UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021 · Heavyweight · Completed
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Age N/A
Height N/A
Reach N/A
Weight N/A
Stance N/A
Age 34
Height 6' 4"
Reach 80.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Alexandr Romanov

No career stats available

Career Averages - Jared Vanderaa
4.96 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.67 SApM
45.0% Str. Def.
0.18 TD Avg
50.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
0.0 Sub. Avg
Alexandr Romanov
Moneyline
DraftKings -510
KO/TKO
FanDuel +175
Submission
BetWay +160
Decision
FanDuel +500
Jared Vanderaa
Moneyline
FanDuel +440
KO/TKO
FanDuel +950
Submission
FanDuel +3400
Decision
BetRivers +1100
Alexandr Romanov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 45 of 92 48% 87 of 135 6 of 10 60% 1 0 7:33
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 31 of 91 34% 48 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 2 of 5 40% 32 of 36 4 of 5 80% 1 0 4:47
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 1 of 1 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 28 60% 26 of 37 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:46
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 10 of 34 29% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 26 of 59 44% 29 of 62 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Rodrigo Nascimento 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 45 of 92 48% 37 of 82 3 of 5 5 of 5 39 of 79 4 of 8 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 31 of 91 34% 19 of 77 7 of 9 5 of 5 30 of 90 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 2 of 5 40% 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 5
Rodrigo Nascimento 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 28 60% 14 of 23 2 of 4 1 of 1 15 of 24 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 10 of 34 29% 7 of 30 3 of 4 0 of 0 9 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 26 of 59 44% 21 of 54 1 of 1 4 of 4 24 of 55 2 of 4 0 of 0
Rodrigo Nascimento 20 of 56 35% 12 of 47 3 of 4 5 of 5 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.

bet on Romanov at +115
"I did bet on him at plus 115 I just saw the underdog money I believe in them I am a simp for wrestlers just a FYI so you know love it hate it tail it fade it"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.

submission in round 2
"I got to go naso here just based out the fact that he is a BJJ black belt... I'll take naso second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.

"I think Romanov can just strictly win a striking fight and I think he can mix in a few takedowns along the way."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.

"I'm GNA pick uh Nasim Mena"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rodrigo Nascimento

Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.

finish late
"I believe Nascimento will be able to stay out of too much danger allowing him to pull away in the second and third rounds and probably getting a finish late."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.

"I'll side with Romanov and the fact that he should be able to dictate range of this fight if he wants."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.

TKO early, maybe first round finish, good odds
"I'm going to go with Alexander Romanov here to get it done over Rodrigo and asento maybe by TKO early or maybe a finish in the first round might be some good odds here"
LOSS vs Jailton Almeida
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 2:27 · UFC 302: Makhachev vs. Poirier · Jun 01, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jailton Almeida 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:07
Alexandr Romanov 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jailton Almeida 1 of 2 50% 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked May 26, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.

"I think jolton NOA is that guy I think he ragd dolls Romanov"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked May 31, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.

fight doesn't go to decision (-325), Jailton Almeida wins inside the distance
"I think it's a great bounce back spot here for Gilton but it's hard to completely trust a guy"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.

"Romanov's mad suspect... he's not trending upwards... Almeida can take down anybody... I got more faith in that than Romanov."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.

"I am going with jelton as well um has the advantage wherever this goes"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked May 28, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.

"I'm gonna go Romanov on a limb"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked May 30, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.

"I can't believe Jon's negative 250 in this fight he should beg negative 3,000"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.

inside the distance
"I do like Almeida inside the distance."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 29, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.

Romanov by decision
"This is a classic dogger pass heavyweight type of situation... Romanov's had a very controversial run but Almeida doesn't have a plan B."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 27, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jailton Almeida

The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.

"I'm going to side with Jon ala tossing Miss fat [__] round like a big slab of [__] pork in the [__] cage"
WIN vs Blagoy Ivanov
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Strickland vs. Magomedov · Jul 01, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 85 of 154 55% 104 of 180 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:53
Blagoy Ivanov 0 44 of 108 40% 44 of 108 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 17 of 31 54% 17 of 31 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Blagoy Ivanov 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 22 of 41 53% 38 of 64 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:43
Blagoy Ivanov 0 9 of 28 32% 9 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 46 of 82 56% 49 of 85 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:03
Blagoy Ivanov 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 85 of 154 55% 52 of 121 11 of 11 22 of 22 74 of 137 4 of 4 7 of 13
Blagoy Ivanov 44 of 108 40% 38 of 102 5 of 5 1 of 1 44 of 108 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 17 of 31 54% 5 of 19 5 of 5 7 of 7 16 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Blagoy Ivanov 13 of 29 44% 11 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 22 of 41 53% 12 of 31 2 of 2 8 of 8 18 of 37 1 of 1 3 of 3
Blagoy Ivanov 9 of 28 32% 7 of 26 2 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 46 of 82 56% 35 of 71 4 of 4 7 of 7 40 of 70 2 of 2 4 of 10
Blagoy Ivanov 22 of 51 43% 20 of 49 2 of 2 0 of 0 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 25, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov but with hesitation, contingent on Romanov's weight cut. He notes Romanov's recent poor performances and lack of cardio, while Ivanov has an iron chin and solid takedown defense. He plans to wait for weigh-ins: if Romanov looks in shape, he'll switch to Romanov; if not, he'll bet Ivanov. He mentions Ivanov at +125.

waiting for weigh-ins; potential bet on Ivanov if Romanov looks out of shape
"right now the pick is going to be Ivanov I the pig is going to be blue Ivanov because Alexander romanov's last two fights he had one round of cardio"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 26, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by third-round finish, but is very hesitant. He notes Romanov has cardio issues and looked terrible at weigh-ins for his last fight, gassing after one minute. Ivanov is extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has gone to decision in all seven UFC fights. Brady says he needs to see Romanov's weigh-ins to have a stronger opinion, but if Ivanov survives the first round, he should take over and possibly finish late.

third round finish
"I'll say he takes over I'll say third round finish four but goal even off"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is torn on Romanov. He notes Romanov's potential and wrestling, but his poor cardio and questionable heart after the Volkov loss. He thinks if Romanov comes in shape, he can take Ivanov down and win early rounds. However, Ivanov is extremely durable and has never been finished. Cody suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considering live betting.

