Career Averages - Charles Rosa
Career Averages - Justin Jaynes
Charles Rosa
Justin Jaynes
Charles Rosa - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 97 of 159 | 61% | 102 of 166 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 167 | 30% | 54 of 170 | 2 of 9 | 22% | 1 | 0 | 0:52 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 39 of 62 | 62% | 43 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:42 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 31 of 51 | 60% | 31 of 51 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 12 of 42 | 28% | 12 of 42 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 0 | 27 of 46 | 58% | 28 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 14 of 62 | 22% | 17 of 65 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nathaniel Wood | 97 of 159 | 61% | 62 of 111 | 4 of 13 | 31 of 35 | 87 of 144 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 167 | 30% | 21 of 120 | 18 of 29 | 12 of 18 | 43 of 156 | 6 of 9 | 2 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nathaniel Wood | 39 of 62 | 62% | 27 of 44 | 3 of 7 | 9 of 11 | 38 of 61 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 25 of 63 | 39% | 9 of 43 | 10 of 13 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 59 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Nathaniel Wood | 31 of 51 | 60% | 18 of 33 | 1 of 4 | 12 of 14 | 26 of 43 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 6 |
| Charles Rosa | 12 of 42 | 28% | 6 of 29 | 2 of 5 | 4 of 8 | 11 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Nathaniel Wood | 27 of 46 | 58% | 17 of 34 | 0 of 2 | 10 of 10 | 23 of 40 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 14 of 62 | 22% | 6 of 48 | 6 of 11 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 56 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.
Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.
Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.
Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.
Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.
The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 0 | 58 of 99 | 58% | 88 of 141 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 3 | 2 | 7:39 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 46 of 107 | 42% | 71 of 132 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 2:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 35 of 67 | 52% | 38 of 70 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 1:36 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 34 of 73 | 46% | 39 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 16 of 23 | 69% | 29 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 2 | 3:34 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 24 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:26 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 21 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:29 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 10 | 30% | 8 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T.J. Brown | 58 of 99 | 58% | 46 of 85 | 10 of 12 | 2 of 2 | 49 of 87 | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 |
| Charles Rosa | 46 of 107 | 42% | 21 of 76 | 5 of 10 | 20 of 21 | 42 of 99 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | T.J. Brown | 35 of 67 | 52% | 26 of 56 | 8 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 31 of 60 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 34 of 73 | 46% | 14 of 49 | 5 of 9 | 15 of 15 | 34 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | T.J. Brown | 16 of 23 | 69% | 14 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 9 of 24 | 37% | 4 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 3 | T.J. Brown | 7 of 9 | 77% | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 10 | 30% | 3 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 |
Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.
Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.
Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.
The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.
Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 0 | 34 of 87 | 39% | 116 of 181 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 1 | 1:18 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 41 of 87 | 47% | 53 of 101 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 2 | 3 | 10:24 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 22 of 61 | 36% | 30 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 19 of 47 | 40% | 24 of 53 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 8 of 22 | 36% | 27 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 19 of 37 | 51% | 26 of 45 | 4 of 8 | 50% | 1 | 1 | 4:05 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 0 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 59 of 65 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 1:12 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 2 | 3:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Damon Jackson | 34 of 87 | 39% | 17 of 66 | 4 of 8 | 13 of 13 | 26 of 76 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 41 of 87 | 47% | 33 of 77 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 20 of 58 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Damon Jackson | 22 of 61 | 36% | 8 of 46 | 4 of 5 | 10 of 10 | 18 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 19 of 47 | 40% | 15 of 42 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 9 of 37 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 7 | |
| 2 | Damon Jackson | 8 of 22 | 36% | 5 of 16 | 0 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 7 of 20 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 19 of 37 | 51% | 15 of 32 | 3 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 17 | |
| 3 | Damon Jackson | 4 of 4 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 3 | 100% | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.
Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.
Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.
Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.
Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.
The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.
Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.
The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 182 | 28% | 114 of 258 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 51 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 3 | 2:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 35 of 119 | 29% | 36 of 121 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 57 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:21 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 21 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 182 | 28% | 33 of 156 | 8 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 47 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Justin Jaynes | 44 of 92 | 47% | 32 of 79 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 42 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 35 of 119 | 29% | 22 of 101 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 13 of 48 | 27% | 10 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 39 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.
Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.
Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.
Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.
Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.
Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Minner | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 40 of 51 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 2 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 | 45 of 60 | 75% | 96 of 117 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 3 | 0 | 12:34 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 23 of 35 | 65% | 49 of 66 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 | 0 | 3:03 | |
| 2 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 | 15 of 16 | 93% | 32 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:46 | |
| 3 | Darrick Minner | 0 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 20 of 23 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 15 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Darrick Minner | 15 of 25 | 60% | 9 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 4 | 8 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 45 of 60 | 75% | 35 of 49 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 19 of 22 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Darrick Minner | 6 of 11 | 54% | 1 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 23 of 35 | 65% | 18 of 29 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 17 | 4 of 6 | 9 of 12 | |
| 2 | Darrick Minner | 2 of 4 | 50% | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Charles Rosa | 15 of 16 | 93% | 12 of 13 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 8 | |
| 3 | Darrick Minner | 7 of 10 | 70% | 7 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 |
| Charles Rosa | 7 of 9 | 77% | 5 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 69 of 173 | 39% | 69 of 173 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 53 of 135 | 39% | 53 of 135 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 14 of 37 | 37% | 14 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 22 of 50 | 44% | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 17 of 39 | 43% | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 27 of 67 | 40% | 27 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 0 | 22 of 59 | 37% | 22 of 59 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 69 of 173 | 39% | 33 of 119 | 15 of 26 | 21 of 28 | 69 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 53 of 135 | 39% | 34 of 109 | 17 of 22 | 2 of 4 | 50 of 130 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 20 of 56 | 35% | 5 of 34 | 5 of 9 | 10 of 13 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 14 of 37 | 37% | 10 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 32 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 22 of 50 | 44% | 10 of 30 | 6 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 22 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 17 of 39 | 43% | 11 of 31 | 5 of 6 | 1 of 2 | 17 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 27 of 67 | 40% | 18 of 55 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 6 | 27 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kevin Aguilar | 22 of 59 | 37% | 13 of 49 | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 40 of 49 | 81% | 60 of 74 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 5 | 0 | 12:51 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 12 of 17 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 11 of 13 | 84% | 12 of 14 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:22 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 17 of 21 | 80% | 28 of 32 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 20 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:52 |
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 6 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bryce Mitchell | 40 of 49 | 81% | 27 of 36 | 13 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 40 of 46 |
| Charles Rosa | 5 of 10 | 50% | 2 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bryce Mitchell | 11 of 13 | 84% | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 12 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Bryce Mitchell | 17 of 21 | 80% | 12 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 17 of 20 |
| Charles Rosa | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Bryce Mitchell | 12 of 15 | 80% | 7 of 10 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 14 |
| Charles Rosa | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.
Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.
Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Manny Bermudez | 0 | 27 of 38 | 71% | 37 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:17 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 32 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 6 of 8 | 75% | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Manny Bermudez | 27 of 38 | 71% | 25 of 36 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 26 of 32 |
Justin Jaynes - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 0 | 51 of 182 | 28% | 114 of 258 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 1 | 3:37 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 44 of 92 | 47% | 51 of 101 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 3 | 2:53 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 35 of 119 | 29% | 36 of 121 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 41 | 46% | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:05 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 3 of 15 | 20% | 57 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 1:21 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 10 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 2 | 1:16 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 0 | 13 of 48 | 27% | 21 of 59 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 43 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Charles Rosa | 51 of 182 | 28% | 33 of 156 | 8 of 15 | 10 of 11 | 47 of 173 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
| Justin Jaynes | 44 of 92 | 47% | 32 of 79 | 9 of 9 | 3 of 4 | 42 of 89 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charles Rosa | 35 of 119 | 29% | 22 of 101 | 5 of 9 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 116 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 41 | 46% | 13 of 34 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Charles Rosa | 3 of 15 | 20% | 1 of 12 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 12 | 50% | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Charles Rosa | 13 of 48 | 27% | 10 of 43 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Justin Jaynes | 19 of 39 | 48% | 14 of 34 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.
Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.
Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.
Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.
Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.
Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 0 | 34 of 65 | 52% | 46 of 78 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:08 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 19 of 35 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 0 | 25 of 51 | 49% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Devonte Smith | 0 | 9 of 14 | 64% | 19 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:06 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 10 of 11 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Devonte Smith | 34 of 65 | 52% | 25 of 54 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 21 of 45 | 5 of 8 | 8 of 12 |
| Justin Jaynes | 11 of 27 | 40% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Devonte Smith | 25 of 51 | 49% | 19 of 43 | 2 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 20 of 43 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 9 of 24 | 37% | 5 of 19 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Devonte Smith | 9 of 14 | 64% | 6 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 12 |
| Justin Jaynes | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.
The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Benítez | 1 | 38 of 104 | 36% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Benítez | 1 | 38 of 104 | 36% | 38 of 104 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 22 of 52 | 42% | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gabriel Benítez | 38 of 104 | 36% | 20 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Justin Jaynes | 22 of 52 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gabriel Benítez | 38 of 104 | 36% | 20 of 83 | 10 of 12 | 8 of 9 | 34 of 99 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 5 |
| Justin Jaynes | 22 of 52 | 42% | 16 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Gabriel Benítez, noting the line flipped from Benítez opening as an underdog to now being a heavy favorite. He likes Benítez's leg kicks and overall striking, and believes if Benítez survives Jaynes's early storm, he will take over. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Jaynes has never been knocked out but Benítez has finishing ability. He notes Jaynes is a 'one-round and bust' fighter with poor cardio.
