Career Averages - Alexander Volkov
Career Averages - Alexandr Romanov
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Alexander Volkov
Alexandr Romanov
Alexander Volkov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 88 of 143 | 61% | 88 of 143 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 54 of 130 | 41% | 54 of 130 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 33 of 44 | 75% | 33 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 34 of 56 | 60% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 22 of 47 | 46% | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 0 | 17 of 50 | 34% | 17 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 88 of 143 | 61% | 22 of 70 | 23 of 29 | 43 of 44 | 88 of 143 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 54 of 130 | 41% | 30 of 91 | 6 of 13 | 18 of 26 | 53 of 129 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 33 of 44 | 75% | 4 of 14 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 22 | 33 of 44 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 15 of 33 | 45% | 7 of 21 | 2 of 4 | 6 of 8 | 15 of 33 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 34 of 56 | 60% | 13 of 31 | 7 of 11 | 14 of 14 | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 22 of 47 | 46% | 8 of 29 | 3 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 22 of 47 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 21 of 43 | 48% | 5 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 8 of 8 | 21 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 17 of 50 | 34% | 15 of 41 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 6 | 16 of 49 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-180), Cortes-Acosta (+150)
Round 1
Although the UFC’s heavyweight title picture is in flux with Tom Aspinall still recovering, Jon Jones suggesting that Elvis has left the building and Ciryl Gane battling Alex Pereira for the interim strap, this next one might end up serving as a de facto eliminator match. Volkov (39-11, 13-5 UFC) may have questionably come up on the wrong end of the scorecards in his rematch with Gane, and a win could propel him back to gold. Standing in his way will be surging former pitcher Cortes-Acosta (17-2, 10-2 UFC), who has won three straight. Referee Mike Beltran will take charge of the big men, standing back as they lumber towards one another without a glove touch in sight.
Volkov starts off with kicks to the lead leg and body. He alternates them while Cortes-Acosta tries to get a read on his way in. Volkov keeps pecking away with these distance-keeping kicks, and he takes a flush jab on the nose. Cortes-Acosta whiffs on a right hand follow-up, but his low kick scores with an audible thud. Cortes-Acosta chases after the Russian, coiling back his right hand to attack. Volkov keeps to his preferred range, bringing up a foot just short of the face and going right back to the front leg. Volkov lands a low kick, and Cortes-Acosta charges him behind four punches that largely careen off the raised guard. Cortes-Acosta again tries to swarm, but Volkov slips and clips him with a left hook while escaping.
Volkov peppers the midsection with his foot as fans chant his name, and he is in range for just one punch before strafing to the side. Volkov beats on the lead leg a few more times, doing so until Cortes-Acosta leans down to try to catch it. Cortes-Acosta does not get the leg, so he wings power punches that miss the mark. Volkov slams his shin in the body, and he is met with a jab and sees the overhand coming at him. Volkov pushes off the belly and spins away before absorbing anything of merit. Cortes-Acosta blitzes him and lands a left hand flush, and Volkov splits off and continues his decimation of the front leg. Volkov’s one-two misses, and Cortes-Acosta rallies with his own jab. Cortes-Acosta digs a left hand to the side, and his overhand right misses while Volkov is resetting. Volkov lands a few more kicks as the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
The heavyweights do not break their gaze when leaving their corners, and Volkov picks up where he left off with a slapping body kick. Cortes-Acosta smacks his side to draw more on, and he wings a right hand that buzzes the tower. Volkov ducks a monster punch to clinch up, and Cortes-Acosta lashes out with an elbow that is an inch away from doing damage. Volkov works the inside of the front leg, and he stays planted too long and is clubbed with a right hand. Volkov circles off and plants a front kick on the stomach and another to the front leg. Volkov offers a high kick up and dances away from the counters he knows are coming, and he does not slow on working the front leg with his kicks. Cortes-Acosta kicks him back a few times, but the impact of the swings differs significantly. Volkov lances Cortes-Acosta with a one-two, moving to the side as he is more intent on breaking his foe down than outright knocking him flat.
The low kicks are starting to have an impact, with Cortes-Acosta tripping up on his way in. Cortes-Acosta lobs a bomb of a right hand, and Volkov shifts to the side. Cortes-Acosta points to the ground to try to initiate a brawl, angrily shouting at his opponent. Volkov welcomes this by blasting Cortes-Acosta in the face with a left hand that staggers him. Cortes-Acosta backs off and tries to lure his foe in, but Volkov is smart and just tags him on the outside. Volkov’s body kick gets through, and he leans away as Cortes-Acosta telegraphs his swings. He scores a low kick, and a frustrated Cortes-Acosta turns his hips into one coming back at him. Volkov flicks out a body kick and brushes Cortes-Acosta’s hair with his shin, catching a leaning Cortes-Acosta with a long right hand. A think trickle of blood leaks from the top of Volkov’s cheek, and he does not change his game plan one iota as he rips the body. Cortes-Acosta crashes at him with heavy punches, only to be jabbed back by the Russian. Volkov’s final inside low kick of the round draws a noteworthy reaction out of his opponent, with Cortes-Acosta limping back to lean on his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 3
Cortes-Acosta is the aggressor to start the final frame, whether he is tied on the scorecards or down on them, it does not matter. He flicks a low kick at the Russian, slowly working his way to crowd forward. Volkov chambers and looses a kick to the ribs, and he goes upstairs and then to the sternum in rapid succession. Cortes-Acosta’s own counter kick does not land, and he gets his leg kicked out from beneath him when rushing forward. Cortes-Acosta lunges with his fingers outstretched and jams one in Volkov’s eye, and Beltran is about to have them play through it but calls time instead to let Volkov recover. When they resume, Cortes-Acosta is angry. The Dominican starts hurling bombs, and Volkov suddenly freezes him with a jab directly into the eye socket. Volkov’s nose is pouring blood out after absorbing a bomb or two, but Cortes-Acosta is the one who appears to be struggling more as Volkov pecks away at him. Volkov digs a kick to the body and leans as a right hand upstairs brushes past his hair. Cortes-Acosta loads up on big firepower, further bloodying up the Russian’s nose as he headhunts. Volkov stands in the pocket too long to absorb a flush uppercut, but his position allows him to jab out with a front kick that sucks some of the air out of Cortes-Acosta’s lungs.
Cortes-Acosta rushes forward for a takedown, and Volkov stonewalls him and shoves him to the fence. Cortes-Acosta breaks off with a knee to the body. Volkov backs off, breathing hard as he struggles to get any air through his bloodied nostrils, and he offers up a body kick. Volkov hammers the front leg with a kick, and Cortes-Acosta has his right hand coiled and ready to launch. Cortes-Acosta uses power jabs, targeting the beacon that is Volkov’s red and shiny nose. Volkov jabs him back, and he dodges a missile of a right hand by a whisker. Volkov pins a one-two on the nose and lands two low kicks, the second of which staggering Cortes-Acosta. Cortes-Acosta still goes out swinging furiously, and he tries to get one last brawl with seconds left. Volkov gets on his bike after jabbing and chopping at the front leg, and he stays out of range as time runs out.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Cortes-Acosta (29-28 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Waldo Cortes-Acosta via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta as a dog, citing his athleticism, speed, and power. He notes Volkov has no takedown defense and Waldo can close distance without fear of Volkov's power. He mentions Waldo's win over Derrick Lewis and his ability to out-strike and out-grapple. He is concerned about Volkov's offensive wrestling but still picks Waldo. He likes the dog odds.
Angelo picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, betting on him at +160. He cites Waldo's athleticism, youth, and power, and notes that Volkov doesn't hit very hard. He thinks Waldo's footwork and takedown threat will be key, and that Volkov's only path is to wrestle, which Waldo can defend.
Big Brady leans Alexander Volkov, noting his better volume and tools on the feet. He questions Waldo's performances in decisions and thinks Volkov's chin is solid. Brady expects Volkov to win by decision, as Waldo is tough and can eat shots, but Volkov should outpoint him.
Cody picks Acosta as an underdog, citing his speed, boxing, and youth advantage over the older Volkov. He notes Volkov's inconsistency and questionable durability, and believes Acosta can win on the feet. Cody acknowledges the risk but likes the plus money value.
Connor picks Volkov, agreeing with Zane. He highlights Volkov's improved confidence and mean streak in his third act, and notes Acosta's lack of adjustments. Connor believes Volkov's jab and reach will be too much, and Acosta has no way out when stuck in a bad style matchup.
Daniel picks Acosta despite acknowledging Volkov's veteran skills and potential for a clinic. He notes Acosta's athleticism, confidence, and recent wins, and admits he has been wrong about Acosta before. Daniel feels he must pick Acosta now, even though he fears Volkov will win as a result.
The host does not bet this fight. He sees it as competitive on the feet, with Volkov having a grappling edge if he chooses to use it. He notes both have bad takedown defense and ground games, but Volkov's top game is heavy. He passes because if it stays standing, it's razor close, and if Volkov grapples, he could dominate. He also mentions the over/under but does not bet.
