Victor Henry vs Tony Gravely

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Victor Henry	1	73 of 151	48%	139 of 227	2 of 3	66%	0	3	4:10
Pedro Falcão	0	57 of 117	48%	69 of 133	4 of 13	30%	0	0	2:58

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Victor Henry	1	22 of 53	41%	50 of 87	1 of 1	100%	0	1:38
Pedro Falcão	0	20 of 43	46%	26 of 52	0 of 3	0%	0	0:36
2	Victor Henry	0	23 of 54	42%	38 of 70	0 of 0	---	2	0:56
Pedro Falcão	0	24 of 45	53%	28 of 50	3 of 5	60%	0	1:30
3	Victor Henry	0	28 of 44	63%	51 of 70	1 of 2	50%	1	1:36
Pedro Falcão	0	13 of 29	44%	15 of 31	1 of 5	20%	0	0:52

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Victor Henry	73 of 151	48%	44 of 115	21 of 27	8 of 9	57 of 127	9 of 14	7 of 10
Pedro Falcão	57 of 117	48%	34 of 91	11 of 13	12 of 13	55 of 114	2 of 3	0 of 0

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Victor Henry	22 of 53	41%	13 of 44	6 of 6	3 of 3	15 of 44	2 of 2	5 of 7
Pedro Falcão	20 of 43	46%	12 of 34	3 of 4	5 of 5	20 of 43	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	23 of 54	42%	9 of 35	11 of 16	3 of 3	19 of 47	4 of 7	0 of 0
Pedro Falcão	24 of 45	53%	14 of 33	4 of 5	6 of 7	22 of 42	2 of 3	0 of 0
3	Victor Henry	28 of 44	63%	22 of 36	4 of 5	2 of 3	23 of 36	3 of 5	2 of 3
Pedro Falcão	13 of 29	44%	8 of 24	4 of 4	1 of 1	13 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0

Pedro Falcao vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-218), Falcao (+180)

Round 1
It’s all speed and action for this next bantamweight contest, as Henry (24-7, 1 NC; 3-2, 1 NC UFC) constantly defies his age—currently 37—every time he hits the cage. His Nova Uniao-trained foe Falcao (16-4, 0-1 UFC) will come in five years the younger, but not nearly as much combat experience on his ledger. Referee Keith Peterson drew nonsense-free straws and was picked for this matchup, one that kicks off with a fist bump before they are released into the wild. Falcao gets right in Henry’s face with a jab early, peppering him with mixed-in low kicks. Henry fires back with his own leg kick, and he sees a takedown coming and turns the corner to lean himself against the fencing. Falcao hangs on from behind, where he turns Falcao’s aggression against him and hits a trip to put the Brazilian on his back. Henry smacks up Falcao’s leg and posterior with deceptively heavy kicks, talking to him all the while. Falcao decides he should stop eating kicks and should stand up, and he does that without any resistance. Falcao gets back behind the driver’s seat and surges forward behind his right hand, and his follow-up left reddens Henry’s temple. “La Mangosta” unleashes a bomb of a right hand that detonates on the chin of the Brazilian, who falls to his back as Henry gives chase with a barrage of hammerfists. Falcao keeps himself safe enough to force Henry back to standing, and he again hangs out too long on his back while Henry chops at his legs. They may not be as effective as Donald Cerrone’s mean-spirited kicks on Myles Jury, but they add up fast until again Falcao decides to just get back up. Henry allows him to do this so he can punch his man in the liver. Falcao stays pressing forward, Henry slipping his left hook a few times but getting caught with a third. Falcao punches his way into a single-leg takedown, and the catchwrestler trained by Josh Barnett does not budge and regains his footing. They separate, and Henry parries a few jabbing kicks to get into his preferred throwing range. Falcao dips in and out with a combination, and he has a kick checked and eats a few punches at the bell.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
Henry comes out of his corner loaded for bear, and after he gets off a few punches, Falcao hammers his front leg and trips him up. Henry awkwardly climbs back up, fighting to wake his leg back up, and Falcao slams his front leg with another. Henry lands two back, and Falcao’s to the calf is more effective and accurate. Falcao misses with a pair of haymakers, and he scores a left but is driven back by a pair of punches. Henry jumps in the air with a knee, and Falcao catches his leg and looks for a takedown. When Henry hops out of it, Falcao follows him and completes a high-amplitude takedown. Falcao advances to half guard, pressing his chest down until Henry explodes to his feet. Falcao follows him, slams him down from behind, and cannot quite keep a tight grip on his man. Henry rolls all the way through it, and Falcao hits his back and latches onto an armbar. Henry elbows his way out of it, and he drills Falcao with a few kicks before Falcao stands back up and tries to grapple. They sit down on single hooks, and Henry’s lands cleaner and forces Falcao to reset. The Brazilian works his way forward, walking through a body shot so he can give Henry one back to ponder. Falcao drops down to a knee and hits another takedown to dump Henry on his back. Henry turns to his knees and gives up his back, and he somersaults through a scramble to wrap up a scarf hold position on the Brazilian. Falcao scrambles with this furiously, and the two work their way back to their feet. Falcao lands first in an exchange, and Henry scores last. Henry walks Falcao down and slugs him in the face and midsection, and the round concludes.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Falcao
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Falcao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Falcao

Round 3
A clap of hands leads to a huge, which leads to a takedown try from Falcao. Henry scrambles to flip him over, only to find himself having to keep moving as Falcao has suddenly taken his back. Henry turns to his side and a knee, hoping to go all the way over. He succeeds, fighting off an armbar while putting Falcao on his back. Henry jams down short strikes until he gets a little space when Falcao kicks him off. Falcao shoots naked for a takedown, and “La Mangosta” shuts him down and knees him in the jaw. Falcao fails on another shot, and he bails on it to reset. Two jabs from Falcao are answered with a clean right hand, and Henry stands in front of him and kicks him in the lower body. Three overhand rights get over the guard, and Henry manages to score a fourth before Falcao fires back. Henry nods at him, and the two trade hands and feet. Falcao shoots for a takedown, and Henry tackles him over to the mat. Falcao starts fishing for a leglock before Henry can escape the grappling, and Falcao rolls over and hooks his knees around Henry’s foot. Henry continues to twist until his leg is free, and Falcao presses him tightly against the wall, both men upright again. Henry pushes off and drills Falcao with a right hand, and his left hand wobbles the Brazilian. A desperate takedown from Falcao is met with a sprawl and several annoying left hands. Henry loads up with an uppercut, and he catches “Pedrinho” at the end of a hooking right. Falcao cannot buy a takedown at this stage in the fight, and Henry walks off and starts doing the Running Man. Falcao shrugs at him, takes a few kicks to the gut, and the horn sounds. The Brazilian practically falls over to his seat from exhaustion, while Henry appears to still be able to go two more rounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry (29-28 Henry)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Henry (29-28 Henry)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry (29-28 Henry)

The Official Result
Victor Henry def. Pedro Falcao via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Mar 30, 2025 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Angelo initially wanted to pick Pedro Falcão due to Victor's age and sloppiness, but after tape study he notes Victor still has juice left and got takedowns in his last fight. He sees Victor as an established UFC guy who doesn't suck at anything, while Pedro has gaps and hasn't proven himself at this level. Angelo picks Victor but acknowledges Pedro could be a decent underdog.

"Victor Henry is going to be the pick but Pedro might be one of the decent underdogs on this card but we're gonna stick with what we've got going on."

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 1, 2025 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Big Brady likes Victor Henry despite the line moving against him. He believes Henry has underrated BJJ, good takedown defense, and a significant striking advantage. He expects Henry to stuff most of Falcão's takedowns and win via late knockout, specifically a third-round KO.

third round knockout

"give me Victor Henry Victor Henry by third round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry is loved in this spot as he can shut down Falcão's BJJ black belt and put on a pace and pressure that Falcão is uncomfortable with in the striking realm. Henry is expected to win on the scorecards.

"I love me some Henry in the spot as I think he can shut down the BJJ black belt of falca and put on a pace and pressure that fala is not comfortable with in the Striking real leading to …"

MMA Lock of the Night

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 3, 2025 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

The Guru picks Victor Henry, citing his sprawl-and-pitter-patter style and ability to keep the fight standing. He notes Pedro Falcão spammed takedowns against Victor Hugo and failed most, and Henry is good at stuffing takedowns and out-voluming opponents. He expects a decision win, likely 29-28, with Henry winning the second and third rounds due to superior cardio.

Victor Henry by decision

"I'm going to go with Victor Henry here. I don't see too much from Pedro Falcow to be honest with you."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Charles Jourdain

Submission (guillotine choke) R2 3:43 · UFC Fight Night: Moreno vs. Albazi · Nov 02, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Charles Jourdain	0	39 of 73	53%	50 of 87	0 of 2	0%	1	0	0:17
Victor Henry	0	24 of 54	44%	39 of 75	4 of 6	66%	0	0	3:49

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Charles Jourdain	28 of 46	60%	38 of 59	0 of 2	0%	0	0:17
1	Victor Henry	18 of 34	52%	28 of 45	2 of 4	50%	0	1:18
2	Charles Jourdain	11 of 27	40%	12 of 28	0 of 0	---	1	0:00
2	Victor Henry	6 of 20	30%	11 of 30	2 of 2	100%	0	2:31

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Charles Jourdain	39 of 73	53%	19 of 49	14 of 18	6 of 6	31 of 62	8 of 11	0 of 0
Victor Henry	24 of 54	44%	8 of 30	11 of 17	5 of 7	22 of 51	1 of 2	1 of 1

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Charles Jourdain	28 of 46	60%	12 of 27	13 of 16	3 of 3	21 of 36	7 of 10	0 of 0
1	Victor Henry	18 of 34	52%	5 of 15	8 of 12	5 of 7	16 of 31	1 of 2	1 of 1
2	Charles Jourdain	11 of 27	40%	7 of 22	1 of 2	3 of 3	10 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	6 of 20	30%	3 of 15	3 of 5	0 of 0	6 of 20	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Victor Henry vs. Charles Jourdain
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jourdain (-125), Henry (+105)

Round 1
Meeting in the middle after plenty of time in different divisions, ex-featherweight Jourdain (15-8-1, 6-7-1 UFC) shifts gears down to 135 pounds in hopes of keeping that explosiveness. He greets former flyweight Henry (24-6, 1 NC, 3-1, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight, with the two drawing oversight from referee Black Grice. Speed will be the name of the game in this one, and they intend on showing it off just as soon as they complete their expected glove touch. Jourdain slowly plods forward, hand-fighting Henry’s probing jabs. Henry lands a pair of low kicks as Grice issues a warning for outstretched fingers. Jourdain whips a kick up high that is barely blocked, and Henry gets busy with low and body kicks. Henry secures a body kick that splits the guard, and he absorbs a clean low kick that makes him recoil his limb. Jourdain leaps in the air with a knee, and Henry swats it away. The two trade low kicks, and Jourdain prods out a front kick that knocks Henry back a step. A Jourdain jab is met with a leg kick, and Henry walks his foe down and connects with a left hook. Jourdain looses another quick head kick, and he races forward and puts as right hand on the jaw of “La Mangosta.” Henry keeps striding forward, but Jourdain is pecking at him with low kicks and longer punches. Henry attacks the body and lead leg with kicks, and Jourdain comes out firing with a pair of looping hooks. Henry gets off a body kick, and Jourdain trips Henry up and dumps him to the floor. The well-schooled Henry does not show any concern when Jourdain grips hold of a guillotine choke, and he escapes and resets. Henry walks him down and trips him out, putting Jourdain on his back thanks to sheer pressure. Jourdain posts off an arm to sit up, and Henry slickly shuts him down. Jourdain still explodes to his feet despite Henry’s wishes, and he trips Henry to a knee but does not complete it. Jourdain stands, wraps up a guillotine, and releases it to nails Henry with a flush elbow on the forehead. Henry blinks it out and loads up on a pair of right hands, and he gets countered and clips. Jourdain’s power shakes Henry up briefly, but Henry keeps marching onward throwing punches. Jourdain uses a sharp front kick and a head kick to slow Henry, and he tries to time a jump knee but Henry is wise to it and waits to press forward into a clinch. As Jourdain looks to frame off of Henry’s face, Henry trips his legs out. Henry no-sells a guillotine choke until the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jourdain

