Career Averages - Mario Bautista
Career Averages - Guido Cannetti
Mario Bautista
Guido Cannetti
Mario Bautista - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 49 of 63 | 5 of 7 | 71% | 1 | 0 | 5:47 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 18 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 22 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:18 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 8 | 75% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:39 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 27 of 34 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 1 | 0 | 3:29 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 0 | 6 of 13 | 46% | 10 of 17 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 15 of 27 | 55% | 10 of 20 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 2 | 9 of 13 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 12 of 21 | 57% | 3 of 10 | 3 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 9 of 18 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 9 | 33% | 1 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 5 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 8 | 75% | 0 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Vinicius Oliveira | 6 of 13 | 46% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, believing he is the better technical fighter with cleaner striking and better wrestling. He acknowledges Vinicius Oliveira's insane pace but thinks Bautista can match it and fight for 25 minutes. He notes that Bautista's last fight against Umar Nurmagomedov was close and impressive, and he expects Bautista to go dog for dog with Oliveira and come out on top.
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista, citing his superior grappling and cardio. He notes that Vinicius Oliveira has shown vulnerability on the ground, as seen in his fight against Bernardo Sopai. Bautista hasn't used his grappling recently due to tough opponents, but Brady expects him to take Oliveira down and submit him in the third round.
Cody picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, comparing him to Carlos Prates and Alex Pereira for his pressure and power. He argues Oliveira's constant forward pressure and size will overwhelm Bautista, who lacks one-shot power. Cody believes Oliveira's momentum and damage output will sway judges, especially in the Apex where damage is prioritized.
Connor agrees with Zane, citing Bautista's technical lockdown and ability to handle pressure. He compares Oliveira to Dricus du Plessis in terms of being a 'vibes fighter' who can overwhelm opponents, but believes Bautista's scrambling and experience against elite pressure (like Aldo) give him the edge. He notes Oliveira's tendency to get tired and be hittable.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista to win inside the distance, likely by submission in the championship rounds. He emphasizes Bautista's superior cardio and pace, especially in a five-round fight, and notes that Oliveira has been finished in all his losses. James believes Oliveira will gas out in rounds 4-5, allowing Bautista to take over and secure a finish.
The host picks Bautista inside the distance, likely in round 4. He believes Bautista's fight IQ, cardio, and game planning will allow him to contain Oliveira's reckless aggression and take over as Oliveira gasses. He notes Bautista can match Oliveira's violence and has a cardio edge, and expects him to find a finish in the later rounds.
Paul picks Mario Bautista, citing concerns about Oliveira's gas tank in a five-round fight. He notes Bautista's durability and ability to control the cage, similar to his fight against Jose Aldo. Paul expects Bautista to stick to a game plan and potentially win by decision, suggesting live betting on Bautista in later rounds.
The host picks Mario Bautista over Vinicius Oliveira. He thinks Oliveira is a size bully with sloppy technique, and Bautista is equally big but technically superior. He notes Bautista's pace and pressure, and his performance against Ricky Simon was more impressive than Oliveira's. He predicts a 4-1 decision win for Bautista.
Zane leans toward Bautista because of his proven ability to handle pressure fighters, as seen in his win over Jose Aldo. He notes that Oliveira is dangerous but reckless, often getting hurt in fights, and Bautista's scrambling and timing should allow him to capitalize. However, he acknowledges Oliveira's physicality and durability could make it a war.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 32 of 54 | 59% | 81 of 105 | 11 of 14 | 78% | 0 | 0 | 10:46 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 20 of 54 | 37% | 33 of 67 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 32 of 34 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:37 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 12 of 21 | 57% | 29 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:02 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 | 9 of 28 | 32% | 14 of 33 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 20 of 32 | 7 of 9 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 3:07 |
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 10 of 25 | 40% | 11 of 26 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Umar Nurmagomedov | 32 of 54 | 59% | 24 of 44 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 23 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 8 |
| Mario Bautista | 20 of 54 | 37% | 6 of 37 | 11 of 14 | 3 of 3 | 17 of 50 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 5 of 6 | 83% | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 6 |
| Mario Bautista | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 12 of 21 | 57% | 10 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Mario Bautista | 9 of 28 | 32% | 3 of 19 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 8 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Umar Nurmagomedov | 15 of 27 | 55% | 9 of 20 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 11 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 2 of 2 |
| Mario Bautista | 10 of 25 | 40% | 3 of 18 | 6 of 6 | 1 of 1 | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Umar Nurmagomedov, arguing he won the first two rounds against Merab before breaking his hand. He believes Umar's range management, wrestling, and cardio will be too much for Mario Bautista, who has benefited from fighting older or less active opponents. Angelo is confident Umar wins a three-round fight.