Predicted method: Decision. Volkov's significant height and reach advantage (6'7", 80" reach) allows him to control distance with his jab and long strikes against the shorter Cortes Acosta. Cortes Acosta has power (recent KOs over Derrick Lewis and Shamil Gaziev) but tends to be hittable (3.38 SApM) and may struggle against Volkov's technical striking. Volkov's takedown defense (68%) is adequate, and he has shown improved grappling. However, Cortes Acosta's momentum and KO power make this a dangerous fight. Volkov should win by decision if he keeps it standing.
Jacob picks Volkov, noting that Volkov rarely loses striking matches and is excellent at keeping range. He thinks the fight will look like the Pavlovich fight where Waldo backs up and can't land enough. He believes the odds should be closer to 50/50 and that Volkov is the better striker.
Lucrative James leans towards Alexander Volkov because he believes Volkov's kickboxing and experience will outpoint Cortes-Acosta over three rounds. He notes that Cortes-Acosta has struggled in longer kickboxing fights against Sergey Spivac and Sergey Pavlovich, and that Volkov is a true kickboxer. He also mentions Cortes-Acosta's recent hamstring injury as a concern. He predicts Volkov by decision.
The host picks Volkov but is hesitant due to Cortes Acosta's speed advantage. He believes Volkov has advantages in striking, grappling, and experience, and should outwork Cortes Acosta. He expects a decision win, but notes the speed difference gives him pause. He may wait for a better line.
Paul picks Volkov, citing his size, reach, and wrestling ability. He thinks Volkov can take Acosta down and control him, as Acosta has not faced elite wrestlers. Paul also mentions a small bet on Volkov by submission at plus 2000, noting Volkov's submission skills.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov, praising his underrated resume and recent performances. He notes Volkov's wins over Pavlovich and close fight with Gane. He believes Volkov's low kicks, clinch work, and body attacks will be key against Cortes Acosta, who he sees as a 'blob'. He predicts Volkov will pick him apart, possibly with a body kick KO.
Zane picks Volkov, citing his resurgence and stylistic advantage. He notes Volkov's jab and reach will trouble Acosta, who is an artless slugger with few ideas. Zane points out that Acosta has no wrestling threat, which is Volkov's historical weakness. He expects Volkov to control the fight with his jab and counters, though it's heavyweight so anything can happen.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 24 of 27 | 88% | 123 of 130 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:57 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 9 of 10 | 90% | 27 of 33 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 10:47 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 15 | 100% | 38 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 2:14 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:38 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 9 of 11 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 7 of 8 | 87% | 77 of 82 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:43 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 17 of 21 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 24 of 27 | 88% | 19 of 21 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 17 |
| Jailton Almeida | 9 of 10 | 90% | 8 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 4 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 15 | 100% | 15 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 15 |
| Jailton Almeida | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 |
| Jailton Almeida | 4 of 5 | 80% | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 7 of 8 | 87% | 2 of 2 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Jailton Almeida | 5 of 5 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Almeida (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
It’s as classic as it gets with this heavyweight collision between a striker and a grappler. Now rocking long hair and frequenting mosh pits to further toughen himself up, Volkov (38-11, 12-5 UFC) weighed 262 pounds like a Russian statue. Twenty-five pounds his lighter will be the anaconda-like Brazilian submission ace Almeida (22-3, 8-1 UFC), who is eager to put even more distance between his lone UFC loss to Curtis Blaydes. The winning party will be eagerly awaiting the results of the main event, but they have to get through one another first while referee Marc Goddard stands by. Gloves are touched.
Almeida immediately shoots for a single, and he succeeds in putting Volkov on his back 10 seconds into the match. In the open cage, Volkov leans on his side without surrendering guard or allowing Almeida to assume control. Volkov slams the back of his elbow on the side of his foe’s head, and Almeida turns away from it so the elbows start to smash in the back of the head. Goddard tells the Russian to watch out for those fouls twice, and this allows Almeida to slither his way down flat to climb atop his opponent. Volkov is placed flat on his back, and Goddard asks for the Brazilian to do more than just hang out in half guard. Almeida prefers position over offense at this stage in the game, imposing his lesser body weight from on top while flirting with an arm-triangle choke.
Almeida leans over across Volkov’s body, and Volkov hooks his leg around Almeida’s hip to turn him over and get on top. Both men find themselves seated in front of the other, and Volkov lands a single hacking elbow while Almeida tries to pull him back tightly. Almeida goes after Volkov’s leg, and Volkov answers with a number of elbows. Volkov drives down a few more strikes until Almeida sits up to put his face against the Russian’s chest. Volkov sneaks punches in from any place he can find them, and he works his way to his feet while Almeida has one leg laced up. Almeida hunts for Volkov’s leg, and Volkov steps over around it and connects with a few elbows before Almeida defends them. Volkov is warned for grabbing the glove, and he lets go of the grip and gets off some more elbows. The short ground strikes continue until the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov offers a glove touch that is accepted to begin the second round, and the Brazilian does not go after a takedown right out of the gate. Instead, he disguises it behind an overhand right, getting close enough to trip Volkov out and put him on his back before long. Volkov frames off from his back, with Almeida clinging from above without attacking. Goddard tells him to do more, so he tries to pass over to the side. Volkov hangs on and elbows Almeida as Almeida turns his head, and he turns to his side in hopes of reversing the position again. Volkov willingly gives up his back to stand back up, and Almeida uses his full body weight to mat return the Russian from behind. Volkov hangs onto a grip of Almeida’s hand to prevent a submission from materializing, so Almeida bullies him back down to the floor and places him on his back.
Goddard almost instantly calls for Almeida to do more with the position, so Almeida threatens with an arm-triangle choke until Volkov returns him to his guard. Volkov keeps control of the wrists until Goddard stands them up, and Almeida immediately shoots for a double and puts Volkov right back down. Volkov tries for a counter knee, and all it does is get him placed on the corner between the cage and the mat. Almeida finally lashes down with a single elbow, but Volkov grabs the arm on the way out to threaten with a kimura sweep. Almeida shakes his head to signal that he is not going anywhere, and Volkov commits to it by cranking the left arm of “Malhadinho” with all of his energy. Almeida keeps his arm safe, and the rough round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Almeida
Round 3
The fighters high-five to start off the last round, and Volkov wades forward. Almeida ducks down into a right hand as he pursues a single, and he gets Volkov down but only for a second. Volkov bounces off the canvas and hunts for his own single, backing Almeida to the fence but ultimately releasing the leg. Volkov knees the body and thigh rom in the clinch, and Almeida throws one back to remind his opponent that he can actually strike too. Volkov elbows up top, and he lowers himself down expecting the takedown that comes. The Russian cannot stave it off on the second effort, so he settles for closing his guard to trap Almeida and prevent him from hitting him. Goddard tells Almeida to work, and Almeida stands up to stack Volkov up. Volkov smacks him with feeble, short hammerfists, and he turns to push his heel off of Almeida’s side and push him back.
Almeida lands one single strike before Volkov throws his legs up wildly, and he shucks off a triangle choke setup without concern. Volkov pushes off the chest when Goddard again calls for activity, and Almeida backs off and then bowls his way back down on top to assume top control. Almeida elbows the side and looks to pass guard, so Volkov flips over to his knees. Almeida follows him and gets a hook in to drag him back to the floor, and he secures the other hook shortly thereafter. Volkov’s left ear is smashed from something during the fight, and his ear leaks blood down the side of his head. He does not seem concerned, as all of his attention is on Almeida. Goddard tells them to stand, and Almeida attacks as Volkov looks irritated at him. Almeida shoots for and completes an easy takedown, and he drums Volkov on the chin a few times until the final horn blares. The fans are not thrilled by the performance, and scores could go either way depending on how Almeida’s relatively damage-free approach has succeeded.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (29-28 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jailton Almeida via Split Decision (28-29, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida despite being a fan, citing his dominant wrestling as the best heavyweight wrestling ever seen. He acknowledges Volkov is the better MMA striker but believes Jailton's relentless takedowns and ground pressure will overwhelm Volkov. Angelo hopes Jailton gets a title shot with a win.
Big Brady confidently picks Jailton Almeida, calling him the best wrestler in the heavyweight division after outwrestling Curtis Blaydes. He notes Volkov has been taken down repeatedly, even by Ciryl Gane, and expects Almeida to get the fight to the mat quickly. Brady predicts Almeida will dominate with ground and pound and eventually submit Volkov in the first round. He acknowledges concerns about Almeida's durability and heart but believes the matchup is favorable.
Cody picks Alexander Volkov as a plus 170 underdog, citing Almeida's cardio issues and tendency to gas after multiple takedown attempts. He notes that Volkov has improved wrestling and get-up game, as seen against Blaydes, and has a clear striking advantage. Cody believes that if Almeida doesn't finish early, Volkov will extend the fight and win in later rounds.
Connor picks Volkov, trusting his durability and ability to survive early takedowns. He believes Almeida will gas after a fast start, allowing Volkov to take over in the later rounds. Connor notes Volkov's recent form and improved confidence, and thinks he can avoid submissions long enough to win a decision or late TKO.
