UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021 · Welterweight · Completed
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Age 31
Height 6' 1"
Reach 77.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 44
Height 5' 6"
Reach 67.0"
Weight 170 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Shavkat Rakhmonov
3.25 SLpM
60.0% Str. Acc.
2.17 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.4 TD Avg
25.0% TD Acc.
85.0% TD Def.
1.2 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Michel Prazeres
2.38 SLpM
47.0% Str. Acc.
2.51 SApM
57.0% Str. Def.
3.94 TD Avg
36.0% TD Acc.
47.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Shavkat Rakhmonov
Moneyline
BetMGM -300
KO/TKO
BetMGM +225
Submission
BetRivers +600
Decision
BetWay +240
Michel Prazeres
Moneyline
FanDuel +290
KO/TKO
BetRivers +1200
Submission
BetWay +1000
Decision
BetRivers +450
Shavkat Rakhmonov - Fight History
Decision (unanimous) (48–47, 48–47, 48–47) R5 5:00 · UFC 310: Pantoja vs. Asakura · Dec 07, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 37 of 67 55% 65 of 102 2 of 10 20% 0 1 11:41
Ian Machado Garry 0 42 of 84 50% 102 of 157 1 of 2 50% 2 0 2:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 2 of 5 40% 13 of 16 0 of 3 0% 0 0 3:20
Ian Machado Garry 0 3 of 4 75% 14 of 17 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:09
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 15 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:31
Ian Machado Garry 0 10 of 24 41% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 19 57% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:11
Ian Machado Garry 0 14 of 34 41% 14 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:08
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 14 of 22 63% 19 of 30 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:55
Ian Machado Garry 0 11 of 16 68% 23 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:13
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 1 of 3 33% 7 of 12 0 of 3 0% 0 1 2:44
Ian Machado Garry 0 4 of 6 66% 38 of 46 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:36
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 37 of 67 55% 29 of 55 6 of 10 2 of 2 24 of 50 3 of 4 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 42 of 84 50% 11 of 40 10 of 15 21 of 29 35 of 72 7 of 12 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 2 of 5 40% 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 3 1 of 2 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 9 of 16 0 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 10 of 24 41% 2 of 12 2 of 3 6 of 9 8 of 20 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 19 57% 7 of 14 4 of 5 0 of 0 10 of 18 1 of 1 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 14 of 34 41% 4 of 16 3 of 7 7 of 11 14 of 31 0 of 3 0 of 0
4 Shavkat Rakhmonov 14 of 22 63% 11 of 19 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 8 1 of 1 10 of 13
Ian Machado Garry 11 of 16 68% 2 of 6 3 of 3 6 of 7 10 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0
5 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Ian Machado Garry 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Nov 30, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but is nervous. He notes Shavkat has more ways to win (KO, submission) and is dangerous everywhere, but his takedowns are not great (1 for 5 against Wonderboy) and he hasn't fought meaningful time. Ian Garry accepted this fight on short notice, which suggests he knows something. Angelo is leaning Shavkat but may just watch and enjoy.

Minus 350, might just watch and enjoy
"I'm going to pick shavkat rakman off but I'm a little nervous here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and wins over tough opponents. He notes Rakhmonov's takedown accuracy is low but he finds the neck when needed. He has concerns about Rakhmonov's striking lulls and Garry's potential in a kickboxing match, but still favors Rakhmonov.

"I'm going to take Shavkat to get the job done and hand Ian Garry his first career loss."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor believes Shavkat's clinch game and pressure will be decisive. He notes that Shavkat has terrible striking defense but is durable and confident, and that his ability to get into the clinch and break opponents down is reminiscent of Khabib. Connor thinks Garry will have success at range early but will eventually give ground and get caught in clinches, leading to a finish. He also mentions the training partner dynamic, where Shavkat got the better of Garry on the ground.

Shavkat opened at -238, currently -372; Garry opened at +204, currently +304. Connor thinks the line is too wide but still favors Shavkat.
"I am inclined to take Shavkat. Even if I think Gary is going to show up some of his striking."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel believes Rakhmonov's clinch work and physicality will be too much for Garry. He notes Garry's vulnerability after being dropped by Keenan Song and questions his vegan diet's effect on muscle mass. He expects Rakhmonov to close distance methodically and hand Garry his first loss.

"I'm gonna go Shaftcat Rammon up to come out here, hand Ian Gary his first ever loss."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing that the Michael Venom Page fight showed the ceiling of Ian Garry's striking. He argues that Garry's grappling ace won't work against Rakhmonov, who has superior wrestling and submission skills. Vreeland notes Rakhmonov's striking is good enough to hang with Garry, and his finishing upside is all on his side, especially in a five-round fight where it gets worse for Garry.

"yeah and I'm still going Rockman off uh for me you know you watch that and Gary fight with Mich zenom page and it was like okay there's the ceiling on Machado Gary striking right and and we kind of …"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox agrees with Rakhmonov, noting that the MVP fight was not encouraging for Garry and that this is a massive step up. He questions Garry's path to victory, suggesting a decision is possible but would mean 15 minutes of danger. Fox points out that the finishing upside is all on Rakhmonov, especially in a five-round fight, making it even worse for Garry.

"no there's no real holes at least he hasn't shown any holes yet uh sha cut hasn't not that Gary is is looked bad but yeah that mvp fight was not encouraging um it's it's a big step up from …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Ian Machado Garry

Lucrative James picks Ian Garry as a significant underdog, calling it a 50/50 fight. He believes Garry's slick striking, body work, and BJJ will be enough to outpoint Rakhmonov. He notes Garry's durability is underrated and that the former sparring partner dynamic adds volatility. He trusts Garry's cardio and toughness to persevere.

