UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023 · Bantamweight · Completed
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Age 32
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 34
Height 5' 8"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 135 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Jonathan Martinez
4.44 SLpM
49.0% Str. Acc.
4.09 SApM
56.0% Str. Def.
0.38 TD Avg
35.0% TD Acc.
68.0% TD Def.
0.1 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Said Nurmagomedov
3.08 SLpM
48.0% Str. Acc.
2.05 SApM
55.0% Str. Def.
0.86 TD Avg
15.0% TD Acc.
63.0% TD Def.
1.1 Sub. Avg
Jonathan Martinez
Moneyline
Caesars +210
KO/TKO
FanDuel +700
Submission
BetRivers +2200
Decision
BetMGM +375
Said Nurmagomedov
Moneyline
BetMGM -225
KO/TKO
FanDuel +420
Submission
BetRivers +525
Decision
FanDuel +165
Jonathan Martinez - Fight History
LOSS vs Marcus McGhee
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 309: Jones vs. Miocic · Nov 16, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Marcus McGhee 0 48 of 108 44% 49 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Jonathan Martinez 0 102 of 223 45% 105 of 226 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Marcus McGhee 0 7 of 18 38% 7 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 33 of 75 44% 33 of 75 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Marcus McGhee 0 17 of 47 36% 17 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 42 of 93 45% 45 of 96 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Marcus McGhee 0 24 of 43 55% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:57
Jonathan Martinez 0 27 of 55 49% 27 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Marcus McGhee 48 of 108 44% 24 of 76 3 of 8 21 of 24 46 of 105 2 of 3 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 102 of 223 45% 60 of 167 18 of 27 24 of 29 100 of 220 2 of 3 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Marcus McGhee 7 of 18 38% 0 of 11 1 of 1 6 of 6 7 of 18 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 33 of 75 44% 17 of 52 5 of 11 11 of 12 33 of 75 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Marcus McGhee 17 of 47 36% 12 of 38 1 of 4 4 of 5 16 of 45 1 of 2 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 42 of 93 45% 27 of 73 6 of 8 9 of 12 41 of 92 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Marcus McGhee 24 of 43 55% 12 of 27 1 of 3 11 of 13 23 of 42 1 of 1 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 27 of 55 49% 16 of 42 7 of 8 4 of 5 26 of 53 1 of 2 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Marcus McGhee
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: McGhee (-142), Martinez (+120)

Round 1
Feet and fists are sure to fly in the preliminary headliner. The last several stoppage wins for Martinez (19-5, 10-4 UFC) have all come from strikes from his legs, while the hyper-aggressive McGhee (9-1, 3-0 UFC) has used all kinds of weapons to get the job done as of late. Referee Herb Dean will do his best to keep track of these high-speed, elusive bantamweights. Before they begin, Dean is told to examine Martinez’ toenails. He is cleared to go on, with Dean saying he will not clip anything. They share a glove touch before getting down to business. McGhee flips up a high kick and then one down low to say hello with Martinez standing right in front of him. McGhee throws a head kick on the other side, and he lunges forward with a right hand and then jabs with a front kick. A single Martinez leg kick makes McGhee recoil his leg, and this spurs McGhee into action as he starts spamming more kicks. Martinez chips at him with another kick, and McGhee races after him hurling punches. Leg kicks are traded, and McGhee lands at the end of a salvo of punches. McGhee chops at the front leg twice, and the third punch he throws gets through. McGhee strides forward to pitch a head kick, and Martinez parries it without concern but he does not block the follow-up leg kick. Martinez walks McGhee down but is taking fire high and low, and he has not committed to much halfway through the round. McGhee picks at his man from afar, with Martinez unwilling or unable to pull the trigger. McGhee hacks at the front leg and triples up on his jab, where a big left hand does not get through. Martinez maintains heavy pressure and releases a single low kick, and he shoulder rolls to let overhand lefts bounce off him. Leg kicks come from both sides, with McGhee’s volume higher by a factor of at least five. McGhee absorbs a leg kick to throw one back, and he leans back to dodge a flurry and fires back with a vengeance. McGhee jabs to the head and body to end the tentative round.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 McGhee

Round 2
The fighters touch gloves, and McGhee whips a head kick after. Martinez blocks the first and then the second, keeping his guard up. McGhee chews up his foe’s front leg and body, with Martinez’ blocks effective but counters almost silent. Martinez scores a single leg kick, and McGhee chains a few punches into a kick. Martinez knocks him back with a left hand, but it is one-and-done before McGhee picks up his offense. McGhee plants a one-two on the jaw, and Martinez responses fall flat. Martinez walks into a right hand, and he absorbs a second before throwing back. McGhee reaches his man with a jab, and he uses a side kick to keep Martinez off of him. Martinez spins with a back fist that ricochets off his guard, and he pays Martinez back in spades with a few punches and a kick. When Martinez kicks the front leg, McGhee responds in kind. McGhee puts a couple punches through the guard, getting Martinez’ attention and not giving him much to think about. Martinez manages to sneak in a left hand, but McGhee walks through it as if nothing happened. McGhee’s volume is giving “Dragon” fits, and when he puts power behind a strike, Martinez does not always see it coming. McGhee goes high and opens up a body shot, and he rolls when a left hand thumps him on the temple. Another big left hand from Martinez finds its home, and Martinez celebrates that with a powerful elbow and then a leg kick. Martinez starts picking up the pace, and McGhee appears to be slowing. Martinez misses an elbow by an inch, and they throw hard at one another and cannot score. Martinez sits down on a low kick that draws a limp from his opponent, and the round ends.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 McGhee
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 McGhee

Round 3
There is a final clap of hands to commence the final stanza. Martinez puts himself in close range, letting McGhee hurl punches at and past him. McGhee strafes from side to side, not letting Martinez bear down on him. McGhee triples up on a jab to the body and then head, and he ends the trio with a leg kick. When Martinez kicks him back, McGhee hops to try to avoid it. Martinez slams another leg kick home, and McGhee gets after it with a lengthy combination ending with a low kick. Martinez jabs out and parries the response, and he smashes McGhee’s front leg with a kick. McGhee hobbles away, clearly compromised, and Martinez slams it two more times. McGhee remains on his feet but is in big trouble, struggling to keep his balance even as the damaged limb is behind him. Martinez pushes into a clinch rather than attack the leg further, and the crowd disagrees with this decision and audibly voice their opinions. Martinez keeps tight until pushing off with a minute 50 to go. Martinez connects with a mean leg kick, and McGhee barely escapes. Martinez blasts the rear leg again, and McGhee is in a bad way. Martinez lets fly a kick to the front leg, and McGhee bursts into action swinging with everything he has left. Martinez takes it on the guard and kicks McGhee, and McGhee is shaking his leg to recover it slightly. McGhee’s blitzes do not have near the pop on them as before, allowing Martinez to get right in his face. Martinez whips a kick to the other leg, and McGhee wings a right hand over the top to keep him honest. McGhee strings a few punches together and backpedals fast, and Martinez follows and bashes the wounded leg one last time. The round ends, with McGhee surviving the pain and very likely pulling off the victory.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)
Devin Tejada scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (29-28 McGhee)

The Official Result
Marcus McGhee def. Jonathan Martinez via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Angelo picks Marcus McGhee, calling himself a fanboy. He highlights McGhee's power, takedowns, and multiple paths to victory. He notes that Jonathan Martinez is a good fighter but may have been frozen by the moment against Aldo. His only concern is McGhee's gas tank, but he is confident McGhee gets it done.

"I am picking Marcus McGee here I think he gets it done I'm pretty confident in that"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 14, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Big Brady picks Marcus McGhee, highlighting his power, durability, and grappling upside. He notes that Jonathan Martinez is chinny, having been knocked out or dropped in several fights, while McGhee lands harder shots and has more ways to win. He also believes McGhee has the volume advantage and can finish Martinez, predicting a second-round knockout.

"I like Marcus McGee here I'll take him to win this fight by knockout I think he finishes Martinez second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Cody picks Marcus McGhee, citing his pressure, power, and wrestling advantage. He notes Martinez is a volume striker who relies on kicks, but McGhee will close the distance and force exchanges in the pocket where his power will be decisive. Cody expects McGhee to win by knockout or decision, possibly in the later rounds.

by knockout (plus 225)
"I got Marcus McGee minus 130 minus 140 whatever it is that the numers you're looking at right now um I'll be playing it Maniac McGee That's my boy"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Connor agrees with Zane, emphasizing McGhee's athleticism and counter-combination skills. He notes that McGhee knows exactly what he is building with his pressure and that Martinez's kicking game will be neutralized. Connor also mentions that McGhee is a 'sweet guy' and a gym legend, and that this fight could propel him into the top 15.

"Yeah, I agree. He is just such a ridiculous athlete and he has a really good idea of what he is doing with his counter combinations."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Jonathan Martinez as an upset, citing his experience, reach advantage, and kicking game. He notes McGhee's lack of tested competition and vulnerability to body kicks. He believes Martinez will use his kicks to slow McGhee and mix in knees. He acknowledges McGhee's power but trusts Martinez's durability and proven track record.

