Career Averages - Karl Williams
Career Averages - Łukasz Brzeski
Karl Williams
Łukasz Brzeski
Karl Williams - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 59 of 103 | 57% | 63 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 29 of 84 | 34% | 49 of 120 | 2 of 5 | 40% | 0 | 0 | 2:39 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 16 of 31 | 51% | 16 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 7 of 25 | 28% | 7 of 25 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:03 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 36 of 60 | 60% | 36 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 12 of 38 | 31% | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 0 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 11 of 16 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Karl Williams | 0 | 10 of 21 | 47% | 30 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 2:36 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jhonata Diniz | 59 of 103 | 57% | 32 of 75 | 3 of 3 | 24 of 25 | 58 of 101 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 29 of 84 | 34% | 22 of 74 | 2 of 4 | 5 of 6 | 25 of 75 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jhonata Diniz | 16 of 31 | 51% | 7 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 10 | 15 of 29 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 7 of 25 | 28% | 6 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Jhonata Diniz | 36 of 60 | 60% | 21 of 45 | 2 of 2 | 13 of 13 | 36 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 12 of 38 | 31% | 10 of 34 | 1 of 3 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Jhonata Diniz | 7 of 12 | 58% | 4 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Karl Williams | 10 of 21 | 47% | 6 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 4 | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 9 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Williams (-205), Diniz (+170)
Round 1
They keep the line moving with a heavyweight clash between Williams (10-1, 3-0 UFC) and the unbeaten Diniz (7-0, 1-0 UFC). The 34-year-old Williams, who operates out of Xtreme Couture, has been a pleasant surprise thus far as a mostly one-dimensional wrestler. Chris Tognoni handles the officiating duties. They step forward, greet one another with a touch of gloves and get down to business. Diniz paws with his jab. Williams responds in kind. Strong inside leg kick from Diniz. He then goes to the outside of the same leg. The Brazilian steps into hooks from both hands, grazing the target. Williams much heavier on his feet than his opponent. Another kick to the lower leg from Diniz. Williams backs him up with a right hand. Diniz staggers him with a check left hook and gives chase. Williams fires back. Diniz continues to target the leg, then unleashes a right hook-left hook volley. Williams wobbles again. Diniz stays patient and works from the outside. They paw at each other with jabs. Inside leg kick from Diniz. A minute to go in the round. Williams blocks a head kick, then doubles up on his jab and shoots on the hips. Diniz circles out into open space. Rough round so far for Williams. Diniz narrowly misses a left hook, then fires another kick to the inside of Williams’ lead leg.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 2
Diniz in charge as Round 2 begins. Jabs from Williams. Diniz doubles up on his left hook, resets and does so ago. They exchange in the center. Nothing lands. Leg kick from Diniz. Williams paws with his jab but continues to absorb damage to his lower extremities. Not a recipe for success so far for the Virgin Islands native. Diniz starting to get busier with his hands. If Williams thinks he can win a striking battle here, he appears to be sorely mistaken. Diniz dodges a one-two, hunts for openings, connects with a leg kick and follows a double jab with an overhand right. Another leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams now reacting to the feints. Blood trickling from Diniz’s nose. He sticks Williams with a right hand, then a left. Diniz follows a jab with a left hook to the body. Williams counters, putting more damage on the Brazilian’s nose. Push kick to the thigh from Williams. They exchange with 20 seconds left. Diniz misses a left hook, then plows his shin into Williams’ thigh. He sticks Williams with a right hand as the horn sounds.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Diniz
Round 3
Williams probably needs a finish if he wants to keep his undefeated UFC record. Tentative start for both men. One-two from Williams misfires. Body kick from Diniz, who has never been to a third round before now. Leg kick from the Brazilian. Williams paws with his jab. Diniz gives him pause with sweeping hooks from both hands. Leg kick from Diniz. Left hook connects, and Williams is on skates. He shoots on a takedown and briefly drives Diniz to the canvas. Diniz gets back to his feet, only to be taken down again. One has to wonder Williams did not take this approach sooner. Williams works from half guard. No ground-and-pound yet. He controls the wrist and starts feeding Diniz punches. He mixes in a few elbows but lacks the intensity he needs. The door is open for Williams with a minute to go. Diniz doing a good job defending and stalling. Williams pounds the body with short punches, then takes aim at the head. Diniz clearly hanging on in a bid to kill the clock here. Williams gets busy with hammerfists across the final 10 seconds but cannot nail down the finish.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Williams (29-28 Diniz)
The Official Result
Jhonata Diniz def. Karl Williams—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Karl Williams because he can dictate where the fight takes place with his wrestling. He expects a grapple-heavy fight and believes Williams will extend his win streak to eight. Diniz is a dangerous striker with 100% finish rate, but Williams can choose to take it to the ground if striking isn't working.