Big Brady is extremely confident in Umar Nurmagomedov, calling him the second-best bantamweight in the UFC. He believes Umar is superior in striking, wrestling, and grappling, and expects him to take down Bautista, get to his back, and submit him. Brady notes Bautista has been finished in both losses and that Umar needs a statement to earn a title shot. He predicts a second-round submission.
Cody picks Umar Nurmagomedov despite the steep -625 price, citing his wrestling and striking superiority. He notes that Umar took down Merab and Sandhagen multiple times, and Bautista has been taken down by lesser wrestlers. Cody believes Umar will win the first two rounds and hold on in the third, with the Abu Dhabi crowd favoring him. He also mentions that Bautista's path to victory likely requires a KO, which is unlikely.
Connor also picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his superior striking fundamentals and fight IQ. He notes Bautista's tendency to start slow or fade, and believes Umar's ability to control range and pace will be decisive. Connor thinks Bautista will be competitive but ultimately outworked over three rounds.
Daniel Vreeland is hesitant due to the steep odds (-625) and Bautista's eight-fight win streak, but he believes Umar's wrestling and the Abu Dhabi advantage will secure a decision. He notes that Bautista struggles to finish higher-level opponents and that a Nurmagomedov won't lose a decision in Abu Dhabi. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation but picks Umar.
Lucrative James picks Umar Nurmagomedov confidently, stating he is better in all realms of MMA: striking, wrestling, and grappling. He believes Mario Bautista is a level below and that Umar's kicks, footwork, and takedowns will be too much. He expects Umar to win by 30-27 decision or rear-naked choke submission, and notes that Umar has been in Abu Dhabi for a month to acclimatize. He also mentions improvements in Umar's cardio after the Merab loss.
The host thinks Nurmagomedov has Bautista covered everywhere but expects the fight to be closer than the odds indicate. He mentions a small shot on Bautista for some people but officially picks Nurmagomedov by decision.
Paul leans Umar but is hesitant due to the price. He notes that Bautista is rock solid and capable of giving anyone a good fight, and that the line should be closer to -225. However, he acknowledges Umar's competitive performance against Merab and his wrestling advantage. Paul suggests that if Bautista wins, it would likely require a KO, and points out the plus 1800 line on Bautista KO as a potential fun bet.
The MMA Guru picks Umar Nurmagomedov by decision, expecting a 30-27 or 29-28 win. He believes Umar's flicky kicks and takedowns will give Mario Bautista problems, and that Bautista's recent wins (over Patchy Mix, Damon Blackshear) have aged poorly. He notes that Umar gave Merab Dvalishvili a tough fight and nearly beat him, while Bautista is not at that level. He predicts Umar will drag Bautista down against the cage and control the fight, though Bautista may have a good round.
Zane picks Nurmagomedov, praising his technical striking, feints, and well-rounded game. He believes Bautista's pressure style will struggle against Umar's disciplined jab and distance management. Zane notes Bautista's scrambling ability but thinks Umar's consistency over three rounds will secure the win, though he wishes it were five rounds.