"Give me uh Jonathan Martinez for this upset here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 16, 2024 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host notes that people forget Martinez was a favorite against Jose Aldo, and now as an underdog against the hot new prospect McGee, he sees value. He expects Martinez's leg kicks to slow down McGee, allowing Martinez to work his hands in the second and third rounds and win a decision.

betting at plus 110 plus 115
"I have to bet him at this spot especially uh as the underdog here at plus 110 plus 115 as I think his leg kicks will come into play Slow Down Marcus McGee and la Martinez to get to work …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Nov 13, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Paul picks Marcus McGhee, agreeing with Cody. He notes McGhee's pressure and power will be too much for Martinez, who tends to retreat when faced with power. Paul expects McGhee to win by knockout or decision, and likes McGhee by knockout at plus 225.

by knockout (plus 225)
"I think he McGee just doesn't really show much respect to the jab walks through it gets in tight and just unloads so uh yeah like like McGee quite a bit uh in this fight"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2024 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez, citing his underrated striking and leg kicks. He believes Martinez's investment shots to the legs will be key against McGhee's movement. He trusts Martinez's durability and expects a close decision win.

decision win
"I'm GNA go against Marcus McGee and I'm gonna pick Jonathan Martinez to win... I think he'll be able to make this one close and I think if it's a close back and forth striking match I trust the investment …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 15, 2024 (1 day before fight)
Marcus McGhee

Zane picks McGhee because he believes McGhee's pressure style will stifle Martinez's kicking game. He notes that Martinez is uncomfortable in the pocket and has struggled against pressure fighters like Jose Aldo. Zane thinks McGhee's athleticism and methodical pressure will lead to a win, though he acknowledges Martinez could win early with kicks.

Odds: McGee opened at -124, now -128; Martinez opened +112, now +115. Zane notes the odds reflect the open-endedness but expects the fight to look one-sided.
"I think he is capable of doing that. I think martinez is capable of kind of letting it happen. And if it does happen and it does play out that way I will I would pick McGee with pretty high …"
LOSS vs José Aldo
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC 301: Pantoja vs. Erceg · May 04, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
José Aldo 0 77 of 139 55% 101 of 174 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 52 of 118 44% 80 of 151 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:20
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 José Aldo 0 17 of 46 36% 17 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 15 of 34 44% 16 of 35 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
2 José Aldo 0 30 of 50 60% 30 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Jonathan Martinez 0 14 of 38 36% 20 of 44 0 of 1 0% 0 0 1:20
3 José Aldo 0 30 of 43 69% 54 of 77 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:45
Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 44 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
José Aldo 77 of 139 55% 41 of 96 26 of 33 10 of 10 70 of 132 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 118 44% 36 of 96 9 of 15 7 of 7 50 of 116 1 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 José Aldo 17 of 46 36% 5 of 30 6 of 10 6 of 6 17 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 15 of 34 44% 8 of 23 1 of 5 6 of 6 15 of 34 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 José Aldo 30 of 50 60% 15 of 34 11 of 12 4 of 4 30 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
Jonathan Martinez 14 of 38 36% 12 of 35 2 of 3 0 of 0 14 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 José Aldo 30 of 43 69% 21 of 32 9 of 11 0 of 0 23 of 36 5 of 5 2 of 2
Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 16 of 38 6 of 7 1 of 1 21 of 44 1 of 1 1 of 1
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Apr 28, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.

"I do think Jonathan Martinez wins this fight but I'm not going to bet on this fight I have too much respect and too much love for Jose Aldo"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.

"I'm going to pick Jose Aldo here to pull off the upset."
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
José Aldo

Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.

"I took him at plus 145 yesterday... just cuz I was like Martinez been fighting a lot of these Apex cards in front of nobody..."
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.

"do you really want to pick against um Jose AO and Rio too as well like you never know oh yeah get like weird judges scorecards"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.

"official pick Martinez for you Martinez decision is the official pick"
JE
Jeff Fox Expert Lean picked May 2, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.

"I'll take Jonathan Martinez thinking Jose Aldo comes in not giving a [__] and that's why there officially for no play"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 3, 2024 (1 day before fight)
José Aldo

Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.

knockout
"look for Aldo to March down Martinez and eventually knock him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked May 1, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.

Martinez by decision
"I got to go with Jonathan Martinez... Martinez just out works him with the volume..."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 30, 2024 (4 days before fight)
José Aldo

The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.

body shot
"I'm going to say that Aldo puts him away with a body shot"
WIN vs Adrian Yañez
TKO (leg kick) R2 2:26 · UFC Fight Night: Yusuff vs. Barboza · Oct 14, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 2 36 of 58 62% 36 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:19
Adrian Yañez 0 20 of 72 27% 20 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 16 of 30 53% 16 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:12
Adrian Yañez 0 14 of 46 30% 14 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 1 20 of 28 71% 20 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:07
Adrian Yañez 0 6 of 26 23% 6 of 27 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:10
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 36 of 58 62% 7 of 15 0 of 2 29 of 41 36 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 20 of 72 27% 9 of 59 10 of 12 1 of 1 17 of 66 3 of 6 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 30 53% 1 of 5 0 of 2 15 of 23 16 of 30 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 14 of 46 30% 5 of 37 8 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 28 71% 6 of 10 0 of 0 14 of 18 20 of 28 0 of 0 0 of 0
Adrian Yañez 6 of 26 23% 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0 4 of 22 2 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 8, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Angelo picks Adrian Yañez despite the massive line movement toward Martinez. He believes Yañez's boxing is cleaner and faster, and his 100% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. However, he notes Yañez needs to not be gun-shy after his knockout loss and let his hands go. He expects a great fight and potential Fight of the Night.

"Adrian jannis is going to be the pick but you know we're going to need him to let his hands go"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez in a close fight. He thinks Yañez has the volume and power advantage, with great boxing and hand speed, while Martinez relies on kicks. He sees it as a 15-minute striking match that goes to decision, and worries about judges but leans Yañez as a bounce-back spot after his loss to Rob Font.

"I think I'm going to pick Giannis here not a not a ton of confidence because I like Martinez quite a bit"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez, arguing that Yañez is overhyped and has not faced top competition. He points to Yañez's struggles against Randy Costa and Davey Grant, and his loss to Rob Font. Cody highlights Martinez's five-fight win streak, including a dominant win over Cub Swanson, and believes his jab and kicks will trouble Yañez. He also notes Martinez's improved cardio and seasoning at Factory X.

"Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 12, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Adrian Yañez

The host picks Adrian Yañez as an underdog, surprised at the betting public flipping on him after his loss to Rob Font. He believes Yañez's boxing combinations and power will counter Martinez's kicking game. He expects Yañez to crash the pocket and land a knockout, likely in the first two rounds.

by KO in rounds 1-2
"I was more than happy to take the underdog shot here on yany and uh again surprised at the shortsightedness of the the the betting Community"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Cody, noting that Yañez has not been tested by wrestlers and that Martinez could mix in takedowns. He points out that Martinez's kicks can keep the fight at range, neutralizing Yañez's boxing. Paul also mentions that Martinez's volume is lower but his striking is effective, and he expects Martinez to win two of three rounds.

"I'm with you Jonathan Martinez is the pick"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 10, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over Adrian Yañez. He notes Yañez's boxing is good but he has a weakness against kicks, as shown in his fight with Davey Grant (which he thinks Grant won). He praises Martinez's five-fight win streak, including wins over Cub Swanson and Said Nurmagomedov, and his ability to mix in low kicks. He believes Martinez has better momentum and will be more switched on, winning a close decision.

decision
"I'm going to go with Jonathan Martinez over Adrien yunz I think he's got a lot better momentum right now"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 47 of 78 60% 101 of 134 3 of 9 33% 2 0 4:21
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 55 69% 78 of 96 0 of 1 0% 1 0 6:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 48 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:59
Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 21 61% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 16 of 25 64% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Said Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 22 68% 26 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 10 of 18 55% 39 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Said Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 12 83% 35 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 47 of 78 60% 25 of 50 14 of 19 8 of 9 31 of 57 12 of 14 4 of 7
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 55 69% 13 of 25 7 of 8 18 of 22 22 of 37 13 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 21 of 35 60% 8 of 19 8 of 10 5 of 6 14 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 21 61% 4 of 9 4 of 5 5 of 7 8 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 25 64% 9 of 16 5 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 1
Said Nurmagomedov 15 of 22 68% 6 of 11 1 of 1 8 of 10 8 of 14 4 of 5 3 of 3
3 Jonathan Martinez 10 of 18 55% 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6
Said Nurmagomedov 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, low kicks, …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy not stationary …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a little trickier …"
WIN vs Cub Swanson
TKO (leg kick) R2 4:19 · UFC Fight Night: Grasso vs. Araujo · Oct 15, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 51 of 79 64% 60 of 88 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 2 62 of 102 60% 66 of 106 0 of 1 0% 0 1 3:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 31 of 50 62% 38 of 57 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:20
Cub Swanson 1 33 of 59 55% 35 of 61 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:16
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 20 of 29 68% 22 of 31 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Cub Swanson 1 29 of 43 67% 31 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 51 of 79 64% 10 of 35 9 of 10 32 of 34 48 of 73 3 of 5 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 62 of 102 60% 40 of 77 15 of 18 7 of 7 37 of 64 12 of 14 13 of 24
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 31 of 50 62% 5 of 23 5 of 6 21 of 21 29 of 47 2 of 2 0 of 1
Cub Swanson 33 of 59 55% 21 of 45 10 of 12 2 of 2 21 of 39 5 of 6 7 of 14
2 Jonathan Martinez 20 of 29 68% 5 of 12 4 of 4 11 of 13 19 of 26 1 of 3 0 of 0
Cub Swanson 29 of 43 67% 19 of 32 5 of 6 5 of 5 16 of 25 7 of 8 6 of 10
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Angelo leans Cub Swanson, citing his experience, fight IQ, and still-solid chin. He notes that Jonathan Martinez has holes in his game, particularly handling pressure, and that Cub can exploit that in a technical kickboxing match. However, he is not highly confident and calls it a tough pick, acknowledging Martinez's power and recent wins.

