Career Averages - Marcin Prachnio
Career Averages - Ike Villanueva
Marcin Prachnio
Ike Villanueva
Marcin Prachnio - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Crute | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Crute | 0 | 5 of 18 | 27% | 11 of 27 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 36 | 58% | 37 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jimmy Crute | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 36 | 58% | 7 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jimmy Crute | 5 of 18 | 27% | 5 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 36 | 58% | 7 of 21 | 9 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 28 | 6 of 6 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Jimmy Crute despite his long winless streak, because Marcin Prachnio has poor ground game and Crute is a good wrestler. He notes Crute's recent retirement and poor mindset, but believes the gap on the ground is enough for Crute to win. He is hesitant due to Crute's mental state.
Big Brady believes Jimmy Crute should dominate Marcin Prachnio, citing Crute's easier UFC fight to date. He notes Prachnio's poor cardio, no ground game, and chin issues. He predicts Crute wins by first-round submission, though he acknowledges Crute's past bad fight IQ.
The host acknowledges Crute is flaky and inconsistent, and Prachnio is capable of pulling off the upset. However, he thinks Crute will utilize his aggressiveness, land a big shot, and follow up with a submission. The pick is hesitant due to Crute's inconsistency.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Jimmy Crute, despite some hesitation. He criticizes Crute's footwork, saying he fights like he's stepping on Legos, and notes that Crute has problems with low kicks, as seen against Anthony Smith. Prachnio is described as a slick striker with good low kicks, and the Guru believes he will not get outmuscled on the ground. However, he acknowledges the possibility of Crute submitting him, but ultimately goes with Prachnio based on striking superiority.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 38 of 76 | 50% | 56 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 5:31 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 70 of 139 | 50% | 120 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 19 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:24 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 26 of 61 | 42% | 35 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 21 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 34 of 58 | 58% | 67 of 98 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 16 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 18 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Modestas Bukauskas | 38 of 76 | 50% | 28 of 64 | 7 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 29 of 62 | 3 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 70 of 139 | 50% | 19 of 74 | 31 of 44 | 20 of 21 | 58 of 123 | 12 of 16 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Modestas Bukauskas | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 26 of 61 | 42% | 2 of 29 | 10 of 17 | 14 of 15 | 25 of 59 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Modestas Bukauskas | 17 of 31 | 54% | 14 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 34 of 58 | 58% | 8 of 26 | 20 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 23 of 44 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Modestas Bukauskas | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bukauskas (-155), Prachnio (+130)
Round 1
When the dust settles between these light heavyweights, one of them will reach the .500 mark on their UFC ledger while the other will fall two wins beneath it. Bukauskas (15-6, 3-4 UFC) is trying to build up his resume on his second stint with the promotion, while Prachnio (17-7, 4-5 UFC) wants to disappoint home fans by beating the fighter training in England. With similar finish rates of 73% and 71%, respectively, they might need to involve referee Marc Goddard before the final horn. The 205ers touch ‘em up, and Prachnio introduces himself with a trio of leg kicks. Bukauskas swings back with a looping right hand, but his foe is out of range. Prachnio sweeps the leg, or at least tries to, but his second kick nearly buckles Bukauskas’ knee on the inside. Bukauskas times a hard left hand when Prachnio sells out on a low kick, and he leans back to watch a side kick to the face come up short. Prachnio continues working the front leg no matter the stance, and he pushes off to disallow Bukauskas from reaching him with two hooks. Bukauskas sits down on a left hand, getting Prachnio’s attention, and Prachnio gathers himself and keeps on chopping down the tree. Bukauskas loops a left around the guard, and he kicks a ducking Prachnio in the face. They clash together, and Prachnio stumbles before recovering. Prachnio tries to land a spinning wheel kick that ends up bouncing off the guard, and he peppers the front leg and thigh with kicks. Prachnio winds up and drills Bukauskas with a massive right hand, and Bukauskas eats