Career Averages - José Aldo
Career Averages - Rob Font
José Aldo
Rob Font
José Aldo - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 1 | 68 of 167 | 40% | 71 of 170 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 99 of 199 | 49% | 109 of 209 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 23 of 59 | 38% | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 21 of 46 | 45% | 21 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 72 | 34% | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 26 of 66 | 39% | 26 of 66 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 1 | 20 of 36 | 55% | 23 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:02 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 0 | 52 of 87 | 59% | 62 of 97 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 68 of 167 | 40% | 48 of 135 | 13 of 25 | 7 of 7 | 67 of 166 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 99 of 199 | 49% | 79 of 167 | 14 of 22 | 6 of 10 | 66 of 151 | 8 of 11 | 25 of 37 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 23 of 59 | 38% | 12 of 42 | 6 of 12 | 5 of 5 | 23 of 59 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 21 of 46 | 45% | 15 of 39 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 18 of 43 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 25 of 72 | 34% | 17 of 62 | 6 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 25 of 72 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 26 of 66 | 39% | 19 of 50 | 3 of 8 | 4 of 8 | 25 of 64 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 20 of 36 | 55% | 19 of 31 | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 35 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 |
| Aiemann Zahabi | 52 of 87 | 59% | 45 of 78 | 7 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 44 | 4 of 6 | 25 of 37 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Aldo (-218), Zahabi (+180)
Round 1
A day and a half ago, the “featured fight of the night” slot was booked as a bantamweight affair. Elder statesman and beloved champ Aldo (32-9, 14-8 UFC) could not get close to 136 pounds, so he and Zahabi (12-2, 6-2 UFC) agreed to bump it up to featherweight to keep it together due to strange Canadian weight regulations. In what could be a passing of the torch match—this could be said about the last five fights or so for the ex-WEC champ—referee Dan Miragliotta will be installed as the cage commander. The two relieved fighters who did not have to cut nearly as much weight as they expected bump fists to get the fight started. Aldo marches forward, guard high, and Zahabi circles all the way around him. Aldo keeps following his foe, neither man throwing a strike of merit for the first 50 seconds. Aldo finally lands a jab, but it is just one jab. Zahabi jabs him back, and Aldo responds with a speedy head kick that bounces into his foe’s armpit. Zahabi jumps in and out to strike, and Aldo lets go with a body kick and two hooks. Aldo cracks the Canadian with a right hand, sending Zahabi back in a hurry. He lands another right hand, and lifts up a knee to counter something that does not get to him. Zahabi gets off two punches, and Aldo does not even register them and loads up a right hand that bangs into the Canadian’s head. Zahabi reaches his foe with a body kick, and Aldo continues marching forward without fear. Aldo lifts his knee up to block a high kick, and he jabs with the ball of his foot extended. Aldo rips the body with two punches, and Zahabi’s guard lower as he frowns. Aldo doubles up on a jab to strike with a right hand, and he gets countered and sways to avoid the worst of them. Aldo counters Zahabi coming in with a hook, and he jabs the body when he notices Zahabi is not retaliating. Aldo scores a mighty low kick, and Zahabi walks towards him to score a pair of punches. Zahabi flashes a grin, and he splits the guard with a few jabs and a couple right hands. Aldo leans back and dodges several punches, and he engages with power offense of his own. Aldo uses a power jab to set up further punches, and he no-sells a left hook and fires one back. Aldo goes to the body, and Zahabi counters with a front kick and a punch. Aldo cracks him with a left hand, and the horn blares.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 2
Zahabi starts off the round in a flurry, crashing the pocket and kneeing the former champ flush in the chest. Aldo forces him to settle down with a front kick to the midsection. Aldo flicks out a quick jab, and he sneaks in a low kick before Zahabi can get to him. Aldo checks a kick and swings for the fences, but the Canadian is able to escape them. Aldo checks a leg kick and snaps out his jab, intercepting his advancing opponent every time. Zahabi walks through a few to try to strike, and Aldo goes to the body and head. When Zahabi strikes back, Aldo is nowhere to be found. Aldo pounds the body with a right hand, and he takes a left hook on the forehead so he can rifle off a big hook of his own. Aldo slips a punch and has one scrape off his forehead, and they jab one another up. The former beltholder plays the matador, absorbing a single left hand and landing his own. Zahabi’s foot rises up in a combination, and his foot strikes the groin. He immediately apologizes, and Aldo knows it was totally by accident. They restart in a few seconds, with Zahabi cut on the side of his right eye. Aldo lets him come at him so he can counter, and he ducks a leaping left hand to sneak away. Zahabi kicks him square in the groin, and this time, Aldo is a little more irritated and takes some time, while saying “that’s two” to Miragliotta. Time is called, and Aldo is perturbed but they tap gloves to get going after 15 seconds and push ahead. Zahabi aims a kick much lower to avoid the groin, and he has another get checked. Aldo whips a body shot at him and looks to dodge a jab. Zahabi clips the former beltholder with a left hand, and Aldo pushes off with a front kick and a few jabs. Zahabi dings him with another left, and Aldo shakes his head. Aldo leaps in the air, landing a flying knee to the body at the bell.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 3
The fighters hug it out as the last round begins. Zahabi reintroduces himself with a one-two, beating Aldo to the punch with a few strikes until Aldo revs up his own engine and stinging the Canadian. Aldo lets Zahabi fly past him, but when Zahabi resets, Zahabi lands three punches down the middle. Aldo shakes his head and drives a knee into his chest. Two body shots from the Brazilian land cleanly, and he ducks down and takes a left hand over the top along with a knee to the body. Aldo surges into action, hurting Zahabi with a knee, a right hand and a head kick that send him flying. Aldo punches his foe and drills Zahabi with a legal soccer kick, and Zahabi is all over the place and barely with it. Aldo chases after him and blasts him with another soccer kick, and Zahabi flops to his back and survives it. Miraculously, Zahabi is still in the fight, and he manages to stand back in front of Aldo, who is looking hard at the clock. The Brazilian is totally spent trying to force the finish, and suddenly momentum has shifted again. Zahabi pours it on, and he marches Aldo down and starts hurting him. A gassed Aldo shoots for a takedown, and Zahabi bowls him over and starts landing punches. Zahabi sits in Aldo’s guard, unleashing heavy punches and elbows. Zahabi continues to assault the former champ with unblocked elbows, and Aldo hangs on tight with nothing left to offer. Aldo keeps his hands up and breathes as hard as one can, and he clings to Zahabi while Zahabi offers more elbows. Zahabi complains that Aldo is holding his glove, and a moment of confusion leads to Zahabi hammering Aldo with more elbows. One slashing elbow shreds open a cut on the middle of Aldo’s forehead, and blood streams down his face immediately. Zahabi keeps pouring it on, looking to Miragliotta for a stoppage that is not yet to come. Every time Zahabi nails Aldo, he looks to Miragliotta. Aldo holds on to save himself and run out the clock, and Zahabi helps him back to his feet when the shocking match concludes. Both teams lift their fighters on their shoulders and parade them around the cage, embracing while held on the shoulders. What a fight.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Dayne Fox scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Zahabi (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Aiemann Zahabi def. Jose Aldo via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks José Aldo despite his age, noting he is still fast, clean, dangerous, durable, and impossible to take down. He argues Aldo won his last fight against Mario Bautista. He mentions an inside distance decision no action prop as an alternative if the moneyline is too steep. He believes Aldo is clearly the better fighter.
Big Brady picks the underdog Zahabi, citing his excellent striking defense (71%) and recent improved volume. He thinks the fight will be a close striking match that goes to decision, and with the fight in Canada, Zahabi could get the nod. He notes Aldo is 38 and hasn't used leg kicks in years, and believes the line is too wide.
Connor picks José Aldo, acknowledging that Zahabi has improved but arguing that Aldo's level of competition and technical striking will prevail. He notes that Zahabi's high guard and predictable patterns will be exploited by Aldo's body shots and counters. Connor expresses some concern about Aldo's age but ultimately believes he is still too good.
The host acknowledges Zahabi's recent streak but believes he will struggle against Aldo's Muay Thai. He notes that Aldo remains dangerous in striking even in losses and doubts Zahabi has the grappling or strength to control Aldo against the cage like Bautista did. He expects Aldo to lead in striking and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Aldo, believing he still has elite skills and will be too much for Zahabi. He thinks Aldo's reach, body shots, and experience will lead to a TKO, possibly in the second round. He doubts Zahabi can hold Aldo against the cage like other fighters have, and notes Aldo's motivation after the controversial Batista loss.
Zane picks José Aldo, arguing that Zahabi has never faced an elite-level athlete like Aldo. He notes that Zahabi's success comes from exploiting opponents who try to power through, but Aldo is a technical striker who will punish Zahabi's sloppy boxing. Zane believes Aldo's body work and counter-striking will be too much for Zahabi.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 0 | 51 of 117 | 43% | 65 of 139 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 49 of 142 | 34% | 90 of 196 | 0 of 10 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 7:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 13 of 26 | 50% | 20 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 20 of 53 | 37% | 40 of 81 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:20 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 21 of 43 | 48% | 25 of 50 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 53 | 35% | 31 of 65 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:14 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 0 | 17 of 48 | 35% | 20 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 36 | 27% | 19 of 50 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:41 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mario Bautista | 51 of 117 | 43% | 41 of 105 | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 46 of 111 | 2 of 3 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 49 of 142 | 34% | 26 of 111 | 12 of 19 | 11 of 12 | 44 of 136 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mario Bautista | 13 of 26 | 50% | 8 of 21 | 1 of 1 | 4 of 4 | 12 of 25 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 20 of 53 | 37% | 8 of 39 | 5 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 15 of 48 | 5 of 5 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Mario Bautista | 21 of 43 | 48% | 19 of 40 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 18 of 40 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 |
| José Aldo | 19 of 53 | 35% | 15 of 46 | 2 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 19 of 52 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Mario Bautista | 17 of 48 | 35% | 14 of 44 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 46 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 10 of 36 | 27% | 3 of 26 | 5 of 8 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Mario Bautista, citing his forward pressure, high volume striking, and youth. He believes José Aldo's age will eventually catch up to him, and that Bautista's pace and takedown threat will be too much. He notes Aldo looked good in his last fight but attributes that to Jonathan Martinez being gun-shy. He admits he is rooting for Aldo but thinks Bautista wins.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as an underdog, citing Aldo's elite takedown defense (91%) and superior striking. He believes Bautista will struggle to take Aldo down, and on the feet, Aldo should win exchanges. He notes Aldo looked great in his return against Jonathan Martinez and could even knock out Bautista, who has been finished before.
Cody picks Aldo, arguing that Aldo's recent win over Jonathan Martinez proved he still has it. He criticizes Bautista's resume, noting that his six-fight winning streak includes mostly low-level opponents. He believes Aldo's takedown defense and striking will be too much.
