vs
-130 +270
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov Next Fight
Age 42
Height 6' 2"
Reach 75.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 41
Height 5' 11"
Reach 74.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Tim Means
5.04 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
3.65 SApM
60.0% Str. Def.
1.14 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
64.0% TD Def.
0.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Nicolas Dalby
3.88 SLpM
43.0% Str. Acc.
3.51 SApM
52.0% Str. Def.
0.9 TD Avg
26.0% TD Acc.
59.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Tim Means
Moneyline
Caesars -130
KO/TKO
BetRivers +400
Submission
BetMGM +900
Decision
BetWay +200
Nicolas Dalby
Moneyline
FanDuel +270
KO/TKO
BetRivers +600
Submission
BetMGM +1100
Decision
BetMGM +230
Tim Means - Fight History
LOSS vs Court McGee
Submission (neck crank) R1 3:19 · UFC 307: Pereira vs. Rountree Jr. · Oct 05, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Court McGee 0 14 of 24 58% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Tim Means 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Court McGee 0 14 of 24 58% 19 of 35 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:58
Tim Means 0 5 of 13 38% 12 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Court McGee 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tim Means 5 of 13 38% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Court McGee 14 of 24 58% 9 of 18 3 of 4 2 of 2 14 of 22 0 of 2 0 of 0
Tim Means 5 of 13 38% 2 of 9 2 of 3 1 of 1 5 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Sep 29, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Court McGee

Angelo picks Court McGee, believing the fight is 50-50 and McGee's wrestling and pressure can be the difference. He notes Tim Means is a 2-to-1 favorite, which he considers unjustified given both fighters are old and worn. He placed a small bet on McGee at +195.

Bet 0.25 units on Court McGee at +195
"I'm leaning court court is going to be the pick... I threw a quarter of a unit on him at plus 195"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Oct 3, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady is hesitant on this fight, noting that both fighters are veterans and he doesn't trust either. He leans towards Tim Means because he believes Means still has a little left in the tank, while Court McGee hasn't had a finish since 2010 and has been losing to lower-level competition. He expects McGee to attempt takedowns but thinks Means will do better work on the feet and win a decision.

"I just feel like Tim Means is has just a little little bit left in the gas tank at at this at this point of time so I think it's going to be close it's probably going to be greasy …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Cody picks McGee, citing his home-field advantage in Utah and cardio. He notes Means' tendency to gas and get submitted. He believes McGee can outlast Means and possibly win by submission.

Court McGee by submission
"it's me and mgee as well brother"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Connor picks Means based on sentiment, acknowledging it's not a sound analysis. He notes that Means is old and has lost speed, but Court McGee is not a powerful striker and Means' craft might be enough. He wants Means to go out on a win.

"I'm going to pick Tim Means simply because I adore him. And I would like this to be his last fight. And I would like him to go out on a win."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Daniel Vreeland picks Tim Means, citing his slick striking and improved wrestling. He notes that Court McGee has slowed down drastically and was nearly beaten by Alex Morono. Vreeland expects Means to knock out McGee, though he is hesitant to lay heavy chalk on a fighter who has lost four of his last five.

"I like the Slicker striking style of Tim me his wrestling's gotten a lot better I think he's got a good chance to come out here and knock out Court McGee"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

The host believes Tim Means is the better overall fighter and will utilize his clinch with knees and elbows, as well as distance striking with kicks and long-range weapons, to pick apart Court McGee. He expects Means to win on the scorecards, noting that McGee lacks significant knockout power.

"I do think that means is the better overall fighter in this spot and I don't think he'll have too much knockout power to worry about on the McGee side"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 2, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Court McGee

Paul picks McGee, emphasizing his durability and wrestling. He thinks McGee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. He sees value at plus 170 and expects a close decision or late finish.

"McGee for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 1, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Court McGee

The MMA Guru picks Court McGee over Tim Means, citing McGee's training at altitude in Utah as a key advantage. He notes both fighters are past their prime but believes McGee is less finishable and will employ a boring cage control game, failing takedowns but winning the pressure game. He predicts a decision victory for McGee, as neither fighter is likely to finish early.

"I'm going to say Court McGee wins this one by decision and I'm pretty confident in it."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Oct 4, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Tim Means

Zane also picks Means for sentimental reasons, calling himself a long-time Dirty Bird fan. He acknowledges that Means has lost a step but notes that McGee is not a dangerous striker and Means' experience might carry him. He admits it's not a pick based on sound analysis.

"I'm going to rise with Tim Means just for us. Long time Dirty Bird fans."
TKO (punches) R1 2:09 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Uroš Medić 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Tim Means 1 7 of 12 58% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Uroš Medić 0 7 of 17 41% 10 of 21 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:18
Tim Means 1 7 of 12 58% 11 of 16 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Uroš Medić 7 of 17 41% 1 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Means 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Uroš Medić 7 of 17 41% 1 of 10 5 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 14 2 of 3 0 of 0
Tim Means 7 of 12 58% 5 of 10 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 9 1 of 2 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Angelo is very confident Uroš Medić wins, citing his youth, speed, power, and superior striking. He notes Medić has a 100% finish rate and killer instinct. The only concern is Medić's 46% takedown defense, but he thinks Tim Means at 40 years old may not be able to exploit it. He expects a finish and suggests waiting for prop bets, hoping for a 2.5 round line to bet the under.

Under 2.5 rounds (if available)
"uros medic should win this fight I very confident in him to win this fight I don't know if I trust these odds just yet let's wait for the prop bets"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Cody picks Means as a dog, citing his experience and cleaner striking. He notes Means' body work and straight left, and believes he can hurt Medić, who has been rocked before. However, he admits Means' age and cardio are concerns, making it a doger pass.

"it's pretty clear dogger pass here means could beat him on volume too"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

Daniel thinks Means is durable but at 40 may not dig deep when hurt. He notes Medić is younger, more dangerous, and showed heart in the Semelsberger fight. He leans Medić but won't bet at -310, though he might take Means as a dog if the price gets better.

"I'm gonna go medic but I mean I'd love to see the Dirty Bird win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Uroš Medić

Medić is younger, faster, and more powerful. Means is 40 with a lot of mileage. Medić's Muay Thai and power should overwhelm Means as the fight goes on. I expect Medić to finish Means, possibly by knockout. The inside distance prop is a good option.

Medić wins inside distance
"I think that medic as he continues to land and starts landing on means uh it's going to cause means to you know I think it will cause him to break and I think that will eventually see means actually …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul also picks Means, highlighting his experience against better competition and his opportunistic submission game. He thinks Means' grappling advantage could be key, as Medić has poor takedown defense. He calls it a clear doger pass.

"it's pretty clear dogger pass here means could beat him on volume too"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Uroš Medić

The MMA Guru picks Uroš Medić, calling him more explosive and dangerous on the feet. He criticizes Tim Means as hitting a veteran decline and notes his loss to Matt Semelsberger. He highlights Medić's good cardio and nasty body kicks, predicting a TKO via liver shot. He also mentions Medić's near-finish of Orolbai and his ability to handle Means' grinding style.

TKO via liver shot
"I'm going to go uros medic I think he's really dangerous"
TKO (punches) R3 1:15 · UFC Fight Night: Fiziev vs. Gamrot · Sep 23, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 2 104 of 143 72% 134 of 178 0 of 2 0% 0 1 2:51
André Fialho 0 51 of 103 49% 56 of 110 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 1 39 of 53 73% 44 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:22
André Fialho 0 19 of 47 40% 19 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Tim Means 0 48 of 69 69% 73 of 99 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:29
André Fialho 0 29 of 50 58% 32 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:48
3 Tim Means 1 17 of 21 80% 17 of 21 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
André Fialho 0 3 of 6 50% 5 of 9 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 104 of 143 72% 66 of 103 33 of 35 5 of 5 56 of 87 30 of 35 18 of 21
André Fialho 51 of 103 49% 32 of 75 15 of 23 4 of 5 35 of 86 16 of 17 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 39 of 53 73% 21 of 34 16 of 17 2 of 2 25 of 36 8 of 10 6 of 7
André Fialho 19 of 47 40% 8 of 31 8 of 13 3 of 3 13 of 41 6 of 6 0 of 0
2 Tim Means 48 of 69 69% 33 of 53 14 of 15 1 of 1 22 of 39 14 of 16 12 of 14
André Fialho 29 of 50 58% 24 of 44 4 of 4 1 of 2 19 of 39 10 of 11 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 3 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 12 8 of 9 0 of 0
André Fialho 3 of 6 50% 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 3 of 6 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 17, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo thinks Means can ugly up the fight and squeak out a close decision. He notes Means is tough, busy, and has fought a who's who of welterweights. However, he is concerned about Means' age (39) and Fialho's power. He has very low confidence.

"I do think Tim Means can squeak this out super low confidence"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

Big Brady picks André Fialho to win by first-round knockout, citing his power advantage and youth (10 years younger). He notes both fighters have poor durability, but Fialho hits like a truck. He worries about Fialho's horrible cardio and thinks he must finish early. He says nobody should be confident on either side.

first round knockout
"I'm gonna say Fiola gets the first round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Cody picks Tim Means as a live underdog, citing Fialho's poor chin and hesitancy against strikers. He notes Means's crafty striking, wrestling, and experience. He believes Means can outwork Fialho, who has been knocked out by lesser competition.

"I'm gonna take Tim Means for the underdog selection... plus 155 that was available to me."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

Daniel hesitantly picks Fialho based on youth and power, but admits he doesn't trust either fighter. He notes Means is 39 and doesn't react well to shots anymore, while Fialho has three straight KO losses. He thinks Means is the better technical fighter but age and chin are concerns. He expects a violent fight and leans Fialho by KO, but with low confidence.

"probably a FIU win here and then we look to fed him his next fight against like a young gun"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
André Fialho

Lucrative James feels Fialho will knock out Means, citing Means' declining durability and reaction times. He likes Fialho's left hook and calm striking style. He considers betting Fialho inside the distance but notes the line is -135, which he doesn't love. He also mentions Means decision as a possible hedge.

Fialho inside the distance -135 considered; Means decision considered
"I kind of feel like Fialho's gonna knock him out."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2023 (2 days before fight)
André Fialho

The host picks Fialho to win by first-round knockout, despite normally fading him. He notes Fialho's power advantage and Means' questionable durability and age (39). He expects Fialho to land a barrage early and finish Means. He also likes the prop 'fight doesn't go to decision' as a safer play, expecting either an early Fialho KO or a late Means finish.

fight doesn't go to decision
"I think that fialio gets that first round knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 20, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means simply because he refuses to lay chalk on Fialho. He notes both fighters are quick starters and expects a finish. He has no strong confidence but likes the plus money.

"I suppose I'm leaning towards Tim The Dirty Bird means strictly because I could see this fight going both ways and he's got a plus 140 price tag next to him literally nothing more than that."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Sep 19, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru initially leans toward André Fialho but changes his pick to Tim Means after a lengthy internal debate. He worries about Means' age and declining athleticism but has a 'sneaky feeling' Means will catch Fialho. He notes Fialho's tendency to get knocked out and Means' effective one-two combinations. He predicts a TKO in round one, with Means backing Fialho against the cage and landing a one-two. He admits he is hesitant and almost picked Fialho.

TKO round one
"I'm going Tim minz I'm going Tim Means getting a TKO over Andre fiallo he was winning against morono I I knew this would happen dude I told myself not to pick him but here I am..."
LOSS vs Alex Morono
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 2:09 · UFC on ABC: Rozenstruik vs. Almeida · May 13, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Alex Morono 0 40 of 87 45% 45 of 92 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:46
Tim Means 0 33 of 92 35% 42 of 102 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Alex Morono 0 32 of 64 50% 34 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:27
Tim Means 0 18 of 58 31% 27 of 68 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Alex Morono 0 8 of 23 34% 11 of 26 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:19
Tim Means 0 15 of 34 44% 15 of 34 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Alex Morono 40 of 87 45% 16 of 52 18 of 29 6 of 6 30 of 74 10 of 13 0 of 0
Tim Means 33 of 92 35% 29 of 86 4 of 6 0 of 0 31 of 86 2 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Alex Morono 32 of 64 50% 10 of 32 16 of 26 6 of 6 23 of 52 9 of 12 0 of 0
Tim Means 18 of 58 31% 16 of 55 2 of 3 0 of 0 16 of 52 2 of 6 0 of 0
2 Alex Morono 8 of 23 34% 6 of 20 2 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 22 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 15 of 34 44% 13 of 31 2 of 3 0 of 0 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked May 7, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Angelo leans on Morono, noting his clean striking and recent improvements. He says Tim Means is gritty and well-rounded, and that unless you're ranked or dangerous, you shouldn't be a 2-to-1 favorite over Means. He calls it a close fight and is not betting on it.

"I am gonna lean on him for the pick here but holy crap is this a close fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Big Brady is a huge Tim Means fan but has serious concerns about Means' durability at 39 years old and after 48 fights. He notes Means has been getting dropped and finished recently, and questions his focus as he seems more into coaching. Brady compares this to the Morono vs. Cerrone fight, predicting Morono will land a big shot, swarm, and finish Means. He picks Morono by second-round knockout and suggests Means may retire after this fight.

second round knockout
"give me Alex marona to win this fight I'll say he wins this fight by second round knockout I think he knocks out Tim Means on Saturday"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Cody picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and 50 pro fights, leading to durability and speed decline. He notes Means' tendency to gas after the first round and Morono's volume and pressure. He expects Morono to chew away at Means and possibly get a late stoppage. He acknowledges Means' skill but believes his best days are behind him.