it like a bowl of kugelis. Prachnio races forward throwing a kick, and Bukauskas grabs hold of him and turns him to the fencing. On the break, the Lithuanian dings Prachnio with a spinning elbow, but Prachnio appears unconcerned. Bukauskas races forward throwing hands, and a right hand careens off the temple and wobbles Prachnio. Bukauskas unleashes a salvo of vicious punches, but Prachnio is able to rebound off the fenced and get his footing. Prachnio chips at the front leg, and he lumbers forward throwing inaccurate punches. Bukauskas switches stances frequently, and he beans Prachnio with a huge right hand. Prachnio goes after another spinning wheel kick that is a long way away, and Bukauskas stays composed until he throws a bit too hard, and gets caught with a counter on the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 2
The two touch gloves and go right into a brawl, winging power hooks with no concern of defense. They backpedal momentarily, and Prachnio scores a leg kick and connects with an overhand right. Prachnio kicks low a few times before going high, and Bukauskas blocks the head kick but eats a body kick that follows. Prachnio gets into range and is met with a pair of hooks, and he takes a few steps back to kick the front leg. Prachnio lunges and gets countered, but he ends with a body kick. The low kicks of the Polish fighter are starting to compromise Bukauskas, but Prachnio decides to throw caution to the wind and whiff with a comical windmilling right hand that is feet off the mark. Prachnio takes a moment to stop fighting so recklessly, and Bukauskas uses the moment to belt Prachnio with a handful of punches that rock Prachnio. In the ensuing melee, Bukauskas absorbs a flush head kick in close range and gets his bell rung, and he has no choice but to back off as he was in trouble too. Both fighters wobbled and hurt, they end up clinching, with Bukauskas pressing Prachnio against the wire. Bukauskas drops to his knees for a takedown, and Prachnio stands him up and knees him in the gut to break. Prachnio doubles up on the knee when he gets in close, and Bukauskas backs off and smacks him with a left hand. A body lock takedown from Bukauskas succeeds in planting Prachnio on his back, and Prachnio grabs hold of the fence for several seconds and does not let it go as Goddard watches on without saying anything. Bukauskas moves to half guard, and Prachnio lets go so he can block his face but ultimately takes several elbows off the dome. Bukauskas walks right into side control and threatens briefly with a kimura, but lets it go so he can knee Prachnio in the side and elbow him as well. Prachnio briefly drags Bukauskas back to his guard, but Bukauskas easily gest back to half guard. Prachnio wall-walks to get back up, and they dirty box in the clinch until the violent round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Prachnio
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Bukauskas
Round 3
Gloves are touched, and fists immediately fly. Prachnio elects to go out swinging, and he pummels the Lithuanian with a flurry of fierce punches that knock him back to the fencing. Bukauskas takes advantage of Prachnio’s momentum and hits a body lock trip to redeposit Prachnio flat on his back. Bukauskas moves to half guard to control his opponent, and he lands short shots to stay busy. Goddard warns Prachnio for punches that wrap around to the back of the head, and Bukauskas ignores them while maintaining controlling posture. Goddard asks for more work, and Bukauskas keeps on slowly working from above while not attempting many fight-ending strikes.
Bukauskas sits up to drive two elbows home before leaning down with an arm-triangle choke position. Bukauskas lowers himself flat to smother his opponent while clutching the submission grip tight, and he is on the wrong side but does not seem to care. Bukauskas remains flat and crushes down on his adversary, and even out of position he squeezes with all his might. Prachnio cannot hang on any longer, and he taps out.
Prachnio thinks about standing up after the fight's conclusion, but he does not have the energy to do it. Meanwhile, the victorious Lithuanian hits a back flip to show he still has something left in the tank.
The Official Result
Modestas Bukauskas def. Marcin Prachnio R3 3:12 via Submission (Arm-Triangle Choke)
Angelo picks Modestas Bukauskas, citing his youth and well-roundedness. He notes that Prachnio has power but is chinny and can be knockout or bust. Angelo expects Bukauskas to win and hopes for an over 1.5 rounds line to bet on.
Cody picks Marcin Prachnio, citing his volume striking and improved cardio. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas has low output and has looked unimpressive in his UFC return, with close fights against lower-level competition. Cody believes Prachnio's pressure and output will overwhelm Bukauskas, and that he can win by decision or even knockout.
Daniel thinks Marcin Prachnio has a higher work rate and will outwork Modestas Bukauskas. He notes both have poor chins but Prachnio pushes a higher pace. He picks the underdog Prachnio.