Live bet Romanov after first round if he looks good
"I am going to pick Romanov but the best way to attack this thing is live"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 29, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Daniel picks Ivanov pre-weigh-ins due to Romanov's inconsistency and weight issues. He notes Romanov's drastic weight fluctuation (239 to 264 lbs) and his tendency to quit after failed takedowns. Ivanov is durable, has a 70% takedown defense, and has been competitive in all his losses. However, Daniel reserves the right to change his pick if Romanov weighs in lean (239 lbs). He calls it a 'wait for weigh-ins' situation.

"pre weigh-ins I'ma go blagoy because at least I know like is going to give his best"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 28, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Blagoy Ivanov

Paul picks Ivanov, citing his durability and proven ability to go 15 minutes. He notes Romanov has never shown he can fight past the second round without gassing. Ivanov has gone the distance with top heavyweights and has good grappling. Paul thinks Romanov's cardio and mental toughness are major question marks, and Ivanov will outlast him.

Ivanov round 3 at 12-1
"I'm gonna take every single time the guy has proven time and time again against Elite level competition that he can fight 15 minutes we haven't seen that from Romanov so yeah it's black boy black boy for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jun 27, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Alexander Romanov but expresses hesitation due to Romanov's terrible performance against Alexander Volkov, where he gave up after a stuffed takedown. However, he believes Romanov can out-grapple Blagoy Ivanov, who is fat and unathletic, using his signature forearm choke. He uses MMA algebra: Romanov outgrappled Tybura, who outgrappled Ivanov. He notes Ivanov is not adding new wrinkles and is aging.

forearm choke submission
"I'm gonna go with Alexander Romanov here over blogore Ivanov I I have to pick Romanov to win"
TKO (punches) R1 2:16 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexander Volkov 0 12 of 15 80% 27 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:03
Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexander Volkov 12 of 15 80% 8 of 11 4 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 7 3 of 3 5 of 5
Alexandr Romanov 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Alexander Romanov vs. Alexander Volkov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)

Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.

The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.

may bet on Romanov moneyline
"the pick is Romanov and I'm hoping we see some improved cardio out of him... I may take the shot shoot my shot and put some money on Romanov there"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.

win by submission in round 1
"I'm gonna say Romanoff first round sub here should be a very very fun fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.

suggests live betting after first round
"I will pick him uh right now ever so slightly minus 150 is not the worst price tag going but again Kion the after the first round if he gets if volkov gets out of the first round you see …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I think I got to pick Volkov here. ... I think I might feel like it's a terrible mistake having by the time this is over, he's had weird points lately where he's looked incredibly flat. ... But I think …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.

Romanov by submission round 1, fight doesn't go to decision
"I'm gonna lean with the former though I think romanov's a high level well strong takedowns will definitely come to fruition early"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alexander Volkov

Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.

suggests live betting after first round; mentions prize picks line of 2.5 takedowns for Romanov
"I'm gonna go with the underdog and volkov here I think it's probably a better live betting opportunity make sure you get through the first five minutes"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.

by submission (forearm choke)
"I'm actually gonna call an Alexander Romanov forearm choke finish over Alexander volkov"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.

Odds mentioned: Volkov opened -150, now +130; Romanov opened +130, now -157.
"I mean, I think I'm still going to side with Romanov just for the three round thing. Uh, if it was a five rounder, I would absolutely pick Volkov because I have zero reason to think Romanov can make it …"
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision (majority) (29–28, 29–28, 28–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 278: Usman vs. Edwards 2 · Aug 20, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 47 of 98 47% 82 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Alexandr Romanov 0 40 of 88 45% 95 of 160 2 of 6 33% 0 1 5:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 0 of 3 0% 1 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexandr Romanov 0 14 of 18 77% 64 of 81 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:27
2 Marcin Tybura 0 17 of 36 47% 50 of 71 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:48
Alexandr Romanov 0 11 of 25 44% 16 of 34 0 of 3 0% 0 1 0:35
3 Marcin Tybura 0 30 of 59 50% 31 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alexandr Romanov 0 15 of 45 33% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 47 of 98 47% 30 of 74 10 of 17 7 of 7 43 of 92 2 of 4 2 of 2
Alexandr Romanov 40 of 88 45% 24 of 65 7 of 12 9 of 11 21 of 65 9 of 12 10 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 0 of 3 0% 0 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 1 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 14 of 18 77% 8 of 10 0 of 1 6 of 7 0 of 1 6 of 8 8 of 9
2 Marcin Tybura 17 of 36 47% 10 of 28 4 of 5 3 of 3 14 of 33 1 of 1 2 of 2
Alexandr Romanov 11 of 25 44% 9 of 22 2 of 3 0 of 0 8 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
3 Marcin Tybura 30 of 59 50% 20 of 43 6 of 12 4 of 4 29 of 57 1 of 2 0 of 0
Alexandr Romanov 15 of 45 33% 7 of 33 5 of 8 3 of 4 13 of 42 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.