"I think I'm gonna have to lean Cub because of his experience his level of competition this is not the most confident pick in the world"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Oct 9, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Big Brady picks Cub Swanson for the upset by first-round knockout. He notes that Swanson has looked phenomenal lately, has power and volume, while Martinez has a questionable chin (knocked down multiple times). He thinks Swanson's pressure and hard shots will be too much, but says he'll check the weigh-ins to see if Swanson looks drained from the weight cut. He calls it a super close fight.

Swanson wins by knockout, first round
"I'm actually gonna go with a cub Swanson for the upset here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez for the pick but is more confident in the under 2.5 rounds at +130. He notes Cub Swanson still fights with hands down and chin up, and while he has power, Martinez is faster and more technical. He expects violence in a small cage and thinks the fight ends early.

under 2.5 rounds +130
"I'll lean to him but I think round one could be very very dicey... I'm betting on violence here small cage under two and a half rounds plus 130 sign me up."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing the age and weight cut concerns for Swanson. He notes that Martinez's range kicking game could cause problems for Swanson, and that Swanson's tendency to struggle against range strikers is a factor. He admits it's a coin flip but goes with the younger, established bantamweight.

"I'll go with Jonathan Martinez, just to be on the opposite side of you on this one. I just don't trust the Bantam weight move for cub."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Swanson is a live underdog at +165 due to his unorthodox striking and power, which could expose Martinez's chin. Martinez is a good striker with kicks and combinations, but he has shown he can be hurt. Swanson's experience and ability to crack opponents make this competitive. However, the weight cut to 135 pounds is a concern; the host wants to see how Swanson looks at weigh-ins before committing. Prediction is Swanson by knockout.

Swanson by knockout
"I'm gonna go Cub Swanson Swanson by knockout"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Oct 12, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Paul is tempted by Cub Swanson as a live underdog, especially since the fight is at bantamweight, a new weight class for Swanson. He questions Martinez's chin and weight cut issues, noting Martinez has been dropped before and struggled at 135. He thinks Swanson's power and pace could break Martinez if it becomes a scrap.

Cub Swanson inside the distance
"I think I'm leaning slight dog here at Cub Swanson right now you know what I didn't know that this was that bantamweight I that makes me like it even more."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez over his favorite fighter Cub Swanson, citing momentum and Martinez's age (28) as key factors. He notes that Swanson is moving down to bantamweight, which often leads to poor performances initially. He praises Martinez's leg kicks and slick striking, and predicts a body finish due to Swanson's weaker torso at the new weight.

prediction: finish to the body
"I'm gonna go with Jonathan Martinez over Cub Swanson and it hurts me to say it because Cub Swanson's my favorite fighter"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Oct 13, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Cub Swanson

Zane picks Swanson, reasoning that if he would pick Swanson at featherweight, he has to still pick him at bantamweight despite the weight cut concerns. He believes Swanson's aggression and ability to punish Martinez's poor defense on the back foot will be key. He acknowledges the risk but trusts Swanson's veteran savvy.

"If I would pick it to happen at one 45 and I know so little about how cub handles a weight cut... then I have to still pick the guy I would pick at featherweight."
WIN vs Vince Morales
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Holm vs. Vieira · May 21, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 88 of 154 57% 88 of 154 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 51 of 153 33% 62 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 24 of 40 60% 24 of 40 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 15 of 35 42% 15 of 35 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 36 of 56 64% 36 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Vince Morales 0 16 of 56 28% 16 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 28 of 58 48% 28 of 58 2 of 2 100% 0 0 0:41
Vince Morales 0 20 of 62 32% 31 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 1 0:14
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 88 of 154 57% 41 of 98 18 of 22 29 of 34 86 of 151 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 51 of 153 33% 33 of 127 15 of 23 3 of 3 48 of 149 2 of 3 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 24 of 40 60% 6 of 17 4 of 5 14 of 18 24 of 40 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 15 of 35 42% 8 of 27 5 of 6 2 of 2 15 of 35 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 36 of 56 64% 18 of 37 5 of 6 13 of 13 34 of 53 2 of 3 0 of 0
Vince Morales 16 of 56 28% 10 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 1 15 of 54 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 28 of 58 48% 17 of 44 9 of 11 2 of 3 28 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vince Morales 20 of 62 32% 15 of 55 5 of 7 0 of 0 18 of 60 1 of 1 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Jonathan Martinez vs. Vince Morales
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Morales (-150), Medic (+130)

Round 1
The third man inside the cage for this bantamweight contest is Herb Dean. Both men take their time feeling out the other with each fighter looking to find their distance with leg kicks and jabs over the opening minute. Martinez snaps a body kick that lands and Martinez lands a solid counter punch a few moments later. Martinez throws two other kicks that connect and begins walking down Morales. Martinez continues to land damaging leg kicks as Morales is unable to counter. Another leg kick slows down Morales as Martinez remains the aggressor, who is just one step ahead on the feet but not getting his opponent in any real danger. The round ends with Martinez throwing a jumping knee.

Sherdog Scores
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 2
Morales throws a leg kick and a right ot the body, but Martinez answers with a leg kick that lands much harder. Martinez lands a couple more whipping leg kicks as he controls the center of the cage. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. They clinch briefly and separate. Morales is struggling to find the range on his attacks. Martinez with another inside low kick. He’s varying his kicks to the legs well, going to both legs and working the inside and outside. Martinez with a kick to the body followed by a front kick down the middle. Morales pressures and eats a knee down the middle from Martinez for his efforts. Martinez with another outside low kick and he avoids the counter from Morales. Morales wings punches moving forward but can’t connect. Martinez whips another outside leg kick, then he follows a knee with a left hand. Martinez shoves his foe away before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez

Round 3
Martinez lands a push kick and then connects to Morales’ lead leg with an inside low kick. Morales closes the distance but he gets hit with punches. Morales blocks a high kick with his forearm. Martinez flicks out a jab and then connects with a left hook to the chin of his opponent. Martinez continues to dictate the range and the tempo of the exchanges. A knee and a left hand from Martinez land flush. Morales is trying to press the action, but Martinez is countering well. A right hand finds the mark for Morales. Martinez sticks a counter left and then throws a high kick that his foe blocks with his forearm. With about a minute remaining, Martinez executes a nicely timed level change for a double-leg takedown. Morales posts and stands against the fence, but Martinez is driving for another takedown, and he dumps Morales on the canvas. Morales reverses into top position but can’t make anything happen before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Keith Shillan scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)
Tudor Leonte scores the round: 10-9 Martinez (30-27 Martinez)

The Official Result
Jonathan Martinez def. Vince Morales via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked May 15, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Angelo picks Jonathan Martinez but is hesitant because he thinks Vince Morales's pressure style could cause problems. He notes that Martinez looked terrible in his last fight against Alejandro Perez, only kicking and crumbling under pressure. However, he believes Martinez is the better overall fighter and will squeak out a win. He also mentions a prop bet on Vince Morales winning a round via a plus 3.5 round bet.

Vince Morales plus 3.5 round bet (buy a round on judge's scorecard) - available at BetOnline
"i really want to pick vince morales as an underdog here i think this fight's going to look exactly like jonathan martinez's last fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision, favoring his diverse striking (leg kicks, body kicks, head kicks) over Vince Morales. He notes Morales has a wrestling background but rarely uses it, and the fight should stay standing. He questions Martinez's chin but believes his volume and kicks will be too much. He does not like the -220 price but picks Martinez to win.

"i think martinez does win a decision but um i'll be honest i don't really like the price tag of minus 220 but i'll pick on the win and i'll pick him to win by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody leans Martinez but is wary of his tendency to get caught in fights. He notes Martinez's leg kick game should be effective against Morales, who is susceptible to low kicks. However, he acknowledges Morales' durability and underdog success, making this a tough call.

"part part of me thinks that jay martin stays the outside chips away and i think that's what everybody's believing like most people are on the same page but uh when i try to think of who who's that guy …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked May 21, 2022 (fight day)
Jonathan Martinez

The host picks Jonathan Martinez to win. He believes Martinez's kicking game, including leg kicks, body kicks, and head kicks, will be the difference. He thinks Morales has a puncher's chance but will get stuck on the end of Martinez's strikes and be outworked. He does not expect the fight to be as close as some people think.

over 2.5 rounds (part of totals parlay)
"i don't think martinez is going to be as close as people are making it out to be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked May 18, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul does not give a clear pick. He discusses both sides, noting Martinez's leg kicks and Morales' durability and underdog value. He says he is struggling to pull the trigger on either side.