Cody picks Williams, expecting him to use wrestling to control Diniz and win a decision. He notes Diniz has shown zero ability to get back up, and Williams has taken down better grapplers. However, he warns of cardio issues and the risk of getting knocked out.
Diniz is the clearly better striker with knockout power, but his takedown defense is a concern, especially early. Williams will likely get a takedown in the first round, but his lack of finishing ability and Diniz's improving takedown defense could allow Diniz to take over in later rounds. The pick is risky but Diniz by knockout in the second or third is the prediction.
Paul agrees with Cody, emphasizing that Diniz has no get-up game and Williams should dominate with takedowns. He compares Diniz to Caesar Almeida, a kickboxer with poor grappling. Paul notes the risk of Diniz landing a knockout but believes Williams' wrestling will prevail.
The MMA Guru picks Jhonata Diniz despite expecting most people to pick Karl Williams. He notes Diniz's dangerous striking and ability to finish, as seen in his KO win over Austen Lane. He criticizes Williams' habit of getting wobbled before shooting takedowns and questions his size for the division. He believes Diniz's takedown defense and striking advantage will lead to a finish.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 40 of 61 | 65% | 123 of 176 | 7 of 12 | 58% | 1 | 0 | 10:31 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 27 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 12 of 16 | 75% | 35 of 51 | 4 of 4 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:58 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 6 of 12 | 50% | 6 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 20 of 34 | 58% | 54 of 81 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 | 0 | 2:45 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 9 of 15 | 60% | 14 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 8 of 11 | 72% | 34 of 44 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 3:48 |
| Justin Tafa | 0 | 6 of 16 | 37% | 7 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 40 of 61 | 65% | 26 of 47 | 7 of 7 | 7 of 7 | 19 of 29 | 3 of 4 | 18 of 28 |
| Justin Tafa | 21 of 43 | 48% | 15 of 36 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 39 | 2 of 3 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 12 of 16 | 75% | 7 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 6 |
| Justin Tafa | 6 of 12 | 50% | 4 of 10 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 20 of 34 | 58% | 15 of 29 | 4 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 10 of 17 | 0 of 0 | 10 of 17 |
| Justin Tafa | 9 of 15 | 60% | 5 of 10 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 8 of 11 | 72% | 4 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 |
| Justin Tafa | 6 of 16 | 37% | 6 of 16 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 13 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Justin Tafa as a low confidence underdog, having placed a quarter-unit bet at +220. He overcorrects from Karl Williams' poor performance against Chase Sherman, where Williams' legs were chewed up and takedowns were ineffective. He believes Tafa's leg kicks, takedown defense, and power can win if it becomes a striking match.
Big Brady picks Karl Williams, citing his wrestling advantage and ability to take Tafa down at will. He notes Tafa has a puncher's chance but has terrible losses and likely offers little off his back. He expects Williams to control the fight on the ground and win a decision.