"I'm just doubting it on a personal level so we'll take Alex morono to get the job done which pains me because we've been doing this show for like nine years and we've been covering Tim Means fights pretty much …"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Connor picks Morono, agreeing that Means is past his prime and gets hurt too often. He highlights Morono's lateral movement, jab, and counter-punching, which will frustrate Means. He thinks Means will have moments but ultimately lose a decision or get dropped.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Daniel Levi picks Alex Morono but with low confidence, citing Tim Means' age (39-40) and declining durability as the deciding factor. He notes that statistically, Means is competitive and would be a live dog if younger, but Means' recent fights show he can't take damage like before. Levi expects a competitive fight but favors Morono's unorthodox style and durability. He passes on betting due to the price, calling it a dog-or-pass situation.

pass on betting at -225; fight could go to decision or be a war
"I'm gonna pick Alex Morano but it's not a confident pick and it's not something I'm interested it's a dog or pass situation"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 8, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Morono's pressure, pace, and volume will be too much for Means, who has diminished durability at 39. Means is the better technical striker but can't take shots like before. Morono will march forward, land big shots, and likely find a knockout or submission. Means may have moments but Morono's relentless style will overwhelm him.

inside the distance, TKO
"gimme Alex morono inside the distance I'm gonna call it via TKO"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 10, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Morono. He notes that Means gasses after 6-7 minutes and lacks a grappling game. He mentions that Morono might mix in takedowns and fish for a submission, and that the market has moved on that prop. He sees Morono as the rightful favorite.

submission prop (market moved from 9-1 to 6.5-1)
"my biggest struggle yeah I just I just can't get behind the dirty bird at this point he seems to really absolutely guess about six seven minutes into every single fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 9, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Alex Morono

The MMA Guru picks Alex Morono, noting that he had a full training camp and has better hand speed and cardio. He believes Tim Means has slowed down and will struggle with Morono's pace. He predicts a dominant decision or a late finish.

dominant decision win 30-27
"Alex morono I think is going to win this matchup... I see him getting finished on the feet maybe as the fight goes on or maybe there'll be a dominant decision win for morono here 30 27."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked May 11, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Alex Morono

Zane picks Morono, citing Tim Means' age (39) and tendency to get hurt now. He notes that Means' pressure-counter style leaves him vulnerable, and Morono's awkward but effective striking, good footwork, and jab will cause problems. He thinks Morono will land a big counter and potentially drop Means, though a decision is likely.

"I got to take Morono, even if it's by decision, I think it's much more likely that Tim Means gets dropped in a couple of rounds."
LOSS vs Max Griffin
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Kattar vs. Allen · Oct 29, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Max Griffin 0 47 of 115 40% 143 of 215 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:27
Tim Means 1 42 of 78 53% 56 of 96 3 of 6 50% 0 0 5:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Max Griffin 0 17 of 49 34% 21 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Tim Means 1 25 of 42 59% 26 of 43 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Max Griffin 0 20 of 53 37% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Tim Means 0 13 of 29 44% 14 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Max Griffin 0 10 of 13 76% 74 of 79 3 of 5 60% 0 0 1:01
Tim Means 0 4 of 7 57% 16 of 22 2 of 2 100% 0 0 3:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Max Griffin 47 of 115 40% 18 of 64 18 of 36 11 of 15 37 of 103 7 of 9 3 of 3
Tim Means 42 of 78 53% 25 of 52 9 of 15 8 of 11 35 of 66 1 of 1 6 of 11
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Max Griffin 17 of 49 34% 8 of 27 3 of 14 6 of 8 13 of 43 4 of 6 0 of 0
Tim Means 25 of 42 59% 16 of 29 7 of 9 2 of 4 20 of 34 1 of 1 4 of 7
2 Max Griffin 20 of 53 37% 7 of 32 8 of 15 5 of 6 20 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Means 13 of 29 44% 5 of 16 2 of 6 6 of 7 13 of 29 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Max Griffin 10 of 13 76% 3 of 5 7 of 7 0 of 1 4 of 7 3 of 3 3 of 3
Tim Means 4 of 7 57% 4 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 3 0 of 0 2 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Max Griffin vs. Tim Means

Round 1
An interesting, all-action welterweight contest will serve as the co-main attraction of this Fight Night event, with a storied veteran battling it out against a man fighting his way back to contention. At 38 years of age, Means (32-13-1, 1 NC; 14-10, 1 NC UFC) is still cruising in the division, with three wins in his last four including a few stellar performances over Nicolas Dalby and Mike Perry in recent memory. While his adversary Griffin (18-9, 6-7 UFC) started off going just 3-6 in the Octagon, he has turned things around as of late with a similar 3-1 stretch as Means. Drawing the assignment is referee Dan Miragliotta, and the 170-pounders do not touch gloves as they want to immediately get down to business. They start trading almost immediately, with rangy punches and chopping low kicks to match the other. Griffin fires a left hand over the top, and a right hand knocks Means down to his backside. Griffin leaps on top to finish the job, and Means latches on to an armbar off his back to keep his man honest and survive the onslaught. As Means continues to work, he turns to his side, grabs hold of a leg and drives Griffin back to the wall. Means separates, and he appears to have his bearings back as he measures a high kick from his lead leg and a body kick from his rear. Means just misses with a knee as Griffin bears down on him with a combination, and he works the calf to slow down the advancing Griffin. “The Dirty Bird” whiffs on a one-two into a head kick, but the calf kick that follows does connect. Griffin throws fire with a right hand to stun Means for a moment, as he chains it into a power punch that Means tanks seemingly without issue. Means continues to do work on the upper calf, making investments as he also strikes the body. Griffin snaps out a jab that gest Means’ attention, and a right hand that follows it stings Means. Means gives chase with a high kick, and Griffin walks through a pair of open-handed slaps so that he can shoot in for a double. Means keeps his balance as they remain clinched until the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 2
The welterweights meet in the middle, and Means strikes first in the form of a slapping low kick. The legs from Means continue to fly, and he draws Griffin into a brief but fierce slugfest. The punches turn to slaps for Means, which could signify some sort of damage to a hand, but he shucks any of those concerns by throwing a punch that pops Griffin in the chops. Means keeps Griffin guessing with head kicks, and Griffin finds his way in to land a heavy low kick. Means slaps him upside the head like a Diaz brother, only they are intended as damaging strikes and not disrespectful ones. Griffin jabs his way in, and he blocks a head kick once closing in. Griffin intercepts a rushing Means with a kick to the lead calf, and Means winces and tries to pay Griffin back. Means cuts his opponent off as he advances, and this slows the offense coming back his direction. Means works the body with a left and a right, and he slides back to plant the ball of his foot on the breadbasket before Griffin can land him. The two trade body kicks, and Means jumps at his adversary with a knee that glances off the side. Griffin considers a level change, and as this fails, he hops back. Means hammers a low kick on the inside of the knee, and this slows the movement momentarily. Means walks face-first into a right hand, and this rocks Means and separates him from his balance. As Means falls to the ground, Griffin finds himself taking top position while punching the side. They trade short blows as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin

Round 3
Means comes out of his corner aggressively, and he strikes his way into a takedown effort. Griffin stuffs it and drops to his knees, and Means smashes his own knee into the sternum. Griffin reels and whirls around to counter Means’ takedown with his own attempt, and he manages to suck Means’ legs out and drag him to the floor. Means squeezes tightly to keep Griffin pinned to him, and he lands several heel strikes to the thigh as he constantly remains busy off his back with irritating blows. Griffin remains heavy with top pressure and not willing to sit up and fall into potential submission danger, as he wisely grinds out and considers a guard pass. Means turns to his side in an effort to escape, but Griffin hangs on to keep him trapped. Means scoots his back to the wall, only for “Pain” to yank him back down. When Griffin postures up to rain down blows, Means attacks with a submission attempt that he uses to stand back up. Griffin pressures him against the wall and locks his hands with a double, and this sets Means on his seat again much to the disappointment of “The Dirty Bird.” Means continues to smack Griffin with short, frustrating strikes to the body and head, all while working his way to his knees to get upright. Griffin pursues a single, and he lowers his head right into a knee that Means cracks him with. Means takes Griffin down to turn the tables, and he rips the body with a fierce knee before securing a double with seconds to spare. For one final exclamation point, Means lifts his opponent up and slams him down hard. The fight comes to an end.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means (29-28 Griffin)
Noah Gagnon scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Griffin (30-27 Griffin)

The Official Result
Max Griffin def. Tim Means via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 30-27)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Big Brady picks Max Griffin to win by second-round knockout. He notes that Griffin's power has improved recently, as seen in his knockout of Aalon Cruz, while Means' durability has declined with age and damage. He mentions that Means has been hurt in recent fights by lesser punchers, and Griffin's durability is excellent. He expects Griffin to land hard shots and finish Means.

Griffin wins by second-round knockout
"give me Max Griffin by knockout I'll say like a second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Cody acknowledges Tim Means' plus money appeal but points to Means' durability issues at 38 years old and his tendency to fade in later rounds. He notes that Means has been relying more on wrestling as he ages, but Max Griffin has good takedown defense (as seen against Neil Magny) and a solid jab. Cody expects Griffin to beat Means to the jab, stuff takedowns, and eventually land a big shot or win two rounds. He is not betting the fight but picks Griffin.

"I gotta stay with Max Griffin although I don't fault you for maybe taking that live Underdog shot on Timmy so I'm not taking the shot on Timmy it's 38 years like it isn't it isn't very pretty at this …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Daniel Levi picks Max Griffin, citing his momentum, confidence, and aspirations to break into the top 15. He notes Griffin's dangerous striking and recent close fight with Neil Magny. He questions Tim Means' durability and suggests Means may be near retirement. However, he has no interest in laying the -190 price and will just watch.

"I'm a pickaxe Griffin I just don't have any interest in laying the price so I'm personally gonna sit back and enjoy two true vets of the game go at it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Jacob picks Tim Means, expecting him to survive Griffin's early power and then wear him down with pace, pressure, and wrestling. He compares it to Griffin's fight with Neil Magny, where Griffin faded. Jacob thinks Means wins by decision.

Tim Means by decision
"I gotta go with the dirty bird Tim Means to get it done"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 27, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Max Griffin

Griffin has athletic advantages and more left in the tank compared to Means, who is slowing down. Means has better combinations but Griffin's power could catch him. Griffin by knockout at +250 is appealing, but no bet at the current moneyline. Live betting Griffin if Means has early success is a potential strategy.

Griffin by knockout +250
"Griffin via knock it at plus 250 definitely tickles my fancy I like that spot but no bet for me at that minus 200 range"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 26, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul leans toward Tim Means as a dog, expecting a close stand-up fight where Means may get a hot start. However, he admits Means' cardio and durability are concerns, and he does not love the bet. He picks Means for the show but says he won't bet it, noting the over 2.5 rounds at -160 seems about right.

Over 2.5 rounds at -160 (mentioned as about right)
"I'm leaning as a dog or pass but I don't think it's gonna get my money I'll pick Tim Means for the purposes of this show but trust me I don't love it I'm not gonna bet it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 25, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Max Griffin

The MMA Guru picks Max Griffin over Tim Means, believing Griffin's calf kicks will be effective against Means' heavy lead leg. He notes Griffin's improved boxing and ability to drop opponents, as seen against Neil Magny. He thinks Means, at 38 and coming off a loss to Kevin Holland, will struggle with Griffin's pressure and predicts Griffin wins by 29-28 decision, taking over as the fight goes on.