Round 2
The two touch gloves before getting going, and Henry is quick to assert heavy pressure. Jourdain is lighter on his feet, swinging harder and landing cleaner. Jourdain clips Henry, forcing Henry to close in on him and trying to clinch. Jourdain shucks him off and rips an uppercut up the middle, and he chews up Henry’s lead leg and strafes to the side. Henry gives chase, pushing out a front kick and a body kick, and he gets caught with an uppercut moving forward. Henry keeps his guard high, allowing Jourdain’s offense to throw him off-balance. Henry wrangles Jourdain to the floor, and he wraps up his opponent with a body lock while fishing for a rear-naked choke. Henry rolls when Jourdain scrambles, and he hunts for a choke any time he can spot an opening. Jourdain defends well and keeps turning, eventually settling to lean his side against the cage. Henry is warned for an elbow to the spine, and he lets Jourdain turn over so he can slip an arm on the side of the chin. Henry moves into top position, but he is dragged back to the guard of “La Mangosta.” Jourdain snatches up a guillotine choke on his back, and Henry pays it no mind as it is not locked up. The Canadian hacks with elbows off his back, and he sits up and nearly works his way up. Henry stifles a guillotine choke without issue by remaining calm, and Jourdain uses the grip to work to his feet.
The choke is still wrapped around Henry’s neck, and Jourdain jumps guard to set up and lock down the guillotine. This time, it is exceptionally tight, and Henry does not have a way out. With no more options, Henry frantically taps out, surrendering for the first time in his lengthy career.
Jourdain sends a message to his new division with his stoppage win, while also showing off his new, impressive back tattoo.

The Official Result
Charles Jourdain def. Victor Henry R2 3:43 via Submission (Guillotine Choke)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 27, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Angelo is confident Victor Henry wins, calling Charles Jourdain 'just not that good' despite being fun. He thinks Henry has better technique and cardio, and will outwork Jourdain. He notes Henry is 37 but still looks good and fights smart. He placed a half unit bet on Henry at even money (minus 110). He acknowledges Jourdain has a fanbase but insists he is not an upper echelon fighter.

half unit on Victor Henry at -110

"Victor's going to be the pick and I actually threw a half unit on an even money at minus 110"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Big Brady picks Victor Henry to win by decision. He likes Henry's nonstop volume (8.5 significant strikes per minute) and notes that Jourdain is a slow starter and has struggled with wrestling recently. Brady thinks Jourdain won't be able to take Henry down and that Henry's pace will overwhelm Jourdain over 15 minutes. He is picking against another Canadian.

"I'm going Henry to win this fight just based off of you know just doing a lot more over 15 so Henry by decision for me"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Victor Henry, citing his volume, wrestling, and experience. He questions Jourdain's weight cut to bantamweight and notes his recent KO loss and poor performances. He believes Henry's well-rounded game and durability will allow him to outwork Jourdain, especially if Jourdain struggles with the cut. He expects a close decision but favors Henry.

"I'm going to side with the volume and Victor Henry."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Charles Jourdain

Daniel Vreeland picks Charles Jourdain to win his bantamweight debut, citing the size advantage after dropping down. He believes Jourdain's movement, kicks, and range will trouble Victor Henry, who has been outclassed by faster opponents. Vreeland notes Henry's toughness but thinks Jourdain's experience at higher weight classes and finally being the bigger fighter will lead to a win, though he wants to see the weigh-ins first.

"I'm gonna go Charles a Jordan to come out here and win his bantamweight debut"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry is a very experienced and difficult opponent who has never been finished in his 30-fight career. He will put a pace, pressure, and volume that Jourdain is not used to, allowing Henry to grind out a win on the scorecards.

"Henry has never been finished in his 30 fight career and I expect him to go out there and put a pace pressure and volume that Jourdain is not used to allowing Henry to grind this fight out and win …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 30, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul also picks Henry, noting his superior volume and wrestling. He is concerned about Jourdain's weight cut and recent knockout loss, and believes Henry's pressure and grappling will be too much. He sees the fight as close but expects Henry to edge it out, possibly by split decision.

"I'm with you I'm going to side with the volume and Victor Henry."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 31, 2024 (2 days before fight)

Charles Jourdain

The Guru picks Charles Jourdain over Victor Henry, citing Jourdain's physicality and dynamic striking. He believes Jourdain's clinch work and knees to the body will be key, and he predicts a TKO finish from the clinch. He notes that if Jourdain makes bantamweight effectively, he will have a significant advantage.

TKO from the clinch

"I'm going to go of Jordan with TKO I'm going to say it comes from the clinch"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Rani Yahya

TKO (head kick and punches) R3 2:36 · UFC on ESPN: Nicolau vs. Perez · Apr 27, 2024

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Victor Henry	0	54 of 109	49%	56 of 111	0 of 10	0%	0	0	0:48
Rani Yahya	2	109 of 205	53%	150 of 260	0 of 2	0%	0	0	3:09

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Victor Henry	0	21 of 39	53%	23 of 41	0 of 6	0%	0:48
1	Rani Yahya	0	19 of 30	63%	26 of 41	0 of 0	---	1:00
2	Victor Henry	0	24 of 51	47%	24 of 51	0 of 3	0%	0:00
2	Rani Yahya	1	56 of 115	48%	70 of 136	0 of 2	0%	0:38
3	Victor Henry	0	9 of 19	47%	9 of 19	0 of 1	0%	0:00
3	Rani Yahya	1	34 of 60	56%	54 of 83	0 of 0	---	1:31

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Victor Henry	54 of 109	49%	28 of 76	6 of 9	20 of 24	51 of 105	3 of 4	0 of 0
Rani Yahya	109 of 205	53%	84 of 176	21 of 24	4 of 5	89 of 173	2 of 5	18 of 27

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Victor Henry	21 of 39	53%	7 of 19	3 of 5	11 of 15	18 of 36	3 of 3	0 of 0
1	Rani Yahya	19 of 30	63%	13 of 24	4 of 4	2 of 2	17 of 26	2 of 4	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	24 of 51	47%	15 of 41	2 of 3	7 of 7	24 of 51	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Rani Yahya	56 of 115	48%	43 of 98	11 of 14	2 of 3	48 of 103	0 of 1	8 of 11
3	Victor Henry	9 of 19	47%	6 of 16	1 of 1	2 of 2	9 of 18	0 of 1	0 of 0
3	Rani Yahya	34 of 60	56%	28 of 54	6 of 6	0 of 0	24 of 44	0 of 0	10 of 16

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Rani Yahya vs. Victor Henry

Round 1
Yahya comes out throwing leg kicks. Henry looks to counter with punches and catches Yahya with a left hook. Yahya goes for a takedown and gets a waistlock. Henry gets thrown on the floor, but Henry gets back up. They separate. Henry lands a straight right to the body. Yahya goes for another takedown, but Henry gets up again immediately afterward. Henry can't get his offense off, as he has to keep defending against Yahya. The round ends with Yahya wildly throwing punches.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Yahya
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Yahya
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Yahya

Round 2
Yahya lands a nice overhand right. Yahya wildly dives for a leg but can't get it. Leg kick lands for Yahya. Henry pumping out his jab but isn't putting much power behind it. Yahya goes for a takedown, but it is stuffed. Henry eats a left hook. A right hook lands for Yahya. Henry sneaks in an elbow that hurts Yahya, and a left hand comes shortly afterward. Nice straight right by Henry. Yahya is getting backed up against the fence. Henry finding much more success this round. Henry uses his kicks to determine the distance. Henry lands a thudding right hand. Yahya's head is snapping back due to jabs. Henry throws Yahya off him and lets him back up. Henry is overwhelming Yahya with punches, who falls to the ground. Henry unloads with punches and landing hammerfists. Yahya survives the round.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-8 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 3
Henry comes out working his jab. Yahya is eating a lot of shots and dives for a takedown. Yahya looks for a leg. Henry is willing to go down to the ground and lands a nice punch. Henry allows his opponent back up. Yahya looks exhausted. Henry lands a push kick and follows up with a right hook that puts Yahya down. Yahya turtles up. Henry lands punches, but Yahya is able to get half-guard. Henry gets back up and starts punishing the body with punches.
A head kick lands for Henry. Yahya turtles up on the feet and the fight is waved off.
Yahya had nothing left after the beating he took in Round 2.

The Official Result
Victor Henry def. Rani Yahya via TKO (Head Kick and Punches); R3, 2:36.

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Apr 21, 2024 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Angelo is confident Victor Henry wins but refuses to touch the -500 line, calling it 'kick rocks.' He notes Rani Yahya looked old and slow in his last fight, getting knocked out, and that good things don't happen after that in MMA. He points out Henry has lost to a 40-year-old before (Raphael Assunção), making him unreliable at such short odds. He picks Henry but says if he were -150 he'd love it.

"I am confident that he wins he is going to be the pick and if he was minus 150 I'd love it minus 500 kick rocks dude no thanks"

We Want Picks

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Henry, calling him the best favorite on the card. He notes Yahya's one-dimensional BJJ and poor striking, and believes Henry's wrestling and grappling will neutralize Yahya. He expects a dominant decision or late finish.

"Victor Henry is undoubtedly the best player in the card but yeah he's the line the line is awful"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Daniel notes Henry has never been finished in 29 fights and has a catch wrestling background. He thinks Henry's output and striking will overwhelm Yahya, who is 42 and relies on jiu-jitsu. He expects Henry to look like a -400 favorite and win comfortably.

"I'm going with Victor Henry here"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 26, 2024 (1 day before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry has good defensive grappling and should be able to keep the fight upright, using his movement and output to chip away at Yahya. Yahya is dangerous on the ground but Henry's takedown defense is high level. I expect Henry to win on the scorecards. The over 2.5 rounds is also a good prop.

Over 2.5 rounds -150

"I'm still going to predict Victor Henry here and I think he ends up winning this fight on the scorecards"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 24, 2024 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul agrees, citing Yahya's age (40), inactivity, and lack of wrestling. He thinks Henry can mimic Ricky Simon's game plan of stuffing takedowns and landing strikes. He considers Henry a solid favorite despite the poor line.

