Career Averages - Ottman Azaitar
Career Averages - Khama Worthy
Ottman Azaitar - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 1 | 19 of 50 | 38% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 56 | 28% | 20 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 0 | 11 of 31 | 35% | 11 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 37 | 27% | 14 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 1 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 6 of 19 | 31% | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michael Johnson | 19 of 50 | 38% | 13 of 37 | 3 of 8 | 3 of 5 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 56 | 28% | 8 of 39 | 7 of 12 | 1 of 5 | 15 of 55 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Michael Johnson | 11 of 31 | 35% | 6 of 21 | 3 of 6 | 2 of 4 | 10 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 37 | 27% | 5 of 25 | 5 of 9 | 0 of 3 | 9 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Michael Johnson | 8 of 19 | 42% | 7 of 16 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 6 of 19 | 31% | 3 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Johnson as the better fighter everywhere except raw power. He notes Johnson's experience, footwork, takedown defense, and positive striking differential against elite competition. He acknowledges Johnson's age and chin vulnerability, but believes Azaitar's poor cardio and reliance on a one-punch KO make Johnson the safer pick. He warns that Johnson can be knocked out, so caution is advised.
Big Brady picks Michael Johnson to win by first-round knockout, but is very hesitant. He notes Johnson is extremely inconsistent and often loses fights he should win. He thinks Johnson is much better than Azaitar but warns to tread lightly. He is not confident in betting this fight.
Cody picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience, cardio, and grappling advantage. He notes Azaitar's inactivity and questionable durability since the 'potato bag' incident. Cody believes Johnson can outwork Azaitar and potentially use wrestling if needed.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Johnson is a natural counter-puncher and that Azaitar's game is not built for MMA success at this level. He points out that Azaitar's wins are over chinny or flawed opponents and that he doesn't seem to care about winning fights, only maintaining an image.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ottman Azaitar for the upset, citing Michael Johnson's extreme unpredictability. He notes Johnson has a history of losing fights he should win, and despite being more well-rounded and faster, Johnson often underperforms. Vreeland says he never bets on Johnson and expects Azaitar to take advantage.
Johnson's fight IQ mistakes often come back to haunt him, and against heavy-handed Azaitar, he is expected to get caught. Azaitar should crash the pocket consistently and find a knockout victory within the first round and a half.
Paul picks Michael Johnson, citing his experience and power. He expects a bonus-hunting fight and likes the under. Paul notes that Azaitar is a kill-or-be-killed type, but Johnson's durability and skill should prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Michael Johnson, citing his superior hand speed and technique compared to Ottman Azaitar, who he describes as slow and hook-heavy. He notes Johnson's recent win and his competitive performance against Carlos Diego Ferreira before being knocked out. He believes Johnson will land consistently and finish Azaitar in round two via TKO. He also dismisses Azaitar's past wins as unimpressive and notes his two-fight losing streak.
Zane picks Michael Johnson, arguing that Johnson remains a fast, functional striker with a good counter-punching game and has built layers of defense over his career. He notes that Azaitar is a brawling puncher who has not fought with hunger in years, living a luxurious lifestyle as an advisor to the King of Morocco, and that Johnson simply does not lose to strikers of Azaitar's level.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 0 | 14 of 33 | 42% | 16 of 36 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 38 of 57 | 66% | 42 of 61 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:49 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francisco Prado | 14 of 33 | 42% | 6 of 20 | 7 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 28 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 38 of 57 | 66% | 31 of 46 | 2 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 17 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 20 of 26 |
Angelo picks Francisco Prado, citing more tools in his bag and the fact that he wasn't knocked out eight months ago like Azaitar. He notes both are powerful strikers who will go at it recklessly. He recommends betting on the fight not going the distance, even if juiced at -350, as a parlay piece. He thinks Azaitar looked terrible in his last fight after a two-year layoff.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar with little confidence, expecting a knockout. He notes Prado has a 100% finish rate but questionable striking defense, blocking punches with his face. Azaitar has power and can knock anyone out. He thinks someone gets knocked out, and he picks Azaitar to land a clean shot on Prado's 'massive head' and put him out in the first round.
Cody leans toward Azaitar at plus money, citing his better level of competition and knockout power. He thinks Azaitar's power in both hands is a threat and that Prado's cardio is unknown. He acknowledges Prado could take over if it goes past the first round, but prefers Azaitar as the pre-fight play at +100. He also considers a live bet on Prado if he survives the first round.