This fight was originally scheduled but Chito Vera dropped out. The matchup was replaced with Mario Bautista vs Patchy Mix. Angelo does not discuss the original matchup at all, so no pick is made.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 173 of 302 | 57% | 173 of 302 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 122 of 304 | 40% | 122 of 304 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 43 of 91 | 47% | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 36 of 74 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 103 | 63% | 65 of 103 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 59 of 111 | 53% | 59 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 65 of 108 | 60% | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Patchy Mix | 0 | 27 of 119 | 22% | 27 of 119 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 173 of 302 | 57% | 96 of 216 | 58 of 66 | 19 of 20 | 172 of 301 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 122 of 304 | 40% | 92 of 265 | 14 of 22 | 16 of 17 | 118 of 299 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 43 of 91 | 47% | 18 of 60 | 18 of 24 | 7 of 7 | 43 of 91 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 36 of 74 | 48% | 22 of 58 | 5 of 7 | 9 of 9 | 35 of 73 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 103 | 63% | 42 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 3 of 4 | 64 of 102 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 59 of 111 | 53% | 49 of 96 | 5 of 9 | 5 of 6 | 56 of 108 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 65 of 108 | 60% | 36 of 78 | 20 of 21 | 9 of 9 | 65 of 108 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Patchy Mix | 27 of 119 | 22% | 21 of 111 | 4 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 27 of 118 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Patchy Mix despite Mario Bautista's seven-fight win streak. He notes Patchy is a dangerous grappler with 13 submission wins, but is one-dimensional. He thinks if Mario defends takedowns, he can win striking exchanges. However, he is influenced by Josh Thompson's confidence in Patchy and believes Mario's win over Aldo was a bad decision, so MMA karma may favor Patchy.
Big Brady picks Patchy Mix, citing his elite grappling and guillotine. He believes Mix will get Bautista down and stay there, eventually finding a submission. He questions Bautista's resume, noting close fights against Blackshear and Aldo, and thinks there is a levels difference in grappling. He predicts Mix by second-round submission.
Connor picks Patchy Mix, believing his elite grappling and ability to take Bautista down early and control him will be decisive. He acknowledges Bautista's scrambling is excellent but thinks Mix's positional grappling and backpacking style can neutralize Bautista's pressure. Connor admits it's a tough fight and Bautista could win if Mix fades.
Bautista is expected to shut down Mix's grappling game and then outstrike him on the feet, showcasing that he is the better striker. He will put together more damage and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Patchy Mix to finish Mario Bautista, citing Mix's impressive resume including wins over Horiguchi, Magomedov, and Pettis. He believes Mix is in his prime and has too much finishing potential. He predicts Mix will drop Bautista and submit him with a guillotine or anaconda choke in the first or second round. He criticizes Bautista's performance against Aldo.
Zane picks Mario Bautista, citing his relentless pressure, excellent scrambling, and ability to win fights even after being taken down. He notes that Bautista's takedown defense is not great but he is a brilliant scrambler who wears opponents down. Zane thinks Mix's low output striking and reliance on takedowns may not be enough to keep Bautista off him for three rounds.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 90 of 174 | 51% | 108 of 192 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 3:00 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 79 of 137 | 57% | 102 of 161 | 2 of 10 | 20% | 1 | 0 | 4:04 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 29 of 48 | 60% | 38 of 57 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 2:28 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 19 of 25 | 76% | 27 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:19 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 40 of 74 | 54% | 44 of 78 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:27 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 32 of 67 | 47% | 34 of 69 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:01 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 52 | 40% | 26 of 57 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:05 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 0 | 28 of 45 | 62% | 41 of 59 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 90 of 174 | 51% | 48 of 123 | 22 of 30 | 20 of 21 | 52 of 129 | 37 of 42 | 1 of 3 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 79 of 137 | 57% | 48 of 103 | 21 of 22 | 10 of 12 | 51 of 101 | 24 of 30 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 29 of 48 | 60% | 11 of 27 | 11 of 14 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 28 | 15 of 18 | 1 of 2 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 19 of 25 | 76% | 11 of 17 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 13 of 18 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 40 of 74 | 54% | 25 of 54 | 7 of 11 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 56 | 17 of 18 | 0 of 0 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 32 of 67 | 47% | 22 of 55 | 8 of 9 | 2 of 3 | 21 of 53 | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 52 | 40% | 12 of 42 | 4 of 5 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 45 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 1 |
| Da'Mon Blackshear | 28 of 45 | 62% | 15 of 31 | 10 of 10 | 3 of 4 | 17 of 30 | 7 of 9 | 4 of 6 |
Big Brady picks Mario Bautista to win by first-round knockout, despite hating the line. He notes Bautista has been dominating on the ground but doubts he can take down and submit Cody Garbrandt, who has excellent takedown defense. Instead, Brady believes Bautista will knock Garbrandt out on the feet, as Garbrandt's chin is compromised and he fights cautiously.
