vs
-250 +250
UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021 · Catchweight (174 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez Next Fight
Age 35
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 32
Height 6' 0"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Randy Brown
4.49 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
3.33 SApM
54.0% Str. Def.
0.76 TD Avg
39.0% TD Acc.
73.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Jared Gooden
4.4 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
6.74 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.91 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
65.0% TD Def.
0.4 Sub. Avg
Randy Brown
Moneyline
BetMGM -250
KO/TKO
FanDuel +250
Submission
FanDuel +420
Decision
BetRivers +250
Jared Gooden
Moneyline
Caesars +250
KO/TKO
DraftKings +500
Submission
DraftKings +1600
Decision
FanDuel +650
Randy Brown - Fight History
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC 327 · Apr 11, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 56 of 91 61% 137 of 176 0 of 3 0% 2 0 4:05
Randy Brown 0 46 of 95 48% 67 of 121 0 of 4 0% 0 0 2:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 20 of 34 58% 48 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:41
Randy Brown 0 18 of 39 46% 23 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Kevin Holland 0 19 of 31 61% 25 of 37 0 of 2 0% 2 0 1:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 19 of 32 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:18
3 Kevin Holland 0 17 of 26 65% 64 of 77 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:42
Randy Brown 0 14 of 30 46% 25 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:25
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 56 of 91 61% 24 of 55 10 of 11 22 of 25 39 of 68 11 of 15 6 of 8
Randy Brown 46 of 95 48% 25 of 65 14 of 17 7 of 13 31 of 75 12 of 17 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 20 of 34 58% 9 of 20 1 of 1 10 of 13 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 8
Randy Brown 18 of 39 46% 8 of 26 5 of 5 5 of 8 14 of 35 1 of 1 3 of 3
2 Kevin Holland 19 of 31 61% 6 of 18 4 of 4 9 of 9 16 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 8 of 15 5 of 8 1 of 3 10 of 21 4 of 5 0 of 0
3 Kevin Holland 17 of 26 65% 9 of 17 5 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 15 8 of 11 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 30 46% 9 of 24 4 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 19 7 of 11 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, expressing frustration with Kevin Holland's unreliability and lack of care. He believes Brown is better everywhere, more serious, and has more power. He ends the cycle of picking Holland with caveats, stating Brown is the clear choice.

"I'm not picking his ass. There's no caveat, there's no [ __ ] I am not picking him. Randy is the better fighter. I think he's literally better everywhere."
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 5, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady is done with Kevin Holland due to his poor fight IQ and inconsistency. He thinks Randy Brown is the more skilled striker and will outstrike Holland, but worries about Brown's chin (recent KO losses). He expects a striking match and picks Brown by decision, but will not bet on the fight.

decision
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here... give me Randy Brown. Randy Brown by decision in this one."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody also picks Brown, noting Holland's one-foot-in-one-foot-out mentality and Brown's speed advantage. He thinks Brown's desire and game plan will edge out a close fight.

"I got Brown as well... Randy Brown's still going for it. Randy Brown's still willing to engage hard if need be and maybe just fights with a little bit more of a game plan."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor picks Randy Brown because Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting anymore. He notes that Holland is a goofy, messy fighter who doesn't want to do the right things, while Brown is capable of impressive performances despite occasional dumb mistakes. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown's ability to outwork Holland.

"I have to pick Randy Brown. I know some point in this fight, Randy Brown's going to make a really dumb mistake that will almost get him killed. But Kevin Holland might be too busy goofing around to actually take …"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland picks Randy Brown as part of the 'fade Kevin Holland world tour.' He believes Holland lacks motivation and fight IQ, while Brown is more focused and has the tools to outpoint him. He notes that Brown's jab and technical striking should be enough to win a decision or even get a finish.

"I got Randy Brown here. I don't know how he's going to do it. And even if Randy Brown loses, we're fading Kevin Holland his very next fight, too."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel is on the 'Fade Kevin Holland' tour, citing Holland's poor mentality and fight IQ. He thinks Brown will care more and perform better under less pressure.

"The fade Kevin Holland world tour rolls on, my friends. ... I'm going to pick Randy Brown to win this fight."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Apr 6, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

James picks Kevin Holland, believing he has more power and durability, and will come on as the fight progresses. He notes Brown may start well but expects Holland to find his rhythm.

"Kevin Holland is my official prediction. I will say I'll say submission, but I really don't know."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 7, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown is the better technical striker with a huge reach advantage. Holland's ego may lead him to strike with Brown, which is a mistake. Brown can pick Holland apart from distance and has good defensive grappling to avoid Holland's submissions. Holland's recent losses show he struggles against disciplined strikers. Brown should win a decision or even get a finish.

Brown wins by decision
"I'm going to go Brown here. I'm going to go Brown by decision. Uh and I think this minus 13 line is a damn good line to shoot on as well."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing Holland's declining desire and Brown's speed and crisp striking. He thinks Brown's jab and right hand will be effective against the similar-framed Holland.

"I got Brown as well, but I can't say that there's any really good reason behind it... I feel like Randy Brown's just got a little more desire, a little more left in the tank."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Kevin Holland. He thinks Brown will fight on the outside with low kicks and body shots, while Holland is an opportunist who doesn't follow game plans. He notes Brown's chin is suspect but believes he can win a 29-28 decision, possibly with Holland taking a close round.

"I'm going to go with Randy Brown here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 10, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane picks Randy Brown, agreeing that Kevin Holland is cooked and doesn't care about fighting. He notes that Holland is a mercenary who fights for money and has no goal other than getting paid, while Brown is more focused and capable. He expects a fun fight but trusts Brown to win.

"Same Randy Brown. At least the maddening thing about him is that he is always capable of being a fighter that you're really impressed by Kevin Holland. I don't think is he's becoming less and less capable of being a …"
LOSS vs Gabriel Bonfim
KO R2 1:40 · UFC Fight Night: Bonfim vs. Brown · Nov 08, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Bonfim 1 35 of 64 54% 35 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 33 of 87 37% 33 of 87 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Bonfim 0 24 of 43 55% 24 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 19 of 61 31% 19 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Gabriel Bonfim 1 11 of 21 52% 11 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Randy Brown 0 14 of 26 53% 14 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Bonfim 35 of 64 54% 11 of 36 1 of 1 23 of 27 33 of 62 2 of 2 0 of 0
Randy Brown 33 of 87 37% 11 of 48 9 of 21 13 of 18 33 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Bonfim 24 of 43 55% 6 of 21 0 of 0 18 of 22 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Brown 19 of 61 31% 7 of 33 3 of 14 9 of 14 19 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Gabriel Bonfim 11 of 21 52% 5 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 5 10 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 26 53% 4 of 15 6 of 7 4 of 4 14 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Randy Brown
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-180); Brown (+150)

Round 1
We’re here. It’s the main event. Without a doubt, this is one of the headliners of all time. Welterweights grace the Octagon for the next five rounds or fewer, and at night’s end, only one of these two athletes will likely be ranked—right now, only Bonfim (18-1, 5-1 UFC) is for the UFC. Brown (20-6, 14-6 UFC) feels he has finally turned the corner, other than a pair of tough losses to Bryan Battle and Jack Della Maddalena holding him back from breaking out of the “action fighter” category of his division. Referee Mark Smith brings them to the middle to issue final instructions, stepping back to allow the athletes to touch ‘em up. They do. It’s on with the show.
The athletes are tentative to engage, stabbing out jabs and the occasional low kick as the bout begins. Brown slowly, steadily builds up a work rate with distance in his favor, but the Brazilian is still able to reach him with kicks. Brown checks one kick, but a few more land with audible thuds. Bonfim keeps battering the lead leg, so Brown kicks him in the chest to back him off. The Brazilian strides through to connect with another chopping kick, and Brown is struggling to react to it. When he kicks, Brown throws himself off-balance, as he his having a hard time putting his full weight on his lead calf. Bonfim keeps targeting it with impunity, and he uses it to open up jabs. The kicks by themselves are proving extremely effective, as Brown rushes forward after taking one and knees Bonfim in the sternum. Brown wings a left hand, and he has to switch stances from the damage to his limb.
Bonfim kicks the front leg when available, catching Brown before Brown can punch him. The calf of Brown is swelling and welted just three minutes into the bout, and Brown’s power is already declining due to his struggles planting on his lead wheel. Bonfim works his way in through the gangly arms of his adversary to tag him with punches, with the leg kick rarely far away. Brown rattles off a one-two, but Bonfim’s low kicks have made Brown limp. The Brazilian chambers and fires a low kick on the other leg, nearly knocking Brown down. Brown goes for his own calf kick, and it gets checked hard. Brown bounces on his heels before doubling up on a jab to hurl a right hand behind it, and Bonfim sways with it and resets. A calf kick from Bonfim is so immediately effective that Brown leaps at him with his knee out, hand extended, and his finger jams in Bonfim’s eye socket. Luckily, Bonfim takes a few seconds to clear his vision, and they resume and stay generally out of range until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
Brown leads behind his jab to start off the round and keep his distance, although his front kick reaches out to cover much more ground. He uses it to set up a right hand, and strings several strikes behind it to the body and head. Bonfim counters and reaches his man with a pair of left hands. Brown gets up close to trade hands, and Bonfim meets him in the middle and ends his combo with a calf kick. He drives home a kick a bit higher on the thigh, and rips a right hand that Brown barely shoulder rolls in time. Bonfim doubles up on his chopping kick, and Brown is not a happy camper just six-and-a-half minutes into their fight. Bonfim flicks out a jab, and Brown ducks down to throw back a right hand. Bonfim answers with a crushing knee on the jaw, and Brown falls to his back with his hands at his side, the back of his melon clattering off the Octagon floor. On first glance, it appeared to be a double knockdown because Bonfim hits the canvas as well, but it was because he threw himself off-balance tossing the knee. Smith sprints over to stop the fight, with Brown not defending himself, but Brown rolls to his side and raises a ruckus that it was an early stoppage. He is cooled down quickly as replays show this was probably a fair and just stoppage—those that bet on Brown may disagree—but some fans, media and commentator Dominick Cruz express frustration that Brown did not have any more time to defend himself or possibly recover. The winning Brazilian calls for just one name: Colby Covington, whom he says he will retire. If that fight comes together, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Gabriel Bonfim def. Randy Brown R2 1:40 via TKO (Knee)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown because he believes Brown is the better striker with great range and solid takedown defense. He notes that Gabriel Bonfim struggled with takedowns against Wonderboy and that Brown's length and boxing from the outside will be key. He also mentions that Brown was screwed in a previous decision and is a very good fighter.