The host is surprised Azaitar is the underdog, citing his experience and knockout power. He thinks Prado is not ready for Azaitar's explosivity, having faced lower-level competition. He picks Azaitar by knockout, noting the under 1.5 rounds prop is also a good play.
Paul picks Prado, citing youth and improvement. He thinks Prado's takedown defense is dreadful but his striking is solid and he hits hard. He expects Prado to have the chin to endure an early war and take over if it goes past the first round. He notes Azaitar is stiff and rigid in striking, and Prado's performance against Malarkey on short notice was promising.
The MMA Guru picks Francisco Prado over Ottman Azaitar, highlighting Prado's early-round finishing ability, hand speed, and durability after a competitive loss to Jamie Mullarkey. He questions Azaitar's confidence after a KO loss and notes his age (33). He predicts Prado wins by first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 1 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 1 | 11 of 27 | 40% | 12 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 10 of 22 | 45% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Matt Frevola | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matt Frevola | 11 of 27 | 40% | 10 of 24 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 7 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 |
| Ottman Azaitar | 10 of 22 | 45% | 6 of 17 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Azaitar (-115), Frevola (-105)
Round 1
Azaitar returns to active competition for the first time since September 2020, and he looks to extended his UFC winning streak to three after back-to-back first-round finishes. Frevola, a New York native and Dana White’s Contender Series alum, is coming off a first-round TKO triumph himself. Dan Miragliotta will get his first reffing assignment of the night for this lightweight affair. Frevola comes out with big movements, missing a high kick and a spinning kick. Azaitar circles on the outside and lands a jab. Frevola answers with a body kick. Frevola moves in and lands a one-two. Azaitar backs his foe up with a front kick. A right from Azaitar backs up Frevola. He follows that with a nice front kick down the middle. A counter right lands for Frevola in an exchange, but Azaitar makes Frevola stubmle with a short left hook. Frevola snaps his foe’s head back with a jab. Azaitar looks to go on the attack as he backs Frevola into the fence with a punching combination.
That proves to be a costly decision, as Frevola lands two short rights in close quarters before putting out Azaitar’s lights with a clean left hook.
Frevola lands a couple standing-to-ground punches before Miragliotta dives in to save an unconscious Azaitar.
The Official Result
Matt Frevola def. Ottman Azaitar via KO (Punch) R1 2:30
Angelo notes that Azaitar is a powerful striker who thrives in chaos, while Frevola is a tough wrestler who charges forward. He is concerned about Azaitar's two-year layoff but assumes he is prepared. He picks Azaitar and plans to bet on Azaitar inside the distance if the odds are favorable, because he believes if Azaitar wins it will be by stoppage, while Frevola's path is a decision.
Big Brady picks Ottman Azaitar to win by first-round knockout. He believes Frevola will choose to stand and bang, which plays into Azaitar's power. He notes Azaitar hits harder than anyone Frevola has faced, and that Frevola has been knocked out before (by Terrence McKinney in 7 seconds) and dropped multiple times. He acknowledges Azaitar's inactivity and takedown defense concerns, but trusts his power. He says if Frevola wrestles he could win, but he doesn't trust him to do so.
Cody picks Azaitar, citing his legitimate power and the fact that Frevola has durability issues, having been knocked out by Marco Polo Reyes and dropped by Lando Vannata. He notes that Azaitar has been on a long layoff but was given a favorable matchup. Cody thinks Azaitar will land a big shot and finish Frevola in the first or second round.
Connor picks Azaitar, noting that Frevola has been knocked out early by powerful punchers like Polo Reyes and Terrence McKinney. He points out that Azaitar is an accurate and aggressive finisher who comes out of the gate on point. Connor acknowledges that if the fight goes past the first round, Frevola's versatility gives him an edge, but he trusts Azaitar's early power.
Daniel Levi picks Ottman Azaitar, believing he will knock out Frevola early. He notes that Frevola has a suspect chin and has been dropped in multiple fights, while Azaitar has knockout power. However, he warns that if Azaitar doesn't finish early, Frevola's pace and heart could take over in later rounds. Levi sees this as a pick'em and is leaning toward Azaitar's finishing ability.