Daniel Vreeland is confident in Jailton Almeida's grappling superiority, predicting he will take Volkov down and submit him. He points out Volkov's poor guillotine attempt and poor leg positioning against Ciryl Gane as a sign of vulnerability. He believes Almeida's top pressure and submission skills will be too much, and that Almeida will secure a title shot with this win.
Lucrative James picks Alexander Volkov based on value, but admits he actually predicts Jailton Almeida to win. He sees the fight as close to 50/50, but believes Volkov's improved takedown defense and size advantage give him a chance if the fight goes past round one. He notes Almeida's excellent wrestling and jiu-jitsu but questions his durability and ability to handle adversity. He emphasizes that his pick is for betting value, not necessarily his true prediction.
The host sees this as a perfect fight for Almeida to showcase grappling dominance. Despite Volkov's improvements, he expects Almeida to get to dominant positions and finish within a round and a half.
Paul agrees with Cody, adding that Volkov's size, reach, and cardio are key. He notes that Almeida's takedown-heavy style leads to gassing, and Volkov's striking and grappling are underrated. Paul also mentions that Volkov has fought five rounds multiple times and has a good chin, making him a solid underdog pick.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov by late-round TKO, despite Volkov being an underdog. He argues that Volkov's size, takedown defense, and recent form (beating Ciryl Gane) make him a tough matchup for Jailton Almeida. He notes that Almeida has been hurt before (by Curtis Blaydes) and may struggle to keep Volkov down. He expects Volkov to land teeps and jabs, and potentially finish Almeida in the second or third round. He admits Almeida could make quick work, but doubts it.
Zane picks Almeida, reasoning that in a three-round fight, Almeida's relentless wrestling will overwhelm Volkov before he can gas. He notes Volkov's poor takedown defense and Almeida's ability to secure takedowns quickly. Zane acknowledges Volkov's durability and late-round consistency but thinks the shorter fight favors Almeida.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 0 | 43 of 61 | 70% | 48 of 66 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 3:40 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 39 of 71 | 54% | 105 of 140 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 4:32 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 17 of 20 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:38 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 10 of 14 | 71% | 12 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:34 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 27 of 39 | 69% | 27 of 39 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 25 of 47 | 53% | 25 of 47 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Ciryl Gane | 0 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:23 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 68 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:58 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ciryl Gane | 43 of 61 | 70% | 14 of 30 | 10 of 11 | 19 of 20 | 40 of 57 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Alexander Volkov | 39 of 71 | 54% | 19 of 46 | 18 of 20 | 2 of 5 | 36 of 67 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ciryl Gane | 12 of 15 | 80% | 3 of 6 | 5 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Alexander Volkov | 10 of 14 | 71% | 2 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 1 of 2 | 9 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Ciryl Gane | 27 of 39 | 69% | 9 of 19 | 5 of 6 | 13 of 14 | 27 of 38 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkov | 25 of 47 | 53% | 14 of 32 | 10 of 12 | 1 of 3 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Ciryl Gane | 4 of 7 | 57% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexander Volkov | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ciryl Gane, stating he will win the same way he did in their first fight: with superior footwork and technique. He notes Volkov hasn't shown improvements in striking or wrestling since then, and hasn't attempted a takedown in years. Gane's striking is elite, as shown in his 109-11 significant strike advantage over Sergey Pavlovich. The fight is only three rounds, favoring Gane.
Cody picks Gane, expecting a similar striking battle to their first fight. He notes Volkov's momentum but believes Gane's speed and Muay Thai will outpoint him. He suggests Gane by decision, as Volkov likely won't wrestle. He also mentions a YOLO bet on Volkov by submission at long odds.
Connor states that Gane is simply better at the same game Volkov plays. He notes that Gane is faster, more fluid, and operates at the same range more efficiently. The first fight was a dominant win for Gane, and Connor sees no reason for a different outcome unless Volkov switches to wrestling, which he doubts will work.
Daniel Vreeland picks Ciryl Gane, stating that Volkov used to be much bigger or longer than his opponents, but that's not the case here. He notes Gane is better technically on the feet and can avoid getting hit, allowing him to pick Volkov apart and likely win a decision.
Daniel picks Gane based on his previous win and superior athleticism, but notes Volkov's hunger and recent resurgence. He mentions Gane's mental fragility in big fights and Volkov's four-fight win streak, making this a lean rather than confident pick.
Jeff Fox picks Alexander Volkov for the value, noting that Volkov has looked infinitely better in his last few fights and is clearly making improvements late in his career. He points to Volkov's dominant win over Pavlovich as evidence, and mentions Volkov's underrated wrestling and Ezekiel choke finish. Fox believes Volkov learns from his previous loss to Gane and will show a better version of himself, and that the fight was closer than the odds suggest.
Lucrative James picks Ciryl Gane to win by decision, expecting a repeat of their first fight. He highlights Gane's elite jab and in-fight adaptations as key. He predicts a 49-46 scorecard, with Gane outworking Volkov over five rounds. He doesn't see Volkov improving enough to change the outcome.
Gane will utilize his footwork, speed, and striking to get the better of Volkov once again, staying away from any grappling threat or power shots. Gane is still the better mixed martial artist and will win this fight on the scorecards.
Paul picks Gane, citing his cleaner striking and speed advantage. He notes Volkov's wrestling ability but doubts he'll use it. He thinks Gane will win a decision in a three-round fight, as Volkov is content to stand and trade.
The MMA Guru picks Gane in the rematch, noting Volkov's improved standup but believing Gane can match his output and movement. He thinks Volkov cannot hurt Gane, while Gane has a better chance of hurting Volkov. He also cites Volkov's knee injury postponing the fight as a factor favoring Gane, especially in a low-kick battle.
Zane echoes Connor, noting that Gane's speed and movement outclass Volkov. He points out that Volkov's game relies on range and size, but Gane is faster and can operate in the same range. Zane also mentions that Volkov would need to change his approach drastically to win, which is unlikely.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 46 of 134 | 34% | 46 of 134 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 83 of 159 | 52% | 83 of 160 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 43 | 34% | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 50 | 52% | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 31 of 55 | 56% | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 16 of 52 | 30% | 16 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:15 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 0 | 26 of 54 | 48% | 26 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 46 of 134 | 34% | 38 of 120 | 7 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 46 of 134 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 83 of 159 | 52% | 35 of 89 | 16 of 28 | 32 of 42 | 83 of 159 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 43 | 34% | 14 of 40 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 50 | 52% | 9 of 25 | 6 of 10 | 11 of 15 | 26 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 10 of 33 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 31 of 55 | 56% | 9 of 24 | 6 of 12 | 16 of 19 | 31 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexander Volkov | 16 of 52 | 30% | 14 of 47 | 1 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 16 of 52 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Sergei Pavlovich | 26 of 54 | 48% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 6 | 5 of 8 | 26 of 54 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Pavlovich (-218), Volkov (+180)
Round 1
The high-stakes, all-Russian, heavyweight co-main event kicks off, with Jason Herzog on referee duty. Volkov immediately goes to his front kick up the middle, trying to keep the shorter power puncher at bay. Pavlovich stalks, flicking out his long jab and looking for opportunities to spring into range on his towering foe. Pavlovich comes inside and is met by a hard jab, then lands on of his own. Volkov plants a kick on the liver, and ducks a vicious overhand counter. Volkov throws a jab to the body and Pavlovich comes back with a right high kick that lands on the shoulder. Under 90 seconds to go in the round, and everything is still tense, tentative; it feels as though either man might land a fight-ending blow at any moment. Volkov reaches out with a southpaw left cross and slips the counter. The horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
Volkov is again mobile, throwing single and double jabs while sliding around the outside of the cage. A huge overhand right from Pavlovich misses just short. Volkov switches stances freely, using kicks to disguise them. Pavlovich throws a high kick that bounces off Volkov’s shoulder as he turns. Pavlovich is stalking, trying to cut off the cage. He is bleeding from the bridge of the nose, thanks to the reliable jab and one-two of Volkov. Volkov reaches out with a slow kick that slaps off the arms, then retreats as Pavlovich surges forward with punches. Volkov throws his teep up the middle, the ball of his foot connecting with the midsection of Pavlovich. Pavlovich catches Volkov with a big right hand that causes him to stagger. Volkov seems to recover, however, moving laterally and avoiding any follow-up. Volkov connects with a standing hammerfist. Pavlovich continues to follow, but can’t land anything of consequence before the round expires.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 3
Round 3 opens as the first two did, with Volkov in southpaw, moving laterally around the outside as orthodox Pavlovich gives chase. The face of Pavlovich is showing the wear of two good rounds of patient, methodical jabs and crosses from his countryman. Pavlovich eats a jab and lunges in with a big right hand that doesn’t quite land squarely. Volkov sticks Pavlovich with a lead right hand and eats a three-piece combo in return. Volkov looks loose, throwing hard punches and willingly engaging, despite likely being ahead on the cards. His corner is audibly screaming at him. Halfway through the round, the pace has settled back down, and Pavlovich is plodding forward, walking right into the push kick and jab of Volkov. Pavlovich explodes forwards with a pair of punches that are mostly parried. Pavlovich dips and drives Volkov to the cage, perhaps looking for a takedown, but gives up on the attempt with 30 seconds to go. Pavlovich comes forward and punches the body, and catches Volkov cleanly on the shin at the 10-second clapper. Volkov eats it like a blini, returning fire with a head kick. The final horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov (30-27 Volkov)
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Sergei Pavlovich via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
Angelo picks Volkov, citing his height, reach, experience, and well-rounded game. He thinks Volkov will slow the pace, lean on Pavlovic, and grind out a win. He notes Pavlovic is a powerful boxer but lacks cardio and wrestling. He believes the friendship between them will lead to a feeling-out process, making the over 1.5 rounds a good bet. He placed a bet on over 1.5 rounds at plus money.
