UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020 · Women's Flyweight · Completed
Prev Fight UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill Next Fight
Age 43
Height 5' 7"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Age 37
Height 5' 6"
Reach 69.0"
Weight 125 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Roxanne Modafferi
3.35 SLpM
30.0% Str. Acc.
5.7 SApM
51.0% Str. Def.
1.35 TD Avg
23.0% TD Acc.
30.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Andrea Lee
4.62 SLpM
45.0% Str. Acc.
3.91 SApM
61.0% Str. Def.
1.65 TD Avg
52.0% TD Acc.
53.0% TD Def.
0.6 Sub. Avg
Roxanne Modafferi - Fight History
LOSS vs Casey O'Neill
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 271: Adesanya vs. Whittaker 2 · Feb 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Casey O'Neill 0 120 of 358 33% 148 of 390 2 of 4 50% 0 0 1:06
Roxanne Modafferi 0 229 of 393 58% 230 of 395 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Casey O'Neill 0 44 of 135 32% 44 of 135 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 130 55% 72 of 130 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Casey O'Neill 0 35 of 118 29% 40 of 123 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:05
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 142 60% 86 of 142 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Casey O'Neill 0 41 of 105 39% 64 of 132 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:01
Roxanne Modafferi 0 71 of 121 58% 72 of 123 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Casey O'Neill 120 of 358 33% 98 of 330 20 of 25 2 of 3 112 of 347 8 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 229 of 393 58% 187 of 348 22 of 25 20 of 20 225 of 387 4 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Casey O'Neill 44 of 135 32% 40 of 129 3 of 4 1 of 2 44 of 135 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 130 55% 55 of 111 7 of 9 10 of 10 72 of 130 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Casey O'Neill 35 of 118 29% 28 of 109 6 of 8 1 of 1 34 of 117 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 142 60% 73 of 129 7 of 7 6 of 6 84 of 140 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Casey O'Neill 41 of 105 39% 30 of 92 11 of 13 0 of 0 34 of 95 7 of 10 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 71 of 121 58% 59 of 108 8 of 9 4 of 4 69 of 117 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Angelo is very confident in O'Neill, calling her too good everywhere. He expects a dominant one-sided decision win, noting Modafferi's toughness but lack of athleticism. He mentions a parlay with Ronnie Lawrence and a potential prop bet on O'Neill by decision.

parlay with Ronnie Lawrence at -110, 2 units; Casey O'Neill by decision prop
"i see a dominant one-sided decision win for casey o'neill and my favorite parlay on this card is a casey o'neill and ronnie lawrence parley i already threw two units on that and i got it at -110"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Big Brady acknowledges O'Neill's poor striking defense but believes she can take down Modafferi at will due to Modafferi's 25% takedown defense. He thinks O'Neill will control the fight on the ground and win a decision. He notes Modafferi is retiring and 39 years old, and while she is tough and has good BJJ defense, he doesn't see her winning. Brady picks O'Neill by decision.

O'Neill by decision
"i think o'neil can take down roxy whenever she wants... write out a decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Cody agrees, highlighting O'Neill's youth, improving skills, and physical strength. He notes Modafferi's takedown defense is poor and that O'Neill can dictate where the fight goes. He sees this as a passing of the torch.

"this is a passing of the torch so to speak"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Daniel Levi picks Casey O'Neill by decision. He acknowledges Modafferi's toughness and black belt in jiu-jitsu, but notes that O'Neill's pace and grappling pressure will be too much. Levi does not expect a finish because Modafferi has not been finished since 2013. He also mentions that Modafferi's retirement mindset may affect her performance.

"just give me casey o'neill will be a decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Feb 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

O'Neill is the younger, more explosive fighter, but Modafferi is durable and has good grappling. O'Neill has shown vulnerabilities in being taken down and controlled, which is Modafferi's strength. Modafferi hasn't been finished in over a decade. O'Neill should eventually get the TKO in the later rounds, but the odds are too wide. This is a no-play for betting.

O'Neill by TKO in round 2 or 3; no bet advised
"i'm still picking quest here i'm she's going to be my prediction but i would not advise getting trigger happy on parlaying her in every single spot"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 9, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

Paul thinks O'Neill's pressure and grappling will be too much for Modafferi. He notes Modafferi has been taken down frequently in recent fights and that O'Neill is strong and relentless. He expects a decision win for O'Neill, possibly a finish.

Casey O'Neill by decision
"i think she's a rifle favorite here with you"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Casey O'Neill

The MMA Guru picks Casey O'Neill by second-round ground-and-pound TKO. He criticizes Modafferi's striking and chin, and believes O'Neill's hunger and grappling will overwhelm the retiring veteran.

second round ground and pound tko
"i'm going to be going with casey o'neil here"
LOSS vs Taila Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 266: Volkanovski vs. Ortega · Sep 25, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Taila Santos 0 18 of 92 19% 43 of 124 0 of 4 0% 0 0 3:02
Roxanne Modafferi 1 55 of 95 57% 118 of 164 5 of 5 100% 0 0 8:03
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Taila Santos 0 6 of 24 25% 19 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 18 of 30 60% 35 of 50 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:50
2 Taila Santos 0 4 of 12 33% 14 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:30
Roxanne Modafferi 0 9 of 17 52% 34 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:49
3 Taila Santos 0 8 of 56 14% 10 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:15
Roxanne Modafferi 1 28 of 48 58% 49 of 71 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:24
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Taila Santos 18 of 92 19% 13 of 85 2 of 3 3 of 4 16 of 90 2 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 55 of 95 57% 38 of 75 8 of 11 9 of 9 40 of 72 8 of 9 7 of 14
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Taila Santos 6 of 24 25% 3 of 20 1 of 1 2 of 3 5 of 23 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 18 of 30 60% 10 of 21 7 of 8 1 of 1 9 of 20 8 of 9 1 of 1
2 Taila Santos 4 of 12 33% 4 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 9 of 17 52% 6 of 12 0 of 2 3 of 3 7 of 13 0 of 0 2 of 4
3 Taila Santos 8 of 56 14% 6 of 53 1 of 2 1 of 1 8 of 56 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 28 of 48 58% 22 of 42 1 of 1 5 of 5 24 of 39 0 of 0 4 of 9
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Angelo picks Santos, highlighting her athleticism, boxing, and fight IQ. He notes she can adjust game plans, as seen in her fight against Molly McCann where she took her down five times. Angelo believes Santos is better everywhere and will cruise to a decision, as Modafferi is tough to finish.

Angelo suggests Santos by decision prop. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet for Modafferi and wins inside the distance decision no action for Modafferi at +200.
"Taylor Santos is the pick"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Taila Santos

Big Brady picks Taila Santos to win by dominant decision. He emphasizes that Santos is a completely different fighter from her debut, having dominated Molly McCann and Gillian Robertson. He sees Santos as younger, stronger, and better everywhere, with no clear path to victory for Modafferi. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on Santos' first fight.