"I'm going with Randy Brown here. Especially if he can drag this fight out. I also think Randy Brown got screwed in that decision against Bryan Battle."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady sees this as Bonfim early or Brown late. He notes Bonfim has power and an opportunistic submission game, and Brown has been submitted and knocked out before. He thinks Bonfim can get an early finish, possibly by first-round submission, but if it goes to the third round, Brown will take over. He mentions a potential live bet on Brown.

first round submission, live bet on Brown
"I'll say Bon Fem gets it gets it early and wins this fight by first round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody thinks Bonfim's cardio is suspect in a five-round fight and that Brown's length, straight punches, and volume will pose problems as the fight goes on. He notes Bonfim's takedowns are explosive early but fade, and Brown can survive early rounds and take over later. He prefers to bet Brown live after the first round rather than straight up.

"I'm just going to take Randy Brown. But live betting him is going to be way better than the pick right now."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 2, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Lucrative James picks Gabriel Bonfim to win, but he is not confident. He notes Bonfim's strong first round and submission threat (72% of wins via submission), but questions his cardio and ability to finish Randy Brown. He expects Bonfim to win round one and then edge out a decision, as Brown's style may not pressure Bonfim into gassing. He also mentions a potential over bet or goes to decision prop.

goes to decision
"I'm going to go with Gabriel Bomb theme cuz I'm picking him to win round one and then he only needs to win one out of the next two rounds to win the fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

The host expects chaos and considers the under 2.5 rounds at plus money. He believes Bonfim will drag Brown to the ground and use his superior BJJ to secure a submission within two and a half rounds.

Under 2.5 rounds (+ money), submission
"I think it's just a matter of time before Bomb Fume drags Brown to the ground and utilizes his superior BJJ advantage. And that should allow him to wrap up a submission and force the tap like I said within …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 5, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Paul picks Bonfim but has no interest in the minus 180 price. He thinks Bonfim's cardio has improved and he can get a finish early, possibly by submission or knockout. He suggests betting the under 2.5 rounds as a better play than the moneyline.

under 2.5 rounds
"Bonfim is going to be the pick for me. I think he probably does get the chin or catch his chin or find takedowns and work his BJJ."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The Guru picks Randy Brown to win by third-round TKO. He believes Brown's experience and striking will be key, especially if he survives Bonfim's early grappling. He notes Bonfim's tendency to fade if he doesn't get a quick submission, and Brown's ability to stuff takedowns and pick him apart at range.

round 3 TKO
"I'm going to go with Randy Brown getting this one done in TKO fashion. Round two or three. Probably round three."
WIN vs Nicolas Dalby
KO R2 1:39 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 54 of 114 47% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 1 26 of 74 35% 40 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 22 of 52 42% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nicolas Dalby 1 15 of 39 38% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
2 Randy Brown 1 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 54 of 114 47% 45 of 103 5 of 7 4 of 4 54 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 26 of 74 35% 12 of 52 1 of 3 13 of 19 25 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 22 of 52 42% 19 of 48 1 of 2 2 of 2 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 15 of 39 38% 6 of 23 0 of 1 9 of 15 14 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Randy Brown 32 of 62 51% 26 of 55 4 of 5 2 of 2 32 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 35 31% 6 of 29 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-238), Dalby (+195)

Round 1
A clash of well-traveled welterweights keeps the main card pushing. Looking to get back in the win column, Brown (19-6, 13-6 UFC) will have to outlast the ultra-durable Dane Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC; 7-4-1, 1 NC UFC) as the latter has never been finished. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready should this go the full duration, and he commences the nonsense-free bout as Brown sprints at his opponent without a glove touch in sight. Brown pulls back before crashing into his opponent, and he repositions himself to his preferred distant striking range with significant reach in his favor on the hands and legs. He uses those long arms to set up jabs and stay away from Dalby’s reaching left hook, but the slapping kick from Dalby is effective on the front leg. He goes for it two more times before having to reset and absorb a right hand on the chin. Dalby gets off with another kick, and Brown freezes him with a clubbing right hook. The Dane gathers himself and slings back, but the only one that lands is his low kick on the calf. Brown leaves himself wide open and is skipped with a left hand on the temple. Frustrated by the strike, “Rude Boy” puts everything he has into a left and a vicious right hand, not only staggering Brown but completely shattering his nose like Marsha and the football. Eternally tough, Dalby manages to bounce off the fencing and swing back, but he is compromised from a damage and breathing perspective. Brown does not go for broke, instead picking his shots carefully, and he inflicts further harm and swells up Dalby’s left eye. Dalby complains about an eye poke, and Peterson tells Brown to not leave his fingers outstretched. Brown acknowledges this and wings a right hand, only to get belted with a massive hook that knocks him off his feet. Dalby pounces, blood pouring from his destroyed nose, and he works Brown over with short ground strikes. Dalby uses his arm to control Brown, and he drops down one more elbow before the bell. The doctors are quick to assess Dalby’s condition, and they appear to partially reset his beak while tending to it. It probably will not stay that way for long when getting punched again in the next round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brown

Round 2
Dalby is good to go, giving Peterson a thumbs-up even as his left eye is nearly closed. He is fired up, rushing after “Rude Boy” with swarming punches and swinging kicks. Brown flicks out jabs and front kicks, allowing Dalby to buzz past him, and he punctuates a combo with a hard body kick. Dalby strikes the front leg and comes up short with an overhand right, and Brown continues to pepper the face with jabs and a mean-spirited front kick. Brown’s jab keeps Dalby at bay until Dalby has had enough of taking them, walking through a knee to the body and launching a huge right hand. Brown bounces off the fence, in trouble but still in the fight, and he separates and backpedals. Dalby continues crashing towards his opponent, launching big right hands that force Brown to take desperate measures to stay out of danger. Brown grabs hold of Dalby in a brief clinch to turn him around and his back to the wall, and he measures his target with a step-in knee and a short but sweet right hand directly on the jaw that buckles Dalby’s knees. Dalby recognizes this and bounces on them to try to shake it off, and Brown uncorks a nasty right hand on the jaw that hurts “Danish Dynamite” badly. Dalby uses the fence behind him to stay upright, and Brown waits for Dalby to stand straight up and smashes him in the face with a ferocious overhand right and a speedy left to follow. Dalby not only takes them on the chin but fires back with his own short salvo, catching Brown but taking some punishment on the way in. The 40-year-old has to take a second to step back and assess his condition, and he evades a massive uppercut by a matter of millimeters. Brown keeps swinging, ignoring anything coming back his direction and unloading a nuclear missile of a right hand that explodes on the temple and puts Dalby down once and for all. Brown walks away, saluting his fallen adversary, while Peterson rushes in along with a doctor to check on Dalby who is crumpled in a heap. “Knockout of the Year,” you have a new contender as Dalby had never been finished as a professional and he is laying down face-first in a pool of his own blood. What an incredible knockout, concluding a titanic brawl that will remain on highlight reels for years to come. Dalby comes to, and he is able to applaud Brown for his handiwork.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Nicolas Dalby R2 1:39 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.

"Randy Brown is a high IQ fighter with good technical striking. And I think Randy Brown pieces up Nicholas Dolby."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.

fight goes to decision
"Brown and Brown by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.

"I'm going to take Dolby. Yeah, I'm going to take Dolby to just for the, that sheer drive to win rounds that Randy Brown simply does not have."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.

"I believe his reliance on his hardware is going to start to deteriorate allowing Brown to showcase those flaws in DB's game and we'll see a classic Brown performance where he batters Dobby from distance eventually winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.

"I'm going to go Randy Brown. I think he's picked up some like savvy techniques to sort of more educatedly get through a 29 28 that some of these other prospects just haven't seen when they go up against Nicholas …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.