"I actually think Ian Gary is going to win this fight... I'm picking Ian Gary outright in this one boys."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 6, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Although the line is wide in favor of Rakhmonov, Gary could provide resistance with his technical striking and walk Rakhmonov into some shots. However, the ultimate difference maker will be Rakhmonov's aggressiveness, which will wear down Gary and lead to a finish within rounds three or four.

finish within rounds 3-4
"I do believe the ultimate differen maker is going to be the aggressiveness on Rock manov which event eventually wears down Gary and leads to a finish for rock manov within rounds three or four"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 4, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, emphasizing his finishing ability and superior competition. He criticizes Garry's hype and close fights, noting his takedown defense and cardio concerns. He thinks Rakhmonov's grappling will be the difference, but acknowledges the line is too heavy to bet heavily.

"Rakhmonov is going to take him down... I think Rakhmonov wins this fight wide."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 3, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat, but acknowledges Ian Garry's solid chance. He thinks Garry will be winning early, but Shavkat will crack him in the third or fourth round, leading to a momentum shift. He notes Garry is more likely to break (leg, hand, body shot) and that Shavkat's pressure and clinch work will be decisive. He predicts a TKO win against the cage in the late third or fourth round.

Shavkat wins by TKO in round 3 or 4
"I got shavkat but hear me out Ian Gary's got a solid chance here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Dec 5, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees with Connor, highlighting Shavkat's clinch expertise and Garry's tendency to back up under pressure. He notes that Garry's risk aversion and lack of elite athleticism will be exposed, and that Shavkat's finishing ability will likely lead to a stoppage. Zane also points out that Garry's recent performances have been lackluster and that he struggles when pressured.

"I think Shavkat's going to be champ here very, very soon."
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 4:56 · UFC 296: Edwards vs. Covington · Dec 16, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 28 of 36 77% 73 of 88 1 of 5 20% 2 0 7:45
Stephen Thompson 0 16 of 25 64% 26 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 12 of 20 60% 25 of 34 0 of 2 0% 0 0 3:25
Stephen Thompson 0 10 of 14 71% 14 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 16 of 16 100% 48 of 54 1 of 3 33% 2 0 4:20
Stephen Thompson 0 6 of 11 54% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 28 of 36 77% 24 of 31 4 of 5 0 of 0 5 of 8 10 of 15 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 16 of 25 64% 6 of 15 7 of 7 3 of 3 13 of 22 1 of 1 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 12 of 20 60% 9 of 16 3 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 9 of 14 0 of 0
Stephen Thompson 10 of 14 71% 3 of 7 4 of 4 3 of 3 9 of 13 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 16 of 16 100% 15 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2 1 of 1 13 of 13
Stephen Thompson 6 of 11 54% 3 of 8 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 10, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling it a 'spite matchup' by the UFC. He believes Shavkat's wrestling and finishing ability will be too much for the 40-year-old Thompson, who has historically lost to heavy grapplers. He includes Shavkat in his 'anti-40 parlay'.

Anti-40 parlay leg; finish expected
"shavkat is going to be the pick... shavkat is in that anti-40 parlay as well"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by second-round TKO, calling it a stylistic nightmare for Stephen Thompson. He highlights Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (17 finishes), vicious ground and pound, and submission threat. Brady notes Thompson's poor takedown defense and age (40), contrasting with Rakhmonov's youth and wrestling ability. He expects Rakhmonov to take Thompson down and finish with ground strikes, similar to Belal Muhammad's near-TKO of Thompson.

"give me shovot to win this fight by second round TKO vicious grounded pound TKO incoming"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov but is hesitant due to the -650 price. He notes that Rakhmonov's wrestling was ineffective against Jeff Neal (0 for 4 takedowns) and that Thompson's movement and length could cause problems. However, he believes the takedown threat will be there and that Rakhmonov is younger and improving. He says he has no intention of betting the fight because the line is too high.

"shavkat is the pick I have no intention of betting that fight though"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Vreeland picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, emphasizing that Thompson is past his prime and no longer has the power or speed to keep Rakhmonov at range. He notes that Rakhmonov is not afraid to close distance and will be better in the clinch, on the ground, and in the pocket. Vreeland doubts that 40-year-old Thompson can fight a gritty fight or survive Rakhmonov's pressure.

"shavkat is the pick here"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jeff Fox picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, stating that Rakhmonov is a killer and Thompson is an old fighter who will take a beating. He notes that Rakhmonov is better everywhere the fight goes. Fox also mentions that Thompson's win over Kevin Holland was cumulative, not a big knockout, and that Thompson's current outfighting style won't work against Rakhmonov.

"rachmanov is our pick here"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lucrative James is confident Shavkat Rakhmonov will finish Stephen Thompson inside the distance. He believes Shavkat's pressure, clinch strikes, and takedowns will be too much for Thompson, who he thinks will get tired and cut up. He notes that Belal Muhammad almost TKO'd Thompson twice on the ground, so he sees a finish by TKO or submission as likely.

Inside the distance finish.
"I think Shavkat is going to run through him... Stephen Thompson's gonna get finished inside the distance."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host sees this as a horrible stylistic matchup for Thompson, as Rakhmonov is a strong grappler who will take Thompson down and finish him. He references how Gilbert Burns and Belal Muhammad ground out Thompson, and believes Rakhmonov is even more dangerous on top. He expects Rakhmonov to get the takedown easily, secure a dominant position, and get a TKO or submission inside the distance. He advises against betting on Thompson even at plus odds.