Big Brady picks Sergei Pavlovich to win by first-round knockout, citing his devastating power and Volkov's admission that Pavlovich hurts him in sparring. He notes that if Volkov tries to wrestle, it's not his game, and striking with Pavlovich is dangerous. Brady expects Pavlovich to swarm and finish early.
Cody picks Volkov as an underdog, highlighting his reach, counter-striking, and cardio advantage. He believes Volkov can use kicks to keep distance, time Pavlovich's charges with counters, and potentially take the fight to the ground where Pavlovich is vulnerable. He notes Pavlovich's tendency to walk straight in with his hands down.
Daniel Vreeland picks Alexander Volkov as the underdog, citing Pavlovich's lack of experience past round one in the UFC and potential cardio issues. He believes Volkov can use his reach, jabs, and teeps to pick Pavlovich apart if he survives the early onslaught. However, he is hesitant because Pavlovich's power could end the fight early.
Jacob picks Volkov, noting he doesn't lose to strikers and knows how to keep range and mix in takedowns. He worries about the friendship angle potentially leading to a sparring match, but thinks if Pavlovic pulls punches, Volkov wins. He also notes Pavlovic looks jacked but that might work against his cardio. He advises staying away from betting on this fight entirely.
JP is a Volkov hater and confidently picks Pavlovich by KO/TKO, citing Pavlovich's wins over Curtis Blaydes, Tai Tuivasa, and Derrick Lewis. He expects Pavlovich to clip Volkov early. Brevan disagrees, picking Volkov by decision, arguing that Volkov's size, chin, and experience will take Pavlovich into deep waters. He notes Volkov's technical striking and ability to survive round one. The hosts have opposing picks.
Paul agrees with the underdog pick, citing Volkov's length, experience, and submission threat. He notes that Pavlovich is a battering ram but has shown vulnerability when taken down, as seen against Aspinall. Paul believes Volkov can survive the early storm and take over in later rounds.
The MMA Guru picks Sergei Pavlovich over Alexander Volkov, but with hesitation. He acknowledges Volkov's toughness and kicking game, especially against plodding opponents, but believes Pavlovich's power and pressure will eventually catch Volkov against the cage. He notes that Volkov tends to back up and shell up, which could lead to a finish. He also mentions that Pavlovich's reach and head-hunting style are threats, but admits Volkov is a live underdog and the odds should be closer.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 28 of 67 | 41% | 30 of 69 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 93 of 143 | 65% | 107 of 164 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 2:35 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 15 of 39 | 38% | 16 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 1 | 51 of 83 | 61% | 53 of 86 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 13 of 28 | 46% | 14 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 0 | 42 of 60 | 70% | 54 of 78 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 28 of 67 | 41% | 4 of 31 | 7 of 9 | 17 of 27 | 26 of 65 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 93 of 143 | 65% | 65 of 110 | 18 of 21 | 10 of 12 | 72 of 115 | 3 of 3 | 18 of 25 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 15 of 39 | 38% | 0 of 16 | 5 of 7 | 10 of 16 | 15 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 51 of 83 | 61% | 29 of 56 | 13 of 16 | 9 of 11 | 50 of 82 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexander Volkov | 13 of 28 | 46% | 4 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 11 | 11 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Tai Tuivasa | 42 of 60 | 70% | 36 of 54 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 22 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 25 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-250), Tuivasa (+205)
Round 1
Hold onto your hats, because when these heavyweights start swinging, someone may go down hard. While Tuivasa (14-5, 8-5 UFC) has struggled against the top echelon of the division, the same can be said about his Russian adversary Volkov (36-10, 10-4 UFC) – although only the former is on a losing streak. Combining for about 528.5 pounds in the cage, not counting referee Herb Dean, the large strikers will be performing a stress test on the cage floor and walls for as long as one remains standing. The heavy fists are bumped first as a courtesy, and Volkov goes right after a leg kick. He lifts his leg up when Tuivasa slings one back harder, and he tries to check it again when Tuivasa swings hard. Volkov counters another low kick with a right hand over the top, and he shoulder-rolls a punch to smack “Bam Bam” with an uppercut. Tuivasa comes up close and digs a right hand to the body, and his leg kicks might already be having an impact. Volkov slaps back a low kick, and he strings a one-two into a body kick that rustles Tuivasa’s cup. Tuivasa laughs it off, and the two resume after a glove touch. Volkov doubles up a low kick with one to the body, and Tuivasa runs at him flailing his fists. The Russian counters him and slides out of the way, and Tuivasa keeps coming towards him as his nose starts to bleed from jabs and straight right hands. Tuivasa has a leg kick caught, and he gets knocked to his knees from a piston-like right hand from “Drago.” Volkov allows his foe to get back up, and he times a Tuivasa charge with a right hand and two more quick punches on the inside. Tuivasa walks into a leg kick that he tries to turn with, and Volkov circles on the outside not allowing the Aussie to trap him. Tuivasa scores a low kick, and Volkov responds with a body kick, a left hand and a head kick. Tuivasa takes it all flush and ducks down while swinging a huge right hand, and Volkov counters him and gets nailed with a leg kick. Tuivasa unloads with another leg kick, and Volkov lifts his leg up and then strings several punches and kick together. Tuivasa scares his man with a pair of punches, but Volkov rolls well enough and resets to target Tuivasa’s body several times. Volkov dips out of the way of an overhand right, and he tries to check a leg kick and drops Tuivasa with a right hand. Volkov grips a guillotine choke, and he lets it go to bust Tuivasa up with several short punches and two nasty elbows. Tuivasa backs off, and he lets loose a leg kick with all his might. Volkov grunts and racks Tuivasa up with six punches and two body kicks. Tuivasa gets knocked against the wall, and he bends over, taking shots, until the horn sounds to possibly save him.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Edwin Ayala scores the round: 10-9 Volkov
Round 2
The big men clap hands to start off the second round, and Tuivasa plods forward and releases a powerful leg kick. Tuivasa closes in and gets popped with a few shots, and he leans back and connects with another leg kick. Tuivasa continues to batter the lead leg with kicks, and Volkov is wearing it and is quite ginger on it. Volkov kicks the midsection, and he gets off two uppercuts as Tuivasa bears down on him. Tuivasa blocks several punches but cannot stop the knee that comes up the middle, and he misses two punches and gets knocked back from a huge right hand. Tuivasa’s chin holds up and he grins, blood leaking out of his mouth, and the crowd gives it up for the two putting on the show. Tuivasa kicks low, and Volkov times a perfect right hand to send Tuivasa tumbling to his seat. Volkov climbs on top and advances right to half guard, and he considers a choke only for Tuivasa to muscle his way out of it. Tuivasa blitzes forward, and Volkov lets him do this so he can counter with sharper strikes. Volkov checks a kick and plants a one-two on the chin, and when he checks another, he gets off a right hand that knocks Tuivasa down. With two minutes and 10 seconds remaining, Volkov jumps into full mount, and he unloads punches and smashes the Aussie in the face with an elbow. The Russian keeps his legs intertwined with Tuivasa’s to disallow him from an escape, and Volkov lowers himself down in pursuit of an arm-triangle choke. Volkov bails on it to start striking, and Tuivasa throws back but is getting pummeled. “Bam Bam” rolls over to his stomach and keeps getting pounded, and he nearly escapes out the side only for Volkov to recover and get back to mount. Volkov keeps working with short strikes, and he sets up an Ezekiel choke out of nowhere as he fastens his left forearm arm over the neck and hooks his right arm behind the head. A frantic Tuivasa tries to buck off the massive Russian with all of his energy left, but Volkov uses his full body weight to finish the choke and trap Tuivasa fully. Tuivasa has nothing left to do at this point but choose whether he will submit or go out on his shield, and he taps out on Volkov’s side to conclude the fight. Remarkably, “Drago” has performed just the fourth submission of his career, and it marks his first since 2016. He joins countryman Alexey Oleynik and UFC 7 combatant Remco Pardoel as the only three to ever perform an Ezekiel choke in promotional history.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Tai Tuivasa R2 4:37 via Submission (Ezekiel Choke)
Angelo picks Alexander Volkov, noting he is more well-rounded and technical. He acknowledges Tai Tuivasa's one-punch knockout power and fan support, but believes Volkov's volume, timing, and durability will win. Angelo has a half-unit parlay with Volkov and Justin Tafa at plus money.