Paul leans towards Prachnio, noting that Bukauskas has low volume and no real power. He believes Prachnio's volume advantage (5.61 significant strikes per minute vs 3.28) will be key, and that the fight likely goes to a decision where Prachnio edges it. However, he is not fully confident and may pass on betting.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog, citing Prachnio's better technical striking and leg-kicking ability. He notes that Modestas Bukauskas lacks finishing potential and a strong grappling game, often letting fights go to split decisions. Prachnio is known for chewing up opponents' legs, and Bukauskas has a history of leg injuries. The Guru also questions Bukauskas's training camp with heavyweights, suggesting it may not be ideal for this matchup.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 53 of 127 | 41% | 53 of 127 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 101 of 189 | 53% | 112 of 204 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 11 of 29 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 23 of 47 | 48% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 19 of 36 | 52% | 19 of 36 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 30 of 60 | 50% | 32 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:08 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 23 of 62 | 37% | 23 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devin Clark | 0 | 48 of 82 | 58% | 53 of 89 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 53 of 127 | 41% | 36 of 106 | 13 of 16 | 4 of 5 | 49 of 120 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 101 of 189 | 53% | 42 of 113 | 37 of 51 | 22 of 25 | 78 of 156 | 23 of 33 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 11 of 29 | 37% | 7 of 24 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 23 of 47 | 48% | 8 of 28 | 7 of 9 | 8 of 10 | 21 of 42 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 19 of 36 | 52% | 13 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 17 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 30 of 60 | 50% | 9 of 33 | 9 of 15 | 12 of 12 | 26 of 52 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 23 of 62 | 37% | 16 of 53 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 21 of 58 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Devin Clark | 48 of 82 | 58% | 25 of 52 | 21 of 27 | 2 of 3 | 31 of 62 | 17 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo believes Devin Clark can pressure forward, avoid Prachnio's power, get takedowns, and grind out a win. He notes Clark's solid grappling and footwork, and that Prachnio has a questionable chin. He thinks Clark should win, but the -190 odds are a bit rich; he would prefer Clark at -150. He will monitor the line movement.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Devin Clark to win by decision. He notes that Clark has a clear path to victory through wrestling, as Prachnio has terrible takedown defense and ground game. However, he is not confident because Clark has poor cardio and has been finished often, and Prachnio's fights have had weird results.
Cody picks Prachnio as a dog, noting Clark's cardio issues and tendency to fade. Prachnio has power and has shown he can survive early takedowns and come back. Cody thinks if Clark doesn't finish early, Prachnio can knock him out in the later rounds. He suggests a prop on Prachnio by KO in round 3 at long odds.
Clark should be able to use his clinch and grappling to push Prachnio against the cage and drag him to the mat. Prachnio has questionable takedown defense and durability. However, Clark is inconsistent and has a history of fumbling fights he's winning. The line at -210 is too wide for someone as flimsy as Clark, but he should still win by decision.
Paul also picks Prachnio, agreeing with Cody's assessment. He notes Clark's wrestling advantage but thinks Prachnio can survive and find a knockout. Paul mentions that Clark has been knocked out before and that Prachnio has power. He is tempted by the dog price and the prop.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio as an underdog after initially leaning toward Devin Clark. He notes that Clark has taken a lot of damage and lacks one-punch KO power or submission threat. He believes Prachnio can out-damage Clark on the feet with better striking skill. He acknowledges the pick is risky but thinks Prachnio is a lot better than Clark in terms of before a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 0 | 44 of 81 | 54% | 72 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 8:39 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 55 of 88 | 62% | 147 of 185 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 16 of 33 | 48% | 20 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:21 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 32 of 44 | 72% | 66 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:18 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 11 of 15 | 73% | 30 of 35 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 4:38 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 56 of 64 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 0 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 22 of 39 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:40 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 21 of 39 | 53% | 25 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitor Petrino | 44 of 81 | 54% | 32 of 68 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 58 | 1 of 1 | 19 of 22 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 55 of 88 | 62% | 25 of 54 | 21 of 25 | 9 of 9 | 41 of 73 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Vitor Petrino | 16 of 33 | 48% | 9 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 32 of 44 | 72% | 12 of 23 | 14 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 32 | 11 of 12 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Vitor Petrino | 11 of 15 | 73% | 10 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 11 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Vitor Petrino | 17 of 33 | 51% | 13 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 21 of 39 | 53% | 12 of 27 | 6 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 36 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Petrino but warns against including him in parlays, citing the recent trend of undefeated prospects losing. He notes Petrino's power and offensive wrestling but poor takedown defense. Prachnio has veteran savvy and power, but his chin is questionable. He sees Petrino having multiple ways to win but lacks confidence.
Big Brady picks Vitor Petrino to win by first-round knockout. He was impressed by Petrino's wrestling in his last fight, taking down Anton Turkalj seven times. He notes that Prachnio has been knocked out by lesser strikers and has poor durability. He believes Petrino can knock him out on the feet or take him down and finish him. He mentions that Prachnio's path to victory is leg kicks and running away, but he doesn't think the fight goes to decision.
Cody picks Petrino, citing his power and youth. He notes Prachnio has a questionable chin and has been knocked out early in the UFC. He thinks Petrino will crack him early. He says there's no value at -300 but Petrino should win.