Cody believes Williams' wrestling will be the key, as he can take down bigger opponents and control the fight. He notes that Tafa's 100% takedown defense is misleading because he hasn't faced strong wrestlers. Cody expects Williams to get takedowns early and wear Tafa down, possibly getting a late finish.
Daniel Vreeland picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and Tafa's inability to get up from takedowns. He notes Williams can win by decision, ground-and-pound TKO, or submission, while Tafa's only path is a knockout. He warns Williams not to test his standup but believes one takedown could end the fight.
Tafa has massive power in his hands and 100% takedown defense (though limited attempts). Williams relies on grappling and grinding, but Tafa's power should make him pay on the feet. Williams may have early grappling success, but he is not a finisher and will slow down. Tafa should find a knockout in the second or third round. The knockout prop at +185 is noted.
Paul calls Williams the play of the week, citing his speed and explosiveness as a 205-pounder moving up. He highlights Williams' wrestling credentials, including takedowns against Jimmy Lawson and Lucas Brzozowski. Paul acknowledges the Chase Sherman fight as a concern but believes Williams' plan B striking is sufficient. He trusts Williams to implement his game plan.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams over Justin Tafa, expressing frustration with 'fat' heavyweights. He likes Williams' takedowns and thinks he can take Tafa down and ground-and-pound him. He notes Tafa's recent injury and Williams' training at top gyms. He predicts a TKO via ground and pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 0 | 70 of 165 | 42% | 85 of 191 | 1 of 10 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 2:35 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 54 of 158 | 34% | 64 of 170 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 19 of 43 | 44% | 34 of 69 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 1:41 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 11 of 39 | 28% | 17 of 45 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 0 | 23 of 63 | 36% | 23 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 13 of 56 | 23% | 15 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 28 of 59 | 47% | 28 of 59 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:31 |
| Chase Sherman | 0 | 30 of 63 | 47% | 32 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 70 of 165 | 42% | 53 of 147 | 6 of 6 | 11 of 12 | 65 of 159 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 54 of 158 | 34% | 26 of 124 | 10 of 15 | 18 of 19 | 46 of 148 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 19 of 43 | 44% | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 14 of 38 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 |
| Chase Sherman | 11 of 39 | 28% | 6 of 32 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 10 of 36 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 23 of 63 | 36% | 17 of 56 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 5 | 23 of 62 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 13 of 56 | 23% | 5 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 7 of 7 | 13 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 28 of 59 | 47% | 22 of 53 | 2 of 2 | 4 of 4 | 28 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Chase Sherman | 30 of 63 | 47% | 15 of 45 | 9 of 11 | 6 of 7 | 23 of 56 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Karl Williams, calling him a powerful striker with solid wrestling. He notes Chase Sherman is hittable with no head movement and doesn't have one-punch knockout power. He says Williams should dominate bell to bell and is a safe parlay piece. He urges to smash the line even at -400.
Big Brady is very confident in Williams, calling this a tailor-made matchup. He notes Sherman has terrible takedown defense and one of the worst ground games in the UFC, citing his losses to Romanov and Collier. Williams has good wrestling, as shown in his Contender Series win over Jimmy Lawson. Brady predicts Williams will take Sherman down, pound him out, and get a finish inside the distance. He says if Williams doesn't finish Sherman here, he never will.
Cody picks Williams confidently, citing Sherman's poor takedown defense and tendency to gas. He notes that Williams will take Sherman down and control him, and that Sherman's punching power is overrated. He expects Williams to win by decision or late stoppage, and likes the over 3 takedowns prop for Williams.
Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing that Williams is much faster and a rare heavyweight with good wrestling. He notes that Sherman's style requires a brawl, but Williams can avoid that by taking him down. Connor feels bad for Sherman, who seems to dislike fighting, and expects Williams to win easily.
