 24 61 of 158 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 93 of 164 56% 48 of 107 32 of 43 13 of 14 91 of 162 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mariya Agapova 28 of 75 37% 15 of 54 8 of 12 5 of 9 27 of 74 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 53 of 86 61% 28 of 58 18 of 21 7 of 7 51 of 84 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mariya Agapova 28 of 69 40% 17 of 49 4 of 7 7 of 13 28 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 29 of 57 50% 14 of 34 9 of 16 6 of 7 29 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mariya Agapova 6 of 15 40% 3 of 10 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 11 of 21 52% 6 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Angelo picks Sabina Mazo, citing her range and kicking ability. He thinks she can keep Agapova at distance and survive the early storm, then pick her apart for a decision. He notes Agapova gets hit more than she lands. He likes the less more on Monkey Knife Fight but has no betting action on this fight.

less more Monkey Knife Fight
"I've got Mazo winning a decision on the outside."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Cody is very confident in Mazo, citing her refined striking, volume, and stable camp. He details Agapova's personal issues, gym hopping, and poor performance against Shayna Dobson. He believes Mazo's consistency and skill set will overwhelm Agapova, predicting a decision or late finish.

Mazo straight up at -165 is good enough
"i gotta go with sabine mazzo to get the decision well maybe not even a decision let's just say sabine amazon 165 is good enough just take it straight up"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Daniel Levi leans toward Sabina Mazo because he has more questions about Mariya Agapova, especially after her loss to Shanna Dobson as a massive favorite. He sees both as strikers but notes Agapova has cardio and grappling issues. He acknowledges Mazo's head kicks and submission skills but is not highly confident, calling it a slight lean.

"i'm gonna lean mazo but it's not the most confident pick in the world"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Jacob leans towards Mariya Agapova due to her training at ATT, which he believes will lead to improved game planning and potentially a grappling-heavy approach. He thinks Agapova might come in with a wrestling game plan to exploit Mazo's grappling weaknesses. He likes her at plus 130 and might include her in an underdog parlay.

underdog parlay with Agapova and possibly Charles Rosa
"I like Agapova in this match-up just because of the ATT, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The host picks Sabina Mazo, believing her disciplined striking will be too much for Agapova. He doubts Agapova's grappling is good enough to take Mazo down and control her, unlike previous opponents who beat Mazo via wrestling. He notes Agapova's wild style and potential lifestyle issues, while Mazo is focused. He predicts a unanimous decision for Mazo.

"I like mazzo on this spot i i think her striking is gonna be the key in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Mazo's volume striking and Agapova's questionable durability and mental state. He mentions Mazo's experience and consistent training at Kings MMA. He is surprised the line is only -165 and expects Mazo to land many significant strikes.

"i'm actually kind of surprised that mazzo is uh only -165 here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Sabina Mazo by unanimous decision. He reasons that Mazo outgrappled Shayna Dobson, while Agapova was outgrappled by Dobson, giving Mazo a grappling edge. He also notes Mazo's reach advantage. However, he expresses confusion over Agapova's losses and calls women's MMA unpredictable.

Mazo by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with sabine marzo because she out grappled shayna dobson... i think she's going to have a big advantage in the grappling here over maria agapova"
LOSS vs Shana Dobson
TKO (punches) R2 1:38 · UFC on ESPN: Munhoz vs. Edgar · Aug 22, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shana Dobson 0 22 of 46 47% 56 of 89 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:11
Mariya Agapova 0 24 of 36 66% 41 of 59 2 of 2 100% 0 1 2:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shana Dobson 0 21 of 39 53% 53 of 79 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:31
Mariya Agapova 0 5 of 10 50% 15 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:47
2 Shana Dobson 0 1 of 7 14% 3 of 10 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:40
Mariya Agapova 0 19 of 26 73% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shana Dobson 22 of 46 47% 18 of 40 4 of 6 0 of 0 10 of 28 2 of 2 10 of 16
Mariya Agapova 24 of 36 66% 18 of 30 5 of 5 1 of 1 6 of 14 3 of 3 15 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shana Dobson 21 of 39 53% 17 of 33 4 of 6 0 of 0 9 of 21 2 of 2 10 of 16
Mariya Agapova 5 of 10 50% 0 of 5 4 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 7 3 of 3 0 of 0
2 Shana Dobson 1 of 7 14% 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mariya Agapova 19 of 26 73% 18 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 7 0 of 0 15 of 19
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Big Brady picks Mariya Agapova to win by first-round knockout. He sees no path to victory for Shana Dobson, who was knocked out in the first round by Priscila Cachoeira, a fighter not known for power. Agapova is a much better fighter with more upside, and Brady expects her to finish early. He is considering betting under 1.5 rounds or Agapova in round one.