Connor picks Petrino because he is too violent for Prachnio, who has become a safe fighter after being knocked out. Petrino's reckless pressure and durability will force Prachnio out of his comfort zone. However, Prachnio could win if he takes Petrino down or lands a switch kick, but Petrino's ability to keep coming makes him the pick.
Daniel Levi picks Petrino, citing his knockout power and aggressive style. He notes that Prachnio has a questionable chin, having been knocked out three times in the UFC. Levi acknowledges Petrino's cardio concerns due to his high-energy approach but believes he will expose Prachnio's chin early. He is not interested in betting at minus-300 but picks Petrino to win.
James believes Petrino has all the advantages: youth, power, physicality, durability, and strength. He thinks Prachnio may be the better technical mixed martial artist, but Petrino's raw attributes will overwhelm him. He predicts a first-round knockout, as he expects Petrino to land on Prachnio's chin and finish the fight.
Petrino has big knockout power and durability, and he can cut off the cage to prevent Prachnio from using his karate style. Prachnio is not a good enough grappler to hold Petrino down, and Petrino will eventually land a knockout, likely early in the fight.
Paul picks Petrino, noting his power and wrestling. He thinks Prachnio has only beaten low-level competition and will be overwhelmed. He mentions Petrino's cardio looked good in his last fight. He expects a finish or a clear decision.
The MMA Guru picks Vitor Petrino to win by KO, citing Prachnio's poor chin and lack of finishing potential. He notes Prachnio was KO'd by Sam Alvey and others, while Petrino is a physical freak with dangerous striking. He acknowledges Petrino's grappling issues but believes his finishing power is decisive.
Zane picks Petrino because he is a bully and brawler who doesn't gas easily and has a great chin. Prachnio is a technical karate fighter who has become safe after being knocked out, and Petrino's relentless pressure and power should overwhelm him. However, Petrino is a mess and could be taken down or knocked out, but his violence is likely too much for Prachnio.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 8 of 33 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 79 of 144 | 54% | 79 of 144 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 26 of 48 | 54% | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 1 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 4 of 13 | 30% | 4 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| William Knight | 0 | 24 of 47 | 51% | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 8 of 33 | 24% | 0 of 13 | 2 of 8 | 6 of 12 | 8 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 79 of 144 | 54% | 9 of 36 | 7 of 25 | 63 of 83 | 79 of 144 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 3 of 10 | 30% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 4 | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 26 of 48 | 54% | 1 of 10 | 3 of 11 | 22 of 27 | 26 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 29 of 49 | 59% | 5 of 12 | 2 of 8 | 22 of 29 | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 4 of 13 | 30% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 2 | 4 of 6 | 4 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| William Knight | 24 of 47 | 51% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 6 | 19 of 27 | 24 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo has a one-unit bet on Prachnio but expresses buyer's remorse. He thinks Prachnio is the better technical fighter with a karate background, but his chin is a concern. Angelo notes William Knight is a powerful, fast bodybuilder-type who can wrestle, but is inconsistent and missed weight by 12 pounds. He believes Prachnio should win if he doesn't get caught, but admits the bet is risky.
Big Brady favors Knight because of his wrestling path, as Prachnio has poor takedown defense (around 50%) and terrible cardio, gassing out by six minutes in his last fight. He thinks Knight can take him down, wear on him, and get a second-round knockout. He notes that both have durability issues, but Knight's power and cardio give him the edge.
Cody picks Prachnio, noting William Knight has struggled with weight cuts and is now moving back to 205 after a failed heavyweight stint. He details Knight's history of botched weight cuts and poor performances when depleted. He says Prachnio has volume and cardio advantages, and even if Knight gets takedowns, he won't do enough with them. He calls it an even money fight but likes Prachnio as the betting underdog.
Connor agrees with Zane, noting that Knight's counter punching is technically poor and he cannot put together combinations. Prachnio will get hurt but is unlikely to be finished. Knight's lack of follow-up means Prachnio can recover and win rounds.
Jacob picks William Knight, citing his explosiveness and power as a perfect matchup against Prachnio's karate style. He thinks once Knight starts landing, Prachnio will shell up against the fence and get finished. Jacob notes Knight's aggression and ability to pounce, and believes Prachnio's chin is weak. He also mentions the under 1.5 rounds feels like a trap but thinks Knight will get the KO.
Prachnio's kick-heavy, movement-based style should keep him safe from Knight's early power. Knight fades after round one and has poor cardio. Prachnio can use his range and footwork to win a decision, though his chin is a concern. Live betting after round one is suggested.
Paul picks Prachnio, saying he struggles to get to William Knight. He notes Knight's volume isn't there and he's not sure about his grappling. He says Prachnio should box him up at range with volume as long as he stays upright. He acknowledges Knight can land a bomb, but thinks more often than not Prachnio wins. He says he's not sure if he'll bet it but is picking Prachnio.