Daniel Levi picks Karl Williams, emphasizing his wrestling advantage and path to victory via takedowns and ground control. He notes that while Williams may have cardio concerns, Sherman is not a cardio machine either. Levi expects Williams to implement his game plan and break Sherman late, securing his second UFC win. He also mentions calling Williams' amateur fights and being impressed by his journey.
Sherman has a gut feeling pick; Williams has cardio issues and leaves openings. Sherman can survive the early onslaught, work back to his feet, and land big punches for a knockout. Williams slows down and Sherman has the experience to capitalize. Low confidence but Sherman by knockout is the call.
Paul picks Sherman as a value underdog due to heavyweight volatility, but is hesitant. He notes Sherman's puncher's chance and the fact that Williams is not a real heavyweight. He mentions a previous Shoei bet on Williams and is considering waiting for better odds. He acknowledges Williams' grappling advantage but is not confident.
The MMA Guru picks Karl Williams, noting his wrestling advantage and Sherman's tendency to lose by being taken down. He believes Williams will take Sherman down and beat him up on the ground, as Sherman has a lot of miles on him.
Zane is confident in Karl Williams, citing his speed advantage and wrestling ability as clear edges over Chase Sherman. He notes that Sherman lacks defense and enjoyment in fighting, and that Williams can take him down at will. Zane expects Williams to dominate, possibly by submission or ground-and-pound.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 1 | 38 of 58 | 65% | 120 of 168 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 49 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 28 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 36 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 65 of 82 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 38 of 58 | 65% | 31 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 19 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 16 of 24 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 13 of 23 | 56% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 10 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 10 of 11 | 90% | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.
Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.
Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.
Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.
The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.
Łukasz Brzeski - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 23 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 0 | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 2 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 5 of 8 | 62% | 23 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ryan Spann | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 5 of 8 | 62% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Spann | 8 of 19 | 42% | 8 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 9 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 5 of 8 | 62% | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Ryan Spann to win, noting his power, submissions, and wrestling. He compares Brzeski to Austin Lane as a finishable opponent. However, he expresses concern about Spann's heavyweight debut where he looked out of shape and not serious, making the -225 price a bit tricky.
Big Brady picks Ryan Spann but expresses concern about Spann's inconsistency and motivation. He notes Spann looked terrible at heavyweight and hasn't posted training content. However, he believes Brzeski is not UFC caliber and Spann should win by first-round knockout if he shows up.
The host thinks Spann will get his first heavyweight win but expects Brzeski to make it more difficult than the odds indicate. He predicts Spann finds the finish inside the distance, but the hesitation suggests some doubt about the ease of victory.
The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski over Ryan Spann, citing Spann's low fight IQ and poor performance against Anthony Smith. He notes that Brzeski has experience in the cage and went to a decision with Volkan Oezdemir, which is respectable. The Guru also mentions that Brzeski is likely taller than Spann despite the listed height difference. He cannot trust Spann after his last performance and believes Brzeski will win.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 1 | 29 of 70 | 41% | 29 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 32 of 69 | 46% | 32 of 69 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 70 | 41% | 19 of 55 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 32 of 69 | 46% | 16 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kennedy Nzechukwu | 29 of 70 | 41% | 19 of 55 | 10 of 13 | 0 of 2 | 26 of 67 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 32 of 69 | 46% | 16 of 50 | 6 of 9 | 10 of 10 | 32 of 69 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, noting he is a massive heavyweight with an 83-inch reach, decent takedown defense, and power. He believes Nzechukwu's physicality and power will overwhelm Brzeski, who is chinny and coming off a knockout loss. Angelo mentions Nzechukwu is not a true heavyweight but looked fine in his last fight. He considers the odds of -500 fair and might include Nzechukwu in a parlay.
Cody picks Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach, and power advantage. He notes Brzeski's poor record and suspect chin. He expects Nzechukwu to win by knockout, though he acknowledges heavyweight volatility.