Under 1.5 rounds; Agapova wins in round 1
"agapova's going to win this fight... i'm gonna pick her to win by first round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Daniel Levi picks Mariya Agapova to win by vicious finish, likely in the first round. He notes Agapova is a long, lefty striker with power and a Euro Joanna vibe, and that Shana Dobson has no business in the UFC, having been dominated in her last two fights. Levi expects Agapova to march Dobson down and finish her, possibly earning another $50k bonus. He jokes that the only question is whether it will be a head kick, body shot, or rear-naked choke.

finish, first round, $50k bonus
"i see agapova marching shayna dobson down and putting her in the ground so you know i'm gonna go with the acapulva to possibly get a her second 50g"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Agapova is a massive favorite against Dobson, who is on a three-fight losing streak and below .500 in the UFC. Agapova has power, movement, and confidence, and should easily finish Dobson early. The best bet is Agapova inside the distance, likely by submission in the first round. Avoid parlaying her straight due to poor value.

Agapova inside the distance at -335; Agapova by submission at +165; under 1.5 rounds at -160.
"i think she goes out there maybe first round and gets dobson down and you know submits her"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

The MMA Guru picks Mariya Agapova to win by first-round finish, calling it a mismatch. He notes Agapova's dominance over Hannah Cifers and Dobson's weak competition (combined 4-4 record of her wins). He predicts a first-round TKO or submission within the first two minutes.

first round finish
"maria agapova is gonna just molester inside one round"
WIN vs Hannah Cifers
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:42 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mariya Agapova 1 29 of 52 55% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:24
Hannah Cifers 0 11 of 32 34% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mariya Agapova 1 29 of 52 55% 36 of 59 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:24
Hannah Cifers 0 11 of 32 34% 14 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mariya Agapova 29 of 52 55% 20 of 41 8 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 35 10 of 17 0 of 0
Hannah Cifers 11 of 32 34% 4 of 21 3 of 5 4 of 6 7 of 23 4 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mariya Agapova 29 of 52 55% 20 of 41 8 of 10 1 of 1 19 of 35 10 of 17 0 of 0
Hannah Cifers 11 of 32 34% 4 of 21 3 of 5 4 of 6 7 of 23 4 of 9 0 of 0
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

The MMA Guru picks Mariya Agapova, calling her a phenom and the best female fighter out of Russia. He notes that Hannah Cifers steps in on short notice and walks forward headfirst, which will play into Agapova's slick combinations. He predicts Agapova will outclass Cifers on the feet and stuff takedowns, winning a decision.

Agapova wins by decision
"Maria a gap over is a phenom. I think she's gonna get the job done."
Sabina Mazo - Fight History
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:15 · UFC Fight Night: Santos vs. Ankalaev · Mar 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miranda Maverick 0 15 of 48 31% 24 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 19 of 50 38% 45 of 85 4 of 7 57% 1 0 4:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miranda Maverick 0 5 of 17 29% 14 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 9 of 21 42% 35 of 56 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:46
2 Miranda Maverick 0 10 of 31 32% 10 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 10 of 29 34% 10 of 29 1 of 3 33% 1 0 0:16
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miranda Maverick 15 of 48 31% 8 of 37 1 of 4 6 of 7 15 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 2
Sabina Mazo 19 of 50 38% 10 of 36 2 of 6 7 of 8 16 of 43 0 of 1 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miranda Maverick 5 of 17 29% 2 of 11 0 of 2 3 of 4 5 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 2
Sabina Mazo 9 of 21 42% 5 of 14 0 of 3 4 of 4 6 of 14 0 of 1 3 of 6
2 Miranda Maverick 10 of 31 32% 6 of 26 1 of 2 3 of 3 10 of 31 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 10 of 29 34% 5 of 22 2 of 3 3 of 4 10 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick because she is too strong and has too much forward pressure for Sabina Mazo. He notes that Mazo is a kickboxer with powerful kicks but lacks power in her hands, while Maverick is a technical striker with solid forward pressure and takedowns. He compares the matchup to Alexis Davis's win over Mazo, where Davis pressured and grappled her. Angelo is confident in Maverick's ability to replicate that game plan.