"tawa santos is the real deal you know she's somebody to definitely look out for"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Cody leans towards Modafferi as a value play, noting her durability, grit, and history of cashing as an underdog. He acknowledges Santos' strength and crisp striking but questions her cardio and the wide price. He is hesitant due to Modafferi's age and torn meniscus.

"value is value and i think the value is squarely on roxanne at plus 310"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Hesitant picked Sep 24, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Taila Santos

Daniel Levi picks Taila Santos but is hesitant due to her previous performance against Mara Borella where she refused to throw. He notes that Santos should win dominantly but is concerned about her tendency to freeze, especially with fans returning. He respects Roxanne Modafferi's toughness and ability to upset, but believes Santos is the superior fighter. He advises against betting the -400 line.

betting advice: not laying -400
"all that said give me the superior fighter give me tyler santos is just please don't pull a stun here like please perform to the best of your abilities and you'll win this fight period"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Sep 21, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Jacob picks Modafferi by submission, following her pattern of alternating wins and losses. He feels this is a fight where Modafferi shouldn't win but will find a way. He notes Santos lacks killer instinct and thinks a weird scramble could lead to a submission.

Jacob says he'll take a small flyer on Modafferi by submission at +1200. He also mentions the plus three and a half points bet.
"I'm gonna put a wild weird bet on rockstein by submission"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 25, 2021 (fight day)
Taila Santos

The host picks Taila Santos to win via decision. He believes Santos is a much better striker with improving takedown defense and get-up ability. He expects Santos to pick Modafferi apart from distance and pass her takedown defense test. He notes Modafferi's durability but thinks Santos is on the ascent while Modafferi is on the decline.

Santos by decision at -130
"i am gonna go with tyler santos and i'll pick her to win this fight via decision hit that minus one thirty i like it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Sep 23, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not have a clear pick. He finds Santos' price too high and is wary of Modafferi's injury and age. He considers Modafferi at plus money but is not confident. He will watch weigh-ins before deciding.

"i can't bet taylor at this price"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 19, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Taila Santos

The MMA Guru picks Taila Santos over Roxanne Modafferi, citing Modafferi's age and lack of improvement. He notes that Santos is young, well-rounded, and has a good ground game, which should prevent Modafferi from laying in half guard. He expects Santos to win a unanimous decision, as Modafferi is tough but not skilled enough. He mentions that Santos' win over Molly McCann looks better now, and that Modafferi has over 40 fights but still looks lost.

"i'm going to go with taylor santos here by unanimous decision over rocks and motor fairing"
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Chiesa vs. Magny · Jan 20, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 46 of 184 25% 49 of 193 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:39
Roxanne Modafferi 0 86 of 198 43% 100 of 214 4 of 4 100% 1 0 3:06
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 12 of 61 19% 12 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Roxanne Modafferi 0 34 of 77 44% 37 of 82 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:27
2 Viviane Araújo 0 21 of 71 29% 23 of 73 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:00
Roxanne Modafferi 0 32 of 73 43% 37 of 78 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
3 Viviane Araújo 0 13 of 52 25% 14 of 57 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:22
Roxanne Modafferi 0 20 of 48 41% 26 of 54 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:45
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 46 of 184 25% 40 of 177 2 of 3 4 of 4 45 of 181 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 86 of 198 43% 79 of 187 5 of 8 2 of 3 85 of 192 1 of 2 0 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 12 of 61 19% 10 of 59 1 of 1 1 of 1 12 of 60 0 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 34 of 77 44% 30 of 69 3 of 6 1 of 2 34 of 77 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Viviane Araújo 21 of 71 29% 18 of 68 0 of 0 3 of 3 21 of 71 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 32 of 73 43% 30 of 71 1 of 1 1 of 1 32 of 71 0 of 1 0 of 1
3 Viviane Araújo 13 of 52 25% 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0 12 of 50 1 of 2 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 20 of 48 41% 19 of 47 1 of 1 0 of 0 19 of 44 1 of 1 0 of 3
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

Big Brady calls this a disaster matchup for Roxanne Modafferi. He praises Viviane Araújo's BJJ black belt and believes she is the better striker. He notes Modafferi's low takedown accuracy and Araújo's 92% takedown defense. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, saying Modafferi's path to victory is unlikely. He warns against betting on Modafferi based on past upsets, calling it chasing.

Araújo by decision
"i think this is an absolute disaster of a matchup for roxanne mona ferry"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The host believes Viviane Araújo's crisp striking and ability to avoid clinch positions will be key against Roxanne Modafferi's grappling. He notes Araújo's improvements in getting out of bad positions and her speed advantage. He predicts a decision win for Araújo, but also sees value in her winning inside the distance at +280.

Viviane Araújo inside the distance at +280
"i'll go with arujo i'll go by a decision but i do think plus 280 for her to win inside the distance is worth a little bit of a stab"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 13, 2021 (7 days before fight)
Viviane Araújo

The MMA Guru picks Viviane Araújo, expressing confusion over Modafferi's success. He criticizes Modafferi's skills and believes Araújo has better grappling and striking. He predicts a 30-27 decision win for Araújo.

unanimous decision 30-27
"i'm going to go with vivian arawajo getting the job done she's a little bit smaller i think she wins by decision 30 27"
WIN vs Andrea Lee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Waterson vs. Hill · Sep 12, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 60 of 169 35% 129 of 267 4 of 7 57% 0 0 4:49
Andrea Lee 0 97 of 189 51% 118 of 210 3 of 4 75% 0 2 1:37
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 12 of 27 44% 54 of 80 1 of 2 50% 0 0 2:12
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 33 42% 21 of 40 1 of 2 50% 0 1 1:20
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 29 of 83 34% 30 of 90 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:28
Andrea Lee 0 55 of 94 58% 62 of 101 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:13
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 59 32% 45 of 97 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:09
Andrea Lee 0 28 of 62 45% 35 of 69 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:04
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 60 of 169 35% 56 of 162 2 of 5 2 of 2 57 of 165 0 of 1 3 of 3
Andrea Lee 97 of 189 51% 50 of 128 23 of 36 24 of 25 89 of 178 5 of 8 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 12 of 27 44% 11 of 26 1 of 1 0 of 0 9 of 24 0 of 0 3 of 3
Andrea Lee 14 of 33 42% 3 of 20 5 of 6 6 of 7 10 of 28 2 of 3 2 of 2
2 Roxanne Modafferi 29 of 83 34% 28 of 81 0 of 1 1 of 1 29 of 82 0 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 55 of 94 58% 35 of 71 12 of 15 8 of 8 52 of 89 2 of 4 1 of 1
3 Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 59 32% 17 of 55 1 of 3 1 of 1 19 of 59 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 28 of 62 45% 12 of 37 6 of 15 10 of 10 27 of 61 1 of 1 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.

"andrea lee should win this fight she's better everywhere she's way more skilled"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.