Cody thinks Bautista is the better fighter with superior wrestling and striking, but notes Blackshear is durable and has never been finished. He expects Bautista to win a decision, possibly fading in later rounds. He suggests live betting Blackshear after the first round if Bautista starts fast.
Daniel Levi slightly leans toward Mario Bautista, citing his body work, aggression, and pace. He thinks Bautista's pressure will pull him away in the second and third rounds, leading to a decision win. However, he acknowledges that Blackshear is a live dog with plus money, and that the quick turnaround for Blackshear could be a factor. Levi calls it a dog-or-pass situation and respects Blackshear's skills.
Lucrative James picks Mario Bautista but with hesitation, citing Blackshear's tough weight cut twice in two weeks and Bautista's high pace. He admits he has been wrong on Blackshear twice before, so he is not fully confident. He expects a decision win for Bautista.
Guido Cannetti - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 1 | 0 | 2:36 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 5 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 3 of 4 | 75% | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.
Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.
Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.
Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.
Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.
Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.
Zane picks Bautista but is less confident than the odds suggest. He notes that Cannetti is a fast, powerful starter who could catch Bautista early, but Bautista's pressure and durability should take over as Cannetti fades. He compares it to Chandler vs Hooker, where either could win early but Bautista has the edge over time.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 8 of 13 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Randy Costa | 0 | 2 of 7 | 28% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 1 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 5 | 8 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Randy Costa | 2 of 7 | 28% | 0 of 3 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Cody picks Randy Costa to win, citing his striking and power. He notes that Costa has looked good in recent fights and that Cannetti is 42 and has durability issues. He expects an early finish and likes the under 2.5 rounds. He also sees value in Guido Cannetti as a live underdog if Costa fades.
Paul picks Randy Costa to win, but is not confident in the -300 moneyline. He expects Costa to come out fast and finish early, but acknowledges Costa's cardio issues. He is interested in props on Guido Cannetti if Costa fades. He believes the fight will not go the distance and likes the under 2.5 rounds prop.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti, believing he will knock out Randy Costa in the first round. He notes that both fighters fade after the first round, but Cannetti has power and Costa has a weak chin. He calls Costa 'wolf tickets' and criticizes the -300 price on Costa, saying anyone betting that has a gambling addiction. He expects a first-round KO from Cannetti.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 30 | 36% | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Kris Moutinho | 0 | 28 of 44 | 63% | 28 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 30 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 44 | 63% | 18 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 11 of 30 | 36% | 8 of 24 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 11 of 30 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Kris Moutinho | 28 of 44 | 63% | 18 of 31 | 5 of 7 | 5 of 6 | 21 of 37 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Kris Moutinho due to his durability, noting that he absorbed 230 strikes against Sean O'Malley and kept coming. He acknowledges that Guido Cannetti is a technical striker but aging, and that Moutinho is young and tough. However, he admits he has no strong read on this fight and that Cannetti could win a decision.
Big Brady hesitantly picks Kris Moutinho, citing Moutinho's youth (13 years younger), height and reach advantage, and better cardio. He acknowledges Cannetti is the better fighter but only has one round of cardio at 42 years old. He expects Moutinho to walk forward, eat punches, and take over late to win a close, greasy decision. He is not betting this fight, especially with Moutinho as a favorite.
Cody leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
Daniel Levi picks Kris Moutinho, noting that Guido Cannetti is 43 years old and gasses out past the first round. He believes Moutinho's durability and volume will break Cannetti down, likely winning a decision. Levi acknowledges that Moutinho is not the best but thinks this matchup favors him against an aging opponent.
