vs
+150 -150
UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025 · Heavyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady Next Fight
Age 40
Height 6' 3"
Reach 78.0"
Weight 249 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 30
Height 6' 4"
Reach 79.0"
Weight 265 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Marcin Tybura
3.56 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.26 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
1.3 TD Avg
33.0% TD Acc.
70.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Mick Parkin
4.7 SLpM
50.0% Str. Acc.
4.13 SApM
58.0% Str. Def.
1.38 TD Avg
46.0% TD Acc.
50.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Marcin Tybura
Moneyline
Caesars +150
KO/TKO
BetRivers +650
Submission
FanDuel +1100
Decision
BetRivers +340
Mick Parkin
Moneyline
BetWay -150
KO/TKO
BetWay +350
Submission
BetRivers +1400
Decision
BetWay +240
Marcin Tybura - Fight History
LOSS vs Tyrell Fortune
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Pyfer · Mar 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 47 of 110 42% 85 of 153 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Tyrell Fortune 0 30 of 59 50% 49 of 81 3 of 5 60% 0 0 5:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 8 of 22 36% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyrell Fortune 0 9 of 15 60% 18 of 26 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:03
2 Marcin Tybura 0 19 of 50 38% 21 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tyrell Fortune 0 13 of 26 50% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcin Tybura 0 20 of 38 52% 51 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:41
Tyrell Fortune 0 8 of 18 44% 18 of 29 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 47 of 110 42% 22 of 77 20 of 27 5 of 6 36 of 96 11 of 14 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 30 of 59 50% 24 of 53 6 of 6 0 of 0 18 of 43 6 of 6 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 2 4 of 17 4 of 5 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 9 of 15 60% 8 of 14 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 2 of 2 5 of 9
2 Marcin Tybura 19 of 50 38% 8 of 35 7 of 11 4 of 4 17 of 47 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 13 of 26 50% 11 of 24 2 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marcin Tybura 20 of 38 52% 9 of 26 11 of 12 0 of 0 15 of 32 5 of 6 0 of 0
Tyrell Fortune 8 of 18 44% 5 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 14 3 of 3 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tyrell Fortune vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fortune (-120); Tybura (+100)

Round 1
There is one heavyweight card on the billing, and it happens now. At the tender age of 40, Polish all-around fighter Tybura (27-10, 14-9 UFC) has slowed to a degree, but wins in two of three suggest he is still not out of it yet. He welcomes former Bellator big man Fortune (17-3, 2 NC; 0-0 UFC) to the organization, who will have one Lally brother of Arizona Combat Sports fame in his corner. Keeping tabs on the action and hoping it will not end up in the hands of the judges will be referee Herb Dean, who would prefer not to be paid by the hour in this affair. The late replacement Fortune offers a glove touch that is accepted by “Tybur,” and away they go.
Fortune bounces lightly around on his heels while Tybura slowly works his way towards him, and he parries a front kick. After offering little offense, Fortune springs into action with a textbook double-leg takedown that dumps Tybura on his back. The newcomer starts jackhammering Tybura with his free right hand, pounding on the veteran until Tybura turns to defend against the strikes. Tybura gets to a knee while Fortune keeps clubbing him, and Fortune leans on him to smother him and prevent him from standing.
“Tybur” stands back up with the wall behind him, and he thwarts the first mat return attempt. Fortune grinds on his opponent, with Tybura framing off his face with an elbow that sets up a knee on the chin of Fortune. The debutant ignores the boos to keep squeezing Tybura against the cage, and Tybura slides another elbow off his face and knees Fortune in the stomach twice. Tybura pushes off Fortune’s face to break off. He lumbers forward slowly to offer a labored one-two, and Fortune strikes him back with a right hand. Tybura tosses up a kick that collides with the arm, and he swarms forward with a trio of punches. Fortune’s right hand is countered with a right up top, and he ends the round with a front kick.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fortune

Round 2
Tybura introduces himself again with kicks, and he wings a right hand over the top as Fortune circles away. Fortune gathers a head of steam to hurl two punches up top, and Tybura bounds off them and keeps his push kick going. Tybura hits nothing but air with two offered punches, with volume exceptionally low between the two as they take turns slowly engaging. Tybura hurls a right hand and eats a right on the jaw on the way in, and they clinch up with Tybura scoring knees and a check hook to break off. Fortune scores another hard right hand when Tybura is about to engage, and he ignores a low kick but cannot avoid two front kicks. The second slides down into the cup, and Dean calls time as the boos rain down. Fortune only takes a couple seconds before saying he is good to go, and he re-engages with a power right hand. The newcomer is well out of way when Tybura strikes at him, and he beats “Tybur” to the punch with flying fists.
Fortune’s overhand right scores practically any time Tybura meanders forward to attack, as he appears to be giving a tell that Fortune has picked up on. Tybura intercepts an advancing Fortune with a chopping leg kick, and it takes the ACS fighter a moment to get back up. Tybura slings a right hand and avoids the counter he knows is coming. Fortune puts a right hand down the pipe when Tybura kicks his lead leg, and he dances away from slow punches but cannot evade the thumping calf kick. Fortune takes a flush body kick after landing a jab, and he splits the guard with a fierce two-punch flurry. Tybura keeps walking face-first into punches, and he does not bat an eye and has to chase the fleet of foot Fortune around until the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Fortune
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Fortune

Round 3
Fortune starts off the final round pushing for a takedown, and he bullies the UFC vet against the cage but cannot get him down. Tybura presses his hand of Fortune’s face to stop the attempt from going anywhere, and he manages to break free. Tybura boxes his way forward, but Fortune is too slick and does not absorb much. Tybura crashes into him, and the two clinch up. Fortune digs punches to the body until Tybura separates again, and it is the Polish fighter who strikes with a front kick. Tybura pops Fortune in the chops with a right hand, and he goes again to the body with a kick. Fortune whiffs on an overhand right, and Tybura presses him to the cage wall. Fortune turns him around with relative ease, and Tybura strikes with a knee but gets elbows hard. Tybura frames off with his elbow to get away.
The front kick of “Tybur” intercepts Fortune, who swings heavily at him. Fortune connects with a one-two and is promptly driven back with power punches back his direction. Tybura attacks aggressively, and Fortune tackles him to the floor. Tybura stands, and he is quickly mat returned. Tybura rushes to put his side to the cage wall, and Fortune clubs him with right hands as Tybura stands up. The two battle for underhooks, and Tybura thumps Fortune up with short punches and knees. Tybura elbows his man in the face from up close, and Fortune responds with knees to the stomach. Tybura punches his way back into the clinch, and he tags Fortune with a huge overhand right. Tybura goes headhunting, and Fortune strikes the body. Tybura, who appears to be the fresher of the two, clubs Fortune with a few punches, and Fortune gathers a head of steam and swings back as they reach the final horn, exhausted and drenched in sweat.
The initial scores are announced as 30-27, 29-28 and 29-28 all in favor of Tybura, and the crowd drowns out the building with boos. There is some confusion, and Fortune angrily departs the cage with his team as they believed he did enough. Bruce Buffer is called back to the Octagon, where he apologizes and re-announces the winner via unanimous decision as Fortune. Sometimes these things happen in MMA.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Fortune)

The Official Result
Tyrell Fortune def. Marcin Tybura via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

Angelo picks Tyrell Fortune because he believes Fortune's power and striking will be too much for the aging Marcin Tybura. He notes that if Tybura can get takedowns, he could grind out a win, but he doubts Tybura can avoid Fortune's power. Angelo suggests betting on Fortune inside the distance if hesitant on the moneyline, as Tybura is unlikely to finish Fortune.