Lee by second round TKO; inside the distance prop if value
"I really like her in this spot um you know obviously totally worth the minus 300 this line that she's currently at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with andrea lee getting the job done unanimous decision barely out striking roxanne motor fairy every round"
LOSS vs Lauren Murphy
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blaydes vs. Volkov · Jun 20, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Lauren Murphy 0 44 of 174 25% 71 of 206 0 of 1 0% 0 1 4:08
Roxanne Modafferi 0 72 of 158 45% 92 of 178 2 of 3 66% 0 0 0:53
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Lauren Murphy 0 12 of 54 22% 18 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:14
Roxanne Modafferi 0 19 of 48 39% 22 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Lauren Murphy 0 10 of 45 22% 20 of 58 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:44
Roxanne Modafferi 0 23 of 48 47% 36 of 61 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:35
3 Lauren Murphy 0 22 of 75 29% 33 of 88 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 30 of 62 48% 34 of 66 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:18
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Lauren Murphy 44 of 174 25% 34 of 152 5 of 15 5 of 7 39 of 163 5 of 11 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 72 of 158 45% 46 of 127 8 of 12 18 of 19 65 of 150 3 of 3 4 of 5
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Lauren Murphy 12 of 54 22% 9 of 46 1 of 5 2 of 3 11 of 51 1 of 3 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 48 39% 11 of 36 0 of 4 8 of 8 19 of 48 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Lauren Murphy 10 of 45 22% 8 of 37 2 of 7 0 of 1 9 of 41 1 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 23 of 48 47% 13 of 37 5 of 5 5 of 6 18 of 42 3 of 3 2 of 3
3 Lauren Murphy 22 of 75 29% 17 of 69 2 of 3 3 of 3 19 of 71 3 of 4 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 30 of 62 48% 22 of 54 3 of 3 5 of 5 28 of 60 0 of 0 2 of 2
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jun 17, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Big Brady favors Lauren Murphy to win by decision, believing she can stuff Roxanne Modafferi's takedowns and out-strike her on the feet. He notes Murphy's strong takedown defense and ability to get back up if taken down. He acknowledges Modafferi's recent wins as an underdog but thinks Murphy is the better striker and will land more shots.

odds: Modafferi minus 120, Murphy plus 100; pick by decision
"I do favor Murphy to win here I think she's going to be able to stuff the takedowns of Roxanne"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 18, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Lauren Murphy

Daniel Levi picks Lauren Murphy, arguing that Modafferi is one-dimensional and relies on takedowns. He believes Murphy's improved aggression and takedown defense will be key. Levi notes that Murphy looked great against Andrea Lee and should be a slight favorite, not an underdog. He expects a close decision win for Murphy.

"My pick will be Lauren Murphy in this spot as well."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 14, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

Modafferi has better grappling and a reach advantage. She was winning against Barber before the injury. Murphy hasn't shown much. Modafferi will win by decision.

"I'm gonna go over rocks and mowed a ferry here the odds are really close and I don't understand why... motor ferry gets it done by decision"
WIN vs Maycee Barber
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 246: McGregor vs. Cowboy · Jan 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 1 19 of 43 44% 112 of 155 1 of 1 100% 0 1 10:32
Maycee Barber 0 16 of 31 51% 25 of 45 0 of 0 --- 1 3 2:17
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 22 50% 47 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:45
Maycee Barber 0 5 of 14 35% 7 of 17 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:12
2 Roxanne Modafferi 1 5 of 10 50% 41 of 58 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:42
Maycee Barber 0 4 of 7 57% 6 of 12 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:07
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 3 of 11 27% 24 of 36 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:05
Maycee Barber 0 7 of 10 70% 12 of 16 0 of 0 --- 1 1 0:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 19 of 43 44% 17 of 41 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 31 1 of 1 7 of 11
Maycee Barber 16 of 31 51% 15 of 29 1 of 2 0 of 0 9 of 19 0 of 0 7 of 12
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 22 50% 9 of 20 2 of 2 0 of 0 7 of 18 1 of 1 3 of 3
Maycee Barber 5 of 14 35% 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0 5 of 14 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 5 of 10 50% 5 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 7
Maycee Barber 4 of 7 57% 3 of 6 1 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 4 of 7
3 Roxanne Modafferi 3 of 11 27% 3 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0 3 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 1
Maycee Barber 7 of 10 70% 7 of 9 0 of 1 0 of 0 4 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 5
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 16, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Daniel picks Maycee Barber to knock out Roxanne Modafferi in the first round. He praises Barber's punching power and her work at Rufus with Duke and GM3. He notes that Modafferi, despite her recent win over Shevchenko, was dominated by Jennifer Maia and is past her prime.

first round knockout
"I think Maisie Barbara is gonna go out there and knock out rocks and modifier in the first round."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 15, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The host picks Maycee Barber to win but expects a tough fight, noting that Roxanne Modafferi will survive for at least 7.5 minutes. He plans to bet the over 1.5 rounds rather than Barber's moneyline, as he believes Barber wins but the fight goes over.

Over 1.5 rounds bet planned.
"I'm picking Maisie Barbara to win there but I believe the bet is gonna be the over in that fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 6, 2020 (12 days before fight)
Roxanne Modafferi

The host initially picks Maycee Barber but then switches to Roxanne Modafferi, reasoning that Modafferi is bigger and stronger and will hold Barber against the cage for three rounds. He notes that in female fights, holding against the cage often works, and predicts Barber loses by decision.