Placed moneyline bets on Romanov.
"i am still all in on romanov i think he's too big too fast and too athletic for the lumbering taebora"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Aug 15, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.

Romanov by decision
"i'll take uh alexander romanov i think his cardio does hold up and i do think he wins the decision but i think ty burr is going to have some success late if romanov does slow down"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.

"i still think the the big the big roman era sorry the big moldovan fighter gets the job done and once the night's done"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.

Says he is not in a rush to play the line because there's no value, but he thinks Romanov wins at least two rounds if not a finish. Mentions that Tybura has been taken down before (by Derrick Lewis, etc.).
"I'm going to remind off to grind this one up and I think taboro will be back for sure"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Aug 18, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.

Mentions Romanov inside the distance as likely, but no bet placed.
"I just can't get to the betting window to bet that marching taiboro side i really can't do it."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 17, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.

over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks
"romanov over two and a half takedowns on prize picks before we get out of there um i mean that's a good lie romanov three he had three against sherman and finished them in the first round five against vander"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 20, 2022 (fight day)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.

TKO in round 1
"alexander romanov gets this one done by first round tko"
WIN vs Chase Sherman
Submission (americana) R1 2:11 · UFC on ESPN: Font vs. Vera · Apr 30, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 8 of 14 57% 11 of 17 3 of 3 100% 1 0 1:58
Chase Sherman 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 8 of 14 57% 8 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 8 of 14
Chase Sherman 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Apr 24, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.

parlay piece; was -2500 favorite initially
"alexander romanov is absolutely 100 gonna be the win here and if you can get him at odds that are not minus 2500 throw him in a parlay"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lock picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.

first round finish, submission or TKO
"i would be shocked if this left the first round i think romanov cruises here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.

Romanov inside the distance, Romanov first round (mentioned as -450 on his parlay)
"alexander romanov first round"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.

"i think romano's gonna dominate him and destroy him so yeah i get people are taken aback ... the odds suck so just sit back"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Apr 28, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.

Romanov inside the distance -650, Romanov round 1 -180
"romanov romanov easy money"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lock picked Apr 27, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.

Romanov inside the distance (mentioned as -550 or -700), Romanov TKO (personal pick)
"romanov should smash a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.

Romanov by first-round TKO (ground and pound)
"i do believe that alexander romanov is gonna go out there as i said before and get a first round submission on chase sherman... i think i'm actually going to lean more in the favor of a ground and pound …"
TKO (punches) R2 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 56 of 78 71% 78 of 103 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:31
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 23 56% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:05
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 47 of 58 81% 68 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 56 of 78 71% 48 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 23 56% 4 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 21 61% 4 of 10 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 47 of 58 81% 42 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"
WIN vs Juan Espino
Technical Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 1:05 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 32 of 53 60% 53 of 77 2 of 4 50% 0 0 5:41
Juan Espino 0 12 of 22 54% 44 of 56 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 5 of 9 55% 14 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:18
Juan Espino 0 4 of 6 66% 20 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:28
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 27 of 44 61% 38 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:20
Juan Espino 0 6 of 13 46% 21 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:45
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 0 of 0 --- 1 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Juan Espino 0 2 of 3 66% 3 of 4 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:42
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 32 of 53 60% 23 of 44 4 of 4 5 of 5 8 of 20 6 of 6 18 of 27
Juan Espino 12 of 22 54% 8 of 17 2 of 2 2 of 3 7 of 17 4 of 4 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 5 of 9 55% 0 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 4 1 of 5 4 of 4 0 of 0
Juan Espino 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 1
2 Alexandr Romanov 27 of 44 61% 23 of 40 3 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 15 2 of 2 18 of 27
Juan Espino 6 of 13 46% 5 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 11 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Alexandr Romanov 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
Juan Espino 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Juan Espino

Big Brady picks Juan Espino to win by submission, but with very low confidence. He sees the fight as a 50/50 matchup and sides with the dog due to hype driving Romanov's line. He notes that both fighters are grapplers and that Romanov is unlikely to submit Espino, a legit black belt. He questions Romanov's cardio and believes Espino may have the edge if the fight goes past the first round. He is passing on betting due to the uncertainty but picks Espino to weather the storm and possibly get a late submission.

Considered over but passed
"i'm gonna take espino to win by submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody is a Romanov fan and thinks he has better cardio, boxing, and youth (10 years younger). He notes Romanov's cardio looks good in deeper fights, while Espino has only fought 3 minutes in the last 3 years. He believes Romanov can stuff takedowns and win by pressure. He acknowledges Espino's BJJ but thinks Romanov's wrestling and gas tank will be the difference.

"i'm a romanov guy so i'm going to bank on romanov again"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov, stating that he is a future top-15 heavyweight and is being undervalued. He criticizes Juan Espino's competition on The Ultimate Fighter, calling it weak. Levi believes Romanov is more well-rounded and will win the wrestling and clinch battles, possibly finishing Espino. He also notes that Espino is 40 years old and Romanov has a higher ceiling.

finish
"i'm going with ramana to to finish juan espino"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Manpreet favors Romanov, citing his youth, cardio, and wrestling pressure. He notes that Espino is 40 years old and has fought weak competition, while Romanov has shown he can grind opponents down over three rounds. He believes Romanov's explosiveness and strength will overwhelm Espino, likely leading to a TKO in the second round.

