vs
-340 +375
UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024 · Catchweight (147.25 lb) · Completed
Prev Fight UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot Next Fight
Age 36
Height 5' 7"
Reach 70.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Southpaw
Age 38
Height 5' 9"
Reach 73.0"
Weight 145 lbs.
Stance Orthodox
Career Averages - Julio Arce
4.36 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
3.05 SApM
68.0% Str. Def.
0.46 TD Avg
28.0% TD Acc.
96.0% TD Def.
0.3 Sub. Avg
Career Averages - Herbert Burns
1.86 SLpM
36.0% Str. Acc.
5.17 SApM
41.0% Str. Def.
2.94 TD Avg
34.0% TD Acc.
66.0% TD Def.
1.8 Sub. Avg
Julio Arce
Moneyline
DraftKings -340
KO/TKO
FanDuel +120
Submission
BetRivers +575
Decision
BetRivers +320
Herbert Burns
Moneyline
BetWay +375
KO/TKO
FanDuel +1600
Submission
BetMGM +650
Decision
BetRivers +1300
Julio Arce - Fight History
WIN vs Herbert Burns
TKO (punches) R2 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 2 29 of 79 36% 29 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 57 26% 20 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Herbert Burns 0 11 of 37 29% 16 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Julio Arce 2 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Herbert Burns 0 4 of 20 20% 4 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 29 of 79 36% 19 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 2 20 of 68 9 of 11 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 57 26% 9 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 10 of 38 26% 5 of 31 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 11 of 37 29% 7 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 2 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 19 of 41 46% 14 of 34 4 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 31 8 of 10 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 4 of 20 20% 2 of 16 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

"Julio rce should win this fight if Julio wasn't coming off his own very long layoff I actually would consider him for the safety parlay but at minus 550 with a full year away I'm just going to enjoy whatever …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

"I can never bet Herbert Birds just can't do it but I will admit at minus 400"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

"the pick is Julio but this is a doger pass situation at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Arce round 3
"I'm going to go RSA RSA round three give him a little time to really get into his Groove and then from there get burns out of there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

"I can see why Julio Arch would be the favorite but at minus 400 is there any meat on the bone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce to survive an early storm from Herbert Burns and then take over. He believes Burns will go for a takedown early, but Arce will work his way out. Once things don't go Burns' way, he expects Burns to break and fade. He predicts a late second-round TKO for Arce.

late second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Julio late second round TKO"
LOSS vs Montel Jackson
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 281: Adesanya vs. Pereira · Nov 12, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Montel Jackson 0 26 of 126 20% 44 of 156 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Julio Arce 1 48 of 106 45% 64 of 127 0 of 3 0% 0 0 5:55
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Montel Jackson 0 4 of 22 18% 9 of 27 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:06
Julio Arce 0 5 of 17 29% 15 of 29 0 of 1 0% 0 0 2:09
2 Montel Jackson 0 15 of 58 25% 25 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 19 of 46 41% 24 of 54 0 of 2 0% 0 0 1:12
3 Montel Jackson 0 7 of 46 15% 10 of 57 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 1 24 of 43 55% 25 of 44 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:34
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Montel Jackson 26 of 126 20% 13 of 102 8 of 17 5 of 7 25 of 124 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 48 of 106 45% 39 of 95 5 of 7 4 of 4 33 of 82 4 of 5 11 of 19
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Montel Jackson 4 of 22 18% 2 of 16 1 of 3 1 of 3 4 of 22 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 5 of 17 29% 3 of 15 1 of 1 1 of 1 4 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Montel Jackson 15 of 58 25% 7 of 47 5 of 8 3 of 3 15 of 58 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 19 of 46 41% 13 of 39 3 of 4 3 of 3 18 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
3 Montel Jackson 7 of 46 15% 4 of 39 2 of 6 1 of 1 6 of 44 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 24 of 43 55% 23 of 41 1 of 2 0 of 0 11 of 22 2 of 2 11 of 19
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce vs. Montel Jackson
BETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Jackson (-200), Arce (+170)

Round 1
Arce was victorious in his first appearance of 2022, while Jackson, who has won five of six UFC outings, will return to the Octagon for the first time in 14 months. Marc Goddard will be the third man in the cage. They touch gloves and we’re underway. Jackson changes levels within the first 30 seconds and shoves Arce into the fence. Jackson lands some knees to the body, but one lands on the cup, which prompts a warning from Goddard but no reset. Jackson thinks about a single-leg but Arce defends, and Jackson lands a short punch to the head instead. The crowd is already getting restless as Jackson continues to grind away against the fence. Goddard urges the combatants to stay busy. Arce can’t get his back off the fence and we’re halfway through the round when Goddard orders a restart in the center of the cage. Arce has a kick to the body partially blocked. He’s cautious, perhaps due to the threat of the Jackson takedown. Arce fires a straight to the body followed by a leg kick. Arce pressures and both men exchange jabs. Arce picks up the pace and fires off an overhand left. Jackson moves in with a right hook. Arce pressures as time winds down, and Jackson defends a takedown in the final 10 seconds. Arce muscles his opponent to the mat just before the horn, however.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 2
Arce again takes the center of the cage, and he lands a left hand as he backs Jackson up. An inside leg kick connects for Arce. An outside leg kick lands for Jackson. Arce continues to lead the dance and he moves in behind a right hook, but Jackson lands a counter in response. A right hook connects for Jackson. Another counter right lands for Jackson, who is having more success but isn’t landing in great volume. Jackson connects with a solid right. Arce throws a right hook and Jackson angles out. Jackson is sticking his right hand with some consistency now as Arce pressures. Jackson shoots for a takedown against the fence. He steps around and gets the back of his opponent. Jackson continues to grind away until the horn, mixing in a knee with some dirty boxing.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson

Round 3
Arce comes out throwing combinations, but it’s Jackson who lands a right hand during an initial exchange. Moments later, Jackson puts Arce on his back with a stiff jab. Jackson assumes top position and works to land punches from inside Arce’s guard. Arce seems to have recovered, and he’s very active with his guard. Jackson is struggling to control the hips, and Arce nearly frames a triangle. Jackson works to stack Arce, but he is unable to pass at the 2:30 mark of the round. Arce sits up and then stands. Arce has some swelling under his left eye. Arce is not finding the range on his punches. Jackson finds an opening a tags Arce with a right hand. Arce pressures forward and whiffs on some looping punches. Arce moves in with punches and Jackson ties him up, shoving his foe into the fence. Jackson lands a short right on the break. Jackson with a straight left in the waning seconds, and he dodges a final Arce offering before the horn.

Sherdog Scores
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Jackson (29-28 Jackson)

The Official Result
Montel Jackson def. Julia Arce via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28) R3 5:00
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Nov 6, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Angelo believes Julio Arce is the better technical striker but has a suspect chin. He trusts Montel Jackson's wrestling and power, noting that Jackson's only losses are to wrestlers who out-grappled him. He thinks Jackson will win by using his takedowns and power, rather than trying to out-strike Arce. He mentions that the takedown prop lines will be interesting and that he will likely bet on Jackson's takedowns.

takedown lines on PrizePicks and BetOnline
"I trust montel's takedowns I have him winning this fight"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Big Brady picks Montel Jackson to win by decision. He highlights Jackson's size, reach, power (10 knockdowns in UFC), and wrestling (over 4 takedowns per 15 minutes at 78% accuracy). He notes Arce has good takedown defense (94%) but hasn't faced many wrestlers. He believes Jackson will mix takedowns and land the bigger shots, winning a decision. He also mentions Jackson's youth and power advantage.