decision
"I'm gonna pick Roxanne mo de ferran I think she's gonna hold Maisie Barbara against a cage for free rounds she's the bigger girl she's a stronger girl she's the more experienced Gil"
LOSS vs Jennifer Maia
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Edwards · Jul 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jennifer Maia 0 29 of 110 26% 76 of 161 0 of 9 0% 0 0 3:32
Roxanne Modafferi 0 83 of 174 47% 111 of 205 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:18
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jennifer Maia 0 6 of 23 26% 20 of 40 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:47
Roxanne Modafferi 0 13 of 35 37% 24 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:12
2 Jennifer Maia 0 14 of 36 38% 37 of 60 0 of 3 0% 0 0 1:10
Roxanne Modafferi 0 32 of 57 56% 36 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:07
3 Jennifer Maia 0 9 of 51 17% 19 of 61 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:35
Roxanne Modafferi 0 38 of 82 46% 51 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jennifer Maia 29 of 110 26% 25 of 100 1 of 5 3 of 5 28 of 109 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 83 of 174 47% 72 of 158 9 of 14 2 of 2 65 of 150 17 of 20 1 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jennifer Maia 6 of 23 26% 5 of 20 0 of 1 1 of 2 6 of 23 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 13 of 35 37% 11 of 33 2 of 2 0 of 0 8 of 29 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jennifer Maia 14 of 36 38% 12 of 33 0 of 1 2 of 2 14 of 36 0 of 0 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 32 of 57 56% 29 of 54 3 of 3 0 of 0 22 of 47 10 of 10 0 of 0
3 Jennifer Maia 9 of 51 17% 8 of 47 1 of 3 0 of 1 8 of 50 1 of 1 0 of 0
Roxanne Modafferi 38 of 82 46% 32 of 71 4 of 9 2 of 2 35 of 74 2 of 4 1 of 4
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Overeem vs. Oleinik · Apr 20, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Roxanne Modafferi 0 33 of 79 41% 105 of 162 5 of 6 83% 0 2 9:00
Antonina Shevchenko 0 64 of 116 55% 87 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Roxanne Modafferi 0 11 of 40 27% 30 of 63 2 of 2 100% 0 0 1:59
Antonina Shevchenko 0 26 of 46 56% 28 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Roxanne Modafferi 0 14 of 21 66% 44 of 56 1 of 2 50% 0 0 3:46
Antonina Shevchenko 0 17 of 34 50% 20 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Roxanne Modafferi 0 8 of 18 44% 31 of 43 2 of 2 100% 0 2 3:15
Antonina Shevchenko 0 21 of 36 58% 39 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Roxanne Modafferi 33 of 79 41% 29 of 73 3 of 5 1 of 1 18 of 60 3 of 4 12 of 15
Antonina Shevchenko 64 of 116 55% 50 of 101 12 of 13 2 of 2 49 of 98 10 of 11 5 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Roxanne Modafferi 11 of 40 27% 8 of 36 2 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 36 2 of 3 0 of 1
Antonina Shevchenko 26 of 46 56% 23 of 43 1 of 1 2 of 2 25 of 45 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Roxanne Modafferi 14 of 21 66% 14 of 20 0 of 1 0 of 0 7 of 14 1 of 1 6 of 6
Antonina Shevchenko 17 of 34 50% 15 of 32 2 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 26 3 of 3 3 of 5
3 Roxanne Modafferi 8 of 18 44% 7 of 17 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 10 0 of 0 6 of 8
Antonina Shevchenko 21 of 36 58% 12 of 26 9 of 10 0 of 0 13 of 27 6 of 7 2 of 2
Andrea Lee - Fight History
LOSS vs JJ Aldrich
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night 253 · Mar 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 53 of 175 30% 66 of 192 1 of 4 25% 1 0 0:46
JJ Aldrich 0 74 of 137 54% 77 of 142 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 18 of 57 31% 18 of 57 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 21 of 43 48% 23 of 45 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:19
2 Andrea Lee 0 15 of 58 25% 18 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
JJ Aldrich 0 25 of 46 54% 25 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:23
3 Andrea Lee 0 20 of 60 33% 30 of 74 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:46
JJ Aldrich 0 28 of 48 58% 29 of 50 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 53 of 175 30% 13 of 109 25 of 44 15 of 22 52 of 174 1 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 74 of 137 54% 54 of 114 10 of 13 10 of 10 68 of 130 5 of 6 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 18 of 57 31% 1 of 32 8 of 12 9 of 13 18 of 57 0 of 0 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 21 of 43 48% 14 of 34 2 of 4 5 of 5 18 of 39 2 of 3 1 of 1
2 Andrea Lee 15 of 58 25% 3 of 35 6 of 14 6 of 9 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 25 of 46 54% 17 of 37 4 of 5 4 of 4 25 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Andrea Lee 20 of 60 33% 9 of 42 11 of 18 0 of 0 19 of 59 1 of 1 0 of 0
JJ Aldrich 28 of 48 58% 23 of 43 4 of 4 1 of 1 25 of 45 3 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee despite her five-fight losing streak, arguing that she is still a good striker with quality losses and close decisions. He criticizes JJ Aldrich as inconsistent and lacking in wrestling and striking. He sees value in Lee at +163 odds but warns against betting on this fight due to the unpredictability of both fighters.

Value bet at +163; do not bet heavily
"Andrea Lee at plus 163 are decent odds like this is pretty good ODS there's some good value there and it might be worth a step"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Feb 24, 2025 (5 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

Big Brady picks JJ Aldrich but is hesitant. He acknowledges value on Andrea Lee at +170 but cannot pick her due to her five-fight losing streak and apparent decline. He notes Aldrich's takedown defense and striking should be enough, but expects a close split decision.

Aldrich by split decision
"I'm going to pick JJ Aldridge and I'm going to take Aldridge to win probably by a split decision"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Feb 26, 2025 (3 days before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The host leans with Aldrich, believing she can use her striking approach to nullify Lee's kickboxing and shut down any grappling attempts. He expects Aldrich's combination style to earn her a decision win.

"I have to lean with the Aldrich side as I believe that she can go out there and utilize her striking approach to nullify the kickboxing of Lee shut down the grappling that Lee might might look to initiate and …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Feb 28, 2025 (1 day before fight)
JJ Aldrich

The Guru picks JJ Aldrich over Andrea Lee. He reasons that Andrea Lee is on a five-fight losing streak and declining, while Aldrich is more well-rounded and can get takedowns. He recalls Aldrich's performance against Erin Blanchfield before getting caught in a guillotine. He predicts a split decision win for Aldrich.

"I'm gonna go with JJ Aldridge over Andrea Lee... she's a little bit more well-rounded than Andrea Lee and she'll probably be able to get a few takedowns in this fight."
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Cannonier vs. Imavov · Jun 08, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montana De La Rosa 0 75 of 152 49% 115 of 201 0 of 2 0% 0 2 2:08
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 180 38% 88 of 206 3 of 6 50% 1 0 2:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montana De La Rosa 0 27 of 50 54% 52 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:52
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 44 31% 17 of 49 1 of 2 50% 1 0 0:10
2 Montana De La Rosa 0 31 of 68 45% 36 of 73 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 33 of 81 40% 37 of 86 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Montana De La Rosa 0 17 of 34 50% 27 of 48 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:16
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 55 41% 34 of 71 2 of 3 66% 0 0 1:59
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montana De La Rosa 75 of 152 49% 37 of 109 29 of 31 9 of 12 58 of 129 13 of 16 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 70 of 180 38% 53 of 156 12 of 17 5 of 7 62 of 161 5 of 16 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montana De La Rosa 27 of 50 54% 16 of 38 10 of 10 1 of 2 12 of 31 11 of 12 4 of 7
Andrea Lee 14 of 44 31% 9 of 37 4 of 6 1 of 1 10 of 36 4 of 8 0 of 0
2 Montana De La Rosa 31 of 68 45% 14 of 49 11 of 12 6 of 7 30 of 65 1 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 33 of 81 40% 26 of 72 4 of 5 3 of 4 33 of 77 0 of 4 0 of 0
3 Montana De La Rosa 17 of 34 50% 7 of 22 8 of 9 2 of 3 16 of 33 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 55 41% 18 of 47 4 of 6 1 of 2 19 of 48 1 of 4 3 of 3
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, noting that Montana De La Rosa is a wrestler but didn't use her wrestling in her last fight against JJ Aldrich. He thinks if Montana doesn't commit to takedowns, Andrea will out-strike her. Andrea is a good striker with underrated skills, and her losses are to quality opponents. He is not confident Montana will wrestle, so he goes with Andrea.

