vs
-160 +140
UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021 · Featherweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov Next Fight
Age 39
Height 5' 9"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Switch
Age 36
Height 5' 7"
Reach 68.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Charles Rosa
3.08 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.86 SApM
47.0% Str. Def.
1.67 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
38.0% TD Def.
1.0 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Justin Jaynes
3.34 SLpM
44.0% Str. Acc.
5.33 SApM
62.0% Str. Def.
0.75 TD Avg
40.0% TD Acc.
20.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Charles Rosa
Moneyline
Caesars -160
KO/TKO
BetMGM +700
Submission
BetRivers +200
Decision
BetRivers +275
Justin Jaynes
Moneyline
BetRivers +140
KO/TKO
BetMGM +400
Submission
BetMGM +1650
Decision
BetMGM +450
Charles Rosa - Fight History
LOSS vs Nathaniel Wood
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–26, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Aspinall · Jul 23, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Nathaniel Wood 0 97 of 159 61% 102 of 166 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:25
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 167 30% 54 of 170 2 of 9 22% 1 0 0:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Nathaniel Wood 0 39 of 62 62% 43 of 66 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Charles Rosa 0 25 of 63 39% 25 of 63 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:42
2 Nathaniel Wood 0 31 of 51 60% 31 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:15
Charles Rosa 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Nathaniel Wood 0 27 of 46 58% 28 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
Charles Rosa 0 14 of 62 22% 17 of 65 1 of 4 25% 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Nathaniel Wood 97 of 159 61% 62 of 111 4 of 13 31 of 35 87 of 144 5 of 7 5 of 8
Charles Rosa 51 of 167 30% 21 of 120 18 of 29 12 of 18 43 of 156 6 of 9 2 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Nathaniel Wood 39 of 62 62% 27 of 44 3 of 7 9 of 11 38 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 25 of 63 39% 9 of 43 10 of 13 6 of 7 22 of 59 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Nathaniel Wood 31 of 51 60% 18 of 33 1 of 4 12 of 14 26 of 43 1 of 2 4 of 6
Charles Rosa 12 of 42 28% 6 of 29 2 of 5 4 of 8 11 of 41 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Nathaniel Wood 27 of 46 58% 17 of 34 0 of 2 10 of 10 23 of 40 3 of 4 1 of 2
Charles Rosa 14 of 62 22% 6 of 48 6 of 11 2 of 3 10 of 56 3 of 5 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 17, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Angelo picks Nathaniel Wood, citing his superior striking and takedown defense. He notes Wood's 75% takedown defense and high volume of strikes, while Charles Rosa is a BJJ specialist who struggles when taken down. He mentions the Casey Kenny loss as a concern but still believes Wood gets it done and will be a parlay piece.

likely parlay piece
"i still think wood gets it done and he is likely a parlay piece so nathaniel wood probably going to be the first leg of one of my parlays"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Big Brady picks Nathaniel Wood to win by decision. He notes Wood is moving up in weight but has a massive speed and volume advantage on the feet. Rosa's path to victory is a submission off his back, but Wood has good takedown defense. Rosa is tough to finish, so Wood wins a decision.

Wood by decision
"give me nathaniel wood nathaniel wood to win by a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Cody picks Nathaniel Wood, noting he can win wherever the fight goes. He highlights Wood's superior boxing, volume, and footwork. Cody thinks Rosa's only chance is a fluke submission, but Wood's takedown defense and submission defense are solid. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"i think nathaniel wood can win the fight however he wants"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Daniel Levi picks Nathaniel Wood, citing a massive speed advantage and excellent leg kicks. He notes that Charles Rosa is slow, hittable, and easy to take down. Levi warns that Wood should avoid getting caught in a submission or cut, but overall sees this as a good introductory fight for Wood at featherweight.

"i think he's got a massive speed advantage here he's got some of the best leg kicks abandoned weight now he's moving up to featherweight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Wood is the better striker and should touch Rosa up from the outside. Rosa is durable and has good submission defense, but Wood can win a decision. The move up to 145 is a concern, but Rosa isn't a grappler who will exploit the size gap. Wood glides to a decision.

"wood will be the pick"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

Paul picks Nathaniel Wood, stating he should cruise. He notes Rosa flops to his back and Wood can box him up. Paul thinks Wood's volume and striking are superior. He also likes Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks.