Rakhmonov inside the distance
"shavat Rak manov probably more dangerous than those guys when he's able to get them to the ground and I think that will see Rock manov get him to the ground pretty easily here get that dominant position I think …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, believing the takedowns will be there early and often against Thompson. He acknowledges Thompson's takedown defense has been poor against wrestlers like Gilbert Burns and Kevin Holland. Paul thinks Rakhmonov will find submissions or control, though he admits the Jeff Neal fight exposed some flaws. He still sees Rakhmonov as the pick but agrees the price is too high to bet.

"I think shavkat will have the takedowns I think the time to fade shavkat is coming as he's going to break into this top five"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 12, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov over Stephen Thompson, emphasizing Shavkat's size, strength, and clinch game. He notes that Thompson survived against Belal Muhammad and Gilbert Burns, but Shavkat's trips and top pressure will be different. He predicts Shavkat will use an outside trip from the clinch, get to half guard, and finish with an arm triangle.

Shavkat by submission (arm triangle) in round 2
"shavkat rachmanov arm triangle it's sad but that's what I see happening here... I'm going to go with shavkat getting an arm triangle working his way through after getting half Guard from an outside trip up against the cage"
WIN vs Geoff Neal
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 4:17 · UFC 285: Jones vs. Gane · Mar 04, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 69 of 145 47% 69 of 145 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
Geoff Neal 0 113 of 179 63% 120 of 186 0 of 4 0% 1 0 3:43
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 29 of 54 53% 29 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:48
Geoff Neal 0 43 of 64 67% 46 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:37
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 57 35% 20 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 70 50% 35 of 70 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:51
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 20 of 34 58% 20 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Geoff Neal 0 35 of 45 77% 39 of 49 0 of 2 0% 1 0 2:15
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 69 of 145 47% 63 of 136 4 of 6 2 of 3 57 of 129 12 of 16 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 113 of 179 63% 69 of 130 39 of 44 5 of 5 74 of 131 39 of 48 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 29 of 54 53% 27 of 51 1 of 1 1 of 2 23 of 47 6 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 43 of 64 67% 26 of 44 17 of 20 0 of 0 32 of 50 11 of 14 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 57 35% 18 of 53 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 55 1 of 2 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 70 50% 20 of 54 13 of 14 2 of 2 25 of 56 10 of 14 0 of 0
3 Shavkat Rakhmonov 20 of 34 58% 18 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 15 of 27 5 of 7 0 of 0
Geoff Neal 35 of 45 77% 23 of 32 9 of 10 3 of 3 17 of 25 18 of 20 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, calling him an absolute savage who can submit, knock out, or outwrestle opponents. He notes that Rakhmonov is on a different level and should get the job done. Angelo thinks -500 is fine for parlays.

"I love shaft cat here I think he's on an entirely different level I think he does what he wants I think he gets it done"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, citing his size, power, and submission game. He notes Neal has good takedown defense but was taken down by Neil Magny, and Rakhmonov is a better wrestler. He predicts a second-round submission for Rakhmonov, but acknowledges if the fight stays standing, it gets interesting.

second round submission
"I like shopkop by submission... I'll say second round submission win for shot rockmanov"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is high on Rakhmonov, calling him 'the truth' and praising his well-rounded game, clinch work, and finishing ability. He thinks Neal's power is a threat but that Rakhmonov's grappling and fight IQ will be too much. He expects Rakhmonov to win but is unsure if he finishes Neal.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov; considers inside the distance but not confident
"I think he's the truth and he's extremely well-rounded"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Connor picks Rakhmonov confidently, noting Neal's limited toolkit (left hand, left kick) and inability to adjust. He expects Rakhmonov to use his creativity and clinch work to overwhelm Neal, who will likely run into clinches where Rakhmonov can wrestle and land strikes. He acknowledges Neal's toughness and power but sees the matchup as stylistically poor for Neal.

Mentions Rakhmonov opened at -435, now -528; Neal +350 to +378.
"It's hard not to see Rakhmonov just sort of ending up in a winning position at some point."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob is confident in Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that his toughest test on paper was Neil Magny, whom he dominated. He believes Rakhmonov is too rangy and skilled for Geoff Neal, who relies on power. Jacob expects a first or second round finish.

first or second round finish
"I think it's a first or second second round finish"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a pressure grappler with a 100% finish rate. Neal is a good striker but has struggled against pressure grapplers. Rakhmonov will take the fight to the ground and submit Neal. The fight doesn't go to decision.

fight doesn't go to decision, Rakhmonov by submission
"fight doesn't go to the decision is going to be my favorite spot for this matchup... I'm still going to end up going with the shot Cat Rock one outside to win this fight via submission"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 1, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody that Rakhmonov is the truth and expects him to win. He notes Neal's takedown defense is good but thinks Rakhmonov is a different level. He likes the over 1.5 takedowns prop for Rakhmonov.

Over 1.5 takedowns for Rakhmonov (-155)
"I think shop costs the truth won't be backing Neil"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 27, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, despite noting the odds are too wide. He questions Neal's recent performances and believes Rakhmonov's wild style and grappling will be too much, though he acknowledges Neal's KO power.

Comments on odds being too wide
"I'm gonna go with shav cat rachmanov... I do not agree that he should be a six to one favorite here."
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 2, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Zane agrees, highlighting Neal's predictability and lack of adaptability. He notes Rakhmonov's willingness to experiment and clinch, and that Neal's straight-line entries will lead to clinches where Rakhmonov can dominate. He sees Neal's only path as an early knockout, but Rakhmonov's size and confidence make that unlikely.

