UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025 · Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady Next Fight
Age 26
Height 5' 4"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 25
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Lone'er Kavanagh
4.13 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
3.49 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
1.12 TD Avg
45.0% TD Acc.
94.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Felipe dos Santos
3.75 SLpM
39.0% Str. Acc.
3.8 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
0.0 TD Avg
0.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
0.5 Sub. Avg
Lone'er Kavanagh
Moneyline
DraftKings -245
KO/TKO
FanDuel +370
Submission
FanDuel +2300
Decision
FanDuel -110
Felipe dos Santos
Moneyline
Caesars +225
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1400
Submission
BetWay +1200
Decision
BetRivers +410
Lone'er Kavanagh - Fight History
SCHED vs Brandon Royval
UFC 329 · Jul 11, 2026
Decision R5 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Kavanagh · Feb 28, 2026
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Brandon Moreno 0 79 of 168 47% 134 of 229 0 of 8 0% 0 0 7:20
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 97 of 205 47% 136 of 245 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Brandon Moreno 0 19 of 40 47% 19 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 45 40% 18 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Brandon Moreno 0 24 of 54 44% 24 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 42 of 83 50% 42 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Brandon Moreno 0 16 of 40 40% 31 of 56 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:21
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 17 of 44 38% 20 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
4 Brandon Moreno 0 9 of 15 60% 31 of 42 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:08
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 8 of 14 57% 29 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
5 Brandon Moreno 0 11 of 19 57% 29 of 37 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:51
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 12 of 19 63% 27 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Brandon Moreno 79 of 168 47% 51 of 133 15 of 21 13 of 14 69 of 154 10 of 14 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 97 of 205 47% 60 of 160 18 of 24 19 of 21 92 of 198 5 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Brandon Moreno 19 of 40 47% 14 of 34 3 of 4 2 of 2 19 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 45 40% 10 of 33 3 of 7 5 of 5 18 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Brandon Moreno 24 of 54 44% 13 of 40 6 of 9 5 of 5 23 of 53 1 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 42 of 83 50% 30 of 70 5 of 6 7 of 7 39 of 78 3 of 5 0 of 0
3 Brandon Moreno 16 of 40 40% 13 of 35 2 of 4 1 of 1 16 of 39 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 17 of 44 38% 11 of 37 5 of 5 1 of 2 17 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
4 Brandon Moreno 9 of 15 60% 5 of 10 1 of 1 3 of 4 5 of 8 4 of 7 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 8 of 14 57% 4 of 8 1 of 2 3 of 4 7 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Brandon Moreno 11 of 19 57% 6 of 14 3 of 3 2 of 2 6 of 14 5 of 5 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 12 of 19 63% 5 of 12 4 of 4 3 of 3 11 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Angelo hesitantly picks Brandon Moreno, acknowledging that Lone'er Kavanagh is fast and accurate and could give Moreno trouble early. He notes Moreno's five-round experience and toughness as key advantages, expecting him to outlast Kavanagh who may fade. He admits if it were a three-round fight with a full camp, he would pick Kavanagh.

Says he wouldn't be comfortable parlaying Moreno at almost three to one.
"I'm going to pick Moreno. I think he can just literally outlast Loner. But if this was a three round fight with a full fight camp, I'd be picking Loner Kavanaaugh right now."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Big Brady picks Brandon Moreno, citing his hometown advantage, experience as a former champion, and step down in competition. He notes Kavanagh looked good in the first round against Charles Johnson but faded and got knocked out. Brady believes Moreno's cardio, pressure, and minute-winning ability will lead to a decision win, possibly a late finish if Kavanagh slows down.

decision
"Give me Brandon Moreno to win this fight and win it by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Cody points out Moreno's recent stylistic changes, lack of wrestling, and potential decline. He highlights Kavanagh's speed and power, and the danger of an early knockout. Despite these concerns, he picks Moreno due to the difficulty of betting against him, but strongly advises live betting or hedging.

"I will take Mareno just where whereas the narrative seems to be it's all Moreno and this is an easy fight... I think that there's some very real danger."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Connor agrees with Zane that Moreno should win, but he is slightly less confident due to Moreno's recent inconsistent performances. He notes that Moreno sometimes makes weird mistakes and that Kavanagh is a dangerous counterpuncher with speed and accuracy. However, Connor ultimately believes Moreno's experience and ability to pressure will be too much for Kavanagh, especially given Kavanagh's stamina concerns.

Kavanagh's counterpunching threat; Moreno's occasional weird mistakes; altitude factor
"I am forced to agree."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Feb 20, 2024 (739 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Daniel picks Brandon Moreno to win, citing his well-rounded skills and fight IQ. He notes Moreno's takedown advantage against Royval's poor takedown defense, but acknowledges Royval's danger on the feet with unorthodox strikes. He expects Moreno to exploit takedown defense and control the fight on the ground, though he warns that Moreno has been dropped in recent fights.

"I think Brandon Moreno should get this one done too well-rounded and especially if he comes out here smart exploits that takedown defense of royval"
DI
Diary of a Pro Gambler Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The host is betting on Moreno despite his decline, because the circumstances heavily favor him. Moreno has experience fighting in Mexico City, excellent cardio, and has never been knocked out. Kavanagh is inexperienced (10 pro fights), a volume striker with no knockout power, and is fighting on short notice at high altitude. The host believes Kavanagh would need to finish Moreno or win a clear decision, both unlikely. He plans to parlay Moreno with Zellhuber.

Parlaying him with Daniel Zellhuber.
"I am happy to bet Moreno at big favorite odds here. He is on a decline. There's no doubt about it. But the probability of Kavanaaugh going to Mexico City on short notice with only 10 pro fights and getting …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2026 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

James believes Kavanagh is one of the best flyweights despite his loss to Charles Johnson, citing his speed, footwork, and counter-striking. He questions Moreno's consistency and recent performance, noting Moreno's age and potential decline. James sees value in Kavanagh at +210 odds, predicting Moreno may not push the pace needed to exploit Kavanagh's cardio concerns.

"I'm going to say that Lona Kavanaaugh is the value side here. I'm going to say Lona Cavanar is the winner of this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2026 (4 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

The host picks Brandon Moreno inside the distance, expecting a round 4 or 5 finish. He notes Moreno's experience, cardio, and durability, and believes Kavanagh will fade in the later rounds due to altitude and short notice. He is surprised the line moved to -225 and considers it a great value. He predicts a late TKO or submission.