"unless I was 100% positive that Montana Delarosa was all in on the wrestling I gotta go Andrea Lee"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Montana De La Rosa

Big Brady picks Montana De La Rosa with little confidence. He notes that Andrea Lee is on a four-fight losing streak and looks to be declining, while De La Rosa's striking has improved. He expects De La Rosa to get takedowns and control time. He says he is not betting on this fight and advises others to avoid it.

"I'm going to take De la Rosa with little to no confidence I'm not betting on this fight and God help you if you are betting on on this fight here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has poor ring IQ and does not commit to her wrestling. Lee has improved her takedown defense and has better striking volume. Cody expects Lee to sprawl and brawl, outpointing De La Rosa on the feet. He also likes Lee by decision at plus money.

Andrea Lee by decision
"I got Lee and then if you want to get a little spicy with it uh lee by decision she's not knocking out delar Roa she's not submitting delar Rosa so if she's going to win she's just going to …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel picks Lee as the better fighter despite both being on losing streaks. He notes Lee won their first fight and has faced tougher competition, but questions her motivation and slowing speed. He sees Montana as never assertive enough, so he expects Lee to win a split decision.

split decision
"I'll go Andrea Lee via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Jun 7, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

Jacob leans Andrea Lee, but with low confidence. He notes that both fighters are better than their records suggest. He worries that if Montana commits to wrestling, Andrea could be on her back for 15 minutes. However, he thinks Andrea is the better striker and can defend takedowns with footwork. He expects a close fight and goes with Andrea, but is not confident.

"I'm leaning Andrea Lee here I don't absolutely love it because if Montana does come in all in wrestling all of a sudden it's Andrew Lee laying on her back for 15 minutes"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jun 4, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee is a skilled striker with an active Jiu-Jitsu game, while De La Rosa relies on grappling but lacks striking. Lee should land strikes and stuff takedowns, and may even catch a submission off her back. However, Lee can be flaky if she gets demoralized. Leaning Lee by submission, but passing on betting due to line movement.

submission
"I'm going to Le Lee in this spot... I'm going to say Lee by submission she might throw something up and catch T Roa in it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that De La Rosa has not been dominant with her grappling recently. Lee has better striking and takedown defense. Paul expects Lee to win on volume and outpoint De La Rosa over three rounds.

"Lee Lee on on volume Montana Del la ro said for all of her faults she has always been incredibly durable so uh credit word credits do on that front"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jun 5, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The Guru picks Andrea Lee because she does damage well and is a more physical specimen with less wasted weight. He thinks her age (35) and lack of children give her anger and aggression, especially in the third round. He notes Montana De La Rosa has a decent grappling game but Lee did better on the feet against Macy Barber. He expects Lee to do better on the feet and win.

"I'll go with Andrea Lee I think she can Implement damage more she's a more physical specimen out of the two of them"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 298: Volkanovski vs. Topuria · Feb 17, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Miranda Maverick 0 36 of 102 35% 59 of 126 2 of 3 66% 1 0 0:42
Andrea Lee 0 66 of 136 48% 106 of 180 3 of 8 37% 0 0 3:05
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Miranda Maverick 0 12 of 31 38% 14 of 33 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:40
Andrea Lee 0 24 of 43 55% 31 of 51 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
2 Miranda Maverick 0 9 of 34 26% 14 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Andrea Lee 0 23 of 48 47% 47 of 74 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:32
3 Miranda Maverick 0 15 of 37 40% 31 of 54 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 19 of 45 42% 28 of 55 1 of 3 33% 0 0 1:13
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Miranda Maverick 36 of 102 35% 14 of 72 13 of 19 9 of 11 32 of 96 3 of 3 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 66 of 136 48% 28 of 89 16 of 25 22 of 22 60 of 128 6 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Miranda Maverick 12 of 31 38% 4 of 20 4 of 6 4 of 5 9 of 28 3 of 3 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 24 of 43 55% 9 of 25 5 of 8 10 of 10 23 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Miranda Maverick 9 of 34 26% 4 of 26 3 of 5 2 of 3 9 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 23 of 48 47% 11 of 34 4 of 6 8 of 8 21 of 46 2 of 2 0 of 0
3 Miranda Maverick 15 of 37 40% 6 of 26 6 of 8 3 of 3 14 of 34 0 of 0 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 19 of 45 42% 8 of 30 7 of 11 4 of 4 16 of 41 3 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Feb 11, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Angelo picks Miranda Maverick, citing her pressure, takedowns, and toughness. He notes that Andrea Lee has fought tougher competition but is on a three-fight skid. He cautions that the moneyline is juiced and recommends the over 2.5 rounds as a lock.

over 2.5 rounds
"I am going to pick Miranda Maverick here... I think the over two and a half in this fight is probably the lock of the card"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Big Brady picks Miranda Maverick to win, citing her youth (26 vs 35) and physical strength as key advantages. He notes Andrea Lee's poor takedown defense (54%) and history of being taken down by lesser wrestlers, expecting Maverick to get the fight to the mat and grind out a decision. He acknowledges Lee's underrated striking but believes Maverick's wrestling and control will be too much. He mentions the line is moving but says he's probably not betting this one.

Maverick by decision
"I do like Maverick here to win this fight... Maverick by decision is the pick"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, noting her high volume striking (100+ significant strikes) compared to Maverick's lower output. He questions Maverick's takedown effectiveness and believes Lee can win on the feet. He sees plus 170 as good value and picks Lee.

"Andrea Lee is the pick for me."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Daniel picks Miranda Maverick but expresses hesitation about the betting line. He notes that Andrea Lee is physically strong and that Maverick's striking is her weakest area. He worries that Lee's strength could cause problems, but ultimately believes Maverick's grappling advantage will prevail. He says he is staying away from the line.

"I'm on Maverick here but I'm probably this is probably a line I'm staying away from."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Daniel Vreeland passes on this fight, noting Andrea Lee's decline and Miranda Maverick's inconsistency. He considered taking the dog on Lee but decided against it given her recent performances.

"Pass for me also."
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Jeff picks Miranda Maverick, noting that Andrea Lee is on a three-fight skid and hasn't won since 2021. He believes Maverick is a younger, stronger fighter who can impose her will. He acknowledges Lee's physical strength but thinks Maverick's grappling and overall game will be too much. He is not betting the line, however, as he finds it unappealing.

"Maverick is is my pick here as well yeah you can't really put any any faith in Lee at this point in her career and she's going to have a big strong younger fighter on her case here."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 15, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

Maverick is younger, stronger, and will dominate in the clinch and on the ground. Lee may be the better technical striker but has a history of breaking under pressure. Maverick grinds out a decision win.

"I expect Maverick to be competitive in that realm but eventually drag this fight into the clinch position and to the ground where Maverick should be able to control it and suck the energy out of Lee"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 14, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, arguing that the line is inflated by Maverick's recent win over low-level competition. He notes Lee has fought tougher opponents and has better volume striking. He believes Maverick's wrestling is not as effective against higher-level grapplers, and Lee can outwork her on the feet. He sees Lee as a clear underdog value.