"Victor Henry again I think he's one of the best favorites if not the best favorite on the entire card"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Lock picked Apr 23, 2024 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as one of the locks of the card. He criticizes Rani Yahya as very old at 39 and notes his recent losses to Montel Jackson and weak competition. He praises Henry's consistency, difficulty to finish, and ability to survive on the ground. He predicts a unanimous decision or late TKO, and says he would be very shocked if Henry loses.

unanimous decision or late TKO

"I'm going with Victor Henry man it's just uh it's kind of hard to pick against Victor Henry on this card if I'm honest with you guys very hard to pick V against Victor Henry think he's one of the …"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Javid Basharat

No Contest (accidental groin kick) R2 0:15 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Javid Basharat	0	30 of 43	69%	33 of 46	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:29
Victor Henry	0	25 of 36	69%	30 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:14

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Javid Basharat	29 of 42	69%	32 of 45	1 of 4	25%	0:29
1	Victor Henry	25 of 36	69%	30 of 41	0 of 1	0%	0:14
2	Javid Basharat	1 of 1	100%	1 of 1	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Victor Henry	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	---	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Javid Basharat	30 of 43	69%	8 of 21	8 of 8	14 of 14	26 of 39	4 of 4	0 of 0
Victor Henry	25 of 36	69%	3 of 10	6 of 6	16 of 20	23 of 34	2 of 2	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Javid Basharat	29 of 42	69%	8 of 21	8 of 8	13 of 13	25 of 38	4 of 4	0 of 0
1	Victor Henry	25 of 36	69%	3 of 10	6 of 6	16 of 20	23 of 34	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Javid Basharat	1 of 1	100%	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 1	1 of 1	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	0 of 0	---	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Javid Basharat vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Basharat (-535), Henry (+400)

Round 1
Referee Lukasz Bosacki will need to go into overdrive if he hopes to keep up with this next bout in the bantamweight division. With 14 wins opposite zero defeats, Basharat (14-0, 3-0 UFC) rockets his way into his pairing with proud UWF USA rep Henry (23-6, 2-1 UFC). Whether the victor needs 15 seconds or 15 minutes to get things done, one man may put himself in prime position at the talent-rich 135-pound category by prevailing. There is no glove touch to get this one started. Basharat walks through a leg kick and parries two jabs to get his own range. Henry kicks the leg, sweeping it out, and Basharat falls to the ground and climbs back up while wagging his finger. Both men trade leg kicks, and Henry breaks it up with a front kick. Basharat digs another kick on the calf, and Henry greets him with one back while ducking two looping punches. Basharat connects with another front kick, and he checks a kick. Henry swats out with multiple low kicks while Basharat crowds him, and when Basharat backs off, he plants a side kick on Henry’s waist. Basharat sneaks in a jab and follows it with an inside low kick, and Henry defends against a head kick while kicking low. Basharat gets off a left hand, and when he kicks the body, Henry catches it. Henry releases it after landing a few punches, and his own kick gets caught. This forces a scramble that results in both fighters hitting the mat, but the two are active enough to spring back up while still tied up. Basharat attempts a single, and he abandons it to go up high with a left hand on the break. Basharat chops with a kick and lands two punches, but it is his spinning back kick that finds its target with emphasis. Basharat scores kicks, and Henry does the same while getting one more checked. Henry doubles up on a kick from each leg, and he pecks away while Basharat slowly meanders towards him. Henry kicks the waist and closes in to hunt for an inside trip. The round ends with the two trading knees from up close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Basharat
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Basharat

Round 2
The 135ers meet one another in the middle of the cage,
Basharat kicks his opponent square in the groin to start off the round. Henry falls straight on his face and rolls around, moaning in agony.
Basharat tries to apologize, and Bosacki tells him to stay in the neutral corner. Henry shows no sign of improvement after 90 seconds, still on the ground in pain. There is a brief bit of discussion as to whether the strike landed on his groin, and Henry yells that it was all his genitals. After over three minutes, Henry is helped to his feet, but he is still totally compromised. Five full minutes elapse, and Bosacki waves the fight off, much to the displeasure of the crowd. The doctor incredulously tries to tell Henry that the strike should not have hurt him like it did, or that it was not a direct shot on his groin, but Henry is no actor and his reaction is quite legitimate. Henry’s corner, the legendary Josh Barnett, carries Henry out of the cage, as Henry is struggling to stay on his feet. As the foul was accidental and the time was early into Round 2, it should be declared a no contest.

The Official Result
Victor Henry vs. Javid Basharat is Ruled a No Contest (Accidental Groin Kick) R2 0:15

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Angelo is confident Javid Basharat dominates this fight with his wrestling. He notes Victor Henry's win over a Brazilian national champion wrestler (Him Barcelos) but thinks Javid's timing, control, and flow from striking to grappling will be too much. He has Javid in parlays.

parlay inclusion

"I think jvid dominates this fight I I think he absolutely dominates this fight"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat to win by decision, but expects a competitive fight. He notes that Victor Henry is being disrespected by the odds, as he has good cardio, toughness, and takedown defense. However, Basharat is younger, improving, and the UFC is pushing him. Brady believes Basharat can use wrestling to control the fight and win a close decision, possibly aided by judging in Abu Dhabi.

decision

"it's going to be BOS rat to win this fight bosra to win the fight by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Cody picks Basharat but is hesitant, noting that Basharat is talented but untested. He acknowledges Henry's wrestling and volume could make it close, but believes Basharat's speed and mixing of takedowns will edge him a decision. Cody does not love the price.

"Basharat because I think he's a little bit cleaner a little bit faster and I think the mixing in of the takedown will ultimately do it but I don't love it"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Daniel picks Javid Basharat to win but considers the -625 line too high. He praises Basharat's skills and youth but notes that Victor Henry has never been finished in 30 fights and has incredible volume, as seen in his fight against Barcelos. He expects a competitive fight where Basharat edges out a decision rather than dominating. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and suggests a small bet on Henry might be worthwhile.

Basharat minus 625, Henry plus 450; mentions possibility of a competitive decision and suggests a small bet on Henry

"My pick is Javid Basher at... but minus 625 implies that... he's going to run through him and has anyone ever ran through Victor Henry?"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Basharat is one of the best strikers with elite footwork and pull counters. He will touch up Henry whenever Henry crashes the pocket with volume. Basharat stays within himself and sticks to the game plan, likely winning by decision. This is a horrible stylistic matchup for Henry.

"I'm going to take bashra by decision but I believe that this is a great matchup for him to go out there possibly face some adversity but still end up coming out on top"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry as a dog, arguing that Basharat is overvalued and has not faced tough competition. He notes that Henry has excellent volume, takedown defense, and durability, and has fought higher-level opponents. Paul believes Henry's pressure and output will make the fight close, and at plus money, he sees value.

"I think it's a very very clear dogger pass with Victor Henry will be my pick here"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat by decision, but notes that Victor Henry is a live underdog worth betting. He compares their common opponent Tony Gravely, noting Basharat had a clearer win. He cites Basharat's youth (28 vs 36), reach, and height advantages. He expects a competitive fight with a swing round, but thinks Basharat will do a little more to win a decision.

Victor Henry as an underdog is worth some money; odds are Basharat over a 3-to-1 favorite, should be 2-to-1

"the fact that Victor Henry is as big of an underdog as he is it's worth some money like it really is worth some money"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Tony Gravely

Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Victor Henry	0	154 of 244	63%	190 of 281	0 of 0	---	2	1	1:20
Tony Gravely	0	75 of 154	48%	90 of 169	3 of 17	17%	0	0	3:22

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Victor Henry	29 of 53	54%	41 of 65	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
1	Tony Gravely	22 of 42	52%	25 of 45	1 of 7	14%	0	0	1:33
2	Victor Henry	71 of 107	66%	90 of 127	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:55
2	Tony Gravely	17 of 37	45%	18 of 38	2 of 6	33%	0	0	1:26
3	Victor Henry	54 of 84	64%	59 of 89	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:24
3	Tony Gravely	36 of 75	48%	47 of 86	0 of 4	0%	0	0	0:23

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Victor Henry	154 of 244	63%	92 of 176	55 of 60	7 of 8	102 of 183	46 of 55	6 of 6
Tony Gravely	75 of 154	48%	44 of 113	20 of 29	11 of 12	52 of 127	18 of 22	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Victor Henry	29 of 53	54%	11 of 35	14 of 14	4 of 4	22 of 44	7 of 9	0 of 0
1	Tony Gravely	22 of 42	52%	9 of 24	5 of 9	8 of 9	17 of 36	5 of 6	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	71 of 107	66%	42 of 76	28 of 30	1 of 1	45 of 74	20 of 27	6 of 6
2	Tony Gravely	17 of 37	45%	14 of 31	2 of 5	1 of 1	12 of 30	4 of 6	1 of 1
3	Victor Henry	54 of 84	64%	39 of 65	13 of 16	2 of 3	35 of 65	19 of 19	0 of 0
3	Tony Gravely	36 of 75	48%	21 of 58	13 of 15	2 of 2	23 of 61	9 of 10	4 of 4

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Tony Gravely vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-140), Gravely (+120)

Round 1
Well-traveled bantamweights Henry (22-6, 1-1 UFC) and Gravely (23-8, 4-3 UFC) come to blows in the next fight on the prelims. Referee Mark Smith laces his running shoes, as this one could take place anywhere and everywhere over the next three rounds if needed. There is a clap of hands to initiate the matchup, and Gravely leads the dance with a body kick. As their legs collide, a foot may have grazed the cup as Smith warns the fighters to stay careful. Gravely steps back and boots Henry in the lower leg as Henry is kicking higher, sweeping Henry off his feet and dumping him to the mat, Thai style. Henry climbs back up, and Gravely tries to do the same again. Henry gathers himself and walks forward with jabs, backing the shorter man up but not able to stop the inside calf kicks from popping him. Henry doubles up on a jab and kicks the side, and he catches Gravely coming in with a straight right hand. Henry connects with a front kick to the chest, and he has a lower body kick graze off the cup to elicit a warning but not draw a stoppage. Henry shucks off a possible level change and lets loose a head kick, and the two up close sling punches and kicks without budging. They break apart, and proceed to trade leather one after the other. Gravely pushes the pace in pursuit of a takedown, and he jams Henry back to the wall. Gravely works the body with knees while pressing on his opponent, and Henry breaks off and takes the center of the cage. Gravely scores two punches including a sharp uppercut, and Henry changes things up to blast the body with a side kick. Gravely pulls back on a low kick try, and Henry decides to follow through with his own, and he chains that kick into a few punches including an uppercut that splits the guard. Gravely sits down on a right hand that just misses, and a left that does connect as Henry tries to shoulder roll. Gravely crashes the pocket with a double, tripping Henry out and putting him on his seat for a second. “La Mangosta” powers back up thanks to the wall behind him, and Gravely circles around to take his back standing and slide a hook in for a trip. Gravely elects to lift Henry up in the air and drop him back down, and Henry springs back up. The two tumble to the mat as the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The bantamweights slap hands to get things started again, and they immediately engage recklessly and wildly. Henry lets off a few kicks, Gravely slings leather, and as Gravely takes a few punches, he changes levels and hits the deck on his face. Henry lets him back up and lays into him with a few punches, forcing Gravely to shoot in for an ill-advised takedown. Henry threatens with a front choke, and he lets it go to allow Gravely to stand up, so that he can continue working Gravely over. Henry slips punches and moves, frustrating Gravely and landing flush while Gravely responds hitting little more but air. Henry gets caught with an overhand right, but he grits his teeth and throws back with a vengeance. As Gravely gets teed off on, he looks to tie Henry up and take the fight down. Henry pushes him back and gets away with glove grabs to keep Gravely pinned to the wire. As Gravely looks to explode, Henry slashes with an elbow and chains a few punches together. Gravely leaps forward to take the fight down, and he successfully puts Henry on the floor. Henry tries to burst upright, and he manages to work his way up walking off the cage. Henry spins around, rips a knee to the body and makes Gravely back off. Henry continues assaulting Gravely’s body as Gravely backs off, and he strings punches and elbows together as he has Gravely on the ropes. Henry pounds knees to the body, and one makes Gravely drop down for a failed takedown entry. Henry’s pace is sky-high as he batters Gravely with everything and the kitchen sink, driving Gravely back to the wall. Gravely slows him down by clinching up and dropping down for a double, and Henry intercepts him with a barrage of elbows to the side of the head. The angle is very close, and Smith is watching closely to make sure the elbow strikes are legal, and Gravely drops to his knees from the damage. Gravely musters whatever energy he has to force Henry to the mat, but they land in a 50-50 position. Henry climbs right back up and knees Gravely repeatedly in the midsection. Gravely pushes off and aims a body kick, and Henry backs him off and continues striking until the bell and Smith’s intervention as the round has ended.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle to high five, and they pick up immediately where they left off. Gravely has a bit more space to throw hands back, but Henry’s pace drives him back to the wall and draws a takedown from Gravely. Gravely abandons it and throws hands with his opponent, and Henry welcomes this type of technical slugfest. Gravely drops down to his knees for another takedown effort, and Henry’s defense is immaculate as he keeps himself upright. Henry breaks off and takes a kick to his ribs, as Gravely unloads with a series of punches including a solid right hand that chin-checks Henry. “La Mangosta” does not bat an eye as he continues to throw caution to the wind, trading fists with his opponent and staying active with head movement. Gravely swings and misses with high-arcing strikes that Henry dodges, and Henry intercepts a takedown with a calf kick and a few knees to the dome. Gravely releases the grip and throws haymakers, and Henry staggers him with a few right back. Fighting in a phone booth, they trade ferocious leather one after the other, and strike totals are likely to be quite high at the fight’s conclusion. Henry backs off to measure a body kick, and Gravely throws hammers while Henry marks him up with a consistent and accurate salvo of blows. Henry connects with a few more strikes until he decides to go after a single, but this might be to catch his breath and not because he wants to change levels. Gravely belts him with a few looping shots, and as he moves down for a takedown, Henry drops down to hit the ground in pursuit of a leglock. Henry attacks a heel hook, and he bails on it to grab hold of a kneebar. Gravely defends with several solid punches to the body, and he slides his knee to a safer place and continues to beat on Henry. Henry loses the grip, and Gravely drops down on top of him to grab hold of an arm-triangle choke. Henry explodes upright, taking the back of his opponent but letting it go so they can keep trading. Henry knees him in the body as they are close up, and the wild fight comes to an end with the two tied up. The first and third rounds could be close on the scorecards, so this one might go either way.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry (30-27 Henry)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Gravely (29-28 Henry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Gravely (29-28 Henry)