Big Brady picks the underdog Tai Tuivasa, citing his power and hometown advantage. He acknowledges Volkov is the better minute-winner but thinks Tuivasa only needs one shot. He notes Tuivasa's losses are to elite heavyweights. He predicts a first-round knockout.
Cody picks Volkov based on superior striking, volume, cardio, and grappling advantage, but is hesitant due to heavyweight volatility and Tuivasa's knockout power. He notes that Volkov's chin is a concern and that Tuivasa could land a big shot, especially with the hometown crowd. Cody suggests Volkov is the official pick but warns against parlaying him at -250.
Daniel Levi picks Alexander Volkov but with low confidence, stating he is rooting for Tuivasa. He believes Volkov will use volume and range to outwork Tuivasa, similar to his fight against Derrick Lewis. Levi notes that Tuivasa has a puncher's chance and could land a big shot, but Volkov's ability to stay at a safe range and keep working gives him the edge. He says he is not putting money on it.
Lucrative James is very confident Alexander Volkov will win, likely by knockout. He sees Volkov as levels above Tuivasa, with a significant reach advantage that will keep Tuivasa on the outside. He notes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses may make him hesitant, and his takedown attempts are unathletic and easily stuffed. James expects Volkov to dominate with straight shots and long teeps, similar to how Derrick Lewis kept Tuivasa at range.
Volkov is on a three-fight winning streak, utilizing his kicking game and one-two down the pipe to maintain distance. He has a significant reach advantage. Tuivasa is on a two-fight losing streak against top competition and relies on big shots. Volkov should stick with front kicks to the body to slow Tuivasa, then finish with strikes within a round and a half.
Paul picks Volkov but is hesitant, acknowledging Tuivasa's hometown advantage and knockout power. He likes Volkov's recent wins over Romanov and Rozenstruik, but notes that Tuivasa could feed off the crowd and land a big shot. Paul suggests Volkov over 27.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks as a play.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov over Tai Tuivasa, despite acknowledging Tuivasa's dangerous calf kicks and knockout power. He notes that Volkov is underrated, with a close decision loss to Ciryl Gane and a win over Alistair Overeem. Volkov has bulked up to 260 pounds and uses teeps and front kicks effectively against shorter opponents. He believes Tuivasa's recent knockout losses to Gane and Pavlovich have damaged his career, and Volkov will keep him at range with front kicks to the body, finishing him in round two.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)
Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.
Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.
Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.
Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.
I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.
Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.
Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 21 of 37 | 56% | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 0 | 6 of 18 | 33% | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 21 of 37 | 56% | 10 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 21 of 37 | 56% | 10 of 26 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jairzinho Rozenstruik | 6 of 18 | 33% | 3 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Volkov (-155), Rozenstruik (+135)
Round 1
The heavyweight headliner is upon us as 515.5 pounds of man is slated to meet in the center of the cage in mere moments. Both Volkov (34-10, 8-4 UFC) and Rozenstruik (12-3, 6-3 UFC) are clinging to spots in the bottom half of the top 10 of the weight class, and a loss could eject one into the 11-15 range. Knockout rates of 65% for Volkov and 92% for “Bigi Boy” will throw down as referee Herb Dean hangs on tight, and fight fans around the world hope for action and excitement in the last fight of the day. Large gloves get touched ahead of the final bout of the card, and the main event is on. Two kicks from Volkov come fast, and Rozenstruik responds with one to the lower leg. Volkov is active in the first 15 seconds with a handful of kicks to all targets, including a high kick that slaps off Rozenstruik’s right hand. Volkov absorbs a low kick after blocking a punch, and he jabs his foe several times to the body. “Drago” chips away with body kicks, loosing a kiai every time he strikes. Volkov lands a few to the legs, and when he goes to the body, Rozenstruik pounces. Rozenstruik just misses on a huge, looping hook, and Volkov gathers himself and pierces the guard with a jab and a low kick. The former kickboxer responds with a heavier leg kick, and Volkov gets lazy when he lands a body kick again. Rozenstruik comes out furiously, letting loose with a few punches up high that surprise the Russian. Volkov staggers Rozenstruik with a straight right hand, and Rozenstruik leans towards the wall as he is in big trouble from the blow.
Three lightning-quick punches from “Drago” dislodge the mouthpiece of Rozenstruik, and Volkov continues punching as Rozenstruik’s lights flicker in and out. Smelling blood and knowing he could get his first first-round finish since 2016, Volkov unleashes a fury to match his tattoo, with a final barrage of punches that knock Rozenstruik against the wall. Dean intervenes before Rozenstruik hits the mat or loses consciousness, and he must not have liked what he saw by Rozenstruik’s body language to step in like this.
Volkov gets peeled away and Rozenstruik staggers off, but he is on his feet still and protests to Dean that he was not out. No matter what he says, the fight is over, and “Bigi Boy” is clearly on wobbled legs from the damage he absorbed when Volkov teed off on him. Volkov is back in the win column in a big way, with a knockout that will keep him in contendership for the foreseeable future. That is one event in the books, and many more are to come for the next several weeks. UFC 275 in Singapore – and four Road to UFC events before that – are on deck next week. We will be here for all of it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Jairzinho Rozenstruik R1 2:12 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo trusts Volkov's fight IQ and long striking style to keep him out of danger against Rozenstruik's one-punch power. He notes Volkov's recent losses were to elite grapplers and strikers, and believes Volkov can win a technical striking match or even mix in takedowns. The only worry is a repeat of the Derrick Lewis loss, but he sides with Volkov.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He thinks Volkov will be the clear minute winner with his volume and reach advantage, out-striking Rozenstruik over five rounds. He acknowledges Rozenstruik's power and that it only takes one shot, but believes Volkov's chin is good and he can avoid the knockout. He notes Volkov has looked off in recent fights (against Tybura and Aspinall) but still expects him to win. He mentions that Rozenstruik by KO at +200 is a possible prop.
Cody agrees with Paul's assessment, emphasizing Volkov's reach, output, and ability to stay on the outside. He notes Rozenstruik's power and the small cage as concerns but believes Volkov's volume will be key. He picks Volkov by decision and also likes the over 3.5 rounds.
Daniel Levi picks Jairzinho Rozenstruik as the underdog, citing Volkov's decline after the Ciryl Gane fight and poor performances against Tybura and Aspinall. He notes Rozenstruik's power, counter-striking, and the small cage favoring the shorter fighter. He recommends a one-unit bet on Rozenstruik by knockout at +210, as he doubts Volkov's durability and motivation.
Paul argues that Volkov's high volume and durability should carry him to victory as long as he avoids getting knocked out. He notes that Rozenstruik is low-volume and unlikely to win a decision, and suggests Volkov by decision is a strong prop. He acknowledges the risk of Rozenstruik's power but believes Volkov's output will be decisive.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Volkov to win by decision. He criticizes Rozenstruik as 'fat', 'untrustworthy', and a 'coward', noting he often hesitates and stands around. He believes Volkov's range, front kicks, and size advantage will keep Rozenstruik at bay. He mentions Volkov's underrated chin and activity, and thinks Rozenstruik will freeze up. He predicts a lackluster decision with Volkov winning the majority of rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 13 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 29 of 43 | 67% | 35 of 50 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:54 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tom Aspinall | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Volkov | 29 of 43 | 67% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Aspinall | 13 of 23 | 56% | 6 of 16 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
| Alexander Volkov | 29 of 43 | 67% | 16 of 30 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 16 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
In extremely hostile territory, Russian striker Volkov (34-9, 8-3 UFC) will compete as one half of the main event against surging British upstart and pure finisher Aspinall (11-2, 4-0 UFC). The partisan crowd has been treated to plenty of locals getting their hand raised thus far tonight, and they hope to end the night with the Team Kaobon fighter out of Manchester getting it done once more. Referee Marc Goddard will serve as the final Octagon ranger of the evening, and a cool hand shake is exchanged before the two inflict powerful heavyweight violence on one another. Aspinall starts first with several quick punches, landing a trio of shots on the chin as Volkov is caught standing still. Volkov backs off to get into his preferred range, landing leg kicks and checking one of his own. The Brit surges forward, grabbing hold of his opponent and wrenching him down to the mat. Landing in side control one minute into the round, Aspinall elects to step into half guard and hack down with short elbows. Volkov is already cut from these elbows on the side of his head, and Aspinall continues working on it. Aspinall lets go with his other hand, slamming down fists and elbows as Volkov struggles to work his way to the fence. When the Russian sits up, Aspinall isolates a two-on-one wrist lock to try to hunt for a kimura, but Volkov straightens his arm and fights back up to his feet. Aspinall resets, and Volkov chips at him with a leg kick and a right hand as Aspinall advances with a hacking standing elbow. Aspinall attacks the leg and stands right in front of his opponent, throwing strikes, and Volkov is frozen watching it happen. Aspinall throws a kick and falls to the ground, and although Volkov runs over to try to capitalize on the position, Aspinall rolls and stands back up to high five Volkov. The Brit gathers his footing and rushes in, hitting a tackle of a double-leg takedown to put the Russian down to the canvas again.