Jackson by decision
"give me Montel Jackson to win give me Montel Jackson to win a decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody picks Arce, citing his excellent footwork, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He notes that Jackson has not fought top competition and that Arce's movement and striking should give Jackson trouble. Cody thinks if Jackson can't take Arce down, Arce will outpoint him. He is not highly confident but sees value at plus money.

"I do feel like Julio she has the goods to go out there and pull it off and a plus 175 I'm willing to take a slight flyer on that."
CO
Connor Ruebusch Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Connor picks Arce, noting that Jackson has not improved in four years and lacks depth in his grappling and striking. He points out that Arce is a complete fighter with sharp footwork and counters, and that Jackson's wrestling is not good enough to hold Arce down. Connor also mentions that Arce has been getting better and has faced higher-level competition.

"I think RSA can edge this one out."
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

Daniel Levi picks Montel Jackson, citing his immense talent, power, wrestling, and physical attributes. He notes that Jackson has knockout power and a reach advantage, but his work ethic is questionable. Levi believes if Jackson shows up focused, he can dominate. He respects Arce's point-fighting style but thinks Jackson's power and wrestling will be the difference.

"give me Montel Jackson here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Nov 8, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host believes Arce is the better technical striker with superior footwork and kicks, and his 94% takedown defense should keep the fight standing. He questions Jackson's competition level, noting his wins are over lower-tier opponents and he struggles against better grapplers. Arce's output and volume should frustrate Jackson, leading to a decision win. The host acknowledges Arce's durability concerns but sees value at +175.

"I think that this is a good spot to take an underdog shot on Julio or say at plus 175"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul also leans towards Arce, agreeing with Cody's analysis. He notes that Jackson is enormous for the weight class and that Arce will have to eat shots to get inside, but if Arce keeps the fight standing, it should be close to a pick'em. Paul is not confident but goes with Arce.

"I'll lean ever so slightly towards Julio Archie with you but another spot I'm not too confident in."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Lean picked Nov 7, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Montel Jackson

The MMA Guru picks Montel Jackson, citing his underrated prospect status, massive hands, and physical advantages like a 5.5-inch reach advantage. He believes Jackson can outwork Arce on the feet and predicts a close split decision 29-28. He notes Jackson's grappling defense against good grapplers like Brett Johns and Ricky Simon.

"I'm going with Montel Jackson here"
ZA
Zane Simon Expert Confident picked Nov 10, 2022 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Zane picks Arce, emphasizing that Jackson's striking is one-dimensional and he lacks confidence in it. He notes that Arce's consistent style and ability to handle pressure fighters like Daniel Santos make him a good bet. Zane also points out that Jackson's wins have come against lower-level competition, while Arce has fought tougher opponents.

"I think RSA should be, uh, if anything, a slight to healthy favorite."
WIN vs Daniel Santos
Decision (unanimous) (30–27, 30–27, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 273: Volkanovski vs. The Korean Zombie · Apr 09, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 0 127 of 265 47% 127 of 265 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:18
Daniel Santos 0 49 of 229 21% 49 of 229 0 of 2 0% 0 0 0:46
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 39 of 78 50% 39 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Daniel Santos 0 17 of 70 24% 17 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:35
2 Julio Arce 0 41 of 78 52% 41 of 78 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:17
Daniel Santos 0 18 of 79 22% 18 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:11
3 Julio Arce 0 47 of 109 43% 47 of 109 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Daniel Santos 0 14 of 80 17% 14 of 80 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 127 of 265 47% 100 of 228 25 of 35 2 of 2 125 of 262 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 49 of 229 21% 27 of 197 15 of 24 7 of 8 46 of 225 3 of 4 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 39 of 78 50% 34 of 71 5 of 7 0 of 0 37 of 75 2 of 3 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 17 of 70 24% 10 of 61 4 of 6 3 of 3 16 of 68 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 41 of 78 52% 28 of 61 11 of 15 2 of 2 41 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 18 of 79 22% 9 of 65 6 of 10 3 of 4 17 of 78 1 of 1 0 of 0
3 Julio Arce 47 of 109 43% 38 of 96 9 of 13 0 of 0 47 of 109 0 of 0 0 of 0
Daniel Santos 14 of 80 17% 8 of 71 5 of 8 1 of 1 13 of 79 1 of 1 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce (136.5: Missed Weight) vs. Daniel Gustavo Santos

Round 1
After a much-needed week away for the UFC, the promotion is coming back guns blazing as it takes to Jacksonville, Fla., for a tentpole pay-per-view. Two title fights and a very highly anticipated welterweight showdown will top off the dozen-bout card, and we begin with a fight scheduled at bantamweight that hit a slight snag. Arce (17-5, 4-3 UFC), who missed weight by half a pound, will welcome “Willycat” Santos (8-1, 0-0 UFC) to the promotion. The Brazilian was originally slated to make his debut in 2021, but a pair of fight cancelations pushed it back to this April event. Referee James Larry Folsom will oversee the first match of the evening, and there is an apologetic glove touch offered by Arce and accepted. The first strike attempt comes from Santos, who comes up short with a high kick as Arce bats it away and flicks out a jab. Santos bears down on him with a standard Chute Boxe-style plodding approach, and Arce dips out of the way when Santos swings wide. A spinning strike gets pulled back from Santos when he finds it would not reach his intended target, and Arce stays on the outside with long single strikes. Arce interrupts Santos coming in, but the Brazilian wings a few hooks at him that partially connect. Arce’s jab continues to find its home as Santos’ strikes have more arc on them, and the New Yorker is able to slide out of the way before they reach him. When Santos punches his way into a clinch, he punishes Arce with a clean elbow. He pushes off, and then storms forward with an up-elbow in the vein of Anderson Silva. Arce wears it well and walks into a right hand, but he does not seem overly concerned as he uses his footwork to stay safe. Santos swings and misses with a spinning hook kick, and Arce’s strikes are still very fundamental and effective, with a jab and a two that comes after every so often. Another spinning kick from Santos misses the mark, and Arce tags him with a few more crisp punches. Santos is still throwing everything he has into his strikes, and Arce sees them coming and evades the brunt of most of them. Arce times his jab and a cross to follow as Santos cannot seem to figure it out, as the Brazilian still meanders forward recklessly while throwing haymakers. One jab is followed by a head kick, and Santos absorbs it without missing a beat. Santos lets go with a heavy leg kick, and Arce replies with a head kick that rings his bell. Knowing Santos is hurt but still dangerous, Arce picks and pokes away at his opponent until the round ends, rather than burning his gas tank searching for a finish with seconds to go.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 2
The fighters come out of their corners to touch gloves in the middle, and Arce resumes his accurate jabbing approach. Santos, on the other hand, is far more aggressively, jumping in the air with a knee and throwing bombs. Arce takes one on the chin that gives him pause, and he is able to dance out of the way when more come from Santos. Seeing Santos charging at him to wind up with a huge right hand, Arce changes levels at the right moment to trip Santos’ leg out beneath him. Arce does not follow him to the ground, and instead just appeared to want to give Santos something else to think about. Santos gets back to his feet and continues his constant forward motion while Arce slips and rips his strikes. Santos lands at the end of a right hand, and Arce escapes out the back door and dodges a spinning wheel kick. Arce is far more mobile of the two, circling on the outside and pawing away strikes that come at him. The Brazilian lands a kick to the body, and Arce returns fire with two to the midsection, with the second colliding with the hip as Arce withdraws his foot gingerly. Arce pushes out a jab as Santos walks him down, and he dings Santos with a head kick. Santos bites down on his gumshield and throws heavy leather, clipping Arce but not slowing him down. Instead, Arce smartly circles away and targets the body with his fists. Santos is the bus that couldn’t slow down, continuously ignoring the offense coming his way and taking practically every jab flush. Santos begins to telegraph his wide strikes, and Arce is able to manage this by planting a clean one-two on the jaw. “Willycat” pays it no mind, steps back and launches a high kick that comes up short. Santos kicks low, and that strike does land, but a head kick shortly thereafter is off-target. Arce scores a right hand, throws a push kick to the chest, and has his leg caught. Before Santos can do anything with it, the horn sounds.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce

Round 3
There is a final clap of hands to start off Round 3, and Arce gets on his bike early when Santos rushes at him with little defense. Santos gets popped on the chops from a couple sharp Arce punches, and he tries to let loose with a spinning kick that ends up colliding with the wall instead of his opponent. Arce blocks a body kick, and he paws out a handful of jabs as Santos looks for a superman punch. The heavier man is much sharper and practically landing at will, while Santos is all offense without landing much of note. Arce lands a jab and follows it with a left to the ribcage, and Santos grimaces and continues plodding ahead. Santos gives a half-hearted spinning high kick, and then changes things up with an Andy Hug-esque spinning kick to the thigh. Arce walks it off and peppers his foe with jabs and low kicks, doing well enough to keep Santos at bay or disturb him long enough to not get tagged by one of his power shots. Arce sticks him with a jab, slides out of the way from a swinging hook, and comes out with another jab. A double jab into a left hand stings Santos for a moment, but the Brazilian is not going to stop pressing forward. Even though he misses with a spinning back fist and a jumping switch kick, he does not lose heart, ever pushing forward and attacking. Arce can see most of these big shots coming and be out of harm’s way well in time, only to reset and put a jab in Santos’ face. A spinning back fist from Santos does not connect, but a kick to the midsection does push off of Arce’s liver. Arce replies with a head kick, not showing any concern with anything coming back at him. The jabs have begun to mark up Santos’ face, with swelling around the left eye. Throwing caution to the wind, Santos jumps forward with a rolling thunder kick, and Arce rocks him when Santos is on his knees after missing with the kick. Santos gets up, and he initiates a brawl that Arce obliges. They throw down right to the final bell, and this one is going to the scorecards but there shouldn’t be much doubt on who will get their hand raised.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Arce (30-27 Arce)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Arce (30-27 Arce)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Arce (30-27 Arce)

The Official Result
Julio Arce def. Daniel Gustavo Santos via Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 29-28)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 30, 2022 (10 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo picks Julio Arce but notes he likes Daniel Santos as a live underdog. He thinks Arce's wrestling can be key to slowing Santos' striking. He also likes a prop bet on Santos winning inside the distance with a safety net (refund if decision).

Daniel Santos wins inside the distance (decision no action) - safety net bet.
"juliars is the pick but i think what i'm going to do betting wise is daniel santos wins inside the distance but decision no action"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

Cody leans towards Santos as an underdog, citing the unknown factor and Santos' two-and-a-half-year layoff for improvement. He notes Santos' spinning techniques and aggression, and that Arce has been knocked out before. Cody thinks Santos could be a live dog and plans to play him in DFS due to low ownership.

"i think i am going to play this santos kid"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Lean picked Apr 8, 2022 (1 day before fight)
Daniel Santos

Daniel Levi acknowledges Julio Arce's experience and fundamental soundness but sees Arce as having peaked, while Santos is a young, improving fighter with aggression and wrestling defense. He is concerned about Santos's three-year layoff and first time under bright lights, but believes Santos at 27 is a better version than at 24. At plus money, he is willing to roll the dice on the upset.

"at a price like this i'm willing to roll the odds and take him here"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Apr 5, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Daniel Santos

I love the underdog price on Santos. He is wild, aggressive, and crashes the pocket, which is where Arce struggles. Arce has trouble when opponents engage with him in the pocket. Santos can land big shots and possibly get a knockout. I'm taking Santos to win, probably by KO.

"I love this underdog price tag that we're getting on Daniel Santos at plus 160... I'm gonna take Daniel Santos I'm gonna pick him to win this fight probably by KO."
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Apr 6, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul picks Arce but has a bad feeling about it. He notes Arce's skill set as a former golden glove boxer and BJJ black belt, but worries about his chin after being knocked out by Song. Paul thinks Santos is dangerous with spinning attacks but is hittable and lacks defense. He expects Arce to win on skill but acknowledges Santos could clip him.

"i'm going to take rj but i got a feeling that i might be paying for this one"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Apr 4, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The MMA Guru picks Julio Arce, citing his experience and veteran savvy. He expects Santos to start fast but fade, with Arce winning the second and third rounds. He predicts a 29-28 decision, noting that Arce is a high-level unranked bantamweight with good wins.

"i am going to be going with julio arse here in the opening fight of the card"
LOSS vs Song Yadong
TKO (head kick and punches) R2 1:35 · UFC Fight Night: Holloway vs. Rodriguez · Nov 13, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Song Yadong 1 30 of 80 37% 30 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Julio Arce 0 13 of 78 16% 13 of 78 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Song Yadong 0 17 of 52 32% 17 of 52 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 5 of 46 10% 5 of 46 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Song Yadong 1 13 of 28 46% 13 of 28 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Julio Arce 0 8 of 32 25% 8 of 32 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Song Yadong 30 of 80 37% 15 of 60 8 of 12 7 of 8 27 of 77 0 of 0 3 of 3
Julio Arce 13 of 78 16% 7 of 69 4 of 7 2 of 2 13 of 78 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Song Yadong 17 of 52 32% 6 of 37 6 of 9 5 of 6 17 of 52 0 of 0 0 of 0
Julio Arce 5 of 46 10% 3 of 42 2 of 4 0 of 0 5 of 46 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Song Yadong 13 of 28 46% 9 of 23 2 of 3 2 of 2 10 of 25 0 of 0 3 of 3
Julio Arce 8 of 32 25% 4 of 27 2 of 3 2 of 2 8 of 32 0 of 0 0 of 0
Play-by-Play
View on Sherdog
Julio Arce vs. Yadong Song