Win inside distance decision no action
"Tyrell's going to be the pick. If you're too scared to bet him, then grab him at win inside the distance decision no action."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Mar 23, 2026 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans toward Marcin Tybura to win by second-round submission. He acknowledges it's a greasy heavyweight fight and sees paths for both. He favors Tybura's experience and submission grappling advantage on the ground. He notes Tybura is 40 with a questionable chin, but believes if Tybura gets on top, the fight ends quickly. He also mentions Fortune's power and early finishes but thinks Tybura's path is more reliable.

Tybura by submission round 2
"I'm leaning Tybura here. ... I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Tybura, expecting him to survive Fortune's early explosiveness and take over as Fortune fades. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round.

"It's going to be the Polish powerhouse, Marcin Tybura."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor also picks Tybura, agreeing that Fortune's grappling is bad and that Tybura's backtake game will be decisive. He notes that Fortune is not interested in fighting and that Tybura's decline is a concern but Fortune is not the type to exploit it.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

Daniel thinks Fortune is catching Tybura at the right time, as Tybura is 40 and near retirement. He believes Fortune's motivation and well-rounded skills will earn him a UFC debut win.

"I think this is right place, right time for Tyrell Fortune to at least get one UFC win under his belt against an established, serious name in Marcin Tybura."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Tyrell Fortune

The host believes Fortune's wrestling and grappling will be the difference, allowing him to control the fight on the ground. He notes Tybura's experience but thinks Fortune's strength and top pressure will grind out a decision. He expresses some concern about Fortune's submission defense after a heel hook loss but expects him to have shored that up.

decision
"I think we'll see Fortune having shored up those submission defense issues and I think that would lead to him grinding this fight out uh and having a successful UFC debut."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul leans Tybura as a dog, citing Fortune's questionable cardio and heart. He's hesitant but sees value on Tybura at plus money.

"I'm taking the dog in Tybura as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, despite acknowledging Tyrell Fortune's wrestling background. He believes Tybura's experience and durability will carry him to a decision win. He notes that Fortune has not faced high-level competition recently and that Tybura can grind out a win. He predicts a 29-28 decision.

decision
"I'm picking Martin Tyura to win this fight."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2026 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura due to his grappling advantage, noting that Tybura is one of the few heavyweights with a backtake game, while Fortune has poor grappling instincts and gives up his back. He also mentions Fortune's lack of willingness to finish.

"I think for the grappling alone... I pick Tabora."
LOSS vs Ante Delija
KO R1 2:03 · UFC Fight Night: Imavov vs. Borralho · Sep 06, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 9 44% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Ante Delija 1 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 9 44% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:18
Ante Delija 1 13 of 28 46% 15 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ante Delija 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 4 of 9 44% 1 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 2 of 7 2 of 2 0 of 0
Ante Delija 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0 9 of 23 0 of 0 4 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Ante Delija vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Delija (-115); Tybura (+100)

Round 1
It’s heavyweight morbin’ time. A rematch a decade in the making is here, as perennial contender Tybura (27-9, 14-8 UFC) meets former PFL tourney champ Delija (25-6, 0-0 UFC) for the second time. Their first encounter ended with Delija shattering his leg from after getting his kick checked, and revenge may be on his mind. The lone heavyweight contest today will be officiated by referee Marc Goddard, and with no bad blood between them, the large men bump their equally large fists together.
Delija wants to make an immediate statement, walking Tybura down and busting him in the chops. As he drives Tybura to the wall, he makes a mistake by getting too close, and Tybura wraps him up. The Polish fighter turns Delija around on the fencing and starts to grind on him, and it does not take long for the fans to turn on him. Tybura does not remotely care, as he drops down in pursuit of a double. Tybura goes to his knees to get the fight down, and Delija keeps his back to the cage and stays upright. Delija turns him around and breaks free. Tybura punches his way in to try to clinch, and he bails on it and puts a front kick on the chest. In a brief exchange, Delija catches Tybura at the end of a right hand, backing off the UFC vet. Delija gives chase, stringing three punches together and punctuating the combo with a vicious right hand that separates Tybura from his senses and puts him down on one knee against the wall.
Smelling blood in the water, “Walking Trouble” gives Tybura plenty of trouble as he clubs his man with three destructive right hands. Tybura may be out cold or is hanging on for dear life, and Goddard says enough is enough and gets between the heavy hitters.
Talk about a way to make your promotional debut, as he is now a top-10 heavyweight by crushing a ranked adversary in the opening frame. The victor drops to his knees and lets out an outpouring of emotion, while teammate Tom Aspinall proudly cheers for his new training partner getting the job done in a huge way.

The Official Result
Ante Delija def. Marcin Tybura R1 2:03 via TKO (Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 31, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo reluctantly picks Marcin Tybura, citing his toughness, experience, and ability to grind out wins. He notes that the line has flipped with Delija now the favorite. He acknowledges Delija's power and takedowns but points out his age (35) and that he's from another organization, which the community often dismisses. He believes Tybura's durability and cagemanship will be key.

"I'm going to pick Marcen Tyora. I'm going to stick with that pick, but it's a reluctant pick."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

Big Brady picks Ante Delija, citing his speed and power on the feet. He notes Tybura's chin has been cracked and he is almost 40. He sees Delia winning by knockout if he can stuff takedowns, but acknowledges Tybura's path via grappling. He predicts a knockout win.

Delija by knockout
"I'll say Delia, I'll say Dia by knockout, but I'm looking forward to it."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor picks Tybura, emphasizing that Delija is a 'quadruple A' fighter who will win if the opponent is bad, but Tybura is not bad. He notes that Tybura's grappling and awkward striking will test Delija, who tends to back up and corner himself. Connor also points out that Delija's lack of intimidation factor means Tybura can impose his game.

Tybura opened at -210, now -110; Delija opened at +180, now -110
"I don't think Marcin Tabora is very bad at fighting. No, that's the thing is that Tabora, he can get hurt pretty quickly and easily in fights. And if you hurt him, you can overwhelm him."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The host recalls their first meeting where Tybura won after Delija broke his leg. He thinks Delija can be successful in the UFC and will land more damaging shots, be more aggressive, mix in clinch and takedowns, eventually find a dominant position and get Tybura out of there via TKO.

TKO
"I think that will eventually lead to Dia finding a dominant position to rain down big shots and get Tyora out of there."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Ante Delija

The Guru picks Ante Delija, arguing that Tybura's 'fraud check' wins come against less experienced opponents, while Delija is a seasoned heavyweight with no clear holes. He notes Delija's training with Tom Aspinall and believes his athleticism and footwork will be too much. He predicts a TKO finish in round two or three, possibly from leg kicks and in-close shots.

TKO finish
"I'm going to go with Ante Deia. I think he's a step above the guys that do get fraud checked by Tyura."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura, noting that Delija is a 'quadruple A' heavyweight who wins against bad opponents but struggles against competent ones. He believes Tybura's awkward striking, wrestling, and durability will be too much for Delija, who is not a special athlete. Zane also mentions that Tybura has a history of beating run-of-the-mill heavyweights and that Delija's defensive style will not intimidate Tybura.