Wood over 75.5 significant strikes on PrizePicks
"nathaniel wood should absolutely cruise here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Nathaniel Wood

The MMA Guru confidently picks Nathaniel Wood to win by TKO in the second round. He praises Wood's takedown defense, leg kicks, and speed. Charles Rosa is 35 and hasn't looked good recently. Wood will chop at the legs, stuff takedowns, and eventually brutalize Rosa for a TKO finish.

second round TKO
"i'm gonna go with nathaniel wood getting this one done and i think he gets it done by tko in the second round"
LOSS vs T.J. Brown
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Kattar vs. Chikadze · Jan 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
T.J. Brown 0 58 of 99 58% 88 of 141 6 of 8 75% 3 2 7:39
Charles Rosa 0 46 of 107 42% 71 of 132 0 of 0 --- 1 1 2:42
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 T.J. Brown 0 35 of 67 52% 38 of 70 3 of 4 75% 1 0 1:36
Charles Rosa 0 34 of 73 46% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
2 T.J. Brown 0 16 of 23 69% 29 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 2 3:34
Charles Rosa 0 9 of 24 37% 24 of 39 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:26
3 T.J. Brown 0 7 of 9 77% 21 of 28 2 of 3 66% 0 0 2:29
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 10 30% 8 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:09
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
T.J. Brown 58 of 99 58% 46 of 85 10 of 12 2 of 2 49 of 87 2 of 5 7 of 7
Charles Rosa 46 of 107 42% 21 of 76 5 of 10 20 of 21 42 of 99 1 of 2 3 of 6
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 T.J. Brown 35 of 67 52% 26 of 56 8 of 10 1 of 1 31 of 60 2 of 5 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 34 of 73 46% 14 of 49 5 of 9 15 of 15 34 of 72 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 T.J. Brown 16 of 23 69% 14 of 21 2 of 2 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 9 of 24 37% 4 of 17 0 of 1 5 of 6 7 of 21 0 of 0 2 of 3
3 T.J. Brown 7 of 9 77% 6 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
Charles Rosa 3 of 10 30% 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 6 1 of 1 1 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Big Brady questions T.J. Brown's fight IQ, recalling his poor game plan against Danny Chavez. However, he notes Brown's striking improvements and training at Glory MMA with Bryce Mitchell. He thinks Brown can win if he mixes in takedowns against Benitez's 56% takedown defense, but he cannot trust Brown enough to bet him. He picks Brown as a dog pick but is not confident.

"give me tj brown as far as a dog pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Cody leans toward Brown, citing the blueprint of taking Rosa down and holding him there. He notes Brown's wrestling should be effective. However, he is wary of Brown's low fight IQ and the short notice change. He calls -280 too risky for parlays.

"laying minus 280 on t.j brown it's too much risky risky risky biz man"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
T.J. Brown

Daniel Levi picks T.J. Brown, though he is uncomfortable laying -250. He notes that Brown is better than he has shown, but his chin is questionable and he gets dropped often. However, Levi believes Brown will outwork Charles Rosa, who is on short notice and has poor takedown defense. He thinks Brown's physicality and wrestling will be key, and that Rosa's best days are behind him. Levi expects Brown to win, possibly by finish.

possible finish
"i still am picking him to win this fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

The host picks Gabriel Benitez, praising his southpaw striking, body kicks, and leg kicks. He expects Benitez to use his technical striking to outwork T.J. Brown, who is more chaotic and less technical. The host notes Brown's power and BJJ but believes Benitez's cardio and striking accuracy will secure a decision. He compares the matchup to Brown's loss to Danny Chavez, where leg kicks were effective.

"i'm gonna go with gabrielle benitez and i'll take him to win this fight via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jan 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul leans toward Rosa as a dog, citing his win-loss streak pattern and submission threat. He notes Rosa's takedown defense is poor but Brown's fight IQ is low. He expects Rosa might catch Brown in a submission. He advises waiting for weigh-ins and possibly better odds.

Rosa by submission (if prop becomes available)
"i think it's dog or pass here a hundred percent"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 10, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa (Gabriel Benitez) to win by first-round TKO. He notes that Benitez has devastating kicks, especially calf kicks, which will slow Brown down early. Brown has shown problems with kicks in the past (e.g., against Danny Chavez). He expects Benitez to chop at the legs and body, then clip Brown with a big shot when Brown tries to make something happen. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Brown getting dropped with no base.

"i'm gonna trust gabriel benitez to get this one done i think he's just that next step up in competition"
LOSS vs Damon Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Dern vs. Rodriguez · Oct 09, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Damon Jackson 0 34 of 87 39% 116 of 181 2 of 3 66% 0 1 1:18
Charles Rosa 0 41 of 87 47% 53 of 101 6 of 12 50% 2 3 10:24
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Damon Jackson 0 22 of 61 36% 30 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 47 40% 24 of 53 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:41
2 Damon Jackson 0 8 of 22 36% 27 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:06
Charles Rosa 0 19 of 37 51% 26 of 45 4 of 8 50% 1 1 4:05
3 Damon Jackson 0 4 of 4 100% 59 of 65 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:12
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 1 of 1 100% 1 2 3:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Damon Jackson 34 of 87 39% 17 of 66 4 of 8 13 of 13 26 of 76 5 of 8 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 41 of 87 47% 33 of 77 6 of 8 2 of 2 20 of 58 3 of 3 18 of 26
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Damon Jackson 22 of 61 36% 8 of 46 4 of 5 10 of 10 18 of 55 4 of 6 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 47 40% 15 of 42 3 of 4 1 of 1 9 of 37 3 of 3 7 of 7
2 Damon Jackson 8 of 22 36% 5 of 16 0 of 3 3 of 3 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 19 of 37 51% 15 of 32 3 of 4 1 of 1 10 of 20 0 of 0 9 of 17
3 Damon Jackson 4 of 4 100% 4 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 3
Charles Rosa 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Angelo picks Damon Jackson despite stats favoring Charles Rosa. He likes Jackson's will, determination, and willingness to scrap. He thinks Jackson's fight IQ and grappling can survive Rosa's jiu-jitsu, and his striking could catch Rosa. He also placed a bet on Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at plus 125 as a Hail Mary submission play.

Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action at +125 (0.5 units)
"I did um Charles Rosa inside the distance decision no action. So, Charles Rosa can pull off a submission, I'll get paid. If Charles Rosa loses, a could be a murdering of a decision or even wins a decision, I …"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Big Brady picks Damon Jackson, citing Charles Rosa's poor takedown defense and inability to get up. He references Rosa's fights against Bryce Mitchell and Derrick Minor, where they controlled him with takedowns. Brady believes Jackson can implement a similar game plan, taking Rosa down and controlling him for a decision. He notes he would not bet the line at -180/-190, but thinks Jackson can win comfortably via decision.

win by decision
"give me damage jackson to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks the underdog Rosa, arguing that Jackson's striking is not elite and Rosa's BJJ and counter-striking could be effective. He notes Rosa's durability and ability to win close fights. He believes the line is too wide and Rosa has a live path to victory via decision or submission.

"i'm gonna go with the underdog charles rosa"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi leans toward Charles Rosa as a dog because he views the fight as a 'dog or pass' situation. He notes Rosa's ability to survive submissions and make fights close, but acknowledges his tendency to spend too much time on his back. He expects a close, possibly controversial split decision win for Rosa.

split decision
"i'm gonna lean with charles rosa via close maybe controversial split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Jacob leans towards Damon Jackson but is intrigued by Charles Rosa as an underdog at plus 145. He thinks Rosa's grappling is next-level and could cause problems. He expects a close fight and sees Rosa as an interesting underdog play. He would pick Jackson but might bet Rosa.

Charles Rosa at +145 (possible bet)
"I'm kind of leaning towards Rosa for a betting at 145 cuz I think it's a pretty close fight. But if I were to pick, it would probably be Jackson."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 7, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The host picks Damon Jackson, citing his superior grappling and pressure. He notes Jackson's excellent cardio and ability to control opponents, while Rosa has good submission defense but may be outgrappled. He predicts a decision win for Jackson, which would be only the second decision of Jackson's career, due to Rosa's durability.

"I do like damon jackson in this fight i do think he has great cardio i do think he has the better jits"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 6, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

Paul picks Jackson, citing his better striking and pressure. He notes Rosa's tendency to flop to his back and lack of a striking game plan. He believes Jackson can win on the feet and avoid Rosa's submission threats, though he admits it's not a high-confidence pick.

"damon jackson is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 5, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Damon Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Damon Jackson to win by unanimous decision. He trusts Jackson's defensive grappling and guillotine threats to keep the fight standing, where Jackson has a significant advantage in striking and reach. He dismisses Rosa's striking as poor.

Jackson by unanimous decision
"i'm gonna go with uh damon jackson here over charles roser... i feel like damon jackson wins this one on the feet and i think he wins it by a very lackluster unanimous decision win"
WIN vs Justin Jaynes
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Darrick Minner
Decision (unanimous) (30–26, 30–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. Lewis · Feb 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Darrick Minner 0 15 of 25 60% 40 of 51 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 45 of 60 75% 96 of 117 4 of 5 80% 3 0 12:34
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Darrick Minner 0 6 of 11 54% 11 of 17 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 23 of 35 65% 49 of 66 2 of 3 66% 1 0 3:03
2 Darrick Minner 0 2 of 4 50% 9 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 1 15 of 16 93% 32 of 33 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:46
3 Darrick Minner 0 7 of 10 70% 20 of 23 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Charles Rosa 0 7 of 9 77% 15 of 18 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Darrick Minner 15 of 25 60% 9 of 17 4 of 4 2 of 4 8 of 17 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 45 of 60 75% 35 of 49 5 of 5 5 of 6 21 of 31 5 of 7 19 of 22
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Darrick Minner 6 of 11 54% 1 of 4 3 of 3 2 of 4 6 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 23 of 35 65% 18 of 29 2 of 2 3 of 4 10 of 17 4 of 6 9 of 12
2 Darrick Minner 2 of 4 50% 1 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Charles Rosa 15 of 16 93% 12 of 13 2 of 2 1 of 1 6 of 7 1 of 1 8 of 8
3 Darrick Minner 7 of 10 70% 7 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 8
Charles Rosa 7 of 9 77% 5 of 7 1 of 1 1 of 1 5 of 7 0 of 0 2 of 2
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Feb 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Charles Rosa