Instead of hunting for ground-and-pound, Aspinall immediately goes after Volkov’s left arm. Briefly considering a kimura again, Aspinall changes it up to lock up a straight armbar, and Volkov taps out frantically when his elbow hyperextends.
The Team Kaobon fighter releases, and he sprints to the cage wall to climb it alongside teammate Darren Till. This is unquestionably a breakout performance for the instant heavyweight contender, blowing through a durable, crafty veteran while barely breaking a sweat. What a major turn of events in a fight card full of them, closing out a thrilling card that very well will be involved in “Event of the Year” conversations in nine-plus months. In his post-fight conversation with commentator Michael Bisping, the victorious Aspinall challenges Tai Tuivasa to drink beer with him – and fight – when the promotion returns to England. Should that come together, we will be here for it, and we hope you are too.
The Official Result
Tom Aspinall def. Alexander Volkov R1 3:45 via Submission (Straight Armbar)
Angelo picks Tom Aspinall, citing his superior pure striking, more power, and better grappling compared to Volkov. He notes that Volkov has lost to strikers like Gane and Lewis, and to grapplers like Blaydes. Angelo acknowledges Volkov's durability and the fact that Aspinall has never gone three rounds, but still sees Aspinall as the straightforward pick. He has a moneyline bet on Aspinall at minus 110.
Big Brady picks Alexander Volkov to win by late knockout. He has question marks about Aspinall's cardio, as Aspinall has never won a fight past 1.5 rounds and slowed in the Arlovski fight. Brady believes Volkov has a proven chin, excellent cardio, and has faced much better competition. He doubts Aspinall can take Volkov down and thinks the fight will stay on the feet, where Volkov's experience and durability will prevail.
Cody picks Aspinall but is hesitant due to the five-round distance. He notes Aspinall's speed and power advantage, and thinks his grappling might be better, but the five rounds scare him. He hasn't placed a bet on it.
Daniel Levi picks Tom Aspinall at dog odds (+110), citing his speed advantage, confidence, and Volkov's potential decline after missing a title shot. He notes Aspinall's footwork and movement are rare for a heavyweight, and that Volkov's recent performances have been shaky. Levi acknowledges the cardio question but believes Aspinall can finish early or outpoint Volkov. He also mentions that Volkov's last two five-round fights were losses.
Volkov is a 43-fight veteran who has only been knocked out twice, showing durability. Aspinall's win condition is a first-round KO; if he doesn't get it, he fades. Volkov's range kickboxing, teeps, and leg kicks will chip away at Aspinall's gas tank. Aspinall's win over Spivak was impressive but Spivak looked intimidated. Volkov at underdog odds is great value; I'll bet him at +120 to +130 for 2 units. I'm picking Volkov via third-round TKO.
Paul picks Volkov, emphasizing the five-round advantage and Volkov's durability. He argues Aspinall needs a first-round KO, but Volkov has a good chin and cardio. He cites Volkov's improvements in takedown defense and size, and believes Aspinall's aggressive style will lead to fatigue in later rounds.
The Guru picks Tom Aspinall despite the close odds, citing Aspinall's speed, power, and grappling pedigree. He notes Volkov's vulnerability to being cracked, referencing Derrick Lewis's knockout, and believes Aspinall's team focus (after Darren Till left) will elevate him. He also mentions potential hometown judging bias in the UK. He predicts a first-round TKO, with Aspinall landing a 1-2 straight down the pipe.
Alexandr Romanov - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 45 of 92 | 48% | 87 of 135 | 6 of 10 | 60% | 1 | 0 | 7:33 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 31 of 91 | 34% | 48 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 32 of 36 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 4:47 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 17 of 28 | 60% | 26 of 37 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:46 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 10 of 34 | 29% | 24 of 48 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 26 of 59 | 44% | 29 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 0 | 20 of 56 | 35% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 45 of 92 | 48% | 37 of 82 | 3 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 39 of 79 | 4 of 8 | 2 of 5 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 31 of 91 | 34% | 19 of 77 | 7 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 90 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 2 of 5 | 40% | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 17 of 28 | 60% | 14 of 23 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 10 of 34 | 29% | 7 of 30 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 26 of 59 | 44% | 21 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 24 of 55 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rodrigo Nascimento | 20 of 56 | 35% | 12 of 47 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 20 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Romanov despite acknowledging he has a quit button and has looked soft recently. He believes Romanov is the better wrestler and only needs one takedown per round to win. He notes Romanov has been competing in grappling competitions outside the UFC. He admits he is a 'simp for wrestlers' and bet on Romanov at +115. He worries about Romanov's weight cut and says you never know until you see him on the scale.
Big Brady picks Rodrigo Nascimento to win by second-round submission, but with low confidence. He heavily criticizes Romanov's cardio and submission defense, calling them the worst he's ever seen. Brady notes that if Romanov doesn't finish early, he gasses out. He trusts Nascimento's BJJ black belt and cardio, expecting him to survive takedowns and eventually submit a gassed Romanov. He says he wants to see weigh-ins before finalizing.
Cody picks Alexander Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and higher level of competition. He notes that Nascimento has poor durability and cardio, and has lost to lower-level opponents. He believes Romanov can win a striking fight or mix in takedowns to secure a victory. He acknowledges Romanov's inconsistency but sees Nascimento as a favorable matchup.
Daniel Vreeland picks Rodrigo Nascimento, citing Alexander Romanov's decline after being figured out and his lack of depth beyond suplexes. He believes Nascimento is more well-rounded and consistent, though he has a questionable chin. Vreeland notes that Romanov hasn't looked the same since his stunts and that Nascimento's improvement fight-to-fight gives him the edge, but he's not highly confident.
Romanov is dangerous early with his wrestling, but Nascimento will stay out of danger, pull away in the second and third rounds, and likely get a finish late.
Paul picks Romanov but is hesitant, noting his inconsistency and cardio issues. He believes Romanov's wrestling and physicality should be enough to beat Nascimento, who he sees as a lower-level heavyweight. He mentions that Romanov's best skill is his takedown ability, but he struggles to maintain control. He expects a close fight but favors Romanov.
The Guru picks Alexander Romanov over Rodrigo Nascimento, believing Romanov's grappling will be the difference. He criticizes Nascimento's talent level and notes Romanov's decent offensive grappling. He suggests a possible early TKO finish in the first round and mentions that betting on Romanov for an early finish might offer good odds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 2 | 0 | 2:07 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jailton Almeida | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jailton Almeida confidently, citing his relentless wrestling and power. He notes that Romanov has quit in fights before and has looked out of shape, while Almeida is always in shape and can take down anyone. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov and eventually get a finish or a quit.
Big Brady leans toward Jailton Almeida but is not fully bought in, calling it a great bounce-back spot. He thinks Almeida gets takedowns and eventually a finish, with much better cardio. However, he is iffy on Almeida and notes that if Romanov gets on top, he could win. He expects someone gets finished and will play both sides, with Romanov as a punt play down low.
Cody picks Almeida, arguing Romanov has not improved, has poor cardio, and has shown a quitting mentality (e.g., vs Volkov). He notes Almeida took down Curtis Blaydes nine times and has better cardio. Cody believes Almeida will take Romanov down, wear him out, and either submit him or win by TKO. He dismisses Romanov's wins as over low-level opposition.
Daniel Vreeland also picks Almeida, noting he has the advantage wherever the fight goes. Romanov will want to wrestle but Almeida is the better grappler. Vreeland is disappointed in Romanov's quitting tendencies and sees Almeida as a good bounce-back fight after the Blades loss.
Daniel notes both are grapplers with red flags. He points out Romanov's size advantage and that he's a dog for the first time, suggesting a market overcorrection. He is unsure but goes with the underdog Romanov.
Jeff Fox is very confident in Almeida, calling the -250 line a steal. He argues that Almeida took Curtis Blades down 10 times in five minutes, and Blades is one of the best heavyweight wrestlers ever. Romanov, by contrast, quits when he doesn't have the grappling advantage, as seen in past fights. Fox expects Almeida to dominate and Romanov to quit early.
The host believes Almeida's superior gas tank and grappling will overcome Romanov's early wrestling. Romanov's cardio issues will resurface as Almeida pressures him, leading to a finish in the second round via TKO or submission. Almeida's ability to take down and smash opponents is the key, and Romanov's recent decision win is not enough to change the host's mind.
Paul leans toward Romanov as a dog, calling it a 'classic dogger pass heavyweight situation.' He notes Romanov's solid wrestling and Almeida's lack of a plan B if takedowns fail. He points out Almeida gassed against Curtis Blaydes after nine takedowns. Paul thinks Romanov can win by decision if he avoids getting submitted, and mentions the tempting plus money price.