The Official Result
Victor Henry def. Tony Gravely via Split Decision (30-27, 28-29, 29-28)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo leans toward Tony Gravely because of his wrestling and power, but acknowledges uncertainty about Victor Henry's takedown defense. He notes that if Henry's defense holds up like it did against Hani Barcelos, he could win dominantly, but if he performs as he did against Assunção, Gravely will take him down. He suggests a live bet if Gravely gets an early takedown.

live bet suggestion; takedown prop bets mentioned

"I'm gonna lead Gravely here right because we know what he will do... he's gonna have power in his hands and he's gonna just start blasting takedown so Gravely is going to be the the pick here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Big Brady slightly leans Victor Henry in a close fight. He notes Henry's takedown defense is very good and his get-up game is incredible, which will be a problem for Gravely who tends to slow down. Brady thinks Henry will keep the fight on the feet for a good chunk, using volume and cardio to outwork Gravely, but he has low confidence and expects a close decision.

"I do slightly lean with Victor Henry the way I see it playing out is you know Gravely going for takedowns the majority of them getting stuffed"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Henry, emphasizing his experience and wrestling defense. He thinks Henry can survive Gravely's early wrestling and take over in later rounds. He likes Henry by decision at +210.

Henry by decision +210

"I will take Victor Henry I'll take Victor Henry by decision"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Connor picks Henry confidently, noting that Henry is a builder who constantly increases pressure and output, while Gravely is a starter who fades. He compares it to the Bosch-Rott fight, where Gravely struggled with a similar style. Henry's length, jab, and ability to find openings should lead to a clear decision or late finish.

Henry -140, Gravely +120 to +125. Connor thinks Henry deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"Hard not to pick Victor Henry here. ... That loss was a reminder of how good a sense out is not a check on how good Victor Henry is."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Victor Henry

I believe Henry's forward pressure, volume, and ability to work back to his feet will overwhelm Gravely. Gravely relies on wrestling, but Henry has good takedown defense and an active guard. Henry's striking output will break Gravely down as the fight goes on. I expect Henry to win by decision, with a possible late finish.

"I am going to think or say that he wins this by decision just off of uh inevitable takedown defense which will start to get better as fight the fight starts to go on"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry, citing his volume and ability to outwork Gravely, who tends to fade after the first round. He likes the over 63.5 significant strikes prop for Henry on Prize Picks.

Henry over 63.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks

"I'll pick Henry and mostly based on volume"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry, believing he won't be held down by Tony Gravely. He thinks Henry will do more damage in between takedown attempts and out-hustle Gravely to a decision win. He notes Gravely lacks the slickness of Assunção and the power to earn respect.

by decision

"I'm gonna side with Victor Henry by decision I think he'll out hustle Tony Gravely in a decision back and forth fight 29-28 to him"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Zane picks Henry, agreeing that his constant pressure and building offense will overwhelm Gravely, who tends to start well but fade. He notes that Gravely's wrestling is not dominant enough to control Henry, and Henry's striking is more sophisticated. He sees it as a similar matchup to Gravely's loss to Bosch-Rott.

"Victor Henry will definitely clean your clock with a really good straight right hand or a big uppercut or something like that. So hard not to pick Victor Henry here."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Raphael Assunção

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Raphael Assunção	0	60 of 91	65%	78 of 110	2 of 5	40%	0	0	4:29
Victor Henry	0	55 of 126	43%	61 of 134	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Raphael Assunção	23 of 32	71%	23 of 32	0 of 2	0%	0:30
1	Victor Henry	22 of 48	45%	25 of 52	0 of 0	---	0:00
2	Raphael Assunção	17 of 29	58%	35 of 48	1 of 1	100%	2:16
2	Victor Henry	15 of 27	55%	17 of 30	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Raphael Assunção	20 of 30	66%	20 of 30	1 of 2	50%	1:43
3	Victor Henry	18 of 51	35%	19 of 52	0 of 1	0%	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Raphael Assunção	60 of 91	65%	40 of 65	8 of 12	12 of 14	42 of 70	15 of 16	3 of 5
Victor Henry	55 of 126	43%	23 of 85	22 of 26	10 of 15	51 of 120	4 of 6	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Raphael Assunção	23 of 32	71%	13 of 21	4 of 4	6 of 7	17 of 26	6 of 6	0 of 0
1	Victor Henry	22 of 48	45%	10 of 32	11 of 14	1 of 2	20 of 46	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Raphael Assunção	17 of 29	58%	11 of 20	2 of 4	4 of 5	9 of 18	5 of 6	3 of 5
2	Victor Henry	15 of 27	55%	4 of 13	5 of 5	6 of 9	14 of 26	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Raphael Assunção	20 of 30	66%	16 of 24	2 of 4	2 of 2	16 of 26	4 of 4	0 of 0
3	Victor Henry	18 of 51	35%	9 of 40	6 of 7	3 of 4	17 of 48	1 of 3	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raphael Assuncao vs. Victor Henry
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Henry (-345), Assuncao (+285)

Round 1
At the ripe age of 40, some believe the book on longtime bantamweight contender Assuncao (27-9, 11-6 UFC) is coming towards its conclusion soon. In hopes of snapping a career-long rough patch of four losses in a row, Assuncao will try to show there are still more pages to be written as he takes on the well-traveled Henry (22-5, 1-0 UFC). The 135ers clap hands ahead of their scheduled melee, and referee Kerry Hatley is prepped and ready for what is about to go down. Henry strikes first with a kick to the thigh, and Assuncao responds with the exact same strike. Henry stalks down the UFC vet and lines up a right hand, but he misses the mark. Assuncao is tentative and switching stances, with his own attack largely muted as he seems coiled to wait for a response. Henry rips the body with a kick, and Assuncao catches it, leading to them both trading punches while Henry’s right leg is in the air. Henry pulls his leg out and resets, and he advances while tossing out a front kick. Assuncao sits down on a heavy left hand that graces the chin, and Henry takes note and feints and fakes multiple times. Henry ducks this telegraphed punch and stings his man with a left, and his body kick lands again solidly. Assuncao pushes a front kick up the middle, and he swings a left hook when Henry bears down on him. Henry gets his leg grabbed again, and Assuncao once more cannot set him down, but Assuncao releases it and strings together a solid one-two. Henry blinks it out and continues his constant forward pressure, and they end up clinching him until he can shake off the grip. Assuncao throws with bad intentions, and “La Mangosta” dodges the worst of them and releases a right hand that pops Assuncao in the chops. The Brazilian evades the second such hook, and he snatches Henry and turns him to the wall. Henry shoves him away and gains some space, and he marches on while Assuncao backs himself to the cage on the other side. They trade heavy punches, and a body kick from Henry bounces off the cup. Assuncao shakes his cup and they do not pause, so Henry boots Assuncao upside the head. Assuncao shrugs it off so that he can throw heavy hands, and he fires off alternating punches while Henry is backed up on the fencing. Henry slides out of the way and pushes the action, mixing in body kicks, low kicks and punches. As Henry gets fancy with a crescent kick, Assuncao snipes him with a right hand. Henry wades forward to engage, but the bell sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The bantamweights take the center of the cage and begin trading low kicks, and as if they both got the same memo, they switch to front kicks. Henry spins with a back kick, and Assuncao does the same, while neither lands flush. Henry pressures his man while spamming low kicks, softening the Brazilian up and dodging the right hook that wings by him. Assuncao connects with that heavy blow when he tries again, and Henry shakes his head and spins with a wheel kick. Assuncao capitalizes on this and jumps on top to take top position. Henry defends with an armbar setup off his back, but the veteran savvy of Assuncao pays off and allows him to move through it and keep striking. After a handful of powerful fists land on the dome, Henry explodes and gets back to his feet, only to be met with a head kick. Henry shrugs it off and gets out of the close range so he can initiate the offense. Henry swipes out with a left hand, and some swelling has developed on both cheeks of Assuncao. The bantamweights throw hammers at one another in close range, and Henry tries for a kick only for it to get caught. Henry tries to slug it out, but Assuncao lines up several clean right hands to knock Henry from one side of the cage to the other, all while hopping away. Assuncao uses this awkward situation to hit a takedown, and he finds himself in early submission danger. Assuncao punches his way out of it to open a cut on the left side of Henry’s face, but Henry doggedly pursues an armbar. The longtime contender fights off various submission setups including a shoulder lock and a toe hold, and Henry works his way to his feet right before the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao

Round 3
A touch of gloves commences the final frame, and Henry walks his opponent down and gets slugged in the face with a right hand. Henry tries to make him may, but he gets clubbed with a left hook. Assuncao is connecting with clean, heavy counters, and Henry is taking a beating but still coming forward. Henry has kicks blocked and checked, but he slings a right hand that wobbles Assuncao. Henry strings several punches together, and Assuncao fires back with reckless abandon and far more power. Assuncao scoops up a leg and dumps Henry to the mat, and like the last two rounds, Henry threatens with a submission when landing. Assuncao turns through the possible triangle, but this allows Henry to stand back up. Henry walks Assuncao down and gets punched in the face for his effort, but not before landing a few shots of his own. Henry lashes out with an elbow, and Assuncao backs off and gives him a thumbs-up for the effective blow. Assuncao catches a body kick and drives Henry from wall to wall, but this time, there is no takedown to be had. Henry springs away and walks into a crisp right hand, and Henry shakes it out and eats a follow-up right hand. Henry slides out of the way from a power punch, but they are not one-and-done for the grizzled veteran. Henry absorbs a pair of knees up the middle as they get too close, and he resets and rushes forward with a right hand and a body kick. Assuncao clinches him up, and Henry attempts to dump him down but settles to release him and line up a solid one-two. Assuncao dives down for a double, where he switches to a single and picks Henry’s right leg up but cannot get the leverage to ground him. Henry tries to sneak in short shots on the inside while Assuncao is still hanging on to the leg, and he manages to keep his balance with his back against the wire. Henry sets it down with 10 seconds to spare, and Assuncao cracks him with a left hand. Henry races after him in hopes of one last ditch effort, but the bell rings to conclude the close match before he can reach his aging but very game opponent.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Assuncao (29-28 Assuncao)

The Official Result
Raphael Assuncao def. Victor Henry via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Angelo picks Victor Henry, citing his impressive UFC debut over Honey Barcelos where he landed 222 strikes and defended six takedowns. He notes that Assunção is on a four-fight losing streak and older, but warns that the line (3-to-1) is wide and that Honey Barcelos looked bad in that fight. He thinks Victor wins but cautions that the odds may be too high for a confident bet.