"i'm struggling to pull the trigger myself of course underdogs are gonna come through lately i've been picking underdogs it's just the ones i picked and don't come through and the ones i fade do"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked May 17, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru sides with Jonathan Martinez, citing his technical striking on the outside and experience. He acknowledges Vince Morales has power but notes Morales hasn't lived up to his KO reputation in the UFC. He trusts Martinez not to make a mistake and get KO'd, predicting a unanimous decision with some hairy moments.

"i'm gonna side with jonathan martinez here"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 30–27) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Makhachev vs. Green · Feb 26, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 1 52 of 146 35% 52 of 146 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:02
Alejandro Pérez 0 74 of 144 51% 74 of 144 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 1 9 of 30 30% 9 of 30 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Alejandro Pérez 0 22 of 45 48% 22 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 18 of 49 36% 18 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Alejandro Pérez 0 17 of 38 44% 17 of 38 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 25 of 67 37% 25 of 67 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Alejandro Pérez 0 35 of 61 57% 35 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 52 of 146 35% 34 of 125 8 of 11 10 of 10 50 of 144 2 of 2 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 74 of 144 51% 36 of 92 23 of 34 15 of 18 72 of 139 2 of 5 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 9 of 30 30% 3 of 23 1 of 2 5 of 5 8 of 29 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 22 of 45 48% 5 of 21 10 of 16 7 of 8 20 of 40 2 of 5 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 18 of 49 36% 14 of 43 2 of 4 2 of 2 18 of 49 0 of 0 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 17 of 38 44% 6 of 24 4 of 5 7 of 9 17 of 38 0 of 0 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 25 of 67 37% 17 of 59 5 of 5 3 of 3 24 of 66 1 of 1 0 of 0
Alejandro Pérez 35 of 61 57% 25 of 47 9 of 13 1 of 1 35 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez to win by decision. He praises Martinez's striking volume, accuracy, and takedown defense. He criticizes Perez's recent performance against a 45-year-old Johnny Eduardo, where Perez was outlanded and looked poor on the feet. Brady believes Martinez is younger, improving, and training at a good camp. He thinks Perez's takedown attempts will be ineffective and that Martinez will pick him apart on the feet.

Martinez by decision
"I gotta go martinez here i don't know what it is with perez is he on a decline you know was it the layoff but you know he was on a two-fight losing streak takes a a couple year layoff …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody picks Martinez confidently, citing his striking, takedown defense, and youth. He notes Pérez's declining chin, low volume, and poor takedown accuracy. Cody believes Martinez wins by volume and suggests watching weigh-ins due to Martinez's past weight issues.

"i think martinez wins the fight"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Feb 24, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Daniel Levi picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by knockout. He notes Martinez has superior striking and range control, and that Pérez has looked older and less durable. Levi warns that Martinez can be complacent and Pérez could weasel a split decision, but believes Martinez's technique and knees will be the difference. He calls it a dog-or-pass situation betting-wise.

"i'm going to go with uh martinez to knock him out"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The host is confident in Martinez, citing his length, striking from the outside, and 72% takedown defense. He expects Martinez to keep the fight standing and pick apart Pérez with kicks and punches, similar to his performance against Zviad Lazishvili. He notes Pérez is flat-footed and may struggle to close distance. He predicts a decision win for Martinez.

"i like martinez here -210 is roughly accurate in terms of where i think the odds should be"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Feb 23, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul agrees with Martinez, noting his superior striking and takedown defense. He points out Pérez's poor volume and recent KO loss. Paul thinks the line is fair and expects Martinez to win by decision or late stoppage.

"the line the line probably does make sense to be perfectly honest here yeah martinez wins likely by volume"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Feb 21, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

The MMA Guru picks Jonathan Martinez to win, possibly by third-round finish. He criticizes Alejandro Pérez's striking, calling it terrible with poor range control, and notes that Pérez was clipped by Johnny Eduardo. He highlights Martinez's takedown defense improvements, as seen against Vince Morales, and believes Martinez will stuff takedowns and beat up Pérez on the feet. The Guru expects Martinez to dominate and potentially finish Pérez in the third round.

third round finish
"i'm gonna bet he stuffs the takedowns and beats up perez and maybe finishes him in the third round"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Costa vs. Vettori · Oct 23, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 92 of 188 48% 94 of 191 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 63 of 160 39% 66 of 163 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:30
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 23 of 46 50% 25 of 49 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 19 of 46 41% 22 of 49 0 of 4 0% 0 0 1:30
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 29 of 61 47% 29 of 61 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 27 of 63 42% 27 of 63 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 40 of 81 49% 40 of 81 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Zviad Lazishvili 0 17 of 51 33% 17 of 51 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 92 of 188 48% 65 of 154 14 of 19 13 of 15 92 of 188 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 63 of 160 39% 25 of 115 17 of 22 21 of 23 60 of 153 3 of 7 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 23 of 46 50% 11 of 32 6 of 7 6 of 7 23 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 19 of 46 41% 7 of 31 3 of 5 9 of 10 18 of 43 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 29 of 61 47% 21 of 49 6 of 9 2 of 3 29 of 61 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 27 of 63 42% 11 of 45 8 of 9 8 of 9 25 of 59 2 of 4 0 of 0
3 Jonathan Martinez 40 of 81 49% 33 of 73 2 of 3 5 of 5 40 of 81 0 of 0 0 of 0
Zviad Lazishvili 17 of 51 33% 7 of 39 6 of 8 4 of 4 17 of 51 0 of 0 0 of 0
CO
Cody Saftic Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Cody does not make a pick due to lack of information. He notes that Lazishvili is an undefeated LFA champion with a wrestling background, but has not fought in a year and pulled out of a previous fight. Cody speculates that Martinez may open as a slight favorite, but he does not have enough data to make a confident pick.

"no no i really don't there's no price it got announced really late"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Oct 22, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Lock picks Martinez based on striking gap and cardio. He notes Lazishvili is a poor striker and Martinez is legitimately good. He expects Martinez to win on the feet and avoid being controlled on the ground. He bet Martinez at +162 and likes the KO prop.

Martinez by KO (if available)
"i like jonathan martinez on this side of things"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Oct 21, 2021 (2 days before fight)

Paul does not make a pick, noting that there are no odds yet and the fight was announced late. He defers to Cody for information.

"do you have a any sort of information to throw it at at us on this one"
Said Nurmagomedov - Fight History
LOSS vs Bryce Mitchell
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC on ABC: Whittaker vs. de Ridder · Jul 26, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bryce Mitchell 0 13 of 20 65% 39 of 51 3 of 9 33% 0 1 9:44
Said Nurmagomedov 1 20 of 32 62% 100 of 126 0 of 0 --- 1 2 3:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bryce Mitchell 0 10 of 14 71% 21 of 28 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:37
Said Nurmagomedov 1 17 of 25 68% 42 of 56 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:46
2 Bryce Mitchell 0 3 of 5 60% 10 of 12 3 of 4 75% 0 0 3:56
Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 5 20% 31 of 39 0 of 0 --- 0 2 0:50
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 0 of 1 0% 8 of 11 0 of 3 0% 0 1 4:11
Said Nurmagomedov 0 2 of 2 100% 27 of 31 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:37
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bryce Mitchell 13 of 20 65% 3 of 6 7 of 11 3 of 3 5 of 11 8 of 9 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 20 of 32 62% 13 of 24 5 of 5 2 of 3 13 of 19 1 of 3 6 of 10
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bryce Mitchell 10 of 14 71% 2 of 3 5 of 8 3 of 3 5 of 9 5 of 5 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 17 of 25 68% 11 of 19 4 of 4 2 of 2 11 of 15 1 of 1 5 of 9
2 Bryce Mitchell 3 of 5 60% 1 of 2 2 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 1 3 of 4 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 5 20% 0 of 3 1 of 1 0 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 2 0 of 0
3 Bryce Mitchell 0 of 1 0% 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 1 0 of 0 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 2 of 2 100% 2 of 2 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 1
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Bryce Mitchell vs. Said Nurmagomedov
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Mitchell (-125); Nurmagomedov (+105)