Connor also picks Bautista, echoing Zane's reasoning. He highlights Bautista's ability to build momentum and his fearlessness in pressing offense, which could break Aldo's aura of invincibility. He notes that Aldo's later career losses came against fighters who pressured him relentlessly, and Bautista has the right mix of skills to do the same.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo as a dog. He notes that Aldo still looks great and has only lost to the very top of the division. He points out that Mario Bautista's wins are against lower-level competition like Bonito Lopez and Ricky Simone, who is one-dimensional. Vreeland emphasizes that Aldo's takedown defense is elite, having stuffed 16 straight takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili, and that Bautista won't be able to wrestle him. He compares Bautista to Jonathan Martinez, whom Aldo easily beat, and believes Aldo is still above that level.
Daniel Vreeland picks José Aldo, citing his legendary takedown defense and counter-striking. He notes that Aldo's boxing has improved and that Bautista's high volume will leave openings for Aldo's counters. Vreeland also mentions Aldo's performance against Jonathan Martinez and his ability to stuff all 16 takedowns from Merab Dvalishvili. He expects Aldo to win the first two rounds and coast to a decision.
Jeff Fox picks José Aldo. He notes that Aldo is still winning and has only lost to the very top of the division. He believes Aldo's defensive skills, especially his takedown defense, have not declined. Fox thinks Aldo has another win in him and likes the dog money at +120.
The host believes Bautista is a more dangerous opponent than Aldo's last fight. He thinks Bautista will land strikes from distance and crack Aldo a few times, preventing Aldo from getting into his groove. He notes that Bautista's opponents often grapple with him, but Aldo doesn't do that, and Bautista is closer to his prime while Aldo at 38 may be a step behind. He suggests Bautista could even get a finish.
Paul leans toward Bautista, citing his improvements and volume striking. He thinks Bautista can outwork Aldo over three rounds, though he acknowledges the risk of getting starstruck. He sees value at minus 130.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Mario Bautista, citing Aldo's superior striking, power, and body work. He questions Bautista's level of competition, noting close fights with Deonte Blackshear and Ricky Simon. He believes Aldo's physicality and takedown defense will be too much, and that Aldo's body shots will be effective at altitude. He predicts Aldo wins a decision, surviving a tricky third round.
Zane picks Bautista, though not confidently. He believes Bautista's relentless pressure, refusal to accept defeated positions, and ability to mix in takedowns could overwhelm the 38-year-old Aldo. He notes that Aldo has been taken down by lesser wrestlers and that Bautista's grappling threat could open up striking. However, he acknowledges Aldo's power and counter-striking make it a risky pick.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 77 of 139 | 55% | 101 of 174 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 52 of 118 | 44% | 80 of 151 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 17 of 46 | 36% | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 15 of 34 | 44% | 16 of 35 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 50 | 60% | 30 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 14 of 38 | 36% | 20 of 44 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:20 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 43 | 69% | 54 of 77 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:45 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 0 | 23 of 46 | 50% | 44 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 77 of 139 | 55% | 41 of 96 | 26 of 33 | 10 of 10 | 70 of 132 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 52 of 118 | 44% | 36 of 96 | 9 of 15 | 7 of 7 | 50 of 116 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 17 of 46 | 36% | 5 of 30 | 6 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 17 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 15 of 34 | 44% | 8 of 23 | 1 of 5 | 6 of 6 | 15 of 34 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 30 of 50 | 60% | 15 of 34 | 11 of 12 | 4 of 4 | 30 of 50 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 14 of 38 | 36% | 12 of 35 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 14 of 38 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 30 of 43 | 69% | 21 of 32 | 9 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 23 of 36 | 5 of 5 | 2 of 2 |
| Jonathan Martinez | 23 of 46 | 50% | 16 of 38 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 21 of 44 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 |
Angelo picks Martinez due to age and activity, believing Aldo is older than listed and rusty after two years. He notes Martinez's leg kicks and technical striking. However, he does not bet on the fight out of respect for Aldo and hopes Aldo wins.
Big Brady is torn due to Aldo's long layoff and retirement, but thinks Aldo's power and the Brazil factor could lead to a decision win. He notes Martinez's leg kicks may be less effective against Aldo. He is not confident enough to bet but picks Aldo by 'robbery decision'.
Cody picks Aldo, citing the Brazilian crowd and judging bias, Aldo's power to have singular moments, and Martinez's questionable chin. He notes Aldo's boxing activity keeps him sharp and that Martinez faces pressure in Brazil. Cody took Aldo at +145.
Daniel Vreeland picks Martinez by decision, citing Martinez's youth, leg kicks, and efficient grappling. He questions Aldo's motivation after retirement and notes that Aldo has not used his leg kicks or takedowns recently. He believes Martinez will win at kicking range and that Aldo's boxing focus may not be enough. He stays away from betting the moneyline due to uncertainty about which Aldo shows up.
Daniel Vreeland agrees with Jeff Fox on Jonathan Martinez. He says he doesn't want to pick against Jose Aldo in Rio due to potential weird judging, but everything points to Martinez. Vreeland notes that Aldo has surprised before, but the circumstances suggest Martinez should win.
Jeff Fox picks Jonathan Martinez but calls it a pure pass fight. He acknowledges that prime Jose Aldo was better than Martinez, but questions Aldo's motivation since he has stated he wants to box and is fighting out his UFC contract. Fox thinks if Aldo is not motivated, Martinez will make him pay. He also notes the risk of judging in Rio and Aldo's ability to surprise. Fox says he doesn't want any part of the line but thinks Martinez wins.
Aldo is the Godfather of the kicking game and will shut down Martinez's kicks. He will use his speed and power advantage to crash the pocket and find Martinez's chin. Despite coming back from retirement at 37, Aldo's hand speed and power will be too much for Martinez, who is uncomfortable striking inside the pocket. Aldo knocks him out.
Paul picks Martinez, arguing Aldo gets out-struck in most fights and relies on moments. He believes Martinez's volume, speed, and leg kicks will overwhelm Aldo, who hasn't fought MMA in 10 months and looked poor in boxing. Paul sees Martinez winning by decision.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo, predicting a body shot finish. He believes Aldo's boxing and low-kick defense will be key, and that Martinez's recent performances show vulnerabilities. He notes Aldo's wins over Marlon Vera and Rob Font, and expects his size and experience to overwhelm Martinez.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 38 of 67 | 56% | 59 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 57 of 147 | 38% | 135 of 230 | 0 of 16 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 5:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 15 of 25 | 60% | 21 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 16 of 49 | 32% | 21 of 54 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 11 of 22 | 50% | 25 of 39 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 11 of 29 | 37% | 62 of 84 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:54 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 0 | 12 of 20 | 60% | 13 of 22 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 30 of 69 | 43% | 52 of 92 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:38 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Merab Dvalishvili | 38 of 67 | 56% | 11 of 35 | 21 of 25 | 6 of 7 | 35 of 63 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 57 of 147 | 38% | 20 of 102 | 10 of 14 | 27 of 31 | 43 of 132 | 14 of 15 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Merab Dvalishvili | 15 of 25 | 60% | 1 of 8 | 11 of 13 | 3 of 4 | 15 of 25 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 16 of 49 | 32% | 2 of 31 | 3 of 4 | 11 of 14 | 15 of 47 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Merab Dvalishvili | 11 of 22 | 50% | 5 of 15 | 4 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 9 of 20 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 11 of 29 | 37% | 5 of 22 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 4 | 9 of 27 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Merab Dvalishvili | 12 of 20 | 60% | 5 of 12 | 6 of 7 | 1 of 1 | 11 of 18 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 30 of 69 | 43% | 13 of 49 | 5 of 7 | 12 of 13 | 19 of 58 | 11 of 11 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Merab Dvalishvili over José Aldo, though he admits it's a tough pick and he'll be rooting for Aldo. He highlights Aldo's legendary takedown defense, noting that only Frankie Edgar has taken him down more than once in 27 Zuffa fights. However, Angelo believes that without Aldo's leg kicks to slow Merab's relentless wrestling, Aldo will be defending takedowns all night and likely lose a decision. He emphasizes Merab's insane 7.3 takedowns per 15 minutes and his chain-wrestling style.
Big Brady picks José Aldo as the underdog. He highlights Aldo's 90% takedown defense against elite competition, and believes Merab Dvalishvili's relentless wrestling will be neutralized. Aldo is the clearly better striker and has looked good recently. Brady expects Aldo to stuff takedowns, land more damage on the feet, and win a decision. He notes that Dvalishvili's wins are against lower-level competition and this is a big step up.
Cody picks Aldo as a live underdog, citing Aldo's excellent takedown defense (90% career), striking advantage, and ability to win rounds. He thinks Merab's run is overrated and that Aldo can exploit his aggressive style. He acknowledges it's a close fight but likes the plus money.
Daniel Levi picks Merab Dvalishvili to win a split decision, but he is hesitant because the fight is three rounds instead of five. He notes that Aldo has legendary takedown defense (90% over a long sample size) and will likely win the first round. However, he worries about Aldo's cardio in the elevation of Salt Lake City, as Aldo did not train at altitude. Levi believes Merab's relentless wrestling and pace will wear Aldo down in the second and third rounds, leading to a close decision. He acknowledges that Aldo could win a split decision and that there is value on Aldo as a dog.
Aldo's superior striking, get-up game, and takedown defense should allow him to land more damage than Dvalishvili, who struggles to hold opponents down. The host expects Aldo to win by knockout, possibly similar to the Jack Cartwright fight. He advises only 1 unit due to the risk of a changing of the guard.
Paul picks Merab but is not confident. He thinks Merab's relentless takedown attempts could be key, but notes his poor top control. He mentions he might play Merab over 2.5 takedowns on Prize Picks and prefers live betting.
The Guru predicts José Aldo wins by TKO in the second round. He describes Aldo popping the jab, landing leg kicks, and checking Merab's leg kicks. He sees Aldo stuffing takedowns, landing knees to the body, and eventually hurting Merab with body shots, leading to a TKO. He acknowledges the possibility that Aldo could get mashed up like he did against Yan in the fifth round, but believes his prediction will come true.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 149 of 305 | 48% | 193 of 350 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 2:08 |
| Rob Font | 2 | 86 of 161 | 53% | 96 of 172 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 1 | 0 | 9:06 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 36 of 90 | 40% | 37 of 91 | 1 of 3 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0:50 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 26 of 41 | 63% | 27 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 48 of 89 | 53% | 48 of 89 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 23 of 51 | 45% | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 37 of 64 | 57% | 46 of 73 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 12 of 29 | 41% | 14 of 31 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:10 | |
| 4 | José Aldo | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 27 of 37 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 10 of 12 | 83% | 15 of 18 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 4:35 | |
| 5 | José Aldo | 0 | 18 of 42 | 42% | 35 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 15 of 28 | 53% | 17 of 30 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 2:12 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 149 of 305 | 48% | 94 of 238 | 38 of 48 | 17 of 19 | 135 of 289 | 6 of 8 | 8 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 86 of 161 | 53% | 57 of 129 | 19 of 20 | 10 of 12 | 75 of 146 | 2 of 3 | 9 of 12 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 36 of 90 | 40% | 21 of 72 | 12 of 14 | 3 of 4 | 36 of 90 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 26 of 41 | 63% | 19 of 34 | 4 of 4 | 3 of 3 | 23 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 48 of 89 | 53% | 23 of 60 | 13 of 17 | 12 of 12 | 48 of 89 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 23 of 51 | 45% | 15 of 41 | 8 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 23 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 37 of 64 | 57% | 29 of 55 | 6 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 61 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 12 of 29 | 41% | 5 of 21 | 0 of 0 | 7 of 8 | 11 of 27 | 0 of 1 | 1 of 1 | |
| 4 | José Aldo | 10 of 20 | 50% | 9 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 12 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 10 of 12 | 83% | 6 of 8 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | 2 of 2 | 3 of 3 | |
| 5 | José Aldo | 18 of 42 | 42% | 12 of 32 | 6 of 9 | 0 of 1 | 14 of 37 | 4 of 5 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 15 of 28 | 53% | 12 of 25 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 13 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.
Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.
Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.
Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.
Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.
I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.
Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 114 of 223 | 51% | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 75 of 179 | 41% | 75 of 179 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:10 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 25 of 60 | 41% | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 28 of 76 | 36% | 28 of 76 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:01 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 42 of 95 | 44% | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 33 of 71 | 46% | 33 of 71 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 47 of 68 | 69% | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 0 | 14 of 32 | 43% | 14 of 32 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 114 of 223 | 51% | 74 of 168 | 32 of 47 | 8 of 8 | 114 of 223 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 75 of 179 | 41% | 35 of 131 | 3 of 6 | 37 of 42 | 71 of 175 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 25 of 60 | 41% | 13 of 40 | 12 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 25 of 60 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 28 of 76 | 36% | 11 of 54 | 2 of 4 | 15 of 18 | 27 of 75 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 42 of 95 | 44% | 32 of 78 | 9 of 16 | 1 of 1 | 42 of 95 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 33 of 71 | 46% | 16 of 51 | 1 of 2 | 16 of 18 | 32 of 70 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 47 of 68 | 69% | 29 of 50 | 11 of 11 | 7 of 7 | 47 of 68 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Pedro Munhoz | 14 of 32 | 43% | 8 of 26 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 6 | 12 of 30 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo is likely older than his listed age (34) and may be on the wrong side of 40. He sees Munhoz as a younger, high-volume fighter with leg kicks who can come forward and win. He acknowledges Aldo's counter-striking but believes Munhoz's constant movement and pressure will be key.
Big Brady sees this as a very close fight between Aldo's power and Munhoz's volume. He leans toward Munhoz's volume, noting Aldo's low output in recent fights. He thinks Munhoz's durability (never finished) will allow him to outwork Aldo and win a decision. He calls it one of the toughest fights to call on the card.
Cody picks Munhoz, arguing that Aldo fades in later rounds and Munhoz has excellent cardio and durability. He notes Aldo's recent reliance on grappling against Vera won't work against Munhoz. Cody sees Munhoz winning by decision after dropping the first round, and likes the live betting opportunity.
Daniel Levi slightly leans Pedro Munhoz due to Munhoz's high output, durability, and pressure fighting style. He acknowledges that Aldo is technically superior and could win early rounds, but expects Munhoz to take over in the later rounds as Aldo fades. He also notes that Munhoz has been robbed by judges before, which makes him less confident, but he still picks Munhoz to get it done.
Aldo has shown he can adapt, using grappling to win rounds. He is the better striker and should check Munhoz's calf kicks. Munhoz is durable but gets hit a lot, and Aldo can outpoint him over three rounds. Aldo's cardio is better in three-round fights, and he should win a decision. Munhoz's path is marching forward and landing big shots, but Aldo's experience and technique should prevail.
Paul does not make a clear pick for this fight. He acknowledges Cody's reasoning and mentions interest in the under 2.5 rounds at +175, but does not commit to a side. He notes that Aldo may look good early but pace slows, and that grappling may not be an option for Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo over Pedro Munhoz. He notes Aldo's size advantage, reach, and speed, and believes three rounds is not enough for Munhoz to wear on Aldo. He predicts Aldo will win the first two rounds and take a 29-28 decision. He mentions Aldo's body shots and Munhoz's vulnerability to body strikes.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 0 | 44 of 70 | 62% | 60 of 86 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:57 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 46 of 82 | 56% | 92 of 133 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 2:51 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 0 | 19 of 29 | 65% | 28 of 38 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 16 of 29 | 55% | 29 of 42 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:26 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 0 | 24 of 39 | 61% | 25 of 40 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 28 of 50 | 56% | 39 of 63 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:25 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 0 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 7 of 8 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 4:53 |
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 24 of 28 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Aldo | 44 of 70 | 62% | 17 of 38 | 21 of 26 | 6 of 6 | 36 of 62 | 8 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 46 of 82 | 56% | 8 of 33 | 11 of 15 | 27 of 34 | 34 of 69 | 12 of 13 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | José Aldo | 19 of 29 | 65% | 7 of 15 | 8 of 10 | 4 of 4 | 18 of 28 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 16 of 29 | 55% | 2 of 10 | 0 of 3 | 14 of 16 | 15 of 27 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | José Aldo | 24 of 39 | 61% | 9 of 22 | 13 of 15 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 32 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 28 of 50 | 56% | 5 of 21 | 11 of 12 | 12 of 17 | 18 of 40 | 10 of 10 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | José Aldo | 1 of 2 | 50% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Marlon Vera | 2 of 3 | 66% | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
This embarrassment of riches continues tonight, as all-time great Aldo (28-7, 10-6 UFC) faces rising star “Chito” Vera (29-8, 1 NC; 17-8, 1 NC UFC) at bantamweight. Aldo will attempt to earn his first win at 135 pounds in his third try, and he will do so under the watchful eye of referee Dan Miragliotta. The two strikers touch gloves, and it’s time to throw down. Vera starts off with a front kick, and Aldo slaps it out of the way but gets kicked in the leg. The former champ jabs the body, and Vera steps back to kick Aldo’s leg a few times. Aldo slings an overhand right, and he gets off a heavy leg kick like the days of old. Aldo checks a kick, and he absorbs a strike that makes him slip. Vera takes advantage of this to charge in and take the fight down, but Aldo keeps his balance and stands tall against the fence. “Chito” knees Aldo’s thigh a few times as he clings to Aldo, and the two trade short clinch strikes while Vera embraces the grind. Miragliotta calls on Vera to work, so Aldo reverses the position and pushes off, but gets slapped in the face by Vera. Vera lets loose a head kick that gets blocked, and Aldo stalks him down with a few jabs. Aldo digs to the body with a left hand at the end of a short combination, and Vera backpedals against the fence as he eats another liver shot. “Chito” hacks at Aldo’s leg with another kick, but Aldo completely ignores it and blocks a head kick. Aldo slams his right hand on Vera’s stomach, and a thudding leg kick follows suit. Aldo drills Vera with another leg kick, and Vera is already switching stances to avoid these strikes. Aldo fakes a leg kick to draw out a reaction, and he comes up short with a punch to the body. Vera crashes in to clinch, and Aldo spins him out and takes the center of the cage again. Aldo tattoos Vera’s midsection with another punch, and Vera responds with a head kick. Aldo replies in kind, and comes after it with a pounding leg kick that gives WEC fans something to cheer about. The round ends as Vera goes for a spinning kick to the head.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo
Round 2
A confident Vera comes out of his corner striking, but Vera is there to greet him with a few leg kicks. The former champ lets loose a right hand, and he picks away at his opponent with kicks. Aldo pierces the midsection with a right hand, and a kick makes Vera retreat and bounce off the fence. Aldo jabs and absorbs a body kick, but he wades through it to swing a hook from each hand. When Vera crashes in, Aldo is easily out of the way and shoves his man back. Vera scores a stern leg kick, and Aldo sits down on a body shot and a looping uppercut. When Vera commits to another low kick, Aldo is there to meet him with a few crushing body shots. Vera wears them well, but Aldo is back for more and even absorbs the end of a spinning back fist without issue. Vera pushes into a clinch to pursue a trip takedown, but the Brazilian keeps his footing as he knees the body repeatedly. Vera very nearly lands a takedown, but Aldo not only stays standing, but he knees Vera to the liver and the head on the way up. Aldo’s right to the body gets countered by a quick hook from Vera, and Vera presses forward to tie up Aldo again. Aldo is content to pepper away at the body with short shots, and Vera pays him back with a stern knee while keeping the ex-champ pinned to the fence. Vera lands a few body shots and an elbow over the top to break up the clinch and conclude the round.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 3
The touch of gloves opens the round, but Vera is ready to throw leather. Aldo ducks a strike, and when “Chito” tries to clinch up, Aldo circles around and takes his back. Vera defends himself from a takedown with a no-look elbow, but Aldo drags him down and then hops on like a Brazilian backpack. Vera leans down while trying to shake off Aldo, but the Ecuadorian falls to his knees. Aldo sinks in the body lock as he fishes for a choke, and Vera fights the grip and keeps his neck clear. The former champ confers with his corner as he holds on to Vera’s back, switching arms for the choke but not finding anything. “Chito” grabs the gloves to stop Aldo from getting a choke locked up, until Miragliotta notices and tells Vera to knock it off. Aldo softens him up with a few punches, but Vera powers up to his knees. Aldo is still firmly in back control with a body triangle locked tightly, and Vera bounces Aldo into the cage to try to scrape him off. Vera walks across the cage to take Aldo away from his corner and into Vera’s, and he slams down to get the ex-champ off but Aldo does not loosen up. Aldo sticks to Vera’s back as Vera stands back up again, and he cannot break the grip no matter how hard he tries. Vera signals a thumbs-down to show his displeasure with the position, but the round ends with Aldo on him like a cheap suit. Barring some strange judging antics, Jose Aldo should finally have earned his first win in the bantamweight division, while snapping a lengthy win streak at 135 pounds for Vera.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Aldo (29-28 Aldo)
The Official Result
Jose Aldo def. Marlon Vera via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks José Aldo as a guaranteed win, arguing that Marlon Vera's win over Sean O'Malley was a fluke due to O'Malley's ankle injury. He believes Aldo, one of the best strikers of all time, will easily outclass Vera.
Big Brady picks José Aldo over Marlon Vera, arguing that Aldo's level of competition is far superior and that Vera is overhyped. He notes Aldo's 90% takedown defense and believes Vera cannot take him down, forcing a striking match where Aldo has the edge. Brady thinks the fight goes to decision and considers the decision prop a good look, as Vera has never been finished.
The host is extremely confident in Aldo, calling him his strongest play on the card. He believes Aldo's leg kicks, boxing, and body work will overwhelm Vera, who is a slow starter and has never faced anyone of Aldo's level. He notes the line is too close due to recency bias and expects Aldo to win inside the distance.
