UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill

Big Brady picks Angela Hill, citing that she is on the rise while Waterson is trending down. He believes Hill has a significant advantage on the feet and has shown improvements in her ground game, which is Waterson's path to victory. He notes that Waterson is tough and has never been finished by strikes, but expects Hill to win by decision due to volume striking.

The host believes Waterson is the better fighter overall, with superior jiu-jitsu and experience in five-round fights. He expects her to mix in takedowns and eventually secure a submission in the later rounds. However, he is concerned about her recent performance against Carla Esparza and wants a better price than +105. He likes the submission prop at +540.

The MMA Guru picks Angela Hill dominantly, criticizing Michelle Waterson for not throwing strikes with intent and calling her 'mom champ' annoying. He believes Hill is really good despite her record and should be a massive favorite. He expects Hill to chew up Waterson's legs, win every round, and possibly get a submission in the later rounds, predicting a third-round finish or unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Khama Worthy, noting that Worthy has rejuvenated his career since moving up to 155 lbs and has a touch of death. He acknowledges that Azaitar hits extremely hard and has been rocked in fights, but Worthy's length and reach advantage could be key. He is not betting this fight but is looking at the under.

The host is not a Worthy believer and thinks Azaitar's power and activity in the first round can draw out Worthy's counters and land his own. He likes Azaitar by first-round KO and mentions the prop at +350. However, he is skeptical about betting Azaitar at plus money and would prefer a better price.

The MMA Guru picks Khama Worthy, noting that Ottman Azaitar has been fed hand-picked opponents and has a criminal past but hasn't faced someone with Worthy's experience. He believes Worthy's patience and experience against tough competition will allow him to survive Azaitar's early onslaught, then slow the fight down and eventually get a third-round submission.

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.

The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks King Green, believing this is a winnable fight for him. He notes Green has a huge advantage on the feet and decent takedown defense and get-up game. He is fairly confident but acknowledges Green tends to lose close decisions. He predicts Green by decision, as Patrick has never lost by decision.

The host likes Patrick's grinding style and believes he can push Green against the cage and secure takedowns, but is hesitant due to Patrick's two-year layoff. He thinks the line is too wide on Green and would prefer Green at -150, but ultimately picks Patrick by decision while staying away from betting the fight.

The MMA Guru picks Bobby Green (King Green) due to his excellent takedown defense and superior striking. He notes that Alan Patrick has a good ground game but hasn't fought since 2018 and has had multiple cancellations, while Green has been active and looked great against Lando Vannata. He expects Green to stuff takedowns, jab Patrick's face, and win a competitive unanimous decision.

Big Brady is very high on Billy Quarantillo, citing his unreal heart, toughness, and cardio. He notes Quarantillo tends to drop the first round but if he survives, he will win convincingly. He recommends getting the fight to the ground to tire Nelson, and predicts a second-round submission.

The host believes Quarantillo's pace, pressure, and black belt jiu-jitsu will be too much for Nelson, who has cardio issues and poor takedown defense. He expects a submission victory, likely in the second round, and likes the inside the distance prop at +110 as better value than the moneyline.

The MMA Guru picks Billy Quarantillo, noting that Kyle Nelson is explosive early but hasn't faced Quarantillo's level. He highlights Quarantillo's experience against Spike Carlyle, where he showed patience and cardio. He expects Quarantillo to lose the first round but rally with his grappling and pacing to win a unanimous decision in the second and third rounds.

Big Brady picks Julia Avila, but expects the fight to be closer than the odds suggest. He notes Eubanks has crisp boxing and hits hard, but her cardio is a concern. Avila has decent upside and ground game, but he is worried about Eubanks' takedowns. He predicts Avila by decision, but cannot bet it himself.

The host expects Avila's pressure and 'raging panda' style to overwhelm Eubanks, who tends to fade later in fights. He notes Avila has good cardio, striking, and grappling, and predicts a second-round TKO. He also mentions the 'fight doesn't go to decision' prop at +130 as a potential play.