Connor picks Nzechukwu confidently, noting that Brzeski cannot take shots and has low output. He points out that Nzechukwu is huge and can build into a fight, and that Brzeski does not have the power or volume to hurt him early. Connor believes Nzechukwu's size and durability will be too much for Brzeski.
Daniel picks Nzechukwu, citing his size and skill advantage at heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu's reach and southpaw stance will be key, and expects a knockout given Brzeski's recent losses. He notes Nzechukwu's improved durability without the weight cut.
Nzechukwu is never really super reliable as a -500 favorite, but I expect him to touch up Brzeski from distance and eventually open up a knockout opportunity for himself in the second or third round.
Paul picks Nzechukwu, citing his physical advantages and Brzeski's lack of skills. He notes Nzechukwu's move to heavyweight and improved comfort. He expects a dominant win, but warns against heavy betting due to heavyweight unpredictability.
The MMA Guru picks Kennedy Nzechukwu, citing his size, reach advantage, and skill difference on the feet. He thinks Nzechukwu will be bigger and more skilled than Brzeski, who is a smaller heavyweight. He believes Nzechukwu will win and could go far in the division.
Zane agrees, picking Nzechukwu. He notes that Brzeski is a low-output volume fighter who cannot take shots, and that Nzechukwu is a giant who can come back into fights. Zane believes Brzeski will not be able to do enough damage to stop Nzechukwu from finding his rhythm.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Parkin | 1 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 34 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 26 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mick Parkin | 1 | 34 of 52 | 65% | 34 of 52 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 24 of 42 | 57% | 26 of 44 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mick Parkin | 34 of 52 | 65% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 24 of 42 | 57% | 12 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mick Parkin | 34 of 52 | 65% | 29 of 46 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 5 | 28 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 4 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 24 of 42 | 57% | 12 of 28 | 3 of 5 | 9 of 9 | 20 of 38 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mick Parkin as one of the most confident picks on the card, noting that Parkin is better everywhere and will control the pace. He expects Parkin's odds to balloon to -400 by fight night. Angelo admits the fight will be boring but is confident in Parkin's win.
Cody picks Mick Parkin, citing his youth, cardio, and improving wrestling. He notes that Łukasz Brzeski has poor grappling and has been taken down repeatedly. Cody believes Parkin can use his wrestling to control the fight and win by decision, possibly with a late submission.
Daniel thinks Mick Parkin is technical and well-rounded, while Łukasz Brzeski has been fed to prospects and lost. He expects Parkin to outwork Brzeski.
Paul also picks Parkin, noting that Brzeski's takedown defense is nonexistent and that Parkin can use his size and wrestling to grind out a win. He mentions that Parkin trains with Tom Aspinall and has a significant weight advantage. Paul expects Parkin to win, possibly by decision.
The MMA Guru picks Mick Parkin, expecting him to chew up Łukasz Brzeski's legs and mix in grappling when needed. He praises Parkin's underrated grappling and notes that Brzeski has had poor performances. The Guru believes Parkin is better than fighters like Karl Williams, who easily beat Brzeski. Training with Tom Aspinall is seen as a plus for Parkin's improvement. He predicts Parkin will win, possibly by decision or TKO.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 33 of 67 | 49% | 56 of 101 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 1 | 7:19 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 58 of 102 | 56% | 135 of 200 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:43 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 12 of 18 | 66% | 21 of 33 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:16 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 16 of 27 | 59% | 52 of 67 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 16 of 35 | 45% | 17 of 36 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:58 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 32 of 56 | 57% | 39 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:11 | |
| 3 | Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 5 of 14 | 35% | 18 of 32 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 1 | 3:05 |
| Valter Walker | 0 | 10 of 19 | 52% | 44 of 62 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:32 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Łukasz Brzeski | 33 of 67 | 49% | 19 of 50 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 9 | 23 of 53 | 2 of 5 | 8 of 9 |
| Valter Walker | 58 of 102 | 56% | 27 of 70 | 16 of 17 | 15 of 15 | 55 of 96 | 3 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Łukasz Brzeski | 12 of 18 | 66% | 9 of 14 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 3 | 4 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 7 of 7 |
| Valter Walker | 16 of 27 | 59% | 4 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 8 of 8 | 16 of 26 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Łukasz Brzeski | 16 of 35 | 45% | 9 of 27 | 3 of 4 | 4 of 4 | 15 of 31 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Valter Walker | 32 of 56 | 57% | 19 of 42 | 8 of 9 | 5 of 5 | 30 of 52 | 2 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Łukasz Brzeski | 5 of 14 | 35% | 1 of 9 | 3 of 3 | 1 of 2 | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 |
| Valter Walker | 10 of 19 | 52% | 4 of 13 | 4 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Valter Walker with high confidence, noting that Walker is massive (6'6") and a wrestler who should dominate by coming forward and ragdolling Łukasz Brzeski. He acknowledges that Walker's striking is miserable and he eats shots, but believes heavyweights are not used to a 6'6" Brazilian charging at them with wrestling. He expects the UFC to fast-track Walker.