Daniel Levi respects Darrick Minner's 20 first-round submissions and his ability to finish quickly, but notes Charles Rosa has never been submitted and survived deep submission attempts against Yair Rodriguez and Bryce Mitchell. Levi thinks if Minner doesn't get the finish in the first round, Rosa's work rate and kicks will overwhelm Minner in the later rounds. He is hesitant to lay the -200 chalk on Rosa but sees more paths to victory for him.

"if it hits the score cards i think 29 28 rosa if it's a late finish i think rosa if it's an early finish winner so more paths for rosa so i'll take rosa here but i would be a …"
WIN vs Kevin Aguilar
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Eye vs. Calvillo · Jun 13, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 69 of 173 39% 69 of 173 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 53 of 135 39% 53 of 135 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 20 of 56 35% 20 of 56 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 14 of 37 37% 14 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Charles Rosa 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 17 of 39 43% 17 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Charles Rosa 0 27 of 67 40% 27 of 67 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Kevin Aguilar 0 22 of 59 37% 22 of 59 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 69 of 173 39% 33 of 119 15 of 26 21 of 28 69 of 173 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 53 of 135 39% 34 of 109 17 of 22 2 of 4 50 of 130 3 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 20 of 56 35% 5 of 34 5 of 9 10 of 13 20 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 14 of 37 37% 10 of 29 4 of 7 0 of 1 11 of 32 3 of 5 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 22 of 50 44% 10 of 30 6 of 11 6 of 9 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 17 of 39 43% 11 of 31 5 of 6 1 of 2 17 of 39 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Charles Rosa 27 of 67 40% 18 of 55 4 of 6 5 of 6 27 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Kevin Aguilar 22 of 59 37% 13 of 49 8 of 9 1 of 1 22 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 8, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

The MMA Guru picks Charles Rosa, noting that he shouldn't be judged by his loss to Bryce Mitchell. He highlights Rosa's jiu-jitsu and striking, recalling that Rosa out-struck Shane Burgos in their fight. He believes Rosa will finish Aguilar by head kick, as Aguilar is coming off a KO loss and a short turnaround.

Rosa wins by KO (head kick)
"Charles Rosa was beating shame Burgos on the feet. He's a jujitsu guy, he was clearly out striking Shane Burgos."
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision (unanimous) (30–25, 30–25, 30–24) R3 5:00 · UFC 249: Ferguson vs. Gaethje · May 09, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 40 of 49 81% 60 of 74 3 of 3 100% 5 0 12:51
Charles Rosa 0 5 of 10 50% 12 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 11 of 13 84% 12 of 14 1 of 1 100% 3 0 3:22
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 1 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 17 of 21 80% 28 of 32 1 of 1 100% 2 0 4:37
Charles Rosa 0 3 of 4 75% 4 of 5 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 12 of 15 80% 20 of 28 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:52
Charles Rosa 0 1 of 5 20% 6 of 10 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 40 of 49 81% 27 of 36 13 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 3 0 of 0 40 of 46
Charles Rosa 5 of 10 50% 2 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 2 4 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 11 of 13 84% 8 of 10 3 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 11 of 12
Charles Rosa 1 of 1 100% 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1
2 Bryce Mitchell 17 of 21 80% 12 of 16 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 17 of 20
Charles Rosa 3 of 4 75% 0 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 12 of 15 80% 7 of 10 5 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 12 of 14
Charles Rosa 1 of 5 20% 1 of 5 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Charles Rosa vs. Bryce Mitchell