"Give me Brandon Moreno uh round four or five, TKO, maybe even submission."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 25, 2026 (3 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Paul acknowledges Moreno's experience and cardio advantage, especially at altitude. He notes Moreno's wrestling and submission game are superior, and expects Moreno to take over in later rounds. He is puzzled by the money coming in on Kavanagh and recommends Moreno as a parlay piece, but suggests live betting for better value.

"I think Moreno's got the better wrestling and he's got the better submission game, and I think he's got the better cardio."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 28, 2026 (fight day)
Brandon Moreno

The MMA Guru picks Brandon Moreno, noting that Lone'er Kavanagh has a cardio issue and gasses after about 7 minutes. He argues that Moreno is hard to finish early and that Kavanagh's only path to victory is a first-round TKO, which is unlikely at Mexico City altitude. He predicts a late-rounds TKO for Moreno, possibly in rounds 4 or 5.

round four or five TKO
"I'm going to go with Brandon Moreno round four or five TKO."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Feb 26, 2026 (2 days before fight)
Brandon Moreno

Zane picks Moreno because Kavanagh is not ready for this level of competition, especially on short notice and at altitude. He notes that Kavanagh's gas tank was a problem against Charles Johnson, and Moreno's experience and ability to set a comfortable tempo will likely overwhelm him. Zane also mentions that Moreno has a reach advantage and is fighting at home, which should help him make better decisions.

Kavanagh's gas tank issues at altitude; Moreno's reach advantage; Kavanagh on three weeks notice; first five-round fight for Kavanagh
"I have to pick Moreno. It's an opportunity for Kavanaugh. Like, I get why both men took this fight."
LOSS vs Charles Johnson
KO R2 4:35 · UFC Fight Night: Walker vs. Zhang · Aug 23, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Johnson 1 44 of 81 54% 52 of 89 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:32
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 59 of 120 49% 60 of 121 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Johnson 0 14 of 25 56% 14 of 25 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 36 of 65 55% 37 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Johnson 1 30 of 56 53% 38 of 64 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:22
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 23 of 55 41% 23 of 55 1 of 2 50% 1 1 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Johnson 44 of 81 54% 18 of 49 6 of 10 20 of 22 37 of 71 4 of 6 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 59 of 120 49% 32 of 83 21 of 26 6 of 11 53 of 111 6 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Johnson 14 of 25 56% 3 of 11 2 of 4 9 of 10 14 of 24 0 of 1 0 of 0
Lone'er Kavanagh 36 of 65 55% 17 of 37 14 of 18 5 of 10 34 of 63 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Charles Johnson 30 of 56 53% 15 of 38 4 of 6 11 of 12 23 of 47 4 of 5 3 of 4
Lone'er Kavanagh 23 of 55 41% 15 of 46 7 of 8 1 of 1 19 of 48 4 of 7 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Aug 17, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh but is hesitant, noting that Charles Johnson is a friend of the show and a good fighter. He praises Kavanagh's speed, power, and ability to transition to wrestling instantly. He thinks the odds are too wide and that Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog. He says he'll be rooting for Johnson but thinks Kavanagh probably gets it done due to speed and volume.

Odds are -200 for Kavanagh; Angelo thinks Johnson is not a 2-to-1 underdog.
"Loner Kavanaaugh is probably the pick just given all the other circumstances."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Lone'er Kavanagh to win a close decision, noting that Kavanagh is a real prospect with power and takedown ability. He criticizes Charles Johnson for consistently losing first rounds and being takedown-prone. He believes Kavanagh will win rounds one and two, while Johnson may take round three, leading to a decision for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"I'm going Kavanaaugh to win a close decision in this one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 21, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host notes that Kavanagh is usually at super chalky odds but here at -180, it's a great entry point. He thinks Johnson may not have the power to get Kavanagh's respect, and while Johnson may have an advantage in output and volume, Kavanagh should mix martial arts well with power strikes, speed, and takedowns to win on the scorecards.

odds comment: -180 is a great entry point
"We're so used to seeing Kavanaaugh at super chalky odds, but here at minus 180. I think this is a great entry point against a guy in Charles Johnson who may not have the power to get the respect from …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 22, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Charles Johnson

The MMA Guru picks Charles Johnson to win by decision as an underdog (+170). He believes Johnson's experience and ability to survive and push the pace will be key. He notes that Kavanagh struggled in close fights against Jose Ochoa and Felipe dos Santos, and that Johnson is hard to outgrapple effectively. He expects Johnson to have a strong third round and win a close decision, though he acknowledges Kavanagh could land a knockout.

Charles Johnson by decision; underdog +170
"Charles Johnson's going to get the upset win in my opinion. He's an underdog. He's plus 170."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 58 of 97 59% 71 of 112 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:33
Felipe dos Santos 0 51 of 104 49% 92 of 147 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Felipe dos Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 23 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 29 of 51 56% 42 of 66 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:36
Felipe dos Santos 0 25 of 36 69% 45 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:18
Felipe dos Santos 0 11 of 36 30% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 58 of 97 59% 37 of 71 11 of 15 10 of 11 29 of 56 3 of 6 26 of 35
Felipe dos Santos 51 of 104 49% 28 of 67 9 of 21 14 of 16 28 of 77 4 of 4 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 11 of 23 47% 1 of 12 2 of 3 8 of 8 10 of 19 1 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 15 of 32 46% 3 of 12 5 of 12 7 of 8 13 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 29 of 51 56% 25 of 45 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 23 of 30
Felipe dos Santos 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 15 of 18
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 23 78% 11 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 5
Felipe dos Santos 11 of 36 30% 7 of 28 1 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