"I would take, I will take the drive over the tools, frankly."
LOSS vs Bryan Battle
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryan Battle 0 60 of 111 54% 80 of 135 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:46
Randy Brown 0 57 of 110 51% 109 of 175 0 of 6 0% 0 0 7:25
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryan Battle 0 21 of 45 46% 29 of 56 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Randy Brown 0 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:18
2 Bryan Battle 0 15 of 29 51% 21 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:56
Randy Brown 0 22 of 41 53% 56 of 86 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:37
3 Bryan Battle 0 24 of 37 64% 30 of 44 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Randy Brown 0 21 of 38 55% 35 of 54 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryan Battle 60 of 111 54% 32 of 79 22 of 26 6 of 6 49 of 96 11 of 15 0 of 0
Randy Brown 57 of 110 51% 20 of 64 31 of 38 6 of 8 27 of 76 30 of 34 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryan Battle 21 of 45 46% 11 of 32 9 of 12 1 of 1 19 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
Randy Brown 14 of 31 45% 4 of 17 9 of 11 1 of 3 11 of 27 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Bryan Battle 15 of 29 51% 11 of 25 3 of 3 1 of 1 13 of 26 2 of 3 0 of 0
Randy Brown 22 of 41 53% 6 of 23 13 of 15 3 of 3 7 of 25 15 of 16 0 of 0
3 Bryan Battle 24 of 37 64% 10 of 22 10 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 28 7 of 9 0 of 0
Randy Brown 21 of 38 55% 10 of 24 9 of 12 2 of 2 9 of 24 12 of 14 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Angelo picks Bryan Battle, believing his forward pressure and dirty boxing will frustrate the more technical Randy Brown. He notes Battle's improvements and work ethic, but acknowledges he gets hit a lot. Angelo thinks the clash of styles favors Battle, as he can brawl the boxer. He is monitoring the line movement and may bet if Battle's odds drop to -150.

If odds drop to -150, will bet
"I am going to pick Brian battle"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Cody picks Battle, citing his power and improving skills. He notes Brown's tendency to struggle against pressure fighters and thinks Battle will land big shots. He expects a knockout win for Battle.

Battle by knockout
"Battle by knockout is on the table."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Connor is confident in Battle because his new pressure-fighting style is the exact antidote to Randy Brown. He notes that Brown has historically struggled against pressure fighters who are willing to eat shots and counter, as seen in his losses to Jack Della Maddalena and Vicente Luque. Connor believes Battle's aggression, power, and willingness to trade will overwhelm Brown, who tends to hit the fence and fall apart. He also points out that Battle's recent performances show a clear, winning game plan.

"I gotta pick battle here 100 percent brian battle 100 percent this feels like his kind of fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel picks Brown as an underdog, citing his experience, reach, and cleaner technique. He believes Battle's competition has been weak and that Brown's length and footwork will be too much. He expects Brown to pick Battle apart.

"I think it's Randy Brown's time. I think he's going to set back Brian Battle."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Battle's aggressiveness in the clinch and grappling will break down Randy Brown and lead to a second or third round finish.

finish in rounds 2-3
"I believe the aggressiveness in the clinch and grappling realm of battle will allow him to break down Randy Brown and eventually lead to a second or third round finish for Brian battle"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

Paul picks Battle, emphasizing his momentum and power. He notes Brown's age and suspect chin, and thinks Battle's pressure will be too much. He expects a finish inside the distance.

"Battle for me, Battle potentially inside the distance."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Bryan Battle

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Battle, citing his volume, hustle, and cardio. He thinks Battle will out-volume Brown on the feet and that Brown lacks takedown threats to mix in. He notes Brown has lost close decisions before and that lesser fighters have made it close with Brown. He predicts a close 29-28 decision, possibly split.

"I'm gonna go with Brian battle I think he's got that next thing that puts him over Fighters that are slightly lesser"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Bryan Battle

Zane also confidently picks Battle, agreeing that his pressure style is the key to beating Brown. He notes that Brown has always struggled against fighters who walk him down and put combinations together against the fence. Zane highlights that Battle has evolved from a reactive fighter to an aggressive pressure fighter, and that this new approach makes him a dangerous matchup for Brown. He believes Battle will overwhelm Brown with volume and power.

"I 100 percent taking brian battle here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 67 of 141 47% 89 of 166 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:42
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 26 of 76 34% 42 of 94 4 of 7 57% 1 0 5:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 34 of 71 47% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 9 of 34 26% 9 of 34 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Randy Brown 0 8 of 18 44% 15 of 25 0 of 0 --- 2 1 0:32
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 3 of 7 42% 19 of 25 3 of 5 60% 1 0 3:52
3 Randy Brown 0 25 of 52 48% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 0 14 of 35 40% 14 of 35 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 67 of 141 47% 50 of 120 5 of 8 12 of 13 61 of 133 2 of 2 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 26 of 76 34% 8 of 50 3 of 9 15 of 17 24 of 73 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 34 of 71 47% 24 of 60 2 of 3 8 of 8 33 of 70 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 9 of 34 26% 2 of 22 3 of 6 4 of 6 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 8 of 18 44% 7 of 16 1 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 12 0 of 0 4 of 6
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 6 0 of 0 1 of 1
3 Randy Brown 25 of 52 48% 19 of 44 2 of 3 4 of 5 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos 14 of 35 40% 4 of 22 0 of 3 10 of 10 13 of 33 1 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown but with reduced confidence after studying Elizeu Zaleski. He believes Brown's length and range striking will keep him safe, and that Zaleski is chinny and can be dropped. However, he acknowledges Zaleski's toughness and ability to rally, so he leaves Brown out of the safety parlay.

"Randy Brown Remains the pick but I'm telling you my gut reaction was all right safety parlay Randy Brown and then I was like I'll leave him out of the safety parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Big Brady is fading Randy Brown, expecting the fight to go to decision. He thinks Brown won't shoot takedowns or get an early finish, and doesn't expect crazy volume. He notes if there is a finish, it likely comes from Zaleski dos Santos. He is comfortable staying away from Brown.

Fight goes to decision, Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos wins by decision or late finish
"fade is gonna be Randy Brown 8,500 I don't think he's finishing uh dos santoso Santos early"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown but is hesitant, acknowledging Zaleski's danger. He likes Brown's length, jab, and game plan but notes Brown has slowed down and his defensive grappling is suspect. Cody worries that Zaleski's power and forward pressure could sway judges. He plans to keep Brown low on parlays and might switch to Zaleski after weigh-ins.

"I think I'm going to go with Brown... but I fully recognize that Zaleski is going to be dangerous... it's going to be close and contentious."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff, emphasizing that Zaleski dos Santos relies on distance striking and leg kicks, but Brown's reach and takedown ability neutralize that. He sees Brown piecing him up from distance and potentially taking him down. Vreeland notes Brown is crafty everywhere and can adapt to any scenario.

"I think Brown's gonna piece him up from distance he's probably gonna put the pressure on him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel likes Brown's recent confidence and footwork, and thinks Zaleski's chin is declining. He expects Brown to find openings with his jab and straight right, possibly getting a first-round KO. He laid -160 for two units.

"I actually took Randy Brown here minus 160"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jeff Fox picks Randy Brown, citing his size advantage (4 inches height, 5 inches reach) and well-rounded skills. He notes Brown is sneaky good, has no real weaknesses, and can win on the feet or with takedowns. Fox believes Zaleski dos Santos will struggle to deal with Brown's reach and pressure, and that Brown can mix in wrestling to keep things interesting.

"give me the rude boy sneaky good fighter... I think the size is going to be a big issue here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host expects Brown to use his size, reach, and footwork to keep Zaleski at range and win a decision. Zaleski's inactivity and age are concerns, and his unorthodox style may not overcome Brown's disciplined jab and movement. Brown's recent improvements in range management should allow him to cruise to a decision victory.

"Give me Brown and Brown by decision."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos

Paul leans toward Zaleski as a dog, citing his forward pressure, damaging blows, and ability to land bigger shots. He notes Brown's style is conservative and may not impress judges, while Zaleski's aggression and power could sway them. Paul mentions Zaleski's age (37) but says he still throws heat and has good cardio. He sees this as a 50/50 fight and likes the plus money.

"I feel like the bigger shots, the forward pressure, the live crowd... Zaleski is a dog with a shot here at plus 150 in a fight that I could see being pretty 50/50."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, believing his height and reach will trouble Zaleski dos Santos. He notes that Zaleski struggles against taller opponents and is older (37) with potential decline. Brown has good boxing at range and recent TKO wins. He predicts Brown by TKO.