"Neil will also lead himself to the clinch. He's going to get wrestled in the clinch."
WIN vs Neil Magny
Submission (guillotine choke) R2 4:58 · UFC on ESPN: Tsarukyan vs. Gamrot · Jun 25, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 22 50% 21 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 19 of 36 52% 56 of 79 2 of 2 100% 1 0 9:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 7 of 10 70% 10 of 16 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Neil Magny 0 12 of 20 60% 27 of 38 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:43
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 4 of 12 33% 11 of 19 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Neil Magny 0 7 of 16 43% 29 of 41 1 of 1 100% 1 0 4:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 22 50% 6 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 4 8 of 16 0 of 0 3 of 6
Neil Magny 19 of 36 52% 17 of 34 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 7 of 10 70% 4 of 6 2 of 2 1 of 2 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
Neil Magny 12 of 20 60% 11 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 19
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 4 of 12 33% 2 of 10 0 of 0 2 of 2 4 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 1
Neil Magny 7 of 16 43% 6 of 15 1 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 7
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 19, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov confidently, noting his 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills. He expects Rakhmonov to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win, similar to how Michael Chiesa took Magny down four times. He believes Magny's recent performances against Max Griffin and Jeff Neal show vulnerability.

"i like shaft cat to have success striking but ultimately lean on his wrestling for the win shove cat rachmanoff is my pick and i'm pretty confident"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round knockout. He is very confident, citing Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate (8 KO, 7 sub), power in hands and kicks, and underrated submission game. He notes Magny's poor chin (dropped often, finished 6 times) and that he was dropped by Max Griffin. He sees Magny's only path as holding Rakhmonov against the cage, but doubts judges will score that. He expects Rakhmonov to hurt and finish Magny early.

Rakhmonov wins by KO in round 1
"i think he hurts magne bad i think he finished him in the very first round and i think he does it by knockout so give me shove rock banav"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is sold on Rakhmonov as a finisher with excellent submission game and power. He notes Magni hasn't been finished in a while but thinks Rakhmonov's precision and finishing ability will get the job done. He recommends Rakhmonov inside the distance at -135.

Rakhmonov inside the distance -135 at DraftKings
"i think if you're gonna play this line rachmaninov 15 wins 15 finishes minus 135 at draftkings sportsbook i think that's the play"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul agrees with Cody, noting Magni's recent performance against Max Griffin was poor and age may be catching up. He thinks Rakhmonov is precise and fights long, and he leans towards inside the distance by knockout.

"i would lean towards inside the distance by knockout yeah"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 20, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting that Max Griffin dropped Neil Magny and almost won, and Rakhmonov is much better than Griffin. He believes Rakhmonov will finish Magny in the first round, possibly by submission (d'arce choke). He cites Magny's history of losing to top competition and his inability to outgrapple Rakhmonov.

first round finish prediction, d'arce choke
"i am going to go with chavcat rachmanov over neil magna"
KO (spinning hook kick and punches) R1 4:10 · UFC Fight Night: Hermansson vs. Strickland · Feb 05, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 1 13 of 28 46% 16 of 31 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:52
Carlston Harris 0 10 of 27 37% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 13 of 28 46% 10 of 25 3 of 3 0 of 0 9 of 20 0 of 0 4 of 8
Carlston Harris 10 of 27 37% 3 of 13 6 of 10 1 of 4 8 of 25 2 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Carlston Harris vs. Shavkat Rakhmonov

Round 1
It’s a welterweight rumble on the docket now between two surging prospects each looking for their third win in as many tries when Rakhmonov (14-0, 2-0 UFC) takes on Harris (17-4, 2-0 UFC). This classic battle of Kazakhstan vs. Guyana will draw the attention of referee Mike Beltran, although the tensions are not high as they show respect with a touch of gloves. The center of the cage immediately belongs to Rakhmonov, who swats away a punch to the body as he slowly advances. Harris kicks the body and swipes out with a left as Rakhmonov comes towards him, and Harris whiffs on a big right hand as well. Harris has a left hand bounce off the cheek, only to walk into a one-two that makes him bend over. Harris fires back with a strike to the body, as he lunges in with a few right hands to the torso. Rakhmonov’s volume is low, as the Kazakh picks his shots from range. Rakhmonov catches a swinging Harris with a right hand, and Harris recklessly attacks and gets kicked hard to the body with a spinning kick. Rakhmonov races ahead, sensing he might have hurt “Mocambique,” and he lands a body shot before Harris grabs hold of him. They dance back and forth in pursuit of takedowns from each man, and Rakhmonov pushes him hard against the fence before lifting Harris in the air. Harris manages to keep his balance as Rakhmonov lifts him up, sets him down and picks him up again to elevate and drop. The Guyana native turns Rakhmonov to the fence, and he starts stomping on toes in an old-school manner. While Harris thwarts one trip attempt, the second succeeds, and Rakhmonov drops his foe right on his head. Harris keeps moving, scrambling well enough to get back to his feet without issue.
In the blink of an eye, Rakhmonov spins with a hook kick to the head, and the heel smashes into the side of Harris’ dome. Harris topples to the mat, and Rakhmonov leaps down to hunt for a finish. Harris throws his legs up to try to keep Rakhmonov off of him, but Rakhmonov tosses them aside and drops down hammers in the form of punches. “Nomad” blasts Harris a couple times with long standing-to-ground punches until Harris’ consciousness is stripped away, and Beltran is quick to notice this and halt the fight.
That’s 15 wins in 15 tries for Rakhmonov, with all 15 ending inside the distance. As he makes the sign to the crowd for dollar bills, he also signals to the UFC that he is a serious contender on the rise at 170 pounds.