Tybura opened at -210, now -110; Delija opened at +180, now -110
"I gotta pick Marcin Tabora. Totally."
WIN vs Mick Parkin
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 61 of 155 39% 64 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Mick Parkin 0 60 of 145 41% 102 of 192 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mick Parkin 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Marcin Tybura 0 7 of 20 35% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Mick Parkin 0 15 of 38 39% 41 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
3 Marcin Tybura 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Mick Parkin 0 22 of 62 35% 37 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 61 of 155 39% 28 of 110 29 of 40 4 of 5 60 of 151 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 60 of 145 41% 47 of 130 1 of 2 12 of 13 49 of 118 2 of 2 9 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 21 of 56 37% 4 of 34 15 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 23 of 45 51% 13 of 34 1 of 1 9 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 25
3 Marcin Tybura 33 of 79 41% 20 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 3 32 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 22 of 62 35% 19 of 58 0 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mick Parkin vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Parkin (-118), Tybura (-102)

Round 1
Marc Goddard gets his first assignment of the card for this heavyweight scrap. Parkin is working behind inside low kicks early. Tybura finds the range on a body kick. A left lands for Tybura. The Pole connects with a lead uppercut in an exchange. Parkin with another low kick, but Tybura answers with a combination and a front kick. Tybura backs his man up with an overhand left. A body kick for Tybura and Parkin responds with a leg kick. Parkin counters a low kick with a two-punch combo. Parkin lands a bodykick. Tybura ducks under a punch and secures a body lock, shoving Parkin into the cage. Parkin frees himself quickly. Tybura lands a left to the body. Parkin wades into the clinch and he pushes the Pole into the fence. Parkin backs off, alnding a lead hok. Tybura answers with a front kick down the middle. Tybura punches his way into the clinch and ends the round with a powerful takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Tybura charges forward, landing a left hook and a front kick. The Pole tries to initiate the clinch, but Parkin shoves him away and sticks a jab. A left gets through for Tybura. Parkin catches a kick and shoves Tybura to the mat. Parkin follows his foe to the mat and moves to side control. The Brit looks to trap Tybura in a crucifix, but Tybura escapes. Parkin is in half guard, working to create openings from above. Parkin maintains control and then begins with a barrage of right hands from top position. The crowd gets excited, sensing a finish, but Tybura is blocking a lot of these. Parkin maintains top position, but Tybura briefly threatens with a heel hook. Parkin shucks it off and dives back on top. Tybura scrambles up with about 1:45 to go in the round. A lead left hand gets through for Parkin, and he follows up with a straight right. Parkin forces the clinch against the fence and he drops down and dumps Tybura to the mat. Park is back in half guard. Tybura builds up to his knees and eventually stands. Tybura turns Parkin into the fence but isn’t able to do anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Parkin

Round 3
An uppercut gets through right away for Tybura. Tybura throws a left to the body. Both men look labored to start the round. It’s Tybura who connects with a left hook. Tybura counters a leg kick with a two punch combination. Tybura ducks and lands an overhand right. Another solid left for the Pole. Tybura gets the better of an exchange and he pumps his jab immediately after. Parkin finds the range on a solid right. Tybura lunges forward, throwing offnese and keeping Parkin on his heels. Parkin with another clean right hand. Tybura goes body-head. Parkin with a slow leg kick and Tybura lands a left as the Brit moves straight back. They clinch with about 30 seconds left and Tybura is looking for a single leg. Parkin stands on one leg and pops Tybura in the face with a series of rights before the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Mick Parkin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision
"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Connor picks Parkin based on a gut feeling that Parkin's jab and technical boxing will make Tybura uncomfortable and lead to a knockout. He notes Parkin is patient and not overly aggressive, which might prevent Tybura from setting up takedowns. However, Connor admits he has no faith in Parkin's ground game and calls it a gut pick.

"I just have this gut feeling that parkin living behind his jab can actually make tybora the kind of uncomfortable persistently uncomfortable that tybora just dies."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision
"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura as the smart pick, noting Tybura always gets hurt early but then finds a takedown and suffocates opponents with back control. He has no faith in Parkin's ground game. However, Zane acknowledges Parkin might sleep Tybura before grappling becomes a factor, calling it a gut pick.

"I'm just gonna pick marching to bora. I just think it's the smart pick."
WIN vs Jhonata Diniz
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 35 of 49 71% 153 of 187 1 of 3 33% 0 1 7:14
Jhonata Diniz 0 15 of 29 51% 27 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 66 of 82 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:57
Jhonata Diniz 0 7 of 14 50% 17 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:36
2 Marcin Tybura 0 32 of 44 72% 87 of 105 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:17
Jhonata Diniz 0 8 of 15 53% 10 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 35 of 49 71% 33 of 46 1 of 2 1 of 1 9 of 19 0 of 0 26 of 30
Jhonata Diniz 15 of 29 51% 13 of 27 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 18 1 of 1 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 3
Jhonata Diniz 7 of 14 50% 7 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 3 1 of 1 6 of 10
2 Marcin Tybura 32 of 44 72% 31 of 42 0 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 17 0 of 0 24 of 27
Jhonata Diniz 8 of 15 53% 6 of 13 1 of 1 1 of 1 8 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jhonata Diniz vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tybura (-148), Diniz (+124)

Round 1
With Derrick Lewis out for the time being, Tybura (25-9, 12-8 UFC) is now the man who stands across the Octagon from undefeated hammer-thrower Diniz (8-0, 2-0 UFC). The Brazilian came in a few weeks ago expecting to serve as the favorite against “The Black Beast,” but instead he finds himself in a pick-‘em with a well-rounded Polish heavyweight. The big men get after it as soon as referee Herb Dean says go, with a touch of gloves a formality that happens first. Tybura strikes first with a body kick, and he shells up to block two punches up top. Diniz lets fly a surprising head kick, and he blitzes forward and clips the Polish fighter with a short, mean left hand. Tybura falls to his back, and Diniz gladly leaps on top while moving to half guard hacking down with elbows. Tybura attempts a sweep, but Diniz blasts him in the face with hammerfists in an effort to stop it. Tybura steels himself and completes the reversal, dumping the undefeated fighter on his back and lowering himself down into half guard. Diniz clings to the man on top of him to prevent most offense from raining down on him, and the crowd does not appreciate the stalemate that follows. Tybura uses his full body weight to press down, staying chest-to-chest and getting off short strikes on either side. Tybura covers Diniz’ mouth when not smacking him with short strikes that are more irritating than damaging. Tybura grinds with an elbow on the chin, and he uses the awkward face covering to step over to full mount. Tybura keeps tightly pressed rather than posturing up, smothering the unbeaten man and making his life miserable. Tybura sits up to drive a few punches on the chin, and Diniz ties him up again to save himself. Tybura gets in a single heavy elbow, and he rides out the remainder of the round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Gloves are touched to start the round, and once more, Tybura aims a kick to the ribs. Diniz crowds him with a right hand, and Tybura backs off to reset. Tybura reaches out with a left hand that comes up short, and he pushes out a front kick that is also inaccurate. Diniz’ clubbing right hand bounces off the guard, and he narrowly evades a front kick aimed at his chin. Tybura keeps his distance with another front kick, and he dings Diniz with a straight left. Diniz bites down on his mouthpiece and slugs the Polish fighter in the jaw with a few heavy blows, and Tybura strikes back and slips away. Tybura splits the guard with a left, and Diniz wings back three punches that get his attention. Tybura drops down, ducking a punch and setting up a double-leg takedown. “Tybur” climbs into half guard, and Diniz claims that he is getting poked in the eye. Dean tells them to keep working, and Tybura does so with sporadic but effective ground-and-pound. With 1:50 remaining in the round, Tybura assumes full mount, and he starts fishing for an armlock by gripping Diniz’ right wrist and torqueing it. Tybura lets it go so he can set up a crucifix, and he beats down on the Brazilian with punches and elbows. Tybura pounds down with a pair of elbows, and he opens up with several more than rip Diniz’ face wide open. Blood sprays across the canvas in a display reminiscent of the infamous “you don’t know where I’ve been, Lou” scene, only it is the man on his back that is pouring red fluid everywhere. Tybura jackhammers the Brazilian with a massive flurry of elbows, and Diniz barely survives to the bell as cuts are all over his face with blood streaming everywhere. Diniz has to be helped back to his corner, and doctors are going to look closely at him.
Before the third round opens, physicians attend to Diniz and check his condition. He passes the vision test, and the cutman appears to have sealed most of the open wounds on him. However, Diniz is wobbly on his feet even after a minute to recover, and the doctor does not want any further damage inflicted on the Brazilian.
Diniz starts shouting that he is fine, able to continue and is not as hurt as he appears. The medical team thinks otherwise, informing Dean that Diniz’ condition is no bueno and that he should not be fighting anymore today. Dean accepts their advice and calls a halt to the match between rounds, giving a 5:00 finish by doctor stoppage to the Polish fighter.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-8 Tybura
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Tybura

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Jhonata Diniz R2 5:00 via TKO (Doctor Stoppage)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura, emphasizing that Tybura is a durable grinder who can get fights to the ground, while Jhonata Diniz is useless off his back. He notes that Diniz has great striking but untested takedown defense, and Tybura will eat shots to get the takedown. He hopes Tybura is an underdog and plans to bet if so.