Line is wide; premium members may have bets involving Henry

"I like Victor in this spot with that being said this line is absolutely why it's a very wide line"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Big Brady confidently picks Victor Henry to win by decision. He notes that Assunção is 40, on a four-fight skid, and has very low volume, while Henry throws a ton of strikes (352 in his last fight). He believes Henry's pressure and output will overwhelm Assunção, and that Assunção's only path is wrestling, but Henry's takedown defense looked good against Barcelos. Brady sees a potential late finish but calls it a decision.

"this should be Victor Henry all day and it's not even close"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Victor Henry confidently, citing his impressive performance against Ronnie Barcelos where he landed 180 significant strikes. He notes Henry has volume, wrestling, and has fought tough competition in Japan. He thinks Assunção is old, slow, and has declined, and Henry should win by decision or TKO.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (mentioned by Paul, Cody agrees)

"I'm picking Victor Victor Henry but I got minus 400 it's like how often does he win this fight like eight out of 10 times."

Bookie Beatdown

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry is younger and in his prime, while Assunção is 40 and on a four-fight losing streak, with three finishes. Henry's pressure and volume should overwhelm Assunção, who may have declined durability. Henry is not a big power puncher, so a decision is likely. The host recommends parlaying Henry or taking the decision prop at +120.

Victor Henry by decision +120

"I will be in on uh the Victor Henry side here minus 330 sure you could possibly parlay it or even if you just want to go diving into the the the props here via decision is sitting at plus …"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul is confident in Victor Henry, noting his extensive career in Japan with wins over multiple UFC veterans. He thinks Henry's volume and wrestling will be too much for Assunção, who is 40 years old and has been knocked out in his last two fights. He picks Henry by decision but notes a TKO is possible.

under 70.5 significant strikes for Henry on PrizePicks (he argues no one has landed over 65 on Assunção in years)

"I got Victor Henry all day... he's got the volume he's got the wrestling."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

The MMA Guru picks Victor Henry as a no-brainer, citing his impressive short-notice win over Hani Barcelos. He notes that Assunção has shown a chin change after KO losses and may be hesitant. He believes Henry's pressure, size, and reach advantage will break Assunção over three rounds, winning by unanimous decision 30-27.

prediction: unanimous decision 30-27

"no brainer Victor Henry in my opinion"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Raoni Barcelos

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Victor Henry	0	134 of 277	48%	134 of 277	1 of 7	14%	0	0	0:15
Raoni Barcelos	0	181 of 352	51%	222 of 397	0 of 1	0%	0	0	1:37

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Victor Henry	40 of 79	50%	40 of 79	1 of 3	33%	0:09
1	Raoni Barcelos	54 of 113	47%	61 of 120	0 of 0	---	0:13
2	Victor Henry	39 of 92	42%	39 of 92	0 of 2	0%	0:06
2	Raoni Barcelos	58 of 115	50%	60 of 117	0 of 0	---	0:08
3	Victor Henry	55 of 106	51%	55 of 106	0 of 2	0%	0:00
3	Raoni Barcelos	69 of 124	55%	101 of 160	0 of 1	0%	1:16

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Victor Henry	134 of 277	48%	107 of 244	10 of 14	17 of 19	125 of 267	8 of 8	1 of 2
Raoni Barcelos	181 of 352	51%	102 of 252	64 of 83	15 of 17	163 of 325	18 of 27	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Victor Henry	40 of 79	50%	32 of 71	2 of 2	6 of 6	38 of 76	1 of 1	1 of 2
1	Raoni Barcelos	54 of 113	47%	28 of 75	22 of 34	4 of 4	44 of 99	10 of 14	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	39 of 92	42%	31 of 81	3 of 4	5 of 7	37 of 90	2 of 2	0 of 0
2	Raoni Barcelos	58 of 115	50%	32 of 85	18 of 21	8 of 9	57 of 111	1 of 4	0 of 0
3	Victor Henry	55 of 106	51%	44 of 92	5 of 8	6 of 6	50 of 101	5 of 5	0 of 0
3	Raoni Barcelos	69 of 124	55%	42 of 92	24 of 28	3 of 4	62 of 115	7 of 9	0 of 0

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Raoni Barcelos vs. Victor Henry

Round 1
For the first time on the card – and in the preliminary headliner, no less – a fighter will come in with a winning UFC record. Brazilian bantamweight Barcelos (16-2, 5-1 UFC) is responsible for that record above .500, and he will be taking on the debuting Henry (21-5, 0-0 UFC) in what has been a theme for the evening thus far. Lacing up his running shoes is referee Jason Herzog, who may be needed for 15 seconds or 15 minutes, as these two gentlemen move fast. They do not bother touching hands, and get things going in a hurry as Henry throws out a front kick. Barcelos comes back with a few punches and an inside leg kick, but he gets clipped with an overhand right from the newcomer. Henry chops at the lead leg of the Brazilian, and he follows it with one to the outside. Barcelos delivers the ball of his foot to Henry’s chest, and they proceed to slip and trade blistering uppercuts without budging. Both men wear it well, and Barcelos gets the better of the exchange as he walks through and staggers Henry with a follow-up combo. Henry comes forward to slow the momentum down of his foe, and he walks forward with a knee to the chest. Barcelos backs off and sits down on a right hand, and it snaps Henry’s head back but does not appear to hurt him. Henry is loading up on responsive strikes, but Barcelos is quicker, slipping strikes and countering effectively. Barcelos lands flush with another right hand, and Henry comes back at him with one of his own that appears to rock the Brazilian. Barcelos comes forward with a possible chin-saving takedown, and Henry pushes him away and the both reset. They come together in a flurry, and Henry takes a hard right hand and stumbles. Barcelos comes after him with a few more strikes, but he does not get overaggressive and proceeds to technically work Henry off from a distance. Henry is still game, as he throws back hard and gets Barcelos’ attention. They both land flush on the other, and Henry goes up high with a kick that grazes off the head. Henry does not allow Barcelos to breathe, constantly sticking strikes in his opponent’s face, but Barcelos is able to use head movement to evade the shots. Henry throws a body kick, and Barcelos catches it and throws Henry to the mat. Barcelos lets him back up and suddenly finds Henry coming at him like a bat out of hell. “La Mangosta” throws everything he has at Barcelos, stinging him and doing enough damage to hurt Barcelos and back him up. Henry does not let him off the hook, laying into him with powerful uppercuts until the bell sounds to end the thrilling round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Barcelos
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 2
The second round starts about as furious as the first ended, only Barcelos appears recovered and wiling to throw back even with his nose busted up. They throw down, and Barcelos sits down on an uppercut that tags Henry about as cleanly as it could, but the Josh Barnett disciple is not fazed. Henry continues to pressure Barcelos, and he slips a few punches as Barcelos’ movement and evasiveness is not what it was in the last round. Henry gains a little space to score a front kick up the middle, and chains it into several punches. Henry turns the power down and his volume up, landing flush but not swinging with everything he has. Barcelos winds up with power, and Henry partially deflects it but it still had a major impact. Barcelos lands an inside leg kick or two, and Henry appears to be struggling with it as he anticipatorily picks it up when Barcelos is going to kick. Henry bites down on his gumshield and starts throwing with bad intentions, and Barcelos backs away to gather his bearings as a few of them hurt. Barcelos’ nose is a mess as he continues to get peppered with punches, and Henry sneaks strikes around and through the guard. Barcelos uncorks several bombs that detonate on the chin of his opponent, and Henry takes them all cleanly and fires right back. Barcelos wings a left hand and a right, and several more as Henry tries to counter. Henry clips him with a short elbow, and Barcelos rushes in and secures a quick takedown. Henry pops right back up and the two begin to trade recklessly again, with little concern for defense as they keep connecting on one another. Henry sticks him with a punch, ducks back and narrowly evades a spinning wheel kick, and he comes back in to land as Barcelos sets his foot down. The close round ends with a tense exchange.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Henry
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry

Round 3
The bantamweights meet in the middle and are not afraid to engage, with them reintroducing themselves to one another with front kicks up the middle. Barcelos leans forward with punches, and Henry ducks back and lands a popping kick to the body. Barcelos clubs him back with a few punches, and Henry will not back down and give ground. Barcelos scores a leg kick that makes Henry turn around, and Barcelos cracks him with an overhand right that stuns him momentarily. Henry comes right back, ready to brawl it out in very close proximity. They both land flush, and Barcelos gets off a front kick and fakes for a takedown. He succeeds to get Henry off-balance to crack him with a right hand, and Henry laughs it off and proceeds to brawl it out. The pace is astounding, as are the strike totals at this point, and they are evenly matched and giving it all they have. Henry catches Barcelos with a left, a right and an uppercut, and Barcelos is hurt and staggering back. Barcelos chomps down on his mouthpiece and wings a right hand that nails Henry on the side of the head, only for Henry to completely disregard it and continue his assault. Henry bullies Barcelos back to the wall, and he starts working Barcelos’ thighs with powerful knees. Henry is able to make Barcelos lean face-first into the wall so he can grip his hands around him from behind, and he lands a few more strikes until Barcelos spins out. When the Brazilian turns, Henry greets him with a knee right down Broadway. Barcelos eats it like a bowl of Acai so that he can try to return fire, and Henry ducks down face-first into a head kick. Henry appears in danger, and Barcelos senses this and winds up with a barrage of power shots that knock Henry around but do not rock him. Henry is able to keep his wits about him to avoid dangerous blows and ducks away, and Barcelos follows him with a frenzied attack. Henry surprises him with preemptive counters, and they back off to gather themselves with seconds to go, and they throw a few more punches at one another right to the final bell. What a battle, and what an impressive debut from Henry on short notice against an established name like Barcelos.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Henry (29-28 Henry)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Henry (30-27 Henry)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Henry (30-27 Henry)

The Official Result
Victor Henry def. Raoni Barcelos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Angelo picks Raoni Barcelos, praising his well-rounded skills including power, speed, striking, wrestling, and BJJ. He expects Barcelos to have a tough time on the feet but then move to grappling where he has a solid advantage. He likes the under on rounds as a prop bet, predicting a finish.

under on rounds

"i like bar solos to win victor henry is dangerous he's the exact type of fight that these hot prospects tend to showcase their skills in so i'm not going to touch the money line because it's absolutely absurd absurd …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Big Brady picks Raoni Barcelos to win by decision, citing Barcelos being on another level compared to Henry. He notes Henry's takedown defense and get-up game are not great, and Barcelos has a black belt in BJJ to control Henry on the ground. He expects Barcelos to win the first two rounds comfortably and notes Henry has never been finished in 26 fights, so decision is likely. The only concern is Barcelos' gas tank, but he still sees Barcelos winning easily.

Barcelos by decision; mentions Henry never finished

"i'm going to take barcelos to win i'm going to take him to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Cody picks Raoni Barcelos, stating that Barcelos is better than Victor Henry in every facet: boxing, wrestling, jiu-jitsu, and cardio. He notes that Barcelos has a wrestling background and is a BJJ black belt. However, Cody warns that Barcelos sometimes fights bad game plans, as seen in his last fight. He considers Barcelos a second-ticket play rather than a top-ticket due to the high price.