The MMA Guru picks Jailton Almeida, criticizing Romanov's poor shape and calling him a 'fat [__]'. He believes Almeida will ragdoll Romanov with grappling and that Romanov will gas out. He expresses frustration that the UFC keeps Almeida active despite his boring style.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 85 of 154 | 55% | 104 of 180 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:53 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 44 of 108 | 40% | 44 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 17 of 31 | 54% | 17 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:07 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 13 of 29 | 44% | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 22 of 41 | 53% | 38 of 64 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:43 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 46 of 82 | 56% | 49 of 85 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 0 | 22 of 51 | 43% | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 85 of 154 | 55% | 52 of 121 | 11 of 11 | 22 of 22 | 74 of 137 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 13 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 44 of 108 | 40% | 38 of 102 | 5 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 44 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 17 of 31 | 54% | 5 of 19 | 5 of 5 | 7 of 7 | 16 of 30 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 13 of 29 | 44% | 11 of 27 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 13 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 22 of 41 | 53% | 12 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 8 | 18 of 37 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 9 of 28 | 32% | 7 of 26 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 28 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 46 of 82 | 56% | 35 of 71 | 4 of 4 | 7 of 7 | 40 of 70 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 10 |
| Blagoy Ivanov | 22 of 51 | 43% | 20 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Blagoy Ivanov but with hesitation, contingent on Romanov's weight cut. He notes Romanov's recent poor performances and lack of cardio, while Ivanov has an iron chin and solid takedown defense. He plans to wait for weigh-ins: if Romanov looks in shape, he'll switch to Romanov; if not, he'll bet Ivanov. He mentions Ivanov at +125.
Big Brady picks Blagoy Ivanov to win by third-round finish, but is very hesitant. He notes Romanov has cardio issues and looked terrible at weigh-ins for his last fight, gassing after one minute. Ivanov is extremely durable, has never been knocked out, and has gone to decision in all seven UFC fights. Brady says he needs to see Romanov's weigh-ins to have a stronger opinion, but if Ivanov survives the first round, he should take over and possibly finish late.
Cody is torn on Romanov. He notes Romanov's potential and wrestling, but his poor cardio and questionable heart after the Volkov loss. He thinks if Romanov comes in shape, he can take Ivanov down and win early rounds. However, Ivanov is extremely durable and has never been finished. Cody suggests waiting for weigh-ins and considering live betting.
Daniel picks Ivanov pre-weigh-ins due to Romanov's inconsistency and weight issues. He notes Romanov's drastic weight fluctuation (239 to 264 lbs) and his tendency to quit after failed takedowns. Ivanov is durable, has a 70% takedown defense, and has been competitive in all his losses. However, Daniel reserves the right to change his pick if Romanov weighs in lean (239 lbs). He calls it a 'wait for weigh-ins' situation.
Paul picks Ivanov, citing his durability and proven ability to go 15 minutes. He notes Romanov has never shown he can fight past the second round without gassing. Ivanov has gone the distance with top heavyweights and has good grappling. Paul thinks Romanov's cardio and mental toughness are major question marks, and Ivanov will outlast him.
The Guru picks Alexander Romanov but expresses hesitation due to Romanov's terrible performance against Alexander Volkov, where he gave up after a stuffed takedown. However, he believes Romanov can out-grapple Blagoy Ivanov, who is fat and unathletic, using his signature forearm choke. He uses MMA algebra: Romanov outgrappled Tybura, who outgrappled Ivanov. He notes Ivanov is not adding new wrinkles and is aging.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 0 | 12 of 15 | 80% | 27 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:03 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Volkov | 12 of 15 | 80% | 8 of 11 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Romanov (-150), Volkov (+130)
Round 1
There is no truth to the rumor that only one man will keep the name Alexander after this heavyweight co-main event comes to a close. In this classic style matchup, striker Volkov (35-10, 9-4 UFC) will collide with grappler Romanov (16-1, 5-1 UFC), and the two are so young in the division that they have at least five more years left in them, if not 10. The battle between “Drago” and “King Kong” will be joined in the cage by referee Mark Smith, who will keep things above board for as long as they need. The two are happy to tangle tonight, and they bump fists together. Volkov pushes the pace immediately, and Romanov greets him with a charging takedown. Volkov defends as he gets pushed from one side of the cage to the other, as Romanov changes up for a single. Volkov clearly and obviously grabs the fence to stay upright, and Romanov stays clung to the left leg until bailing on it to back off. Volkov cracks him with a few punches, and he works the body and scores a right hand that hurts “King Kong.” Romanov tries to take the fight down again, and Volkov moves around deftly to get a hook in and take Romanov’s back. Volkov drills the downed fighter with several vicious undercuts -- uppercuts sneaking beneath his opponent's armpit -- busting up Romanov’s nose and causing blood to spray all over the floor.
Volkov pours it on with punches, and Smith takes a hard look at the action and tells Romanov he needs to fight back. Volkov lets Romanov sit up, and he frees his left hand to belt the Moldovan upside the head. The Russian continues his bombardment of punches, and Smith has no choice but to step in.
Volkov has prevailed in the all-Alexander battle, making short work of the heavier Romanov to earn his second first-round knockout in a row – a first for "Drago" since 2014.
The Official Result
Alexander Volkov def. Alexander Romanov R1 2:16 via TKO (Punches)
Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.
Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.
Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.
Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.
I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.
Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.
Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 0 | 47 of 98 | 47% | 82 of 135 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 40 of 88 | 45% | 95 of 160 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 1 | 5:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 14 of 18 | 77% | 64 of 81 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 4:27 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 17 of 36 | 47% | 50 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:48 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 11 of 25 | 44% | 16 of 34 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:35 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 0 | 30 of 59 | 50% | 31 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 15 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcin Tybura | 47 of 98 | 47% | 30 of 74 | 10 of 17 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 92 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 40 of 88 | 45% | 24 of 65 | 7 of 12 | 9 of 11 | 21 of 65 | 9 of 12 | 10 of 11 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marcin Tybura | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 14 of 18 | 77% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 9 | |
| 2 | Marcin Tybura | 17 of 36 | 47% | 10 of 28 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 11 of 25 | 44% | 9 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | |
| 3 | Marcin Tybura | 30 of 59 | 50% | 20 of 43 | 6 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 29 of 57 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Alexandr Romanov | 15 of 45 | 33% | 7 of 33 | 5 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 42 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov over Marcin Tybura. He describes Romanov as a massive, athletic wrestler with a Brock Lesnar style, while Tybura is a durable grinder with okay striking and trips. Angelo acknowledges concerns: Romanov hasn't fought top-20 opponents and was taken down four times by Juan Espino. However, he believes Romanov is too big, fast, and athletic for Tybura, and that Tybura won't get close enough to land his trips. He has moneyline bets on Romanov.
Big Brady picks Alexandr Romanov but is hesitant. He notes that Romanov struggled with cardio against Juan Espino, but looked in incredible shape against Chase Sherman. Tybura is a tough grappler with good takedown defense and cardio. Brady expects Romanov to get takedowns and win the first two rounds, but concerns about the third round remain. He predicts Romanov wins by decision, though Tybura could have success late if Romanov slows down.
Cody picks Romanov, noting his wrestling and athleticism. He mentions Romanov's training at Tiger Muay Thai and his improved cardio. He thinks Tybura is trending downward and Romanov should win, but he won't put him at the top of his parlay due to heavyweight volatility.
Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov to win, though he acknowledges there is no value on the line at -360. He believes Romanov is a much better athlete and more explosive than Tybura, and that Romanov will get takedowns and grind out a win. He notes that Romanov looked significantly leaner after the Juan Espino fight and seems to be taking his career more seriously. Levi respects Tybura's experience and methodical striking but thinks Romanov's wrestling will be the difference.
Romanov should win via grappling and top pressure, likely finishing within two rounds. However, Tybura is live as a dog with good BJJ and takedown defense. The host compares this to the David Onama fight last week, warning against laying heavy chalk on finish-reliant fighters. He is not betting this fight due to the risk.
Paul picks Romanov, citing his wrestling advantage and improved striking. He notes Romanov's cardio concerns but thinks he can get the job done. He likes Romanov over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks.
The Guru predicts Alexandr Romanov wins by first-round TKO. He describes Romanov slamming lead leg kicks and inside leg kicks, then backing Tybura against the cage and landing a clean right overhand that rocks him. He sees Romanov finishing with ground and pound after a takedown.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 8 of 14 | 57% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 1:58 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 8 of 14 | 57% | 8 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 14 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Romanov as a lock, expecting him to steamroll Sherman. He highlights Romanov's incredible wrestling, speed, and power, and notes Sherman lacks one-punch KO power to stop Romanov's takedowns. He mentions Romanov was a -2500 favorite initially and recommends using him in parlays if the odds are reasonable.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Romanov, calling it a huge mismatch. He notes Romanov's undefeated record and finishing ability, while Sherman is a low-level opponent. He predicts a first-round finish by TKO or submission, as Romanov will take the fight down and end it quickly.
Cody agrees Romanov is a lock, noting Sherman's poor grappling and recent losses. He thinks Romanov will take him down and finish, likely by submission or ground and pound. Cody mentions the only potential issues are a DQ or Sherman landing a lucky shot, but considers those unlikely. He plans to use Romanov in DFS lineups.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate Chase Sherman. He expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish quickly, noting Sherman's poor head movement and susceptibility to being hit. Levi calls the line unplayable due to the heavy favorite price and advises against betting on Sherman.