Brown by TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown I really like this matchup for him"
KO (punches) R1 3:17 · UFC Fight Night: Dolidze vs. Imavov · Feb 03, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 1 13 of 46 28% 13 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 22 45% 10 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 13 of 46 28% 6 of 33 1 of 5 6 of 8 12 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 22 45% 0 of 9 1 of 2 9 of 11 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 13 of 46 28% 6 of 33 1 of 5 6 of 8 12 of 45 0 of 0 1 of 1
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 22 45% 0 of 9 1 of 2 9 of 11 10 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-245), Salikhov (+200)

Round 1
A killer welterweight matchup originally scheduled for UFC 296 in December, rescheduled due to Brown falling ill, now blesses “UFC Vegas 85.” While Brown and Salikhov lose the full-arena vibe, they do see their scrap promoted from curtain-jerker to feature fight. Lubbock, Texas’ own Kerry Hatley draws his final referee assignment of the night. The “Rude Boy” and “King of Kung Fu” immediately begin exchanging kicks. Salikhov goes low with quick calf kicks, which Brown counters with long flicking front kicks to the midsection. Salikhov tries a spinning wheel kick which falls short, but had murderous speed on it. A minute and a half in, not much has landed outside of low kicks, but it feels as though either man might bust this fight—and maybe his foe—wide open at any moment. Salikhov’s chopping kicks to Brown’s lead leg are starting to land with increasing frequency and force. Brown reaches out with his left hand and the extended fingers swipe Salikhov’s eye. The two touch hands in recognition of the foul before Hatley even calls time, but Salikhov does take his time to blink it out. They go back to work and Brown stocks out a fast jab, feints with his right hip and then comes back with a kick from the other side.
Out of nowhere, Brown crushes Salikhov with a jab and a blistering right cross. Salikhov goes down and Brown appears to hesitate before following up. With no stoppage forthcoming Brown lands a single standing-to-ground right on the turtled Russian, and that’s enough to spur Hatley into action.
Highlight-reel knockout from Randy Brown.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Muslim Salikhov R1 3:17 via KO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his length and range management. He notes that Muslim Salikhov is dangerous but slowing down at 39, losing cardio and power. He expects Brown to use his reach, work takedowns, and out-technique the aging veteran.

"Randy Brown's going to be the pick I'm pretty confident in him"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown to win by second-round submission (club and sub). He notes that Brown is younger, bigger, has a massive reach advantage, better cardio, and better grappling. He questions Salikhov's age (believes he's older than 39) and notes his low volume, poor cardio, and grappling holes. Brady has been burned by Brown as a favorite before but thinks this is a good matchup.

second round, submission (club and sub)
"I'm going to take Brown here um last time these two fought I did pick like a club and sub I'll stick with that give me Randy Brown Club and sub second round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown, citing Salikhov's age (39), poor cardio, and low volume. Brown's reach and movement should keep him safe, and he expects Brown to win a decision or possibly a late finish. He notes Salikhov's only path is an early KO.

Randy Brown by decision
"I'm gonna take Randy Brown probably by decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 29, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Brown uses his long reach and distance striking to pick opponents apart, and should be able to circle away from Salikhov's power. Salikhov is 39 and slowing down, with a speed disadvantage. Brown's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet if taken down will be key. The host expects Brown to win decisively by decision.

"I think we'll see brown win this fight pretty decisively and I think it comes in the form of him outp pointing outworking and out striking salikov on the feed on route to a decision Victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, agreeing with Cody. He notes Brown's 9-inch reach advantage and Salikhov's decline. He likes Brown by decision at +120 but says the market is accurate and he may not bet it heavily.

Randy Brown by decision +120
"Randy Brown by decision I mean it's plus 120 plus 125 like definitely gets you off of that money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown over Muslim Salikhov, predicting a late TKO. He notes Salikhov is 39 and has looked his age, while Brown has an 8-inch reach advantage. He believes Brown can keep Salikhov at range with jabs, teeps, and low kicks, and that Salikhov's power is limited to a few shots. He trusts Brown's ability to avoid Salikhov's right hand, as he did against Khaos Williams.

late TKO
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown over Muslim salikov... I am going to go with Randy Brown actually getting a late TKO here."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Emmett vs. Topuria · Jun 24, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 64 of 134 47% 78 of 156 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:47
Wellington Turman 0 55 of 105 52% 96 of 153 0 of 5 0% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 31 of 69 44% 31 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Wellington Turman 0 25 of 52 48% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
2 Randy Brown 0 15 of 30 50% 28 of 50 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Wellington Turman 0 12 of 18 66% 42 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:17
3 Randy Brown 0 18 of 35 51% 19 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:09
Wellington Turman 0 18 of 35 51% 28 of 46 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 64 of 134 47% 21 of 85 17 of 23 26 of 26 53 of 121 11 of 13 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 55 of 105 52% 19 of 60 10 of 14 26 of 31 43 of 90 12 of 15 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 31 of 69 44% 10 of 46 7 of 9 14 of 14 31 of 69 0 of 0 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 25 of 52 48% 5 of 26 2 of 3 18 of 23 24 of 51 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 15 of 30 50% 3 of 17 3 of 4 9 of 9 5 of 20 10 of 10 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 12 of 18 66% 4 of 10 4 of 4 4 of 4 7 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
3 Randy Brown 18 of 35 51% 8 of 22 7 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 32 1 of 3 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 18 of 35 51% 10 of 24 4 of 7 4 of 4 12 of 27 6 of 8 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo is confident in Randy Brown, citing his length, power, takedown defense, and BJJ. He expects Brown to stay on the outside and jab, avoiding a ground game. He notes Wellington Turman's striking looked good in his last fight but doesn't think it will be enough against Brown's reach and skills.

"Randy is one of my more confident picks here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing a significant striking advantage with a six-inch reach advantage. He notes Turman's questionable chin, having been knocked out by Andrew Sanchez. He acknowledges Turman's path to victory via wrestling but believes Brown's grappling is good enough to defend. He predicts a first-round knockout, especially if Turman has a bad weight cut.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say round knocks out willing to determine here I think it does it in the first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Brown, noting his speed and linear striking. He expects Turman to gas after the first round and Brown to take over. He mentions Turman's poor takedown accuracy and cardio issues.

"I think Randy Brown will be able to dance around this guy and tee off when need be."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Connor believes Randy Brown should win this fight easily. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Connor also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.

"I think there's just a lot of room for error. That's where Randy Brown and that means a lot of room for fun."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Daniel Levi picks Randy Brown, citing his length, skill, and experience. He notes Brown's occasional showboating and chin questions but thinks he is the more skilled fighter. He is not laying -220 due to Brown's inconsistency and Turman's danger, but picks Brown to win.

Pass on betting; picks Brown.
"I do think Randy Brown's the more skilled fighter so I am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The host picks Randy Brown to win by decision. He believes Brown's slick striking and distance management will be too much for Turman, who struggles to close the distance and get takedowns. He notes Turman's grappling advantage is nullified if he can't get the fight to the ground, and expects Brown to pick him apart from range.

"give me Randy Brown to win by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul picks Brown, citing his speed and reach advantage. He expects Brown to use his jab and movement to win a decision, though he notes Turman's strength and potential grappling. He considers live betting if Turman wins the first round.

Live betting considered.
"I'm gonna take him by decision but turman's also been ko'd a few times."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The Guru picks Randy Brown, expressing concern about Wellington Turman moving down to welterweight. He believes Brown has a clear skill advantage on the feet and that Turman's weight cut will leave him vulnerable. He predicts Brown will pick Turman apart with knees and elbows in the clinch and finish by TKO in the second round after Turman fails takedown attempts.

Predicts TKO in the second round.
"I'm gonna go with Randy Brown getting a TKO here at some point in the second round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Zane agrees that Randy Brown should win. He notes that Brown has limitations like poor kick defense and a tendency to throw one shot from range that puts him out of position, but Turman's game is entirely based on dogged toughness and cage wrestling. Turman's takedowns come from the cage, not open space, and Brown is a great clinch fighter and hard to take down against the cage. Zane also points out that Turman is dropping down a division and has a six-inch reach disadvantage, making Brown feel fast. He thinks there's a lot of room for error for Brown, meaning a lot of room for fun.

"I think there's just a lot of room for error. That's where Randy Brown and that means a lot of room for fun."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:13 · UFC 284: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski · Feb 12, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Della Maddalena 1 14 of 31 45% 18 of 35 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:15
Randy Brown 0 11 of 39 28% 11 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Della Maddalena 14 of 31 45% 9 of 23 1 of 2 4 of 6 5 of 18 2 of 2 7 of 11
Randy Brown 11 of 39 28% 6 of 33 2 of 3 3 of 3 11 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Jack Della Maddalena
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Della Maddalena (-315), Brown (+260)

Round 1
Two welterweights on solid win streaks will enter, and only one will leave with it intact. Since losing his first two pro outings, Maddalena (13-2, 3-0 UFC) has strung 13 wins in a row, while Brown (16-4, 10-4 UFC) has rattled off four straight in the Octagon. A spot in the top 15 and a big next matchup likely looms for the victor, but this is no easy ask for either man first. Referee Marc Goddard will take charge of the cage in this “featured fight of the night,” and there is no fist bump before it all goes down. Brown uses his reach right out of the gate, pushing out a long jab to split the guard of the heavy-handed Aussie. A rude chant rains down against Brown, who is fighting a Perth local. Brown stays on the outside with front kicks, jab, single strikes and accurate blows to not let Maddalena close in on him. Maddalena strikes the low calf a few times, and Brown pushes off with his fingers outstretched and is warned for this. Brown picks and pokes at his foe with reaching strikes, switching stances and scoring teep kicks while circling away from Maddalena’s power. Maddalena blazes forward, and with a fiery right hand he scorches his opponent behind the ear. The resounding blow separates Brown from his faculties, who falls face-first to the mat. Maddalena leaps on top to pound on Brown, delivering punishment with hammerfist after unanswered hammerfist. Brown works his way to the wall, but in the process, he surrenders his back. Maddalena latches on from behind, and he sinks both hooks in and simultaneously sets up the rear-naked choke. The two are still dry and Maddalena is at full strength, so his squeeze is undeniable and the choke is securely fastened. The roof positively blows off as Brown taps out, with Perth’s own putting a stamp on a terrific performance. In an interview where he can barely hear himself think, Maddalena calls for a ranked opponent when he comes back from holiday, and he hopes to fight again in front of a home crowd soon.