Daniel picks Gabriel Benítez but with hesitation, noting that Justin Jaynes has first-round power and has scored knockdowns in both his UFC fights. He believes if Benítez can survive the first round, his body kicks and experience will take over. He cites Javier Mendez calling Benítez the hardest kicker he's ever held pads for, harder than Luke Rockhold or Cain Velasquez. However, he acknowledges Benítez's suspect chin and the emotional weight on Jaynes fighting for his sick father, which historically hasn't favored fighters.
The host picks Gabriel Benítez to win by third round TKO. He highlights Benítez's leg kicks, technical striking, and cardio advantage over Justin Jaynes, who has a narrow path to victory and questionable gas tank. He believes Benítez will chew up the lead leg and finish late as Jaynes fades. He is very confident, giving Benítez a 75% chance of winning.
The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Benítez by unanimous decision, expecting him to weather Justin Jaynes' first-round onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds as Jaynes gasses. He notes Benítez has a good chin and has faced tough competition, while Jaynes showed cardio issues in his loss to Gavin Tucker. He predicts a 29-28 scorecard.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Tucker | 0 | 87 of 211 | 41% | 88 of 212 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 4 | 1 | 1:24 |
| Justin Jaynes | 1 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 42 of 103 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 1 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Tucker | 0 | 15 of 48 | 31% | 16 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 1 | 0:35 |
| Justin Jaynes | 1 | 28 of 54 | 51% | 29 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 1 | 0:38 | |
| 2 | Gavin Tucker | 0 | 63 of 137 | 45% | 63 of 137 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 6 of 30 | 20% | 6 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Gavin Tucker | 0 | 9 of 26 | 34% | 9 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 3 | 0 | 0:49 |
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 7 of 17 | 41% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gavin Tucker | 87 of 211 | 41% | 61 of 177 | 23 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 86 of 207 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Justin Jaynes | 41 of 101 | 40% | 30 of 84 | 11 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 31 of 87 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Gavin Tucker | 15 of 48 | 31% | 8 of 37 | 6 of 9 | 1 of 2 | 15 of 48 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 28 of 54 | 51% | 19 of 40 | 9 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 41 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 12 | |
| 2 | Gavin Tucker | 63 of 137 | 45% | 45 of 115 | 16 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 63 of 137 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Justin Jaynes | 6 of 30 | 20% | 5 of 28 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Gavin Tucker | 9 of 26 | 34% | 8 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 1 |
| Justin Jaynes | 7 of 17 | 41% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Jaynes but with caution due to his weight cut to featherweight. He likes Jaynes' power and finishing ability, noting Tucker's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round knockout for Jaynes, but will wait for weigh-ins before betting.
Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, but with low confidence. He notes that Tucker is the cleaner fighter with good footwork and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but his chin and tendency to stop fighting under adversity are concerns. Levi also mentions that Justin Jaynes has power but is sloppy and may gas out if he doesn't get a first-round knockout. He believes Tucker will win a close decision if he doesn't get caught.
Tucker is a black belt under Henzo Gracie with high-level jiu-jitsu and striking. Jaynes is a power puncher with limited skills, and Tucker's leg kicks and movement should neutralize him. The smaller UFC Apex cage still gives Tucker room to stick and move. Tucker likely wins by submission in the second or third round as Jaynes fades.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes because he is the bigger fighter, having fought at lightweight, and is cutting back down to featherweight. He notes that Gavin Tucker hasn't fought since UFC 240 and is 34 years old, which is bad time off. He believes Tucker may have found his ceiling after losing to Rick Glenn, while Jaynes is riding momentum from a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jaynes | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frank Camacho | 1 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jaynes | 0 | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Frank Camacho | 1 | 16 of 30 | 53% | 16 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Jaynes | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frank Camacho | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Justin Jaynes | 4 of 15 | 26% | 4 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Frank Camacho | 16 of 30 | 53% | 14 of 28 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 22 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 3 |
Big Brady picks Frank Camacho despite the close odds, citing Camacho's harder hitting and ability to stuff takedowns. He thinks Camacho will land more convincing strikes and win a close decision, possibly even finishing Jaynes. He notes Jaynes has been knocked out before by a lesser fighter, which is concerning.
Daniel Levi picks Frank Camacho, citing his experience, power, and sneaky trips. He notes that Camacho has fought tougher competition and that Justin Jaynes is a late replacement. Levi expects Camacho to win, possibly by first-round knockout, as Jaynes steps up in competition.
Frevola is a better fighter than Camacho, who has been through wars and found his limit. Frevola's grinding style will be favored by the smaller cage. He will win by decision.
Expert Picks (7)
Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.
Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.
Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.
Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.
Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.
Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.
The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.
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