"I'm going Max Griffin... I love the calf kicks of Max Griffin against Tim Means"
LOSS vs Kevin Holland
Submission (D'Arce choke) R2 1:28 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Emmett · Jun 18, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Kevin Holland 0 21 of 46 45% 25 of 52 2 of 5 40% 0 0 1:30
Tim Means 0 36 of 90 40% 53 of 109 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Kevin Holland 0 14 of 34 41% 18 of 40 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:30
Tim Means 0 27 of 70 38% 44 of 89 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
2 Kevin Holland 0 7 of 12 58% 7 of 12 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Tim Means 0 9 of 20 45% 9 of 20 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Kevin Holland 21 of 46 45% 8 of 25 11 of 17 2 of 4 20 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 36 of 90 40% 26 of 71 3 of 9 7 of 10 33 of 85 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Kevin Holland 14 of 34 41% 7 of 22 6 of 10 1 of 2 13 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Tim Means 27 of 70 38% 21 of 57 2 of 6 4 of 7 24 of 65 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Kevin Holland 7 of 12 58% 1 of 3 5 of 7 1 of 2 7 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Tim Means 9 of 20 45% 5 of 14 1 of 3 3 of 3 9 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Kevin Holland vs. Tim Means
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Holland (-275), Means (+220)

Round 1
With the loss of Cerrone vs. Lauzon (again), this welterweight banger has been elevated to the co-main event slot. UFC President Dana White should keep his checkbook handy to write out a bonus for this one (and the rest of the night, to boot), if the histories of “The Dirty Bird” Means (32-12-1, 1 NC; 14-9, 1 NC UFC) and “Trailblazer” Holland (22-7, 1 NC; 9-4, 1 NC UFC) are any indication of what to expect now. Identical knockout rates of 59% are celebrated by both men, and they have both landed exactly five submissions to their credit as well. Good-spirited action and excitement is about to come, and referee Kerry Hatley practically has to keep them back in their corners before sprinting out to battle. The 170ers do touch gloves, and Means uses a push kick to the knee to back Holland away from him early. Holland paws out with a left over the head, and Means walks in to brawl. Holland steps back and rips a left to the jaw on the inside, and he lands again to force Means into a double-leg takedown attempt. The crowd starts to boo immediately, and Holland shoves him back and lets go with a left. Holland powers off the cage wall with a flurry of fists, and Means greets him with a few of his own. Means takes a few punches on the inside to land a few, and “Trailblazer” slashes with a clean elbow over the top to break them up. Holland goes to the body with a side kick and then up high with a head kick, and he charges in with a knee right down Broadway. Means is tough and does not flinch, and instead spins with a wheel kick. Means catches a knee from his opponent, and he lifts Holland up and sets him down on the mat. Holland springs up and connects with three blistering punches to sting Means. Means tries to stop the blows from scoring by tying Holland up and pressing him into the wall, and he gathers himself and works the thigh with knees. Holland pushes away to take the center of the cage back, and he sticks out several jabs and a head kick. Means blows his nose out from the kick, and Holland puts three punches on him to knock Means’ head around. They talk to one another with seemingly friendly banter about hitting each other, and Holland takes a few steps back to get off three kicks in rapid succession. Holland chains together a few punches, and Means replies and draws a huge smile out of “Trailblazer.” They slug it out recklessly and entertainingly, and Holland resets first so he can let loose with a high kick. Holland splits the guard with a left hand, and Means is hurt. Two more punches from the Texan connect cleanly, forcing a takedown effort from Means. Holland hits the mat and powers right back up, and the round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Holland
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Holland

Round 2
Gloves get touched by the action-packed welterweights before engaging, and they both score side kicks to start off the round. Means targets the body, and Holland tags him with four or five punches before Means can react. Holland spins with a back fist that comes up short, and when he turns about, Holland goes to his lead leg. Means blocks several punches, and Holland swarms him with punches before measuring Means with punches as Means shells up against the wall ready to counter.
Holland lets Means off the hook so that he can fight at his safer range, and when back in his preferred distance, he clocks Means with a right hand that strips Means legs away almost instantly. Before falling over, Means leans into a takedown try, but he leaves his neck exposed. They do not even hit the mat before Holland uses his long arms to snake around the neck, where he snatches up a smooth brabo choke. It is tight in a hurry, and when the two land on the ground, Means turns to his side but is in even worse position than before. Knowing his goose is cooked, Means does not fight it any further or risk going out from this blood choke, and he wisely surrenders.
“Trailblazer” has announced himself as a force to be reckoned with in his new division, and the Texas crowd bellows its affection for its local fighter.

The Official Result
Kevin Holland def. Tim Means R2 1:28 via Submission (Brabo Choke)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 12, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Angelo picks Kevin Holland, noting his striking accuracy and power. He acknowledges Holland's poor takedown defense but believes Tim Means doesn't have the raw athleticism or power to exploit it like others. He thinks the 3-to-1 odds are crazy but still picks Holland.

"i do think kevin holland gets this done and he pulls off the win the three to one odds kevin allen's almost a three to one favorite i think those are crazy to me"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Big Brady picks Kevin Holland to win by second-round knockout. He notes Holland has a significant reach advantage and power, while Means is older with diminishing durability and chin. He believes Means' best chance is grappling, but Means rarely implements that game plan, and Holland's BJJ black belt and improved get-up game should keep the fight standing where Holland can knock him out.

second round knockout
"I think kevin holland goes out here and gets a knockout in texas his home state so yeah i like kevin holland i like kevin holland to win by knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Cody is high on Kevin Holland at 170, citing his improved takedown defense, BJJ black belt, and size advantage. He thinks Tim Means lacks the wrestling and cardio to exploit Holland, and Holland will chip away for a late finish or decision. He notes Holland's guard is active and Means' recent wins are over lower-level competition.

Kevin Holland by third round finish or 29-28 decision
"i think kevin holland just breaks him away over time and gets that finish"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 16, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Daniel Levi picks Kevin Holland to win via an opportunistic finish, citing Holland's unorthodox style and ability to create chaos. He acknowledges Tim Means is well-rounded and may have early success, but believes Holland's length and creativity will prevail. However, he is not confident Holland covers the -300 spread, noting Holland's takedown defense issues and that Means can mix in takedowns. Levi sees it as a high-variance fight where Holland finds a way, but the price is too steep for a comfortable bet.

opportunistic finish; Holland -300 is too high; Means +250 has value
"i see kevin holland being opportunistic finding a way to make it happen i just don't know how it's gonna be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Hesitant picked Jun 15, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

Paul agrees Holland should win but is wary of the -275 price. He notes Holland's size, reach, and guard are advantages, but the high favorite line gives him pause. He doesn't love the matchup for Means but isn't sure he'll bet Holland at that price.

"kevin holland at minus 275 sends shivers down my spine"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Kevin Holland

The MMA Guru picks Kevin Holland, calling it straightforward. He notes Holland's reach advantage and youth, and believes Tim Means will get cracked and hurt. He predicts Holland will win by KO via elbows in the clinch in the first round, similar to his win over Anthony Hernandez. He doesn't worry about Holland's grappling at welterweight.

first round elbow ko
"i'm gonna go with kevin holland pretty straightforward here... kevin holland elbow ko first round against tim means"
WIN vs Nicolas Dalby
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 0 53 of 93 56% 94 of 134 1 of 4 25% 0 0 8:03
Nicolas Dalby 0 54 of 116 46% 84 of 146 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:31
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 0 15 of 26 57% 38 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:07
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 20 55% 21 of 30 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Tim Means 0 29 of 49 59% 35 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:45
Nicolas Dalby 0 24 of 60 40% 28 of 64 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:17
3 Tim Means 0 9 of 18 50% 21 of 30 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:11
Nicolas Dalby 0 19 of 36 52% 35 of 52 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:05
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 53 of 93 56% 20 of 55 29 of 33 4 of 5 32 of 70 17 of 19 4 of 4
Nicolas Dalby 54 of 116 46% 37 of 93 13 of 19 4 of 4 35 of 88 19 of 28 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 15 of 26 57% 6 of 16 7 of 8 2 of 2 9 of 20 4 of 4 2 of 2
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 20 55% 8 of 16 1 of 2 2 of 2 6 of 11 5 of 9 0 of 0
2 Tim Means 29 of 49 59% 12 of 30 15 of 16 2 of 3 18 of 36 9 of 11 2 of 2
Nicolas Dalby 24 of 60 40% 17 of 49 5 of 9 2 of 2 20 of 53 4 of 7 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 9 of 18 50% 2 of 9 7 of 9 0 of 0 5 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 19 of 36 52% 12 of 28 7 of 8 0 of 0 9 of 24 10 of 12 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolas Dalby vs. Tim Means

Round 1
Up next at welterweight, the man formerly known as “Lokomotivo” now sports a fancy new nickname of “Danish Dynamite” as Dalby (19-3-1, 2 NC; 3-2-1, 1 NC UFC) squares off with longtime vet and longtime nicknamed “The Dirty Bird” Means (31-12-1, 1 NC; 11-9, 1 NC UFC). Action is the name of the game here, and referee Jason Herzog may have his hands full as these two throw down. There is no chance of a glove touch, as these two 170ers are intense and ready to start brawling. Means fires off a head kick early, and Dalby eats it on the chin and starts to brawl. Both men throw caution to the wind immediately, and they hammer one another with alternating shots. As Dalby closes in, Means hits a takedown and puts the Danish fighter on his back. Means passes to side control as he works elbows from on top, slowly and methodically working his way to either advance to mount or otherwise do some damage. When Dalby holds on to him to tie him up, Means slams him down with his chest. Means crawls Dalby over to the cage wall, where he starts smacking his foe in the face with heavy punches. Dalby gets to his knees as he looks to walk up the fence, and Means keeps him grounded and lands some punches. Dalby is practically gasping for air three minutes in, although it does not necessarily mean that he is spent. Means knees him in the chest when he stands up, and Dalby breaks free and bounces around to get his blood flowing again. Means kicks him in the body and fires off a few punches, and Dalby dances out of the way. “Danish Dynamite” looks to explode with a right hand across the forward bow, but Means sees it coming, parries it and gets shoved into the fence. A few strikes for Means have opened up a cut near the bridge of the nose on Dalby’s right eyebrows, and a sharp one-two nearly knocks Dalby off of his feet. “The Dirty Bird” keeps it dirty in the clinch, and he gets off an elbow or two before they break. Dalby shoots in for a takedown right as the round ends, but it does not succeed.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means

Round 2
Dalby fires off a few punches before rushing in to a takedown attempt, and Means is there to thump him in the body a few times. The welterweights tie up against the fence and score short punches, before breaking free. Dalby gets off a single leg kick, and then he changes it up to land flush to the body. Means aims a few punches up top, and a left hand splits the guard. Means sees its success and nails Dalby again, and one more gets Dalby’s attention. Means cracks Dalby on the chin, and the Danish fighter has quite a beard on him as he walks through everything to land a few of his own. Means targets the body and head indiscriminately, and Dalby walks in with a chain of punches into a knee. Dalby shoots in but gets shucked away just in time, and when they get back up, Dalby leaps forward with a left hand. Dalby works two right hands one after the other, and Means greets him with a left hand to the liver. Dalby slings a head kick, and they crash the pocket and score some body shots. When “Danish Dynamite” looses another body kick, Means rushes in to strike before clinching. Breaking free, Dalby slings kicks high and low, but Means’ responsive head kick is much more effective. Means kicks Dalby’s leg out from beneath him, and “The Dirty Bird” hops on top in side control to deal some damage. Means keeps a heavy top pressure to ride out the round, using a few short shoulder strikes when Dalby tries to wall-walk with his feet. Means keeps this position until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Means
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Means
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Means

Round 3
Means sprints out of his corner to throw a body kick and a left hand, and Dalby is there to fire right back. In a wild exchange, Dalby nails Means with a right hand, smashing the nose of “The Dirty Bird” and hurting him for the first time. Means stumbles back to the wall, and Dalby wraps him up against the fence while flirting with trips. Means spins him around and considers a single leg takedown, but he cannot ground the Danish fighter. Means backs off and re-engages, pressing Dalby tightly into the cage. This stalemate continues for quite some time, as both men look to clear any cobwebs. Dalby knees Means in the face once to break free, and he clips Means again with a strike. Dalby throws everything he has at Means, but the American grabs hold of him and pins him back to the cage wall. Means changes levels for a single, and he chains it into a double leg takedown, but neither succeed. All the while, precious seconds for Dalby are ticking off the clock, who is trying to break free but cannot escape the grip of “The Dirty Bird.” Means scores a few short punches to the body, grinding Dalby out and landing enough to stave off any referee intervention. When Dalby breaks the grip, Means gives him a shove into the fencing, where he clinches up again. At the 10-second clapper, Dalby tries desperately to get off, hurting Means again. Means gloms on to him, tying him up to the final bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
John Brannigan scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Means)

The Official Result
Tim Means def. Nicolas Dalby via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo picks Tim Means, citing his high-volume striking, underrated wrestling, and ability to avoid damage. He notes Means picks his shots and takes opponents down when needed. He expects Means to win a decision. He likes less on Means and more on Dalby for the monkey knife fight line.

"tim means is my pick here i think tim needs sort of picks him apart take him down takes him down when he needs to and rides out a decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady picks Tim Means to win by decision, citing superior striking stats (5.16 sig strikes/min, 48% accuracy, 61% striking defense) and Dalby's negative strike differential. He notes Dalby has been dropped in four of seven UFC fights but never KO'd. He thinks Means will out-volume Dalby on the feet, as Dalby rarely wrestles (only one takedown in last five fights). He is confident Means is the better striker.

by decision
"i will take 10 means to win i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Cody picks Dalby as a live underdog. He notes Dalby's toughness and heart, and that Means has lost as a favorite before. He points out that Means had a fight cancelled last week, which could disrupt his preparation. Cody also mentions Dalby's reach advantage and that Means is 37 with wear and tear. He thinks Dalby can grind Means against the cage and take over late if Means doesn't finish early.

"i'm gonna officially go for the prp sake dolby because again what am i going to do pick all these favorites like i'm recognizing this as a dog with a chance"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Jacob picks Nicolas Dalby, jokingly citing that Dalby fought Darren Till to a draw in 2015 and outstruck him. He seems to be half-joking but picks Dalby to win. He does not provide serious technical analysis.

"dalby in 2015 bought the best striking middleweight in the world to a draw and outstruck him 111 to 49. we're talking about the greatest middleweight gonna go down of all time one of the greatest strikers of all time …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Means is a much better striker with higher output than Dalby. If Means keeps the fight vertical, he will light up Dalby. Dalby has knockout power but Means' durability is a concern; however, Means should avoid getting knocked out. Means' efficiency and tight striking will earn him a decision. Dalby's speed and timing could pose issues, but Means is the more proven striker.

Means by decision plus 205
"I think that if means is able to keep the swipe vertical which i think he will he's going to light up dolby like a christmas tree himself... I do like tim means here i like tim means actually by …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means, citing Means' better striking and underrated wrestling. He notes Means was supposed to fight last week and had a cancelled bout, but that might not be a big issue. He thinks Means has the skills to win, but acknowledges Dalby's toughness and that Means can fade. He is not confident and suggests watching weigh-ins.