Round 1
Hoping the answer to his problems is a change in weight, the much-maligned Mitchell (17-3, 8-3 UFC) is shifting gears to 135 pounds in hopes of a new lease on life. He will not receive an easy challenge in the division that many suggest is the best in the sport, as he tangles with Nurmagomedov (18-4, 7-3 UFC). While of a different mold than many of the other men that share his name, this Russian presents danger on the feet as well as on the mat. Referee Jim Perdios will keep things on the up-and-up. There is no fist bump between the bantamweights.
Although Nurmagomedov offers, Mitchell ignores it and kicks him in the lead knee. When Mitchell kicks a second time, Nurmagomedov counters with one upside the head that lands cleanly. Nurmagomedov bounces off the wall to plant a left hand on the chin, circling on the outside and waiting for Mitchell to throw so he can counter with an overhand right. Mitchell ties up the Dagestan native with a body lock, and Nurmagomedov is able to bounce off his knees when they both hit the floor together. Mitchell remains tightly pressed to his opponent, kneeing him once in the stomach while he otherwise hangs on closely. Mitchell stalls out in this position other than offering the occasional knee, and fans loudly ask for the fighters to be split up.
Nurmagomedov takes matters into his own hands, breaking free and cracking Mitchell with a right hand. Mitchell has some swelling on his left cheek and a cut under his right eye, but it is a knee that blasts into his chin that does the real damage. Mitchell goes flying to his back, and Nurmagomedov slashes through his guard to drop down punctuating punches and devastating elbows. Mitchell tries to throw his legs up for a submission setup like a triangle choke, and Nurmagomedov is wise to it as he keeps working on Mitchells side. Mitchell wraps his right leg up and around the shoulder for a moment, but his omoplata shoulder lock setup falls apart before he can get anywhere. Mitchell defends himself well while on his back, staying active to dissuade Nurmagomedov from getting reckless. Nurmagomedov hammers down a single elbow before Mitchell explodes to his feet, where the American hunts for a body lock takedown of his own. He bullies Nurmagomedov to the wall, holding him there until the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Mitchell rushes out of his corner to engage and start the second round, where it takes him less than 10 seconds to shoot for a takedown. Nurmagomedov defends with a guillotine choke, and Mitchell elevates him and trips him out to break out of the choke and establish top position. When Mitchell lands on top, he isolates Nurmagomedov’s left arm in search of a kimura. Mitchell hangs on as it could also turn into a straight armlock by the way he has the limb stretched, but Nurmagomedov does not appear remotely concerned as he knees Mitchell in the ribs while stuck flat on his back. Mitchell stays holding onto the limb, but he does not have it with both hands so Nurmagomedov raises his hand up to motion to Perdios that he should stand them up. Perdios does not take the bait, and Mitchell releases the grip and pursues an arm-triangle choke.
Nurmagomedov manages to wall-walk to not only get out of the sub but also reverse his position, and Mitchell is able to stand up as well while they are clinched. Mitchell digs a few shots to the body when exerting his weight on the Russian, and he sells out for a single and even rolls over to try to take Nurmagomedov’s back. Nurmagomedov turns to try to escape the back take, and slowly flips Mitchell over to get on top with 45 seconds left in the round. Nurmagomedov quickly advances to the side, and when he tries to take a dominant position. Mitchell uses the moment to fight to his feet and just avoids a knee. Nurmagomedov spins with a back elbow, and Mitchell times a picture-perfect double that puts Nurmagomedov on his back. Nurmagomedov looks to Perdios, who lets time expire as they are tied up in their position.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell

Round 3
Mitchell kicks off the final round looks for a takedown. After a few efforts, he wrangles Nurmagomedov to put his back to the wall, but this is just a trap the Russian has set. Nurmagomedov latches onto a guillotine choke, and he uses it to flip Mitchell to his back and take full mount. Nurmagomedov is unable to complete it, so he lets it go and starts dropping down left hands. Mitchell scrambles to his knees, and Nurmagomedov takes his back and gets a hook in. Mitchell keeps turning to defy the back take and puts the Russian flat on his back once more. Mitchell smothers his opponent, not otherwise attacking in terms of strikes or submissions, so that he can remain on top.
Mitchell holds on with an arm-triangle choke from the opposite side, and Nurmagomedov settles for kneeing him in the side a few times to little effect. Nurmagomedov is warned for putting his toes in the fence to pull himself to a more advantageous position. Nurmagomedov grabs the fence again with his fingers, and Perdios swats his hand and then foot out of the links. Nurmagomedov turns to surrender his back in an effort to stand, but Mitchell is on him like a dog with a bone and he wraps up a body triangle around the Dagestan native’s waist. Mitchell hangs on, and Nurmagomedov has his toes still hooked in the fence as Perdios has to smack his toes again to pull them out of it. They turn to an awkward position, and this 135-pound affair draws to a close.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Chris Laporte scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Mitchell (29-28 Mitchell)

The Official Result
Bryce Mitchell def. Said Nurmagomedov via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Hesitant picked Jul 20, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

Angelo picks Bryce Mitchell but with very low confidence (50.5%). He notes Mitchell's dominant wrestling and submission threat, but worries about his move to 135 lbs and his chin. Said Nurmagomedov has questionable takedown defense but a dangerous guillotine. Angelo will monitor the line and may flip his pick.

"I'm going to pick Bryce because of what I think is going to be a pretty healthy wrestling advantage. But I'm definitely going to keep an eye on this fight."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 22, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, favoring his striking and submission threats. He worries about Bryce Mitchell's tendency to put his neck in bad spots when shooting takedowns, and notes Nurmagomedov has nasty front chokes. He believes Mitchell will struggle to hold Nurmagomedov down and predicts a second-round submission via front choke.

second round submission
"I'm going to take Nurmagamedov to win this fight. I'll take him to win this fight by second round submission."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2025 (3 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Many think Mitchell should grind out Nurmagomedov, but it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov snatching up the neck and forcing the tap.

submission
"I think it only takes one mistake for Mitchell to lead to Nurmagomedov eventually snatching up the neck and forcing the tap for Mitchell."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 24, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Bryce Mitchell

The MMA Guru picks Bryce Mitchell, citing his size and strength advantage at bantamweight, and his ability to grapple tall to avoid guillotines. He notes Said Nurmagomedov's guillotine threat but believes Mitchell's physicality and grappling control will be the difference. He predicts a close 29-28 decision win for Mitchell.

"I'm going to go with Bryce Mitchell. ... I'm actually going to say that he gets this one done by decision. ... 2928."
Decision R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Adesanya vs. Imavov · Feb 01, 2025
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 79 48% 69 of 111 1 of 9 11% 0 0 0:58
Vinicius Oliveira 0 43 of 94 45% 68 of 125 3 of 5 60% 1 0 7:12
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 12 of 21 57% 28 of 37 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:09
Vinicius Oliveira 0 3 of 14 21% 5 of 16 2 of 4 50% 0 0 2:44
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 38 34% 21 of 46 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:49
Vinicius Oliveira 0 21 of 45 46% 26 of 51 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:54
3 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 20 65% 20 of 28 0 of 3 0% 0 0 0:00
Vinicius Oliveira 0 19 of 35 54% 37 of 58 0 of 0 --- 1 0 3:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 79 48% 18 of 54 13 of 17 7 of 8 37 of 76 1 of 3 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 43 of 94 45% 24 of 63 11 of 18 8 of 13 31 of 74 2 of 5 10 of 15
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 12 of 21 57% 6 of 14 2 of 3 4 of 4 11 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 3 of 14 21% 2 of 9 1 of 2 0 of 3 3 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 2
2 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 38 34% 3 of 25 7 of 9 3 of 4 13 of 36 0 of 2 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 21 of 45 46% 8 of 25 7 of 13 6 of 7 19 of 40 2 of 5 0 of 0
3 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 20 65% 9 of 15 4 of 5 0 of 0 13 of 20 0 of 0 0 of 0
Vinicius Oliveira 19 of 35 54% 14 of 29 3 of 3 2 of 3 9 of 22 0 of 0 10 of 13
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Said Nurmagomedov vs. Vinicius Oliveira

Round 1
They move the line forward in the 135-pound weight class, as Nurmagomedov (18-3, 7-2 UFC) and Oliveira (21-3, 2-0 UFC) meet in a pivotal bantamweight attraction. Hatley officiates. Oliveira steps forward, eats a leg kick and uncorks a left hook. Nurmagomedov stays light on his feet and sends a kick glancing off the Brazilian’s forehead. A spinning back kick to the body sends Oliveira to the canvas. He gets to his feet, only to absorb a stout low kick. Nurmagomedov threatens a guillotine in a scramble, then separates. Another powerful low leg kick from the Russian. Oliveira ducks a spinning backfist. Nurmagomedov briefly secures a takedown, but Oliveira gets back to his feet and drives forward in the clinch. Midway through the round. Oliveira scores with knees to the legs. Inadvertent eye poke from the Brazilian results in a pause. Hatley restarts it. Slapping head kick lands from Nurmagomedov. Chopping overhand right from Nurmagomedov misses and an accidental head butt knocks Oliveira off-balance. He gets back to his feet, eats a flying knee and manages to score a takedown. Oliveira navigates the guard and scores with ground-and-pound. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet. The round ends in the clinch.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Nurmegomedov
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Nurmagomedov

Round 2
Oliveira steps forward, and they trade body kicks. Nurmagomedov throw a kick high, only to get blocked. Leg kick from the Russian, who ducks in, shoot on the hips and hunts a takedown. Oliveira denies his efforts. A clinch battle ensues. Knee up the middle on the break from Nurmagomedov. Oliveira presses the issue behind punches and executes a takedown. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet without much issues and gets his kicks in gear in the center of the cage. Right hand over the top from the Russian draws a thumbs up from Oliveira. Nurmagomedov complains about an eye poke, leaves his guard down and eats a few punches for his troubles. He circles behind Oliveira, resets and secures a brief takedown. Output an issue for Nurmagomedov, who appears to be tiring. Oliveira moves forward behind punches from both hands and lands a glancing uppercut, then misses on a wild spinning backfist. Weary punches from both men to end the frame.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira

Round 3
Anyone’s fight with five minutes to go. Oliveira presses forward behind a body kick and punches. Nurmagomedov slips throwing a kick. Oliveira dives in top position and works in full guard. He scores with short punches. Nurmagomedov scrambles from underneath. Oliveira draws a warning for grabbing the cage and another for strikes to the back of the head. He powers into half guard and briefly achieves full mount. Nurmagomedov escapes and snatches a single-leg. Oliveira sprawls and circles, then locks in a brabo choke. He bails and throws elbows instead. Ninety seconds left. Oliveira connects with a knee to the body on the kneeling Nurmagomedov. The momentum has certainly shifted. Nurmagomedov gets back to his feet but looks gassed. His movements are woefully labored. Oliveira doubles up on right hooks and connects with a side kick to the body. Nurmagomedov scores with a spinning backfist, but his opponent appears unmoved. Oliveira sprawls on a takedown attempt from the Russian and wheels behind him with 30 seconds remaining. Nurmagomedov clings to a single-leg but has neither the energy nor wherewithal to do anything with it.

Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (30-27 Oliveira)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Oliveira (29-28 Oliveira)

The Official Result
Vinicius Oliveira def. Said Nurmagomedov—Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jan 26, 2025 (6 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Angelo picks Vinicius Oliveira as an underdog, noting his length, durability, and creativity. He believes Oliveira's chaotic style and takedown defense (defended 9 takedowns against Ricky Simon) will trouble Said Nurmagomedov. He worries that Oliveira's recklessness could lead to a submission, but thinks his aggression and power will be enough.

"I'm picking venicius here I picked him a few weeks ago when he was a plus 225 underdog now he's a plus 145 Underdog"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 27, 2025 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady is impressed with Said Nurmagomedov's striking and submission game. He thinks Vinicius Oliveira is hitable and has been finished in all his losses. Brady predicts Nurmagomedov will catch Oliveira with a spinning attack or submit him, possibly via a club-and-sub. He calls Nurmagomedov a finisher and expects a second-round submission.

second round submission
"I like nag medov here I'll say he wins by I'll say I'll say submission maybe like a club and sub for nag mov here I I'll say nagan mov second round sub"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Nurmagomedov, believing his well-rounded game and wrestling will overcome Oliveira's wild aggression. He notes that Oliveira is a formless bully who cuts a lot of weight, but Nurmagomedov has the tools to neutralize him and find submissions. However, he acknowledges that Oliveira's chaotic style could make the fight uncomfortable and that Nurmagomedov has struggled with physical pressure in the past.

"I still think he's so good and so well-rounded. He should just have free opportunities to hit all of it. Yeah. And should be able to. And the wrestling. Get to yeah, take him down, get him in a position …"
LU
Lucrative James Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

James picks Oliveira to win, citing Nurmagomedov's poor cardio and tendency to gas out, as seen in recent fights. He believes Oliveira's pressure, size, and strength will overwhelm Nurmagomedov in later rounds. He notes Nurmagomedov's submission threat (ninja choke) but thinks Oliveira can survive and win by decision or late knockout. He sees Oliveira's trajectory rising while Nurmagomedov's is declining.

Oliveira by decision is implied; mentions knockout upside.
"I'm going to side with Olivier on this one I really am I think Venus is going to win the fight"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Vinicius Oliveira

Oliveira's output and volume will cause Nurmagomedov trouble, as Nurmagomedov is more reliant on finishes. If he can't get Oliveira out of there early, he will struggle with the volume coming back. Oliveira is expected to win on the scorecards.

"I believe the output and volume of Oliveira will cause Nurmagomedov a lot of trouble... look for Oliveira to win this fight on the scorecards."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Jan 28, 2025 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov in a close fight. He notes Oliveira is rangy and well-rounded, but Nurmagomedov has finishing potential and experience. He worries about Nurmagomedov's performance against Jonathan Martinez but believes he can win the first two rounds and edge a decision. He mentions Oliveira's short-notice loss to Bernardo Sopaj as a factor.

"I'll go say n medov over Venicia oliv you know... I'm G to go sayov over visha Oliva"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Jan 30, 2025 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, agreeing that his technical edge and wrestling should prevail. He notes that Oliveira's lack of defense and tendency to scramble hard will give Nurmagomedov opportunities. However, Zane warns that Oliveira's size and pace could cause problems, and that Nurmagomedov has a history of slowing down under physical pressure. He still sees Nurmagomedov as the rightful favorite.

"I still think he's so good and so well-rounded. He should just have free opportunities to hit all of it. Yeah. And should be able to. And the wrestling. Get to yeah, take him down, get him in a position …"
WIN vs Muin Gafurov
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 1:13 · UFC 294: Makhachev vs. Volkanovski 2 · Oct 21, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Muin Gafurov 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 5 of 11 45% 5 of 11 0 of 0 --- 1 0 0:03
Muin Gafurov 0 1 of 3 33% 1 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:07
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 5 of 11 45% 2 of 7 2 of 2 1 of 2 5 of 11 0 of 0 0 of 0
Muin Gafurov 1 of 3 33% 0 of 2 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 3 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Oct 15, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov but fades the bet. He notes Gafurov's wrestling could be a problem, as seen when Kakhramonov dominated Said with takedowns. However, he thinks Gafurov might get sucked into a brawl, where Said's striking will prevail. He is wary of the clear path to beat Said via wrestling.

fade the bet
"s marov is going to be the pick here but again this is another fight that could just be sort of a trap"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by second round submission. He notes that Gafurov is reckless, gets hurt often, and has a questionable chin, while Nurmagomedov has power and a dangerous guillotine. Brady expects Nurmagomedov to hurt Gafurov on the feet, then snatch a submission when Gafurov shoots for a takedown.

second round submission
"see meide her magedov to win this fight by second round submission"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody picks Nurmagomedov, emphasizing his well-rounded skills and ability to mix striking with wrestling. He notes that Gafurov gasses out and has been out-struck by lesser opponents, while Nurmagomedov has better speed, volume, and wrestling. Cody expects Nurmagomedov to drown Gafurov in deeper waters and win a decision or late finish.

"I like Said quite a bit so again here's no actual relation to Khabib Nurmagomedov but he's rocking that last name and he's trying to do them proud"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Oct 19, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Daniel picks Said Nurmagomedov to win, citing his length, explosiveness, and dynamic kicking style. He notes that Nurmagomedov has a gas tank issue due to his explosive style but believes he is on a different level than Gafurov. He respects Gafurov's heart and well-roundedness but thinks the athleticism and size disparity will be too much. He expects Nurmagomedov to win a decision but says Gafurov could raise his stock in defeat.

Nurmagomedov minus 205, Gafurov plus 175; mentions possibility of decision
"My pick is s Nago medov um I think the length the explosiveness is going to be a little bit too much for gaffo."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Lean picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Muin Gafurov

Nurmagomedov lacks output and assertiveness, relying on spectacular finishes. Gafurov has good forward movement, volume, and a wrestling game. He can set the pace and manage his gas tank better. As long as Gafurov doesn't get caught in a choke or knocked out, he can win by decision. He is a solid underdog spot.

"I think he could be a solid Underdog spot here against Nar goov"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Oct 17, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Paul picks Nurmagomedov, citing his diverse striking, high fight IQ, and ability to adapt. He notes that Gafurov has poor cardio and has struggled against lower-level competition, while Nurmagomedov has shown he can compete with top bantamweights. Paul expects Nurmagomedov to use his speed and wrestling to outwork Gafurov, likely winning a decision.

Said by decision (+230)
"I think Said by decision is how I would approach this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 16, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru calls this a mismatch and picks Said Nurmagomedov. He notes that Gafurov lost to John Castaneda and Chad Anheliger, while Nurmagomedov had a close fight with Jonathan Martinez, who is very good. He believes Nurmagomedov is top-15 level and has higher finishing potential.