"I think miranda maverick is too strong and has too much forward pressure for mazzo here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win by decision. He notes Maverick's striking has improved significantly, but her clear path is takedowns and ground control. He criticizes Mazo's poor takedown defense and get-up game, citing the Alexis Davis fight. He thinks Maverick will grind out a decision, but won't bet at the current price (-310).

"i'll say she uh she grinds out a decision here some decision random maverick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

Cody is confident in Maverick, citing her wrestling and physicality. He notes Mazo's lack of power and takedown defense. He expects Maverick to dominate on the ground.

"i like random maverick and i would love to tell you that the fight's gonna go the distance"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

Daniel Levi picks Miranda Maverick, stating that she is more physical and has more paths to victory. He notes that Sabina Mazo has looked timid and uncomfortable, while Maverick will dictate where the fight goes. Levi acknowledges that Maverick has slowed down in past fights and that the price is high, but he still thinks she gets it done. He is not interested in laying that price himself.

i just personally am not interested in laying that kind of price on miranda maverick
"i still think she gets it done i still think she's slightly uh more physical and has more paths to victory so i'm gonna pick her for that reason i just personally am not interested in laying that kind of …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

Maverick is a well-rounded fighter with good wrestling and striking. She moves well and blends her attacks. Mazo is on a losing streak and struggles with pressure. Maverick is expected to close distance, land takedowns, and win via TKO in the third round. She is a strong parlay piece.

Inside the distance line is mentioned as a potential play; predicted third-round TKO via ground and pound.
"I like Maverick a lot in this spot. I think she cruises pretty easily. So, let's go ... I'm going to go Miranda Maverick second or third round let's call it third round TKO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

Paul is confident in Maverick, citing her wrestling and physicality. He notes Mazo's lack of power and takedown defense. He expects Maverick to dominate on the ground.

"i like random maverick and i would love to tell you that the fight's gonna go the distance"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Miranda Maverick

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick over Sabina Mazo, citing a clear grappling advantage. He notes that Mazo was held down easily by Alexis Davis and struggles to get back to her feet. He believes Maverick will mix in takedowns and dominate on the ground, predicting a 30-27 decision or a rear-naked choke. He acknowledges Mazo's length and range on the feet but thinks Maverick's wrestling will be the difference-maker.

30-27 decision or rear-naked choke
"i am going to go with miranda maverick here over sabine marzo i think miranda maverick's got a good grappling advantage here"
LOSS vs Mariya Agapova
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 0:53 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mariya Agapova 0 62 of 159 38% 63 of 161 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
Sabina Mazo 1 93 of 164 56% 99 of 170 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mariya Agapova 0 28 of 75 37% 28 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Sabina Mazo 0 53 of 86 61% 56 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mariya Agapova 0 28 of 69 40% 28 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
Sabina Mazo 0 29 of 57 50% 30 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mariya Agapova 0 6 of 15 40% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Sabina Mazo 1 11 of 21 52% 13 of 23 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mariya Agapova 62 of 159 38% 35 of 113 13 of 22 14 of 24 61 of 158 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 93 of 164 56% 48 of 107 32 of 43 13 of 14 91 of 162 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mariya Agapova 28 of 75 37% 15 of 54 8 of 12 5 of 9 27 of 74 1 of 1 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 53 of 86 61% 28 of 58 18 of 21 7 of 7 51 of 84 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Mariya Agapova 28 of 69 40% 17 of 49 4 of 7 7 of 13 28 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 29 of 57 50% 14 of 34 9 of 16 6 of 7 29 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mariya Agapova 6 of 15 40% 3 of 10 1 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 11 of 21 52% 6 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Angelo picks Sabina Mazo, citing her range and kicking ability. He thinks she can keep Agapova at distance and survive the early storm, then pick her apart for a decision. He notes Agapova gets hit more than she lands. He likes the less more on Monkey Knife Fight but has no betting action on this fight.