Big Brady picks Valter Walker by decision, despite being unimpressed with Walker. He notes that Walker is huge, a solid wrestler, and can get fights to the mat. He cannot pick Łukasz Brzeski to win any UFC fight due to poor takedown defense and cardio. He expects a grinding decision with no finish.
Cody also picks Walker, noting that Brzeski has been taken down 8 times by Karl Williams. He thinks Walker's wrestling and size advantage will be key, and that if Walker sticks to takedowns and top control, he should win. Cody is wary of Walker's UFC debut but believes the matchup favors him.
Walker is a more complete fighter than his brother Johnny, with solid striking and underrated wrestling. He can take opponents down and grind them out. Brzeski is on a losing streak and has struggled against grapplers. Walker's size and strength advantage will allow him to control the fight and win by decision.
Paul picks Walker but is hesitant due to question marks. He likes Walker's size, athleticism, and grappling, and notes Brzeski has been taken down repeatedly by wrestlers like Karl Williams. Paul thinks Walker can take Brzeski down, make him carry weight, and gas him out. He acknowledges Walker is unproven but sees a clear path to victory via wrestling and top control.
The host identifies Walker as Johnny Walker's brother, noting he is 6'6", 26 years old, with an 81.5-inch reach. He highlights Walker's dynamic striking (front kicks, head kicks, spinning backfists) and good double-leg takedowns. He recalls a clip of Walker grappling with Johnny Walker, showing good sweeps and butterfly guard. He acknowledges Walker has a chin but is confident in his skills.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 1 | 15 of 45 | 33% | 16 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 14 of 22 | 63% | 15 of 23 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Waldo Cortes Acosta | 15 of 45 | 33% | 9 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 14 of 22 | 63% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 12 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Waldo Cortes Acosta | 15 of 45 | 33% | 9 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 3 of 4 | 12 of 42 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 14 of 22 | 63% | 1 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 10 of 12 | 14 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo is very confident in Waldo, citing his striking and athleticism being far ahead of Brzeski. He notes that Brzeski turns his head and reacts too much to strikes. The only concern is leg kicks, as Waldo has been hurt by them before, but he still believes Waldo wins. He includes Waldo in a two-fighter parlay with Bedoya.
Big Brady notes that Waldo Cortes Acosta has holes in his game, including susceptibility to leg kicks and takedowns, but he doesn't trust Łukasz Brzeski's cardio, as Brzeski looks tired after 60 seconds. He expects a sloppy fight with Brzeski gassing early, allowing Acosta to land bigger shots and win a decision. He cautions against betting Acosta at heavy odds.
Cody picks Brzeski as an underdog, noting his durability and volume striking. He thinks Cortes Acosta lacks power and Brzeski can outwork him. Cody also mentions the fight likely goes the distance and likes the over.