The Guru picks José Aldo, emphasizing that this is a three-round fight which favors Aldo's cardio. He notes Aldo's close fight with Yan and his wins over Stephens and Moicano. He believes Aldo's leg kicks and experience will be key, and that Vera's win over O'Malley was due to a fluke leg injury. He predicts a competitive 29-28 decision for Aldo.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 1 | 194 of 309 | 62% | 258 of 376 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 4:50 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 83 of 157 | 52% | 83 of 157 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 0 | 33 of 55 | 60% | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 14 of 39 | 35% | 14 of 39 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 0 | 16 of 42 | 38% | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 24 of 41 | 58% | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 0 | 39 of 72 | 54% | 39 of 72 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 29 of 49 | 59% | 29 of 49 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 0 | 44 of 72 | 61% | 56 of 86 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:05 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 15 of 27 | 55% | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 1 | 62 of 68 | 91% | 113 of 120 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 3:06 |
| José Aldo | 0 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Petr Yan | 194 of 309 | 62% | 150 of 256 | 35 of 44 | 9 of 9 | 99 of 201 | 9 of 11 | 86 of 97 |
| José Aldo | 83 of 157 | 52% | 38 of 97 | 28 of 39 | 17 of 21 | 81 of 154 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Petr Yan | 33 of 55 | 60% | 21 of 42 | 10 of 11 | 2 of 2 | 17 of 36 | 0 of 0 | 16 of 19 |
| José Aldo | 14 of 39 | 35% | 10 of 28 | 1 of 6 | 3 of 5 | 14 of 39 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Petr Yan | 16 of 42 | 38% | 11 of 35 | 3 of 5 | 2 of 2 | 16 of 42 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 24 of 41 | 58% | 7 of 22 | 8 of 10 | 9 of 9 | 24 of 41 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Petr Yan | 39 of 72 | 54% | 27 of 56 | 10 of 14 | 2 of 2 | 35 of 68 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| José Aldo | 29 of 49 | 59% | 13 of 27 | 12 of 16 | 4 of 6 | 27 of 46 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Petr Yan | 44 of 72 | 61% | 32 of 58 | 9 of 11 | 3 of 3 | 28 of 52 | 5 of 7 | 11 of 13 |
| José Aldo | 15 of 27 | 55% | 8 of 20 | 7 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 15 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Petr Yan | 62 of 68 | 91% | 59 of 65 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 59 of 65 |
| José Aldo | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Big Brady picks Petr Yan by fourth-round knockout, citing Yan's volume and youth. He thinks Aldo is live but Yan's pressure and output will overwhelm Aldo late. He is not betting at -245 but believes Yan wins if he doesn't get caught.
Daniel Levi picks Petr Yan, citing his cardio, composure, pressure, and competitive spirit. He believes Yan will push Aldo back, chip away, and potentially finish him in the first three rounds. He notes Aldo's chin deterioration, lack of low kicks, and tendency to gas, while Yan controls the cage and never takes a back step. He expects Yan to become champion.
Aldo looked impressive in his bantamweight debut against Marlon Moraes, showing good cardio and aggression. Yan has flaws in leg kick defense, which Aldo can exploit. Aldo is still sharp and fast at 33, and the line at +181 offers value. Picks Aldo to win by decision, though a late stoppage is possible.
The Guru picks Yan, citing Yan's low volume as a tactic to get reads, and his ability to drop Rivera at the end of rounds. He thinks Aldo's cardio isn't the best in a five-rounder and that Yan could take him down and make him think about the takedown. He also notes that Marlon Moraes was able to take Aldo down, suggesting Aldo's takedown defense may not be as sturdy at bantamweight.
Rob Font - Fight History
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 10 of 31 | 32% | 29 of 50 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 8 of 33 | 24% | 47 of 75 | 16 of 18 | 88% | 0 | 1 | 10:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 7 of 20 | 35% | 8 of 21 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 12 of 29 | 5 of 6 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 2:11 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 1 | 0:13 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 1 of 5 | 20% | 17 of 23 | 3 of 3 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 4:07 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 3 of 9 | 33% | 13 of 19 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 0 | 2 of 6 | 33% | 18 of 23 | 8 of 9 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 3:47 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 10 of 31 | 32% | 6 of 25 | 2 of 4 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 31 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 8 of 33 | 24% | 5 of 29 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 8 of 32 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 7 of 20 | 35% | 4 of 15 | 1 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 18 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 4 | 5 of 22 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 1 of 5 | 20% | 1 of 5 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 1 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 3 of 9 | 33% | 2 of 8 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 3 of 9 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Raul Rosas Jr. | 2 of 6 | 33% | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo highlights that Rob Font is a technical striker with no takedown defense, while Raul Rosas is a relentless grappler with fantastic control. He expects Rosas to wrestle and get as many takedowns as he wants, as long as he doesn't try to box with Font. He calls it a Raul showcase.
Big Brady picks Raul Rosas Jr. over Rob Font. He highlights Font's poor takedown defense (43%) and tendency to be controlled on the ground, as seen in the Cory Sandhagen fight. Rosas Jr. has improved cardio and should be able to take Font down and hold him there. Brady expects a decision win for Rosas Jr., as Font has good defensive grappling but won't take risks to get up.
Cody leans toward Rosas Jr., citing Font's poor takedown defense and Rosas's youth and improvement. He notes Font's age and slowing down, and expects Rosas to rack up control time and win a decision. He mentions the Chiawei effect as a factor.
Connor picks Rosas, citing Font's poor takedown defense (43% career) and Rosas's relentless wrestling. He notes that Font got taken down seven times by John Matsumoto and still won, but Sandhagen's disciplined wrestling led to a loss. Connor believes Rosas's commitment to wrestling will be enough, despite Rosas's underdeveloped striking and youth. He acknowledges Font's toughness but sees a clear path for Rosas.
Daniel Vreeland confidently picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing Rob Font's poor takedown defense and getup game, especially as he fatigues. He believes Rosas has matured since his loss to Cristian Rodriguez and will submit Font. Vreeland acknowledges Font's experience but thinks Rosas's grappling will be the difference.
The host argues that Raul Rosas Jr. is a good bet despite being a favorite because of the extreme age gap (18 years younger), Font's poor takedown defense (42% takedown offense, gave up takedowns to Matsumoto, Figueiredo, Sandhagen), and Font's reliance on volume striking rather than power. He believes Rosas Jr. will stick to Font like glue, outgrapple him, and win two out of three rounds. He notes that Font's windows to strike will be slim due to constant takedown threats.
James picks Rob Font as an underdog, believing Font is the much better striker who will win the minutes on the feet. He acknowledges Rosas Jr.'s grappling threat but questions whether Rosas can hold Font down for extended periods, citing Font's ability to get back up in recent fights. James also notes that Rosas has never fought at this level and has been reversed in previous fights, making Font the value side. However, he admits Font's chin is a concern and that Rosas could hurt him.
Rosas Jr. is persistent with his grappling and will eventually take Font down and control him. Font has been susceptible to wrestlers. Rosas should win a decision, but the line is too high; only play if it drops to -150.
Paul picks Rosas Jr. but with hesitation, noting his takedown ability but concerns about gassing. He thinks Rosas will get early takedowns and control, but Font's get-up game is good. He suggests betting live after seeing if Font can get back up.
The MMA Guru picks Raul Rosas Jr., citing his relentless grappling and Font's struggles against grapplers (e.g., Sandhagen). He believes Rosas will take Font down and control him, winning by decision. He mentions the New England Cartel curse.
Zane picks Font, noting that Font has been taken down many times but still wins fights. He points out that Rosas's game is limited and that Font's experience and ability to do damage on the feet will be key. Zane acknowledges the risk from Rosas's speed and confidence, but believes Font's toughness and veteran savvy will carry him. He compares it to Font's win over Matsumoto.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 49 of 158 | 31% | 49 of 158 | 0 of 5 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:59 |
| David Martínez | 0 | 62 of 155 | 40% | 115 of 210 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:33 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 11 of 51 | 21% | 11 of 51 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:20 |
| David Martínez | 0 | 22 of 45 | 48% | 35 of 58 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 15 of 49 | 30% | 15 of 49 | 0 of 3 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:39 |
| David Martínez | 0 | 10 of 27 | 37% | 30 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 23 of 58 | 39% | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| David Martínez | 0 | 30 of 83 | 36% | 50 of 105 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:03 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 49 of 158 | 31% | 40 of 138 | 7 of 17 | 2 of 3 | 49 of 158 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| David Martínez | 62 of 155 | 40% | 33 of 115 | 10 of 16 | 19 of 24 | 62 of 155 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 11 of 51 | 21% | 11 of 48 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 11 of 51 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| David Martínez | 22 of 45 | 48% | 7 of 25 | 5 of 8 | 10 of 12 | 22 of 45 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 15 of 49 | 30% | 9 of 37 | 5 of 11 | 1 of 1 | 15 of 49 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| David Martínez | 10 of 27 | 37% | 6 of 20 | 3 of 5 | 1 of 2 | 10 of 27 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 23 of 58 | 39% | 20 of 53 | 2 of 4 | 1 of 1 | 23 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| David Martínez | 30 of 83 | 36% | 20 of 70 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 10 | 30 of 83 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Rob Font, despite his age (38) and lack of takedown defense. He says Font is a technical striker with clean hands, good chin, and veteran composure. He thinks David Martinez, stepping up on short notice, probably won't look to wrestle unless losing the striking exchanges, and by then it's too late. He says the over 2.5 is probably rock solid. He also mentions a David Martinez inside the distance decision no action prop.
Big Brady picks Font because Martinez is a big step down in competition. He notes Font has fought and lost to elite fighters, but has beaten lower-level opponents. He likes Font's volume, cardio, and experience. He predicts a decision win, though he acknowledges Martinez has power and Font can be hurt.
Connor picks Rob Font, emphasizing Font's reach advantage and high-output one-two, which will trouble Martínez's in-and-out striking style. He notes that Martínez struggled with the jab against Xavier Franklin and Font is a better version of that. Connor acknowledges Font's age (38) but says his chin hasn't gone yet, and Martínez lacks the power or wrestling to exploit it.
Martinez has received a lot of love, moving from +180 to +115, and the host agrees. He believes Martinez is closer to his prime, dangerous in striking, treads distance well, and will counter Font's output. He expects Martinez to stuff takedowns and win on the scorecards.
The MMA Guru picks Rob Font, dismissing David Martinez as unproven with wins over low-level opponents. He believes Font's jab and reach will be key, and that Martinez's single-shot explosivity won't trouble Font. He predicts a decision win, possibly 30-27 or 30-26, as Martinez loses composure when peppered with jabs.