"ultimately I'm going to pick him cuz he's just so damn fast"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"give me lonni Kavanagh here I do think Felipe dos Santos is very tough ... so I'll say it's a lonni Kavanagh by decision win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

late finish or decision
"Kavanagh is one of the hottest prospects to come out of the UK in a while and I think that he'll be able to showcase those chops here against dos Santos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Lona kavana over Felipe dos Santos I think Lona kavar would smoke Victor Al Morana"
WIN vs Jose Ochoa
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Figueiredo · Nov 23, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 51 of 126 40% 51 of 126 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 50 of 158 31% 59 of 168 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 21 of 45 46% 21 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 19 of 44 43% 19 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 46 39% 18 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 20 of 60 33% 29 of 70 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:33
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 12 of 35 34% 12 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jose Ochoa 0 11 of 54 20% 11 of 54 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 51 of 126 40% 24 of 74 12 of 28 15 of 24 50 of 124 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 50 of 158 31% 13 of 78 13 of 40 24 of 40 49 of 156 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 21 of 45 46% 6 of 21 4 of 10 11 of 14 21 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 19 of 44 43% 3 of 19 2 of 6 14 of 19 19 of 44 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 46 39% 9 of 28 7 of 11 2 of 7 17 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 20 of 60 33% 7 of 29 6 of 20 7 of 11 19 of 58 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 12 of 35 34% 9 of 25 1 of 7 2 of 3 12 of 34 0 of 1 0 of 0
Jose Ochoa 11 of 54 20% 3 of 30 5 of 14 3 of 10 11 of 54 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Lone'er Kavanagh vs. Jose Ochoa

Round 1
A pair of unbeaten newcomers with seven wins apiece meet in hopes of keeping their spotless records intact. The prospects of Kavanagh (7-0, 0-0 UFC) are high, with many calling for him to get a call up to the big leagues after wiping out Davide Scarano with a spinning back kick in 2023. It took a bit longer than he expected, but he made it, and he meets Ochoa (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC). While the Brit has heard the final bell in the past, Ochoa has never even fought into the third round. Referee Mark Craig will have his hands full with these flyweights for as long as it goes. They share a sporting glove touch to get started, and Kavanagh strikes first with a low kick. Kavanagh parries the jabs Ochoa is setting up, ignoring a stomping kick to his knees so he can work his way in. Kavanagh has to hop back to block a head kick, and he presses forward with a push kick. Ochoa chops at the lead leg with a kick, and Kavanagh responds in kind. A head kick buzzes past Ochoa’s face in the blink of an eye, with the Peruvian looking at it with bemusement. Kavanagh chips at the front leg, and Ochoa does the same as they do not set up much else. Kavanagh nails the lead leg with a kick that makes Ochoa recoil it, and he dodges a counter right over the top when loosing a body kick. Kavanagh blocks a front kick and whiffs with a head kick, and he sees Ochoa come barreling towards him and blonks him on the head with a right hook. The Peruvian wears it well and lets fly a head kick that is blocked, with the two going tit-for-tat against one another. Ochoa connects with two leg kicks, and the crowd starts wooing as it is not entertained. Both fighters come up short on power strikes, with Kavanagh eventually reaching with a leg kick and then one to the ribs. Kavanagh closes in when Ochoa attempts a spinning back fist, and he chews up the inside and outside of Ochoa’s right leg with kicks. Ochoa goes wide with a haymaker, and Kavanagh slips the strikes and responds with a left hook that cuts Ochoa’s right eye. In a flurry of strikes, a Kavanagh kick does not find the right area and instead blasts Ochoa square in the family jewels. Ochoa walks off in pain, and Kavanagh knows what he did and apologizes. Craig calls time and tells Ochoa he has plenty of time to recover, and Ochoa is not having a good time right now. It takes over a minute for Ochoa to stand up, and he asks for a chance to wipe his bloodied eye that is cut on the lid. After 90 seconds, Ochoa is good to go, and they share a glove touch to restart. Kavanagh reintroduces himself with two more accurate leg kicks, and he allows Ochoa to kick him so he can plant a capoeira kick on his ribs. An Ochoa kick appears to go low, but Kavanagh waves it off and they trade front kicks. A clean Ochoa front kick drives Kavanagh back, and Kavanagh rushes at him swinging two hooks and a kick before the horn sounds. 10-9 Kavanagh.

Round 2
The fighters share a glove touch to get going in Round 2, with Kavanagh twirling about when not committing entirely to a leg kick. He instead aims one to the side, and he leans back when Ochoa’s feet fly past his face. Ochoa scores a Mortal Kombat-inspired sweep kick to the low leg, and Kavanagh no-sells it and responds with a head kick. Kavanagh chambers and fires a slapping leg kick, hoping to set up a high kick but Ochoa is wise to the latter. Ochoa keeps his hands dangerously low as he prods out with front kicks, and he sways back when Kavanagh kicks at him. Kavanagh scores a right hand, has a kick roll off his shoulder and prepares to fire off a counter. The right hand that comes from the Brit puts Ochoa on his seat, and Ochoa, grinning the whole time, climbs back to his feet. Ochoa attacks the front leg repeatedly, landing three or four until Kavanagh lets fly a booming body kick. Ochoa’s kicks keep his man at safe range until Kavanagh gets sick of waiting and lunges to blaze him with a right and then a huge left hook. Ochoa wants to engage, smiling all the while, and he absorbs a powerful left hand that makes him smile and bleed. Kavanagh’s poker face never changes as he unleashes kicks to the body and front leg, and Ochoa splits the distance and delivers a clean body shot. Ochoa chains and fires a few flashy strikes together that all miss, and he tries a capoeira kick that comes up short. Kavanagh stays composed and dings him with a left hook to draw more blood, and his leg kick keeps battering the front leg. Ochoa splits the guard with a front kick, and this makes Kavanagh bite down on his mouthpiece to engage. Ochoa appears to get the better of the exchange, hurting the former Cage Warriors fighter with a long series of punches. Ochoa changes the strikes to body shots, lowering Kavanagh to the floor until Kavanagh shoots desperately. The Peruvian jumps around to take the back, and he hunts for a rear-naked choke while on his foe’s back. Kavanagh leans against the fence to survive the submission, with the horn ending the round. 10-9 Ochoa.