Romanov by TKO +250; Romanov in round 2 +525; over 1.5 rounds -125
"i got to go with romanov and i'm going to be going with the tko probably round two"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Juan Espino

Paul thinks Espino is a legitimate BJJ black belt with good wrestling and a complete game. He notes that Romanov has a hole in his leg kick defense but Espino doesn't throw leg kicks. He is leaning towards Espino but not confident, calling it a dog or pass fight. He mentions that Espino's age (40) and lack of recent octagon time are concerns.

"i think it's espino or pass"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound, but calls it risky. He notes Romanov is younger, undefeated, and has more localized weight for grappling. He expects Romanov to stuff takedowns and use kicks to the body and legs, then take over in the second round after Espino has an adrenaline dump. He does not see Romanov submitting Espino.

second round TKO via ground and pound
"i'm going to go with alexander romanov here but it's risky"
Jared Vanderaa - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 73 of 158 46% 73 of 158 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 56 of 138 40% 59 of 143 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 22 of 39 56% 22 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 36 36% 13 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 25 of 53 47% 25 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 21 of 51 41% 24 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 0 26 of 66 39% 26 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 22 of 51 43% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Waldo Cortes Acosta 73 of 158 46% 41 of 117 26 of 32 6 of 9 73 of 157 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 56 of 138 40% 12 of 92 5 of 5 39 of 41 52 of 128 4 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Waldo Cortes Acosta 22 of 39 56% 12 of 26 9 of 12 1 of 1 22 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 36 36% 1 of 24 0 of 0 12 of 12 13 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Waldo Cortes Acosta 25 of 53 47% 9 of 33 12 of 15 4 of 5 25 of 52 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 21 of 51 41% 4 of 33 4 of 4 13 of 14 17 of 41 4 of 10 0 of 0
3 Waldo Cortes Acosta 26 of 66 39% 20 of 58 5 of 5 1 of 3 26 of 66 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 22 of 51 43% 7 of 35 1 of 1 14 of 15 22 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Waldo Cortes-Acosta vs. Jared Vanderaa

Round 1
The heaviest match on the card also serves as its “featured fight,” as recent Contender Series pickup Cortes-Acosta (7-0, 0-0 UFC) looks to keep his spotless record intact against the struggling Californian known as “The Mountain” Vanderaa (12-9, 1-5 UFC). The smash-em-up derby that could end with the swing of one mighty fist will be overseen by referee Mark Smith, who is fully prepared should he need to stop the fight in a flash. The two men totaling 519.5 mighty pounds do not touch gloves to greet one another, and instead get warned by Smith for outstretched fingers. Cortes-Acosta wades forward with a slapping low kick, and he chases Vanderaa around the cage while looking for range strikes. There is a great deal of feinting and faking, until Cortes-Acosta loads up and rips a right hand to the body. Throwing a punch that is more of a fastball than a traditional strike, Cortes-Acosta again targets the ribcage. The single strikes continue from Cortes-Acosta as practically the only offense thus far two minutes in. Cortes-Acosta lands two punches over the top, and he lines up a few more punches to knock Vanderaa back. Vanderaa attempts to respond, and Cortes-Acosta is faster and more accurate as he smacks Vanderaa with his fists. Cortes-Acosta prepares his right hand, chambering it to release in search of a knockout, and Vanderaa settles down with a few jabs. The Cortes-Acosta right hand finds its target and reddens up the forehead, and he mixes in a front kick to the body. Vanderaa slowly, methodically kicks the calf a few times, and Cortes-Acosta start showing a limp and changes stances briefly. The movement from Cortes-Acosta is slightly hampered, but he still gives chase to “The Mountain.” Vanderaa swipes out with a huge low kick, and it lands hard enough to force an immediate stance change. When Cortes-Acosta swaps, Vanderaa kicks the other leg, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta

Round 2
The second frame opens with a busy Cortes-Acosta rushing forward, and Vanderaa backs off and kicks the calf on the inside and out. The kicks keep on coming from “The Mountain,” as Cortes-Acosta changes stances and walks into a kick on the other side. Vanderaa secures a hard low kick, and this prompts Cortes-Acosta into immediate action. Possibly in big trouble from the kicks, Cortes-Acosta blitzes and swings hammers. Vanderaa rolls with some of them and eats others flush, and he survives and escapes. Two calf kicks from Vanderaa draw a limp, and Cortes-Acosta lets out a roar and plods forward to swing wildly. The kicks are hurting Cortes-Acosta, and he is showing it while the power of his overhand right is not nearly as severe as before. Vanderaa slaps another low kick after sticking out a jab, and Cortes-Acosta checks a subsequent kick and yells out triumphantly. Vanderaa rips the body with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta races in with a few haymakers. Vanderaa ties him up and unloads with a short salvo, and Cortes-Acosta dips and dodges before escaping. Cortes-Acosta sits down on a low kick to get one back, and the crowd roars its approval. Vanderaa swipes out with a left hook, and he gets off a leg kick as he backs out. Cortes-Acosta parries a few jabs and lands one to the midsection, and is subsequently warned for pointing his fingers out at his opponent. They both trade single punches, and Vanderaa kicks with both legs to the calf and body. After a brief clinch, they throw punches at the last second, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vanderaa