Zane picks Rob Font, highlighting Font's consistent output, power, and experience against top competition. He notes that Font's losses have come only against elite fighters with superior wrestling or power, and Martínez lacks both. Zane believes Martínez's step up in competition is too large, and Font's one-two and takedown to seal rounds will be decisive.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 95 of 171 | 55% | 113 of 191 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 1:18 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 77 of 181 | 42% | 113 of 225 | 7 of 10 | 70% | 0 | 0 | 6:15 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 21 of 34 | 61% | 27 of 41 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:26 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 32 of 49 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 3:40 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 34 of 56 | 60% | 36 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 1 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 29 of 61 | 47% | 35 of 69 | 5 of 5 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:05 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 40 of 81 | 49% | 50 of 92 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:52 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 0 | 41 of 101 | 40% | 46 of 107 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:30 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 95 of 171 | 55% | 82 of 157 | 13 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 85 of 157 | 10 of 14 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 77 of 181 | 42% | 43 of 135 | 9 of 13 | 25 of 33 | 69 of 169 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 21 of 34 | 61% | 20 of 33 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 19 of 32 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 7 of 19 | 36% | 1 of 12 | 3 of 3 | 3 of 4 | 3 of 15 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 34 of 56 | 60% | 28 of 50 | 6 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 34 of 56 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 29 of 61 | 47% | 16 of 43 | 3 of 4 | 10 of 14 | 29 of 61 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 40 of 81 | 49% | 34 of 74 | 6 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 32 of 69 | 8 of 12 | 0 of 0 |
| Jean Matsumoto | 41 of 101 | 40% | 26 of 80 | 3 of 6 | 12 of 15 | 37 of 93 | 4 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Jean Matsumoto, citing his youth, aggression, power, and multiple ways to win. He notes Rob Font is 37 and aging, and while Font's boxing is clean, he can't defend takedowns. He draws a parallel to Calvin Kattar being out-struck by a younger fighter. He is surprised the line moved toward Font.
Big Brady picks Jean Matsumoto, noting that Rob Font's takedown defense and ground game have looked awful recently, citing the Cory Sandhagen and Kyler Phillips fights. He believes Matsumoto, though not the best wrestler, is a good grappler who can take Font down and keep him there. He expects Matsumoto to win by decision, as Font has good submission defense but is content to stay on his back and lose minutes.
Connor picks Font, agreeing that Matsumoto is uncreative and predictable, while Font is a skilled boxer with good durability. He notes that Matsumoto fights in bursts and leaves gaps, which Font can exploit. Connor also points out that Font has a reach advantage and is a good puncher himself, as seen in the Yadong fight.
The host notes Matsumoto is a short-notice replacement but expects his damaging style and effective striking in the pocket to be too much for Font. He thinks Matsumoto's damage-based approach will win on the scorecards as long as Font doesn't get too far ahead in volume.
The Guru strongly picks Font as an underdog, calling it a no-brainer. He criticizes Matsumoto's undefeated record, noting close fights with Brad Katona and Dan Arreta where he was outgrappled. He highlights Font's experience against top competition, durability (never finished by strikes), and striking menace. He believes Matsumoto lacks KO power and won't submit or outgrapple Font.
Zane picks Font because Matsumoto is a limited fighter who fights in bursts and is predictable, while Font has a clear winning formula of jabbing and boxing. He notes that Font is durable, mentally tough, and has a reach advantage. Zane believes Matsumoto would need to hurt Font badly every round to win, which is unlikely given Font's durability.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 0 | 61 of 137 | 44% | 65 of 144 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 1:19 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 38 of 125 | 30% | 50 of 143 | 4 of 5 | 80% | 0 | 0 | 4:42 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 0 | 7 of 19 | 36% | 7 of 20 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 10 of 26 | 38% | 21 of 42 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:34 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 0 | 31 of 58 | 53% | 34 of 63 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:29 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 14 of 48 | 29% | 15 of 49 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:24 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 0 | 23 of 60 | 38% | 24 of 61 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:21 |
| Kyler Phillips | 0 | 14 of 51 | 27% | 14 of 52 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:44 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 61 of 137 | 44% | 50 of 122 | 11 of 15 | 0 of 0 | 56 of 131 | 5 of 6 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 38 of 125 | 30% | 19 of 98 | 9 of 14 | 10 of 13 | 32 of 112 | 1 of 6 | 5 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 7 of 19 | 36% | 6 of 17 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 10 of 26 | 38% | 8 of 23 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 7 | |
| 2 | Rob Font | 31 of 58 | 53% | 23 of 48 | 8 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 28 of 55 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 14 of 48 | 29% | 6 of 38 | 5 of 6 | 3 of 4 | 13 of 44 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Rob Font | 23 of 60 | 38% | 21 of 57 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 58 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Kyler Phillips | 14 of 51 | 27% | 5 of 37 | 2 of 6 | 7 of 8 | 14 of 49 | 0 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Phillips (-425), Font (+330)
Round 1
Sitting in the co-main event slot is a bantamweight contest that will reestablish or coin a new contender in the talent-rich division. Having lost four of his last five, Font’s (20-8, 10-7 UFC) back is about as against the wall as it gets. As much as Font has largely struggled, Phillips (12-2, 6-1 UFC) has flourished, winner of his last three—albeit with one win in 2022, one in 2023 and the latest in March. This potential passing of the torch encounter will be officiated by referee Keith Peterson, and the 135ers touch ‘em up without a shred of nonsense between them. Font jabs his way directly into action, landing a few punches and setting up more. As Font presses forward, Phillips shoots in and easily hits a takedown, landing in side control and laughing off a guillotine choke defense from the New Englander. Phillips steps over from one side to the other, shifting to half guard as he sets up an arm-triangle choke. When Phillips abandons the choke, he secures side control almost effortlessly. Font turns to the other direction, but he stops doing so when realizing this will give his back up. Phillips controls from on top without unleashing much offense, posturing to the other side to drop down a single elbow. Any time Font tries to scramble, Phillips easily sees it coming and lays into Font with powerful elbows. Font turns over after fighting off a submission setup to explode back to his feet, and Phillips greets him with a spinning wheel kick. Font keeps his guard up and plods forward, scoring an uppercut and swinging a second before shooting in for a double. Font takes Phillips’ back standing, and Phillips breaks out of the position without much concern. Phillips scores a one-two, Font throws back, and the round ends.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Phillips
Round 2
Font stalks out of his corner to engage in the second round, no-selling a leg kick so he can chamber and loose a few hard right hands. Font busts Phillips in the chops with a particularly strong right, and “The Matrix” responds with a shot that plants Font on his back. Font fights much more aggressively to get to his feet, walking up the wall and pressuring Phillips as much as he can. Font trails after Phillips, keeping his guard high and using tight boxing combinations to keep Phillips honest. Font winds up with a right hand that misses the mark, and he lets Phillips throw first so he can counter and tie him up. Font decides to disengage, taking a body kick to the side and chasing after Phillips to make Phillips turn tail and run. Phillips resets and kicks Font in the ribs, and he leans back after a leg kick to get popped with an overhand right. Font digs a body shot, and Phillips escapes and is eating powerful blows while his hands are low and his chin is high in the air. Font stabs his foe in the sternum with his foot, and he ignores a lazy high kick aimed his direction so he can blast Phillips in the face with a right hand. Fond chomps down on his mouthpiece and nails Phillips again, and swelling quickly develops around the Arizonan’s left eye. Phillips keeps on his bike, and Font is a Terminator walking through anything aimed at him so he can tag Phillips with power. A Phillips spin strike fails, as Font keeps his hands high and works the body to open up the head. Phillips tries to tie him up, and he pushes off to fire off a one-two and a spinning back fist. Phillips clinches, and Font wrenches himself away so he can keep the suffocating pace. Phillips gets backed off courtesy of several jabs, and Font utilizes the clinch to wear further on Phillips. Right before the bell, Phillips hits a foot sweep and puts Font on his seat.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Font
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Font
Round 3
Phillips starts off the round backing away from his opponent, and he lands a leg kick and shoots for a successful takedown. Font hits the ground and starts hand-fighting, eventually settling for muscling back to his feet. Phillips hacks at him with a tomahawking elbow when upright, and Font laughs it off and slugs him in the face with a right hand. Font loads up two more times on heavy rights, and both whoosh past “The Matrix.” Font surges into action behind his punches, landing and turning Phillips around. Phillips steels himself and swing back for vengeance, cracking Font with a right hand and rushing to the side to get a modicum of space. Font will not let him breathe for long, bearing down on him and crushing him against the cage wall. Phillips escapes and ducks an overhand right, kicking the side as he further escapes. Font sticks out a jab, and he sets up an uppercut when Phillips splits the distance to take him down. Font keeps pursuing Phillips fearlessly, getting his calf kicked hard but keeping his balance to stride ever forward. Font’s punches are telegraphed, as are Phillips’ takedowns. The latter is what comes next, but Font stops it in its tracks. Phillips breaks away before eating a strike, and he backpedals and has his left hand up to block Font’s wide right hooks. Phillips clips Font with his own short flurry, and Font tags him with one overhand right to slow him again. Font’s momentum leads to another clinch, and Phillips frames off with his knee. Font loads up time and again on his booming right, and Phillips gives him a little extra something to think about with a wheel kick. Font catches Phillips with a right hand on the way out, and Phillips’ legs are loose but he is still with it. Font keeps after him, watching for a spin kick that comes and advancing to sling final leather. Font stuffs one final takedown, and time expires.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Ben Duffy scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
Scottie Smith scores the round: 10-9 Font (29-28 Font)
The Official Result
Rob Font def. Kyler Phillips via Unanimous Decision (29-28, 29-28, 29-28)
Angelo picks Kyler Phillips, citing the decline of the New England Cartel's takedown defense. He notes Rob Font's vulnerability to wrestling and believes Phillips' diverse striking and wrestling will make Font look old and slow. He expects Phillips to mix in takedowns and win comfortably. He criticizes the New England Cartel's inability to evolve.
Big Brady picks Kyler Phillips by any method. He notes Font's durability is diminishing, he gets wobbled often, and has poor takedown defense. Phillips can win on the feet or by takedown. He expects Phillips to get it done, possibly by knockout, submission, or decision, given Font's toughness.
Connor also picks Phillips but with hesitation, noting that Phillips' early speed and variety are key, but he fades late. He thinks Font could come on strong in the third round if Phillips hasn't put him away. Connor is not fully convinced about Phillips yet, but sees the takedowns and speed as enough to win over three rounds.
This fight was not discussed in the transcript.
Font has been on a bad slump. His volume style can be effective, but Phillips will land more significant strikes and mix in takedowns. Phillips will grind out a win on the scorecards.
The Guru picks Phillips over Font, citing Font's susceptibility to being grappled and his age (37). He notes Phillips has explosive takedowns and offensive grappling, as shown against Pedro Munhoz, and trains with Sean O'Malley. He expects Phillips to mix things up and win a decision, though he acknowledges Font is a good boxer.