Round 3
The fighters reach the final frame and clap hands, and it could be all tied up or Kavanagh could be ahead. No matter the score, the competitors get to business before long. Legs fly from both sides, with Ochoa picking and poking with kicks high and low, and his body kick draws a reaction out of his man. With Ochoa selling out for kicks, Kavanagh times a left hand that drops Ochoa. Kavanagh does not go wild for long, letting Ochoa have it but paying attention to when the jump knee inevitably comes at him. Ochoa gathers himself and beats on the body with kicks, and Kavanagh returns fire with two that leave mean looking welts on Ochoa’s waist. Kavanagh lunges with a left hook, and he nails the front leg with a kick. Ochoa digs a left to head and right to the body, and Kavanagh pays him back with a short but fierce combination. Ochoa tries to sweep the leg dramatically, and this time it is way short and the crowd boos him. The two crash together with offense, as Ochoa tries a head kick while too close. Kavanagh slips a huge punch to escape from harm, hand-fighting and letting loose with a head kick. Ochoa shrugs at him and belts him with a low kick. Ochoa chases Kavanagh down, walking into a jump knee as he spins with a back fist that bangs into the chest. Kavanagh strafes to the side, avoiding a hook kick and a head kick with active movement. Ochoa’s kicks miss again and again, resulting in Ochoa shrugging at him. Kavanagh wraps a head kick around the guard, and they both land with their fists. Ochoa steps in with a knee, and he gets countered with a left over the top and has a head kick graze his chin. Ochoa walks Kavanagh down without fear, kicking his way into a single-leg takedown attempt that fails. Kavanagh intercepts a kick to blast Ochoa in the face with a right hand, and he spins with a wheel kick that connects cleanly. The two fighters hug it out, and Kavanagh hits a back flip just because he can. 10-9 Kavanagh (29-28 Kavanagh).

The Official Result
Lone'er Kavanagh def. Jose Ochoa via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and raw power. He believes Kavanagh's high-level training and speed will be the difference, as Ochoa will struggle to see shots coming. He notes both are finishers and suggests an under on round lines could be a play.

under on round lines could be a sneaky good play
"his speed is the difference his High Level Training will be the difference"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Big Brady picks Kavanagh to win by decision. He acknowledges the hype on Kavanagh from his contender series knockout but notes Jose Ochoa is dangerous with power. He believes Kavanagh has more ways to win with better tools on the feet and ground, and can mix in takedowns. He expects a back-and-forth war that goes the distance with Kavanagh getting his hand raised.

"I'll take Kavanaugh to win this fight I think it's going to be one of those back and forth Wars where it somehow ends up going the distance and I think it's Kavanagh that gets his hand raised"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Cody picks Kavanagh confidently, calling him a top prospect with dynamic striking and grappling. He notes that Ochoa is a tough Peruvian brawler but lacks the technical skills to hang with Kavanagh. He expects Kavanagh to win by knockout, possibly early, and sees him as a top ticket play.

"I got Kavanaugh kav's probably on my top ticket for being real I think he I think he smokes him"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Daniel Vreeland praises both fighters as studs but gives the edge to Kavanagh due to being more seasoned and having fought higher-level competition. He notes that Ochoa is impressive and could be a top prospect soon, but Kavanagh's experience and maturity make him the pick. However, he mentions he would bet on Ochoa as an underdog due to the value.

"pure pick I'll take Lan Kavanagh because of the experience the maturity all that but if I'm gonna bet this fight I'm Gonna Roll the Dice on this kid Ooa at plus 290 plus 300"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 20, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Paul agrees, noting Kavanagh's footwork and power are on another level. He acknowledges Ochoa's toughness but thinks Kavanagh's technique will be too much. He expects a dominant performance and is comfortable laying the chalk.

"I'm glad it's early because if I'm going to lose my shirt it may be rebuild"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 21, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The MMA Guru is high on Lone'er Kavanagh, describing him as a savage with nasty combos and highlight-reel finishes. He notes Kavanagh has faced tougher competition, with his last three opponents having a combined record of 16-0. He believes Kavanagh's power at flyweight and good takedown defense will be key, and predicts a TKO win in round one or two. He thinks it would take a gritty veteran to beat Kavanagh.

TKO early, round one or two
"I'm going Lo Lona kavar getting this one done by TKO early in the fight I'll say round one or two"
Felipe dos Santos - Fight History
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Edwards vs. Brady · Mar 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lone'er Kavanagh 0 58 of 97 59% 71 of 112 4 of 6 66% 0 0 6:33
Felipe dos Santos 0 51 of 104 49% 92 of 147 0 of 3 0% 1 0 0:56
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 11 of 23 47% 11 of 23 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:39
Felipe dos Santos 0 15 of 32 46% 23 of 40 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:43
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 29 of 51 56% 42 of 66 2 of 3 66% 0 0 3:36
Felipe dos Santos 0 25 of 36 69% 45 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 0 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:18
Felipe dos Santos 0 11 of 36 30% 24 of 49 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lone'er Kavanagh 58 of 97 59% 37 of 71 11 of 15 10 of 11 29 of 56 3 of 6 26 of 35
Felipe dos Santos 51 of 104 49% 28 of 67 9 of 21 14 of 16 28 of 77 4 of 4 19 of 23
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lone'er Kavanagh 11 of 23 47% 1 of 12 2 of 3 8 of 8 10 of 19 1 of 4 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 15 of 32 46% 3 of 12 5 of 12 7 of 8 13 of 30 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Lone'er Kavanagh 29 of 51 56% 25 of 45 3 of 4 1 of 2 5 of 20 1 of 1 23 of 30
Felipe dos Santos 25 of 36 69% 18 of 27 3 of 4 4 of 5 8 of 16 2 of 2 15 of 18
3 Lone'er Kavanagh 18 of 23 78% 11 of 14 6 of 8 1 of 1 14 of 17 1 of 1 3 of 5
Felipe dos Santos 11 of 36 30% 7 of 28 1 of 5 3 of 3 7 of 31 0 of 0 4 of 5
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

"ultimately I'm going to pick him cuz he's just so damn fast"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"give me lonni Kavanagh here I do think Felipe dos Santos is very tough ... so I'll say it's a lonni Kavanagh by decision win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

late finish or decision
"Kavanagh is one of the hottest prospects to come out of the UK in a while and I think that he'll be able to showcase those chops here against dos Santos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Lona kavana over Felipe dos Santos I think Lona kavar would smoke Victor Al Morana"
LOSS vs André Lima
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Burns vs. Brady · Sep 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
André Lima 0 38 of 76 50% 69 of 122 0 of 8 0% 0 0 0:41
Felipe dos Santos 0 18 of 37 48% 43 of 70 2 of 2 100% 2 0 9:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 André Lima 0 25 of 47 53% 30 of 53 0 of 6 0% 0 0 0:41
Felipe dos Santos 0 10 of 23 43% 13 of 26 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:47
2 André Lima 0 8 of 17 47% 16 of 28 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 6 of 9 66% 20 of 30 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:06
3 André Lima 0 5 of 12 41% 23 of 41 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 2 of 5 40% 10 of 14 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
André Lima 38 of 76 50% 14 of 45 14 of 19 10 of 12 33 of 68 5 of 7 0 of 1
Felipe dos Santos 18 of 37 48% 5 of 21 6 of 7 7 of 9 14 of 33 4 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 André Lima 25 of 47 53% 7 of 26 11 of 13 7 of 8 21 of 41 4 of 5 0 of 1
Felipe dos Santos 10 of 23 43% 2 of 13 1 of 1 7 of 9 9 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 André Lima 8 of 17 47% 4 of 11 3 of 4 1 of 2 7 of 15 1 of 2 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 6 of 9 66% 3 of 5 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 3 of 3 0 of 0
3 André Lima 5 of 12 41% 3 of 8 0 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Felipe dos Santos 2 of 5 40% 0 of 3 2 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Felipe dos Santos vs. Andre Lima
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Lima (-180), dos Santos (+150)