Round 1
Dropping down to the featherweight division, we are treated to a matchup between two solid prospects in American Top Team’s Rosa (12-3, 3-3 UFC) and the undefeated Mitchell (12-0, 3-0 UFC). Our referee for this bout is Keith Peterson, and uncharacteristically he is allowing some nonsense by not wearing a mask. The two elect not to touch gloves to kick off their match, and Mitchell immediately stalks Rosa down against the fence. Rosa tries to keep away and throw kicks, but Mitchell is unconcerned and hits a quick single leg takedown. Mitchell ties up the legs to keep Rosa grounded, and Mitchell circles around to take the back. Rosa spins out but is immediately is in the danger zone. Mitchell sets up an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa’s head is changing colors rapidly and thinks about tapping. Rosa continues to flail and almost taps again, but somehow manages to pull his head free. Mitchell is on him like glue, taking the back before hunting for an arm-triangle choke again. Rosa throws his legs up to hunt for an inverted triangle choke, and Mitchell is unconcerned as he spins free. The ensuing exchange miraculously leads to Mitchell setting up a twister, and the commentary booth is losing it. Rosa struggles, turns and tries to survive, and manages to get out for a moment, only to give it up again. In an impressive showing of submission defense, Rosa pulls his body out but surrenders another arm-triangle choke. This time, it’s tight, and Mitchell squeezes with all he has. Rosa’s head turns red quickly once more, but he powers free and remains on his back. Mitchell tries to set up one last submission, but the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 2
Rosa opens the round with a few head kicks, and keep Mitchell at bay for a few seconds. “Thug Nasty” gathers his thoughts and shoots in for a takedown, and immediately passes guard and takes three-quarter mount. Rosa is unable to get any offense going as Mitchell nullifies him, and gives up mount as Mitchell tries to set up another arm-triangle. While Mitchell continues to style on Rosa, the commentary booth ponders the true location of Fight Island -- none of them know. Mitchell drops down a few heavy elbows and punches on top, and Rosa uses that aggression against his opponent to pull for a leglock. Mitchell practically ignores it, before stepping back to mount. He steps over to get an arm-triangle choke, and Rosa stays calm and defends it well enough before Mitchell bails to return to mount. Rosa turns over, and Mitchell thinks about taking his back before setting up another twister. This is unquestionably the record for the most twister attempts in a UFC fight before, and this time it’s tight as a drum. Unfortunately for Mitchell, the horn sounds before he can get the tap, but this is all one-way traffic from “Thug Nasty.”

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell

Round 3
Within 15 seconds, Mitchell dives into a takedown and incredibly sets up another twister. Rosa locks his arm up to hold on tight, but Mitchell pulls on the right arm of Rosa to twist him the other direction. Rosa pushes with all his might to get free, and while he gets out of the bad situation, he is still grounded. “Boston Strong” tries to set up a guillotine off his back, and Mitchell thinks about going after a Von Preux choke until thinking about the arm-triangle choke again. The unbeaten fighter chains submission together one after the other, and props to Rosa for surviving, but it is total domination. Rosa gives up his back, defends a choke and rolls back over. Ever vigilant, Mitchell returns to mount before hunting for the arm-triangle once more. Rosa is cursing out Mitchell for “laying on me” but is not showing the defense to get out of harm’s way. Mitchell takes a high mount and thinks about blasting him with a few shots on top, but Rosa rolls out just in time. Mitchell hops out, turns around and dives back in to secure top position. Mitchell rolls through a crucifix, hammers down a few elbows, takes top position with Rosa’s feet trying to kick off the cage. He successfully does so with seconds to spare, but he is spent -- Mitchell crashes forward to strike him and clinch up, but the round, and fight, is over.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-24 Mitchell)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-8 Mitchell (30-25 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Charles Rosa via Unanimous Decision (30-25, 30-25, 30-24)
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2020 (9 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Big Brady picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his youth, size, and overall superiority on the ground and feet. He downplays Rosa's submission win over Manny Bermudez, calling Bermudez a fraud. He thinks the line at minus 175 is a bit wide and sees little value but still expects Mitchell to win.

Mitchell minus 175; line is a little wide
"I actually like Bryce Mitchell quite a bit here. Uh he's the younger fighter. He's the bigger fighter. I think he's really going to give problems to Rosa um on the ground and on the feet."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked May 5, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Daniel Levi slightly leans towards Bryce Mitchell, citing his athleticism and youth. He notes that Mitchell has holes in his game and may fatigue, but Rosa is a finished product who isn't getting better. Levi thinks Mitchell can get the job done by being younger and fresher, possibly with a late finish.

Mitchell by late finish
"I'll slightly lean with Bryce Mitchell because of the athleticism the youth and things among those lines but it would not surprise me at all if Rosa came out here and got the upset"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 6, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Matt initially considered Mitchell as a lock but after tape review, he favors Rosa as a live dog. He highlights Rosa's leg kicks, offensive guard, and ability to keep the fight standing, while questioning Mitchell's striking development and the impact of training camps during the pandemic. He picks Rosa by decision.