Round 1
Kicking off the main card is a fun bantamweight scrap between rising Chinese contender “Kung Fu Monkey” Song (17-5-1, 1 NC; 6-1-1 UFC) and Season 1 Contender Series signee Arce (17-4, 4-2 UFC). The fists and feet are sure to fly, and referee Herb Dean may have his hands full here. There is a sporting touch of gloves to check in the hostilities, and Song is the aggressor right out of the gate. The offense is minimal but Song is controlling the cage, forcing Arce to back off and drawing reactions from his feints. Suddenly, Song bursts forward with swinging punches, and Arce dances out of the way and eats a right hand. Song scores a low kick, and he evades a few jabs and walks in to one as he tries to attack. Song goes up high with a kick, and Arce slides out of the way and keeps looking for his range with his jab. Song swarms his man with punches, but Arce blocks and ducks out of the way in time to not absorb anything flush. Arce tries to counter with a head kick, and Song swats it out of the way. A striking stalemate ensues as neither man goes after anything of note, with Song occasionally throwing bombs that hit nothing but air. A quick melee ensues as they both throw caution to the wind briefly, but they back off to try to get to a calmer pace and range shortly after. Song charges forward with a right and a left, and the left hook gets Arce’s attention. Song plods forward, and they trade heavy body kicks. Arce finally gets the distance of his jab, and Song thanks him for this by booting him to the midsection with his instep. Song whiffs on a quick punch, and he chains it into a combination that does land. They both whip quick kicks at one another, with the strikes glancing off the guards. The accuracy may be low but the speed between these two bantamweights is high. Song chops down low with a kick, and the round ends with Song trying to throw leather.

Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Song
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Song
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Song

Round 2
The 135ers rush out of their corners to attack, and Arce slings a high kick in the early going that gets blocked. Arce turns a few punches into a heavy leg kick, and the kick makes Song stumble. Arce puts a bit of a pace of his foe, but he soon backs off when Song lands a flush kick to the midsection. Arce flicks out a few jabs and a leg kick that Song tries to defend but still absorbs cleanly. Song rings a right hand home, and Arce is soon to answer him.
A massive head kick from Song cracks Arce on the side of the head, and Arce is stunned and wobbles his way back to the cage wall while Song gives chase. Song does not let him off the hook, sensing that Arce is hurt badly, and he starts letting loose with a ferocious punch combination that smashes into Arce again and again. The fists continue to land for Song, who is unleashing a fury as he seeks a finish. Arce crumbles, and Dean tries to leap in and stop the fight but misses the mark.
This allows Song to keep on pounding on a defeated Arce, and Dean gathers himself to halt the fight once and for all. The contender out of China is now the first man to knock Arce out as a professional, and proves he is one to watch at 135 pounds.

The Official Result
Yadong Song def. Julio Arce R2 1:35 via TKO (Head Kick and Punches)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Angelo picks Song Yadong, citing his power and speed advantage. He acknowledges that Arce is more technical but thinks Song's volume and power will be frustrating. Angelo considers this a close fight and is surprised by the odds.

"i have song winning here but this is a close fight i this is another one i think the odds are wide"
BI
Big Brady Expert Lean picked Nov 9, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Big Brady slightly edges Song Yadong, citing his youth (23), power, and improvement at Team Alpha Male. He expects a striking fight with no takedowns, and while Arce is talented, Brady thinks Yadong will land the harder shots and win a close decision. He admits it's a very competitive fight and not confident.

Yadong by decision
"i'll take song yodong to get the win i'll take him to one by decision"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is concerned about Arce's lower volume compared to Yadong. He thinks Yadong throws a lot of strikes and Arce needs to stay at range. He calls it a close fight and a 'dog or pass' situation, but leans slightly to Arce.

"i think it's a close fight and i'll i'll side with you dogger pass situation"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Nov 11, 2021 (2 days before fight)
Song Yadong

Daniel Levi picks Song Yadong, emphasizing his power as one of the hardest hitters in the bantamweight division. He believes Song's impactful shots will sway the judges even if he lands slightly less than Arce. Levi notes that Arce has better defense but Song's forward pressure and power will be the deciding factor in a close fight. He also mentions Song's ability to get back up if taken down.

"give me a song to edge this one out slightly"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Jacob picks Julio Arce, liking his power and technical boxing. He thinks Arce can land big counters and possibly knock Song out. Jacob notes that Song gets hit and that Arce has the ability to steal rounds with grappling if needed.

"i like arson this just just for the power i think he's got a little bit more power than your dong"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Nov 10, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul likes Arce as a smooth operator who looked career-best after elbow surgery. He thinks Arce's kickboxing and BJJ are solid, and that Yadong slows down in fights. He calls it a 'dog or pass' situation and takes the underdog.

"give me that plus 10 plus 110 underdog in julia"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Hesitant picked Nov 13, 2021 (fight day)
Song Yadong

The Guru picks Song Yadong by split decision (29-28). He expects a close fight with Yadong's power and speed giving him an edge early, but Arce coming on in the third round. Yadong will win rounds one and two, with Arce taking the third, but Yadong gets the nod on two scorecards.

split decision 29-28
"i'm calling a split decision because listen i know people call me out for like oh you always pick a split decision"
WIN vs Andre Ewell
TKO (punches) R2 3:45 · UFC on ESPN: Sandhagen vs. Dillashaw · Jul 24, 2021
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 0 42 of 113 37% 44 of 115 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Andre Ewell 0 31 of 97 31% 31 of 98 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 18 of 53 33% 20 of 55 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:24
Andre Ewell 0 13 of 50 26% 13 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
2 Julio Arce 0 24 of 60 40% 24 of 60 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Andre Ewell 0 18 of 47 38% 18 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 42 of 113 37% 27 of 88 6 of 15 9 of 10 42 of 113 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Ewell 31 of 97 31% 10 of 63 10 of 18 11 of 16 31 of 97 0 of 0 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 18 of 53 33% 12 of 42 1 of 6 5 of 5 18 of 53 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Ewell 13 of 50 26% 5 of 36 4 of 6 4 of 8 13 of 50 0 of 0 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 24 of 60 40% 15 of 46 5 of 9 4 of 5 24 of 60 0 of 0 0 of 0
Andre Ewell 18 of 47 38% 5 of 27 6 of 12 7 of 8 18 of 47 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo picks Julio Arce because he is a high-volume striker with good striking defense and movement, and he mixes his boxing and kicks well. He notes that Andre Ewell has cardio issues due to his size and can't grapple. He expects Arce to win by decision after a potential slow first round due to his two-year layoff. He likes the 3.5 round prop on Ewell (buying a round) because Ewell might win the first round when fresh, then fade. He also likes the more/more on monkey knife fight.

Andre Ewell 3.5 round prop (buy a round on judge's scorecard); more/more on monkey knife fight
"i think he can take the first round when he's fresh and he's long and the range is trying to get figured out"
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 20, 2021 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Big Brady picks Julio Arce by decision, noting Arce's superior competition and cardio advantage. He expects the fight to be competitive early but Arce will take over in the third round as Ewell slows down. He highlights Arce's positive striking differential and Ewell's tendency to fade. He thinks the line (-190) is a bit wide but still favors Arce.

"i'm gonna say rsa does win a pretty uh close decision in this fight"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody picks Arce, citing his slick boxing and good grappling. He thinks the move down to 135 is good for him. He notes Arce has been off due to surgeries but expects him to land the more impactful strikes. He likes Arce's chances as long as the weight cut works out.