"means for me but you know having a fight last week having it cancelled a lot of moving parts definitely uh tune into the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru picks Tim Means by first-round submission (d'arce choke), citing his crisp boxing and ability to land straight shots down the pipe. He identifies defensive holes in Dalby's striking, as seen in the Jesse Ronson fight, and believes Means will hurt Dalby, prompting a bad takedown that leads to a choke. He trusts Means' composure and experience.

first round submission, d'arce choke
"i'm gonna go with tim means i think he's gonna get a first round ko over nicholas dalby"
WIN vs Mike Perry
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 255: Figueiredo vs. Perez · Nov 21, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Tim Means 0 64 of 161 39% 69 of 166 1 of 5 20% 2 0 3:08
Mike Perry 0 128 of 192 66% 143 of 207 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Tim Means 0 14 of 31 45% 14 of 31 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:22
Mike Perry 0 27 of 40 67% 30 of 43 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:09
2 Tim Means 0 20 of 60 33% 20 of 60 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Mike Perry 0 44 of 60 73% 44 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Tim Means 0 30 of 70 42% 35 of 75 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:33
Mike Perry 0 57 of 92 61% 69 of 104 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Tim Means 64 of 161 39% 44 of 134 8 of 12 12 of 15 62 of 157 2 of 4 0 of 0
Mike Perry 128 of 192 66% 86 of 147 26 of 28 16 of 17 121 of 184 6 of 7 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Tim Means 14 of 31 45% 7 of 24 3 of 3 4 of 4 13 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 27 of 40 67% 18 of 31 7 of 7 2 of 2 24 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Tim Means 20 of 60 33% 11 of 46 3 of 6 6 of 8 20 of 59 0 of 1 0 of 0
Mike Perry 44 of 60 73% 28 of 43 10 of 10 6 of 7 42 of 58 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Tim Means 30 of 70 42% 26 of 64 2 of 3 2 of 3 29 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
Mike Perry 57 of 92 61% 40 of 73 9 of 11 8 of 8 55 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 18, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady hesitantly picks Tim Means to win by decision. He thinks Means is the more technical and well-rounded fighter, but has durability concerns after being knocked out recently. He notes Perry's headspace is questionable and he didn't look great against Gall, but Means is on short notice.

big pass, need to see weigh-ins
"i'm going to go with means i'm going to go with the dude that probably has more motivation for this fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Daniel picks Means, citing his superior boxing and overall MMA skills. He notes Perry's lack of head movement and poor corner situation. He believes Means can stay disciplined, use volume, and mix in takedowns to avoid Perry's power. He thinks Means should be the favorite.

"i'm gonna go with tim means to get it done and i think he makes it two wins in a row here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 17, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

The host picks Tim Means to win by decision, noting his superior skill set and ability to keep Perry at range with leg kicks and teeps. He is skeptical of Perry's power and thinks Means can outpoint him. He would only bet Means if the line reaches plus 150.

"I'm taking Tim Means to win this fight via decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 15, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Mike Perry

The MMA Guru picks Mike Perry to win by unanimous decision (29-28), but expresses worry. He notes Means took the fight on short notice, and Perry has a full camp now. He expects Perry to use takedowns and outwork Means in the later rounds, but admits Means is dangerous and a full-camp Means might beat Perry.

"i'm going with mike perry by unanimous decision 29 28 but i'm worried"
Nicolas Dalby - Fight History
CANCEL vs Jeremiah Wells
LU
Lucrative James Expert picked May 10, 2026 (6 days before fight)

This fight was not discussed in the transcript. No pick was made.

Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Tsarukyan vs. Hooker · Nov 22, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 26 of 63 41% 87 of 140 0 of 2 0% 0 1 6:29
Saygid Izagakhmaev 0 20 of 34 58% 65 of 88 4 of 10 40% 0 0 5:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 5 of 15 33% 28 of 47 0 of 1 0% 0 0 3:06
Saygid Izagakhmaev 0 7 of 12 58% 42 of 52 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:53
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 3 of 7 42% 25 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:55
Saygid Izagakhmaev 0 2 of 4 50% 8 of 14 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:47
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 41 43% 34 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:28
Saygid Izagakhmaev 0 11 of 18 61% 15 of 22 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 26 of 63 41% 13 of 41 8 of 16 5 of 6 11 of 40 13 of 21 2 of 2
Saygid Izagakhmaev 20 of 34 58% 11 of 23 9 of 10 0 of 1 8 of 19 10 of 12 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 5 of 15 33% 0 of 6 0 of 3 5 of 6 3 of 12 2 of 3 0 of 0
Saygid Izagakhmaev 7 of 12 58% 3 of 7 4 of 4 0 of 1 1 of 5 4 of 4 2 of 3
2 Nicolas Dalby 3 of 7 42% 2 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 4 1 of 1 2 of 2
Saygid Izagakhmaev 2 of 4 50% 0 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 41 43% 11 of 29 7 of 12 0 of 0 8 of 24 10 of 17 0 of 0
Saygid Izagakhmaev 11 of 18 61% 8 of 15 3 of 3 0 of 0 7 of 14 4 of 4 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolas Dalby vs. Saygid Izagakhmaev
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Izagakhmaev (-300); Dalby (+240)

Round 1
At the age of 41 and on his first losing streak in years, “Danish Dynamite” Dalby (23-6-1, 2 NC; 7-5-1, 1 NC UFC) knows that his back is against the wall in this welterweight encounter. Despite his lack of success lately, at least he has been competing. This will be the first time One Championship vet Izagakhmaev (22-2, 0-0 UFC) has fought in just about three years, a training partner of new welterweight champ Islam Makhachev. This classic matchup of Denmark vs. Russia will be officiated by referee Lukasz Bosacki, and the bout starts without a fist bump in sight.
Dolby takes the steam out of the Russian engine immediately by crashing forward into his personal space to engage in a clinch. He proceeds to knee Izagakhmaev in the thigh again and again, with short but irritating strikes smacking him on either side. It takes less than a minute in this position for the crowd to turn on these two fighters, even with Izagakhmaev giving back Dalby nearly as many knees as he absorbs. Dalby considers outside trips on both legs, and Izagakhmaev lifts his foot up without concern of getting grounded. Bosacki claps for the two to do more than this, and Dalby transitions to a single-leg takedown attempt. Izagakhmaev stands Dalby up, and there is a partial cup strike from one of the knees that is almost called but Bosacki steps back. As this stalemate continues, Bosacki separates them.
Dalby backs off and pitches a low kick and then one high. He mixes up his targets low and high, keeping Izagakhmaev guessing with his varied offense. Izagakhmaev offers jabs while Dalby is erratically striking him, and he shoots for a takedown that Dalby turns around into his own attempt. Izagakhmaev backs himself to the wall to defend it, and Dalby is glad to engage in this tie-up. Izagakhmaev counters a trip attempt to hurl Dalby to his back, and he lands in three-quarter mount. Dalby posts off his right arm in hopes of escaping, and Izagakhmaev wraps him up and drills him in the chest with a knee. Dalby works his way back upright and turns Izagakhmaev’s back to the fence, and clinch strikes from both sides are where this grueling round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
The round begins with a Dalby head kick attempt. This opens Izagakhmaev up to blocking and charging ahead so he can hit a clean takedown within seconds. Dalby grabs the fence to pull himself up to his seat, and he works his way to his feet methodically without taking any noteworthy damage. Dalby huffs and puffs to stand up and turn Izagakhmaev to the fence, taking a knee or two to the body but giving them right back. Dalby stalls out the Russian again in the clinch, kneeing him regularly and taking a few back. Izagakhmaev drops down to pursue a double-leg takedown, and even with Dalby sprawling correctly, Izagakhmaev still manages to put Dalby on his seat for a moment. Dalby pops right back up, and he thwarts the mat return effort and turns Izagakhmaev’s back to the fence again. Dalby firmly embraces the grind, holding Izagakhmaev there until Izagakhmaev is tired of being stuck against the fence.
Dalby tries to take the fight down in the open cage, and Izagakhmaev uses that against him and manages to not only control Dalby, but actually take his back in the process. Izagakhmaev secures a body triangle around the waist and starts to fish for chokes. Dalby uses a two-on-one grip on the Russian’s right hand to prevent anything from coming together. After holding steady in this position for a while, “Lokomotivo” twists out at the right moment to turn over and find himself in Izagakhmaev’s guard. Dalby rains down punches and elbows in hopes of turning the momentum of the match in his favor and possibly swaying the judges, doing so until the bell rings.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Izagakhmaev

Round 3
The welterweights wade towards one another, and Dalby once more fires off a head kick to close the distance. He uses this kick and a subsequent right hand to get up close and personal with the Russian to re-engage his clinch. Dalby uses his knees in the clinch to work Izagakhmaev over, and he stops Izagakhmaev from getting off a takedown. Izagakhmaev breaks free for a second, only for Dalby to jam him up again. Once more, Izagakhmaev gains some space, and he puts a one-two on the chin of the Danish man. Dalby loops a head kick at him and tries to tie him up in the center of the cage, succeeding in doing so to put the Russian on the wire. Both fighters land a few solid clinch strikes, and Dalby keeps after Izagakhmaev with heavy pressure.
Izagakhmaev look to turn the tables with a takedown shot, and Dalby sprawls and puts his back to the fence for defense. Dalby fights off the multiple attempts and allows himself to hit his seat so he can circle around and grab Izagakhmaev from behind. Izagakhmaev gets out of that position and pursues a double, and Dalby knees him square in the face. Izagakhmaev drops down to a knee so that he does not take more of those, and Dalby thinks about a front choke but does not have the horsepower to get it. Dalby dirty boxes Izagakhmaev up until Izagakhmaev breaks off, and Dalby meanders after him, swarming him with labored offense. Dalby’s swings and knees may be off-kilter, but they are landing while Izagakhmaev is not. They lob strikes at one another until the round ends, and when the final horn blares, Izagakhmaev rips out his mouthpiece and tosses it to the floor in frustration.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Saygid Izagakhmaev via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Saygid Izagakhmaev

Angelo picks Saygid Izagakhmaev (Side Gig) to dominate Nicolas Dalby. He notes Izagakhmaev is a powerful striker with patient pressure and explosive power, plus effective wrestling. Dalby, an aging karate-style striker, is hittable and has low takedown accuracy. Angelo sees this as a showcase fight for the prospect, expecting Izagakhmaev to finish or drown Dalby with wrestling.

Odds are closer than they should be; expects Izagakhmaev to run through Dalby.
"I fully expect Side Gig to dominate. Whether he can knock out Dolby or just drown him with the wrestling, it doesn't matter."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Saygid Izagakhmaev

Big Brady picks Saygid Izagakhmaev (Kakhramonov) by decision, citing his well-rounded skills and Dalby's age (41) and recent knockout loss. He expects Kakhramonov to land big shots, mix in takedowns, and win a decision, though a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions the judges may favor Kakhramonov.

decision
"I'm leaning Kakhramonov by decision."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Saygid Izagakhmaev

Cody picks Saygid Izagakhmaev, noting his youth and wrestling. He believes Dalby is old and has declined, and that Izagakhmaev can take him down and control him. Cody thinks the location in Qatar favors Izagakhmaev.

"Give me is a Gakmayv, who I'm actually excited to see debut in the UFC."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor agrees, picking Dalby. He notes that Izagakhmaev's game is not pretty and he has technical gaps. He says Dalby knows how he wins fights and is committed to pressure. He thinks Izagakhmaev could blast Dalby off his feet, but he knows what to expect from Dalby and it's a brutally hard fight.

"I'm going to go with Dolby too. I worry that he, the, the Brandy Brown lost might be the beginning of the end for him, then it has to be right around the corner, but then again, we were saying …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Hesitant picked Nov 16, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Lucrative James picks Nicolas Dalby as an underdog, questioning Izagakhmaev's high odds. He notes Dalby's toughness and experience, and Izagakhmaev's long layoff and submission loss. He believes Dalby can win a decision or even finish. He sees value in the underdog.

"I'm actually going to pick Nicholas Dolby in this fight."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Nov 18, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Saygid Izagakhmaev

Izagakhmaev is a Dagestani wrestler with a smothering style, but he hasn't competed in three years. Dalby is durable and has a cardio edge, making the fight close. The prediction is Izagakhmaev by decision, but a sprinkle on Dalby at plus odds is considered due to the wide line.

sprinkle on Dalby at +250; over 2.5 rounds
"The prediction is actually going to be the newcomer Isaggak Mayv... I might take a little bit of a sprinkle on Dobby considering how wide the odds are."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Saygid Izagakhmaev

Paul picks Saygid Izagakhmaev, citing his wrestling and youth. He notes that Dalby is 41 and has looked washed. Paul believes Izagakhmaev's takedowns and control will be too much.

"I'm back in the rush and probably just falling into the trap."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 19, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Saygid Izagakhmaev

The MMA Guru picks Saygid Izagakhmaev over Nicolas Dalby, citing Izagakhmaev's wicked submission game and experience in One FC. He notes Dalby's recent KO loss and age. He believes Izagakhmaev's ability to go to decisions and his prime age (31) will be too much for Dalby. He predicts a 29-28 decision win.

win by decision 29-28
"I'm going to go with Said Isgakhmaev in this matchup. I'm going to say that he wins this one by decision, 29-28."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Nov 21, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Zane picks Dalby despite his age, noting that Izagakhmaev has been inactive for three years and lost to Carlson Harris and Elias Silverio. He says Dalby is a tough, pressure fighter who makes opponents miserable. He worries that the Randy Brown loss might be the beginning of the end, but Dalby has shown remarkable resilience.