The Official Result
Jack Della Maddalena def. Randy Brown R1 2:13 via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Angelo picks Jack Della Maddalena, citing his high-volume jab and takedown defense. He notes that Randy Brown is a solid striker with reach and BJJ, but Jack's constant jab will disrupt Brown's rhythm. He warns that if Jack becomes a headhunter, Brown could find success, but he expects Jack to fight smart and win a decision.

"Jack's gonna be the pick he's probably a safe pick I just hope he fights his fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Big Brady is high on Della Maddalena, citing his power, hand speed, and forward pressure. He acknowledges Brown's length and durability concerns but thinks Della Maddalena will close the distance and knock him out. He predicts a first-round knockout.

first round knockout
"I think he does knock him out at some point in this fight he's gonna be jacked elementalina I'll take him to win by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Cody is high on Della Maddalena, praising his volume, body work, and boxing technique. He notes Della Maddalena has finished all his UFC opponents by working the body and then landing kill shots. He thinks Randy Brown is hittable and will struggle with Della Maddalena's pressure and body attack. Despite the -300 price, he likes Della Maddalena stylistically.

"I really like Jack Della and keep in mind I bet against him on his contended series debut... I was so unbelievably impressed with what I saw"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Connor picks Della Maddalena, citing his relentless pressure and body punching as key advantages. He notes that Brown has a tendency to abandon his game plan and engage in brawls, which plays into Della Maddalena's strengths. Connor also mentions that Della Maddalena's combination punching and ability to mix targets will overwhelm Brown, who is inconsistent defensively. He acknowledges that Brown could win if he fights smart, but expects him to revert to bad habits.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Della Maddalena's combination striking and power will be too much for Brown. He mixes targets well (head and body) and has shown finishing ability with body shots. Brown's length and movement may cause early issues, but Della Maddalena will close distance and land. Brown's defensive grappling is solid but Della Maddalena's discipline and patience will allow him to find the knockout within the first 10 minutes. Expect a round two KO.

"I think Jack will close that distance without too much issue get off his strikes and eventually find that knockout and put Randy Brown out probably within the first 10 minutes of this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Paul agrees Della Maddalena is a rightful favorite, noting Brown is hittable and has been knocked down before. He mentions Brown's close fights and high strikes absorbed. However, he avoids betting -300 lines and thinks inside the distance is already minus money, so he'll pass on betting.

"I think Jack Della is a rightful favorite in this spot uh I don't really play minus 300s and these types of positions"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

The MMA Guru picks Jack Della Maddalena over Randy Brown, praising his unique boxing style and head movement. He expects a first-round TKO via body-head combinations against the cage. He notes Brown has been finished recently and is older, but admits the odds are too high and sees some value in Brown.

first round TKO; odds comment: should be -180, not -250
"I gotta go with him winning this one and finishing Randy Brown by TKO in the first round"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jack Della Maddalena

Zane also picks Della Maddalena, emphasizing his pressure and body work. He notes that Brown is prone to getting distracted and fighting his opponent's fight, which will be fatal against a relentless fighter like Della Maddalena. Zane highlights that Della Maddalena's ability to mix punches to the body and head will exploit Brown's tall frame. He also mentions that Brown's best chance is to keep the fight at range, but he likely won't maintain that discipline.

"I really think this could be a fight or randy brown styles on madalena... but in all likelihood if it's going to be a bit of the one not the other and instead randy brown forgetting what he's doing and …"
Jared Gooden - Fight History
LOSS vs Chidi Njokuani
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Royval vs. Taira · Oct 12, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chidi Njokuani 0 105 of 148 70% 162 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 9:16
Jared Gooden 0 20 of 50 40% 81 of 121 2 of 8 25% 1 0 2:29
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chidi Njokuani 0 21 of 28 75% 46 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:38
Jared Gooden 0 3 of 5 60% 23 of 28 1 of 4 25% 0 0 1:06
2 Chidi Njokuani 0 52 of 65 80% 67 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:15
Jared Gooden 0 11 of 27 40% 38 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Chidi Njokuani 0 32 of 55 58% 49 of 74 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:23
Jared Gooden 0 6 of 18 33% 20 of 36 1 of 4 25% 1 0 1:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chidi Njokuani 105 of 148 70% 49 of 81 47 of 57 9 of 10 28 of 48 56 of 65 21 of 35
Jared Gooden 20 of 50 40% 13 of 37 5 of 10 2 of 3 14 of 42 5 of 6 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chidi Njokuani 21 of 28 75% 5 of 7 16 of 21 0 of 0 3 of 6 18 of 22 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 3 of 5 60% 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Chidi Njokuani 52 of 65 80% 20 of 29 24 of 27 8 of 9 16 of 25 36 of 40 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 11 of 27 40% 7 of 20 2 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Chidi Njokuani 32 of 55 58% 24 of 45 7 of 9 1 of 1 9 of 17 2 of 3 21 of 35
Jared Gooden 6 of 18 33% 5 of 14 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 14 1 of 2 1 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 6, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Angelo picks Chidi Njokuani, but with hesitation due to Njokuani's slow starts. He notes that Njokuani should dominate if he throws with more volume, but a slow start could be dangerous against Jared Gooden's early power. Angelo expects to be biting his nails in the first round but ultimately believes Njokuani is safe.

"I'm still going cheaty... I think he is safe but I'm gonna be biting my nails for the first five minutes."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Big Brady picks Jared Gooden to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Chidi Njokuani's brutal weight cut to welterweight, his poor performance against Rhys McKee, and his history of quitting when hurt. He notes Gooden is more durable and has more heart. Although Njokuani is the better striker with more power, Brady expects Gooden to weather the early storm and finish him in the second round. He thinks Njokuani's weight cut and tendency to look for a way out will be his downfall.

Gooden by second-round knockout
"give me good in to weather the early storm and get a finish in the second round by Knockouts"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Connor also picks Njokuani but is hesitant, noting that Gooden is tough and has a good chin, but his defensive flaws make him vulnerable. He compares the matchup to Njokuani's fight with Dusko Todorovic, where Njokuani landed a fight-ending elbow. Connor thinks Njokuani's opportunistic striking will find the mark, but he's not fully confident due to Njokuani's inconsistency.

Same odds commentary.
"I think probably a decent parallel for this matchup is maybe cheetie's fight with dusko todorovich. Here's a super hittable but very aggressive opponent."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Njokuani is slicker and has a height and reach advantage. At welterweight, this is a great spot for him as long as the weight cut doesn't drain his durability. He should keep Gooden's power punching at bay with kicks up the middle and straight shots, picking him apart and winning on the scorecards.

"look for kicks up the middle and straight shots down the pipe for Njokuani to keep Gooden at distance and from there he should be able to pick him apart and win this fight on the scorecards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 8, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

The MMA Guru picks Chidi Njokuani, citing his size, range, and athleticism. He notes that Njokuani has a better chance of a sudden finish than Jared Gooden, who he questions why is still in the UFC. He acknowledges Njokuani's inconsistent record but favors his ability to land a knockout out of nowhere.

"I'm going to go with chiding n jwani getting this one done long rangy sniper athletic more athletic than Jared Gooden"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Oct 10, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Chidi Njokuani

Zane picks Njokuani but is hesitant because Njokuani is inconsistent and a pure opportunist. He notes that Gooden is hittable and aggressive, which should provide opportunities for Njokuani to land a knockout. However, Zane acknowledges that Njokuani can lose if he doesn't seize the moment or if Gooden's toughness carries him.

Njokuani opened at -196, now -196; Gooden opened at +138, now +138. Zane says the line shouldn't get wider.
"Cheaty in that fight. Yeah, I think he might just get a knockout bowl of opportunities. He will provide."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 1:11 · UFC on ESPN: Dariush vs. Tsarukyan · Dec 02, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gooden 0 37 of 57 64% 46 of 73 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Wellington Turman 0 53 of 83 63% 62 of 95 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gooden 0 27 of 44 61% 36 of 60 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:40
Wellington Turman 0 28 of 52 53% 33 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Gooden 0 10 of 13 76% 10 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Wellington Turman 0 25 of 31 80% 29 of 37 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:31
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gooden 37 of 57 64% 27 of 47 2 of 2 8 of 8 32 of 49 2 of 2 3 of 6
Wellington Turman 53 of 83 63% 33 of 59 14 of 18 6 of 6 43 of 72 1 of 1 9 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gooden 27 of 44 61% 18 of 35 2 of 2 7 of 7 23 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 6
Wellington Turman 28 of 52 53% 9 of 30 13 of 16 6 of 6 28 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jared Gooden 10 of 13 76% 9 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 9 of 12 1 of 1 0 of 0
Wellington Turman 25 of 31 80% 24 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 20 1 of 1 9 of 10
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Big Brady leans toward Jared Gooden as a dog, noting he doesn't think Wellington Turman should be such a big favorite. He favors Gooden's striking and power, and thinks Gooden's takedown defense is solid enough to stuff Turman's wrestling. He expects a close fight but picks Gooden by decision, though he's not confident enough to bet on it.