Round 3
The heavyweights take the stage for the final round, and they begin tentatively as Cortes-Acosta reaches out and gets popped with a quick uppercut. The jabs come from the two fighters at about the 30-second mark, and Cortes-Acosta throws a kick up high. Vanderaa times this with a leg kick so he does damage on the plant leg, and he kicks on the other side of that same leg to follow. Cortes-Acosta connects with a clean right hand, and a left, but neither frazzle Vanderaa or slow him from low kicks. Vanderaa keeps active with low kicks, and one spins Cortes-Acosta all the way around. Cortes-Acosta headhunts while Vanderaa kicks, and this pattern does not change one iota. Vanderaa walks into an overhand right, and he grits his teeth and rides out the rest of a combination, as his nose begins to bleed. Vanderaa rushes forward but pulls back before throwing anything, and when he finally engages, Cortes-Acosta is there to greet him with an overhand right. Vanderaa attempts to respond, but Cortes-Acosta rolls through it and flashes out a few jabs. Cortes-Acosta starts showboating, dancing around and doing moves while showing off. Vanderaa answers this with a heavy leg kick, and Cortes-Acosta does not pay it any mind and throws a haymaker. Vanderaa starts dancing, and a kick from him forces Cortes-Acosta to cough out his mouthpiece. Cortes-Acosta replaces it and gets his lead leg chopped down, and the final 30 seconds lead to a sloppy but energetic slugfest. When the horn sounds, they both hug it out after a strange fight that made it the distance.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Cortes-Acosta)

The Official Result
Waldo Cortes-Acosta def. Jared Vanderaa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Big Brady picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by second-round knockout. He criticizes Vanderaa's poor fight IQ and lack of takedown attempts, noting that Vanderaa has a clear path to victory via wrestling but fails to execute. He highlights Acosta's power and volume, and believes Vanderaa's terrible striking defense will lead to a knockout.

Acosta wins by second-round knockout
"I like Costa to win I'll say by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Cody picks Waldo but is not betting him due to the -200 price and Waldo's greenness. He highlights Waldo's boxing background, solid takedown defense, and development at 31 years old. He criticizes Jared Vanderaa's low fight IQ, citing his poor decision to wrestle Alexey Oleynik and his lack of takedown attempts against Chase Sherman. Cody prefers the over 1.5 rounds prop as a betting angle.

Over 1.5 rounds at +105 (added at -130)
"I'm going to pick uh Waldo in this spot but no I'm not betting this guy he seems super super green that minus 200 it's it's kind of risky Biz"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Daniel Levi picks Acosta, but is not impressed enough to lay the -195 price. He views Vanderaa as a fighter who doesn't belong in the UFC (1-5 record) and likes to fade him. He acknowledges Acosta's boxing background and power but notes he is still green. He passes on betting but picks Acosta to win.

"Pure pick is Acosta I just didn't like the price tag on it so it's a pass from a betting perspective."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Jacob picks Waldo but is not confident due to heavyweight volatility. He thinks Waldo will chase a first-round finish, but if Vanderaa survives, he could grind out a decision. Jacob suggests a Waldo first-round play but advises staying away.

Waldo first round play
"my pick is Waldo I feel semi-confident about it"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Acosta is a complete fighter who can keep up with Vanderaa's pace and push him against the cage. Vanderaa is on a four-fight losing streak and struggles when pressured. However, paying -195 on a Contender Series heavyweight is risky. The over 1.5 rounds prop is a better bet as both fighters tend to clinch and grapple, eating clock.

Over 1.5 rounds (-120 to -135)
"the over one and a half will likely be getting my action this weekend"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

Paul also picks Waldo, noting his boxing base, LFA title win, and training in Arizona. He acknowledges Vanderaa could win if he implements a high-volume, forward-pressure game plan as he did against Justin Tafa, but doubts Vanderaa's consistency and fight IQ. Paul mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a potential play but is not fully committed.

Over 1.5 rounds (mentioned as a potential play)
"yeah I gotta go Waldo as well greasy heavyweight fight so do you want a ton of exposure on it no but uh yeah I don't actually don't mind this guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Waldo Cortes Acosta

The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Jared Vanderaa, calling it a no-brainer. He believes Acosta is too dangerous early for Vanderaa, who makes poor decisions and is coming off a KO loss on short turnaround. He notes Acosta's power and regional win over Thomas Peterson, and predicts Acosta will catch Vanderaa swinging wildly and win by first-round KO.

"no-brainer here sure there's a chance at an upset but I am gonna have to go with Waldo Cortez Acosta"
LOSS vs Chase Sherman
TKO (punches) R3 3:10 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Chase Sherman 0 109 of 266 40% 109 of 267 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 137 of 235 58% 137 of 235 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Chase Sherman 0 29 of 92 31% 29 of 92 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 46 of 70 65% 46 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Chase Sherman 0 44 of 102 43% 44 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Chase Sherman 0 36 of 72 50% 36 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 1 51 of 84 60% 51 of 84 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Chase Sherman 109 of 266 40% 76 of 224 18 of 25 15 of 17 108 of 265 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 137 of 235 58% 86 of 175 32 of 39 19 of 21 134 of 231 3 of 3 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Chase Sherman 29 of 92 31% 15 of 75 6 of 9 8 of 8 29 of 92 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 46 of 70 65% 21 of 43 17 of 19 8 of 8 46 of 70 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Chase Sherman 44 of 102 43% 34 of 87 6 of 9 4 of 6 44 of 102 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 40 of 81 49% 26 of 62 7 of 12 7 of 7 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Chase Sherman 36 of 72 50% 27 of 62 6 of 7 3 of 3 35 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 51 of 84 60% 39 of 70 8 of 8 4 of 6 48 of 80 3 of 3 0 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Angelo picks Jared Vanderaa, noting his volume striking and size advantage. He mentions Vanderaa has wrestling in his back pocket and should cruise to a decision if he fights like he did against Andre Arlovski. He acknowledges Chase Sherman's high output but points out Sherman is very hittable, absorbing over 6 significant strikes per minute. He thinks the fight is closer than the odds suggest but favors Vanderaa.