Zane picks Phillips, citing his speed and variety early in the fight to stump Font for two rounds. He acknowledges that Phillips tends to fade in the third round, but believes Font's linear style and lack of adaptability will allow Phillips to build an insurmountable lead. He notes that Phillips may also use takedowns, though that could gas him.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 46 of 94 | 48% | 48 of 96 | 0 of 2 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:22 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 45 of 74 | 60% | 53 of 84 | 4 of 7 | 57% | 0 | 0 | 4:02 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 22 of 37 | 59% | 22 of 37 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:13 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 10 of 20 | 50% | 10 of 20 | 2 of 3 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0:34 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 15 of 33 | 45% | 17 of 35 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 15 of 22 | 68% | 15 of 22 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:09 | |
| 3 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 0 | 9 of 24 | 37% | 9 of 24 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:09 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 20 of 32 | 62% | 28 of 42 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 2:19 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deiveson Figueiredo | 46 of 94 | 48% | 39 of 85 | 5 of 6 | 2 of 3 | 44 of 92 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 45 of 74 | 60% | 35 of 64 | 7 of 7 | 3 of 3 | 33 of 60 | 6 of 7 | 6 of 7 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 22 of 37 | 59% | 20 of 34 | 2 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 22 of 37 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 10 of 20 | 50% | 7 of 17 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 20 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 15 of 33 | 45% | 12 of 29 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 13 of 31 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 15 of 22 | 68% | 12 of 19 | 2 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 12 of 18 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Deiveson Figueiredo | 9 of 24 | 37% | 7 of 22 | 2 of 2 | 0 of 0 | 9 of 24 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 20 of 32 | 62% | 16 of 28 | 4 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 11 of 22 | 3 of 3 | 6 of 7 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogBETTING PREVIEW | SCOUTING REPORT | ODDS: Font (-135), Figueiredo (+114)
Round 1
Business picks up with a bantamweight showcase pitting Font (20-7, 10-6 UFC) against Figueiredo (21-3-1, 10-3-1 UFC)—a two-time flyweight champion making the jump to 135 pounds. Figueiredo has not fought anyone other than archrival Brandon Moreno since November 2020.
For more on the Brazilian’s move to the bantamweight division, read “New Digs for Deiveson Figueiredo” from the aforementioned Stein
. Rexroad serves as the referee. Font moves to the center of the cage and stalks the Brazilian from range. He backs up Figueiredo with a clean one-two, shrugs off an attempted clinch and flicks out a few jabs. Figueiredo completes a takedown but cannot keep the New England Cartel rep down. Back on the feet, Font gets to work with his jab. Figueiredo lands an overhand right, ducks into takedown and again allows his opponent to get back to his feet. Font fires a long one-two and moves behind Figueiredo. He lifts the Brazilian off his feet but cannot finish the takedown. Round is still up in the air with a minute to go. Font counters with a right uppercut, and they trade jabs. Figueiredo staggers him with an overhand right but elects not to accelerate. He lures Font into a tie-up along the fence, stalls and then breaks into open space. Figueiredo looking more and more comfortable on the feet. They trad jabs at the close of the round.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 2
Font gets busy with his jab but allows the Brazilian to close the distance and clinch along the fence. The action stalls briefly. Figueiredo lands a knee south of the equator, resulting in a brief pause. Font readjusts the jewels, and they resume their battle. Figueiredo connects with an uppercut and stays light on his feet. Font shuts off a takedown attempt, then walks into a clean right hand from the Brazilian. He pops Figueiredo with a leg kick and presses forward behind punches. Figueiredo ducks a punch and secures a takedown with two minutes left in the round. Font scrambles free, and they get back to business in the center of the cage. Figueiredo’s output has dwindled here. Font pounds home a jab, then follows with a leg kick. He circled out of a clinch from the Brazilian, marches forward and pumps out his jab. Figueiredo lands a clean two-punch volley and follows with a front kick up the middle.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo
Round 3
Figueiredo moves forward behind a front kick, initiates a tie-up and works for a takedown. Font’s defense holds up. Figueiredo steps into a right hand, then another and engages the Massachusetts native in the clinch. Nothing materializes. Font connects with a right hook to the body. Both men landing in single shots. Figueiredo dazes his counterpart with a wicked left hook, pushes him backward, fires a knee to the body and delivers another left hook upstairs. Font answers with a multi-punch volley, mixes in a jab and whiffs on an elbow over the top. They trade jabs midway through Round 3. Figueiredo ducks into a single-leg and completes a key takedown. He climbs to full mount, drops elbows and hammerfists, maintains his position and gets warned for grabbing the fence. Font reclaims half guard but struggles to control the Brazilian’s posture. With 30 seconds to go, this is slipping away from Font. Figueiredo slides to side control, applies heavy pressure and bleeds the remaining time off the clock.
Sherdog Scores
Brian Knapp scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
Tyler Treese scores the round: 10-9 Figueiredo (30-27 Figueiredo)
The Official Result
Deiveson Figueiredo def. Rob Font—Unanimous Decision (30-27, 30-27, 30-27)
Big Brady picks Figueiredo as a dog, citing paths to victory via wrestling or landing big shots. He notes Font's poor takedown defense and get-up game, and thinks Figueiredo can mix in takedowns. He also thinks Figueiredo's power could be a factor, as Font gets rocked often. He predicts a decision win for Figueiredo.
Cody takes Figueiredo as an underdog. He cites Figueiredo's power, multiple paths to victory (knockdowns, takedowns), and Font's poor takedown defense as shown against Cory Sandhagen. He thinks Figueiredo can land bigger shots and mix in wrestling. He also notes Figueiredo moving up to 135 may help his cardio and power translation.
Lucrative James leans towards Rob Font, citing his size, reach, and experience against top bantamweights. He acknowledges Figueiredo's power and guillotine threat, and Font's questionable chin. However, he believes Font should be favored and may look to attack a prop rather than the moneyline due to volatility.
Figueiredo moves up to bantamweight and should carry power and strength. Font has been outgrappled and outdamaged in recent fights, with poor takedown defense and a tendency to lose rounds due to damage. Figueiredo's power and ability to land big shots could lead to a knockout, similar to Font's losses to Aldo and Vera. Font may win minutes, but Figueiredo will win moments and likely finish.
Paul sides slightly with Font based on volume. He thinks Font should box Figueiredo up and put up crazy volume over three rounds. He notes Figueiredo's power and Font's chinny history, but believes Font's volume will be enough. He says the line is accurate and he's not too confident.
The MMA Guru picks Rob Font by first-round KO, believing Figueiredo's power won't translate up a division and that Font's reach and jab will be decisive. He notes Figueiredo's defensive flaws and recent injuries. He predicts Font will catch Figueiredo early and put him away.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 34 of 84 | 40% | 132 of 211 | 7 of 7 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 19:38 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 9 of 49 | 18% | 25 of 69 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 1:08 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 8 of 26 | 30% | 27 of 51 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 2:43 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 5 of 22 | 22% | 6 of 24 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 2 | Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 7 of 15 | 46% | 38 of 54 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 0 of 7 | 0% | 4 of 12 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 3 | Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 10 of 24 | 41% | 27 of 48 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 3:43 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 4 of 10 | 40% | 4 of 11 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 4 | Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 6 of 11 | 54% | 29 of 39 | 2 of 2 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 4:41 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 0 of 4 | 0% | 2 of 7 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 5 | Cory Sandhagen | 0 | 3 of 8 | 37% | 11 of 19 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 1 | 0 | 3:50 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 0 of 6 | 0% | 9 of 15 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:45 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cory Sandhagen | 34 of 84 | 40% | 30 of 79 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 47 | 0 of 1 | 24 of 36 |
| Rob Font | 9 of 49 | 18% | 5 of 43 | 2 of 3 | 2 of 3 | 8 of 44 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cory Sandhagen | 8 of 26 | 30% | 6 of 23 | 1 of 2 | 1 of 1 | 5 of 19 | 0 of 1 | 3 of 6 |
| Rob Font | 5 of 22 | 22% | 2 of 18 | 1 of 1 | 2 of 3 | 4 of 17 | 0 of 3 | 1 of 2 | |
| 2 | Cory Sandhagen | 7 of 15 | 46% | 6 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 1 | 1 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 6 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 0 of 7 | 0% | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 7 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 3 | Cory Sandhagen | 10 of 24 | 41% | 9 of 23 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 14 | 0 of 0 | 8 of 10 |
| Rob Font | 4 of 10 | 40% | 3 of 9 | 1 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 4 of 10 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 4 | Cory Sandhagen | 6 of 11 | 54% | 6 of 11 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 3 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 8 |
| Rob Font | 0 of 4 | 0% | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 5 | Cory Sandhagen | 3 of 8 | 37% | 3 of 8 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | 1 of 4 | 0 of 0 | 2 of 4 |
| Rob Font | 0 of 6 | 0% | 0 of 5 | 0 of 1 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 6 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Cory Sandhagen, citing his active striking, fluid combinations, and solid BJJ. He notes that Rob Font is a gritty boxer with a solid chin but lacks power and is on the back nine of his career. Angelo believes Sandhagen will make it a true MMA fight by mixing in wrestling, and that the catchweight benefits Sandhagen as the larger fighter. He also points out that Font is stepping up on short notice and that Sandhagen dominated Chito Vera, who is more dangerous than Font.
Big Brady is very confident in Sandhagen, citing Rob Font's age (36), short notice, and accumulated damage from recent fights like the Marlon Vera beating where Font was dropped multiple times. He believes Sandhagen's diverse striking and submission threat will overwhelm Font, and that Font's durability has declined. He predicts Sandhagen will either dominate to a 50-43 decision or become the first to knock Font out, possibly with a head kick or knee.
Cody picks Sandhagen due to his blend of striking and takedowns, plus a full camp preparing for Umar Nurmagomedov. He notes Font's short notice and history of being dropped (five times in two fights) as vulnerabilities. Cody believes Sandhagen can mix in takedowns and strike effectively, though he acknowledges Font's elite striking and volume. He also mentions betting Sandhagen by knockout at +225.
Daniel Levi is confident in Cory Sandhagen, citing his evolution into a well-rounded fighter with improved wrestling and durability. He notes Sandhagen's killer resume and recent performances against Song Yadong and Chito Vera as evidence of his growth. Levi believes Sandhagen's fight IQ and length will be key, and that he will avoid trading in the pocket with Font's dangerous jab. He sees Sandhagen as a future title contender and expects him to shine in the main event.
James is very confident Sandhagen dominates. He thinks Sandhagen can do whatever he wants—strike, takedown, submit, or knock out Font. He believes Font's chin is done and predicts a knockout in the second or third round. He notes Sandhagen's dynamism and one-shot power.
Sandhagen has an unorthodox style that blends wrestling and striking, and he's made for five rounds. Font has a great comeback win over Yanez, but Sandhagen's style will be too unorthodox for Font to get going. Sandhagen eats damage well and counters effectively. The fight likely goes the distance, so over 4.5 rounds is my favorite prop, but Sandhagen gets his hand raised. The line is too wide to bet heavily, and there is value on Font at these odds.
Paul agrees with Cody, citing Sandhagen's full camp and wrestling advantage. He notes Font's short notice and chin issues, but expects a competitive fight if it goes the distance. Paul leans towards Sandhagen by knockout, though he respects both fighters.