Odds: Dalby opened +330, now +265; Izagakhmaev opened -400, now -315. Zane says it shouldn't be that wide.
"I just have to go with Dolby. I know he's old, but, uh, really the only truly bad result is that lost to Randy Brown."
LOSS vs Randy Brown
KO R2 1:39 · UFC on ESPN: Machado Garry vs. Prates · Apr 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Randy Brown 1 54 of 114 47% 58 of 118 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 1 26 of 74 35% 40 of 90 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Randy Brown 0 22 of 52 42% 26 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Nicolas Dalby 1 15 of 39 38% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:22
2 Randy Brown 1 32 of 62 51% 32 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 35 31% 11 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Randy Brown 54 of 114 47% 45 of 103 5 of 7 4 of 4 54 of 114 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 26 of 74 35% 12 of 52 1 of 3 13 of 19 25 of 72 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Randy Brown 22 of 52 42% 19 of 48 1 of 2 2 of 2 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 15 of 39 38% 6 of 23 0 of 1 9 of 15 14 of 37 0 of 0 1 of 2
2 Randy Brown 32 of 62 51% 26 of 55 4 of 5 2 of 2 32 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 35 31% 6 of 29 1 of 2 4 of 4 11 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Randy Brown vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Brown (-238), Dalby (+195)

Round 1
A clash of well-traveled welterweights keeps the main card pushing. Looking to get back in the win column, Brown (19-6, 13-6 UFC) will have to outlast the ultra-durable Dane Dalby (23-5-1, 2 NC; 7-4-1, 1 NC UFC) as the latter has never been finished. Referee Keith Peterson is prepped and ready should this go the full duration, and he commences the nonsense-free bout as Brown sprints at his opponent without a glove touch in sight. Brown pulls back before crashing into his opponent, and he repositions himself to his preferred distant striking range with significant reach in his favor on the hands and legs. He uses those long arms to set up jabs and stay away from Dalby’s reaching left hook, but the slapping kick from Dalby is effective on the front leg. He goes for it two more times before having to reset and absorb a right hand on the chin. Dalby gets off with another kick, and Brown freezes him with a clubbing right hook. The Dane gathers himself and slings back, but the only one that lands is his low kick on the calf. Brown leaves himself wide open and is skipped with a left hand on the temple. Frustrated by the strike, “Rude Boy” puts everything he has into a left and a vicious right hand, not only staggering Brown but completely shattering his nose like Marsha and the football. Eternally tough, Dalby manages to bounce off the fencing and swing back, but he is compromised from a damage and breathing perspective. Brown does not go for broke, instead picking his shots carefully, and he inflicts further harm and swells up Dalby’s left eye. Dalby complains about an eye poke, and Peterson tells Brown to not leave his fingers outstretched. Brown acknowledges this and wings a right hand, only to get belted with a massive hook that knocks him off his feet. Dalby pounces, blood pouring from his destroyed nose, and he works Brown over with short ground strikes. Dalby uses his arm to control Brown, and he drops down one more elbow before the bell. The doctors are quick to assess Dalby’s condition, and they appear to partially reset his beak while tending to it. It probably will not stay that way for long when getting punched again in the next round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Brown
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Brown

Round 2
Dalby is good to go, giving Peterson a thumbs-up even as his left eye is nearly closed. He is fired up, rushing after “Rude Boy” with swarming punches and swinging kicks. Brown flicks out jabs and front kicks, allowing Dalby to buzz past him, and he punctuates a combo with a hard body kick. Dalby strikes the front leg and comes up short with an overhand right, and Brown continues to pepper the face with jabs and a mean-spirited front kick. Brown’s jab keeps Dalby at bay until Dalby has had enough of taking them, walking through a knee to the body and launching a huge right hand. Brown bounces off the fence, in trouble but still in the fight, and he separates and backpedals. Dalby continues crashing towards his opponent, launching big right hands that force Brown to take desperate measures to stay out of danger. Brown grabs hold of Dalby in a brief clinch to turn him around and his back to the wall, and he measures his target with a step-in knee and a short but sweet right hand directly on the jaw that buckles Dalby’s knees. Dalby recognizes this and bounces on them to try to shake it off, and Brown uncorks a nasty right hand on the jaw that hurts “Danish Dynamite” badly. Dalby uses the fence behind him to stay upright, and Brown waits for Dalby to stand straight up and smashes him in the face with a ferocious overhand right and a speedy left to follow. Dalby not only takes them on the chin but fires back with his own short salvo, catching Brown but taking some punishment on the way in. The 40-year-old has to take a second to step back and assess his condition, and he evades a massive uppercut by a matter of millimeters. Brown keeps swinging, ignoring anything coming back his direction and unloading a nuclear missile of a right hand that explodes on the temple and puts Dalby down once and for all. Brown walks away, saluting his fallen adversary, while Peterson rushes in along with a doctor to check on Dalby who is crumpled in a heap. “Knockout of the Year,” you have a new contender as Dalby had never been finished as a professional and he is laying down face-first in a pool of his own blood. What an incredible knockout, concluding a titanic brawl that will remain on highlight reels for years to come. Dalby comes to, and he is able to applaud Brown for his handiwork.

The Official Result
Randy Brown def. Nicolas Dalby R2 1:39 via KO (Punch)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Angelo picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, speed, technical striking, and high fight IQ. He notes that Nicolas Dalby relies on cardio and weird breathing, but Brown should piece him up and avoid danger. The only concern is a rogue judge who might appreciate Dalby's pressure, but Brown is the cleaner fighter.

"Randy Brown is a high IQ fighter with good technical striking. And I think Randy Brown pieces up Nicholas Dolby."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

Big Brady picks Randy Brown, citing his youth, reach advantage, and the big cage favoring his range striking. He expects Brown to pick Dalby apart over three rounds and win a decision. He notes Brown often makes fights closer than expected, but still favors him.

fight goes to decision
"Brown and Brown by decision."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby because of his relentless pressure and drive to win rounds, contrasting with Randy Brown's inconsistency and tendency to lose focus. Dalby's multi-layered pressure, durability, and strength will make the fight miserable for Brown, who often gets cornered and loses. Connor notes that Brown has all the tools but lacks the discipline to use them consistently.

"I'm going to take Dolby. Yeah, I'm going to take Dolby to just for the, that sheer drive to win rounds that Randy Brown simply does not have."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 25, 2025 (1 day before fight)
Randy Brown

The host believes Dalby's reliance on his hardware will deteriorate at age 40, allowing Brown to showcase flaws and batter Dalby from distance for a decision win.

"I believe his reliance on his hardware is going to start to deteriorate allowing Brown to showcase those flaws in DB's game and we'll see a classic Brown performance where he batters Dobby from distance eventually winning this fight on …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Randy Brown

The MMA Guru picks Randy Brown, citing his improved savvy in three-round fights and ability to handle Dalby's pressure. He notes Brown's reach advantage and that Dalby's head kick won't work on a taller opponent. He expects Brown to win by decision or late TKO, as Dalby is older and has more wear and tear.

"I'm going to go Randy Brown. I think he's picked up some like savvy techniques to sort of more educatedly get through a 29 28 that some of these other prospects just haven't seen when they go up against Nicholas …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Zane picks Dalby, agreeing that Dalby's relentless pressure and ability to make fights ugly will overwhelm Brown, who is prone to making poor decisions and getting cornered. Zane points out that Brown's loss to Brian Battle is a blueprint for how Dalby can win. Dalby may not have the tools to dominate, but his drive and consistency will earn him rounds.

"I would take, I will take the drive over the tools, frankly."
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. Aliskerov · Jun 22, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 68 of 134 50% 99 of 173 5 of 11 45% 0 0 6:17
Nicolas Dalby 0 66 of 134 49% 123 of 195 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:57
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 27 of 52 51% 40 of 66 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:36
Nicolas Dalby 0 17 of 41 41% 31 of 58 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:17
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 24 of 46 52% 37 of 62 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:23
Nicolas Dalby 0 31 of 53 58% 48 of 71 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:57
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 0 17 of 36 47% 22 of 45 2 of 6 33% 0 0 3:18
Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 40 45% 44 of 66 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Rinat Fakhretdinov 68 of 134 50% 53 of 113 10 of 13 5 of 8 49 of 109 19 of 25 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 66 of 134 49% 36 of 96 25 of 33 5 of 5 38 of 95 28 of 39 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Rinat Fakhretdinov 27 of 52 51% 21 of 43 4 of 5 2 of 4 21 of 45 6 of 7 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 17 of 41 41% 6 of 27 7 of 10 4 of 4 11 of 32 6 of 9 0 of 0
2 Rinat Fakhretdinov 24 of 46 52% 17 of 36 6 of 8 1 of 2 14 of 34 10 of 12 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 31 of 53 58% 17 of 34 13 of 18 1 of 1 15 of 33 16 of 20 0 of 0
3 Rinat Fakhretdinov 17 of 36 47% 15 of 34 0 of 0 2 of 2 14 of 30 3 of 6 0 of 0
Nicolas Dalby 18 of 40 45% 13 of 35 5 of 5 0 of 0 12 of 30 6 of 10 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolas Dalby vs. Rinat Fakhretdinov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Fakhretdinov (-355), Dalby (+280)

Round 1
The welterweights set up in orthodox stance and go right at one another, with referee Thomas Fan looking on. They exchange kicks at range before Dalby walks through a flurry of punches to shove Fakhretdinov into the fence. Dalby throws knees from the outside while Fakhretdinov answers with knees up the middle. Fakhretdinov gets off the cage and shucks Dalby away from him, and they go back to kickboxing at range. Dalby flicks a kick up top that is blocked, then a question mark kick. Fakhretdinov tags Dalby with a pair of punches, then changes levels for a single-leg. He hoists the leg and Dalby hops on one foot while continuing to punch the head. Fakhretdinov drives him all the way across the cage before losing the single-leg. He pushes Dalby into the cage, then gets reversed. Fakhretdinov shucks Dalby off of him and nails him with a single punch that drops Dalby to his knees. Dalby pops back up, but he’s hurt, and Fakhretdinov pushes him to the fence. They disengage and Fakhretdinov hits him with an elbow. Fakhretdinov lands a switch knee to the gut before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Fakhretdinov

Round 2
Dalby scores first, with a low calf kick. Dalby switches stances, and is backed off by a punching combo from Fakhretdinov. Fakhretdinov gets him to the fence, then changes levels and drives him to the canvas. Dalby gets right back up, his back against the fence. They break off and return to the middle of the cage. Dalby initiates the clinch and shoves Fakhretdinov to the cage. They exchange short strikes on the inside. Dalby releases the clinch and nails Fakhretdinov with a nice right hand. They move back towards the center of the Octagon, and Dalby marches forward, landing a kick and a pair of punches, then another kick. Dalby backs Fakhretdinov into the fence and holds him there with underhooks. Dalby digs his head under the chin of Fakhretdinov and hits him with knees to the thighs. They separate and Fakhretdinov lands a one-two, then changes levels for a smooth double-leg. He drops Dalby to his seat at the base of the fence, lacing the legs. He can’t flatten Dalby out, and they return to their feet seconds before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Dalby flicks out a jab, but Fakhretdinov wastes no time in changing levels and running him to the fence. Fakhretdinov tries to lock his hands and pick Dalby up, but Dalby has an underhook and keeps his hips back. They break away from the fence and Dalby grabs a front headlock, then lands a single punch before Fakhretdinov launches another double-leg. Dalby tries to hit an inside switch, but can’t get it. Fakhretdinov has his arms around the waist of the kneeling Dalby, working to finish the takedown as Dalby tries to stand. Halfway into the round, Dalby gets to his feet in a wide-leg stance against the fence, and he separates. Dalby wades forward with punches, and Fakhretdinov drops for another takedown. He gets Dalby to his seat against the fence, but Dalby gets right back up and gets on Fakhretdinov’s back. Fakhretdinov escapes and runs Dalby back to the cage. Dalby reverses the position and throws knees to the thighs of Fakhretdinov. Under a minute left and Dalby separates, then tags Fakhretdinov with a head kick at short range. They swing away at short range until the final horn.

Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)

The Official Result
Rinat Fakhretdinov def. Nicolas Dalby via Split Decision (29-28, 29-28, 28-29)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Angelo picks Rinat, citing his phenomenal non-stop wrestling and power. He notes Rinat gassed in his last fight after chasing the finish, but still dominated the first two rounds. He thinks Dalby is hitable and will be taken down repeatedly. He acknowledges Dalby's win over Bonfim was more about Bonfim's cardio than Dalby's skill. He plans to spend $9,200 on Rinat in DraftKings.

$9,200 DraftKings salary mentioned
"I do think he gets all the takedowns in the world all the control time I think it absolutely Works"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Big Brady picks Rinat Fakhretdinov confidently, citing his wrestling advantage and power. He notes Dalby's 60% takedown defense and that fighters like Claudia Silva and Tim Means have controlled him. Brady expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision due to Dalby's toughness, but a finish wouldn't surprise him. He also mentions a PrizePicks play on Fakhretdinov's fantasy score under 94.5.

PrizePicks: less on fantasy score (under 94.5) because control time and non-significant strikes don't count
"give me fov to win this fight I'll say by decision because Dolby is very tough but a finish would not Shock Me"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Cody picks Fakhretdinov but is hesitant due to the price and Dalby's comeback ability. He notes Fakhretdinov's wrestling and power, but also his cardio issues and Dalby's experience and durability. He expects Fakhretdinov to win early but warns of a potential fade.

"I'll take the cowards way and take faero but bad price tag"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Daniel Vreeland picks Rinat Fakhretdinov to win a decision, expecting him to take the first two rounds with wrestling pressure. He notes Dalby's third-round resurgence but believes Fakhretdinov's takedowns and grinding style will secure a win. He acknowledges Dalby's cardio and finishing ability but sees Fakhretdinov controlling the fight early.