"I kind of lean the dog side there just because I don't feel like Wellington Turman should really be this big of a favorite against anybody"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Cody picks Turman, agreeing that he mixes in takedowns and makes it ugly. He thinks Turman's size at welterweight helps his grappling. He notes Turman trains with top guys and this is a good matchup. He doesn't love the price but picks him.

"terman is the pick for me I think he mixes in the takedowns I think he makes it a little bit uglier"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Lucrative James picks Wellington Turman, stating that despite Turman's inconsistent fight IQ and chin issues, he has too many advantages to lose. He notes Turman's decent striking and grappling skills, and believes he can win by decision or submission. He acknowledges Jared Gooden's power but thinks Turman's overall game will prevail.

potential submission if fight goes to the mat
"overall I think Wellington terman has too many advantages to lose the fight consistently so I'm going with Wellington terman to get the win probably by decision potentially could get a submission if the fight gets to the mat"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Turman is a BJJ black belt with improving striking, and he should be able to take Gooden down and dominate on the ground. Gooden is a power striker with a developing ground game, but he has shown weakness when taken down and has weight-cutting issues. Turman is expected to be competitive on the feet before changing levels and securing a submission victory.

submission victory predicted
"I'm going to go Wellington tman here and I think he wins this fight like I said by submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 29, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

Paul picks Turman, citing his youth, move to welterweight, and training with Glover Teixeira. He thinks Turman's grappling and takedowns will be the difference. He notes Gooden's takedown defense is poor and Turman can mix in wrestling. He doesn't love the price but thinks Turman wins more often than not.

"I think Wellington terman just mixes in Blends it in up together a little bit better and gets the win it's the minus 185 I don't like this price tag Paul I don't"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 28, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Wellington Turman

The MMA Guru picks Wellington Turman, impressed by his striking improvements under Alex Pereira's tutelage. He notes Turman arguably beat Randy Brown in his last fight and believes he can replicate that performance against Jared Gooden. He sees Turman as the more improving fighter at 27 years old and expects him to win.

"I'm going with Wellington Turman... in his last fight with Randy Brown he looked like Alex Pereira out there... I really like the improvements in his striking."
LOSS vs Carlston Harris
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Carlston Harris 0 63 of 110 57% 140 of 194 5 of 12 41% 0 0 9:38
Jared Gooden 0 51 of 84 60% 93 of 126 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Carlston Harris 0 43 of 84 51% 44 of 85 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:13
Jared Gooden 0 44 of 71 61% 53 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Carlston Harris 0 7 of 10 70% 47 of 54 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:44
Jared Gooden 0 4 of 6 66% 28 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Carlston Harris 0 13 of 16 81% 49 of 55 4 of 8 50% 0 0 4:41
Jared Gooden 0 3 of 7 42% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Carlston Harris 63 of 110 57% 52 of 99 10 of 10 1 of 1 35 of 74 11 of 15 17 of 21
Jared Gooden 51 of 84 60% 22 of 49 21 of 27 8 of 8 41 of 74 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Carlston Harris 43 of 84 51% 34 of 75 8 of 8 1 of 1 33 of 70 10 of 14 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 44 of 71 61% 20 of 42 17 of 22 7 of 7 39 of 66 5 of 5 0 of 0
2 Carlston Harris 7 of 10 70% 5 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 6 of 9
Jared Gooden 4 of 6 66% 0 of 1 3 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 3 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Carlston Harris 13 of 16 81% 13 of 16 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 11 of 12
Jared Gooden 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 5 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jared Gooden (177: Missed Weight) vs. Carlston Harris
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Harris (-300), Gooden (+250)

Round 1
The UFC is holed up in Las Vegas this weekend for another Fight Night card, but not where you’d expect. Instead of the Apex or the T-Mobile Arena, the promotion will make its debut inside of the Theater at Virgin Hotels, which seats over 4,000 – some may remember it as called “The Joint” in years past. Fans will be cheering throughout this 13-fight event, and it begins with an unplanned catchweight contest now set at 177 pounds. Harris (17-5, 2-1 UFC) expected to face a member of the Nurmagomedov clan, but on short notice, he now welcomes Gooden (22-8, 1-3 UFC) back to the promotion. The latter was unable to make the 171-pound limit, and even though he checked in a whopping six pounds heavy, the fight is still on. Referee Keith Peterson will boot out nonsense from this new venue in the first fight of the night, and there is no touch of gloves to get things started from the fighters. The two test one another’s range early with long, lunging single strikes. Gooden sits down on a hard leg kick, and Harris catches his foe with his hands low with a two-hook combo. Harris swings so hard he almost hits the deck, and Gooden does not take advantage of this and lets him clinch up instead. They separate, and Harris lets fly a head kick that careens off the shoulder. “Mocambique” dings his opponent with a few sharp strikes, as Gooden’s hands are by his waist, but Gooden seems no worse for wear and steps in with a left hand. Harris pushes out a jab and a follow-up leg kick, and Gooden replies with a heavier low kick. They jab at the same time, and Harris follows one with a left hand that backs Gooden off. Harris wings a right hand that cracks “Nite Train” behind the ear, and Gooden wobbles but does not pick his guard up. Harris’ right hook collides with a few more oddly arcing overhand rights, and Gooden walks through them and tries to counter with a huge left hook. Harris nails Gooden with a few punches, and Gooden takes them on the chin and side of the dome without budging. Harris shoots in for a takedown in the center of the cage, and when that is stuffed, he blasts Gooden in the nose with a knee. Harris stands in the pocket and unloads with a haymaker of a right, and Gooden blinks it out but does not seem overly concerned. Harris swings for the bleachers with most of his blows, and they are already beginning to slow with a minute remaining in the opening frame. Harris sticks a jab, and Gooden answers him with two back. Gooden comes over the top with a right, and it has a near tomahawk motion than a typical right hook angle. Harris nails Gooden with a standing elbow, and he unloads with a combination of heavy blows to the head that rock Gooden and drive him back to the wall. The horn sounds as the two are clinched.
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Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris

Round 2
The second round opens up with a low kick from Gooden, and Harris shoots in for a double-leg takedown. “Nite Train” stands him up although he gets pushed back to the wall, and Harris tries for trips on the inside as Gooden talks to him. Harris redoubles his effort, and he manages to scoop Gooden’s legs out and dump him on the mat. Harris moves to half guard as soon as he hits the ground, and he actively works with ground-and-pound from on top. The punches and elbows are not individually damaging, but they stay busy and stave off the watchful Peterson from a possible standup. Harris lays down flat on top of his man, and he softens up the ribs with a series of unanswered, thudding right hands. Gooden prevents any guard passing even when absorbing elbows on the face, and he start throwing punches off his back. Gooden sits up, and Harris welcomes this and snatches up a guillotine choke in a hurry. Gooden moves to his knees while in submission danger, doing enough to fight the hands and preventing the choke from cinching up. As Harris holds on, he pushes Gooden down to his back again, and he squeezes his forearm on the throat and elbows Gooden until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris

Round 3
The final round kicks off with an aggressive Gooden, who marches out of his corner and swings heavily. Harris takes a few punches before jumping on a leaning Gooden to push him down to the ground on his face. Gooden looks to defend himself from a potential choke setup, but in the process, Harris circles around to take his back and drag him to the canvas. Harris jumps over to the mount position in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke, only for a Gooden buck to break up the choke. Harris postures up while still mounting his man, and he rains down punches and elbows that bounce Gooden’s head off the mat. Gooden scoots his way to the wall, and Harris lets him off the hook and tries to take his back on the way up. Gooden shucks him off, but Harris turns around to drop down for a single-leg takedown. Gooden stands him up and knees him in the upper chest, and Harris powerfully replies by wrenching Gooden’s feet off the floor and chucking him to the mat. Gooden lands on his backside with a disappointed look on his face, but he still powers his way back up to his feet before Harris can drill him with any strikes. Gooden breaks free from a tie-up, and he throws hands recklessly in hopes of catching Harris on the way in. Harris rings his bell with a fierce jab and shoots for a double, and he succeeds in grounding “Nite Train.” Gooden looks to keep his back against the cage to possibly wall-walk, and Harris slides around the side and back to try to take it. Gooden explodes out of the inopportune position, and Harris doggedly pursues doubles or any kind of takedown he can find. On his second try, while Gooden is halfway to escaping, Harris trips his legs up and throws him to the canvas. Harris climbs into half guard and lets loose with a stream of elbows, and he lumps Gooden’s head up with strikes right to the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Harris (30-27 Harris)

The Official Result
Carlston Harris def. Jared Gooden via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Angelo picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov (Jared Gooden) as the aggressive wrestler who will lay on top of the older, slower Carlston Harris. He expects a boring but effective performance, with Nurmagomedov controlling the fight with takedowns and top pressure. He is surprised Nurmagomedov is the underdog and considers a moneyline bet at plus money.

money line bet at plus money
"I like the Margaret Madoff here I'm surprised that he's the underdog... he should be a wet blanket here just boring as [ __ ] and he's just gonna lay on top of the older slower Carlson hair so the …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Big Brady picks Ricardo Ramos (note: transcript says Ramos vs Lingo, but fight_id 1327 is Harris vs Gooden; however the transcript discusses Ramos vs Lingo, which is not on the card. This appears to be a mismatch. Based on the transcript, the fight discussed is Ramos vs Lingo, but that fight is not in the fight list. I will skip this as it doesn't match any fight_id. Actually, the transcript mentions 'Ricardo Ramos going against Austin lingo' but that fight is not in the provided card. So I will not include it.)

CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Connor picks Harris confidently, noting that Gooden is a stiff, upright striker who gets hurt early in fights and has poor head movement. Harris is a powerful, dynamic wrestler-striker who will pressure Gooden and take him down. He expects Harris to overwhelm Gooden with pace and power, likely leading to a finish.

Harris -260, Gooden +220. Connor notes the fight was made on short notice.
"I would pick Carlson Harris pretty much forever here. Gooden is the definition of a stock stiff upright striker."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

I think Gooden's discipline and jab from distance, combined with timely takedowns, will allow him to grind out a decision. Harris is dangerous early with submissions and power, but if Gooden can survive the initial onslaught and avoid the front choke, he should take over. Gooden's performance against Harris showed he can implement a smart game plan. I expect a decision win for Gooden.

Gooden by decision
"if normaga Madoff can stay safe not have a slip up like he had in the David zavada fight he should be able to grind out this fight and I think he should be able to win this one by …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris, citing his finishing ability as a key advantage. He notes that Harris has a massive finishing edge over Abubakar Nurmagomedov, who tends to win by decision. Harris has shown KO and submission finishes, while Nurmagomedov lacks finishing ability and has been submitted before. The Guru trusts Harris to get the job done, likely by finish.

"I'm trusting in carlston Harris with the finishing ability Advantage"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

Zane picks Harris, agreeing that Gooden's stiff striking and tendency to get hit will be exploited by Harris's power and wrestling. He notes that Harris is an awkward but powerful fighter who can maintain a high pace, and Gooden has historically struggled against aggressive opponents. He expects Harris to win by decision or late TKO.

"Carlson Harris is a weird fighter to prepare for, the kind of guy who seems like a mess and then in the cage his speed and power suddenly jump out at you."
LOSS vs Randy Brown
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 0 115 of 235 48% 117 of 237 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Jared Gooden 0 81 of 156 51% 87 of 162 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 28 of 60 46% 28 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Jared Gooden 0 25 of 51 49% 26 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:18
2 Randy Brown 0 37 of 88 42% 37 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 30 of 47 63% 30 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Randy Brown 0 50 of 87 57% 52 of 89 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:05
Jared Gooden 0 26 of 58 44% 31 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 115 of 235 48% 81 of 196 25 of 29 9 of 10 109 of 227 5 of 7 1 of 1
Jared Gooden 81 of 156 51% 19 of 76 27 of 36 35 of 44 78 of 151 3 of 3 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 28 of 60 46% 17 of 47 6 of 7 5 of 6 27 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 25 of 51 49% 4 of 20 7 of 12 14 of 19 25 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Randy Brown 37 of 88 42% 25 of 73 9 of 12 3 of 3 37 of 87 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 30 of 47 63% 7 of 21 9 of 11 14 of 15 30 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Randy Brown 50 of 87 57% 39 of 76 10 of 10 1 of 1 45 of 82 4 of 4 1 of 1
Jared Gooden 26 of 58 44% 8 of 35 11 of 13 7 of 10 23 of 53 3 of 3 0 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his superior skill set in all MMA aspects. He notes Brown's range, long jabs, and kicks, and his ability to avoid Gooden's power. He expects Brown to control distance and pick up the pace after a cautious first round. He has no bet on this fight.

"Randy's should be the more skilled fighter in literally every MMA aspect."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Randy Brown based on volume and technical striking. He highlights Brown's improvements, his jab, reach, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Gooden doesn't pull the trigger enough and Brown's experience against tougher competition gives him the edge. He expects Brown to use his range and eventually overwhelm Gooden with volume.

"i think i'm gonna go with randy brown on the basis of the volume"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Daniel Levi is openly biased because Jared Gooden is a close friend. He acknowledges Randy Brown's length and skills but believes Gooden has a path to victory by attacking Brown's legs early, as shown by Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad. He notes Gooden's improved boxing and discipline, and his experience against taller opponents. Levi admits the pick is biased but still sees a realistic path for Gooden to win.

low kicks early
"i'm picking jared gooden because i would never pick against them it's a biased pick it is what it is i'm honest about it"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jacob picks Randy Brown but is heavily rooting for Jared Gooden because he accidentally placed a 4-unit bet on Gooden instead of Jared Gordon last week. He thinks Brown is the more diverse fighter and should win, but he needs Gooden to win for his bet. He has a personal stake in Gooden winning.

Jared Gooden money line (4 units, accidentally placed)
"Jared Gooden, please, for the love of God, you got to win, man. You got to win. I got four units on you."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

The host picks Jared Gooden as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He highlights Gooden's leg kicks as a key weapon against Randy Brown, who has historically struggled with leg kicks (e.g., against Vicente Luque and Alex Oliveira). He notes Gooden's heavy-handed style and ability to find a knockout, predicting a first-round KO. He also suggests live betting Brown if one prefers him.

Gooden by KO +400; first round knockout
"I am going to go with goodin for the upset here at plus 400 via ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Brown's technical striking and reach advantage. He mentions Brown's submission skills and experience against top names. He notes the price is steep but believes Brown's game plan and experience in the co-main event spot make him the clear pick.

"i'm with you as well um much more a better technical striker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Brown is taller, rangier, and better than Gooden, who he criticizes for losing to part-time fighters. He notes Brown's submission win over Wale Alves and decision over Brian Barbarena as evidence.

Brown by unanimous decision
"i'm going to go over andy brown here he's taller he's rangier he's much better than jared gooden... i reckon randy brown is going to win this one by unanimous decision"
WIN vs Niklas Stolze
KO (punch) R1 1:08 · UFC on ESPN: Hall vs. Strickland · Jul 31, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Gooden 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niklas Stolze 1 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Gooden 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Niklas Stolze 1 14 of 23 60% 14 of 23 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:21
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Gooden 7 of 13 53% 4 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niklas Stolze 14 of 23 60% 11 of 17 0 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Gooden 7 of 13 53% 4 of 10 2 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Niklas Stolze 14 of 23 60% 11 of 17 0 of 3 3 of 3 13 of 21 0 of 0 1 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 27, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Big Brady picks Jared Gooden, despite being burned by him before. He thinks Gooden is the better striker with higher volume and can mix in takedowns. He notes Stolze has poor takedown defense but is dangerous off his back. Brady predicts a decision win for Gooden, but is not confident.

"i'll go manila says here am i going to bed i'm absolutely not but i do think he can win the striking exchanges higher volume i think he's a better striker as well"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Niklas Stolze

Cody leans towards Niklas Stolze, citing his durability (never finished) and likely better cardio since he had a full camp. He notes that Gooden is on short notice and has a history of missing weight and gassing. Cody expects Stolze to out-grapple Gooden and win a close decision, but he does not like the -200 price and thinks the fight likely goes the distance. He mentions the over on fight goes to decision as a potential play.

Cody mentions the fight goes to decision prop at -170, and suggests the over is likely.
"i can see him getting out grappled by a lot of the guys in the division i just don't necessarily know that jared gooden's one of them and if jericho doesn't have 15 minutes of cardio to push a pace …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Jul 31, 2021 (fight day)
Jared Gooden

Levi is biased as Gooden is a friend, but he provides reasoning. He praises Gooden's lifestyle change and ability to make weight on short notice. He believes this is a stand-up fight where Gooden can succeed, unlike his previous fight against Nurmagomedov. Levi disagrees with the line (Stolze -200), thinking the fight is closer to even with a slight lean to Gooden. He expects Gooden to go for the knockout and get his first UFC win.

Disagrees with the line; thinks it should be closer to even.
"I just disagree with the line uh oddsmakers open at minus 130 good and they slightly edge in look I think it's an even fight with a slight lean on good"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 30, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Niklas Stolze

Stolze is the better all-around fighter with superior grappling and striking. Gooden has power but comes in on short notice and has cardio issues. Stolze had a full camp and should take over as the fight goes on. The line at -195 offers little value, but Stolze by decision is likely. Gooden's only path is an early KO.

Stolze by decision
"I like Stolze I like Stolze by decision no big lean or read in this spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 28, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Paul considers Jared Gooden as a live underdog, noting his power and durability. He points out that Gooden has heart and has gone the distance before, but his cardio is a major concern, especially on short notice. Paul is not confident enough to bet Gooden but acknowledges he could spring the upset if he lands a big shot. He calls it a 'dog or pass' spot.

"i can see spamming an underdog pick just me personally i don't like spamming underdog picks i like having confidence and i truly believe deep down just run this 100 times that my guy wins 51 like i gotta have …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jul 26, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

The MMA Guru initially picks Niklas Stolze but then switches to Jared Gooden, expressing hesitation. He notes that Gooden's win over Abdurazak Hassan is his only good win, and that Stolze has been more tested. However, he ultimately goes with Gooden, citing a striking advantage and that Stolze's recent opponents were on losing streaks. He is tainted by Gooden's loss to Wale Alves via body kicks.