Angelo says he will bet on Tybura if he is an underdog, and mentions using the Discord for alerts.
"we're picking marcine he's old he's slow as hell the haircuts insane ... but he is a grinder that can get fights to the ground"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Big Brady leans with Marcin Tybura, believing that if Tybura gets the fight to the mat, he will dominate. He notes that Tybura often gets beat up on the feet before wrestling, but if he uses his fight IQ and takes Diniz down early, he can finish. He also mentions that Diniz is vulnerable on the ground, as seen in fights against Austin Lane and Karl Williams. Brady predicts a first-round knockout via ground and pound or submission.

fight time under 9.75 minutes, under 1.5 rounds
"I do got a lean with tyur here I just think if he gets the fight down to the mat it's a wrap"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody picks Marcin Tybura by submission, citing Tybura's grappling advantage and Diniz's poor takedown defense. He notes Tybura has taken down many heavyweights and has a black belt in BJJ. Cody expects Tybura to take Diniz down and submit him, possibly in the first round.

submission, round 1 (plus 800)
"I took Mar marching daura by submission and it just kind of comes down to like the Tai taiu iasa fight"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Tybura's wrestling will be too much for Diniz. He mentions that Diniz's game is busy in the pocket but that Tybura can tie him up and drag him down. Connor also notes that Tybura has been knocked out before but is durable and awkward.

"Yeah, I think this is a good fight for marty and tibera. Yeah, agreed."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

Daniel Vreeland picks Jhonata Diniz as an underdog, believing he can survive Tybura's takedowns and win on the feet. He notes Diniz's youth, reach, and power, and thinks Tybura is declining. He acknowledges Tybura's ground game but expects Diniz to avoid or survive bad positions and land strikes. He mentions the odds movement as a factor.

"I think I'm willing to roll the dice on the underdog here"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Vreeland picks Tybura as his lock, stating he is 1000% sure Tybura will take down and ground-and-pound Diniz. He believes Tybura's wrestling and top control will be too much for Diniz, leading to a TKO finish.

Marcin Tybura wins by KO/TKO (+525)
"I think Marine tybera is a thousand per gonna take down and grounded pound uh janat Den KN"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Fox picks Oliveira as his lock instead of Tybura, saying he got even safer. He does not provide detailed reasoning for this pick in the transcript, but it is clear he is confident in Oliveira.

"I'm taking Charles Oar... I'm playing it tight now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tybura is a different opponent than Diniz was expecting (originally scheduled to face Derrick Lewis). He expects Tybura to showcase his full MMA game, staying away from Diniz's striking, getting the fight to the ground, and finding a submission opportunity.

submission
"I'm expecting Toro to Showcase his full MMA game here staying away from the Striking of Dennis getting this fight to the ground and eventually finding a submission opportunity"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul picks Marcin Tybura, citing his experience and grappling. He notes Diniz is a one-dimensional striker with poor grappling, and Tybura will take him down and control him. Paul expects Tybura to win by decision or submission, and is confident in the pick.

"Ty bro is a play for me and again I'm glad it's early on the card because I may take a bath on this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jhonata Diniz

The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz, noting his kickboxing background and KO power. He sees value in Diniz as a slight underdog. He believes Diniz's takedown defense will hold up and that he can KO Tybura early, possibly with a jab.

KO/TKO in early rounds
"I'm going to go with janat denz... I think he's got the ability to pick up the takedown defense quite quickly... I can see janat denz getting a KO here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura, expecting him to take Diniz down and get his back. He notes that Tybura is one of the few backtake artists in the heavyweight division and that Diniz is not prepared for that grappling. Zane acknowledges that Tybura can get knocked out early, but he trusts Tybura's wrestling to prevail.

Odds: Tybura opened +115, now -142; Diniz opened -129, now +127. Zane notes it's not hopeless for Diniz if he kicks Tybura's legs early.
"I this looks like I've done a type world win first and foremost, but if he gets caught cold i'm not going to be... No, it would not be a shock."
LOSS vs Serghei Spivac
Submission (armbar) R1 1:44 · UFC on ESPN: Tybura vs. Spivac 2 · Aug 10, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Serghei Spivac 0 0 of 4 0% 9 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:43
Marcin Tybura 0 3 of 5 60% 8 of 11 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Serghei Spivac 0 of 4 0% 0 of 2 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Marcin Tybura 3 of 5 60% 2 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Aug 4, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo picks Marcin Tybura because he already won the first fight and has good takedown defense (only taken down once in six years). He notes that Spivac hasn't evolved much and had a sloppy fight against Oleinik. However, he cautions that Tybura is 38 and Spivac is 9 years younger, and heavyweights are unpredictable. He likely won't bet on this fight.

Likely no money on this fight; age difference a concern
"I think Tor wins here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody agrees with Paul, favoring Tybura due to his cardio, striking, wrestling, and experience. He points out that Spivac's skill set hasn't evolved, his grappling isn't high-level, and he struggles when he can't take down opponents. Cody believes Tybura's ability to persevere and land better shots in later rounds gives him the edge.

"I'm going to agree it's a dogger pass main event for me as well it's not like there's huge dog money on marcine Toro but you got a guy that won the previous matchup"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 5, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Tybura is the better overall fighter with superior striking, cardio, and experience. He won the first fight and has only lost to top-tier heavyweights since. Spivac's improvements may not be enough to overcome Tybura's well-rounded game. The fight likely goes to the scorecards, making Tybura by decision a solid play at plus money.

Tybura by decision; over 2.5 rounds (or over 3.5 rounds) at even money
"I still think he's the better overall fighter in this spot better Striker can compete in the wrestling in my opinion maybe the better pure BJJ specialist probably the better cardio so it's kind of surprising to see him as …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 7, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Paul favors Tybura because he won the previous matchup and still holds advantages in striking, wrestling, cardio, and experience. He notes Spivac hasn't evolved much, has robotic striking, poor cardio, and relies on wrestling which Tybura can neutralize. Paul sees Tybura as a durable journeyman who can grind out a win in a five-round fight.

"I took some Plus 138 on Tuesday Cody cuz I just think tor's got better standup submission grappling may be an edge there speac really lays on the wrestling on a lot of people is he able to you know …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 8, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The MMA Guru picks Marcin Tybura, citing his win in their first fight and his improved takedown defense. He notes Tybura's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to win later rounds, as seen against Blaydes and Romanov. He criticizes Spivac's lack of improvement and finishing ability, pointing out that Spivac landed no significant strikes against Tom Aspinall.