"Ronnie Barcelos meanwhile... he's got better technical boxing, wrestling, jiu-jitsu... he's better than Victor Henry in every facet of the game."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Daniel Levi confidently picks Raoni Barcelos to win. He praises Barcelos' boxing and jiu-jitsu, calling him a black belt under a red belt. Levi believes Barcelos is undefeated in the UFC (disputing the loss to Timur Valiev) and that Victor Henry, while tough and never finished, is outmatched. He expects Barcelos to dominate everywhere and predicts a first-round submission or knockout. Levi criticizes Barcelos' management for taking risky fights with little reward.

Barcelos by first-round submission or KO

"i only is going to beat this guy up man there's no i mean i'm sure this kid will be back his next fight but there's no point to you know elaborate too much on it how he's just better …"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

The host believes Barcelos is the better fighter in all areas: striking, wrestling, and jiu-jitsu. He thinks Henry's only path to victory is if Barcelos has a poor performance like he did against Timur Valiev. He expects Barcelos to win by decision but also likes the submission prop at +455. He plans to use Barcelos in parlays.

Barcelos by submission (+455), Barcelos in parlays

"i like uh barcelos in the spot as long as he goes out and out there and throws right i'm hoping that the timur valley fight isn't a sign that he's trying to age"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

Paul picks Raoni Barcelos, agreeing with Cody that Barcelos is the superior fighter. He notes that the line has moved from -375 to -500, indicating public support. Paul believes Barcelos should win but acknowledges the high price makes it less attractive for a large bet.

"I feel like they jacked it up... even more people are still piling on regardless."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Raoni Barcelos

The MMA Guru picks Raoni Barcelos, calling him a missed gem of the UFC. He notes Barcelos' delayed career due to cancellations but trusts his skills, including leg kicks and takedown defense. He predicts a dominant 30-26 decision, as Victor Henry is tough but not at Barcelos' level.

"i'm going with handy barcelos by decision because he's had a bit more of a camp and i'm talking about henry so barcelos decision 30 26"

THE MMA GURU

Tony Gravely - Fight History

LOSS vs Victor Henry

Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Victor Henry	0	154 of 244	63%	190 of 281	0 of 0	---	2	1	1:20
Tony Gravely	0	75 of 154	48%	90 of 169	3 of 17	17%	0	0	3:22

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Victor Henry	29 of 53	54%	41 of 65	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:01
1	Tony Gravely	22 of 42	52%	25 of 45	1 of 7	14%	0	0	1:33
2	Victor Henry	71 of 107	66%	90 of 127	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:55
2	Tony Gravely	17 of 37	45%	18 of 38	2 of 6	33%	0	0	1:26
3	Victor Henry	54 of 84	64%	59 of 89	0 of 0	---	2	1	0:24
3	Tony Gravely	36 of 75	48%	47 of 86	0 of 4	0%	0	0	0:23

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Victor Henry	154 of 244	63%	92 of 176	55 of 60	7 of 8	102 of 183	46 of 55	6 of 6
Tony Gravely	75 of 154	48%	44 of 113	20 of 29	11 of 12	52 of 127	18 of 22	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Victor Henry	29 of 53	54%	11 of 35	14 of 14	4 of 4	22 of 44	7 of 9	0 of 0
1	Tony Gravely	22 of 42	52%	9 of 24	5 of 9	8 of 9	17 of 36	5 of 6	0 of 0
2	Victor Henry	71 of 107	66%	42 of 76	28 of 30	1 of 1	45 of 74	20 of 27	6 of 6
2	Tony Gravely	17 of 37	45%	14 of 31	2 of 5	1 of 1	12 of 30	4 of 6	1 of 1
3	Victor Henry	54 of 84	64%	39 of 65	13 of 16	2 of 3	35 of 65	19 of 19	0 of 0
3	Tony Gravely	36 of 75	48%	21 of 58	13 of 15	2 of 2	23 of 61	9 of 10	4 of 4

Play-by-Play

View on Sherdog

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

live bet suggestion; takedown prop bets mentioned

"I'm gonna lead Gravely here right because we know what he will do... he's gonna have power in his hands and he's gonna just start blasting takedown so Gravely is going to be the the pick here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

"I do slightly lean with Victor Henry the way I see it playing out is you know Gravely going for takedowns the majority of them getting stuffed"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Henry, emphasizing his experience and wrestling defense. He thinks Henry can survive Gravely's early wrestling and take over in later rounds. He likes Henry by decision at +210.

Henry by decision +210

"I will take Victor Henry I'll take Victor Henry by decision"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry -140, Gravely +120 to +125. Connor thinks Henry deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"Hard not to pick Victor Henry here. ... That loss was a reminder of how good a sense out is not a check on how good Victor Henry is."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Victor Henry

"I am going to think or say that he wins this by decision just off of uh inevitable takedown defense which will start to get better as fight the fight starts to go on"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry, citing his volume and ability to outwork Gravely, who tends to fade after the first round. He likes the over 63.5 significant strikes prop for Henry on Prize Picks.

Henry over 63.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks

"I'll pick Henry and mostly based on volume"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

by decision

"I'm gonna side with Victor Henry by decision I think he'll out hustle Tony Gravely in a decision back and forth fight 29-28 to him"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

"Victor Henry will definitely clean your clock with a really good straight right hand or a big uppercut or something like that. So hard not to pick Victor Henry here."

MMA Vivisection

LOSS vs Javid Basharat

Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Sandhagen vs. Song · Sep 17, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Javid Basharat	0	33 of 113	29%	39 of 119	2 of 13	15%	0	0	1:43
Tony Gravely	0	80 of 149	53%	106 of 177	2 of 4	50%	0	0	3:13

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Javid Basharat	15 of 42	35%	15 of 42	2 of 4	50%	1:12
1	Tony Gravely	17 of 36	47%	24 of 43	1 of 1	100%	0:20
2	Javid Basharat	5 of 22	22%	11 of 28	0 of 5	0%	0:27
2	Tony Gravely	21 of 31	67%	40 of 52	1 of 2	50%	2:42
3	Javid Basharat	13 of 49	26%	13 of 49	0 of 4	0%	0:04
3	Tony Gravely	42 of 82	51%	42 of 82	0 of 1	0%	0:11

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Javid Basharat	33 of 113	29%	17 of 84	2 of 11	14 of 18	30 of 106	3 of 7	0 of 0
Tony Gravely	80 of 149	53%	50 of 113	24 of 30	6 of 6	69 of 134	6 of 10	5 of 5

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Javid Basharat	15 of 42	35%	7 of 30	2 of 4	6 of 8	14 of 39	1 of 3	0 of 0
1	Tony Gravely	17 of 36	47%	7 of 24	7 of 9	3 of 3	14 of 31	3 of 5	0 of 0
2	Javid Basharat	5 of 22	22%	3 of 15	0 of 5	2 of 2	4 of 19	1 of 3	0 of 0
2	Tony Gravely	21 of 31	67%	14 of 23	5 of 6	2 of 2	14 of 23	2 of 3	5 of 5
3	Javid Basharat	13 of 49	26%	7 of 39	0 of 2	6 of 8	12 of 48	1 of 1	0 of 0
3	Tony Gravely	42 of 82	51%	29 of 66	12 of 15	1 of 1	41 of 80	1 of 2	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Angelo picks Basharat because he is more well-rounded, with excellent offensive and defensive wrestling and technical striking. He notes that Gravely is a dominant wrestler but has cardio issues and questionable submission defense. Angelo acknowledges that Gravely's pressure and takedown attempts could be a problem, but believes Basharat's footwork and striking advantage will carry him.

"i do like javid here ultimately i think he's gonna get the win but there's a world where gravely pressures forward gets the takedown and goes from there"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Big Brady picks Javid Basharat to win, but with hesitation. He acknowledges that Tony Gravely has fought much better competition and has a phenomenal wrestling resume, but Brady is concerned about Gravely's cardio, chin, and submission defense. Brady notes that Basharat is dangerous everywhere—striking, wrestling, and submissions—and thinks Basharat can catch Gravely in a submission as the fight goes on. He also mentions that Gravely has been finished six times (five by submission). However, Brady says he would not bet the moneyline due to question marks about Basharat's takedown defense, which hasn't been tested against a wrestler of Gravely's caliber.

second round submission

"I'll say he eventually does catch gravely in a submission i think java is a very good grappler so uh basharat i'll say basharat by second round sub"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Cody agrees, citing Basharat's size, cardio, and durability. He notes Gravely's tendency to get submitted when tired and that Basharat's wrestling and pressure will be key. He thinks Basharat can survive early adversity and win.

"i think bosch can eventually just you know break on through to the other side"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Daniel Levi leans Javid Basharat due to his output, length, and well-roundedness, but is not confident. He sees Tony Gravely as a tough prospect tester with power and wrestling, but prone to bonehead mistakes. He thinks Basharat projects higher but this is a tough test. He does not bet, preferring to watch.

"I'm a lean javid because i love the output i love the tenacity i love the well-roundedness but gravley's clearly fought the better level of competition"

Half the Battle

Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Jacob picks Basharat, agreeing with Angelo that Gravely will wrestle nonstop but that Basharat's footwork and technical striking give him a major advantage. He notes that Gravely's takedowns are not always successful and that Basharat can keep it standing. Jacob also mentions that the minus 150 odds are more appetizing than the initial two-to-one line.

"i think this is javid's fight to lose i i love his footwork he's in and out in the striking should have a major advantage in the striking"

We Want Picks

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Sep 16, 2022 (1 day before fight)

Javid Basharat

Basharat has slick striking and excellent defensive grappling, which should neutralize Gravely's takedowns. Gravely may land takedowns but struggles to keep opponents down, and Basharat will work back to his feet and land bigger shots. Basharat's cardio and finishing ability are factors. I like Basharat by decision at +300 or a late finish. However, this is Basharat's toughest test, so I'm not betting the moneyline.

Basharat by decision at +300, Basharat in round 3 at +1000

"give me Javid Javid by decision but a late finish in his favor is absolutely possible in this spot"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

Paul thinks Basharat's cardio and durability will wear down Gravely, who tends to fade. He notes Gravely's losses come from being broken down over time. He expects Basharat to out-grapple and out-last Gravely.

"javid will be the pick for milwaukee"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Javid Basharat

The MMA Guru picks Javid Basharat by 29-28 decision. He thinks Tony Gravely is talented but perhaps overrated, noting his close fights and losses to Nate Maness and Brett Johns. He believes Basharat is on that level, trains at a great gym, and will out-strike Gravely on the feet, ripping the body and landing head shots. He expects Gravely to win the first round via grappling but Basharat to take over in rounds 2 and 3 based on damage.

"i'm going to say a 29-28 decision for javid basher out on damage"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Johnny Muñoz Jr.

KO (punches) R1 1:08 · UFC Fight Night: Volkov vs. Rozenstruik · Jun 04, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	2 of 7	28%	2 of 7	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1	5 of 15	33%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	0	2 of 7	28%	2 of 7	0 of 1	0%	0	0	0:00
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	1	5 of 15	33%	6 of 16	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:03

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	2 of 7	28%	0 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 15	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	2 of 7	28%	0 of 5	0 of 0	2 of 2	2 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0
1	Johnny Muñoz Jr.	5 of 15	33%	4 of 12	0 of 0	1 of 3	2 of 11	0 of 0	3 of 4

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 29, 2022 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo highlights Tony Gravely's relentless wrestling and high takedown average, but notes his questionable submission defense and cardio issues. Johnny Muñoz is a BJJ black belt with slick grappling. Angelo is split because five of Gravely's losses are by submission and seven of Muñoz's wins are by submission. He ultimately picks Gravely because he believes Gravely will dictate the fight with top control, but acknowledges the risk of getting caught.