The host expects violence and an early finish, likely by Azaitar via KO in round 1. He notes Azaitar's 12 finishes in 13 wins and Frevola's fragility. However, he also sees a path for Frevola via submission if he survives the early onslaught. The best bet is the under 2.5 rounds to cover both scenarios. Official prediction is Azaitar by KO round 1.
Paul is torn but leans towards Azaitar getting the finish, though he is more drawn to the under 1.5 rounds prop. He notes that Azaitar hits very hard and Frevola has been knocked out before, but he is unsure about Azaitar's grappling if taken down. Paul thinks the fight will end early, likely by Azaitar KO, but he prefers the under prop.
The MMA Guru picks Ottman Azaitar, surprised he is an underdog. He notes Frevola's vulnerability in the pocket and Azaitar's power, predicting a KO in the second round. He acknowledges Azaitar's long layoff and past grappling issues but believes Frevola isn't explosive enough to exploit them.
Zane picks Azaitar, comparing him to Abdul Razak Alhassan in terms of early explosiveness and accuracy. He notes that Frevola has been slept by similar fighters and that Azaitar's left hook is a real threat. Zane also mentions that Frevola's durability is questionable, and Azaitar follows up on damage well.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 22 | 72% | 12 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 22 | 72% | 12 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khama Worthy, noting that Worthy has rejuvenated his career since moving up to 155 lbs and has a touch of death. He acknowledges that Azaitar hits extremely hard and has been rocked in fights, but Worthy's length and reach advantage could be key. He is not betting this fight but is looking at the under.
The host is not a Worthy believer and thinks Azaitar's power and activity in the first round can draw out Worthy's counters and land his own. He likes Azaitar by first-round KO and mentions the prop at +350. However, he is skeptical about betting Azaitar at plus money and would prefer a better price.
The MMA Guru picks Khama Worthy, noting that Ottman Azaitar has been fed hand-picked opponents and has a criminal past but hasn't faced someone with Worthy's experience. He believes Worthy's patience and experience against tough competition will allow him to survive Azaitar's early onslaught, then slow the fight down and eventually get a third-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Teemu Packalén | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 1 | 27 of 53 | 50% | 27 of 53 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 |
| Teemu Packalén | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 27 of 53 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 |
| Teemu Packalén | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 27 of 53 | 50% | 22 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 40 | 8 of 11 | 1 of 2 |
| Teemu Packalén | 8 of 19 | 42% | 3 of 12 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 13 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Khama Worthy - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 0 | 11 of 21 | 52% | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 | 24 of 46 | 52% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jai Herbert | 11 of 21 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khama Worthy | 24 of 46 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jai Herbert | 11 of 21 | 52% | 5 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Khama Worthy | 24 of 46 | 52% | 21 of 40 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 5 | 19 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 5 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Hold on to your hats, because a lightweight banger is on deck when “The Deathstar” Worthy (16-8, 2-2 UFC) seeks to become the ultimate power in the universe at the expense of “The Black Country Banger” Herbert (10-3, 0-2 UFC). Fists and feet are sure to fly, and referee Chris Tognoni may need to keep his head on a swivel from the exchanges that follow the glove touch. Worthy is jittery as he starts off the round, with his hands shaking back and forth as he tries to counter Herbert. With both preparing to counter the other, very little happens the first 30 seconds of the match. Worthy steps in with a punch to the body, and he blocks an overhand right that comes at him. The Brit fires off a body kick, and he steps out of the way from a prodding jab. Herbert slings a high kick that is blocked in time, and he chambers a body kick that collides loudly to the midsection. Worthy walks through a punch to try to land a heavy front kick, but he settles for a slapping leg kick instead. Worthy sneaks a right hand around the guard, and thumps a low calf kick to follow. As Herbert tries to pay him back, a low kick of his own gets checked. “The Deathstar” blasts Herbert with a heavy leg kick that makes Herbert do a little spin, but he gathers himself to start slinging leather. Herbert catches Worthy as he starts to unload with a brutal punching combination and a head kick in the middle. A right hand wobbles Worthy, and the continuous strikes of Herbert appear to have found the thermal exhaust port of his opponent, detonating one by one as Worthy’s legs betray him. The onslaught continues, and a left hook puts Worthy face-down down on the mat. As Worthy rolls to his side, barely grasping on to his consciousness, “The Black Country Banger” continues to bang with ferocious punches from on high. As Tognoni notices that Worthy may be out, he intervenes to stop the fight and award Herbert with his first UFC win in three tries.