The MMA Guru picks William Knight, but is undecided. He acknowledges Marcin Prachnio is not bad and beat Khalil Rountree, but notes Prachnio's chin is suspect, having been finished three times in his last six fights by KO. He believes Knight will find that chin and get a KO, either by dominant position or big shot on the feet, but emphasizes Knight must be aggressive.
Zane picks Prachnio because he is a better striker and more determined than Knight. Knight has power but lacks form and follow-up, and he turns into a counter puncher when pressured. Prachnio takes available targets and will win rounds. Knight may hurt him but likely won't finish, and Prachnio's improved durability should see him through.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 0 | 74 of 117 | 63% | 116 of 159 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:53 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 64 of 110 | 58% | 96 of 142 | 4 of 11 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 5:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 30 of 42 | 71% | 43 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:28 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 14 of 27 | 51% | 15 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:00 | |
| 2 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 46 of 68 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:14 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 33 of 49 | 67% | 54 of 70 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | Philipe Lins | 0 | 16 of 25 | 64% | 27 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 17 of 34 | 50% | 27 of 44 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Philipe Lins | 74 of 117 | 63% | 13 of 49 | 44 of 48 | 17 of 20 | 47 of 81 | 26 of 35 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 64 of 110 | 58% | 36 of 79 | 20 of 22 | 8 of 9 | 52 of 96 | 9 of 10 | 3 of 4 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Philipe Lins | 30 of 42 | 71% | 4 of 11 | 14 of 16 | 12 of 15 | 23 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 14 of 27 | 51% | 2 of 14 | 7 of 8 | 5 of 5 | 14 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Philipe Lins | 28 of 50 | 56% | 5 of 26 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 31 | 13 of 18 | 1 of 1 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 33 of 49 | 67% | 25 of 40 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 27 of 42 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Philipe Lins | 16 of 25 | 64% | 4 of 12 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 17 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marcin Prachnio | 17 of 34 | 50% | 9 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 27 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 |
Angelo likes Philipe Lins to win but is watching the scales closely because Lins is moving down from heavyweight. He notes Lins has legit power and a BJJ black belt, but prefers to trade. He mentions Prachnio has chin issues but an entire set of skills we haven't seen. He says if Lins looks good at 205 he will pick him and probably bet, but if he looks sucked out he will fade him.
Big Brady picks Marcin Prachnio to win by knockout, citing his volume and recent improved performances. He notes that Philipe Lins has looked poor in the UFC and has been knocked out multiple times. However, he is concerned about Prachnio's chin and says it's hard to be confident. He predicts a second-round knockout.
Cody picks Prachnio, citing Lins' poor UFC performances and long layoff. He notes Prachnio's improved fight IQ and chin. He thinks Prachnio can win at range and avoid Lins' power. He mentions the 'don't let friends bet on guys that lost to Kelly Nunes' rule.
The host picks Philipe Lins as his dog of the night at +110 (1 unit). He believes Lins is the much better striker with enough power to find Prachnio's chin and finish him. He notes concerns about Lins' recent inactivity, weight cut, and KO loss to Tanner Boser, which is why he only bets 1 unit despite a 70% win probability.
Paul agrees, noting Lins' inactivity and poor showings at 205. He thinks Prachnio's striking and improved defense will be enough. He mentions the Kelly Nunes rule and expects Prachnio to win.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio over Philipe Lins, expressing concerns about Lins making weight and his inactivity. He notes Prachnio's technical striking and ability to make fights awkward, but acknowledges his suspect chin. He predicts a 29-28 decision for Prachnio, believing Lins will gas and that Prachnio's confidence from a two-fight win streak will carry him. He mentions Prachnio's win over Khalil Rountree as a quality victory.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 1 | 59 of 92 | 64% | 60 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 49 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 32 of 72 | 44% | 32 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 1 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 59 of 92 | 64% | 23 of 52 | 15 of 19 | 21 of 21 | 55 of 86 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 34 of 79 | 43% | 29 of 73 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 63 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 48 of 79 | 60% | 18 of 45 | 12 of 16 | 18 of 18 | 44 of 73 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 32 of 72 | 44% | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 11 of 13 | 84% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.
Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.
Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.
Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.
Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.
Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 49 of 148 | 33% | 50 of 149 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 102 of 216 | 47% | 105 of 220 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 16 of 38 | 42% | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 30 of 54 | 55% | 32 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 20 of 48 | 41% | 21 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 32 of 70 | 45% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 13 of 62 | 20% | 13 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 0 | 40 of 92 | 43% | 40 of 92 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 49 of 148 | 33% | 29 of 120 | 13 of 18 | 7 of 10 | 49 of 146 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 102 of 216 | 47% | 33 of 131 | 29 of 39 | 40 of 46 | 100 of 211 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 16 of 38 | 42% | 5 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 16 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 30 of 54 | 55% | 8 of 26 | 7 of 12 | 15 of 16 | 29 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 20 of 48 | 41% | 14 of 39 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 20 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 32 of 70 | 45% | 10 of 40 | 6 of 10 | 16 of 20 | 31 of 67 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Marcin Prachnio | 13 of 62 | 20% | 10 of 55 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 13 of 60 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Khalil Rountree Jr. | 40 of 92 | 43% | 15 of 65 | 16 of 17 | 9 of 10 | 40 of 92 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khalil Rountree Jr. confidently, citing Prachnio's poor striking defense and tendency to get knocked out in the first round (three times in UFC). He notes Rountree has finished five of eight wins in the first round. He predicts a first-round knockout and likes the Rountree round one prop at +175.
Daniel Levi picks Khalil Rountree Jr. by first-round knockout, noting Prachnio has been knocked out in the first round in all three UFC fights. He believes Rountree's speed and striking improvements in Thailand will be too much for Prachnio, who is too slow and doesn't belong in the UFC.
Both fighters have sketchy chins and a high percentage of their fights ending under 1.5 rounds. Prachnio has diminishing durability and has been knocked out in his last three fights. Rountree has power and should be able to land a counter or follow-up shots. I expect a knockout from Rountree, likely in the first round. The under 1.5 rounds is a solid bet given the statistics and the matchup.
The MMA Guru picks Khalil Rountree Jr. to win by first-round TKO, calling Marcin Prachnio overmatched and past his prime. He notes Prachnio was brutally KO'd by Mike Rodriguez in his last fight and is taking a quick turnaround. He believes Rountree's striking will be too much, and he predicts a brutal finish via overhand right or similar shot. He expresses hope Rountree doesn't retire.
Ike Villanueva - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 1 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 1 | 22 of 29 | 75% | 22 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 4 of 22 | 18% | 4 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyson Pedro | 22 of 29 | 75% | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ike Villanueva | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tyson Pedro | 22 of 29 | 75% | 10 of 17 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ike Villanueva | 4 of 22 | 18% | 2 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Tyson Pedro, believing he can get takedowns and win via grappling. He notes Villanueva has zero leg kick defense and only one takedown attempt against him in the UFC. However, he says the odds are crazy (Pedro almost -500) and he will watch the scales due to Pedro's multi-year layoff. He warns that if Pedro can't get takedowns, he'll get lit up.
Big Brady picks Tyson Pedro to win by knockout in the first round, citing Villanueva's poor chin and defensive liabilities. He notes that Villanueva has been finished many times and has terrible striking defense. Despite Pedro's long layoff, he expects Pedro to finish early, either by knockout or submission.
Cody picks Pedro, calling it a setup fight. He notes Pedro's submission skills and Villanueva's poor record. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He suggests Pedro inside the distance as a better bet than the moneyline.
The host picks Tyson Pedro to win, including him in his quick picks. He also includes the fight in his totals parlay under 1.5 rounds, expecting a finish. He trusts Pedro more than Dean Barry.
Paul agrees, noting Pedro's submission wins aged well and Villanueva's inability to grapple. He thinks Pedro will take him down and submit him. He questions the price but expects Pedro to win.
The MMA Guru picks Tyson Pedro by submission, specifically an armbar in the first round. He acknowledges Pedro's history of poor decision-making and long layoff, but believes he is the better technical fighter. He notes Villanueva has power but is terrible overall. He predicts both will have shaky moments on the feet, then Pedro will get a takedown and finish with an armbar. He references Pedro's past fights where he hurt opponents but then shot bad takedowns.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolae Negumereanu | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 7 of 21 | 33% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolae Negumereanu | 11 of 21 | 52% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Ike Villanueva | 7 of 21 | 33% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolae Negumereanu | 11 of 21 | 52% | 8 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Ike Villanueva | 7 of 21 | 33% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Negumereanu because he has a plan B with takedowns, while Villanueva only has boxing and heart. He notes Negumereanu is incredibly durable, throws with bad intentions, and can force sloppy takedowns. Villanueva's legs were chopped in his last fight and he has no backup. He likes the more/more on the monkey knife fight as his most confident money play.