"Jared bandera is the pick... this should be a pick and fight the odds are heavily favoring jared van dara I think this is closer to even."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady leans toward Jared Vanderaa, emphasizing that if Vanderaa takes the fight to the mat, he will win easily due to Sherman's terrible ground game. He notes that Sherman has no striking defense and poor cardio, while Vanderaa has better cardio and defensive responsibility. However, he questions whether Vanderaa will actually attempt takedowns, as he has zero takedown attempts in his last five fights. He predicts a first-round ground-and-pound TKO if Vanderaa wrestles.

first round ground and pound TKO
"jared bandera first round grounded pound victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody thinks Vanderaa will weather Sherman's early storm and then take over with volume and pressure. He notes Sherman tends to fade in the second and third rounds. He's not confident because both are low-level heavyweights, but he leans Vanderaa due to output and durability.

Mentions Vanderaa over 51.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
"vandarin not going to take him down early i bet what he needs to do is weather the early storm and just continuously put on pressure continuously come forward wear on him"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not discuss this fight in detail. He only mentions it in passing when asked about fights likely to go to decision, listing Sherman vs Vanderaa as one possibility. No pick or bet is made.

"Sherman vanderaa"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Chase Sherman

Paul thinks this is a dogger pass situation but picks Sherman for the show. He notes that Vanderaa has poor fight IQ and that Sherman could win if he keeps it standing. He's not confident but sees value at plus money.

"another spot i think is dog or pass but like i i don't think i can build up the courage after coming off of like such a horrible week last week to bet uh chase sherman at plus 175 but …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

The Guru calls Jared Vanderaa a lock, citing his size advantage and better grappling compared to Sherman. He notes Vanderaa's decent performance against Arlovski and Romanov, while Sherman is small and lacks grappling. He predicts a TKO or submission in the second round.

TKO or submission in the second round
"Jared Vanderaa is the lock."
LOSS vs Aleksei Oleinik
Submission (scarf hold) R1 3:39 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Aleksei Oleinik 0 8 of 22 36% 8 of 22 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:44
Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 40 37% 23 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:54
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Aleksei Oleinik 8 of 22 36% 3 of 16 2 of 3 3 of 3 8 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 15 of 40 37% 13 of 37 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 30 1 of 1 7 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Angelo picks Aleksei Oleinik despite his age (45). He notes that Oleinik is a submission threat anywhere on the ground, and that Latifi's low-volume wrestling style plays into Oleinik's strengths. He also mentions Latifi's recent illness and doubts about his conditioning.

"i like alexionic i liked him two weeks ago i like him now i think alexia olenek pulls off the upset here"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Big Brady picks Aleksei Oleinik to win by first-round submission. He notes Vanderaa has terrible takedown defense (20%) and striking defense (43%), and is coming in on short notice. Oleinik has good takedown accuracy and can take Vanderaa down or pull guard, then submit him quickly.

first round submission
"give me alexia olynyk to win by first round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa, arguing that Oleinik is too old and undersized. He notes Oleinik's cardio fades quickly and that Vanderaa has a 50-pound weight advantage. Cody thinks Vanderaa's volume and durability will overwhelm Oleinik in the later rounds. He expects Vanderaa by TKO, possibly after surviving an early submission attempt.

Vanderaa by TKO
"i got jared vander i got jared vander after the first round and i would like to save andra by tko"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Levi acknowledges Oleinik's age (turning 45) but notes heavyweights can have resurgences. He does not see UFC-caliber skills in Vanderaa, who has lost to better guys. He thinks Oleinik could get an Ezekiel choke, but is hesitant because of the age factor. He picks Oleinik but advises caution.

"i just can't pick jaren vader in a ufc fight period"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

I lean Vanderaa because he can keep Oleinik on the outside with his striking and movement, especially in the bigger cage. He's not a big knockout puncher but can use volume and leg kicks. If he can avoid takedowns for 12 minutes, he can cruise to a decision. However, it's a volatile fight and he's on short notice.

"The pick here is going to be Vanderaa slight lean towards him... if he's able to go out there and give us a solid 12 minutes without getting taken down I could see him cruising to a decision victory."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

Paul picks Oleinik at plus money, believing the old man has one more win. He notes Vanderaa's poor takedown defense, as seen against Romanov and Spivak. Paul thinks Oleinik can get takedowns and find his signature scarf hold or Ezekiel choke. He acknowledges Oleinik's cardio issues but thinks he can finish early. He has already bet Oleinik at +100.

Oleinik by submission +165
"i think the old man oh linux got another one in the tank cody i bet i'm at plus 100"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Aleksei Oleinik

The MMA Guru picks Aleksei Oleinik, expressing disdain for Jared Vanderaa's physique and performance. He expects Oleinik to get a first-round submission, possibly by arm triangle or rear-naked choke, citing Vanderaa's grappling issues and Oleinik's full camp.