The Official Result
Jai Herbert def. Khama Worthy R1 2:47 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo calls this a razor-thin pick. He notes that Khama has power and a good counter-striking game, while Jai is technical but gets hit a lot (1.3 strikes landed vs 2.66 absorbed). He thinks the odds are wide due to recency bias from Khama's knockout losses. He's not confident and won't bet the round line, but he likes Khama by a hair.
Big Brady picks Herbert as the younger, more talented fighter with height and reach advantages. He notes both fighters have poor striking defense and chins, but believes Worthy's chin is shot after seven knockout losses. He predicts a first-round knockout by Herbert, though acknowledges Worthy's power makes him live.
Cody picks Jai Herbert by knockout, citing Herbert's reach advantage and Worthy's notorious inability to take a punch. He notes that Worthy has been knocked out in seven of his eight losses, often in the first minute. Cody believes Herbert will find his range and land a straight right to knock Worthy out. He expects the fight to end inside one and a half rounds.
Lock picks Herbert based on technical striking. He notes Herbert is the better boxer and should be able to outpoint Worthy. He expects Herbert to finish later in the fight as Worthy fades. He likes Herbert inside the distance.
Paul leans towards Jai Herbert, noting his reach advantage and better cardio. He expects a high-variance fight where someone gets knocked out, and he believes it will be Worthy. However, Paul acknowledges that Herbert's chin is questionable and that he could get knocked out as well. He sees this as a firefight.
The MMA Guru picks Jai Herbert, citing Khama Worthy's recent KO losses and questionable chin. He notes Herbert's reach advantage, first-round KO power, and better competition faced. He believes Herbert's cardio and striking will be too much for Worthy, predicting a first-round KO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 1 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 5 of 10 | 50% | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jamie Mullarkey | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khama Worthy | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jamie Mullarkey | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 |
| Khama Worthy | 5 of 10 | 50% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 5 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khama Worthy to win by third-round knockout. He notes that Mullarkey is very hittable (4.60 significant strikes absorbed per minute) and has poor striking defense. He believes Worthy's power will be too much, especially as Mullarkey slows down from his wrestling-heavy approach. He also mentions that Mullarkey's takedowns may not be effective as Worthy is dangerous off his back and can reverse position.
Cody leans towards Worthy, noting his tremendous power and that he is a live dog in any spot. He worries about Worthy's durability, as he has been knocked out six times, but thinks Mullarkey doesn't have the knockout power to exploit that. He believes Mullarkey will need to wrestle, but Worthy's grappling is okay and his takedown defense is decent. He calls it a 50/50 fight.
Daniel Levi picks Khama Worthy to win, likely by decision, but expresses hesitation due to Worthy's questionable chin. He notes that Mullarkey has knockout power and a lot of heart, and could catch Worthy. However, Levi believes Worthy is the more physical and well-rounded fighter, and if he stays conscious, he should win. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation.
The host leans toward Jamie Mullarkey as a plus-money underdog. He notes Mullarkey's well-rounded game, durability, and ability to mix strikes with takedowns, as seen in the Riddell fight. He believes Mullarkey can close the distance, grind Worthy against the cage, and win a decision. He acknowledges Worthy's power and counter-striking but thinks his takedown defense and cardio are weaknesses that Mullarkey can exploit.
Paul also leans towards Worthy, calling it a dogger pass. He notes that Mullarkey got hit a lot in his previous fights and that Worthy has power to capitalize. He thinks the fight is close and that the line has moved, making Worthy a slight lean. He is not confident and may flip-flop.
The Guru picks Khama Worthy by split decision or 29-28, citing Worthy's cleaner technique and better cardio. He notes Worthy has fought tougher competition and has third-round finishes, while Mullarkey fades in later rounds. He expects a close, scrappy fight with Mullarkey possibly winning the first round on the ground, but Worthy pulling ahead in the second and third. He criticizes Mullarkey's sloppiness and cardio issues seen in previous fights.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 0 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 1 of 9 | 11% | 1 of 9 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 22 | 72% | 12 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ottman Azaitar | 16 of 22 | 72% | 12 of 18 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 10 | 7 of 7 |
| Khama Worthy | 1 of 9 | 11% | 0 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 8 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Khama Worthy, noting that Worthy has rejuvenated his career since moving up to 155 lbs and has a touch of death. He acknowledges that Azaitar hits extremely hard and has been rocked in fights, but Worthy's length and reach advantage could be key. He is not betting this fight but is looking at the under.