"give me the guy landing the more impactful strikes"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Andre Ewell

Daniel Levi picks Andre Ewell as a plus-180 dog, believing the line is off. He notes that Ewell is long for the weight class with a 75-inch reach, and that Arce tends to fight close. Levi expects a three-round stand-up war with both having moments, and predicts Ewell via split decision. He acknowledges Arce's better technical skills but thinks Ewell can make it close.

"i'm going to go with andre via split decision"
JA
Jacob Lines Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Jacob picks Julio Arce because he is a Golden Gloves boxing champion coming down to bantamweight, so Andre Ewell won't have the usual size advantage. He notes that Arce has never been KO'd and has good head movement. He thinks Arce will have no issues with Ewell and has him in his DraftKings lineup.

"julio is actually coming down in weight he's he's had that layoff but he's actually coming he's usually a featherweight guy coming down to bantamweight so andre won't be as big as he normally is"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jul 23, 2021 (1 day before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce, noting his striking and grappling advantage, as well as his cardio edge. He expects Arce to pressure Ewell, who tends to fade in later rounds. He mentions Arce's layoff and ring rust concerns but believes his overall skills will prevail. He likes Arce by decision at +125 and also mentions a potential round three finish.

Arce by decision +125; Arce round three +1375 (sprinkle)
"i do like rsa rc by decision plus 125. that's going to be the side that i'm leaning with"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Jul 21, 2021 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul also picks Arce, noting his superior boxing, southpaw stance, and overall skills. He warns about Ewell's reach and tendency to make fights close, but thinks Arce's wrestling and jiu-jitsu give him an edge. He is concerned about the layoff and surgeries but still picks Arce.

"i'm going to hit this one minus one on the julio rj and hope he brings it on home for me"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 18, 2021 (6 days before fight)
Andre Ewell

The Guru picks Ewell as an underdog, noting Arce's lack of leg kicks, which he suspects is due to shin issues. He believes Ewell's reach and range will be decisive, as Arce has no way to close distance or chop the legs. He predicts a unanimous decision win for Ewell, keeping the fight at range.

"i'm going with andre you're as an underdog here"
LOSS vs Hakeem Dawodu
Decision (split) (29–28, 28–29, 29–28) R3 5:00 · UFC 244: Masvidal vs. Diaz · Nov 02, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Hakeem Dawodu 0 32 of 124 25% 64 of 162 1 of 3 33% 0 0 0:56
Julio Arce 0 55 of 139 39% 83 of 170 0 of 0 --- 0 1 3:39
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Hakeem Dawodu 0 6 of 31 19% 12 of 39 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 13 of 39 33% 26 of 53 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:51
2 Hakeem Dawodu 0 9 of 42 21% 20 of 54 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:43
Julio Arce 0 14 of 37 37% 23 of 47 0 of 0 --- 0 1 1:25
3 Hakeem Dawodu 0 17 of 51 33% 32 of 69 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:13
Julio Arce 0 28 of 63 44% 34 of 70 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:23
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Hakeem Dawodu 32 of 124 25% 21 of 101 11 of 22 0 of 1 28 of 116 4 of 8 0 of 0
Julio Arce 55 of 139 39% 15 of 79 25 of 42 15 of 18 40 of 121 11 of 14 4 of 4
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Hakeem Dawodu 6 of 31 19% 3 of 25 3 of 6 0 of 0 5 of 30 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julio Arce 13 of 39 33% 2 of 17 6 of 14 5 of 8 11 of 37 2 of 2 0 of 0
2 Hakeem Dawodu 9 of 42 21% 6 of 35 3 of 7 0 of 0 8 of 38 1 of 4 0 of 0
Julio Arce 14 of 37 37% 4 of 23 3 of 7 7 of 7 9 of 32 1 of 1 4 of 4
3 Hakeem Dawodu 17 of 51 33% 12 of 41 5 of 9 0 of 1 15 of 48 2 of 3 0 of 0
Julio Arce 28 of 63 44% 9 of 39 16 of 21 3 of 3 20 of 52 8 of 11 0 of 0
WIN vs Julian Erosa
KO (head kick) R3 1:49 · UFC Fight Night: dos Anjos vs. Lee · May 18, 2019
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 1 74 of 160 46% 74 of 160 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:13
Julian Erosa 0 43 of 160 26% 46 of 164 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 14 of 43 32% 14 of 43 1 of 1 100% 0 0 0:07
Julian Erosa 0 12 of 49 24% 14 of 51 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:11
2 Julio Arce 0 34 of 72 47% 34 of 72 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Julian Erosa 0 21 of 74 28% 22 of 76 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:22
3 Julio Arce 1 26 of 45 57% 26 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Julian Erosa 0 10 of 37 27% 10 of 37 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 74 of 160 46% 61 of 142 12 of 17 1 of 1 71 of 155 2 of 4 1 of 1
Julian Erosa 43 of 160 26% 23 of 129 15 of 24 5 of 7 39 of 151 4 of 9 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 14 of 43 32% 14 of 41 0 of 2 0 of 0 14 of 42 0 of 1 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 12 of 49 24% 4 of 35 6 of 11 2 of 3 11 of 46 1 of 3 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 34 of 72 47% 25 of 62 8 of 9 1 of 1 32 of 69 2 of 3 0 of 0
Julian Erosa 21 of 74 28% 11 of 61 8 of 10 2 of 3 18 of 68 3 of 6 0 of 0
3 Julio Arce 26 of 45 57% 22 of 39 4 of 6 0 of 0 25 of 44 0 of 0 1 of 1
Julian Erosa 10 of 37 27% 8 of 33 1 of 3 1 of 1 10 of 37 0 of 0 0 of 0
LOSS vs Sheymon Moraes
Decision (split) (28–29, 29–28, 30–26) R3 5:00 · UFC 230: Cormier vs. Lewis · Nov 03, 2018
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Sheymon Moraes 0 25 of 119 21% 46 of 145 1 of 5 20% 2 0 4:10
Julio Arce 2 32 of 102 31% 35 of 105 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:36
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Sheymon Moraes 0 2 of 12 16% 22 of 37 0 of 3 0% 2 0 3:21
Julio Arce 1 7 of 17 41% 8 of 18 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:42
2 Sheymon Moraes 0 5 of 35 14% 5 of 35 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:49
Julio Arce 1 13 of 43 30% 15 of 45 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:53
3 Sheymon Moraes 0 18 of 72 25% 19 of 73 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:00
Julio Arce 0 12 of 42 28% 12 of 42 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:01
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Sheymon Moraes 25 of 119 21% 16 of 97 9 of 21 0 of 1 23 of 114 2 of 5 0 of 0
Julio Arce 32 of 102 31% 22 of 83 9 of 18 1 of 1 16 of 69 9 of 13 7 of 20
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Sheymon Moraes 2 of 12 16% 2 of 12 0 of 0 0 of 0 1 of 11 1 of 1 0 of 0
Julio Arce 7 of 17 41% 6 of 16 1 of 1 0 of 0 1 of 2 1 of 1 5 of 14
2 Sheymon Moraes 5 of 35 14% 3 of 29 2 of 5 0 of 1 5 of 33 0 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 13 of 43 30% 9 of 33 3 of 9 1 of 1 8 of 32 3 of 5 2 of 6
3 Sheymon Moraes 18 of 72 25% 11 of 56 7 of 16 0 of 0 17 of 70 1 of 2 0 of 0
Julio Arce 12 of 42 28% 7 of 34 5 of 8 0 of 0 7 of 35 5 of 7 0 of 0
Herbert Burns - Fight History
LOSS vs Jack Jenkins
TKO (retirement) R3 0:48 · UFC 305: du Plessis vs. Adesanya · Aug 18, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Jack Jenkins 2 73 of 126 57% 98 of 152 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:44
Herbert Burns 0 24 of 79 30% 45 of 101 2 of 9 22% 0 0 1:54
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Jack Jenkins 0 39 of 66 59% 53 of 80 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:03
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 53 28% 28 of 66 1 of 2 50% 0 0 1:09
2 Jack Jenkins 1 20 of 38 52% 31 of 50 0 of 0 --- 0 0 2:15
Herbert Burns 0 6 of 23 26% 14 of 32 1 of 6 16% 0 0 0:45
3 Jack Jenkins 1 14 of 22 63% 14 of 22 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:26
Herbert Burns 0 3 of 3 100% 3 of 3 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Jack Jenkins 73 of 126 57% 44 of 95 15 of 15 14 of 16 59 of 99 0 of 1 14 of 26
Herbert Burns 24 of 79 30% 11 of 61 7 of 10 6 of 8 21 of 73 3 of 4 0 of 2
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Jack Jenkins 39 of 66 59% 24 of 51 11 of 11 4 of 4 39 of 65 0 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 53 28% 8 of 43 4 of 6 3 of 4 14 of 51 1 of 2 0 of 0
2 Jack Jenkins 20 of 38 52% 8 of 24 3 of 3 9 of 11 14 of 26 0 of 0 6 of 12
Herbert Burns 6 of 23 26% 2 of 17 2 of 3 2 of 3 5 of 20 1 of 1 0 of 2
3 Jack Jenkins 14 of 22 63% 12 of 20 1 of 1 1 of 1 6 of 8 0 of 0 8 of 14
Herbert Burns 3 of 3 100% 1 of 1 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 2 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Aug 11, 2024 (7 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Angelo is confident Jack Jenkins will win, citing his superior striking, takedown defense, and multiple ways to win. He dismisses Herbert Burns as a submission-or-bust fighter with poor offensive wrestling who seems to hate fighting. Angelo expects Jenkins to light Burns up on the feet and suggests parlaying him before the odds get even shorter.