first round submission prediction
"i'm gonna go with alexi olynyk here jared vandira is garbage"
LOSS vs Andrei Arlovski
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrei Arlovski 0 64 of 133 48% 71 of 140 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 70 of 156 44% 102 of 190 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrei Arlovski 0 30 of 55 54% 32 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 23 of 58 39% 30 of 65 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Andrei Arlovski 0 20 of 44 45% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 19 of 42 45% 33 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:17
3 Andrei Arlovski 0 14 of 34 41% 16 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jared Vanderaa 0 28 of 56 50% 39 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrei Arlovski 64 of 133 48% 40 of 100 19 of 26 5 of 7 60 of 128 4 of 5 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 70 of 156 44% 30 of 110 24 of 29 16 of 17 55 of 134 15 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrei Arlovski 30 of 55 54% 18 of 42 8 of 9 4 of 4 29 of 54 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 23 of 58 39% 13 of 46 6 of 8 4 of 4 19 of 53 4 of 5 0 of 0
2 Andrei Arlovski 20 of 44 45% 15 of 33 5 of 10 0 of 1 18 of 41 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 19 of 42 45% 6 of 27 11 of 13 2 of 2 15 of 35 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Andrei Arlovski 14 of 34 41% 7 of 25 6 of 7 1 of 2 13 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 28 of 56 50% 11 of 37 7 of 8 10 of 11 21 of 46 7 of 10 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Angelo picks Arlovski, expecting a three-round kickboxing match where Arlovski's footwork and speed allow him to outpoint Vanderaa. He compares it to Arlovski's fight against Carlos Felipe and thinks Arlovski will jab his way to a decision win. He warns not to sleep on Vanderaa, who is better than his matchups suggest.

"i think andre olofsky out points jared van dara i think he just jab jab jabs his way to a three-round decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Big Brady believes Arlovski is the more skilled fighter despite being 42. He notes Arlovski has improved his striking defense and changed his style to be more conservative. He criticizes Vanderaa's 20% takedown defense and 39% striking defense, calling him a walking punching bag. Brady thinks Arlovski will win a decision, as he hasn't had a finish since 2015. He sees no clear path to victory for Vanderaa.

Arlovski by decision
"give me andre alaska to win and give me arlofsky to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Cody picks Vanderaa as an underdog, citing Arlovski's age (43) and low output. He notes Vanderaa has a good chin and has shown volume in fights. He thinks Vanderaa can outwork Arlovski over three rounds, especially if he pressures.

"i'll go vandara and i know it's not it's definitely not a sexy pick"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Daniel Levi picks Andrei Arlovski, stating he is much faster and can fight for three rounds. He notes that Jared Vanderaa is slow and plodding, and that Arlovski's volume and boxing will win him the fight. Levi expects Arlovski to win a decision, as Vanderaa is durable but not a takedown threat.

"i'm gonna go with arlovsky though man i think he's way faster"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Vanderaa is a solid striker with good combinations and forward pressure. Arlovski is an aging point-fighter who has faced low-output opponents recently. Vanderaa should win exchanges and has the power to hurt Arlovski. Arlovski's durability hasn't been tested by someone with Vanderaa's combination punching. Vanderaa is the dog of the night.

Vanderaa by KO in round 2; moneyline is the main play
"he's easily my dog of the night for this card i got two units on him at plus 140 already i think he's a great spot and i think he's going to pull off the upside here against the aging …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

Paul thinks Arlovski is the more technical fighter and that Vanderaa doesn't have fight-ending power. He notes Arlovski has been winning decisions lately and expects a similar low-volume affair. He acknowledges Arlovski's age but believes he can edge out another win.

"i think andre is the more technical fighter all the way around"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Andrei Arlovski

The MMA Guru picks Andrei Arlovski by decision, citing his veteran striking and experience. He views Vanderaa as a bottom-feeder who takes too much damage and expects Arlovski to pick him apart.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm gonna go valofsky here again"
TKO (punches) R2 4:43 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alexandr Romanov 0 56 of 78 71% 78 of 103 5 of 7 71% 0 0 6:31
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 23 56% 19 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alexandr Romanov 0 9 of 20 45% 10 of 21 4 of 5 80% 0 0 2:05
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 21 61% 16 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alexandr Romanov 0 47 of 58 81% 68 of 82 1 of 2 50% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 0 of 2 0% 3 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alexandr Romanov 56 of 78 71% 48 of 66 6 of 10 2 of 2 11 of 22 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 23 56% 4 of 12 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 19 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alexandr Romanov 9 of 20 45% 6 of 13 1 of 5 2 of 2 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 21 61% 4 of 10 2 of 3 7 of 8 10 of 17 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Alexandr Romanov 47 of 58 81% 42 of 53 5 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 0 of 0 45 of 56
Jared Vanderaa 0 of 2 0% 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"
WIN vs Justin Tafa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Font vs. Garbrandt · May 22, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jared Vanderaa 0 74 of 147 50% 74 of 147 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 121 of 248 48% 141 of 269 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jared Vanderaa 0 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 31 of 64 48% 31 of 64 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jared Vanderaa 0 26 of 47 55% 26 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Tafa 0 47 of 90 52% 60 of 103 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
3 Jared Vanderaa 0 33 of 62 53% 33 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
Justin Tafa 0 43 of 94 45% 50 of 102 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jared Vanderaa 74 of 147 50% 35 of 102 32 of 38 7 of 7 70 of 143 4 of 4 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 121 of 248 48% 64 of 181 34 of 43 23 of 24 104 of 226 17 of 22 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jared Vanderaa 15 of 38 39% 9 of 31 4 of 5 2 of 2 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 31 of 64 48% 14 of 44 7 of 9 10 of 11 27 of 58 4 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jared Vanderaa 26 of 47 55% 14 of 33 7 of 9 5 of 5 24 of 45 2 of 2 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 47 of 90 52% 26 of 66 12 of 15 9 of 9 39 of 79 8 of 11 0 of 0
3 Jared Vanderaa 33 of 62 53% 12 of 38 21 of 24 0 of 0 32 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Justin Tafa 43 of 94 45% 24 of 71 15 of 19 4 of 4 38 of 89 5 of 5 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked May 18, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Jared Vanderaa

Big Brady picks the underdog Vanderaa, reasoning that if Vanderaa can get takedowns, he has a huge advantage on the ground with submissions and ground-and-pound, while Tafa is lost on his back. He acknowledges Tafa's striking power could knock Vanderaa out early, but believes Vanderaa's path to victory via grappling is viable. He expects an early finish.