less more Monkey Knife Fight
"I've got Mazo winning a decision on the outside."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Cody is very confident in Mazo, citing her refined striking, volume, and stable camp. He details Agapova's personal issues, gym hopping, and poor performance against Shayna Dobson. He believes Mazo's consistency and skill set will overwhelm Agapova, predicting a decision or late finish.

Mazo straight up at -165 is good enough
"i gotta go with sabine mazzo to get the decision well maybe not even a decision let's just say sabine amazon 165 is good enough just take it straight up"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Daniel Levi leans toward Sabina Mazo because he has more questions about Mariya Agapova, especially after her loss to Shanna Dobson as a massive favorite. He sees both as strikers but notes Agapova has cardio and grappling issues. He acknowledges Mazo's head kicks and submission skills but is not highly confident, calling it a slight lean.

"i'm gonna lean mazo but it's not the most confident pick in the world"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Jacob leans towards Mariya Agapova due to her training at ATT, which he believes will lead to improved game planning and potentially a grappling-heavy approach. He thinks Agapova might come in with a wrestling game plan to exploit Mazo's grappling weaknesses. He likes her at plus 130 and might include her in an underdog parlay.

underdog parlay with Agapova and possibly Charles Rosa
"I like Agapova in this match-up just because of the ATT, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The host picks Sabina Mazo, believing her disciplined striking will be too much for Agapova. He doubts Agapova's grappling is good enough to take Mazo down and control her, unlike previous opponents who beat Mazo via wrestling. He notes Agapova's wild style and potential lifestyle issues, while Mazo is focused. He predicts a unanimous decision for Mazo.

"I like mazzo on this spot i i think her striking is gonna be the key in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Mazo's volume striking and Agapova's questionable durability and mental state. He mentions Mazo's experience and consistent training at Kings MMA. He is surprised the line is only -165 and expects Mazo to land many significant strikes.

"i'm actually kind of surprised that mazzo is uh only -165 here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Sabina Mazo by unanimous decision. He reasons that Mazo outgrappled Shayna Dobson, while Agapova was outgrappled by Dobson, giving Mazo a grappling edge. He also notes Mazo's reach advantage. However, he expresses confusion over Agapova's losses and calls women's MMA unpredictable.

Mazo by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with sabine marzo because she out grappled shayna dobson... i think she's going to have a big advantage in the grappling here over maria agapova"
LOSS vs Alexis Davis
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Rozenstruik vs. Gane · Feb 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexis Davis 0 49 of 83 59% 128 of 196 3 of 3 100% 0 0 8:50
Sabina Mazo 0 64 of 165 38% 71 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexis Davis 0 6 of 16 37% 39 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:51
Sabina Mazo 0 13 of 38 34% 13 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexis Davis 0 40 of 60 66% 50 of 72 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:24
Sabina Mazo 0 47 of 118 39% 48 of 119 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Alexis Davis 0 3 of 7 42% 39 of 63 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:35
Sabina Mazo 0 4 of 9 44% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexis Davis 49 of 83 59% 8 of 37 4 of 5 37 of 41 46 of 78 0 of 0 3 of 5
Sabina Mazo 64 of 165 38% 50 of 149 5 of 7 9 of 9 64 of 165 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexis Davis 6 of 16 37% 1 of 9 0 of 1 5 of 6 5 of 14 0 of 0 1 of 2
Sabina Mazo 13 of 38 34% 12 of 36 0 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexis Davis 40 of 60 66% 5 of 23 4 of 4 31 of 33 39 of 59 0 of 0 1 of 1
Sabina Mazo 47 of 118 39% 36 of 106 3 of 4 8 of 8 47 of 118 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexis Davis 3 of 7 42% 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2 2 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 2
Sabina Mazo 4 of 9 44% 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Big Brady picks Sabina Mazo to win by decision. He highlights Mazo's striking advantage: she throws more output (7.14 significant strikes per minute) and has better accuracy and defense. He notes Davis is 36, on a three-fight skid, and has poor takedown defense (32%), but Davis rarely uses her grappling. He thinks if Davis doesn't get takedowns, she will get pieced up. He acknowledges it's women's MMA and could be close, but favors Mazo comfortably.