Moutinho is expected to land crisper shots down the middle and win via decision. However, the fight is highly volatile with many possible outcomes. Cannetti has leg kicks and power, but Moutinho's durability is a question. The host is not betting this fight due to volatility.
Paul leans Moutinho, citing his youth and pressure. He notes Cannetti's age and suspect gas tank. He believes Moutinho's forward pressure will overwhelm Cannetti.
The MMA Guru picks Guido Cannetti as an underdog over Kris Moutinho, believing Moutinho is 'garbage at fighting' despite his name value from the Sean O'Malley fight. He highlights Cannetti's underrated skills, including dominating Marlon Vera in the first round of their fight. He expects a grinding fight where Cannetti uses his grappling to take Moutinho down and win by TKO or submission. He plans to wait for better odds as money comes in on Moutinho.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leomana Martinez | 0 | 79 of 157 | 50% | 88 of 169 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 1:07 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 66 of 109 | 60% | 68 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:28 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leomana Martinez | 0 | 19 of 32 | 59% | 21 of 35 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:14 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 27 of 37 | 72% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:28 | |
| 2 | Leomana Martinez | 0 | 24 of 51 | 47% | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 23 of 40 | 57% | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Leomana Martinez | 0 | 36 of 74 | 48% | 43 of 83 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 16 of 32 | 50% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Leomana Martinez | 79 of 157 | 50% | 35 of 98 | 31 of 44 | 13 of 15 | 72 of 147 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Guido Cannetti | 66 of 109 | 60% | 21 of 57 | 13 of 19 | 32 of 33 | 64 of 105 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 3 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Leomana Martinez | 19 of 32 | 59% | 8 of 20 | 8 of 8 | 3 of 4 | 19 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Guido Cannetti | 27 of 37 | 72% | 5 of 11 | 6 of 9 | 16 of 17 | 25 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 3 | |
| 2 | Leomana Martinez | 24 of 51 | 47% | 8 of 29 | 11 of 16 | 5 of 6 | 24 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Guido Cannetti | 23 of 40 | 57% | 8 of 22 | 4 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 23 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Leomana Martinez | 36 of 74 | 48% | 19 of 49 | 12 of 20 | 5 of 5 | 29 of 64 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 6 |
| Guido Cannetti | 16 of 32 | 50% | 8 of 24 | 3 of 3 | 5 of 5 | 16 of 31 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Martinez, citing his solid power, aggression, and constant stance switches that complicate things for opponents. He notes Cannetti is over 40, losing by stoppage, and needs to get the fight to the ground to win, which is unlikely. The only concern is Martinez's headspace after his coach died, but he still sees a mismatch.
Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his power in both hands and aggressive style. He notes that Cannetti is 41 years old, has been knocked out multiple times, and looked old in his last fight. Cody thinks Martinez's takedown defense is solid and that he will knock Cannetti out early, likely in round one.
Jacob picks Martinez, emphasizing his power that hits like a middleweight and Cannetti's flat-footed movement and age. He expects Martinez to dominate and likely flatline Cannetti inside two and a half minutes. He plans to bet on a first-round stoppage for better odds.
Lock picks Martinez by KO at -110, expecting a violent fight. He notes both fighters have finishing ability and poor cardio, leading to an early finish. Lock likes the under 1.5 rounds and fight doesn't go to decision props. He thinks Martinez's power and durability give him the edge, but acknowledges Cannetti can crack too.
Paul picks Martinez, agreeing that he has power and that Cannetti is old and faded. He notes Martinez's wins over Ricky Turcios and Jose Johnson, showing he can finish good opponents. Paul thinks Martinez's takedown defense will keep the fight standing and lead to a knockout. He also likes the under 2.5 rounds and Martinez inside the distance.