Big Brady picks Negumereanu as the younger, more durable fighter with a five-inch reach advantage. He notes Villanueva's 11 finish losses and age (37), while Negumereanu has shown next-level toughness. He predicts a second-round knockout, though acknowledges Villanueva's power and toughness.
Cody picks Nicolae Negumereanu, but prefers the inside distance prop at +110. He notes that Ike Villanueva is a one-round fighter who gasses quickly, while Negumereanu has good durability and cardio. Cody believes Negumereanu can survive the first round and then take over, likely finishing Villanueva in the second or third. He emphasizes that Villanueva is the worst fighter in the division and that Negumereanu, despite being low-level, is the better fighter.
Lock picks Negumereanu based on grappling advantage. He notes Villanueva is a boxer with poor cardio and Negumereanu should get the fight to the ground. He expects a finish inside the distance, possibly by ground and pound. He also likes Villanueva by KO as a prop.
Paul picks Negumereanu, calling Villanueva the worst guy in the division. He notes that Negumereanu looked improved in his last fight and that Villanueva is a one-round fighter with poor cardio. Paul believes Negumereanu's durability and pressure will be too much for Villanueva, though he hates the -220 price. He suggests that Negumereanu inside the distance is a good play.
The MMA Guru picks Nicolae Negumereanu, noting his reach advantage and youth. He dismisses Ike Villanueva as a fat old man with only KO power. He believes Negumereanu will out-strike Villanueva and win by unanimous decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 1 | 59 of 92 | 64% | 60 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 34 of 79 | 43% | 34 of 79 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 0 | 48 of 79 | 60% | 49 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 32 of 72 | 44% | 32 of 72 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 1 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Prachnio | 59 of 92 | 64% | 23 of 52 | 15 of 19 | 21 of 21 | 55 of 86 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 34 of 79 | 43% | 29 of 73 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 2 | 27 of 63 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Prachnio | 48 of 79 | 60% | 18 of 45 | 12 of 16 | 18 of 18 | 44 of 73 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 32 of 72 | 44% | 29 of 68 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 25 of 56 | 4 of 9 | 3 of 7 | |
| 2 | Marcin Prachnio | 11 of 13 | 84% | 5 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 11 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.
Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.
Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.
Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.
Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.
Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Villanueva | 1 | 24 of 56 | 42% | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Vinicius Moreira | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 24 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ike Villanueva | 0 | 21 of 50 | 42% | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Vinicius Moreira | 0 | 22 of 34 | 64% | 22 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Ike Villanueva | 1 | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Vinicius Moreira | 0 | 2 of 8 | 25% | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ike Villanueva | 24 of 56 | 42% | 18 of 47 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 24 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Moreira | 24 of 42 | 57% | 4 of 10 | 10 of 18 | 10 of 14 | 23 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ike Villanueva | 21 of 50 | 42% | 15 of 41 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 21 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Moreira | 22 of 34 | 64% | 3 of 6 | 10 of 16 | 9 of 12 | 21 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ike Villanueva | 3 of 6 | 50% | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Vinicius Moreira | 2 of 8 | 25% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady calls this a low-level fight and expects it to end inside the distance. He notes Vinicius Moreira is very chinny and has no gas tank, while Ike Villanueva has power. He predicts Villanueva will stuff early takedowns and knock out Moreira in the first round. He says the best bet is under 1.5 rounds or fight doesn't go to decision, as both fighters have high finish rates.
The host leans towards Ike Villanueva due to his power and the diminishing durability of Vinicius Moreira, who is on a three-fight skid. He thinks Ike can land a bomb and finish the fight early, but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline. His favorite play is the under 1.5 rounds, which he sees as great value.
The MMA Guru picks Vinicius Moreira by submission, noting Villanueva's history of being submitted (by Trevin Giles, Robert Drysdale, etc.) and Moreira's strong grappling background (all his pre-UFC wins were first-round submissions). He expects Moreira to take Villanueva down and finish with an arm triangle choke in the first round.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wright | 0 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 23 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ike Villanueva | 1 | 15 of 15 | 100% | 21 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Wright | 0 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 23 of 24 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Ike Villanueva | 1 | 15 of 15 | 100% | 21 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jordan Wright | 7 of 7 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 15 of 15 | 100% | 10 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 12 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jordan Wright | 7 of 7 | 100% | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 15 of 15 | 100% | 10 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 12 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Jordan Wright to win by knockout, expecting an early finish. He is not impressed with Ike Villanueva, who looked awful against Chase Sherman, landing only 20 strikes before getting knocked out. Wright is faster and has power, though he has fought mostly nobodies. Wright is coming up from 185 to 205, but Brady likes his style and expects him to land a shot and finish Villanueva.