decision win for Mazo
"i'm going to take mazda here to win by decision"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Daniel Levi picks Sabina Mazo, emphasizing the 13-year age gap and Mazo's youth and power. He notes Alexis Davis has not landed more than one takedown in a fight since 2014, and her striking defense is poor. Levi believes Mazo will outpoint Davis and eventually land a signature high kick for a knockout, as Davis takes too much damage and doesn't adjust.

"I just see sabine mazzo out pointing uh alexis davis but i think eventually at some point she will land that signature high kick and she will knock her out so i'm gonna go with uh sabine mazzo to get …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Alexis Davis

Davis has a huge experience advantage and a pressure-heavy style that should stifle Mazo. She catches kicks well and can take the fight to the ground, where she has good top control. Mazo has been controlled by wrestlers before, and Davis's durability should allow her to weather Mazo's striking. Expect a decision win for Davis.

"plus 200 on alexis davis does not really look that bad and then that's the side that i'm going to be leaning with"
WIN vs Justine Kish
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 3:57 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sabina Mazo 1 131 of 275 47% 131 of 275 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
Justine Kish 0 93 of 210 44% 94 of 212 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sabina Mazo 0 37 of 85 43% 37 of 85 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justine Kish 0 34 of 72 47% 35 of 74 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:32
2 Sabina Mazo 0 42 of 88 47% 42 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justine Kish 0 28 of 67 41% 28 of 67 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Sabina Mazo 1 52 of 102 50% 52 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:14
Justine Kish 0 31 of 71 43% 31 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sabina Mazo 131 of 275 47% 45 of 158 27 of 38 59 of 79 123 of 264 8 of 10 0 of 1
Justine Kish 93 of 210 44% 25 of 118 23 of 38 45 of 54 88 of 199 4 of 8 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sabina Mazo 37 of 85 43% 8 of 46 12 of 16 17 of 23 37 of 85 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justine Kish 34 of 72 47% 6 of 36 3 of 8 25 of 28 33 of 69 0 of 0 1 of 3
2 Sabina Mazo 42 of 88 47% 13 of 48 9 of 13 20 of 27 38 of 84 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justine Kish 28 of 67 41% 9 of 37 11 of 18 8 of 12 24 of 61 4 of 6 0 of 0
3 Sabina Mazo 52 of 102 50% 24 of 64 6 of 9 22 of 29 48 of 95 4 of 6 0 of 1
Justine Kish 31 of 71 43% 10 of 45 9 of 12 12 of 14 31 of 69 0 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Big Brady picks Sabina Mazo, noting she is young and improving, with a reach advantage. He thinks Mazo will bring more volume and out-strike Kish. He predicts Mazo by decision and would be surprised if the fight ends inside the distance. He is not betting it due to the price.

"give me mazzo by decision i really would be surprised if this fight did end inside the distance"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Justine Kish

The host believes the line is too wide for Mazo at -250, as Kish has a solid kickboxing background and high output. He notes Mazo has trouble when opponents close distance and with leg kicks, and expects Kish to be the busier fighter, potentially winning a close decision. He advises against parlaying Mazo at such short odds.