"I think that Charles Rosa definitely is a live dog... I'm going to say Charles Rosa by decision"
Verbal Submission (armbar) R1 2:46 · UFC on ESPN: Reyes vs. Weidman · Oct 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 6 of 8 75% 8 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Manny Bermudez 0 27 of 38 71% 37 of 49 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:17
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 6 of 8 75% 1 of 3 2 of 2 3 of 3 6 of 8 0 of 0 0 of 0
Manny Bermudez 27 of 38 71% 25 of 36 2 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 5 0 of 1 26 of 32
Justin Jaynes - Fight History
LOSS vs Charles Rosa
Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Gane vs. Volkov · Jun 26, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Charles Rosa 0 51 of 182 28% 114 of 258 2 of 2 100% 2 1 3:37
Justin Jaynes 0 44 of 92 47% 51 of 101 2 of 2 100% 2 3 2:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Charles Rosa 0 35 of 119 29% 36 of 121 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:27
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:05
2 Charles Rosa 0 3 of 15 20% 57 of 78 0 of 0 --- 1 1 1:21
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 12 50% 10 of 17 1 of 1 100% 0 2 1:16
3 Charles Rosa 0 13 of 48 27% 21 of 59 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:49
Justin Jaynes 0 19 of 39 48% 22 of 43 1 of 1 100% 2 0 1:32
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Charles Rosa 51 of 182 28% 33 of 156 8 of 15 10 of 11 47 of 173 0 of 0 4 of 9
Justin Jaynes 44 of 92 47% 32 of 79 9 of 9 3 of 4 42 of 89 2 of 2 0 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Charles Rosa 35 of 119 29% 22 of 101 5 of 9 8 of 9 34 of 116 0 of 0 1 of 3
Justin Jaynes 19 of 41 46% 13 of 34 3 of 3 3 of 4 19 of 41 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Charles Rosa 3 of 15 20% 1 of 12 0 of 1 2 of 2 2 of 13 0 of 0 1 of 2
Justin Jaynes 6 of 12 50% 5 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0 5 of 10 1 of 1 0 of 1
3 Charles Rosa 13 of 48 27% 10 of 43 3 of 5 0 of 0 11 of 44 0 of 0 2 of 4
Justin Jaynes 19 of 39 48% 14 of 34 5 of 5 0 of 0 18 of 38 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"
LOSS vs Devonte Smith
TKO (doctor stoppage) R2 3:38 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Volkov · Feb 06, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Devonte Smith 0 34 of 65 52% 46 of 78 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:08
Justin Jaynes 0 11 of 27 40% 19 of 35 0 of 2 0% 0 1 0:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Devonte Smith 0 25 of 51 49% 27 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Justin Jaynes 0 9 of 24 37% 9 of 24 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 Devonte Smith 0 9 of 14 64% 19 of 25 1 of 1 100% 1 0 3:06
Justin Jaynes 0 2 of 3 66% 10 of 11 0 of 1 0% 0 1 0:12
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Devonte Smith 34 of 65 52% 25 of 54 5 of 7 4 of 4 21 of 45 5 of 8 8 of 12
Justin Jaynes 11 of 27 40% 6 of 21 3 of 4 2 of 2 10 of 26 0 of 0 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Devonte Smith 25 of 51 49% 19 of 43 2 of 4 4 of 4 20 of 43 5 of 8 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 9 of 24 37% 5 of 19 2 of 3 2 of 2 9 of 24 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Devonte Smith 9 of 14 64% 6 of 11 3 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 12
Justin Jaynes 2 of 3 66% 1 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 5, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Devonte Smith

Daniel Levi picks Devonte Smith confidently, citing his calf kicks, jab, and straight right. He notes Smith's 8-inch reach advantage and expects him to weather Jaynes' early storm and finish him in the second round. He mentions Smith's bounce-back potential after a torn Achilles and personal issues.

second round knockout
"i got devante smith here second round knockout weather this early storm and you win the fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 30, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Alex da Silva (Justin Jaynes) with hesitation, noting the fight is very close. He was impressed by da Silva's performance against Brad Riddell, showing good striking and grappling. He worries about Devonte Smith's chin after a KO loss to Kamal Worthy and thinks the threat of takedowns will make Smith gun-shy. He predicts a 30-27 unanimous decision for da Silva.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to give the edge to alex de silva purely because he has an option to change things up"
TKO (knee to the body and elbows) R1 4:06 · UFC on ESPN: Hermansson vs. Vettori · Dec 05, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gabriel Benítez 1 38 of 104 36% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gabriel Benítez 1 38 of 104 36% 38 of 104 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 22 of 52 42% 22 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gabriel Benítez 38 of 104 36% 20 of 83 10 of 12 8 of 9 34 of 99 0 of 0 4 of 5
Justin Jaynes 22 of 52 42% 16 of 44 6 of 8 0 of 0 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gabriel Benítez 38 of 104 36% 20 of 83 10 of 12 8 of 9 34 of 99 0 of 0 4 of 5
Justin Jaynes 22 of 52 42% 16 of 44 6 of 8 0 of 0 22 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Big Brady picks Gabriel Benítez, noting the line flipped from Benítez opening as an underdog to now being a heavy favorite. He likes Benítez's leg kicks and overall striking, and believes if Benítez survives Jaynes's early storm, he will take over. He predicts a second-round knockout, as Jaynes has never been knocked out but Benítez has finishing ability. He notes Jaynes is a 'one-round and bust' fighter with poor cardio.