The MMA Guru picks Julia Avila based on her convincing win over Gina Mazany and her victory over Pannie Kianzad, who beat Bethe Correia, who in turn beat Sijara Eubanks. He notes that Eubanks had a close decision with Aspen Ladd but believes Avila will out-strike her for three rounds and keep the fight standing, winning by unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Roosevelt Roberts, noting that Roberts has a length advantage on the feet and a good submission game. He expects Frevola to take Roberts down and control him, but Roberts is slick on the ground and could get a reversal or submission. He predicts Roberts by decision, as long as he stays out of a submission.

The host favors Frevola's superior wrestling and overall game, believing he can take Roberts down repeatedly and wear him out. He notes Roberts has fast hands but poor takedown defense, and Frevola has power in his hands as well. He expects Frevola to win a decision or possibly get a finish, and considers him one of his stronger leans on the card.

The MMA Guru picks Roosevelt Roberts but is hesitant, noting that Matt Frevola puts heavy pressure and shoots many takedowns. However, he believes Roberts has improved dramatically, is younger, and has shown confidence in his stand-up against Brock Weaver. He expects Roberts to survive early scrambles and take over in the second and third rounds, winning a close 29-28 unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov, stating he is a finisher who will take Martinez down and end the fight shortly after. He notes Romanov has 100% finish rate and is exciting to watch. He expects the fight to end in the first round and will look at the under 1.5 rounds if it's plus money.

The host expects Romanov to rush in, take Martinez down, and ground and pound him for a quick finish, likely in the first round. He notes Martinez's sketchy resume and lack of knockout power, while Romanov is agile and aggressive. He plans to look for the first-round finish prop.

Big Brady picks Frank Camacho, but notes that Camacho's chin and cardio are liabilities. He is not high on Weaver, who has poor ground game and lacks power. He says if Camacho looks overweight or bad at weigh-ins, he would switch his pick. He expects Camacho to win, but it's a fight to wait on weigh-ins.

The host is confident Turner wins, citing his superior jiu-jitsu, length, and improving stand-up. He believes Weaver's only path is to take Turner down and hold him there, but Turner's active guard and reversals will prevent that. He expects a finish via submission or ground and pound, possibly in the first or second round, and considers Turner a good parlay piece even at -325.

The MMA Guru picks Frank Camacho (Jalin Turner) because he has little respect for Brock Weaver's skills, noting Weaver's close split decisions against low-level opponents and his loss to Roosevelt Roberts. He believes Camacho can win on the feet or via grappling, and expects a unanimous decision victory.

Big Brady is very confident in Bryan Barberena, stating he is the much better fighter and struggles to see a path to victory for Ivy. He notes Barberena has back surgery concerns but looks good on Instagram. He predicts a first-round knockout and considers this a parlay piece.

The host thinks Barberena is overvalued at -275 given his recent losses and potential decline. He likes Ivy's grappling, kicks, and ability to push Barberena against the cage and secure takedowns. He predicts Ivy will control the fight from top position and win a decision, though he also mentions the over 1.5 rounds as a solid play.

The MMA Guru picks Bryan Barberena, citing his great chin, volume, and pressure. He notes that Anthony Ivy was knocked out three months ago and has a worrying chin. He expects Barberena's pace to overwhelm Ivy over time, leading to a third-round TKO or unanimous decision.

Big Brady picks Sabina Mazo, noting she is young and improving, with a reach advantage. He thinks Mazo will bring more volume and out-strike Kish. He predicts Mazo by decision and would be surprised if the fight ends inside the distance. He is not betting it due to the price.

The host believes the line is too wide for Mazo at -250, as Kish has a solid kickboxing background and high output. He notes Mazo has trouble when opponents close distance and with leg kicks, and expects Kish to be the busier fighter, potentially winning a close decision. He advises against parlaying Mazo at such short odds.

The MMA Guru picks Sabina Mazo because he was embarrassed by Justine Kish's boring performance against Lucie Pudilova, where nothing happened. He notes that Mazo is younger (23 vs 32), hungrier, and improving more between fights. He expects Mazo to keep Kish at range and out-strike her for three rounds, winning by unanimous decision.