"I think that renat probably takes the first two rounds loses the third and wins a unanimous decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Hesitant picked Jun 20, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

Jacob picks Rinat but does not trust him due to his mentality—he was happy with a draw after nearly getting finished. Jacob worries Rinat will try to knock Dalby out instead of wrestling, which could lead to trouble. He compares Rinat's attitude to Loopy Godinez, saying it's not a killer mentality. However, he acknowledges Rinat should win if he sticks to wrestling.

"rat should win the fight if he does win the fight it's probably going to look like spectacular fashion but if he comes in swinging wild trying to just take this guy head off he could [ __ ] lose"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

JP is confident in Fakhretdinov, citing his 22-2 record with 11 KOs and 7 subs, and notes Dalby's tendency to go to decision (12-4 in decisions). He expects Fakhretdinov to win by decision. Brevan agrees, highlighting Fakhretdinov's strong wrestling base and ability to control Dalby on the ground. He suggests a prop bet on Fakhretdinov by decision if the odds are plus money. Both see Fakhretdinov as the clear winner.

Fakhretdinov by decision (if plus money)
"I think re not's too good man from what we've seen he's hard to stop 22-2 I mean he's 11-0 in Ko 7-0 in Subs the only way he loses if it's going to decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jun 19, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not make a winner pick but suggests Dalby as a live bet. He notes Fakhretdinov will likely get takedowns but may gas, and Dalby's ability to get up and outwork him. He prefers to watch and potentially bet Dalby live.

"I think Dolby makes for a great live bet"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Rinat Fakhretdinov

The MMA Guru picks Rinat Fakhretdinov over Nicolas Dalby, after initially considering Dalby. He rewatched Dalby's fight with Gabriel Bonfim and was less impressed, noting that Dalby was held down for significant periods. He believes Fakhretdinov's patient top game will be effective, as he doesn't chase submissions and is content to hold opponents down. He contrasts this with Bonfim's scrambling, which allowed Dalby to escape. He also notes Fakhretdinov's win over Brian Battle as impressive.

"I'm gonna go renat fenov I was going to lean towards maybe a Nicholas dby pick honestly but um no I'm going to go rat fenov D I wanted to pick dby but i rewatched his Gabriel Bon firm fight …"
TKO (knees and punches) R2 4:33 · UFC Fight Night: Almeida vs. Lewis · Nov 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 39 of 91 42% 47 of 103 3 of 5 60% 1 0 4:19
Gabriel Bonfim 1 53 of 113 46% 64 of 128 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:27
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 30 of 60 50% 35 of 68 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:32
Gabriel Bonfim 0 16 of 47 34% 22 of 55 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:21
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 9 of 31 29% 12 of 35 2 of 4 50% 1 0 1:47
Gabriel Bonfim 1 37 of 66 56% 42 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:06
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 39 of 91 42% 27 of 77 3 of 4 9 of 10 32 of 71 3 of 9 4 of 11
Gabriel Bonfim 53 of 113 46% 41 of 96 7 of 11 5 of 6 25 of 76 25 of 33 3 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 30 of 60 50% 18 of 47 3 of 3 9 of 10 26 of 48 0 of 1 4 of 11
Gabriel Bonfim 16 of 47 34% 11 of 41 1 of 1 4 of 5 15 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 9 of 31 29% 9 of 30 0 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 23 3 of 8 0 of 0
Gabriel Bonfim 37 of 66 56% 30 of 55 6 of 10 1 of 1 10 of 31 24 of 31 3 of 4
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gabriel Bonfim vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Bonfim (-625), Dalby (+455)

Round 1
On Friday morning, two Bonfim brothers were expected to be competing on this lineup. After elder brother Ismael missed weight by a boat anchor, Gabriel Bonfim (15-0, 2-0 UFC) will be the one repping the family tonight. Putting the family reputation as well as his spotless record and 100% finish rate on the line, Bonfim draws an extremely tough test in Dalby (22-4-1, 2 NC; 6-3-1, 1 NC UFC). While arguably the greatest fighter from Denmark to compete in MMA—Martin Kampmann may disagree—Dalby is also known from having one of the wildest fights in MMA history against Ross Houston in Cage Warriors, when so much blood was spilled on the vinyl cage floor, referee Marc Goddard had to call the title fight off in the third round. This “Just Bleed” mentality comes with him in this co-main event, and Bonfim will have his hands full here. Referee Jason Herzog is cool and collected, but inside he’s amped up and ready, and the fighters are as well. Bonfim would rather get right to business, and wastes no time with a glove touch. Instead, the Brazilian walks straight forward and busts Dalby in the chops with two big punches. The two proceed to go wild with big strikes, and Bonfim connects a number of powerful low kicks to give Dalby pause. Dalby presses forward, gathering a full head of steam, and he plows Bonfim to the fence and hunts for a trip. Bonfim defends himself against the fencing, and he splits off and resets. Dalby doubles up on a jab and follows with an overhand right, and Bonfim just misses with a head kick. The Brazilian hammers the lead wheel with a kick, and he aims a few more kicks to the same target until Dalby switches stances briefly. Dalby powers forward, keeping his high-pressure game going, and he gets knocked back with a one-two and a kick. Bonfim digs a kick to the body and reaches with a left hand, and he intercepts a countering Dalby with a chopping kick. Dalby pushes forward and just misses with a head kick, and Bonfim strings three jabs together in rapid succession. Dalby attacks the lead leg, and Bonfim snatches him up and body locks him to the ground. Landing in half guard, Bonfim has over two minutes to work should he keep it horizontal. Bonfim skips over to the side, and Dalby raises one leg up high in hopes of bucking Bonfim off of him. Bonfim slowly works with elbows, drawing a tiny bit of blood with his strikes as he isolates Dalby’s right arm. Bonfim lets it go so he can move to full mount, and he sets up an arm-triangle choke by slithering one arm beneath the neck. Dalby defends against it, but Bonfim remains in dominant position despite Dalby’s movement. Bonfim elects to move to the side so he can batter Dalby with elbows, and Dalby defends most but not all of them. Bonfim opens up an additional cut on his opponent, and the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
J.L. Kirven scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Bonfim

Round 2
Dalby opens up the second round just as aggressive as before, with his pace trying to take some of the wind out of Bonfim’s sails. Bonfim counters that with a few powerful punches, and he scoops the Danish fighter up off the ground and slams him to the mat. Dalby sits up, and Bonfim considers a guillotine choke but lets it go. When Dalby partially stands, Bonfim sucks his hips out and deposits him to the ground with a single. Dalby defends with a guillotine choke, and Bonfim welcomes this so that he can set up a Von Preux shoulder choke. Dalby does not fall for the trap, and he releases the grip in time so that he does not get choked out. Bonfim does manage to claim side control in this position, until Dalby rolls all the way over and goes after a double. Bonfim latches his arms around the neck for a brabo choke setup, and he hops over to the back. Dalby deftly scrambles to get back to his feet, and he stands and pushes Bonfim to the wire. Bonfim welcomes him with an elbow, and Dalby throws back and continues plodding forward. Dalby maintains his suffocating pressure, and Bonfim shoots for a single that comes up short. Dalby comes up high with a pair of elbows, and the two start slugging it out. Dalby drives his knee on the chin a few times, and he ignores the strikes that belt him in the face so he can fire back fearlessly. Bonfim leans his back to the wall, and Dalby is on him like a cheap suit. Bonfim’s gas tank begins to fade as his body language starts to show he is struggling, while Dalby is ready and rearing to go for several more minutes. Bonfim drops to his knees for a single, and Bonfim shells up against the fencing as Dalby lays into him with knees and elbows. Bonfim lets loose with uppercuts, only for Dalby to completely no-sell them and further use his cardio and durability as a weapon.
A ferocious knee in a series from the Danish fighter smashes right into the jaw, and Bonfim collapses to the canvas. Dalby finishes the job with a number of punishing left hands, forcing Herzog to step in and wave the fight off.
“Danish Dynamite” has exploded, blowing up the massive favorite while detonating the unbeaten record of the highly touted Brazilian finisher.

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Gabriel Bonfim R2 4:33 via TKO (Knees and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 29, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Angelo picks Gabriel Bonfim, expecting him to grapple early and get the win. He notes Dalby is tough and could take it to a decision, which would be new for Bonfim. He likes the Bonfim brother parlay. He thinks the UFC knows what they're doing with this matchup.

Bonfim brother parlay
"I see Gabriel coming forward grappling early and getting the win Doby is tough this could go to a decision which we have not seen Gabriel do yet"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Big Brady picks Gabriel Bonfim to win by first-round submission. He praises Bonfim's striking and opportunistic submission game, noting he subs opponents when they shoot for takedowns. He mentions Dalby has never been finished officially but was finished by Jesse Ronson (who popped for PEDs). He expects a club-and-sub sequence, with Bonfim knocking down Dalby and snatching a submission.

"give me Gabriel bonim clear setup fight... I think it's done in the first round so Gabriel bonim first round sub"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Daniel Levi picks Gabriel Bonfim, impressed by his undefeated record, 15 finishes, and versatile submission game including guillotines, rear-naked chokes, and triangles. He notes Bonfim's athleticism, explosiveness, and willingness to strike, but also acknowledges concerns about his striking defense and unproven cardio. Levi sees Dalby as a tough veteran who can turn fights into dogfights and drag Bonfim into deep water, but believes Bonfim's youth and tenacity will prevail. He is not laying the -600 chalk and plans to stay away from betting this fight, possibly poking at props.

Bonfim wins inside distance, Bonfim by submission, Bonfim by TKO, fight doesn't go to decision
"I am going Bonfim here... it's just you know we're looking at I don't know if I mentioned the odds it's minus 600 Bonfim... I'm all good on that minus 600 but my pick is going to be Gabriel Bonfim …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Nov 4, 2023 (fight day)
Gabriel Bonfim

James predicts Bonfim will run through Dalby, likely in round one. He notes that Dalby has been knocked out and submitted early by Jesse Ronson (overturned to NC) and sees a similar outcome here. He acknowledges that if Bonfim doesn't finish early, Dalby has a chance to come back in later rounds, but he believes Bonfim is a dangerous striker and opportunistic submission artist. He picks Bonfim to win, probably by submission in round one.

James suggests Bonfim wins in round one, possibly by knockout or submission.
"I think bonin's gonna run through him... I'm picking bonim to win probably in round one."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

Bonfim is one of the best prospects, with great striking that sets up his submission game. He hurts opponents and then capitalizes on desperation takedowns to lock in chokes. Dalby is older and has faced lower-level competition recently. Bonfim will hurt Dalby on the feet, forcing a bad takedown attempt, and finish via submission inside the distance.

Bonfim inside the distance
"Give me Bonfim, Bonfim inside the distance and I think it's going to look pretty bad."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Gabriel Bonfim

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Bonfim over Nicolas Dalby. He emphasizes Bonfim's athleticism, size, and finishing ability, predicting a first-round submission. The Guru notes Dalby needs to be perfect for three rounds to win, while Bonfim can end it quickly. He references Bonfim's dominant win over Trevin Giles and his signature guillotine choke. He predicts a first-round guillotine.

first round submission
"I'm going to go with Gabriel Bumm getting himself a first round Guillotine choke over Nicholas dby"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vettori vs. Cannonier · Jun 17, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 86 of 140 61% 104 of 158 2 of 5 40% 0 0 6:36
Muslim Salikhov 0 57 of 88 64% 70 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 21 of 44 47% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Muslim Salikhov 0 27 of 45 60% 27 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 17 of 27 62% 24 of 34 1 of 3 33% 0 0 3:21
Muslim Salikhov 0 10 of 14 71% 18 of 22 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 48 of 69 69% 58 of 79 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:08
Muslim Salikhov 0 20 of 29 68% 25 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 86 of 140 61% 41 of 84 36 of 43 9 of 13 43 of 91 36 of 41 7 of 8
Muslim Salikhov 57 of 88 64% 34 of 58 21 of 28 2 of 2 47 of 78 10 of 10 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 21 of 44 47% 7 of 25 6 of 8 8 of 11 17 of 40 4 of 4 0 of 0
Muslim Salikhov 27 of 45 60% 14 of 26 11 of 17 2 of 2 27 of 45 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 17 of 27 62% 9 of 17 7 of 9 1 of 1 6 of 13 8 of 10 3 of 4
Muslim Salikhov 10 of 14 71% 5 of 9 5 of 5 0 of 0 8 of 12 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Nicolas Dalby 48 of 69 69% 25 of 42 23 of 26 0 of 1 20 of 38 24 of 27 4 of 4
Muslim Salikhov 20 of 29 68% 15 of 23 5 of 6 0 of 0 12 of 21 8 of 8 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolas Dalby vs. Muslim Salikhov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Salikhov (-190), Dalby (+160)