Vanderaa by ground-and-pound, first round
"i'm gonna pick the dog here in vendera to get those takedowns to get that ground upon victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Cody Saftic picks Justin Tafa, citing Tafa's striking advantage and Vanderaa's hittability. He notes that Vanderaa is slow, flat-footed, and defensively unsound, and that Tafa has shown improvement in his last fight against Carlos Felipe. Saftic believes Tafa will get a knockout within the first round and a half, but acknowledges that if it goes longer, Vanderaa could capitalize with his ground-and-pound. He suggests live betting Vanderaa if Tafa fades.

Tafa by knockout, live bet Vanderaa if Tafa fades
"my pick's going to be topha tafa and i think he should be able to get this one done by knockout but toff has got a round and a half to get this thing done by knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 20, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Daniel Levi picks Justin Tafa, believing Tafa's striking power and improving takedown defense will be too much for Vanderaa. He notes that Vanderaa is a tough guy but a walking punching bag, and that Tafa's Samoan kickboxing style with sneaky uppercuts and leg kicks will lead to a first-round knockout. He dismisses Vanderaa's alleged wrestling credentials.

first round knockout
"i think justin tafa is going to knock him out in the first round so i'm going tafa here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Matt picks Justin Tafa by second-round knockout, but with low confidence. He notes Tafa showed improved patience and leg kicks in his last fight against Carlos Felipe, which changed his perception of Tafa. However, he acknowledges Vanderaa could take a grapple-heavy approach and be successful, so he is not trusting either fighter heavily. He sees this as a good matchup for Tafa to find a knockout, but not a lock play.

Justin Tafa by KO/TKO round 2
"i'll go justin tafa via second round knockout in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked May 19, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Justin Tafa

Paul Shaughnessy also picks Tafa but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Tafa is only 4-2 and has shown inconsistency, but believes he is the better striker and that Vanderaa's wrestling advantage may not be enough. He suggests passing on the moneyline and instead looking for a better price on Tafa by knockout, or live betting.

Tafa by knockout (plus money), pass on moneyline
"i hate to keep saying past pass pass so i i will make a pick it will be justin tafa but you know it could get a better price on it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 22, 2021 (fight day)
Justin Tafa

The MMA Guru predicts Justin Tafa will win by first-round KO via uppercut. He dismisses Vanderaa's wrestling as garbage and expects Tafa to chop at the calf early, slowing Vanderaa down. Then Tafa will catch him against the cage with an uppercut, leading to a TKO finish.

"i'm going first round ko for justin tafar here"
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
TKO (punches) R2 4:32 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 51 of 72 70% 107 of 135 3 of 3 100% 0 0 8:29
Jared Vanderaa 0 13 of 24 54% 27 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 15 of 20 75% 38 of 46 2 of 2 100% 0 0 4:26
Jared Vanderaa 0 10 of 15 66% 18 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Serghei Spivac 0 36 of 52 69% 69 of 89 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:03
Jared Vanderaa 0 3 of 9 33% 9 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 51 of 72 70% 51 of 72 0 of 0 0 of 0 7 of 17 0 of 0 44 of 55
Jared Vanderaa 13 of 24 54% 8 of 19 3 of 3 2 of 2 11 of 22 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 15 of 20 75% 15 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 9 0 of 0 10 of 11
Jared Vanderaa 10 of 15 66% 5 of 10 3 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Serghei Spivac 36 of 52 69% 36 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 8 0 of 0 34 of 44
Jared Vanderaa 3 of 9 33% 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Serghei Spivac

Daniel Levi praises Serghei Spivac's tough competition in the UFC, having faced Walt Harris, Tai Tuivasa, Marcin Tybura, and Carlos Felipe. He believes Vanderaa is the first 'softball' of Spivac's UFC run and expects Spivac to handle him decisively. Levi notes Spivac's versatility, whether by head kick, schoolyard headlock, or grinding out a decision. He is confident in Spivac's skills and training at Extreme Couture.

"i got uh the moldovan sergey spivak to win this fight shaq"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.

Over 1.5 rounds (1 unit at plus money); more more Monkey Knife Fight
"I did bet the over on the rounds. One and a half rounds. ... I put a full unit on the over on round. I think I got it at plus money."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.

second round finish
"give me alexander romanov to win by i want to say second round finish"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.

first round TKO
"romanov takes him down the first round tko's them and we go home happy"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.

submission or ground and pound finish
"i think romano is going to take this guy to sky city i think he's going to give him some frequent flyer miles and i think he's going to submit him with something"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.

Over 1.5 rounds (will play with Angelo)
"I love that one and a half. I'm going to go on it and play that as well. I think I I completely agree that even if Romanov kind of dominates, maybe takes him down, I think Jared's tough enough to to withstand that."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.

Romanov second round TKO; Vanderaa round three +2000; Vanderaa by KO +600 (hedge)
"I will go romanov second round tko but i will hedge a little bit with that round three vandal or even that vandera ko at plus 600."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.

"he should roll here against fandura it's a it's an easy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Alexandr Romanov

The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.

Romanov by first-round submission (forearm choke)
"i think he'll get the finish here... maybe go for like a first round finish for alexander romanov he's got that forearm choke"