The host is not a Worthy believer and thinks Azaitar's power and activity in the first round can draw out Worthy's counters and land his own. He likes Azaitar by first-round KO and mentions the prop at +350. However, he is skeptical about betting Azaitar at plus money and would prefer a better price.
The MMA Guru picks Khama Worthy, noting that Ottman Azaitar has been fed hand-picked opponents and has a criminal past but hasn't faced someone with Worthy's experience. He believes Worthy's patience and experience against tough competition will allow him to survive Azaitar's early onslaught, then slow the fight down and eventually get a third-round submission.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 38 of 77 | 49% | 40 of 79 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 | 0 | 4:13 |
| Luis Peña | 0 | 55 of 101 | 54% | 66 of 114 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 2 | 0:46 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khama Worthy | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Luis Peña | 0 | 32 of 60 | 53% | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | Khama Worthy | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 11 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 3 | 0 | 3:52 |
| Luis Peña | 0 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 16 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 2 | 0:32 | |
| 3 | Khama Worthy | 0 | 13 of 31 | 41% | 13 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Luis Peña | 0 | 18 of 34 | 52% | 18 of 34 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:05 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khama Worthy | 38 of 77 | 49% | 25 of 61 | 6 of 8 | 7 of 8 | 33 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Luis Peña | 55 of 101 | 54% | 20 of 61 | 18 of 22 | 17 of 18 | 51 of 96 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khama Worthy | 16 of 31 | 51% | 8 of 21 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Peña | 32 of 60 | 53% | 7 of 31 | 12 of 16 | 13 of 13 | 32 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Khama Worthy | 9 of 15 | 60% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 |
| Luis Peña | 5 of 7 | 71% | 3 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Khama Worthy | 13 of 31 | 41% | 9 of 26 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 13 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Luis Peña | 18 of 34 | 52% | 10 of 25 | 5 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 30 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
Big Brady picks Luis Peña confidently, stating he is the better fighter in every category except power. He notes Peña's durability, striking, and submission game, and thinks Peña can take Worthy down and submit him. He believes the line should be wider and sees value at -270. He predicts a first-round submission.
Daniel Levi leans with Luis Peña, citing Peña's length, volume striking, and well-rounded skills. He notes that Peña has more answers stylistically, though he still has questions about Worthy's grappling and chin. Levi thinks Peña's training at ATT and wider array of techniques will lead to a close decision win. He acknowledges Worthy's power and experience but believes Peña's volume and durability will be the difference.
The MMA Guru picks Luis Peña, believing he will enforce his game plan and not stand and trade with Khama Worthy. He notes Peña's wins over Steve Garcia Jr., Matt Wiman, and Steven Peterson, and predicts Peña will take the back and dominate for a 30-27 unanimous decision. He acknowledges Worthy as a live dog but is not willing to bet on him, though he hints at a small parlay hedge.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khama Worthy | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khama Worthy | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Devonte Smith | 1 | 21 of 51 | 41% | 21 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Khama Worthy | 15 of 27 | 55% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 16 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Khama Worthy | 15 of 27 | 55% | 3 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 10 of 11 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Devonte Smith | 21 of 51 | 41% | 9 of 30 | 2 of 5 | 10 of 16 | 18 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 |
Expert Picks (3)
Big Brady picks Khama Worthy, noting that Worthy has rejuvenated his career since moving up to 155 lbs and has a touch of death. He acknowledges that Azaitar hits extremely hard and has been rocked in fights, but Worthy's length and reach advantage could be key. He is not betting this fight but is looking at the under.
The host is not a Worthy believer and thinks Azaitar's power and activity in the first round can draw out Worthy's counters and land his own. He likes Azaitar by first-round KO and mentions the prop at +350. However, he is skeptical about betting Azaitar at plus money and would prefer a better price.
The MMA Guru picks Khama Worthy, noting that Ottman Azaitar has been fed hand-picked opponents and has a criminal past but hasn't faced someone with Worthy's experience. He believes Worthy's patience and experience against tough competition will allow him to survive Azaitar's early onslaught, then slow the fight down and eventually get a third-round submission.
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