"I'm gonna go with Martin toura over Sergey spivac I don't think toura can be finished on the ground and their first fight toura one"
WIN vs Tai Tuivasa
Submission R1 4:08 · UFC Fight Night: Tuivasa vs. Tybura · Mar 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 15 of 24 62% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tai Tuivasa 0 27 of 41 65% 73 of 96 1 of 4 25% 1 0 2:48
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 15 of 24 62% 9 of 17 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 17 7 of 7 0 of 0
Tai Tuivasa 27 of 41 65% 23 of 34 4 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 20 0 of 0 19 of 21
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tai Tuivasa vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Tuivasa (-122), Tybura (+105)

Round 1
Heavyweights put meat back on the menu for the marquee matchup. Likely having to cut down in weight to reach 266 pounds, Tuivasa (14-6, 8-6 UFC) is ready to let his heavy hands fly. Tybura (24-8, 11-7 UFC), who will be almost 20 pounds lighter officially—not counting whatever Tuivasa weight lost to get there—would prefer not to be on the receiving end of those fists. Although it is always possible that this could go 25 minutes, referee Herb Dean is ready for this to be done sooner than later. He brings them together, and they bump gloves before trying to take the other’s head off. Tuivasa sticks out a jab, and Tybura releases a body kick and a right hand in response. Tuivasa aims a body kick and connects with a few right hands, and Tybura closes in and gets clacked with several elbows on the forehead. The elbows slide Tybura’s head open on several places, causing blood to flow fast. Tybura looks to his hand to see the blood, and Tuivasa starts letting go with heavy leg kicks Tybura lumbers forward, walking through strikes to shoot in for a double. Tybura clasps his hands, and when Tuivasa punches him on the side of the head, he lifts the Aussie up and slams him down to the ground. “Tybur” lands in half guard and starts driving down right hands, and he lets Tuivasa turn to his knees so he can take the back. Tybura gets both hooks in and starts raining down right hands on the side of the head. As he continues to pound on “Bam Bam,” Tuivasa lowers himself down and does not seem otherwise worse for wear. Tuivasa turns to his side and tries to defend the sledgehammers with one hand. Tybura keeps heavy and allows Tuivasa to turn over so he can keep bludgeoning the Aussie. Tybura softens his man up before locking down a rear-naked choke, and he secures it under the chin. Tuivasa fights the grip and kicks with his legs to tough out the choke, and he tries to slowly slide his jaw down to escape choke danger. Tybura does not release the grip even when he hears Tuivasa gasping for air and clinging to consciousness, but he knows the finish is right around the corner. The Polish heavyweight retains his grip, and as he presses down with his full weight from behind, he puts Tuivasa all the way out. Tuivasa goes out on his shield, his arm flopping to the side, and Dean recognizes this immediately and halts the fight. This is a massive win for Tybura, even with Tuivasa skidding, as he lands the first submission in his UFC career, doing so under bright lights. With that technical submission—not the first of the night, making this card somewhat unusual—in the books, this show comes to a close. The Apex will play host again next week to another event before taking to the road, and we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Tai Tuivasa R1 4:08 via Technical Submission (Rear-Naked Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Angelo notes that Tuivasa's chin is gone after three consecutive knockout losses to elite heavyweights, and his takedown defense is only 54%. Tybura is a durable grinder who uses strikes to set up takedowns and will pound on opponents once on top. He thinks Tybura can rush Tuivasa against the cage and grind through takedowns. He is watching the line movement, hoping to get Tybura at +120 or +130 as the fan favorite gets action.

watching line movement; hopes for better odds
"tybor is the underdog pick here I am going to watch the line movement a lot of these fights I'm watching the line movement"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Big Brady picks Tai Tuivasa to win by first-round knockout. He believes Tuivasa's power and striking advantage will be too much for Tybura, who lacks power and has been knocked out before. He notes the risk if the fight goes long and Tybura gets on top, but expects Tuivasa to land first.

by first round knockout
"Give me a taiu iasa first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Cody leans toward Tai Tuivasa, citing his early explosiveness and power as likely too much for Tybura, who has been knocked out quickly in recent fights. He notes Tybura's wrestling threat but believes Tuivasa can stuff early takedowns and land a knockout before the fight gets deep. He acknowledges the line is even money and both have a chance, but Tuivasa's youth and power give him the edge.

by KO
"I feel like I want to go Tai Tuivasa... I just got like a nagging suspicion that Tai's power is just too much for him he crumples him up early."
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Lucrative James is torn on this fight. He acknowledges that stylistically Tai Tuivasa could knock out Tybura, but he is concerned about Tuivasa's mental state, recent three-fight losing streak, and a knee injury three months prior. He also notes Tybura's reliability and grinding style, comparing it to the Blaydes fight. He ultimately decides he likely won't bet on this fight but might play Tuivasa KO in round 1 or 2 or Tybura by decision.

"I can see Ty knocking him out in round one for sure but I can also see Tor just weathering the storm and just coming in as the more reliable heavyweight..."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

The host notes Tuivasa is on a losing streak and heavily reliant on knockout power, but when facing cleaner, crisper opponents he often comes up short. He expects Tybura to have a cleaner all-around game, roughing up Tuivasa in the clinch, dragging him to the floor, and possibly opening up a submission. He acknowledges Tuivasa's power but believes Tybura can avoid it due to Tuivasa's telegraphing. He compares Tybura's ability to take big shots from past opponents and still win, predicting Tybura dictates the fight and grinds out a decision or an arm triangle choke.

arm triangle choke
"I think Toro will come up short against the Tom Aspen of the world but we've seen him take some big shots from guys like Greg Hardy and Walt Harris as well as Ben Rothwell and he rolls well with …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

Paul also picks Tai Tuivasa by knockout, agreeing with Cody that Tybura's wrestling is not likely to be effective early when Tuivasa is fresh. He notes that Tybura will have to eat shots to close distance and that the small cage helps Tuivasa. He acknowledges the unpredictability of heavyweights but sees this as a decent matchup for Tuivasa to get back on track.

by KO
"I'm picking Tai as well I think Tai by knockout... in those first seven and a half minutes or so he's if he does try to close distance he's going to be eating shots trying to do so."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 12, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tai Tuivasa

The Guru picks Tai Tuivasa by TKO in round one or two. He believes Tuivasa's calf kicks will be effective against Tybura, who lacks the low kick defense of Volkov. He notes Tuivasa's ability to get back up from takedowns and his power punching, especially uppercuts and hooks. He thinks Tybura is hittable and Tuivasa will find his chin, as he did against Ciryl Gane.

round one or two KO
"I'm going to go with round two or one KO for tyu evasa... I think tuivasa is going to capitalize chopping that car early and then started to bring it upstairs."
LOSS vs Tom Aspinall
TKO (elbow and punches) R1 1:13 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tom Aspinall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tom Aspinall 1 13 of 18 72% 13 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Marcin Tybura 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tom Aspinall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Marcin Tybura 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tom Aspinall 13 of 18 72% 12 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Marcin Tybura 4 of 15 26% 2 of 13 2 of 2 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Tom Aspinall vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aspinall (-450), Tybura (+350)

Round 1
With this final upcoming matchup lifting it above or lowering the record below for U.K.-based fighters .500 tonight, the organization hands things over to the returning Aspinall (12-3, 5-1 UFC) in the featured attraction. Just one day removed from a full year since his blowout knee injury in this same building, the Liverpudlian optimistically seeks to get back on track of his path towards championship contention. Standing in his way will be Polish grappler and tough out Tybura (24-7, 11-6 UFC), who would like nothing more than to spoil the party at night’s end. When the dust settles, one of these heavyweights will be in the top five in the UFC, while the other may tumble down the rankings. Referee Marc Goddard draws the final assignment of the night, and the large gentlemen bump their large fists together to signal they are ready to get after it. Tybura swings hard to engage, and Aspinall dodges and weaves. The Brit fires off a big head kick, and Tybura blocks it and still stumbles back from the sheer force of the blow. Tybura lumbers forward to engage, and Aspinall is the quicker, looser man who is able to land better in the fierce exchange. Tybura comes up missing the mark on a pair of big punches, and
Aspinall steps forward, brimming with confidence, to deliver a crushing elbow on the chin. Tybura is stunned, frozen in time from the ferocious blow, and Aspinall revs up and plants a one-two on the chin. Tybura topples to his back, barely still conscious, and Aspinall is not about to let him off the hook as the crowd goes wild. Bulldozing the Polish fighter with a short barrage of ground-and-pound as he lords over the fallen Tybura, Aspinall finishes the job with hammerfists to draw intervention from Goddard.
The audience is elated at the victorious home country heavyweight, who will end the night for the UK at 6-5. This is a massive comeback for Aspinall, who knows exactly what his next move is: he plans on attending UFC Paris in September to challenge the victor of the Ciryl Gane-Sergey Spivak headliner, and then he has his sights set on champion Jon Jones. The crowd laps it up, and roars with approval as it imagines the belt wrapping around the waist of the triumphant Aspinall. When that showdown in September comes, we will be here for it. We hope you are too.