Kish by decision; line is too wide; would not parlay Mazo at -250
"I will go with justin kish I will say that she's going to win by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The MMA Guru picks Sabina Mazo because he was embarrassed by Justine Kish's boring performance against Lucie Pudilova, where nothing happened. He notes that Mazo is younger (23 vs 32), hungrier, and improving more between fights. He expects Mazo to keep Kish at range and out-strike her for three rounds, winning by unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go sabina marzo she's younger she's hungrier she's improving more and more every time she's only 23 years of age"
WIN vs JJ Aldrich
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sabina Mazo 0 118 of 323 36% 121 of 327 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
JJ Aldrich 0 58 of 144 40% 69 of 156 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sabina Mazo 0 29 of 97 29% 29 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 15 of 47 31% 15 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Sabina Mazo 0 46 of 133 34% 46 of 133 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 26 of 53 49% 31 of 59 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Sabina Mazo 0 43 of 93 46% 46 of 97 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:01
JJ Aldrich 0 17 of 44 38% 23 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sabina Mazo 118 of 323 36% 66 of 258 29 of 34 23 of 31 92 of 292 26 of 31 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 58 of 144 40% 45 of 125 10 of 13 3 of 6 49 of 132 9 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sabina Mazo 29 of 97 29% 16 of 78 4 of 6 9 of 13 29 of 96 0 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 15 of 47 31% 11 of 40 2 of 3 2 of 4 14 of 46 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Sabina Mazo 46 of 133 34% 32 of 116 7 of 8 7 of 9 42 of 129 4 of 4 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 26 of 53 49% 20 of 47 5 of 5 1 of 1 24 of 49 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Sabina Mazo 43 of 93 46% 18 of 64 18 of 20 7 of 9 21 of 67 22 of 26 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 17 of 44 38% 14 of 38 3 of 5 0 of 1 11 of 37 6 of 7 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident pick date unknown
JJ Aldrich

Daniel picks JJ Aldrich to win by unanimous decision. He notes that Aldrich has fought better competition, has a brown belt in jiu-jitsu, and cleaner boxing. He criticizes Mazo's debut performance and believes Aldrich's experience and pairing will be key.

"My pick is gonna be JJ Audra CH I think she's the better fighter and I think she wins a unanimous decision."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert pick date unknown
JJ Aldrich

The host briefly mentions picking JJ Aldrich over Sabina Mazo in quick picks, but provides no detailed reasoning.

"I got JJ Aldrich over Sabine Amazo"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident pick date unknown
JJ Aldrich

The host dismisses this fight as unimportant, stating 'no one cares' and quickly picks JJ Aldridge to win without any detailed reasoning. The pick is based on a lack of interest rather than technical analysis.

"JJ Aldridge is probably going to win moving on"
WIN vs Shana Dobson
Decision (unanimous) (30–24, 30–25, 30–25) R3 5:00 · UFC 241: Cormier vs. Miocic 2 · Aug 17, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sabina Mazo 0 108 of 171 63% 170 of 250 4 of 4 100% 0 0 10:50
Shana Dobson 0 33 of 99 33% 102 of 176 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sabina Mazo 0 30 of 46 65% 72 of 102 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:25
Shana Dobson 0 6 of 20 30% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Sabina Mazo 0 23 of 36 63% 26 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:29
Shana Dobson 0 19 of 43 44% 47 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
3 Sabina Mazo 0 55 of 89 61% 72 of 109 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:56
Shana Dobson 0 8 of 36 22% 41 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sabina Mazo 108 of 171 63% 49 of 98 50 of 60 9 of 13 44 of 85 38 of 55 26 of 31
Shana Dobson 33 of 99 33% 19 of 75 11 of 18 3 of 6 14 of 71 15 of 23 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sabina Mazo 30 of 46 65% 12 of 24 16 of 20 2 of 2 4 of 13 9 of 13 17 of 20
Shana Dobson 6 of 20 30% 4 of 15 1 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 13 2 of 4 2 of 3
2 Sabina Mazo 23 of 36 63% 0 of 7 20 of 23 3 of 6 11 of 20 12 of 16 0 of 0
Shana Dobson 19 of 43 44% 9 of 29 9 of 11 1 of 3 4 of 22 13 of 19 2 of 2
3 Sabina Mazo 55 of 89 61% 37 of 67 14 of 17 4 of 5 29 of 52 17 of 26 9 of 11
Shana Dobson 8 of 36 22% 6 of 31 1 of 3 1 of 2 8 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Maryna Moroz
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Barboza vs. Gaethje · Mar 30, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maryna Moroz 0 64 of 144 44% 73 of 157 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 56 of 190 29% 74 of 208 1 of 9 11% 0 0 7:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maryna Moroz 0 9 of 15 60% 13 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 9 of 33 27% 14 of 38 1 of 4 25% 0 0 3:50
2 Maryna Moroz 0 16 of 50 32% 21 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 23 of 73 31% 33 of 83 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:19
3 Maryna Moroz 0 39 of 79 49% 39 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Sabina Mazo 0 24 of 84 28% 27 of 87 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:56
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maryna Moroz 64 of 144 44% 21 of 87 19 of 25 24 of 32 61 of 138 2 of 5 1 of 1
Sabina Mazo 56 of 190 29% 27 of 150 18 of 28 11 of 12 47 of 174 4 of 9 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maryna Moroz 9 of 15 60% 3 of 8 1 of 1 5 of 6 8 of 13 0 of 1 1 of 1
Sabina Mazo 9 of 33 27% 4 of 27 5 of 6 0 of 0 2 of 24 2 of 2 5 of 7
2 Maryna Moroz 16 of 50 32% 5 of 35 5 of 6 6 of 9 15 of 48 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 23 of 73 31% 13 of 57 5 of 11 5 of 5 21 of 67 2 of 6 0 of 0
3 Maryna Moroz 39 of 79 49% 13 of 44 13 of 18 13 of 17 38 of 77 1 of 2 0 of 0
Sabina Mazo 24 of 84 28% 10 of 66 8 of 11 6 of 7 24 of 83 0 of 1 0 of 0
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Angelo picks Sabina Mazo, citing her range and kicking ability. He thinks she can keep Agapova at distance and survive the early storm, then pick her apart for a decision. He notes Agapova gets hit more than she lands. He likes the less more on Monkey Knife Fight but has no betting action on this fight.