Suggests parlaying Jenkins before odds get crazy
"Jack Jenkins is going to be safe here he's going to light up Herbert Burns and you should probably parlay him before those odds get crazy."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Big Brady picks Jack Jenkins to win by second-round knockout. He notes Herbert Burns is very dangerous in the first five minutes but has poor cardio, heart, and durability, and has been knocked out in the second round in his last three losses. He believes Jenkins can survive the first round, possibly in bad spots, and then finish Burns in the second. He cautions that Jenkins has been finished in all three of his losses, so Burns has a five-minute window to submit him, but overall he expects Jenkins to get the knockout.

knockout in round 2
"give me Jack Jenkins and give me Jack Jenkins by second round knockout"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Cody is confident Jenkins will win but notes the price is blown out. He expects Jenkins to survive the first round and then take over as Burns gasses. He mentions Jenkins' leg kicks and cardio as advantages, but warns that Burns has a puncher's chance early. Cody suggests live betting Jenkins after the first round.

"I will take jenin"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Confident picked Aug 15, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Daniel Vreeland picks Jack Jenkins to win by late finish, likely in round two or three. He notes that Jenkins is a systematic leg kicker who will chop Burns down, while Burns gasses and has been finished repeatedly. Vreeland suggests playing Jenkins round two as a hedge against the under 1.5 rounds.

round 2 finish
"I think he's going to get a round two finish Herbert's been finished in round two like 10 times in a row or something crazy like that"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The host picks Jenkins, noting his solid striking and mixing of martial arts. He expects Jenkins to avoid Burns' early power and then put a pace on him, finishing him likely by knockout. He mentions the under 1.5 rounds prop as a potential bet, and notes Jenkins' round 2 prop at +550.

Under 1.5 rounds, Jenkins round 2 prop (+550)
"I'm going to go Jenkins I think Jenkins finishes Burns maybe knocks him out"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

Paul acknowledges Jenkins is not a potent finisher but believes he will outlast Burns, who has terrible cardio. He notes that Burns has been submitted in his last two and that Jenkins has never been knocked out. Paul calls it a cop-out but picks Jenkins, though he is priced out of betting.

"it's Jack Jenkins but at minus 800 I don't I'm not entirely sure what to do with it"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Jack Jenkins

The MMA Guru picks Jack Jenkins over Herbert Burns. He criticizes Burns as a quitter with only one round of cardio, comparing him to Makwan Amirkhani. He praises Jenkins' takedown defense, noting his strong hips and foot positioning. He predicts Burns will have early moments but gas out and get finished in the second or third round, possibly by TKO. He also mentions body kicks on the ground as a potential finish.

Late first or second round TKO
"I'm going to go Jack Jenkins he actually was doing pretty well against the grappling of sheet marisca early in their fight showed some good Australian takedown defense"
LOSS vs Julio Arce
TKO (punches) R2 2:00 · UFC on ESPN: Blanchfield vs. Fiorot · Mar 30, 2024
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Julio Arce 2 29 of 79 36% 29 of 79 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:08
Herbert Burns 0 15 of 57 26% 20 of 63 0 of 6 0% 0 0 1:16
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Julio Arce 0 10 of 38 26% 10 of 38 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:06
Herbert Burns 0 11 of 37 29% 16 of 43 0 of 5 0% 0 0 0:50
2 Julio Arce 2 19 of 41 46% 19 of 41 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:02
Herbert Burns 0 4 of 20 20% 4 of 20 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:26
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Julio Arce 29 of 79 36% 19 of 65 9 of 12 1 of 2 20 of 68 9 of 11 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 15 of 57 26% 9 of 45 5 of 10 1 of 2 13 of 55 2 of 2 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Julio Arce 10 of 38 26% 5 of 31 5 of 7 0 of 0 9 of 37 1 of 1 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 11 of 37 29% 7 of 29 3 of 6 1 of 2 10 of 36 1 of 1 0 of 0
2 Julio Arce 19 of 41 46% 14 of 34 4 of 5 1 of 2 11 of 31 8 of 10 0 of 0
Herbert Burns 4 of 20 20% 2 of 16 2 of 4 0 of 0 3 of 19 1 of 1 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

"Julio rce should win this fight if Julio wasn't coming off his own very long layoff I actually would consider him for the safety parlay but at minus 550 with a full year away I'm just going to enjoy whatever …"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

"I can never bet Herbert Birds just can't do it but I will admit at minus 400"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

"the pick is Julio but this is a doger pass situation at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Arce round 3
"I'm going to go RSA RSA round three give him a little time to really get into his Groove and then from there get burns out of there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