"I think this is an absolute mismatch I don't know why they've done this one"
Decision (unanimous) (29–28, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC Fight Night: Yan vs. Dvalishvili · Mar 11, 2023
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jonathan Martinez 0 47 of 78 60% 101 of 134 3 of 9 33% 2 0 4:21
Said Nurmagomedov 0 38 of 55 69% 78 of 96 0 of 1 0% 1 0 6:09
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jonathan Martinez 0 21 of 35 60% 34 of 48 1 of 3 33% 2 0 0:59
Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 21 61% 17 of 25 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:04
2 Jonathan Martinez 0 16 of 25 64% 28 of 38 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:46
Said Nurmagomedov 0 15 of 22 68% 26 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:16
3 Jonathan Martinez 0 10 of 18 55% 39 of 48 1 of 3 33% 0 0 2:36
Said Nurmagomedov 0 10 of 12 83% 35 of 38 0 of 0 --- 1 0 1:49
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jonathan Martinez 47 of 78 60% 25 of 50 14 of 19 8 of 9 31 of 57 12 of 14 4 of 7
Said Nurmagomedov 38 of 55 69% 13 of 25 7 of 8 18 of 22 22 of 37 13 of 15 3 of 3
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jonathan Martinez 21 of 35 60% 8 of 19 8 of 10 5 of 6 14 of 27 7 of 8 0 of 0
Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 21 61% 4 of 9 4 of 5 5 of 7 8 of 15 5 of 6 0 of 0
2 Jonathan Martinez 16 of 25 64% 9 of 16 5 of 7 2 of 2 10 of 19 5 of 5 1 of 1
Said Nurmagomedov 15 of 22 68% 6 of 11 1 of 1 8 of 10 8 of 14 4 of 5 3 of 3
3 Jonathan Martinez 10 of 18 55% 8 of 15 1 of 2 1 of 1 7 of 11 0 of 1 3 of 6
Said Nurmagomedov 10 of 12 83% 3 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 5 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, low kicks, …"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy not stationary …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a little trickier …"
Submission (ninja choke) R2 3:50 · UFC Fight Night: Cannonier vs. Strickland · Dec 17, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 18 38% 21 of 34 0 of 2 0% 3 0 0:25
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 0 11 of 30 36% 32 of 65 5 of 12 41% 1 0 7:52
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 3 of 12 25% 13 of 24 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:09
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 0 7 of 15 46% 17 of 27 2 of 6 33% 1 0 4:29
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 4 of 6 66% 8 of 10 0 of 1 0% 2 0 0:16
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 0 4 of 15 26% 15 of 38 3 of 6 50% 0 0 3:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 7 of 18 38% 3 of 12 3 of 5 1 of 1 3 of 12 4 of 6 0 of 0
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 11 of 30 36% 8 of 27 3 of 3 0 of 0 5 of 10 0 of 1 6 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 3 of 12 25% 0 of 7 3 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 10 1 of 2 0 of 0
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 7 of 15 46% 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 0 4 of 8 0 of 1 3 of 6
2 Said Nurmagomedov 4 of 6 66% 3 of 5 0 of 0 1 of 1 1 of 2 3 of 4 0 of 0
Saidyokub Kakhramonov 4 of 15 26% 4 of 15 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 13
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Dec 11, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Angelo picks Kakhramonov, hoping he brings the same wrestling pace as in his last fight against Ronnie Lawrence, where he had 10 takedowns and 12 minutes of control. He notes that Said Nurmagomedov is not a wrestler despite his last name, but a flashy striker with only two takedowns in the UFC. He expects Kakhramonov to bully Said.

"I like hakramanov in this fight I hope that he has that same energy here that same wrestling Pace here that he did against Ronnie"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Big Brady picks Kakhramonov as an underdog, impressed by his wins over Ronnie Lawrence (taking him down 10 times) and Trevin Jones (submission). He thinks Kakhramonov is a different level and can pass this test against Nurmagomedov, who he's never been high on. He expects a close, competitive fight but picks Kakhramonov by decision.

Kakhramonov wins by decision
"I like Cocker Mana the dude's only 27 years old I don't think it's going to be an easy fight by any means... I'm gonna take cockerman after to win this fight I'm gonna take him to Win It by …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Cody picks Kakhramonov, noting his size and strength advantage. He thinks Kakhramonov will get takedowns and control the fight. He was impressed by his performance against Ronnie Lawrence where he ragdolled him. He expects a decision win for Kakhramonov.

Kakhramonov by decision
"I gotta say kakramona of a cracker modified decision that's what I'm gonna go with"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Hesitant picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Connor picks Nurmagomedov but is hesitant, calling it a trap fight. He thinks Nurmagomedov can find enough moments to land big and take advantage of Kakhramonov's wild entries. However, he notes Kakhramonov is a dogged technical wrestler who could steal momentum.

"I'm gonna pick Nurmagomedov still but you know this has the feeling of a trap"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Dec 17, 2022 (fight day)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Kakhramonov is relentless with takedowns and has better technical wrestling than Nurmagomedov's previous opponents. Nurmagomedov has the striking advantage but doesn't give himself many chances to win outside of a finish. Lesser wrestlers have had grappling success against Nurmagomedov, and Kakhramonov will grind out a win.

2 units at -107
"the guy moves forward the guy Relentless with his takedown she was the better technical wrestler that night and had likely the cardio Advantage which is why I think that he came out on top"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Dec 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

Paul picks Kakhramonov, agreeing with Cody. He was surprised by his performance against Lawrence and thinks he is a real prospect. He notes Kakhramonov has good wrestling and size. He expects a decision but acknowledges judging could be an issue.

"I'm with you I got cockramanum I got cockerman of by decision"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Dec 13, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Saidyokub Kakhramonov

The MMA Guru picks Saidyokub Kakhramonov over Said Nurmagomedov, going against the majority. He questions Nurmagomedov's cardio, noting he slowed down against Douglas Silva de Andrade and Kyler Phillips. He praises Kakhramonov's pace and wrestling, citing his 10 takedowns against Ronnie Lawrence. He believes Kakhramonov will drown Nurmagomedov as the fight goes on and get an upset 29-28 decision. He also notes Kakhramonov is younger at 27 and still improving, while Nurmagomedov is 30 and may be at his peak.

"I'm going inside Jacob kakaramanov here younger I believe more dangerous"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Dec 15, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov but is leaning, noting it's a wide open fight. He thinks Nurmagomedov can win rounds with single moments and kick Kakhramonov's legs. However, he acknowledges Kakhramonov's wrestling could be a problem and that Nurmagomedov's striking is pot-shotty.

"I think Nurmagomedov can find enough moments to land big can take enough advantage of the wildness"
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 29–28, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC on ESPN: dos Anjos vs. Fiziev · Jul 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 28 of 74 37% 44 of 95 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:12
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 42 of 97 43% 77 of 150 1 of 5 20% 0 0 0:22
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 8 of 22 36% 10 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:31
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 9 of 30 30% 24 of 46 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:02
2 Said Nurmagomedov 0 13 of 32 40% 14 of 33 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:20
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 21 of 41 51% 24 of 46 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
3 Said Nurmagomedov 0 7 of 20 35% 20 of 34 1 of 1 100% 0 0 2:21
Douglas Silva de Andrade 0 12 of 26 46% 29 of 58 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:20
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 28 of 74 37% 4 of 34 11 of 19 13 of 21 24 of 66 2 of 3 2 of 5
Douglas Silva de Andrade 42 of 97 43% 21 of 69 12 of 18 9 of 10 39 of 89 3 of 8 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 8 of 22 36% 0 of 9 2 of 3 6 of 10 7 of 20 1 of 2 0 of 0
Douglas Silva de Andrade 9 of 30 30% 4 of 22 2 of 4 3 of 4 9 of 28 0 of 2 0 of 0
2 Said Nurmagomedov 13 of 32 40% 3 of 16 4 of 8 6 of 8 12 of 30 0 of 0 1 of 2
Douglas Silva de Andrade 21 of 41 51% 11 of 30 7 of 8 3 of 3 19 of 38 2 of 3 0 of 0
3 Said Nurmagomedov 7 of 20 35% 1 of 9 5 of 8 1 of 3 5 of 16 1 of 1 1 of 3
Douglas Silva de Andrade 12 of 26 46% 6 of 17 3 of 6 3 of 3 11 of 23 1 of 3 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 3, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his cleaner and more versatile striking technique and solid defense. He notes Douglas Silva de Andrade has more power but a negative striking differential. He believes Nurmagomedov's pace and striking defense will allow him to outpoint Silva de Andrade, though he must avoid the power. He sees this as a striker vs striker matchup.

"I like said to win here because he sets a nice pace and not only has the striking offense but the defense as well."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov, praising his flashy striking, defensive soundness, and youth. He notes that Nurmagomedov is hard to hit and has a well-rounded game with wrestling in his back pocket. He believes Silva de Andrade, despite his power and toughness, will struggle with Nurmagomedov's movement and volume. Brady predicts a decision win for Nurmagomedov, though he acknowledges a finish is possible.

"i really like nurmagomedov in this fight and i like him to win it"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Cody thinks Said's superior speed, footwork, and lateral movement will be key against the shorter, stockier de Andrade. He believes Said can stay at distance and chip away, and has multiple paths to victory including a finish. He acknowledges de Andrade's durability and toughness but sees Said as the safer play.

Mentions over 2.5 rounds at +100 as a possible play.
"i think he's got a safe route to uh to a decision might be able to finish someone inside the distance and for that reason yeah yeah i've got to have some confidence in them"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert picked Jul 9, 2022 (fight day)

The host does not make a pick on the winner of this fight. He only bets on the under 2.5 rounds prop, which is his lock of the night play. He expects a finish regardless of who wins, likely from Nurmagomedov within the first two rounds. He does not pick a side on the moneyline.

Lock of the night: 4 units on under 2.5 rounds at -125. Expects Nurmagomedov to win quickly.
"the normaga Madoff and Dion draws under two and a half I have four units on minus 125 which makes it my luck of the Night play I'm quite confident that no matter which side wins this will they will …"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert picked Jul 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)

Paul is torn on this fight. He loves de Andrade as a dog but thinks the price is too wide. He calls it a dogger pass situation, noting that de Andrade has shown heart and durability but Said is very skilled. He doesn't commit to a pick.