The host picks Romanov with high confidence, citing his dominant wrestling and ground-and-pound. He notes Sherman was submitted by Jake Collier, and Romanov is a much better grappler. Romanov's cardio has improved, and he will take Sherman down and finish him. The only path for Sherman is a lucky knockout, but Romanov's chin is durable.
Paul is extremely confident Romanov wins, calling it a smash. He notes Romanov's improved physique and cardio, and that Sherman has poor grappling and was submitted by Jake Collier. Paul expects Romanov to take Sherman down and finish him, likely by TKO or submission. He mentions the only risks are a DQ or injury, but otherwise Romanov should dominate.
The Guru picks Romanov to win by first-round TKO (ground and pound). He believes Romanov will easily take Sherman down and dominate on the ground, as Sherman lacks the grappling to deal with him. The Guru thinks Romanov may want to punish Sherman for pulling out of their previous fight, so he will opt for a TKO rather than a submission. He predicts a first-round finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 56 of 78 | 71% | 78 of 103 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 0 | 0 | 6:31 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 19 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 9 of 20 | 45% | 10 of 21 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 13 of 21 | 61% | 16 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 47 of 58 | 81% | 68 of 82 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:26 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 56 of 78 | 71% | 48 of 66 | 6 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 56 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 23 | 56% | 4 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 19 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 9 of 20 | 45% | 6 of 13 | 1 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 13 of 21 | 61% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 10 of 17 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 47 of 58 | 81% | 42 of 53 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 45 of 56 |
| Jared Vanderaa | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Alexandr Romanov but feels it's a trap at minus 400. He notes Romanov's wrestling and power but recalls his less dominant performance against Juan Espino. He bet the over 1.5 rounds at plus money and the more more on Monkey Knife Fight, expecting the fight to last past the first round and a half.
Big Brady is very confident in Romanov, highlighting his incredible wrestling strength and ability to take down and finish opponents. He notes Vanderaa has 0% takedown defense and was easily taken down by Sergey Spivak. Brady believes Romanov is stronger and more dangerous on top, and predicts a second-round finish, either by submission or knockout. He sees no path to victory for Vanderaa except Romanov gassing out.
Cody picks Romanov but expresses concerns about his cardio and ring IQ. He notes Romanov's athleticism and sumo background, but worries about his training situation in Moldova. He expects Romanov to take Vanderaa down and finish early, but if it goes past the first round, Vanderaa's improved striking and cardio could be a problem.
Daniel Levi is confident Alexandr Romanov will dominate with takedowns and finish Vanderaa on the mat, likely by submission or ground and pound. He notes Vanderaa's toughness and volume but believes he lacks the grappling to compete. His only concern is Romanov's cardio if he expends too much energy early, but he still expects a finish.
Jacob picks Romanov but agrees it feels like a trap. He thinks Romanov should dominate but wouldn't touch the minus 400. He likes the over 1.5 rounds bet and will play it with Angelo. He notes Romanov's terrifying ground and pound but thinks Jared Vanderaa is tough enough to withstand early attacks.
The host picks Romanov but with hesitation due to his questionable gas tank. He notes that if Romanov doesn't get an early finish, he could fade, and Vanderaa has a grappling background and good cardio. He compares Romanov to Spivak, who beat Vanderaa, but acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues. He predicts a second-round TKO for Romanov but plans to hedge with Vanderaa props.
Paul picks Romanov, noting Vanderaa's lack of elite skills. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues and questionable performance against Espino, but believes Vanderaa is a step down in competition. He expects Romanov to get takedowns and grind out a win, though the price is steep.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by first-round submission via forearm choke. He believes Romanov's grappling is superior to Vanderaa's, citing Vanderaa's loss to Sergey Spivak. He notes Romanov's takedown ability and finishing threat.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 32 of 53 | 60% | 53 of 77 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 5:41 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 12 of 22 | 54% | 44 of 56 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 5 of 9 | 55% | 14 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 20 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:28 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 27 of 44 | 61% | 38 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 3:20 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 21 of 30 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Juan Espino | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 3 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:42 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexandr Romanov | 32 of 53 | 60% | 23 of 44 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 8 of 20 | 6 of 6 | 18 of 27 |
| Juan Espino | 12 of 22 | 54% | 8 of 17 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 3 | 7 of 17 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexandr Romanov | 5 of 9 | 55% | 0 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 5 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Juan Espino | 4 of 6 | 66% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Alexandr Romanov | 27 of 44 | 61% | 23 of 40 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 27 |
| Juan Espino | 6 of 13 | 46% | 5 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Alexandr Romanov | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Juan Espino | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Juan Espino to win by submission, but with very low confidence. He sees the fight as a 50/50 matchup and sides with the dog due to hype driving Romanov's line. He notes that both fighters are grapplers and that Romanov is unlikely to submit Espino, a legit black belt. He questions Romanov's cardio and believes Espino may have the edge if the fight goes past the first round. He is passing on betting due to the uncertainty but picks Espino to weather the storm and possibly get a late submission.
Cody is a Romanov fan and thinks he has better cardio, boxing, and youth (10 years younger). He notes Romanov's cardio looks good in deeper fights, while Espino has only fought 3 minutes in the last 3 years. He believes Romanov can stuff takedowns and win by pressure. He acknowledges Espino's BJJ but thinks Romanov's wrestling and gas tank will be the difference.
Daniel Levi picks Alexandr Romanov, stating that he is a future top-15 heavyweight and is being undervalued. He criticizes Juan Espino's competition on The Ultimate Fighter, calling it weak. Levi believes Romanov is more well-rounded and will win the wrestling and clinch battles, possibly finishing Espino. He also notes that Espino is 40 years old and Romanov has a higher ceiling.
Manpreet favors Romanov, citing his youth, cardio, and wrestling pressure. He notes that Espino is 40 years old and has fought weak competition, while Romanov has shown he can grind opponents down over three rounds. He believes Romanov's explosiveness and strength will overwhelm Espino, likely leading to a TKO in the second round.
Paul thinks Espino is a legitimate BJJ black belt with good wrestling and a complete game. He notes that Romanov has a hole in his leg kick defense but Espino doesn't throw leg kicks. He is leaning towards Espino but not confident, calling it a dog or pass fight. He mentions that Espino's age (40) and lack of recent octagon time are concerns.
The MMA Guru picks Alexandr Romanov to win by second-round TKO via ground and pound, but calls it risky. He notes Romanov is younger, undefeated, and has more localized weight for grappling. He expects Romanov to stuff takedowns and use kicks to the body and legs, then take over in the second round after Espino has an adrenaline dump. He does not see Romanov submitting Espino.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Alexander Romanov, believing his wrestling will be the key against Volkov. He notes that Volkov has only lost to top contenders and that Tom Aspinall had success taking him down. He is hopeful for improved cardio from Romanov after his loss at elevation. He considers betting on Romanov since the line is even.
Big Brady picks Alexander Romanov, noting he will have many opportunities to take down Volkov, who has poor get-up game. He acknowledges Romanov's cardio is a major concern but thinks Romanov will finish early via submission or TKO. Brady says if Romanov had cardio for three rounds he'd max bet him, but still expects a first-round sub.
Cody picks Romanov but with low confidence, acknowledging Romanov's cardio issues and Volkov's size. He thinks Romanov can use takedowns and cage pressure to neutralize Volkov's striking, but is not sure Romanov has improved his cardio. He suggests live betting Volkov if Romanov tires after the first round.
Connor picks Volkov despite acknowledging he will likely get taken down early. He notes Volkov's durability, ability to get back up, and tendency to outlast opponents who gas. Connor points out that Romanov was exposed against Tabora, showing poor cardio, and that Volkov has a history of finishing tired opponents. However, he admits it's a risky pick given Volkov's poor takedown defense and Romanov's power.
I lean towards Romanov's early takedown and ground control. His strength and wrestling should get Volkov down early, and from there he can work to a dominant position and find a submission. Volkov's takedown defense has been exploited by strong grapplers before. However, if Volkov survives the early onslaught, his striking could take over later. I see Romanov winning by submission in the first round.
Paul picks Volkov as an underdog, citing Romanov's poor cardio and tendency to fade after the first round. He notes Romanov's impressive first-round wrestling but doubts he can maintain it for three rounds. Paul suggests live betting Volkov after the first round if Romanov tires.
The MMA Guru picks Alexander Romanov, despite Volkov being the underdog. He believes Romanov's grappling style can be effective against Volkov, who struggles when flat on his back. He notes Romanov's top heaviness and ability to pass guard, and predicts a forearm choke finish. He acknowledges Volkov's striking advantage but thinks Romanov can get the fight to the ground and control it.
Zane picks Romanov, citing the three-round format and Romanov's powerful takedowns. He notes that Volkov has poor takedown defense and will likely be taken down early. Zane acknowledges Romanov's cardio issues after the Tabora fight but believes he can overwhelm Volkov in the first two rounds. He admits it's a risky pick and that Volkov could outlast him.
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