"I can see why Julio Arch would be the favorite but at minus 400 is there any meat on the bone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce to survive an early storm from Herbert Burns and then take over. He believes Burns will go for a takedown early, but Arce will work his way out. Once things don't go Burns' way, he expects Burns to break and fade. He predicts a late second-round TKO for Arce.

late second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Julio late second round TKO"
LOSS vs Bill Algeo
TKO (retirement) R2 1:50 · UFC on ABC: Ortega vs. Rodriguez · Jul 16, 2022
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Bill Algeo 0 28 of 36 77% 81 of 104 1 of 1 100% 0 0 5:26
Herbert Burns 0 10 of 12 83% 18 of 25 1 of 2 50% 2 0 0:32
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Bill Algeo 0 24 of 30 80% 65 of 84 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:01
Herbert Burns 0 10 of 12 83% 18 of 25 1 of 1 100% 2 0 0:32
2 Bill Algeo 0 4 of 6 66% 16 of 20 0 of 0 --- 0 0 1:25
Herbert Burns 0 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 1 0% 0 0 0:00
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Bill Algeo 28 of 36 77% 21 of 28 6 of 7 1 of 1 2 of 4 2 of 2 24 of 30
Herbert Burns 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 8
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Bill Algeo 24 of 30 80% 19 of 25 4 of 4 1 of 1 1 of 2 2 of 2 21 of 26
Herbert Burns 10 of 12 83% 6 of 8 4 of 4 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 3 6 of 8
2 Bill Algeo 4 of 6 66% 2 of 3 2 of 3 0 of 0 1 of 2 0 of 0 3 of 4
Herbert Burns 0 of 0 --- 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0 0 of 0
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Jul 10, 2022 (6 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Angelo picks Bill Algeo confidently, citing Algeo's pressure, wrestling defense, and BJJ black belt to neutralize Burns' grappling. He notes Burns' two-year layoff and Algeo's impressive win over Joe Anderson Brito. He has a moneyline bet on Algeo at -160.

moneyline bet at -160
"algio's the pick i'm glad the ufc was able to keep these guys on the card and i do have a money line bet on bill algio and i got that at minus 160."
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Jul 12, 2022 (4 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Big Brady picks Bill Algeo to win by decision. He notes that Algeo has poor takedown defense but an elite get-up game and a black belt in BJJ, making him hard to hold down. He thinks Burns's cardio will fade after the first round, allowing Algeo to take over on the feet. He mentions a late finish is possible if Burns gasses.

"i'm going to go with bill algier to win by decision here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Cody picks Algeo but dislikes the -205 price. He argues that Burns has a terrible gas tank and will fade after the first round, while Algeo has high output and good submission defense. He expects Algeo to survive early takedowns and then overwhelm Burns in later rounds.

Herbert Burns over 1.5 takedowns
"bill jo's a minus 205 price tag we're going to pick them but we don't like it"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert picked Jul 14, 2022 (2 days before fight)

Daniel Levi does not make a clear pick, viewing it as a dog-or-pass situation. He notes Algeo's takedown defense issues and Burns's submission threat, but also Burns's cardio and weight cut concerns. He sees Algeo winning the later rounds if he survives, but the -200 price on Algeo is too high for his liking.

dog-or-pass; not laying the chalk
"i definitely think algio wins the third round i definitely think herbert wins the first round possibly gets a finish who's going to win that second round so i see this as a dogger pass situation"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Jul 13, 2022 (3 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

Paul also picks Algeo but is not confident, noting that Algeo's takedown defense is poor and Burns is physically strong. He believes Burns will take Algeo down early, but Algeo's BJJ black belt and cardio should allow him to survive and win later rounds. He suggests live betting Algeo after the first round.

Herbert Burns over 1.5 takedowns
"i'll lean towards bill ljo but yeah i'm not touching the minus 205"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jul 11, 2022 (5 days before fight)
Bill Algeo

The MMA Guru picks Bill Algeo over Herbert Burns, noting Burns' tendency to fade after the second round and Algeo's durability. He mentions Algeo's solid chin and ability to take big shots, as seen in fights against Joe Anderson Brito and Spike Carlyle. He predicts Algeo will survive early rounds and dominate later, winning by decision (29-28 or 29-27).

predicts decision win
"i'm going to call her bill aljo decision win 29-28 winning the end of the second round hard and winning the round because of it and then dominating the third round"
LOSS vs Daniel Pineda
TKO (elbows) R2 4:37 · UFC 252: Miocic vs. Cormier 3 · Aug 15, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Daniel Pineda 0 10 of 22 45% 35 of 48 3 of 4 75% 0 0 2:39
Herbert Burns 0 57 of 75 76% 173 of 205 1 of 2 50% 0 1 6:13
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Daniel Pineda 0 4 of 13 30% 21 of 31 1 of 2 50% 0 0 0:12
Herbert Burns 0 24 of 40 60% 87 of 111 1 of 1 100% 0 0 4:18
2 Daniel Pineda 0 6 of 9 66% 14 of 17 2 of 2 100% 0 0 2:27
Herbert Burns 0 33 of 35 94% 86 of 94 0 of 1 0% 0 1 1:55
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Daniel Pineda 10 of 22 45% 6 of 15 2 of 5 2 of 2 5 of 15 1 of 2 4 of 5
Herbert Burns 57 of 75 76% 50 of 65 4 of 7 3 of 3 8 of 13 1 of 1 48 of 61
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Daniel Pineda 4 of 13 30% 1 of 7 2 of 5 1 of 1 2 of 10 1 of 2 1 of 1
Herbert Burns 24 of 40 60% 19 of 32 3 of 6 2 of 2 6 of 10 1 of 1 17 of 29
2 Daniel Pineda 6 of 9 66% 5 of 8 0 of 0 1 of 1 3 of 5 0 of 0 3 of 4
Herbert Burns 33 of 35 94% 31 of 33 1 of 1 1 of 1 2 of 3 0 of 0 31 of 32
BI
Big Brady Expert Confident picked Aug 12, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Big Brady is impressed with Herbert Burns' improvements and superior grappling. He expects Burns to submit Pineda in the first round, noting Pineda has been submitted five times. He thinks the fight won't go to decision.

first round submission, under on total rounds
"give me herbert burns first round submission"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Aug 14, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel Levi picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission. He notes that Pineda has never been to a decision (0-6 in decisions) and has been submitted six times. He believes Pineda's scrambling style is a bad matchup against Burns' elite jiu-jitsu. He also points out that Pineda's recent wins were overturned due to PEDs, and he may be deflated under USADA testing. He cites Burns' performance against Dunham as evidence of his submission prowess.

Burns by first-round submission; fight doesn't go the distance (-390); Pineda's PED history is a concern
"i'm going herbert burns here via first round submission again"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Aug 13, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Daniel Pineda

Pineda is a live dog with strong wrestling and top pressure; he has not been submitted since 2010 and has the experience to survive Burns' early submission threats. Burns' recent finishes are against over-the-hill competition, while Pineda is still in his prime. The line is too wide; Pineda should be closer to +120. He will play it safe, rack up rounds, and win a decision.