The Guru picks Mana Martinez, citing his youth, momentum, and knockout power against the older Guido Cannetti, who is coming off a KO loss. He expects Martinez to start fast and finish by TKO in the first round. The Guru notes Cannetti's age (41) and history of being finished as key factors.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danaa Batgerel | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danaa Batgerel | 1 | 17 of 33 | 51% | 17 of 33 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 11 of 23 | 47% | 11 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danaa Batgerel | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 23 | 47% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Danaa Batgerel | 17 of 33 | 51% | 16 of 29 | 0 of 2 | 1 of 2 | 12 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Guido Cannetti | 11 of 23 | 47% | 0 of 7 | 3 of 6 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 21 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Daniel picks Danaa Batgerel to win, but with caution. He notes that Cannetti is explosive in the first round but tends to fade if he faces adversity. He believes Batgerel can take over in the second and third rounds and win a decision, but it's contingent on him not getting badly hurt in the first.
Both fighters are aggressive strikers; Batgerel is more technical, Cannetti is a brawler. The fight likely ends inside the distance. The host prefers betting under 2.5 rounds at plus money rather than picking a side. He picks Cannetti by TKO but is not confident enough to bet the moneyline.
The MMA Guru picks Danaa Batgerel based on his better UFC record (6-2) and youth advantage over the 40-year-old Guido Cannetti. He notes Cannetti is smaller with less reach and questions why he is still fighting at his age. He expects Batgerel to get the job done with his Asian power moves.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 37 of 56 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:48 |
| Guido Cannetti | 1 | 24 of 35 | 68% | 36 of 48 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 1:21 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 21 of 35 | 60% | 34 of 49 | 2 of 4 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:32 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 20 of 26 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:53 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 3 of 7 | 42% | 3 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 |
| Guido Cannetti | 1 | 16 of 22 | 72% | 16 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 0:28 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 24 of 42 | 57% | 11 of 25 | 8 of 10 | 5 of 7 | 8 of 23 | 8 of 11 | 8 of 8 |
| Guido Cannetti | 24 of 35 | 68% | 13 of 18 | 10 of 14 | 1 of 3 | 3 of 10 | 17 of 19 | 4 of 6 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 21 of 35 | 60% | 9 of 19 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 6 | 6 of 19 | 7 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Guido Cannetti | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 of 3 | 7 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 3 of 7 | 42% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Guido Cannetti | 16 of 22 | 72% | 13 of 15 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 1 | 2 of 7 | 11 of 11 | 3 of 4 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
Vera pushes Cannetti backward with a body kick, but the “Ninja” comes back at Vera with a Thai clinch and a knee to the body. Vera turns the tables with a quick takedown; Cannetti throws up an armbar, then jumps back on his feet when Vera lifts him for a slam. After tagging Vera with a combination, it’s Cannetti’s turn to score a takedown, slamming “Chito” to the floor at the base of the fence. Vera slowly works his way back to his feet, and the bantamweights disengage inside the three-minute mark. Vera is forced to cover up again as Cannetti blitzes him with wild punching combinations and body kicks, unconcerned with any of Vera’s attempted counters. Cannetti misses on a punch to the body, allowing Vera to wrap him up and push him to the fence. Vera stomps on Cannetti’s feet, but it’s the Argentine hitting an outside trip to put Vera on his back a second time. Cannetti spends 30 seconds trying to break Vera’s posture and find an opening for some ground-and-pound. Eventually, Cannetti stands up and kicks at the legs of Vera, keeping the Ecuadorian grounded until the end of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Ben Duffy scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Brian Knapp scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Chris Nelson scores the round 10-9 Cannetti
Round 2
Vera attacks Cannetti with clinch knees, first to the body and then one to the head that sends “Ninja” to the canvas. As Cannetti stands up and drives on Vera’s legs, the Ecuadorian sizes him up for a guillotine and jumps guard. Cannetti frees himself from the choke, but after escaping to his feet, Vera keeps him trapped on the fence to tee off with more knees and punches. Vera reaps the leg of Cannetti and trips him to the ground, then
attaches himself to Cannetti’s back with a body triangle and forces him to tap out
with a lightning fast rear-naked choke.