"me i'm kind of staring as like a dogger pass but i wanted to hear what you had to say is there is there any merit to it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, noting his range and body kicks will trouble the shorter de Andrade. He predicts a submission (guillotine) in the second round, possibly after hurting de Andrade to the body. He mentions de Andrade's age (37) as a factor.

submission (guillotine) in the second round
"I'm going to go with Said Nurmagomedov getting this one done."
WIN vs Cody Stamann
Submission (guillotine choke) R1 0:47 · UFC 270: Ngannou vs. Gane · Jan 22, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Cody Stamann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:10
Cody Stamann 0 7 of 13 53% 7 of 13 0 of 1 0% 1 0 0:02
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 7 of 13 53% 4 of 9 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 1 of 4 25% 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 4 0 of 0 0 of 0
Cody Stamann 7 of 13 53% 4 of 9 1 of 2 2 of 2 7 of 13 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Angelo picks Cody Stamann, expecting his pace and takedowns to frustrate a ring-rusty Nurmagomedov. He compares it to Barcelos vs Nurmagomedov where Barcelos won a decision. He admits it's not a confident pick but likes Cody in that matchup.

"i like cody here cody's the pick it's not like a tent pole underdog pick where i'm a thousand percent sure but i do like cody in that match up"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov to win by decision, citing his striking advantage, volume, defense, and significant reach and height advantages. He notes that Stamann's path to victory is takedowns, but Stamann struggles to control opponents and Nurmagomedov has good takedown defense and scrambling. He expects the fight to stay on the feet where Nurmagomedov will outpoint Stamann.

Nurmagomedov by decision; mentions the fight will be closer than the line indicates
"give me your margaret off i do think the fight is going to be closer than the line does indicate"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Cody picks Cody Stamann as a live underdog, arguing that the line is off because people assume Nurmagomedov has grappling like other Nurmagomedovs, but Said is primarily a striker. He notes that Said has been taken down before (e.g., by Bibilatov) and that Stamann has good wrestling and game plans. Cody believes Stamann will use takedowns and top control to win a decision, and likes the plus money.

Cody Stamann by decision +260
"I think Cody Stamann's a live dog here... the line's way off and Cody Stamann definitely has the potential to win based on the grappling."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Jan 20, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Daniel Levi leans toward Said Nurmagomedov but is not confident enough to lay the -200 price. He notes Nurmagomedov's explosive striking and six-inch reach advantage, but acknowledges Stamann's wrestling and ability to make fights close. Levi thinks Stamann can be competitive with anyone and that the fight could be a split decision. He ultimately gives a slight edge to Nurmagomedov due to his flashy striking and crowd-pleasing style.

Fight goes to decision; close fight expected
"i kind of think that syed's slightly better so i'm going to lean him but i'm not trying to lay that that big chalk price here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jan 18, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

The host believes the line is inflated due to the 'Russian tax' on Nurmagomedov. He argues that Stamann has the wrestling advantage and will be able to take Nurmagomedov down, especially in later rounds. He notes that Nurmagomedov prefers to strike from range, but Stamann can crash the pocket and use his wrestling. He expects Stamann to win a decision by out-grappling and out-working Nurmagomedov.

Stamann by decision
"i think cody stamen wins this fight on optics and takedowns and i think that the judges gave it to him so uh official prediction here is going to be cody steeman pulling off the upset via decision"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jan 19, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Cody Stamann

Paul agrees with Cody, picking Stamann as a live dog. He notes that Said's wrestling hasn't been tested at UFC level and that Stamann is a bigger bantamweight who has fought tough competition. Paul believes Stamann's wrestling and game planning will expose Said's defensive weaknesses. He also mentions that Stamann has scored takedowns in his last four fights.

"I think the line's way off and Cody Stamann definitely has the potential to win based on the grappling."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 17, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, citing his youth, improvements, and recent first-round KO of Mark Striegl. He believes Nurmagomedov can stuff takedowns and outwork Stamann, predicting a second-round spinning back kick to the body TKO. He notes Stamann's recent losses and crying incident as signs of decline.

second round spinning back kick to the body
"i'm actually going to call a second round spinning back kick to the body for saying now mkhmed off here"
WIN vs Mark Striegl
KO (punches) R1 0:51 · UFC Fight Night: Ortega vs. The Korean Zombie · Oct 18, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Said Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mark Striegl 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Said Nurmagomedov 0 18 of 24 75% 18 of 24 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Mark Striegl 0 3 of 7 42% 3 of 7 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Said Nurmagomedov 18 of 24 75% 17 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 7 4 of 4 11 of 13
Mark Striegl 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Said Nurmagomedov 18 of 24 75% 17 of 22 0 of 0 1 of 2 3 of 7 4 of 4 11 of 13
Mark Striegl 3 of 7 42% 1 of 5 0 of 0 2 of 2 3 of 7 0 of 0 0 of 0
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Oct 14, 2020 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Big Brady picks Said Nurmagomedov because he is the better striker and has solid defensive grappling, never having been submitted. He believes Striegl's path to victory is a submission, but Nurmagomedov's takedown defense and ability to get back to his feet make him confident. He notes the line is wide but sees it as an okay parlay piece.

parlay piece
"i'm going to go with the better striker here i think it'll primarily play out on the feet maybe strickle gets a takedown um but i'm confident nirmagameto is able to you know fight off those submission attempts or even …"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Oct 11, 2020 (7 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov because he has faced much higher level competition than Mark Striegl, who has a questionable record with many losses. He notes that Nurmagomedov's close fight with Hani Barcelos shows his skill, and that Striegl is older and past his prime. He expects a unanimous decision win.

"i think i'm going to go with saying namadov just because i don't think mark striegel's fought the level of competition that sayed has throughout his career"
Expert Picks (8)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 5, 2023 (6 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Angelo picks Said Nurmagomedov as the better pure striker, noting his versatility and ability to find ways to win. He acknowledges that Martinez has wrestling and can take Said down, but believes Said's striking advantage and proven ability to snatch submissions make him the pick. He thinks the fight is closer than the -200 odds suggest.

"DeMarco Madoff is going to be the pick because I think he's the better overall Striker and he has proven to us time and time again that he can just find ways to win"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Big Brady picks Jonathan Martinez as a pretty big dog, questioning why Nurmagomedov is such a heavy favorite. He notes Nurmagomedov has only completed two takedowns in the UFC and doesn't wrestle like his last name suggests. Brady likes Martinez's volume and kicks, expects a close fight, and predicts a split decision win for Martinez.

win by split decision
"give me Martinez to pull off the upset I think it's to be a close fight though but these odds aren't indicating that this fight is going to be close at all"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Cody also picks Martinez, echoing Paul's thoughts on the inflated line. He highlights Martinez's volume and kicking game, and doubts Nurmagomedov's ability to finish. He thinks Martinez can win a decision and likes the plus money.

Martinez by decision +375
"I'm gonna back Jonathan Martinez here because I see a lot of the same things that you do"
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Connor picks Martinez, citing his improved pressure and commitment to kicking. He notes that Martinez has worked on his retreats and angles, and that Nurmagomedov makes poor decisions with flashy techniques. Connor believes Martinez's meat-and-potatoes kickboxing will be effective, and that Nurmagomedov's tendency to retreat and spin will leave him open. He acknowledges it's a close fight but favors Martinez's discipline.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm kind of leaning Martinez here just cause I think he's a little more committed to pressuring and in fact, notably more committed to pressuring. ... Martinez is just very meat and potatoes with his kickboxing combinations, hard, low kicks, stepping into the clinch landing a few strikes."
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Hesitant picked Mar 6, 2023 (5 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

I like Martinez as the underdog here. His kick-heavy style and volume should keep Nurmagomedov at range. Nurmagomedov's low output and tendency to have close fights could be his downfall. However, I have a bad feeling that Nurmagomedov might catch Martinez with something. I think Martinez wins by decision, but I'm not fully confident.

"I like him in this spot I like him as the underdog I just have this bad feeling in the back of my head that normaga Madoff is going to end up catching him in something"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Mar 8, 2023 (3 days before fight)
Jonathan Martinez

Paul picks Martinez as an underdog, believing the line is inflated due to Nurmagomedov's name. He notes Martinez's diverse kicking game, volume, and recent win over Cub Swanson. He thinks Nurmagomedov's striking is overrated and that Martinez can outwork him over three rounds.

Martinez by decision +375
"I will take some Underdog action there on Jamar"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 7, 2023 (4 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

The MMA Guru picks Said Nurmagomedov, trusting his grappling and tricky footwork. He notes that Martinez relies on kicks, and Nurmagomedov's movement will evade them. He believes Nurmagomedov has more options to win, including finishing potential, and will take a decision.

by decision
"I'm going to trust him to win this one Jonathan Martinez relies on his kicks a lot if Say Moves Like A guy who's good at evading kicks with his footwork and his movement very high movement guy not stationary to just be kicked as he plods forward or anything …"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Lean picked Mar 9, 2023 (2 days before fight)
Said Nurmagomedov

Zane picks Nurmagomedov, citing his speed and dynamic striking. He notes that both fighters have similar flaws but Nurmagomedov is faster and more confident. Zane believes that in a long-range kickboxing match, Nurmagomedov's athleticism and trickier attacks will give him the edge. He acknowledges Martinez's improvements but thinks Nurmagomedov's confidence and speed are decisive.

Odds mentioned: Martinez opened +190, now +203; Nurmagomedov opened -225, now -253.
"I'm going to take Nurmagomedov. I think for me, this is just one of those points where two guys are going to come out doing a lot of the same thing and one's a little faster and a little trickier and more dynamic."