The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Marcin Tybura R1 1:13 via TKO (Elbow and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lock picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Angelo is all-in on Tom Aspinall, believing he should dominate anywhere the fight goes. He acknowledges the knee injury concern but thinks Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ are superior. He calls Aspinall the most confident pick on the card and suggests him as a parlay piece with Molly McCann.

suggested as parlay piece with Molly McCann
"I'm all in on Tom aspinall here I think he's a solid parlay piece"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Big Brady picks Tom Aspinall to win by first-round knockout. He calls it a setup fight for Aspinall after his injury. He notes Tybura has been knocked out by Derrick Lewis and others, and questions his chin. He thinks Aspinall's speed and power will be too much, and Tybura's only path is to take Aspinall down or outlast him, which he doubts. He mentions Tybura looked skinny at the face-off.

first round knockout
"give me Tom aspinall Tom Aspen to win this fight by first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Cody acknowledges Aspinall is likely to win but sees value on Tybura at +380 due to Aspinall's knee injury and heavyweight volatility. He took a very small bet on Tybura, fully expecting to lose, but thinks the price is too high on Aspinall. He mentions that historically, plus money heavyweights have value.

small bet on Tybura moneyline at +380
"I took a little bit very very small bet of Marcin tibora plus 380. I'm prepared to look really really dumb"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Daniel picks Tom Aspinall to win, citing his speed, technical striking, and well-rounded game including takedowns and submissions. He notes that Aspinall represents the new wave of heavyweights and has a significant speed advantage over Tybura. However, he is concerned about the price at -475, calling it a 'sucker bet' and stating he lines Aspinall closer to -400. He also mentions the risk of freak injury given Aspinall's recent surgery. Despite the pick, he passes on betting due to poor value.

Daniel says the price is 'absolutely terrible' and that laying -475 to -500 is a 'sucker bet'. He lines Aspinall closer to -400 and passes on betting.
"I do think Tom's gonna win this fight but I mean I think that laying minus 475 to minus 500 here is a sucker bet"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

James picks Tom Aspinall to win by finish in round two. He acknowledges Aspinall's cardio is an unknown but notes that the only evidence of a cardio issue was the Arlovski fight where Aspinall seemed to have an adrenaline dump but still finished. He believes Aspinall is better than Tybura everywhere and that Tybura's only advantages are experience and potential cardio. James thinks Aspinall will be smarter this time and not steamroll in round one, but will get the finish in round two. He mentions that Tybura at +350 is the value side but he still favors Aspinall.

Tom Aspinall wins in round two
"I think he probably finishes tybora in round two and that's my prediction of the fire I've got time in round two"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The host picks Tom Aspinall, citing his speed, power, and ability to finish. He notes Tybura has been hurt early in fights before but that Aspinall is a better finisher than those opponents. He predicts a first-round stoppage and suggests targeting under 1.5 rounds.

under 1.5 rounds at -140/-150
"I think that early speed and power Advantage for Tom aspinel is going to be too much for tibura... I think it's going to end up with him getting his hand raised by a first round stoppage here"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

Paul picks Aspinall but notes the price is too high to bet straight. He suggests live betting Tybura after the first round if Aspinall gasses. He highlights Aspinall's speed, power, and BJJ, but also his cardio concerns and the knee injury. He would hedge if Aspinall is on a parlay.

suggests live betting Tybura after round 1
"I would take Tom maskman all here don't know if I end up putting them on the top ticket an option"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Tom Aspinall

The MMA Guru picks Tom Aspinall, calling it a logical pick. He criticizes Marcin Tybura's age and conditioning, and notes Tybura has no submission wins in the UFC. The Guru believes Aspinall has a massive advantage on the feet and on the ground, and predicts a finish in the first round, either by TKO or takedown. He also mentions Aspinall's year off and vengeance after surgery.

finish in first round
"I'm going with asper now I think it's a very logical pick"
Mick Parkin - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcin Tybura
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcin Tybura 0 61 of 155 39% 64 of 158 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:01
Mick Parkin 0 60 of 145 41% 102 of 192 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcin Tybura 0 21 of 56 37% 21 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
Mick Parkin 0 23 of 45 51% 24 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
2 Marcin Tybura 0 7 of 20 35% 10 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
Mick Parkin 0 15 of 38 39% 41 of 69 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:24
3 Marcin Tybura 0 33 of 79 41% 33 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:25
Mick Parkin 0 22 of 62 35% 37 of 77 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcin Tybura 61 of 155 39% 28 of 110 29 of 40 4 of 5 60 of 151 1 of 4 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 60 of 145 41% 47 of 130 1 of 2 12 of 13 49 of 118 2 of 2 9 of 25
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcin Tybura 21 of 56 37% 4 of 34 15 of 20 2 of 2 21 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 23 of 45 51% 13 of 34 1 of 1 9 of 10 22 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Marcin Tybura 7 of 20 35% 4 of 15 3 of 5 0 of 0 7 of 19 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 15 of 38 39% 15 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 12 1 of 1 9 of 25
3 Marcin Tybura 33 of 79 41% 20 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 3 32 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Mick Parkin 22 of 62 35% 19 of 58 0 of 1 3 of 3 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Mick Parkin vs. Marcin Tybura
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Parkin (-118), Tybura (-102)

Round 1
Marc Goddard gets his first assignment of the card for this heavyweight scrap. Parkin is working behind inside low kicks early. Tybura finds the range on a body kick. A left lands for Tybura. The Pole connects with a lead uppercut in an exchange. Parkin with another low kick, but Tybura answers with a combination and a front kick. Tybura backs his man up with an overhand left. A body kick for Tybura and Parkin responds with a leg kick. Parkin counters a low kick with a two-punch combo. Parkin lands a bodykick. Tybura ducks under a punch and secures a body lock, shoving Parkin into the cage. Parkin frees himself quickly. Tybura lands a left to the body. Parkin wades into the clinch and he pushes the Pole into the fence. Parkin backs off, alnding a lead hok. Tybura answers with a front kick down the middle. Tybura punches his way into the clinch and ends the round with a powerful takedown.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura

Round 2
Tybura charges forward, landing a left hook and a front kick. The Pole tries to initiate the clinch, but Parkin shoves him away and sticks a jab. A left gets through for Tybura. Parkin catches a kick and shoves Tybura to the mat. Parkin follows his foe to the mat and moves to side control. The Brit looks to trap Tybura in a crucifix, but Tybura escapes. Parkin is in half guard, working to create openings from above. Parkin maintains control and then begins with a barrage of right hands from top position. The crowd gets excited, sensing a finish, but Tybura is blocking a lot of these. Parkin maintains top position, but Tybura briefly threatens with a heel hook. Parkin shucks it off and dives back on top. Tybura scrambles up with about 1:45 to go in the round. A lead left hand gets through for Parkin, and he follows up with a straight right. Parkin forces the clinch against the fence and he drops down and dumps Tybura to the mat. Park is back in half guard. Tybura builds up to his knees and eventually stands. Tybura turns Parkin into the fence but isn’t able to do anything of note before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Parkin
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Parkin

Round 3
An uppercut gets through right away for Tybura. Tybura throws a left to the body. Both men look labored to start the round. It’s Tybura who connects with a left hook. Tybura counters a leg kick with a two punch combination. Tybura ducks and lands an overhand right. Another solid left for the Pole. Tybura gets the better of an exchange and he pumps his jab immediately after. Parkin finds the range on a solid right. Tybura lunges forward, throwing offnese and keeping Parkin on his heels. Parkin with another clean right hand. Tybura goes body-head. Parkin with a slow leg kick and Tybura lands a left as the Brit moves straight back. They clinch with about 30 seconds left and Tybura is looking for a single leg. Parkin stands on one leg and pops Tybura in the face with a series of rights before the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Tybura (29-28 Tybura)

The Official Result
Marcin Tybura def. Mick Parkin via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision
"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Connor picks Parkin based on a gut feeling that Parkin's jab and technical boxing will make Tybura uncomfortable and lead to a knockout. He notes Parkin is patient and not overly aggressive, which might prevent Tybura from setting up takedowns. However, Connor admits he has no faith in Parkin's ground game and calls it a gut pick.