Daniel picks Waldo Cortes Acosta, citing his athleticism and baseball background. He notes that Brzeski is tough but lacks finishing upside. He mentions that Acosta has a good jab and better hands, though he is vulnerable to calf kicks. He thinks Acosta wins by striking and has a cardio edge. He is confident but notes it's heavyweight and anything can happen.
James picks Waldo Cortes Acosta to win by decision, though he acknowledges Brzeski is the value side. He notes Acosta has decent offensive tools but poor defense and leg kick vulnerability. He sees Acosta's speed and athleticism as advantages, and expects him to outpoint Brzeski over three rounds.
The host defends Cortes Acosta, praising his conditioning, jab, and volume. He notes that Cortes Acosta lost his last fight due to leg kicks and takedowns from Marcos de Lima, but showed good cardio in the third round. The host criticizes Brzeski's takedown defense and regional competition, but acknowledges the line is wide and suggests waiting for a better price. He predicts a decision win for Cortes Acosta.
Paul picks Cortes Acosta to win by decision, noting his volume striking and boxing. He likes the over on significant strikes for Cortes Acosta. Paul is not confident in the price but thinks Cortes Acosta should win.
The MMA Guru picks Waldo Cortes Acosta over Łukasz Brzeski, citing Brzeski's lack of grappling and decline in physical shape after a failed drug test. He notes Acosta's size advantage (15-20 pounds) and better boxing with more sting on his shots. He acknowledges Acosta's vulnerability to leg kicks but doubts Brzeski will exploit it. He predicts Acosta's well-rounded boxing and size will be the difference.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 1 | 38 of 58 | 65% | 120 of 168 | 8 of 13 | 61% | 0 | 0 | 10:13 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 49 of 72 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 0 | 16 of 24 | 66% | 19 of 27 | 3 of 5 | 60% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 13 of 23 | 56% | 28 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:10 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 1 | 12 of 23 | 52% | 36 of 59 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 3:42 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 7 of 14 | 50% | 11 of 20 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:16 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 0 | 10 of 11 | 90% | 65 of 82 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 4:17 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 6 of 9 | 66% | 10 of 13 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Karl Williams | 38 of 58 | 65% | 31 of 50 | 4 of 5 | 3 of 3 | 22 of 34 | 2 of 5 | 14 of 19 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 26 of 46 | 56% | 19 of 39 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 22 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Karl Williams | 16 of 24 | 66% | 11 of 18 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 | 15 of 21 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 13 of 23 | 56% | 10 of 20 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 12 of 21 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Karl Williams | 12 of 23 | 52% | 11 of 22 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 11 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 10 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 7 of 14 | 50% | 6 of 13 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 6 of 12 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Karl Williams | 10 of 11 | 90% | 9 of 10 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 9 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 6 of 9 | 66% | 3 of 6 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.
Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.
Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.
Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.
The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 0 | 66 of 188 | 35% | 66 of 188 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 118 of 273 | 43% | 124 of 280 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 0 | 25 of 63 | 39% | 25 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:06 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 41 of 104 | 39% | 47 of 111 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 0 | 19 of 55 | 34% | 19 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 43 of 89 | 48% | 43 of 89 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 0 | 22 of 70 | 31% | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 0 | 34 of 80 | 42% | 34 of 80 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Martin Buday | 66 of 188 | 35% | 50 of 169 | 3 of 6 | 13 of 13 | 65 of 187 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 118 of 273 | 43% | 49 of 182 | 51 of 69 | 18 of 22 | 116 of 268 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Martin Buday | 25 of 63 | 39% | 20 of 56 | 0 of 2 | 5 of 5 | 24 of 62 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 41 of 104 | 39% | 19 of 74 | 16 of 21 | 6 of 9 | 39 of 99 | 2 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Martin Buday | 19 of 55 | 34% | 14 of 50 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 19 of 55 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 43 of 89 | 48% | 18 of 59 | 15 of 20 | 10 of 10 | 43 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Martin Buday | 22 of 70 | 31% | 16 of 63 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 70 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Łukasz Brzeski | 34 of 80 | 42% | 12 of 49 | 20 of 28 | 2 of 3 | 34 of 80 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Martin Buday due to his power, noting that Brzeski doesn't like getting hit and may cower. However, he doesn't like the odds at 2-to-1, so he won't bet the moneyline but will use Buday in knockout kings daily fantasy.