Round 1
A potential all-action welterweight tilt will kick off the main card, as blood-and-guts Dalby (21-4-1, 2 NC; 5-3-1, 1 NC UFC) stands across the cage from “King of Kung Fu” Salikhov (19-3, 6-2 UFC). This will be the eldest bout on the billing, as Dalby is over 38 while Salikhov just turned 39, so the clock is absolutely ticking for these two 170-pound competitors in hopes of making a run. They do not plan on touching gloves, and referee Mark Smith sits back to observe the proceedings. Dalby slings a high kick early, and Salikhov replies with a solid calf kick as if he had watched the last bout and wanted to replicate that success. Dalby goes for another head kick that is blocked, and he puts a jab in the Russian’s face. Salikhov rifles out a left hand, and he absorbs a kick on the inside of his knee. Salikhov aims a front kick to the chest, and Dalby is quick to kick low again. Salikhov scores a pair of dangerous leg kicks, and they trade punches until Dalby decides to give Salikhov a taste of his own medicine with a kick. Salikhov reaches out with a left hook, and he pushes out with a front kick. The two trade leg kicks, and Dalby ducks a Superman punch right in time. Salikhov spins suddenly with a back fist, and Dalby raises his guard and takes a clean spinning back kick right after to the chest. Dalby picks at the lead leg with a kick, and they both go after one another with heavy right hooks. Dalby aims a shin to the midsection, and he walks into a solid right hand. When Dalby tries to kick low, Salikhov stands him up with an overhand right. Both men crash together with thudding fists, and Salikhov reaches his man in a subsequent strike. “King of Kung Fu” beats Dalby to the punch, and he clips him with a left hand to stagger Dalby. Dalby gathers his thoughts and retaliates with a right hand and a huge head kick. Salikhov is damaged from the blow, and he pursues a takedown to drag Dalby to the ground to recover. The two both stand up in the clinch, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Salikhov

Round 2
The welterweights come together in the center of the cage, and Dalby initiates offense with a head kick that is blocked. Salikhov replies with a front kick, leading Dalby into a charge that pushes him against the cage to the wall. Salikhov turns him around, and Dalby reaches him with high knees even with his back against the fence. Salikhov breaks off, and he defends a body kick and spins with a back kick to the midsection. The two measure one another with one-twos, and Dalby ducks straight into a knee when pursuing a takedown. Salikhov keeps his back to the wire as he stays upright, and Dalby lifts up a high knee. This is the worst thing Dalby can do, as Salikhov grabs hold of it, turns Dalby around and deposits him to the canvas. Dalby calmly works his way back up with the fence behind him, and he spams short knees to the side. Dalby wrenches the Dagestan native to the mat, and he moves straight into mount. Salikhov turns to the side and ends up giving up his back, and Dalby gets a hook in and drapes his arm around the chest. Salikhov turns enough to free himself from a hook, and Dalby traps Salikhov’s left leg while turning the torso. Dalby nearly has a twister set up, and he threatens with a choke that transitions from a rear-naked choke to an arm-triangle choke. This is a means to an end, as Dalby steps over into half guard and looks for ground-and-pound. Salikhov explodes back to his feet with a minute to go, and Dalby presses on the Russian when standing up and knees him a few times. Dalby fishes for a trip with his foot, and Salikhov breaks away with an elbow. Dalby chases after him with a head kick, and Salikhov replies with one and falls to his knees. The round ends as Dalby jumps on top.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Dalby picks up where he left off, with a head kick attempt. Salikhov backs away and holds his arms high to block it and one that follows, but he cannot stop a few punches from Dalby. The Danish fighter attempts a third head kick, and he races forward to either change levels or settle for a clinch. Salikhov looks to muscle out, but Dalby turns him back to the wall, as Salikhov appears frustrated. Dalby grinds and works the body with several active knees, until Salikhov breaks away and gets to striking range. Dalby rushes after him and spears the Russian with a right hand and looks for a head kick. Salikhov is not fazed by the blows, and he jams his foot into Dalby’s midsection. Dalby punches his way into a clinch, but he cannot hold Salikhov there for long. Salikhov escapes, and he rushes backwards. Dalby practically sprints at him, tossing up a head kick and a right hand before engaging in the tie-up once more. When Salikhov drags them away from the cage, Dalby elbows him several times before kneeing him and pushing him to the fencing. Dalby slips a punch over the top and does not lose his clinch grip, and they both give one another mean elbows on the chin. Dalby slings a high kick, and he re-engages Salikhov before dragging him to his knee. Dalby jumps into mount with a little under 15 seconds left, and he beats down on Salikhov with hammerfists and an elbow until the final horn blares.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Muslim Salikhov via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jun 11, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Angelo has a slight lean to Muslim Salikhov because he has better wrestling, but he calls this a 50/50 fight. Both are older strikers with traditional martial arts backgrounds. Dalby's 65% takedown defense could be a factor. Angelo is waiting for props to drop and is not betting the moneyline.

"the only reason the slight lean from me is going to be Muslim salkov is because he has the better wrestling but dalby's 65 takedown defense could end up playing parlay Buster for this card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 10, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision, but he is low on both fighters. He criticizes Salikhov for low volume, poor cardio, and being 39 years old. Dalby is slightly younger and showed high volume in his last fight against Warlley Alves, landing 119 strikes. Brady thinks Dalby can push Salikhov against the cage, tire him out, and be more active. He notes Dalby has never been knocked out and is very tough. However, he admits he is very low on both guys and this is not an exciting fight.

"I'm gonna take Dolby here I think he's gonna be more active on the feet he's a touch younger he's gonna have the better cardio."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Cody has a tough time reading this fight. He notes Salikhov is a low-volume counter puncher with heavy power, and that opponents often freeze up against him. He thinks Dalby's wrestling is not good enough to take Salikhov down, and if Dalby tries to out-volume him, he risks walking into a big shot. Cody leans Salikhov to land the better strikes and possibly get a knockout, but he doesn't want much exposure. He likes Salikhov by knockout at +240.

Salikhov by knockout at +240 (small bet)
"I'm gonna go with Muslim I like salukov and I actually like style club by knockout"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby, citing his grinding approach as effective against a fighter like Salikhov who needs space. He notes that Salikhov has not been tested by wrestling since Alex Garcia, and Dalby's physicality should be a problem. Connor sees Dalby muscling his way to a win.

"I'll take Dolby here."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Daniel Levi picks Muslim Salikhov, citing a significant firepower advantage and Salikhov's ability to land damaging shots. He notes Dalby's history of being dropped and his lower volume, while Salikhov can knock him out. He gives the cardio edge to Dalby but thinks Salikhov's power will be decisive. He has a good betting history with Salikhov and plans to bet him as long as the line stays under -200.

bet if line under -200, potential knockout
"I'm going to go back to the well and I'm looking to fade uh dalby again just as long as it doesn't go to minus 200"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Dalby has a speed and athleticism advantage, a good output game, and decent takedowns to mix in. Salikhov is one-dimensional with a kung fu striking style and has shown durability issues. Dalby's awkward striking and volume should outwork Salikhov over three rounds. However, Dalby's durability is a slight concern. Dalby wins by decision.

"I think Dobby wins this fight by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 14, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Dalby's pitter-patter striking won't work against Salikhov, who hits hard. He points out that Dalby has been knocked down by lesser fighters and that Salikhov's power is a real threat. Paul sees Salikhov by knockout at +240 as a potential small bet, though he wishes the price were higher.

Salikhov by knockout at +240 (small bet)
"I see a plus 240 out there which I was hoping would be a little bit higher to be perfectly honest maybe I'll wait"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 13, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muslim Salikhov

The MMA Guru picks Muslim Salikhov over Nicolas Dalby, stating Salikhov is simply better. He notes Dalby lacks finishing potential, submission ability, and great grappling, while Salikhov has momentum and can finish or win a decision. He mentions Dalby was KO'd by Jesse Ronson, and expects Salikhov to catch Dalby with a right hand.

"I'm gonna definitely be going with Muslim salakov over Nicholas dalbyn... Muslim salakov is just better than him flat out"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jun 15, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Zane picks Dalby because he believes Dalby's grinding pressure will overwhelm Salikhov. He notes that Salikhov is a sniper who needs time and space, and that Dalby's high output and physicality will not allow that. Zane acknowledges Salikhov could crack Dalby early, but favors Dalby's consistency.

"I'm definitely taking Dolby though."
WIN vs Warlley Alves
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 283: Teixeira vs. Hill · Jan 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 66 of 144 45% 75 of 153 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:09
Warlley Alves 0 119 of 248 47% 167 of 298 0 of 1 0% 0 0 4:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 35 51% 25 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:34
Warlley Alves 0 35 of 74 47% 51 of 91 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:39
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 18 of 37 48% 20 of 39 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:19
Warlley Alves 0 31 of 73 42% 52 of 95 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:53
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 30 of 72 41% 30 of 72 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:16
Warlley Alves 0 53 of 101 52% 64 of 112 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:30
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 66 of 144 45% 45 of 117 7 of 12 14 of 15 62 of 138 4 of 6 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 119 of 248 47% 75 of 195 35 of 41 9 of 12 86 of 212 32 of 35 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 35 51% 7 of 22 4 of 5 7 of 8 16 of 32 2 of 3 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 35 of 74 47% 19 of 51 13 of 17 3 of 6 20 of 58 15 of 16 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 18 of 37 48% 11 of 29 1 of 2 6 of 6 17 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 31 of 73 42% 22 of 62 5 of 7 4 of 4 25 of 67 5 of 5 1 of 1
3 Nicolas Dalby 30 of 72 41% 27 of 66 2 of 5 1 of 1 29 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Warlley Alves 53 of 101 52% 34 of 82 17 of 17 2 of 2 41 of 87 12 of 14 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Warlley Alves vs. Nicolas Dalby
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Alves (-125), Dalby (+105)

Round 1
Welterweights take center stage as the proceedings keep moving, with TUF Brazil 3 middleweight winner Alves (14-5, 8-5 UFC) repping his home country against Denmark’s Dalby (20-4-1, 2 NC; 4-3-1, 1 NC UFC). The third man inside the Octagon for this interesting stylistic clash will be referee Herb Dean, who clocks them in as Alves tries to offer a glove touch but is not accepted. Alves absorbs a low kick and immediately kicks into high gear, swarming the Dane with punches and a couple low kicks back. Dalby strikes back, and Alves loses his balance from the middle of the cage to the wall, but he is not hurt. When Dalby reaches him, Alves grabs him and ties him up, and he uses tight chest pressure to tire his man out. Dalby spins him around and grinds him back, with short knees to the thigh and body as the crowd grows restless less than two minutes in. Alves boxes the ears and jumps up to rip a knee to the body, and this allows him to get enough space to separate. The Brazilian strikes with a kick to the body, and he kicks low twice in the midst of a Dalby combination. Dalby returns fire with a low kick, and he wipes his eye as he appears to have been swiped with a finger. Alves offers an apologetic hand instead of lashing out, and Dalby motions that he is fine and they get back to it. They trade heavy kicks, and Alves’ landing to the body connect with audible thuds. A clack of heads opens a cut on the corner of Dalby’s right eye, but he pays it no mind as he pushes off and walks Alves down. They both throw hands at the same time, leading to a clinch. Dalby sprints in the clinch to push Alves all the way across the cage into the wall, and the crowd lets him have it. Dalby squeezes his foe on the cage wall, even landing a short foot stomp, as Alves smacks him upside the head with short punches. Dalby breaks off with an elbow that surprises Alves, and Alves leaps forward only to get countered with a left hook. Dalby scores a one-two and a few punches, and the horn echoes through the building.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 2
Alves lands first with a front kick, and he kicks Dalby’s lead leg to follow it. Dalby replies with his own low kick, and they close the distance towards one another and bump heads again. Alves rushes in to throw bombs, and he uses his forward momentum to change levels and drop down for a single-leg takedown. When they awkwardly hit the mat in the scramble, Dalby falls to his back in search of a triangle choke. The Brazilian shucks it off and claims top position, and he holds on from on top without landing much of note. As they stay pinned to the floor, Dalby explodes out of nowhere to return to his feet, and a potential Alves guillotine choke setup is not there to be had. Dalby works Alves over with an elbow, body shots, knees and a few punches, before tying him up against and pushing him to the wire. As Dalby grinds, the crowd whistles and boos the control from the Danish fighter. Alves breaks away, and he lumbers forward to wrap a right hand around the guard. Dalby springs away and kicks low, he connects with a solid elbow on the jaw. They smash one another in the face with right hands, and neither man appears to be the worse for wear after the fierce exchange. Dalby kicks high a few times, and Alves loads up on a right hand and spins with a back fist that careens off the top of the head. Alves blocks a right hand but cannot defend against a side kick to the breadbasket, although he slips an overhand right to drill Dalby with a right hand. Dalby is loose and light on his feet, stringing together combinations of unusual strikes one after the other, like a body shot to a head kick. Dalby slides out of the way from oncoming fire, and Alves pushes his fingers out and rakes the right eye of Alves. Dean recognizes this immediately and pauses the fight, and Dalby takes 30 seconds to recover. With seconds to spare, Alves tries one head kick, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Dalby
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby

Round 3
Between rounds, Alves blows his nose, and his eye swells up to a small degree because of it. The welterweights meet in the middle and throw hands to start off Round 3, and Alves begins with a barrage of power punches. Dalby responds but gets knocked back, and Alves’ power is the different maker. Alves splits the guard with an uppercut, and he knocks Dalby into the wall and his forward pace leads them to clinch up. Dalby manages to escape and strings a few punches to the body and head together. Alves blocks a head kick in time, and he slips a strike to score a right hand. Alves surges forward to connect with a few more punches, and a takedown try from the Brazilian is stifled. As they stay stuck against one another in the clinch, Dean asks them to work a few times. Dalby hands on for as long as he can, with short knees to the body, until he chooses to break away. Alves walks him down and blasts him in the face with a right hand, and Dalby’s knees wobble but do not buckle. Alves lets loose with a low kick, and a huge right hook stuns Dalby for a moment. Alves checks a low kick so that he can unload with a right hand, and he jumps with a spinning back fist that grazes on the top of the forehead. Dalby slows Alves momentarily with a short salvo, but Alves fires back hard to get Dalby’s attention. Dalby meanders back to the cage, and Alves leaps at him with a flying knee that makes him collide with the wall instead of his opponent. Dalby stays on his bike, circling around to strike and sneak in a takedown. Alves springs right back up, and they tie up. With seconds to go, Alves pushes off, and they both score punches until the fight concludes. It seems like this will be a close one.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Dalby)
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Alves (29-28 Alves)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Dalby (30-27 Dalby)

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Warlley Alves via Split Decision (29-28, 28-29, 29-28)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jan 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Big Brady picks Alves but with low trust due to Alves' inconsistency. He notes Alves has two versions: one that puts on masterclass performances and one that fades after the first round. He thinks Alves has the grappling upside and danger to finish, while Dalby is tough with good cardio but not dangerous. He expects the fight to leave round one and Alves to win a decision, but he's staying away from betting.