Under 2.5 rounds; Benítez by second-round knockout; Jaynes's cardio a concern; Benítez's leg kicks
"The pick's gonna be Benítez I'm gonna say second round knockout... I'm going to take Benítez to win via second round knockout"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Dec 2, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

Daniel picks Gabriel Benítez but with hesitation, noting that Justin Jaynes has first-round power and has scored knockdowns in both his UFC fights. He believes if Benítez can survive the first round, his body kicks and experience will take over. He cites Javier Mendez calling Benítez the hardest kicker he's ever held pads for, harder than Luke Rockhold or Cain Velasquez. However, he acknowledges Benítez's suspect chin and the emotional weight on Jaynes fighting for his sick father, which historically hasn't favored fighters.

"I think the early go in favors justin janes but if gabrielle can just get past that first round he's gonna take over the fight but it's contingent on getting past that first round so i'll go with mowgli benitez …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

The host picks Gabriel Benítez to win by third round TKO. He highlights Benítez's leg kicks, technical striking, and cardio advantage over Justin Jaynes, who has a narrow path to victory and questionable gas tank. He believes Benítez will chew up the lead leg and finish late as Jaynes fades. He is very confident, giving Benítez a 75% chance of winning.

Third round finish prop; leg kicks will slow Jaynes down; Benítez by KO in third round.
"I do like gabrielle benitez to win this fight probably by third round tko"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 30, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Gabriel Benítez

The MMA Guru picks Gabriel Benítez by unanimous decision, expecting him to weather Justin Jaynes' first-round onslaught and take over in the second and third rounds as Jaynes gasses. He notes Benítez has a good chin and has faced tough competition, while Jaynes showed cardio issues in his loss to Gavin Tucker. He predicts a 29-28 scorecard.

method: unanimous decision, round: decision
"i think gabriel benitez can weather the storm in that first round he's got a good chin"
LOSS vs Gavin Tucker
Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 1:43 · UFC Fight Night: Lewis vs. Oleinik · Aug 08, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Gavin Tucker 0 87 of 211 41% 88 of 212 1 of 2 50% 4 1 1:24
Justin Jaynes 1 41 of 101 40% 42 of 103 0 of 1 0% 1 1 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Gavin Tucker 0 15 of 48 31% 16 of 49 1 of 1 100% 1 1 0:35
Justin Jaynes 1 28 of 54 51% 29 of 55 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:38
2 Gavin Tucker 0 63 of 137 45% 63 of 137 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Justin Jaynes 0 6 of 30 20% 6 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Gavin Tucker 0 9 of 26 34% 9 of 26 0 of 1 0% 3 0 0:49
Justin Jaynes 0 7 of 17 41% 7 of 18 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Gavin Tucker 87 of 211 41% 61 of 177 23 of 30 3 of 4 86 of 207 1 of 3 0 of 1
Justin Jaynes 41 of 101 40% 30 of 84 11 of 17 0 of 0 31 of 87 2 of 2 8 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Gavin Tucker 15 of 48 31% 8 of 37 6 of 9 1 of 2 15 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 28 of 54 51% 19 of 40 9 of 14 0 of 0 19 of 41 1 of 1 8 of 12
2 Gavin Tucker 63 of 137 45% 45 of 115 16 of 20 2 of 2 63 of 137 0 of 0 0 of 0
Justin Jaynes 6 of 30 20% 5 of 28 1 of 2 0 of 0 6 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Gavin Tucker 9 of 26 34% 8 of 25 1 of 1 0 of 0 8 of 22 1 of 3 0 of 1
Justin Jaynes 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 5, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

Big Brady picks Jaynes but with caution due to his weight cut to featherweight. He likes Jaynes' power and finishing ability, noting Tucker's poor striking defense. He predicts a first-round knockout for Jaynes, but will wait for weigh-ins before betting.

"i do like james to win and i probably will bet him but i'm going to wait until the weigh-ins before i do put a bed"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 7, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Daniel Levi picks Gavin Tucker, but with low confidence. He notes that Tucker is the cleaner fighter with good footwork and a black belt in jiu-jitsu, but his chin and tendency to stop fighting under adversity are concerns. Levi also mentions that Justin Jaynes has power but is sloppy and may gas out if he doesn't get a first-round knockout. He believes Tucker will win a close decision if he doesn't get caught.

"i gotta lean with gavin tucker here man i think he's a cleaner fighter all across the board"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 4, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Gavin Tucker

Tucker is a black belt under Henzo Gracie with high-level jiu-jitsu and striking. Jaynes is a power puncher with limited skills, and Tucker's leg kicks and movement should neutralize him. The smaller UFC Apex cage still gives Tucker room to stick and move. Tucker likely wins by submission in the second or third round as Jaynes fades.

third round submission
"I like Gavin Tucker a lot here I think this is a tailor-made matchup for him"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 3, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes because he is the bigger fighter, having fought at lightweight, and is cutting back down to featherweight. He notes that Gavin Tucker hasn't fought since UFC 240 and is 34 years old, which is bad time off. He believes Tucker may have found his ceiling after losing to Rick Glenn, while Jaynes is riding momentum from a first-round TKO over Frank Camacho.