Big Brady picks Martin Buday to win by second-round finish. He notes that Brzeski has terrible cardio, gassing within the first two minutes, and is undersized. Buday uses his size well, pushing opponents against the cage and wearing them down. Brady expects Buday to eventually finish Brzeski, possibly by knockout or ground and pound.
Cody picks Martin Buday, citing his size advantage (30+ lbs) and clinch-heavy style. He notes Brzeski is smaller, may not be on PEDs anymore, and has a limited gas tank. Cody expects Buday to wear him down and finish late in the second or third round.
Daniel Levi picks Martin Buday, describing him as a real heavyweight who imposes his size and will. He notes that Buday weighs 265 pounds and uses brutal knees and elbows against the fence. In contrast, Brzeski is lighter and has a failed drug test, so Levi expects Buday to dominate.
The host likes Buday, mentioning he has power and volume. He also notes that Brzeski doesn't look good on the skills. He mentions a bet on Buday inside the distance at -110 and round two at +550.
Paul picks Martin Buday, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes the over 1.5 rounds line has moved to -175, but he prefers to look for an over 2.5 or fight goes to decision prop, as Buday tends to grind out wins late.
The host picks Martin Buday, citing a 35-pound weight advantage and expecting him to wear out Łukasz Brzeski against the cage for a third-round TKO. He notes Brzeski's positive steroid test and questions his technique, suggesting he looked better on regional shows than on the Contender Series.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo leans toward Łukasz Brzeski, believing he is the better overall fighter with more ways to win, including mixing in takedowns. He notes that Brzeski does not like getting hit, which could be a problem against Karl Williams' power, but he thinks Brzeski can dominate as he did against Martin Buday. He advises against betting due to the volatility of heavyweight and Williams' danger.
Big Brady likes Karl Williams, noting his wrestling is dominant and he can take opponents down and keep them there. He points out Brzeski's cardio is questionable and he is no longer on PEDs. Brady expects Williams to control the fight on the mat and win by decision, as Williams is not a finisher.
Cody agrees with Paul, picking Brzeski. He highlights Brzeski's volume and cardio, and doubts Williams' ability to replicate his takedown success against a true heavyweight. He likes the plus money.
Connor picks Brzeski because he sees him as a more complete fighter with better experience and durability. He notes Brzeski's high output, good gas tank, and ability to handle wrestling, while Williams fades as the fight goes on and his wrestling isn't dominant enough to control Brzeski.
Williams' wrestling and grappling should be the deciding factor. He has a good gas tank and will look to grind Brzeski down with takedowns and control time. Brzeski showed improved striking in his last fight but struggled against a clinch-heavy approach. Williams will close the distance and drag the fight to the mat, winning by decision.
Paul picks Brzeski as an underdog, questioning Williams' heavyweight credentials and noting Brzeski's cardio and volume. He thinks Brzeski can outwork Williams and mentions his impressive performance against Martin Buday despite a split decision loss.
The MMA Guru picks Łukasz Brzeski, noting that Karl Williams lacks finishing potential and is not a big heavyweight. He believes Brzeski has good cardio and will out-hustle Williams to a decision win after a rough start in round one.
Zane agrees with Connor, picking Brzeski due to his superior experience and durability. He notes that Brzeski has been fighting better competition and has a more proven track record, while Williams' wins are against inexperienced opponents and he tends to fade.
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