"my gut is saying stick with tony because if nothing else i am positive he's gonna wrestle i'm positive that he'll be on top and he will get a good amount of control"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Johnny Muñoz Jr.

Big Brady picks Johnny Muñoz Jr. as an underdog to win by submission, likely in the third round. He notes that while Gravely is a relentless wrestler, Muñoz is a black belt in BJJ who wants the fight on the mat. He compares it to the Bartosz-Swabinski vs. Gerald Meerschaert fight where the wrestler took down the grappler and got submitted. He thinks Gravely will get takedowns but Muñoz will capitalize on submission opportunities, especially as Gravely slows down. He also mentions Muñoz's size advantage.

Muñoz by submission, round 3

"I'm going to take the dog here and johnny munoz jr i'm going to be looking for that sub prop as well"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody picks Gravely, noting his athleticism and wrestling. He thinks Muñoz's striking is poor and Gravely can win on the feet or via takedowns. He is confident but expects to sweat due to Gravely's past mistakes.

"i'm definitely gonna have some tony gravely but the entire time you're gonna be sweating"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jun 2, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely, acknowledging the submission threat from Muñoz but believing Gravely is the better fighter overall. He expects Gravely to win a decision if he avoids mistakes, but admits Muñoz has a clear path via submission. He will not bet the fight but may take small shots on Muñoz submission props.

"as a pure pick i'm gonna go with gravley here because i just think he's the better fighter it's just that i know there's this chance that he's gonna be winning the entire fight and [ __ ] it up"

Half the Battle

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jun 1, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and striking advantage. He notes Muñoz's lack of striking and inactivity. He thinks Gravely can win via sprawl-and-brawl or wrestling, but acknowledges Gravely's tendency to make mistakes.

"i think tony gravely i think the price makes sense to me"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 30, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely by 30-27 unanimous decision. He criticizes Muñoz's padded resume and notes that Gravely performed better than Muñoz against common opponent Nate Maness, nearly finishing him. He believes Gravely has superior striking and scrambling, and will mix up takedowns to dominate. He expects Muñoz to have some submission attempts but Gravely to escape.

"tony gravely 30 27 unanimous decision win over johnny munoz"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Saimon Oliveira

Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	46 of 99	46%	66 of 132	11 of 15	73%	0	0	11:28
Saimon Oliveira	0	35 of 71	49%	50 of 87	0 of 0	---	4	0	0:15

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	5 of 21	23%	14 of 36	2 of 5	40%	0	4:31
1	Saimon Oliveira	4 of 6	66%	5 of 7	0 of 0	---	2	0:03
2	Tony Gravely	20 of 44	45%	25 of 51	4 of 5	80%	0	3:33
2	Saimon Oliveira	18 of 29	62%	21 of 33	0 of 0	---	0	0:12
3	Tony Gravely	21 of 34	61%	27 of 45	5 of 5	100%	0	3:24
3	Saimon Oliveira	13 of 36	36%	24 of 47	0 of 0	---	2	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	46 of 99	46%	36 of 87	4 of 6	6 of 6	24 of 50	4 of 7	18 of 42
Saimon Oliveira	35 of 71	49%	21 of 53	9 of 13	5 of 5	27 of 62	8 of 9	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	5 of 21	23%	4 of 20	0 of 0	1 of 1	2 of 5	0 of 0	3 of 16
1	Saimon Oliveira	4 of 6	66%	2 of 4	1 of 1	1 of 1	4 of 6	0 of 0	0 of 0
2	Tony Gravely	20 of 44	45%	15 of 38	4 of 5	1 of 1	9 of 23	2 of 4	9 of 17
2	Saimon Oliveira	18 of 29	62%	11 of 22	4 of 4	3 of 3	10 of 20	8 of 9	0 of 0
3	Tony Gravely	21 of 34	61%	17 of 29	0 of 1	4 of 4	13 of 22	2 of 3	6 of 9
3	Saimon Oliveira	13 of 36	36%	8 of 27	4 of 8	1 of 1	13 of 36	0 of 0	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely despite the submission threat from Oliveira. He believes Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will be effective, similar to how Arjan Bhullar beat Oliveira. However, he warns that five of Gravely's seven losses are by submission, and Oliveira has 11 submission wins, so he will be looking at prop bets.

looking at prop bets

"i'm still gonna pick tony gravy to win here i think he'll have solid pressure and smother olivera similar to how you know ari ferrius beat oliveira but tony needs to watch out for elbows from the bottom and avoid …"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by first or second round knockout, citing his power advantage and superior competition. He notes Oliveira's record is padded and he is hittable. Gravely has multiple paths: knockout on the feet or takedown and ground-and-pound. The only concern is Gravely has been submitted before, but those were against elite grapplers. He expects Gravely to finish Oliveira early.

Gravely by KO in rounds 1-2; mentions Oliveira's padded record

"i'm going to take gravely to win by i'm going to say first or second round knockout"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody picks Tony Gravely, citing his collegiate wrestling, developing boxing, and power. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished and has poor defensive tendencies, leaving himself open to big shots. Cody believes Gravely's wrestling and striking will be too much, but warns that Gravely has cardio issues and can be reckless. He likes Gravely by knockout but notes the decision is possible.

Tony Gravely by knockout +225 at DraftKings

"Gravely is my pick... Gravely by knockout."

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Saimon Oliveira

Daniel Levi picks Saimon Oliveira as an underdog. He notes that Tony Gravely has a history of mental lapses, getting submitted or knocked out after dominating early rounds. Oliveira is experienced (18-3), has fought tough competition like Ari Farias, and has knockout power and opportunistic submissions. Levi believes Gravely will muscle Oliveira around early but eventually leave his neck or chin out, allowing Oliveira to capitalize and get his first UFC win. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation.

Oliveira by opportunistic finish (submission or KO); +205 underdog

"i think that simon oliveira is going to capitalize and actually get his first ufc win"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)

Saimon Oliveira

The host leans Oliveira because he believes Gravely's cardio is suspect and that Oliveira has advantages on the feet and in the clinch. He notes that Gravely tends to fade in later rounds and that Oliveira has good guillotine chokes if Gravely shoots desperately. He expects Oliveira to win by submission in the third round, but he is not confident enough to bet it heavily; he may take a small play on under 2.5 rounds.

Oliveira inside the distance (+400), under 2.5 rounds (+115)

"i do lean oliveira ever so slightly though i do think that he'll likely lose the first round so possibly a live betting opportunity there"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul picks Tony Gravely, agreeing that Gravely's wrestling and power are key. He notes that Oliveira has never been finished but puts himself in positions to get sparked. Paul warns that Gravely's cardio is a concern and that he gassed against Nate Maness. He advises not going too heavy on Gravely due to these risks.

"The pick is Tony Gravely but I've learned a little bit more, I don't want to go super high on him."

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely, though hesitant due to Gravely's recent KO loss. He notes Gravely's tough competition and training at 80T, and believes his grappling and stand-up will be enough. He was unimpressed by Oliveira's contender series performance and predicts a close 29-28 decision.

"tony gravely gets this one done i wasn't too impressed by the contender series performance of oliveira"

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Nate Maness

TKO (punches) R2 2:10 · UFC Fight Night: Smith vs. Spann · Sep 18, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Nate Maness	1	31 of 63	49%	64 of 98	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:15
Tony Gravely	1	36 of 68	52%	44 of 77	1 of 6	16%	0	0	2:26

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Nate Maness	0	15 of 35	42%	45 of 65	1 of 1	100%	0:09
1	Tony Gravely	1	26 of 41	63%	32 of 48	1 of 5	20%	1:53
2	Nate Maness	1	16 of 28	57%	19 of 33	0 of 0	---	0:06
2	Tony Gravely	0	10 of 27	37%	12 of 29	0 of 1	0%	0:33

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Nate Maness	31 of 63	49%	26 of 57	5 of 6	0 of 0	21 of 52	2 of 2	8 of 9
Tony Gravely	36 of 68	52%	18 of 43	8 of 11	10 of 14	25 of 55	8 of 10	3 of 3

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Nate Maness	15 of 35	42%	12 of 31	3 of 4	0 of 0	13 of 33	2 of 2	0 of 0
1	Tony Gravely	26 of 41	63%	11 of 23	6 of 8	9 of 10	17 of 32	6 of 6	3 of 3
2	Nate Maness	16 of 28	57%	14 of 26	2 of 2	0 of 0	8 of 19	0 of 0	8 of 9
2	Tony Gravely	10 of 27	37%	7 of 20	2 of 3	1 of 4	8 of 23	2 of 4	0 of 0

Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Angelo picks Tony Gravely but is hesitant. He thinks Gravely's wrestling and top pressure will win two rounds, but Nate Maness is well-rounded and will likely win a round. He placed a bet on Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (win a round) at even money, expecting Gravely to win 29-28. He notes Gravely's cardio issues and Maness's size.

Nate Maness +3.5 rounds (even money)

"i have tony gravely as my pick"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Sep 14, 2021 (4 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely, citing his relentless wrestling and top control. He notes Maness has good takedown defense initially but offers little on his back. Gravely has never been knocked out, and Maness has zero submissions off his back. He predicts a first-round TKO for Gravely.

first round TKO

"i'll say tony gravely wins by my first round tko"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody picks Gravely, citing his wrestling and improvements at American Top Team. He notes that Maness has suspect cardio and was nearly finished by Luke Sanders before coming back. Cody believes Gravely's chain wrestling will wear down Maness, though he admits the price is high.

Maness by submission +1100 (sprinkle)

"i am going to go gravely i wouldn't fault you for taking nate my nest"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi picks Tony Gravely. He describes Maness as average in all areas, while Gravely is a grappling specialist. He notes Gravely has been submitted before but that's due to his large sample size. He worries about judges not understanding grappling, citing the De Freitas fight where one judge scored against Gravely. He advises caution but picks Gravely.

proceed with caution due to judging

"i got gravely man it's just these judges you gotta be careful so i'd say proceed with caution there"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Sep 17, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Preet picks Gravely because he believes Gravely's wrestling is on a different level than Maness has faced. He thinks Maness will back up to the cage and get taken down, where Gravely can pass guard and finish. He likes Gravely inside the distance at +235 and under 2.5 rounds at +155.

Tony Gravely inside the distance +235, Under 2.5 rounds +155

"I actually like gravley uh inside the distance here I do think that he'll go out there and get the finisher against a guy like nate maness"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Sep 15, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul leans toward Gravely but is not confident due to the price. He notes that Maness has shown the ability to come back from bad first rounds. Paul suggests live betting Maness if he loses the first round.