"justin james is gonna win he's the bigger guy he just fought frank camacho at lightweight"
WIN vs Frank Camacho
TKO (punches) R1 0:41 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Justin Jaynes 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Frank Camacho 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Justin Jaynes 0 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Frank Camacho 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Justin Jaynes 4 of 15 26% 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Frank Camacho 16 of 30 53% 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 22 4 of 5 2 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Justin Jaynes 4 of 15 26% 4 of 14 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0
Frank Camacho 16 of 30 53% 14 of 28 2 of 2 0 of 0 10 of 22 4 of 5 2 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Frank Camacho

Big Brady picks Frank Camacho despite the close odds, citing Camacho's harder hitting and ability to stuff takedowns. He thinks Camacho will land more convincing strikes and win a close decision, possibly even finishing Jaynes. He notes Jaynes has been knocked out before by a lesser fighter, which is concerning.

odds: Jaynes minus 120, Camacho plus 100; pick by decision
"I'm gonna go the other side with Frank Camacho I think this fight is very tough for either fighter"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Frank Camacho

Daniel Levi picks Frank Camacho, citing his experience, power, and sneaky trips. He notes that Camacho has fought tougher competition and that Justin Jaynes is a late replacement. Levi expects Camacho to win, possibly by first-round knockout, as Jaynes steps up in competition.

Frank Camacho by first round knockout
"I'm going to go with Frank Camacho here, Shaq."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)

Frevola is a better fighter than Camacho, who has been through wars and found his limit. Frevola's grinding style will be favored by the smaller cage. He will win by decision.

"Matt for volar is gonna beat Frank Camacho I think he gets it done by decision because that just seems to be for voters style"
Expert Picks (7)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Angelo picks Charles Rosa, believing Rosa's jiu-jitsu is fantastic and that he can avoid Jaynes's early storm and take over in later rounds. He notes that Jaynes is not Derrick Minner and that styles make fights. However, he admits he is not confident enough to place a bet on it.

"i think charles rose has the pick here at least for me uh i don't have a bet on it i'm not that confident but i do think charles rose wins this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 22, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Big Brady picks Charles Rosa to win by third round submission, citing Jaynes's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Rosa's durability (only one KO loss) and well-rounded skills, while Jaynes is a one-round fighter with 33% takedown defense. He expects Rosa to weather the early storm and take over as Jaynes gasses.

by submission, third round
"i'm going to take charles rosa to win by third round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Cody picks Rosa, noting that Jaynes has zero takedown accuracy and is a brawler who fades. Rosa's takedown defense is a liability, but Jaynes doesn't wrestle. Rosa's striking and cardio should allow him to outwork Jaynes. Cody thinks Rosa is untrustworthy but the style matchup favors him. He notes Rosa is coming off a loss, which historically makes him more reliable.

"i gotta make the play on a few of them and i think that styles make fights i've always said that this is this is a style clash that would favor him for a change"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Jacob picks Charles Rosa by submission or decision, noting that Rosa always gets submissions or loses decisions. He thinks Jaynes will try to wrestle, which will be a mistake, and Rosa will find a submission. Jacob is not confident enough to put Rosa in his lineup at 8600 but believes Rosa wins.

"yeah so i have charles rosa listed as submission or decision because it seems like he always gets submissions or he loses decisions"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lock picked Jun 24, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Rosa is my lock of the night. Jaynes is not UFC caliber and has no defense. Rosa has durability, striking technique, and can take Jaynes down. He should invest in body shots early to slow Jaynes down, then find a submission in the second round. Rosa's only kryptonite is being ground out, but Jaynes can't do that. Rosa should be a much bigger favorite.

Rosa by submission plus 210; Rosa inside the distance plus 145; under 2.5 rounds minus 125
"Charles rosa is actually my locker then i played for this week... I truly believe that justin james is not a ufc caliber fighter"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jun 23, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Charles Rosa

Paul picks Rosa but lost trust after his loss to Minor. He notes Rosa's pattern of alternating wins and losses. He thinks Rosa should stick to grappling and avoid brawling. He acknowledges Jaynes' power but thinks Rosa's experience and durability will carry him.

"i'll pick charles rosa but uh losing against men or he uh he lost my trust"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 21, 2021 (5 days before fight)
Justin Jaynes

The MMA Guru picks Justin Jaynes as a big upset, citing his ferocity and early-round finishing ability. He criticizes Charles Rosa's striking defense and believes Jaynes will expose those holes, predicting a first-round KO. He notes Rosa's decline after his Shane Burgos fight and considers Jaynes the fresher fighter at 31.

first round KO
"i think he's gonna crack charles rosa on the chin and i'm gonna go with justin james with a big upset"