Lee by decision (suggested)
"it just has to be an auto bet on the underdog so I will take Andre Le to win by decision."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 13, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Miranda Maverick

The MMA Guru picks Miranda Maverick, citing her youth, improvement at Team Elevation, and full focus on MMA now that she's done with education. He notes Andrea Lee's frustration when taken down and lack of calmness on bottom. He believes Maverick's grappling will be key, though he acknowledges Lee's stronger strength of schedule and mentions he might advise betting on Lee if her odds become bigger underdog.

If more money comes in on Miranda Maverick and Andrea Lee becomes even bigger of an underdog, I might advise people to put some money on her.
"I think Miranda Maverick is the more improving fighter she's the younger fighter she's training at Team elevation... I think she'll be able to outgrapple Andrea Lee in this fight."
LOSS vs Natália Silva
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 292: Sterling vs. O'Malley · Aug 19, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Natália Silva 0 43 of 125 34% 43 of 125 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 70 of 174 40% 70 of 174 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Natália Silva 0 14 of 49 28% 14 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 26 of 62 41% 26 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Natália Silva 0 18 of 42 42% 18 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 22 of 50 44% 22 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Natália Silva 0 11 of 34 32% 11 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andrea Lee 0 22 of 62 35% 22 of 62 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Natália Silva 43 of 125 34% 12 of 74 11 of 23 20 of 28 43 of 125 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 70 of 174 40% 34 of 111 17 of 43 19 of 20 70 of 174 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Natália Silva 14 of 49 28% 4 of 29 3 of 7 7 of 13 14 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 26 of 62 41% 13 of 38 6 of 16 7 of 8 26 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Natália Silva 18 of 42 42% 5 of 24 6 of 10 7 of 8 18 of 42 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 22 of 50 44% 8 of 29 9 of 16 5 of 5 22 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Natália Silva 11 of 34 32% 3 of 21 2 of 6 6 of 7 11 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 22 of 62 35% 13 of 44 2 of 11 7 of 7 22 of 62 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Angelo is confident in Natália Silva, citing her well-rounded skills, power that carries into later rounds, and ability to turn fights into brawls. He notes that Andrea Lee is tough and technical but believes Silva is the better striker and grappler, and that Lee won't be able to take her down. He has Silva in a parlay and also suggests betting the under on Andrea Lee's takedown line.

Parlay with Andre Petroski at -133; under on Andrea Lee takedowns if line is high
"This should be a Natalia Silva play all day long... I am confident enough in Natalia Silva to have a one unit parlay."
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Aug 12, 2023 (7 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Big Brady leans toward Natália Silva despite the wide line, citing her power advantage and elite takedown defense. He notes Andrea Lee has good volume and underrated skills, but Silva lands harder shots and may mix in takedowns. He expects the fight to go the distance with Silva winning by decision, similar to Lee's fight with Mayra Bueno Silva.

fight goes to decision
"I think this fight could be a lot closer than this line does indicate... I do have to lean to the Natalia Silverside... I think this fight does Go the Distance"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Cody sees Silva as the complete package with good striking and fast hands, while Lee is slowing down and has a wonky training situation. He expects Silva to piece up Lee, but warns that women's MMA is unpredictable.

"I would think Natalie's still a big favorite women's MMA I would say don't do it I would take Natali Silva"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Aug 17, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Daniel Levi picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, citing her experience and savvy. He notes that Silva is small for the weight class and has shown weaknesses when taken down, as Lee's grappling is better than Silva's previous opponents. Levi thinks Lee can win via grappling and that the plus money is valuable. He also likes the plus 3.5 spread. However, he acknowledges Silva is the real deal and is not going heavy on the bet.

Lee plus 3.5 spread; Lee by submission or decision
"I like her not gonna go crazy on it because I know Silva's the real deal but I'm gonna have some money on Lee"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Aug 18, 2023 (1 day before fight)
Natália Silva

Lucrative James picks Natália Silva to win, citing her excellent distance management and takedown defense. He expects Silva to dictate the striking range and potentially get takedowns of her own, as Andrea Lee has historically lost when taken down and controlled on the ground. He sees the fight going to a decision with Silva edging it out 29-28 or 30-27.

"I do think she's gonna win I am picking Natalia silver to win"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Aug 15, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Natália Silva

Silva's movement and striking accuracy should be too much for Lee. She lands significant strikes from distance and has shown finishing ability. However, the moneyline is too wide given Lee's experience and potential grappling success. Prefer Silva by decision prop as a better value.

Silva by decision
"I lean Silva on this fight and I'm not too high on the chalky price tag... I would rather hone in on that Natalia Silva by decision line more than her actual money line"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Natália Silva

The MMA Guru confidently picks Natália Silva, calling her one of the rare good female MMA prospects. He highlights her stunning striking performances and dominant wins over Jasmine Jasudavicius and Tereza Bledá. He notes Andrea Lee has taken a lot of damage and is 34, while Silva is 26 and improving. He expects Silva to win by decision but thinks Lee will make it tough.

decision win 29-28
"I'm going with Natalia Silva getting this one done by decision win 29-28"
LOSS vs Maycee Barber
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Vera vs. Sandhagen · Mar 25, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Maycee Barber 0 39 of 103 37% 57 of 125 5 of 5 100% 0 0 5:20
Andrea Lee 0 48 of 127 37% 66 of 158 2 of 2 100% 0 1 0:45
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Maycee Barber 0 12 of 35 34% 16 of 39 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:06
Andrea Lee 0 17 of 45 37% 22 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:00
2 Maycee Barber 0 15 of 38 39% 26 of 52 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:54
Andrea Lee 0 17 of 43 39% 24 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:02
3 Maycee Barber 0 12 of 30 40% 15 of 34 3 of 3 100% 0 0 1:20
Andrea Lee 0 14 of 39 35% 20 of 46 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Maycee Barber 39 of 103 37% 10 of 57 15 of 27 14 of 19 34 of 97 4 of 5 1 of 1
Andrea Lee 48 of 127 37% 31 of 97 9 of 20 8 of 10 38 of 113 3 of 7 7 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Maycee Barber 12 of 35 34% 3 of 18 5 of 11 4 of 6 12 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 17 of 45 37% 11 of 35 2 of 6 4 of 4 11 of 38 1 of 2 5 of 5
2 Maycee Barber 15 of 38 39% 6 of 23 2 of 6 7 of 9 14 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Andrea Lee 17 of 43 39% 11 of 31 2 of 6 4 of 6 17 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
3 Maycee Barber 12 of 30 40% 1 of 16 8 of 10 3 of 4 8 of 25 3 of 4 1 of 1
Andrea Lee 14 of 39 35% 9 of 31 5 of 8 0 of 0 10 of 33 2 of 4 2 of 2
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee as an underdog, arguing that Barber is overrated and a decision fighter who can break mentally. He notes that Lee is a technical striker with improved grappling and has fought tougher competition. He believes Lee can keep the fight standing and out-strike Barber, and that Barber's takedowns may not be enough. He says no bet on this fight due to unknowns.