The Official Result
Shavkat Rakhmonov def. Carlston Harris R1 4:10 via KO (Spinning Hook Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov but warns the odds are too wide. He notes Rakhmonov is a special prospect with finishes everywhere, but Harris is a gamer with solid grappling and opportunistic submissions. Angelo gives the edge to Rakhmonov for his power and wrestling, but expects a tough fight. He suggests buying a round on the judges' scorecards.

Odds comment: Rakhmonov is a 3-to-1 favorite, but Angelo thinks it's closer. Suggests betting on the fight to go to decision.
"rachmaninov is the pick don't let the odds fool you it's not the lock that they think it is"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody is torn but leans Rakhmonov. He loves Rakhmonov's skills and thinks he is a future star. He notes that Harris is a savvy veteran with good grappling and power, and that Rakhmonov had some clinch struggles against Cowboy Oliveira. However, he thinks Rakhmonov's overall game is superior and that he will get the job done.

"i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Daniel Levi picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, praising his well-rounded game, durability, and finishing ability. He notes Rakhmonov has beaten solid competition and has a 77-inch reach. Levi believes Carlston Harris may gas in later rounds due to his bouncing movement, while Rakhmonov's cardio and pressure will take over. He respects Harris's awkward power and experience but sees Rakhmonov as a buzzsaw who will outwork him down the stretch.

"the pick is shaft cat but all respect to carlson i enjoy watching him fight too"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 3, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Lock of the Night favors Rakhmonov, citing his cleaner striking and better gas tank. He notes that Rakhmonov gives up double underhooks easily, which is Harris's strength, but believes Rakhmonov's jiu-jitsu and cardio will allow him to take over later. He expects Rakhmonov to clip Harris and finish via ground and pound or submission. He likes the over 1.5 rounds and Rakhmonov inside the distance.

over 1.5 rounds -140, Rakhmonov inside the distance +100, Rakhmonov in round 3 +1000
"i think shabcat's grappling is legit i think it's good his jiu jitsu is good"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 2, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul is high on Rakhmonov, calling him a future title challenger. He notes Rakhmonov's smooth striking, good wrestling, and physical strength. He acknowledges that Harris is a live underdog with good grappling and power, but he thinks Rakhmonov's skills are special. He is backing Rakhmonov but admits he has been burned by having too much faith in prospects.

"as of now i'm backing rack mono but again where have i been getting burned is having too much faith in these guys"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 31, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Carlston Harris

The MMA Guru picks Carlston Harris as an upset, calling it an 'evens matchup' despite wide odds. He notes Harris has beaten a Dagestani phenom before (Sajid Izakanev) and is more explosive. He predicts a second-round TKO, with Harris cracking Rakhmonov on the chin and finishing with ground strikes. He criticizes Rakhmonov's previous competition as weak.

TKO, round 2, upset pick, odds comment (should be evens)
"i'm going to go with carlston harris over shafkat rachmanov and i think it's an absolute disaster that this fight is so far apart in odds i think this is an evens matchup"
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 21 of 35 60% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:25
Michel Prazeres 0 6 of 14 42% 32 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 10 of 17 58% 46 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Michel Prazeres 0 5 of 10 50% 31 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 18 61% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:02
Michel Prazeres 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 21 of 35 60% 15 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 1 10 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 11
Michel Prazeres 6 of 14 42% 1 of 6 0 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 10 of 17 58% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
Michel Prazeres 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 18 61% 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Michel Prazeres 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"
WIN vs Alex Oliveira
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 4:40 · UFC 254: Khabib vs. Gaethje · Oct 24, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 9 of 18 50% 16 of 26 0 of 2 0% 0 0 2:04
Alex Oliveira 0 13 of 25 52% 32 of 44 0 of 2 0% 1 0 0:44
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 9 of 18 50% 3 of 9 3 of 5 3 of 4 4 of 12 5 of 6 0 of 0
Alex Oliveira 13 of 25 52% 6 of 14 4 of 8 3 of 3 10 of 19 3 of 6 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 20, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting he bet him at +135. He believes Rakhmonov is the higher output fighter and that Oliveira's takedown defense is suspect. He predicts a third-round knockout, as Oliveira has been finished before. He also notes Oliveira is on short notice.

third round knockout, inside the distance
"give me a shove cat rachmanov i want to say he can win a decision but he's never done that before i'm gonna pick him to win inside the distance here uh give me a third round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 23, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Alex Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Alex Oliveira, disagreeing with the line and stating Oliveira should be a favorite. He believes Rakhmonov is overrated due to being mistaken for Russian, and that Oliveira's body of work and physicality will be too much. He warns Oliveira not to pull a stunt and expects him to win by decision, possibly by pinning Rakhmonov against the fence and kneeing the body.