Daniel Levi picks Ike Villanueva to win by knockout. He notes that Jordan Wright is too small for light heavyweight, weighing in at 200 pounds, and lacks the toughness to compete in the UFC. Levi believes Villanueva has better size and experience, and that this is likely the only fight Villanueva will win in his UFC career. He expects a sloppy fight but sees Villanueva's power and durability as decisive.
Wright is explosive, fast, and has knockout power, while Villanueva is 36 and was just finished by Chase Sherman. Wright's speed and footwork should be too much for Villanueva, who has durability issues. Expect a first-round KO from Wright. If Wright comes out as an underdog, he might be worth a small bet.
The MMA Guru picks Jorge Gonzalez (Jordan Wright) over Ike Villanueva, criticizing Villanueva's poor UFC debut against Chase Sherman and his 16-10 record. He praises Gonzalez's competition, including a win over undefeated Marcos Rodriguez via first-round rear-naked choke, and predicts a first-round submission or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 1 | 51 of 87 | 58% | 51 of 87 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 16 of 54 | 29% | 16 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 0 | 39 of 69 | 56% | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 1 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 12 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ike Villanueva | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chase Sherman | 51 of 87 | 58% | 27 of 57 | 13 of 15 | 11 of 15 | 46 of 80 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ike Villanueva | 16 of 54 | 29% | 13 of 50 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 53 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Chase Sherman | 39 of 69 | 56% | 17 of 42 | 13 of 15 | 9 of 12 | 39 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Ike Villanueva | 14 of 48 | 29% | 11 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Chase Sherman | 12 of 18 | 66% | 10 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 11 | 4 of 6 | 1 of 1 |
| Ike Villanueva | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady leans with Chase Sherman due to his UFC experience and size advantage, noting that Ike Villanueva is moving up from light heavyweight and will be the smaller fighter. He acknowledges Villanueva's speed and power but believes Sherman can weather the early storm and take over in the second round, predicting a second-round knockout. However, he calls it a very low-level fight and is not highly confident.
Daniel Levi leans with Chase Sherman, citing his size, UFC experience, and thunderous leg kicks. He notes that Villanueva is a former middleweight/light heavyweight and smaller, but admits Sherman's head movement is poor and a knockout from Villanueva wouldn't surprise him.
The MMA Guru picks Chase Sherman, citing his better chin and experience against tougher opponents, including a fight with Rashad Coulter. He notes that Ike Villanueva lost to Trevin Giles, a middleweight, in the first round, and questions his durability. He predicts Sherman will finish Villanueva in the second round via TKO once Villanueva gasses.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Ike Villanueva, citing his toughness, forward pressure, speed, and power. He notes that Prachnio's three first-round knockout losses raise chin questions. Angelo believes Villanueva is a solid underdog and likes the under on rounds as a prop.
Big Brady picks Ike Villanueva to win by first round KO, calling it a clear dog pass. He notes Prachnio's weak chin (four KO losses) and poor striking defense, while Villanueva is a powerful brawler with 83% finish rate. He believes the smaller Apex cage favors Villanueva's pressure style, and that Prachnio's path to victory (staying on the outside) is unlikely. He thinks the line is off and Villanueva should be closer to even.
Cody picks Villanueva as a dog, noting his power and that Prachnio's chin has been checked. He thinks Villanueva has a puncher's chance and that Prachnio's defensive liabilities make him vulnerable. However, he is not confident and says he won't bet it, but for PRP purposes he takes Villanueva. He also likes the under 1.5 rounds.
Jacob picks Marcin Prachnio, calling the fight a coin flip and going with Prachnio because he thinks he has a little more power than Ike. He notes a weird stat that Prachnio has never had a fight end in the second round. Jacob is not very confident and suggests staying away from this fight.
Villanueva is durable and has heavy hands. Prachnio has a vulnerable chin and relies on a kicking game to stay away from power. Villanueva will march forward, absorb kicks, and land a knockout punch. Prachnio's chin issues will be exposed. Villanueva is one of my favorite dogs on the card.
Paul leans toward Prachnio based on his technical improvements in the last fight, but he is not betting him at -190. He notes both fighters have questionable chins and thinks the under 1.5 rounds is a better play. He acknowledges Villanueva's power but thinks Prachnio's volume could be key.
The MMA Guru picks Marcin Prachnio by decision, expecting a boring fight where Prachnio keeps range and outpoints Villanueva. He acknowledges Prachnio's chin issues but believes Villanueva's chin is equally suspect. He criticizes Villanueva's UFC caliber and notes his win over Vinicius Moreira was unimpressive.
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