Pineda wins by decision (+680)
"Pineda should not be a plus 240 or plus 250 underdog... I think he's a definitely a live dog here."
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Aug 9, 2020 (6 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns by submission in the first round, calling it the surest win on the card. He highlights Burns' knockout of Nate Landwehr with a knee up the middle as evidence of his finishing ability, and dismisses Pineda as a past-prime cheater.

submission in the first round
"i'm going with herbert burns i think he gets it done by submission in the first round"
WIN vs Evan Dunham
Submission (rear-naked choke) R1 1:20 · UFC 250: Nunes vs. Spencer · Jun 06, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Herbert Burns 0 3 of 6 50% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Evan Dunham 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:38
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Herbert Burns 0 3 of 6 50% 4 of 7 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:05
Evan Dunham 0 5 of 10 50% 8 of 13 1 of 1 100% 1 0 0:38
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Herbert Burns 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
Evan Dunham 5 of 10 50% 4 of 6 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Herbert Burns 3 of 6 50% 2 of 5 1 of 1 0 of 0 2 of 4 1 of 2 0 of 0
Evan Dunham 5 of 10 50% 4 of 6 1 of 3 0 of 1 4 of 8 0 of 1 1 of 1
BI
Big Brady Expert Hesitant picked Jun 3, 2020 (3 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Big Brady picks Herbert Burns but is hesitant due to Evan Dunham's layoff and age. He notes Dunham has good striking and BJJ, but the two-year layoff and recent losses make it hard to pick him. He expects a close fight with Burns winning by decision, possibly hurting Dunham to the body.

Burns by decision; Dunham at +190 has value but hard to trust
"there's no way I can pick haven't done him you know if this was an Evan Dunn was prime probably takes Dunham all day here but just with you know coming off of a tear lay off just getting 30 …"
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel believes Burns has caught up to where he can beat a veteran like Dunham. He highlights Burns' wrestling entries, ten-year black belt in jiu-jitsu, and developing power in his striking. He notes Dunham retired for a reason and has shown vulnerability to body shots. He predicts Burns will finish Dunham, possibly by submission or body shots.

finish
"I think Saturday night he's gonna finish Evan Dunham"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Jun 4, 2020 (2 days before fight)
Evan Dunham

Evan Dunham is a high-level jiu-jitsu player with great takedown defense and refined striking. He should be able to keep the fight on the feet and pick apart Herbert Burns, who is wild and chaotic. Dunham's hands have looked good, and he can put together combinations ending with kicks. Even if the fight goes to the ground, Dunham is safe due to his own jiu-jitsu. The only concern is the layoff, but at plus money he is a steal.

Evan Dunham by decision; bet 1-1.5 units
"plus 190 plus 200 for evan dunham is is a steal in my opinion if i get that plus 200 um on one of my sites i'm definitely going to pull the trigger probably one to 1.5 units"
WIN vs Nate Landwehr
KO (knee) R1 2:43 · UFC Fight Night: Blaydes vs. dos Santos · Jan 25, 2020
Totals
FighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
Herbert Burns 1 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Nate Landwehr 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Per Round
RdFighterKDSig. Str.Sig. Str. % Total Str.TDTD % Sub. AttRev.Ctrl
1 Herbert Burns 1 7 of 17 41% 7 of 17 1 of 1 100% 1 0 1:34
Nate Landwehr 0 4 of 9 44% 6 of 11 0 of 0 --- 0 0 0:33
Significant Strikes
FighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
Herbert Burns 7 of 17 41% 2 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 2
Nate Landwehr 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
Significant Strikes Per Round
RdFighterSig. Str.Sig. Str. % HeadBodyLeg DistanceClinchGround
1 Herbert Burns 7 of 17 41% 2 of 10 5 of 7 0 of 0 4 of 12 3 of 3 0 of 2
Nate Landwehr 4 of 9 44% 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0 3 of 8 1 of 1 0 of 0
DA
Daniel Levi Expert Confident picked Jan 24, 2020 (1 day before fight)
Herbert Burns

Daniel picks Herbert Burns to win by first-round submission, citing his significant advantage on the mat as a BJJ black belt. He notes that Landwehr has been taken down and dropped multiple times in his fights and may not survive Burns' submission attempts. He believes Burns will take him down and finish quickly.

first round submission
"I'm gonna go with herbart burns via first round submission"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Jan 20, 2020 (5 days before fight)
Herbert Burns

The MMA Guru picks Herbert Burns based on his denser record of better names and wins, including a notable win over Timothy in ONE FC. He views Burns as a big featherweight to look out for in his debut, while noting Nate Landwehr's record lacks recognizable names.

"I'm gonna go with the Herbert burns I think he has a bit more of a dense record of better names and wins"
Expert Picks (6)
AN
Angelo Bodetti Expert Confident picked Mar 24, 2024 (6 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Angelo is confident Julio Arce will win, citing his solid striking, volume, and 94% takedown defense. He criticizes Herbert Burns for quitting in his last fight and doubts Burns can get takedowns. However, he avoids betting due to Arce's long layoff and steep -550 price.

"Julio rce should win this fight if Julio wasn't coming off his own very long layoff I actually would consider him for the safety parlay but at minus 550 with a full year away I'm just going to enjoy whatever nonsense happens here"
CO
Cody Saftic Expert Hesitant picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Cody is wary of Arce's layoff, weight class move, and injuries, but still picks him because Burns is unreliable and quits when his early submission doesn't work. He thinks Arce's volume and durability will carry him, but the -400 price is unappealing.

"I can never bet Herbert Birds just can't do it but I will admit at minus 400"
DA
Daniel Vreeland Expert Hesitant picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Daniel Vreeland picks Julio Arce but calls it a dog-or-pass situation at -400. He acknowledges Arce's solid striking and takedown defense but notes Burns' elite jiu-jitsu and motivation. He thinks Burns could get an early submission if Arce makes a mistake, but Arce is the safer pick. He won't lay the price.

"the pick is Julio but this is a doger pass situation at these odds"
MM
MMA Lock of the Night Expert Confident picked Mar 26, 2024 (4 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Arce is a talented Muay Thai striker with head kicks and combinations. Burns has a terrible gas tank and fades if he doesn't finish early. Arce should stay at distance, land pot shots, and work the body. Burns will present early danger but Arce will take over in the second and third rounds, finishing via TKO. Prediction: Arce round 3.

Arce round 3
"I'm going to go RSA RSA round three give him a little time to really get into his Groove and then from there get burns out of there"
PA
Paul Shaughnessy Expert Lean picked Mar 28, 2024 (2 days before fight)
Julio Arce

Paul agrees with Cody's assessment, noting Burns' history of quitting and Arce's potential advantages. He doesn't love the price but sees Arce as the likely winner.

"I can see why Julio Arch would be the favorite but at minus 400 is there any meat on the bone"
TH
The MMA Guru Expert Confident picked Mar 27, 2024 (3 days before fight)
Julio Arce

The host picks Julio Arce to survive an early storm from Herbert Burns and then take over. He believes Burns will go for a takedown early, but Arce will work his way out. Once things don't go Burns' way, he expects Burns to break and fade. He predicts a late second-round TKO for Arce.

late second round TKO
"I'm going to go with Julio late second round TKO"