Oliveira should be at least -185; Rakhmonov is not Russian but Kazakh; Oliveira missed weight at 173 lbs but has won after missing weight before
"i'm going with alex cowboy oliveira to defeat shavatt rockman"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 19, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The host likes Shavkat Rakhmonov as a dog, citing his undefeated record, finishing ability, and strong ground game. He notes that Alex Oliveira is a wild card with cardio issues and inconsistent performances. He sees value at +155 but is not fully committed.

under 2.5 rounds
"i do like the rachmaninov line at least plus 155 it's not too bad"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2020 (8 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Rakhmonov is undefeated (12-0), has run through M1 and Battle of the Nomads, and has beaten experienced opponents. He believes Oliveira is overrated as a 2-to-1 favorite, has been KO'd many times, and is taking the fight on short notice at an older age.

first round TKO
"i think chefcat rachmandov is going to go out there get the upset and get himself a first round tko finish"
Michel Prazeres - Fight History
Submission (rear-naked choke) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 21 of 35 60% 64 of 81 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:25
Michel Prazeres 0 6 of 14 42% 32 of 40 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 10 of 17 58% 46 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:23
Michel Prazeres 0 5 of 10 50% 31 of 36 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:54
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 0 11 of 18 61% 18 of 27 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:02
Michel Prazeres 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Shavkat Rakhmonov 21 of 35 60% 15 of 26 6 of 8 0 of 1 10 of 20 4 of 4 7 of 11
Michel Prazeres 6 of 14 42% 1 of 6 0 of 2 5 of 6 6 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Shavkat Rakhmonov 10 of 17 58% 6 of 11 4 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 9 4 of 4 2 of 4
Michel Prazeres 5 of 10 50% 1 of 5 0 of 1 4 of 4 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Shavkat Rakhmonov 11 of 18 61% 9 of 15 2 of 3 0 of 0 6 of 11 0 of 0 5 of 7
Michel Prazeres 1 of 4 25% 0 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 2 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"
LOSS vs Ismail Naurdiev
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Błachowicz vs. Santos · Feb 23, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Ismail Naurdiev 0 15 of 35 42% 25 of 47 3 of 13 23% 0 1 6:02
Michel Prazeres 0 63 of 103 61% 105 of 157 0 of 1 0% 1 2 3:49
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Ismail Naurdiev 0 7 of 13 53% 12 of 20 1 of 5 20% 0 1 2:53
Michel Prazeres 0 19 of 33 57% 27 of 43 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:59
2 Ismail Naurdiev 0 2 of 12 16% 4 of 14 1 of 5 20% 0 0 1:24
Michel Prazeres 0 21 of 32 65% 31 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:57
3 Ismail Naurdiev 0 6 of 10 60% 9 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:45
Michel Prazeres 0 23 of 38 60% 47 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:53
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Ismail Naurdiev 15 of 35 42% 11 of 29 2 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 30 1 of 1 3 of 4
Michel Prazeres 63 of 103 61% 36 of 70 14 of 16 13 of 17 36 of 70 6 of 7 21 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Ismail Naurdiev 7 of 13 53% 6 of 12 0 of 0 1 of 1 4 of 9 0 of 0 3 of 4
Michel Prazeres 19 of 33 57% 10 of 22 2 of 3 7 of 8 11 of 21 1 of 2 7 of 10
2 Ismail Naurdiev 2 of 12 16% 1 of 9 0 of 2 1 of 1 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0
Michel Prazeres 21 of 32 65% 9 of 19 7 of 7 5 of 6 15 of 26 4 of 4 2 of 2
3 Ismail Naurdiev 6 of 10 60% 4 of 8 2 of 2 0 of 0 5 of 9 1 of 1 0 of 0
Michel Prazeres 23 of 38 60% 17 of 29 5 of 6 1 of 3 10 of 23 1 of 1 12 of 14
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:02 · UFC Fight Night: Magny vs. Ponzinibbio · Nov 17, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Prazeres 1 18 of 23 78% 26 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Bartosz Fabiński 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Prazeres 1 18 of 23 78% 26 of 32 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:48
Bartosz Fabiński 0 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Prazeres 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 1 of 2 14 of 16
Bartosz Fabiński 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Prazeres 18 of 23 78% 18 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 5 1 of 2 14 of 16
Bartosz Fabiński 1 of 5 20% 0 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Zak Cummings
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Maia vs. Usman · May 19, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Prazeres 0 28 of 92 30% 62 of 128 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:13
Zak Cummings 0 30 of 76 39% 32 of 78 3 of 9 33% 0 0 2:44
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Prazeres 0 6 of 24 25% 15 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zak Cummings 0 11 of 21 52% 12 of 22 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:27
2 Michel Prazeres 0 7 of 28 25% 23 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:51
Zak Cummings 0 8 of 26 30% 9 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:44
3 Michel Prazeres 0 15 of 40 37% 24 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Zak Cummings 0 11 of 29 37% 11 of 29 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Prazeres 28 of 92 30% 12 of 64 11 of 21 5 of 7 15 of 74 13 of 18 0 of 0