less more Monkey Knife Fight
"I've got Mazo winning a decision on the outside."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Cody is very confident in Mazo, citing her refined striking, volume, and stable camp. He details Agapova's personal issues, gym hopping, and poor performance against Shayna Dobson. He believes Mazo's consistency and skill set will overwhelm Agapova, predicting a decision or late finish.

Mazo straight up at -165 is good enough
"i gotta go with sabine mazzo to get the decision well maybe not even a decision let's just say sabine amazon 165 is good enough just take it straight up"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Daniel Levi leans toward Sabina Mazo because he has more questions about Mariya Agapova, especially after her loss to Shanna Dobson as a massive favorite. He sees both as strikers but notes Agapova has cardio and grappling issues. He acknowledges Mazo's head kicks and submission skills but is not highly confident, calling it a slight lean.

"i'm gonna lean mazo but it's not the most confident pick in the world"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean pick date unknown
Mariya Agapova

Jacob leans towards Mariya Agapova due to her training at ATT, which he believes will lead to improved game planning and potentially a grappling-heavy approach. He thinks Agapova might come in with a wrestling game plan to exploit Mazo's grappling weaknesses. He likes her at plus 130 and might include her in an underdog parlay.

underdog parlay with Agapova and possibly Charles Rosa
"I like Agapova in this match-up just because of the ATT, honestly."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The host picks Sabina Mazo, believing her disciplined striking will be too much for Agapova. He doubts Agapova's grappling is good enough to take Mazo down and control her, unlike previous opponents who beat Mazo via wrestling. He notes Agapova's wild style and potential lifestyle issues, while Mazo is focused. He predicts a unanimous decision for Mazo.

"I like mazzo on this spot i i think her striking is gonna be the key in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Mazo's volume striking and Agapova's questionable durability and mental state. He mentions Mazo's experience and consistent training at Kings MMA. He is surprised the line is only -165 and expects Mazo to land many significant strikes.

"i'm actually kind of surprised that mazzo is uh only -165 here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant pick date unknown
Sabina Mazo

The MMA Guru hesitantly picks Sabina Mazo by unanimous decision. He reasons that Mazo outgrappled Shayna Dobson, while Agapova was outgrappled by Dobson, giving Mazo a grappling edge. He also notes Mazo's reach advantage. However, he expresses confusion over Agapova's losses and calls women's MMA unpredictable.

Mazo by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with sabine marzo because she out grappled shayna dobson... i think she's going to have a big advantage in the grappling here over maria agapova"