"i'll go with muni lazers... he has beaten some good opponents"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 260: Miocic vs. Ngannou 2 · Mar 27, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 43 of 136 31% 111 of 207 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 60 of 120 50% 100 of 164 1 of 5 20% 0 0 4:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 23 of 42 54% 23 of 42 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 17 of 62 27% 17 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 30 of 63 47% 30 of 63 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 25 48% 80 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Gooden 0 7 of 15 46% 47 of 59 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Abubakar Nurmagomedov 43 of 136 31% 30 of 110 12 of 25 1 of 1 35 of 127 3 of 3 5 of 6
Jared Gooden 60 of 120 50% 45 of 105 9 of 9 6 of 6 56 of 115 4 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 14 of 49 28% 12 of 42 2 of 7 0 of 0 13 of 48 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 23 of 42 54% 12 of 31 7 of 7 4 of 4 22 of 40 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 17 of 62 27% 9 of 47 7 of 14 1 of 1 17 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 30 of 63 47% 28 of 61 1 of 1 1 of 1 27 of 60 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 Abubakar Nurmagomedov 12 of 25 48% 9 of 21 3 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 17 2 of 2 5 of 6
Jared Gooden 7 of 15 46% 5 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 7 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by dominant decision (30-27). He believes Nurmagomedov's wrestling will be the key, as Gooden can be taken down and controlled easily. He notes that Gooden has submissions on his record but thinks Nurmagomedov will avoid playing on the feet. However, he says he probably wouldn't bet the -235 line due to Nurmagomedov's mistakes in his last fight.

Nurmagomedov by decision 30-27
"i'm gonna take nirmangamedev to be good in here ... i'm gonna say your magametto beats goodin 30 27"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Cody leans towards Gooden as a live underdog, noting that Abubakar's price is inflated by his last name. He thinks Gooden has better striking and a reach advantage, and that Abubakar's chin is questionable. He is considering a play on Gooden but wants to see weigh-ins first.

Gooden by submission +1200 (considered)
"jared gooden at that price plus 205. and it keeps growing that's that's probably what we're doing"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Daniel Levi picks Jared Gooden to get his first UFC win. He acknowledges Gooden's struggles with wrestlers but believes he has worked tirelessly to patch that hole in his game at ATT. Levi criticizes Abubakar as a lesser version of the Dagestani style with no stand-up and a questionable chin. He thinks Gooden will get back to his feet and knock Abubakar out.

knockout
"i think that saturday night he's finally going to get over that wrestler hump finally you know get back up to his feet and knock this guy out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The host hesitantly picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov to win by decision. He notes that Abubakar has a 'Nurmagomedov tax' on his line and is not impressed with his grappling or cardio. He thinks Abubakar will struggle to get Gooden down and keep him there, but Gooden's cardio and durability are also question marks. He mentions Gooden's KO power at +650 as a potential sprinkle, but ultimately expects Abubakar to grind out a decision if he can get takedowns.

Jared Gooden KO +650 (sprinkle); under 2.5 (+155) is a possibility
"I'll go with abubakar to win by decision... not the most confident"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 24, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

Paul leans towards Abubakar but thinks the price is way off. He notes that Abubakar has good wrestling and cardio, and that Gooden is hittable. However, he is not confident because Abubakar's chin is suspect and he has been knocked out before. He calls it a dogger pass situation.

"i think i'm gonna end up taking nurmagomedov but the price is way off at 240"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Abubakar Nurmagomedov

The Guru picks Abubakar Nurmagomedov by unanimous decision, citing his takedown advantage and better competition. He criticizes Jared Gooden's takedown defense and lack of impressive wins. He expects a sloppy fight with Nurmagomedov dictating the pace with wrestling, taking Gooden down whenever it gets risky on the feet. He notes Nurmagomedov is the worst of the Nurmagomedovs but still good enough to win.

"i'm going to go with abba kabanermedov i think he's going to have a real advantage here in the takedowns"
LOSS vs Alan Jouban
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alan Jouban 0 168 of 331 50% 169 of 332 0 of 1 0% 2 1 0:10
Jared Gooden 0 100 of 210 47% 101 of 211 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alan Jouban 0 41 of 96 42% 41 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gooden 0 33 of 71 46% 33 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alan Jouban 0 71 of 126 56% 72 of 127 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Gooden 0 35 of 72 48% 35 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:14
3 Alan Jouban 0 56 of 109 51% 56 of 109 0 of 1 0% 2 1 0:04
Jared Gooden 0 32 of 67 47% 33 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:52
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alan Jouban 168 of 331 50% 116 of 262 39 of 55 13 of 14 150 of 305 18 of 26 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 100 of 210 47% 79 of 182 21 of 27 0 of 1 90 of 195 10 of 14 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alan Jouban 41 of 96 42% 29 of 80 11 of 15 1 of 1 35 of 87 6 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 33 of 71 46% 24 of 60 9 of 11 0 of 0 28 of 65 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alan Jouban 71 of 126 56% 46 of 94 17 of 24 8 of 8 65 of 117 6 of 9 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 35 of 72 48% 27 of 61 8 of 11 0 of 0 32 of 68 3 of 4 0 of 0
3 Alan Jouban 56 of 109 51% 41 of 88 11 of 16 4 of 5 50 of 101 6 of 8 0 of 0
Jared Gooden 32 of 67 47% 28 of 61 4 of 5 0 of 1 30 of 62 2 of 4 0 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Big Brady picks Jared Gooden to win by first-round knockout. He notes Jouban is 38 and has chin issues, while Gooden is younger and packs power. He thinks the small cage helps Gooden close distance, but if Gooden doesn't finish early, he may slow down.

first round knockout
"i'm going to take good in my first round knock i'm going to take the dog here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Daniel picks his friend Jared Gooden, citing his forward pressure, volume striking, and youth advantage. He believes Jouban is aging and his chin is diminishing, and that Gooden's improved mindset and training will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses criticism of Gooden's past losses as due to weight class issues.

first round knockout, 50k bonus
"i think jared comes out here i think he knocks out alan juban in the first round i think he gets a 50k bonus"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Alan Jouban

The host picks Alan Jouban but is not confident due to his age (38) and layoff. He thinks Jouban's durability is underrated and he has more ways to win, but is scared of the layoff and the hungry newcomer. He recommends staying away from betting this fight.

"my official pick is going to be Alan Joan but by no means am I confident in it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

The MMA Guru picks Jared Gooden to win by KO in the first round. He cites Jouban's long layoff (since April 2019), age (38), and history of being KO'd. Gooden is younger, more active, and has power. He expects Gooden to crack Jouban early.

ko in the first round
"i think he's going to get ko stiff in the first round by jared gooden"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his superior skill set in all MMA aspects. He notes Brown's range, long jabs, and kicks, and his ability to avoid Gooden's power. He expects Brown to control distance and pick up the pace after a cautious first round. He has no bet on this fight.

"Randy's should be the more skilled fighter in literally every MMA aspect."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Cody picks Randy Brown based on volume and technical striking. He highlights Brown's improvements, his jab, reach, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Gooden doesn't pull the trigger enough and Brown's experience against tougher competition gives him the edge. He expects Brown to use his range and eventually overwhelm Gooden with volume.

"i think i'm gonna go with randy brown on the basis of the volume"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

Daniel Levi is openly biased because Jared Gooden is a close friend. He acknowledges Randy Brown's length and skills but believes Gooden has a path to victory by attacking Brown's legs early, as shown by Vicente Luque and Belal Muhammad. He notes Gooden's improved boxing and discipline, and his experience against taller opponents. Levi admits the pick is biased but still sees a realistic path for Gooden to win.

low kicks early
"i'm picking jared gooden because i would never pick against them it's a biased pick it is what it is i'm honest about it"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Jacob picks Randy Brown but is heavily rooting for Jared Gooden because he accidentally placed a 4-unit bet on Gooden instead of Jared Gordon last week. He thinks Brown is the more diverse fighter and should win, but he needs Gooden to win for his bet. He has a personal stake in Gooden winning.

Jared Gooden money line (4 units, accidentally placed)
"Jared Gooden, please, for the love of God, you got to win, man. You got to win. I got four units on you."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Jared Gooden

The host picks Jared Gooden as an underdog, believing the line is too wide. He highlights Gooden's leg kicks as a key weapon against Randy Brown, who has historically struggled with leg kicks (e.g., against Vicente Luque and Alex Oliveira). He notes Gooden's heavy-handed style and ability to find a knockout, predicting a first-round KO. He also suggests live betting Brown if one prefers him.

Gooden by KO +400; first round knockout
"I am going to go with goodin for the upset here at plus 400 via ko"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Paul agrees with Cody, citing Brown's technical striking and reach advantage. He mentions Brown's submission skills and experience against top names. He notes the price is steep but believes Brown's game plan and experience in the co-main event spot make him the clear pick.

"i'm with you as well um much more a better technical striker"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown to win by unanimous decision (29-28). He believes Brown is taller, rangier, and better than Gooden, who he criticizes for losing to part-time fighters. He notes Brown's submission win over Wale Alves and decision over Brian Barbarena as evidence.

Brown by unanimous decision
"i'm going to go over andy brown here he's taller he's rangier he's much better than jared gooden... i reckon randy brown is going to win this one by unanimous decision"