Zak Cummings 30 of 76 39% 20 of 59 4 of 7 6 of 10 29 of 72 1 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Prazeres 6 of 24 25% 3 of 16 2 of 5 1 of 3 5 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Zak Cummings 11 of 21 52% 6 of 16 2 of 2 3 of 3 11 of 21 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michel Prazeres 7 of 28 25% 4 of 22 1 of 4 2 of 2 2 of 18 5 of 10 0 of 0
Zak Cummings 8 of 26 30% 6 of 20 0 of 2 2 of 4 8 of 23 0 of 3 0 of 0
3 Michel Prazeres 15 of 40 37% 5 of 26 8 of 12 2 of 2 8 of 33 7 of 7 0 of 0
Zak Cummings 11 of 29 37% 8 of 23 2 of 3 1 of 3 10 of 28 1 of 1 0 of 0
WIN vs Desmond Green
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Machida vs. Anders · Feb 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Prazeres 0 36 of 72 50% 70 of 106 3 of 8 37% 3 0 3:56
Desmond Green 0 33 of 61 54% 50 of 79 3 of 6 50% 0 0 2:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Prazeres 0 9 of 17 52% 14 of 22 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:34
Desmond Green 0 16 of 25 64% 28 of 37 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:35
2 Michel Prazeres 0 10 of 17 58% 21 of 28 1 of 1 100% 3 0 1:54
Desmond Green 0 4 of 7 57% 9 of 13 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:11
3 Michel Prazeres 0 17 of 38 44% 35 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:28
Desmond Green 0 13 of 29 44% 13 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Prazeres 36 of 72 50% 22 of 52 8 of 14 6 of 6 17 of 51 6 of 7 13 of 14
Desmond Green 33 of 61 54% 9 of 36 15 of 15 9 of 10 20 of 45 13 of 16 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Prazeres 9 of 17 52% 4 of 10 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 13 1 of 1 3 of 3
Desmond Green 16 of 25 64% 0 of 8 7 of 7 9 of 10 5 of 12 11 of 13 0 of 0
2 Michel Prazeres 10 of 17 58% 7 of 13 2 of 3 1 of 1 3 of 10 5 of 5 2 of 2
Desmond Green 4 of 7 57% 0 of 3 4 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Michel Prazeres 17 of 38 44% 11 of 29 3 of 6 3 of 3 9 of 28 0 of 1 8 of 9
Desmond Green 13 of 29 44% 9 of 25 4 of 4 0 of 0 12 of 27 1 of 2 0 of 0
WIN vs Mads Burnell
Submission (north-south choke) R3 1:26 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Struve · Sep 02, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Prazeres 0 26 of 48 54% 43 of 69 4 of 6 66% 1 0 8:49
Mads Burnell 0 10 of 30 33% 12 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:21
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Prazeres 0 8 of 13 61% 15 of 23 2 of 3 66% 0 0 4:13
Mads Burnell 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:17
2 Michel Prazeres 0 15 of 25 60% 25 of 36 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:50
Mads Burnell 0 7 of 16 43% 8 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:04
3 Michel Prazeres 0 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:46
Mads Burnell 0 2 of 13 15% 2 of 13 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Prazeres 26 of 48 54% 21 of 38 5 of 10 0 of 0 11 of 31 4 of 5 11 of 12
Mads Burnell 10 of 30 33% 4 of 21 5 of 8 1 of 1 8 of 27 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Prazeres 8 of 13 61% 7 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 6 1 of 1 5 of 6
Mads Burnell 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Michel Prazeres 15 of 25 60% 12 of 20 3 of 5 0 of 0 6 of 15 3 of 4 6 of 6
Mads Burnell 7 of 16 43% 3 of 10 3 of 5 1 of 1 5 of 13 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Michel Prazeres 3 of 10 30% 2 of 7 1 of 3 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
Mads Burnell 2 of 13 15% 1 of 11 1 of 2 0 of 0 2 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Submission (north-south choke) R1 1:42 · UFC Fight Night: Belfort vs. Gastelum · Mar 11, 2017
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Prazeres 0 24 of 34 70% 34 of 45 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:11
Joshua Burkman 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Prazeres 0 24 of 34 70% 34 of 45 2 of 3 66% 1 0 1:11
Joshua Burkman 0 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Prazeres 24 of 34 70% 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 12 of 19 8 of 8
Joshua Burkman 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Prazeres 24 of 34 70% 24 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7 12 of 19 8 of 8
Joshua Burkman 1 of 1 100% 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
WIN vs Gilbert Burns
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Cyborg vs. Lansberg · Sep 24, 2016
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Michel Prazeres 0 46 of 122 37% 46 of 122 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 67 of 169 39% 70 of 176 5 of 7 71% 0 0 1:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Michel Prazeres 0 15 of 40 37% 15 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 20 of 52 38% 20 of 52 3 of 4 75% 0 0 0:15
2 Michel Prazeres 0 19 of 45 42% 19 of 45 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 22 of 56 39% 22 of 56 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
3 Michel Prazeres 0 12 of 37 32% 12 of 37 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:00
Gilbert Burns 0 25 of 61 40% 28 of 68 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Michel Prazeres 46 of 122 37% 24 of 94 13 of 15 9 of 13 40 of 112 5 of 9 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 67 of 169 39% 30 of 113 15 of 26 22 of 30 63 of 156 2 of 5 2 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Michel Prazeres 15 of 40 37% 9 of 32 3 of 3 3 of 5 13 of 36 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 20 of 52 38% 11 of 36 4 of 8 5 of 8 19 of 47 1 of 2 0 of 3
2 Michel Prazeres 19 of 45 42% 6 of 31 7 of 7 6 of 7 17 of 41 2 of 4 0 of 0
Gilbert Burns 22 of 56 39% 10 of 41 2 of 4 10 of 11 21 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Michel Prazeres 12 of 37 32% 9 of 31 3 of 5 0 of 1 10 of 35 1 of 1 1 of 1
Gilbert Burns 25 of 61 40% 9 of 36 9 of 14 7 of 11 23 of 55 0 of 1 2 of 5
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Gilbert Burns vs. Michel Prazeres