Round 1
Two promising young flyweights will try to take that next step to put their name in the large hat of contenders in the talent-rich division. Out of the vaunted Chute Boxe Diego Lima camp, dos Santos (8-1, 1 NC; 1-1 UFC) has his hair dyed in the customary blonde for the team and is ready for blood. Fellow countryman Lima (9-0, 2-0 UFC), who sports a neat hat walking to the cage, will be standing in his way putting his unbeaten record on the line. Referee Chris Tognoni will do his best to keep up with the two speedsters, and he clocks them in as they clap hands. Lima takes center stage and switches stances, and he hops back from a front kick aimed at his chest. Dos Santos aims kick to the side, and he lets fly three more kicks to varied targets before jumping in with a jab. Lima scores with a low kick but immediately has to deal with a counter body kick, and he dings his countryman with a left hand. Lima thumps a kick down low, and he scores an overhand right. As he backs off, he signals that he was poked in the eye. Tognoni sees it and calls time, telling Lima to take his time to recover and not hurry things. Tognoni tells dos Santos to be careful, and after 40 seconds, Lima is good to go. They resume where they left off, with Lima slowly advancing while working the front leg with a kick. Dos Santos darts in, misses, whiffs with a wheel kick and counters a right hand with his own right hook. Lima misses with a low kick, and he sees a front kick brush off his chest. Lima stalks his foe down and wings an elbow, and dos Santos ducks and ties him up while looking for a single. Lima leans back from a head kick, and he lines up a left hand while simultaneously dodging a spinning elbow. Lima’s flexibility is solid as he bends his back to dodge strikes, and he stomps out with a kick to the knee. Lima skirts away from the offense flying his way, seeing it coming while working his own weapons. A leg kick from Lima forces dos Santos to lift his limb up several times preemptively, and dos Santos spins with a back kick that bounces off the guard. As they scramble, dos Santos grabs hold of Lima from behind and trips him to the ground. Lima grabs the fence when standing up, and dos Santos is unable to mat return him due to the foul. Dos Santos leans and knees his opponent in the thigh, and he lifts Lima up a few times to chuck him to the floor. Lima slides out the back door after the second slam, where he twists around to claim top position and assume half guard. Dos Santos works to his feet, and Tognoni warns Lima to stop grabbing the cage. Dos Santos blasts Lima with a spinning elbow, and they both fall to the floor as time expires.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 dos Santos

Round 2
The Brazilians are primed and ready to brawl, with dos Santos letting kicks go when not throwing hands, while Lima walks him down with punches in bunches. Dos Santos gets off a front kick and chains it into a flying knee, catching Lima cleanly and forcing Lima to tie him up. The two jockey for position against the fence, and dos Santos breaks free thanks to his knees. They both paw out right hands, and dos Santos goes over the top with a high kick. Dos Santos shoots for a takedown, and Lima overwhelms him and throws him down to the mat. Lima passes easily to full mount, and dos Santos is frantic to defend himself from anything that comes at him. Lima elects to remain tightly pressed down on his opponent and considers an arm-triangle choke. Dos Santos defends the first effort, and when Lima turns to get a better bite at the apple, dos Santos protects against that attempt as well. Lima drops down a few right hands on the ear, and he presses his hand on dos Santos’ face and draws a warning from Tognoni. Dos Santos scoots his way to the side of the cage, but Lima remains in mount, smothering him in the position. Dos Santos keeps bucking and pushes off the wall with his foot, and Lima keeps stuck to his opponent so nullifyingly that Tognoni asks for more activity. The horn sounds with Lima not doing any appreciable damage from this position after over three minutes of control.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima

Round 3
Lima offers a glove touch that is accepted, and dos Santos backpedals quickly to find an angle of attack. Lima proceeds to walk him down, blocking quick strikes and using his legs to check kicks. As they engage, Lima complains about something, and Tognoni confusedly pauses the fight. Lima tries to use Tognoni’s sleeve to wipe something on it, and Tognoni has the interpreter find out what the nature of the stoppage was. It turns out Lima needed to blow his nose, and Tognoni tells him he cannot do that and restarts the fight. It takes a few seconds for dos Santos to level change in pursuit of a takedown, and like before, Lima ends as the one on top. Dos Santos turns to give up his back when Lima moves to mount, and Lima gladly accepts this position and wraps his legs around the waist with a body lock. Dos Santos is warned for grabbing the glove, and once more it is proved that Dundasso is the greatest base for MMA, above wrestling or any other martial art. Lima shrugs off the foul and latches onto a rear-naked choke, and his forearm slides beneath the chin. While the submission would normally elicit the tap from 95% of the roster, dos Santos fights the grip and frees his neck from danger. Lima adjusts his grip and sneaks it under the chin once more, and dos Santos’ face turns a brilliant shade of red but he does not give up. “Lipe Detona” manages to survive a nearly completed RNC a second time, and he hand-fights to prevent another choke from getting set up. Dos Santos is otherwise shut down, forced to occasionally punch behind his own head, and he irritates Lima enough with these strikes to make Lima lay flat on his back. Lima raises his arms to celebrate that he is about to win, and dos Santos’ remaining swings go wide. The fight comes to a conclusion.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Lima (30-27 Lima)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Lima (29-28 Lima)

The Official Result
Andre Lima def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 1, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos because he is a dangerous, aggressive fighter who is good everywhere, and he believes André Lima is overhyped after beating a weak opponent and winning by a bite. He notes that Felipe is a plus 165 underdog and he placed a half-unit bet when the odds opened at even money. He does not plan to double down despite the better odds.