"I just have this gut feeling that parkin living behind his jab can actually make tybora the kind of uncomfortable persistently uncomfortable that tybora just dies."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision
"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura as the smart pick, noting Tybura always gets hurt early but then finds a takedown and suffocates opponents with back control. He has no faith in Parkin's ground game. However, Zane acknowledges Parkin might sleep Tybura before grappling becomes a factor, calling it a gut pick.

"I'm just gonna pick marching to bora. I just think it's the smart pick."
KO (punches) R1 3:23 · UFC 304: Edwards vs. Muhammad 2 · Jul 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 1 34 of 52 65% 34 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Łukasz Brzeski 0 24 of 42 57% 26 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 34 of 52 65% 29 of 46 0 of 1 5 of 5 28 of 44 3 of 4 3 of 4
Łukasz Brzeski 24 of 42 57% 12 of 28 3 of 5 9 of 9 20 of 38 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.

"Mick Parkin one of the most confident picks on the card this fight's going to suck though"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.

"Give me Mick parin again probably by decision but who knows man maybe you see a new wrinkle to his game and he submits brusi late in the fight."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.

"I'm gonna go with Mick Park and that come out here here and uh outwork him like all these other guys have"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.

"Parkin will have like a at least a 30 pound on fighting I probably like a 40 pound advantage over breski... make it ugly."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.

"Michael Parkin is going to beat up on Lucas berski chew up his legs mix in the grappling when he needs to as well because his grappling is really underrated"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Ribas vs. Namajunas · Mar 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 57 of 167 34% 57 of 168 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 72 of 150 48% 72 of 150 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 15 of 48 31% 15 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 16 of 40 40% 16 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Mick Parkin 0 18 of 51 35% 18 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 20 of 41 48% 20 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Mick Parkin 0 24 of 68 35% 24 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Mohammed Usman 0 36 of 69 52% 36 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 57 of 167 34% 26 of 114 30 of 52 1 of 1 57 of 167 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 72 of 150 48% 37 of 109 4 of 4 31 of 37 71 of 149 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 15 of 48 31% 11 of 39 4 of 9 0 of 0 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 16 of 40 40% 6 of 27 0 of 0 10 of 13 16 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 18 of 51 35% 5 of 32 12 of 18 1 of 1 18 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 20 of 41 48% 9 of 27 2 of 2 9 of 12 20 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Mick Parkin 24 of 68 35% 10 of 43 14 of 25 0 of 0 24 of 68 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mohammed Usman 36 of 69 52% 22 of 55 2 of 2 12 of 12 35 of 68 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin because he is the more technical fighter with sharper striking and slightly better takedowns. He expects a boring, slow, sloppy heavyweight decision, possibly with a stoppage from Parkin via takedown and ground control. He will stay away from betting unless the over 1.5 rounds line is available, which he would hammer.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Mick is going to be the pick here I'm going to stay away from this unless we get a very lucky one and a half round line hopefully The Bookies say ah they're heavyweights one and a half then we'll …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady picks Mick Parkin, believing the fight will primarily be standing. He notes Parkin's striking looked good in his debut but was inconsistent against Kyle Machado. He thinks Parkin will land more strikes at range, while Usman has low volume and relies on power. Brady doubts Usman can knock out Parkin and expects a decision win for Parkin.

"I'm more so on the mick Parkin side... I'm taking Mick Park in here I'm taking to win this fight by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Parkin, citing his size, mobility, and superior boxing. He criticizes Usman's low output and lack of power. Cody believes Parkin will outwork Usman and win a decision.

"Mick Parkin is going to find a way to just at work him."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Mar 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

Daniel Vreeland leans toward Mohammed Usman, admiring his ability to find a way to win even in ugly fights. He notes Usman has power and wrestling, and can take Parkin down. He thinks Parkin is the cleaner striker but Usman's physicality and grit could carry him.

"I'm gonna lean towards the dog here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Parkin has a great gas tank for a heavyweight, good output, and excellent scrambling ability. He will pressure Usman, who has a low-volume kickboxing style and tends to slow down late. Parkin can win by decision or even snatch a late submission, as Usman has been submitted before. Usman's only path is a flash KO, but Parkin should control the fight.

Round 3 submission at +3000
"I think Parkin is absolutely capable of doing that once again here and I think that we can see Parkin either cruise to a decision or I think he actually does snatch up a submission late in this fight which …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul picks Parkin, noting his training with Tom Aspinall and his ability to go the distance. He acknowledges the line movement toward Usman but still favors Parkin's overall game.

"Parkin Parkin is the pick for me as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Mohammed Usman

The MMA Guru picks Mohammed Usman over Mick Parkin, citing Parkin's poor last performance where he arguably lost and looked bad. He believes Usman's athleticism and wrestling will wear on Parkin as the fight goes on, with Usman landing takedowns in rounds two and three. He notes Parkin's eye swelling in his last fight and thinks Usman's power and pressure will be too much. He predicts a decision win for Usman.

decision win
"I'm actually gonna go with Muhammad Usman over Mick Parkin... I think mosman's going to be able to wear on Mick Parkin as the fight goes on... by decision"
WIN vs Caio Machado
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Allen vs. Craig · Nov 18, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 39 of 98 39% 69 of 139 3 of 10 30% 0 1 6:23
Caio Machado 0 76 of 132 57% 103 of 164 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 7 of 22 31% 11 of 30 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:45
Caio Machado 0 24 of 43 55% 34 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Mick Parkin 0 9 of 20 45% 35 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 1 3:32
Caio Machado 0 17 of 21 80% 34 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
3 Mick Parkin 0 23 of 56 41% 23 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:06
Caio Machado 0 35 of 68 51% 35 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 39 of 98 39% 33 of 91 2 of 3 4 of 4 34 of 92 3 of 3 2 of 3
Caio Machado 76 of 132 57% 41 of 95 24 of 26 11 of 11 68 of 121 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 7 of 22 31% 4 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Caio Machado 24 of 43 55% 8 of 27 10 of 10 6 of 6 21 of 39 3 of 4 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 2 of 3
Caio Machado 17 of 21 80% 14 of 17 1 of 2 2 of 2 12 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2
3 Mick Parkin 23 of 56 41% 20 of 52 1 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 54 2 of 2 0 of 0
Caio Machado 35 of 68 51% 19 of 51 13 of 14 3 of 3 35 of 66 0 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 12, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo has a slight lean towards Mick Parkin because he can wrestle if needed, but he is very hesitant due to the wide odds (-330) and Parkin's unproven status. He notes Machado has more power and volume, and that the odds scare him. He advises passing or taking the underdog.

Odds comment: odds are way too wide, minus 330; suggests going underdog or passing
"the slightest of slight slight leans probably towards Mick because he can wrestle if he needs to but unproven and I can't spend my money on that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady thinks Parkin will stick to the outside and be the better striker across 15 minutes, similar to his fight against Jamal Pogues. He finds the line a bit crazy but believes Parkin is the better fighter and should win a very uneventful heavyweight decision. He's not fully convinced in Parkin yet but expects him to get the job done.