"I like Andrea Lee in this fight I do think she wins no bet here."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee as a dog, believing the fight will be closer than the odds indicate. He thinks Lee is the better striker with more volume, while Barber relies on physical strength and takedowns. Brady notes Barber's striking is still a work in progress and that Lee can work back to her feet if taken down. He predicts a split decision win for Lee, possibly a robbery, and expects the fight to go the distance.

Lee by split decision
"I'll go Lee here and lead by like a split decision maybe even like a robbery decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Cody does not make a clear pick for this fight. He discusses the matchup, noting Barber's youth and cardio advantage but also her lack of takedowns in recent fights. He sees a path for Lee if she can keep the fight standing and outstrike Barber, but he is wary of Lee's tendency to fatigue. He ultimately says he wants nothing to do with the line, finding it too wide.

"I want nothing to do with this line way too wide for my liking"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Connor picks Barber because Lee has a history of crumbling under pressure and bullying. He notes Barber's recent assertiveness and willingness to clinch and use her strength. He acknowledges Barber's poor kickboxing but thinks she will force a clinch-heavy fight where Lee fades.

Mentions odds: Lee opened +165, currently +213; Barber opened -190, currently -268. Notes line trending away from Lee.
"I think it's too much of a situation where Barber just rushes at her and puts her on the fence and starts landing elbows and just starts taking the fight away from her. Lee will fade out of it."
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Mar 22, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Jacob picks Barber but admits he is biased against Lee. He thinks Barber can get takedowns and wear Lee down, similar to how Viviane Araujo did. He warns that Barber is a decision fighter and should not be put in parlays. He acknowledges Lee is dangerous on the feet and that Barber's takedowns are key.

"I am going to pick Macy Barber because I just feel like I'm just way too biased to pick Andrew Lee."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The host believes Barber's strength and grappling improvements at Team Alpha Male will be key. He expects Barber to assert herself early, counter Lee's combinations, and eventually get clinch situations where she can rough Lee up against the cage. He notes that if Lee gets into a flow state it could be trouble, but Barber's power and explosiveness should deter her. He predicts Barber wins by decision.

"I'm going to go Macy Barber here feeling pretty good about it as well and I expect her to go out there and grind out Andrea Lee on route to a decision victory"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 20, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

The Guru picks Barber, citing her improved grappling and youth (24 vs 34). He thinks Barber can take Lee down and slow her down as the fight progresses, winning the last two rounds via decision. He notes Lee's tendency to fade when wrestled.

"I'm going with Macy Barber... I think if she does [get the takedown] we'll start to see Andrea Lee slow down"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 23, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Maycee Barber

Zane picks Barber but notes it could easily be a fight where Barber flops around and Lee jabs her. He highlights Barber's physicality and willingness to make opponents deal with her strength. He also notes Barber's reliable third-round surge if things aren't going well.

Mentions odds: Lee +213, Barber -268. Notes line swinging wide.
"The only thing Barbara has shown her recent fights is a willingness to just make people deal with her physicality. Yeah. Make them deal with her athleticism and her strength and just grab ahold of them and throw them around."
LOSS vs Viviane Araújo
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–27, 29–27) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blachowicz vs. Rakic · May 14, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Viviane Araújo 0 39 of 79 49% 96 of 160 3 of 5 60% 2 0 10:40
Andrea Lee 1 47 of 82 57% 64 of 103 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:48
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Viviane Araújo 0 18 of 34 52% 31 of 48 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:48
Andrea Lee 1 25 of 51 49% 29 of 55 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:26
2 Viviane Araújo 0 14 of 27 51% 48 of 83 0 of 0 --- 2 0 4:26
Andrea Lee 0 9 of 10 90% 13 of 14 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Viviane Araújo 0 7 of 18 38% 17 of 29 1 of 1 100% 0 0 3:26
Andrea Lee 0 13 of 21 61% 22 of 34 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Viviane Araújo 39 of 79 49% 25 of 63 9 of 11 5 of 5 32 of 66 0 of 0 7 of 13
Andrea Lee 47 of 82 57% 34 of 65 9 of 13 4 of 4 36 of 64 7 of 11 4 of 7
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Viviane Araújo 18 of 34 52% 11 of 26 5 of 6 2 of 2 17 of 31 0 of 0 1 of 3
Andrea Lee 25 of 51 49% 19 of 42 4 of 7 2 of 2 15 of 34 6 of 10 4 of 7
2 Viviane Araújo 14 of 27 51% 10 of 22 3 of 4 1 of 1 8 of 18 0 of 0 6 of 9
Andrea Lee 9 of 10 90% 5 of 6 3 of 3 1 of 1 9 of 10 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Viviane Araújo 7 of 18 38% 4 of 15 1 of 1 2 of 2 7 of 17 0 of 0 0 of 1
Andrea Lee 13 of 21 61% 10 of 17 2 of 3 1 of 1 12 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Andrea Lee, noting her improved takedown defense and cardio. He thinks Araújo has cardio issues and fades in the third round. He believes Lee will push the pace, tire Araújo out, and win by volume. He mentions Lee's training with Tony Kelley and her social media showing hard work.

"i think this lead thing is the same thing like physically lisa as strong as anybody the technique's just not quite there in the takedown defense she shorted up a little bit and she still stops more takedowns than she …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 11, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is cautious, warning that Araújo is more of a wrestler and Lee's takedown defense is her kryptonite. He says it could be a situation where Araújo takes Lee down and holds top control, making it risky. He advises not putting this on a top ticket.

"i would say cody just be careful don't put this all the way up but like ticket one ticket two because it could be a situation where arujo takes her down is able to hold top control"
TKO (corner stoppage) R2 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 47 of 154 30% 47 of 154 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 84 of 210 40% 85 of 211 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 25 of 87 28% 25 of 87 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:39
Cynthia Calvillo 0 43 of 116 37% 44 of 117 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 22 of 67 32% 22 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Cynthia Calvillo 0 41 of 94 43% 41 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 47 of 154 30% 18 of 99 21 of 46 8 of 9 47 of 154 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 84 of 210 40% 46 of 155 30 of 45 8 of 10 83 of 208 1 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 25 of 87 28% 11 of 62 10 of 20 4 of 5 25 of 87 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 43 of 116 37% 27 of 92 12 of 19 4 of 5 43 of 115 0 of 1 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 22 of 67 32% 7 of 37 11 of 26 4 of 4 22 of 67 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cynthia Calvillo 41 of 94 43% 19 of 63 18 of 26 4 of 5 40 of 93 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Angelo picks Andrea Lee, citing her polished striking and comfort on the feet. He notes that Calvillo looks uncomfortable striking and that Lee has improved grappling. Angelo has a moneyline bet on Lee at near even money and thinks she can control the striking exchanges.

moneyline bet at minus 105
"andrea leaves my pick and i do have a moneyline bet at her at minus 105 almost even money"
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Big Brady picks Cynthia Calvillo but is hesitant, noting Andrea Lee has superior striking volume and accuracy. However, he highlights Lee's poor takedown defense (57%) and that she has been taken down in every UFC fight except one. Brady believes Calvillo can win by wrestling, but recalls her fight against Chookagian where she didn't wrestle enough, causing doubt.