Angelo placed a half-unit bet on Felipe dos Santos at even money when the odds first dropped.
"I like Felipe here everybody who watched my breakdown last week knows that I like Felipe"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos as the underdog to win by decision. He criticizes André Lima as a cheater and unimpressive, noting his close fights and split decision against Mitch Raposo. Brady believes dos Santos will make it a dogfight with volume advantage and sees a split decision. He also mentions a point deduction prop for Lima's cheating.

point deduction prop for André Lima
"I'm going to take the dog here and Felipe do Santos I think this one can go either way but one thing's for damn sure we're going to see Andre Lima grab the cage a couple we're going to see …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos, arguing that Lima's cardio is suspect and he has missed weight multiple times. He notes dos Santos' performance against Manel Kape and his ability to get up from takedowns. He sees value at plus money and expects dos Santos to win.

"I'm in on Felipe do Santos as well"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
André Lima

Daniel likes Lima's striking and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks he is the better fighter. He acknowledges concerns about Lima's cardio but isn't convinced they're valid. He notes that dos Santos leaves openings for body shots, calf kicks, and takedowns. He picks Lima to win, though he's not sure if it will be a finish.

"I think that Andre Lima is better than this guy so I'm gonna go Andre Lima here to get a win."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Dos Santos is an aggressive striker with a dangerous BJJ game, training with Charles Oliveira. Lima is undefeated but has shown defensive grappling vulnerabilities and has slowed in fights. Dos Santos can mix takedowns and pressure, potentially exposing Lima's back for a submission. The underdog pick is supported by a submission prop at +1300.

Felipe dos Santos by submission at +1300
"I think taking a little bit of a shot on dos Santos to win by submission at plus 1300 is not a bad way to go about it along with his plus 155 money line."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul likes dos Santos at plus money, citing his striking volume and cardio advantage. He notes Lima's cardio issues and weight misses, while dos Santos has proven he can go three rounds and land significant strikes. He believes dos Santos can win by decision or late finish.

"I think it's a def decent look what's your take here yeah I actually got to santz as well"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The MMA Guru picks Felipe dos Santos as an underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He notes dos Santos is gritty, young (23), and difficult to put away, as seen in his fight with Manel Kape. He worries about André Lima's split decision win over Mitch Raposo, who missed weight and stepped in on short notice. He believes if the fight gets scrappy, dos Santos will take over.

underdog pick
"I'm going to go with Felipe dos Santos he's the underdog I'm a little bit of 50/50 on this... I'm going Felipe dos Santos getting this one done"
Decision (split) (27–30, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Royval 2 · Feb 24, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Felipe dos Santos 0 40 of 74 54% 52 of 97 9 of 11 81% 0 0 5:02
Victor Altamirano 0 37 of 87 42% 62 of 120 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Felipe dos Santos 0 9 of 23 39% 14 of 36 6 of 7 85% 0 0 2:14
Victor Altamirano 0 6 of 21 28% 14 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Felipe dos Santos 0 13 of 22 59% 17 of 28 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:23
Victor Altamirano 0 14 of 35 40% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Felipe dos Santos 0 18 of 29 62% 21 of 33 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:25
Victor Altamirano 0 17 of 31 54% 23 of 40 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:51
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Felipe dos Santos 40 of 74 54% 7 of 33 23 of 31 10 of 10 29 of 62 10 of 10 1 of 2
Victor Altamirano 37 of 87 42% 24 of 66 8 of 16 5 of 5 31 of 73 5 of 11 1 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Felipe dos Santos 9 of 23 39% 2 of 11 4 of 9 3 of 3 7 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0
Victor Altamirano 6 of 21 28% 3 of 16 2 of 4 1 of 1 4 of 18 1 of 2 1 of 1
2 Felipe dos Santos 13 of 22 59% 1 of 10 7 of 7 5 of 5 7 of 16 5 of 5 1 of 1
Victor Altamirano 14 of 35 40% 8 of 26 3 of 6 3 of 3 12 of 27 2 of 6 0 of 2
3 Felipe dos Santos 18 of 29 62% 4 of 12 12 of 15 2 of 2 15 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 1
Victor Altamirano 17 of 31 54% 13 of 24 3 of 6 1 of 1 15 of 28 2 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 18, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Angelo picks Felipe dos Santos as the more dangerous fighter, citing his shootboxing style and aggression. He notes that both fighters are tough and coming off tough losses, but dos Santos' danger gives him the edge. He also mentions hoping for an over 1.5 rounds line.

over 1.5 rounds if available
"Felipe is going to be the pick I think he's the more dangerous fighter and because of that I am going to pick Felipe dos Santos to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Feb 19, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Big Brady picks Felipe dos Santos to win by decision, but notes the line is too high at -275. He acknowledges dos Santos looked good in his debut against Manel Kape but has red flags in his film, including poor takedown defense and get-up game. He thinks Altamirano can wrestle a bit but doesn't have much control, so the fight will play out on the feet where dos Santos has volume and variety. He also mentions that dos Santos is a Shooto Box guy arriving late to Mexico City, which is a concern.

Fight goes to decision
"give me felipia santz I do think this fight plays out closer than this line does indicate but know I think the volume the damage should be enough to get Felipe do Santos a decision win"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Cody picks dos Santos by submission at +600, having bet that prop. He notes dos Santos has a bunch of submission wins on the regional scene and Altamirano's takedown defense is suspect. He thinks dos Santos can exploit that and find a submission. He also mentions Altamirano has never been knocked out but has been submitted.

Felipe dos Santos by submission (+600)
"I took some plus 600 do Santos by sub here he subbed a bunch of guys on the regional scene"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 22, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

The host sees both fighters as similar but gives the edge to dos Santos due to his more aggressive approach. He expects dos Santos to utilize either a grapple-heavy or volume-heavy striking game with kicks and punches from distance to grind out a decision win.

"I think dos Santos is the guy that utilizes a way more aggressive approach which will ultimately get his hand raised in this matchup"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Felipe dos Santos

Paul picks dos Santos on the moneyline, though he thinks the price is a bit much. He notes dos Santos looked great against Manel Kape on short notice and has a full camp now. Altamirano is hittable and not durable. He expects dos Santos to win, possibly by knockout, though he hasn't bet it yet.