"I do think he should go out there and be able to to beat Kyle Machado here I think he's the better fighter and I think he should win this across three rounds"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Cody picks Mick Parkin, noting his better striking and wrestling. He acknowledges the heavy price but believes Parkin is more well-rounded. He mentions Machado's low level of competition and suspect cardio. Cody thinks Parkin can win by decision or TKO.

"I think Parkin's the more well-rounded guy he's got some better skills everywhere"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Parkin is a well-rounded heavyweight prospect with good striking output and grappling. He can win on the feet with volume or take the fight to the ground and grind out Machado. Machado has faced low-level competition and has been in trouble before. Parkin wins convincingly by decision, and over 1.5 rounds is a good prop.

over 1.5 rounds
"I think he wins this fight pretty uh convincingly and I think he gets it done by decision over one and a half not too bad of a line either"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 16, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Paul picks Parkin but is not enthusiastic due to the price. He notes Machado's weak competition and Parkin's improvement. Paul thinks Parkin is better everywhere but the line is too high for comfort.

"I think Parkin's the more well-rounded guy"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin to win by TKO in round two. He praises Parkin's boxing and forward pressure, noting his easy win over Jamal Pogues. He criticizes Machado's Contender Series performance against a passive opponent and believes Parkin's crisp boxing and calf kicks will overwhelm Machado. He also mentions Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall.

TKO round two
"I'm going to go Mick Parkin TKO round two I reckon is what's going to happen here."
WIN vs Jamal Pogues
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Aspinall vs. Tybura · Jul 22, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Mick Parkin 0 95 of 156 60% 98 of 159 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 36 of 135 26% 37 of 136 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Mick Parkin 0 32 of 50 64% 32 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 21 of 79 26% 22 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
2 Mick Parkin 0 19 of 34 55% 22 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 7 of 30 23% 7 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:56
3 Mick Parkin 0 44 of 72 61% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jamal Pogues 0 8 of 26 30% 8 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Mick Parkin 95 of 156 60% 37 of 94 16 of 20 42 of 42 92 of 151 3 of 5 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 36 of 135 26% 22 of 119 4 of 6 10 of 10 34 of 132 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Mick Parkin 32 of 50 64% 12 of 30 2 of 2 18 of 18 32 of 48 0 of 2 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 21 of 79 26% 13 of 71 1 of 1 7 of 7 20 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Mick Parkin 19 of 34 55% 5 of 17 3 of 6 11 of 11 17 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 7 of 30 23% 5 of 27 1 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Mick Parkin 44 of 72 61% 20 of 47 11 of 12 13 of 13 43 of 71 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jamal Pogues 8 of 26 30% 4 of 21 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 26 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jul 16, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Angelo picks Jamal Pogues because he is faster and busier, and his offensive wrestling should be effective. However, he is concerned about Pogues' takedown defense and Mick Parkin's ability to get on top. He fades betting on this fight due to the uncertainty.

"I am going to pick Jamal here but I'm gonna fade this with bets because I don't trust the takedown defense of Jamal Pogues"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jul 18, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Big Brady picks Mick Parkin to finish Jamal Pogues, but admits it's a shot in the dark. He notes Parkin is untested but looks good against weak competition and trains with high-level guys like Tom Aspinall. He is not high on Pogues, who he thinks looked out of shape in his last fight. He says Parkin could be the real deal or a fraud.

by knockout
"give me parking to win this fight I'm gonna say he finishes Pogues at some point whether it's a knockout whether it's a submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Cody picks Pogues, citing his experience and better competition. He notes Parkin has fought low-level opponents and his cardio is unknown. He thinks Pogues's wrestling and top control will be enough to win a decision.

"it's Pogues pretty clearly here"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Daniel picks Jamal Pogues, citing his athleticism and takedown ability, which he showed in his UFC debut against Josh Parisian. He acknowledges Mick Parkin has handled lower-level competition but thinks Pogues' experience and wrestling will be the difference. He admits he has been waiting to fade Pogues but was impressed by his debut. He is not confident enough to bet it, saying 'no conviction here'.

Daniel says he is not betting this fight. He mentions the line: Pogues -160, Parkin +140.
"I'm gonna pick him for that reason but I'm not betting it so you know no no conviction here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host picks Mick Parkin as a dog, citing his athleticism, scrambling, striking speed, and overall grappling. He believes Parkin's cardio and ability to reverse positions will be key as the fight goes longer. He predicts Parkin wins inside the distance and calls him one of the better underdogs on the card.

inside the distance
"give me parking and park into an inside the distance and probably one of the better underdogs on the card in my opinion"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 19, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jamal Pogues

Paul initially considered Parkin as a dog but settled on Pogues due to experience. He thinks Pogues's wrestling and top control will wear down Parkin, who has never fought past the first round. He notes Pogues's low volume but expects him to win.

"I ended up just going towards Jamal Pogues who I think he's got a lot more experience is the better fighter"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin as an underdog, initially unsure but swayed by Jamal Pogues' unimpressive performance against Josh Parisian. He notes Parkin's training with Tom Aspinall and good get-ups, and believes Parkin's youth and strength will allow him to get back up from takedowns. The Guru expects Parkin to be tougher in the pocket and win a decision.

"I'm actually going to go with Mick Parkin as an underdog here"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

Angelo picks Mick Parkin, going against his bias for wrestlers. He notes Tybura's chin is fading after being wobbled in recent fights, but questions whether Parkin has one-punch knockout power. He thinks if Tybura can't get takedowns, he's in trouble, and Parkin's pace and control could be the difference. He admits it's a gut pick.

"I'm going to go with my gut... and I'm picking Mick Parkin"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Brady is taking the underdog Tybura, questioning what a Mick Parkin win looks like. He notes Parkin's wins are against low-level competition and that he was outlanded by Kyle Machado. Brady thinks Tybura can win a close fight on the feet or dominate on top, and predicts a decision win.

Tybura by decision
"I'm going to take the underdog here and Marchin tabber to win this fight and I'm going to take him to win this fight by decision"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Mick Parkin

Connor picks Parkin based on a gut feeling that Parkin's jab and technical boxing will make Tybura uncomfortable and lead to a knockout. He notes Parkin is patient and not overly aggressive, which might prevent Tybura from setting up takedowns. However, Connor admits he has no faith in Parkin's ground game and calls it a gut pick.

"I just have this gut feeling that parkin living behind his jab can actually make tybora the kind of uncomfortable persistently uncomfortable that tybora just dies."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The host notes that the UFC has brought Parkin along slowly, and now he faces a tough veteran. Parkin's athletic advantages in striking and grappling will be too much for the aging Tybura, leading to a late finish or decision win.

finish late in the fight or decision
"I think Parkin's athletic advantages here from his striking advantage to even some grappling that people have yet to see will be too much for the aging Tyboro to deal with."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Mick Parkin

The Guru is confident in Mick Parkin, praising his conditioning, patience, and well-rounded game. He notes that Tybura has beaten many heavyweights who rush for a finish, but Parkin is patient and won't make that mistake. He expects Parkin to chop at the legs, stay composed, and win a 29-28 decision, as he has seen Parkin answer grappling questions that other Tybura opponents could not.

decision 29-28
"I'm going with Mick Parkin guys Mick Parkin's going to get this one done"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Mar 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Marcin Tybura

Zane picks Tybura as the smart pick, noting Tybura always gets hurt early but then finds a takedown and suffocates opponents with back control. He has no faith in Parkin's ground game. However, Zane acknowledges Parkin might sleep Tybura before grappling becomes a factor, calling it a gut pick.

"I'm just gonna pick marching to bora. I just think it's the smart pick."