"i think gravely has made the improvements... i just think that he's starting to put it all together"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Sep 12, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Nate Maness

The MMA Guru picks Nate Maness over Tony Gravely, citing Maness's superior grappling and ability to out-grapple Gravely, who struggled with Geraldo de Freitas. He notes Maness is an underdog and calls it a good value pick. He predicts a 29-28 unanimous decision.

underdog pick

"nate minnes being a better grappler than him and being a better grappler than geraldo defletas"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Anthony Birchak

TKO (punch) R2 1:31 · UFC on ESPN: Whittaker vs. Gastelum · Apr 17, 2021

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	2	39 of 75	52%	61 of 105	4 of 6	66%	0	0	4:34
Anthony Birchak	0	18 of 45	40%	30 of 59	0 of 1	0%	1	1	0:27

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	1	32 of 65	49%	50 of 88	3 of 5	60%	0	0	3:20
1	Anthony Birchak	0	14 of 35	40%	26 of 49	0 of 1	0%	1	1	0:27
2	Tony Gravely	1	7 of 10	70%	11 of 17	1 of 1	100%	0	0	1:14
2	Anthony Birchak	0	4 of 10	40%	4 of 10	0 of 0	---	0	0	0:00

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	39 of 75	52%	31 of 65	5 of 6	3 of 4	17 of 33	1 of 5	21 of 37
Anthony Birchak	18 of 45	40%	11 of 34	4 of 8	3 of 3	11 of 36	3 of 5	4 of 4

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	32 of 65	49%	27 of 59	3 of 3	2 of 3	12 of 27	1 of 3	19 of 35
1	Anthony Birchak	14 of 35	40%	10 of 28	2 of 5	2 of 2	9 of 30	1 of 1	4 of 4
2	Tony Gravely	7 of 10	70%	4 of 6	2 of 3	1 of 1	5 of 6	0 of 2	2 of 2
2	Anthony Birchak	4 of 10	40%	1 of 6	2 of 3	1 of 1	2 of 6	2 of 4	0 of 0

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Apr 15, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Tony Gravely to win by dominant decision. He believes Gravely's wrestling will be too much for Birchak, and that Gravely will have no problem getting takedowns. He acknowledges Gravely's submission losses but notes they came against elite grapplers. He thinks Birchak is not on that level and that Gravely should control the fight. He expects a 30-27 unanimous decision with takedowns and control time, and mentions a possible finish.

"give me gravy to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Cody thinks Gravely's chain wrestling and takedown volume will overwhelm Birchak. He notes that Birchak has poor takedown defense and has been submitted multiple times. He expects Gravely to rack up takedowns and control time, possibly getting a submission in the third round. He is very confident.

Gravely by submission, Gravely as a DraftKings play

"i think tony gravely on your lineup man i think he's got the capability to go out there and score 10 takedown"

Bookie Beatdown

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel Levi confidently picks Tony Gravely, stating that Anthony Birchak is past his prime and not UFC caliber. He praises Gravely's wrestling and power, noting that his submission defense is better than perceived. Levi expects Gravely to win by unanimous decision, possibly with a finish by grinding down Birchak. He also mentions that Birchak was brought in on short notice and is outmatched.

unanimous decision

"i'm gonna go grably here to get it done probably unanimous decision"

Half the Battle

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 16, 2021 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Manpreet is confident Gravely will win by decision, highlighting his wrestling pressure and top control. He notes that Birchak is content to fight off his back and has poor takedown defense, as seen in his recent loss. He believes Gravely will grind out a decision, making the decision prop a strong play at plus money.

Gravely by decision +245; fight goes the distance +150

"i think that gravley definitely wins this fight i think he takes this to the ground uh controls this fight"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Apr 14, 2021 (3 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Paul agrees that Gravely's wrestling will be the key. He notes that Birchak is past his prime and has been submitted by lesser grapplers. He expects Gravely to dominate with takedowns and control. He is confident in Gravely winning.

"tony gravely i think that his chain wrestling probably wins him out the day"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 11, 2021 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely to win by third-round TKO via ground and pound. He believes Gravely is an underrated bantamweight prospect with good grappling and stand-up skills. He notes that Birchak has good jiu-jitsu awareness and won't be submitted, but expects Gravely to wear him down in later rounds. He emphasizes that Gravely's losses are to high-level opponents, which shows confidence from his coaches.

third round TKO via ground and pound

"i think he'll go out there and get a third round tko against anthony burkhack due to ground and pound"

THE MMA GURU

WIN vs Geraldo de Freitas

Decision (split) (30–27, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Felder vs. dos Anjos · Nov 14, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Tony Gravely	0	76 of 128	59%	108 of 165	1 of 4	25%	0	0	0:02
Geraldo de Freitas	0	49 of 101	48%	86 of 144	7 of 17	41%	0	0	9:55

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Ctrl
1	Tony Gravely	13 of 27	48%	22 of 40	0 of 1	0%	0:00
1	Geraldo de Freitas	10 of 23	43%	23 of 40	2 of 2	100%	3:38
2	Tony Gravely	19 of 27	70%	29 of 37	1 of 3	33%	0:02
2	Geraldo de Freitas	15 of 30	50%	26 of 42	3 of 7	42%	3:23
3	Tony Gravely	44 of 74	59%	57 of 88	0 of 0	---	0:00
3	Geraldo de Freitas	24 of 48	50%	37 of 62	2 of 8	25%	2:54

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Tony Gravely	76 of 128	59%	61 of 111	12 of 14	3 of 3	69 of 117	4 of 6	3 of 5
Geraldo de Freitas	49 of 101	48%	37 of 87	4 of 5	8 of 9	27 of 72	5 of 6	17 of 23

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Tony Gravely	13 of 27	48%	11 of 25	0 of 0	2 of 2	13 of 26	0 of 0	0 of 1
1	Geraldo de Freitas	10 of 23	43%	5 of 17	0 of 1	5 of 5	4 of 15	0 of 0	6 of 8
2	Tony Gravely	19 of 27	70%	14 of 22	4 of 4	1 of 1	14 of 22	2 of 2	3 of 3
2	Geraldo de Freitas	15 of 30	50%	15 of 30	0 of 0	0 of 0	7 of 19	1 of 2	7 of 9
3	Tony Gravely	44 of 74	59%	36 of 64	8 of 10	0 of 0	42 of 69	2 of 4	0 of 1
3	Geraldo de Freitas	24 of 48	50%	17 of 40	4 of 4	3 of 4	16 of 38	4 of 4	4 of 6

Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 12, 2020 (2 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

Big Brady picks Gravely after initially leaning toward de Freitas. He notes Gravely's wrestling and takedowns will be key, and de Freitas' takedown defense is unimpressive. He worries about Gravely's submission vulnerability but thinks he can avoid submissions and win a decision.

submission prop for de Freitas mentioned as a possible look for those on his side

"i gotta take gravely here i'm gonna take him to win by decision"

DFS by the Numbers

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Tony Gravely

Daniel picks Gravely, believing he is the stronger and more talented fighter with a Division I wrestling background. He notes that Gravely has a tendency to gas and give up his back, but thinks his training at ATT with good partners will help. He sees de Freitas as more basic and lacking adjustments, so Gravely should edge out a decision if he doesn't get submitted.

"i am gonna pick him for the uh the win as well"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2020 (4 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

The MMA Guru picks Tony Gravely by submission, specifically a guillotine choke in the first or second round. He praises Gravely's grappling and scrambles, noting his experience in five-round fights. He acknowledges Geraldo de Freitas' cardio but believes Gravely will out-scramble him and latch up a submission.

Guillotine choke in round 1 or 2; mentions Gravely's experience in five-round fights

"I'm going to go with Tony Gravely here, I think he'll get the submission win against Geraldo de Freitas Junior."

THE MMA GURU

LOSS vs Brett Johns

Submission (rear-naked choke) R3 2:53 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020

Totals

Fighter	KD	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
Brett Johns	0	36 of 47	76%	65 of 80	6 of 9	66%	3	1	7:18
Tony Gravely	0	26 of 44	59%	43 of 66	5 of 7	71%	0	0	4:10

Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Total Str.	TD	TD %	Sub. Att	Rev.	Ctrl
1	Brett Johns	9 of 13	69%	20 of 24	2 of 2	100%	2	0	3:35
1	Tony Gravely	7 of 13	53%	14 of 22	1 of 2	50%	0	0	1:01
2	Brett Johns	4 of 5	80%	13 of 16	3 of 6	50%	0	0	1:23
2	Tony Gravely	18 of 24	75%	25 of 34	3 of 4	75%	0	0	2:56
3	Brett Johns	23 of 29	79%	32 of 40	1 of 1	100%	1	1	2:20
3	Tony Gravely	1 of 7	14%	4 of 10	1 of 1	100%	0	0	0:13

Significant Strikes

Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
Brett Johns	36 of 47	76%	33 of 43	2 of 3	1 of 1	3 of 11	8 of 8	25 of 28
Tony Gravely	26 of 44	59%	9 of 25	6 of 7	11 of 12	5 of 18	21 of 26	0 of 0

Significant Strikes Per Round

Rd	Fighter	Sig. Str.	Sig. Str. %	Head	Body	Leg	Distance	Clinch	Ground
1	Brett Johns	9 of 13	69%	7 of 11	1 of 1	1 of 1	2 of 5	4 of 4	3 of 4
1	Tony Gravely	7 of 13	53%	1 of 5	1 of 2	5 of 6	3 of 8	4 of 5	0 of 0
2	Brett Johns	4 of 5	80%	3 of 3	1 of 2	0 of 0	0 of 1	4 of 4	0 of 0
2	Tony Gravely	18 of 24	75%	8 of 14	4 of 4	6 of 6	1 of 3	17 of 21	0 of 0
3	Brett Johns	23 of 29	79%	23 of 29	0 of 0	0 of 0	1 of 5	0 of 0	22 of 24
3	Tony Gravely	1 of 7	14%	0 of 6	1 of 1	0 of 0	1 of 7	0 of 0	0 of 0

Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)

Brett Johns

Daniel picks Brett Johns by submission, citing his superior jiu-jitsu and opportunistic grappling. He notes that Gravely has been submitted multiple times and that Johns is a black belt who can capitalize on any opening. He believes Johns' experience against top competition will show.

by submission

"I'm gonna go with Bret John's here via submission"

Half the Battle

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)

Brett Johns

The MMA Guru picks Brett Johns, noting his 15-0 record before losses to top bantamweights Pedro Munhoz and Aljamain Sterling. He believes Johns is still an absolute beast, fights out of Wales, and is a big bantamweight who will win by decision against Tony Gravely, whose outside UFC record he doesn't like.

decision

"Bray John's I feel like he's gonna get this win over Tony gravely... I think he's gonna get a win by decision"

THE MMA GURU

Expert Picks (8)

Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)

Tony Gravely

live bet suggestion; takedown prop bets mentioned

"I'm gonna lead Gravely here right because we know what he will do... he's gonna have power in his hands and he's gonna just start blasting takedown so Gravely is going to be the the pick here"

We Want Picks

Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

"I do slightly lean with Victor Henry the way I see it playing out is you know Gravely going for takedowns the majority of them getting stuffed"

DFS by the Numbers

Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Cody picks Henry, emphasizing his experience and wrestling defense. He thinks Henry can survive Gravely's early wrestling and take over in later rounds. He likes Henry by decision at +210.

Henry by decision +210

"I will take Victor Henry I'll take Victor Henry by decision"

Bookie Beatdown

Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Henry -140, Gravely +120 to +125. Connor thinks Henry deserves to be a bigger favorite.

"Hard not to pick Victor Henry here. ... That loss was a reminder of how good a sense out is not a check on how good Victor Henry is."

MMA Vivisection

MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)

Victor Henry

"I am going to think or say that he wins this by decision just off of uh inevitable takedown defense which will start to get better as fight the fight starts to go on"

MMA Lock of the Night

Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)

Victor Henry

Paul picks Henry, citing his volume and ability to outwork Gravely, who tends to fade after the first round. He likes the over 63.5 significant strikes prop for Henry on Prize Picks.

Henry over 63.5 significant strikes on Prize Picks

"I'll pick Henry and mostly based on volume"

Bookie Beatdown

The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)

Victor Henry

by decision

"I'm gonna side with Victor Henry by decision I think he'll out hustle Tony Gravely in a decision back and forth fight 29-28 to him"

THE MMA GURU

Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)

Victor Henry

"Victor Henry will definitely clean your clock with a really good straight right hand or a big uppercut or something like that. So hard not to pick Victor Henry here."

MMA Vivisection

Victor Henry

Tony Gravely

Career Averages - Victor Henry

Career Averages - Tony Gravely

Victor Henry

Tony Gravely

Victor Henry - Fight History

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Expert Picks (8)