"I think he wins I think he should win but I wouldn't completely write ultimar off as having no chance"
LOSS vs Manel Kape
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 293: Adesanya vs. Strickland · Sep 10, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Manel Kape 1 112 of 182 61% 116 of 186 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:45
Felipe dos Santos 0 99 of 304 32% 101 of 310 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:08
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Manel Kape 1 36 of 55 65% 38 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:28
Felipe dos Santos 0 32 of 96 33% 32 of 96 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:08
2 Manel Kape 0 37 of 61 60% 37 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Felipe dos Santos 0 35 of 102 34% 35 of 103 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Manel Kape 0 39 of 66 59% 41 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:17
Felipe dos Santos 0 32 of 106 30% 34 of 111 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Manel Kape 112 of 182 61% 77 of 137 24 of 30 11 of 15 92 of 149 6 of 9 14 of 24
Felipe dos Santos 99 of 304 32% 53 of 215 28 of 60 18 of 29 94 of 292 4 of 8 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Manel Kape 36 of 55 65% 18 of 35 13 of 15 5 of 5 28 of 43 2 of 2 6 of 10
Felipe dos Santos 32 of 96 33% 13 of 65 13 of 20 6 of 11 31 of 92 1 of 4 0 of 0
2 Manel Kape 37 of 61 60% 26 of 46 7 of 8 4 of 7 32 of 53 3 of 6 2 of 2
Felipe dos Santos 35 of 102 34% 19 of 69 9 of 22 7 of 11 34 of 100 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Manel Kape 39 of 66 59% 33 of 56 4 of 7 2 of 3 32 of 53 1 of 1 6 of 12
Felipe dos Santos 32 of 106 30% 21 of 81 6 of 18 5 of 7 29 of 100 2 of 2 1 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Felipe dos Santos vs. Manel Kape
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Kape (-410), dos Santos (+320)

Round 1
The UFC lost a terrific flyweight matchup of Kape (18-6, 3-2 UFC) vs. Kai Kara-France due to the latter’s concussion issue, and it tried to make the most of a bad situation by shuttling in a fighter who was going to make his mark on the Contender Series a few weeks ago. Instead of an audition, dos Santos (7-0, 1 NC; 0-0 UFC) is thrust right into a pay-per-view main card, with the lights blindingly shining. A win for the Brazilian would be one for the ages as he would immediately jump into the rankings, but the hard-charging Kape will not go easy on him. Referee Greg Kleynjans takes charge of the cage for this “featured fight of the night,” and Kape is happy to still be fighting tonight so he offers a glove touch that is accepted. The two fighters clash together with immediate kicks, and Kape throws back with higher volume. The Brazilian wings a left hand over the top, and Kape gets stung but fires back with a vengeance. Kape connects with a low kick, and he gets knocked back with a jab. “Starboy” launches a rocket of a right hand that separates dos Santos from his balance, and Kape jumps on top of him and starts dropping strikes down until dos Santos throws his legs up for a desperation submission. Kape backs off to let him up, and he drives his fists into dos Santos’ dome a few more times to rock the newcomer once again. Dos Santos swings wild, and Kape is more composed and snipes him with a left hand. Kape paws out his jab and clips dos Santos on the way in with a short left, and when he kicks, dos Santos catches it. Kape tumbles to the mat, and as they scramble, Kape moves on top of him and busts him in the chops with several heavy punches. Kape gets pushed off and the two get back to striking, and dos Santos surprises the big favorite with a right hand and a knee up the middle. Kape is surprised but ready to keep attacking, and he walks into a front kick. Dos Santos is met with a leg kick, and he powers forward throwing hard but missing by a small margin. The Brazilian follows a jab with a head kick, and the two clinch up and start trading knees. Kape breaks with a big left hand, and dos Santos rolls with it and walks forward to swing with a haymaker. Kape times a spinning back elbow right on the dome, and the younger dos Santos eats it like a sandwich and keeps powering forward. Kape has a foot grabbed when kicking, and dos Santos tries to throw him down but Kape grabs the fence to stay upright. Kape muscles his man down to the mat, only to back off and keep trading. The two men get off power punches, and Kape scores a body kick and an elbow. Kape walks him down and smashes him in the face with a right hand, and dos Santos gives him one right back. A furious trading of fists ends the exciting round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 2
The flyweights do not race out of their corners this round, and instead dos Santos slowly wades forward reaching out with kicks. Kape slides out of the way of all of them, including a head kick that grazes his hair, and he returns fire with a low kick. When dos Santos commits to one in response, Kape drills him with a left hook. Dos Santos spams front kicks until charging forward with a right hook, and Kape takes the punches and counters, only to have his head snapped back with a right. Dos Santos kicks high as it bounces off the guard, and he spins with something but does not let it go. Instead, he settles down to fire off a right hand, and Kape trips him to the mat with a stern leg kick. Dos Santos climbs back up and connects with two low kicks, and he rushes forward and gets popped by a shovel uppercut of a right hand. Kape puts everything behind a right hand, and dos Santos slips it and counters, and Kape keeps his head movement active as well to make for an exciting near-miss exchange. Kape sits down on a right hand as dos Santos crashes the pocket, and the newcomer’s chin is impressive. Dos Santos gets off a jumping front kick, and both men smack one another in the face with right hooks. The two trade jabs, and Kape goes to the body and slips the long left that aims past his head. Kape counters a jab with three punches, and he staggers dos Santos with a left hook. The Brazilian wears it well once more, and he chains two punches together on the inside to drive dos Santos back. Kape digs his shin into dos Santos’ thigh, and he cracks dos Santos with a few punches. From up close, dos Santos spins with a kick, and it brushes into the cup but it is not called. Kape motions to his groin, and when it goes ignored, Kape surges into action and starts ripping into dos Santos with a flurry of ferocious fists. Dos Santos survives the assault and races forward, and Kape times an elbow right on the way in. Kape pierces the guard with a right hand, and he puts his hands behind his back. Dos Santos motions to him to hit him, and the two showboat and taunt at one another until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape

Round 3
Kape allows dos Santos to come at him so he can lean back and bat dos Santos in the jaw with a clubbing right hand. Dos Santos meanders forward, letting Kape kick him so he can try to front kick his way in. Kape does not allow him to close the distance, and instead tags the unbeaten fighter with a right hand. Dos Santos, not to be outdone, runs at him and reaches Kape with two punches. When Kape knocks him back, dos Santos replies, but Kape works the body as well. Dos Santos kicks the chest and swings hard, and he clips Kape and gets popped in return. The Brazilian lands a kick and gets tripped up, and when he gets back up, he connects with several punches that rock and cut Kape on the corner of his left eye. Despite the damage, Kape is excited when he gets blasted, and he chambers and fires a right hand that stuns dos Santos and knocks him down to a knee. Dos Santos races forward with a jump knee, and he pressures forward giving Kape everything he can handle with high volume and decent power. Kape moves enough to take the sting out of the shots, and puts himself in position for an effective counter. Kape times a huge right hand that snaps dos Santos’ chin to the side, but dos Santos is not shaken and he continues moving forward. Kape lets go with a flurry of hands, and dos Santos blinks it out and has entered “Terminator” mode. Despite taking shots, dos Santos will not back down, and even throws a spinning kick. Kape is composed and calm enough to time his counters, and he lets dos Santos charge at him and busts him in the chops. As dos Santos gets a bit too wild, Kape times a takedown and takes dos Santos off his feet. When on top, Kape rains down a final barrage of punches to conclude the fantastic scrap. Both men climb on top of the cage to motion to the crowd, and despite the all-out battle that Kape delivered, the crowd boos him heartily. What a fight.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Kape (30-27 Kape)

The Official Result
Manel Kape def. Felipe dos Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 3, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Angelo picks Manel Kape, saying it should be Kape all day. He notes that Kape can control range and pace with more technical striking. Felipe is dangerous but hittable and reckless. Kape should be safe to parlay. Angelo sees a clear path for Felipe but doesn't think he can walk through Kape's shots.

Safe to parlay
"This should be Manel cop all day cops should be able to control the range the pace and have the far more technical striking"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 5, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Big Brady confidently picks Manel Kape, citing his high-level competition and recent finishes. He notes dos Santos is a big step down and can be taken down. He thinks Kape will knock him out in the first round.

"I see monel cop knocking out Felipe dos Santos in the very first round"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Cody picks Kape confidently, citing his explosive power, superior striking, and experience against top competition. He notes that dos Santos is a young, green replacement on short notice with limited tape, and that Kape should win either by early finish or smart game plan. Cody acknowledges flyweight volatility but believes Kape is the clear pick.

"this is cops fight to lose man no I think he's got a milk gun pretty much everywhere"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Daniel Levi is very confident in Manel Kape, having placed a bet on him at minus 340. He believes Kape should be a much heavier favorite, lining him at 83-88% to win. Levi notes that dos Santos stands straight up and walks forward, leaving openings to the body and head. He predicts a body shot knockout. He respects dos Santos's potential but thinks Kape is on the road to a title shot.

Bet placed at minus 340. Levi says he lined Kape at 83-88% and should be minus 500 to minus 750. Predicts body shot KO.
"This is my first bet of the night I took Manel cap actually at minus 340 a few days ago and here's why."
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Lucrative James believes Manel Kape is the better striker and will likely knock out Felipe dos Santos in round one. He notes that dos Santos fights like a lunatic, walking forward with pressure, but that style won't work against Kape's level. James acknowledges Kape can be low volume and has shown quit under pressure, but he thinks dos Santos's aggression will force Kape to crack him. He also mentions Kape's takedown and submission potential as additional paths.

"I think monarchy is going to roll here guys"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Kape has tremendous experience and is difficult to deal with in the striking realm. He crashes the pocket and lands big shots. Dos Santos is a UFC newcomer who was scheduled for the contender series; this is a massive step up. Kape should be motivated and finish emphatically, possibly earning a highlight reel finish.

"I fully expect cop to eventually land that big shot and get the win in this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 6, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Manel Kape

Paul picks Kape, noting that dos Santos is too green and that Kape's takedown defense and striking should be enough. He mentions that Kape may even be able to wrestle to secure rounds. Paul's only concern is that Kape might not throw enough, making the fight close, but he believes Kape covers the price.

"cop minus 370 no I don't like it but pretty pretty clear pick for me cop"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 4, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Manel Kape

The MMA Guru picks Manel Kape over Felipe dos Santos, calling him 'the based one.' He notes that Kape has improved since his debut loss to Pantoja, with impressive finishes over Zhalgas Zhumagulov and David Dvorak. Dos Santos is 7-0 but has a split decision over a 5-2 regional opponent, which is not enough to pick him over Kape. He predicts Kape will have some trouble in round one but find a finish in round two or three.

finish in round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with manil cap"
Expert Picks (4)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Angelo picks Lone'er Kavanagh, emphasizing his incredible speed and composure. He acknowledges that Kavanagh hasn't faced top competition and that Felipe's forward pressure will test him. He wants to see if Kavanagh can fight backwards and counter-strike. Ultimately, he trusts Kavanagh's speed and potential, though he admits we'll learn a lot about him in this fight.

"ultimately I'm going to pick him cuz he's just so damn fast"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

Brady likes Kavanagh's clean striking and power, and notes dos Santos has poor takedown defense and striking defense. He thinks Kavanagh can mix in takedowns if needed. Despite dos Santos being tough, Brady predicts a decision win for Kavanagh.

Kavanagh by decision
"give me lonni Kavanagh here I do think Felipe dos Santos is very tough ... so I'll say it's a lonni Kavanagh by decision win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The host considers Kavanagh one of the hottest UK prospects and expects him to showcase his skills. Dos Santos might make it close early, but as Kavanagh's damage piles up, he will cause dos Santos to break, leading to a late finish or decision win.

late finish or decision
"Kavanagh is one of the hottest prospects to come out of the UK in a while and I think that he'll be able to showcase those chops here against dos Santos."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Lone'er Kavanagh

The Guru picks Lone'er Kavanagh, believing he is crisper on the feet and has good grappling instincts. He notes that Kavanagh is compact and beats opponents to the punch, while dos Santos has been in many scraps and may be more damaged. He expects a TKO in the second or third round, as Kavanagh's pressure and body work will wear down dos Santos.

TKO round 2 or 3
"I'm gonna go with Lona kavana over Felipe dos Santos I think Lona kavar would smoke Victor Al Morana"
Comments (2)
BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Split decision bet if odds good

BR
brian 10 months, 3 weeks ago

Split decision bet if odds good