Round 1
Prazeres catches a kick from Burns and pushes the off-balance “Durinho” to the ground in the center of the cage, landing a straight right hand in the process. Burns tries to lure Prazeres to the ground, can’t, and instead stands up to circle the outside. Prazeres gives chase and walks into a cracking hook from Burns, who can’t capitalize on the knockdown before “Tractor” powers back to his feet. Prazeres gets a kick on the cup but quickly recovers from the inadvertant foul, and the lightweights are back to work with three minutes remaining. Burns connects with a left hook, jumps into range and lands a knee to the body, then circles away before Prazeres can retaliate. Prazeres wraps up Burns at the waist and hits a quick trip takedown, but he can’t keep Burns on the floor.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Burns
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Burns
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Burns

Round 2
Burns’ outstretched hand sticks Prazeres with a finger in the left eye during the first exchange of the round. Prazeres doesn’t seem too badly affected by the foul, and the fight resumes within a minute. They fight for another 20 or 30 seconds before Burns once more kicks Prazeres on the cup. Burns apologizes for the foul when the fight gets back underway. “Durinho” slips to the ground and invites Prazeres to come down, but Prazeres wants nothing to do with the BJJ black belt’s guard. Burns dives for a takedown, gets stuffed and stands up right away to knee Prazeres in the face. The pace slows further in the middle of the round, with neither lightweight being particularly active in the striking department. Prazeres stuffs a late takedown attempt and steps forward to bounce an overhand right off Burns’ face. Burns counters the next punch with a nice hook, but he looks to be fading as he draws a deep breath and lets his hands drop to his waist.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Prazeres
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Prazeres
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Prazeres

Round 3
Prazeres backs up Burns to the fence and hurts him with a hard kick to the body. Prazeres stuffs him to the ground and tries to pound him out, but Burns slows the attack by controlling Prazeres’ wrists. Prazeres complains to referee Osiris Maia that Burns is grabbing inside his gloves. Seconds later, Prazeres yanks his hands free and slugs Burns’ face with a hard shot. Prazeres allows Burns to stand with about 3:30 remaining in the fight. Burns circles to his left around the edge of the cage, hands low but still jogging in place in front of his opponent. Burns whiffs on a spinning attack and gets popped with a pair of punches to the body. Down to the final two minutes now, and Prazeres is just stalking Burns around the cage. Burns occasionally bursts toward his opponent with a knee or punch, but Prazeres continues to land the more accurate stikes. Burns comes alive in the final 30 seconds, winging hard combinations at Prazeres, whose hands are now dropping low, too. Prazeres gets the final word, however, as he grabs a kick and runs Burns to the ground in the center of the cage.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round 10-9 Prazeres (29-28 Prazeres)
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Prazeres (29-28 Prazeres)
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Prazeres (29-28 Prazeres)

The Official Result
Michel Prazeres def. Gilbert Burns via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Angelo picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, noting his 100% finish rate, ability to win anywhere, and the massive reach advantage. He acknowledges Prazeres' desperation takedowns and competence on the ground but believes Rakhmonov can win anywhere. Angelo is confident but notes the over on rounds as a possible prop.

over on rounds
"i think rachmanoff can win anywhere and and basically will win anywhere"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Big Brady picks Shavkat Rakhmonov to win by third round KO, citing massive physical advantages (13 years younger, 12-inch reach advantage) and Prazeres's long layoff, age (39), and PED suspension. He notes Rakhmonov's 100% finish rate and well-rounded skills, while Prazeres has never been finished but may gas out. He expects Rakhmonov to pull away as the fight goes on.

by KO, third round
"i'm going to say rock band wins by third round ko"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Cody picks Rakhmonov, citing his reach advantage and youth. He notes Prazeres is 39, coming off a two-year USADA suspension, and looked bad in his last fight. He thinks Prazeres' best weapon (size and strength at 155) is neutralized at 170. Rakhmonov's length and striking should allow him to pick Prazeres apart if he can stuff takedowns. Cody expects Prazeres to press early but fade.

"i would have to go again with another favorite chavez mount rockmon who i was high coming into the ufc cash that ticket at a good odds in my opinion over cowboy oliveira"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Jacob picks Shavkat Rakhmonov, echoing Angelo's point that Rakhmonov has more ways to win. He notes Prazeres has many decisions and is not a finisher. The only worry is if Rakhmonov chases a guillotine and ends up on his back. Jacob has Rakhmonov in his lineup at 9100.

"i'm gonna take a line out of your uh playbook because you always say when one fighter just has more ways to win than the other fighter i think that's exactly what this is with rakhmanov"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Rakhmonov is a promising prospect with a strong grappling game, but he needs to prove himself against a veteran like Prazeres. Prazeres has never been finished and has a non-existent neck, making submissions difficult. Rakhmonov should control the fight and win a decision. However, the price is too high for a fighter with only one UFC win, so I'm not making him my lock.

Rakhmonov by decision
"I like rachmaninov here i think he wins by decision but i'm not running home yet to uh throw him into all my parleys"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

Paul picks Rakhmonov, noting his finishing ability and reach advantage. He thinks Prazeres is too old and off a long layoff to be effective. He expects Rakhmonov to keep the fight at range and eventually find a finish. He is not worried about Prazeres' takedowns because Rakhmonov is a combat sambo specialist.

"rachmanoff i i didn't think that his his debut was all that impressive but i think it's onwards and upwards"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Shavkat Rakhmonov

The MMA Guru picks Shavkat Rakhmonov by first-round guillotine choke, predicting he will hurt Prazeres on the feet, prompting a panic takedown that Rakhmonov will capitalize on. He acknowledges Prazeres' underrated resume but notes his age (39) and long layoff (over two years) as major concerns. He trusts Rakhmonov's undefeated record and ability to overcome adversity.

first round guillotine choke
"i'm gonna pick him to win by guillotine again"