Calvillo by decision
"i will take alveo though and i will take alvey to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody has a gut feeling that Calvillo might lose. He notes that Lee has been working on her wrestling and that Calvillo is 1-2 at 125 lbs. He thinks if Lee can stuff takedowns, she can out-strike Calvillo. He calls it a 'dog or pass' and might take a small shot on Lee.

"i got a bad gut feeling that calvio's actually gonna end up losing this one"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Daniel Levi picks Cynthia Calvillo, citing her dominant ground game and ability to get takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee has been taken down multiple times by previous opponents (Roxanne Modafferi, Lauren Murphy, Joanne Calderwood) and believes Calvillo only needs one or two takedowns to win rounds or secure a finish. Levi acknowledges Lee's striking volume but thinks Calvillo's grappling will be the difference.

"give me cynthia calvio to come out here and and probably win the decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Jacob picks Cynthia Calvillo, believing she will dominate on the ground. He thinks Calvillo will get in the pocket, take Lee down, and control the fight. Jacob is a big Calvillo fan and thinks the UFC gave her a winnable matchup after her loss to Andrade.

"i think she absolutely dominates this fight i i'm a big cynthia fan"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Cynthia Calvillo

Paul believes Calvillo has a massive wrestling advantage and should spam takedowns. He notes that Andrea Lee gives up takedowns to everyone. He thinks Calvillo can control the fight on the ground and win a decision.

"i think calvio is the side here"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Cynthia Calvillo

The Guru picks Cynthia Calvillo by unanimous decision (29-27). He expects Andrea Lee to win the first round on the feet, but Calvillo's takedowns and ground control in rounds two and three will secure the win. Calvillo will get a 10-8 in the third due to dominant ground and pound.

unanimous decision 29-27
"i'm going to be going with cynthia calvillo here and i'm going to be picking her by unanimous decision"
Submission (triangle armbar) R2 4:52 · UFC 262: Oliveira vs. Chandler · May 15, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Andrea Lee 0 45 of 62 72% 88 of 108 3 of 3 100% 3 0 2:11
Antonina Shevchenko 0 23 of 41 56% 36 of 54 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Andrea Lee 0 28 of 44 63% 43 of 61 1 of 1 100% 0 0 1:31
Antonina Shevchenko 0 22 of 39 56% 34 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Andrea Lee 0 17 of 18 94% 45 of 47 2 of 2 100% 3 0 0:40
Antonina Shevchenko 0 1 of 2 50% 2 of 3 0 of 0 --- 0 0 3:58
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Andrea Lee 45 of 62 72% 32 of 43 11 of 15 2 of 4 19 of 35 6 of 6 20 of 21
Antonina Shevchenko 23 of 41 56% 13 of 30 8 of 9 2 of 2 15 of 32 8 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Andrea Lee 28 of 44 63% 15 of 25 11 of 15 2 of 4 18 of 34 6 of 6 4 of 4
Antonina Shevchenko 22 of 39 56% 13 of 29 8 of 9 1 of 1 14 of 30 8 of 9 0 of 0
2 Andrea Lee 17 of 18 94% 17 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 16 of 17
Antonina Shevchenko 1 of 2 50% 0 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 11, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Lee throws high volume (5.58 strikes/min) and has good striking defense. Shevchenko has poor takedown defense and has been taken down by strikers. Lee can mix in takedowns and control the fight. The line has shifted heavily towards Lee, and I think she wins a decision as a slight underdog.

"I'm gonna side with andrea lee here to get it done as a dog but i really don't think she's going to be a dog for soon here but i'll take andrew lee by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Cody picks Lee, arguing that Shevchenko has no power and Lee's volume will be decisive. He notes that Lee's takedown defense is her weakness, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler. Cody believes Lee will win by decision, using her striking output.

Monkey Knife Fight: double over on significant strikes (59.5 for Lee, 35.5 for Shevchenko).
"i would agree with your assessment pretty much on all points and go with andrea lee here andrew lee by decision more specifically"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

Daniel Levi picks Antonina Shevchenko, citing Andrea Lee's cardio issues and decline since her breakup. He notes that Lee gasses out and becomes flat-footed, while Shevchenko is more disciplined and can clinch and knee. Levi thinks Shevchenko will dominate in the clinch and win a 30-27 decision. He also mentions Shevchenko's improved ground game.

"i'm going with antonina via 30-27"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked May 13, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The host picks Shevchenko, giving her the slight advantage in striking. He notes she is the better technical striker and taller, which should help maintain distance. He acknowledges concerns about her grappling defense but thinks Lee is unlikely to implement a wrestling game plan. He predicts a decision win for Shevchenko but says he is not lock confident.

Shevchenko by decision
"i will go with chevchenko to win this fight by decision but by no means am i like lock the knight confident on it"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked May 12, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Paul picks Lee, noting that Shevchenko is not her sister and lacks power. He believes Lee's volume and takedown defense will be key, though he is not confident. Paul mentions that Lee has been losing due to takedowns, but Shevchenko is not a wrestler.

"i'll pick andrea lee i don't feel great about it though"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked May 9, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Antonina Shevchenko

The MMA Guru picks Antonina Shevchenko, but with low confidence, admitting he flipped a coin. He thinks Shevchenko is slightly more technical on the feet and benefits from training with her sister Valentina. He acknowledges Andrea Lee has a grappling advantage but predicts a split decision 29-28 for Shevchenko.

"i'm going with antonina chefchenko"
Expert Picks (3)
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 10, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

Big Brady picks Andrea Lee, stating she is better everywhere and more skilled. He notes that Modafferi's path to victory is takedowns, but Lee has decent ground game and get-up ability. He finds it sketchy due to women's MMA and Lee's 61% takedown defense, but expects Lee to win by decision.

"andrea lee should win this fight she's better everywhere she's way more skilled"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 11, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Andrea Lee

The host is confident Lee's superior striking and movement will be too much for Modafferi, who is rudimentary on the feet and relies on takedowns. He notes Lee has good jiu-jitsu to defend submissions and expects her to win by decision or possibly a late TKO. He considers Lee one of his strongest leans on the card and worth the -310 price.

Lee by second round TKO; inside the distance prop if value
"I really like her in this spot um you know obviously totally worth the minus 300 this line that she's currently at"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 7, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Andrea Lee

The MMA Guru picks Andrea Lee, being very critical of Roxanne Modafferi's skills, calling her 'terrible' and saying she doesn't look like she trains MMA. He notes that Lee outstruck Lauren Murphy in her last fight and should have won, while Murphy clearly beat Modafferi. He expects Lee to stuff takedowns and out-strike Modafferi to a unanimous decision.

"i'm going to go with andrea lee getting the job done unanimous decision barely out striking roxanne motor fairy every round"