The host picks Cory Sandhagen confidently, calling him a cerebral, diverse striker in his prime. He believes Sandhagen will pick Font apart with superior technique and defense. He notes Font is 36 and while dangerous, Sandhagen is a better mixed martial artist. He predicts a unanimous decision but does not rule out a head kick knockout. He recommends Sandhagen as a parlay piece and expects the line to rise.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 1 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 33 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Adrian Yañez | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 1 | 33 of 75 | 44% | 33 of 75 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:04 |
| Adrian Yañez | 0 | 25 of 54 | 46% | 25 of 54 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rob Font | 33 of 75 | 44% | 30 of 69 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 |
| Adrian Yañez | 25 of 54 | 46% | 21 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rob Font | 33 of 75 | 44% | 30 of 69 | 2 of 5 | 1 of 1 | 27 of 66 | 1 of 2 | 5 of 7 |
| Adrian Yañez | 25 of 54 | 46% | 21 of 49 | 1 of 2 | 3 of 3 | 25 of 51 | 0 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
Angelo picks Adrian Yañez but is not highly confident, noting that Rob Font is a clean technical striker who is very live. He thinks Yañez is a younger version of Font, faster and with more power, but Font has a good chin and could win. He warns that this could be a changing of the guard, but Font could also remind everyone he's still elite.
Big Brady picks Adrian Yañez despite wanting to pick Rob Font, due to Font's recent durability issues. He notes Font has taken massive damage in his last two fights and has been dropped repeatedly. He believes Yañez has power and volume, and can win by decision or knockout. He predicts a decision win for Yañez.
Cody agrees with Paul on Font. He points out that Yañez struggled early against Randy Costa, getting dominated in round one before Costa gassed. Cody believes Font's constant jab and long-range strikes will disrupt Yañez's timing and prevent him from landing his power shots. He sees Font's volume as overwhelming and thinks Yañez may struggle to find his rhythm. Cody also notes Font by decision at +200 is worth a look.
Connor picks Yañez because Font's defensive flaws are well-documented: he has poor footwork after committing to his right hand and relies on a static high guard. Yañez is a fantastic counter puncher who will find openings as Font falls into predictable rhythms. However, Connor notes that Yañez can be a slow starter and may lose the first round if Font's jab takes over. He also mentions that Yañez's high-output style can lead to fatigue, as seen against Davey Grant. Despite these concerns, Connor believes Yañez's sharp countering will eventually catch Font.
Jacob is extremely high on Adrian Yañez, calling him his guy and predicting he will be champion by 2025. He praises Yañez's beautiful boxing, combinations, and power. He believes Yañez will find the timing and land the more impactful shots, possibly finishing inside the distance. He acknowledges that Yañez can be a slow starter but trusts his dog mentality.
Font has high output, a great jab, and good footwork, but his durability is questionable after losses to Aldo and Vera. Yañez is a crisp boxer with power, but this is his toughest test. Font's volume and jab could frustrate Yañez, and Font's cardio should hold up. However, if Font's chin is shot, Yañez could land a big shot. I lean Font by decision but with hesitation.
Paul likes Rob Font as a plus-money underdog. He questions Yañez's level of competition, noting his wins are over lower-tier fighters and his only step-up against Davey Grant was a close split decision. Paul highlights Font's elite striking volume, footwork, and jab, and notes that Font has gone five rounds with top bantamweights. He acknowledges Font's tendency to get knocked down but believes his volume and experience will overwhelm Yañez.
The MMA Guru picks Adrian Yañez to win by decision. He expects Font to have success early with his jab and takedowns, but Yañez will weather the storm and start finding his range. He predicts Yañez will hurt Font badly in rounds two and three, with moments of near-finishes, but Font will survive to the final bell. He compares it to a Marlon Vera-esque performance.
Zane picks Yañez because Font's defensive issues are severe: he gets hit cleanly in every fight and has been knocked down repeatedly. Yañez is a sharp counter puncher who will exploit Font's tendency to leave himself open after throwing the right hand. Zane acknowledges that Yañez may start slow and lose the first round, but he expects Yañez to figure out Font's rhythm and land big shots. He also notes that Font's chin is a major concern, as even if Yañez fades, he only needs one clean shot to change the fight.
Totals
| Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 0 | 271 of 516 | 52% | 273 of 520 | 1 of 2 | 50% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Rob Font | 3 | 159 of 283 | 56% | 167 of 291 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 2:05 |
Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | KD | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Total Str. | TD | TD % | Sub. Att | Rev. | Ctrl |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 57 of 100 | 57% | 57 of 100 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 26 of 46 | 56% | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 51 of 97 | 52% | 51 of 97 | 0 of 1 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 27 of 52 | 51% | 30 of 55 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:23 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 71 of 123 | 57% | 71 of 123 | 1 of 1 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0:18 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 37 of 71 | 52% | 39 of 73 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:33 | |
| 4 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 42 of 89 | 47% | 44 of 93 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 1 | 36 of 56 | 64% | 39 of 59 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 1:09 | |
| 5 | Marlon Vera | 0 | 50 of 107 | 46% | 50 of 107 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
| Rob Font | 0 | 33 of 58 | 56% | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | --- | 0 | 0 | 0:00 |
Significant Strikes
| Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marlon Vera | 271 of 516 | 52% | 199 of 436 | 48 of 56 | 24 of 24 | 256 of 496 | 15 of 20 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 159 of 283 | 56% | 95 of 205 | 22 of 31 | 42 of 47 | 133 of 246 | 4 of 4 | 22 of 33 |
Significant Strikes Per Round
| Rd | Fighter | Sig. Str. | Sig. Str. % | Head | Body | Leg | Distance | Clinch | Ground |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Marlon Vera | 57 of 100 | 57% | 38 of 81 | 14 of 14 | 5 of 5 | 52 of 92 | 5 of 8 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 26 of 46 | 56% | 5 of 21 | 7 of 10 | 14 of 15 | 26 of 46 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 | |
| 2 | Marlon Vera | 51 of 97 | 52% | 36 of 81 | 9 of 10 | 6 of 6 | 48 of 93 | 3 of 4 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 27 of 52 | 51% | 17 of 40 | 4 of 5 | 6 of 7 | 22 of 43 | 0 of 0 | 5 of 9 | |
| 3 | Marlon Vera | 71 of 123 | 57% | 53 of 102 | 12 of 15 | 6 of 6 | 70 of 121 | 1 of 2 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 37 of 71 | 52% | 29 of 59 | 4 of 7 | 4 of 5 | 25 of 55 | 2 of 2 | 10 of 14 | |
| 4 | Marlon Vera | 42 of 89 | 47% | 33 of 78 | 5 of 7 | 4 of 4 | 39 of 86 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 36 of 56 | 64% | 20 of 36 | 3 of 5 | 13 of 15 | 27 of 44 | 2 of 2 | 7 of 10 | |
| 5 | Marlon Vera | 50 of 107 | 46% | 39 of 94 | 8 of 10 | 3 of 3 | 47 of 104 | 3 of 3 | 0 of 0 |
| Rob Font | 33 of 58 | 56% | 24 of 49 | 4 of 4 | 5 of 5 | 33 of 58 | 0 of 0 | 0 of 0 |
Play-by-Play
View on SherdogRound 1
We have now reached the main event, which takes place in a catchweight instead of a standard weight category as Font (19-5, 9-4 UFC) missed weight by 2.5 pounds ahead of his marque pairing against “Chito” Vera (18-7-1, 12-6 UFC). These two are the only ranked competitors that set foot in the cage this evening, but a win for Font would arguably mean less as he could not reach the bantamweight limit. Apologetic for this error, Font offers a glove touch as the two stand before gold-standard referee Jason Herzog, and Vera accepts it with a smile as he is amped up for his first UFC main event. Vera is crouched over in his corner when the fight begins, and Font does a tour of the cage while waiting for him to stand up. Vera does do so, and he throws a front kick to start things off. Font starts up with his staple jabs, and Vera replies with a calf kick. Font subsequently counters it with an overhand right, and they back off to kick one another in the legs. Font strings together a pair of one-twos, and Vera responds with a thudding body kick to the guard. Font continues to work the jab, and he chains a solid boxing combination together that knock Vera back. A big uppercut from Font reddens the nose, and he knees Vera in the chin when Vera bends over. Vera gets a little space and lets loose with low kicks, and Font continues peppering him with jabs. Font steps in with an elbow, and Vera responds with a powerful leg kick. Vera closes in and pins several uppercuts on the chin before Vera pushes off and reaches out with a front kick that is just shy of the face. Font rips the body, and when Vera advances, he goes after another crisp uppercut. Font tattoos Vera’s heavily tattooed head and body with jabs, and Vera slips a couple of punches and counters with a front kick. Font nails his man with an uppercut again, and Vera staggers back and gathers himself to absorb a few punches high and low. Font put three punches together as Vera guards up and circles on the outside, and he commits to his calf kick when Font gives him a moment to breathe. Font absorbs another leg kick, and he loads up on punches when Vera tries to kick his lead calf once more. Font walks into a punch, and he blocks a loud body kick that impacts off his arms. Font winds up with an uppercut after a jab, intercepting Vera coming in. The uppercut continues to find its home as Font targets it repeatedly, and Vera is not able to read it and tries to block them, but they still get through. Vera kicks the midsection, and when he comes in, Font meets him with a knee and his own low kick, The first round ends, and the bantamweights tensely stare down one another after the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Font
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Font
Round 2
The fighters meet in the middle to start off the second round, and they bounce closer together only to back off before engaging. Font jabs, follows it with a right and connects with a clean left to back Vera up. Font puts the ball of his foot on Vera’s chest, and he steps in with a hacking elbow that glances off Vera’s head. Vera fires off a front kick, and Font catches it and pushes Vera back. Vera, with his leg in the air, jumps with his other to kick Font a few times. Font delivers a big elbow that make Vera mockingly show that he is hurt, and he subsequently spins with a back kick to the body. Font reels from the kick and has to rebound off the fence, and Vera kicks the body again. Vera is able to counter a few punches, and Font begins to chain jabs into punches effectively as Vera’s face starts to turn red. “Chito” rips the body to make Font’s guard drop, and Font kicks his leg as a result. Vera loads up on a heavier one of his own, and Vera blocks an oncoming salvo of punches. Font has a few punches blocked, and Vera sticks his tongue out at him. As he does, a piston-like jab connects and knocks a surprised Vera back. Vera walks into another jab as Vera walks him down, but Vera does get off a leg kick. Font throws five punches in a row, and a huge body kick from Vera bends Font over. Font recovers and leans on his boxing to back Vera up, but “Chito” rallies and kicks him in the gut with a front kick. Vera works the leg with a kick, and Font strides through it to land a few punches and ends a combination with a solid left hand. Font steps through a series of punches with a knee up the middle, and Vera ricochets off the fence and marches his man down. Font kicks high, and the kick glances off the shoulder. Font carries on jabbing, and he works a right hand to the body in the midst of a punching chain. Vera walks him down and cracks him with a left hand, and Font is rocked badly and drops to his knees. Font instinctively goes after a single, and Vera bowls him over and unloads several brutal elbows. Font hangs on to the bell, and he springs right back up and goes to his corner.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 3