"I'm gonna pick uh Worley Alves I think he's uh the more likely fighter to finish this fight I think is the more likely fighter to Grapple and if he does grapple pretty easy path to Victory"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Cody picks Warlley Alves but with low confidence, noting his tendency to gas and be a front-runner. He says Alves has power and a nasty guillotine, but his cardio is suspect. He thinks Alves will win if he comes out strong, but could lose if he gasses. He mentions Alves' history of losing as a favorite. He says the under 2.5 rounds is the play.

bet under 2.5 rounds at -120; mentions Alves' guillotine choke
"I took the under two and a half rounds uh minus 120. um I'm surprised that Line's still actually there"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Connor picks Dalby, noting he is a consistent, trusty fighter who can grind out a win. He expects Alves to win round 1 but Dalby to take over in round 3. He admits he wants Dalby to win and acknowledges Alves could do early damage.

"I'm going to go with Dolby just for being a workhorse."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Paul picks Warlley Alves but with hesitation, noting his cardio issues and tendency to lose as a favorite. He says Alves has the skills to win but is unreliable. He thinks Alves will win if he shows up, but wouldn't bet much on him. He mentions Alves' guillotine and power. He says the under is a good play.

mentions under 2.5 rounds; says Alves is a front-runner
"Alvis is the rifle pick 16 months off gaster notorious apple pie [ __ ] don't put a bunch of money on them"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

The Guru is hesitant but picks Dalby, noting it's a close fight with even odds. He believes if there's no first-round KO from Alves, Dalby will win as the fight goes on. Alves was KO'd by Jeremiah Wells and has been inactive in 2022. The Guru compares Dalby's style to James Krause, with pitter-patter shots and movement, and thinks Dalby can survive the early danger and make Alves gas out.

"I'm gonna go dalby but it's worrying this is one of them fights this is truly like a a really close fight"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Hesitant picked Jan 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Warlley Alves

Zane picks Alves hesitantly, expecting him to do too much damage early. He notes Alves is explosive and powerful, but fades and has mental blocks. Dalby is a workhorse but may be losing physical steps at 38. Zane expects Alves to win round 1 and possibly finish.

"I'm going to pick Warlley Alves. I think he's gonna do too much damage early until we won't be able to come back hard enough to win."
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nicolas Dalby 0 11 of 21 52% 46 of 59 4 of 12 33% 0 0 7:17
Cláudio Silva 0 45 of 94 47% 61 of 114 1 of 1 100% 1 1 4:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 0 of 2 0% 25 of 30 1 of 4 25% 0 0 4:11
Cláudio Silva 0 0 of 1 0% 2 of 4 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Nicolas Dalby 0 6 of 10 60% 10 of 14 2 of 6 33% 0 0 1:50
Cláudio Silva 0 31 of 57 54% 38 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:58
3 Nicolas Dalby 0 5 of 9 55% 11 of 15 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:16
Cláudio Silva 0 14 of 36 38% 21 of 44 1 of 1 100% 1 0 2:19
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nicolas Dalby 11 of 21 52% 4 of 13 4 of 5 3 of 3 11 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cláudio Silva 45 of 94 47% 32 of 78 9 of 12 4 of 4 21 of 59 16 of 21 8 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nicolas Dalby 0 of 2 0% 0 of 1 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cláudio Silva 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Nicolas Dalby 6 of 10 60% 3 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0
Cláudio Silva 31 of 57 54% 21 of 45 7 of 9 3 of 3 14 of 34 15 of 20 2 of 3
3 Nicolas Dalby 5 of 9 55% 1 of 5 2 of 2 2 of 2 5 of 9 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cláudio Silva 14 of 36 38% 11 of 32 2 of 3 1 of 1 7 of 24 1 of 1 6 of 11
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Nicolas Dalby vs. Claudio Silva
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Dalby (-250), Silva (+210)

Round 1
The venue isn’t completely full for the first prelim of the card in London, but those who are present seem to be fully engaged. Lukasz Bosacki will be the third man in the cage for this welterweight bout. Silva takes the center of the cage and shoots for a takedown, driving Dalby into the fence. Silva clings to a single leg, but Dalby hops around and maintains his balance while fighting his opponent’s hands. “Hannibal” finally yanks his foe down and passes quickly to full mount. Silva stays heavy on top as Dalby attempts to buck him off. Thus far, those efforts are unsuccessful. Dalby stays active and recaptures half guard, but Silva is still in control. Dalby posts in hopes of standing, but Silva grabs the arm and plants the Dane on his back with time winding down. Silva ends the round on top with mild ground-and-pound, much to the displeasure of the crowd. 10-9 Silva.

Round 2
Silva steps in with a front kick and Dalby responds with a leg kick that makes the Brazilian wobble. Silva has seen enough as he shoots and takes Dalby down near the fence. Dalby gives up his back as he stands, and “Hannibal” secures a body triangle and drags him right back down. Silva looks for openings to slide his arm underneath Dalby’s chin. Dalby resists and is able to turn out of the predicament, setting up in Silva’s full guard. Dalby creates some space and drops a heavy elbow that draws a roar from the London throng. Silva works his way up and eats a right hand. Dalby sprawls on a shot and lands a knee to the head. Silva looks tired as he circles away, but the Brazilian resets and pushes Dalby into the fence. Dalby defends and lands another solid right hand. Dalby is gaining momentum, and he tees off with a head kick and more punches. Dalby shoves Silva into the fence and lands a hard series of knees to the midsection. The tide has turned completely at this point, and Dalby keeps the knees going. Silva is exhausted, holding his hands low. Silva ties up Dalby in the waning seconds and absorbs a knee and a left hook before the horn. 10-9 Dalby.

Round 3
Dalby just misses on a head kick, but a low kick finds the mark. Silva shoots and Dalby defends, shoving “Hannibal” down to the mat with ease. Dalby follows his man down to the mat and sets up in his foe’s full guard. Dalby works to create space for elbows while Silva controls his wrists. Another short elbow lands on the chest of Silva. Dalby drops an elbow and grinds his forearm into Silva’s neck. Silva appears to just be holding on for dear life. One of those elbows appears to have opened a cut on Silva, and blood is dripping on the Octagon floor. Dalby frees himself from guard and stands up. Silva is slow to rise and Dalby lands a glancing head kick. Silva steps in with an elbow, but his offense is mostly slow and fatigued. A left hand lands clean for Dalby. Silva executes a beautiful level change behind a winging hook and gets Dalby down. Dalby attempts an omoplata sweep, and at the very least, it stops Silva from advancing position. After a brief stalemate, a scramble ensues and Silva lands mild ground-and-pound. Dalby is able to scramble back up just before the horn. 10-9 Dalby (29-28 Dalby).

The Official Result
Nicolas Dalby def. Claudio Silva via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Angelo picks Dalby despite acknowledging it's a tough fight with both guys having long layoffs. He notes Dalby is the better striker with real power but is hittable, while Silva has relentless grappling pressure but only 25% takedown accuracy and cardio issues. He believes Dalby's toughness will keep him alive and Silva will gas, allowing Dalby to win.

"i got to go dolby here because even though he is hittable he's very tough and unlike other opponents who out grappled him like tim means peter sabatta claudio will gasp and keep dolby live this entire fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Big Brady picks Nicolas Dalby to win by decision. He notes that Cláudio Silva is 39, has a poor gas tank, and is essentially 'round one submission or bust.' Dalby is the much better striker and should survive the first round, then pick Silva apart. He also mentions Silva has never been finished and Dalby has never been submitted, so a decision is likely.

Dalby by decision
"give me nicholas dalby to win um nicolas dalby to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Cody picks Nicolas Dalby, calling Silva a bum. He notes Silva has poor cardio, low volume, and is 39 years old. Cody thinks Dalby's cardio and pressure will be too much. He suggests live betting Dalby if he loses the first round but doesn't get submitted. Cody is confident Dalby wins.

live betting: if Dalby loses first round but doesn't get submitted, hammer Dalby moneyline
"i gotta say this is ain't gonna go well for him"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Daniel Levi picks Nicolas Dalby, arguing that Cláudio Silva is past his prime at 41-42 years old. He acknowledges Silva's dangerous grappling and striking power in his prime, but believes Dalby's forward pressure and high kicks will be too much. Levi notes that Dalby has a history of surviving early trouble and coming back, and has been competitive with tough opponents.

"i think he gets this one a couple of years ago i would have taken the shot on claudio silva i just think that he's past that point in his career now"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Dalby should win if he manages his gas tank and keeps the fight standing, but I don't trust him at -250. Silva is a dangerous submission threat and Dalby has a history of sketchy wins. I'm picking Dalby to win but he'll make you sweat for your money.

Claudio Silva round 1 submission +1000 mentioned as a possible sprinkle
"I do not trust Nicholas dalby at minus 250 he should win this fight... but I'm gonna pick him to win this fight"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cláudio Silva

Paul picks Cláudio Silva by submission at +500, calling it a dogger pass. He doesn't love Silva's stand-up but thinks if Silva can get the fight to the ground, he has a chance. Paul notes Dalby has been submitted before. He is hesitant and will watch weigh-ins.

Silva by submission +500
"dogger pass for me what about you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

The MMA Guru picks Nicolas Dalby to win by unanimous decision. He criticizes Cláudio Silva's recent performances, noting Silva looks like a man without testosterone and has shown no skill since 2019. Dalby is a physical athlete who rarely gets finished and can push the pace. The Guru expects Dalby to dominate positional control and win on the feet.

unanimous decision
"i'm going to go if nicolas dalby winning this one unanimous decision dominating positional control over claudio silva"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Angelo picks Tim Means, citing his high-volume striking, underrated wrestling, and ability to avoid damage. He notes Means picks his shots and takes opponents down when needed. He expects Means to win a decision. He likes less on Means and more on Dalby for the monkey knife fight line.

"tim means is my pick here i think tim needs sort of picks him apart take him down takes him down when he needs to and rides out a decision win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Tim Means

Big Brady picks Tim Means to win by decision, citing superior striking stats (5.16 sig strikes/min, 48% accuracy, 61% striking defense) and Dalby's negative strike differential. He notes Dalby has been dropped in four of seven UFC fights but never KO'd. He thinks Means will out-volume Dalby on the feet, as Dalby rarely wrestles (only one takedown in last five fights). He is confident Means is the better striker.

by decision
"i will take 10 means to win i'm gonna take him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Cody picks Dalby as a live underdog. He notes Dalby's toughness and heart, and that Means has lost as a favorite before. He points out that Means had a fight cancelled last week, which could disrupt his preparation. Cody also mentions Dalby's reach advantage and that Means is 37 with wear and tear. He thinks Dalby can grind Means against the cage and take over late if Means doesn't finish early.

"i'm gonna officially go for the prp sake dolby because again what am i going to do pick all these favorites like i'm recognizing this as a dog with a chance"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Nicolas Dalby

Jacob picks Nicolas Dalby, jokingly citing that Dalby fought Darren Till to a draw in 2015 and outstruck him. He seems to be half-joking but picks Dalby to win. He does not provide serious technical analysis.

"dalby in 2015 bought the best striking middleweight in the world to a draw and outstruck him 111 to 49. we're talking about the greatest middleweight gonna go down of all time one of the greatest strikers of all time future champion darren till dalby fought darren till to a …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Tim Means

Means is a much better striker with higher output than Dalby. If Means keeps the fight vertical, he will light up Dalby. Dalby has knockout power but Means' durability is a concern; however, Means should avoid getting knocked out. Means' efficiency and tight striking will earn him a decision. Dalby's speed and timing could pose issues, but Means is the more proven striker.

Means by decision plus 205
"I think that if means is able to keep the swipe vertical which i think he will he's going to light up dolby like a christmas tree himself... I do like tim means here i like tim means actually by decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Tim Means

Paul picks Tim Means, citing Means' better striking and underrated wrestling. He notes Means was supposed to fight last week and had a cancelled bout, but that might not be a big issue. He thinks Means has the skills to win, but acknowledges Dalby's toughness and that Means can fade. He is not confident and suggests watching weigh-ins.

"means for me but you know having a fight last week having it cancelled a lot of moving parts definitely uh tune into the weigh-ins"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Tim Means

The MMA Guru picks Tim Means by first-round submission (d'arce choke), citing his crisp boxing and ability to land straight shots down the pipe. He identifies defensive holes in Dalby's striking, as seen in the Jesse Ronson fight, and believes Means will hurt Dalby, prompting a bad takedown that leads to a choke. He trusts Means' composure and experience.

first round submission, d'arce choke
"i'm gonna go with tim means i think he's gonna get a first round ko over nicholas dalby"