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Guido Cannetti via Submission (Rear-Naked Choke) R2 1:31
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 22 of 46 | 47% | 26 of 50 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 1 | 0 | 3:04 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 25 of 53 | 47% | 44 of 75 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 1 | 1 | 5:55 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 3 of 4 | 75% | 3 of 4 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 13 of 19 | 68% | 25 of 33 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:37 | |
| 2 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 6 of 8 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 4 of 6 | 66% | 11 of 14 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 3:15 | |
| 3 | Guido Cannetti | 0 | 16 of 37 | 43% | 17 of 38 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 1:44 |
| Diego Rivas | 0 | 8 of 28 | 28% | 8 of 28 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guido Cannetti | 22 of 46 | 47% | 10 of 23 | 7 of 17 | 5 of 6 | 8 of 31 | 13 of 14 | 1 of 1 |
| Diego Rivas | 25 of 53 | 47% | 12 of 35 | 6 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 10 of 32 | 7 of 12 | 8 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Guido Cannetti | 3 of 4 | 75% | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Rivas | 13 of 19 | 68% | 9 of 14 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 3 | 5 of 8 | 7 of 8 | |
| 2 | Guido Cannetti | 3 of 5 | 60% | 1 of 1 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Diego Rivas | 4 of 6 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 3 | Guido Cannetti | 16 of 37 | 43% | 9 of 22 | 5 of 12 | 2 of 3 | 6 of 26 | 10 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
| Diego Rivas | 8 of 28 | 28% | 2 of 19 | 1 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 6 of 24 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyung Ho Kang | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyung Ho Kang | 0 | 3 of 11 | 27% | 28 of 36 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 0:38 |
| Guido Cannetti | 0 | 19 of 39 | 48% | 22 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyung Ho Kang | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kyung Ho Kang | 3 of 11 | 27% | 3 of 9 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 |
| Guido Cannetti | 19 of 39 | 48% | 12 of 29 | 4 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 9 of 29 | 5 of 5 | 5 of 5 |
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo is very confident in Mario Bautista, citing his youth, speed, wrestling, and grappling advantage over the 43-year-old Guido Cannetti. He believes Bautista will win inside the distance and considers that the most valuable bet. He notes the odds are wide but thinks Bautista should be a much heavier favorite.
Big Brady is very confident in Mario Bautista, calling him the biggest favorite on the card. He notes Bautista's wrestling and grappling look really good, and Cannetti has been finished four times by submission. Brady expects Bautista to get the fight down to the mat early and finish with a first-round submission, though he acknowledges Cannetti has power and Bautista's chin is in question.
Cody picks Bautista by submission, noting Cannetti's tendency to give up his back and get choked. He highlights Bautista's improved wrestling and Jiu-Jitsu, and thinks Cannetti's brawling style will lead to a submission loss.
Connor picks Bautista confidently, noting that Bautista has become an aggressive bully who overwhelms opponents with pressure and chain wrestling. He acknowledges Cannetti's early explosiveness but believes Bautista's durability and pace will wear him down, leading to a finish in the second round or later.
Bautista is on a three-fight winning streak and looking career-best. Cannetti is 43 years old at bantamweight, which is a huge disadvantage. Bautista's physical transformation and finishing ability should be too much. I expect a dominant finish within 10 minutes, likely by submission. This is a favorable matchup for Bautista to continue his rise.
Paul picks Bautista easily, noting Cannetti's age (43) and Bautista's improvements in grappling. He thinks Bautista can submit Cannetti, who has a history of getting choked out. He mentions a YOLO bet on Cannetti by first-round KO but prefers Bautista by submission.
The MMA Guru picks Mario Bautista, noting he is a 10-to-1 favorite but believes he should win. He highlights Bautista's recent performances, including a submission win over Keller and dominating Benito Lopez. He thinks Bautista is in his prime and will submit Cannetti.
Zane picks Bautista but is less confident than the odds suggest. He notes that Cannetti is a fast, powerful starter who could catch Bautista early, but Bautista's pressure and durability should take over as Cannetti fades. He compares it to Chandler vs Hooker, where either could win early but Bautista has the edge over time.
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