“Chito” is so fired up to start off the round, he is physically pulled back a few times by Herzog. Despite this aggressive intention, Font is the one who strikes first, jabbing his way in before shooting for a takedown. Vera scrambles and gets to his knees when dragged down, and he turns his opponent around to the fence and starts working the sides with punches and knees. Font pushes off with an elbow to break, and Vera puts everything into a head kick. Even with the kick blocked, it still has enough impact to shake Font. Font is quick to gather his thoughts and start working his uppercut, and Vera takes a front kick that goes low on the cup. Vera shrugs at Herzog when Herzog asks if he is alright, and the fight continues as they trade powerful blows. A thumping leg kick from the Ecuadorian gives Font some pause, and Font responds with a body kick. Vera steps through with a left hand, and he just misses a straight left hand across the bow. Font plants several punches on the guard, doing enough to take Vera’s focus away so he can drill a kick to the gut. Vera absorbs a leg kick, and Vera allows this so he can counter with a left hand that knocks Font back a few steps. The Bostonian marches forward, jabbing effectively and just getting up a block when a high kick aims at it. Vera unloads with a right hand, and Font greets him with several punches in a line of blows. Vera takes a clean elbow on the side of the head and barely flinches, and he kicks Font in the side. Font responds with a few punches to the body, leading Vera to tie him up. “Chito” separates and starts working kicks to the leg and side, and he slips a punch to throw one back. Font absorbs four flush punches without batting an eye, and he counters Font with a left to the midsection and a kick to the same spot. Font puts several punches together as Vera bounces off, and he splits the guard with a left. Font connects with a big left to the body, and Vera lifts up a knee that knocks Font off of his feet. Font climbs back up and wobbles back, only for Vera to chase him down and elbow him several more times. Herzog asks Font to keep fighting and moving, and Vera unleashes a fury of elbows right to the horn.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 4
Font has gathered his thoughts between rounds, and even with swelling and damage on his face from the concussive blows, he is ready to continue and starts off with jabs. Vera kicks the body, and he gets knocked back with a series of punches. Vera fights through the oncoming blows to give back his own, and he jumps in the air with a knee that is barely blocked in time. They trade one after the other, with Font preferring to touch while Vera is loading up on strikes. Font pins three uppercuts right on the chin, and he follows it with a one-two as chants for “’Chito’” rain down in the building. Font chases him down and uploads, and Vera ties him up and gets kneed. Vera elbows on the break to cut Font, but the Boston native does not even register this as he stalks Vera down. Font considers a takedown before bailing on it to let his boxing speak for himself. Vera rolls with the strikes that come at him, dancing back and sliding out of the way. Vera gets in a left, and Font is a bloody mess but no less active. Font opens up with jabs and one-twos, and Vera is circling away as his volume has diminished. Vera winds up with a side kick that connects as flush as it could, knocking Font back and down to the mat. Vera goes after him to try to finish him, and he gets kicked off as Font lays on his back aiming upkicks. Vera kicks the leg from above, while Font is still getting his wits about him. Vera is letting his foe of the hook, and eventually Herzog intervenes to stand Font up. Font walks through a spinning heel kick that soars at him to throw hands, and Vera spams another that similarly is inaccurate. Font bounces around, and he absorbs a pushing kick to his knee. Vera winds up on a body kick, and the fourth round ends. Vera walks back to his corner, laughing all the way.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera
Round 5
Battered and bruised, swollen and sore, Font is hanging in there and cleared to continue. Vera is excited to reach the fifth round in this contest, and he walks straight into a left to the body when they begin to fight. Font has his jab reach out, and he misses an overhand right as Vera slides out of harm’s way. Font comes after him and elbows him on top of the head, and Vera looks at him quizzically and slaps Font in the face with his open hand like a Diaz brother. Font is riled up, and he lands six heavy punches that knock Vera back up to the wall. Vera scores a single leg kick, and he backs away as Font walks him down. Font keeps his hands busy, and he takes a solid jab on the face. Vera tries to back him off with a side kick, and Font is not slowing as he again backs Vera to the wire with his punches. They trade low kicks, and start to put power into their punches. Vera loads up as Font stalks after him, and he has a body kick that stuns Font for a second. Like a Terminator, Font keeps going, and a front kick blasts him in the face. Font strings several punches together despite the serious level of damage on his face, and he makes Vera take a step back when he lands a front kick. Vera counters Font coming in with a left, and he smacks Font with a left as Font leads into a combination. “Chito” snaps out a jab that makes Font shake his hands out, and he kicks the lead leg a pair of times. Font gets hurt from a punch, causing him to turn around for a second, and Vera begins to showboat and point. Font steels himself and powers ahead, chasing Vera around and absorbing punches while attacking. Font nails Vera with an uppercut, leading Vera into a dance as Vera signals that he is fine. Font does not fall for anything, and instead splits the guard with a right hand. Font bites down on his mouthpiece and throws hands to the head and body, and Vera aims another standing hook kick slash side kick that cracks into Font’s dome. Font is rattled once more from the powerful strike, and he wobbles back to the wall to try to recover for the waning seconds. Instead of going for a finish, Vera walks away to celebrate, pointing in the air and even turning his back on Font at one point. Font cannot reach him as time elapses, and this thriller comes to an end. Both bantamweights raise their stock after 25 minutes of bloody, chaotic battle. An emotional Vera thanks his team and invites his family into the cage after the fight, and declares that he will be a world champion and will bring the belt back to his home country of Ecuador. With that, the uneven ESPN card wraps up, with the night ending in style after that five-rounder in the books. Next week, the UFC will travel to Arizona, with a fantastic pay-per-view offering bringing a pair of highly anticipated title fights and some other great scraps like Michael Chandler vs. Tony Ferguson. We will be there for it, and we hope you are too.
Sherdog Scores
Jay Pettry scores the round: 10-9 Font (48-47 Vera)
Mike Sloan scores the round: 10-9 Font (48-47 Vera)
Tristen Critchfield scores the round: 10-9 Vera (49-46 Vera)
The Official Result
Marlon Vera def. Rob Font via Unanimous Decision (48-47, 49-46, 49-46)
Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his cleaner boxing and composed style. He believes Font's accuracy and volume will mirror his success against Jose Aldo, but this time Font will get the win. He notes Vera's ability to make fights ugly and his iron chin, but thinks Font is too well-rounded to get caught in a brawl. He loves the -150 odds and plans a moneyline bet on Font.
Big Brady picks Marlon Vera as a dog, citing Vera's cardio advantage in a five-round fight and his ability to grow into the fight. He notes that Vera lands bigger shots and has a ground game advantage, while Font may win the first round but will fade. Brady predicts a late finish, possibly by submission, as the damage accumulates.
Cody picks Marlon Vera as a live underdog, citing Vera's slow-starting but strong-finishing style. He believes Vera can lose the first couple rounds but come on strong late, similar to his fight against Frankie Edgar. Cody notes Vera's grappling advantage and ability to take Font down, as Font gave up takedowns to Cody Garbrandt. He suggests live betting Vera after the first round for better odds.
Daniel Levi picks Marlon Vera, citing his durability and ability to take over in later rounds. He notes that Vera's fights often start in round three, where he looks world-class, and that his cardio from running 13 miles a day will be a factor in a five-round fight. Levi acknowledges Rob Font's superior boxing but believes Vera can create chaos and make it a dirty fight, similar to the Pedro Munoz blueprint. He is concerned about Vera eating shots early but trusts his recovery. He took two units at +130.
The host picks Rob Font, citing his superior output and jab. He believes Font's volume and technical striking will outwork Vera over five rounds, especially since Vera is a slow starter. He notes Font's reach advantage and ability to stay on the outside, and doubts Vera has one-punch knockout power to change the fight. He expects a decision win for Font.
Paul leans towards Rob Font based on volume and activity, noting Font's jab and boxing should outwork Vera over five rounds. He acknowledges Vera's power in kicks and potential grappling edge but doesn't trust Vera's wrestling to secure takedowns. Paul is concerned about Font's history of getting knocked down, as seen against Jose Aldo, which could cost him rounds. He hasn't bet the fight yet but sides with the numbers.
The Guru picks Marlon Vera as an underdog, citing Vera's size and physicality as key advantages. He believes Rob Font struggles against pressure and big opponents who can muscle him around. The Guru predicts Font will win the first two rounds, but Vera will take over in the later rounds, eventually securing a submission via d'arce choke in round four or five. He notes Vera's youth (29) and ability to absorb damage, while questioning Font's power after making Cody Garbrandt's chin look okay.
Expert Picks (8)
Angelo picks Rob Font, citing his volume, jab, and youth. He notes Aldo looked great against Munoz but Font's non-stop jab and five-round pace could be key. Angelo is worried about Aldo's leg kicks but goes with Font.
Big Brady picks Rob Font to win by decision, but with low confidence and says he will not bet the main event. He notes Font's high volume (5.58 sig strikes/min) and cardio advantage, and that Aldo has slowed down in past fights. He also points out that Aldo hasn't attempted a takedown since 2014, despite Font's poor takedown defense (53%). Brady thinks the line should be closer and would consider Aldo as a dog if betting. He expects a close fight with Font's volume being key.
Cody is tempted by the underdog price on Aldo, noting his career resurgence against Pedro Munoz. He argues that Aldo's losses are to elite fighters like Volkanovski and Yan, while Font's wins are over aging or chinny opponents. Cody believes Aldo's power and leg kicks could counter Font's jab, and that Aldo might get a close decision in Vegas. However, he acknowledges Aldo's cardio issues in championship rounds and is only slightly leaning towards him.
Daniel Levi picks José Aldo to win a decision, citing Aldo's improved output in recent fights, particularly the Munoz fight where he threw more in round three than earlier rounds. He believes Aldo has more weapons, including body work and leg kicks, and that Aldo's experience and ability to sneak through three rounds will be key. He acknowledges Rob Font's dangerous jab but thinks Aldo can overcome it.
Jacob picks José Aldo, citing his leg kicks, level changes, and veteran savvy. He notes Aldo worked with boxers to improve head movement and should mix in takedowns to slow Font's jab. Jacob is reluctant but thinks Aldo can win.
I lean Font. He has good cardio and volume, and he should be able to increase his output in the later rounds. Aldo has not won a five-round fight in years and tends to slow down. However, Aldo is still dangerous with his counters and body work. I think Font wins a decision, but I'm not confident enough to bet him. The decision prop at plus 195 is the play if you like Font.
Paul believes Rob Font is the rightful favorite due to his volume striking and jab. He thinks Font will outwork Aldo over five rounds, especially if Aldo doesn't land early damaging shots. Paul notes that Font's jab was effective against Cody Garbrandt and expects similar success here. He is confident in Font's ability to maintain pace and outland Aldo.
The MMA Guru picks José Aldo to win by majority decision (48-47). He expects Aldo to win the first three rounds with superior speed, body shots, and leg kicks. Font will rally in the fourth and fifth, pressuring and landing combinations, but Aldo's early work will secure the win. One judge may give a 10-8 fifth round to Font, but Aldo still wins.
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